2015-16 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Penne

48 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Tre Penne

11.78 points above expected

48 points · 36.22 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Faetano

11.05 points below expected

15 points · 26.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Tre Penne	20	15	3	2	48	50	14	+36	36.22	+11.78
2	La Fiorita	21	13	2	6	41	56	25	+31	41.67	-0.67
3	Tre Fiori	20	13	1	6	40	37	27	+10	34.38	+5.62
4	Folgore Falciano	20	12	3	5	39	44	25	+19	36.48	+2.52
5	Pennarossa	21	9	8	4	35	32	20	+12	34.07	+0.93
6	Fiorentino	20	11	2	7	35	30	24	+6	26.82	+8.18
7	Juvenes Dogana	21	9	4	8	31	34	27	+7	35.63	-4.63
8	Domagnano	20	9	3	8	30	33	32	+1	26.69	+3.31
9	Virtus	20	8	4	8	28	37	36	+1	26.02	+1.98
10	Libertas	21	7	6	8	27	23	26	-3	28.99	-1.99
11	Murata	20	7	3	10	24	35	45	-10	21.39	+2.61
12	Cosmos	21	3	8	10	17	25	37	-12	20.65	-3.65
13	Cailungo	21	4	4	13	16	19	50	-31	22.47	-6.47
14	Faetano	21	3	6	12	15	18	35	-17	26.05	-11.05
15	San Giovanni	21	1	3	17	6	13	63	-50	14.86	-8.86

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Tre Penne	48	36.22	+11.78
2	Fiorentino	35	26.82	+8.18
3	Tre Fiori	40	34.38	+5.62
4	Domagnano	30	26.69	+3.31
5	Murata	24	21.39	+2.61

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Faetano	15	26.05	-11.05
2	San Giovanni	6	14.86	-8.86
3	Cailungo	16	22.47	-6.47
4	Juvenes Dogana	31	35.63	-4.63
5	Cosmos	17	20.65	-3.65

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Murata	4	Nov 8 – Dec 6	1 in 559
2	Pennarossa	6	Feb 27 – Apr 9	1 in 57
3	Tre Fiori	5	Sep 13 – Oct 24	1 in 46
4	Fiorentino	3	Dec 13 – Feb 13	1 in 40
5	Tre Penne	6	Feb 21 – Apr 10	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Faetano	8	Oct 24 – Feb 13	1 in 263
2	La Fiorita	2	Nov 8 – Nov 20	1 in 101
3	San Giovanni	9	Oct 24 – Feb 20	1 in 39
4	Virtus	4	Feb 27 – Mar 20	1 in 18
5	Cailungo	3	Sep 27 – Oct 17	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Virtus	9	Nov 1 – Feb 20	1 in 230
2	Tre Penne	14	Nov 1 – Apr 10	1 in 41
3	Murata	4	Nov 8 – Dec 6	1 in 36
4	Fiorentino	7	Nov 28 – Feb 27	1 in 32
5	Cosmos	4	Oct 3 – Nov 1	1 in 30

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Faetano	18	Oct 4 – Apr 16	1 in 904
2	Libertas	10	Oct 24 – Feb 27	1 in 130
3	La Fiorita	3	Nov 8 – Nov 28	1 in 25
4	Cailungo	7	Sep 19 – Nov 7	1 in 22
5	San Giovanni	16	Oct 24 – Apr 16	1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Tre Penne	1062	48	+32	12	10.9	+1.1
La Fiorita	973	41	+46	12	11.6	+0.4
Tre Fiori	897	40	+41	9	7.1	+1.9
Folgore Falciano	1013	39	+51	10	9.1	+0.9
Pennarossa	903	35	+56	13	10.5	+2.5
Fiorentino	890	35	+4	9	7.2	+1.8
Juvenes Dogana	858	31	+17	10	9.2	+0.8
Domagnano	806	30	-12	6	5.4	+0.6
Virtus	775	28	-66	3	5.5	-2.5
Libertas	809	27	+28	10	7.9	+2.1
Murata	743	24	-34	4	4.0	-0.0
Cosmos	662	17	-39	4	5.1	-1.1
Cailungo	583	16	-56	2	4.7	-2.7
Faetano	649	15	-30	2	4.4	-2.4
San Giovanni	464	6	-21	2	2.8	-0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CAI	COS	DOM	FAE	FIO	FF	JD	LF	LIB	MUR	PEN	SG	TF	TP	VIR
Cailungo	—	2-0-0 3.03	0-0-1 1.20	0-1-1 2.50	0-0-1 1.22	0-0-1 0.63	0-0-2 1.43	0-0-2 1.42	0-1-1 2.69	1-0-0 1.00	0-1-1 1.58	0-1-1 3.79	1-0-0 0.55	0-0-1 0.65	0-0-1 0.98
Cosmos	0-0-2 2.58	—	1-0-0 0.81	0-1-1 2.35	0-1-0 0.98	0-0-1 0.50	0-2-0 1.53	0-0-2 1.29	0-1-1 1.61	0-1-0 1.05	0-1-1 1.54	2-0-0 3.63	0-0-1 0.73	0-1-0 0.58	0-0-1 1.34
Domagnano	1-0-0 1.60	0-0-1 2.00	—	1-0-0 1.93	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 2.02	0-1-0 0.99	0-0-1 0.91	0-1-0 1.60	2-0-0 3.19	0-1-0 1.21	1-0-0 2.29	0-0-2 2.72	0-0-2 1.90	2-0-0 2.70
Faetano	1-1-0 3.11	1-1-0 3.26	0-0-1 0.88	—	0-1-0 0.76	0-0-1 0.96	0-0-2 2.08	0-1-1 1.33	0-0-2 2.49	0-0-1 1.32	0-1-1 1.94	1-1-0 3.89	0-0-1 0.82	0-0-1 1.11	0-0-1 1.06
Fiorentino	1-0-0 1.58	0-1-0 1.82	1-0-1 3.00	0-1-0 2.05	—	1-0-1 2.02	1-0-0 1.06	1-0-0 0.70	1-0-0 1.70	2-0-0 3.46	0-0-1 1.17	1-0-0 2.03	1-0-1 2.50	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 3.05
Folgore Falciano	1-0-0 2.19	1-0-0 2.32	1-0-1 3.60	1-0-0 1.85	1-0-1 3.59	—	1-0-0 1.20	0-1-0 1.15	1-0-0 1.75	1-1-0 3.99	1-0-0 2.01	1-0-0 2.48	1-0-1 2.87	0-0-2 3.41	1-1-0 3.78
Juvenes Dogana	2-0-0 4.20	0-2-0 4.10	0-1-0 1.82	2-0-0 3.54	0-0-1 1.75	0-0-1 1.61	—	0-0-2 2.45	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 4.26	1-0-0 1.31	0-1-0 0.90	0-0-1 1.44
La Fiorita	2-0-0 4.22	2-0-0 4.34	1-0-0 1.90	1-1-0 4.30	0-0-1 2.12	0-1-0 1.66	2-0-0 3.17	—	1-0-1 3.93	0-0-1 2.44	1-0-1 3.57	2-0-0 4.94	1-0-0 1.33	0-0-1 1.52	0-0-1 2.24
Libertas	1-1-0 2.92	1-1-0 4.02	0-1-0 1.20	2-0-0 3.12	0-0-1 1.11	0-0-1 1.05	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 1.69	—	0-0-1 1.86	0-1-1 2.47	1-1-0 4.22	0-0-1 1.08	0-0-1 0.66	0-1-0 1.65
Murata	0-0-1 1.81	0-1-0 1.76	0-0-2 2.42	1-0-0 1.48	0-0-2 2.16	0-1-1 1.63	1-0-0 0.85	1-0-0 0.40	1-0-0 0.95	—	0-1-0 1.18	1-0-0 2.22	0-0-2 1.81	1-0-1 1.18	1-0-1 2.35
Pennarossa	1-1-0 4.05	1-1-0 4.08	0-1-0 1.60	1-1-0 3.69	1-0-0 1.64	0-0-1 0.80	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.05	1-1-0 3.14	0-1-0 1.63	—	2-0-0 4.37	0-0-1 1.25	0-1-0 1.10	0-1-0 1.65
San Giovanni	1-1-0 1.83	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-1 0.53	0-1-1 1.73	0-0-1 0.78	0-0-1 0.35	0-0-2 1.38	0-0-2 0.73	0-1-1 1.41	0-0-1 0.60	0-0-2 1.27	—	0-0-1 0.37	0-0-1 0.55	0-0-1 0.75
Tre Fiori	0-0-1 2.27	1-0-0 2.09	2-0-0 2.89	1-0-0 1.99	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-1 1.50	0-0-1 1.48	1-0-0 1.72	2-0-0 3.81	1-0-0 1.55	1-0-0 2.46	—	1-0-1 2.43	1-1-0 3.85
Tre Penne	1-0-0 2.16	0-1-0 2.24	2-0-0 3.73	1-0-0 1.70	2-0-0 3.21	2-0-0 2.21	0-1-0 1.91	1-0-0 1.29	1-0-0 2.16	1-0-1 4.46	0-1-0 1.71	1-0-0 2.27	1-0-1 3.19	—	2-0-0 3.84
Virtus	1-0-0 1.83	1-0-0 1.47	0-0-2 2.91	1-0-0 1.75	1-0-1 2.56	0-1-1 1.84	1-0-0 1.36	1-0-0 0.58	0-1-0 1.16	1-0-1 3.26	0-1-0 1.16	1-0-0 2.06	0-1-1 1.77	0-0-2 1.78	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.77	+8.6
Allowed	0.77	-8.1
Differential	0.93	+5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	5.84%	5.52%	3.25%	2.92%	1.62%	23.70%
1	5.84%	8.44%	8.77%	5.19%	2.60%	0.32%	31.17%
2	5.52%	8.77%	4.55%	1.62%	1.30%	0.65%	22.40%
3	3.25%	5.19%	1.62%	1.95%	0.32%	0.32%	12.66%
4	2.92%	2.60%	1.30%	0.32%	—	—	7.14%
5+	1.62%	0.32%	0.65%	0.32%	—	—	2.92%
Total	23.70%	31.17%	22.40%	12.66%	7.14%	2.92%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.58	1.58	+0.00
SD	1.34	1.34	2.12
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.52%	4.76%	9.52%	14.29%	4.76%	9.52%	52.38%
1	—	9.52%	9.52%	—	4.76%	4.76%	28.57%
2	—	9.52%	—	—	—	—	9.52%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.76%	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	4.76%	—	—	4.76%
Total	9.52%	28.57%	19.05%	19.05%	9.52%	14.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.90	2.38	-1.48
SD	1.37	1.69	2.34
CV	1.52	0.71	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	—	—	—	—	4.76%	19.05%
1	—	9.52%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	52.38%
