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2014-15 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Folgore Falciano

44 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Domagnano

14.10 points above expected

36 points · 21.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cosmos

14.48 points below expected

5 points · 19.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 21 13 5 3 44 41 19 +22 43.88 +0.12
2 Juvenes Dogana 20 12 4 4 40 35 15 +20 40.81 -0.81
3 Tre Fiori 20 12 2 6 38 36 17 +19 36.20 +1.80
4 La Fiorita 21 11 5 5 38 37 25 +12 41.50 -3.50
5 Domagnano 21 11 3 7 36 27 23 +4 21.90 +14.10
6 Libertas 21 8 8 5 32 23 16 +7 32.08 -0.08
7 Faetano 20 9 5 6 32 26 21 +5 26.73 +5.27
8 Fiorentino 21 9 5 7 32 24 22 +2 26.66 +5.34
9 Pennarossa 21 9 3 9 30 33 26 +7 34.66 -4.66
10 Cailungo 20 8 4 8 28 28 28 0 23.83 +4.17
11 Virtus 20 8 4 8 28 27 28 -1 25.77 +2.23
12 Murata 20 5 5 10 20 26 34 -8 18.67 +1.33
13 Tre Penne 21 5 3 13 18 24 43 -19 27.10 -9.10
14 San Giovanni 21 2 3 16 9 21 56 -35 11.73 -2.73
15 Cosmos 20 0 5 15 5 13 48 -35 19.48 -14.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Domagnano 36 21.90 +14.10
2 Fiorentino 32 26.66 +5.34
3 Faetano 32 26.73 +5.27
4 Cailungo 28 23.83 +4.17
5 Virtus 28 25.77 +2.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cosmos 5 19.48 -14.48
2 Tre Penne 18 27.10 -9.10
3 Pennarossa 30 34.66 -4.66
4 La Fiorita 38 41.50 -3.50
5 San Giovanni 9 11.73 -2.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Fiori 5 Nov 30 – Feb 7 1 in 65
2 Faetano 3 Feb 21 – Mar 7 1 in 48
3 Fiorentino 2 Oct 19 – Oct 25 1 in 36
4 Murata 2 Sep 21 – Sep 26 1 in 28
5 Tre Penne 2 Feb 7 – Feb 15 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Penne 7 Feb 21 – Apr 18 1 in 156
2 Pennarossa 3 Mar 22 – Apr 18 1 in 43
3 Faetano 3 Sep 21 – Oct 4 1 in 39
4 La Fiorita 2 Oct 17 – Oct 26 1 in 30
5 Murata 6 Dec 13 – Feb 28 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Faetano 8 Feb 8 – Apr 19 1 in 76
2 Fiorentino 4 Sep 27 – Oct 25 1 in 67
3 Domagnano 5 Oct 18 – Nov 30 1 in 59
4 Murata 5 Oct 26 – Dec 7 1 in 58
5 Virtus 5 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cosmos 20 Sep 21 – Apr 19 1 in 614
2 Folgore Falciano 3 Oct 19 – Nov 1 1 in 30
3 Faetano 5 Sep 13 – Oct 25 1 in 19
4 Tre Penne 7 Feb 21 – Apr 18 1 in 12
5 Murata 6 Oct 5 – Nov 29 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Folgore Falciano 1076 44 +0 10 10.4 -0.4
Juvenes Dogana 1005 40 -14 10 10.7 -0.7
La Fiorita 1061 38 +68 11 9.0 +2.0
Tre Fiori 1008 38 +23 9 9.8 -0.8
Domagnano 907 36 +128 12 6.6 +5.4
Faetano 964 32 +94 13 8.8 +4.2
Libertas 901 32 +24 8 8.8 -0.8
Fiorentino 839 32 +8 7 5.2 +1.8
Pennarossa 920 30 -47 6 8.6 -2.6
Cailungo 874 28 +50 10 7.1 +2.9
Virtus 728 28 -82 4 6.2 -2.2
Murata 705 20 +19 6 4.7 +1.3
Tre Penne 573 18 -214 0 5.4 -5.4
San Giovanni 562 9 +32 3 2.2 +0.8
Cosmos 498 5 -86 0 2.9 -2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FIO FF JD LF LIB MUR PEN SG TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-0
1.72
0-0-2
2.64
0-1-0
1.02
1-0-0
0.47
0-1-1
1.18
0-0-1
0.88
0-1-0
0.68
2-0-0
2.85
0-0-1
0.74
1-0-0
2.26
1-0-1
1.63
1-0-0
1.02
0-0-2
3.22
Cosmos
0-1-1
2.35
 —
0-0-1
1.12
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-1
1.07
0-0-1
0.42
0-0-2
1.57
0-1-0
0.47
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-2
2.88
0-0-1
0.66
0-1-0
2.08
0-1-1
1.01
0-0-1
1.16
0-0-2
1.95
Domagnano
0-0-1
1.07
1-0-0
1.67
 —
0-0-1
1.44
2-0-0
1.89
0-0-2
0.85
0-0-1
0.46
0-0-2
1.18
1-1-0
1.85
1-0-0
1.14
2-0-0
1.38
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-0
0.74
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-0
1.24
Faetano
2-0-0
2.94
1-1-0
3.94
1-0-0
1.36
 —
0-1-0
1.37
0-0-1
0.77
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-0
0.69
0-0-1
0.88
1-0-1
4.24
1-0-0
0.74
0-0-1
2.09
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-0
1.03
0-1-1
3.48
Fiorentino
0-1-0
1.77
1-0-0
1.72
0-0-2
3.70
0-1-0
1.42
 —
1-0-1
1.18
0-0-1
0.72
1-0-1
1.18
0-2-0
1.95
0-1-0
1.87
1-0-1
1.88
2-0-0
4.00
0-0-1
0.90
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-0
1.30
Folgore Falciano
0-0-1
2.34
1-0-0
2.39
2-0-0
4.77
1-0-0
2.03
1-0-1
4.42
 —
1-0-0
1.08
0-2-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.97
0-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
3.67
1-1-0
5.14
1-0-0
1.76
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-0
2.25
Juvenes Dogana
1-1-0
4.43
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-0
2.35
0-1-1
3.77
1-0-0
2.08
0-0-1
1.71
 —
0-0-1
1.72
1-0-0
1.86
1-1-0
4.50
0-1-0
1.80
1-0-0
2.47
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-0
2.32
2-0-0
4.37
La Fiorita
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
2.34
2-0-0
4.44
0-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
4.43
0-2-0
2.44
1-0-0
1.07
 —
0-1-1
4.08
1-0-0
2.20
1-0-1
3.66
2-0-0
5.04
0-0-1
1.88
1-1-0
4.02
1-0-0
2.03
Libertas
0-1-0
2.12
1-0-0
2.09
0-1-1
3.74
1-0-0
1.92
0-2-0
3.64
0-1-1
1.62
0-0-1
0.93
1-1-0
1.51
 —
1-0-0
2.00
0-2-0
2.19
2-0-0
4.56
0-0-1
1.16
2-0-0
3.88
0-0-1
1.89
Murata
0-0-2
2.74
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-1
1.66
1-0-1
1.36
0-1-0
0.92
0-1-0
0.42
0-1-1
1.11
0-0-1
0.60
0-0-1
0.80
 —
0-0-1
0.61
0-1-0
1.77
0-0-2
1.22
1-0-0
0.96
1-1-0
1.81
Pennarossa
1-0-0
2.06
1-0-0
2.14
0-0-2
4.22
0-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
3.71
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-0
0.99
1-0-1
1.93
0-2-0
3.40
1-0-0
2.19
 —
2-0-0
4.84
0-0-1
1.63
1-0-1
3.59
0-0-1
2.02
San Giovanni
0-0-1
0.54
0-1-0
0.72
0-0-2
1.47
1-0-0
0.71
0-0-2
1.60
0-1-1
0.53
0-0-1
0.35
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
1.05
0-1-0
1.03
0-0-2
0.80
 —
0-0-1
0.36
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-1
0.60
Tre Fiori
1-0-1
3.96
1-1-0
4.62
0-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
3.72
1-0-0
1.89
0-0-1
1.04
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-0
0.91
1-0-0
1.64
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-0
1.17
1-0-0
2.46
 —
0-0-1
2.06
1-1-0
3.98
Tre Penne
0-0-1
1.78
1-0-0
1.63
0-1-1
3.69
0-1-0
1.76
0-0-2
2.85
0-0-2
1.22
0-0-1
0.48
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.00
1-0-1
4.10
1-0-0
0.74
 —
1-0-0
1.00
Virtus
2-0-0
2.37
2-0-0
3.64
0-1-0
1.55
1-1-0
2.11
0-0-1
1.50
0-0-1
0.56
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-1
0.77
1-0-0
0.91
0-1-1
3.79
1-0-0
0.78
1-0-0
2.21
0-1-1
1.61
0-0-1
1.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +13.1
Allowed 0.86 -8.5
Differential 0.96 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.49%9.74%4.87%2.60%1.62%0.65%25.97%
19.74%12.34%7.47%6.49%1.62%0.65%38.31%
24.87%7.47%1.30%2.27%0.65%0.97%17.53%
32.60%6.49%2.27%0.65%——12.01%
41.62%1.62%0.65%———3.90%
5+0.65%0.65%0.97%———2.27%
Total25.97%38.31%17.53%12.01%3.90%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.85
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—5.00%5.00%——15.00%
