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2006-07 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

49 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

La Fiorita

7.24 points above expected

36 points · 28.76 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fiorentino

12.34 points below expected

6 points · 18.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 20 16 1 3 49 45 17 +28 42.26 +6.74
2 Libertas 21 14 1 6 43 57 26 +31 40.39 +2.61
3 Domagnano 21 12 6 3 42 42 20 +22 41.59 +0.41
4 Murata 21 11 5 5 38 45 21 +24 44.52 -6.52
5 La Fiorita 20 11 3 6 36 38 23 +15 28.76 +7.24
6 Pennarossa 20 10 4 6 34 30 24 +6 39.80 -5.80
7 Folgore Falciano 21 9 6 6 33 32 32 0 29.12 +3.88
8 Virtus 20 9 3 8 30 35 30 +5 25.01 +4.99
9 Tre Penne 20 9 3 8 30 30 26 +4 33.37 -3.37
10 Faetano 21 7 3 11 24 27 46 -19 24.21 -0.21
11 Juvenes Dogana 21 6 5 10 23 28 39 -11 22.40 +0.60
12 Cosmos 20 6 4 10 22 34 42 -8 19.41 +2.59
13 San Giovanni 21 4 1 16 13 27 61 -34 11.44 +1.56
14 Cailungo 20 2 6 12 12 19 42 -23 16.59 -4.59
15 Fiorentino 21 1 3 17 6 23 63 -40 18.34 -12.34

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 La Fiorita 36 28.76 +7.24
2 Tre Fiori 49 42.26 +6.74
3 Virtus 30 25.01 +4.99
4 Folgore Falciano 33 29.12 +3.88
5 Libertas 43 40.39 +2.61

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fiorentino 6 18.34 -12.34
2 Murata 38 44.52 -6.52
3 Pennarossa 34 39.80 -5.80
4 Cailungo 12 16.59 -4.59
5 Tre Penne 30 33.37 -3.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Fiori 11 Oct 15 – Mar 3 1 in 306
2 Juvenes Dogana 2 Sep 23 – Sep 29 1 in 26
3 Cosmos 3 Nov 18 – Dec 1 1 in 16
4 La Fiorita 4 Nov 11 – Dec 3 1 in 15
5 Libertas 4 Oct 17 – Nov 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fiorentino 10 Sep 17 – Dec 8 1 in 443
2 Murata 2 Sep 23 – Sep 30 1 in 77
3 Tre Penne 4 Oct 23 – Nov 24 1 in 70
4 Pennarossa 2 Mar 25 – Apr 1 1 in 29
5 Domagnano 3 Nov 25 – Dec 9 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cosmos 4 Mar 6 – Apr 2 1 in 48
2 Tre Fiori 15 Oct 15 – Apr 5 1 in 34
3 Folgore Falciano 6 Sep 16 – Oct 22 1 in 29
4 Domagnano 10 Feb 17 – Apr 22 1 in 16
5 Fiorentino 2 Mar 3 – Mar 6 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fiorentino 16 Sep 17 – Mar 24 1 in 97
2 Cailungo 11 Dec 2 – Apr 10 1 in 29
3 Pennarossa 3 Mar 18 – Apr 1 1 in 24
4 Murata 2 Sep 23 – Sep 30 1 in 14
5 Tre Penne 4 Oct 23 – Nov 24 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tre Fiori 1077 49 -5 9 10.8 -1.8
Libertas 991 43 +3 12 10.4 +1.6
Domagnano 1005 42 +8 11 10.4 +0.6
Murata 1070 38 +49 13 10.2 +2.8
La Fiorita 911 36 +35 12 8.1 +3.9
Pennarossa 975 34 -46 6 9.3 -3.3
Folgore Falciano 825 33 -36 4 6.7 -2.7
Tre Penne 913 30 +38 12 7.0 +5.0
Virtus 829 30 +3 6 6.5 -0.5
Faetano 740 24 -5 6 5.3 +0.7
Juvenes Dogana 722 23 -3 6 6.4 -0.4
Cosmos 748 22 -18 6 5.1 +0.9
San Giovanni 547 13 -6 3 3.3 -0.3
Cailungo 673 12 -4 3 3.6 -0.6
Fiorentino 624 6 -11 3 4.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FIO FF JD LF LIB MUR PEN SG TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-1
0.51
0-1-0
1.02
0-1-0
1.57
0-1-0
0.93
1-0-0
1.24
1-0-1
1.42
0-0-1
0.50
0-1-0
0.40
0-0-2
0.97
0-0-1
1.97
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
1.38
0-1-1
1.91
Cosmos
1-1-0
3.25
 —
0-1-0
0.54
0-0-1
1.28
1-0-0
1.56
1-0-0
0.83
0-0-1
1.46
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-1
0.65
0-0-1
0.49
1-1-0
1.08
1-0-0
1.97
0-0-2
0.91
1-1-0
1.33
0-0-2
2.25
Domagnano
1-0-0
2.34
0-1-0
2.31
 —
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.62
0-2-0
4.00
1-1-0
4.61
1-0-0
1.78
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.36
0-0-1
1.36
2-0-0
5.14
0-0-1
1.09
1-0-0
1.61
0-0-1
2.15
Faetano
0-1-0
1.81
1-0-0
1.55
0-0-2
1.32
 —
2-0-0
3.42
0-1-1
2.32
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-1
1.04
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
1.03
0-0-1
0.61
1-0-1
4.24
0-0-1
0.55
0-0-1
0.91
1-0-0
1.20
Fiorentino
0-1-0
1.25
0-0-1
1.27
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
2.24
 —
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-0
0.65
0-0-2
0.97
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-1
0.40
0-0-2
3.78
0-0-1
0.30
0-1-0
0.53
0-0-1
0.89
Folgore Falciano
0-1-0
1.90
0-0-1
2.00
0-2-0
1.67
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.10
 —
1-0-1
3.77
1-0-0
1.24
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
1.43
0-1-0
0.75
1-1-0
4.63
0-0-1
0.61
1-0-0
0.95
1-0-0
1.40
Juvenes Dogana
0-0-1
1.59
1-0-0
1.36
0-1-1
1.08
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
3.29
1-0-1
1.89
 —
0-0-1
0.85
0-0-2
1.25
1-1-0
0.89
0-1-0
0.54
2-0-0
3.96
0-1-0
0.39
0-1-0
0.74
0-0-1
1.06
La Fiorita
1-0-1
4.25
2-0-0
3.73
0-0-1
1.04
1-0-0
1.79
0-1-0
2.19
0-0-1
1.58
1-0-0
1.98
 —
1-0-0
0.93
0-1-0
0.89
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-0
2.31
1-0-1
1.44
1-0-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.21
Libertas
1-0-0
2.35
1-0-0
2.19
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
4.73
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
4.44
0-0-1
1.90
 —
0-0-2
2.30
0-0-1
1.30
2-0-0
5.07
0-0-1
1.09
1-0-0
1.62
1-0-0
1.98
Murata
0-1-0
2.46
1-0-0
2.36
0-1-1
3.30
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
5.02
1-0-1
4.24
0-1-1
4.82
0-1-0
1.94
2-0-0
3.36
 —
1-0-0
1.42
2-0-0
5.25
0-0-1
1.49
0-0-1
1.81
1-0-0
2.05
Pennarossa
2-0-0
4.73
0-1-1
4.61
1-0-0
1.47
1-0-0
2.23
1-0-0
2.46
0-1-0
2.08
0-1-0
2.31
1-0-1
3.74
1-0-0
1.53
0-0-1
1.41
 —
1-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
3.54
0-1-1
4.32
San Giovanni
1-0-0
0.86
0-0-1
0.87
0-0-2
0.60
1-0-1
1.44
2-0-0
1.88
0-1-1
1.07
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-1
0.53
0-0-2
0.66
0-0-2
0.51
0-0-1
0.27
 —
0-0-1
0.25
0-0-1
0.41
0-0-1
0.59
Tre Fiori
2-0-0
4.85
2-0-0
4.79
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
2.29
1-0-0
2.57
1-0-0
2.23
0-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
4.23
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
1.33
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-0
2.64
 —
1-0-1
3.73
2-0-0
4.37
Tre Penne
2-0-0
4.30
0-1-1
4.35
0-0-1
1.21
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
2.32
0-0-1
1.88
0-1-0
2.10
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-1
1.20
1-0-0
1.02
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-0
2.45
1-0-1
1.93
 —
1-0-1
3.66
Virtus
1-1-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-0
0.69
0-0-1
1.63
1-0-0
1.94
0-0-1
1.42
1-0-0
1.77
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-1
0.85
0-0-1
0.79
1-1-0
1.36
1-0-0
2.25
0-0-2
1.31
1-0-1
2.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +10.5
Allowed 0.85 -7.9
Differential 0.94 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.84%6.17%3.57%4.22%2.92%0.65%23.38%
16.17%7.14%8.12%4.87%3.25%2.27%31.82%
23.57%8.12%2.60%2.60%1.30%0.32%18.51%
34.22%4.87%2.60%1.95%0.32%0.32%14.29%
42.92%3.25%1.30%0.32%—0.32%8.12%
5+0.65%2.27%0.32%0.32%0.32%—3.90%
Total23.38%31.82%18.51%14.29%8.12%3.90%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.66 +0.00
