2020-21 Campionato Sammarinese Season

105 games · 12 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

La Fiorita

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Libertas

8.26 points above expected

29 points · 20.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cosmos

8.08 points below expected

4 points · 12.08 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	La Fiorita	14	12	1	1	37	34	5	+29	29.40	+7.60
2	Folgore Falciano	14	9	2	3	29	25	9	+16	27.03	+1.97
3	Libertas	14	9	2	3	29	19	11	+8	20.74	+8.26
4	Tre Penne	14	9	0	5	27	30	20	+10	27.10	-0.10
5	Tre Fiori	14	7	5	2	26	26	11	+15	27.37	-1.37
6	Pennarossa	14	6	3	5	21	15	15	0	20.60	+0.40
7	San Giovanni	14	5	4	5	19	17	20	-3	12.99	+6.01
8	Juvenes Dogana	14	6	1	7	19	23	31	-8	14.02	+4.98
9	Murata	14	4	6	4	18	14	9	+5	19.58	-1.58
10	Virtus	14	4	5	5	17	13	12	+1	18.39	-1.39
11	Fiorentino	14	4	4	6	16	17	26	-9	13.04	+2.96
12	Domagnano	14	2	6	6	12	18	26	-8	18.45	-6.45
13	Faetano	14	2	4	8	10	14	26	-12	17.62	-7.62
14	Cailungo	14	2	2	10	8	17	31	-14	13.72	-5.72
15	Cosmos	14	1	1	12	4	10	40	-30	12.08	-8.08

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Libertas	29	20.74	+8.26
2	La Fiorita	37	29.40	+7.60
3	San Giovanni	19	12.99	+6.01
4	Juvenes Dogana	19	14.02	+4.98
5	Fiorentino	16	13.04	+2.96

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cosmos	4	12.08	-8.08
2	Faetano	10	17.62	-7.62
3	Domagnano	12	18.45	-6.45
4	Cailungo	8	13.72	-5.72
5	Murata	18	19.58	-1.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	La Fiorita	9	Sep 12 – Mar 20	1 in 156
2	Folgore Falciano	9	Oct 17 – Apr 17	1 in 152
3	Libertas	6	Sep 19 – Feb 27	1 in 147
4	Juvenes Dogana	2	Oct 3 – Oct 18	1 in 46
5	San Giovanni	2	Sep 13 – Sep 20	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Faetano	6	Sep 26 – Mar 7	1 in 174
2	Cosmos	9	Feb 27 – Apr 24	1 in 142
3	Folgore Falciano	3	Sep 12 – Sep 27	1 in 47
4	Pennarossa	4	Sep 19 – Oct 18	1 in 46
5	Tre Penne	2	Oct 18 – Feb 28	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pennarossa	8	Oct 24 – Apr 17	1 in 26
2	Fiorentino	3	Mar 20 – Apr 10	1 in 14
3	Folgore Falciano	11	Oct 4 – Apr 24	1 in 13
4	Virtus	6	Sep 12 – Oct 25	1 in 12
5	Libertas	6	Sep 19 – Feb 27	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Domagnano	9	Feb 24 – Apr 24	1 in 57
2	Faetano	8	Sep 13 – Mar 7	1 in 28
3	Folgore Falciano	4	Sep 12 – Oct 4	1 in 14
4	Cosmos	11	Oct 3 – Apr 24	1 in 14
5	Tre Fiori	3	Oct 17 – Feb 28	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
La Fiorita	1130	37	+17	10	10.6	-0.6
Folgore Falciano	1089	29	+39	13	11.4	+1.6
Libertas	964	29	+20	8	8.2	-0.2
Tre Penne	1034	27	-21	9	9.8	-0.8
Tre Fiori	1077	26	+10	10	8.7	+1.3
Pennarossa	919	21	+2	8	8.1	-0.1
Juvenes Dogana	820	19	+42	9	5.1	+3.9
San Giovanni	817	19	+15	5	3.8	+1.2
Murata	927	18	+19	8	7.3	+0.7
Virtus	880	17	-15	4	5.5	-1.5
Fiorentino	785	16	+4	5	3.7	+1.3
Domagnano	837	12	-39	2	5.6	-3.6
Faetano	844	10	+4	6	6.3	-0.3
Cailungo	755	8	-27	4	5.5	-1.5
Cosmos	668	4	-53	0	3.4	-3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CAI	COS	DOM	FAE	FIO	FF	JD	LF	LIB	MUR	PEN	SG	TF	TP	VIR
Cailungo	—	1-0-0 1.59	1-0-0 0.88	0-0-1 1.16	0-1-0 1.46	0-0-1 0.67	0-0-1 1.39	0-0-1 0.60	0-0-1 0.91	0-0-1 1.00	0-1-0 0.91	0-0-1 1.56	0-0-1 0.52	0-0-1 0.54	0-0-1 1.14
Cosmos	0-0-1 1.17	—	0-1-0 0.97	1-0-0 0.86	0-0-1 1.28	0-0-1 0.47	0-0-1 1.19	0-0-1 0.54	0-0-1 0.96	0-0-1 0.59	0-0-1 0.67	0-0-1 1.43	0-0-1 0.66	0-0-1 0.44	0-0-1 0.91
Domagnano	0-0-1 1.89	0-1-0 1.80	—	0-1-0 1.47	0-0-1 1.81	0-1-0 0.61	0-0-1 2.04	0-0-1 0.67	0-0-1 1.02	1-0-0 1.37	0-1-0 1.30	1-0-0 1.83	0-1-0 0.84	0-0-1 0.67	0-1-0 1.60
Faetano	1-0-0 1.61	0-0-1 1.91	0-1-0 1.29	—	0-0-1 1.87	0-0-1 0.68	0-0-1 1.58	0-0-1 0.67	0-0-1 1.04	0-1-0 0.98	1-0-0 0.93	0-1-0 1.51	0-0-1 0.77	0-0-1 1.06	0-1-0 1.47
Fiorentino	0-1-0 1.30	1-0-0 1.49	1-0-0 0.96	1-0-0 0.91	—	0-0-1 0.47	1-0-0 1.21	0-0-1 0.50	0-1-0 0.78	0-1-0 0.96	0-0-1 1.01	0-0-1 1.44	0-1-0 0.54	0-0-1 0.58	0-0-1 0.90
Folgore Falciano	1-0-0 2.12	1-0-0 2.34	0-1-0 2.19	1-0-0 2.11	1-0-0 2.35	—	1-0-0 2.29	0-0-1 1.45	0-0-1 1.76	0-1-0 1.67	0-0-1 1.86	1-0-0 2.21	1-0-0 1.18	1-0-0 1.35	1-0-0 1.97
Juvenes Dogana	1-0-0 1.38	1-0-0 1.57	1-0-0 0.75	1-0-0 1.19	0-0-1 1.55	0-0-1 0.52	—	0-0-1 0.46	0-0-1 0.82	0-1-0 0.95	0-0-1 0.86	1-0-0 1.46	0-0-1 0.54	1-0-0 0.57	0-0-1 1.04
La Fiorita	1-0-0 2.19	1-0-0 2.26	1-0-0 2.11	1-0-0 2.12	1-0-0 2.31	1-0-0 1.31	1-0-0 2.35	—	1-0-0 1.93	0-0-1 2.08	1-0-0 1.92	1-0-0 2.35	1-0-0 1.64	1-0-0 1.49	0-1-0 2.19
Libertas	1-0-0 1.86	1-0-0 1.81	1-0-0 1.75	1-0-0 1.73	0-1-0 2.00	1-0-0 1.01	1-0-0 1.95	0-0-1 0.84	—	1-0-0 1.38	1-0-0 1.18	0-1-0 1.88	0-0-1 0.87	0-0-1 1.14	1-0-0 1.74
Murata	1-0-0 1.77	1-0-0 2.21	0-0-1 1.39	0-1-0 1.79	0-1-0 1.81	0-1-0 1.10	0-1-0 1.82	1-0-0 0.71	0-0-1 1.39	—	0-0-1 1.55	1-0-0 1.63	0-1-0 0.84	0-0-1 0.82	0-1-0 1.53
Pennarossa	0-1-0 1.87	1-0-0 2.11	0-1-0 1.47	0-0-1 1.84	1-0-0 1.75	1-0-0 0.91	1-0-0 1.92	0-0-1 0.85	0-0-1 1.58	1-0-0 1.21	—	0-0-1 1.84	0-1-0 0.89	0-0-1 0.97	1-0-0 1.41
San Giovanni	1-0-0 1.20	1-0-0 1.33	0-0-1 0.94	0-1-0 1.26	1-0-0 1.32	0-0-1 0.58	0-0-1 1.31	0-0-1 0.46	0-1-0 0.89	0-0-1 1.13	1-0-0 0.93	—	0-1-0 0.58	1-0-0 0.61	0-1-0 0.87
Tre Fiori	1-0-0 2.29	1-0-0 2.13	0-1-0 1.94	1-0-0 2.01	0-1-0 2.26	0-0-1 1.58	1-0-0 2.26	0-0-1 1.13	1-0-0 1.91	0-1-0 1.94	0-1-0 1.88	0-1-0 2.22	—	1-0-0 1.55	1-0-0 1.89
Tre Penne	1-0-0 2.26	1-0-0 2.38	1-0-0 2.12	1-0-0 1.71	1-0-0 2.21	0-0-1 1.41	0-0-1 2.23	0-0-1 1.27	1-0-0 1.63	1-0-0 1.96	1-0-0 1.80	0-0-1 2.18	0-0-1 1.22	—	1-0-0 1.86
Virtus	1-0-0 1.63	1-0-0 1.86	0-1-0 1.16	0-1-0 1.30	1-0-0 1.87	0-0-1 0.81	1-0-0 1.73	0-1-0 0.61	0-0-1 1.03	0-1-0 1.24	0-0-1 1.35	0-1-0 1.91	0-0-1 0.88	0-0-1 0.91	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.66	+10.8
Allowed	0.66	-7.2
Differential	0.90	+5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.62%	11.43%	2.86%	4.29%	2.38%	0.95%	29.52%
1	11.43%	9.52%	8.10%	1.90%	0.48%	0.95%	32.38%
2	2.86%	8.10%	4.76%	2.86%	0.95%	1.43%	20.95%
3	4.29%	1.90%	2.86%	—	0.48%	—	9.52%
4	2.38%	0.48%	0.95%	0.48%	—	—	4.29%
5+	0.95%	0.95%	1.43%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	29.52%	32.38%	20.95%	9.52%	4.29%	3.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.37	1.37	2.00
CV	0.99	0.99	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 105