115.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%—50.00%
210.00%5.00%—10.00%——25.00%
35.00%—————5.00%
4———————
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total35.00%25.00%10.00%25.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.35 1.92
CV 0.82 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%15.00%5.00%20.00%5.00%—50.00%
1—20.00%—5.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
2———10.00%—5.00%15.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.00%35.00%5.00%35.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.65 2.40 -1.75
SD 0.75 1.47 1.41
CV 1.15 0.61 —
Max 2 5 +0
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%9.52%9.52%———23.81%
123.81%9.52%4.76%4.76%——42.86%
2—14.29%———4.76%19.05%
34.76%—4.76%———9.52%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+———————
Total38.10%33.33%19.05%4.76%—4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.10 +0.19
SD 1.10 1.26 1.69
CV 0.86 1.15 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%———30.00%
110.00%15.00%10.00%———35.00%
25.00%10.00%————15.00%
3—10.00%5.00%———15.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%45.00%30.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.05 +0.25
SD 1.22 0.76 1.45
CV 0.94 0.72 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%9.52%4.76%———19.05%
114.29%19.05%14.29%4.76%——52.38%
29.52%14.29%————23.81%
3——4.76%———4.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%23.81%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.05 +0.10
SD 0.79 0.86 1.18
CV 0.69 0.83 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
14.76%9.52%————14.29%
214.29%9.52%4.76%4.76%——33.33%
3—19.05%————19.05%
44.76%4.76%4.76%———14.29%
5+———————
Total33.33%47.62%14.29%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.90 +1.05
SD 1.32 0.83 1.47
CV 0.68 0.92 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%5.00%———20.00%
115.00%10.00%5.00%———30.00%
25.00%10.00%5.00%———20.00%
315.00%5.00%5.00%———25.00%
4———————
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total45.00%35.00%20.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.75 +1.00
SD 1.48 0.79 1.84
CV 0.85 1.05 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%4.76%———14.29%
114.29%14.29%9.52%———38.10%
24.76%9.52%4.76%———19.05%
3—9.52%4.76%4.76%——19.05%
4—4.76%————4.76%
5+——4.76%———4.76%
Total19.05%47.62%28.57%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.76 1.19 +0.57
SD 1.34 0.81 1.36
CV 0.76 0.68 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.05%9.52%9.52%———38.10%
119.05%19.05%——4.76%—42.86%
2———————
39.52%—————9.52%
44.76%—4.76%———9.52%
5+———————
Total52.38%28.57%14.29%—4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 0.76 +0.33
SD 1.30 1.04 1.71
CV 1.19 1.37 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%20.00%—5.00%——30.00%
1—15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%40.00%
25.00%—5.00%———10.00%
3—15.00%————15.00%
4———————
5+——5.00%———5.00%
Total10.00%50.00%15.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.70 -0.40
SD 1.34 1.30 1.90
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%————9.52%
14.76%14.29%23.81%4.76%——47.62%
29.52%9.52%—4.76%——23.81%
3—14.29%————14.29%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+———————
Total19.05%47.62%23.81%9.52%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.24 +0.33
SD 1.03 0.89 1.56
CV 0.65 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%4.76%4.76%—14.29%4.76%33.33%
1—9.52%9.52%23.81%4.76%—47.62%
2—4.76%—4.76%4.76%—14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+——4.76%———4.76%
Total4.76%19.05%19.05%28.57%23.81%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.67 -1.67
SD 1.14 1.43 1.96
CV 1.14 0.53 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%15.00%————25.00%
115.00%—10.00%———25.00%
210.00%5.00%——5.00%—20.00%
3—15.00%————15.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%————10.00%
Total40.00%45.00%10.00%—5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 0.85 +0.95
SD 1.61 0.99 1.85
CV 0.89 1.16 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%4.76%4.76%4.76%—28.57%
14.76%9.52%4.76%23.81%——42.86%
2—9.52%———4.76%14.29%
3—9.52%—4.76%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.76%42.86%9.52%33.33%4.76%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.05 -0.90
SD 1.01 1.28 1.67
CV 0.89 0.63 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%10.00%—5.00%—5.00%35.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%——30.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
35.00%—10.00%———15.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.40 -0.05
SD 1.39 1.35 2.11
CV 1.03 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Folgore Falciano 1156 44 43.88 +0.12 53.0% 29 34 41 43 47 51 56
Juvenes Dogana 1063 40 40.81 -0.81 45.0% 30 33 38 41 44 49 51
La Fiorita 1048 38 41.50 -3.50 29.0% 28 33 38 42 44 51 59
Tre Fiori 960 38 36.20 +1.80 60.0% 24 26 32 37 40 44 51
Faetano 945 32 26.73 +5.27 95.0% 17 19 24 27 29 32 41
Pennarossa 920 30 34.66 -4.66 21.0% 22 25 31 35 38 43 47
Libertas 901 32 32.08 -0.08 53.0% 19 23 28 32 35 42 49
Cailungo 874 28 23.83 +4.17 81.0% 10 14 20 24 27 33 40
Domagnano 850 36 21.90 +14.10 100.0% 10 13 18 22 26 30 34
Fiorentino 839 32 26.66 +5.34 82.0% 17 17 23 27 30 35 41
Virtus 728 28 25.77 +2.23 70.0% 16 17 22 26 29 34 36
Murata 705 20 18.67 +1.33 63.0% 8 11 15 19 22 27 30
Tre Penne 573 18 27.10 -9.10 4.0% 17 19 23 27 31 36 42
San Giovanni 562 9 11.73 -2.73 38.0% 4 6 9 12 14 18 23
Cosmos 498 5 19.48 -14.48 0.0% 6 11 16 20 22 31 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.60%
Clear Edge
40.91%20.78%38.31%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.03 Elo pts.
250 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Folgore Falciano, 2nd of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Runaway
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.16 * Some Luck: 4.16 to 6.24 * Lucky: 6.24 to 8.32 * Wild Swing: 8.32 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.72 * Way Off: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.41 points
Lucky
05.2013
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.704
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
100.00%
Domagnano
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
0.00%
Cosmos
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 186.64
1.81
Moderate Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
82%
Clear Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Lopsided
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.51
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Strong Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.20
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.63
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.120
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Tre Fiori 1
Domagnano 0
La Fiorita 3
Faetano 1