SD 1.47 1.47 2.25
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%—35.00%
1—15.00%20.00%——5.00%40.00%
2—5.00%5.00%10.00%——20.00%
3——5.00%———5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%25.00%35.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.10 -1.15
SD 0.89 1.55 1.73
CV 0.93 0.74 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%5.00%—5.00%—25.00%
1—10.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
2————5.00%5.00%10.00%
3—5.00%10.00%———15.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total15.00%30.00%25.00%5.00%15.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.70 2.10 -0.40
SD 1.66 1.71 2.58
CV 0.98 0.82 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.05%—————19.05%
14.76%9.52%4.76%4.76%——23.81%
29.52%9.52%—4.76%——23.81%
34.76%14.29%————19.05%
4———4.76%——4.76%
5+—9.52%————9.52%
Total38.10%42.86%4.76%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.95 +1.05
SD 1.64 1.02 1.69
CV 0.82 1.07 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%—9.52%14.29%4.76%—33.33%
19.52%9.52%4.76%——9.52%33.33%
24.76%———4.76%—9.52%
34.76%9.52%4.76%———19.05%
4—————4.76%4.76%
5+———————
Total23.81%19.05%19.05%14.29%9.52%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.19 -0.90
SD 1.27 1.94 2.32
CV 0.99 0.89 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.76%9.52%9.52%4.76%4.76%33.33%
1——14.29%9.52%9.52%4.76%38.10%
2——14.29%4.76%——19.05%
3—————4.76%4.76%
4——4.76%———4.76%
5+———————
Total—4.76%42.86%23.81%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 3.00 -1.90
SD 1.09 1.41 1.87
CV 1.00 0.47 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
19.52%9.52%—4.76%14.29%—38.10%
2—14.29%4.76%———19.05%
34.76%4.76%4.76%4.76%——19.05%
4—4.76%————4.76%
5+———————
Total23.81%38.10%14.29%9.52%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.36 1.79
CV 0.77 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%—4.76%——19.05%
1—9.52%14.29%4.76%9.52%4.76%42.86%
29.52%9.52%——4.76%—23.81%
3—9.52%—4.76%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.05%33.33%14.29%14.29%14.29%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.86 -0.52
SD 0.97 1.53 1.83
CV 0.72 0.82 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.00%————15.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%——30.00%
310.00%15.00%—5.00%——30.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%10.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 1.15 +0.75
SD 1.17 0.99 1.65
CV 0.61 0.86 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%9.52%——4.76%—19.05%
19.52%—9.52%———19.05%
2—4.76%——4.76%—9.52%
34.76%—————4.76%
4—28.57%————28.57%
5+—14.29%4.76%———19.05%
Total19.05%57.14%14.29%—9.52%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 1.24 +1.48
SD 2.08 1.09 2.46
CV 0.77 0.88 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%——4.76%—19.05%
19.52%9.52%4.76%4.76%——28.57%
2—4.76%————4.76%
314.29%4.76%—4.76%4.76%—28.57%
414.29%—————14.29%
5+4.76%—————4.76%
Total52.38%23.81%4.76%9.52%9.52%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.00 +1.14
SD 1.80 1.38 2.52
CV 0.84 1.38 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%—5.00%——15.00%
115.00%15.00%—5.00%——35.00%
2—25.00%5.00%10.00%——40.00%
35.00%—————5.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%5.00%20.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.20 +0.30
SD 1.00 1.06 1.59
CV 0.67 0.88 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.52%14.29%4.76%4.76%33.33%
1——19.05%9.52%9.52%4.76%42.86%
24.76%4.76%————9.52%
3———4.76%——4.76%
4———————
5+———4.76%4.76%—9.52%
Total4.76%4.76%28.57%33.33%19.05%9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.90 -1.62
SD 1.62 1.34 2.11
CV 1.26 0.46 —
Max 6 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
115.00%—5.00%———20.00%
220.00%10.00%————30.00%
35.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%——25.00%
45.00%—5.00%———10.00%
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total45.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 0.85 +1.40
SD 1.45 0.93 1.64
CV 0.64 1.10 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%15.00%——5.00%—25.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%——35.00%
2—15.00%5.00%———20.00%
310.00%—————10.00%
4——5.00%———5.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total30.00%35.00%15.00%15.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.30 +0.20
SD 1.40 1.22 2.09
CV 0.93 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%—30.00%
15.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%——25.00%
2—5.00%—5.00%——10.00%
3——10.00%———10.00%
410.00%10.00%5.00%———25.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%35.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.50 +0.25
SD 1.62 1.15 2.22
CV 0.92 0.76 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Murata 1166 38 44.52 -6.52 15.0% 30 34 41 44 49 54 58
Tre Fiori 1075 49 42.26 +6.74 90.0% 31 33 38 42 47 50 54
Domagnano 977 42 41.59 +0.41 61.0% 28 33 38 41 45 51 59
Libertas 970 43 40.39 +2.61 73.0% 19 29 37 40 44 50 58
Pennarossa 953 34 39.80 -5.80 23.0% 27 29 35 40 43 51 55
Tre Penne 913 30 33.37 -3.37 36.0% 20 22 29 32 38 44 51
La Fiorita 889 36 28.76 +7.24 94.0% 14 19 26 29 31 38 42
Virtus 829 30 25.01 +4.99 84.0% 13 16 20 25 29 35 39
Folgore Falciano 825 33 29.12 +3.88 82.0% 18 22 25 29 32 38 43
Cosmos 748 22 19.41 +2.59 77.0% 3 10 16 19 22 29 35
Faetano 740 24 24.21 -0.21 55.0% 8 16 20 23 28 33 38
Juvenes Dogana 722 23 22.40 +0.60 60.0% 7 14 18 23 26 33 38
Cailungo 673 12 16.59 -4.59 21.0% 6 9 13 17 20 25 32
Fiorentino 624 6 18.34 -12.34 1.0% 6 10 15 18 22 27 31
San Giovanni 547 13 11.44 +1.56 67.0% 2 4 8 11 15 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.65%
Clear Edge
41.56%17.53%40.91%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 2.26 Elo pts.
181 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.01+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.0
Open
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Tre Fiori, 1st of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Runaway
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.55 * Some Luck: 4.55 to 6.83 * Lucky: 6.83 to 9.11 * Wild Swing: 9.11 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.29 * Close: 1.29 to 1.94 * Off: 1.94 to 2.59 * Way Off: 2.59 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.26 points
Some Luck
05.6914
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.624
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
94.00%
La Fiorita
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
1.00%
Fiorentino
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 164.95
1.95
Strong Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
81%
Clear Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Few
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.92
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.71
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Murata 4
La Fiorita 0
Domagnano 7
Pennarossa 6

