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1994-95 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

La Fiorita

6.15 points above expected

23 points · 16.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Juvenes

6.58 points below expected

8 points · 14.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 18 12 2 4 26 36 15 +21 23.66 +2.34
2 Cosmos 18 9 6 3 24 29 20 +9 19.71 +4.29
3 Domagnano 18 9 5 4 23 29 17 +12 21.95 +1.05
4 La Fiorita 18 10 3 5 23 24 25 -1 16.85 +6.15
5 Murata 18 8 6 4 22 22 16 +6 17.96 +4.04
6 Cailungo 18 4 6 8 14 18 26 -8 16.29 -2.29
7 Virtus 18 3 8 7 14 12 20 -8 13.14 +0.86
8 Faetano 18 5 3 10 13 26 24 +2 18.78 -5.78
9 Libertas 18 4 5 9 13 25 32 -7 17.08 -4.08
10 Juvenes 18 2 4 12 8 18 44 -26 14.58 -6.58

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 La Fiorita 23 16.85 +6.15
2 Cosmos 24 19.71 +4.29
3 Murata 22 17.96 +4.04
4 Tre Fiori 26 23.66 +2.34
5 Domagnano 23 21.95 +1.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Juvenes 8 14.58 -6.58
2 Faetano 13 18.78 -5.78
3 Libertas 13 17.08 -4.08
4 Cailungo 14 16.29 -2.29
5 Virtus 14 13.14 +0.86

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tre Fiori 1663 26 +19 9 7.0 +2.0
Cosmos 1533 24 -14 4 5.3 -1.3
Domagnano 1605 23 +8 6 6.1 -0.1
La Fiorita 1436 23 -97 1 4.1 -3.1
Murata 1546 22 +44 6 5.4 +0.6
Cailungo 1453 14 +20 7 4.8 +2.2
Virtus 1405 14 -2 4 4.1 -0.1
Libertas 1499 13 +39 6 5.3 +0.7
Faetano 1497 13 -8 4 4.7 -0.7
Juvenes 1361 8 -9 3 3.2 -0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE JUV LF LIB MUR TF VIR
Cailungo —
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.45
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
2.96
1-1-0
2.38
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
1.56
0-2-0
3.03
Cosmos
2-0-0
3.18
 —
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.71
1-1-0
3.47
1-1-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.36
0-2-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.70
Domagnano
1-0-1
3.49
1-0-1
3.10
 —
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.70
0-1-1
3.44
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
3.77
Faetano
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.51
 —
1-0-1
3.77
0-0-2
2.76
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
1.71
0-1-1
3.72
Juvenes
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
1.70
 —
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.11
0-0-2
1.18
1-1-0
3.16
La Fiorita
2-0-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.15
2-0-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.79
 —
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.76
2-0-0
3.28
Libertas
0-1-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.09
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.37
 —
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.22
0-1-1
3.23
Murata
1-1-0
2.96
0-2-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.02
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.70
 —
0-0-2
2.06
1-1-0
3.55
Tre Fiori
1-1-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.32
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
3.23
2-0-0
3.40
 —
1-0-1
4.02
Virtus
0-2-0
2.42
0-1-1
1.77
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
1.75
0-1-1
2.29
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
2.22
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-1
1.47
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.46 +6.2
Allowed 0.63 -5.6
Differential 0.78 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%9.44%3.33%4.44%1.11%0.56%31.11%
19.44%12.22%10.00%1.67%0.56%1.11%35.00%
23.33%10.00%1.11%2.22%—1.67%18.33%
34.44%1.67%2.22%1.11%—0.56%10.00%
41.11%0.56%————1.67%
5+0.56%1.11%1.67%0.56%——3.89%
Total31.11%35.00%18.33%10.00%1.67%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.44 2.00
CV 1.09 1.09 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
111.11%22.22%16.67%—5.56%—55.56%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.44 -0.44
SD 0.69 1.20 1.20
CV 0.69 0.83 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.14 1.08 1.54
CV 0.71 0.97 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
116.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.88 1.06 1.64
CV 1.17 1.12 —
Max 8 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1—11.11%33.33%———44.44%
2—5.56%————5.56%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%50.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.33 +0.11
SD 1.58 0.77 1.71
CV 1.09 0.58 —
Max 5 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
1—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.44 -1.44
SD 1.08 2.18 1.89
CV 1.08 0.89 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
122.22%16.67%————38.89%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.39 -0.06
SD 1.33 1.75 2.51
CV 1.00 1.26 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%——50.00%
1—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
2—5.56%———11.11%16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%5.56%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.78 -0.39
SD 1.91 1.93 2.68
CV 1.38 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%22.22%————27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total44.44%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.89 +0.33
SD 1.66 1.13 2.22
CV 1.36 1.27 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
122.22%11.11%16.67%———50.00%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.83 +1.17
SD 1.68 0.86 1.89
CV 0.84 1.03 —
Max 7 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%16.67%—5.56%——50.00%
15.56%16.67%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%5.56%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.11 -0.44
SD 0.77 1.37 1.38
CV 1.15 1.23 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Fiori 1666 26 23.66 +2.34 81.0% 15 19 22 24 26 29 30
Domagnano 1560 23 21.95 +1.05 68.0% 13 17 19 22 24 28 28
Murata 1546 22 17.96 +4.04 91.0% 9 11 16 18 20 24 27
Cosmos 1527 24 19.71 +4.29 93.0% 11 14 18 20 22 25 28
Libertas 1499 13 17.08 -4.08 16.0% 8 11 15 17 19 23 26
Faetano 1497 13 18.78 -5.78 6.0% 11 13 16 19 21 24 26
La Fiorita 1485 23 16.85 +6.15 97.0% 8 10 14 17 20 23 25
Cailungo 1453 14 16.29 -2.29 32.0% 7 11 14 16 19 22 25
Virtus 1405 14 13.14 +0.86 66.0% 4 9 11 13 16 18 22
Juvenes 1361 8 14.58 -6.58 2.0% 5 9 12 15 17 20 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Strong Edge
43.33%26.67%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
201 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Tre Fiori, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.73 * Some Luck: 2.73 to 4.09 * Lucky: 4.09 to 5.45 * Wild Swing: 5.45 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.43 * Close: 1.43 to 2.15 * Off: 2.15 to 2.87 * Way Off: 2.87 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.22 points
Lucky
03.419
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.794
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
La Fiorita
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.00%
Juvenes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 91.53
1.71
Moderate Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
64%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.02
Weak Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.14
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.70
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