Second Round

Faetano 2
Domagnano 0
La Fiorita 1
Tre Fiori 0

Third Round

Folgore Falciano 2
Juvenes Dogana 1
Tre Fiori 5
Faetano 3

Quarterfinals

Folgore Falciano 2
La Fiorita 1
Juvenes Dogana 3
Tre Fiori 0

Semifinals

Juvenes Dogana 4
La Fiorita 2

Sim: 11.0%

Finals

Folgore Falciano 3
Juvenes Dogana 1

Sim: 5.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Folgore Falciano58.00%35.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%———
Juvenes Dogana69.00%27.00%3.00%1.00%————
Tre Fiori29.00%53.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%———
La Fiorita34.00%43.00%18.00%5.00%————
Domagnano———8.00%15.00%22.00%48.00%7.00%
Libertas2.00%7.00%26.00%32.00%19.00%11.00%3.00%—
Faetano—3.00%37.00%34.00%16.00%9.00%1.00%—
Fiorentino2.00%—8.00%18.00%20.00%31.00%20.00%1.00%
Pennarossa3.00%13.00%38.00%22.00%16.00%7.00%1.00%—
Cailungo—8.00%15.00%15.00%27.00%24.00%11.00%—
Virtus2.00%6.00%25.00%28.00%19.00%14.00%6.00%—
Murata——3.00%6.00%21.00%26.00%44.00%—
Tre Penne1.00%2.00%6.00%13.00%29.00%28.00%21.00%—
San Giovanni—————1.00%7.00%92.00%
Cosmos—3.00%5.00%11.00%16.00%27.00%38.00%—

