2012-13 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Libertas

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Folgore Falciano

10.48 points above expected

39 points · 28.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tre Fiori

11.57 points below expected

17 points · 28.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Libertas	20	13	6	1	45	36	13	+23	36.05	+8.95
2	La Fiorita	20	13	3	4	42	35	21	+14	34.69	+7.31
3	Folgore Falciano	21	10	9	2	39	25	17	+8	28.52	+10.48
4	Murata	20	11	3	6	36	31	19	+12	34.07	+1.93
5	Cosmos	21	9	8	4	35	27	19	+8	33.02	+1.98
6	Tre Penne	21	11	2	8	35	24	18	+6	34.96	+0.04
7	Fiorentino	21	7	8	6	29	36	25	+11	30.00	-1.00
8	San Giovanni	21	6	9	6	27	35	39	-4	29.25	-2.25
9	Domagnano	21	5	8	8	23	24	30	-6	21.14	+1.86
10	Cailungo	20	6	5	9	23	30	37	-7	22.33	+0.67
11	Faetano	20	5	6	9	21	20	26	-6	24.54	-3.54
12	Pennarossa	21	5	5	11	20	23	38	-15	22.40	-2.40
13	Juvenes Dogana	20	5	3	12	18	24	36	-12	23.23	-5.23
14	Tre Fiori	21	5	2	14	17	22	34	-12	28.57	-11.57
15	Virtus	20	3	3	14	12	15	35	-20	20.26	-8.26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Folgore Falciano	39	28.52	+10.48
2	Libertas	45	36.05	+8.95
3	La Fiorita	42	34.69	+7.31
4	Cosmos	35	33.02	+1.98
5	Murata	36	34.07	+1.93

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Tre Fiori	17	28.57	-11.57
2	Virtus	12	20.26	-8.26
3	Juvenes Dogana	18	23.23	-5.23
4	Faetano	21	24.54	-3.54
5	Pennarossa	20	22.40	-2.40

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Murata	5	Oct 21 – Nov 25	1 in 59
2	Virtus	2	Mar 2 – Mar 16	1 in 34
3	Folgore Falciano	3	Mar 17 – Apr 7	1 in 30
4	Libertas	6	Feb 16 – Apr 13	1 in 29
5	Tre Fiori	3	Oct 19 – Nov 4	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Virtus	8	Oct 26 – Dec 22	1 in 678
2	Juvenes Dogana	7	Feb 6 – Apr 7	1 in 268
3	Tre Fiori	5	Mar 13 – Apr 14	1 in 99
4	Tre Penne	3	Nov 17 – Dec 1	1 in 31
5	Murata	2	Dec 1 – Dec 16	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Folgore Falciano	10	Oct 28 – Feb 17	1 in 97
2	San Giovanni	8	Nov 10 – Feb 17	1 in 52
3	Libertas	16	Oct 27 – Apr 13	1 in 45
4	Murata	9	Sep 15 – Nov 25	1 in 27
5	Domagnano	4	Nov 3 – Nov 24	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Virtus	11	Oct 26 – Feb 16	1 in 27
2	Cosmos	5	Nov 3 – Dec 15	1 in 26
3	Tre Fiori	6	Dec 1 – Feb 16	1 in 19
4	Cailungo	8	Sep 23 – Nov 24	1 in 18
5	San Giovanni	6	Feb 17 – Apr 7	1 in 16

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Libertas	1076	45	+41	15	10.3	+4.7
La Fiorita	996	42	+26	12	8.3	+3.7
Folgore Falciano	915	39	+56	11	6.5	+4.5
Murata	931	36	-53	6	9.0	-3.0
Cosmos	944	35	+10	10	8.9	+1.1
Tre Penne	925	35	-18	9	9.0	-0.0
Fiorentino	953	29	+27	7	8.0	-1.0
San Giovanni	815	27	-74	4	6.5	-2.5
Cailungo	849	23	+58	9	5.4	+3.6
Domagnano	828	23	+38	7	5.3	+1.7
Faetano	825	21	-67	1	6.5	-5.5
Pennarossa	807	20	+71	8	4.6	+3.4
Juvenes Dogana	783	18	-8	3	4.5	-1.5
Tre Fiori	744	17	-110	0	6.2	-6.2
Virtus	725	12	+31	7	4.0	+3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CAI	COS	DOM	FAE	FIO	FF	JD	LF	LIB	MUR	PEN	SG	TF	TP	VIR
Cailungo	—	0-1-0 0.93	1-0-0 1.15	1-0-1 2.44	0-0-1 1.09	0-1-0 0.94	1-1-0 2.54	0-0-2 1.75	0-0-2 1.84	1-1-0 1.81	0-0-1 1.59	0-1-0 1.03	1-0-0 0.96	0-0-1 0.81	1-0-1 3.15
Cosmos	0-1-0 1.82	—	2-0-0 3.69	0-1-0 1.76	1-1-0 3.06	1-0-1 3.29	0-0-1 1.93	1-0-0 1.00	0-1-0 1.13	0-1-0 1.03	1-1-0 3.69	0-2-0 3.07	2-0-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.79	1-0-0 1.95
Domagnano	0-0-1 1.60	0-0-2 1.82	—	0-1-0 1.10	0-2-0 2.03	0-2-0 2.03	1-0-0 1.24	0-0-1 0.60	0-1-0 0.79	0-0-1 0.69	1-1-0 2.47	1-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 2.40	0-1-1 1.73	1-0-0 1.08
Faetano	1-0-1 3.04	0-1-0 0.99	0-1-0 1.64	—	0-1-0 1.28	0-0-1 1.07	0-0-2 3.18	0-1-1 2.02	0-0-2 1.86	0-0-2 2.08	1-0-0 1.78	0-1-0 1.04	1-0-0 1.13	1-0-0 0.78	1-1-0 3.04
Fiorentino	1-0-0 1.65	0-1-1 2.43	0-2-0 3.46	0-1-0 1.47	—	0-2-0 3.15	1-0-0 1.39	0-0-1 0.90	0-0-1 1.07	0-0-1 1.00	2-0-0 3.35	1-1-0 2.78	1-0-1 3.41	0-1-1 2.46	1-0-0 1.84
Folgore Falciano	0-1-0 1.80	1-0-1 2.20	0-2-0 3.46	1-0-0 1.68	0-2-0 2.33	—	1-0-0 1.48	0-1-0 0.88	0-1-0 0.78	1-0-0 0.92	1-1-0 3.04	1-1-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 1.97	1-0-0 2.09
Juvenes Dogana	0-1-1 2.94	1-0-0 0.82	0-0-1 1.51	2-0-0 2.32	0-0-1 1.35	0-0-1 1.26	—	0-0-2 1.70	0-0-2 1.34	0-0-2 2.15	1-0-0 1.51	0-0-1 1.01	0-1-0 0.95	1-0-0 1.02	0-1-1 3.02
La Fiorita	2-0-0 3.75	0-0-1 1.75	1-0-0 2.17	1-1-0 3.47	1-0-0 1.85	0-1-0 1.87	2-0-0 3.82	—	1-0-1 2.27	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-0 2.01	0-0-1 1.83	0-1-0 1.61	1-0-0 1.48	2-0-0 3.66
Libertas	2-0-0 3.66	0-1-0 1.61	0-1-0 1.97	2-0-0 3.64	1-0-0 1.67	0-1-0 1.97	2-0-0 4.20	1-0-1 3.22	—	1-1-0 2.91	0-1-0 2.27	0-1-0 1.89	1-0-0 1.61	1-0-0 1.63	2-0-0 4.22
Murata	0-1-1 3.69	0-1-0 1.71	1-0-0 2.07	2-0-0 3.41	1-0-0 1.74	0-0-1 1.83	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-1 2.30	0-1-1 2.57	—	1-0-0 1.78	0-0-1 1.69	1-0-0 1.90	1-0-0 1.61	1-0-1 3.91
Pennarossa	1-0-0 1.15	0-1-1 1.82	0-1-1 3.02	0-0-1 0.96	0-0-2 2.14	0-1-1 2.47	0-0-1 1.24	0-0-1 0.75	0-1-0 0.52	0-0-1 0.96	—	0-1-1 2.28	2-0-0 2.21	1-0-1 1.59	1-0-0 1.24
San Giovanni	0-1-0 1.72	0-2-0 2.42	1-0-1 3.53	0-1-0 1.71	0-1-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.58	1-0-0 1.74	1-0-0 0.92	0-1-0 0.86	1-0-0 1.05	1-1-0 3.22	—	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-0 1.98
Tre Fiori	0-0-1 1.79	0-0-2 2.49	1-0-1 3.09	0-0-1 1.61	1-0-1 2.08	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-0 1.80	0-1-0 1.13	0-0-1 1.14	0-0-1 0.85	0-0-2 3.29	1-0-1 2.59	—	0-0-2 2.40	1-0-0 1.86
Tre Penne	1-0-0 1.95	2-0-0 2.70	1-1-0 3.77	0-0-1 1.98	1-1-0 3.03	0-0-2 3.52	0-0-1 1.73	0-0-1 1.27	0-0-1 1.11	0-0-1 1.14	1-0-1 3.92	2-0-0 3.43	2-0-0 3.09	—	1-0-0 1.99
Virtus	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-1 0.80	0-0-1 1.66	0-1-1 2.45	0-0-1 0.91	0-0-1 0.67	1-1-0 2.47	0-0-2 1.86	0-0-2 1.33	1-0-1 1.61	0-0-1 1.51	0-1-0 0.78	0-0-1 0.89	0-0-1 0.76	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.46	+10.6
Allowed	0.73	-9.6
Differential	0.91	+7.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.74%	10.71%	5.52%	2.27%	0.65%	0.32%	29.22%
1	10.71%	9.09%	8.77%	2.92%	1.62%	0.32%	33.44%
2	5.52%	8.77%	3.90%	1.62%	0.97%	—	20.78%
3	2.27%	2.92%	1.62%	3.25%	0.32%	0.65%	11.04%
4	0.65%	1.62%	0.97%	0.32%	—	0.32%	3.90%
5+	0.32%	0.32%	—	0.65%	0.32%	—	1.62%
Total	29.22%	33.44%	20.78%	11.04%	3.90%	1.62%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.32	+0.00
SD	1.22	1.22	1.58
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	10.00%	—	5.00%	—	—	25.00%
1	5.00%	—	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	30.00%
2	10.00%	—	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	25.00%
3	5.00%	5.00%	—	5.00%	—	—	15.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	5.00%	—	5.00%
Total	30.00%	15.00%	20.00%	20.00%	10.00%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.85	-0.35
SD	1.32	1.69	1.95
CV	0.88	0.92	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.52%	9.52%	4.76%	—	—	—	23.81%
1	19.05%	19.05%	4.76%	—	—	—	42.86%
2	9.52%	9.52%	—	—	—	—	19.05%
3	—	—	—	9.52%	—	—	9.52%
4	—	4.76%	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.10%	42.86%	9.52%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.29	0.90	+0.38
SD	1.10	0.94	1.16
CV	0.86	1.04	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.05%	14.29%	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	42.86%
1	—	4.76%	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	14.29%
2	4.76%	9.52%	9.52%	4.76%	—	—	28.57%
3	4.76%	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	28.57%	19.05%	19.05%	4.76%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.43	-0.29
SD	1.15	1.25	1.49
CV	1.01	0.87	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.00%	—	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	30.00%
1	10.00%	15.00%	25.00%	—	—	—	50.00%
2	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	5.00%	—	15.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.00%	—	—	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	25.00%	35.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.30	-0.30
SD	0.97	1.13	1.45
CV	0.97	0.87	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.52%	—	—	—	—	9.52%
1	4.76%	28.57%	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	52.38%
2	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	—	—	9.52%
3	—	9.52%	—	4.76%	—	—	14.29%
4	9.52%	4.76%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.05%	52.38%	19.05%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.71	1.19	+0.52
SD	1.27	0.87	1.69
CV	0.74	0.73	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.05%	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	—	28.57%
1	23.81%	9.52%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
2	4.76%	14.29%	9.52%	—	—	—	28.57%
3	—	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	—	9.52%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	47.62%	33.33%	9.52%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	0.81	+0.38
SD	0.98	0.98	1.07
CV	0.82	1.21	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	30.00%
1	15.00%	—	15.00%	10.00%	—	—	40.00%
2	—	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	15.00%
3	—	—	—	—	5.00%	5.00%	10.00%
4	—	—	5.00%	—	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	15.00%	30.00%	20.00%	5.00%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.20	1.80	-0.60
SD	1.15	1.44	1.31
CV	0.96	0.80	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	15.00%
1	10.00%	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	10.00%	20.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	35.00%
3	5.00%	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
4	—	—	5.00%	—	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	35.00%	35.00%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.05	+0.70
SD	1.12	0.83	1.26
CV	0.64	0.79	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
1	20.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	30.00%
2	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	15.00%
3	10.00%	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	30.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.00%	—	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	50.00%	40.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.80	0.65	+1.15
SD	1.51	0.81	1.39
CV	0.84	1.25	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.00%	25.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	35.00%
1	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	15.00%
2	—	30.00%	—	—	—	—	30.00%
3	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.00%	—	—	5.00%	—	—	10.00%
Total	20.00%	70.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	0.95	+0.60
SD	1.57	0.69	1.64
CV	1.01	0.72	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.52%	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	4.76%	33.33%
1	4.76%	9.52%	4.76%	—	9.52%	—	28.57%
2	9.52%	9.52%	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%	4.76%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.81%	33.33%	14.29%	4.76%	14.29%	9.52%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.10	1.81	-0.71
SD	0.94	1.69	1.74
CV	0.86	0.93	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	—	14.29%	—	4.76%	—	23.81%
1	4.76%	19.05%	9.52%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	—	9.52%
3	—	4.76%	4.76%	14.29%	—	—	23.81%
4	—	—	—	4.76%	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	4.76%	—	—	4.76%
Total	9.52%	28.57%	33.33%	23.81%	4.76%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.86	-0.19
SD	1.46	1.06	1.44
CV	0.88	0.57	—
Max	5	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	19.05%	14.29%	9.52%	—	—	47.62%
1	4.76%	—	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	23.81%
2	—	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	14.29%
3	4.76%	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%
4	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	—	9.52%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	38.10%	19.05%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.62	-0.57
SD	1.32	0.97	1.72
CV	1.26	0.60	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	—	23.81%
1	23.81%	4.76%	9.52%	9.52%	—	—	47.62%
2	19.05%	4.76%	—	—	—	—	23.81%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.76%	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	47.62%	28.57%	14.29%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	0.86	+0.29
SD	0.96	1.01	1.52
CV	0.84	1.18	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.00%	20.00%	10.00%	—	5.00%	—	50.00%
1	10.00%	—	15.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	35.00%
2	—	5.00%	—	—	5.00%	—	10.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%	5.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	5.00%	15.00%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.75	-1.00
SD	1.02	1.55	1.30
CV	1.36	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Libertas	1077	45	36.05	+8.95	95.0%	20	26	32	36	40	45	50
Tre Penne	1018	35	34.96	+0.04	50.0%	21	24	30	35	39	45	51
La Fiorita	997	42	34.69	+7.31	91.0%	20	25	31	34	39	44	51
Fiorentino	953	29	30.00	-1.00	48.0%	15	20	25	30	35	40	43
Cosmos	920	35	33.02	+1.98	70.0%	20	22	28	33	36	42	47
Murata	899	36	34.07	+1.93	68.0%	21	25	31	34	38	43	47
Folgore Falciano	876	39	28.52	+10.48	95.0%	11	18	24	28	33	39	47
Cailungo	849	23	22.33	+0.67	68.0%	11	14	19	22	26	32	35
Domagnano	828	23	21.14	+1.86	67.0%	9	12	17	21	24	30	36
Faetano	825	21	24.54	-3.54	29.0%	14	16	21	24	27	34	40
San Giovanni	815	27	29.25	-2.25	33.0%	11	19	26	30	32	38	47
Pennarossa	807	20	22.40	-2.40	33.0%	6	12	19	23	26	31	35
Juvenes Dogana	783	18	23.23	-5.23	23.0%	8	14	19	23	28	32	35
Tre Fiori	744	17	28.57	-11.57	1.0%	16	19	25	29	33	37	42
Virtus	725	12	20.26	-8.26	4.0%	9	13	16	19	24	31	36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.49%