2	—	4.76%	14.29%	—	—	—	19.05%
3	—	9.52%	—	—	—	—	9.52%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	23.81%	42.86%	14.29%	—	4.76%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.76	-0.57
SD	0.87	1.18	1.50
CV	0.73	0.67	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.00%	15.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
1	5.00%	5.00%	—	5.00%	—	—	15.00%
2	10.00%	20.00%	10.00%	5.00%	10.00%	—	55.00%
3	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.00%	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	20.00%	30.00%	30.00%	10.00%	10.00%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.65	1.60	+0.05
SD	1.18	1.23	1.73
CV	0.72	0.77	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.52%	19.05%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
1	4.76%	9.52%	4.76%	9.52%	4.76%	—	33.33%
2	—	9.52%	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	19.05%
3	—	—	—	4.76%	—	—	4.76%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	38.10%	23.81%	14.29%	9.52%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.86	1.67	-0.81
SD	0.91	1.20	1.17
CV	1.06	0.72	—
Max	3	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.00%	10.00%	—	15.00%	—	—	30.00%
1	10.00%	—	5.00%	—	—	—	15.00%
2	10.00%	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	30.00%
3	5.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	40.00%	10.00%	20.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.20	+0.30
SD	1.19	1.11	1.87
CV	0.79	0.92	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	10.00%
1	—	10.00%	15.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	5.00%	15.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
3	5.00%	10.00%	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	30.00%
4	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	—	5.00%	—	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	15.00%	50.00%	30.00%	5.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.20	1.25	+0.95
SD	1.36	0.79	1.73
CV	0.62	0.63	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.76%	9.52%	—	—	—	14.29%
1	9.52%	4.76%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
2	9.52%	9.52%	14.29%	9.52%	—	—	42.86%
3	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	—	—	9.52%
4	4.76%	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	23.81%	38.10%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	1.29	+0.33
SD	1.02	1.01	1.62
CV	0.63	0.78	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	—	—	4.76%	—	—	9.52%
1	4.76%	4.76%	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	28.57%
2	9.52%	—	—	—	—	—	9.52%
3	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	14.29%
4	4.76%	4.76%	9.52%	—	—	—	19.05%
5+	19.05%	—	—	—	—	—	19.05%
Total	42.86%	14.29%	28.57%	9.52%	4.76%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.19	+1.48
SD	1.83	1.25	2.54
CV	0.68	1.05	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	14.29%	—	4.76%	9.52%	—	33.33%
1	4.76%	23.81%	9.52%	—	—	—	38.10%
2	4.76%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	19.05%
3	4.76%	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%
4	4.76%	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.81%	52.38%	9.52%	4.76%	9.52%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.10	1.24	-0.14
SD	1.09	1.18	1.98
CV	1.00	0.95	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.00%	—	5.00%	—	10.00%
1	5.00%	5.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	—	40.00%
2	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	5.00%	20.00%
3	—	10.00%	—	10.00%	—	5.00%	25.00%
4	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.00%	25.00%	15.00%	20.00%	15.00%	10.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	2.25	-0.50
SD	1.12	1.62	2.14
CV	0.64	0.72	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.52%	9.52%	4.76%	—	—	—	23.81%
1	19.05%	14.29%	4.76%	—	—	—	38.10%
2	—	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	—	9.52%
3	4.76%	4.76%	—	9.52%	—	—	19.05%
4	4.76%	4.76%	—	—	—	—	9.52%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.10%	38.10%	14.29%	9.52%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.52	0.95	+0.57
SD	1.33	0.97	1.47
CV	0.87	1.02	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%	19.05%	9.52%	47.62%
1	4.76%	9.52%	4.76%	14.29%	9.52%	—	42.86%
2	—	—	—	—	4.76%	4.76%	9.52%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.52%	14.29%	9.52%	19.05%	33.33%	14.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.62	3.00	-2.38
SD	0.67	1.67	1.80
CV	1.08	0.56	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.00%	—	5.00%	—	10.00%
1	15.00%	—	5.00%	10.00%	5.00%	—	35.00%
2	15.00%	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	30.00%
3	—	10.00%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	15.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	35.00%	25.00%	20.00%	10.00%	10.00%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.85	1.35	+0.50
SD	1.23	1.35	2.14
CV	0.66	1.00	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.00%	—	—	—	—	5.00%
1	5.00%	10.00%	—	5.00%	—	—	20.00%
2	15.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	20.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	30.00%
4	5.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	15.00%
5+	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	50.00%	35.00%	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	0.70	+1.80
SD	1.40	0.86	1.85
CV	0.56	1.24	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.00%	5.00%	10.00%	5.00%	—	—	25.00%
1	—	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	25.00%
2	—	10.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	20.00%
3	—	—	5.00%	—	—	—	5.00%
4	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	—	20.00%
5+	—	—	5.00%	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	10.00%	30.00%	35.00%	20.00%	5.00%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.85	1.80	+0.05
SD	1.63	1.06	1.99
CV	0.88	0.59	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Tre Penne	1123	48	36.22	+11.78	99.0%	24	27	33	37	39	43	49
Folgore Falciano	1011	39	36.48	+2.52	69.0%	21	26	33	36	40	46	51
La Fiorita	994	41	41.67	-0.67	50.0%	27	32	37	41	45	49	52
Fiorentino	890	35	26.82	+8.18	91.0%	8	18	21	27	31	38	43
Tre Fiori	883	40	34.38	+5.62	86.0%	18	24	30	34	38	44	45
Pennarossa	854	35	34.07	+0.93	58.0%	19	23	30	34	38	42	49
Juvenes Dogana	841	31	35.63	-4.63	28.0%	22	25	31	36	40	47	49
Libertas	809	27	28.99	-1.99	37.0%	16	19	25	29	33	37	42
Domagnano	806	30	26.69	+3.31	74.0%	12	17	22	27	31	35	45
Virtus	775	28	26.02	+1.98	71.0%	13	17	22	25	29	37	42
Murata	743	24	21.39	+2.61	78.0%	11	14	18	21	24	29	35
Cosmos	662	17	20.65	-3.65	25.0%	11	12	17	20	24	29	33
Faetano	649	15	26.05	-11.05	4.0%	7	16	22	27	30	36	43
Cailungo	583	16	22.47	-6.47	21.0%	10	12	18	22	27	32	41
San Giovanni	464	6	14.86	-8.86	7.0%	4	6	11	15	18	24	29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-3.90%