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Cailungo 77.00%
Cosmos 92.00%
Domagnano —
Faetano —
Fiorentino 90.00%
Folgore Falciano —
Juvenes Dogana —
La Fiorita —
Libertas 65.00%
Murata 97.00%
Pennarossa 46.00%
San Giovanni 100%
Tre Fiori —
Tre Penne 91.00%
Virtus 67.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosFaetanoFiorentinoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaLibertasMurataPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo11.1%9.00%22.2%9.00%0.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%
Cosmos0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Faetano45.5%11.00%56.2%16.00%60.0%5.00%54.5%11.00%
Fiorentino50.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano88.9%9.00%54.5%11.00%100.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%73.3%15.00%85.7%7.00%
Juvenes Dogana50.0%2.00%0.0%5.00%25.0%4.00%83.3%6.00%33.3%9.00%100.0%4.00%
La Fiorita77.8%9.00%100.0%2.00%43.8%16.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%2.00%72.7%11.00%90.0%10.00%
Libertas100.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%16.7%6.00%100.0%1.00%37.5%16.00%100.0%2.00%
Murata0.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa50.0%4.00%45.5%11.00%66.7%9.00%50.0%18.00%85.7%7.00%
Tre Fiori50.0%4.00%26.7%15.00%27.3%11.00%62.5%16.00%50.0%18.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne0.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Virtus0.0%1.00%14.3%7.00%10.0%10.00%0.0%2.00%14.3%7.00%100.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoFaetanoFiorentinoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaLibertasPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%
Faetano60.0%5.00%30.8%13.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%
Fiorentino100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%65.4%26.00%41.2%17.00%83.3%6.00%62.5%8.00%56.2%16.00%0.0%1.00%
Juvenes Dogana50.0%2.00%69.2%13.00%100.0%1.00%34.6%26.00%50.0%22.00%55.6%9.00%28.6%7.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
La Fiorita50.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%58.8%17.00%50.0%22.00%100.0%1.00%69.2%13.00%70.0%20.00%100.0%1.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%16.7%6.00%44.4%9.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%
Pennarossa0.0%1.00%37.5%8.00%71.4%7.00%30.8%13.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%8.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%43.8%16.00%0.0%1.00%30.0%20.00%75.0%4.00%75.0%8.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne0.0%1.00%
Virtus100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoFaetanoFiorentinoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaLibertasPennarossaTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo0.0%1.00%
Faetano100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%80.0%5.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fiorentino0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%10.00%33.3%18.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%8.00%60.0%5.00%
Juvenes Dogana20.0%5.00%50.0%10.00%38.5%13.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%10.00%
La Fiorita100.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%18.00%61.5%13.00%50.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%80.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa25.0%8.00%25.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%50.0%10.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%
Tre Penne
Virtus100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
Folgore Falciano 100% 95.03% 30.50%
La Fiorita 83.56% 41.30% 22.61%
Juvenes Dogana 100% 56.91% 17.24%
Tre Fiori 84.44% 35.38% 16.41%
Faetano 47.11% 17.80% 7.79%
Domagnano 46.23% 14.91% 5.46%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaTre Fiori
Domagnano35.4%130.67%
Faetano36.0%130.67%
Folgore Falciano59.2%261.34%
Juvenes Dogana40.8%261.34%
La Fiorita63.9%130.67%
Tre Fiori64.6%130.67%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaTre Fiori
Domagnano29.5%27.27%36.3%18.96%
Faetano34.0%27.35%43.1%19.76%
Folgore Falciano70.5%27.27%66.0%27.35%54.3%49.12%60.9%51.00%
Juvenes Dogana63.7%18.96%56.9%19.76%45.2%34.44%53.8%33.44%
La Fiorita45.7%49.12%54.8%34.44%
Tre Fiori39.1%51.00%46.2%33.44%
Loser →
↓ Winner
DomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLa FioritaTre Fiori
Domagnano45.8%2.03%31.6%4.76%42.6%2.91%34.3%5.21%
Faetano54.2%2.03%36.3%6.52%50.8%4.12%43.5%5.14%
Folgore Falciano68.4%4.76%63.7%6.52%60.3%14.78%51.9%14.79%55.8%11.67%
Juvenes Dogana57.4%2.91%49.2%4.12%39.7%14.78%44.4%9.50%50.9%6.78%
La Fiorita65.7%5.21%48.1%14.79%55.6%9.50%57.5%11.80%
Tre Fiori56.5%5.14%44.2%11.67%49.1%6.78%42.5%11.80%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-09-12 Folgore Falciano L 1-332.9 631 1003 7.39% 18.57% 74.04%-1.45 -8.7 0
2014-09-12 @ Domagnano W 3-132.9 1003 631 74.04% 18.57% 7.39%+1.45 +8.7 3
2014-09-13 Faetano D 0-050.2 943 895 47.53% 20.64% 31.83%+0.23 -2.3 1
2014-09-13 @ Juvenes Dogana D 0-050.2 895 943 31.83% 20.64% 47.53%-0.23 +2.3 1
2014-09-13 San Giovanni W 2-143.5 722 653 50.25% 20.59% 29.17%+0.31 +17.8 3
2014-09-13 @ Fiorentino L 1-243.5 653 722 29.17% 20.59% 50.25%-0.31 -17.8 0
2014-09-13 Tre Fiori L 1-335.7 677 902 15.50% 19.91% 64.59%-0.86 -17.7 0
2014-09-13 @ Murata W 3-135.7 902 677 64.59% 19.91% 15.50%+0.86 +17.7 3
2014-09-14 Libertas D 1-154.9 964 893 50.56% 20.58% 28.86%+0.32 -2.8 1
2014-09-14 @ Pennarossa D 1-154.9 893 964 28.86% 20.58% 50.56%-0.32 +2.8 1
2014-09-14 Tre Penne D 3-364.9 1108 882 66.12% 19.76% 14.12%+0.94 -4.6 1
2014-09-14 @ La Fiorita D 3-364.9 882 1108 14.12% 19.76% 66.12%-0.94 +4.6 1
2014-09-14 Virtus L 1-442.3 746 706 46.37% 20.65% 32.98%+0.19 -63.6 0
2014-09-14 @ Cailungo W 4-142.3 706 746 32.98% 20.65% 46.37%-0.19 +63.6 3
2014-09-19 Pennarossa W 2-149.4 887 962 30.72% 20.62% 48.66%-0.26 +27.1 4
2014-09-19 @ Tre Penne L 1-249.4 962 887 48.66% 20.62% 30.72%+0.26 -27.1 1
2014-09-20 Folgore Falciano L 1-436.1 896 1012 25.75% 20.49% 53.75%-0.43 -39.2 1
2014-09-20 @ Libertas W 4-136.1 1012 896 53.75% 20.49% 25.75%+0.43 +39.3 6
2014-09-20 La Fiorita L 1-428.7 635 1103 4.48% 17.42% 78.10%-1.84 -7.4 0
2014-09-20 @ San Giovanni W 4-128.7 1103 635 78.10% 17.42% 4.48%+1.84 +7.4 4
2014-09-20 Tre Fiori D 0-050.3 770 920 22.13% 20.35% 57.52%-0.56 +5.4 4
2014-09-20 @ Virtus D 0-050.3 920 770 57.52% 20.35% 22.13%+0.56 -5.4 4
2014-09-21 Domagnano L 1-251.5 740 623 55.95% 20.42% 23.63%+0.50 -30.8 3
2014-09-21 @ Fiorentino W 2-151.5 623 740 23.63% 20.42% 55.95%-0.50 +30.8 3
2014-09-21 Juvenes Dogana L 0-333.6 896 940 34.68% 20.67% 44.65%-0.14 -59.6 0
2014-09-21 @ Cosmos W 3-033.6 940 896 44.65% 20.67% 34.68%+0.14 +59.6 4
2014-09-21 Murata L 0-245.2 897 660 67.01% 19.67% 13.32%+0.99 -73.5 1
2014-09-21 @ Faetano W 2-045.2 660 897 13.32% 19.67% 67.01%-0.99 +73.5 3
2014-09-26 Cosmos W 5-246.6 733 836 27.24% 20.54% 52.22%-0.38 +61.2 6
2014-09-26 @ Murata L 2-546.6 836 733 52.22% 20.54% 27.24%+0.38 -61.2 0
2014-09-27 Fiorentino L 1-256.9 1111 709 76.23% 18.01% 5.76%+1.65 -41.8 4
