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1995-96 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cosmos

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

San Giovanni

5.08 points above expected

28 points · 22.92 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Faetano

8.58 points below expected

10 points · 18.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cosmos 18 10 3 5 33 26 20 +6 29.83 +3.17
2 Murata 18 8 7 3 31 29 15 +14 27.34 +3.66
3 La Fiorita 18 8 5 5 29 23 17 +6 25.16 +3.84
4 Domagnano 18 8 4 6 28 20 15 +5 30.85 -2.85
5 San Giovanni 18 7 7 4 28 26 24 +2 22.92 +5.08
6 Folgore Falciano 18 7 6 5 27 19 18 +1 22.24 +4.76
7 Tre Fiori 18 8 2 8 26 23 13 +10 24.27 +1.73
8 Virtus 18 5 6 7 21 19 26 -7 22.70 -1.70
9 Cailungo 18 3 5 10 14 19 33 -14 21.48 -7.48
10 Faetano 18 3 1 14 10 16 39 -23 18.58 -8.58

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 San Giovanni 28 22.92 +5.08
2 Folgore Falciano 27 22.24 +4.76
3 La Fiorita 29 25.16 +3.84
4 Murata 31 27.34 +3.66
5 Cosmos 33 29.83 +3.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Faetano 10 18.58 -8.58
2 Cailungo 14 21.48 -7.48
3 Domagnano 28 30.85 -2.85
4 Virtus 21 22.70 -1.70
5 Tre Fiori 26 24.27 +1.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cosmos 5 Oct 15 – Nov 11 1 in 83
2 Tre Fiori 5 Mar 3 – Mar 31 1 in 35
3 Folgore Falciano 3 Mar 17 – Mar 31 1 in 25
4 La Fiorita 2 Oct 1 – Oct 8 1 in 18
5 Domagnano 3 Oct 22 – Nov 4 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Fiori 7 Sep 17 – Oct 29 1 in 23,972
2 Cailungo 6 Feb 25 – Mar 31 1 in 142
3 Faetano 6 Oct 15 – Feb 4 1 in 58
4 Domagnano 3 Feb 25 – Mar 10 1 in 47
5 Cosmos 2 Feb 11 – Feb 18 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Virtus 7 Sep 24 – Nov 4 1 in 46
2 Folgore Falciano 5 Mar 3 – Mar 31 1 in 15
3 Murata 8 Feb 11 – Mar 31 1 in 12
4 Domagnano 7 Oct 22 – Feb 18 1 in 10
5 San Giovanni 5 Sep 17 – Oct 15 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Fiori 8 Sep 17 – Nov 4 1 in 191
2 Domagnano 4 Feb 25 – Mar 17 1 in 10
3 Folgore Falciano 7 Oct 8 – Feb 4 1 in 9
4 Cosmos 3 Feb 4 – Feb 18 1 in 9
5 Cailungo 6 Feb 25 – Mar 31 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Murata 1620 31 +63 13 8.8 +4.2
Cosmos 1536 30 +0 7 6.7 +0.3
La Fiorita 1536 29 -12 7 7.8 -0.8
San Giovanni 1505 28 +14 8 6.8 +1.2
Tre Fiori 1636 26 +69 15 8.9 +6.1
Domagnano 1536 25 -29 4 8.2 -4.2
Folgore Falciano 1498 24 +44 11 6.0 +5.0
Virtus 1398 18 -1 6 5.2 +0.8
Cailungo 1373 14 -67 0 5.3 -5.3
Faetano 1362 10 -82 0 4.3 -4.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FF LF MUR SG TF VIR
Cailungo —
1-1-0
2.10
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-2
2.97
1-0-1
2.60
0-2-0
2.30
0-1-1
2.00
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
1.77
0-1-1
2.78
Cosmos
0-1-1
3.32
 —
1-0-1
2.42
2-0-0
3.87
1-0-1
3.62
2-0-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.65
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.43
Domagnano
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.99
 —
2-0-0
3.45
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
3.16
0-2-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
3.75
Faetano
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-2
2.00
 —
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
1.44
1-1-0
2.36
Folgore Falciano
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
1.84
1-1-0
1.90
2-0-0
2.66
 —
0-2-0
2.04
0-2-0
1.93
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
1.62
1-0-1
2.71
La Fiorita
0-2-0
3.11
0-0-2
2.76
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
3.51
0-2-0
3.39
 —
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.32
2-0-0
3.30
Murata
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.77
0-2-0
2.37
2-0-0
3.71
0-2-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.14
 —
0-1-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.23
1-1-0
3.65
San Giovanni
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.38
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.31
 —
0-1-1
2.04
0-2-0
3.22
Tre Fiori
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.94
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
3.84
0-1-1
3.11
0-0-2
3.20
1-1-0
3.38
 —
1-0-1
3.63
Virtus
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.00
2-0-0
1.70
0-1-1
3.06
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-1
1.79
0-2-0
2.21
1-0-1
1.81
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +14.3
Allowed 0.77 -7.7
Differential 0.87 +6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%12.78%5.00%1.11%1.11%0.56%27.22%
112.78%14.44%3.89%4.44%2.78%0.56%38.89%
25.00%3.89%4.44%0.56%1.11%1.11%16.11%
31.11%4.44%0.56%———6.11%
41.11%2.78%1.11%———5.00%
5+0.56%0.56%1.11%——4.44%6.67%
Total27.22%38.89%16.11%6.11%5.00%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.18 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 1.81
CV 1.15 1.15 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%—72.22%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.83 -0.78
SD 0.87 1.38 1.40
CV 0.83 0.75 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
111.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total16.67%61.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.06 +0.33
SD 1.42 1.11 1.81
CV 1.02 1.05 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
116.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.78 +0.28
SD 1.30 1.00 1.56
CV 1.24 1.29 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—33.33%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%66.67%
1—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
2—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total—55.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.17 -1.28
SD 1.94 1.54 2.65
CV 2.18 0.71 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
116.67%16.67%—5.56%——38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 1.08 1.21 1.35
CV 1.08 1.28 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
116.67%22.22%—5.56%——44.44%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%55.56%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.94 +0.33
SD 1.07 0.80 1.41
CV 0.84 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
116.67%22.22%11.11%———50.00%
2———5.56%——5.56%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.83 +0.78
SD 1.38 0.92 1.48
CV 0.86 1.11 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%11.11%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%16.67%———33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.33 +0.11
SD 1.25 1.37 1.60
CV 0.86 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
122.22%5.56%————27.78%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%————22.22%27.78%
Total33.33%27.78%11.11%—5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.50 +0.56
SD 1.73 1.29 1.72
CV 1.64 2.59 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
15.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.39 -0.39
SD 1.28 1.91 2.12
CV 1.28 1.38 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Fiori 1636 26 24.27 +1.73 68.0% 14 18 21 24 27 32 34
Murata 1571 31 27.34 +3.66 78.0% 16 18 23 28 31 38 41
Cosmos 1548 33 29.83 +3.17 83.0% 20 21 27 30 32 37 48
La Fiorita 1545 29 25.16 +3.84 81.0% 13 17 21 24 29 34 40
Domagnano 1536 28 30.85 -2.85 34.0% 20 22 26 30 35 40 44
San Giovanni 1533 28 22.92 +5.08 85.0% 12 15 18 22 25 33 41
Folgore Falciano 1498 27 22.24 +4.76 87.0% 13 15 19 22 25 30 35
Virtus 1398 21 22.70 -1.70 38.0% 14 15 18 23 26 30 35
Cailungo 1373 14 21.48 -7.48 9.0% 12 14 18 21 24 30 32
Faetano 1362 10 18.58 -8.58 7.0% 6 10 14 19 23 26 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.00%
Strong Edge
42.22%25.56%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.
176 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.0
Top-Heavy
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Cosmos, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.15 * Some Luck: 4.15 to 6.22 * Lucky: 6.22 to 8.29 * Wild Swing: 8.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.64 * Close: 1.64 to 2.46 * Off: 2.46 to 3.28 * Way Off: 3.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.80 points
Some Luck
05.1813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.055
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
87.00%
Folgore Falciano
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
Faetano
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 95.61
1.34
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.84
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Weak Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.42
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.82
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.132
Well Within Noise
00.1770.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

