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1893-94 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Celtic

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

8.09 points above expected

26 points · 17.91 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Renton

10.60 points below expected

4 points · 14.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 18 14 1 3 29 53 32 +21 21.4 +7.59
2 Heart of Midlothian 18 11 4 3 26 46 32 +14 17.9 +8.09
3 St. Bernards 18 11 1 6 23 53 39 +14 19.5 +3.50
4 Rangers 18 8 4 6 20 44 30 +14 19.2 +0.76
5 Dumbarton 18 7 5 6 19 32 35 -3 17.6 +1.45
6 St. Mirren 18 7 3 8 17 49 47 +2 17.3 -0.33
7 Third Lanark 18 7 3 8 17 38 44 -6 17.0 +0.04
8 Dundee 18 6 3 9 15 47 59 -12 18.5 -3.46
9 Leith Athletic 18 4 2 12 10 36 46 -10 17.1 -7.05
10 Renton 18 1 2 15 4 23 57 -34 14.6 -10.60

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celtic 1646 29 21.41 +7.59 99.2% 8 15 19 21 24 27 33
St. Bernards 1625 23 19.50 +3.50 85.8% 6 13 17 19 22 26 32
Rangers 1612 20 19.24 +0.76 62.6% 5 13 17 19 22 25 33
Heart of Midlothian 1602 26 17.91 +8.09 98.9% 5 12 15 18 20 24 31
Dumbarton 1575 19 17.55 +1.45 69.7% 4 11 15 18 20 24 32
Dundee 1569 15 18.46 -3.46 21.6% 4 12 16 18 21 25 32
Third Lanark 1565 17 16.96 +0.04 55.8% 2 11 14 17 20 23 31
St. Mirren 1560 17 17.33 -0.33 52.3% 6 11 15 17 20 24 31
Leith Athletic 1555 10 17.05 -7.05 3.8% 4 11 14 17 20 23 30
Renton 1471 4 14.60 -10.60 0.1% 3 9 12 15 17 21 29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL DUM DUN HOM LA RAN REN SB SM TL
Celtic —
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.06
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.38
Dumbarton
0-1-1
2.23
 —
0-1-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.72
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.88
Dundee
0-0-2
2.44
1-1-0
2.86
 —
0-0-2
2.81
2-0-0
2.99
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.56
0-0-2
3.07
0-1-1
2.97
Heart of Midlothian
1-0-1
2.30
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.78
 —
0-1-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.54
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.83
Leith Athletic
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
2.60
1-1-0
2.68
 —
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.89
0-0-2
2.82
Rangers
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.11
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
3.06
1-1-0
3.26
 —
2-0-0
3.30
0-1-1
2.76
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.38
Renton
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-2
2.12
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-2
2.30
 —
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
2.40
St. Bernards
0-0-2
2.54
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.48
 —
2-0-0
3.13
1-0-1
3.16
St. Mirren
0-0-2
2.22
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
2.54
0-1-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
3.16
0-0-2
2.47
 —
1-0-1
2.98
Third Lanark