La Fiorita 3
Cosmos 2

Second Round

La Fiorita 2
Domagnano 0

Quarterfinals

Cosmos 4
Domagnano 2
Tre Fiori 0
La Fiorita 0

Semifinals

La Fiorita 1
Cosmos 0

Sim: 1.0%

Finals

Tre Fiori 1
La Fiorita 0

Sim: 2.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Tre Fiori50.00%24.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Cosmos5.00%14.00%19.00%19.00%14.00%11.00%9.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%
Domagnano23.00%27.00%21.00%9.00%12.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%—1.00%
La Fiorita5.00%7.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%15.00%9.00%13.00%12.00%11.00%
Murata6.00%9.00%11.00%10.00%16.00%18.00%14.00%5.00%6.00%5.00%
Cailungo4.00%—6.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%21.00%18.00%16.00%9.00%
Virtus——2.00%—3.00%9.00%8.00%15.00%25.00%38.00%
Faetano5.00%11.00%15.00%21.00%12.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%
Libertas2.00%8.00%8.00%6.00%11.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%
Juvenes——1.00%8.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%21.00%20.00%24.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Domagnano 19.00% 1.00%
Tre Fiori 7.00% 1.00%
Cosmos 37.00% 6.00%
Faetano 42.00% 6.00%
Murata 53.00% 11.00%
Libertas 56.00% 20.00%
La Fiorita 48.00% 23.00%
Cailungo 56.00% 25.00%
Juvenes 47.00% 44.00%
Virtus 35.00% 63.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenesLa FioritaLibertasMurataTre FioriVirtus
Cailungo66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%5.00%
Cosmos33.3%3.00%40.0%10.00%75.0%12.00%33.3%3.00%66.7%3.00%25.0%8.00%14.3%14.00%
Domagnano50.0%2.00%60.0%10.00%53.8%13.00%33.3%3.00%83.3%6.00%80.0%5.00%75.0%8.00%63.3%30.00%100.0%1.00%
Faetano50.0%2.00%25.0%12.00%46.2%13.00%66.7%3.00%75.0%4.00%28.6%7.00%35.7%14.00%0.0%1.00%
Juvenes66.7%3.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
La Fiorita0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%16.7%6.00%33.3%3.00%66.7%3.00%25.0%4.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%30.0%10.00%
Murata100.0%2.00%75.0%8.00%25.0%8.00%71.4%7.00%75.0%4.00%27.3%11.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%5.00%85.7%14.00%36.7%30.00%64.3%14.00%50.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%70.0%10.00%72.7%11.00%100.0%2.00%
Virtus0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenesLa FioritaLibertasMurataTre FioriVirtus
Cailungo0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Cosmos100.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%10.0%10.00%
Domagnano100.0%3.00%80.0%5.00%33.3%6.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%77.8%9.00%45.5%22.00%
Faetano100.0%2.00%66.7%6.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%40.0%10.00%
Juvenes0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%
La Fiorita0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%
Libertas100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Murata50.0%2.00%22.2%9.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%
Tre Fiori50.0%2.00%90.0%10.00%54.5%22.00%60.0%10.00%66.7%3.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%6.00%
Virtus0.0%1.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1994-10-01 Faetano W 2-156.1 1495 1525 41.73% 27.62% 30.66%+0.08 +8.6 2
1994-10-01 @ Cailungo L 1-256.1 1525 1495 30.66% 27.62% 41.73%-0.08 -8.6 0