La Fiorita 4
Murata 2

Second Round

San Giovanni 2
Murata 0

Sim: 5.0%

Quarterfinals

Cosmos 1
La Fiorita 0

Sim: 5.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Cosmos19.00%30.00%16.00%17.00%6.00%2.00%7.00%2.00%1.00%—
Murata18.00%17.00%17.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%6.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%
La Fiorita13.00%6.00%14.00%9.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%5.00%
Domagnano33.00%24.00%11.00%14.00%4.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%——
San Giovanni4.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%14.00%14.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%12.00%
Folgore Falciano4.00%2.00%6.00%5.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%19.00%13.00%
Tre Fiori5.00%5.00%14.00%15.00%16.00%13.00%10.00%12.00%9.00%1.00%
Virtus3.00%4.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%16.00%13.00%11.00%16.00%6.00%
Cailungo—6.00%6.00%8.00%7.00%10.00%13.00%16.00%15.00%19.00%
Faetano1.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%6.00%12.00%10.00%9.00%15.00%42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Cailungo 80.00%
Cosmos 18.00%
Domagnano 18.00%
Faetano 94.00%
Folgore Falciano 83.00%
La Fiorita 58.00%
Murata 38.00%
San Giovanni 77.00%
Tre Fiori 61.00%
Virtus 73.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLa FioritaMurataSan GiovanniTre FioriVirtus
Cailungo0.0%4.00%28.6%7.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Cosmos100.0%4.00%41.2%17.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%57.1%14.00%12.5%16.00%60.0%5.00%46.2%13.00%33.3%3.00%
Domagnano71.4%7.00%58.8%17.00%50.0%4.00%20.0%5.00%25.0%16.00%44.4%9.00%27.3%11.00%100.0%3.00%
Faetano0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
La Fiorita100.0%1.00%42.9%14.00%80.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%40.0%10.00%60.0%5.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%1.00%
Murata100.0%5.00%87.5%16.00%75.0%16.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%6.00%60.0%10.00%58.3%12.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%
San Giovanni100.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%55.6%9.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%41.7%12.00%0.0%2.00%
Tre Fiori66.7%3.00%53.8%13.00%72.7%11.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%6.00%40.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%
Virtus100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLa FioritaMurataSan GiovanniTre FioriVirtus
Cailungo50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Cosmos33.3%3.00%66.7%3.00%71.4%7.00%45.5%11.00%60.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%
Domagnano66.7%3.00%50.0%4.00%40.0%5.00%28.6%14.00%66.7%3.00%33.3%3.00%
Faetano100.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano33.3%3.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
La Fiorita28.6%7.00%60.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%4.00%
Murata50.0%2.00%54.5%11.00%71.4%14.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%60.0%5.00%71.4%7.00%45.5%11.00%100.0%1.00%
San Giovanni100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%28.6%7.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori66.7%3.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%4.00%54.5%11.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Virtus0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-09-17 Folgore Falciano FL58.3 1614 1446 59.72% 25.66% 14.62%+1.15 +0.0 0
