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2004-05 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Falkirk

75 pts

Relegated

Raith Rovers

16 pts

Partick Thistle · 39 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Falkirk

9.71 points above expected

75 points · 65.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Raith Rovers

12.95 points below expected

16 points · 28.95 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Falkirk Promoted 36 22 9 5 75 66 30 +36 65.29 +9.71
2 St. Mirren 36 15 15 6 60 41 23 +18 53.66 +6.34
3 Clyde 36 16 12 8 60 35 29 +6 57.91 +2.09
4 Queen of the South 36 14 9 13 51 36 38 -2 50.52 +0.48
5 Airdrie United 36 14 8 14 50 44 48 -4 48.54 +1.46
6 Ross County 36 13 8 15 47 40 37 +3 54.00 -7.00
7 Hamilton Academical 36 12 11 13 47 35 36 -1 45.38 +1.62
8 St. Johnstone 36 12 10 14 46 38 39 -1 49.29 -3.29
9 Partick Thistle Relegated 36 10 9 17 39 38 52 -14 47.24 -8.24
10 Raith Rovers Relegated 36 3 7 26 16 26 67 -41 28.95 -12.95

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Falkirk 75 65.29 +9.71
2 St. Mirren 60 53.66 +6.34
3 Clyde 60 57.91 +2.09
4 Hamilton Academical 47 45.38 +1.62
5 Airdrie United 50 48.54 +1.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Raith Rovers 16 28.95 -12.95
2 Partick Thistle 39 47.24 -8.24
3 Ross County 47 54.00 -7.00
4 St. Johnstone 46 49.29 -3.29
5 Queen of the South 51 50.52 +0.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 5 Aug 21 – Sep 18 1 in 168
2 Airdrie United 4 Nov 13 – Dec 4 1 in 128
3 St. Mirren 5 Apr 2 – Apr 30 1 in 72
4 Clyde 4 Aug 7 – Aug 28 1 in 29
5 Hamilton Academical 3 Dec 11 – Dec 26 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 3 Apr 23 – May 7 1 in 116
2 St. Mirren 4 Dec 4 – Dec 26 1 in 74
3 Raith Rovers 7 Aug 28 – Oct 16 1 in 69
4 Partick Thistle 4 Sep 4 – Sep 25 1 in 59
5 Queen of the South 4 Dec 18 – Jan 15 1 in 46

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 19 Aug 14 – Dec 26 1 in 2,494
2 St. Mirren 14 Jan 22 – May 7 1 in 697
3 Partick Thistle 6 Dec 29 – Feb 12 1 in 42
4 Airdrie United 6 Nov 13 – Dec 18 1 in 31
5 Clyde 9 Dec 11 – Mar 8 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Mirren 7 Nov 27 – Jan 15 1 in 117
2 Ross County 8 Oct 30 – Dec 18 1 in 92
3 Partick Thistle 8 Nov 13 – Dec 27 1 in 33
4 St. Johnstone 6 Jan 3 – Mar 5 1 in 32
5 Hamilton Academical 7 Aug 14 – Sep 25 1 in 27

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Falkirk 1687 75 -24 6 9.6 -3.6
St. Mirren 1634 60 +53 13 7.3 +5.7
Clyde 1578 60 -14 5 7.8 -2.8
Queen of the South 1562 51 +7 8 6.5 +1.5
Airdrie United 1533 50 -12 7 7.5 -0.5
Hamilton Academical 1554 47 +15 8 6.9 +1.1
Ross County 1589 47 -8 5 7.1 -2.1
St. Johnstone 1528 46 +8 5 6.6 -1.6
Partick Thistle 1475 39 -19 7 6.4 +0.6
Raith Rovers 1343 16 -6 4 4.0 +0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU CLY FAL HA PT QOTS RR RC SJ SM
Airdrie United —
2-0-2
4.43
0-1-3
4.34
2-1-1
5.72
1-1-2
5.77
1-1-2
5.12
3-1-0
7.75
2-0-2
4.81
2-2-0
5.38
1-1-2
4.72
Clyde
2-0-2
6.70
 —
0-2-2
4.50
3-0-1
6.86
1-2-1
6.80
3-0-1
6.40
3-1-0
8.18
3-1-0
5.62
1-2-1
6.90
0-4-0
6.24
Falkirk
3-1-0
6.79
2-2-0
6.62
 —
1-2-1
6.90
3-0-1
7.19
2-1-1
6.69
3-1-0
8.69
3-1-0
6.74
4-0-0
7.14
1-1-2
6.13
Hamilton Academical
1-1-2
5.39
1-0-3
4.27
1-2-1
4.26
 —
2-1-1
5.77
2-2-0
4.82
3-1-0
7.22
0-1-3
4.52
1-1-2
5.22
1-2-1
4.71
Partick Thistle
2-1-1
5.35
1-2-1
4.33
1-0-3
3.98
1-1-2
5.34
 —
1-0-3
5.05
2-1-1
7.44
2-1-1
4.74
0-1-3
5.23
0-2-2
4.86
Queen of the South
2-1-1
6.00
1-0-3
4.72
1-1-2
4.47
0-2-2
6.30
3-0-1
6.06
 —
3-1-0
7.84
1-1-2
5.32
2-1-1
6.02
1-2-1
5.15
Raith Rovers
0-1-3
3.41
0-1-3
3.02
0-1-3
2.55
0-1-3
3.91
1-1-2
3.70
0-1-3
3.33
 —
0-1-3
3.33
1-0-3
3.72
1-0-3
3.02
Ross County
2-0-2
6.30
0-1-3
5.50
0-1-3
4.40
3-1-0
6.60
1-1-2
6.37
2-1-1
5.79
3-1-0
7.83
 —
2-1-1
5.85
0-1-3
5.78
St. Johnstone
0-2-2
5.73
1-2-1
4.22
0-0-4
4.00
2-1-1
5.89
3-1-0
5.89
1-1-2
5.10
3-0-1
7.44
1-1-2
5.27
 —
1-2-1
4.85
St. Mirren
2-1-1
6.39
0-4-0
4.88
2-1-1
4.99
1-2-1
6.41
2-2-0
6.26
1-2-1
5.97
3-0-1
8.18
3-1-0
5.33
1-2-1
6.26
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +11.7
Allowed 0.77 -10.5
Differential 0.95 +7.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.44%13.61%5.56%2.78%1.11%0.28%32.78%
113.61%13.89%7.22%2.78%0.83%—38.33%
25.56%7.22%2.78%1.11%1.11%—17.78%
32.78%2.78%1.11%1.11%——7.78%
41.11%0.83%1.11%———3.06%
5+0.28%—————0.28%
Total32.78%38.33%17.78%7.78%3.06%0.28%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.11 +0.00
SD 1.06 1.06 1.53
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%——2.78%30.56%
18.33%13.89%2.78%5.56%——30.56%
25.56%13.89%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
3—5.56%2.78%———8.33%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%50.00%16.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.07 1.15 1.53
CV 0.88 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.44%8.33%2.78%2.78%——33.33%
127.78%11.11%2.78%5.56%——47.22%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total52.78%25.00%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 0.81 +0.17
SD 0.97 1.04 1.18
CV 1.00 1.29 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
119.44%11.11%8.33%———38.89%
28.33%5.56%5.56%———19.44%
38.33%8.33%—2.78%——19.44%
4—2.78%5.56%———8.33%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total44.44%30.56%22.22%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.83 +1.00
SD 1.28 0.88 1.45
CV 0.70 1.05 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%19.44%—5.56%——27.78%
116.67%22.22%8.33%2.78%——50.00%
211.11%2.78%5.56%———19.44%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.56%47.22%13.89%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.00 -0.03
SD 0.77 0.89 1.30
CV 0.80 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%—5.56%5.56%—30.56%
111.11%13.89%19.44%2.78%2.78%—50.00%
22.78%2.78%——2.78%—8.33%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%30.56%22.22%8.33%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.44 -0.39
SD 1.07 1.30 1.78
CV 1.01 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
116.67%13.89%2.78%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%2.78%—2.78%—22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.56%47.22%11.11%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.06 -0.06
SD 0.89 1.01 1.33
CV 0.89 0.96 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%16.67%27.78%5.56%——52.78%
12.78%8.33%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
22.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%—13.89%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total8.33%27.78%41.67%13.89%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.86 -1.14
SD 0.91 1.05 1.20
CV 1.27 0.56 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%30.56%——2.78%—36.11%
18.33%16.67%5.56%———30.56%
25.56%13.89%2.78%2.78%——25.00%
3—2.78%————2.78%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total19.44%66.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.03 +0.08
SD 1.12 0.81 1.46
CV 1.00 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
111.11%16.67%8.33%5.56%——41.67%
22.78%5.56%————8.33%
38.33%—————8.33%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%30.56%16.67%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.08 -0.03
SD 1.15 1.13 1.92
CV 1.08 1.04 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%8.33%2.78%———36.11%
113.89%11.11%2.78%———27.78%
25.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
311.11%—2.78%———13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%27.78%13.89%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.64 +0.50
SD 1.07 0.83 1.23
CV 0.94 1.30 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Falkirk 1687 75 65.29 +9.71 89.0% 48 52 60 65 71 79 82
St. Mirren 1634 60 53.66 +6.34 82.0% 38 42 48 53 59 66 79
Ross County 1589 47 54.00 -7.00 18.0% 37 41 49 54 59 65 70
Clyde 1578 60 57.91 +2.09 61.0% 30 44 52 58 64 71 76
Queen of the South 1562 51 50.52 +0.48 55.0% 33 39 46 50 55 62 67
Hamilton Academical 1554 47 45.38 +1.62 62.0% 27 32 40 45 50 57 63
Airdrie United 1533 50 48.54 +1.46 66.0% 31 37 44 48 53 59 63
St. Johnstone 1528 46 49.29 -3.29 36.0% 31 36 44 49 54 62 64
Partick Thistle 1475 39 47.24 -8.24 19.0% 28 33 42 48 53 60 63
Raith Rovers 1343 16 28.95 -12.95 3.0% 12 19 24 29 34 39 44

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.11%
No Edge
39.44%27.22%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.26 Elo pts.