Strong Edge

40.26%25.97%33.77%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 22.59 Elo pts.

245 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.12 goals

Neutral

-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.9

Wide Open

145610

Champion Preseason Odds

40%

Libertas, 1st of 15

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.14/gm

Comfortable

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.63 * Some Luck: 4.63 to 6.95 * Lucky: 6.95 to 9.26 * Wild Swing: 9.26 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.12 * Close: 2.12 to 3.17 * Off: 3.17 to 4.23 * Way Off: 4.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.82 points

Some Luck

05.7914

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Pinpoint

02.656

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.67%

95.00%

Libertas

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.33%

1.00%

Tre Fiori

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 15

Minimal Outliers

01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Balanced

00.20.260.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 98.19

1.67

Coin-Flip Parity

11.71.92.23

Interquartile Edge

67%

Even

50%74%84.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Even

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

69%

Very Frequent

0%66%100%

Blowouts

Expected

10%

Rare

0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.31

Very Even

00.370.430.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.13

Weak Carryover

00.360.520.691

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Shaky

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.77

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.92

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.057

Well Within Noise

00.1340.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

La Fiorita 5

Cosmos 4

Murata 2

Tre Penne 1

Second Round

La Fiorita 4

Murata 2

Tre Penne 4

Cosmos 3

Third Round

Libertas 2

Folgore Falciano 0

Tre Penne 2

Murata 0

Quarterfinals

Libertas 1

La Fiorita 0

Tre Penne 2

Folgore Falciano 0

Semifinals

Tre Penne 1

La Fiorita 0

Sim: 2.0%

Finals

Tre Penne 5

Libertas 3

Sim: 3.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Libertas	40.00%	29.00%	16.00%	7.00%	8.00%	—	—	—
La Fiorita	36.00%	26.00%	24.00%	7.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	—
Folgore Falciano	10.00%	9.00%	11.00%	15.00%	19.00%	22.00%	8.00%	6.00%
Murata	22.00%	35.00%	26.00%	11.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Cosmos	18.00%	25.00%	25.00%	14.00%	5.00%	10.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Tre Penne	40.00%	24.00%	12.00%	9.00%	7.00%	5.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Fiorentino	12.00%	16.00%	23.00%	10.00%	11.00%	10.00%	10.00%	8.00%
San Giovanni	13.00%	11.00%	13.00%	19.00%	18.00%	10.00%	12.00%	4.00%
Domagnano	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	30.00%	40.00%
Cailungo	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	18.00%	25.00%	28.00%	20.00%	—
Faetano	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	23.00%	30.00%	22.00%	11.00%	—
Pennarossa	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	7.00%	9.00%	21.00%	24.00%	34.00%
Juvenes Dogana	—	1.00%	11.00%	22.00%	19.00%	26.00%	21.00%	—
Tre Fiori	6.00%	12.00%	13.00%	20.00%	20.00%	11.00%	12.00%	6.00%
Virtus	—	3.00%	8.00%	12.00%	10.00%	20.00%	47.00%	—