1995-09-17 @ Tre Fiori FW58.3 1446 1614 14.62% 25.66% 59.72%-1.15 +0.0 3
1995-09-17 Virtus W 2-152.0 1514 1443 49.06% 28.38% 22.55%+0.60 +7.8 3
1995-09-17 @ Cosmos L 1-252.0 1443 1514 22.55% 28.38% 49.06%-0.60 -7.8 0
1995-09-17 Domagnano L 0-447.1 1492 1534 33.96% 29.46% 36.58%-0.04 -40.8 0
1995-09-17 @ Faetano W 4-047.1 1534 1492 36.58% 29.46% 33.96%+0.04 +40.8 3
1995-09-17 Cailungo D 1-160.2 1483 1469 41.73% 29.24% 29.03%+0.28 -0.8 1
1995-09-17 @ La Fiorita D 1-160.2 1469 1483 29.03% 29.24% 41.73%-0.28 +0.8 1
1995-09-17 San Giovanni D 0-057.7 1527 1477 46.57% 28.76% 24.67%+0.49 -1.6 1
1995-09-17 @ Murata D 0-057.7 1477 1527 24.67% 28.76% 46.57%-0.49 +1.6 1
1995-09-24 Tre Fiori W 1-059.5 1470 1614 21.78% 28.22% 50.00%-0.62 +15.3 4
1995-09-24 @ Cailungo L 0-159.5 1614 1470 50.00% 28.22% 21.78%+0.62 -15.3 0
1995-09-24 Murata D 1-165.8 1575 1526 46.35% 28.79% 24.87%+0.48 -1.4 4
1995-09-24 @ Domagnano D 1-165.8 1526 1575 24.87% 28.79% 46.35%-0.48 +1.4 2
1995-09-24 Cosmos L 1-351.4 1446 1522 29.30% 29.26% 41.43%-0.24 -16.7 3
1995-09-24 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-151.4 1522 1446 41.43% 29.26% 29.30%+0.24 +16.7 6
1995-09-24 La Fiorita W 1-049.7 1478 1482 39.29% 29.38% 31.33%+0.18 +10.8 4
1995-09-24 @ San Giovanni L 0-149.7 1482 1478 31.33% 29.38% 39.29%-0.18 -10.8 1
1995-09-24 Faetano D 1-158.0 1435 1452 37.57% 29.44% 32.99%+0.11 -0.3 1
1995-09-24 @ Virtus D 1-158.0 1452 1435 32.99% 29.44% 37.57%-0.11 +0.3 1
1995-10-01 Cailungo D 1-163.1 1539 1485 46.88% 28.72% 24.40%+0.50 -1.5 7
1995-10-01 @ Cosmos D 1-163.1 1485 1539 24.40% 28.72% 46.88%-0.50 +1.5 5
1995-10-01 Folgore Falciano L 0-150.4 1452 1429 42.98% 29.15% 27.87%+0.33 -13.6 1
1995-10-01 @ Faetano W 1-050.4 1429 1452 27.87% 29.15% 42.98%-0.33 +13.6 6
1995-10-01 Domagnano W 3-158.8 1472 1573 26.21% 28.97% 44.82%-0.38 +22.9 4
1995-10-01 @ La Fiorita L 1-358.8 1573 1472 44.82% 28.97% 26.21%+0.38 -22.9 4
1995-10-01 Murata L 0-160.6 1598 1527 49.08% 28.38% 22.54%+0.60 -15.1 0
1995-10-01 @ Tre Fiori W 1-060.6 1527 1598 22.54% 28.38% 49.08%-0.60 +15.1 5
1995-10-01 San Giovanni D 0-054.6 1435 1489 32.26% 29.42% 38.32%-0.11 +0.4 2
1995-10-01 @ Virtus D 0-054.6 1489 1435 38.32% 29.42% 32.26%+0.11 -0.4 5
1995-10-08 Faetano L 1-258.1 1487 1438 46.29% 28.79% 24.92%+0.47 -13.6 5
1995-10-08 @ Cailungo W 2-158.1 1438 1487 24.92% 28.79% 46.29%-0.47 +13.6 4
1995-10-08 Cosmos W 1-053.7 1551 1537 41.67% 29.25% 29.08%+0.27 +10.2 7
1995-10-08 @ Domagnano L 0-153.7 1537 1551 29.08% 29.25% 41.67%-0.27 -10.2 7
1995-10-08 San Giovanni D 0-054.9 1442 1489 33.32% 29.44% 37.24%-0.06 +0.3 7
1995-10-08 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-054.9 1489 1442 37.24% 29.44% 33.32%+0.06 -0.3 6
1995-10-08 Virtus D 1-161.7 1542 1436 53.26% 27.54% 19.20%+0.80 -2.3 6
1995-10-08 @ Murata D 1-161.7 1436 1542 19.20% 27.54% 53.26%-0.80 +2.3 3
1995-10-08 La Fiorita L 0-256.3 1583 1494 51.19% 27.99% 20.81%+0.70 -29.5 0
1995-10-08 @ Tre Fiori W 2-056.3 1494 1583 20.81% 27.99% 51.19%-0.70 +29.5 7
1995-10-15 Tre Fiori FW57.9 1527 1554 36.09% 29.46% 34.45%+0.05 +0.0 10
1995-10-15 @ Cosmos FL57.9 1554 1527 34.45% 29.46% 36.09%-0.05 +0.0 0
1995-10-15 Folgore Falciano D 2-266.4 1524 1443 50.31% 28.16% 21.53%+0.66 -1.4 8
1995-10-15 @ La Fiorita D 2-266.4 1443 1524 21.53% 28.16% 50.31%-0.66 +1.4 8
1995-10-15 Cailungo D 0-058.2 1540 1473 48.56% 28.47% 22.98%+0.58 -1.9 7
1995-10-15 @ Murata D 0-058.2 1473 1540 22.98% 28.47% 48.56%-0.58 +1.9 6