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
2.72
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.77
2-0-0
2.77
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.61
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%1.11%1.67%2.78%1.67%2.22%11.67%
11.11%4.44%7.78%5.00%1.11%2.22%21.67%
21.67%7.78%5.56%4.44%4.44%2.78%26.67%
32.78%5.00%4.44%3.33%1.11%3.33%20.00%
41.67%1.11%4.44%1.11%—0.56%8.89%
5+2.22%2.22%2.78%3.33%0.56%—11.11%
Total11.67%21.67%26.67%20.00%8.89%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.34
Mean allowed2.34
StdDev scored1.70
StdDev allowed1.70
Mean total goals/game4.68
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.101
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%————11.11%16.67%
1———————
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.94
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.70
StdDev allowed1.56
Mean total goals/game4.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.339
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———11.11%—16.67%
1—11.11%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Dumbarton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.78
Mean allowed1.94
StdDev scored1.26
StdDev allowed1.63
Mean total goals/game3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.006
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%——11.11%
1—11.11%—11.11%5.56%—27.78%
2—————11.11%11.11%
3——5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
Total5.56%16.67%5.56%44.44%11.11%16.67%100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.61
Mean allowed3.28
StdDev scored2.06
StdDev allowed2.32
Mean total goals/game5.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.136
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—16.67%16.67%—11.11%—44.44%
35.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total5.56%33.33%50.00%—11.11%—100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.56
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed1.00
Mean total goals/game4.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.131
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1——11.11%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%44.44%
3————5.56%5.56%11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%27.78%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Leith Athletic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed2.56
StdDev scored1.19
StdDev allowed1.50
Mean total goals/game4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.099
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total27.78%11.11%33.33%22.22%5.56%—100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.44
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored2.01
StdDev allowed1.28
Mean total goals/game4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.122
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%——11.11%27.78%
2—5.56%—16.67%11.11%—33.33%
3———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—16.67%16.67%33.33%16.67%16.67%100%