2014-09-27 @ La Fiorita W 2-156.9 709 1111 5.76% 18.01% 76.23%-1.65 +41.8 6
2014-09-27 San Giovanni W 4-239.1 857 628 66.36% 19.74% 13.90%+0.95 +14.4 4
2014-09-27 @ Libertas L 2-439.1 628 857 13.90% 19.74% 66.36%-0.95 -14.4 0
2014-09-27 Tre Penne D 1-155.2 653 914 12.98% 19.63% 67.39%-1.01 +7.8 4
2014-09-27 @ Domagnano D 1-155.2 914 653 67.39% 19.63% 12.98%+1.01 -7.8 5
2014-09-28 Cailungo W 3-025.3 1000 682 72.19% 18.94% 8.87%+1.31 +17.5 7
2014-09-28 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-325.3 682 1000 8.87% 18.94% 72.19%-1.31 -17.5 0
2014-09-28 Faetano W 2-033.3 914 823 52.94% 20.52% 26.54%+0.40 +32.9 7
2014-09-28 @ Tre Fiori L 0-233.3 823 914 26.54% 20.52% 52.94%-0.40 -32.9 1
2014-09-28 Pennarossa W 3-138.3 1051 934 55.88% 20.42% 23.70%+0.50 +25.9 9
2014-09-28 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-338.3 934 1051 23.70% 20.42% 55.88%-0.50 -25.9 1
2014-10-03 La Fiorita L 0-130.2 661 1069 6.13% 18.16% 75.72%-1.60 -4.4 4
2014-10-03 @ Domagnano W 1-030.2 1069 661 75.72% 18.16% 6.13%+1.60 +4.4 7
2014-10-04 Libertas D 0-050.3 751 871 25.28% 20.48% 54.25%-0.44 +4.3 7
2014-10-04 @ Fiorentino D 0-050.3 871 751 54.25% 20.48% 25.28%+0.44 -4.3 5
2014-10-04 Pennarossa L 1-334.2 613 909 10.91% 19.33% 69.76%-1.15 -12.8 0
2014-10-04 @ San Giovanni W 3-134.2 909 613 69.76% 19.33% 10.91%+1.15 +12.8 4
2014-10-04 Virtus L 1-247.7 790 775 43.07% 20.68% 36.25%+0.10 -24.4 1
2014-10-04 @ Faetano W 2-147.7 775 790 36.25% 20.68% 43.07%-0.10 +24.4 7
2014-10-05 Cosmos D 1-154.9 664 775 26.37% 20.51% 53.12%-0.41 +3.6 1
2014-10-05 @ Cailungo D 1-154.9 775 664 53.12% 20.51% 26.37%+0.41 -3.6 1
2014-10-05 Folgore Falciano L 0-135.0 906 1077 20.09% 20.25% 59.67%-0.65 -13.7 5
2014-10-05 @ Tre Penne W 1-035.0 1077 906 59.67% 20.25% 20.09%+0.65 +13.7 12
2014-10-05 Murata D 2-261.0 1017 794 65.92% 19.78% 14.30%+0.93 -5.4 8
2014-10-05 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-261.0 794 1017 14.30% 19.78% 65.92%-0.93 +5.4 7
2014-10-17 La Fiorita W 1-047.9 867 1074 16.88% 20.03% 63.09%-0.79 +36.7 8
2014-10-17 @ Libertas L 0-147.9 1074 867 63.09% 20.03% 16.88%+0.79 -36.7 7
2014-10-18 Cailungo L 1-543.9 800 668 57.55% 20.35% 22.10%+0.56 -100.0 7
2014-10-18 @ Murata W 5-143.9 668 800 22.10% 20.35% 57.55%-0.56 +100.0 4
2014-10-18 Domagnano L 0-149.4 921 657 68.93% 19.44% 11.62%+1.10 -40.1 4
2014-10-18 @ Pennarossa W 1-049.4 657 921 11.62% 19.44% 68.93%-1.10 +40.1 7
2014-10-18 Virtus L 2-351.0 771 800 36.90% 20.69% 42.42%-0.08 -20.4 1
2014-10-18 @ Cosmos W 3-251.0 800 771 42.42% 20.69% 36.90%+0.08 +20.4 10
2014-10-19 Fiorentino L 0-242.8 893 755 58.15% 20.32% 21.53%+0.59 -63.9 5
2014-10-19 @ Tre Penne W 2-042.8 755 893 21.53% 20.32% 58.15%-0.59 +63.9 10
2014-10-19 Juvenes Dogana L 0-138.7 947 1012 31.99% 20.64% 47.37%-0.22 -20.4 7
2014-10-19 @ Tre Fiori W 1-038.7 1012 947 47.37% 20.64% 31.99%+0.22 +20.4 11
2014-10-19 San Giovanni D 0-051.3 1090 601 79.45% 16.91% 3.64%+2.00 -12.5 13
2014-10-19 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-051.3 601 1090 3.64% 16.91% 79.45%-2.00 +12.5 1
2014-10-25 Cailungo W 3-137.0 927 768 60.30% 20.21% 19.49%+0.67 +21.8 10
2014-10-25 @ Tre Fiori L 1-337.0 768 927 19.49% 20.21% 60.30%-0.67 -21.8 4
2014-10-25 Cosmos D 1-154.8 766 751 43.08% 20.68% 36.24%+0.10 -0.9 2
2014-10-25 @ Faetano D 1-154.8 751 766 36.24% 20.68% 43.08%-0.10 +0.9 2
2014-10-25 Folgore Falciano W 3-259.8 819 1078 13.08% 19.64% 67.28%-1.00 +35.0 13
2014-10-25 @ Fiorentino L 2-359.8 1078 819 67.28% 19.64% 13.08%+1.00 -35.0 13
2014-10-25 Tre Penne W 1-037.7 903 829 50.94% 20.57% 28.49%+0.33 +18.5 11
2014-10-25 @ Libertas L 0-137.7 829 903 28.49% 20.57% 50.94%-0.33 -18.5 5
2014-10-26 Domagnano L 1-243.6 613 697 29.57% 20.60% 49.84%-0.30 -18.0 1
2014-10-26 @ San Giovanni W 2-143.6 697 613 49.84% 20.60% 29.57%+0.30 +18.0 10
2014-10-26 Murata D 0-050.3 820 700 56.32% 20.40% 23.28%+0.52 -5.0 11
2014-10-26 @ Virtus D 0-050.3 700 820 23.28% 20.40% 56.32%-0.52 +5.0 8
2014-10-26 Pennarossa L 0-243.3 1037 881 59.98% 20.23% 19.79%+0.66 -65.8 7
2014-10-26 @ La Fiorita W 2-043.3 881 1037 19.79% 20.23% 59.98%-0.66 +65.8 7
2014-10-31 Tre Penne L 1-336.0 595 810 16.24% 19.97% 63.79%-0.83 -18.5 1
2014-10-31 @ San Giovanni W 3-136.0 810 595 63.79% 19.97% 16.24%+0.83 +18.5 8
2014-11-01 Fiorentino W 2-142.6 947 854 53.20% 20.51% 26.29%+0.41 +16.3 10
2014-11-01 @ Pennarossa L 1-242.6 854 947 26.29% 20.51% 53.20%-0.41 -16.3 13
2014-11-01 Juvenes Dogana L 0-327.8 815 1032 16.09% 19.96% 63.96%-0.83 -30.8 11
2014-11-01 @ Virtus W 3-027.8 1032 815 63.96% 19.96% 16.09%+0.83 +30.8 14
2014-11-01 La Fiorita D 2-260.8 1043 971 50.62% 20.58% 28.80%+0.32 -2.1 14
2014-11-01 @ Folgore Falciano D 2-260.8 971 1043 28.80% 20.58% 50.62%-0.32 +2.1 8
2014-11-02 Faetano L 1-246.3 746 765 38.22% 20.69% 41.09%-0.04 -22.2 4
2014-11-02 @ Cailungo W 2-146.3 765 746 41.09% 20.69% 38.22%+0.04 +22.2 5
2014-11-02 Libertas D 0-050.4 715 922 16.90% 20.03% 63.08%-0.79 +7.2 11
2014-11-02 @ Domagnano D 0-050.4 922 715 63.08% 20.03% 16.90%+0.79 -7.2 12
2014-11-02 Tre Fiori D 0-050.4 752 949 17.73% 20.09% 62.18%-0.75 +6.9 3
2014-11-02 @ Cosmos D 0-050.4 949 752 62.18% 20.09% 17.73%+0.75 -6.9 11
2014-11-07 Folgore Falciano L 2-443.5 942 1041 27.70% 20.55% 51.75%-0.36 -26.4 11
2014-11-07 @ Tre Fiori W 4-243.5 1041 942 51.75% 20.55% 27.70%+0.36 +26.4 17
2014-11-08 Fiorentino D 1-154.9 705 838 23.88% 20.43% 55.69%-0.50 +4.3 9
2014-11-08 @ Murata D 1-154.9 838 705 55.69% 20.43% 23.88%+0.50 -4.3 14
2014-11-08 Juvenes Dogana W 2-150.0 973 1063 28.81% 20.58% 50.61%-0.32 +28.1 11
2014-11-08 @ La Fiorita L 1-250.0 1063 973 50.61% 20.58% 28.81%+0.32 -28.1 14
2014-11-08 Pennarossa W 2-152.8 785 963 19.31% 20.20% 60.49%-0.68 +33.2 14
2014-11-08 @ Virtus L 1-252.8 963 785 60.49% 20.20% 19.31%+0.68 -33.2 10
2014-11-09 Faetano W 1-035.8 915 787 57.05% 20.37% 22.58%+0.55 +15.2 15
2014-11-09 @ Libertas L 0-135.8 787 915 22.58% 20.37% 57.05%-0.55 -15.2 5
2014-11-09 San Giovanni D 1-155.0 759 577 62.48% 20.07% 17.45%+0.77 -6.3 4
2014-11-09 @ Cosmos D 1-155.0 577 759 17.45% 20.07% 62.48%-0.77 +6.3 2
2014-11-09 Tre Penne W 2-150.5 724 829 27.04% 20.53% 52.43%-0.38 +29.0 7
2014-11-09 @ Cailungo L 1-250.5 829 724 52.43% 20.53% 27.04%+0.38 -29.0 8
2014-11-22 Cailungo W 2-030.6 930 753 62.04% 20.10% 17.86%+0.75 +23.3 13
2014-11-22 @ Pennarossa L 0-230.6 753 930 17.86% 20.10% 62.04%-0.75 -23.3 7
2014-11-22 Cosmos W 1-038.7 800 752 47.45% 20.64% 31.91%+0.23 +20.3 11
2014-11-22 @ Tre Penne L 0-138.7 752 800 31.91% 20.64% 47.45%-0.23 -20.3 4
2014-11-22 San Giovanni L 1-253.5 772 583 63.12% 20.02% 16.85%+0.79 -34.6 5
2014-11-22 @ Faetano W 2-153.5 583 772 16.85% 20.02% 63.12%-0.79 +34.6 5
2014-11-22 Tre Fiori W 1-047.5 722 915 18.04% 20.11% 61.85%-0.74 +36.0 14
2014-11-22 @ Domagnano L 0-147.5 915 722 61.85% 20.11% 18.04%+0.74 -36.0 11
2014-11-23 Folgore Falciano D 1-155.4 709 1067 7.92% 18.71% 73.37%-1.40 +9.5 10
2014-11-23 @ Murata D 1-155.4 1067 709 73.37% 18.71% 7.92%+1.40 -9.5 18
2014-11-23 Juvenes Dogana L 1-239.8 833 1035 17.32% 20.06% 62.62%-0.77 -11.3 14
2014-11-23 @ Fiorentino W 2-139.8 1035 833 62.62% 20.06% 17.32%+0.77 +11.3 17