1995-10-15 Faetano W 2-044.1 1488 1452 44.73% 28.98% 26.29%+0.40 +17.8 9
1995-10-15 @ San Giovanni L 0-244.1 1452 1488 26.29% 28.98% 44.73%-0.40 -17.8 4
1995-10-15 Domagnano W 2-052.5 1438 1561 23.88% 28.63% 47.49%-0.50 +27.7 6
1995-10-15 @ Virtus L 0-252.5 1561 1438 47.49% 28.63% 23.88%+0.50 -27.7 7
1995-10-22 Tre Fiori FW58.1 1533 1554 36.95% 29.45% 33.61%+0.08 +0.0 10
1995-10-22 @ Domagnano FL58.1 1554 1533 33.61% 29.45% 36.95%-0.08 +0.0 0
1995-10-22 Virtus D 1-159.8 1475 1466 41.17% 29.28% 29.54%+0.25 -0.7 7
1995-10-22 @ Cailungo D 1-159.8 1466 1475 29.54% 29.28% 41.17%-0.25 +0.7 7
1995-10-22 La Fiorita L 0-148.5 1434 1523 27.83% 29.14% 43.03%-0.30 -9.8 4
1995-10-22 @ Faetano W 1-048.5 1523 1434 43.03% 29.14% 27.83%+0.30 +9.8 11
1995-10-22 Murata D 1-161.4 1444 1538 27.13% 29.07% 43.80%-0.34 +1.1 9
1995-10-22 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-161.4 1538 1444 43.80% 29.07% 27.13%+0.34 -1.1 8
1995-10-22 Cosmos L 1-453.4 1506 1527 36.91% 29.45% 33.64%+0.08 -27.9 9
1995-10-22 @ San Giovanni W 4-153.4 1527 1506 33.64% 29.45% 36.91%-0.08 +27.9 13
1995-10-29 Virtus FL56.1 1554 1466 51.04% 28.02% 20.94%+0.69 +0.0 0
1995-10-29 @ Tre Fiori FW56.1 1466 1554 20.94% 28.02% 51.04%-0.69 +0.0 10
1995-10-29 La Fiorita W 3-155.3 1555 1532 42.92% 29.15% 27.93%+0.33 +16.1 16
1995-10-29 @ Cosmos L 1-355.3 1532 1555 27.93% 29.15% 42.92%-0.33 -16.1 11
1995-10-29 Cailungo L 2-455.3 1445 1475 35.71% 29.46% 34.83%+0.03 -17.2 9
1995-10-29 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-255.3 1475 1445 34.83% 29.46% 35.71%-0.03 +17.2 10
1995-10-29 Faetano W 4-039.5 1537 1424 53.93% 27.38% 18.69%+0.84 +25.3 11
1995-10-29 @ Murata L 0-439.5 1424 1537 18.69% 27.38% 53.93%-0.84 -25.3 4
1995-10-29 Domagnano L 0-151.9 1478 1533 32.13% 29.41% 38.46%-0.11 -11.0 9
1995-10-29 @ San Giovanni W 1-051.9 1533 1478 38.46% 29.41% 32.13%+0.11 +11.0 13
1995-11-04 Cailungo W 3-152.3 1544 1492 46.76% 28.73% 24.51%+0.49 +14.6 16
1995-11-04 @ Domagnano L 1-352.3 1492 1544 24.51% 28.73% 46.76%-0.49 -14.5 10
1995-11-04 Cosmos L 0-145.9 1399 1571 19.16% 27.53% 53.31%-0.78 -7.2 4
1995-11-04 @ Faetano W 1-045.9 1571 1399 53.31% 27.53% 19.16%+0.78 +7.2 19
1995-11-04 Murata W 2-161.2 1516 1562 33.31% 29.44% 37.24%-0.06 +11.5 14
1995-11-04 @ La Fiorita L 1-261.2 1562 1516 37.24% 29.44% 33.31%+0.06 -11.5 11
1995-11-04 San Giovanni D 2-268.5 1554 1467 50.93% 28.04% 21.03%+0.69 -1.5 1
1995-11-04 @ Tre Fiori D 2-268.5 1467 1554 21.03% 28.04% 50.93%-0.69 +1.5 10
1995-11-04 Folgore Falciano W 2-042.4 1466 1428 44.99% 28.95% 26.06%+0.42 +17.6 13
1995-11-04 @ Virtus L 0-242.4 1428 1466 26.06% 28.95% 44.99%-0.42 -17.6 9
1995-11-11 San Giovanni L 0-248.8 1477 1469 41.01% 29.29% 29.70%+0.25 -24.7 10
1995-11-11 @ Cailungo W 2-048.8 1469 1477 29.70% 29.29% 41.01%-0.25 +24.7 13
1995-11-11 Murata W 2-159.7 1578 1551 43.55% 29.10% 27.36%+0.35 +9.2 22
1995-11-11 @ Cosmos L 1-259.7 1551 1578 27.36% 29.10% 43.55%-0.35 -9.2 11
1995-11-11 Tre Fiori L 0-145.3 1392 1552 20.18% 27.83% 51.99%-0.71 -7.6 4
1995-11-11 @ Faetano W 1-045.3 1552 1392 51.99% 27.83% 20.18%+0.71 +7.6 4
1995-11-11 Domagnano D 0-056.6 1410 1559 21.32% 28.11% 50.57%-0.64 +2.2 10
1995-11-11 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-056.6 1559 1410 50.57% 28.11% 21.32%+0.64 -2.2 17
1995-11-11 Virtus W 1-049.7 1528 1484 45.68% 28.87% 25.45%+0.45 +9.2 17
1995-11-11 @ La Fiorita L 0-149.7 1484 1528 25.45% 28.87% 45.68%-0.45 -9.2 13
1996-02-04 La Fiorita D 1-161.6 1453 1537 28.31% 29.19% 42.50%-0.28 +0.9 11