235 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.13 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Falkirk, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.42/gm
Runaway
00.180.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.92 * Some Luck: 5.92 to 8.88 * Lucky: 8.88 to 11.85 * Wild Swing: 11.85 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.31 * Close: 1.31 to 1.97 * Off: 1.97 to 2.62 * Way Off: 2.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.7 * A Surprise: 0.7 to 1.12 * Several Surprises: 1.12 to 1.54 * Many Surprises: 1.54 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.56 points
Some Luck
07.4019
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.644
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
Falkirk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Raith Rovers
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 92.75
1.97
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%67%100%
Blowouts
Expected
10%
Rare
0%10%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.85
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.12
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.61
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.058
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Falkirk58.00%21.00%7.00%3.00%8.00%2.00%—1.00%——
St. Mirren9.00%13.00%17.00%11.00%11.00%16.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%—
Clyde20.00%23.00%21.00%8.00%9.00%4.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%—
Queen of the South1.00%8.00%10.00%18.00%15.00%16.00%9.00%17.00%5.00%1.00%
Airdrie United3.00%6.00%4.00%9.00%13.00%22.00%13.00%19.00%11.00%—
Ross County6.00%14.00%18.00%25.00%5.00%10.00%12.00%7.00%3.00%—
Hamilton Academical1.00%2.00%6.00%1.00%11.00%9.00%21.00%18.00%28.00%3.00%
St. Johnstone1.00%10.00%8.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%1.00%
Partick Thistle1.00%3.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%10.00%23.00%5.00%
Raith Rovers———————1.00%9.00%90.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Falkirk 58.00% 42.00% —
Clyde 20.00% 77.00% 3.00%
St. Mirren 9.00% 87.00% 4.00%
Ross County 6.00% 91.00% 3.00%
Queen of the South 1.00% 93.00% 6.00%
Airdrie United 3.00% 86.00% 11.00%
St. Johnstone 1.00% 84.00% 15.00%
Partick Thistle 1.00% 71.00% 28.00%
Hamilton Academical 1.00% 68.00% 31.00%
Raith Rovers — 1.00% 99.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-08-07 Falkirk W 2-045.1 1535 1503 48.48% 22.03% 29.49%+0.22 +13.2 3
2004-08-07 @ St. Mirren L 0-245.1 1503 1535 29.49% 22.03% 48.48%-0.22 -13.2 0
2004-08-07 Partick Thistle W 2-160.1 1580 1570 45.68% 22.18% 32.14%+0.13 +7.1 3
2004-08-07 @ Clyde L 1-260.1 1570 1580 32.14% 22.18% 45.68%-0.13 -7.1 0
2004-08-07 Raith Rovers W 2-044.1 1537 1490 50.57% 21.88% 27.55%+0.29 +12.4 3
2004-08-07 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-244.1 1490 1537 27.55% 21.88% 50.57%-0.29 -12.4 0
2004-08-07 Ross County L 0-157.7 1588 1606 41.87% 22.30% 35.83%+0.02 -9.3 0
2004-08-07 @ Queen of the South W 1-057.7 1606 1588 35.83% 22.30% 41.87%-0.02 +9.3 3
2004-08-07 St. Johnstone W 1-050.2 1554 1519 48.94% 22.00% 29.06%+0.24 +6.9 3
2004-08-07 @ Airdrie United L 0-150.2 1519 1554 29.06% 22.00% 48.94%-0.24 -6.9 0
2004-08-14 Airdrie United W 3-264.5 1562 1561 44.40% 22.23% 33.37%+0.09 +6.9 3
2004-08-14 @ Partick Thistle L 2-364.5 1561 1562 33.37% 22.23% 44.40%-0.09 -6.9 3
2004-08-14 Clyde L 2-361.3 1477 1587 29.31% 22.02% 48.67%-0.38 -6.2 0
2004-08-14 @ Raith Rovers W 3-261.3 1587 1477 48.67% 22.02% 29.31%+0.38 +6.2 6
2004-08-14 Hamilton Academical D 1-166.8 1490 1550 35.80% 22.30% 41.91%-0.16 +0.3 1
2004-08-14 @ Falkirk D 1-166.8 1550 1490 41.91% 22.30% 35.80%+0.16 -0.3 4
2004-08-14 Queen of the South L 1-354.9 1512 1579 34.88% 22.28% 42.84%-0.19 -13.1 0
2004-08-14 @ St. Johnstone W 3-154.9 1579 1512 42.84% 22.28% 34.88%+0.19 +13.1 3
2004-08-14 St. Mirren D 1-170.9 1615 1548 52.95% 21.66% 25.38%+0.38 -1.3 4
2004-08-14 @ Ross County D 1-170.9 1548 1615 25.38% 21.66% 52.95%-0.38 +1.3 4
2004-08-21 Falkirk L 1-360.9 1592 1490 57.04% 21.17% 21.79%+0.52 -19.7 3
2004-08-21 @ Queen of the South W 3-160.9 1490 1592 21.79% 21.17% 57.04%-0.52 +19.7 4
2004-08-21 Partick Thistle L 0-155.5 1550 1569 41.50% 22.30% 36.19%+0.01 -9.2 4
2004-08-21 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-055.5 1569 1550 36.19% 22.30% 41.50%-0.01 +9.2 6
2004-08-21 Raith Rovers D 1-166.5 1554 1471 54.91% 21.45% 23.64%+0.45 -1.5 4
2004-08-21 @ Airdrie United D 1-166.5 1471 1554 23.64% 21.45% 54.91%-0.45 +1.5 1
2004-08-21 Ross County W 1-056.3 1593 1613 41.44% 22.30% 36.26%+0.00 +8.3 9
2004-08-21 @ Clyde L 0-156.3 1613 1593 36.26% 22.30% 41.44%+0.00 -8.3 4
2004-08-21 St. Johnstone W 2-155.3 1549 1499 50.81% 21.86% 27.33%+0.30 +6.2 7
2004-08-21 @ St. Mirren L 1-255.3 1499 1549 27.33% 21.86% 50.81%-0.30 -6.2 0
2004-08-28 Airdrie United W 5-048.9 1510 1553 38.18% 22.32% 39.50%-0.09 +39.0 7
2004-08-28 @ Falkirk L 0-548.9 1553 1510 39.50% 22.32% 38.18%+0.09 -39.0 4
2004-08-28 Clyde L 0-156.7 1573 1602 40.19% 22.32% 37.49%-0.03 -9.0 3
2004-08-28 @ Queen of the South W 1-056.7 1602 1573 37.49% 22.32% 40.19%+0.03 +9.0 12
2004-08-28 Hamilton Academical W 1-051.8 1555 1540 46.27% 22.15% 31.58%+0.15 +7.4 10
2004-08-28 @ St. Mirren L 0-151.8 1540 1555 31.58% 22.15% 46.27%-0.15 -7.4 4
2004-08-28 Partick Thistle L 0-159.1 1605 1579 47.84% 22.07% 30.09%+0.20 -10.3 4
2004-08-28 @ Ross County W 1-059.1 1579 1605 30.09% 22.07% 47.84%-0.20 +10.3 9
2004-08-28 Raith Rovers W 1-046.8 1493 1472 47.06% 22.11% 30.83%+0.18 +7.2 3
2004-08-28 @ St. Johnstone L 0-146.8 1472 1493 30.83% 22.11% 47.06%-0.18 -7.2 1