1994-10-01 Cosmos L 1-360.6 1555 1482 53.91% 27.02% 19.07%+0.60 -23.3 0
1994-10-01 @ Domagnano W 3-160.6 1482 1555 19.07% 27.02% 53.91%-0.60 +23.3 2
1994-10-01 La Fiorita D 1-159.8 1509 1429 54.61% 26.95% 18.45%+0.63 -2.1 1
1994-10-01 @ Juvenes D 1-159.8 1429 1509 18.45% 26.95% 54.61%-0.63 +2.2 1
1994-10-01 Libertas W 1-051.1 1492 1521 41.98% 27.61% 30.41%+0.09 +9.1 2
1994-10-01 @ Murata L 0-151.1 1521 1492 30.41% 27.61% 41.98%-0.09 -9.1 0
1994-10-01 Tre Fiori L 1-252.8 1412 1581 23.71% 26.99% 49.30%-0.61 -7.0 0
1994-10-01 @ Virtus W 2-152.8 1581 1412 49.30% 26.99% 23.71%+0.61 +7.0 2
1994-10-08 Juvenes W 3-259.0 1531 1507 48.60% 27.41% 23.99%+0.35 +6.8 2
1994-10-08 @ Domagnano L 2-359.0 1507 1531 23.99% 27.41% 48.60%-0.35 -6.8 1
1994-10-08 Cosmos L 1-261.0 1516 1505 47.01% 27.48% 25.51%+0.29 -11.9 0
1994-10-08 @ Faetano W 2-161.0 1505 1516 25.51% 27.48% 47.01%-0.29 +11.9 4
1994-10-08 Cailungo W 3-259.0 1431 1504 35.86% 27.60% 36.54%-0.13 +9.3 3
1994-10-08 @ La Fiorita L 2-359.0 1504 1431 36.54% 27.60% 35.86%+0.13 -9.3 2
1994-10-08 Virtus L 0-155.4 1512 1405 57.16% 26.64% 16.20%+0.76 -15.1 0
1994-10-08 @ Libertas W 1-055.4 1405 1512 16.20% 26.64% 57.16%-0.76 +15.1 2
1994-10-08 Tre Fiori L 0-349.8 1502 1588 33.91% 27.56% 38.53%-0.20 -26.9 2
1994-10-08 @ Murata W 3-049.8 1588 1502 38.53% 27.56% 33.91%+0.20 +26.9 4
1994-10-15 Tre Fiori W 2-162.7 1517 1615 32.36% 27.52% 40.12%-0.25 +10.5 6
1994-10-15 @ Cosmos L 1-262.7 1615 1517 40.12% 27.52% 32.36%+0.25 -10.5 4
1994-10-15 Cailungo W 2-153.8 1538 1494 50.80% 27.28% 21.92%+0.45 +6.6 4
1994-10-15 @ Domagnano L 1-253.8 1494 1538 21.92% 27.28% 50.80%-0.45 -6.6 2
1994-10-15 Libertas W 5-251.2 1504 1496 46.61% 27.50% 25.89%+0.27 +16.0 2
1994-10-15 @ Faetano L 2-551.2 1496 1504 25.89% 27.50% 46.61%-0.27 -16.0 0
1994-10-15 Murata W 1-047.8 1441 1475 41.17% 27.62% 31.21%+0.06 +9.2 5
1994-10-15 @ La Fiorita L 0-147.8 1475 1441 31.21% 27.62% 41.17%-0.06 -9.2 2
1994-10-15 Juvenes D 0-055.0 1420 1500 34.80% 27.58% 37.62%-0.17 +0.2 3
1994-10-15 @ Virtus D 0-055.0 1500 1420 37.62% 27.58% 34.80%+0.17 -0.2 2
1994-10-22 Faetano L 0-352.1 1527 1520 46.49% 27.50% 26.01%+0.27 -34.3 6
1994-10-22 @ Cosmos W 3-052.1 1520 1527 26.01% 27.50% 46.49%-0.27 +34.3 4
1994-10-22 Libertas L 1-751.6 1500 1480 47.99% 27.44% 24.57%+0.33 -55.6 2
1994-10-22 @ Juvenes W 7-151.6 1480 1500 24.57% 27.44% 47.99%-0.33 +55.6 2
1994-10-22 Tre Fiori W 2-162.3 1450 1604 25.29% 27.13% 47.58%-0.54 +12.0 7
1994-10-22 @ La Fiorita L 1-262.3 1604 1450 47.58% 27.13% 25.29%+0.54 -12.0 4
1994-10-22 Cailungo W 2-153.3 1465 1488 42.77% 27.60% 29.63%+0.12 +8.4 4
1994-10-22 @ Murata L 1-253.3 1488 1465 29.63% 27.60% 42.77%-0.12 -8.4 2
1994-10-22 Domagnano L 0-148.8 1420 1545 28.88% 27.37% 43.75%-0.39 -8.7 3
1994-10-22 @ Virtus W 1-048.8 1545 1420 43.75% 27.37% 28.88%+0.39 +8.7 6
1994-10-29 Cailungo W 2-152.6 1493 1479 47.33% 27.47% 25.20%+0.30 +7.4 8
1994-10-29 @ Cosmos L 1-252.6 1479 1493 25.20% 27.47% 47.33%-0.30 -7.4 2
1994-10-29 Domagnano L 0-159.1 1555 1553 45.79% 27.53% 26.68%+0.24 -12.4 4
1994-10-29 @ Faetano W 1-059.1 1553 1555 26.68% 27.53% 45.79%-0.24 +12.4 8
1994-10-29 Juvenes W 2-042.5 1474 1444 49.19% 27.38% 23.43%+0.38 +14.0 6
1994-10-29 @ Murata L 0-242.5 1444 1474 23.43% 27.38% 49.19%-0.38 -14.0 2
1994-10-29 Libertas W 3-047.0 1592 1536 52.14% 27.18% 20.68%+0.51 +18.4 6