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
1	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
2	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	21.43%
3	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	2.21	-1.00
SD	1.05	1.76	1.92
CV	0.87	0.80	—
Max	3	7	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	50.00%
1	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
2	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	—	28.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.71	2.86	-2.14
SD	0.83	1.75	1.75
CV	1.16	0.61	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
1	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
2	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
3	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.29	1.86	-0.57
SD	1.14	1.17	1.40
CV	0.89	0.63	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
1	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
2	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.86	-0.86
SD	0.88	1.17	1.29
CV	0.88	0.63	—
Max	2	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	35.71%
1	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
2	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
3	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	21.43%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	1.86	-0.64
SD	1.42	1.46	2.02
CV	1.17	0.79	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
1	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
2	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
3	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	57.14%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.79	0.64	+1.14
SD	1.81	0.84	2.07
CV	1.01	1.31	—
Max	6	2	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
1	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
2	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
3	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.21	-0.57
SD	1.55	1.93	2.93
CV	0.94	0.87	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	35.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	42.86%
2	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
3	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	71.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.43	0.36	+2.07
SD	2.06	0.63	1.98
CV	0.85	1.77	—
Max	7	2	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
1	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
2	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
3	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	57.14%	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	0.79	+0.57
SD	1.08	1.12	1.50
CV	0.80	1.43	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	42.86%
1	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
2	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
3	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	0.64	+0.36
SD	1.24	0.74	1.50
CV	1.24	1.16	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
1	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
2	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.07	1.07	+0.00
SD	0.73	0.92	1.24
CV	0.68	0.86	—
Max	2	3	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
1	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	64.29%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	1.43	-0.21
SD	1.25	1.28	1.89
CV	1.03	0.90	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
1	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
2	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
3	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	35.71%	50.00%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	0.79	+1.07
SD	1.79	0.70	1.82
CV	0.96	0.89	—
Max	6	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
1	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
2	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
3	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
4	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.43	+0.71
SD	1.41	1.16	1.73
CV	0.66	0.81	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	35.71%	—	—	—	—	42.86%
1	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
2	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
3	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	71.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.93	0.86	+0.07
SD	1.00	0.53	1.07
CV	1.07	0.62	—
Max	3	2	+2
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
La Fiorita	1122	37	29.40	+7.60	100.0%	20	22	27	30	32	35	37
Folgore Falciano	1111	29	27.03	+1.97	70.0%	13	20	25	28	30	33	37
Tre Fiori	1043	26	27.37	-1.37	43.0%	16	19	24	27	31	35	38
Tre Penne	1042	27	27.10	-0.10	55.0%	14	21	24	27	30	35	38
Libertas	952	29	20.74	+8.26	98.0%	10	11	17	20	24	29	31
Murata	952	18	19.58	-1.58	43.0%	8	12	17	19	23	26	28
Pennarossa	909	21	20.60	+0.40	57.0%	8	12	18	20	24	27	32
Virtus	898	17	18.39	-1.39	40.0%	6	10	15	19	21	25	29
Domagnano	876	12	18.45	-6.45	10.0%	8	10	14	18	21	27	38
Faetano	844	10	17.62	-7.62	6.0%	4	10	14	17	21	26	28
San Giovanni	795	19	12.99	+6.01	93.0%	3	6	10	13	15	23	28
Juvenes Dogana	793	19	14.02	+4.98	84.0%	6	7	11	14	17	22	26
Fiorentino	787	16	13.04	+2.96	74.0%	4	6	10	13	17	21	25
Cailungo	755	8	13.72	-5.72	10.0%	4	6	11	14	17	22	26
Cosmos	668	4	12.08	-8.08	5.0%	1	4	9	12	15	20	27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+7.62%

Strong Edge

42.86%21.90%35.24%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 26.52 Elo pts.

142 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.7

One-Team Race

145610

Champion Preseason Odds

40%

La Fiorita, 1st of 15

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.57/gm

Runaway

00.220.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.68 * Some Luck: 3.68 to 5.52 * Lucky: 5.52 to 7.36 * Wild Swing: 7.36 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.8 * Close: 1.8 to 2.7 * Off: 2.7 to 3.61 * Way Off: 3.61 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.19 points

Some Luck

04.6012

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.13

02.255

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.67%

100.00%

La Fiorita

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.33%

5.00%

Cosmos

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 15

Minimal Outliers

01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Top-Heavy

00.20.260.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 134.14

1.79

Moderate Separation

11.71.92.23

Interquartile Edge

74%

Even

50%74%84.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

93%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

68%

Very Frequent

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Frequent

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.56

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Slight Separation

00.370.430.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.26

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.52

Strong Carryover

00.360.520.691

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Upset-Prone

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.