1996-02-04 @ Cailungo D 1-161.6 1537 1453 42.50% 29.19% 28.31%+0.28 -0.9 18
1996-02-04 Faetano W 2-039.5 1556 1384 60.12% 25.51% 14.36%+1.18 +10.4 20
1996-02-04 @ Domagnano L 0-239.5 1384 1556 14.36% 25.51% 60.12%-1.18 -10.4 4
1996-02-04 Tre Fiori L 0-146.8 1412 1560 21.40% 28.13% 50.46%-0.64 -8.0 10
1996-02-04 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-046.8 1560 1412 50.46% 28.13% 21.40%+0.64 +8.0 7
1996-02-04 Murata W 3-264.4 1493 1542 33.01% 29.44% 37.56%-0.08 +10.9 16
1996-02-04 @ San Giovanni L 2-364.4 1542 1493 37.56% 29.44% 33.01%+0.08 -10.9 11
1996-02-04 Cosmos D 1-164.4 1475 1588 24.98% 28.80% 46.21%-0.44 +1.4 14
1996-02-04 @ Virtus D 1-164.4 1588 1475 46.21% 28.80% 24.98%+0.44 -1.4 23
1996-02-11 Folgore Falciano L 0-353.1 1586 1405 61.04% 25.18% 13.78%+1.23 -49.7 23
1996-02-11 @ Cosmos W 3-053.1 1405 1586 13.78% 25.18% 61.04%-1.23 +49.7 13
1996-02-11 Virtus W 8-146.8 1374 1476 26.16% 28.96% 44.87%-0.38 +70.0 7
1996-02-11 @ Faetano L 1-846.8 1476 1374 44.87% 28.96% 26.16%+0.38 -70.0 14
1996-02-11 San Giovanni W 4-150.6 1536 1504 44.11% 29.04% 26.85%+0.38 +22.1 21
1996-02-11 @ La Fiorita L 1-450.6 1504 1536 26.85% 29.04% 44.11%-0.38 -22.1 16
1996-02-11 Domagnano D 0-060.9 1531 1567 34.77% 29.46% 35.77%-0.01 +0.1 12
1996-02-11 @ Murata D 0-060.9 1567 1531 35.77% 29.46% 34.77%+0.01 -0.1 21
1996-02-11 Cailungo W 4-146.9 1568 1453 54.10% 27.34% 18.56%+0.85 +16.2 10
1996-02-11 @ Tre Fiori L 1-446.9 1453 1568 18.56% 27.34% 54.10%-0.85 -16.2 11
1996-02-18 Cosmos W 1-054.0 1437 1536 26.52% 29.00% 44.48%-0.37 +13.9 14
1996-02-18 @ Cailungo L 0-154.0 1536 1437 44.48% 29.00% 26.52%+0.37 -13.9 23
1996-02-18 La Fiorita W 1-055.0 1567 1558 41.03% 29.29% 29.68%+0.25 +10.3 24
1996-02-18 @ Domagnano L 0-155.0 1558 1567 29.68% 29.29% 41.03%-0.25 -10.3 21
1996-02-18 Faetano W 1-047.0 1454 1444 41.26% 29.28% 29.46%+0.26 +10.3 16
1996-02-18 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-147.0 1444 1454 29.46% 29.28% 41.26%-0.26 -10.3 7
1996-02-18 Tre Fiori W 4-263.0 1531 1584 32.37% 29.42% 38.21%-0.10 +18.1 15
1996-02-18 @ Murata L 2-463.0 1584 1531 38.21% 29.42% 32.37%+0.10 -18.1 10
1996-02-18 Virtus D 2-263.7 1482 1406 49.70% 28.27% 22.03%+0.63 -1.4 17
1996-02-18 @ San Giovanni D 2-263.7 1406 1482 22.03% 28.27% 49.70%-0.63 +1.4 15
1996-02-25 Domagnano W 1-056.9 1523 1577 32.18% 29.41% 38.41%-0.11 +12.5 26
1996-02-25 @ Cosmos L 0-156.9 1577 1523 38.41% 29.41% 32.18%+0.11 -12.5 24
1996-02-25 Cailungo W 2-153.0 1434 1451 37.38% 29.44% 33.17%+0.10 +10.6 10
1996-02-25 @ Faetano L 1-253.0 1451 1434 33.17% 29.44% 37.38%-0.10 -10.6 14
1996-02-25 Tre Fiori D 1-166.0 1548 1566 37.30% 29.44% 33.25%+0.09 -0.2 22
1996-02-25 @ La Fiorita D 1-166.0 1566 1548 33.25% 29.44% 37.30%-0.09 +0.2 11
1996-02-25 Folgore Falciano W 1-048.3 1481 1464 42.09% 29.22% 28.69%+0.29 +10.1 20
1996-02-25 @ San Giovanni L 0-148.3 1464 1481 28.69% 29.22% 42.09%-0.29 -10.1 16
1996-02-25 Murata L 0-146.4 1408 1549 21.96% 28.26% 49.77%-0.61 -8.2 15
1996-02-25 @ Virtus W 1-046.4 1549 1408 49.77% 28.26% 21.96%+0.61 +8.2 18
1996-03-03 Murata L 1-350.9 1441 1557 24.55% 28.74% 46.71%-0.46 -14.6 14
1996-03-03 @ Cailungo W 3-150.9 1557 1441 46.71% 28.74% 24.55%+0.46 +14.6 21
1996-03-03 Virtus L 0-157.2 1565 1399 59.44% 25.75% 14.80%+1.14 -17.7 24
1996-03-03 @ Domagnano W 1-057.2 1399 1565 14.80% 25.75% 59.44%-1.14 +17.7 18
1996-03-03 San Giovanni L 2-551.2 1444 1491 33.23% 29.44% 37.33%-0.07 -22.5 10