1994-10-29 @ Tre Fiori L 0-347.0 1536 1592 20.68% 27.18% 52.14%-0.51 -18.4 2
1994-10-29 La Fiorita L 1-546.4 1412 1462 38.99% 27.63% 33.38%-0.02 -32.4 3
1994-10-29 @ Virtus W 5-146.4 1462 1412 33.38% 27.63% 38.99%+0.02 +32.4 9
1994-11-05 Libertas W 1-051.0 1472 1518 39.58% 27.63% 32.79%+0.00 +9.6 4
1994-11-05 @ Cailungo L 0-151.0 1518 1472 32.79% 27.63% 39.58%+0.00 -9.6 2
1994-11-05 Murata L 1-262.7 1542 1488 51.99% 27.19% 20.82%+0.50 -13.0 4
1994-11-05 @ Faetano W 2-162.7 1488 1542 20.82% 27.19% 51.99%-0.50 +13.0 8
1994-11-05 Cosmos D 2-264.1 1430 1501 36.13% 27.60% 36.27%-0.12 +0.0 3
1994-11-05 @ Juvenes D 2-264.1 1501 1430 36.27% 27.60% 36.13%+0.12 -0.0 9
1994-11-05 Virtus W 1-041.5 1494 1379 57.93% 26.53% 15.54%+0.81 +5.3 11
1994-11-05 @ La Fiorita L 0-141.5 1379 1494 15.54% 26.53% 57.93%-0.81 -5.3 3
1994-11-05 Domagnano L 0-259.5 1610 1566 50.90% 27.27% 21.83%+0.46 -25.6 6
1994-11-05 @ Tre Fiori W 2-059.5 1566 1610 21.83% 27.27% 50.90%-0.46 +25.6 10
1994-11-12 La Fiorita W 3-044.4 1501 1499 45.76% 27.53% 26.71%+0.24 +22.5 11
1994-11-12 @ Cosmos L 0-344.4 1499 1501 26.71% 27.53% 45.76%-0.24 -22.5 11
1994-11-12 Cailungo W 3-043.2 1529 1481 51.26% 27.24% 21.49%+0.47 +19.0 6
1994-11-12 @ Faetano L 0-343.2 1481 1529 21.49% 27.24% 51.26%-0.47 -19.0 4
1994-11-12 Domagnano L 3-848.1 1430 1591 24.52% 27.07% 48.41%-0.57 -21.1 3
1994-11-12 @ Juvenes W 8-348.1 1591 1430 48.41% 27.07% 24.52%+0.57 +21.1 12
1994-11-12 Tre Fiori L 2-753.5 1508 1585 35.22% 27.59% 37.20%-0.15 -30.8 2
1994-11-12 @ Libertas W 7-253.5 1585 1508 37.20% 27.59% 35.22%+0.15 +30.8 8
1994-11-12 Murata D 1-157.6 1374 1501 28.56% 27.35% 44.09%-0.40 +0.9 4
1994-11-12 @ Virtus D 1-157.6 1501 1374 44.09% 27.35% 28.56%+0.40 -0.9 9
1994-11-19 La Fiorita L 0-152.4 1462 1477 43.77% 27.58% 28.65%+0.16 -11.9 4
1994-11-19 @ Cailungo W 1-052.4 1477 1462 28.65% 27.58% 43.77%-0.16 +11.9 13
1994-11-19 Virtus W 3-036.3 1523 1375 60.77% 26.05% 13.18%+0.97 +12.5 13
1994-11-19 @ Cosmos L 0-336.3 1375 1523 13.18% 26.05% 60.77%-0.97 -12.5 4
1994-11-19 Tre Fiori L 0-162.0 1612 1616 45.21% 27.55% 27.24%+0.22 -12.2 12
1994-11-19 @ Domagnano W 1-062.0 1616 1612 27.24% 27.55% 45.21%-0.22 +12.2 10
1994-11-19 Faetano L 2-549.8 1409 1548 27.05% 27.26% 45.69%-0.46 -16.5 3
1994-11-19 @ Juvenes W 5-249.8 1548 1409 45.69% 27.26% 27.05%+0.46 +16.5 8
1994-11-19 Murata D 0-057.0 1477 1500 42.69% 27.60% 29.70%+0.12 -0.8 3
1994-11-19 @ Libertas D 0-057.0 1500 1477 29.70% 27.60% 42.69%-0.12 +0.8 10
1994-11-26 Tre Fiori D 1-165.0 1451 1628 22.77% 26.90% 50.33%-0.65 +1.6 5
1994-11-26 @ Cailungo D 1-165.0 1628 1451 50.33% 26.90% 22.77%+0.65 -1.6 11
1994-11-26 Murata L 1-266.4 1600 1501 56.51% 26.73% 16.76%+0.73 -14.1 12
1994-11-26 @ Domagnano W 2-166.4 1501 1600 16.76% 26.73% 56.51%-0.73 +14.1 12
1994-11-26 Virtus W 3-250.1 1393 1362 49.26% 27.37% 23.37%+0.38 +6.6 5
1994-11-26 @ Juvenes L 2-350.1 1362 1393 23.37% 27.37% 49.26%-0.38 -6.6 4
1994-11-26 Libertas W 3-149.5 1489 1476 47.15% 27.48% 25.37%+0.29 +12.9 15
1994-11-26 @ La Fiorita L 1-349.5 1476 1489 25.37% 27.48% 47.15%-0.29 -12.9 3
1994-12-03 Libertas W 3-042.4 1586 1464 58.61% 26.43% 14.96%+0.84 +14.0 14
1994-12-03 @ Domagnano L 0-342.4 1464 1586 14.96% 26.43% 58.61%-0.84 -14.0 3
1994-12-03 Virtus L 0-254.5 1565 1356 65.26% 24.98% 9.76%+1.28 -32.3 8