Slight Edge

38.31%19.48%42.21%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -13.54 Elo pts.

150 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.13 goals

Neutral

-2-0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.9

Top-Heavy

145610

Champion Preseason Odds

38%

Tre Penne, 2nd of 15

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.33/gm

Runaway

00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.57 * Some Luck: 4.57 to 6.86 * Lucky: 6.86 to 9.14 * Wild Swing: 9.14 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.75 * Close: 1.75 to 2.62 * Off: 2.62 to 3.5 * Way Off: 3.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.04 points

Some Luck

05.7214

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.87

02.195

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.67%

99.00%

Tre Penne

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.33%

4.00%

Faetano

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 15

Minimal Outliers

01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Even

00.20.260.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 164.87

1.85

Moderate Separation

11.71.92.23

Interquartile Edge

76%

Slight Edge

50%74%84.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

97%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

53%

Few

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.36

Very Even

00.370.430.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.17

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.36

Weak Carryover

00.360.520.691

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.31

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.03

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.117

Well Within Noise

00.1370.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Folgore Falciano 3

Pennarossa 0

Tre Fiori 1

Juvenes Dogana 0

Second Round

Folgore Falciano 3

Tre Fiori 2

Juvenes Dogana 7

Pennarossa 6

Third Round

Tre Penne 2

La Fiorita 1

Juvenes Dogana 1

Tre Fiori 0

Quarterfinals

Tre Penne 3

Folgore Falciano 1

La Fiorita 3

Juvenes Dogana 0

Semifinals

La Fiorita 2

Folgore Falciano 1

Sim: 7.0%

Finals

Tre Penne 3

La Fiorita 1

Sim: 11.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Tre Penne	38.00%	27.00%	18.00%	11.00%	3.00%	3.00%	—	—
La Fiorita	68.00%	24.00%	5.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Tre Fiori	22.00%	33.00%	19.00%	15.00%	5.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—
Folgore Falciano	32.00%	24.00%	29.00%	7.00%	4.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Pennarossa	6.00%	33.00%	33.00%	15.00%	11.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Fiorentino	3.00%	8.00%	16.00%	22.00%	16.00%	19.00%	16.00%	—
Juvenes Dogana	21.00%	34.00%	19.00%	14.00%	8.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Domagnano	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	27.00%	22.00%	26.00%	11.00%	—
Virtus	4.00%	3.00%	7.00%	16.00%	34.00%	20.00%	16.00%	—
Libertas	1.00%	6.00%	23.00%	32.00%	21.00%	13.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Murata	—	2.00%	1.00%	2.00%	16.00%	26.00%	53.00%	—
Cosmos	—	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	13.00%	30.00%	33.00%	14.00%
Cailungo	—	1.00%	7.00%	11.00%	13.00%	30.00%	28.00%	10.00%
Faetano	4.00%	1.00%	9.00%	20.00%	32.00%	14.00%	14.00%	6.00%
San Giovanni	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	9.00%	20.00%	69.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level
Cailungo	92.00%
Cosmos	95.00%
Domagnano	86.00%
Faetano	86.00%
Fiorentino	73.00%
Folgore Falciano	—
Juvenes Dogana	—
La Fiorita	—
Libertas	70.00%
Murata	97.00%
Pennarossa	—
San Giovanni	100%
Tre Fiori	—
Tre Penne	—
Virtus	86.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo			100.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%							0.0%2.00%
Cosmos						0.0%1.00%						0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%
Domagnano	0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%			33.3%9.00%	20.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%		14.3%7.00%
Faetano			100.0%1.00%		33.3%3.00%	20.0%5.00%						0.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Fiorentino	100.0%1.00%			66.7%3.00%			66.7%6.00%	0.0%2.00%	40.0%5.00%		40.0%15.00%
Folgore Falciano	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%		80.0%5.00%			62.5%8.00%	80.0%5.00%	87.5%8.00%		76.5%17.00%
Juvenes Dogana			66.7%9.00%		33.3%6.00%	37.5%8.00%						50.0%16.00%	40.0%15.00%	75.0%4.00%
La Fiorita			80.0%5.00%		100.0%2.00%	20.0%5.00%				100.0%1.00%		57.1%7.00%	66.7%3.00%	100.0%1.00%
Libertas			0.0%1.00%		60.0%5.00%	12.5%8.00%						50.0%6.00%	25.0%8.00%
Murata								0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa			85.7%7.00%		60.0%15.00%	23.5%17.00%				100.0%1.00%		40.0%15.00%	33.3%12.00%	50.0%2.00%
Tre Fiori		100.0%1.00%		100.0%2.00%			50.0%16.00%	42.9%7.00%	50.0%6.00%		60.0%15.00%
Tre Penne	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		100.0%1.00%			60.0%15.00%	33.3%3.00%	75.0%8.00%		66.7%12.00%
Virtus				0.0%1.00%			25.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%			50.0%2.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo							0.0%1.00%
Domagnano				100.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%		66.7%3.00%	100.0%1.00%		33.3%3.00%	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Faetano					0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%
Fiorentino		0.0%1.00%			0.0%3.00%	100.0%3.00%	60.0%5.00%		0.0%1.00%	75.0%4.00%	0.0%4.00%
Folgore Falciano		100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%3.00%		46.2%13.00%	53.3%15.00%	100.0%1.00%	66.7%6.00%	50.0%6.00%	28.6%14.00%	50.0%2.00%
Juvenes Dogana				0.0%3.00%	53.8%13.00%		42.9%14.00%		50.0%2.00%	0.0%8.00%	20.0%5.00%
La Fiorita	100.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	40.0%5.00%	46.7%15.00%	57.1%14.00%		100.0%3.00%	84.6%13.00%	63.6%11.00%	36.4%22.00%
Libertas		0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%		0.0%3.00%		40.0%5.00%		0.0%3.00%
Pennarossa			100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	33.3%6.00%	50.0%2.00%	15.4%13.00%	60.0%5.00%		50.0%6.00%	0.0%3.00%
Tre Fiori		66.7%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	25.0%4.00%	50.0%6.00%	100.0%8.00%	36.4%11.00%		50.0%6.00%		36.4%11.00%
Tre Penne		100.0%1.00%		100.0%4.00%	71.4%14.00%	80.0%5.00%	63.6%22.00%	100.0%3.00%	100.0%3.00%	63.6%11.00%
Virtus		0.0%1.00%			50.0%2.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Domagnano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo
Domagnano			0.0%1.00%		33.3%3.00%				0.0%2.00%
Faetano
Fiorentino			100.0%2.00%		66.7%3.00%	100.0%1.00%			0.0%3.00%