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level
Cailungo	91.00%
Cosmos	—
Domagnano	98.00%
Faetano	86.00%
Fiorentino	49.00%
Folgore Falciano	—
Juvenes Dogana	88.00%
La Fiorita	—
Libertas	—
Murata	—
Pennarossa	95.00%
San Giovanni	63.00%
Tre Fiori	69.00%
Tre Penne	—
Virtus	89.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo		0.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%							0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Cosmos	100.0%2.00%			60.0%5.00%			0.0%1.00%	47.1%17.00%	14.3%7.00%	25.0%8.00%					100.0%1.00%
Domagnano	0.0%1.00%								0.0%1.00%
Faetano		40.0%5.00%			0.0%2.00%	50.0%4.00%						50.0%4.00%	0.0%2.00%	66.7%3.00%
Fiorentino	100.0%1.00%			100.0%2.00%			0.0%1.00%	40.0%5.00%	28.6%7.00%	36.8%19.00%
Folgore Falciano	100.0%2.00%			50.0%4.00%			100.0%1.00%	42.9%7.00%	63.6%11.00%	14.3%7.00%
Juvenes Dogana		100.0%1.00%			100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%						0.0%2.00%		100.0%1.00%
La Fiorita		52.9%17.00%			60.0%5.00%	57.1%7.00%					100.0%2.00%	40.0%10.00%	83.3%6.00%	57.1%7.00%
Libertas		85.7%7.00%	100.0%1.00%		71.4%7.00%	36.4%11.00%					100.0%4.00%	42.9%7.00%	100.0%2.00%	75.0%8.00%
Murata		75.0%8.00%			63.2%19.00%	85.7%7.00%					0.0%1.00%	57.1%7.00%	100.0%4.00%	50.0%16.00%
Pennarossa								0.0%2.00%	0.0%4.00%	100.0%1.00%
San Giovanni				50.0%4.00%			100.0%2.00%	60.0%10.00%	57.1%7.00%	42.9%7.00%					100.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori	100.0%1.00%			100.0%2.00%				16.7%6.00%	0.0%2.00%	0.0%4.00%					0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne	0.0%1.00%			33.3%3.00%			0.0%1.00%	42.9%7.00%	25.0%8.00%	50.0%16.00%
Virtus		0.0%1.00%										0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo							100.0%1.00%				100.0%1.00%
Cosmos			0.0%1.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%		44.4%9.00%	27.3%11.00%	77.8%9.00%			0.0%1.00%	40.0%5.00%
Faetano		100.0%1.00%					50.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%			0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%
Fiorentino		0.0%2.00%			100.0%3.00%		25.0%4.00%	28.6%7.00%	0.0%2.00%		100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano		100.0%2.00%		0.0%3.00%			0.0%4.00%	25.0%4.00%	0.0%3.00%		66.7%3.00%	0.0%1.00%	20.0%5.00%
Juvenes Dogana							66.7%3.00%		0.0%1.00%		100.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita	0.0%1.00%	55.6%9.00%	50.0%2.00%	75.0%4.00%	100.0%4.00%	33.3%3.00%		47.4%19.00%	66.7%12.00%		33.3%3.00%		80.0%10.00%
Libertas		72.7%11.00%	100.0%1.00%	71.4%7.00%	75.0%4.00%		52.6%19.00%		66.7%9.00%		87.5%8.00%	100.0%5.00%	50.0%10.00%	100.0%1.00%
Murata		22.2%9.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	33.3%12.00%	33.3%9.00%			100.0%1.00%	66.7%3.00%	46.7%15.00%
Pennarossa													100.0%1.00%
San Giovanni	0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%	0.0%1.00%	66.7%3.00%	12.5%8.00%	0.0%1.00%				28.6%7.00%
Tre Fiori		100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%			0.0%5.00%	33.3%3.00%				0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne		60.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	80.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%	20.0%10.00%	50.0%10.00%	53.3%15.00%	0.0%1.00%	71.4%7.00%	100.0%1.00%
Virtus								0.0%1.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne
Cailungo									100.0%1.00%				0.0%1.00%
Cosmos							40.0%5.00%	50.0%8.00%	66.7%3.00%			100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Faetano								100.0%1.00%					50.0%2.00%
Fiorentino							100.0%1.00%	50.0%4.00%	100.0%2.00%				0.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano							50.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%			100.0%2.00%		0.0%1.00%
Juvenes Dogana							0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%					0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita		60.0%5.00%		0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		33.3%12.00%	75.0%4.00%	100.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%	50.0%2.00%	70.0%10.00%
Libertas		50.0%8.00%	0.0%1.00%	50.0%4.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	66.7%12.00%		75.0%12.00%		100.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	66.7%9.00%
Murata	0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%		0.0%2.00%			25.0%4.00%	25.0%12.00%					25.0%4.00%
Pennarossa							0.0%1.00%
San Giovanni					0.0%2.00%		100.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%
Tre Fiori		0.0%1.00%					50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%
Tre Penne	100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	30.0%10.00%	33.3%9.00%	75.0%4.00%
Virtus