1994-12-03 @ Faetano W 2-054.5 1356 1565 9.76% 24.98% 65.26%-1.28 +32.3 6
1994-12-03 Juvenes W 2-039.7 1502 1399 56.81% 26.69% 16.51%+0.74 +10.5 17
1994-12-03 @ La Fiorita L 0-239.7 1399 1502 16.51% 26.69% 56.81%-0.74 -10.5 5
1994-12-03 Cosmos D 1-163.8 1515 1536 42.96% 27.60% 29.44%+0.13 -0.8 13
1994-12-03 @ Murata D 1-163.8 1536 1515 29.44% 27.60% 42.96%-0.13 +0.8 14
1994-12-03 Cailungo W 4-146.5 1626 1452 62.78% 25.62% 11.59%+1.10 +9.4 13
1994-12-03 @ Tre Fiori L 1-446.5 1452 1626 11.59% 25.62% 62.78%-1.10 -9.4 5
1994-12-10 Faetano D 1-166.7 1600 1533 53.36% 27.07% 19.57%+0.57 -2.0 15
1994-12-10 @ Domagnano D 1-166.7 1533 1600 19.57% 27.07% 53.36%-0.57 +2.0 9
1994-12-10 Murata L 1-251.2 1389 1514 28.74% 27.36% 43.90%-0.39 -8.2 5
1994-12-10 @ Juvenes W 2-151.2 1514 1389 43.90% 27.36% 28.74%+0.39 +8.2 15
1994-12-10 Cosmos D 3-369.6 1450 1536 33.83% 27.56% 38.61%-0.20 +0.2 4
1994-12-10 @ Libertas D 3-369.6 1536 1450 38.61% 27.56% 33.83%+0.20 -0.2 15
1994-12-10 Virtus L 1-266.3 1636 1388 67.73% 24.20% 8.08%+1.47 -16.7 13
1994-12-10 @ Tre Fiori W 2-166.3 1388 1636 8.08% 24.20% 67.73%-1.47 +16.7 8
1995-03-01 Murata D 0-056.6 1443 1522 34.84% 27.58% 37.58%-0.16 +0.2 6
1995-03-01 @ Cailungo D 0-056.6 1522 1443 37.58% 27.58% 34.84%+0.16 -0.2 16
1995-03-01 La Fiorita L 0-157.7 1535 1512 48.33% 27.42% 24.25%+0.34 -13.0 9
1995-03-01 @ Faetano W 1-057.7 1512 1535 24.25% 27.42% 48.33%-0.34 +13.0 19
1995-03-01 Domagnano D 0-059.8 1450 1598 25.97% 27.18% 46.84%-0.51 +1.3 5
1995-03-01 @ Libertas D 0-059.8 1598 1450 46.84% 27.18% 25.97%+0.51 -1.3 16
1995-03-01 Juvenes W 2-040.1 1619 1381 67.16% 24.39% 8.45%+1.42 +5.6 15
1995-03-01 @ Tre Fiori L 0-240.1 1381 1619 8.45% 24.39% 67.16%-1.42 -5.6 5
1995-03-01 Cosmos D 0-055.8 1405 1536 28.00% 27.32% 44.68%-0.42 +1.0 9
1995-03-01 @ Virtus D 0-055.8 1536 1405 44.68% 27.32% 28.00%+0.42 -1.0 16
1995-03-08 Virtus D 1-156.9 1443 1406 50.05% 27.33% 22.62%+0.42 -1.6 7
1995-03-08 @ Cailungo D 1-156.9 1406 1443 22.62% 27.33% 50.05%-0.42 +1.6 10
1995-03-08 Juvenes W 1-041.5 1535 1375 61.72% 25.86% 12.42%+1.03 +4.3 18
1995-03-08 @ Cosmos L 0-141.5 1375 1535 12.42% 25.86% 61.72%-1.03 -4.3 5
1995-03-08 Domagnano D 1-166.2 1525 1597 35.96% 27.60% 36.44%-0.12 +0.0 20
1995-03-08 @ La Fiorita D 1-166.2 1597 1525 36.44% 27.60% 35.96%+0.12 -0.0 17
1995-03-08 Faetano W 2-156.0 1451 1522 36.11% 27.60% 36.29%-0.12 +9.7 7
1995-03-08 @ Libertas L 1-256.0 1522 1451 36.29% 27.60% 36.11%+0.12 -9.7 9
1995-03-08 Murata W 4-045.2 1625 1522 56.80% 26.69% 16.51%+0.74 +19.9 17
1995-03-08 @ Tre Fiori L 0-445.2 1522 1625 16.51% 26.69% 56.80%-0.74 -19.9 16
1995-03-15 Cosmos L 2-359.4 1441 1539 32.29% 27.51% 40.20%-0.26 -8.5 7
1995-03-15 @ Cailungo W 3-259.4 1539 1441 40.20% 27.51% 32.29%+0.26 +8.5 20
1995-03-15 Tre Fiori L 1-250.4 1371 1644 14.41% 25.51% 60.09%-1.13 -4.6 5
1995-03-15 @ Juvenes W 2-150.4 1644 1371 60.09% 25.51% 14.41%+1.13 +4.6 19
1995-03-15 Faetano W 2-155.1 1525 1512 47.26% 27.47% 25.26%+0.30 +7.4 22
1995-03-15 @ La Fiorita L 1-255.1 1512 1525 25.26% 27.47% 47.26%-0.30 -7.4 9
1995-03-15 Virtus W 1-043.2 1502 1407 56.08% 26.78% 17.14%+0.71 +5.7 18
1995-03-15 @ Murata L 0-143.2 1407 1502 17.14% 26.78% 56.08%-0.71 -5.8 10
1995-03-22 Juvenes W 1-040.9 1433 1366 53.29% 27.08% 19.63%+0.57 +6.4 9
1995-03-22 @ Cailungo L 0-140.9 1366 1433 19.63% 27.08% 53.29%-0.57 -6.4 5