Second Round

Tre Fiori 3
Domagnano 0
Libertas 2
Murata 1

Third Round

Domagnano 11
La Fiorita 10
Murata 3
Pennarossa 0

Quarterfinals

Tre Fiori 1
Libertas 0

Sim: 7.0%

Murata 4
Domagnano 0

Semifinals

Murata 5
Libertas 0

Sim: 7.0%

Finals

Murata 4
Tre Fiori 0

Sim: 8.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Tre Fiori56.00%28.00%15.00%1.00%————
Libertas26.00%32.00%32.00%7.00%1.00%—2.00%—
Domagnano24.00%37.00%34.00%5.00%————
Murata49.00%28.00%20.00%2.00%1.00%———
La Fiorita1.00%7.00%19.00%47.00%19.00%6.00%1.00%—
Pennarossa33.00%43.00%15.00%9.00%————
Folgore Falciano1.00%3.00%8.00%50.00%25.00%11.00%2.00%—
Virtus—2.00%12.00%18.00%36.00%21.00%11.00%—
Tre Penne10.00%19.00%36.00%19.00%12.00%4.00%——
Faetano——1.00%20.00%35.00%27.00%16.00%1.00%
Juvenes Dogana——4.00%12.00%26.00%34.00%18.00%6.00%
Cosmos—1.00%1.00%4.00%19.00%47.00%28.00%—
San Giovanni————4.00%2.00%26.00%68.00%
Cailungo——2.00%2.00%14.00%22.00%60.00%—
Fiorentino——1.00%4.00%8.00%26.00%36.00%25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Cailungo 98.00%
Cosmos 98.00%
Domagnano —
Faetano 99.00%
Fiorentino 99.00%
Folgore Falciano 88.00%
Juvenes Dogana 96.00%
La Fiorita —
Libertas —
Murata —
Pennarossa —
San Giovanni 100%
Tre Fiori —
Tre Penne 35.00%
Virtus 86.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cosmos0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Domagnano46.7%15.00%52.6%19.00%28.6%14.00%38.1%21.00%0.0%1.00%
Faetano100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano0.0%1.00%50.0%8.00%50.0%2.00%60.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%
Juvenes Dogana0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita53.3%15.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%14.00%55.6%9.00%
Libertas100.0%1.00%50.0%14.00%82.4%17.00%36.4%11.00%50.0%18.00%33.3%6.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%44.4%9.00%66.7%12.00%50.0%6.00%92.3%13.00%0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa47.4%19.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%8.00%17.6%17.00%33.3%12.00%
Tre Fiori71.4%14.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%63.6%11.00%50.0%6.00%
Tre Penne61.9%21.00%40.0%5.00%50.0%18.00%7.7%13.00%
Virtus100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%6.00%100.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cosmos100.0%1.00%
Domagnano50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%70.0%10.00%35.3%17.00%33.3%12.00%57.1%7.00%100.0%1.00%
Faetano0.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%2.00%
La Fiorita100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%25.0%4.00%28.6%7.00%50.0%4.00%
Libertas30.0%10.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%41.7%12.00%62.5%8.00%38.9%18.00%57.1%7.00%
Murata64.7%17.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%66.7%3.00%58.3%12.00%53.3%15.00%35.0%20.00%87.5%8.00%100.0%2.00%
Pennarossa66.7%12.00%75.0%4.00%37.5%8.00%46.7%15.00%9.1%11.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Tre Fiori0.0%1.00%42.9%7.00%100.0%2.00%71.4%7.00%61.1%18.00%65.0%20.00%90.9%11.00%76.9%13.00%100.0%2.00%
Tre Penne0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%42.9%7.00%12.5%8.00%0.0%1.00%23.1%13.00%100.0%1.00%
Virtus0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cosmos0.0%1.00%
Domagnano100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%58.3%12.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Faetano
Folgore Falciano50.0%2.00%
La Fiorita0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%
Libertas100.0%2.00%18.2%11.00%66.7%6.00%42.9%7.00%0.0%1.00%
Murata66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%81.8%11.00%85.7%7.00%40.0%20.00%80.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa0.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%14.3%7.00%50.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori41.7%12.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%6.00%57.1%7.00%60.0%20.00%50.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%
Tre Penne0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Virtus100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
Tre Fiori 100% 90.95% 31.60%
Murata 86.43% 45.26% 25.44%
Libertas 95.95% 47.61% 15.75%
Domagnano 67.08% 29.74% 13.42%
Pennarossa 57.42% 23.02% 9.24%
La Fiorita 38.07% 12.43% 4.56%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre Fiori
Domagnano53.9%124.50%
La Fiorita30.6%124.50%
Libertas38.5%249.00%
Murata69.4%124.50%
Pennarossa46.1%124.50%
Tre Fiori61.5%249.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre Fiori
Domagnano50.0%25.83%40.8%41.25%
La Fiorita38.7%14.53%28.9%23.54%
Libertas50.0%25.83%61.3%14.53%41.8%32.87%53.1%22.72%
Murata58.2%32.87%48.8%53.56%
Pennarossa46.9%22.72%35.6%34.70%
Tre Fiori59.2%41.25%71.1%23.54%51.2%53.56%64.4%34.70%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre Fiori
Domagnano61.7%3.03%50.2%5.33%41.3%11.14%41.7%10.25%
La Fiorita38.3%3.03%40.6%2.79%42.1%2.04%30.8%4.57%
Libertas49.8%5.33%59.4%2.79%40.4%9.09%51.4%4.31%37.8%14.69%
Murata58.7%11.14%59.6%9.09%64.9%8.93%47.8%16.10%
Pennarossa57.9%2.04%48.6%4.31%35.1%8.93%36.5%7.74%
Tre Fiori58.3%10.25%69.2%4.57%62.2%14.69%52.2%16.10%63.5%7.74%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2006-09-15 Murata L 0-322.5 568 1075 4.07% 11.52% 84.41%-2.78 -2.4 0
2006-09-15 @ San Giovanni W 3-022.5 1075 568 84.41% 11.52% 4.07%+2.78 +2.3 3
2006-09-16 Faetano D 1-154.8 818 780 46.97% 17.41% 35.62%+0.22 -0.5 1
2006-09-16 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-154.8 780 818 35.62% 17.41% 46.97%-0.22 +0.5 1
2006-09-16 Juvenes Dogana W 5-131.1 946 737 66.73% 16.16% 17.12%+1.17 +11.2 3
2006-09-16 @ Libertas L 1-531.1 737 946 17.12% 16.16% 66.73%-1.17 -11.2 0