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Finals
Libertas	100%	100%	42.17%
La Fiorita	81.24%	34.95%	18.26%
Folgore Falciano	85.40%	41.85%	12.32%
Murata	63.00%	22.64%	9.54%
Tre Penne	72.08%	24.77%	8.90%
Cosmos	53.84%	20.73%	8.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cosmos	Folgore Falciano	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Tre Penne
Cosmos			39.9%135.08%
Folgore Falciano				31.6%270.16%
La Fiorita	60.1%135.08%
Libertas		68.4%270.16%
Murata						46.6%135.08%
Tre Penne					53.4%135.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cosmos	Folgore Falciano	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Tre Penne
Cosmos		53.5%18.38%		30.7%35.46%
Folgore Falciano	46.5%18.38%		43.6%27.56%		53.6%18.36%	54.2%21.10%
La Fiorita		56.4%27.56%		36.2%53.68%
Libertas	69.3%35.46%		63.8%53.68%		68.4%44.64%	70.3%50.98%
Murata		46.4%18.36%		31.6%44.64%
Tre Penne		45.8%21.10%		29.7%50.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cosmos	Folgore Falciano	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Tre Penne
Cosmos		54.5%3.30%		33.8%9.79%	45.0%3.66%	51.5%3.98%
Folgore Falciano	45.5%3.30%		34.1%5.54%	30.3%17.14%	46.1%3.63%	58.5%3.51%
La Fiorita		65.9%5.54%		40.0%16.82%	61.9%6.28%	63.4%6.31%
Libertas	66.2%9.79%	69.7%17.14%	60.0%16.82%		65.0%9.06%	70.8%10.97%
Murata	55.0%3.66%	53.9%3.63%	38.1%6.28%	35.0%9.06%
Tre Penne	48.5%3.98%	41.5%3.51%	36.6%6.31%	29.2%10.97%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2012-09-14	Cosmos	D 3-3	62.2	864	886	37.46%	25.87%	36.67%	+0.00	-0.0	1
2012-09-14	@ San Giovanni	D 3-3	62.2	886	864	36.67%	25.87%	37.46%	+0.00	+0.0	1
2012-09-15	Cailungo	L 0-2	39.0	875	839	45.50%	25.66%	28.84%	+0.24	-32.2	0
2012-09-15	@ Faetano	W 2-0	39.0	839	875	28.84%	25.66%	45.50%	-0.24	+32.2	3
2012-09-15	Folgore Falciano	D 2-2	58.6	876	825	47.37%	25.55%	27.08%	+0.30	-1.2	1
2012-09-15	@ Pennarossa	D 2-2	58.6	825	876	27.08%	25.55%	47.37%	-0.30	+1.2	1
2012-09-15	Libertas	D 1-1	53.3	882	896	38.61%	25.87%	35.52%	+0.03	-0.2	1
2012-09-15	@ Murata	D 1-1	53.3	896	882	35.52%	25.87%	38.61%	-0.03	+0.2	1
2012-09-16	Domagnano	D 3-3	62.3	863	815	47.03%	25.57%	27.40%	+0.29	-1.0	1
2012-09-16	@ Fiorentino	D 3-3	62.3	815	863	27.40%	25.57%	47.03%	-0.29	+1.0	1
2012-09-16	La Fiorita	L 0-2	36.3	877	907	36.32%	25.87%	37.81%	-0.03	-27.0	0
2012-09-16	@ Virtus	W 2-0	36.3	907	877	37.81%	25.87%	36.32%	+0.03	+27.0	3
2012-09-16	Tre Fiori	W 2-0	35.7	917	924	39.74%	25.85%	34.41%	+0.07	+25.9	3
2012-09-16	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	35.7	924	917	34.41%	25.85%	39.74%	-0.07	-25.9	0
2012-09-21	Tre Penne	D 0-0	49.1	816	943	24.11%	25.29%	50.60%	-0.43	+2.4	2
2012-09-21	@ Domagnano	D 0-0	49.1	943	816	50.60%	25.29%	24.11%	+0.43	-2.4	4
2012-09-22	Cosmos	L 1-2	47.7	898	886	42.23%	25.80%	31.97%	+0.14	-15.1	0
2012-09-22	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-1	47.7	886	898	31.97%	25.80%	42.23%	-0.14	+15.2	4
2012-09-22	Faetano	D 1-1	53.6	934	843	52.32%	25.12%	22.57%	+0.47	-2.4	4
2012-09-22	@ La Fiorita	D 1-1	53.6	843	934	22.57%	25.12%	52.32%	-0.47	+2.4	1
2012-09-22	Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.3	826	862	35.48%	25.86%	38.66%	-0.06	+0.2	2
2012-09-22	@ Folgore Falciano	D 1-1	53.3	862	826	38.66%	25.86%	35.48%	+0.06	-0.2	2
2012-09-23	Cailungo	W 6-1	35.8	896	871	44.06%	25.73%	30.21%	+0.20	+45.5	4
2012-09-23	@ Libertas	L 1-6	35.8	871	896	30.21%	25.73%	44.06%	-0.20	-45.5	3
2012-09-23	Murata	L 1-3	42.4	872	882	39.22%	25.86%	34.93%	+0.05	-24.8	0
2012-09-23	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-1	42.4	882	872	34.93%	25.86%	39.22%	-0.05	+24.8	4
2012-09-23	San Giovanni	L 3-5	48.7	875	864	42.13%	25.80%	32.07%	+0.14	-22.1	1
2012-09-23	@ Pennarossa	W 5-3	48.7	864	875	32.07%	25.80%	42.13%	-0.14	+22.1	4
2012-09-28	Juvenes Dogana	D 2-2	58.5	826	847	37.59%	25.87%	36.54%	+0.00	-0.1	4
2012-09-28	@ Cailungo	D 2-2	58.5	847	826	36.54%	25.87%	37.59%	+0.00	+0.1	1
2012-09-28	Tre Penne	L 1-2	45.6	901	941	34.96%	25.86%	39.18%	-0.07	-13.1	4
2012-09-28	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	45.6	941	901	39.18%	25.86%	34.96%	+0.07	+13.1	7
2012-09-29	Domagnano	W 3-1	38.1	886	819	49.40%	25.40%	25.21%	+0.37	+17.6	7
2012-09-29	@ San Giovanni	L 1-3	38.1	819	886	25.21%	25.40%	49.40%	-0.37	-17.6	2
2012-09-29	Pennarossa	W 2-0	35.1	862	852	41.95%	25.80%	32.25%	+0.13	+24.7	5
2012-09-29	@ Fiorentino	L 0-2	35.1	852	862	32.25%	25.80%	41.95%	-0.13	-24.7	1
2012-09-29	Virtus	W 2-1	42.9	906	850	48.05%	25.50%	26.45%	+0.32	+10.6	7
2012-09-29	@ Murata	L 1-2	42.9	850	906	26.45%	25.50%	48.05%	-0.32	-10.6	0
2012-09-30	Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	49.4	883	826	48.04%	25.50%	26.45%	+0.32	-16.9	0
2012-09-30	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-1	49.4	826	883	26.45%	25.50%	48.04%	-0.32	+16.8	5
2012-09-30	Libertas	L 0-3	31.3	845	942	27.59%	25.58%	46.83%	-0.30	-31.7	1
2012-09-30	@ Faetano	W 3-0	31.3	942	845	46.83%	25.58%	27.59%	+0.30	+31.7	7
2012-10-06	Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.4	903	887	42.87%	25.77%	31.35%	+0.16	-0.9	8
2012-10-06	@ San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.4	887	903	31.35%	25.77%	42.87%	-0.16	+0.9	6
2012-10-06	La Fiorita	L 0-1	43.8	973	932	46.18%	25.62%	28.20%	+0.26	-17.3	7
2012-10-06	@ Libertas	W 1-0	43.8	932	973	28.20%	25.62%	46.18%	-0.26	+17.3	7
2012-10-06	Tre Fiori	W 1-0	41.6	828	866	35.23%	25.86%	38.91%	-0.06	+15.1	4
2012-10-06	@ Pennarossa	L 0-1	41.6	866	828	38.91%	25.86%	35.23%	+0.06	-15.1	0
2012-10-06	Tre Penne	W 1-0	44.4	843	954	25.92%	25.46%	48.62%	-0.36	+18.1	8
2012-10-06	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	44.4	954	843	48.62%	25.46%	25.92%	+0.36	-18.1	7
2012-10-07	Cailungo	D 0-0	49.1	917	825	52.29%	25.12%	22.59%	+0.47	-2.7	8
2012-10-07	@ Murata	D 0-0	49.1	825	917	22.59%	25.12%	52.29%	-0.47	+2.7	5
2012-10-07	Cosmos	L 0-2	34.0	801	888	28.76%	25.66%	45.59%	-0.26	-22.6	2
2012-10-07	@ Domagnano	W 2-0	34.0	888	801	45.59%	25.66%	28.76%	+0.26	+22.6	7
2012-10-07	Juvenes Dogana	D 0-0	48.9	840	847	39.59%	25.85%	34.56%	+0.06	-0.4	1
2012-10-07	@ Virtus	D 0-0	48.9	847	840	34.56%	25.85%	39.59%	-0.06	+0.4	2
2012-10-19	Fiorentino	W 1-0	41.6	851	888	35.35%	25.86%	38.79%	-0.06	+15.0	3
2012-10-19	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-1	41.6	888	851	38.79%	25.86%	35.35%	+0.06	-15.0	6
2012-10-20	La Fiorita	L 0-2	33.4	847	949	26.94%	25.54%	47.52%	-0.32	-21.4	2
2012-10-20	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 2-0	33.4	949	847	47.52%	25.54%	26.94%	+0.32	+21.4	10
2012-10-20	San Giovanni	W 2-0	34.1	936	902	45.16%	25.68%	29.16%	+0.23	+22.8	10
2012-10-20	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	34.1	902	936	29.16%	25.68%	45.16%	-0.23	-22.8	8
2012-10-20	Virtus	L 0-1	41.7	828	839	39.05%	25.86%	35.09%	+0.05	-15.1	5