2004-09-04 Falkirk L 1-457.7 1589 1549 49.58% 21.96% 28.46%+0.26 -24.6 9
2004-09-04 @ Partick Thistle W 4-157.7 1549 1589 28.46% 21.96% 49.58%-0.26 +24.6 10
2004-09-04 Queen of the South L 0-152.9 1514 1564 37.24% 22.32% 40.44%-0.12 -8.4 4
2004-09-04 @ Airdrie United W 1-052.9 1564 1514 40.44% 22.32% 37.24%+0.12 +8.4 6
2004-09-04 Ross County L 1-255.6 1465 1595 26.98% 21.83% 51.20%-0.46 -6.1 1
2004-09-04 @ Raith Rovers W 2-155.6 1595 1465 51.20% 21.83% 26.98%+0.46 +6.1 7
2004-09-04 St. Johnstone D 1-166.6 1533 1500 48.62% 22.02% 29.36%+0.23 -0.9 5
2004-09-04 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-166.6 1500 1533 29.36% 22.02% 48.62%-0.23 +0.9 4
2004-09-04 St. Mirren D 0-065.5 1610 1563 50.58% 21.88% 27.54%+0.29 -1.2 13
2004-09-04 @ Clyde D 0-065.5 1563 1610 27.54% 21.88% 50.58%-0.29 +1.2 11
2004-09-11 Airdrie United L 1-266.3 1609 1506 57.23% 21.14% 21.63%+0.53 -11.4 13
2004-09-11 @ Clyde W 2-166.3 1506 1609 21.63% 21.14% 57.23%-0.53 +11.4 7
2004-09-11 Hamilton Academical D 1-169.1 1572 1532 49.56% 21.96% 28.48%+0.26 -1.0 7
2004-09-11 @ Queen of the South D 1-169.1 1532 1572 28.48% 21.96% 49.56%-0.26 +1.0 6
2004-09-11 Partick Thistle W 2-159.9 1564 1564 44.20% 22.24% 33.56%+0.09 +7.3 14
2004-09-11 @ St. Mirren L 1-259.9 1564 1564 33.56% 22.24% 44.20%-0.09 -7.3 9
2004-09-11 Raith Rovers W 4-251.3 1573 1459 58.39% 20.97% 20.64%+0.58 +7.5 13
2004-09-11 @ Falkirk L 2-451.3 1459 1573 20.64% 20.97% 58.39%-0.58 -7.5 1
2004-09-11 St. Johnstone L 0-159.2 1601 1501 56.76% 21.21% 22.03%+0.51 -12.0 7
2004-09-11 @ Ross County W 1-059.2 1501 1601 22.03% 21.21% 56.76%-0.51 +12.0 7
2004-09-18 Clyde L 0-154.0 1533 1598 35.15% 22.28% 42.57%-0.18 -8.1 6
2004-09-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-054.0 1598 1533 42.57% 22.28% 35.15%+0.18 +8.1 16
2004-09-18 Falkirk L 1-259.2 1513 1581 34.76% 22.27% 42.97%-0.20 -7.5 7
2004-09-18 @ St. Johnstone W 2-159.2 1581 1513 42.97% 22.27% 34.76%+0.20 +7.5 16
2004-09-18 Queen of the South L 1-262.6 1557 1571 42.30% 22.29% 35.41%+0.03 -8.8 9
2004-09-18 @ Partick Thistle W 2-162.6 1571 1557 35.41% 22.29% 42.30%-0.03 +8.8 10
2004-09-18 Ross County L 1-259.4 1517 1589 34.16% 22.26% 43.59%-0.22 -7.4 7
2004-09-18 @ Airdrie United W 2-159.4 1589 1517 43.59% 22.26% 34.16%+0.22 +7.4 10
2004-09-18 St. Mirren L 0-342.6 1452 1571 28.15% 21.93% 49.92%-0.42 -18.4 1
2004-09-18 @ Raith Rovers W 3-042.6 1571 1452 49.92% 21.93% 28.15%+0.42 +18.4 17
2004-09-25 Airdrie United D 1-169.1 1590 1510 54.52% 21.49% 23.99%+0.43 -1.5 18
2004-09-25 @ St. Mirren D 1-169.1 1510 1590 23.99% 21.49% 54.52%-0.43 +1.5 8
2004-09-25 Clyde D 1-171.5 1588 1606 41.83% 22.30% 35.87%+0.02 -0.3 17
2004-09-25 @ Falkirk D 1-171.5 1606 1588 35.87% 22.30% 41.83%-0.02 +0.3 17
2004-09-25 Partick Thistle W 2-159.2 1506 1548 38.28% 22.32% 39.39%-0.09 +8.3 10
2004-09-25 @ St. Johnstone L 1-259.2 1548 1506 39.39% 22.32% 38.28%+0.09 -8.3 9
2004-09-25 Queen of the South L 1-253.2 1433 1580 25.09% 21.63% 53.28%-0.53 -5.8 1
2004-09-25 @ Raith Rovers W 2-153.2 1580 1433 53.28% 21.63% 25.09%+0.53 +5.8 13
2004-09-25 Ross County L 1-259.9 1525 1596 34.25% 22.26% 43.49%-0.21 -7.5 6
2004-09-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-159.9 1596 1525 43.49% 22.26% 34.25%+0.21 +7.5 13
2004-10-02 Falkirk L 0-158.9 1604 1588 46.38% 22.15% 31.48%+0.16 -10.1 13
2004-10-02 @ Ross County W 1-058.9 1588 1604 31.48% 22.15% 46.38%-0.16 +10.1 20
2004-10-02 Hamilton Academical L 0-249.0 1511 1518 43.34% 22.26% 34.40%+0.06 -17.9 8
2004-10-02 @ Airdrie United W 2-049.0 1518 1511 34.40% 22.26% 43.34%-0.06 +18.0 9
2004-10-02 Raith Rovers W 2-039.6 1540 1428 58.17% 21.00% 20.82%+0.57 +9.7 12
2004-10-02 @ Partick Thistle L 0-239.6 1428 1540 20.82% 21.00% 58.17%-0.57 -9.7 1
2004-10-02 St. Johnstone W 1-049.7 1606 1514 55.90% 21.32% 22.78%+0.48 +5.6 20
2004-10-02 @ Clyde L 0-149.7 1514 1606 22.78% 21.32% 55.90%-0.48 -5.6 10
2004-10-02 St. Mirren W 2-161.3 1586 1588 43.90% 22.25% 33.85%+0.08 +7.4 16
2004-10-02 @ Queen of the South L 1-261.3 1588 1586 33.85% 22.25% 43.90%-0.08 -7.4 18
2004-10-16 Falkirk L 0-154.1 1536 1598 35.42% 22.29% 42.29%-0.18 -8.1 9
2004-10-16 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-054.1 1598 1536 42.29% 22.29% 35.42%+0.18 +8.1 23
2004-10-16 Partick Thistle W 4-258.3 1493 1550 36.28% 22.30% 41.42%-0.15 +13.4 11
2004-10-16 @ Airdrie United L 2-458.3 1550 1493 41.42% 22.30% 36.28%+0.15 -13.4 12
2004-10-16 Raith Rovers W 2-039.5 1612 1418 66.24% 19.35% 14.42%+0.91 +6.8 23
2004-10-16 @ Clyde L 0-239.5 1418 1612 14.42% 19.35% 66.24%-0.91 -6.8 1
2004-10-16 Ross County W 3-266.5 1581 1594 42.45% 22.29% 35.27%+0.04 +7.2 21
2004-10-16 @ St. Mirren L 2-366.5 1594 1581 35.27% 22.29% 42.45%-0.04 -7.2 13
2004-10-16 St. Johnstone L 0-158.8 1593 1509 55.02% 21.44% 23.55%+0.45 -11.7 16
2004-10-16 @ Queen of the South W 1-058.8 1509 1593 23.55% 21.44% 55.02%-0.45 +11.7 13
2004-10-23 Airdrie United D 1-166.3 1520 1506 46.14% 22.16% 31.70%+0.15 -0.7 14
2004-10-23 @ St. Johnstone D 1-166.3 1506 1520 31.70% 22.16% 46.14%-0.15 +0.7 12
2004-10-23 Clyde D 0-064.9 1536 1619 32.77% 22.21% 45.02%-0.26 +0.6 13
2004-10-23 @ Partick Thistle D 0-064.9 1619 1536 45.02% 22.21% 32.77%+0.26 -0.6 24
2004-10-23 Hamilton Academical D 2-269.3 1411 1527 28.51% 21.96% 49.54%-0.40 +0.8 2
2004-10-23 @ Raith Rovers D 2-269.3 1527 1411 49.54% 21.96% 28.51%+0.40 -0.7 10
2004-10-23 Queen of the South W 1-054.3 1587 1581 44.98% 22.21% 32.81%+0.11 +7.6 16
2004-10-23 @ Ross County L 0-154.3 1581 1587 32.81% 22.21% 44.98%-0.11 -7.6 16
2004-10-23 St. Mirren D 0-065.9 1606 1588 46.75% 22.13% 31.12%+0.17 -0.8 24
2004-10-23 @ Falkirk D 0-065.9 1588 1606 31.12% 22.13% 46.75%-0.17 +0.8 22
2004-10-30 Falkirk L 1-354.3 1507 1606 30.71% 22.11% 47.18%-0.33 -11.8 12