2014-11-23 La Fiorita L 0-134.7 818 1001 18.89% 20.17% 60.94%-0.70 -13.0 14
2014-11-23 @ Virtus W 1-034.7 1001 818 60.94% 20.17% 18.89%+0.70 +13.0 14
2014-11-29 Cailungo D 0-050.4 930 730 64.05% 19.95% 16.00%+0.84 -7.5 16
2014-11-29 @ Libertas D 0-050.4 730 930 16.00% 19.95% 64.05%-0.84 +7.5 8
2014-11-29 Faetano D 1-154.9 820 738 51.92% 20.55% 27.53%+0.37 -3.2 12
2014-11-29 @ Tre Penne D 1-154.9 738 820 27.53% 20.55% 51.92%-0.37 +3.2 6
2014-11-29 Fiorentino L 0-137.8 732 822 28.81% 20.58% 50.61%-0.32 -18.7 4
2014-11-29 @ Cosmos W 1-037.8 822 732 50.61% 20.58% 28.81%+0.32 +18.7 17
2014-11-29 Murata D 1-154.9 618 719 27.46% 20.55% 51.99%-0.37 +3.2 6
2014-11-29 @ San Giovanni D 1-154.9 719 618 51.99% 20.55% 27.46%+0.37 -3.2 11
2014-11-30 La Fiorita W 2-151.5 879 1014 23.66% 20.42% 55.92%-0.50 +30.8 14
2014-11-30 @ Tre Fiori L 1-251.5 1014 879 55.92% 20.42% 23.66%+0.50 -30.8 14
2014-11-30 Pennarossa D 1-154.9 1046 954 53.17% 20.51% 26.32%+0.41 -3.6 18
2014-11-30 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-154.9 954 1046 26.32% 20.51% 53.17%-0.41 +3.6 14
2014-11-30 Virtus D 1-154.8 758 805 34.39% 20.67% 44.94%-0.15 +1.4 15
2014-11-30 @ Domagnano D 1-154.8 805 758 44.94% 20.67% 34.39%+0.15 -1.3 15
2014-12-06 Domagnano W 2-037.7 741 759 38.28% 20.69% 41.03%-0.04 +46.9 9
2014-12-06 @ Faetano L 0-237.7 759 741 41.03% 20.69% 38.28%+0.04 -46.9 15
2014-12-06 Juvenes Dogana L 0-625.3 621 1043 5.69% 17.99% 76.32%-1.65 -21.5 6
2014-12-06 @ San Giovanni W 6-025.3 1043 621 76.32% 17.99% 5.69%+1.65 +21.5 21
2014-12-06 Tre Fiori L 0-143.3 957 910 47.41% 20.64% 31.96%+0.22 -28.1 14
2014-12-06 @ Pennarossa W 1-043.3 910 957 31.96% 20.64% 47.41%-0.22 +28.1 17
2014-12-06 Virtus L 0-145.9 922 803 56.14% 20.41% 23.45%+0.51 -32.8 16
2014-12-06 @ Libertas W 1-045.9 803 922 23.45% 20.41% 56.14%-0.51 +32.8 18
2014-12-07 Cosmos W 2-027.2 1058 713 73.58% 18.67% 7.75%+1.41 +10.6 21
2014-12-07 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-227.2 713 1058 7.75% 18.67% 73.58%-1.41 -10.6 4
2014-12-07 Fiorentino D 1-154.9 737 841 27.18% 20.54% 52.28%-0.38 +3.3 9
2014-12-07 @ Cailungo D 1-154.9 841 737 52.28% 20.54% 27.18%+0.38 -3.3 18
2014-12-07 Murata L 1-347.5 817 715 54.18% 20.48% 25.34%+0.44 -51.7 12
2014-12-07 @ Tre Penne W 3-147.5 715 817 25.34% 20.48% 54.18%-0.44 +51.7 14
2014-12-13 Domagnano L 0-143.6 767 713 48.41% 20.62% 30.97%+0.25 -28.6 14
2014-12-13 @ Murata W 1-043.6 713 767 30.97% 20.62% 48.41%-0.25 +28.6 18
2014-12-13 Folgore Falciano W 2-046.4 741 1068 9.25% 19.02% 71.73%-1.28 +78.8 12
2014-12-13 @ Cailungo L 0-246.4 1068 741 71.73% 19.02% 9.25%+1.28 -78.8 21
2014-12-13 Pennarossa L 0-427.2 703 929 15.39% 19.89% 64.72%-0.87 -38.6 4
2014-12-13 @ Cosmos W 4-027.2 929 703 64.72% 19.89% 15.39%+0.87 +38.6 17
2014-12-13 Tre Penne W 3-133.8 1064 765 71.12% 19.13% 9.76%+1.23 +11.5 24
2014-12-13 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-333.8 765 1064 9.76% 19.13% 71.12%-1.23 -11.5 12
2014-12-14 Faetano L 0-148.0 983 788 63.68% 19.98% 16.34%+0.82 -37.0 14
2014-12-14 @ La Fiorita W 1-048.0 788 983 16.34% 19.98% 63.68%-0.82 +37.0 12
2014-12-14 Libertas W 2-034.9 938 889 47.64% 20.63% 31.73%+0.23 +38.1 20
2014-12-14 @ Tre Fiori L 0-234.9 889 938 31.73% 20.63% 47.64%-0.23 -38.1 16
2014-12-14 San Giovanni W 4-026.6 836 599 66.98% 19.68% 13.35%+0.98 +33.8 21
2014-12-14 @ Virtus L 0-426.6 599 836 13.35% 19.68% 66.98%-0.98 -33.9 6
2015-01-31 Cailungo W 3-246.6 946 819 57.05% 20.37% 22.58%+0.55 +13.6 17
2015-01-31 @ La Fiorita L 2-346.6 819 946 22.58% 20.37% 57.05%-0.55 -13.6 12
2015-01-31 Cosmos W 3-028.1 851 664 62.92% 20.04% 17.04%+0.79 +32.4 19
2015-01-31 @ Libertas L 0-328.1 664 851 17.04% 20.04% 62.92%-0.79 -32.4 4
2015-01-31 Faetano W 2-031.0 990 825 60.87% 20.18% 18.96%+0.70 +24.6 24
2015-01-31 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-231.0 825 990 18.96% 20.18% 60.87%-0.70 -24.6 12
2015-01-31 Tre Fiori L 1-332.3 565 976 6.03% 18.12% 75.85%-1.61 -7.1 6
2015-01-31 @ San Giovanni W 3-132.3 976 565 75.85% 18.12% 6.03%+1.61 +7.1 23
2015-02-01 Juvenes Dogana L 0-131.3 741 1076 8.93% 18.95% 72.12%-1.30 -6.5 18
2015-02-01 @ Domagnano W 1-031.3 1076 741 72.12% 18.95% 8.93%+1.30 +6.5 27
2015-02-01 Murata W 2-138.7 968 739 66.39% 19.74% 13.88%+0.95 +9.2 20
2015-02-01 @ Pennarossa L 1-238.7 739 968 13.88% 19.74% 66.39%-0.95 -9.2 14
2015-02-01 Virtus W 1-042.0 837 870 36.32% 20.68% 43.00%-0.09 +25.9 21
2015-02-01 @ Fiorentino L 0-142.0 870 837 43.00% 20.68% 36.32%+0.09 -25.9 21
2015-02-07 Fiorentino W 1-036.0 983 863 56.29% 20.40% 23.30%+0.52 +15.6 26
2015-02-07 @ Tre Fiori L 0-136.0 863 983 23.30% 20.40% 56.29%-0.52 -15.6 21
2015-02-07 Folgore Falciano L 0-240.5 1082 1014 50.15% 20.59% 29.26%+0.31 -55.7 27
2015-02-07 @ Juvenes Dogana W 2-040.5 1014 1082 29.26% 20.59% 50.15%-0.31 +55.6 27
2015-02-07 Murata W 1-035.0 884 729 59.87% 20.23% 19.90%+0.65 +13.6 22
2015-02-07 @ Libertas L 0-135.0 729 884 19.90% 20.23% 59.87%-0.65 -13.6 14
2015-02-07 Tre Penne L 1-347.1 844 754 52.88% 20.52% 26.60%+0.40 -50.6 21
2015-02-07 @ Virtus W 3-147.1 754 844 26.60% 20.52% 52.88%-0.40 +50.6 15
2015-02-08 Domagnano W 2-034.1 806 735 50.50% 20.58% 28.92%+0.32 +35.3 15
2015-02-08 @ Cailungo L 0-234.1 735 806 28.92% 20.58% 50.50%-0.32 -35.3 18
2015-02-08 Faetano L 2-358.4 977 800 61.98% 20.10% 17.91%+0.74 -32.2 20
2015-02-08 @ Pennarossa W 3-258.4 800 977 17.91% 20.10% 61.98%-0.74 +32.2 15
2015-02-08 La Fiorita D 1-155.3 632 960 9.23% 19.02% 71.75%-1.28 +9.1 5
2015-02-08 @ Cosmos D 1-155.3 960 632 71.75% 19.02% 9.23%+1.28 -9.1 18
2015-02-14 Cailungo L 0-132.3 558 841 11.62% 19.44% 68.94%-1.10 -8.3 6
2015-02-14 @ San Giovanni W 1-032.3 841 558 68.94% 19.44% 11.62%+1.10 +8.3 18
2015-02-14 Cosmos W 3-032.3 699 641 48.90% 20.61% 30.48%+0.27 +53.6 21
2015-02-14 @ Domagnano L 0-332.3 641 699 30.48% 20.61% 48.90%-0.27 -53.6 5
2015-02-14 Fiorentino D 1-154.8 832 848 38.77% 20.69% 40.54%-0.02 +0.2 16
2015-02-14 @ Faetano D 1-154.8 848 832 40.54% 20.69% 38.77%+0.02 -0.2 22
2015-02-14 Murata W 1-032.9 951 716 66.85% 19.69% 13.46%+0.98 +9.5 21
2015-02-14 @ La Fiorita L 0-132.9 716 951 13.46% 19.69% 66.85%-0.98 -9.5 14
2015-02-15 Folgore Falciano L 1-238.0 794 1070 12.01% 19.50% 68.49%-1.07 -8.1 21
2015-02-15 @ Virtus W 2-138.0 1070 794 68.49% 19.50% 12.01%+1.07 +8.1 30
2015-02-15 Juvenes Dogana L 0-232.6 897 1027 24.27% 20.44% 55.29%-0.48 -30.5 22
2015-02-15 @ Libertas W 2-032.6 1027 897 55.29% 20.44% 24.27%+0.48 +30.5 30
2015-02-15 Tre Fiori W 2-153.2 804 999 17.90% 20.10% 61.99%-0.74 +34.0 18
2015-02-15 @ Tre Penne L 1-253.2 999 804 61.99% 20.10% 17.90%+0.74 -34.0 26
2015-02-21 Cailungo W 3-254.1 785 849 32.11% 20.64% 47.25%-0.22 +25.1 24
2015-02-21 @ Virtus L 2-354.1 849 785 47.25% 20.64% 32.11%+0.22 -25.1 18
2015-02-21 Juvenes Dogana W 1-048.3 833 1057 15.52% 19.91% 64.57%-0.86 +37.6 19
2015-02-21 @ Faetano L 0-148.3 1057 833 64.57% 19.91% 15.52%+0.86 -37.6 30
2015-02-21 La Fiorita L 1-338.8 838 960 25.04% 20.47% 54.49%-0.45 -27.1 18
2015-02-21 @ Tre Penne W 3-138.8 960 838 54.49% 20.47% 25.04%+0.45 +27.1 24