2012-10-20	@ Cailungo	W 1-0	41.7	839	828	35.09%	25.86%	39.05%	-0.05	+15.1	4
2012-10-21	Folgore Falciano	W 1-0	38.1	911	861	47.17%	25.56%	27.27%	+0.29	+11.5	10
2012-10-21	@ Cosmos	L 0-1	38.1	861	911	27.27%	25.56%	47.17%	-0.29	-11.5	8
2012-10-21	Murata	L 1-2	43.1	813	914	27.08%	25.55%	47.37%	-0.32	-10.8	1
2012-10-21	@ Faetano	W 2-1	43.1	914	813	47.37%	25.55%	27.08%	+0.32	+10.8	11
2012-10-21	Pennarossa	D 0-0	48.9	778	843	31.63%	25.78%	42.58%	-0.17	+0.9	3
2012-10-21	@ Domagnano	D 0-0	48.9	843	778	42.58%	25.78%	31.63%	+0.17	-1.0	5
2012-10-26	Virtus	W 1-0	42.2	803	854	33.33%	25.83%	40.84%	-0.12	+15.6	4
2012-10-26	@ Faetano	L 0-1	42.2	854	803	40.84%	25.83%	33.33%	+0.12	-15.6	4
2012-10-27	Cosmos	L 0-1	38.8	842	922	29.60%	25.70%	44.70%	-0.23	-12.2	5
2012-10-27	@ Pennarossa	W 1-0	38.8	922	842	44.70%	25.70%	29.60%	+0.23	+12.2	13
2012-10-27	Domagnano	W 4-1	34.5	866	779	51.69%	25.18%	23.13%	+0.44	+23.2	6
2012-10-27	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-4	34.5	779	866	23.13%	25.18%	51.69%	-0.44	-23.2	3
2012-10-27	Juvenes Dogana	W 3-0	28.4	956	826	56.53%	24.55%	18.92%	+0.62	+23.1	10
2012-10-27	@ Libertas	L 0-3	28.4	826	956	18.92%	24.55%	56.53%	-0.62	-23.1	2
2012-10-28	Cailungo	W 3-0	27.6	971	813	59.28%	24.07%	16.65%	+0.74	+20.6	13
2012-10-28	@ La Fiorita	L 0-3	27.6	813	971	16.65%	24.07%	59.28%	-0.74	-20.6	5
2012-10-28	Folgore Falciano	D 3-3	62.3	880	850	44.64%	25.70%	29.65%	+0.21	-0.7	9
2012-10-28	@ San Giovanni	D 3-3	62.3	850	880	29.65%	25.70%	44.64%	-0.21	+0.7	9
2012-10-28	Tre Penne	D 1-1	53.4	873	959	28.85%	25.66%	45.49%	-0.26	+1.3	7
2012-10-28	@ Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.4	959	873	45.49%	25.66%	28.85%	+0.26	-1.3	11
2012-11-02	La Fiorita	W 2-1	47.9	925	991	31.37%	25.78%	42.86%	-0.18	+15.3	14
2012-11-02	@ Murata	L 1-2	47.9	991	925	42.86%	25.78%	31.37%	+0.18	-15.3	13
2012-11-03	Domagnano	D 0-0	49.2	851	756	52.62%	25.08%	22.30%	+0.48	-2.8	10
2012-11-03	@ Folgore Falciano	D 0-0	49.2	756	851	22.30%	25.08%	52.62%	-0.48	+2.8	4
2012-11-03	Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.5	934	874	48.57%	25.46%	25.97%	+0.34	-1.8	14
2012-11-03	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	53.5	874	934	25.97%	25.46%	48.57%	-0.34	+1.8	8
2012-11-03	Pennarossa	W 4-1	33.1	958	830	56.28%	24.59%	19.12%	+0.61	+19.7	14
2012-11-03	@ Tre Penne	L 1-4	33.1	830	958	19.12%	24.59%	56.28%	-0.61	-19.7	5
2012-11-04	Faetano	W 2-1	45.8	803	818	38.42%	25.87%	35.71%	+0.03	+13.3	5
2012-11-04	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 1-2	45.8	818	803	35.71%	25.87%	38.42%	-0.03	-13.3	4
2012-11-04	Libertas	L 0-1	36.6	839	979	22.69%	25.13%	52.18%	-0.48	-9.9	4
2012-11-04	@ Virtus	W 1-0	36.6	979	839	52.18%	25.13%	22.69%	+0.48	+9.9	13
2012-11-04	Tre Fiori	L 1-2	46.8	879	889	39.21%	25.86%	34.93%	+0.05	-14.3	9
2012-11-04	@ San Giovanni	W 2-1	46.8	889	879	34.93%	25.86%	39.21%	-0.05	+14.3	9
2012-11-09	Folgore Falciano	D 0-0	49.4	989	848	57.66%	24.37%	17.97%	+0.67	-3.7	14
2012-11-09	@ Libertas	D 0-0	49.4	848	989	17.97%	24.37%	57.66%	-0.67	+3.7	11
2012-11-10	Faetano	D 1-1	53.4	865	805	48.47%	25.47%	26.06%	+0.34	-1.8	10
2012-11-10	@ San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.4	805	865	26.06%	25.47%	48.47%	-0.34	+1.8	5
2012-11-10	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	47.6	759	816	32.59%	25.81%	41.59%	-0.14	+15.0	7
2012-11-10	@ Domagnano	L 1-2	47.6	816	759	41.59%	25.81%	32.59%	+0.14	-15.0	5
2012-11-10	Virtus	W 1-0	34.7	977	829	58.37%	24.24%	17.39%	+0.70	+7.8	17
2012-11-10	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	34.7	829	977	17.39%	24.24%	58.37%	-0.70	-7.8	4
2012-11-11	Cosmos	D 3-3	62.5	792	932	22.74%	25.14%	52.12%	-0.48	+1.5	6
2012-11-11	@ Cailungo	D 3-3	62.5	932	792	52.12%	25.14%	22.74%	+0.48	-1.5	15
2012-11-11	Fiorentino	W 2-1	41.3	976	876	53.29%	25.00%	21.70%	+0.50	+9.0	16
2012-11-11	@ La Fiorita	L 1-2	41.3	876	976	21.70%	25.00%	53.29%	-0.50	-9.0	8
2012-11-11	Murata	L 0-5	31.0	810	940	23.75%	25.25%	50.99%	-0.44	-45.2	5
2012-11-11	@ Pennarossa	W 5-0	31.0	940	810	50.99%	25.25%	23.75%	+0.44	+45.2	17
2012-11-17	Cosmos	D 0-0	49.1	807	931	24.42%	25.32%	50.25%	-0.41	+2.3	6
2012-11-17	@ Faetano	D 0-0	49.1	931	807	50.25%	25.32%	24.42%	+0.41	-2.3	16
2012-11-17	Murata	L 1-2	42.5	867	986	25.02%	25.38%	49.60%	-0.39	-10.1	8
2012-11-17	@ Fiorentino	W 2-1	42.5	986	867	49.60%	25.38%	25.02%	+0.39	+10.1	20
2012-11-17	Pennarossa	L 1-2	48.4	794	765	44.58%	25.71%	29.71%	+0.21	-15.8	6
2012-11-17	@ Cailungo	W 2-1	48.4	765	794	29.71%	25.71%	44.58%	-0.21	+15.8	8
2012-11-17	Tre Penne	W 3-1	40.7	985	985	40.61%	25.84%	33.56%	+0.09	+22.0	19
2012-11-17	@ La Fiorita	L 1-3	40.7	985	985	33.56%	25.84%	40.61%	-0.09	-22.0	17
2012-11-18	Domagnano	L 0-2	39.4	821	774	46.90%	25.58%	27.52%	+0.28	-33.0	4
2012-11-18	@ Virtus	W 2-0	39.4	774	821	27.52%	25.58%	46.90%	-0.28	+33.0	10
2012-11-18	Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	40.0	801	852	33.51%	25.84%	40.66%	-0.11	-13.5	5
2012-11-18	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 1-0	40.0	852	801	40.66%	25.84%	33.51%	+0.11	+13.5	14
2012-11-18	Libertas	L 1-2	43.8	903	985	29.33%	25.69%	44.98%	-0.24	-11.5	9
2012-11-18	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-1	43.8	985	903	44.98%	25.69%	29.33%	+0.24	+11.5	17
2012-11-24	Cailungo	D 0-0	49.1	865	778	51.77%	25.18%	23.06%	+0.45	-2.6	15
2012-11-24	@ Folgore Falciano	D 0-0	49.1	778	865	23.06%	25.18%	51.77%	-0.45	+2.6	7
2012-11-24	Libertas	D 1-1	53.8	807	997	18.09%	24.39%	57.51%	-0.68	+3.3	11
2012-11-24	@ Domagnano	D 1-1	53.8	997	807	57.51%	24.39%	18.09%	+0.68	-3.3	18
2012-11-24	Pennarossa	W 1-0	39.7	788	781	41.60%	25.81%	32.59%	+0.12	+13.2	8
2012-11-24	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	39.7	781	788	32.59%	25.81%	41.60%	-0.12	-13.2	8
2012-11-24	Virtus	W 4-2	40.5	892	788	53.67%	24.96%	21.37%	+0.52	+13.7	12
2012-11-24	@ Tre Fiori	L 2-4	40.5	788	892	21.37%	24.96%	53.67%	-0.52	-13.7	4
2012-11-25	Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.3	809	857	33.89%	25.84%	40.26%	-0.10	+0.5	7
2012-11-25	@ Faetano	D 1-1	53.3	857	809	40.26%	25.84%	33.89%	+0.10	-0.5	9
2012-11-25	La Fiorita	W 2-1	50.6	863	1007	22.31%	25.08%	52.61%	-0.50	+18.2	13
2012-11-25	@ San Giovanni	L 1-2	50.6	1007	863	52.61%	25.08%	22.31%	+0.50	-18.2	19
2012-11-25	Tre Penne	W 2-1	43.8	996	963	45.04%	25.68%	29.28%	+0.23	+11.5	23
2012-11-25	@ Murata	L 1-2	43.8	963	996	29.28%	25.68%	45.04%	-0.23	-11.5	17
2012-12-01	Faetano	L 0-1	46.8	952	810	57.72%	24.36%	17.92%	+0.67	-21.0	17
2012-12-01	@ Tre Penne	W 1-0	46.8	810	952	17.92%	24.36%	57.72%	-0.67	+21.0	10
2012-12-01	La Fiorita	D 2-2	58.6	905	989	29.19%	25.68%	45.13%	-0.25	+0.9	13
2012-12-01	@ Tre Fiori	D 2-2	58.6	989	905	45.13%	25.68%	29.19%	+0.25	-0.9	20
2012-12-01	Murata	W 1-0	45.5	862	1007	22.27%	25.08%	52.65%	-0.50	+19.4	18