1996-03-03 @ Faetano W 5-251.2 1491 1444 37.33% 29.44% 33.23%+0.07 +22.5 23
1996-03-03 La Fiorita D 1-162.1 1454 1548 27.24% 29.08% 43.68%-0.33 +1.1 17
1996-03-03 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-162.1 1548 1454 43.68% 29.08% 27.24%+0.33 -1.0 23
1996-03-03 Cosmos W 2-050.1 1566 1535 44.05% 29.05% 26.90%+0.38 +18.1 14
1996-03-03 @ Tre Fiori L 0-250.1 1535 1566 26.90% 29.05% 44.05%-0.38 -18.1 26
1996-03-10 San Giovanni D 1-163.1 1517 1513 40.33% 29.33% 30.34%+0.22 -0.6 27
1996-03-10 @ Cosmos D 1-163.1 1513 1517 30.34% 29.33% 40.33%-0.22 +0.6 24
1996-03-10 Faetano W 1-045.2 1546 1422 55.25% 27.04% 17.71%+0.91 +6.7 26
1996-03-10 @ La Fiorita L 0-145.2 1422 1546 17.71% 27.04% 55.25%-0.91 -6.7 10
1996-03-10 Folgore Falciano D 1-163.6 1572 1455 54.33% 27.28% 18.39%+0.86 -2.4 22
1996-03-10 @ Murata D 1-163.6 1455 1572 18.39% 27.28% 54.33%-0.86 +2.4 18
1996-03-10 Domagnano W 1-054.1 1584 1547 44.86% 28.96% 26.17%+0.41 +9.4 17
1996-03-10 @ Tre Fiori L 0-154.1 1547 1584 26.17% 28.96% 44.86%-0.41 -9.4 24
1996-03-10 Cailungo W 5-248.0 1417 1426 38.61% 29.41% 31.99%+0.15 +21.8 21
1996-03-10 @ Virtus L 2-548.0 1426 1417 31.99% 29.41% 38.61%-0.15 -21.8 14
1996-03-17 Folgore Falciano L 0-146.7 1404 1458 32.29% 29.42% 38.29%-0.11 -11.0 14
1996-03-17 @ Cailungo W 1-046.7 1458 1404 38.29% 29.42% 32.29%+0.11 +11.0 21
1996-03-17 San Giovanni D 2-269.3 1537 1514 43.03% 29.14% 27.83%+0.33 -0.7 25
1996-03-17 @ Domagnano D 2-269.3 1514 1537 27.83% 29.14% 43.03%-0.33 +0.7 25
1996-03-17 Murata L 0-341.6 1415 1569 20.74% 27.97% 51.29%-0.68 -21.2 10
1996-03-17 @ Faetano W 3-041.6 1569 1415 51.29% 27.97% 20.74%+0.68 +21.2 25
1996-03-17 Cosmos L 0-254.4 1553 1516 44.80% 28.97% 26.23%+0.41 -26.4 26
1996-03-17 @ La Fiorita W 2-054.4 1516 1553 26.23% 28.97% 44.80%-0.41 +26.4 30
1996-03-17 Tre Fiori L 0-148.8 1439 1594 20.71% 27.96% 51.33%-0.68 -7.8 21
1996-03-17 @ Virtus W 1-048.8 1594 1439 51.33% 27.96% 20.71%+0.68 +7.8 20
1996-03-24 Domagnano L 1-347.5 1393 1537 21.77% 28.22% 50.01%-0.62 -13.2 14
1996-03-24 @ Cailungo W 3-147.5 1537 1393 50.01% 28.22% 21.77%+0.62 +13.2 28
1996-03-24 Faetano W 4-142.6 1543 1394 57.80% 26.30% 15.90%+1.04 +14.1 33
1996-03-24 @ Cosmos L 1-442.6 1394 1543 15.90% 26.30% 57.80%-1.04 -14.1 10
1996-03-24 Virtus W 3-148.0 1469 1431 44.90% 28.96% 26.14%+0.41 +15.3 24
1996-03-24 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-348.0 1431 1469 26.14% 28.96% 44.90%-0.41 -15.3 21
1996-03-24 La Fiorita W 1-052.7 1591 1527 48.20% 28.52% 23.28%+0.56 +8.5 28
1996-03-24 @ Murata L 0-152.7 1527 1591 23.28% 28.52% 48.20%-0.56 -8.5 26
1996-03-24 Tre Fiori L 1-356.3 1515 1601 28.03% 29.16% 42.81%-0.29 -16.2 25
1996-03-24 @ San Giovanni W 3-156.3 1601 1515 42.81% 29.16% 28.03%+0.29 +16.2 23
1996-03-31 Folgore Falciano L 1-262.6 1550 1484 48.45% 28.49% 23.07%+0.57 -14.1 28
1996-03-31 @ Domagnano W 2-162.6 1484 1550 23.07% 28.49% 48.45%-0.57 +14.1 27
1996-03-31 Cosmos W 4-153.9 1599 1557 45.50% 28.89% 25.61%+0.44 +21.3 31
1996-03-31 @ Murata L 1-453.9 1557 1599 25.61% 28.89% 45.50%-0.44 -21.3 33
1996-03-31 Cailungo W 2-147.6 1499 1380 54.57% 27.22% 18.21%+0.87 +6.5 28
1996-03-31 @ San Giovanni L 1-247.6 1380 1499 18.21% 27.22% 54.57%-0.87 -6.5 14
1996-03-31 Faetano W 5-037.5 1618 1380 66.19% 23.01% 10.80%+1.55 +18.0 26
1996-03-31 @ Tre Fiori L 0-537.5 1380 1618 10.80% 23.01% 66.19%-1.55 -18.0 10
1996-03-31 La Fiorita L 0-243.8 1416 1518 26.15% 28.96% 44.89%-0.38 -17.7 21
1996-03-31 @ Virtus W 2-043.8 1518 1416 44.89% 28.96% 26.15%+0.38 +17.7 29