Folgore Falciano	100.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%		100.0%2.00%	55.6%9.00%		66.7%3.00%	60.0%5.00%	27.3%11.00%
Juvenes Dogana			0.0%2.00%		0.0%5.00%			50.0%2.00%	33.3%6.00%
La Fiorita	66.7%3.00%	33.3%3.00%	44.4%9.00%	100.0%5.00%		100.0%1.00%	50.0%4.00%	60.0%10.00%	21.4%14.00%
Libertas		0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%
Pennarossa			33.3%3.00%		50.0%4.00%			33.3%3.00%	66.7%3.00%
Tre Fiori			40.0%5.00%	50.0%2.00%	40.0%10.00%		66.7%3.00%		66.7%6.00%
Tre Penne	100.0%2.00%	100.0%3.00%	72.7%11.00%	66.7%6.00%	78.6%14.00%		33.3%3.00%	33.3%6.00%		100.0%1.00%
Virtus									0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Finals
Tre Penne	100%	100%	34.93%
Folgore Falciano	85.76%	39.68%	21.80%
La Fiorita	100%	59.08%	20.22%
Tre Fiori	75.93%	25.49%	9.33%
Pennarossa	48.49%	17.69%	8.05%
Juvenes Dogana	58.32%	16.96%	5.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne
Folgore Falciano				63.9%134.25%
Juvenes Dogana					43.4%134.25%
La Fiorita						38.6%268.49%
Pennarossa	36.1%134.25%
Tre Fiori		56.6%134.25%
Tre Penne			61.4%268.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne
Folgore Falciano			53.9%33.86%			41.3%51.90%
Juvenes Dogana			33.2%22.31%			26.5%36.00%
La Fiorita	46.1%33.86%	66.8%22.31%		59.4%18.66%	60.9%28.69%
Pennarossa			40.6%18.66%			33.9%29.83%
Tre Fiori			39.1%28.69%			30.2%47.24%
Tre Penne	58.7%51.90%	73.5%36.00%		66.1%29.83%	69.8%47.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Pennarossa	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne
Folgore Falciano		68.8%5.38%	54.1%9.50%		61.8%7.97%	47.7%16.82%
Juvenes Dogana	31.2%5.38%		36.1%3.24%	37.9%2.44%		32.1%5.89%
La Fiorita	45.9%9.50%	63.9%3.24%		53.1%4.55%	60.3%5.07%	42.7%19.45%
Pennarossa		62.1%2.44%	46.9%4.55%		53.7%3.48%	35.1%7.22%
Tre Fiori	38.2%7.97%		39.7%5.07%	46.3%3.48%		29.6%8.97%
Tre Penne	52.3%16.82%	67.9%5.89%	57.3%19.45%	64.9%7.22%	70.4%8.97%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2015-09-11	Faetano	L 0-1	36.6	729	834	26.59%	19.19%	54.22%	-0.79	-12.3	0
2015-09-11	@ San Giovanni	W 1-0	36.6	834	729	54.22%	19.19%	26.59%	+0.79	+12.3	3
2015-09-12	La Fiorita	L 0-2	38.1	876	864	41.99%	19.40%	38.61%	-0.01	-33.9	0
2015-09-12	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 2-0	38.1	864	876	38.61%	19.40%	41.99%	+0.01	+33.9	3
2015-09-12	Tre Penne	L 0-1	46.8	894	727	60.99%	18.86%	20.15%	+1.02	-25.2	0
2015-09-12	@ Folgore Falciano	W 1-0	46.8	727	894	20.15%	18.86%	60.99%	-1.02	+25.2	3
2015-09-12	Virtus	W 2-0	36.1	804	770	45.18%	19.38%	35.44%	+0.14	+29.6	3
2015-09-12	@ Domagnano	L 0-2	36.1	770	804	35.44%	19.38%	45.18%	-0.14	-29.6	0
2015-09-13	Cosmos	W 2-1	42.0	813	712	53.73%	19.20%	27.07%	+0.58	+11.8	3
2015-09-13	@ Cailungo	L 1-2	42.0	712	813	27.07%	19.20%	53.73%	-0.58	-11.8	0
2015-09-13	Fiorentino	W 1-0	39.1	842	802	45.94%	19.37%	34.69%	+0.18	+15.4	3
2015-09-13	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-1	39.1	802	842	34.69%	19.37%	45.94%	-0.18	-15.4	0
2015-09-13	Libertas	D 1-1	54.1	831	825	41.15%	19.40%	39.45%	-0.05	-0.2	1
2015-09-13	@ Pennarossa	D 1-1	54.1	825	831	39.45%	19.40%	41.15%	+0.05	+0.2	1
2015-09-19	Cailungo	D 1-1	54.1	825	825	40.34%	19.40%	40.26%	-0.09	-0.0	2
2015-09-19	@ Libertas	D 1-1	54.1	825	825	40.26%	19.40%	40.34%	+0.09	+0.0	4
2015-09-19	Faetano	L 1-2	40.5	700	846	22.16%	18.99%	58.85%	-1.06	-9.9	0
2015-09-19	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	40.5	846	700	58.85%	18.99%	22.16%	+1.06	+9.9	6
2015-09-19	Pennarossa	W 1-0	38.0	898	831	49.63%	19.31%	31.06%	+0.36	+14.1	6
2015-09-19	@ La Fiorita	L 0-1	38.0	831	898	31.06%	19.31%	49.63%	-0.36	-14.0	1
2015-09-19	Tre Penne	L 0-3	36.8	786	752	45.08%	19.38%	35.54%	+0.14	-52.3	0
2015-09-19	@ Fiorentino	W 3-0	36.8	752	786	35.54%	19.38%	45.08%	-0.14	+52.3	6
2015-09-20	Domagnano	L 0-2	34.8	766	834	31.08%	19.31%	49.60%	-0.54	-26.5	0
2015-09-20	@ Murata	W 2-0	34.8	834	766	49.60%	19.31%	31.08%	+0.54	+26.5	6
2015-09-20	Folgore Falciano	D 1-1	54.2	740	869	23.95%	19.08%	56.97%	-0.95	+3.2	1
2015-09-20	@ Virtus	D 1-1	54.2	869	740	56.97%	19.08%	23.95%	+0.95	-3.2	1
2015-09-20	San Giovanni	W 2-0	32.7	842	717	56.62%	19.09%	24.29%	+0.75	+21.5	3
2015-09-20	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-2	32.7	717	842	24.29%	19.09%	56.62%	-0.75	-21.5	0
2015-09-25	Murata	W 2-1	41.1	865	740	56.66%	19.09%	24.25%	+0.75	+10.7	4
2015-09-25	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	41.1	740	865	24.25%	19.09%	56.66%	-0.75	-10.7	0
2015-09-26	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	38.8	816	864	33.73%	19.36%	46.91%	-0.41	-15.1	1
2015-09-26	@ Pennarossa	W 1-0	38.8	864	816	46.91%	19.36%	33.73%	+0.41	+15.1	6
2015-09-26	La Fiorita	L 1-3	35.7	691	912	15.51%	18.45%	66.04%	-1.57	-12.4	0
2015-09-26	@ Cosmos	W 3-1	35.7	912	691	66.04%	18.45%	15.51%	+1.57	+12.4	9
2015-09-26	Libertas	L 0-3	30.4	695	825	23.86%	19.07%	57.07%	-0.95	-30.7	0
2015-09-26	@ San Giovanni	W 3-0	30.4	825	695	57.07%	19.07%	23.86%	+0.95	+30.7	5
2015-09-27	Cailungo	W 2-1	44.7	856	825	44.76%	19.38%	35.86%	+0.12	+14.9	9
2015-09-27	@ Faetano	L 1-2	44.7	825	856	35.86%	19.38%	44.76%	-0.12	-14.9	4
2015-09-27	Tre Fiori	L 2-4	48.0	860	857	40.74%	19.40%	39.85%	-0.07	-25.7	6
2015-09-27	@ Domagnano	W 4-2	48.0	857	860	39.85%	19.40%	40.74%	+0.07	+25.7	6
2015-09-27	Virtus	W 3-1	40.9	805	743	48.79%	19.33%	31.88%	+0.32	+23.5	9
2015-09-27	@ Tre Penne	L 1-3	40.9	743	805	31.88%	19.33%	48.79%	-0.32	-23.5	1
2015-10-03	Cailungo	W 5-0	30.7	925	810	55.44%	19.14%	25.42%	+0.68	+52.2	12
2015-10-03	@ La Fiorita	L 0-5	30.7	810	925	25.42%	19.14%	55.44%	-0.68	-52.2	4
2015-10-03	Cosmos	D 2-2	60.2	879	678	64.21%	18.62%	17.16%	+1.25	-3.5	7
2015-10-03	@ Juvenes Dogana	D 2-2	60.2	678	879	17.16%	18.62%	64.21%	-1.25	+3.5	1
2015-10-03	Fiorentino	W 3-2	52.2	720	734	38.28%	19.40%	42.32%	-0.18	+16.2	4
2015-10-03	@ Virtus	L 2-3	52.2	734	720	42.32%	19.40%	38.28%	+0.18	-16.2	0
2015-10-03	Pennarossa	L 1-4	35.7	665	801	23.10%	19.04%	57.87%	-1.00	-25.2	0
2015-10-03	@ San Giovanni	W 4-1	35.7	801	665	57.87%	19.04%	23.10%	+1.00	+25.2	4
2015-10-04	Faetano	W 2-0	38.2	856	871	38.09%	19.40%	42.52%	-0.19	+34.3	8
2015-10-04	@ Libertas	L 0-2	38.2	871	856	42.52%	19.40%	38.09%	+0.19	-34.3	9
2015-10-04	Folgore Falciano	L 0-2	35.8	835	876	34.50%	19.37%	46.13%	-0.37	-28.9	6
2015-10-04	@ Domagnano	W 2-0	35.8	876	835	46.13%	19.37%	34.50%	+0.37	+28.9	7
2015-10-04	Murata	W 4-1	35.1	883	729	59.70%	18.94%	21.36%	+0.94	+23.5	9
2015-10-04	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-4	35.1	729	883	21.36%	18.94%	59.70%	-0.94	-23.5	0
2015-10-16	Pennarossa	D 1-1	54.2	682	827	22.25%	18.99%	58.76%	-1.06	+3.5	2
2015-10-16	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	54.2	827	682	58.76%	18.99%	22.25%	+1.06	-3.6	5
2015-10-17	Fiorentino	L 1-3	42.9	705	718	38.54%	19.40%	42.06%	-0.17	-27.4	0