2012-12-01	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	45.5	1007	862	52.65%	25.08%	22.27%	+0.50	-19.4	23
2012-12-01	San Giovanni	D 3-3	62.5	994	881	54.65%	24.83%	20.52%	+0.55	-1.8	19
2012-12-01	@ Libertas	D 3-3	62.5	881	994	20.52%	24.83%	54.65%	-0.55	+1.8	14
2012-12-02	Cailungo	L 0-1	43.3	810	781	44.63%	25.70%	29.66%	+0.21	-16.8	11
2012-12-02	@ Domagnano	W 1-0	43.3	781	810	29.66%	25.70%	44.63%	-0.21	+16.8	10
2012-12-02	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	46.5	929	801	56.27%	24.60%	19.14%	+0.61	-20.5	16
2012-12-02	@ Cosmos	W 1-0	46.5	801	929	19.14%	24.60%	56.27%	-0.61	+20.5	11
2012-12-02	Pennarossa	L 1-2	47.5	774	767	41.57%	25.81%	32.62%	+0.12	-15.0	4
2012-12-02	@ Virtus	W 2-1	47.5	767	774	32.62%	25.81%	41.57%	-0.12	+15.0	11
2012-12-15	Faetano	W 2-1	43.1	882	831	47.42%	25.55%	27.04%	+0.30	+10.8	21
2012-12-15	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	43.1	831	882	27.04%	25.55%	47.42%	-0.30	-10.8	10
2012-12-15	Juvenes Dogana	D 0-0	49.1	906	821	51.52%	25.20%	23.28%	+0.44	-2.6	14
2012-12-15	@ Tre Fiori	D 0-0	49.1	821	906	23.28%	25.20%	51.52%	-0.44	+2.6	12
2012-12-15	Libertas	D 0-0	49.0	908	992	29.15%	25.68%	45.17%	-0.25	+1.4	17
2012-12-15	@ Cosmos	D 0-0	49.0	992	908	45.17%	25.68%	29.15%	+0.25	-1.4	20
2012-12-15	Virtus	W 4-0	29.5	856	759	52.91%	25.05%	22.04%	+0.49	+34.5	12
2012-12-15	@ Fiorentino	L 0-4	29.5	759	856	22.04%	25.05%	52.91%	-0.49	-34.5	4
2012-12-16	Cailungo	W 1-0	35.2	931	798	56.82%	24.51%	18.68%	+0.64	+8.4	20
2012-12-16	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	35.2	798	931	18.68%	24.51%	56.82%	-0.64	-8.4	10
2012-12-16	La Fiorita	L 2-4	38.9	782	988	16.82%	24.11%	59.07%	-0.75	-11.1	11
2012-12-16	@ Pennarossa	W 4-2	38.9	988	782	59.07%	24.11%	16.82%	+0.75	+11.1	23
2012-12-16	Murata	W 1-0	44.2	883	988	26.58%	25.51%	47.90%	-0.34	+17.8	17
2012-12-16	@ San Giovanni	L 0-1	44.2	988	883	47.90%	25.51%	26.58%	+0.34	-17.8	23
2012-12-22	Cosmos	L 1-4	32.9	725	909	18.54%	24.48%	56.98%	-0.66	-19.1	4
2012-12-22	@ Virtus	W 4-1	32.9	909	725	56.98%	24.48%	18.54%	+0.66	+19.1	20
2012-12-22	Domagnano	W 3-0	27.1	970	794	61.04%	23.71%	15.26%	+0.81	+19.0	26
2012-12-22	@ Murata	L 0-3	27.1	794	970	15.26%	23.71%	61.04%	-0.81	-19.0	11
2012-12-22	San Giovanni	D 2-2	58.7	789	901	25.85%	25.45%	48.70%	-0.36	+1.4	11
2012-12-22	@ Cailungo	D 2-2	58.7	901	789	48.70%	25.45%	25.85%	+0.36	-1.4	18
2012-12-22	Tre Penne	W 1-0	44.6	824	939	25.46%	25.42%	49.12%	-0.38	+18.2	15
2012-12-22	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	44.6	939	824	49.12%	25.42%	25.46%	+0.38	-18.2	20
2012-12-23	Folgore Falciano	D 0-0	49.2	999	893	53.98%	24.92%	21.10%	+0.53	-3.0	24
2012-12-23	@ La Fiorita	D 0-0	49.2	893	999	21.10%	24.92%	53.98%	-0.53	+3.0	22
2012-12-23	Libertas	L 1-3	38.7	891	990	27.21%	25.56%	47.23%	-0.32	-18.7	12
2012-12-23	@ Fiorentino	W 3-1	38.7	990	891	47.23%	25.56%	27.21%	+0.32	+18.7	23
2012-12-23	Tre Fiori	W 2-0	38.9	820	904	29.14%	25.68%	45.18%	-0.25	+32.0	13
2012-12-23	@ Faetano	L 0-2	38.9	904	820	45.18%	25.68%	29.14%	+0.25	-32.0	14
2013-02-02	Cailungo	L 0-3	38.3	872	791	51.09%	25.24%	23.66%	+0.42	-51.6	14
2013-02-02	@ Tre Fiori	W 3-0	38.3	791	872	23.66%	25.24%	51.09%	-0.42	+51.6	14
2013-02-02	Cosmos	D 1-1	53.5	989	929	48.57%	25.46%	25.97%	+0.34	-1.8	27
2013-02-02	@ Murata	D 1-1	53.5	929	989	25.97%	25.46%	48.57%	-0.34	+1.8	21
2013-02-02	Domagnano	W 3-2	42.5	996	774	64.92%	22.72%	12.36%	+1.00	+5.1	27
2013-02-02	@ La Fiorita	L 2-3	42.5	774	996	12.36%	22.72%	64.92%	-1.00	-5.1	11
2013-02-02	Pennarossa	W 2-1	42.0	852	771	51.04%	25.25%	23.71%	+0.42	+9.7	16
2013-02-02	@ Faetano	L 1-2	42.0	771	852	23.71%	25.25%	51.04%	-0.42	-9.7	11
2013-02-06	Fiorentino	L 0-1	40.9	842	872	36.39%	25.87%	37.74%	-0.03	-14.3	15
2013-02-06	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 1-0	40.9	872	842	37.74%	25.87%	36.39%	+0.03	+14.3	15
2013-02-06	Libertas	L 1-3	39.2	921	1009	28.56%	25.65%	45.79%	-0.27	-19.4	20
2013-02-06	@ Tre Penne	W 3-1	39.2	1009	921	45.79%	25.65%	28.56%	+0.27	+19.4	26
2013-02-06	San Giovanni	D 0-0	49.4	706	899	17.79%	24.33%	57.88%	-0.70	+3.8	5
2013-02-06	@ Virtus	D 0-0	49.4	899	706	57.88%	24.33%	17.79%	+0.70	-3.8	19
2013-02-09	Cailungo	W 3-1	38.9	886	842	46.53%	25.60%	27.87%	+0.27	+19.1	18
2013-02-09	@ Fiorentino	L 1-3	38.9	842	886	27.87%	25.60%	46.53%	-0.27	-19.1	14
2013-02-09	Juvenes Dogana	W 4-3	49.8	895	828	49.46%	25.39%	25.15%	+0.37	+9.4	22
2013-02-09	@ San Giovanni	L 3-4	49.8	828	895	25.15%	25.39%	49.46%	-0.37	-9.4	15
2013-02-09	Pennarossa	D 0-0	50.2	1029	762	68.43%	21.59%	9.98%	+1.18	-5.8	27
2013-02-09	@ Libertas	D 0-0	50.2	762	1029	9.98%	21.59%	68.43%	-1.18	+5.8	12
2013-02-09	Virtus	W 3-1	34.3	896	709	61.91%	23.51%	14.58%	+0.85	+10.9	25
2013-02-09	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-3	34.3	709	896	14.58%	23.51%	61.91%	-0.85	-10.9	5
2013-02-10	Cosmos	L 0-2	40.2	1001	930	49.82%	25.36%	24.81%	+0.38	-34.8	27
2013-02-10	@ La Fiorita	W 2-0	40.2	930	1001	24.81%	25.36%	49.82%	-0.38	+34.8	24
2013-02-10	Faetano	D 0-0	49.0	769	862	28.12%	25.62%	46.27%	-0.28	+1.6	12
2013-02-10	@ Domagnano	D 0-0	49.0	862	769	46.27%	25.62%	28.12%	+0.28	-1.6	17
2013-02-10	Murata	L 0-1	35.7	820	987	20.11%	24.76%	55.13%	-0.59	-8.9	14
2013-02-10	@ Tre Fiori	W 1-0	35.7	987	820	55.13%	24.76%	20.11%	+0.59	+8.9	30
2013-02-16	Fiorentino	D 2-2	58.7	771	905	23.33%	25.21%	51.46%	-0.46	+1.7	13
2013-02-16	@ Domagnano	D 2-2	58.7	905	771	51.46%	25.21%	23.33%	+0.46	-1.7	19
2013-02-16	Murata	W 1-0	38.9	1023	996	44.26%	25.72%	30.02%	+0.20	+12.4	30
2013-02-16	@ Libertas	L 0-1	38.9	996	1023	30.02%	25.72%	44.26%	-0.20	-12.4	30
2013-02-16	Tre Penne	L 0-1	38.4	811	901	28.38%	25.63%	45.99%	-0.28	-11.9	14
2013-02-16	@ Tre Fiori	W 1-0	38.4	901	811	45.99%	25.63%	28.38%	+0.28	+11.8	23
2013-02-16	Virtus	W 2-1	36.8	966	699	68.47%	21.57%	9.95%	+1.19	+4.3	30
2013-02-16	@ La Fiorita	L 1-2	36.8	699	966	9.95%	21.57%	68.47%	-1.19	-4.3	5
2013-02-17	Faetano	L 1-4	38.4	823	860	35.37%	25.86%	38.76%	-0.06	-32.4	14
2013-02-17	@ Cailungo	W 4-1	38.4	860	823	38.76%	25.86%	35.37%	+0.06	+32.4	20
2013-02-17	Pennarossa	W 1-0	35.0	906	767	57.44%	24.41%	18.15%	+0.66	+8.1	28
2013-02-17	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	35.0	767	906	18.15%	24.41%	57.44%	-0.66	-8.1	12
2013-02-17	San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.5	965	905	48.58%	25.46%	25.95%	+0.34	-1.8	25
2013-02-17	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	53.5	905	965	25.95%	25.46%	48.58%	-0.34	+1.8	23
2013-03-01	Cailungo	L 1-3	43.9	818	791	44.40%	25.71%	29.88%	+0.21	-27.3	15
2013-03-01	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-1	43.9	791	818	29.88%	25.71%	44.40%	-0.21	+27.3	17
2013-03-01	Cosmos	W 2-0	37.6	913	963	33.51%	25.84%	40.65%	-0.11	+29.4	26