2006-09-16 Pennarossa W 3-258.1 795 1014 16.72% 16.10% 67.19%-1.20 +11.5 3
2006-09-16 @ Virtus L 2-358.1 1014 795 67.19% 16.10% 16.72%+1.20 -11.5 0
2006-09-17 Cosmos D 0-051.5 945 711 68.86% 15.86% 15.28%+1.30 -2.8 1
2006-09-17 @ Tre Penne D 0-051.5 711 945 15.28% 15.86% 68.86%-1.30 +2.8 1
2006-09-17 Domagnano L 0-230.2 739 959 16.71% 16.10% 67.20%-1.20 -7.0 0
2006-09-17 @ Fiorentino W 2-030.2 959 739 67.20% 16.10% 16.71%+1.20 +7.0 3
2006-09-18 Tre Fiori L 2-341.5 730 1008 12.62% 15.32% 72.06%-1.52 -2.5 0
2006-09-18 @ Cailungo W 3-241.5 1008 730 72.06% 15.32% 12.62%+1.52 +2.5 3
2006-09-22 Faetano L 2-348.8 733 780 34.92% 17.40% 47.68%-0.25 -6.4 0
2006-09-22 @ Fiorentino W 3-248.8 780 733 47.68% 17.40% 34.92%+0.25 +6.4 4
2006-09-22 Tre Fiori W 2-044.5 824 1011 19.45% 16.46% 64.09%-1.02 +23.2 3
2006-09-22 @ La Fiorita L 0-244.5 1011 824 64.09% 16.46% 19.45%+1.02 -23.2 3
2006-09-23 Juvenes Dogana L 1-352.9 1077 726 77.22% 14.13% 8.65%+1.95 -23.9 3
2006-09-23 @ Murata W 3-152.9 726 1077 8.65% 14.13% 77.22%-1.95 +23.9 3
2006-09-23 Libertas W 1-040.7 966 958 42.75% 17.46% 39.80%+0.06 +8.0 6
2006-09-23 @ Domagnano L 0-140.7 958 966 39.80% 17.46% 42.75%-0.06 -8.0 3
2006-09-23 Pennarossa D 1-155.4 714 1003 12.03% 15.17% 72.80%-1.58 +2.9 2
2006-09-23 @ Cosmos D 1-155.4 1003 714 72.80% 15.17% 12.03%+1.58 -2.9 1
2006-09-24 Folgore Falciano D 3-364.7 566 818 14.36% 15.69% 69.95%-1.38 +1.6 1
2006-09-24 @ San Giovanni D 3-364.7 818 566 69.95% 15.69% 14.36%+1.38 -1.6 2
2006-09-24 Tre Penne L 0-327.8 727 942 17.03% 16.14% 66.83%-1.18 -10.3 0
2006-09-24 @ Cailungo W 3-027.8 942 727 66.83% 16.14% 17.03%+1.18 +10.3 4
2006-09-29 Cailungo D 1-154.7 717 717 41.62% 17.46% 40.92%+0.01 -0.0 3
2006-09-29 @ Cosmos D 1-154.7 717 717 40.92% 17.46% 41.62%-0.01 +0.0 1
2006-09-29 Fiorentino W 3-142.0 750 726 44.92% 17.44% 37.64%+0.14 +12.5 6
2006-09-29 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-342.0 726 750 37.64% 17.44% 44.92%-0.14 -12.5 0
2006-09-30 Folgore Falciano L 0-149.0 1053 816 69.16% 15.82% 15.02%+1.32 -13.2 3
2006-09-30 @ Murata W 1-049.0 816 1053 15.02% 15.82% 69.16%-1.32 +13.2 5
2006-09-30 San Giovanni W 4-129.2 950 568 78.93% 13.63% 7.45%+2.12 +3.8 6
2006-09-30 @ Libertas L 1-429.2 568 950 7.45% 13.63% 78.93%-2.12 -3.8 1
2006-09-30 Tre Penne W 1-039.0 1000 953 48.21% 17.38% 34.40%+0.27 +7.1 4
2006-09-30 @ Pennarossa L 0-139.0 953 1000 34.40% 17.38% 48.21%-0.27 -7.1 4
2006-10-01 Domagnano L 1-630.9 787 974 19.40% 16.46% 64.15%-1.02 -15.5 4
2006-10-01 @ Faetano W 6-130.9 974 787 64.15% 16.46% 19.40%+1.02 +15.5 9
2006-10-01 La Fiorita D 1-154.8 807 848 35.85% 17.41% 46.74%-0.21 +0.5 4
2006-10-01 @ Virtus D 1-154.8 848 807 46.74% 17.41% 35.85%+0.21 -0.5 4
2006-10-13 Domagnano D 1-155.0 829 989 21.89% 16.72% 61.39%-0.87 +1.8 6
2006-10-13 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-155.0 989 829 61.39% 16.72% 21.89%+0.87 -1.8 10
2006-10-13 Libertas W 1-037.5 1040 953 53.39% 17.22% 29.39%+0.49 +6.2 6
2006-10-13 @ Murata L 0-137.5 953 1040 29.39% 17.22% 53.39%-0.49 -6.2 6
2006-10-14 Cosmos W 4-029.2 847 717 58.59% 16.93% 24.47%+0.73 +18.8 7
2006-10-14 @ La Fiorita L 0-429.2 717 847 24.47% 16.93% 58.59%-0.73 -18.8 3
2006-10-14 Fiorentino W 5-355.2 564 714 22.92% 16.81% 60.27%-0.81 +16.0 4
2006-10-14 @ San Giovanni L 3-555.2 714 564 60.27% 16.81% 22.92%+0.81 -16.0 0
2006-10-14 Juvenes Dogana W 3-035.0 771 762 42.93% 17.46% 39.62%+0.06 +21.9 7
2006-10-14 @ Faetano L 0-335.0 762 771 39.62% 17.46% 42.93%-0.06 -21.9 6
2006-10-15 Cailungo W 4-024.8 1007 717 73.23% 15.09% 11.68%+1.61 +9.3 7
2006-10-15 @ Pennarossa L 0-424.8 717 1007 11.68% 15.09% 73.23%-1.61 -9.3 1
2006-10-15 Virtus W 3-028.7 988 807 63.96% 16.48% 19.56%+1.01 +11.7 6
2006-10-15 @ Tre Fiori L 0-328.7 807 988 19.56% 16.48% 63.96%-1.01 -11.7 4
2006-10-17 Domagnano L 3-456.6 1046 987 49.78% 17.35% 32.87%+0.34 -8.5 6
2006-10-17 @ Murata W 4-356.6 987 1046 32.87% 17.35% 49.78%-0.34 +8.5 13
2006-10-17 Libertas L 1-532.9 793 947 22.49% 16.77% 60.74%-0.84 -14.5 7
2006-10-17 @ Faetano W 5-132.9 947 793 60.74% 16.77% 22.49%+0.84 +14.5 9
2006-10-17 Tre Penne L 0-137.9 866 946 30.83% 17.28% 51.89%-0.43 -6.5 7
2006-10-17 @ La Fiorita W 1-037.9 946 866 51.89% 17.28% 30.83%+0.43 +6.5 7
2006-10-18 Cailungo D 0-051.1 795 708 53.51% 17.21% 29.28%+0.50 -1.2 5
2006-10-18 @ Virtus D 0-051.1 708 795 29.28% 17.21% 53.51%-0.50 +1.2 2
2006-10-18 Fiorentino W 2-140.4 831 698 58.97% 16.91% 24.12%+0.75 +4.9 9
2006-10-18 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-240.4 698 831 24.12% 16.91% 58.97%-0.75 -4.9 0
2006-10-18 Pennarossa W 1-041.7 999 1016 39.17% 17.45% 43.38%-0.08 +8.6 9
2006-10-18 @ Tre Fiori L 0-141.7 1016 999 43.38% 17.45% 39.17%+0.08 -8.6 7
2006-10-18 San Giovanni W 2-031.7 740 580 61.89% 16.68% 21.44%+0.90 +8.8 9
2006-10-18 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-231.7 580 740 21.44% 16.68% 61.89%-0.90 -8.8 4
2006-10-21 Fiorentino W 4-131.4 962 693 71.68% 15.39% 12.93%+1.50 +6.6 12
2006-10-21 @ Libertas L 1-431.4 693 962 12.93% 15.39% 71.68%-1.50 -6.6 0
2006-10-21 San Giovanni W 3-131.1 996 571 81.10% 12.89% 6.01%+2.36 +2.1 16
2006-10-21 @ Domagnano L 1-331.1 571 996 6.01% 12.89% 81.10%-2.36 -2.1 4
2006-10-21 Virtus L 2-443.6 698 794 28.83% 17.19% 53.97%-0.52 -8.9 3
2006-10-21 @ Cosmos W 4-243.6 794 698 53.97% 17.19% 28.83%+0.52 +8.9 8
2006-10-22 Folgore Falciano L 1-437.0 749 836 29.91% 17.24% 52.85%-0.47 -14.5 9
2006-10-22 @ Juvenes Dogana W 4-137.0 836 749 52.85% 17.24% 29.91%+0.47 +14.5 12
2006-10-22 Murata D 0-051.6 779 1038 13.85% 15.59% 70.57%-1.42 +3.0 8
2006-10-22 @ Faetano D 0-051.6 1038 779 70.57% 15.59% 13.85%+1.42 -3.0 7
2006-10-23 La Fiorita W 1-035.3 1008 860 60.60% 16.79% 22.62%+0.83 +4.9 10
2006-10-23 @ Pennarossa L 0-135.3 860 1008 22.62% 16.79% 60.60%-0.83 -4.9 7