1995-03-22 Libertas W 2-044.0 1548 1461 55.33% 26.87% 17.80%+0.67 +11.2 22
1995-03-22 @ Cosmos L 0-244.0 1461 1548 17.80% 26.87% 55.33%-0.67 -11.2 7
1995-03-22 Virtus D 0-058.5 1597 1402 64.30% 25.25% 10.46%+1.21 -3.8 18
1995-03-22 @ Domagnano D 0-058.5 1402 1597 10.46% 25.25% 64.30%-1.21 +3.8 11
1995-03-22 Faetano L 1-260.4 1508 1504 46.05% 27.52% 26.43%+0.25 -11.7 18
1995-03-22 @ Murata W 2-160.4 1504 1508 26.43% 27.52% 46.05%-0.25 +11.7 11
1995-03-22 La Fiorita W 1-051.8 1649 1533 58.07% 26.51% 15.42%+0.81 +5.2 21
1995-03-22 @ Tre Fiori L 0-151.8 1533 1649 15.42% 26.51% 58.07%-0.81 -5.2 22
1995-03-29 Cailungo D 0-051.5 1360 1439 34.80% 27.58% 37.62%-0.17 +0.2 6
1995-03-29 @ Juvenes D 0-051.5 1439 1360 37.62% 27.58% 34.80%+0.17 -0.2 10
1995-03-29 Cosmos D 1-165.1 1527 1559 41.51% 27.62% 30.88%+0.07 -0.6 23
1995-03-29 @ La Fiorita D 1-165.1 1559 1527 30.88% 27.62% 41.51%-0.07 +0.6 23
1995-03-29 Domagnano D 0-061.1 1496 1593 32.47% 27.52% 40.01%-0.25 +0.5 19
1995-03-29 @ Murata D 0-061.1 1593 1496 40.01% 27.52% 32.47%+0.25 -0.5 19
1995-03-29 Faetano W 1-050.9 1654 1516 59.94% 26.20% 13.86%+0.92 +4.8 23
1995-03-29 @ Tre Fiori L 0-150.9 1516 1654 13.86% 26.20% 59.94%-0.92 -4.8 11
1995-03-29 Libertas D 0-052.9 1405 1450 39.81% 27.63% 32.56%+0.01 -0.4 12
1995-03-29 @ Virtus D 0-052.9 1450 1405 32.56% 27.63% 39.81%-0.01 +0.4 8
1995-04-05 Domagnano W 2-161.4 1439 1592 25.40% 27.14% 47.46%-0.53 +12.0 12
1995-04-05 @ Cailungo L 1-261.4 1592 1439 47.46% 27.14% 25.40%+0.53 -12.0 19
1995-04-05 La Fiorita W 4-045.8 1450 1527 35.22% 27.59% 37.19%-0.15 +37.5 10
1995-04-05 @ Libertas L 0-445.8 1527 1450 37.19% 27.59% 35.22%+0.15 -37.5 23
1995-04-05 Cosmos W 1-053.1 1659 1560 56.51% 26.72% 16.76%+0.73 +5.6 25
1995-04-05 @ Tre Fiori L 0-153.1 1560 1659 16.76% 26.72% 56.51%-0.73 -5.6 23
1995-04-05 Faetano D 0-054.9 1405 1511 31.18% 27.47% 41.34%-0.30 +0.6 13
1995-04-05 @ Virtus D 0-054.9 1511 1405 41.34% 27.47% 31.18%+0.30 -0.6 12
1995-04-12 Murata D 0-059.9 1554 1497 52.28% 27.17% 20.55%+0.52 -2.1 24
1995-04-12 @ Cosmos D 0-059.9 1497 1554 20.55% 27.17% 52.28%-0.52 +2.1 20
1995-04-12 La Fiorita W 1-049.1 1580 1489 55.73% 26.82% 17.45%+0.69 +5.8 21
1995-04-12 @ Domagnano L 0-149.1 1489 1580 17.45% 26.82% 55.73%-0.69 -5.8 23
1995-04-12 Tre Fiori D 1-167.8 1511 1665 25.33% 27.13% 47.53%-0.54 +1.3 13
1995-04-12 @ Faetano D 1-167.8 1665 1511 47.53% 27.13% 25.33%+0.54 -1.3 26
1995-04-12 Juvenes W 3-035.3 1488 1360 59.07% 26.35% 14.58%+0.87 +13.7 12
1995-04-12 @ Libertas L 0-335.3 1360 1488 14.58% 26.35% 59.07%-0.87 -13.7 6
1995-04-12 Cailungo D 1-157.0 1406 1451 39.62% 27.63% 32.75%+0.01 -0.4 14
1995-04-12 @ Virtus D 1-157.0 1451 1406 32.75% 27.63% 39.62%-0.01 +0.4 13
1995-04-19 Domagnano L 1-360.4 1552 1586 41.14% 27.62% 31.24%+0.06 -18.5 24
1995-04-19 @ Cosmos W 3-160.4 1586 1552 31.24% 27.62% 41.14%-0.06 +18.5 23
1995-04-19 Juvenes L 1-259.4 1512 1346 62.16% 25.76% 12.08%+1.06 -15.4 13
1995-04-19 @ Faetano W 2-159.4 1346 1512 12.08% 25.76% 62.16%-1.06 +15.4 8
1995-04-19 Cailungo D 1-160.3 1501 1452 51.46% 27.23% 21.31%+0.48 -1.8 13
1995-04-19 @ Libertas D 1-160.3 1452 1501 21.31% 27.23% 51.46%-0.48 +1.8 14
1995-04-19 La Fiorita W 7-043.5 1499 1483 47.50% 27.46% 25.04%+0.31 +47.4 22
1995-04-19 @ Murata L 0-743.5 1483 1499 25.04% 27.46% 47.50%-0.31 -47.4 23