Probability calibration

0.32

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.14

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.116

Well Within Noise

00.1570.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Pennarossa 0

Fiorentino 0

Virtus 3

Juvenes Dogana 0

Sim: 3.0%

Domagnano 2

Tre Fiori 0

Sim: 1.0%

Murata 3

San Giovanni 0

Sim: 4.0%

Quarterfinals

Libertas 3

Virtus 2

Sim: 4.0%

Tre Penne 2

Pennarossa 1

Sim: 10.0%

La Fiorita 0

Domagnano 0

Folgore Falciano 1

Murata 1

Semifinals

La Fiorita 1

Tre Penne 0

Sim: 9.0%

Folgore Falciano 3

Libertas 1

Sim: 5.0%

Tre Penne 1

Libertas 0

Finals

Folgore Falciano 1

La Fiorita 0

Sim: 6.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
La Fiorita	40.00%	28.00%	14.00%	9.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Folgore Falciano	22.00%	18.00%	21.00%	15.00%	7.00%	8.00%	2.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	1.00%	—	—
Libertas	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	12.00%	9.00%	5.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Tre Penne	16.00%	18.00%	20.00%	18.00%	18.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Tre Fiori	19.00%	22.00%	19.00%	15.00%	14.00%	4.00%	2.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Pennarossa	—	4.00%	6.00%	8.00%	14.00%	12.00%	18.00%	11.00%	12.00%	3.00%	5.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—	2.00%
San Giovanni	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	5.00%	5.00%	7.00%	12.00%	20.00%	15.00%	13.00%	15.00%
Juvenes Dogana	—	—	1.00%	—	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	3.00%	5.00%	10.00%	13.00%	12.00%	14.00%	14.00%	14.00%
Murata	—	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	13.00%	11.00%	19.00%	10.00%	3.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Virtus	—	2.00%	3.00%	3.00%	4.00%	12.00%	17.00%	15.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	6.00%	7.00%	5.00%	—
Fiorentino	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	4.00%	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	13.00%	13.00%	11.00%	21.00%	18.00%
Domagnano	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	9.00%	5.00%	5.00%	13.00%	14.00%	11.00%	11.00%	9.00%	7.00%	2.00%	3.00%
Faetano	—	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	2.00%	13.00%	6.00%	10.00%	8.00%	14.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	4.00%	3.00%
Cailungo	—	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	6.00%	13.00%	8.00%	17.00%	13.00%	14.00%	16.00%
Cosmos	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	6.00%	8.00%	9.00%	6.00%	13.00%	22.00%	27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level
Cailungo	43.00%
Cosmos	62.00%
Domagnano	—
Faetano	17.00%
Fiorentino	—
Folgore Falciano	—
Juvenes Dogana	—
La Fiorita	—
Libertas	—
Murata	—
Pennarossa	—
San Giovanni	—
Tre Fiori	—
Tre Penne	—
Virtus	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo		66.7%3.00%	66.7%3.00%	42.9%7.00%	33.3%3.00%	0.0%2.00%	50.0%4.00%	40.0%5.00%	50.0%6.00%	18.2%11.00%	33.3%6.00%	0.0%2.00%	0.0%4.00%	0.0%6.00%	50.0%2.00%
Cosmos	33.3%3.00%		66.7%3.00%	20.0%5.00%		0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	28.6%7.00%	14.3%7.00%	0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	40.0%5.00%
Domagnano	33.3%3.00%	33.3%3.00%		50.0%12.00%	40.0%5.00%	0.0%4.00%	0.0%2.00%		60.0%5.00%	54.5%11.00%	21.4%14.00%	75.0%4.00%	50.0%2.00%	75.0%4.00%	58.3%12.00%
Faetano	57.1%7.00%	80.0%5.00%	50.0%12.00%		75.0%4.00%	0.0%2.00%	20.0%5.00%	0.0%2.00%	42.9%7.00%	0.0%8.00%	50.0%8.00%	75.0%4.00%	50.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%	33.3%9.00%
Fiorentino	66.7%3.00%		60.0%5.00%	25.0%4.00%		0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	33.3%12.00%	0.0%2.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%	0.0%4.00%	0.0%3.00%
Folgore Falciano	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%4.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		100.0%3.00%		0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%3.00%			50.0%4.00%
Juvenes Dogana	50.0%4.00%		100.0%2.00%	80.0%5.00%		0.0%3.00%		0.0%1.00%	25.0%4.00%	28.6%7.00%	40.0%10.00%	50.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%	20.0%5.00%	25.0%4.00%
La Fiorita	60.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%		100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		100.0%1.00%		100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%			33.3%3.00%
Libertas	50.0%6.00%	50.0%2.00%	40.0%5.00%	57.1%7.00%	66.7%12.00%	100.0%1.00%	75.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%		50.0%2.00%	57.1%7.00%	100.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	64.3%14.00%
Murata	81.8%11.00%	71.4%7.00%	45.5%11.00%	100.0%8.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	71.4%7.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%		66.7%9.00%	66.7%6.00%		66.7%3.00%	50.0%6.00%
Pennarossa	66.7%6.00%	85.7%7.00%	78.6%14.00%	50.0%8.00%	66.7%3.00%	0.0%2.00%	60.0%10.00%	0.0%1.00%	42.9%7.00%	33.3%9.00%		66.7%6.00%	100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%
San Giovanni	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	25.0%4.00%	25.0%4.00%	0.0%2.00%	100.0%3.00%	50.0%2.00%	66.7%3.00%	0.0%5.00%	33.3%6.00%	33.3%6.00%		33.3%3.00%	0.0%3.00%	37.5%8.00%
Tre Fiori	100.0%4.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%2.00%		100.0%2.00%		0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	66.7%3.00%			40.0%5.00%
Tre Penne	100.0%6.00%	50.0%2.00%	25.0%4.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%4.00%		80.0%5.00%		0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%3.00%			100.0%2.00%
Virtus	50.0%2.00%	60.0%5.00%	41.7%12.00%	66.7%9.00%	100.0%3.00%	50.0%4.00%	75.0%4.00%	66.7%3.00%	35.7%14.00%	50.0%6.00%	100.0%2.00%	62.5%8.00%	60.0%5.00%	0.0%2.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo						0.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	28.6%7.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%		0.0%3.00%	33.3%3.00%
Cosmos						100.0%2.00%		0.0%5.00%	50.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%
Domagnano				0.0%1.00%		28.6%7.00%		0.0%6.00%	71.4%7.00%	0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%2.00%	40.0%10.00%	37.5%8.00%
Faetano			100.0%1.00%			10.0%10.00%		25.0%8.00%	50.0%2.00%	25.0%4.00%			25.0%8.00%	0.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%