2015-10-17	@ Murata	W 3-1	42.9	718	705	42.06%	19.40%	38.54%	+0.17	+27.4	3
2015-10-17	San Giovanni	L 0-1	45.3	757	640	55.76%	19.13%	25.11%	+0.70	-23.1	4
2015-10-17	@ Cailungo	W 1-0	45.3	640	757	25.11%	19.13%	55.76%	-0.70	+23.1	3
2015-10-17	Tre Fiori	L 1-2	46.0	905	906	40.12%	19.40%	40.47%	-0.10	-16.4	7
2015-10-17	@ Folgore Falciano	W 2-1	46.0	906	905	40.47%	19.40%	40.12%	+0.10	+16.4	12
2015-10-18	Domagnano	W 2-0	36.6	828	806	43.48%	19.39%	37.13%	+0.06	+30.7	12
2015-10-18	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	36.6	806	828	37.13%	19.39%	43.48%	-0.06	-30.7	6
2015-10-18	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	45.4	890	875	42.37%	19.40%	38.23%	+0.01	+15.7	11
2015-10-18	@ Libertas	L 1-2	45.4	875	890	38.23%	19.40%	42.37%	-0.01	-15.7	7
2015-10-18	La Fiorita	D 0-0	50.2	837	977	22.73%	19.02%	58.25%	-1.03	+3.8	10
2015-10-18	@ Faetano	D 0-0	50.2	977	837	58.25%	19.02%	22.73%	+1.03	-3.8	13
2015-10-24	Faetano	W 3-1	42.6	860	841	43.00%	19.40%	37.61%	+0.04	+26.9	10
2015-10-24	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 1-3	42.6	841	860	37.61%	19.40%	43.00%	-0.04	-26.9	10
2015-10-24	Libertas	D 0-0	50.3	685	906	15.62%	18.47%	65.92%	-1.56	+5.6	3
2015-10-24	@ Cosmos	D 0-0	50.3	906	685	65.92%	18.47%	15.62%	+1.56	-5.6	12
2015-10-24	San Giovanni	W 5-0	25.6	973	663	72.38%	17.60%	10.01%	+1.98	+22.0	16
2015-10-24	@ La Fiorita	L 0-5	25.6	663	973	10.01%	17.60%	72.38%	-1.98	-22.0	3
2015-10-24	Tre Fiori	L 0-1	38.1	859	923	31.57%	19.32%	49.11%	-0.52	-14.2	12
2015-10-24	@ Tre Penne	W 1-0	38.1	923	859	49.11%	19.32%	31.57%	+0.52	+14.2	15
2015-10-25	Cailungo	D 0-0	50.1	823	734	52.27%	19.25%	28.49%	+0.50	-2.5	6
2015-10-25	@ Pennarossa	D 0-0	50.1	734	823	28.49%	19.25%	52.27%	-0.50	+2.5	5
2015-10-25	Folgore Falciano	W 2-1	51.4	745	889	22.39%	19.00%	58.61%	-1.05	+22.8	6
2015-10-25	@ Fiorentino	L 1-2	51.4	889	745	58.61%	19.00%	22.39%	+1.05	-22.8	7
2015-10-25	Murata	L 0-1	43.2	736	678	48.33%	19.34%	32.33%	+0.30	-20.3	4
2015-10-25	@ Virtus	W 1-0	43.2	678	736	32.33%	19.34%	48.33%	-0.30	+20.3	3
2015-10-30	Domagnano	L 1-2	45.7	768	775	39.29%	19.40%	41.31%	-0.14	-16.1	6
2015-10-30	@ Fiorentino	W 2-1	45.7	775	768	41.31%	19.40%	39.29%	+0.14	+16.1	9
2015-10-31	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-3	29.7	737	887	21.79%	18.96%	59.25%	-1.09	-28.3	5
2015-10-31	@ Cailungo	W 3-0	29.7	887	737	59.25%	18.96%	21.79%	+1.09	+28.3	13
2015-10-31	Libertas	W 4-0	30.9	995	900	53.07%	19.22%	27.70%	+0.55	+45.6	19
2015-10-31	@ La Fiorita	L 0-4	30.9	900	995	27.70%	19.22%	53.07%	-0.55	-45.6	12
2015-10-31	Pennarossa	L 0-1	40.5	814	821	39.33%	19.40%	41.26%	-0.14	-17.1	10
2015-10-31	@ Faetano	W 1-0	40.5	821	814	41.26%	19.40%	39.33%	+0.14	+17.1	9
2015-11-01	Cosmos	L 1-2	43.9	641	691	33.36%	19.35%	47.29%	-0.42	-14.1	3
2015-11-01	@ San Giovanni	W 2-1	43.9	691	641	47.29%	19.35%	33.36%	+0.42	+14.1	6
2015-11-01	Tre Penne	L 1-4	35.4	698	845	22.12%	18.98%	58.90%	-1.07	-24.2	3
2015-11-01	@ Murata	W 4-1	35.4	845	698	58.90%	18.98%	22.12%	+1.07	+24.2	15
2015-11-01	Virtus	D 2-2	60.2	937	716	65.98%	18.46%	15.56%	+1.39	-3.8	16
2015-11-01	@ Tre Fiori	D 2-2	60.2	716	937	15.56%	18.46%	65.98%	-1.39	+3.8	5
2015-11-07	Cailungo	W 2-0	35.8	752	709	46.37%	19.37%	34.26%	+0.20	+28.8	9
2015-11-07	@ Fiorentino	L 0-2	35.8	709	752	34.26%	19.37%	46.37%	-0.20	-28.8	5
2015-11-07	Domagnano	D 2-2	60.0	838	791	46.80%	19.36%	33.83%	+0.22	-0.9	10
2015-11-07	@ Pennarossa	D 2-2	60.0	791	838	33.83%	19.36%	46.80%	-0.22	+0.9	10
2015-11-07	Faetano	W 2-0	34.6	869	797	50.17%	19.30%	30.53%	+0.39	+26.1	18
2015-11-07	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	34.6	797	869	30.53%	19.30%	50.17%	-0.39	-26.1	10
2015-11-07	Juvenes Dogana	W 3-2	53.6	866	915	33.51%	19.36%	47.13%	-0.42	+17.8	10
2015-11-07	@ Folgore Falciano	L 2-3	53.6	915	866	47.13%	19.36%	33.51%	+0.42	-17.8	13
2015-11-08	La Fiorita	W 3-1	53.3	674	1041	7.53%	16.95%	75.52%	-2.54	+50.7	6
2015-11-08	@ Murata	L 1-3	53.3	1041	674	75.52%	16.95%	7.53%	+2.54	-50.7	19
2015-11-08	Libertas	W 1-0	37.6	933	854	51.03%	19.28%	29.69%	+0.44	+13.5	19
2015-11-08	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-1	37.6	854	933	29.69%	19.28%	51.03%	-0.44	-13.5	12
2015-11-08	Virtus	L 1-2	45.4	705	719	38.22%	19.40%	42.38%	-0.19	-15.7	6
2015-11-08	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	45.4	719	705	42.38%	19.40%	38.22%	+0.19	+15.7	8
2015-11-20	La Fiorita	W 4-3	62.9	735	990	13.20%	18.16%	68.64%	-1.79	+24.7	11
2015-11-20	@ Virtus	L 3-4	62.9	990	735	68.64%	18.16%	13.20%	+1.79	-24.7	19
2015-11-21	Tre Fiori	W 4-1	49.3	680	947	12.45%	18.05%	69.50%	-1.87	+66.2	8
2015-11-21	@ Cailungo	L 1-4	49.3	947	680	69.50%	18.05%	12.45%	+1.87	-66.2	19
2015-11-21	Tre Penne	L 0-6	27.2	627	895	12.36%	18.04%	69.60%	-1.88	-32.1	3
2015-11-21	@ San Giovanni	W 6-0	27.2	895	627	69.60%	18.04%	12.36%	+1.88	+32.1	21
2015-11-22	Domagnano	D 2-2	60.0	897	792	54.26%	19.19%	26.55%	+0.61	-2.0	14
2015-11-22	@ Juvenes Dogana	D 2-2	60.0	792	897	26.55%	19.19%	54.26%	-0.61	+2.0	11
2015-11-22	Faetano	W 3-1	39.0	884	771	55.20%	19.15%	25.65%	+0.66	+19.5	13
2015-11-22	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-3	39.0	771	884	25.65%	19.15%	55.20%	-0.66	-19.5	10
2015-11-22	Pennarossa	L 0-1	38.4	781	837	32.58%	19.34%	48.08%	-0.46	-14.6	9
2015-11-22	@ Fiorentino	W 1-0	38.4	837	781	48.08%	19.34%	32.58%	+0.46	+14.6	13
2015-11-25	Murata	L 1-2	50.5	841	725	55.54%	19.14%	25.32%	+0.68	-21.7	12
2015-11-25	@ Libertas	W 2-1	50.5	725	841	25.32%	19.14%	55.54%	-0.68	+21.7	9
2015-11-28	Fiorentino	L 1-3	37.1	595	766	19.70%	18.83%	61.47%	-1.23	-15.4	3
2015-11-28	@ San Giovanni	W 3-1	37.1	766	595	61.47%	18.83%	19.70%	+1.23	+15.4	12
2015-11-28	Folgore Falciano	D 1-1	54.1	965	903	48.90%	19.33%	31.77%	+0.33	-1.6	20
2015-11-28	@ La Fiorita	D 1-1	54.1	903	965	31.77%	19.33%	48.90%	-0.33	+1.6	14
2015-11-28	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	51.6	746	895	21.88%	18.97%	59.15%	-1.08	+23.0	12
2015-11-28	@ Murata	L 1-2	51.6	895	746	59.15%	18.97%	21.88%	+1.08	-23.0	14
2015-11-28	Tre Fiori	L 1-3	36.5	689	880	17.95%	18.69%	63.36%	-1.37	-14.2	6
2015-11-28	@ Cosmos	W 3-1	36.5	880	689	63.36%	18.69%	17.95%	+1.37	+14.2	22
2015-11-29	Cailungo	W 3-0	33.4	794	746	47.00%	19.36%	33.64%	+0.23	+41.1	14
2015-11-29	@ Domagnano	L 0-3	33.4	746	794	33.64%	19.36%	47.00%	-0.23	-41.1	8
2015-11-29	Pennarossa	D 1-1	54.1	927	851	50.63%	19.29%	30.08%	+0.41	-1.9	22
2015-11-29	@ Tre Penne	D 1-1	54.1	851	927	30.08%	19.29%	50.63%	-0.41	+1.9	14
2015-11-29	Virtus	D 1-1	54.1	819	760	48.50%	19.33%	32.16%	+0.30	-1.5	13
2015-11-29	@ Libertas	D 1-1	54.1	760	819	32.16%	19.33%	48.50%	-0.30	+1.5	12
2015-12-05	Domagnano	W 4-2	42.9	964	835	56.99%	19.08%	23.93%	+0.77	+16.4	23
2015-12-05	@ La Fiorita	L 2-4	42.9	835	964	23.93%	19.08%	56.99%	-0.77	-16.4	14