Renton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed3.17
StdDev scored1.02
StdDev allowed1.72
Mean total goals/game4.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.173
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
2—11.11%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
3—11.11%5.56%——11.11%27.78%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%5.56%5.56%16.67%100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.94
Mean allowed2.17
StdDev scored1.95
StdDev allowed1.62
Mean total goals/game5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.189
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%33.33%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
45.56%—11.11%———16.67%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%27.78%—16.67%100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.72
Mean allowed2.61
StdDev scored2.30
StdDev allowed1.91
Mean total goals/game5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.133
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%11.11%16.67%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
311.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%33.33%5.56%11.11%100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.11
Mean allowed2.44
StdDev scored1.28
StdDev allowed1.58
Mean total goals/game4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.230
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 26 17.9 +8.09
2 Celtic 29 21.4 +7.59
3 St. Bernards 23 19.5 +3.50
4 Dumbarton 19 17.6 +1.45
5 Rangers 20 19.2 +0.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Renton 4 14.6 -10.60
2 Leith Athletic 10 17.1 -7.05
3 Dundee 15 18.5 -3.46
4 St. Mirren 17 17.3 -0.33
5 Third Lanark 17 17.0 +0.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 11 Sep 9 – Feb 24 1 in 2,285
2 Heart of Midlothian 4 Oct 7 – Nov 4 1 in 61
3 St. Bernards 4 Mar 10 – May 2 1 in 29
4 Dumbarton 3 Jan 20 – Mar 17 1 in 12
5 Rangers 3 Sep 2 – Sep 23 1 in 12

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Renton 9 Oct 21 – Feb 10 1 in 487
2 Dundee 5 Sep 23 – Nov 4 1 in 120
3 Leith Athletic 4 Aug 23 – Sep 9 1 in 35
4 Celtic 2 Mar 10 – Mar 17 1 in 13
5 Rangers 2 Dec 23 – Jan 20 1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 11 Sep 23 – Mar 10 1 in 300
2 Celtic 11 Sep 9 – Feb 24 1 in 57
3 Rangers 7 Aug 12 – Sep 30 1 in 29
4 Dumbarton 4 Sep 30 – Oct 28 1 in 7
5 St. Bernards 4 Mar 10 – May 2 1 in 6

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Renton 16 Aug 23 – Feb 10 1 in 400
2 Dundee 6 Sep 16 – Nov 4 1 in 23
3 Leith Athletic 7 Oct 28 – Mar 10 1 in 23
4 Dumbarton 5 Sep 16 – Oct 21 1 in 14
5 Third Lanark 4 Sep 2 – Sep 30 1 in 10

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Celtic33.74%19.43%13.20%9.88%7.65%5.85%4.60%2.83%1.94%0.88%
Heart of Midlothian8.11%10.07%11.03%11.90%11.06%10.99%10.87%9.41%9.29%7.27%
St. Bernards15.33%14.67%14.32%12.27%11.32%9.35%7.98%6.44%5.16%3.16%
Rangers14.29%14.38%13.88%11.69%10.99%9.84%8.83%6.75%5.65%3.70%
Dumbarton5.81%8.04%8.85%10.26%11.15%11.65%11.82%11.82%11.04%9.56%