2006-10-23 Tre Fiori L 0-138.9 952 1008 33.86% 17.37% 48.77%-0.30 -7.0 7
2006-10-23 @ Tre Penne W 1-038.9 1008 952 48.77% 17.37% 33.86%+0.30 +7.0 12
2006-11-10 Juvenes Dogana D 0-051.7 998 734 71.27% 15.46% 13.26%+1.47 -3.1 17
2006-11-10 @ Domagnano D 0-051.7 734 998 13.26% 15.46% 71.27%-1.47 +3.1 10
2006-11-10 Virtus L 0-146.5 945 803 59.92% 16.84% 23.24%+0.80 -11.5 7
2006-11-10 @ Tre Penne W 1-046.5 803 945 23.24% 16.84% 59.92%-0.80 +11.5 11
2006-11-11 Faetano W 6-457.9 569 782 17.22% 16.17% 66.60%-1.16 +17.0 7
2006-11-11 @ San Giovanni L 4-657.9 782 569 66.60% 16.17% 17.22%+1.16 -17.0 8
2006-11-11 La Fiorita L 0-135.5 709 855 23.31% 16.84% 59.84%-0.79 -5.0 2
2006-11-11 @ Cailungo W 1-035.5 855 709 59.84% 16.84% 23.31%+0.79 +5.0 10
2006-11-11 Libertas L 1-435.9 850 968 26.30% 17.06% 56.65%-0.64 -13.0 12
2006-11-11 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-135.9 968 850 56.65% 17.06% 26.30%+0.64 +13.0 15
2006-11-12 Cosmos W 2-027.6 1015 689 75.62% 14.55% 9.83%+1.81 +4.1 15
2006-11-12 @ Tre Fiori L 0-227.6 689 1015 9.83% 14.55% 75.62%-1.81 -4.1 3
2006-11-12 Murata L 0-324.8 686 1035 8.97% 14.25% 76.78%-1.91 -5.4 0
2006-11-12 @ Fiorentino W 3-024.8 1035 686 76.78% 14.25% 8.97%+1.91 +5.4 10
2006-11-18 Cosmos L 1-446.2 838 685 61.05% 16.75% 22.20%+0.85 -27.1 12
2006-11-18 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-146.2 685 838 22.20% 16.75% 61.05%-0.85 +27.1 6
2006-11-18 Domagnano L 0-326.0 704 995 11.88% 15.14% 72.98%-1.59 -7.2 2
2006-11-18 @ Cailungo W 3-026.0 995 704 72.98% 15.14% 11.88%+1.59 +7.2 20
2006-11-18 Murata W 4-035.2 1019 1040 38.56% 17.45% 43.99%-0.11 +31.2 18
2006-11-18 @ Tre Fiori L 0-435.2 1040 1019 43.99% 17.45% 38.56%+0.11 -31.2 10
2006-11-19 Pennarossa D 1-155.4 737 1013 12.83% 15.37% 71.80%-1.51 +2.8 11
2006-11-19 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-155.4 1013 737 71.80% 15.37% 12.83%+1.51 -2.8 11
2006-11-19 Tre Penne W 2-143.6 981 933 48.30% 17.38% 34.32%+0.28 +6.7 18
2006-11-19 @ Libertas L 1-243.6 933 981 34.32% 17.38% 48.30%-0.28 -6.7 7
2006-11-20 Faetano L 0-240.1 815 765 48.56% 17.38% 34.06%+0.29 -17.9 11
2006-11-20 @ Virtus W 2-040.1 765 815 34.06% 17.38% 48.56%-0.29 +17.9 11
2006-11-20 San Giovanni W 3-026.3 860 586 72.03% 15.33% 12.65%+1.52 +7.7 13
2006-11-20 @ La Fiorita L 0-326.3 586 860 12.65% 15.33% 72.03%-1.52 -7.7 7
2006-11-24 Folgore Falciano L 1-347.7 927 810 57.00% 17.04% 25.96%+0.65 -17.9 7
2006-11-24 @ Tre Penne W 3-147.7 810 927 25.96% 17.04% 57.00%-0.65 +18.0 15
2006-11-24 Juvenes Dogana W 2-147.4 697 740 35.49% 17.41% 47.11%-0.23 +8.7 5
2006-11-24 @ Cailungo L 1-247.4 740 697 47.11% 17.41% 35.49%+0.23 -8.7 11
2006-11-25 Pennarossa W 1-041.0 1009 1010 41.50% 17.46% 41.04%+0.01 +8.2 13
2006-11-25 @ Murata L 0-141.0 1010 1009 41.04% 17.46% 41.50%-0.01 -8.2 11
2006-11-25 Tre Fiori L 0-229.0 783 1050 13.30% 15.47% 71.23%-1.46 -5.6 11
2006-11-25 @ Faetano W 2-029.0 1050 783 71.23% 15.47% 13.30%+1.46 +5.6 21
2006-11-25 Virtus L 2-357.9 1002 797 66.36% 16.20% 17.44%+1.15 -11.4 20
2006-11-25 @ Domagnano W 3-257.9 797 1002 17.44% 16.20% 66.36%-1.15 +11.4 14
2006-11-26 Fiorentino W 3-141.6 712 681 46.07% 17.42% 36.51%+0.19 +12.2 9
2006-11-26 @ Cosmos L 1-341.6 681 712 36.51% 17.42% 46.07%-0.19 -12.2 0
2006-11-26 La Fiorita L 1-250.4 988 867 57.51% 17.01% 25.49%+0.68 -10.4 18
2006-11-26 @ Libertas W 2-150.4 867 988 25.49% 17.01% 57.51%-0.68 +10.4 16
2006-12-01 Cosmos L 1-632.2 578 724 23.27% 16.84% 59.89%-0.79 -18.4 7
2006-12-01 @ San Giovanni W 6-132.2 724 578 59.89% 16.84% 23.27%+0.79 +18.4 12
2006-12-02 Cailungo D 0-051.2 828 705 57.78% 16.99% 25.23%+0.69 -1.6 16
2006-12-02 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-051.2 705 828 25.23% 16.99% 57.78%-0.69 +1.7 6
2006-12-02 Tre Penne L 2-442.3 777 909 24.78% 16.96% 58.26%-0.71 -7.8 11
2006-12-02 @ Faetano W 4-242.3 909 777 58.26% 16.96% 24.78%+0.71 +7.8 10
2006-12-02 Virtus L 0-429.0 668 808 23.95% 16.90% 59.15%-0.76 -18.5 0
2006-12-02 @ Fiorentino W 4-029.0 808 668 59.15% 16.90% 23.95%+0.76 +18.5 17
2006-12-03 Domagnano W 2-145.2 1002 991 43.12% 17.45% 39.42%+0.07 +7.5 14
2006-12-03 @ Pennarossa L 1-245.2 991 1002 39.42% 17.45% 43.12%-0.07 -7.5 20
2006-12-03 Juvenes Dogana W 2-140.0 878 732 60.39% 16.80% 22.81%+0.82 +4.7 19
2006-12-03 @ La Fiorita L 1-240.0 732 878 22.81% 16.80% 60.39%-0.82 -4.7 11
2006-12-04 Libertas W 4-244.1 1056 978 52.30% 17.26% 30.44%+0.44 +9.3 24
2006-12-04 @ Tre Fiori L 2-444.1 978 1056 30.44% 17.26% 52.30%-0.44 -9.3 18
2006-12-08 La Fiorita D 3-364.4 1017 882 59.13% 16.90% 23.97%+0.76 -1.0 14
2006-12-08 @ Murata D 3-364.4 882 1017 23.97% 16.90% 59.13%-0.76 +1.0 20
2006-12-08 Pennarossa L 0-324.6 650 1009 8.53% 14.08% 77.39%-1.97 -5.1 0
2006-12-08 @ Fiorentino W 3-024.6 1009 650 77.39% 14.08% 8.53%+1.97 +5.2 17
2006-12-09 Libertas L 2-535.9 743 968 16.24% 16.02% 67.74%-1.23 -7.2 12
2006-12-09 @ Cosmos W 5-235.9 968 743 67.74% 16.02% 16.24%+1.23 +7.2 21
2006-12-09 Tre Fiori L 1-339.8 983 1065 30.55% 17.27% 52.18%-0.44 -10.5 20
2006-12-09 @ Domagnano W 3-139.8 1065 983 52.18% 17.27% 30.55%+0.44 +10.5 27
2006-12-09 Tre Penne D 1-155.1 727 917 19.15% 16.43% 64.43%-1.03 +2.1 12
2006-12-09 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-155.1 917 727 64.43% 16.43% 19.15%+1.03 -2.1 11
2006-12-10 Cailungo W 2-043.4 560 707 23.19% 16.83% 59.98%-0.80 +21.8 10
2006-12-10 @ San Giovanni L 0-243.4 707 560 59.98% 16.83% 23.19%+0.80 -21.7 6
2006-12-10 Folgore Falciano L 2-350.8 826 827 41.56% 17.46% 40.98%+0.01 -7.4 17
2006-12-10 @ Virtus W 3-250.8 827 826 40.98% 17.46% 41.56%-0.01 +7.4 19
2007-02-16 Folgore Falciano D 2-260.2 1014 834 63.91% 16.48% 19.60%+1.01 -1.5 18
2007-02-16 @ Pennarossa D 2-260.2 834 1014 19.60% 16.48% 63.91%-1.01 +1.5 20