2015-12-05	Fiorentino	D 0-0	50.1	675	781	26.39%	19.18%	54.43%	-0.80	+3.0	7
2015-12-05	@ Cosmos	D 0-0	50.1	781	675	54.43%	19.18%	26.39%	+0.80	-3.0	13
2015-12-05	San Giovanni	W 4-0	28.1	761	579	62.52%	18.76%	18.73%	+1.13	+32.3	15
2015-12-05	@ Virtus	L 0-4	28.1	579	761	18.73%	18.76%	62.52%	-1.13	-32.3	3
2015-12-05	Tre Penne	L 1-2	38.4	705	925	15.64%	18.47%	65.90%	-1.56	-7.2	8
2015-12-05	@ Cailungo	W 2-1	38.4	925	705	65.90%	18.47%	15.64%	+1.56	+7.2	25
2015-12-06	Folgore Falciano	L 0-4	31.2	818	905	28.67%	19.25%	52.08%	-0.67	-47.0	13
2015-12-06	@ Libertas	W 4-0	31.2	905	818	52.08%	19.25%	28.67%	+0.67	+47.0	17
2015-12-06	Juvenes Dogana	L 1-2	47.0	895	872	43.51%	19.39%	37.10%	+0.06	-17.5	22
2015-12-06	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-1	47.0	872	895	37.10%	19.39%	43.51%	-0.06	+17.5	17
2015-12-06	Murata	L 0-2	36.8	751	770	37.68%	19.40%	42.92%	-0.21	-31.1	10
2015-12-06	@ Faetano	W 2-0	36.8	770	751	42.92%	19.40%	37.68%	+0.21	+31.1	15
2015-12-12	Cailungo	L 3-5	54.0	801	698	54.01%	19.19%	26.80%	+0.60	-31.0	15
2015-12-12	@ Murata	W 5-3	54.0	698	801	26.80%	19.19%	54.01%	-0.60	+31.0	11
2015-12-12	Faetano	W 2-1	40.1	877	720	60.03%	18.92%	21.05%	+0.96	+9.5	25
2015-12-12	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-2	40.1	720	877	21.05%	18.92%	60.03%	-0.96	-9.4	10
2015-12-12	Libertas	D 1-1	54.1	819	771	47.01%	19.36%	33.63%	+0.23	-1.2	15
2015-12-12	@ Domagnano	D 1-1	54.1	771	819	33.63%	19.36%	47.01%	-0.23	+1.2	14
2015-12-12	San Giovanni	W 4-1	29.8	952	547	77.33%	16.47%	6.20%	+2.61	+7.1	20
2015-12-12	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-4	29.8	547	952	6.20%	16.47%	77.33%	-2.61	-7.1	3
2015-12-13	Cosmos	D 2-2	60.3	932	678	68.59%	18.17%	13.24%	+1.61	-4.2	26
2015-12-13	@ Tre Penne	D 2-2	60.3	678	932	13.24%	18.17%	68.59%	-1.61	+4.2	8
2015-12-13	La Fiorita	W 2-1	53.0	778	980	17.08%	18.61%	64.31%	-1.44	+25.0	16
2015-12-13	@ Fiorentino	L 1-2	53.0	980	778	64.31%	18.61%	17.08%	+1.44	-25.0	23
2015-12-13	Virtus	D 0-0	50.1	853	794	48.54%	19.33%	32.12%	+0.31	-1.7	15
2015-12-13	@ Pennarossa	D 0-0	50.1	794	853	32.12%	19.33%	48.54%	-0.31	+1.7	16
2016-02-06	Murata	D 1-1	54.1	682	770	28.62%	19.25%	52.13%	-0.67	+2.2	9
2016-02-06	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	54.1	770	682	52.13%	19.25%	28.62%	+0.67	-2.2	16
2016-02-06	Tre Fiori	L 0-2	36.1	852	887	35.37%	19.38%	45.25%	-0.32	-29.5	15
2016-02-06	@ Pennarossa	W 2-0	36.1	887	852	45.25%	19.38%	35.37%	+0.32	+29.5	28
2016-02-06	Tre Penne	L 0-3	36.6	955	928	44.15%	19.39%	36.46%	+0.09	-51.4	23
2016-02-06	@ La Fiorita	W 3-0	36.6	928	955	36.46%	19.39%	44.15%	-0.09	+51.4	29
2016-02-06	Virtus	L 2-4	44.5	711	795	28.95%	19.26%	51.79%	-0.66	-19.3	10
2016-02-06	@ Faetano	W 4-2	44.5	795	711	51.79%	19.26%	28.95%	+0.66	+19.3	19
2016-02-07	Domagnano	L 2-5	35.1	540	817	11.79%	17.94%	70.26%	-1.94	-11.7	3
2016-02-07	@ San Giovanni	W 5-2	35.1	817	540	70.26%	17.94%	11.79%	+1.94	+11.7	18
2016-02-07	Fiorentino	L 0-2	41.0	890	803	51.95%	19.26%	28.80%	+0.48	-40.8	17
2016-02-07	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 2-0	41.0	803	890	28.80%	19.26%	51.95%	-0.48	+40.8	19
2016-02-07	Folgore Falciano	L 1-5	31.3	729	959	14.89%	18.38%	66.72%	-1.63	-21.8	11
2016-02-07	@ Cailungo	W 5-1	31.3	959	729	66.72%	18.38%	14.89%	+1.63	+21.8	23
2016-02-13	Faetano	W 1-0	35.5	829	691	58.00%	19.03%	22.97%	+0.83	+10.8	21
2016-02-13	@ Domagnano	L 0-1	35.5	691	829	22.97%	19.03%	58.00%	-0.83	-10.8	10
2016-02-13	Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	36.7	684	981	10.75%	17.75%	71.49%	-2.07	-5.1	9
2016-02-13	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	36.7	981	684	71.49%	17.75%	10.75%	+2.07	+5.0	26
2016-02-13	Juvenes Dogana	D 1-1	54.2	979	849	57.21%	19.07%	23.73%	+0.78	-3.2	30
2016-02-13	@ Tre Penne	D 1-1	54.2	849	979	23.73%	19.07%	57.21%	-0.78	+3.2	18
2016-02-13	Libertas	W 1-0	37.8	844	772	50.22%	19.30%	30.48%	+0.39	+13.8	22
2016-02-13	@ Fiorentino	L 0-1	37.8	772	844	30.48%	19.30%	50.22%	-0.39	-13.8	14
2016-02-14	Pennarossa	D 3-3	64.4	767	822	32.77%	19.34%	47.89%	-0.45	+0.9	17
2016-02-14	@ Murata	D 3-3	64.4	822	767	47.89%	19.34%	32.77%	+0.45	-0.9	16
2016-02-14	San Giovanni	W 3-1	32.6	916	528	76.56%	16.68%	6.75%	+2.50	+5.5	31
2016-02-14	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-3	32.6	528	916	6.75%	16.68%	76.56%	-2.50	-5.5	3
2016-02-14	Virtus	L 1-4	36.6	707	815	26.23%	19.17%	54.60%	-0.81	-28.1	11
2016-02-14	@ Cailungo	W 4-1	36.6	815	707	54.60%	19.17%	26.23%	+0.81	+28.1	22
2016-02-20	Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	39.9	821	986	20.35%	18.87%	60.78%	-1.19	-9.2	16
2016-02-20	@ Pennarossa	W 2-1	39.9	986	821	60.78%	18.87%	20.35%	+1.19	+9.2	29
2016-02-20	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	46.4	843	852	38.99%	19.40%	41.61%	-0.15	+16.9	25
2016-02-20	@ Virtus	L 1-2	46.4	852	843	41.61%	19.40%	38.99%	+0.15	-16.8	18
2016-02-20	Murata	L 0-4	26.5	522	768	13.80%	18.25%	67.95%	-1.73	-24.3	3
2016-02-20	@ San Giovanni	W 4-0	26.5	768	522	67.95%	18.25%	13.80%	+1.73	+24.3	20
2016-02-20	Tre Fiori	W 2-0	38.3	904	922	37.76%	19.40%	42.84%	-0.21	+34.5	26
2016-02-20	@ La Fiorita	L 0-2	38.3	922	904	42.84%	19.40%	37.76%	+0.21	-34.5	31
2016-02-21	Domagnano	W 3-1	49.3	679	840	20.71%	18.90%	60.39%	-1.16	+40.7	12
2016-02-21	@ Cosmos	L 1-3	49.3	840	679	60.39%	18.90%	20.71%	+1.16	-40.7	21
2016-02-21	Faetano	D 2-2	60.1	858	680	62.08%	18.79%	19.14%	+1.10	-3.1	23
2016-02-21	@ Fiorentino	D 2-2	60.1	680	858	19.14%	18.79%	62.08%	-1.10	+3.1	11
2016-02-21	Tre Penne	L 0-3	27.8	758	976	15.79%	18.48%	65.73%	-1.55	-21.1	14
2016-02-21	@ Libertas	W 3-0	27.8	976	758	65.73%	18.48%	15.79%	+1.55	+21.1	33
2016-02-27	Cailungo	L 1-2	47.8	720	679	46.10%	19.37%	34.53%	+0.19	-18.4	12
2016-02-27	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	47.8	679	720	34.53%	19.37%	46.10%	-0.19	+18.4	14
2016-02-27	Domagnano	L 1-2	48.5	860	799	48.66%	19.33%	32.01%	+0.31	-19.2	25
2016-02-27	@ Virtus	W 2-1	48.5	799	860	32.01%	19.33%	48.66%	-0.31	+19.2	24
2016-02-27	Pennarossa	L 0-1	37.7	737	812	30.15%	19.29%	50.56%	-0.59	-13.7	14
2016-02-27	@ Libertas	W 1-0	37.7	812	737	50.56%	19.29%	30.15%	+0.59	+13.7	19
2016-02-27	Tre Fiori	W 3-1	44.8	855	887	35.77%	19.38%	44.85%	-0.31	+31.1	26
2016-02-27	@ Fiorentino	L 1-3	44.8	887	855	44.85%	19.38%	35.77%	+0.31	-31.1	31
2016-02-28	Folgore Falciano	W 2-0	37.5	997	995	40.66%	19.40%	39.94%	-0.07	+32.6	36
2016-02-28	@ Tre Penne	L 0-2	37.5	995	997	39.94%	19.40%	40.66%	+0.07	-32.6	29
2016-02-28	Juvenes Dogana	W 3-2	47.5	938	835	54.03%	19.19%	26.77%	+0.60	+11.1	29
2016-02-28	@ La Fiorita	L 2-3	47.5	835	938	26.77%	19.19%	54.03%	-0.60	-11.1	18
2016-02-28	San Giovanni	D 1-1	54.3	684	498	62.81%	18.73%	18.45%	+1.15	-4.4	12
2016-02-28	@ Faetano	D 1-1	54.3	498	684	18.45%	18.73%	62.81%	-1.15	+4.4	4