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1996-04-07 La Fiorita L 2-466.6 1620 1536 46.74% 28.74% 24.52%+0.48 -21.2 0-1
1996-04-07 @ Murata W 4-266.6 1536 1620 24.52% 28.74% 46.74%-0.48 +21.2 1-0
1996-04-14 Murata W 2-056.4 1505 1599 23.49% 28.56% 47.95%-0.53 +27.9 1-0
1996-04-14 @ San Giovanni L 0-256.4 1599 1505 47.95% 28.56% 23.49%+0.53 -27.9 0-2
1996-04-21 La Fiorita W 1-056.7 1536 1557 32.24% 29.42% 38.34%-0.12 +12.4 1-0
1996-04-21 @ Cosmos L 0-156.7 1557 1536 38.34% 29.42% 32.24%+0.12 -12.4 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-02-11 13.78% Folgore Falciano 1405 3 @ Cosmos 1586 0
2 1996-03-03 14.80% Virtus 1399 1 @ Domagnano 1565 0
3 1995-10-08 20.81% La Fiorita 1494 2 @ Tre Fiori 1583 0
4 1995-09-24 21.78% @ Cailungo 1470 1 Tre Fiori 1614 0
5 1995-10-01 22.54% Murata 1527 1 @ Tre Fiori 1598 0
6 1996-03-31 23.07% Folgore Falciano 1484 2 @ Domagnano 1550 1
7 1996-04-14 * 23.49% @ San Giovanni 1505 2 Murata 1599 0
8 1995-10-15 23.88% @ Virtus 1438 2 Domagnano 1561 0
9 1996-04-07 * 24.52% La Fiorita 1536 4 @ Murata 1620 2
10 1995-10-08 24.92% Faetano 1438 2 @ Cailungo 1487 1
11 1996-02-11 26.16% @ Faetano 1374 8 Virtus 1476 1
12 1995-10-01 26.21% @ La Fiorita 1472 3 Domagnano 1573 1
13 1996-03-17 26.23% Cosmos 1516 2 @ La Fiorita 1553 0
14 1996-02-18 26.52% @ Cailungo 1437 1 Cosmos 1536 0
15 1995-10-01 27.87% Folgore Falciano 1429 1 @ Faetano 1452 0
16 1995-11-11 29.70% San Giovanni 1469 2 @ Cailungo 1477 0
17 1996-02-25 32.18% @ Cosmos 1523 1 Domagnano 1577 0
18 1996-04-21 * 32.24% @ Cosmos 1536 1 La Fiorita 1557 0
19 1996-02-18 32.37% @ Murata 1531 4 Tre Fiori 1584 2
20 1996-02-04 33.01% @ San Giovanni 1493 3 Murata 1542 2
21 1995-11-04 33.31% @ La Fiorita 1516 2 Murata 1562 1
22 1995-10-22 33.64% Cosmos 1527 4 @ San Giovanni 1506 1
23 1995-10-29 34.83% Cailungo 1475 4 @ Folgore Falciano 1445 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-02-11 70.01 @ Faetano 8 1374 26.16% Virtus 1 1476 44.87% 28.96%
2 1996-02-11 49.65 Folgore Falciano 3 1405 13.78% @ Cosmos 0 1586 61.04% 25.18%
3 1995-09-17 40.79 Domagnano 4 1534 36.58% @ Faetano 0 1492 33.96% 29.46%
4 1995-10-08 29.48 La Fiorita 2 1494 20.81% @ Tre Fiori 0 1583 51.19% 27.99%
5 1995-10-22 27.93 Cosmos 4 1527 33.64% @ San Giovanni 1 1506 36.91% 29.45%
6 1996-04-14 * 27.92 @ San Giovanni 2 1505 23.49% Murata 0 1599 47.95% 28.56%
7 1995-10-15 27.70 @ Virtus 2 1438 23.88% Domagnano 0 1561 47.49% 28.63%
8 1996-03-17 26.43 Cosmos 2 1516 26.23% @ La Fiorita 0 1553 44.80% 28.97%
9 1995-10-29 25.34 @ Murata 4 1537 53.93% Faetano 0 1424 18.69% 27.38%
10 1995-11-11 24.67 San Giovanni 2 1469 29.70% @ Cailungo 0 1477 41.01% 29.29%
11 1995-10-01 22.90 @ La Fiorita 3 1472 26.21% Domagnano 1 1573 44.82% 28.97%
12 1996-03-03 22.45 San Giovanni 5 1491 37.33% @ Faetano 2 1444 33.23% 29.44%
13 1996-02-11 22.11 @ La Fiorita 4 1536 44.11% San Giovanni 1 1504 26.85% 29.04%
14 1996-03-10 21.84 @ Virtus 5 1417 38.61% Cailungo 2 1426 31.99% 29.41%
15 1996-03-31 21.31 @ Murata 4 1599 45.50% Cosmos 1 1557 25.61% 28.89%
16 1996-03-17 21.25 Murata 3 1569 51.29% @ Faetano 0 1415 20.74% 27.97%
17 1996-04-07 * 21.18 La Fiorita 4 1536 24.52% @ Murata 2 1620 46.74% 28.74%
18 1996-02-18 18.12 @ Murata 4 1531 32.37% Tre Fiori 2 1584 38.21% 29.42%
19 1996-03-03 18.08 @ Tre Fiori 2 1566 44.05% Cosmos 0 1535 26.90% 29.05%
20 1996-03-31 17.98 @ Tre Fiori 5 1618 66.19% Faetano 0 1380 10.80% 23.01%
21 1995-10-15 17.76 @ San Giovanni 2 1488 44.73% Faetano 0 1452 26.29% 28.98%
22 1996-03-03 17.73 Virtus 1 1399 14.80% @ Domagnano 0 1565 59.44% 25.75%
23 1996-03-31 17.69 La Fiorita 2 1518 44.89% @ Virtus 0 1416 26.15% 28.96%
24 1995-11-04 17.64 @ Virtus 2 1466 44.99% Folgore Falciano 0 1428 26.06% 28.95%
25 1995-10-29 17.25 Cailungo 4 1475 34.83% @ Folgore Falciano 2 1445 35.71% 29.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-03-17 69.3 @ Domagnano 2 1537 43.03% San Giovanni 2 1514 27.83% 29.14%