St. Mirren5.09%7.73%9.06%10.41%10.86%11.16%12.20%12.63%11.12%9.74%
Third Lanark4.41%6.55%7.67%8.92%9.95%11.27%12.36%12.96%13.64%12.27%
Dundee8.01%10.80%10.75%11.47%11.25%11.17%10.35%10.25%9.30%6.65%
Leith Athletic4.13%6.31%7.89%8.78%10.62%11.64%11.27%13.64%13.44%12.28%
Renton1.08%2.02%3.35%4.42%5.15%7.08%9.72%13.27%19.42%34.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 99.1% 0.9%
St. Bernards 96.8% 3.2%
Rangers 96.3% 3.7%
Dundee 93.3% 6.7%
Heart of Midlothian 92.7% 7.3%
Dumbarton 90.4% 9.6%
St. Mirren 90.3% 9.7%
Third Lanark 87.7% 12.3%
Leith Athletic 87.7% 12.3%
Renton 65.5% 34.5%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1893-08-12 Third Lanark W 5-0 1615 1570 50.9% 19.8% 29.3% +11.2 3
1893-08-12 @ Celtic L 0-5 1570 1615 29.3% 19.8% 50.9% -11.2 0
1893-08-12 Rangers D 3-3 1599 1588 46.4% 20.1% 33.5% -0.1 1
1893-08-12 @ Dundee D 3-3 1588 1599 33.5% 20.1% 46.4% +0.1 1
1893-08-19 Celtic L 1-4 1599 1626 41.0% 20.2% 38.9% -7.7 1
1893-08-19 @ Dundee W 4-1 1626 1599 38.9% 20.2% 41.0% +7.7 6
1893-08-19 Leith Athletic L 0-2 1567 1572 44.2% 20.1% 35.7% -6.7 0
1893-08-19 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1572 1567 35.7% 20.1% 44.2% +6.7 3
1893-08-23 Leith Athletic W 4-1 1634 1578 52.3% 19.6% 28.1% +5.6 9
1893-08-23 @ Celtic L 1-4 1578 1634 28.1% 19.6% 52.3% -5.6 3
1893-08-23 Renton W 5-3 1588 1539 51.4% 19.7% 28.9% +3.5 4
1893-08-23 @ Rangers L 3-5 1539 1588 28.9% 19.7% 51.4% -3.4 0
1893-08-23 St. Bernards W 5-3 1558 1599 39.1% 20.1% 40.8% +4.6 3
1893-08-23 @ Third Lanark L 3-5 1599 1558 40.8% 20.1% 39.1% -4.6 0
1893-08-26 Dumbarton D 0-0 1640 1580 52.7% 19.6% 27.7% -0.5 10
1893-08-26 @ Celtic D 0-0 1580 1640 27.7% 19.6% 52.7% +0.5 1
1893-08-26 Dundee L 2-3 1535 1591 37.0% 20.1% 42.9% -2.8 0
1893-08-26 @ Renton W 3-2 1591 1535 42.9% 20.1% 37.0% +2.8 4
1893-08-26 Rangers D 0-0 1594 1591 45.3% 20.1% 34.6% -0.2 1
1893-08-26 @ St. Bernards D 0-0 1591 1594 34.6% 20.1% 45.3% +0.2 5
1893-08-26 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1551 1560 43.6% 20.2% 36.3% -3.2 0
1893-08-26 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1560 1551 36.3% 20.2% 43.6% +3.1 3
1893-08-26 Leith Athletic W 2-1 1563 1573 43.5% 20.2% 36.4% +2.9 6
1893-08-26 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1573 1563 36.4% 20.2% 43.5% -2.9 3
1893-09-02 St. Bernards L 1-5 1581 1594 43.0% 20.2% 36.9% -10.4 1
1893-09-02 @ Dumbarton W 5-1 1594 1581 36.9% 20.2% 43.0% +10.4 4
1893-09-02 St. Mirren L 2-5 1570 1548 47.8% 20.0% 32.2% -7.6 3
1893-09-02 @ Leith Athletic W 5-2 1548 1570 32.2% 20.0% 47.8% +7.6 3
1893-09-02 Celtic W 5-0 1591 1639 38.1% 20.1% 41.8% +15.0 8
1893-09-02 @ Rangers L 0-5 1639 1591 41.8% 20.1% 38.1% -15.0 10
1893-09-02 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1566 1563 45.2% 20.1% 34.7% -5.9 6
1893-09-02 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1563 1566 34.7% 20.1% 45.2% +5.9 6
1893-09-09 Celtic L 2-4 1569 1624 37.1% 20.1% 42.8% -4.5 6