2004-10-30 @ Airdrie United W 3-154.3 1606 1507 47.18% 22.11% 30.71%+0.33 +11.8 27
2004-10-30 Queen of the South W 2-049.4 1618 1574 50.13% 21.91% 27.95%+0.28 +12.6 27
2004-10-30 @ Clyde L 0-249.4 1574 1618 27.95% 21.91% 50.13%-0.28 -12.6 16
2004-10-30 Ross County W 4-050.8 1537 1594 36.16% 22.30% 41.54%-0.15 +32.9 16
2004-10-30 @ Partick Thistle L 0-450.8 1594 1537 41.54% 22.30% 36.16%+0.15 -32.9 16
2004-10-30 St. Johnstone W 1-050.8 1412 1520 29.54% 22.03% 48.42%-0.37 +10.4 5
2004-10-30 @ Raith Rovers L 0-150.8 1520 1412 48.42% 22.03% 29.54%+0.37 -10.4 14
2004-10-30 St. Mirren D 2-275.5 1527 1589 35.51% 22.29% 42.20%-0.17 +0.2 11
2004-10-30 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-275.5 1589 1527 42.20% 22.29% 35.51%+0.17 -0.2 23
2004-11-06 Airdrie United W 1-048.4 1561 1495 52.80% 21.68% 25.52%+0.37 +6.2 19
2004-11-06 @ Queen of the South L 0-148.4 1495 1561 25.52% 21.68% 52.80%-0.37 -6.2 12
2004-11-06 Clyde D 0-066.4 1589 1631 38.32% 22.32% 39.35%-0.09 +0.0 24
2004-11-06 @ St. Mirren D 0-066.4 1631 1589 39.35% 22.32% 38.32%+0.09 -0.0 28
2004-11-06 Hamilton Academical W 3-045.5 1509 1527 41.78% 22.30% 35.92%+0.01 +22.5 17
2004-11-06 @ St. Johnstone L 0-345.5 1527 1509 35.92% 22.30% 41.78%-0.01 -22.5 11
2004-11-13 Clyde W 3-161.0 1489 1631 25.65% 21.69% 52.65%-0.51 +18.3 15
2004-11-13 @ Airdrie United L 1-361.0 1631 1489 52.65% 21.69% 25.65%+0.51 -18.3 28
2004-11-13 Falkirk L 0-242.1 1422 1617 20.27% 20.90% 58.83%-0.74 -9.5 5
2004-11-13 @ Raith Rovers W 2-042.1 1617 1422 58.83% 20.90% 20.27%+0.74 +9.5 30
2004-11-13 Queen of the South W 1-054.2 1504 1567 35.42% 22.29% 42.29%-0.18 +9.3 14
2004-11-13 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-154.2 1567 1504 42.29% 22.29% 35.42%+0.18 -9.3 19
2004-11-13 Ross County D 1-168.7 1532 1561 40.10% 22.32% 37.58%-0.04 -0.1 18
2004-11-13 @ St. Johnstone D 1-168.7 1561 1532 37.58% 22.32% 40.10%+0.04 +0.1 17
2004-11-13 St. Mirren L 0-351.2 1570 1589 41.62% 22.30% 36.08%+0.01 -25.2 16
2004-11-13 @ Partick Thistle W 3-051.2 1589 1570 36.08% 22.30% 41.62%-0.01 +25.2 27
2004-11-20 Airdrie United L 1-263.2 1561 1507 51.34% 21.82% 26.84%+0.32 -10.4 17
2004-11-20 @ Ross County W 2-163.2 1507 1561 26.84% 21.82% 51.34%-0.32 +10.4 18
2004-11-20 Hamilton Academical W 2-156.1 1612 1514 56.62% 21.23% 22.15%+0.51 +5.1 31
2004-11-20 @ Clyde L 1-256.1 1514 1612 22.15% 21.23% 56.62%-0.51 -5.1 14
2004-11-20 Partick Thistle W 1-052.0 1558 1544 46.08% 22.16% 31.76%+0.15 +7.4 22
2004-11-20 @ Queen of the South L 0-152.0 1544 1558 31.76% 22.16% 46.08%-0.15 -7.4 16
2004-11-20 Raith Rovers W 1-043.1 1614 1413 66.87% 19.18% 13.95%+0.95 +3.5 30
2004-11-20 @ St. Mirren L 0-143.1 1413 1614 13.95% 19.18% 66.87%-0.95 -3.5 5
2004-11-20 St. Johnstone W 3-152.9 1627 1532 56.28% 21.27% 22.44%+0.50 +9.0 33
2004-11-20 @ Falkirk L 1-352.9 1532 1627 22.44% 21.27% 56.28%-0.50 -9.0 18
2004-11-23 Partick Thistle W 3-045.4 1636 1537 56.68% 21.22% 22.10%+0.51 +14.9 36
2004-11-23 @ Falkirk L 0-345.4 1537 1636 22.10% 21.22% 56.68%-0.51 -14.9 16
2004-11-23 Raith Rovers D 1-164.4 1551 1409 61.28% 20.46% 18.25%+0.69 -2.2 18
2004-11-23 @ Ross County D 1-164.4 1409 1551 18.25% 20.46% 61.28%-0.69 +2.1 6
2004-11-27 Airdrie United L 1-355.0 1509 1518 42.99% 22.27% 34.74%+0.05 -15.4 14
2004-11-27 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-155.0 1518 1509 34.74% 22.27% 42.99%-0.05 +15.4 21
2004-11-27 Clyde W 3-052.2 1522 1617 31.17% 22.13% 46.69%-0.31 +27.7 21
2004-11-27 @ St. Johnstone L 0-352.2 1617 1522 46.69% 22.13% 31.17%+0.31 -27.7 31
2004-11-27 Partick Thistle D 0-057.3 1411 1522 29.19% 22.01% 48.80%-0.38 +1.0 7
2004-11-27 @ Raith Rovers D 0-057.3 1522 1411 48.80% 22.01% 29.19%+0.38 -1.0 17
2004-11-27 Queen of the South D 2-277.5 1617 1565 51.11% 21.84% 27.06%+0.31 -0.9 31
2004-11-27 @ St. Mirren D 2-277.5 1565 1617 27.06% 21.84% 51.11%-0.31 +0.9 23
2004-11-27 Ross County D 2-278.1 1651 1549 57.02% 21.17% 21.80%+0.52 -1.3 37
2004-11-27 @ Falkirk D 2-278.1 1549 1651 21.80% 21.17% 57.02%-0.52 +1.3 19
2004-12-04 Falkirk L 0-252.9 1590 1649 35.81% 22.30% 41.90%-0.16 -15.4 31
2004-12-04 @ Clyde W 2-052.9 1649 1590 41.90% 22.30% 35.81%+0.16 +15.4 40
2004-12-04 Hamilton Academical D 1-167.1 1550 1493 51.71% 21.78% 26.50%+0.33 -1.2 20
2004-12-04 @ Ross County D 1-167.1 1493 1550 26.50% 21.78% 51.71%-0.33 +1.2 15
2004-12-04 Raith Rovers W 2-038.7 1566 1412 62.48% 20.23% 17.29%+0.74 +8.2 26
2004-12-04 @ Queen of the South L 0-238.7 1412 1566 17.29% 20.23% 62.48%-0.74 -8.2 7
2004-12-04 St. Johnstone L 0-448.5 1521 1550 40.17% 22.32% 37.51%-0.03 -32.0 17
2004-12-04 @ Partick Thistle W 4-048.5 1550 1521 37.51% 22.32% 40.17%+0.03 +32.0 24
2004-12-04 St. Mirren W 3-268.8 1533 1616 32.67% 22.20% 45.13%-0.26 +8.8 24
2004-12-04 @ Airdrie United L 2-368.8 1616 1533 45.13% 22.20% 32.67%+0.26 -8.8 31
2004-12-11 Falkirk L 0-157.4 1608 1665 36.18% 22.30% 41.52%-0.15 -8.2 31
2004-12-11 @ St. Mirren W 1-057.4 1665 1608 41.52% 22.30% 36.18%+0.15 +8.2 43
2004-12-11 Partick Thistle D 1-167.9 1574 1489 55.10% 21.42% 23.47%+0.45 -1.5 32
2004-12-11 @ Clyde D 1-167.9 1489 1574 23.47% 21.42% 55.10%-0.45 +1.5 18
2004-12-11 Raith Rovers W 1-041.9 1494 1404 55.70% 21.35% 22.95%+0.47 +5.6 18
2004-12-11 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-141.9 1404 1494 22.95% 21.35% 55.70%-0.47 -5.6 7
2004-12-11 Ross County W 1-052.2 1574 1549 47.68% 22.08% 30.24%+0.20 +7.1 29
2004-12-11 @ Queen of the South L 0-152.2 1549 1574 30.24% 22.08% 47.68%-0.20 -7.1 20
2004-12-11 St. Johnstone D 0-064.0 1542 1582 38.58% 22.32% 39.09%-0.08 +0.0 25
2004-12-11 @ Airdrie United D 0-064.0 1582 1542 39.09% 22.32% 38.58%+0.08 -0.0 25