Fiorentino						33.3%3.00%		25.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%		50.0%2.00%		0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano	100.0%2.00%	0.0%2.00%	71.4%7.00%	90.0%10.00%	66.7%3.00%		100.0%5.00%	0.0%2.00%	72.7%11.00%	91.7%12.00%	71.4%7.00%	83.3%6.00%	50.0%4.00%	47.4%19.00%	75.0%4.00%
Juvenes Dogana	100.0%1.00%					0.0%5.00%		0.0%5.00%		0.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%		20.0%5.00%	0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita	71.4%7.00%	100.0%5.00%	100.0%6.00%	75.0%8.00%	75.0%4.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%5.00%		62.5%8.00%	73.3%15.00%	87.5%8.00%	75.0%4.00%	33.3%6.00%	83.3%6.00%	77.8%9.00%
Libertas	50.0%2.00%	50.0%2.00%	28.6%7.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	27.3%11.00%		37.5%8.00%		60.0%5.00%	75.0%4.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%6.00%	33.3%15.00%	66.7%6.00%
Murata	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	75.0%4.00%		8.3%12.00%	100.0%1.00%	26.7%15.00%	40.0%5.00%		42.9%7.00%	0.0%1.00%	27.3%11.00%	33.3%6.00%	50.0%8.00%
Pennarossa	100.0%2.00%		66.7%3.00%		50.0%2.00%	28.6%7.00%	50.0%2.00%	12.5%8.00%	25.0%4.00%	57.1%7.00%		0.0%1.00%	33.3%12.00%	28.6%14.00%	0.0%1.00%
San Giovanni			0.0%2.00%			16.7%6.00%		25.0%4.00%	0.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%		0.0%5.00%
Tre Fiori	100.0%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	60.0%10.00%	75.0%8.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%4.00%	80.0%5.00%	66.7%6.00%	100.0%6.00%	72.7%11.00%	66.7%12.00%	100.0%5.00%		50.0%6.00%	64.3%14.00%
Tre Penne	66.7%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	62.5%8.00%	100.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%	52.6%19.00%	100.0%1.00%	16.7%6.00%	66.7%15.00%	66.7%6.00%	71.4%14.00%		50.0%6.00%		80.0%10.00%
Virtus				100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	25.0%4.00%		22.2%9.00%	33.3%6.00%	50.0%8.00%	100.0%1.00%		35.7%14.00%	20.0%10.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Cosmos	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo						50.0%4.00%		100.0%1.00%
Cosmos								0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%					0.0%1.00%
Domagnano						0.0%2.00%		20.0%5.00%	100.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%		0.0%4.00%	0.0%3.00%	100.0%1.00%
Faetano								0.0%4.00%					100.0%1.00%	66.7%3.00%
Fiorentino						0.0%2.00%		100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%					0.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano	50.0%4.00%		100.0%2.00%		100.0%2.00%		100.0%1.00%	50.0%12.00%	71.4%7.00%	50.0%6.00%	80.0%5.00%		38.5%13.00%	50.0%10.00%	75.0%4.00%
Juvenes Dogana						0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	80.0%5.00%	100.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%	50.0%12.00%	100.0%1.00%		75.0%4.00%	100.0%4.00%	100.0%5.00%	100.0%2.00%	53.3%15.00%	64.3%14.00%	100.0%3.00%
Libertas		100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%		100.0%1.00%	28.6%7.00%	100.0%1.00%	25.0%4.00%		100.0%1.00%	66.7%3.00%		28.6%7.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%
Murata						50.0%6.00%		0.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%		55.6%9.00%	25.0%4.00%
Pennarossa			100.0%1.00%			20.0%5.00%		0.0%5.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%	0.0%3.00%
San Giovanni								0.0%2.00%					0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori			100.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%		61.5%13.00%		46.7%15.00%	71.4%7.00%	44.4%9.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%		83.3%12.00%	100.0%3.00%
Tre Penne		100.0%1.00%	100.0%3.00%	33.3%3.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%10.00%		35.7%14.00%	0.0%2.00%	75.0%4.00%	66.7%3.00%	0.0%1.00%	16.7%12.00%		66.7%3.00%
Virtus			0.0%1.00%			25.0%4.00%		0.0%3.00%	0.0%1.00%		100.0%3.00%		0.0%3.00%	33.3%3.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cailungo	Domagnano	Faetano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Cailungo											50.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%
Cosmos
Domagnano						100.0%1.00%		0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%
Faetano						100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%				100.0%1.00%
Fiorentino											0.0%1.00%
Folgore Falciano						33.3%18.00%	100.0%2.00%		0.0%1.00%		58.3%12.00%	25.0%4.00%	0.0%1.00%
Juvenes Dogana
La Fiorita		0.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%		66.7%18.00%		80.0%5.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		58.3%12.00%	50.0%8.00%	50.0%2.00%
Libertas			100.0%1.00%		0.0%2.00%	20.0%5.00%		66.7%3.00%			100.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%
Murata		100.0%1.00%				0.0%2.00%	33.3%3.00%				0.0%1.00%	0.0%2.00%
Pennarossa					100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%					50.0%2.00%	0.0%1.00%
San Giovanni											0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori	50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%	100.0%1.00%	41.7%12.00%	41.7%12.00%	0.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		28.6%7.00%	0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne	100.0%1.00%				75.0%4.00%	50.0%8.00%	100.0%1.00%	100.0%2.00%	100.0%1.00%		71.4%7.00%		100.0%1.00%
Virtus					100.0%1.00%	50.0%2.00%					100.0%1.00%	0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Finals	First Round
Tre Fiori	10.64%	5.18%	3.03%	19.23%
Pennarossa	5.03%	2.49%	0.86%	17.32%
Murata	4.26%	1.61%	0.66%	15.75%
Virtus	5.53%	1.91%	0.59%	14.05%
San Giovanni	3.39%	0.97%	0.21%	10.95%
Juvenes Dogana	1.77%	0.48%	0.13%	9.25%
Fiorentino	1.54%	0.55%	0.12%	7.68%
Domagnano	1.54%	0.36%	0.11%	5.77%
Folgore Falciano	18.43%	12.29%	6.22%	—
La Fiorita	18.97%	11.82%	7.72%	—
Libertas	16.09%	6.80%	2.48%	—
Tre Penne	12.82%	5.55%	2.86%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Domagnano	Fiorentino	Juvenes Dogana	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Virtus
Domagnano							23.1%100.00%
Fiorentino					30.7%100.00%
Folgore Falciano
Juvenes Dogana				37.0%100.00%
La Fiorita
Libertas
Murata			63.0%100.00%
Pennarossa		69.3%100.00%
San Giovanni								43.8%100.00%
Tre Fiori	76.9%100.00%
Tre Penne
Virtus						56.2%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Domagnano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Domagnano											26.7%23.08%