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1995-05-03 La Fiorita L 0-256.7 1605 1436 56.64% 26.43% 16.93%+0.84 -28.1 0-1
1995-05-03 @ Domagnano W 2-056.7 1436 1605 16.93% 26.43% 56.64%-0.84 +28.1 1-0
1995-05-10 Cosmos L 2-463.3 1577 1533 42.21% 27.55% 30.24%+0.22 -16.9 0-2
1995-05-10 @ Domagnano W 4-263.3 1533 1577 30.24% 27.55% 42.21%-0.22 +16.9 1-0
1995-05-10 La Fiorita D 0-062.8 1663 1464 59.42% 25.98% 14.60%+0.99 -3.1 0-0-1
1995-05-10 @ Tre Fiori D 0-062.8 1464 1663 14.60% 25.98% 59.42%-0.99 +3.1 1-0-1
1995-05-17 Cosmos W 1-056.3 1467 1550 25.36% 27.33% 47.31%-0.41 +12.7 2-0-1
1995-05-17 @ La Fiorita L 0-156.3 1550 1467 47.31% 27.33% 25.36%+0.41 -12.7 1-1
1995-05-24 La Fiorita W 1-050.8 1660 1480 57.73% 26.27% 16.00%+0.90 +5.4 1-0-1
1995-05-24 @ Tre Fiori L 0-150.8 1480 1660 16.00% 26.27% 57.73%-0.90 -5.4 2-1-1
1995-05-26 La Fiorita L 2-364.3 1538 1475 44.80% 27.46% 27.75%+0.31 -10.8 1-2
1995-05-26 @ Cosmos W 3-264.3 1475 1538 27.75% 27.46% 44.80%-0.31 +10.9 3-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1994-12-10 8.08% Virtus 1388 2 @ Tre Fiori 1636 1
2 1994-12-03 9.76% Virtus 1356 2 @ Faetano 1565 0
3 1995-04-19 12.08% Juvenes 1346 2 @ Faetano 1512 1
4 1994-10-08 16.20% Virtus 1405 1 @ Libertas 1512 0
5 1994-11-26 16.76% Murata 1501 2 @ Domagnano 1600 1
6 1995-05-03 * 16.93% La Fiorita 1436 2 @ Domagnano 1605 0
7 1994-10-01 19.07% Cosmos 1482 3 @ Domagnano 1555 1
8 1994-11-05 20.82% Murata 1488 2 @ Faetano 1542 1
9 1994-11-05 21.83% Domagnano 1566 2 @ Tre Fiori 1610 0
10 1995-03-01 24.25% La Fiorita 1512 1 @ Faetano 1535 0
11 1994-10-22 24.57% Libertas 1480 7 @ Juvenes 1500 1
12 1994-10-22 25.29% @ La Fiorita 1450 2 Tre Fiori 1604 1
13 1995-05-17 * 25.36% @ La Fiorita 1467 1 Cosmos 1550 0
14 1995-04-05 25.40% @ Cailungo 1439 2 Domagnano 1592 1
15 1994-10-08 25.51% Cosmos 1505 2 @ Faetano 1516 1
16 1994-10-22 26.01% Faetano 1520 3 @ Cosmos 1527 0
17 1995-03-22 26.43% Faetano 1504 2 @ Murata 1508 1
18 1994-10-29 26.68% Domagnano 1553 1 @ Faetano 1555 0
19 1994-11-19 27.24% Tre Fiori 1616 1 @ Domagnano 1612 0
20 1995-05-26 * 27.75% La Fiorita 1475 3 @ Cosmos 1538 2
21 1994-11-19 28.65% La Fiorita 1477 1 @ Cailungo 1462 0
22 1995-05-10 * 30.24% Cosmos 1533 4 @ Domagnano 1577 2
23 1995-04-19 31.24% Domagnano 1586 3 @ Cosmos 1552 1
24 1994-10-15 32.36% @ Cosmos 1517 2 Tre Fiori 1615 1
25 1994-10-29 33.38% La Fiorita 1462 5 @ Virtus 1412 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-10-22 55.63 Libertas 7 1480 24.57% @ Juvenes 1 1500 47.99% 27.44%
2 1995-04-19 47.37 @ Murata 7 1499 47.50% La Fiorita 0 1483 25.04% 27.46%
3 1995-04-05 37.54 @ Libertas 4 1450 35.22% La Fiorita 0 1527 37.19% 27.59%
4 1994-10-22 34.32 Faetano 3 1520 26.01% @ Cosmos 0 1527 46.49% 27.50%
5 1994-10-29 32.43 La Fiorita 5 1462 33.38% @ Virtus 1 1412 38.99% 27.63%
6 1994-12-03 32.32 Virtus 2 1356 9.76% @ Faetano 0 1565 65.26% 24.98%
7 1994-11-12 30.81 Tre Fiori 7 1585 37.20% @ Libertas 2 1508 35.22% 27.59%
8 1995-05-03 * 28.14 La Fiorita 2 1436 16.93% @ Domagnano 0 1605 56.64% 26.43%
9 1994-10-08 26.86 Tre Fiori 3 1588 38.53% @ Murata 0 1502 33.91% 27.56%
10 1994-11-05 25.57 Domagnano 2 1566 21.83% @ Tre Fiori 0 1610 50.90% 27.27%
11 1994-10-01 23.34 Cosmos 3 1482 19.07% @ Domagnano 1 1555 53.91% 27.02%
12 1994-11-12 22.50 @ Cosmos 3 1501 45.76% La Fiorita 0 1499 26.71% 27.53%
13 1994-11-12 21.11 Domagnano 8 1591 48.41% @ Juvenes 3 1430 24.52% 27.07%
14 1995-03-08 19.91 @ Tre Fiori 4 1625 56.80% Murata 0 1522 16.51% 26.69%
15 1994-11-12 18.97 @ Faetano 3 1529 51.26% Cailungo 0 1481 21.49% 27.24%
16 1995-04-19 18.51 Domagnano 3 1586 31.24% @ Cosmos 1 1552 41.14% 27.62%
17 1994-10-29 18.39 @ Tre Fiori 3 1592 52.14% Libertas 0 1536 20.68% 27.18%
18 1995-05-10 * 16.89 Cosmos 4 1533 30.24% @ Domagnano 2 1577 42.21% 27.55%
19 1994-12-10 16.71 Virtus 2 1388 8.08% @ Tre Fiori 1 1636 67.73% 24.20%
20 1994-11-19 16.52 Faetano 5 1548 45.69% @ Juvenes 2 1409 27.05% 27.26%
21 1994-10-15 16.04 @ Faetano 5 1504 46.61% Libertas 2 1496 25.89% 27.50%