2004-12-18 Airdrie United L 0-240.2 1399 1542 25.42% 21.67% 52.92%-0.52 -11.6 7
2004-12-18 @ Raith Rovers W 2-040.2 1542 1399 52.92% 21.67% 25.42%+0.52 +11.6 28
2004-12-18 Clyde L 0-154.9 1542 1573 39.93% 22.32% 37.75%-0.04 -8.9 20
2004-12-18 @ Ross County W 1-054.9 1573 1542 37.75% 22.32% 39.93%+0.04 +8.9 35
2004-12-18 Hamilton Academical L 0-151.4 1491 1500 42.94% 22.27% 34.78%+0.05 -9.4 18
2004-12-18 @ Partick Thistle W 1-051.4 1500 1491 34.78% 22.27% 42.94%-0.05 +9.5 21
2004-12-18 Queen of the South W 4-258.3 1673 1581 55.87% 21.33% 22.81%+0.48 +8.2 46
2004-12-18 @ Falkirk L 2-458.3 1581 1673 22.81% 21.33% 55.87%-0.48 -8.2 29
2004-12-18 St. Mirren W 1-055.6 1582 1599 41.86% 22.30% 35.85%+0.02 +8.2 28
2004-12-18 @ St. Johnstone L 0-155.6 1599 1582 35.85% 22.30% 41.86%-0.02 -8.2 31
2004-12-26 Airdrie United W 1-051.3 1681 1554 59.82% 20.73% 19.45%+0.63 +4.8 49
2004-12-26 @ Falkirk L 0-151.3 1554 1681 19.45% 20.73% 59.82%-0.63 -4.9 28
2004-12-26 Hamilton Academical L 0-158.7 1591 1510 54.71% 21.47% 23.82%+0.44 -11.6 31
2004-12-26 @ St. Mirren W 1-058.7 1510 1591 23.82% 21.47% 54.71%-0.44 +11.6 24
2004-12-26 Raith Rovers W 2-037.3 1590 1387 67.07% 19.12% 13.80%+0.96 +6.5 31
2004-12-26 @ St. Johnstone L 0-237.3 1387 1590 13.80% 19.12% 67.07%-0.96 -6.6 7
2004-12-27 Partick Thistle W 2-153.9 1533 1481 51.07% 21.84% 27.09%+0.31 +6.1 23
2004-12-27 @ Ross County L 1-253.9 1481 1533 27.09% 21.84% 51.07%-0.31 -6.1 18
2004-12-29 Falkirk W 2-168.5 1475 1686 18.88% 20.61% 60.51%-0.81 +12.0 21
2004-12-29 @ Partick Thistle L 1-268.5 1686 1475 60.51% 20.61% 18.88%+0.81 -12.0 49
2004-12-29 Queen of the South W 2-050.3 1549 1573 40.84% 22.31% 36.85%-0.01 +15.8 31
2004-12-29 @ Airdrie United L 0-250.3 1573 1549 36.85% 22.31% 40.84%+0.01 -15.8 29
2004-12-29 Ross County L 1-442.2 1380 1539 23.81% 21.47% 54.72%-0.58 -13.4 7
2004-12-29 @ Raith Rovers W 4-142.2 1539 1380 54.72% 21.47% 23.81%+0.58 +13.4 26
2004-12-29 St. Johnstone L 0-347.7 1521 1597 33.65% 22.24% 44.11%-0.23 -21.3 24
2004-12-29 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-047.7 1597 1521 44.11% 22.24% 33.65%+0.23 +21.3 34
2005-01-01 Airdrie United W 1-053.2 1582 1565 46.55% 22.14% 31.31%+0.16 +7.3 38
2005-01-01 @ Clyde L 0-153.2 1565 1582 31.31% 22.14% 46.55%-0.16 -7.3 31
2005-01-01 Hamilton Academical L 1-262.9 1558 1500 51.81% 21.77% 26.42%+0.34 -10.4 29
2005-01-01 @ Queen of the South W 2-162.9 1500 1558 26.42% 21.77% 51.81%-0.34 +10.4 27
2005-01-01 Partick Thistle D 1-168.1 1580 1487 55.97% 21.32% 22.71%+0.48 -1.6 32
2005-01-01 @ St. Mirren D 1-168.1 1487 1580 22.71% 21.32% 55.97%-0.48 +1.6 22
2005-01-01 Raith Rovers W 2-037.3 1674 1367 75.04% 16.40% 8.56%+1.40 +4.0 52
2005-01-01 @ Falkirk L 0-237.3 1367 1674 8.56% 16.40% 75.04%-1.40 -4.0 7
2005-01-03 St. Johnstone W 4-052.2 1552 1618 35.00% 22.28% 42.72%-0.19 +33.6 29
2005-01-03 @ Ross County L 0-452.2 1618 1552 42.72% 22.28% 35.00%+0.19 -33.7 34
2005-01-15 Clyde L 0-152.4 1510 1589 33.27% 22.23% 44.50%-0.24 -7.7 27
2005-01-15 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-052.4 1589 1510 44.50% 22.23% 33.27%+0.24 +7.7 41
2005-01-15 Falkirk L 0-350.3 1585 1678 31.34% 22.14% 46.52%-0.31 -20.1 34
2005-01-15 @ St. Johnstone W 3-050.3 1678 1585 46.52% 22.14% 31.34%+0.31 +20.1 55
2005-01-15 Queen of the South W 3-155.0 1489 1547 36.01% 22.30% 41.69%-0.16 +15.1 25
2005-01-15 @ Partick Thistle L 1-355.0 1547 1489 41.69% 22.30% 36.01%+0.16 -15.1 29
2005-01-15 Ross County W 2-161.6 1557 1586 40.21% 22.32% 37.47%-0.03 +8.0 34
2005-01-15 @ Airdrie United L 1-261.6 1586 1557 37.47% 22.32% 40.21%+0.03 -8.0 29
2005-01-15 St. Mirren W 2-050.5 1363 1578 18.55% 20.54% 60.91%-0.82 +24.1 10
2005-01-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-250.5 1578 1363 60.91% 20.54% 18.55%+0.82 -24.2 32
2005-01-22 Airdrie United W 1-053.6 1554 1565 42.67% 22.28% 35.05%+0.04 +8.1 35
2005-01-22 @ St. Mirren L 0-153.6 1565 1554 35.05% 22.28% 42.67%-0.04 -8.0 34
2005-01-22 Partick Thistle D 1-168.0 1564 1504 52.19% 21.74% 26.07%+0.35 -1.3 35
2005-01-22 @ St. Johnstone D 1-168.0 1504 1564 26.07% 21.74% 52.19%-0.35 +1.2 26
2005-01-22 Queen of the South L 0-143.3 1387 1532 25.27% 21.65% 53.08%-0.53 -6.1 10
2005-01-22 @ Raith Rovers W 1-043.3 1532 1387 53.08% 21.65% 25.27%+0.53 +6.1 32
2005-01-22 Ross County L 0-151.9 1503 1578 33.68% 22.24% 44.08%-0.23 -7.8 27
2005-01-22 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-051.9 1578 1503 44.08% 22.24% 33.68%+0.23 +7.8 32
2005-01-29 Falkirk L 0-155.4 1586 1698 29.00% 22.00% 49.00%-0.39 -6.9 32
2005-01-29 @ Ross County W 1-055.4 1698 1586 49.00% 22.00% 29.00%+0.39 +6.9 58
2005-01-29 Raith Rovers W 4-139.7 1505 1381 59.43% 20.80% 19.77%+0.62 +11.4 29
2005-01-29 @ Partick Thistle L 1-439.7 1381 1505 19.77% 20.80% 59.43%-0.62 -11.3 10
2005-01-29 St. Mirren D 0-063.2 1538 1562 40.93% 22.31% 36.76%-0.01 -0.2 33
2005-01-29 @ Queen of the South D 0-063.2 1562 1538 36.76% 22.31% 40.93%+0.01 +0.2 36
2005-02-12 Airdrie United D 1-168.0 1516 1557 38.48% 22.32% 39.20%-0.08 +0.0 30
2005-02-12 @ Partick Thistle D 1-168.0 1557 1516 39.20% 22.32% 38.48%+0.08 -0.0 35
2005-02-12 Clyde D 3-374.0 1370 1597 17.59% 20.30% 62.11%-0.87 +1.4 11
2005-02-12 @ Raith Rovers D 3-374.0 1597 1370 62.11% 20.30% 17.59%+0.87 -1.4 42
2005-02-12 Hamilton Academical D 1-172.7 1705 1495 67.67% 18.96% 13.37%+0.98 -2.8 59
2005-02-12 @ Falkirk D 1-172.7 1495 1705 13.37% 18.96% 67.67%-0.98 +2.8 28
2005-02-12 Queen of the South D 0-063.4 1563 1538 47.67% 22.08% 30.25%+0.20 -0.9 36
2005-02-12 @ St. Johnstone D 0-063.4 1538 1563 30.25% 22.08% 47.67%-0.20 +0.9 34
2005-02-19 Falkirk D 1-172.8 1539 1702 23.31% 21.40% 55.29%-0.60 +1.6 35
2005-02-19 @ Queen of the South D 1-172.8 1702 1539 55.29% 21.40% 23.31%+0.60 -1.6 60