2007-02-16 Tre Fiori L 0-225.1 582 1076 4.34% 11.75% 83.92%-2.71 -1.7 10
2007-02-16 @ San Giovanni W 2-025.1 1076 582 83.92% 11.75% 4.34%+2.71 +1.7 30
2007-02-17 Cailungo D 2-259.9 645 685 35.93% 17.41% 46.65%-0.21 +0.3 1
2007-02-17 @ Fiorentino D 2-259.9 685 645 46.65% 17.41% 35.93%+0.21 -0.4 7
2007-02-17 La Fiorita W 3-139.3 973 883 53.72% 17.20% 29.07%+0.51 +10.0 23
2007-02-17 @ Domagnano L 1-339.3 883 973 29.07% 17.20% 53.72%-0.51 -10.0 20
2007-02-17 Virtus L 1-436.9 729 819 29.54% 17.23% 53.23%-0.48 -14.4 12
2007-02-17 @ Juvenes Dogana W 4-136.9 819 729 53.23% 17.23% 29.54%+0.48 +14.4 20
2007-02-18 Faetano L 0-139.8 736 769 36.85% 17.43% 45.72%-0.17 -7.5 12
2007-02-18 @ Cosmos W 1-039.8 769 736 45.72% 17.43% 36.85%+0.17 +7.5 14
2007-02-18 Murata W 2-149.7 915 1016 28.14% 17.16% 54.70%-0.55 +10.0 14
2007-02-18 @ Tre Penne L 1-249.7 1016 915 54.70% 17.16% 28.14%+0.55 -10.0 14
2007-02-23 Cailungo W 7-127.8 975 685 73.26% 15.08% 11.66%+1.62 +11.2 24
2007-02-23 @ Libertas L 1-727.8 685 975 11.66% 15.08% 73.26%-1.62 -11.2 7
2007-02-23 Murata L 0-428.0 833 1006 20.66% 16.60% 62.74%-0.94 -16.1 20
2007-02-23 @ Virtus W 4-028.0 1006 833 62.74% 16.60% 20.66%+0.94 +16.1 17
2007-02-24 Faetano W 2-137.4 1013 777 69.03% 15.84% 15.14%+1.31 +3.2 21
2007-02-24 @ Pennarossa L 1-237.4 777 1013 15.14% 15.84% 69.03%-1.31 -3.2 14
2007-02-24 Folgore Falciano L 0-142.8 873 836 46.91% 17.41% 35.68%+0.22 -9.2 20
2007-02-24 @ La Fiorita W 1-042.8 836 873 35.68% 17.41% 46.91%-0.22 +9.2 23
2007-02-24 San Giovanni W 5-023.8 924 580 76.80% 14.24% 8.96%+1.91 +8.7 17
2007-02-24 @ Tre Penne L 0-523.8 580 924 8.96% 14.24% 76.80%-1.91 -8.7 10
2007-02-25 Cosmos W 2-146.2 715 728 39.66% 17.46% 42.88%-0.06 +8.0 15
2007-02-25 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-246.2 728 715 42.88% 17.46% 39.66%+0.06 -8.0 12
2007-02-25 Fiorentino W 2-025.9 1077 645 81.45% 12.76% 5.79%+2.40 +2.4 33
2007-02-25 @ Tre Fiori L 0-225.9 645 1077 5.79% 12.76% 81.45%-2.40 -2.4 1
2007-03-02 Domagnano L 1-341.1 933 983 34.68% 17.39% 47.93%-0.26 -11.7 17
2007-03-02 @ Tre Penne W 3-141.1 983 933 47.93% 17.39% 34.68%+0.26 +11.7 26
2007-03-02 Pennarossa L 1-244.6 987 1016 37.46% 17.44% 45.10%-0.15 -7.2 24
2007-03-02 @ Libertas W 2-144.6 1016 987 45.10% 17.44% 37.46%+0.15 +7.2 24
2007-03-03 Fiorentino D 2-260.3 864 643 67.78% 16.02% 16.20%+1.23 -1.8 21
2007-03-03 @ La Fiorita D 2-260.3 643 864 16.20% 16.02% 67.78%-1.23 +1.8 2
2007-03-03 Folgore Falciano W 1-032.8 1080 845 68.94% 15.85% 15.21%+1.31 +3.4 36
2007-03-03 @ Tre Fiori L 0-132.8 845 1080 15.21% 15.85% 68.94%-1.31 -3.4 23
2007-03-03 Murata L 1-236.0 720 1023 11.25% 14.97% 73.78%-1.66 -2.4 12
2007-03-03 @ Cosmos W 2-136.0 1023 720 73.78% 14.97% 11.25%+1.66 +2.3 20
2007-03-04 Faetano D 1-154.8 674 774 28.35% 17.17% 54.48%-0.54 +1.2 8
2007-03-04 @ Cailungo D 1-154.8 774 674 54.48% 17.17% 28.35%+0.54 -1.2 15
2007-03-04 San Giovanni W 4-025.8 817 571 69.87% 15.70% 14.42%+1.37 +11.4 23
2007-03-04 @ Virtus L 0-425.8 571 817 14.42% 15.70% 69.87%-1.37 -11.4 10
2007-03-06 Domagnano D 0-051.7 718 995 12.73% 15.34% 71.93%-1.52 +3.1 13
2007-03-06 @ Cosmos D 0-051.7 995 718 71.93% 15.34% 12.73%+1.52 -3.1 27
2007-03-06 Fiorentino D 2-260.5 922 645 72.27% 15.28% 12.45%+1.54 -2.1 18
2007-03-06 @ Tre Penne D 2-260.5 645 922 12.45% 15.28% 72.27%-1.54 +2.1 3
2007-03-06 Juvenes Dogana D 3-365.2 1083 723 77.73% 13.98% 8.28%+2.00 -2.1 37
2007-03-06 @ Tre Fiori D 3-365.2 723 1083 8.28% 13.98% 77.73%-2.00 +2.1 16
2007-03-07 Cailungo D 1-155.7 1025 675 77.12% 14.16% 8.72%+1.94 -3.3 21
2007-03-07 @ Murata D 1-155.7 675 1025 8.72% 14.16% 77.12%-1.94 +3.3 9
2007-03-07 Faetano W 3-031.7 862 773 53.78% 17.20% 29.02%+0.51 +16.8 24
2007-03-07 @ La Fiorita L 0-331.7 773 862 29.02% 17.20% 53.78%-0.51 -16.8 15
2007-03-07 Libertas L 0-135.4 829 979 22.82% 16.80% 60.38%-0.82 -4.9 23
2007-03-07 @ Virtus W 1-035.4 979 829 60.38% 16.80% 22.82%+0.82 +4.9 27
2007-03-07 San Giovanni W 2-133.2 1023 560 82.84% 12.21% 4.95%+2.57 +1.0 27
2007-03-07 @ Pennarossa L 1-233.2 560 1023 4.95% 12.21% 82.84%-2.57 -1.0 10
2007-03-16 Fiorentino W 5-128.1 991 647 76.80% 14.24% 8.95%+1.91 +5.9 30
2007-03-16 @ Domagnano L 1-528.1 647 991 8.95% 14.24% 76.80%-1.91 -5.9 3
2007-03-16 Folgore Falciano L 0-332.1 756 842 30.06% 17.25% 52.69%-0.46 -17.3 15
2007-03-16 @ Faetano W 3-032.1 842 756 52.69% 17.25% 30.06%+0.46 +17.3 26
2007-03-17 Cailungo W 2-134.1 1081 678 80.02% 13.27% 6.71%+2.24 +1.4 40
2007-03-17 @ Tre Fiori L 1-234.1 678 1081 6.71% 13.27% 80.02%-2.24 -1.4 9
2007-03-17 San Giovanni W 3-023.0 1022 559 82.82% 12.22% 4.96%+2.57 +2.9 24
2007-03-17 @ Murata L 0-323.0 559 1022 4.96% 12.22% 82.82%-2.57 -2.9 10
2007-03-17 Tre Penne W 4-041.3 721 919 18.39% 16.33% 65.28%-1.08 +44.7 16
2007-03-17 @ Cosmos L 0-441.3 919 721 65.28% 16.33% 18.39%+1.08 -44.8 18
2007-03-18 Libertas L 0-132.3 725 984 13.82% 15.58% 70.60%-1.42 -3.1 16
2007-03-18 @ Juvenes Dogana W 1-032.3 984 725 70.60% 15.58% 13.82%+1.42 +3.1 30
2007-03-18 Virtus D 1-155.1 1024 824 65.86% 16.26% 17.87%+1.12 -2.2 28
2007-03-18 @ Pennarossa D 1-155.1 824 1024 17.87% 16.26% 65.86%-1.12 +2.2 24
2007-03-23 Cailungo W 2-138.4 875 677 65.65% 16.29% 18.06%+1.10 +3.8 21
2007-03-23 @ Tre Penne L 1-238.4 677 875 18.06% 16.29% 65.65%-1.10 -3.7 9
2007-03-23 San Giovanni W 2-135.9 859 556 74.13% 14.90% 10.98%+1.68 +2.3 29
2007-03-23 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-235.9 556 859 10.98% 14.90% 74.13%-1.68 -2.3 10
2007-03-24 Fiorentino W 1-037.1 738 641 54.73% 17.16% 28.11%+0.55 +6.0 18
2007-03-24 @ Faetano L 0-137.1 641 738 28.11% 17.16% 54.73%-0.55 -6.0 3
2007-03-24 La Fiorita W 2-138.3 1082 879 66.14% 16.23% 17.63%+1.13 +3.7 43
2007-03-24 @ Tre Fiori L 1-238.3 879 1082 17.63% 16.23% 66.14%-1.13 -3.7 24