22 1995-04-19 15.43 Juvenes 2 1346 12.08% @ Faetano 1 1512 62.16% 25.76%
23 1994-10-08 15.11 Virtus 1 1405 16.20% @ Libertas 0 1512 57.16% 26.64%
24 1994-11-26 14.09 Murata 2 1501 16.76% @ Domagnano 1 1600 56.51% 26.73%
25 1994-10-29 13.99 @ Murata 2 1474 49.19% Juvenes 0 1444 23.43% 27.38%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-12-10 69.6 @ Libertas 3 1450 33.83% Cosmos 3 1536 38.61% 27.56%
2 1995-04-12 67.8 @ Faetano 1 1511 25.33% Tre Fiori 1 1665 47.53% 27.13%
3 1994-12-10 66.7 @ Domagnano 1 1600 53.36% Faetano 1 1533 19.57% 27.07%
4 1994-11-26 66.4 Murata 2 1501 16.76% @ Domagnano 1 1600 56.51% 26.73%
5 1994-12-10 66.3 Virtus 2 1388 8.08% @ Tre Fiori 1 1636 67.73% 24.20%
6 1995-03-08 66.2 @ La Fiorita 1 1525 35.96% Domagnano 1 1597 36.44% 27.60%
7 1995-03-29 65.1 @ La Fiorita 1 1527 41.51% Cosmos 1 1559 30.88% 27.62%
8 1994-11-26 65.0 @ Cailungo 1 1451 22.77% Tre Fiori 1 1628 50.33% 26.90%
9 1995-05-26 * 64.3 La Fiorita 3 1475 27.75% @ Cosmos 2 1538 44.80% 27.46%
10 1994-11-05 64.1 @ Juvenes 2 1430 36.13% Cosmos 2 1501 36.27% 27.60%
11 1994-12-03 63.8 @ Murata 1 1515 42.96% Cosmos 1 1536 29.44% 27.60%
12 1995-05-10 * 63.3 Cosmos 4 1533 30.24% @ Domagnano 2 1577 42.21% 27.55%
13 1995-05-10 * 62.8 @ Tre Fiori 0 1663 59.42% La Fiorita 0 1464 14.60% 25.98%
14 1994-10-15 62.7 @ Cosmos 2 1517 32.36% Tre Fiori 1 1615 40.12% 27.52%
15 1994-11-05 62.7 Murata 2 1488 20.82% @ Faetano 1 1542 51.99% 27.19%
16 1994-10-22 62.3 @ La Fiorita 2 1450 25.29% Tre Fiori 1 1604 47.58% 27.13%
17 1994-11-19 62.0 Tre Fiori 1 1616 27.24% @ Domagnano 0 1612 45.21% 27.55%
18 1995-04-05 61.4 @ Cailungo 2 1439 25.40% Domagnano 1 1592 47.46% 27.14%
19 1995-03-29 61.1 @ Murata 0 1496 32.47% Domagnano 0 1593 40.01% 27.52%
20 1994-10-08 61.0 Cosmos 2 1505 25.51% @ Faetano 1 1516 47.01% 27.48%
21 1994-10-01 60.6 Cosmos 3 1482 19.07% @ Domagnano 1 1555 53.91% 27.02%
22 1995-03-22 60.4 Faetano 2 1504 26.43% @ Murata 1 1508 46.05% 27.52%
23 1995-04-19 60.4 Domagnano 3 1586 31.24% @ Cosmos 1 1552 41.14% 27.62%
24 1995-04-19 60.3 @ Libertas 1 1501 51.46% Cailungo 1 1452 21.31% 27.23%
25 1995-04-12 59.9 @ Cosmos 0 1554 52.28% Murata 0 1497 20.55% 27.17%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-04-12 35.3 @ Libertas 3 1488 59.07% Juvenes 0 1360 14.58% 26.35%
2 1994-11-19 36.3 @ Cosmos 3 1523 60.77% Virtus 0 1375 13.18% 26.05%
3 1994-12-03 39.7 @ La Fiorita 2 1502 56.81% Juvenes 0 1399 16.51% 26.69%
4 1995-03-01 40.1 @ Tre Fiori 2 1619 67.16% Juvenes 0 1381 8.45% 24.39%
5 1995-03-22 40.9 @ Cailungo 1 1433 53.29% Juvenes 0 1366 19.63% 27.08%
6 1994-11-05 41.5 @ La Fiorita 1 1494 57.93% Virtus 0 1379 15.54% 26.53%
7 1995-03-08 41.5 @ Cosmos 1 1535 61.72% Juvenes 0 1375 12.42% 25.86%
8 1994-12-03 42.4 @ Domagnano 3 1586 58.61% Libertas 0 1464 14.96% 26.43%
9 1994-10-29 42.5 @ Murata 2 1474 49.19% Juvenes 0 1444 23.43% 27.38%
10 1994-11-12 43.2 @ Faetano 3 1529 51.26% Cailungo 0 1481 21.49% 27.24%
11 1995-03-15 43.2 @ Murata 1 1502 56.08% Virtus 0 1407 17.14% 26.78%
12 1995-04-19 43.5 @ Murata 7 1499 47.50% La Fiorita 0 1483 25.04% 27.46%
13 1995-03-22 44.0 @ Cosmos 2 1548 55.33% Libertas 0 1461 17.80% 26.87%
14 1994-11-12 44.4 @ Cosmos 3 1501 45.76% La Fiorita 0 1499 26.71% 27.53%
15 1995-03-08 45.2 @ Tre Fiori 4 1625 56.80% Murata 0 1522 16.51% 26.69%
16 1995-04-05 45.8 @ Libertas 4 1450 35.22% La Fiorita 0 1527 37.19% 27.59%
17 1994-10-29 46.4 La Fiorita 5 1462 33.38% @ Virtus 1 1412 38.99% 27.63%
18 1994-12-03 46.5 @ Tre Fiori 4 1626 62.78% Cailungo 1 1452 11.59% 25.62%
19 1994-10-29 47.0 @ Tre Fiori 3 1592 52.14% Libertas 0 1536 20.68% 27.18%
20 1994-10-15 47.8 @ La Fiorita 1 1441 41.17% Murata 0 1475 31.21% 27.62%
21 1994-11-12 48.1 Domagnano 8 1591 48.41% @ Juvenes 3 1430 24.52% 27.07%
22 1994-10-22 48.8 Domagnano 1 1545 43.75% @ Virtus 0 1420 28.88% 27.37%
23 1995-04-12 49.1 @ Domagnano 1 1580 55.73% La Fiorita 0 1489 17.45% 26.82%
24 1994-11-26 49.5 @ La Fiorita 3 1489 47.15% Libertas 1 1476 25.37% 27.48%
25 1994-10-08 49.8 Tre Fiori 3 1588 38.53% @ Murata 0 1502 33.91% 27.56%