2005-02-19 Partick Thistle W 1-050.2 1498 1516 41.63% 22.30% 36.07%+0.01 +8.2 31
2005-02-19 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-150.2 1516 1498 36.07% 22.30% 41.63%-0.01 -8.2 30
2005-02-19 Raith Rovers W 2-146.4 1557 1371 65.54% 19.53% 14.94%+0.88 +3.5 38
2005-02-19 @ Airdrie United L 1-246.4 1371 1557 14.94% 19.53% 65.54%-0.88 -3.5 11
2005-02-19 Ross County W 1-054.0 1595 1579 46.45% 22.14% 31.40%+0.16 +7.4 45
2005-02-19 @ Clyde L 0-154.0 1579 1595 31.40% 22.14% 46.45%-0.16 -7.4 32
2005-02-19 St. Johnstone D 1-169.7 1562 1562 44.22% 22.24% 33.54%+0.09 -0.5 37
2005-02-19 @ St. Mirren D 1-169.7 1562 1562 33.54% 22.24% 44.22%-0.09 +0.5 37
2005-03-01 St. Mirren L 0-157.2 1572 1562 45.62% 22.18% 32.19%+0.13 -9.9 32
2005-03-01 @ Ross County W 1-057.2 1562 1572 32.19% 22.18% 45.62%-0.13 +9.9 40
2005-03-02 Clyde L 0-154.4 1540 1603 35.49% 22.29% 42.22%-0.17 -8.1 35
2005-03-02 @ Queen of the South W 1-054.4 1603 1540 42.22% 22.29% 35.49%+0.17 +8.1 48
2005-03-05 Airdrie United D 0-063.0 1532 1561 40.26% 22.32% 37.42%-0.03 -0.1 36
2005-03-05 @ Queen of the South D 0-063.0 1561 1532 37.42% 22.32% 40.26%+0.03 +0.1 39
2005-03-05 Clyde D 0-065.6 1572 1611 38.73% 22.32% 38.94%-0.08 +0.0 41
2005-03-05 @ St. Mirren D 0-065.6 1611 1572 38.94% 22.32% 38.73%+0.08 -0.0 49
2005-03-05 Hamilton Academical L 0-252.9 1563 1506 51.73% 21.78% 26.48%+0.33 -20.8 37
2005-03-05 @ St. Johnstone W 2-052.9 1506 1563 26.48% 21.78% 51.73%-0.33 +20.8 34
2005-03-05 Partick Thistle W 2-155.4 1701 1508 66.13% 19.38% 14.50%+0.91 +3.4 63
2005-03-05 @ Falkirk L 1-255.4 1508 1701 14.50% 19.38% 66.13%-0.91 -3.4 30
2005-03-05 Raith Rovers W 2-035.8 1562 1367 66.26% 19.34% 14.40%+0.92 +6.8 35
2005-03-05 @ Ross County L 0-235.8 1367 1562 14.40% 19.34% 66.26%-0.92 -6.8 11
2005-03-08 Hamilton Academical W 1-050.7 1561 1527 48.84% 22.01% 29.15%+0.24 +6.9 42
2005-03-08 @ Airdrie United L 0-150.7 1527 1561 29.15% 22.01% 48.84%-0.24 -6.9 34
2005-03-08 St. Mirren D 0-065.7 1611 1572 49.47% 21.96% 28.57%+0.26 -1.1 50
2005-03-08 @ Clyde D 0-065.7 1572 1611 28.57% 21.96% 49.47%-0.26 +1.1 42
2005-03-12 Falkirk D 2-279.3 1568 1704 26.20% 21.75% 52.05%-0.49 +0.9 43
2005-03-12 @ Airdrie United D 2-279.3 1704 1568 52.05% 21.75% 26.20%+0.49 -0.9 64
2005-03-12 Queen of the South L 0-159.8 1610 1532 54.20% 21.53% 24.27%+0.42 -11.5 50
2005-03-12 @ Clyde W 1-059.8 1532 1610 24.27% 21.53% 54.20%-0.42 +11.5 39
2005-03-12 Ross County D 0-062.3 1505 1569 35.26% 22.29% 42.46%-0.18 +0.4 31
2005-03-12 @ Partick Thistle D 0-062.3 1569 1505 42.46% 22.29% 35.26%+0.18 -0.4 36
2005-03-12 St. Johnstone L 1-248.0 1361 1542 21.56% 21.13% 57.31%-0.68 -5.0 11
2005-03-12 @ Raith Rovers W 2-148.0 1542 1361 57.31% 21.13% 21.56%+0.68 +5.0 40
2005-03-12 St. Mirren D 0-063.0 1520 1573 36.77% 22.31% 40.92%-0.13 +0.2 35
2005-03-12 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-063.0 1573 1520 40.92% 22.31% 36.77%+0.13 -0.2 43
2005-03-15 Clyde D 0-068.1 1703 1598 57.40% 21.12% 21.48%+0.54 -2.0 65
2005-03-15 @ Falkirk D 0-068.1 1598 1703 21.48% 21.12% 57.40%-0.54 +2.0 51
2005-03-19 Clyde L 2-461.9 1569 1600 39.86% 22.32% 37.82%-0.04 -13.0 43
2005-03-19 @ Airdrie United W 4-261.9 1600 1569 37.82% 22.32% 39.86%+0.04 +13.0 54
2005-03-19 Falkirk D 3-378.2 1356 1701 10.22% 17.45% 72.33%-1.38 +2.0 12
2005-03-19 @ Raith Rovers D 3-378.2 1701 1356 72.33% 17.45% 10.22%+1.38 -2.0 66
2005-03-19 Queen of the South D 1-167.6 1520 1544 40.93% 22.31% 36.76%-0.01 -0.2 36
2005-03-19 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-167.6 1544 1520 36.76% 22.31% 40.93%+0.01 +0.2 40
2005-03-19 Ross County L 0-251.4 1547 1568 41.29% 22.31% 36.40%+0.00 -17.3 40
2005-03-19 @ St. Johnstone W 2-051.4 1568 1547 36.40% 22.31% 41.29%+0.00 +17.3 39
2005-03-19 St. Mirren D 0-062.5 1505 1572 34.78% 22.27% 42.95%-0.20 +0.4 32
2005-03-19 @ Partick Thistle D 0-062.5 1572 1505 42.95% 22.27% 34.78%+0.20 -0.4 44
2005-03-22 St. Johnstone D 1-170.5 1613 1530 54.89% 21.45% 23.66%+0.44 -1.5 55
2005-03-22 @ Clyde D 1-170.5 1530 1613 23.66% 21.45% 54.89%-0.44 +1.5 41
2005-04-02 Airdrie United W 3-154.8 1585 1556 48.24% 22.05% 29.71%+0.22 +11.5 42
2005-04-02 @ Ross County L 1-354.8 1556 1585 29.71% 22.05% 48.24%-0.22 -11.5 43
2005-04-02 Hamilton Academical L 1-362.2 1612 1520 55.88% 21.33% 22.79%+0.48 -19.3 55
2005-04-02 @ Clyde W 3-162.2 1520 1612 22.79% 21.33% 55.88%-0.48 +19.3 39
2005-04-02 Partick Thistle W 3-151.5 1544 1505 49.37% 21.97% 28.66%+0.25 +11.2 43
2005-04-02 @ Queen of the South L 1-351.5 1505 1544 28.66% 21.97% 49.37%-0.25 -11.1 32
2005-04-02 Raith Rovers W 3-033.8 1572 1358 68.01% 18.86% 13.13%+1.00 +9.0 47
2005-04-02 @ St. Mirren L 0-333.8 1358 1572 13.13% 18.86% 68.01%-1.00 -9.0 12
2005-04-02 St. Johnstone W 3-044.6 1699 1531 63.86% 19.93% 16.21%+0.81 +11.1 69
2005-04-02 @ Falkirk L 0-344.6 1531 1699 16.21% 19.93% 63.86%-0.81 -11.2 41
2005-04-09 Airdrie United D 1-168.3 1539 1544 43.53% 22.26% 34.21%+0.07 -0.4 40
2005-04-09 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-168.3 1544 1539 34.21% 22.26% 43.53%-0.07 +0.4 44
2005-04-09 Clyde D 0-063.7 1520 1592 34.15% 22.26% 43.60%-0.22 +0.5 42
2005-04-09 @ St. Johnstone D 0-063.7 1592 1520 43.60% 22.26% 34.15%+0.22 -0.5 56
2005-04-09 Partick Thistle W 2-155.9 1349 1494 25.18% 21.64% 53.18%-0.53 +10.7 15
2005-04-09 @ Raith Rovers L 1-255.9 1494 1349 53.18% 21.64% 25.18%+0.53 -10.7 32
2005-04-09 Queen of the South W 3-047.1 1581 1555 47.77% 22.07% 30.16%+0.20 +19.5 50
2005-04-09 @ St. Mirren L 0-347.1 1555 1581 30.16% 22.07% 47.77%-0.20 -19.5 43
2005-04-09 Ross County W 1-052.9 1711 1597 58.31% 20.98% 20.71%+0.57 +5.1 72
2005-04-09 @ Falkirk L 0-152.9 1597 1711 20.71% 20.98% 58.31%-0.57 -5.1 42