2016-03-05	Fiorentino	W 3-0	29.9	1030	886	58.65%	19.00%	22.35%	+0.87	+29.0	39
2016-03-05	@ Tre Penne	L 0-3	29.9	886	1030	22.35%	19.00%	58.65%	-0.87	-29.0	26
2016-03-05	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-4	24.9	502	824	9.47%	17.48%	73.05%	-2.24	-16.9	4
2016-03-05	@ San Giovanni	W 4-0	24.9	824	502	73.05%	17.48%	9.47%	+2.24	+16.9	21
2016-03-05	Murata	W 2-1	44.9	818	793	43.96%	19.39%	36.65%	+0.08	+15.2	27
2016-03-05	@ Domagnano	L 1-2	44.9	793	818	36.65%	19.39%	43.96%	-0.08	-15.2	20
2016-03-05	Virtus	W 3-2	46.8	962	840	56.21%	19.11%	24.68%	+0.72	+10.3	32
2016-03-05	@ Folgore Falciano	L 2-3	46.8	840	962	24.68%	19.11%	56.21%	-0.72	-10.3	25
2016-03-06	Cosmos	D 0-0	50.0	679	702	37.11%	19.39%	43.50%	-0.24	+0.6	13
2016-03-06	@ Faetano	D 0-0	50.0	702	679	43.50%	19.39%	37.11%	+0.24	-0.6	13
2016-03-06	La Fiorita	W 2-1	50.8	826	949	24.47%	19.10%	56.42%	-0.92	+22.0	22
2016-03-06	@ Pennarossa	L 1-2	50.8	949	826	56.42%	19.10%	24.47%	+0.92	-22.0	29
2016-03-06	Libertas	L 0-4	33.7	697	723	36.61%	19.39%	44.00%	-0.26	-57.6	14
2016-03-06	@ Cailungo	W 4-0	33.7	723	697	44.00%	19.39%	36.61%	+0.26	+57.6	17
2016-03-12	Domagnano	W 2-0	36.6	856	834	43.48%	19.39%	37.12%	+0.06	+30.7	34
2016-03-12	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-2	36.6	834	856	37.12%	19.39%	43.48%	-0.06	-30.7	27
2016-03-12	Faetano	D 1-1	54.1	639	680	34.66%	19.37%	45.97%	-0.36	+1.0	15
2016-03-12	@ Cailungo	D 1-1	54.1	680	639	45.97%	19.37%	34.66%	+0.36	-1.0	14
2016-03-12	Folgore Falciano	D 3-3	64.7	777	973	17.63%	18.66%	63.71%	-1.39	+2.8	21
2016-03-12	@ Murata	D 3-3	64.7	973	777	63.71%	18.66%	17.63%	+1.39	-2.8	33
2016-03-12	Tre Penne	L 1-4	33.1	830	1059	15.00%	18.40%	66.61%	-1.62	-17.0	25
2016-03-12	@ Virtus	W 4-1	33.1	1059	830	66.61%	18.40%	15.00%	+1.62	+17.0	42
2016-03-13	Cosmos	W 5-0	27.4	927	701	66.41%	18.42%	15.17%	+1.42	+32.8	32
2016-03-13	@ La Fiorita	L 0-5	27.4	701	927	15.17%	18.42%	66.41%	-1.42	-32.8	13
2016-03-13	Pennarossa	L 0-1	40.5	841	848	39.33%	19.40%	41.26%	-0.14	-17.1	21
2016-03-13	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 1-0	40.5	848	841	41.26%	19.40%	39.33%	+0.14	+17.1	25
2016-03-13	San Giovanni	D 1-1	54.6	781	486	71.42%	17.77%	10.81%	+1.88	-6.2	18
2016-03-13	@ Libertas	D 1-1	54.6	486	781	10.81%	17.77%	71.42%	-1.88	+6.2	5
2016-03-19	Domagnano	L 1-2	52.1	970	803	61.00%	18.86%	20.14%	+1.02	-23.7	33
2016-03-19	@ Folgore Falciano	W 2-1	52.1	803	970	20.14%	18.86%	61.00%	-1.02	+23.7	30
2016-03-19	Libertas	L 0-1	36.9	679	775	27.64%	19.22%	53.14%	-0.73	-12.7	14
2016-03-19	@ Faetano	W 1-0	36.9	775	679	53.14%	19.22%	27.64%	+0.73	+12.7	21
2016-03-19	San Giovanni	W 4-0	24.1	865	492	75.83%	16.87%	7.30%	+2.40	+13.0	28
2016-03-19	@ Pennarossa	L 0-4	24.1	492	865	7.30%	16.87%	75.83%	-2.40	-13.0	5
2016-03-19	Tre Fiori	L 0-4	30.5	780	887	26.39%	19.18%	54.43%	-0.80	-43.8	21
2016-03-19	@ Murata	W 4-0	30.5	887	780	54.43%	19.18%	26.39%	+0.80	+43.8	37
2016-03-20	Juvenes Dogana	D 2-2	60.1	668	824	21.19%	18.93%	59.88%	-1.13	+2.8	14
2016-03-20	@ Cosmos	D 2-2	60.1	824	668	59.88%	18.93%	21.19%	+1.13	-2.8	22
2016-03-20	La Fiorita	L 0-6	26.2	640	960	9.56%	17.50%	72.94%	-2.22	-25.0	15
2016-03-20	@ Cailungo	W 6-0	26.2	960	640	72.94%	17.50%	9.56%	+2.22	+25.0	35
2016-03-20	Virtus	W 3-0	33.6	857	813	46.45%	19.37%	34.19%	+0.20	+41.7	29
2016-03-20	@ Fiorentino	L 0-3	33.6	813	857	34.19%	19.37%	46.45%	-0.20	-41.7	25
2016-04-02	Cosmos	W 3-1	36.1	878	671	64.75%	18.58%	16.67%	+1.29	+13.3	31
2016-04-02	@ Pennarossa	L 1-3	36.1	671	878	16.67%	18.58%	64.75%	-1.29	-13.3	14
2016-04-02	Faetano	W 4-1	31.2	985	666	72.90%	17.51%	9.59%	+2.04	+11.0	38
2016-04-02	@ La Fiorita	L 1-4	31.2	666	985	9.59%	17.51%	72.90%	-2.04	-11.0	14
2016-04-02	Libertas	W 2-1	44.6	821	787	45.07%	19.38%	35.55%	+0.14	+14.8	25
2016-04-02	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 1-2	44.6	787	821	35.55%	19.38%	45.07%	-0.14	-14.8	21
2016-04-02	Tre Penne	L 2-3	43.2	827	1076	13.58%	18.22%	68.21%	-1.75	-6.0	30
2016-04-02	@ Domagnano	W 3-2	43.2	1076	827	68.21%	18.22%	13.58%	+1.75	+6.0	45
2016-04-03	Cailungo	D 0-0	50.2	479	615	23.10%	19.04%	57.87%	-1.00	+3.8	6
2016-04-03	@ San Giovanni	D 0-0	50.2	615	479	57.87%	19.04%	23.10%	+1.00	-3.8	16
2016-04-03	Folgore Falciano	L 1-3	42.8	931	946	38.10%	19.40%	42.50%	-0.19	-27.2	37
2016-04-03	@ Tre Fiori	W 3-1	42.8	946	931	42.50%	19.40%	38.10%	+0.19	+27.2	36
2016-04-03	Murata	W 3-1	37.4	899	737	60.54%	18.89%	20.57%	+0.99	+16.0	32
2016-04-03	@ Fiorentino	L 1-3	37.4	737	899	20.57%	18.89%	60.54%	-0.99	-16.0	21
2016-04-09	Cosmos	W 2-1	41.5	772	658	55.39%	19.14%	25.47%	+0.68	+11.2	24
2016-04-09	@ Libertas	L 1-2	41.5	658	772	25.47%	19.14%	55.39%	-0.68	-11.2	14
2016-04-09	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	34.2	655	836	18.85%	18.77%	62.38%	-1.30	-9.1	14
2016-04-09	@ Faetano	W 1-0	34.2	836	655	62.38%	18.77%	18.85%	+1.30	+9.1	28
2016-04-09	La Fiorita	L 2-4	35.5	483	996	3.53%	14.97%	81.50%	-3.52	-2.5	6
2016-04-09	@ San Giovanni	W 4-2	35.5	996	483	81.50%	14.97%	3.53%	+3.52	+2.5	41
2016-04-09	Pennarossa	L 0-3	26.4	612	891	11.70%	17.93%	70.37%	-1.95	-15.9	16
2016-04-09	@ Cailungo	W 3-0	26.4	891	612	70.37%	17.93%	11.70%	+1.95	+15.9	34
2016-04-10	Fiorentino	W 3-0	33.0	973	915	48.39%	19.34%	32.27%	+0.30	+39.7	39
2016-04-10	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-3	33.0	915	973	32.27%	19.34%	48.39%	-0.30	-39.7	32
2016-04-10	Tre Penne	L 0-4	28.2	903	1082	19.06%	18.78%	62.15%	-1.28	-32.8	37
2016-04-10	@ Tre Fiori	W 4-0	28.2	1082	903	62.15%	18.78%	19.06%	+1.28	+32.8	48
2016-04-10	Virtus	L 2-5	42.0	720	771	33.25%	19.35%	47.40%	-0.43	-29.7	21
2016-04-10	@ Murata	W 5-2	42.0	771	720	47.40%	19.35%	33.25%	+0.43	+29.7	28
2016-04-16	Cailungo	W 2-0	29.2	845	596	68.20%	18.22%	13.58%	+1.57	+12.6	31
2016-04-16	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-2	29.2	596	845	13.58%	18.22%	68.20%	-1.57	-12.6	16
2016-04-16	Faetano	D 3-3	64.8	907	646	69.09%	18.11%	12.81%	+1.65	-3.5	35
2016-04-16	@ Pennarossa	D 3-3	64.8	646	907	12.81%	18.11%	69.09%	-1.65	+3.5	15
2016-04-16	La Fiorita	W 2-1	53.3	784	999	16.03%	18.51%	65.46%	-1.53	+25.5	27
2016-04-16	@ Libertas	L 1-2	53.3	999	784	65.46%	18.51%	16.03%	+1.53	-25.5	41
2016-04-16	San Giovanni	W 3-1	37.2	647	480	60.98%	18.86%	20.16%	+1.02	+15.8	17
2016-04-16	@ Cosmos	L 1-3	37.2	480	647	20.16%	18.86%	60.98%	-1.02	-15.8	6
2016-04-17	Fiorentino	L 0-1	38.5	821	875	32.81%	19.35%	47.84%	-0.45	-14.7	30
2016-04-17	@ Domagnano	W 1-0	38.5	875	821	47.84%	19.35%	32.81%	+0.45	+14.7	35
2016-04-17	Murata	L 1-3	53.8	1115	691	78.16%	16.22%	5.62%	+2.74	-52.3	48
2016-04-17	@ Tre Penne	W 3-1	53.8	691	1115	5.62%	16.22%	78.16%	-2.74	+52.3	24
2016-04-17	Tre Fiori	L 0-2	34.7	801	871	30.87%	19.31%	49.83%	-0.55	-26.4	28
2016-04-17	@ Virtus	W 2-0	34.7	871	801	49.83%	19.31%	30.87%	+0.55	+26.4	40