2007-03-24 Murata D 0-051.8 722 1024 11.23% 14.97% 73.81%-1.66 +3.3 17
2007-03-24 @ Juvenes Dogana D 0-051.8 1024 722 73.81% 14.97% 11.23%+1.66 -3.3 25
2007-03-25 Cosmos L 2-359.0 1022 766 70.68% 15.57% 13.75%+1.43 -12.1 28
2007-03-25 @ Pennarossa W 3-259.0 766 1022 13.75% 15.57% 70.68%-1.43 +12.1 19
2007-03-25 Domagnano D 0-051.1 987 997 40.18% 17.46% 42.37%-0.04 +0.1 31
2007-03-25 @ Libertas D 0-051.1 997 987 42.37% 17.46% 40.18%+0.04 -0.1 31
2007-03-31 Libertas L 1-428.5 554 988 5.87% 12.81% 81.32%-2.38 -2.9 10
2007-03-31 @ San Giovanni W 4-128.5 988 554 81.32% 12.81% 5.87%+2.38 +2.9 34
2007-03-31 Murata L 1-337.0 861 1021 21.89% 16.72% 61.39%-0.87 -7.8 29
2007-03-31 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-137.0 1021 861 61.39% 16.72% 21.89%+0.87 +7.8 28
2007-03-31 Virtus W 2-143.5 876 826 48.51% 17.38% 34.11%+0.29 +6.6 27
2007-03-31 @ La Fiorita L 1-243.5 826 876 34.11% 17.38% 48.51%-0.29 -6.6 24
2007-04-01 Faetano W 2-029.2 997 744 70.42% 15.61% 13.97%+1.41 +5.8 34
2007-04-01 @ Domagnano L 0-229.2 744 997 13.97% 15.61% 70.42%-1.41 -5.8 18
2007-04-01 Pennarossa W 3-040.4 878 1010 24.83% 16.96% 58.21%-0.71 +30.7 24
2007-04-01 @ Tre Penne L 0-340.4 1010 878 58.21% 16.96% 24.83%+0.71 -30.7 28
2007-04-02 Cosmos L 2-346.6 673 778 27.80% 17.14% 55.05%-0.57 -5.3 9
2007-04-02 @ Cailungo W 3-246.6 778 673 55.05% 17.14% 27.80%+0.57 +5.3 22
2007-04-02 Juvenes Dogana W 4-250.9 635 725 29.53% 17.23% 53.24%-0.48 +15.1 6
2007-04-02 @ Fiorentino L 2-450.9 725 635 53.24% 17.23% 29.53%+0.48 -15.1 17
2007-04-05 Folgore Falciano D 0-051.3 1003 853 60.76% 16.77% 22.46%+0.84 -2.0 35
2007-04-05 @ Domagnano D 0-051.3 853 1003 22.46% 16.77% 60.76%-0.84 +2.0 30
2007-04-05 Libertas W 4-032.7 1029 990 47.01% 17.41% 35.58%+0.22 +26.1 31
2007-04-05 @ Murata L 0-432.7 990 1029 35.58% 17.41% 47.01%-0.22 -26.2 34
2007-04-05 Tre Fiori L 1-334.1 819 1086 13.36% 15.49% 71.15%-1.46 -4.8 24
2007-04-05 @ Virtus W 3-134.1 1086 819 71.15% 15.49% 13.36%+1.46 +4.8 46
2007-04-06 Faetano L 1-341.9 710 739 37.55% 17.44% 45.01%-0.15 -12.5 17
2007-04-06 @ Juvenes Dogana W 3-141.9 739 710 45.01% 17.44% 37.55%+0.15 +12.5 21
2007-04-06 Fiorentino W 2-149.6 551 650 28.44% 17.17% 54.39%-0.54 +9.9 13
2007-04-06 @ San Giovanni L 1-249.6 650 551 54.39% 17.17% 28.44%+0.54 -9.9 6
2007-04-06 La Fiorita L 1-339.1 783 882 28.45% 17.18% 54.38%-0.53 -9.8 22
2007-04-06 @ Cosmos W 3-139.1 882 783 54.38% 17.18% 28.45%+0.53 +9.8 30
2007-04-06 Pennarossa L 1-235.8 668 979 10.78% 14.84% 74.38%-1.71 -2.3 9
2007-04-06 @ Cailungo W 2-135.8 979 668 74.38% 14.84% 10.78%+1.71 +2.3 31
2007-04-10 Faetano W 3-027.7 964 751 67.06% 16.11% 16.82%+1.19 +10.2 37
2007-04-10 @ Libertas L 0-327.7 751 964 16.82% 16.11% 67.06%-1.19 -10.2 21
2007-04-10 Juvenes Dogana L 1-240.4 561 697 24.24% 16.92% 58.85%-0.74 -4.9 13
2007-04-10 @ San Giovanni W 2-140.4 697 561 58.85% 16.92% 24.24%+0.74 +4.9 20
2007-04-10 Murata D 1-154.8 1001 1055 34.11% 17.38% 48.51%-0.29 +0.6 36
2007-04-10 @ Domagnano D 1-154.8 1055 1001 48.51% 17.38% 34.11%+0.29 -0.6 32
2007-04-10 Virtus L 1-240.0 665 815 22.98% 16.82% 60.21%-0.81 -4.7 9
2007-04-10 @ Cailungo W 2-140.0 815 665 60.21% 16.82% 22.98%+0.81 +4.7 27
2007-04-11 Folgore Falciano L 1-238.0 640 855 17.02% 16.14% 66.84%-1.18 -3.5 6
2007-04-11 @ Fiorentino W 2-138.0 855 640 66.84% 16.14% 17.02%+1.18 +3.5 33
2007-04-11 La Fiorita L 1-343.9 909 892 44.04% 17.45% 38.52%+0.11 -14.3 24
2007-04-11 @ Tre Penne W 3-143.9 892 909 38.52% 17.45% 44.04%-0.11 +14.3 33
2007-04-11 Tre Fiori W 1-045.3 981 1091 27.23% 17.11% 55.66%-0.59 +10.8 34
2007-04-11 @ Pennarossa L 0-145.3 1091 981 55.66% 17.11% 27.23%+0.59 -10.8 46
2007-04-13 Cosmos W 4-138.5 819 773 48.05% 17.39% 34.56%+0.27 +16.5 30
2007-04-13 @ Virtus L 1-438.5 773 819 34.56% 17.39% 48.05%-0.27 -16.5 22
2007-04-13 Faetano W 4-024.3 1054 741 74.84% 14.73% 10.43%+1.74 +8.3 35
2007-04-13 @ Murata L 0-424.3 741 1054 10.43% 14.73% 74.84%-1.74 -8.3 21
2007-04-14 Juvenes Dogana L 0-243.8 859 702 61.50% 16.71% 21.79%+0.88 -22.3 33
2007-04-14 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-043.8 702 859 21.79% 16.71% 61.50%-0.88 +22.3 23
2007-04-14 Libertas L 1-430.0 636 974 9.46% 14.42% 76.12%-1.85 -4.8 6
2007-04-14 @ Fiorentino W 4-130.0 974 636 76.12% 14.42% 9.46%+1.85 +4.8 40
2007-04-14 Tre Penne L 1-252.4 1080 895 64.43% 16.43% 19.14%+1.03 -11.6 46
2007-04-14 @ Tre Fiori W 2-152.4 895 1080 19.14% 16.43% 64.43%-1.03 +11.6 27
2007-04-15 Domagnano L 1-233.5 556 1002 5.53% 12.60% 81.88%-2.45 -1.1 13
2007-04-15 @ San Giovanni W 2-133.5 1002 556 81.88% 12.60% 5.53%+2.45 +1.1 39
2007-04-15 Pennarossa W 3-146.4 906 992 30.07% 17.25% 52.68%-0.46 +16.7 36
2007-04-15 @ La Fiorita L 1-346.4 992 906 52.68% 17.25% 30.07%+0.46 -16.7 34
2007-04-21 Cailungo L 2-359.1 923 661 71.15% 15.49% 13.36%+1.46 -12.2 36
2007-04-21 @ La Fiorita W 3-259.1 661 923 13.36% 15.49% 71.15%-1.46 +12.1 12
2007-04-21 Tre Fiori L 1-627.8 757 1069 10.75% 14.83% 74.42%-1.71 -8.7 22
2007-04-21 @ Cosmos W 6-127.8 1069 757 74.42% 14.83% 10.75%+1.71 +8.7 49
2007-04-21 Tre Penne L 0-138.3 836 906 31.93% 17.32% 50.75%-0.38 -6.7 30
2007-04-21 @ Virtus W 1-038.3 906 836 50.75% 17.32% 31.93%+0.38 +6.7 30
2007-04-22 Domagnano L 1-236.5 725 1003 12.64% 15.32% 72.03%-1.52 -2.6 23
2007-04-22 @ Juvenes Dogana W 2-136.5 1003 725 72.03% 15.32% 12.64%+1.52 +2.6 42
2007-04-22 Fiorentino W 7-023.8 1063 632 81.40% 12.78% 5.83%+2.39 +7.6 38
2007-04-22 @ Murata L 0-723.8 632 1063 5.83% 12.78% 81.40%-2.39 -7.6 6
2007-04-22 Folgore Falciano W 4-134.9 979 837 60.00% 16.83% 23.17%+0.80 +11.6 43
2007-04-22 @ Libertas L 1-434.9 837 979 23.17% 16.83% 60.00%-0.80 -11.6 33
2007-04-22 San Giovanni W 3-136.3 733 555 63.72% 16.50% 19.78%+1.00 +7.1 24
2007-04-22 @ Faetano L 1-336.3 555 733 19.78% 16.50% 63.72%-1.00 -7.1 13