2005-04-16 Falkirk L 0-155.2 1592 1716 27.62% 21.89% 50.49%-0.44 -6.6 56
2005-04-16 @ Clyde W 1-055.2 1716 1592 50.49% 21.89% 27.62%+0.44 +6.6 75
2005-04-16 Hamilton Academical W 2-157.9 1592 1539 51.25% 21.82% 26.93%+0.32 +6.1 45
2005-04-16 @ Ross County L 1-257.9 1539 1592 26.93% 21.82% 51.25%-0.32 -6.1 40
2005-04-16 Raith Rovers D 1-162.3 1535 1359 64.62% 19.75% 15.63%+0.84 -2.5 44
2005-04-16 @ Queen of the South D 1-162.3 1359 1535 15.63% 19.75% 64.62%-0.84 +2.5 16
2005-04-16 St. Johnstone L 0-445.7 1484 1521 39.05% 22.32% 38.63%-0.07 -31.3 32
2005-04-16 @ Partick Thistle W 4-045.7 1521 1484 38.63% 22.32% 39.05%+0.07 +31.3 45
2005-04-16 St. Mirren L 0-250.9 1545 1601 36.36% 22.31% 41.33%-0.15 -15.6 44
2005-04-16 @ Airdrie United W 2-050.9 1601 1545 41.33% 22.31% 36.36%+0.15 +15.6 53
2005-04-23 Airdrie United L 1-262.5 1552 1529 47.34% 22.10% 30.56%+0.19 -9.7 45
2005-04-23 @ St. Johnstone W 2-162.5 1529 1552 30.56% 22.10% 47.34%-0.19 +9.7 47
2005-04-23 Clyde W 1-055.6 1452 1585 26.62% 21.79% 51.59%-0.47 +11.0 35
2005-04-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-155.6 1585 1452 51.59% 21.79% 26.62%+0.47 -11.0 56
2005-04-23 Hamilton Academical L 0-237.7 1362 1532 22.58% 21.30% 56.12%-0.64 -10.5 16
2005-04-23 @ Raith Rovers W 2-037.7 1532 1362 56.12% 21.30% 22.58%+0.64 +10.5 43
2005-04-23 Queen of the South D 1-170.0 1598 1533 52.69% 21.69% 25.62%+0.37 -1.3 46
2005-04-23 @ Ross County D 1-170.0 1533 1598 25.62% 21.69% 52.69%-0.37 +1.3 45
2005-04-23 St. Mirren L 1-270.8 1722 1616 57.49% 21.11% 21.40%+0.54 -11.5 75
2005-04-23 @ Falkirk W 2-170.8 1616 1722 21.40% 21.11% 57.49%-0.54 +11.5 56
2005-04-30 Falkirk W 1-062.7 1543 1711 22.87% 21.34% 55.79%-0.62 +11.8 46
2005-04-30 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-162.7 1711 1543 55.79% 21.34% 22.87%+0.62 -11.8 75
2005-04-30 Partick Thistle L 0-154.9 1539 1463 53.96% 21.56% 24.48%+0.41 -11.5 47
2005-04-30 @ Airdrie United W 1-054.9 1463 1539 24.48% 21.56% 53.96%-0.41 +11.5 38
2005-04-30 Raith Rovers W 1-038.9 1574 1351 68.71% 18.65% 12.64%+1.04 +3.2 59
2005-04-30 @ Clyde L 0-138.9 1351 1574 12.64% 18.65% 68.71%-1.04 -3.2 16
2005-04-30 Ross County W 1-054.5 1628 1597 48.42% 22.03% 29.55%+0.22 +7.0 59
2005-04-30 @ St. Mirren L 0-154.5 1597 1628 29.55% 22.03% 48.42%-0.22 -7.0 46
2005-04-30 St. Johnstone W 2-048.1 1534 1542 43.15% 22.27% 34.58%+0.06 +15.0 48
2005-04-30 @ Queen of the South L 0-248.1 1542 1534 34.58% 22.27% 43.15%-0.06 -15.0 45
2005-05-07 Airdrie United L 0-140.7 1348 1527 21.77% 21.17% 57.07%-0.67 -5.4 16
2005-05-07 @ Raith Rovers W 1-040.7 1527 1348 57.07% 21.17% 21.77%+0.67 +5.4 50
2005-05-07 Clyde D 1-170.9 1590 1577 45.94% 22.17% 31.89%+0.14 -0.6 47
2005-05-07 @ Ross County D 1-170.9 1577 1590 31.89% 22.17% 45.94%-0.14 +0.6 60
2005-05-07 Hamilton Academical D 1-166.4 1475 1555 33.10% 22.22% 44.68%-0.25 +0.5 39
2005-05-07 @ Partick Thistle D 1-166.4 1555 1475 44.68% 22.22% 33.10%+0.25 -0.5 47
2005-05-07 Queen of the South L 1-270.7 1699 1549 62.07% 20.31% 17.62%+0.73 -12.3 75
2005-05-07 @ Falkirk W 2-170.7 1549 1699 17.62% 20.31% 62.07%-0.73 +12.3 51
2005-05-07 St. Mirren D 0-065.2 1527 1635 29.61% 22.04% 48.35%-0.37 +1.0 46
2005-05-07 @ St. Johnstone D 0-065.2 1635 1527 48.35% 22.04% 29.61%+0.37 -1.0 60

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-05-07 17.62% Queen of the South 1549 2 @ Falkirk 1699 1
2 2005-01-15 18.55% @ Raith Rovers 1363 2 St. Mirren 1578 0
3 2004-12-29 18.88% @ Partick Thistle 1475 2 Falkirk 1686 1
4 2005-04-23 21.40% St. Mirren 1616 2 @ Falkirk 1722 1
5 2004-09-11 21.63% Airdrie United 1506 2 @ Clyde 1609 1
6 2004-08-21 21.79% Falkirk 1490 3 @ Queen of the South 1592 1
7 2004-09-11 22.03% St. Johnstone 1501 1 @ Ross County 1601 0
8 2005-04-02 22.79% Hamilton Academical 1520 3 @ Clyde 1612 1
9 2005-04-30 22.87% @ Hamilton Academical 1543 1 Falkirk 1711 0
10 2004-10-16 23.55% St. Johnstone 1509 1 @ Queen of the South 1593 0
11 2004-12-26 23.82% Hamilton Academical 1510 1 @ St. Mirren 1591 0
12 2005-03-12 24.27% Queen of the South 1532 1 @ Clyde 1610 0
13 2005-04-30 24.48% Partick Thistle 1463 1 @ Airdrie United 1539 0
14 2005-04-09 25.18% @ Raith Rovers 1349 2 Partick Thistle 1494 1
15 2004-11-13 25.65% @ Airdrie United 1489 3 Clyde 1631 1
16 2005-01-01 26.42% Hamilton Academical 1500 2 @ Queen of the South 1558 1
17 2005-03-05 26.48% Hamilton Academical 1506 2 @ St. Johnstone 1563 0
18 2005-04-23 26.62% @ Partick Thistle 1452 1 Clyde 1585 0
19 2004-11-20 26.84% Airdrie United 1507 2 @ Ross County 1561 1
20 2004-09-04 28.46% Falkirk 1549 4 @ Partick Thistle 1589 1
21 2004-10-30 29.54% @ Raith Rovers 1412 1 St. Johnstone 1520 0
22 2004-08-28 30.09% Partick Thistle 1579 1 @ Ross County 1605 0
23 2005-04-23 30.56% Airdrie United 1529 2 @ St. Johnstone 1552 1
24 2004-11-27 31.17% @ St. Johnstone 1522 3 Clyde 1617 0
25 2004-10-02 31.48% Falkirk 1588 1 @ Ross County 1604 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-08-28 38.96 @ Falkirk 5 1510 38.18% Airdrie United 0 1553 39.50% 22.32%
2 2005-01-03 33.65 @ Ross County 4 1552 35.00% St. Johnstone 0 1618 42.72% 22.28%
3 2004-10-30 32.90 @ Partick Thistle 4 1537 36.16% Ross County 0 1594 41.54% 22.30%
4 2004-12-04 32.04 St. Johnstone 4 1550 37.51% @ Partick Thistle 0 1521 40.17% 22.32%
5 2005-04-16 31.33 St. Johnstone 4 1521 38.63% @ Partick Thistle 0 1484 39.05% 22.32%
6 2004-11-27 27.72 @ St. Johnstone 3 1522 31.17% Clyde 0 1617 46.69% 22.13%
7 2004-11-13 25.22 St. Mirren 3 1589 36.08% @ Partick Thistle 0 1570 41.62% 22.30%
8 2004-09-04 24.61 Falkirk 4 1549 28.46% @ Partick Thistle 1 1589 49.58% 21.96%
9 2005-01-15 24.15 @ Raith Rovers 2 1363 18.55% St. Mirren 0 1578 60.91% 20.54%