2 1995-11-04 68.5 @ Tre Fiori 2 1554 50.93% San Giovanni 2 1467 21.03% 28.04%
3 1996-04-07 * 66.6 La Fiorita 4 1536 24.52% @ Murata 2 1620 46.74% 28.74%
4 1995-10-15 66.4 @ La Fiorita 2 1524 50.31% Folgore Falciano 2 1443 21.53% 28.16%
5 1996-02-25 66.0 @ La Fiorita 1 1548 37.30% Tre Fiori 1 1566 33.25% 29.44%
6 1995-09-24 65.8 @ Domagnano 1 1575 46.35% Murata 1 1526 24.87% 28.79%
7 1996-02-04 64.4 @ San Giovanni 3 1493 33.01% Murata 2 1542 37.56% 29.44%
8 1996-02-04 64.4 @ Virtus 1 1475 24.98% Cosmos 1 1588 46.21% 28.80%
9 1996-02-18 63.7 @ San Giovanni 2 1482 49.70% Virtus 2 1406 22.03% 28.27%
10 1996-03-10 63.6 @ Murata 1 1572 54.33% Folgore Falciano 1 1455 18.39% 27.28%
11 1995-10-01 63.1 @ Cosmos 1 1539 46.88% Cailungo 1 1485 24.40% 28.72%
12 1996-03-10 63.1 @ Cosmos 1 1517 40.33% San Giovanni 1 1513 30.34% 29.33%
13 1996-02-18 63.0 @ Murata 4 1531 32.37% Tre Fiori 2 1584 38.21% 29.42%
14 1996-03-31 62.6 Folgore Falciano 2 1484 23.07% @ Domagnano 1 1550 48.45% 28.49%
15 1996-03-03 62.1 @ Folgore Falciano 1 1454 27.24% La Fiorita 1 1548 43.68% 29.08%
16 1995-10-08 61.7 @ Murata 1 1542 53.26% Virtus 1 1436 19.20% 27.54%
17 1996-02-04 61.6 @ Cailungo 1 1453 28.31% La Fiorita 1 1537 42.50% 29.19%
18 1995-10-22 61.4 @ Folgore Falciano 1 1444 27.13% Murata 1 1538 43.80% 29.07%
19 1995-11-04 61.2 @ La Fiorita 2 1516 33.31% Murata 1 1562 37.24% 29.44%
20 1996-02-11 60.9 @ Murata 0 1531 34.77% Domagnano 0 1567 35.77% 29.46%
21 1995-10-01 60.6 Murata 1 1527 22.54% @ Tre Fiori 0 1598 49.08% 28.38%
22 1995-09-17 60.2 @ La Fiorita 1 1483 41.73% Cailungo 1 1469 29.03% 29.24%
23 1995-10-22 59.8 @ Cailungo 1 1475 41.17% Virtus 1 1466 29.54% 29.28%
24 1995-11-11 59.7 @ Cosmos 2 1578 43.55% Murata 1 1551 27.36% 29.10%
25 1995-09-24 59.5 @ Cailungo 1 1470 21.78% Tre Fiori 0 1614 50.00% 28.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-03-31 37.5 @ Tre Fiori 5 1618 66.19% Faetano 0 1380 10.80% 23.01%
2 1995-10-29 39.5 @ Murata 4 1537 53.93% Faetano 0 1424 18.69% 27.38%
3 1996-02-04 39.5 @ Domagnano 2 1556 60.12% Faetano 0 1384 14.36% 25.51%
4 1996-03-17 41.6 Murata 3 1569 51.29% @ Faetano 0 1415 20.74% 27.97%
5 1995-11-04 42.4 @ Virtus 2 1466 44.99% Folgore Falciano 0 1428 26.06% 28.95%
6 1996-03-24 42.6 @ Cosmos 4 1543 57.80% Faetano 1 1394 15.90% 26.30%
7 1996-03-31 43.8 La Fiorita 2 1518 44.89% @ Virtus 0 1416 26.15% 28.96%
8 1995-10-15 44.1 @ San Giovanni 2 1488 44.73% Faetano 0 1452 26.29% 28.98%
9 1996-03-10 45.2 @ La Fiorita 1 1546 55.25% Faetano 0 1422 17.71% 27.04%
10 1995-11-11 45.3 Tre Fiori 1 1552 51.99% @ Faetano 0 1392 20.18% 27.83%
11 1995-11-04 45.9 Cosmos 1 1571 53.31% @ Faetano 0 1399 19.16% 27.53%
12 1996-02-25 46.4 Murata 1 1549 49.77% @ Virtus 0 1408 21.96% 28.26%
13 1996-03-17 46.7 Folgore Falciano 1 1458 38.29% @ Cailungo 0 1404 32.29% 29.42%
14 1996-02-04 46.8 Tre Fiori 1 1560 50.46% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1412 21.40% 28.13%
15 1996-02-11 46.8 @ Faetano 8 1374 26.16% Virtus 1 1476 44.87% 28.96%
16 1996-02-11 46.9 @ Tre Fiori 4 1568 54.10% Cailungo 1 1453 18.56% 27.34%
17 1996-02-18 47.0 @ Folgore Falciano 1 1454 41.26% Faetano 0 1444 29.46% 29.28%
18 1995-09-17 47.1 Domagnano 4 1534 36.58% @ Faetano 0 1492 33.96% 29.46%
19 1996-03-24 47.5 Domagnano 3 1537 50.01% @ Cailungo 1 1393 21.77% 28.22%
20 1996-03-31 47.6 @ San Giovanni 2 1499 54.57% Cailungo 1 1380 18.21% 27.22%
21 1996-03-10 48.0 @ Virtus 5 1417 38.61% Cailungo 2 1426 31.99% 29.41%
22 1996-03-24 48.0 @ Folgore Falciano 3 1469 44.90% Virtus 1 1431 26.14% 28.96%
23 1996-02-25 48.3 @ San Giovanni 1 1481 42.09% Folgore Falciano 0 1464 28.69% 29.22%
24 1995-10-22 48.5 La Fiorita 1 1523 43.03% @ Faetano 0 1434 27.83% 29.14%
25 1995-11-11 48.8 San Giovanni 2 1469 29.70% @ Cailungo 0 1477 41.01% 29.29%