Fiorentino			20.0%30.73%
Folgore Falciano		80.0%30.73%						71.0%69.27%
Juvenes Dogana					19.1%36.99%
La Fiorita				80.9%36.99%			72.9%63.01%
Libertas									69.1%43.80%			60.7%56.20%
Murata					27.1%63.01%
Pennarossa			29.0%69.27%
San Giovanni						30.9%43.80%
Tre Fiori											55.3%76.92%
Tre Penne	73.3%23.08%									44.7%76.92%
Virtus						39.3%56.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Domagnano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Domagnano				54.5%0.33%	18.9%4.81%		35.0%1.03%
Fiorentino						31.0%3.97%			42.1%0.76%			45.1%1.42%
Folgore Falciano						63.5%47.33%			76.2%10.03%			69.9%16.37%
Juvenes Dogana	45.5%0.33%									25.4%3.07%	26.7%3.67%
La Fiorita	81.1%4.81%									57.6%32.07%	63.9%39.00%
Libertas		69.0%3.97%	36.5%47.33%					55.1%13.04%
Murata	65.0%1.03%									34.9%7.42%	37.0%8.60%
Pennarossa						44.9%13.04%			62.7%2.76%			55.1%4.32%
San Giovanni		57.9%0.76%	23.8%10.03%					37.3%2.76%
Tre Fiori				74.6%3.07%	42.4%32.07%		65.1%7.42%
Tre Penne				73.3%3.67%	36.1%39.00%		63.0%8.60%
Virtus		54.9%1.42%	30.1%16.37%					44.9%4.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Domagnano	Fiorentino	Folgore Falciano	Juvenes Dogana	La Fiorita	Libertas	Murata	Pennarossa	San Giovanni	Tre Fiori	Tre Penne	Virtus
Domagnano		0.0%0.02%	26.8%0.82%			33.3%0.33%		37.5%0.16%	40.0%0.05%			42.9%0.07%
Fiorentino	100.0%0.02%			66.7%0.06%	19.4%1.08%		43.7%0.16%			20.8%0.53%	14.7%0.34%
Folgore Falciano	73.2%0.82%			81.0%1.00%	41.9%23.10%		68.3%3.03%			50.4%9.93%	59.8%11.26%
Juvenes Dogana		33.3%0.06%	19.0%1.00%			31.0%0.42%		27.3%0.22%	71.4%0.07%			42.9%0.14%
La Fiorita		80.6%1.08%	58.1%23.10%			70.0%12.83%		72.6%4.52%	80.7%1.92%			72.4%3.84%
Libertas	66.7%0.33%			69.0%0.42%	30.0%12.83%		52.5%1.77%			38.6%5.62%	39.2%6.22%
Murata		56.2%0.16%	31.7%3.03%			47.5%1.77%		43.3%0.67%	66.7%0.21%			56.7%0.60%
Pennarossa	62.5%0.16%			72.7%0.22%	27.4%4.52%		56.7%0.67%			33.6%2.23%	38.2%2.17%
San Giovanni	60.0%0.05%			28.6%0.07%	19.3%1.92%		33.3%0.21%			19.4%0.72%	22.5%0.89%
Tre Fiori		79.2%0.53%	49.6%9.93%			61.4%5.62%		66.4%2.23%	80.6%0.72%			74.4%1.68%
Tre Penne		85.3%0.34%	40.2%11.26%			60.8%6.22%		61.8%2.17%	77.5%0.89%			62.9%1.32%
Virtus	57.1%0.07%			57.1%0.14%	27.6%3.84%		43.3%0.60%			25.6%1.68%	37.1%1.32%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2020-09-12	Folgore Falciano	W 2-0	43.2	920	1059	22.85%	22.73%	54.41%	-0.79	+28.4	3
2020-09-12	@ Pennarossa	L 0-2	43.2	1059	920	54.41%	22.73%	22.85%	+0.79	-28.4	0
2020-09-12	Libertas	W 1-0	36.1	1023	892	56.89%	22.42%	20.69%	+1.11	+6.8	3
2020-09-12	@ La Fiorita	L 0-1	36.1	892	1023	20.69%	22.42%	56.89%	-1.11	-6.8	0
2020-09-12	Murata	D 1-1	53.5	771	900	23.95%	22.87%	53.19%	-0.72	+1.8	1
2020-09-12	@ Juvenes Dogana	D 1-1	53.5	900	771	53.19%	22.87%	23.95%	+0.72	-1.8	1
2020-09-12	Virtus	D 0-0	49.1	912	873	45.69%	23.41%	30.90%	+0.46	-1.0	1
2020-09-12	@ Domagnano	D 0-0	49.1	873	912	30.90%	23.41%	45.69%	-0.46	+1.0	1
2020-09-13	Cailungo	D 1-1	53.3	793	827	35.58%	23.54%	40.88%	-0.05	+0.3	1
2020-09-13	@ Fiorentino	D 1-1	53.3	827	793	40.88%	23.54%	35.58%	+0.05	-0.3	1
2020-09-13	Cosmos	W 1-0	42.1	787	813	36.58%	23.56%	39.86%	+0.00	+11.6	3
2020-09-13	@ San Giovanni	L 0-1	42.1	813	787	39.86%	23.56%	36.58%	+0.00	-11.6	0
2020-09-13	Tre Penne	L 2-4	44.3	922	1018	27.50%	23.20%	49.30%	-0.49	-12.6	0
2020-09-13	@ Faetano	W 4-2	44.3	1018	922	49.30%	23.20%	27.50%	+0.49	+12.6	3
2020-09-19	Domagnano	L 1-2	46.8	898	911	38.55%	23.56%	37.89%	+0.10	-10.6	1
2020-09-19	@ Murata	W 2-1	46.8	911	898	37.89%	23.56%	38.55%	-0.10	+10.6	4
2020-09-19	Fiorentino	W 4-0	27.1	1031	793	66.96%	20.35%	12.68%	+1.86	+15.2	6
2020-09-19	@ Tre Penne	L 0-4	27.1	793	1031	12.68%	20.35%	66.96%	-1.86	-15.2	1
2020-09-19	Pennarossa	W 2-0	40.6	885	949	31.56%	23.43%	45.01%	-0.26	+24.1	3
2020-09-19	@ Libertas	L 0-2	40.6	949	885	45.01%	23.43%	31.56%	+0.26	-24.1	3
2020-09-20	Faetano	D 2-2	58.5	874	909	35.44%	23.54%	41.02%	-0.06	+0.2	2
2020-09-20	@ Virtus	D 2-2	58.5	909	874	41.02%	23.54%	35.44%	+0.06	-0.2	1
2020-09-20	La Fiorita	L 0-1	42.4	1031	1030	40.58%	23.55%	35.87%	+0.20	-11.8	0
2020-09-20	@ Folgore Falciano	W 1-0	42.4	1030	1031	35.87%	23.55%	40.58%	-0.20	+11.8	6
2020-09-20	San Giovanni	L 0-1	43.4	826	798	44.30%	23.46%	32.24%	+0.39	-12.6	1
2020-09-20	@ Cailungo	W 1-0	43.4	798	826	32.24%	23.46%	44.30%	-0.39	+12.6	6
2020-09-22	Tre Fiori	L 1-6	31.0	802	1036	14.82%	21.09%	64.09%	-1.47	-18.1	0
2020-09-22	@ Cosmos	W 6-1	31.0	1036	802	64.09%	21.09%	14.82%	+1.47	+18.1	3
2020-09-26	Cailungo	W 7-2	31.5	1041	814	66.12%	20.58%	13.30%	+1.79	+13.6	9
2020-09-26	@ La Fiorita	L 2-7	31.5	814	1041	13.30%	20.58%	66.12%	-1.79	-13.6	1
2020-09-26	Cosmos	L 1-2	51.8	909	784	56.26%	22.51%	21.24%	+1.07	-14.6	1
2020-09-26	@ Faetano	W 2-1	51.8	784	909	21.24%	22.51%	56.26%	-1.07	+14.6	3
2020-09-26	Tre Penne	L 1-3	39.5	925	1046	24.70%	22.95%	52.35%	-0.67	-12.9	3
2020-09-26	@ Pennarossa	W 3-1	39.5	1046	925	52.35%	22.95%	24.70%	+0.67	+12.9	9
2020-09-26	Virtus	L 0-2	35.1	773	874	26.96%	23.16%	49.89%	-0.53	-16.0	1
2020-09-26	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 2-0	35.1	874	773	49.89%	23.16%	26.96%	+0.53	+16.0	5
2020-09-27	Domagnano	D 0-0	49.4	1054	921	57.05%	22.40%	20.55%	+1.12	-2.6	4
2020-09-27	@ Tre Fiori	D 0-0	49.4	921	1054	20.55%	22.40%	57.05%	-1.12	+2.6	5
2020-09-27	Folgore Falciano	W 2-1	50.4	909	1019	25.95%	23.07%	50.98%	-0.59	+13.4	6
2020-09-27	@ Libertas	L 1-2	50.4	1019	909	50.98%	23.07%	25.95%	+0.59	-13.4	0
2020-09-27	Murata	L 0-4	33.2	811	887	29.93%	23.36%	46.71%	-0.35	-33.1	6
2020-09-27	@ San Giovanni	W 4-0	33.2	887	811	46.71%	23.36%	29.93%	+0.35	+33.1	4
2020-10-03	Cailungo	W 3-2	42.3	1059	800	68.65%	19.85%	11.50%	+2.01	+3.4	12
2020-10-03	@ Tre Penne	L 2-3	42.3	800	1059	11.50%	19.85%	68.65%	-2.01	-3.4	1
2020-10-03	Fiorentino	W 3-1	38.8	890	778	54.82%	22.69%	22.49%	+0.98	+11.9	8
2020-10-03	@ Virtus	L 1-3	38.8	778	890	22.49%	22.69%	54.82%	-0.98	-11.9	1
2020-10-03	Juvenes Dogana	L 0-2	44.8	924	757	60.60%	21.82%	17.58%	+1.36	-31.3	5
2020-10-03	@ Domagnano	W 2-0	44.8	757	924	17.58%	21.82%	60.60%	-1.36	+31.3	4
2020-10-03	Libertas	L 0-2	34.2	798	923	24.39%	22.92%	52.70%	-0.69	-14.7	3
2020-10-03	@ Cosmos	W 2-0	34.2	923	798	52.70%	22.92%	24.39%	+0.69	+14.7	9
2020-10-04	Faetano	W 3-0	30.0	1051	894	59.64%	21.99%	18.37%	+1.30	+16.6	7