1893-09-09 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-2 1624 1569 42.8% 20.1% 37.1% +4.5 13
1893-09-09 Dundee L 3-5 1562 1594 40.4% 20.2% 39.5% -4.6 3
1893-09-09 @ Leith Athletic W 5-3 1594 1562 39.5% 20.2% 40.4% +4.6 7
1893-09-09 Rangers L 1-2 1533 1606 34.6% 20.0% 45.5% -2.8 0
1893-09-09 @ Renton W 2-1 1606 1533 45.5% 20.0% 34.6% +2.7 11
1893-09-09 St. Bernards L 1-3 1555 1605 37.9% 20.1% 42.0% -5.1 3
1893-09-09 @ St. Mirren W 3-1 1605 1555 42.0% 20.1% 37.9% +5.1 7
1893-09-09 Dumbarton L 1-3 1560 1570 43.4% 20.2% 36.5% -5.7 6
1893-09-09 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1570 1560 36.5% 20.2% 43.4% +5.7 4
1893-09-16 Dundee D 1-1 1576 1598 41.7% 20.2% 38.1% -0.1 5
1893-09-16 @ Dumbarton D 1-1 1598 1576 38.1% 20.2% 41.7% +0.1 8
1893-09-16 Renton W 4-2 1550 1530 47.6% 20.0% 32.4% +4.0 6
1893-09-16 @ St. Mirren L 2-4 1530 1550 32.4% 20.0% 47.6% -4.0 0
1893-09-18 St. Bernards W 4-2 1558 1610 37.5% 20.1% 42.4% +5.0 6
1893-09-18 @ Leith Athletic L 2-4 1610 1558 42.4% 20.1% 37.5% -5.0 7
1893-09-23 St. Mirren L 0-3 1598 1554 50.8% 19.8% 29.4% -11.0 8
1893-09-23 @ Dundee W 3-0 1554 1598 29.4% 19.8% 50.8% +11.0 9
1893-09-23 Third Lanark D 2-2 1565 1554 46.3% 20.1% 33.7% -0.2 7
1893-09-23 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1554 1565 33.7% 20.1% 46.3% +0.2 7
1893-09-23 Dumbarton W 4-0 1609 1576 49.3% 19.9% 30.8% +9.5 14
1893-09-23 @ Rangers L 0-4 1576 1609 30.8% 19.9% 49.3% -9.5 5
1893-09-23 Renton W 4-2 1605 1526 55.2% 19.3% 25.5% +3.3 10
1893-09-23 @ St. Bernards L 2-4 1526 1605 25.5% 19.3% 55.2% -3.3 0
1893-09-30 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1567 1565 45.1% 20.1% 34.8% -0.1 6
1893-09-30 @ Dumbarton D 2-2 1565 1567 34.8% 20.1% 45.1% +0.1 8
1893-09-30 St. Bernards L 1-3 1588 1608 42.0% 20.2% 37.9% -5.6 8
1893-09-30 @ Dundee W 3-1 1608 1588 37.9% 20.2% 42.0% +5.6 13
1893-09-30 Rangers D 2-2 1563 1619 37.0% 20.1% 43.0% +0.1 7
1893-09-30 @ Leith Athletic D 2-2 1619 1563 43.0% 20.1% 37.0% -0.1 15
1893-09-30 Celtic L 1-2 1565 1629 36.0% 20.0% 44.0% -2.8 9
1893-09-30 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1629 1565 44.0% 20.0% 36.0% +2.8 16
1893-09-30 Renton D 3-3 1554 1523 49.2% 19.9% 30.9% -0.2 8
1893-09-30 @ Third Lanark D 3-3 1523 1554 30.9% 19.9% 49.2% +0.2 1
1893-10-07 Dumbarton D 1-1 1523 1567 38.7% 20.1% 41.2% +0.0 2
1893-10-07 @ Renton D 1-1 1567 1523 41.2% 20.1% 38.7% -0.0 7
1893-10-07 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1614 1565 51.4% 19.7% 28.9% -3.8 13
1893-10-07 @ St. Bernards W 2-1 1565 1614 28.9% 19.7% 51.4% +3.8 11
1893-10-14 St. Bernards W 5-2 1631 1610 47.8% 20.0% 32.2% +5.5 19
1893-10-14 @ Celtic L 2-5 1610 1631 32.2% 20.0% 47.8% -5.5 13
1893-10-14 Rangers W 4-2 1568 1618 37.8% 20.1% 42.1% +5.0 14
1893-10-14 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-4 1618 1568 42.1% 20.1% 37.8% -5.0 15
1893-10-14 Leith Athletic W 3-1 1563 1563 44.8% 20.1% 35.1% +4.8 12
1893-10-14 @ St. Mirren L 1-3 1563 1563 35.1% 20.1% 44.8% -4.8 7
1893-10-14 Dundee W 4-3 1554 1582 40.9% 20.2% 38.9% +2.8 11