2013-03-01	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	37.6	963	913	40.65%	25.84%	33.51%	+0.11	-29.4	25
2013-03-01	Faetano	W 2-0	30.3	1035	892	57.81%	24.34%	17.85%	+0.68	+15.1	33
2013-03-01	@ Libertas	L 0-2	30.3	892	1035	17.85%	24.34%	57.81%	-0.68	-15.1	20
2013-03-01	Tre Fiori	L 0-3	39.3	915	799	54.94%	24.79%	20.27%	+0.56	-55.1	28
2013-03-01	@ Folgore Falciano	W 3-0	39.3	799	915	20.27%	24.79%	54.94%	-0.56	+55.1	17
2013-03-02	Fiorentino	L 1-4	34.2	759	904	22.28%	25.08%	52.64%	-0.50	-22.5	12
2013-03-02	@ Pennarossa	W 4-1	34.2	904	759	52.64%	25.08%	22.28%	+0.50	+22.5	22
2013-03-02	Murata	W 1-0	48.8	694	984	11.37%	22.29%	66.34%	-1.09	+23.9	8
2013-03-02	@ Virtus	L 0-1	48.8	984	694	66.34%	22.29%	11.37%	+1.09	-23.9	30
2013-03-02	San Giovanni	W 2-1	50.3	773	907	23.38%	25.21%	51.40%	-0.45	+17.9	16
2013-03-02	@ Domagnano	L 1-2	50.3	907	773	51.40%	25.21%	23.38%	+0.45	-17.9	23
2013-03-12	Domagnano	W 1-0	34.6	942	791	58.71%	24.18%	17.11%	+0.71	+7.7	29
2013-03-12	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	34.6	791	942	17.11%	24.18%	58.71%	-0.71	-7.7	16
2013-03-12	Juvenes Dogana	W 5-3	40.2	960	791	60.31%	23.86%	15.83%	+0.78	+9.9	33
2013-03-12	@ Murata	L 3-5	40.2	791	960	15.83%	23.86%	60.31%	-0.78	-9.9	15
2013-03-12	La Fiorita	L 1-2	43.4	877	971	27.98%	25.61%	46.41%	-0.29	-11.0	20
2013-03-12	@ Faetano	W 2-1	43.4	971	877	46.41%	25.61%	27.98%	+0.29	+11.1	33
2013-03-13	Folgore Falciano	D 1-1	53.5	926	860	49.35%	25.40%	25.25%	+0.36	-1.9	23
2013-03-13	@ Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.5	860	926	25.25%	25.40%	49.35%	-0.36	+1.9	29
2013-03-13	Libertas	L 1-2	38.9	818	1050	14.84%	23.58%	61.57%	-0.86	-6.4	17
2013-03-13	@ Cailungo	W 2-1	38.9	1050	818	61.57%	23.58%	14.84%	+0.86	+6.4	36
2013-03-13	Pennarossa	D 1-1	53.8	889	737	58.73%	24.18%	17.10%	+0.71	-3.5	24
2013-03-13	@ San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.8	737	889	17.10%	24.18%	58.73%	-0.71	+3.5	13
2013-03-13	Tre Fiori	W 1-0	36.9	934	854	50.91%	25.26%	23.83%	+0.42	+10.3	28
2013-03-13	@ Cosmos	L 0-1	36.9	854	934	23.83%	25.26%	50.91%	-0.42	-10.3	17
2013-03-14	Cosmos	L 1-2	46.4	924	944	37.77%	25.87%	36.36%	+0.01	-13.9	23
2013-03-14	@ Fiorentino	W 2-1	46.4	944	924	36.36%	25.87%	37.77%	-0.01	+13.9	31
2013-03-16	Domagnano	W 1-0	33.9	958	783	60.93%	23.73%	15.34%	+0.81	+7.0	34
2013-03-16	@ Cosmos	L 0-1	33.9	783	958	15.34%	23.73%	60.93%	-0.81	-7.0	16
2013-03-16	Murata	W 2-0	41.4	812	970	20.95%	24.89%	54.16%	-0.55	+37.4	20
2013-03-16	@ Cailungo	L 0-2	41.4	970	812	54.16%	24.89%	20.95%	+0.55	-37.4	33
2013-03-16	San Giovanni	W 4-0	32.1	910	885	44.03%	25.73%	30.24%	+0.19	+44.6	26
2013-03-16	@ Fiorentino	L 0-4	32.1	885	910	30.24%	25.73%	44.03%	-0.19	-44.6	24
2013-03-16	Virtus	L 1-2	49.6	781	718	48.91%	25.44%	25.65%	+0.35	-17.1	15
2013-03-16	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	49.6	718	781	25.65%	25.44%	48.91%	-0.35	+17.1	11
2013-03-17	Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	50.5	950	861	51.98%	25.15%	22.87%	+0.45	-18.0	29
2013-03-17	@ Tre Penne	W 2-1	50.5	861	950	22.87%	25.15%	51.98%	-0.45	+18.0	32
2013-03-17	Libertas	L 0-1	39.0	982	1057	30.24%	25.73%	44.03%	-0.21	-12.5	33
2013-03-17	@ La Fiorita	W 1-0	39.0	1057	982	44.03%	25.73%	30.24%	+0.21	+12.5	39
2013-03-17	Pennarossa	L 0-2	41.3	844	740	53.70%	24.95%	21.35%	+0.52	-37.1	17
2013-03-17	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-0	41.3	740	844	21.35%	24.95%	53.70%	-0.52	+37.1	16
2013-03-28	Cailungo	L 4-5	51.0	735	849	25.58%	25.43%	48.99%	-0.37	-9.4	11
2013-03-28	@ Virtus	W 5-4	51.0	849	735	48.99%	25.43%	25.58%	+0.37	+9.4	23
2013-03-29	Cosmos	W 1-0	43.5	879	965	28.91%	25.66%	45.43%	-0.26	+17.1	35
2013-03-29	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	43.5	965	879	45.43%	25.66%	28.91%	+0.26	-17.0	34
2013-03-29	Domagnano	L 2-3	52.0	777	776	40.81%	25.83%	33.35%	+0.10	-14.0	16
2013-03-29	@ Pennarossa	W 3-2	52.0	776	777	33.35%	25.83%	40.81%	-0.10	+14.0	19
2013-03-29	Faetano	W 2-1	42.5	932	866	49.27%	25.41%	25.32%	+0.36	+10.2	36
2013-03-29	@ Murata	L 1-2	42.5	866	932	25.32%	25.41%	49.27%	-0.36	-10.2	20
2013-03-29	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	38.3	969	764	63.56%	23.10%	13.35%	+0.93	+5.8	36
2013-03-29	@ La Fiorita	L 1-2	38.3	764	969	13.35%	23.10%	63.56%	-0.93	-5.8	15
2013-03-29	San Giovanni	W 2-0	32.0	932	841	52.29%	25.12%	22.59%	+0.47	+18.5	32
2013-03-29	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	32.0	841	932	22.59%	25.12%	52.29%	-0.47	-18.5	24
2013-03-29	Tre Fiori	W 3-1	35.4	955	807	58.32%	24.25%	17.43%	+0.70	+12.8	29
2013-03-29	@ Fiorentino	L 1-3	35.4	807	955	17.43%	24.25%	58.32%	-0.70	-12.8	17
2013-04-06	Fiorentino	W 1-0	40.7	951	968	38.21%	25.87%	35.92%	+0.02	+14.2	35
2013-04-06	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	40.7	968	951	35.92%	25.87%	38.21%	-0.02	-14.2	29
2013-04-06	La Fiorita	L 2-3	47.2	858	975	25.27%	25.40%	49.32%	-0.38	-9.7	23
2013-04-06	@ Cailungo	W 3-2	47.2	975	858	49.32%	25.40%	25.27%	+0.38	+9.7	39
2013-04-06	Tre Fiori	W 3-0	33.4	790	794	40.01%	25.85%	34.14%	+0.07	+37.4	22
2013-04-06	@ Domagnano	L 0-3	33.4	794	790	34.14%	25.85%	40.01%	-0.07	-37.4	17
2013-04-07	Faetano	D 0-0	49.1	726	856	23.78%	25.26%	50.96%	-0.44	+2.5	12
2013-04-07	@ Virtus	D 0-0	49.1	856	726	50.96%	25.26%	23.78%	+0.44	-2.5	21
2013-04-07	Libertas	L 2-3	41.6	758	1069	10.28%	21.75%	67.97%	-1.18	-4.2	15
2013-04-07	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-2	41.6	1069	758	67.97%	21.75%	10.28%	+1.18	+4.2	42
2013-04-07	Pennarossa	D 1-1	54.0	948	763	61.79%	23.53%	14.68%	+0.85	-4.1	35
2013-04-07	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	54.0	763	948	14.68%	23.53%	61.79%	-0.85	+4.1	17
2013-04-07	San Giovanni	W 2-0	32.6	897	822	50.29%	25.32%	24.39%	+0.40	+19.8	38
2013-04-07	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-2	32.6	822	897	24.39%	25.32%	50.29%	-0.40	-19.8	24
2013-04-13	Juvenes Dogana	L 2-4	50.0	854	754	53.19%	25.02%	21.79%	+0.50	-28.5	21
2013-04-13	@ Faetano	W 4-2	50.0	754	854	21.79%	25.02%	53.19%	-0.50	+28.5	18
2013-04-13	Murata	W 1-0	38.3	985	942	46.26%	25.62%	28.12%	+0.26	+11.8	42
2013-04-13	@ La Fiorita	L 0-1	38.3	942	985	28.12%	25.62%	46.26%	-0.26	-11.8	36
2013-04-13	Virtus	W 1-0	30.1	1073	728	73.62%	19.44%	6.93%	+1.50	+3.1	45
2013-04-13	@ Libertas	L 0-1	30.1	728	1073	6.93%	19.44%	73.62%	-1.50	-3.1	12
2013-04-14	Folgore Falciano	D 2-2	58.6	827	916	28.50%	25.64%	45.85%	-0.27	+1.0	23
2013-04-14	@ Domagnano	D 2-2	58.6	916	827	45.85%	25.64%	28.50%	+0.27	-1.0	39
2013-04-14	San Giovanni	L 2-3	50.0	757	802	34.16%	25.85%	39.99%	-0.09	-12.2	17
2013-04-14	@ Tre Fiori	W 3-2	50.0	802	757	39.99%	25.85%	34.16%	+0.09	+12.2	27
2013-04-14	Tre Penne	W 2-0	42.4	767	965	17.47%	24.26%	58.27%	-0.71	+40.0	20
2013-04-14	@ Pennarossa	L 0-2	42.4	965	767	58.27%	24.26%	17.47%	+0.71	-40.0	35