2020-10-04	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-3	30.0	894	1051	18.37%	21.99%	59.64%	-1.30	-16.6	1
2020-10-04	Folgore Falciano	D 0-0	49.1	920	1006	28.85%	23.29%	47.86%	-0.41	+1.3	5
2020-10-04	@ Murata	D 0-0	49.1	1006	920	47.86%	23.29%	28.85%	+0.41	-1.3	1
2020-10-04	Pennarossa	W 1-0	46.1	778	912	23.36%	22.80%	53.84%	-0.76	+14.9	9
2020-10-04	@ San Giovanni	L 0-1	46.1	912	778	53.84%	22.80%	23.36%	+0.76	-14.9	3
2020-10-16	San Giovanni	W 3-1	39.2	893	793	53.41%	22.84%	23.75%	+0.89	+12.5	8
2020-10-16	@ Domagnano	L 1-3	39.2	793	893	23.75%	22.84%	53.41%	-0.89	-12.5	9
2020-10-17	Libertas	L 2-3	46.5	797	937	22.71%	22.72%	54.57%	-0.80	-6.6	1
2020-10-17	@ Cailungo	W 3-2	46.5	937	797	54.57%	22.72%	22.71%	+0.80	+6.6	12
2020-10-17	Tre Fiori	W 1-0	43.7	1005	1068	31.59%	23.44%	44.97%	-0.26	+12.8	4
2020-10-17	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	43.7	1068	1005	44.97%	23.44%	31.59%	+0.26	-12.8	7
2020-10-17	Virtus	D 1-1	53.3	922	902	43.09%	23.50%	33.41%	+0.32	-0.6	6
2020-10-17	@ Murata	D 1-1	53.3	902	922	33.41%	23.50%	43.09%	-0.32	+0.6	9
2020-10-18	Fiorentino	L 0-1	46.3	878	766	54.70%	22.70%	22.60%	+0.97	-15.1	1
2020-10-18	@ Faetano	W 1-0	46.3	766	878	22.60%	22.70%	54.70%	-0.97	+15.1	4
2020-10-18	La Fiorita	L 0-1	36.2	897	1055	20.99%	22.47%	56.54%	-0.93	-6.9	3
2020-10-18	@ Pennarossa	W 1-0	36.2	1055	897	56.54%	22.47%	20.99%	+0.93	+6.8	12
2020-10-18	Tre Penne	W 2-1	54.4	789	1062	12.33%	20.21%	67.46%	-1.74	+17.3	7
2020-10-18	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 1-2	54.4	1062	789	67.46%	20.21%	12.33%	+1.74	-17.3	12
2020-10-24	Faetano	W 3-0	28.8	1062	862	63.67%	21.19%	15.14%	+1.59	+13.8	15
2020-10-24	@ La Fiorita	L 0-3	28.8	862	1062	15.14%	21.19%	63.67%	-1.59	-13.9	1
2020-10-24	Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	34.1	790	1017	15.32%	21.24%	63.44%	-1.41	-5.1	1
2020-10-24	@ Cailungo	W 1-0	34.1	1017	790	63.44%	21.24%	15.32%	+1.41	+5.1	7
2020-10-24	Murata	D 0-0	49.4	1055	921	57.22%	22.37%	20.41%	+1.13	-2.6	8
2020-10-24	@ Tre Fiori	D 0-0	49.4	921	1055	20.41%	22.37%	57.22%	-1.13	+2.6	7
2020-10-24	Pennarossa	L 0-1	37.9	781	890	26.11%	23.09%	50.80%	-0.58	-8.3	4
2020-10-24	@ Fiorentino	W 1-0	37.9	890	781	50.80%	23.09%	26.11%	+0.58	+8.3	6
2020-10-25	Juvenes Dogana	W 1-0	35.8	944	806	57.64%	22.31%	20.04%	+1.16	+6.6	15
2020-10-25	@ Libertas	L 0-1	35.8	806	944	20.04%	22.31%	57.64%	-1.16	-6.6	7
2020-10-25	San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.6	903	780	55.99%	22.54%	21.47%	+1.05	-2.2	10
2020-10-25	@ Virtus	D 1-1	53.6	780	903	21.47%	22.54%	55.99%	-1.05	+2.2	10
2021-02-24	Domagnano	D 1-1	53.4	784	905	24.67%	22.95%	52.39%	-0.67	+1.7	4
2021-02-24	@ Cosmos	D 1-1	53.4	905	784	52.39%	22.95%	24.67%	+0.67	-1.7	9
2021-02-27	Fiorentino	L 2-3	53.1	799	773	44.01%	23.47%	32.52%	+0.37	-11.2	7
2021-02-27	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-2	53.1	773	799	32.52%	23.47%	44.01%	-0.37	+11.2	7
2021-02-27	La Fiorita	L 0-3	27.3	785	1076	11.42%	19.82%	68.76%	-1.86	-10.5	4
2021-02-27	@ Cosmos	W 3-0	27.3	1076	785	68.76%	19.82%	11.42%	+1.86	+10.5	18
2021-02-27	Libertas	L 1-2	43.1	849	950	26.89%	23.15%	49.96%	-0.53	-8.0	1
2021-02-27	@ Faetano	W 2-1	43.1	950	849	49.96%	23.15%	26.89%	+0.53	+8.0	18
2021-02-27	Pennarossa	L 0-1	43.3	924	898	43.93%	23.47%	32.60%	+0.37	-12.5	7
2021-02-27	@ Murata	W 1-0	43.3	898	924	32.60%	23.47%	43.93%	-0.37	+12.5	9
2021-02-28	Cailungo	L 2-3	56.3	904	785	55.50%	22.60%	21.90%	+1.02	-13.7	9
2021-02-28	@ Domagnano	W 3-2	56.3	785	904	21.90%	22.60%	55.50%	-1.02	+13.7	4
2021-02-28	Tre Fiori	D 1-1	54.2	782	1053	12.54%	20.30%	67.16%	-1.72	+3.6	11
2021-02-28	@ San Giovanni	D 1-1	54.2	1053	782	67.16%	20.30%	12.54%	+1.72	-3.6	9
2021-02-28	Tre Penne	W 1-0	42.0	1022	1045	37.14%	23.56%	39.30%	+0.03	+11.5	10
2021-02-28	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	42.0	1045	1022	39.30%	23.56%	37.14%	-0.03	-11.5	12
2021-03-06	Cosmos	W 5-2	42.9	784	775	41.72%	23.53%	34.75%	+0.25	+20.9	10
2021-03-06	@ Fiorentino	L 2-5	42.9	775	784	34.75%	23.53%	41.72%	-0.25	-20.8	4
2021-03-06	Domagnano	W 3-0	28.9	1086	890	63.39%	21.25%	15.36%	+1.57	+14.0	21
2021-03-06	@ La Fiorita	L 0-3	28.9	890	1086	15.36%	21.25%	63.39%	-1.57	-14.0	9
2021-03-06	San Giovanni	W 2-1	45.9	788	786	40.66%	23.55%	35.80%	+0.20	+10.1	10
2021-03-06	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 1-2	45.9	786	788	35.80%	23.55%	40.66%	-0.20	-10.0	11
2021-03-06	Tre Penne	L 0-3	34.0	958	1034	30.09%	23.36%	46.55%	-0.34	-25.5	18
2021-03-06	@ Libertas	W 3-0	34.0	1034	958	46.55%	23.36%	30.09%	+0.34	+25.4	15
2021-03-07	Faetano	W 2-0	31.1	1034	841	63.12%	21.31%	15.57%	+1.55	+9.8	13
2021-03-07	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-2	31.1	841	1034	15.57%	21.31%	63.12%	-1.55	-9.8	1
2021-03-07	Murata	L 1-2	42.8	799	911	25.69%	23.05%	51.27%	-0.61	-7.7	4
2021-03-07	@ Cailungo	W 2-1	42.8	911	799	51.27%	23.05%	25.69%	+0.61	+7.7	10
2021-03-07	Tre Fiori	L 0-1	36.5	901	1049	21.93%	22.61%	55.46%	-0.86	-7.1	10
2021-03-07	@ Virtus	W 1-0	36.5	1049	901	55.46%	22.61%	21.93%	+0.86	+7.1	12
2021-03-13	Juvenes Dogana	W 4-0	26.6	1056	798	68.60%	19.87%	11.53%	+2.01	+13.8	15
2021-03-13	@ Tre Fiori	L 0-4	26.6	798	1056	11.53%	19.87%	68.60%	-2.01	-13.8	10
2021-03-13	La Fiorita	L 0-1	40.6	1059	1100	34.59%	23.53%	41.88%	-0.10	-10.4	15
2021-03-13	@ Tre Penne	W 1-0	40.6	1100	1059	41.88%	23.53%	34.59%	+0.10	+10.4	24
2021-03-13	Libertas	L 0-1	41.7	919	933	38.39%	23.56%	38.04%	+0.09	-11.3	10
2021-03-13	@ Murata	W 1-0	41.7	933	919	38.04%	23.56%	38.39%	-0.09	+11.3	21
2021-03-13	Virtus	L 0-1	36.8	754	894	22.78%	22.72%	54.49%	-0.80	-7.4	4
2021-03-13	@ Cosmos	W 1-0	36.8	894	754	54.49%	22.72%	22.78%	+0.80	+7.4	13
2021-03-14	Cailungo	W 1-0	39.4	831	791	45.82%	23.40%	30.78%	+0.47	+9.5	4
2021-03-14	@ Faetano	L 0-1	39.4	791	831	30.78%	23.40%	45.82%	-0.47	-9.5	4
2021-03-14	Fiorentino	W 4-1	41.8	776	805	36.22%	23.55%	40.23%	-0.02	+27.0	14
2021-03-14	@ San Giovanni	L 1-4	41.8	805	776	40.23%	23.55%	36.22%	+0.02	-27.0	10
2021-03-14	Pennarossa	D 2-2	58.5	876	911	35.40%	23.54%	41.06%	-0.06	+0.2	10
2021-03-14	@ Domagnano	D 2-2	58.5	911	876	41.06%	23.54%	35.40%	+0.06	-0.2	10
2021-03-20	Cosmos	W 3-0	34.4	782	747	45.23%	23.42%	31.35%	+0.43	+26.3	7
2021-03-20	@ Cailungo	L 0-3	34.4	747	782	31.35%	23.42%	45.23%	-0.43	-26.3	4
2021-03-20	Juvenes Dogana	W 2-1	41.2	911	784	56.38%	22.49%	21.13%	+1.08	+6.5	13
2021-03-20	@ Pennarossa	L 1-2	41.2	784	911	21.13%	22.49%	56.38%	-1.08	-6.5	10