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2007-05-03 Murata L 0-428.3 911 1070 21.72% 16.70% 61.58%-0.88 -16.9 0-1
2007-05-03 @ La Fiorita W 4-028.3 1070 911 61.58% 16.70% 21.72%+0.88 +16.9 1-0
2007-05-03 Pennarossa W 7-655.2 1005 975 45.55% 17.43% 37.02%+0.17 +6.4 1-0
2007-05-03 @ Domagnano L 6-755.2 975 1005 37.02% 17.43% 45.55%-0.17 -6.4 0-1
2007-05-07 Domagnano W 3-032.8 1077 1012 50.33% 17.33% 32.34%+0.36 +18.5 1-0
2007-05-07 @ Tre Fiori L 0-332.8 1012 1077 32.34% 17.33% 50.33%-0.36 -18.4 1-1
2007-05-07 Murata W 2-149.6 991 1087 28.52% 17.18% 54.31%-0.53 +9.9 1-0
2007-05-07 @ Libertas L 1-249.6 1087 991 54.31% 17.18% 28.52%+0.53 -9.9 1-1
2007-05-11 La Fiorita W 11-1052.5 993 894 54.70% 17.16% 28.14%+0.55 +5.0 2-1
2007-05-11 @ Domagnano L 10-1152.5 894 993 28.14% 17.16% 54.70%-0.55 -5.0 0-2
2007-05-11 Pennarossa W 3-031.1 1077 969 55.78% 17.10% 27.11%+0.60 +15.8 2-1
2007-05-11 @ Murata L 0-331.1 969 1077 27.11% 17.10% 55.78%-0.60 -15.8 0-2
2007-05-14 Tre Fiori L 0-137.3 1001 1096 28.69% 17.19% 54.12%-0.52 -6.1 1-1
2007-05-14 @ Libertas W 1-037.3 1096 1001 54.12% 17.19% 28.69%+0.52 +6.1 2-0
2007-05-17 Domagnano W 4-030.6 1093 998 54.10% 17.19% 28.71%+0.52 +21.7 3-1
2007-05-17 @ Murata L 0-430.6 998 1093 28.71% 17.19% 54.10%-0.52 -21.7 2-2
2007-05-21 Libertas W 5-029.7 1115 995 57.18% 17.03% 25.80%+0.66 +24.4 4-1
2007-05-21 @ Murata L 0-529.7 995 1115 25.80% 17.03% 57.18%-0.66 -24.4 1-2
2007-05-25 Murata L 0-432.9 1102 1139 36.02% 17.42% 46.56%-0.21 -26.4 2-1
2007-05-25 @ Tre Fiori W 4-032.9 1139 1102 46.56% 17.42% 36.02%+0.21 +26.4 5-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-09-23 8.65% Juvenes Dogana 726 3 @ Murata 1077 1
2 2007-04-21 13.36% Cailungo 661 3 @ La Fiorita 923 2
3 2007-03-25 13.75% Cosmos 766 3 @ Pennarossa 1022 2
4 2006-09-30 15.02% Folgore Falciano 816 1 @ Murata 1053 0
5 2006-09-16 16.72% @ Virtus 795 3 Pennarossa 1014 2
6 2006-11-11 17.22% @ San Giovanni 569 6 Faetano 782 4
7 2006-11-25 17.44% Virtus 797 3 @ Domagnano 1002 2
8 2007-03-17 18.39% @ Cosmos 721 4 Tre Penne 919 0
9 2007-04-14 19.14% Tre Penne 895 2 @ Tre Fiori 1080 1
10 2006-09-22 19.45% @ La Fiorita 824 2 Tre Fiori 1011 0
11 2007-04-14 21.79% Juvenes Dogana 702 2 @ Folgore Falciano 859 0
12 2006-11-18 22.20% Cosmos 685 4 @ Folgore Falciano 838 1
13 2006-10-14 22.92% @ San Giovanni 564 5 Fiorentino 714 3
14 2006-12-10 23.19% @ San Giovanni 560 2 Cailungo 707 0
15 2006-11-10 23.24% Virtus 803 1 @ Tre Penne 945 0
16 2007-04-01 24.83% @ Tre Penne 878 3 Pennarossa 1010 0
17 2006-11-26 25.49% La Fiorita 867 2 @ Libertas 988 1
18 2006-11-24 25.96% Folgore Falciano 810 3 @ Tre Penne 927 1
19 2007-04-11 27.23% @ Pennarossa 981 1 Tre Fiori 1091 0
20 2007-02-18 28.14% @ Tre Penne 915 2 Murata 1016 1
21 2007-04-06 28.44% @ San Giovanni 551 2 Fiorentino 650 1
22 2007-05-07 * 28.52% @ Libertas 991 2 Murata 1087 1
23 2007-04-02 29.53% @ Fiorentino 635 4 Juvenes Dogana 725 2
24 2007-04-15 30.07% @ La Fiorita 906 3 Pennarossa 992 1
25 2006-10-17 32.87% Domagnano 987 4 @ Murata 1046 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-03-17 44.75 @ Cosmos 4 721 18.39% Tre Penne 0 919 65.28% 16.33%
2 2006-11-18 31.22 @ Tre Fiori 4 1019 38.56% Murata 0 1040 43.99% 17.45%
3 2007-04-01 30.71 @ Tre Penne 3 878 24.83% Pennarossa 0 1010 58.21% 16.96%
4 2006-11-18 27.09 Cosmos 4 685 22.20% @ Folgore Falciano 1 838 61.05% 16.75%
5 2007-05-25 * 26.42 Murata 4 1139 46.56% @ Tre Fiori 0 1102 36.02% 17.42%
6 2007-04-05 26.15 @ Murata 4 1029 47.01% Libertas 0 990 35.58% 17.41%
7 2007-05-21 * 24.35 @ Murata 5 1115 57.18% Libertas 0 995 25.80% 17.03%
8 2006-09-23 23.91 Juvenes Dogana 3 726 8.65% @ Murata 1 1077 77.22% 14.13%
9 2006-09-22 23.17 @ La Fiorita 2 824 19.45% Tre Fiori 0 1011 64.09% 16.46%
10 2007-04-14 22.27 Juvenes Dogana 2 702 21.79% @ Folgore Falciano 0 859 61.50% 16.71%
11 2006-10-14 21.90 @ Faetano 3 771 42.93% Juvenes Dogana 0 762 39.62% 17.46%
12 2006-12-10 21.75 @ San Giovanni 2 560 23.19% Cailungo 0 707 59.98% 16.83%
13 2007-05-17 * 21.73 @ Murata 4 1093 54.10% Domagnano 0 998 28.71% 17.19%
14 2006-10-14 18.84 @ La Fiorita 4 847 58.59% Cosmos 0 717 24.47% 16.93%
15 2006-12-02 18.48 Virtus 4 808 59.15% @ Fiorentino 0 668 23.95% 16.90%
16 2007-05-07 * 18.45 @ Tre Fiori 3 1077 50.33% Domagnano 0 1012 32.34% 17.33%
17 2006-12-01 18.37 Cosmos 6 724 59.89% @ San Giovanni 1 578 23.27% 16.84%
18 2006-11-24 17.95 Folgore Falciano 3 810 25.96% @ Tre Penne 1 927 57.00% 17.04%
19 2006-11-20 17.92 Faetano 2 765 34.06% @ Virtus 0 815 48.56% 17.38%
20 2007-03-16 17.31 Folgore Falciano 3 842 52.69% @ Faetano 0 756 30.06% 17.25%
21 2006-11-11 17.00 @ San Giovanni 6 569 17.22% Faetano 4 782 66.60% 16.17%
22 2007-05-03 * 16.89 Murata 4 1070 61.58% @ La Fiorita 0 911 21.72% 16.70%
23 2007-03-07 16.79 @ La Fiorita 3 862 53.78% Faetano 0 773 29.02% 17.20%
24 2007-04-15 16.70 @ La Fiorita 3 906 30.07% Pennarossa 1 992 52.68% 17.25%
25 2007-04-13 16.47 @ Virtus 4 819 48.05% Cosmos 1 773 34.56% 17.39%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-03-06 65.2 @ Tre Fiori 3 1083 77.73% Juvenes Dogana 3 723 8.28% 13.98%
2 2006-09-24 64.7 @ San Giovanni 3 566 14.36% Folgore Falciano 3 818 69.95% 15.69%
3 2006-12-08 64.4 @ Murata 3 1017 59.13% La Fiorita 3 882 23.97% 16.90%
4 2007-03-06 60.5 @ Tre Penne 2 922 72.27% Fiorentino 2 645 12.45% 15.28%
5 2007-03-03 60.3 @ La Fiorita 2 864 67.78% Fiorentino 2 643 16.20% 16.02%
6 2007-02-16 60.2 @ Pennarossa 2 1014 63.91% Folgore Falciano 2 834 19.60% 16.48%
7 2007-02-17 59.9 @ Fiorentino 2 645 35.93% Cailungo 2 685 46.65% 17.41%
8 2007-04-21 59.1 Cailungo 3 661 13.36% @ La Fiorita 2 923 71.15% 15.49%
9 2007-03-25 59.0 Cosmos 3 766 13.75% @ Pennarossa 2 1022 70.68% 15.57%
10 2006-09-16 58.1 @ Virtus 3 795 16.72% Pennarossa 2 1014 67.19% 16.10%
11 2006-11-11 57.9 @ San Giovanni 6 569 17.22% Faetano 4 782 66.60% 16.17%
12 2006-11-25 57.9 Virtus 3 797 17.44% @ Domagnano 2 1002 66.36% 16.20%
13 2006-10-17 56.6 Domagnano 4 987 32.87% @ Murata 3 1046 49.78% 17.35%
14 2007-03-07 55.7 @ Murata 1 1025 77.12% Cailungo 1 675 8.72% 14.16%
15 2006-09-23 55.4 @ Cosmos 1 714 12.03% Pennarossa 1 1003 72.80% 15.17%
16 2006-11-19 55.4 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 737 12.83% Pennarossa 1 1013 71.80% 15.37%
17 2006-10-14 55.2 @ San Giovanni 5 564 22.92% Fiorentino 3 714 60.27% 16.81%
18 2007-05-03 * 55.2 @ Domagnano 7 1005 45.55% Pennarossa 6 975 37.02% 17.43%
19 2006-12-09 55.1 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 727 19.15% Tre Penne 1 917 64.43% 16.43%
20 2007-03-18 55.1 @ Pennarossa 1 1024 65.86% Virtus 1 824 17.87% 16.26%
21 2006-10-13 55.0 @ Folgore Falciano 1 829 21.89% Domagnano 1 989 61.39% 16.72%
22 2006-09-16 54.8 @ Folgore Falciano 1 818 46.97% Faetano 1 780 35.62% 17.41%
23 2006-10-01 54.8 @ Virtus 1 807 35.85% La Fiorita 1 848 46.74% 17.41%
24 2007-03-04 54.8 @ Cailungo 1 674 28.35% Faetano 1 774 54.48% 17.17%
25 2007-04-10 54.8 @ Domagnano 1 1001 34.11% Murata 1 1055 48.51% 17.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-09-15 22.5 Murata 3 1075 84.41% @ San Giovanni 0 568 4.07% 11.52%
2 2007-03-17 23.0 @ Murata 3 1022 82.82% San Giovanni 0 559 4.96% 12.22%
3 2007-02-24 23.8 @ Tre Penne 5 924 76.80% San Giovanni 0 580 8.96% 14.24%
4 2007-04-22 23.8 @ Murata 7 1063 81.40% Fiorentino 0 632 5.83% 12.78%
5 2007-04-13 24.3 @ Murata 4 1054 74.84% Faetano 0 741 10.43% 14.73%
6 2006-12-08 24.6 Pennarossa 3 1009 77.39% @ Fiorentino 0 650 8.53% 14.08%
7 2006-10-15 24.8 @ Pennarossa 4 1007 73.23% Cailungo 0 717 11.68% 15.09%
8 2006-11-12 24.8 Murata 3 1035 76.78% @ Fiorentino 0 686 8.97% 14.25%
9 2007-02-16 25.1 Tre Fiori 2 1076 83.92% @ San Giovanni 0 582 4.34% 11.75%
10 2007-03-04 25.8 @ Virtus 4 817 69.87% San Giovanni 0 571 14.42% 15.70%
11 2007-02-25 25.9 @ Tre Fiori 2 1077 81.45% Fiorentino 0 645 5.79% 12.76%
12 2006-11-18 26.0 Domagnano 3 995 72.98% @ Cailungo 0 704 11.88% 15.14%
13 2006-11-20 26.3 @ La Fiorita 3 860 72.03% San Giovanni 0 586 12.65% 15.33%
14 2006-11-12 27.6 @ Tre Fiori 2 1015 75.62% Cosmos 0 689 9.83% 14.55%
15 2007-04-10 27.7 @ Libertas 3 964 67.06% Faetano 0 751 16.82% 16.11%
16 2006-09-24 27.8 Tre Penne 3 942 66.83% @ Cailungo 0 727 17.03% 16.14%
17 2007-02-23 27.8 @ Libertas 7 975 73.26% Cailungo 1 685 11.66% 15.08%
18 2007-04-21 27.8 Tre Fiori 6 1069 74.42% @ Cosmos 1 757 10.75% 14.83%
19 2007-02-23 28.0 Murata 4 1006 62.74% @ Virtus 0 833 20.66% 16.60%
20 2007-03-16 28.1 @ Domagnano 5 991 76.80% Fiorentino 1 647 8.95% 14.24%
21 2007-05-03 * 28.3 Murata 4 1070 61.58% @ La Fiorita 0 911 21.72% 16.70%
22 2007-03-31 28.5 Libertas 4 988 81.32% @ San Giovanni 1 554 5.87% 12.81%
23 2006-10-15 28.7 @ Tre Fiori 3 988 63.96% Virtus 0 807 19.56% 16.48%
24 2006-11-25 29.0 Tre Fiori 2 1050 71.23% @ Faetano 0 783 13.30% 15.47%
25 2006-12-02 29.0 Virtus 4 808 59.15% @ Fiorentino 0 668 23.95% 16.90%