2015-02-21 Pennarossa D 1-154.9 867 945 30.33% 20.61% 49.06%-0.28 +2.4 23
2015-02-21 @ Libertas D 1-154.9 945 867 49.06% 20.61% 30.33%+0.28 -2.4 21
2015-02-22 Domagnano W 2-136.8 1078 753 72.57% 18.87% 8.56%+1.34 +5.8 33
2015-02-22 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-236.8 753 1078 8.56% 18.87% 72.57%-1.34 -5.8 21
2015-02-22 Fiorentino L 0-228.3 550 847 10.79% 19.31% 69.90%-1.15 -14.6 6
2015-02-22 @ San Giovanni W 2-028.3 847 550 69.90% 19.31% 10.79%+1.15 +14.6 25
2015-02-22 Murata W 4-131.6 965 706 68.55% 19.49% 11.96%+1.07 +19.7 29
2015-02-22 @ Tre Fiori L 1-431.6 706 965 11.96% 19.49% 68.55%-1.07 -19.7 14
2015-02-28 Cosmos W 3-240.5 1020 587 77.43% 17.65% 4.92%+1.77 +3.2 33
2015-02-28 @ Juvenes Dogana L 2-340.5 587 1020 4.92% 17.65% 77.43%-1.77 -3.2 5
2015-02-28 Faetano L 1-336.8 686 870 18.86% 20.17% 60.97%-0.70 -21.2 14
2015-02-28 @ Murata W 3-136.8 870 686 60.97% 20.17% 18.86%+0.70 +21.2 22
2015-02-28 Fiorentino W 1-045.2 747 862 25.87% 20.50% 53.64%-0.42 +31.4 24
2015-02-28 @ Domagnano L 0-145.2 862 747 53.64% 20.50% 25.87%+0.42 -31.4 25
2015-02-28 Virtus W 5-028.8 985 811 61.76% 20.12% 18.12%+0.73 +55.2 32
2015-02-28 @ Tre Fiori L 0-528.8 811 985 18.12% 20.12% 61.76%-0.73 -55.2 24
2015-03-01 Libertas D 0-050.5 1084 869 65.23% 19.85% 14.92%+0.89 -7.9 34
2015-03-01 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-050.5 869 1084 14.92% 19.85% 65.23%-0.89 +7.9 24
2015-03-01 San Giovanni W 3-131.7 988 535 78.17% 17.39% 4.43%+1.85 +5.2 27
2015-03-01 @ La Fiorita L 1-331.7 535 988 4.43% 17.39% 78.17%-1.85 -5.2 6
2015-03-01 Tre Penne W 3-137.9 942 811 57.46% 20.36% 22.19%+0.56 +24.4 24
2015-03-01 @ Pennarossa L 1-337.9 811 942 22.19% 20.36% 57.46%-0.56 -24.4 18
2015-03-07 Folgore Falciano W 1-045.0 967 1076 26.53% 20.52% 52.95%-0.40 +31.0 27
2015-03-07 @ Pennarossa L 0-145.0 1076 967 52.95% 20.52% 26.53%+0.40 -31.0 34
2015-03-07 Juvenes Dogana D 1-155.0 824 1023 17.60% 20.08% 62.32%-0.76 +6.2 19
2015-03-07 @ Cailungo D 1-155.0 1023 824 62.32% 20.08% 17.60%+0.76 -6.2 34
2015-03-07 Murata L 1-340.3 584 665 29.90% 20.60% 49.50%-0.29 -31.5 5
2015-03-07 @ Cosmos W 3-140.3 665 584 49.50% 20.60% 29.90%+0.29 +31.5 17
2015-03-07 Tre Fiori W 2-151.9 891 1040 22.24% 20.36% 57.40%-0.56 +31.5 25
2015-03-07 @ Faetano L 1-251.9 1040 891 57.40% 20.36% 22.24%+0.56 -31.5 32
2015-03-08 Domagnano L 0-435.5 787 779 42.11% 20.69% 37.20%+0.07 -91.0 18
2015-03-08 @ Tre Penne W 4-035.5 779 787 37.20% 20.69% 42.11%-0.07 +91.0 27
2015-03-08 La Fiorita L 0-231.6 831 993 20.89% 20.29% 58.82%-0.61 -26.8 25
2015-03-08 @ Fiorentino W 2-031.6 993 831 58.82% 20.29% 20.89%+0.61 +26.8 30
2015-03-08 Libertas L 0-424.8 530 877 8.38% 18.83% 72.79%-1.35 -21.7 6
2015-03-08 @ San Giovanni W 4-024.8 877 530 72.79% 18.83% 8.38%+1.35 +21.7 27
2015-03-14 Cailungo L 0-132.4 553 830 11.91% 19.49% 68.60%-1.08 -8.5 5
2015-03-14 @ Cosmos W 1-032.4 830 553 68.60% 19.49% 11.91%+1.08 +8.5 22
2015-03-14 Domagnano W 5-237.0 1020 869 59.43% 20.26% 20.31%+0.64 +27.7 33
2015-03-14 @ La Fiorita L 2-537.0 869 1020 20.31% 20.26% 59.43%-0.64 -27.7 27
2015-03-14 Juvenes Dogana L 0-131.6 697 1016 9.64% 19.10% 71.26%-1.24 -6.9 17
2015-03-14 @ Murata W 1-031.6 1016 697 71.26% 19.10% 9.64%+1.24 +6.9 37
2015-03-14 Tre Penne W 3-133.0 1045 696 73.82% 18.62% 7.57%+1.43 +8.9 37
2015-03-14 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-333.0 696 1045 7.57% 18.62% 73.82%-1.43 -8.9 18
2015-03-15 Faetano D 0-050.3 755 923 20.36% 20.26% 59.38%-0.63 +6.0 25
2015-03-15 @ Virtus D 0-050.3 923 755 59.38% 20.26% 20.36%+0.63 -6.0 26
2015-03-15 Fiorentino D 1-154.9 899 804 53.42% 20.51% 26.07%+0.42 -3.6 28
2015-03-15 @ Libertas D 1-154.9 804 899 26.07% 20.51% 53.42%-0.42 +3.6 26
2015-03-15 San Giovanni W 3-131.3 998 509 79.43% 16.92% 3.66%+1.99 +4.2 30
2015-03-15 @ Pennarossa L 1-331.3 509 998 3.66% 16.92% 79.43%-1.99 -4.3 6
2015-03-21 Folgore Falciano L 0-422.4 504 1054 2.93% 16.35% 80.72%-2.16 -7.4 6
2015-03-21 @ San Giovanni W 4-022.4 1054 504 80.72% 16.35% 2.93%+2.16 +7.4 40
2015-03-21 Libertas D 1-155.0 1047 895 59.62% 20.25% 20.13%+0.64 -5.4 34
2015-03-21 @ La Fiorita D 1-155.0 895 1047 20.13% 20.25% 59.62%-0.64 +5.4 29
2015-03-21 Tre Fiori L 0-142.1 1023 1008 43.06% 20.68% 36.26%+0.10 -25.9 37
2015-03-21 @ Juvenes Dogana W 1-042.1 1008 1023 36.26% 20.68% 43.06%-0.10 +25.9 35
2015-03-21 Tre Penne W 1-036.0 808 687 56.35% 20.40% 23.25%+0.52 +15.6 29
2015-03-21 @ Fiorentino L 0-136.0 687 808 23.25% 20.40% 56.35%-0.52 -15.6 18
2015-03-22 Cosmos W 3-027.4 761 544 65.46% 19.83% 14.72%+0.91 +28.4 28
2015-03-22 @ Virtus L 0-327.4 544 761 14.72% 19.83% 65.46%-0.91 -28.4 5
2015-03-22 Murata W 3-029.2 839 690 59.35% 20.26% 20.39%+0.63 +38.0 25
2015-03-22 @ Cailungo L 0-329.2 690 839 20.39% 20.26% 59.35%-0.63 -38.0 17
2015-03-22 Pennarossa W 2-152.3 842 1002 21.09% 20.30% 58.61%-0.60 +32.2 30
2015-03-22 @ Domagnano L 1-252.3 1002 842 58.61% 20.30% 21.09%+0.60 -32.2 30
2015-04-11 Fiorentino W 3-135.0 1061 823 67.05% 19.67% 13.28%+0.99 +15.4 43
2015-04-11 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-335.0 823 1061 13.28% 19.67% 67.05%-0.99 -15.4 29
2015-04-11 La Fiorita L 1-244.1 970 1042 31.04% 20.62% 48.34%-0.25 -18.7 30
2015-04-11 @ Pennarossa W 2-144.1 1042 970 48.34% 20.62% 31.04%+0.25 +18.7 37
2015-04-11 Libertas L 0-327.5 671 901 15.14% 19.87% 64.99%-0.88 -29.1 18
2015-04-11 @ Tre Penne W 3-027.5 901 671 64.99% 19.87% 15.14%+0.88 +29.1 32
2015-04-11 San Giovanni W 3-241.2 874 497 75.15% 18.30% 6.55%+1.55 +4.2 33
2015-04-11 @ Domagnano L 2-341.2 497 874 6.55% 18.30% 75.15%-1.55 -4.2 6
2015-04-12 Faetano L 1-429.6 516 917 6.34% 18.23% 75.42%-1.57 -10.6 5
2015-04-12 @ Cosmos W 4-129.6 917 516 75.42% 18.23% 6.34%+1.57 +10.6 29
2015-04-12 Tre Fiori W 1-046.5 877 1034 21.36% 20.31% 58.32%-0.59 +34.0 28
2015-04-12 @ Cailungo L 0-146.5 1034 877 58.32% 20.31% 21.36%+0.59 -34.0 35
2015-04-12 Virtus W 3-148.1 652 790 23.33% 20.41% 56.26%-0.52 +53.6 20
2015-04-12 @ Murata L 1-348.1 790 652 56.26% 20.41% 23.33%+0.52 -53.6 28
2015-04-18 Domagnano L 0-143.5 930 878 48.02% 20.63% 31.35%+0.24 -28.4 32
2015-04-18 @ Libertas W 1-043.5 878 930 31.35% 20.63% 48.02%-0.24 +28.4 36
2015-04-18 Folgore Falciano D 1-154.9 1061 1076 38.67% 20.69% 40.64%-0.03 +0.2 38
2015-04-18 @ La Fiorita D 1-154.9 1076 1061 40.64% 20.69% 38.67%+0.03 -0.2 44
2015-04-18 Pennarossa W 2-151.8 808 951 22.79% 20.38% 56.83%-0.54 +31.2 32
2015-04-18 @ Fiorentino L 1-251.8 951 808 56.83% 20.38% 22.79%+0.54 -31.2 30
2015-04-18 San Giovanni L 2-548.7 642 493 59.38% 20.26% 20.36%+0.63 -69.1 18
2015-04-18 @ Tre Penne W 5-248.7 493 642 20.36% 20.26% 59.38%-0.63 +69.1 9
2015-04-19 Cailungo W 3-142.1 928 911 43.28% 20.68% 36.04%+0.10 +36.6 32
2015-04-19 @ Faetano L 1-342.1 911 928 36.04% 20.68% 43.28%-0.10 -36.6 28
2015-04-19 Cosmos W 5-126.7 1000 505 79.62% 16.84% 3.54%+2.02 +7.5 38
2015-04-19 @ Tre Fiori L 1-526.7 505 1000 3.54% 16.84% 79.62%-2.02 -7.5 5
2015-04-19 Virtus W 2-138.0 998 736 68.72% 19.47% 11.81%+1.08 +8.0 40
2015-04-19 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-238.0 736 998 11.81% 19.47% 68.72%-1.08 -8.0 28