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2016-05-04	Folgore Falciano	L 0-3	31.1	903	1013	26.06%	19.17%	54.78%	-0.73	-33.1	0-1
2016-05-04	@ Pennarossa	W 3-0	31.1	1013	903	54.78%	19.17%	26.06%	+0.73	+33.1	1-0
2016-05-04	Juvenes Dogana	W 1-0	39.1	897	858	45.82%	19.37%	34.80%	+0.26	+15.4	1-0
2016-05-04	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-1	39.1	858	897	34.80%	19.37%	45.82%	-0.26	-15.5	0-1
2016-05-07	Folgore Falciano	L 2-3	46.4	912	1046	23.42%	19.05%	57.53%	-0.89	-9.9	1-1
2016-05-07	@ Tre Fiori	W 3-2	46.4	1046	912	57.53%	19.05%	23.42%	+0.89	+9.9	2-0
2016-05-09	Pennarossa	W 7-6	57.7	842	870	36.33%	19.39%	44.28%	-0.19	+15.9	1-1
2016-05-09	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 6-7	57.7	870	842	44.28%	19.39%	36.33%	+0.19	-15.9	0-2
2016-05-10	Tre Penne	L 1-2	42.4	973	1062	28.43%	19.25%	52.33%	-0.59	-12.3	0-1
2016-05-10	@ La Fiorita	W 2-1	42.4	1062	973	52.33%	19.25%	28.43%	+0.59	+12.3	1-0
2016-05-13	Tre Fiori	W 1-0	42.6	858	903	34.12%	19.36%	46.52%	-0.30	+19.6	2-1
2016-05-13	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-1	42.6	903	858	46.52%	19.36%	34.12%	+0.30	-19.6	1-2
2016-05-16	Folgore Falciano	W 3-1	42.7	1075	1056	42.98%	19.40%	37.62%	+0.13	+26.9	2-0
2016-05-16	@ Tre Penne	L 1-3	42.7	1056	1075	37.62%	19.40%	42.98%	-0.13	-26.9	2-1
2016-05-17	La Fiorita	L 0-3	32.0	878	961	29.14%	19.27%	51.59%	-0.56	-36.5	2-2
2016-05-17	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-0	32.0	961	878	51.59%	19.27%	29.14%	+0.56	+36.5	1-1
2016-05-21	Folgore Falciano	W 2-1	47.4	997	1029	35.86%	19.38%	44.76%	-0.21	+17.9	2-1
2016-05-21	@ La Fiorita	L 1-2	47.4	1029	997	44.76%	19.38%	35.86%	+0.21	-17.9	2-2
2016-05-26	La Fiorita	W 3-1	40.0	1102	1015	51.97%	19.26%	28.78%	+0.58	+21.5	3-0
2016-05-26	@ Tre Penne	L 1-3	40.0	1015	1102	28.78%	19.26%	51.97%	-0.58	-21.5	2-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-04-17	5.62%	Murata	691	3	@ Tre Penne	1115	1
2	2015-11-08	7.53%	@ Murata	674	3	La Fiorita	1041	1
3	2015-11-21	12.45%	@ Cailungo	680	4	Tre Fiori	947	1
4	2015-11-20	13.20%	@ Virtus	735	4	La Fiorita	990	3
5	2016-04-16	16.03%	@ Libertas	784	2	La Fiorita	999	1
6	2015-12-13	17.08%	@ Fiorentino	778	2	La Fiorita	980	1
7	2016-03-19	20.14%	Domagnano	803	2	@ Folgore Falciano	970	1
8	2015-09-12	20.15%	Tre Penne	727	1	@ Folgore Falciano	894	0
9	2016-02-21	20.71%	@ Cosmos	679	3	Domagnano	840	1
10	2015-11-28	21.88%	@ Murata	746	2	Juvenes Dogana	895	1
11	2015-10-25	22.39%	@ Fiorentino	745	2	Folgore Falciano	889	1
12	2016-03-06	24.47%	@ Pennarossa	826	2	La Fiorita	949	1
13	2015-10-17	25.11%	San Giovanni	640	1	@ Cailungo	757	0
14	2015-11-25	25.32%	Murata	725	2	@ Libertas	841	1
15	2015-12-12	26.80%	Cailungo	698	5	@ Murata	801	3
16	2016-02-07	28.80%	Fiorentino	803	2	@ Juvenes Dogana	890	0
17	2016-02-27	32.01%	Domagnano	799	2	@ Virtus	860	1
18	2015-10-25	32.33%	Murata	678	1	@ Virtus	736	0
19	2015-11-07	33.51%	@ Folgore Falciano	866	3	Juvenes Dogana	915	2
20	2016-05-13 *	34.12%	@ Juvenes Dogana	858	1	Tre Fiori	903	0
21	2016-02-27	34.53%	Cailungo	679	2	@ Cosmos	720	1
22	2015-09-19	35.54%	Tre Penne	752	3	@ Fiorentino	786	0
23	2016-02-27	35.77%	@ Fiorentino	855	3	Tre Fiori	887	1
24	2016-05-21 *	35.86%	@ La Fiorita	997	2	Folgore Falciano	1029	1
25	2016-05-09 *	36.33%	@ Juvenes Dogana	842	7	Pennarossa	870	6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-11-21	66.17	@ Cailungo	4	680	12.45%	Tre Fiori	1	947	69.50%	18.05%
2	2016-03-06	57.61	Libertas	4	723	44.00%	@ Cailungo	0	697	36.61%	19.39%
3	2015-09-19	52.32	Tre Penne	3	752	35.54%	@ Fiorentino	0	786	45.08%	19.38%
4	2016-04-17	52.31	Murata	3	691	5.62%	@ Tre Penne	1	1115	78.16%	16.22%
5	2015-10-03	52.22	@ La Fiorita	5	925	55.44%	Cailungo	0	810	25.42%	19.14%
6	2016-02-06	51.40	Tre Penne	3	928	36.46%	@ La Fiorita	0	955	44.15%	19.39%
7	2015-11-08	50.72	@ Murata	3	674	7.53%	La Fiorita	1	1041	75.52%	16.95%
8	2015-12-06	46.99	Folgore Falciano	4	905	52.08%	@ Libertas	0	818	28.67%	19.25%
9	2015-10-31	45.63	@ La Fiorita	4	995	53.07%	Libertas	0	900	27.70%	19.22%
10	2016-03-19	43.77	Tre Fiori	4	887	54.43%	@ Murata	0	780	26.39%	19.18%
11	2016-03-20	41.69	@ Fiorentino	3	857	46.45%	Virtus	0	813	34.19%	19.37%
12	2015-11-29	41.14	@ Domagnano	3	794	47.00%	Cailungo	0	746	33.64%	19.36%
13	2016-02-07	40.80	Fiorentino	2	803	28.80%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	890	51.95%	19.26%
14	2016-02-21	40.71	@ Cosmos	3	679	20.71%	Domagnano	1	840	60.39%	18.90%
15	2016-04-10	39.74	@ Folgore Falciano	3	973	48.39%	Fiorentino	0	915	32.27%	19.34%
16	2016-05-17 *	36.47	La Fiorita	3	961	51.59%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	878	29.14%	19.27%
17	2016-02-20	34.52	@ La Fiorita	2	904	37.76%	Tre Fiori	0	922	42.84%	19.40%
18	2015-10-04	34.29	@ Libertas	2	856	38.09%	Faetano	0	871	42.52%	19.40%
19	2015-09-12	33.95	La Fiorita	2	864	38.61%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	876	41.99%	19.40%
20	2016-05-04 *	33.14	Folgore Falciano	3	1013	54.78%	@ Pennarossa	0	903	26.06%	19.17%
21	2016-04-10	32.84	Tre Penne	4	1082	62.15%	@ Tre Fiori	0	903	19.06%	18.78%
22	2016-03-13	32.80	@ La Fiorita	5	927	66.41%	Cosmos	0	701	15.17%	18.42%
23	2016-02-28	32.59	@ Tre Penne	2	997	40.66%	Folgore Falciano	0	995	39.94%	19.40%
24	2015-12-05	32.31	@ Virtus	4	761	62.52%	San Giovanni	0	579	18.73%	18.76%
25	2015-11-21	32.08	Tre Penne	6	895	69.60%	@ San Giovanni	0	627	12.36%	18.04%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-04-16	64.8	@ Pennarossa	3	907	69.09%	Faetano	3	646	12.81%	18.11%
2	2016-03-12	64.7	@ Murata	3	777	17.63%	Folgore Falciano	3	973	63.71%	18.66%
3	2016-02-14	64.4	@ Murata	3	767	32.77%	Pennarossa	3	822	47.89%	19.34%
4	2015-11-20	62.9	@ Virtus	4	735	13.20%	La Fiorita	3	990	68.64%	18.16%
5	2015-12-13	60.3	@ Tre Penne	2	932	68.59%	Cosmos	2	678	13.24%	18.17%
6	2015-10-03	60.2	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	879	64.21%	Cosmos	2	678	17.16%	18.62%
7	2015-11-01	60.2	@ Tre Fiori	2	937	65.98%	Virtus	2	716	15.56%	18.46%
8	2016-02-21	60.1	@ Fiorentino	2	858	62.08%	Faetano	2	680	19.14%	18.79%
9	2016-03-20	60.1	@ Cosmos	2	668	21.19%	Juvenes Dogana	2	824	59.88%	18.93%
10	2015-11-07	60.0	@ Pennarossa	2	838	46.80%	Domagnano	2	791	33.83%	19.36%
11	2015-11-22	60.0	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	897	54.26%	Domagnano	2	792	26.55%	19.19%
12	2016-05-09 *	57.7	@ Juvenes Dogana	7	842	36.33%	Pennarossa	6	870	44.28%	19.39%
13	2016-03-13	54.6	@ Libertas	1	781	71.42%	San Giovanni	1	486	10.81%	17.77%
14	2016-02-28	54.3	@ Faetano	1	684	62.81%	San Giovanni	1	498	18.45%	18.73%
15	2015-09-20	54.2	@ Virtus	1	740	23.95%	Folgore Falciano	1	869	56.97%	19.08%
16	2015-10-16	54.2	@ Cosmos	1	682	22.25%	Pennarossa	1	827	58.76%	18.99%
17	2016-02-13	54.2	@ Tre Penne	1	979	57.21%	Juvenes Dogana	1	849	23.73%	19.07%
18	2015-09-13	54.1	@ Pennarossa	1	831	41.15%	Libertas	1	825	39.45%	19.40%
19	2015-09-19	54.1	@ Libertas	1	825	40.34%	Cailungo	1	825	40.26%	19.40%
20	2015-11-28	54.1	@ La Fiorita	1	965	48.90%	Folgore Falciano	1	903	31.77%	19.33%
21	2015-11-29	54.1	@ Tre Penne	1	927	50.63%	Pennarossa	1	851	30.08%	19.29%
22	2015-11-29	54.1	@ Libertas	1	819	48.50%	Virtus	1	760	32.16%	19.33%
23	2015-12-12	54.1	@ Domagnano	1	819	47.01%	Libertas	1	771	33.63%	19.36%
24	2016-02-06	54.1	@ Cosmos	1	682	28.62%	Murata	1	770	52.13%	19.25%
25	2016-03-12	54.1	@ Cailungo	1	639	34.66%	Faetano	1	680	45.97%	19.37%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-03-19	24.1	@ Pennarossa	4	865	75.83%	San Giovanni	0	492	7.30%	16.87%
2	2016-03-05	24.9	Juvenes Dogana	4	824	73.05%	@ San Giovanni	0	502	9.47%	17.48%
3	2015-10-24	25.6	@ La Fiorita	5	973	72.38%	San Giovanni	0	663	10.01%	17.60%
4	2016-03-20	26.2	La Fiorita	6	960	72.94%	@ Cailungo	0	640	9.56%	17.50%
5	2016-04-09	26.4	Pennarossa	3	891	70.37%	@ Cailungo	0	612	11.70%	17.93%
6	2016-02-20	26.5	Murata	4	768	67.95%	@ San Giovanni	0	522	13.80%	18.25%
7	2015-11-21	27.2	Tre Penne	6	895	69.60%	@ San Giovanni	0	627	12.36%	18.04%
8	2016-03-13	27.4	@ La Fiorita	5	927	66.41%	Cosmos	0	701	15.17%	18.42%
9	2016-02-21	27.8	Tre Penne	3	976	65.73%	@ Libertas	0	758	15.79%	18.48%
10	2015-12-05	28.1	@ Virtus	4	761	62.52%	San Giovanni	0	579	18.73%	18.76%
11	2016-04-10	28.2	Tre Penne	4	1082	62.15%	@ Tre Fiori	0	903	19.06%	18.78%
12	2016-04-16	29.2	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	845	68.20%	Cailungo	0	596	13.58%	18.22%
13	2015-10-31	29.7	Juvenes Dogana	3	887	59.25%	@ Cailungo	0	737	21.79%	18.96%
14	2015-12-12	29.8	@ Folgore Falciano	4	952	77.33%	San Giovanni	1	547	6.20%	16.47%
15	2016-03-05	29.9	@ Tre Penne	3	1030	58.65%	Fiorentino	0	886	22.35%	19.00%
16	2015-09-26	30.4	Libertas	3	825	57.07%	@ San Giovanni	0	695	23.86%	19.07%
17	2016-03-19	30.5	Tre Fiori	4	887	54.43%	@ Murata	0	780	26.39%	19.18%
18	2015-10-03	30.7	@ La Fiorita	5	925	55.44%	Cailungo	0	810	25.42%	19.14%
19	2015-10-31	30.9	@ La Fiorita	4	995	53.07%	Libertas	0	900	27.70%	19.22%
20	2016-05-04 *	31.1	Folgore Falciano	3	1013	54.78%	@ Pennarossa	0	903	26.06%	19.17%
21	2015-12-06	31.2	Folgore Falciano	4	905	52.08%	@ Libertas	0	818	28.67%	19.25%
22	2016-04-02	31.2	@ La Fiorita	4	985	72.90%	Faetano	1	666	9.59%	17.51%
23	2016-02-07	31.3	Folgore Falciano	5	959	66.72%	@ Cailungo	1	729	14.89%	18.38%
24	2016-05-17 *	32.0	La Fiorita	3	961	51.59%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	878	29.14%	19.27%
25	2016-02-14	32.6	@ Tre Fiori	3	916	76.56%	San Giovanni	1	528	6.75%	16.68%