2021-03-20	San Giovanni	W 2-1	36.5	1110	803	72.23%	18.62%	9.15%	+2.36	+2.8	27
2021-03-20	@ La Fiorita	L 1-2	36.5	803	1110	9.15%	18.62%	72.23%	-2.36	-2.9	14
2021-03-20	Tre Fiori	D 2-2	59.6	778	1070	11.35%	19.79%	68.87%	-1.87	+2.9	11
2021-03-20	@ Fiorentino	D 2-2	59.6	1070	778	68.87%	19.79%	11.35%	+1.87	-2.9	16
2021-03-21	Domagnano	D 2-2	58.5	840	876	35.30%	23.54%	41.16%	-0.07	+0.3	5
2021-03-21	@ Faetano	D 2-2	58.5	876	840	41.16%	23.54%	35.30%	+0.07	-0.2	11
2021-03-21	Murata	W 2-1	40.8	1049	908	57.96%	22.26%	19.78%	+1.18	+6.1	18
2021-03-21	@ Tre Penne	L 1-2	40.8	908	1049	19.78%	22.26%	57.96%	-1.18	-6.1	10
2021-03-21	Virtus	W 1-0	35.7	1044	901	58.14%	22.24%	19.63%	+1.19	+6.5	16
2021-03-21	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	35.7	901	1044	19.63%	22.24%	58.14%	-1.19	-6.5	13
2021-04-06	Faetano	W 3-2	53.4	778	840	31.69%	23.44%	44.87%	-0.26	+11.4	13
2021-04-06	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 2-3	53.4	840	778	44.87%	23.44%	31.69%	+0.26	-11.4	5
2021-04-06	Fiorentino	L 1-2	50.8	876	781	52.77%	22.91%	24.32%	+0.86	-13.8	11
2021-04-06	@ Domagnano	W 2-1	50.8	781	876	24.32%	22.91%	52.77%	-0.86	+13.8	14
2021-04-06	Libertas	W 3-2	46.1	1067	944	56.00%	22.54%	21.46%	+1.05	+6.2	19
2021-04-06	@ Tre Fiori	L 2-3	46.1	944	1067	21.46%	22.54%	56.00%	-1.05	-6.2	21
2021-04-07	Folgore Falciano	L 0-5	25.9	720	1050	9.50%	18.83%	71.68%	-2.14	-13.9	4
2021-04-07	@ Cosmos	W 5-0	25.9	1050	720	71.68%	18.83%	9.50%	+2.14	+13.9	19
2021-04-07	La Fiorita	W 1-0	48.2	902	1113	16.44%	21.55%	62.01%	-1.31	+17.0	13
2021-04-07	@ Murata	L 0-1	48.2	1113	902	62.01%	21.55%	16.44%	+1.31	-17.0	27
2021-04-07	Pennarossa	L 0-1	41.3	895	917	37.16%	23.56%	39.28%	+0.03	-11.0	13
2021-04-07	@ Virtus	W 1-0	41.3	917	895	39.28%	23.56%	37.16%	-0.03	+11.0	16
2021-04-07	Tre Penne	W 4-2	55.0	800	1055	13.47%	20.65%	65.88%	-1.61	+26.2	17
2021-04-07	@ San Giovanni	L 2-4	55.0	1055	800	65.88%	20.65%	13.47%	+1.61	-26.2	18
2021-04-10	Domagnano	W 3-0	32.8	938	862	50.50%	23.11%	26.39%	+0.72	+22.9	24
2021-04-10	@ Libertas	L 0-3	32.8	862	938	26.39%	23.11%	50.50%	-0.72	-22.8	11
2021-04-10	Juvenes Dogana	W 6-0	26.3	1096	789	72.20%	18.63%	9.17%	+2.35	+15.9	30
2021-04-10	@ La Fiorita	L 0-6	26.3	789	1096	9.17%	18.63%	72.20%	-2.35	-15.9	13
2021-04-10	Murata	D 0-0	49.2	795	919	24.45%	22.92%	52.62%	-0.69	+2.0	15
2021-04-10	@ Fiorentino	D 0-0	49.2	919	795	52.62%	22.92%	24.45%	+0.69	-2.0	14
2021-04-10	San Giovanni	W 3-0	27.8	1064	826	66.98%	20.35%	12.67%	+1.86	+11.6	22
2021-04-10	@ Folgore Falciano	L 0-3	27.8	826	1064	12.67%	20.35%	66.98%	-1.86	-11.6	17
2021-04-11	Cosmos	W 2-1	36.2	1029	706	73.23%	18.23%	8.54%	+2.46	+2.6	21
2021-04-11	@ Tre Penne	L 1-2	36.2	706	1029	8.54%	18.23%	73.23%	-2.46	-2.7	4
2021-04-11	Tre Fiori	D 1-1	53.5	928	1073	22.23%	22.65%	55.12%	-0.84	+2.1	17
2021-04-11	@ Pennarossa	D 1-1	53.5	1073	928	55.12%	22.65%	22.23%	+0.84	-2.1	20
2021-04-11	Virtus	L 1-2	44.2	808	884	30.05%	23.36%	46.58%	-0.35	-8.8	7
2021-04-11	@ Cailungo	W 2-1	44.2	884	808	46.58%	23.36%	30.05%	+0.35	+8.8	16
2021-04-13	Faetano	D 0-0	49.2	917	829	51.91%	22.99%	25.10%	+0.80	-1.9	15
2021-04-13	@ Murata	D 0-0	49.2	829	917	25.10%	22.99%	51.91%	-0.80	+1.9	6
2021-04-13	Folgore Falciano	L 1-6	29.3	773	1076	10.80%	19.52%	69.68%	-1.95	-13.2	13
2021-04-13	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 6-1	29.3	1076	773	69.68%	19.52%	10.80%	+1.95	+13.2	25
2021-04-13	La Fiorita	L 0-4	26.0	797	1112	10.16%	19.20%	70.64%	-2.04	-12.1	15
2021-04-13	@ Fiorentino	W 4-0	26.0	1112	797	70.64%	19.20%	10.16%	+2.04	+12.1	33
2021-04-13	Libertas	D 0-0	49.3	815	961	22.14%	22.64%	55.22%	-0.84	+2.3	18
2021-04-13	@ San Giovanni	D 0-0	49.3	961	815	55.22%	22.64%	22.14%	+0.84	-2.3	25
2021-04-14	Cailungo	W 3-1	34.3	1071	799	69.67%	19.53%	10.81%	+2.11	+5.9	23
2021-04-14	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-3	34.3	799	1071	10.81%	19.53%	69.67%	-2.11	-5.9	7
2021-04-14	Pennarossa	L 1-2	39.1	704	930	15.36%	21.25%	63.38%	-1.41	-4.8	4
2021-04-14	@ Cosmos	W 2-1	39.1	930	704	63.38%	21.25%	15.36%	+1.41	+4.8	20
2021-04-14	Tre Penne	L 0-1	36.8	892	1031	22.86%	22.73%	54.41%	-0.79	-7.4	16
2021-04-14	@ Virtus	W 1-0	36.8	1031	892	54.41%	22.73%	22.86%	+0.79	+7.4	24
2021-04-17	Domagnano	W 4-3	46.5	1039	839	63.70%	21.18%	15.12%	+1.60	+4.4	27
2021-04-17	@ Tre Penne	L 3-4	46.5	839	1039	15.12%	21.18%	63.70%	-1.60	-4.4	11
2021-04-17	Fiorentino	W 2-1	36.5	1089	785	71.99%	18.71%	9.30%	+2.33	+2.9	28
2021-04-17	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-2	36.5	785	1089	9.30%	18.71%	71.99%	-2.33	-2.9	15
2021-04-17	Juvenes Dogana	L 2-5	42.0	699	760	31.88%	23.45%	44.67%	-0.24	-19.5	4
2021-04-17	@ Cosmos	W 5-2	42.0	760	699	44.67%	23.45%	31.88%	+0.24	+19.5	16
2021-04-17	Pennarossa	D 1-1	53.5	793	935	22.60%	22.70%	54.70%	-0.81	+2.0	8
2021-04-17	@ Cailungo	D 1-1	53.5	935	793	54.70%	22.70%	22.60%	+0.81	-2.0	21
2021-04-18	San Giovanni	D 1-1	53.3	831	817	42.34%	23.52%	34.14%	+0.29	-0.5	7
2021-04-18	@ Faetano	D 1-1	53.3	817	831	34.14%	23.52%	42.34%	-0.29	+0.5	19
2021-04-18	Tre Fiori	W 1-0	39.1	1124	1077	46.83%	23.35%	29.82%	+0.52	+9.2	36
2021-04-18	@ La Fiorita	L 0-1	39.1	1077	1124	29.82%	23.35%	46.83%	-0.52	-9.2	23
2021-04-18	Virtus	W 1-0	38.1	958	885	50.19%	23.13%	26.67%	+0.71	+8.4	28
2021-04-18	@ Libertas	L 0-1	38.1	885	958	26.67%	23.13%	50.19%	-0.71	-8.4	16
2021-04-24	Cosmos	W 3-0	27.9	915	679	66.78%	20.40%	12.81%	+1.85	+11.8	18
2021-04-24	@ Murata	L 0-3	27.9	679	915	12.81%	20.40%	66.78%	-1.85	-11.8	4
2021-04-24	Faetano	L 1-2	51.1	933	830	53.68%	22.81%	23.50%	+0.91	-14.0	21
2021-04-24	@ Pennarossa	W 2-1	51.1	830	933	23.50%	22.81%	53.68%	-0.91	+14.0	10
2021-04-24	Folgore Falciano	D 2-2	59.4	835	1092	13.33%	20.60%	66.07%	-1.63	+2.6	12
2021-04-24	@ Domagnano	D 2-2	59.4	1092	835	66.07%	20.60%	13.33%	+1.63	-2.6	29
2021-04-24	Tre Penne	W 2-1	45.0	1068	1043	43.83%	23.48%	32.70%	+0.36	+9.4	26
2021-04-24	@ Tre Fiori	L 1-2	45.0	1043	1068	32.70%	23.48%	43.83%	-0.36	-9.4	27
2021-04-25	Cailungo	W 4-0	35.7	780	795	38.12%	23.56%	38.32%	+0.08	+40.2	19
2021-04-25	@ Juvenes Dogana	L 0-4	35.7	795	780	38.32%	23.56%	38.12%	-0.08	-40.2	8
2021-04-25	La Fiorita	D 1-1	54.2	877	1134	13.33%	20.60%	66.07%	-1.63	+3.5	17
2021-04-25	@ Virtus	D 1-1	54.2	1134	877	66.07%	20.60%	13.33%	+1.63	-3.5	37
2021-04-25	Libertas	D 0-0	49.5	782	967	18.58%	22.03%	59.39%	-1.12	+2.9	16
2021-04-25	@ Fiorentino	D 0-0	49.5	967	782	59.39%	22.03%	18.58%	+1.12	-2.9	29