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2013-05-06	Cosmos	W 5-4	52.4	996	944	44.32%	25.72%	29.97%	+0.21	+10.7	1-0
2013-05-06	@ La Fiorita	L 4-5	52.4	944	996	29.97%	25.72%	44.32%	-0.21	-10.6	0-1
2013-05-06	Murata	L 1-2	46.0	925	931	36.23%	25.87%	37.90%	-0.02	-13.5	0-1
2013-05-06	@ Tre Penne	W 2-1	46.0	931	925	37.90%	25.87%	36.23%	+0.02	+13.5	1-0
2013-05-10	Murata	W 4-2	42.9	1007	944	45.70%	25.65%	28.65%	+0.26	+17.4	2-0
2013-05-10	@ La Fiorita	L 2-4	42.9	944	1007	28.65%	25.65%	45.70%	-0.26	-17.4	1-1
2013-05-11	Tre Penne	L 3-4	54.4	933	911	40.19%	25.84%	33.97%	+0.09	-13.5	0-2
2013-05-11	@ Cosmos	W 4-3	54.4	911	933	33.97%	25.84%	40.19%	-0.09	+13.5	1-1
2013-05-13	Libertas	L 0-2	30.5	915	1076	18.41%	24.46%	57.14%	-0.66	-15.5	0-1
2013-05-13	@ Folgore Falciano	W 2-0	30.5	1076	915	57.14%	24.46%	18.41%	+0.66	+15.5	1-0
2013-05-14	Murata	W 2-0	36.6	925	927	36.80%	25.87%	37.33%	-0.01	+27.6	2-1
2013-05-14	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	36.6	927	925	37.33%	25.87%	36.80%	+0.01	-27.6	1-2
2013-05-17	La Fiorita	W 1-0	38.3	1092	1024	46.33%	25.61%	28.06%	+0.28	+11.7	2-0
2013-05-17	@ Libertas	L 0-1	38.3	1024	1092	28.06%	25.61%	46.33%	-0.28	-11.8	2-1
2013-05-18	Folgore Falciano	W 2-0	34.4	952	900	44.38%	25.72%	29.91%	+0.22	+23.3	3-1
2013-05-18	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	34.4	900	952	29.91%	25.72%	44.38%	-0.22	-23.3	0-2
2013-05-23	La Fiorita	W 1-0	42.6	976	1013	31.96%	25.79%	42.25%	-0.15	+16.1	4-1
2013-05-23	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	42.6	1013	976	42.25%	25.79%	31.96%	+0.15	-16.1	2-2
2013-05-27	Tre Penne	L 3-5	51.4	1104	992	51.76%	25.18%	23.06%	+0.46	-26.3	2-1
2013-05-27	@ Libertas	W 5-3	51.4	992	1104	23.06%	25.18%	51.76%	-0.46	+26.3	5-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2013-03-02	11.37%	@ Virtus	694	1	Murata	984	0
2	2013-04-14	17.47%	@ Pennarossa	767	2	Tre Penne	965	0
3	2012-12-01	17.92%	Faetano	810	1	@ Tre Penne	952	0
4	2012-12-02	19.14%	Juvenes Dogana	801	1	@ Cosmos	929	0
5	2013-03-01	20.27%	Tre Fiori	799	3	@ Folgore Falciano	915	0
6	2013-03-16	20.95%	@ Cailungo	812	2	Murata	970	0
7	2013-03-17	21.35%	Pennarossa	740	2	@ Tre Fiori	844	0
8	2013-04-13	21.79%	Juvenes Dogana	754	4	@ Faetano	854	2
9	2012-12-01	22.27%	@ Folgore Falciano	862	1	Murata	1007	0
10	2012-11-25	22.31%	@ San Giovanni	863	2	La Fiorita	1007	1
11	2013-03-17	22.87%	Folgore Falciano	861	2	@ Tre Penne	950	1
12	2013-05-27 *	23.06%	Tre Penne	992	5	@ Libertas	1104	3
13	2013-03-02	23.38%	@ Domagnano	773	2	San Giovanni	907	1
14	2013-02-02	23.66%	Cailungo	791	3	@ Tre Fiori	872	0
15	2013-02-10	24.81%	Cosmos	930	2	@ La Fiorita	1001	0
16	2012-12-22	25.46%	@ Juvenes Dogana	824	1	Tre Penne	939	0
17	2013-03-16	25.65%	Virtus	718	2	@ Juvenes Dogana	781	1
18	2012-10-06	25.92%	@ Folgore Falciano	843	1	Tre Penne	954	0
19	2012-09-30	26.45%	Folgore Falciano	826	2	@ Tre Fiori	883	1
20	2012-12-16	26.58%	@ San Giovanni	883	1	Murata	988	0
21	2012-11-18	27.52%	Domagnano	774	2	@ Virtus	821	0
22	2012-10-06	28.20%	La Fiorita	932	1	@ Libertas	973	0
23	2012-09-15	28.84%	Cailungo	839	2	@ Faetano	875	0
24	2013-03-29	28.91%	@ Folgore Falciano	879	1	Cosmos	965	0
25	2012-12-23	29.14%	@ Faetano	820	2	Tre Fiori	904	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-03-01	55.07	Tre Fiori	3	799	20.27%	@ Folgore Falciano	0	915	54.94%	24.79%
2	2013-02-02	51.62	Cailungo	3	791	23.66%	@ Tre Fiori	0	872	51.09%	25.24%
3	2012-09-23	45.45	@ Libertas	6	896	44.06%	Cailungo	1	871	30.21%	25.73%
4	2012-11-11	45.24	Murata	5	940	50.99%	@ Pennarossa	0	810	23.75%	25.25%
5	2013-03-16	44.56	@ Fiorentino	4	910	44.03%	San Giovanni	0	885	30.24%	25.73%
6	2013-04-14	40.00	@ Pennarossa	2	767	17.47%	Tre Penne	0	965	58.27%	24.26%
7	2013-04-06	37.44	@ Domagnano	3	790	40.01%	Tre Fiori	0	794	34.14%	25.85%
8	2013-03-16	37.43	@ Cailungo	2	812	20.95%	Murata	0	970	54.16%	24.89%
9	2013-03-17	37.14	Pennarossa	2	740	21.35%	@ Tre Fiori	0	844	53.70%	24.95%
10	2013-02-10	34.77	Cosmos	2	930	24.81%	@ La Fiorita	0	1001	49.82%	25.36%
11	2012-12-15	34.48	@ Fiorentino	4	856	52.91%	Virtus	0	759	22.04%	25.05%
12	2012-11-18	33.02	Domagnano	2	774	27.52%	@ Virtus	0	821	46.90%	25.58%
13	2013-02-17	32.43	Faetano	4	860	38.76%	@ Cailungo	1	823	35.37%	25.86%
14	2012-09-15	32.20	Cailungo	2	839	28.84%	@ Faetano	0	875	45.50%	25.66%
15	2012-12-23	32.01	@ Faetano	2	820	29.14%	Tre Fiori	0	904	45.18%	25.68%
16	2012-09-30	31.74	Libertas	3	942	46.83%	@ Faetano	0	845	27.59%	25.58%
17	2013-03-01	29.41	@ Tre Penne	2	913	33.51%	Cosmos	0	963	40.65%	25.84%
18	2013-04-13	28.53	Juvenes Dogana	4	754	21.79%	@ Faetano	2	854	53.19%	25.02%
19	2013-05-14 *	27.56	@ Tre Penne	2	925	36.80%	Murata	0	927	37.33%	25.87%
20	2013-03-01	27.32	Cailungo	3	791	29.88%	@ Juvenes Dogana	1	818	44.40%	25.71%
21	2012-09-16	27.01	La Fiorita	2	907	37.81%	@ Virtus	0	877	36.32%	25.87%
22	2013-05-27 *	26.31	Tre Penne	5	992	23.06%	@ Libertas	3	1104	51.76%	25.18%
23	2012-09-16	25.93	@ Tre Penne	2	917	39.74%	Tre Fiori	0	924	34.41%	25.85%
24	2012-09-23	24.77	Murata	3	882	34.93%	@ Juvenes Dogana	1	872	39.22%	25.86%
25	2012-09-29	24.68	@ Fiorentino	2	862	41.95%	Pennarossa	0	852	32.25%	25.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-11-11	62.5	@ Cailungo	3	792	22.74%	Cosmos	3	932	52.12%	25.14%
2	2012-12-01	62.5	@ Libertas	3	994	54.65%	San Giovanni	3	881	20.52%	24.83%
3	2012-09-16	62.3	@ Fiorentino	3	863	47.03%	Domagnano	3	815	27.40%	25.57%
4	2012-10-28	62.3	@ San Giovanni	3	880	44.64%	Folgore Falciano	3	850	29.65%	25.70%
5	2012-09-14	62.2	@ San Giovanni	3	864	37.46%	Cosmos	3	886	36.67%	25.87%
6	2012-12-22	58.7	@ Cailungo	2	789	25.85%	San Giovanni	2	901	48.70%	25.45%
7	2013-02-16	58.7	@ Domagnano	2	771	23.33%	Fiorentino	2	905	51.46%	25.21%
8	2012-09-15	58.6	@ Pennarossa	2	876	47.37%	Folgore Falciano	2	825	27.08%	25.55%
9	2012-12-01	58.6	@ Tre Fiori	2	905	29.19%	La Fiorita	2	989	45.13%	25.68%
10	2013-04-14	58.6	@ Domagnano	2	827	28.50%	Folgore Falciano	2	916	45.85%	25.64%
11	2012-09-28	58.5	@ Cailungo	2	826	37.59%	Juvenes Dogana	2	847	36.54%	25.87%
12	2013-05-11 *	54.4	Tre Penne	4	911	33.97%	@ Cosmos	3	933	40.19%	25.84%
13	2013-04-07	54.0	@ Cosmos	1	948	61.79%	Pennarossa	1	763	14.68%	23.53%
14	2012-11-24	53.8	@ Domagnano	1	807	18.09%	Libertas	1	997	57.51%	24.39%
15	2013-03-13	53.8	@ San Giovanni	1	889	58.73%	Pennarossa	1	737	17.10%	24.18%
16	2012-09-22	53.6	@ La Fiorita	1	934	52.32%	Faetano	1	843	22.57%	25.12%
17	2012-11-03	53.5	@ Cosmos	1	934	48.57%	Fiorentino	1	874	25.97%	25.46%
18	2013-02-02	53.5	@ Murata	1	989	48.57%	Cosmos	1	929	25.97%	25.46%
19	2013-02-17	53.5	@ Cosmos	1	965	48.58%	San Giovanni	1	905	25.95%	25.46%
20	2013-03-13	53.5	@ Fiorentino	1	926	49.35%	Folgore Falciano	1	860	25.25%	25.40%
21	2012-10-06	53.4	@ San Giovanni	1	903	42.87%	Fiorentino	1	887	31.35%	25.77%
22	2012-10-28	53.4	@ Fiorentino	1	873	28.85%	Tre Penne	1	959	45.49%	25.66%
23	2012-11-10	53.4	@ San Giovanni	1	865	48.47%	Faetano	1	805	26.06%	25.47%
24	2012-09-15	53.3	@ Murata	1	882	38.61%	Libertas	1	896	35.52%	25.87%
25	2012-09-22	53.3	@ Folgore Falciano	1	826	35.48%	Fiorentino	1	862	38.66%	25.86%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-12-22	27.1	@ Murata	3	970	61.04%	Domagnano	0	794	15.26%	23.71%
2	2012-10-28	27.6	@ La Fiorita	3	971	59.28%	Cailungo	0	813	16.65%	24.07%
3	2012-10-27	28.4	@ Libertas	3	956	56.53%	Juvenes Dogana	0	826	18.92%	24.55%
4	2012-12-15	29.5	@ Fiorentino	4	856	52.91%	Virtus	0	759	22.04%	25.05%
5	2013-04-13	30.1	@ Libertas	1	1073	73.62%	Virtus	0	728	6.93%	19.44%
6	2013-03-01	30.3	@ Libertas	2	1035	57.81%	Faetano	0	892	17.85%	24.34%
7	2013-05-13 *	30.5	Libertas	2	1076	57.14%	@ Folgore Falciano	0	915	18.41%	24.46%
8	2012-11-11	31.0	Murata	5	940	50.99%	@ Pennarossa	0	810	23.75%	25.25%
9	2012-09-30	31.3	Libertas	3	942	46.83%	@ Faetano	0	845	27.59%	25.58%
10	2013-03-29	32.0	@ Tre Penne	2	932	52.29%	San Giovanni	0	841	22.59%	25.12%
11	2013-03-16	32.1	@ Fiorentino	4	910	44.03%	San Giovanni	0	885	30.24%	25.73%
12	2013-04-07	32.6	@ Folgore Falciano	2	897	50.29%	San Giovanni	0	822	24.39%	25.32%
13	2012-12-22	32.9	Cosmos	4	909	56.98%	@ Virtus	1	725	18.54%	24.48%
14	2012-11-03	33.1	@ Tre Penne	4	958	56.28%	Pennarossa	1	830	19.12%	24.59%
15	2012-10-20	33.4	La Fiorita	2	949	47.52%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	847	26.94%	25.54%
16	2013-04-06	33.4	@ Domagnano	3	790	40.01%	Tre Fiori	0	794	34.14%	25.85%
17	2013-03-16	33.9	@ Cosmos	1	958	60.93%	Domagnano	0	783	15.34%	23.73%
18	2012-10-07	34.0	Cosmos	2	888	45.59%	@ Domagnano	0	801	28.76%	25.66%
19	2012-10-20	34.1	@ Tre Penne	2	936	45.16%	San Giovanni	0	902	29.16%	25.68%
20	2013-03-02	34.2	Fiorentino	4	904	52.64%	@ Pennarossa	1	759	22.28%	25.08%
21	2013-02-09	34.3	@ Folgore Falciano	3	896	61.91%	Virtus	1	709	14.58%	23.51%
22	2013-05-18 *	34.4	@ Tre Penne	2	952	44.38%	Folgore Falciano	0	900	29.91%	25.72%
23	2012-10-27	34.5	@ Tre Fiori	4	866	51.69%	Domagnano	1	779	23.13%	25.18%
24	2013-03-12	34.6	@ Tre Penne	1	942	58.71%	Domagnano	0	791	17.11%	24.18%
25	2012-11-10	34.7	@ Tre Penne	1	977	58.37%	Virtus	0	829	17.39%	24.24%