1893-10-14 @ Third Lanark L 3-4 1582 1554 38.9% 20.2% 40.9% -2.8 8
1893-10-21 St. Mirren D 3-3 1566 1567 44.7% 20.1% 35.2% -0.1 8
1893-10-21 @ Dumbarton D 3-3 1567 1566 35.2% 20.1% 44.7% +0.1 13
1893-10-21 Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1579 1573 45.6% 20.1% 34.3% -7.3 8
1893-10-21 @ Dundee W 5-2 1573 1579 34.3% 20.1% 45.6% +7.3 17
1893-10-21 Renton W 2-1 1558 1523 49.6% 19.9% 30.5% +2.5 10
1893-10-21 @ Leith Athletic L 1-2 1523 1558 30.5% 19.9% 49.6% -2.5 2
1893-10-21 Third Lanark W 6-2 1604 1557 51.2% 19.8% 29.1% +6.4 16
1893-10-21 @ St. Bernards L 2-6 1557 1604 29.1% 19.8% 51.2% -6.4 11
1893-10-28 Dumbarton L 2-4 1560 1566 44.0% 20.1% 35.9% -5.2 10
1893-10-28 @ Leith Athletic W 4-2 1566 1560 35.9% 20.1% 44.0% +5.2 11
1893-10-28 St. Bernards L 0-1 1520 1611 32.5% 19.8% 47.8% -2.8 2
1893-10-28 @ Renton W 1-0 1611 1520 47.8% 19.8% 32.5% +2.8 19
1893-11-04 Dundee W 3-1 1637 1572 53.5% 19.5% 27.0% +3.8 22
1893-11-04 @ Celtic L 1-3 1572 1637 27.0% 19.5% 53.5% -3.8 8
1893-11-04 Leith Athletic W 1-0 1613 1555 52.6% 19.6% 27.8% +2.4 18
1893-11-04 @ Rangers L 0-1 1555 1613 27.8% 19.6% 52.6% -2.4 10
1893-11-04 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1518 1581 36.0% 20.0% 44.0% -2.7 2
1893-11-04 @ Renton W 3-2 1581 1518 44.0% 20.0% 36.0% +2.7 20
1893-11-04 Dumbarton W 2-1 1613 1572 50.5% 19.8% 29.7% +2.4 22
1893-11-04 @ St. Bernards L 1-2 1572 1613 29.7% 19.8% 50.5% -2.4 11
1893-11-04 Third Lanark W 4-2 1567 1551 47.1% 20.0% 32.8% +4.1 16
1893-11-04 @ St. Mirren L 2-4 1551 1567 32.8% 20.0% 47.1% -4.1 11
1893-11-11 Leith Athletic W 4-3 1568 1553 46.9% 20.0% 33.0% +2.5 11
1893-11-11 @ Dundee L 3-4 1553 1568 33.0% 20.0% 46.9% -2.5 10
1893-11-11 Celtic L 0-3 1515 1641 28.2% 19.3% 52.5% -6.7 2
1893-11-11 @ Renton W 3-0 1641 1515 52.5% 19.3% 28.2% +6.7 25
1893-11-11 Dumbarton L 1-2 1572 1569 45.2% 20.1% 34.7% -3.4 16
1893-11-11 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1569 1572 34.7% 20.1% 45.2% +3.4 14
1893-11-11 Rangers L 1-2 1547 1616 35.2% 20.0% 44.9% -2.8 11
1893-11-11 @ Third Lanark W 2-1 1616 1547 44.9% 20.0% 35.2% +2.8 21
1893-11-18 Renton W 2-0 1573 1508 53.4% 19.5% 27.1% +4.5 17
1893-11-18 @ Dumbarton L 0-2 1508 1573 27.1% 19.5% 53.4% -4.5 2
1893-11-18 St. Mirren D 1-1 1583 1568 46.9% 20.0% 33.0% -0.2 21
1893-11-18 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1568 1583 33.0% 20.0% 46.9% +0.2 17
1893-12-02 Renton W 3-2 1647 1504 62.7% 17.9% 19.4% +1.5 28
1893-12-02 @ Celtic L 2-3 1504 1647 19.4% 17.9% 62.7% -1.5 2
1893-12-02 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1550 1583 40.2% 20.2% 39.7% +0.0 11
1893-12-02 @ Leith Athletic D 2-2 1583 1550 39.7% 20.2% 40.2% +0.0 22
1893-12-09 Dumbarton W 4-0 1570 1577 43.9% 20.2% 35.9% +10.8 14
1893-12-09 @ Dundee L 0-4 1577 1570 35.9% 20.2% 43.9% -10.8 17
1893-12-09 St. Mirren L 0-4 1502 1568 35.6% 20.0% 44.4% -10.7 2
1893-12-09 @ Renton W 4-0 1568 1502 44.4% 20.0% 35.6% +10.7 20
1893-12-16 Dundee W 3-0 1583 1581 45.1% 20.1% 34.8% +8.0 25