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2015-05-04 Domagnano W 1-037.0 1008 907 53.09% 20.51% 26.39%+0.41 +17.4 1-0
2015-05-04 @ Tre Fiori L 0-137.0 907 1008 26.39% 20.51% 53.09%-0.41 -17.4 0-1
2015-05-04 Faetano W 3-139.4 1061 964 52.53% 20.53% 26.94%+0.39 +28.8 1-0
2015-05-04 @ La Fiorita L 1-339.4 964 1061 26.94% 20.53% 52.53%-0.39 -28.8 0-1
2015-05-08 Faetano L 0-235.4 889 935 33.25% 20.66% 46.10%-0.18 -39.6 0-2
2015-05-08 @ Domagnano W 2-035.4 935 889 46.10% 20.66% 33.25%+0.18 +39.6 1-1
2015-05-09 La Fiorita L 0-138.4 1025 1090 30.87% 20.62% 48.51%-0.26 -19.8 1-1
2015-05-09 @ Tre Fiori W 1-038.4 1090 1025 48.51% 20.62% 30.87%+0.26 +19.8 2-0
2015-05-11 Juvenes Dogana W 2-143.8 1076 1005 49.32% 20.61% 30.08%+0.28 +18.2 1-0
2015-05-11 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-243.8 1005 1076 30.08% 20.61% 49.32%-0.28 -18.2 0-1
2015-05-14 Tre Fiori L 3-547.5 975 1005 35.38% 20.68% 43.94%-0.12 -30.5 1-2
2015-05-14 @ Faetano W 5-347.5 1005 975 43.94% 20.68% 35.38%+0.12 +30.5 2-1
2015-05-16 La Fiorita W 2-147.4 1094 1109 37.52% 20.69% 41.79%-0.06 +23.8 2-0
2015-05-16 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-247.4 1109 1094 41.79% 20.69% 37.52%+0.06 -23.8 2-1
2015-05-18 Juvenes Dogana L 0-337.1 1036 987 46.44% 20.65% 32.91%+0.20 -75.6 2-2
2015-05-18 @ Tre Fiori W 3-037.1 987 1036 32.91% 20.65% 46.44%-0.20 +75.6 1-1
2015-05-23 La Fiorita W 4-248.1 1063 1086 36.43% 20.68% 42.89%-0.09 +37.7 2-1
2015-05-23 @ Juvenes Dogana L 2-448.1 1086 1063 42.89% 20.68% 36.43%+0.09 -37.7 2-2
2015-05-26 Juvenes Dogana W 3-142.5 1118 1100 42.18% 20.69% 37.13%+0.07 +37.5 3-0
2015-05-26 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-342.5 1100 1118 37.13% 20.69% 42.18%-0.07 -37.5 2-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-09-27 5.76% Fiorentino 709 2 @ La Fiorita 1111 1
2 2014-12-13 9.25% @ Cailungo 741 2 Folgore Falciano 1068 0
3 2014-10-18 11.62% Domagnano 657 1 @ Pennarossa 921 0
4 2014-10-25 13.08% @ Fiorentino 819 3 Folgore Falciano 1078 2
5 2014-09-21 13.32% Murata 660 2 @ Faetano 897 0
6 2015-02-21 15.52% @ Faetano 833 1 Juvenes Dogana 1057 0
7 2014-12-14 16.34% Faetano 788 1 @ La Fiorita 983 0
8 2014-11-22 16.85% San Giovanni 583 2 @ Faetano 772 1
9 2014-10-17 16.88% @ Libertas 867 1 La Fiorita 1074 0
10 2015-02-15 17.90% @ Tre Penne 804 2 Tre Fiori 999 1
11 2015-02-08 17.91% Faetano 800 3 @ Pennarossa 977 2
12 2014-11-22 18.04% @ Domagnano 722 1 Tre Fiori 915 0
13 2014-11-08 19.31% @ Virtus 785 2 Pennarossa 963 1
14 2014-10-26 19.79% Pennarossa 881 2 @ La Fiorita 1037 0
15 2015-04-18 20.36% San Giovanni 493 5 @ Tre Penne 642 2
16 2015-03-22 21.09% @ Domagnano 842 2 Pennarossa 1002 1
17 2015-04-12 21.36% @ Cailungo 877 1 Tre Fiori 1034 0
18 2014-10-19 21.53% Fiorentino 755 2 @ Tre Penne 893 0
19 2014-10-18 22.10% Cailungo 668 5 @ Murata 800 1
20 2015-03-07 22.24% @ Faetano 891 2 Tre Fiori 1040 1
21 2015-04-18 22.79% @ Fiorentino 808 2 Pennarossa 951 1
22 2015-04-12 23.33% @ Murata 652 3 Virtus 790 1
23 2014-12-06 23.45% Virtus 803 1 @ Libertas 922 0
24 2014-09-21 23.63% Domagnano 623 2 @ Fiorentino 740 1
25 2014-11-30 23.66% @ Tre Fiori 879 2 La Fiorita 1014 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-10-18 99.98 Cailungo 5 668 22.10% @ Murata 1 800 57.55% 20.35%
2 2015-03-08 90.95 Domagnano 4 779 37.20% @ Tre Penne 0 787 42.11% 20.69%
3 2014-12-13 78.76 @ Cailungo 2 741 9.25% Folgore Falciano 0 1068 71.73% 19.02%
4 2015-05-18 * 75.57 Juvenes Dogana 3 987 32.91% @ Tre Fiori 0 1036 46.44% 20.65%
5 2014-09-21 73.53 Murata 2 660 13.32% @ Faetano 0 897 67.01% 19.67%
6 2015-04-18 69.13 San Giovanni 5 493 20.36% @ Tre Penne 2 642 59.38% 20.26%
7 2014-10-26 65.83 Pennarossa 2 881 19.79% @ La Fiorita 0 1037 59.98% 20.23%
8 2014-10-19 63.87 Fiorentino 2 755 21.53% @ Tre Penne 0 893 58.15% 20.32%
9 2014-09-14 63.64 Virtus 4 706 32.98% @ Cailungo 1 746 46.37% 20.65%
10 2014-09-26 61.24 @ Murata 5 733 27.24% Cosmos 2 836 52.22% 20.54%
11 2014-09-21 59.58 Juvenes Dogana 3 940 44.65% @ Cosmos 0 896 34.68% 20.67%
12 2015-02-07 55.66 Folgore Falciano 2 1014 29.26% @ Juvenes Dogana 0 1082 50.15% 20.59%
13 2015-02-28 55.17 @ Tre Fiori 5 985 61.76% Virtus 0 811 18.12% 20.12%
14 2015-02-14 53.61 @ Domagnano 3 699 48.90% Cosmos 0 641 30.48% 20.61%
15 2015-04-12 53.59 @ Murata 3 652 23.33% Virtus 1 790 56.26% 20.41%
16 2014-12-07 51.72 Murata 3 715 25.34% @ Tre Penne 1 817 54.18% 20.48%
17 2015-02-07 50.58 Tre Penne 3 754 26.60% @ Virtus 1 844 52.88% 20.52%
18 2014-12-06 46.93 @ Faetano 2 741 38.28% Domagnano 0 759 41.03% 20.69%
19 2014-09-27 41.75 Fiorentino 2 709 5.76% @ La Fiorita 1 1111 76.23% 18.01%
20 2014-10-18 40.13 Domagnano 1 657 11.62% @ Pennarossa 0 921 68.93% 19.44%
21 2015-05-08 * 39.64 Faetano 2 935 46.10% @ Domagnano 0 889 33.25% 20.66%
22 2014-09-20 39.25 Folgore Falciano 4 1012 53.75% @ Libertas 1 896 25.75% 20.49%
23 2014-12-13 38.61 Pennarossa 4 929 64.72% @ Cosmos 0 703 15.39% 19.89%
24 2014-12-14 38.15 @ Tre Fiori 2 938 47.64% Libertas 0 889 31.73% 20.63%
25 2015-03-22 38.05 @ Cailungo 3 839 59.35% Murata 0 690 20.39% 20.26%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-09-14 64.9 @ La Fiorita 3 1108 66.12% Tre Penne 3 882 14.12% 19.76%
2 2014-10-05 61.0 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 1017 65.92% Murata 2 794 14.30% 19.78%
3 2014-11-01 60.8 @ Folgore Falciano 2 1043 50.62% La Fiorita 2 971 28.80% 20.58%
4 2014-10-25 59.8 @ Fiorentino 3 819 13.08% Folgore Falciano 2 1078 67.28% 19.64%
5 2015-02-08 58.4 Faetano 3 800 17.91% @ Pennarossa 2 977 61.98% 20.10%
6 2014-09-27 56.9 Fiorentino 2 709 5.76% @ La Fiorita 1 1111 76.23% 18.01%
7 2014-11-23 55.4 @ Murata 1 709 7.92% Folgore Falciano 1 1067 73.37% 18.71%
8 2015-02-08 55.3 @ Cosmos 1 632 9.23% La Fiorita 1 960 71.75% 19.02%
9 2014-09-27 55.2 @ Domagnano 1 653 12.98% Tre Penne 1 914 67.39% 19.63%
10 2014-11-09 55.0 @ Cosmos 1 759 62.48% San Giovanni 1 577 17.45% 20.07%
11 2015-03-07 55.0 @ Cailungo 1 824 17.60% Juvenes Dogana 1 1023 62.32% 20.08%
12 2015-03-21 55.0 @ La Fiorita 1 1047 59.62% Libertas 1 895 20.13% 20.25%
13 2014-09-14 54.9 @ Pennarossa 1 964 50.56% Libertas 1 893 28.86% 20.58%
14 2014-10-05 54.9 @ Cailungo 1 664 26.37% Cosmos 1 775 53.12% 20.51%
15 2014-11-08 54.9 @ Murata 1 705 23.88% Fiorentino 1 838 55.69% 20.43%
16 2014-11-29 54.9 @ Tre Penne 1 820 51.92% Faetano 1 738 27.53% 20.55%
17 2014-11-29 54.9 @ San Giovanni 1 618 27.46% Murata 1 719 51.99% 20.55%
18 2014-11-30 54.9 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 1046 53.17% Pennarossa 1 954 26.32% 20.51%
19 2014-12-07 54.9 @ Cailungo 1 737 27.18% Fiorentino 1 841 52.28% 20.54%
20 2015-02-21 54.9 @ Libertas 1 867 30.33% Pennarossa 1 945 49.06% 20.61%
21 2015-03-15 54.9 @ Libertas 1 899 53.42% Fiorentino 1 804 26.07% 20.51%
22 2015-04-18 54.9 @ La Fiorita 1 1061 38.67% Folgore Falciano 1 1076 40.64% 20.69%
23 2014-10-25 54.8 @ Faetano 1 766 43.08% Cosmos 1 751 36.24% 20.68%
24 2014-11-30 54.8 @ Domagnano 1 758 34.39% Virtus 1 805 44.94% 20.67%
25 2015-02-14 54.8 @ Faetano 1 832 38.77% Fiorentino 1 848 40.54% 20.69%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-03-21 22.4 Folgore Falciano 4 1054 80.72% @ San Giovanni 0 504 2.93% 16.35%
2 2015-03-08 24.8 Libertas 4 877 72.79% @ San Giovanni 0 530 8.38% 18.83%
3 2014-09-28 25.3 @ Juvenes Dogana 3 1000 72.19% Cailungo 0 682 8.87% 18.94%
4 2014-12-06 25.3 Juvenes Dogana 6 1043 76.32% @ San Giovanni 0 621 5.69% 17.99%
5 2014-12-14 26.6 @ Virtus 4 836 66.98% San Giovanni 0 599 13.35% 19.68%
6 2015-04-19 26.7 @ Tre Fiori 5 1000 79.62% Cosmos 1 505 3.54% 16.84%
7 2014-12-07 27.2 @ Folgore Falciano 2 1058 73.58% Cosmos 0 713 7.75% 18.67%
8 2014-12-13 27.2 Pennarossa 4 929 64.72% @ Cosmos 0 703 15.39% 19.89%
9 2015-03-22 27.4 @ Virtus 3 761 65.46% Cosmos 0 544 14.72% 19.83%
10 2015-04-11 27.5 Libertas 3 901 64.99% @ Tre Penne 0 671 15.14% 19.87%
11 2014-11-01 27.8 Juvenes Dogana 3 1032 63.96% @ Virtus 0 815 16.09% 19.96%
12 2015-01-31 28.1 @ Libertas 3 851 62.92% Cosmos 0 664 17.04% 20.04%
13 2015-02-22 28.3 Fiorentino 2 847 69.90% @ San Giovanni 0 550 10.79% 19.31%
14 2014-09-20 28.7 La Fiorita 4 1103 78.10% @ San Giovanni 1 635 4.48% 17.42%
15 2015-02-28 28.8 @ Tre Fiori 5 985 61.76% Virtus 0 811 18.12% 20.12%
16 2015-03-22 29.2 @ Cailungo 3 839 59.35% Murata 0 690 20.39% 20.26%
17 2015-04-12 29.6 Faetano 4 917 75.42% @ Cosmos 1 516 6.34% 18.23%
18 2014-10-03 30.2 La Fiorita 1 1069 75.72% @ Domagnano 0 661 6.13% 18.16%
19 2014-11-22 30.6 @ Pennarossa 2 930 62.04% Cailungo 0 753 17.86% 20.10%
20 2015-01-31 31.0 @ Folgore Falciano 2 990 60.87% Faetano 0 825 18.96% 20.18%
21 2015-02-01 31.3 Juvenes Dogana 1 1076 72.12% @ Domagnano 0 741 8.93% 18.95%
22 2015-03-15 31.3 @ Pennarossa 3 998 79.43% San Giovanni 1 509 3.66% 16.92%
23 2015-02-22 31.6 @ Tre Fiori 4 965 68.55% Murata 1 706 11.96% 19.49%
24 2015-03-08 31.6 La Fiorita 2 993 58.82% @ Fiorentino 0 831 20.89% 20.29%
25 2015-03-14 31.6 Juvenes Dogana 1 1016 71.26% @ Murata 0 697 9.64% 19.10%