10 2004-11-06 22.47 @ St. Johnstone 3 1509 41.78% Hamilton Academical 0 1527 35.92% 22.30%
11 2004-12-29 21.32 St. Johnstone 3 1597 44.11% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1521 33.65% 22.24%
12 2005-03-05 20.85 Hamilton Academical 2 1506 26.48% @ St. Johnstone 0 1563 51.73% 21.78%
13 2005-01-15 20.13 Falkirk 3 1678 46.52% @ St. Johnstone 0 1585 31.34% 22.14%
14 2004-08-21 19.71 Falkirk 3 1490 21.79% @ Queen of the South 1 1592 57.04% 21.17%
15 2005-04-09 19.50 @ St. Mirren 3 1581 47.77% Queen of the South 0 1555 30.16% 22.07%
16 2005-04-02 19.34 Hamilton Academical 3 1520 22.79% @ Clyde 1 1612 55.88% 21.33%
17 2004-09-18 18.41 St. Mirren 3 1571 49.92% @ Raith Rovers 0 1452 28.15% 21.93%
18 2004-11-13 18.34 @ Airdrie United 3 1489 25.65% Clyde 1 1631 52.65% 21.69%
19 2004-10-02 17.95 Hamilton Academical 2 1518 34.40% @ Airdrie United 0 1511 43.34% 22.26%
20 2005-03-19 17.26 Ross County 2 1568 36.40% @ St. Johnstone 0 1547 41.29% 22.31%
21 2004-12-29 15.78 @ Airdrie United 2 1549 40.84% Queen of the South 0 1573 36.85% 22.31%
22 2005-04-16 15.62 St. Mirren 2 1601 41.33% @ Airdrie United 0 1545 36.36% 22.31%
23 2004-11-27 15.44 Airdrie United 3 1518 34.74% @ Hamilton Academical 1 1509 42.99% 22.27%
24 2004-12-04 15.43 Falkirk 2 1649 41.90% @ Clyde 0 1590 35.81% 22.30%
25 2005-01-15 15.06 @ Partick Thistle 3 1489 36.01% Queen of the South 1 1547 41.69% 22.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-03-12 79.3 @ Airdrie United 2 1568 26.20% Falkirk 2 1704 52.05% 21.75%
2 2005-03-19 78.2 @ Raith Rovers 3 1356 10.22% Falkirk 3 1701 72.33% 17.45%
3 2004-11-27 78.1 @ Falkirk 2 1651 57.02% Ross County 2 1549 21.80% 21.17%
4 2004-11-27 77.5 @ St. Mirren 2 1617 51.11% Queen of the South 2 1565 27.06% 21.84%
5 2004-10-30 75.5 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1527 35.51% St. Mirren 2 1589 42.20% 22.29%
6 2005-02-12 74.0 @ Raith Rovers 3 1370 17.59% Clyde 3 1597 62.11% 20.30%
7 2005-02-19 72.8 @ Queen of the South 1 1539 23.31% Falkirk 1 1702 55.29% 21.40%
8 2005-02-12 72.7 @ Falkirk 1 1705 67.67% Hamilton Academical 1 1495 13.37% 18.96%
9 2004-09-25 71.5 @ Falkirk 1 1588 41.83% Clyde 1 1606 35.87% 22.30%
10 2004-08-14 70.9 @ Ross County 1 1615 52.95% St. Mirren 1 1548 25.38% 21.66%
11 2005-05-07 70.9 @ Ross County 1 1590 45.94% Clyde 1 1577 31.89% 22.17%
12 2005-04-23 70.8 St. Mirren 2 1616 21.40% @ Falkirk 1 1722 57.49% 21.11%
13 2005-05-07 70.7 Queen of the South 2 1549 17.62% @ Falkirk 1 1699 62.07% 20.31%
14 2005-03-22 70.5 @ Clyde 1 1613 54.89% St. Johnstone 1 1530 23.66% 21.45%
15 2005-04-23 70.0 @ Ross County 1 1598 52.69% Queen of the South 1 1533 25.62% 21.69%
16 2005-02-19 69.7 @ St. Mirren 1 1562 44.22% St. Johnstone 1 1562 33.54% 22.24%
17 2004-10-23 69.3 @ Raith Rovers 2 1411 28.51% Hamilton Academical 2 1527 49.54% 21.96%
18 2004-09-11 69.1 @ Queen of the South 1 1572 49.56% Hamilton Academical 1 1532 28.48% 21.96%
19 2004-09-25 69.1 @ St. Mirren 1 1590 54.52% Airdrie United 1 1510 23.99% 21.49%
20 2004-12-04 68.8 @ Airdrie United 3 1533 32.67% St. Mirren 2 1616 45.13% 22.20%
21 2004-11-13 68.7 @ St. Johnstone 1 1532 40.10% Ross County 1 1561 37.58% 22.32%
22 2004-12-29 68.5 @ Partick Thistle 2 1475 18.88% Falkirk 1 1686 60.51% 20.61%
23 2005-04-09 68.3 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1539 43.53% Airdrie United 1 1544 34.21% 22.26%
24 2005-01-01 68.1 @ St. Mirren 1 1580 55.97% Partick Thistle 1 1487 22.71% 21.32%
25 2005-03-15 68.1 @ Falkirk 0 1703 57.40% Clyde 0 1598 21.48% 21.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-04-02 33.8 @ St. Mirren 3 1572 68.01% Raith Rovers 0 1358 13.13% 18.86%
2 2005-03-05 35.8 @ Ross County 2 1562 66.26% Raith Rovers 0 1367 14.40% 19.34%
3 2004-12-26 37.3 @ St. Johnstone 2 1590 67.07% Raith Rovers 0 1387 13.80% 19.12%
4 2005-01-01 37.3 @ Falkirk 2 1674 75.04% Raith Rovers 0 1367 8.56% 16.40%
5 2005-04-23 37.7 Hamilton Academical 2 1532 56.12% @ Raith Rovers 0 1362 22.58% 21.30%
6 2004-12-04 38.7 @ Queen of the South 2 1566 62.48% Raith Rovers 0 1412 17.29% 20.23%
7 2005-04-30 38.9 @ Clyde 1 1574 68.71% Raith Rovers 0 1351 12.64% 18.65%
8 2004-10-16 39.5 @ Clyde 2 1612 66.24% Raith Rovers 0 1418 14.42% 19.35%
9 2004-10-02 39.6 @ Partick Thistle 2 1540 58.17% Raith Rovers 0 1428 20.82% 21.00%
10 2005-01-29 39.7 @ Partick Thistle 4 1505 59.43% Raith Rovers 1 1381 19.77% 20.80%
11 2004-12-18 40.2 Airdrie United 2 1542 52.92% @ Raith Rovers 0 1399 25.42% 21.67%
12 2005-05-07 40.7 Airdrie United 1 1527 57.07% @ Raith Rovers 0 1348 21.77% 21.17%
13 2004-12-11 41.9 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1494 55.70% Raith Rovers 0 1404 22.95% 21.35%
14 2004-11-13 42.1 Falkirk 2 1617 58.83% @ Raith Rovers 0 1422 20.27% 20.90%
15 2004-12-29 42.2 Ross County 4 1539 54.72% @ Raith Rovers 1 1380 23.81% 21.47%
16 2004-09-18 42.6 St. Mirren 3 1571 49.92% @ Raith Rovers 0 1452 28.15% 21.93%
17 2004-11-20 43.1 @ St. Mirren 1 1614 66.87% Raith Rovers 0 1413 13.95% 19.18%
18 2005-01-22 43.3 Queen of the South 1 1532 53.08% @ Raith Rovers 0 1387 25.27% 21.65%
19 2004-08-07 44.1 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1537 50.57% Raith Rovers 0 1490 27.55% 21.88%
20 2005-04-02 44.6 @ Falkirk 3 1699 63.86% St. Johnstone 0 1531 16.21% 19.93%
21 2004-08-07 45.1 @ St. Mirren 2 1535 48.48% Falkirk 0 1503 29.49% 22.03%
22 2004-11-23 45.4 @ Falkirk 3 1636 56.68% Partick Thistle 0 1537 22.10% 21.22%
23 2004-11-06 45.5 @ St. Johnstone 3 1509 41.78% Hamilton Academical 0 1527 35.92% 22.30%
24 2005-04-16 45.7 St. Johnstone 4 1521 38.63% @ Partick Thistle 0 1484 39.05% 22.32%
25 2005-02-19 46.4 @ Airdrie United 2 1557 65.54% Raith Rovers 1 1371 14.94% 19.53%