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2021-05-01	Fiorentino	D 0-0	49.4	919	785	57.23%	22.37%	20.40%	+1.13	-2.6	0-0-1
2021-05-01	@ Pennarossa	D 0-0	49.4	785	919	20.40%	22.37%	57.23%	-1.13	+2.6	0-0-1
2021-05-01	Virtus	L 0-3	34.6	820	880	32.02%	23.45%	44.53%	-0.24	-26.8	0-1
2021-05-01	@ Juvenes Dogana	W 3-0	34.6	880	820	44.53%	23.45%	32.02%	+0.24	+26.8	1-0
2021-05-02	Domagnano	L 0-2	46.3	1077	837	67.16%	20.30%	12.54%	+1.88	-34.4	0-1
2021-05-02	@ Tre Fiori	W 2-0	46.3	837	1077	12.54%	20.30%	67.16%	-1.88	+34.4	1-0
2021-05-02	Murata	L 0-3	32.7	817	927	26.06%	23.08%	50.86%	-0.58	-22.6	0-1
2021-05-02	@ San Giovanni	W 3-0	32.7	927	817	50.86%	23.08%	26.06%	+0.58	+22.6	1-0
2021-05-05	Libertas	L 2-3	49.6	907	964	32.42%	23.47%	44.11%	-0.22	-8.8	1-1
2021-05-05	@ Virtus	W 3-2	49.6	964	907	44.11%	23.47%	32.42%	+0.22	+8.8	1-0
2021-05-05	Tre Penne	L 1-2	42.6	916	1034	25.13%	22.99%	51.88%	-0.64	-7.5	0-1-1
2021-05-05	@ Pennarossa	W 2-1	42.6	1034	916	51.88%	22.99%	25.13%	+0.64	+7.5	1-0
2021-05-06	Domagnano	D 0-0	50.1	1130	872	68.63%	19.86%	11.51%	+2.01	-4.2	0-0-1
2021-05-06	@ La Fiorita	D 0-0	50.1	872	1130	11.51%	19.86%	68.63%	-2.01	+4.2	1-0-1
2021-05-06	Murata	D 1-1	53.7	1089	949	57.85%	22.28%	19.87%	+1.17	-2.4	0-0-1
2021-05-06	@ Folgore Falciano	D 1-1	53.7	949	1089	19.87%	22.28%	57.85%	-1.17	+2.4	1-0-1
2021-05-10	Tre Penne	W 1-0	37.7	1126	1041	51.55%	23.02%	25.42%	+0.78	+8.1	1-0-1
2021-05-10	@ La Fiorita	L 0-1	37.7	1041	1126	25.42%	23.02%	51.55%	-0.78	-8.1	1-1
2021-05-11	Libertas	W 3-1	38.8	1087	973	55.00%	22.66%	22.33%	+0.99	+11.8	1-0-1
2021-05-11	@ Folgore Falciano	L 1-3	38.8	973	1087	22.33%	22.66%	55.00%	-0.99	-11.8	1-1
2021-05-21	Libertas	W 1-0	38.7	1033	961	48.12%	23.28%	28.60%	+0.51	+8.9	2-1
2021-05-21	@ Tre Penne	L 0-1	38.7	961	1033	28.60%	23.28%	48.12%	-0.51	-8.9	1-2
2021-05-22	Folgore Falciano	L 0-1	43.2	1134	1098	43.21%	23.49%	33.29%	+0.25	-12.4	1-1-1
2021-05-22	@ La Fiorita	W 1-0	43.2	1098	1134	33.29%	23.49%	43.21%	-0.25	+12.4	2-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2020-10-18	12.33%	@ Juvenes Dogana	789	2	Tre Penne	1062	1
2	2021-05-02 *	12.54%	Domagnano	837	2	@ Tre Fiori	1077	0
3	2021-04-07	13.47%	@ San Giovanni	800	4	Tre Penne	1055	2
4	2021-04-07	16.44%	@ Murata	902	1	La Fiorita	1113	0
5	2020-10-03	17.58%	Juvenes Dogana	757	2	@ Domagnano	924	0
6	2020-09-26	21.24%	Cosmos	784	2	@ Faetano	909	1
7	2021-02-28	21.90%	Cailungo	785	3	@ Domagnano	904	2
8	2020-10-18	22.60%	Fiorentino	766	1	@ Faetano	878	0
9	2020-09-12	22.85%	@ Pennarossa	920	2	Folgore Falciano	1059	0
10	2020-10-04	23.36%	@ San Giovanni	778	1	Pennarossa	912	0
11	2021-04-24	23.50%	Faetano	830	2	@ Pennarossa	933	1
12	2021-04-06	24.32%	Fiorentino	781	2	@ Domagnano	876	1
13	2020-09-27	25.95%	@ Libertas	909	2	Folgore Falciano	1019	1
14	2020-09-19	31.56%	@ Libertas	885	2	Pennarossa	949	0
15	2020-10-17	31.59%	@ Folgore Falciano	1005	1	Tre Fiori	1068	0
16	2021-04-06	31.69%	@ Juvenes Dogana	778	3	Faetano	840	2
17	2020-09-20	32.24%	San Giovanni	798	1	@ Cailungo	826	0
18	2021-02-27	32.52%	Fiorentino	773	3	@ Juvenes Dogana	799	2
19	2021-02-27	32.60%	Pennarossa	898	1	@ Murata	924	0
20	2021-05-22 *	33.29%	Folgore Falciano	1098	1	@ La Fiorita	1134	0
21	2020-09-20	35.87%	La Fiorita	1030	1	@ Folgore Falciano	1031	0
22	2021-03-14	36.22%	@ San Giovanni	776	4	Fiorentino	805	1
23	2020-09-13	36.58%	@ San Giovanni	787	1	Cosmos	813	0
24	2021-02-28	37.14%	@ Folgore Falciano	1022	1	Tre Penne	1045	0
25	2020-09-19	37.89%	Domagnano	911	2	@ Murata	898	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-04-25	40.22	@ Juvenes Dogana	4	780	38.12%	Cailungo	0	795	38.32%	23.56%
2	2021-05-02 *	34.39	Domagnano	2	837	12.54%	@ Tre Fiori	0	1077	67.16%	20.30%
3	2020-09-27	33.11	Murata	4	887	46.71%	@ San Giovanni	0	811	29.93%	23.36%
4	2020-10-03	31.33	Juvenes Dogana	2	757	17.58%	@ Domagnano	0	924	60.60%	21.82%
5	2020-09-12	28.39	@ Pennarossa	2	920	22.85%	Folgore Falciano	0	1059	54.41%	22.73%
6	2021-03-14	26.96	@ San Giovanni	4	776	36.22%	Fiorentino	1	805	40.23%	23.55%
7	2021-05-01 *	26.76	Virtus	3	880	44.53%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	820	32.02%	23.45%
8	2021-03-20	26.31	@ Cailungo	3	782	45.23%	Cosmos	0	747	31.35%	23.42%
9	2021-04-07	26.18	@ San Giovanni	4	800	13.47%	Tre Penne	2	1055	65.88%	20.65%
10	2021-03-06	25.46	Tre Penne	3	1034	46.55%	@ Libertas	0	958	30.09%	23.36%
11	2020-09-19	24.09	@ Libertas	2	885	31.56%	Pennarossa	0	949	45.01%	23.43%
12	2021-04-10	22.85	@ Libertas	3	938	50.50%	Domagnano	0	862	26.39%	23.11%
13	2021-05-02 *	22.61	Murata	3	927	50.86%	@ San Giovanni	0	817	26.06%	23.08%
14	2021-03-06	20.85	@ Fiorentino	5	784	41.72%	Cosmos	2	775	34.75%	23.53%
15	2021-04-17	19.48	Juvenes Dogana	5	760	44.67%	@ Cosmos	2	699	31.88%	23.45%
16	2020-09-22	18.09	Tre Fiori	6	1036	64.09%	@ Cosmos	1	802	14.82%	21.09%
17	2020-10-18	17.26	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	789	12.33%	Tre Penne	1	1062	67.46%	20.21%
18	2021-04-07	16.96	@ Murata	1	902	16.44%	La Fiorita	0	1113	62.01%	21.55%
19	2020-10-04	16.62	@ Tre Fiori	3	1051	59.64%	Faetano	0	894	18.37%	21.99%
20	2020-09-26	16.01	Virtus	2	874	49.89%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	773	26.96%	23.16%
21	2021-04-10	15.89	@ La Fiorita	6	1096	72.20%	Juvenes Dogana	0	789	9.17%	18.63%
22	2020-09-19	15.20	@ Tre Penne	4	1031	66.96%	Fiorentino	0	793	12.68%	20.35%
23	2020-10-18	15.13	Fiorentino	1	766	22.60%	@ Faetano	0	878	54.70%	22.70%
24	2020-10-04	14.92	@ San Giovanni	1	778	23.36%	Pennarossa	0	912	53.84%	22.80%
25	2020-10-03	14.72	Libertas	2	923	52.70%	@ Cosmos	0	798	24.39%	22.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-03-20	59.6	@ Fiorentino	2	778	11.35%	Tre Fiori	2	1070	68.87%	19.79%
2	2021-04-24	59.4	@ Domagnano	2	835	13.33%	Folgore Falciano	2	1092	66.07%	20.60%
3	2020-09-20	58.5	@ Virtus	2	874	35.44%	Faetano	2	909	41.02%	23.54%
4	2021-03-14	58.5	@ Domagnano	2	876	35.40%	Pennarossa	2	911	41.06%	23.54%
5	2021-03-21	58.5	@ Faetano	2	840	35.30%	Domagnano	2	876	41.16%	23.54%
6	2021-02-28	56.3	Cailungo	3	785	21.90%	@ Domagnano	2	904	55.50%	22.60%
7	2021-04-07	55.0	@ San Giovanni	4	800	13.47%	Tre Penne	2	1055	65.88%	20.65%
8	2020-10-18	54.4	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	789	12.33%	Tre Penne	1	1062	67.46%	20.21%
9	2021-02-28	54.2	@ San Giovanni	1	782	12.54%	Tre Fiori	1	1053	67.16%	20.30%
10	2021-04-25	54.2	@ Virtus	1	877	13.33%	La Fiorita	1	1134	66.07%	20.60%
11	2021-05-06 *	53.7	@ Folgore Falciano	1	1089	57.85%	Murata	1	949	19.87%	22.28%
12	2020-10-25	53.6	@ Virtus	1	903	55.99%	San Giovanni	1	780	21.47%	22.54%
13	2020-09-12	53.5	@ Juvenes Dogana	1	771	23.95%	Murata	1	900	53.19%	22.87%
14	2021-04-11	53.5	@ Pennarossa	1	928	22.23%	Tre Fiori	1	1073	55.12%	22.65%
15	2021-04-17	53.5	@ Cailungo	1	793	22.60%	Pennarossa	1	935	54.70%	22.70%
16	2021-02-24	53.4	@ Cosmos	1	784	24.67%	Domagnano	1	905	52.39%	22.95%
17	2021-04-06	53.4	@ Juvenes Dogana	3	778	31.69%	Faetano	2	840	44.87%	23.44%
18	2020-09-13	53.3	@ Fiorentino	1	793	35.58%	Cailungo	1	827	40.88%	23.54%
19	2020-10-17	53.3	@ Murata	1	922	43.09%	Virtus	1	902	33.41%	23.50%
20	2021-04-18	53.3	@ Faetano	1	831	42.34%	San Giovanni	1	817	34.14%	23.52%
21	2021-02-27	53.1	Fiorentino	3	773	32.52%	@ Juvenes Dogana	2	799	44.01%	23.47%
22	2020-09-26	51.8	Cosmos	2	784	21.24%	@ Faetano	1	909	56.26%	22.51%
23	2021-04-24	51.1	Faetano	2	830	23.50%	@ Pennarossa	1	933	53.68%	22.81%
24	2021-04-06	50.8	Fiorentino	2	781	24.32%	@ Domagnano	1	876	52.77%	22.91%
25	2020-09-27	50.4	@ Libertas	2	909	25.95%	Folgore Falciano	1	1019	50.98%	23.07%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-04-07	25.9	Folgore Falciano	5	1050	71.68%	@ Cosmos	0	720	9.50%	18.83%
2	2021-04-13	26.0	La Fiorita	4	1112	70.64%	@ Fiorentino	0	797	10.16%	19.20%
3	2021-04-10	26.3	@ La Fiorita	6	1096	72.20%	Juvenes Dogana	0	789	9.17%	18.63%
4	2021-03-13	26.6	@ Tre Fiori	4	1056	68.60%	Juvenes Dogana	0	798	11.53%	19.87%
5	2020-09-19	27.1	@ Tre Penne	4	1031	66.96%	Fiorentino	0	793	12.68%	20.35%
6	2021-02-27	27.3	La Fiorita	3	1076	68.76%	@ Cosmos	0	785	11.42%	19.82%
7	2021-04-10	27.8	@ Folgore Falciano	3	1064	66.98%	San Giovanni	0	826	12.67%	20.35%
8	2021-04-24	27.9	@ Murata	3	915	66.78%	Cosmos	0	679	12.81%	20.40%
9	2020-10-24	28.8	@ La Fiorita	3	1062	63.67%	Faetano	0	862	15.14%	21.19%
10	2021-03-06	28.9	@ La Fiorita	3	1086	63.39%	Domagnano	0	890	15.36%	21.25%
11	2021-04-13	29.3	Folgore Falciano	6	1076	69.68%	@ Juvenes Dogana	1	773	10.80%	19.52%
12	2020-10-04	30.0	@ Tre Fiori	3	1051	59.64%	Faetano	0	894	18.37%	21.99%
13	2020-09-22	31.0	Tre Fiori	6	1036	64.09%	@ Cosmos	1	802	14.82%	21.09%
14	2021-03-07	31.1	@ Folgore Falciano	2	1034	63.12%	Faetano	0	841	15.57%	21.31%
15	2020-09-26	31.5	@ La Fiorita	7	1041	66.12%	Cailungo	2	814	13.30%	20.58%
16	2021-05-02 *	32.7	Murata	3	927	50.86%	@ San Giovanni	0	817	26.06%	23.08%
17	2021-04-10	32.8	@ Libertas	3	938	50.50%	Domagnano	0	862	26.39%	23.11%
18	2020-09-27	33.2	Murata	4	887	46.71%	@ San Giovanni	0	811	29.93%	23.36%
19	2021-03-06	34.0	Tre Penne	3	1034	46.55%	@ Libertas	0	958	30.09%	23.36%
20	2020-10-24	34.1	Folgore Falciano	1	1017	63.44%	@ Cailungo	0	790	15.32%	21.24%
21	2020-10-03	34.2	Libertas	2	923	52.70%	@ Cosmos	0	798	24.39%	22.92%
22	2021-04-14	34.3	@ Tre Fiori	3	1071	69.67%	Cailungo	1	799	10.81%	19.53%
23	2021-03-20	34.4	@ Cailungo	3	782	45.23%	Cosmos	0	747	31.35%	23.42%
24	2021-05-01 *	34.6	Virtus	3	880	44.53%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	820	32.02%	23.45%
25	2020-09-26	35.1	Virtus	2	874	49.89%	@ Juvenes Dogana	0	773	26.96%	23.16%