1893-12-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1581 1583 34.8% 20.1% 45.1% -8.0 14
1893-12-23 Celtic L 4-5 1566 1649 33.4% 19.9% 46.7% -2.4 17
1893-12-23 @ Dumbarton W 5-4 1649 1566 46.7% 19.9% 33.4% +2.4 31
1893-12-23 Third Lanark L 0-3 1619 1544 54.7% 19.4% 25.9% -11.7 21
1893-12-23 @ Rangers W 3-0 1544 1619 25.9% 19.4% 54.7% +11.7 14
1893-12-30 Celtic L 1-3 1556 1651 31.7% 19.7% 48.5% -4.4 14
1893-12-30 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1651 1556 48.5% 19.7% 31.7% +4.4 34
1894-01-20 Rangers W 2-0 1564 1607 38.7% 20.1% 41.1% +6.3 20
1894-01-20 @ Dumbarton L 0-2 1607 1564 41.1% 20.1% 38.7% -6.3 21
1894-01-20 Celtic L 1-2 1616 1656 39.2% 20.1% 40.7% -3.0 22
1894-01-20 @ St. Bernards W 2-1 1656 1616 40.7% 20.1% 39.2% +3.0 37
1894-01-20 St. Mirren W 3-1 1551 1579 40.9% 20.2% 38.9% +5.2 17
1894-01-20 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1579 1551 38.9% 20.2% 40.9% -5.2 20
1894-01-27 Third Lanark L 0-3 1492 1556 35.8% 20.0% 44.2% -8.2 2
1894-01-27 @ Renton W 3-0 1556 1492 44.2% 20.0% 35.8% +8.2 20
1894-01-27 Dundee L 3-5 1613 1573 50.2% 19.8% 30.0% -5.5 22
1894-01-27 @ St. Bernards W 5-3 1573 1613 30.0% 19.8% 50.2% +5.5 17
1894-01-27 Rangers D 2-2 1574 1601 41.0% 20.2% 38.8% -0.0 21
1894-01-27 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1601 1574 38.8% 20.2% 41.0% +0.0 22
1894-02-03 Leith Athletic W 3-1 1570 1550 47.6% 20.0% 32.4% +4.5 23
1894-02-03 @ Dumbarton L 1-3 1550 1570 32.4% 20.0% 47.6% -4.5 11
1894-02-10 St. Mirren W 5-1 1659 1574 56.0% 19.2% 24.9% +6.5 40
1894-02-10 @ Celtic L 1-5 1574 1659 24.9% 19.2% 56.0% -6.5 21
1894-02-10 Renton W 8-1 1579 1483 57.2% 19.0% 23.8% +10.5 20
1894-02-10 @ Dundee L 1-8 1483 1579 23.8% 19.0% 57.2% -10.5 2
1894-02-17 Leith Athletic W 2-1 1473 1546 34.7% 20.0% 45.4% +3.4 5
1894-02-17 @ Renton L 1-2 1546 1473 45.4% 20.0% 34.7% -3.4 11
1894-02-17 Dundee W 10-3 1567 1589 41.8% 20.2% 38.1% +11.5 24
1894-02-17 @ St. Mirren L 3-10 1589 1567 38.1% 20.2% 41.8% -11.5 20
1894-02-24 Rangers W 3-2 1665 1601 53.4% 19.5% 27.1% +2.1 43
1894-02-24 @ Celtic L 2-3 1601 1665 27.1% 19.5% 53.4% -2.1 22
1894-02-24 Third Lanark D 1-1 1578 1565 46.6% 20.1% 33.3% -0.2 21
1894-02-24 @ Dundee D 1-1 1565 1578 33.3% 20.1% 46.6% +0.2 21
1894-03-03 Renton W 5-1 1591 1476 59.5% 18.6% 21.9% +5.8 28
1894-03-03 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1476 1591 21.9% 18.6% 59.5% -5.8 5
1894-03-10 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1668 1597 54.1% 19.4% 26.4% -3.8 43
1894-03-10 @ Celtic W 3-2 1597 1668 26.4% 19.4% 54.1% +3.8 31
1894-03-10 Dundee W 7-2 1599 1577 47.7% 20.0% 32.3% +8.4 25
1894-03-10 @ Rangers L 2-7 1577 1599 32.3% 20.0% 47.7% -8.4 21
1894-03-10 Leith Athletic W 3-2 1607 1542 53.4% 19.5% 27.0% +2.1 25
1894-03-10 @ St. Bernards L 2-3 1542 1607 27.0% 19.5% 53.4% -2.1 11
1894-03-17 Third Lanark W 2-1 1575 1565 46.2% 20.1% 33.7% +2.7 26
1894-03-17 @ Dumbarton L 1-2 1565 1575 33.7% 20.1% 46.2% -2.7 21
1894-03-17 Celtic W 5-0 1540 1664 28.4% 19.3% 52.2% +18.1 14
1894-03-17 @ Leith Athletic L 0-5 1664 1540 52.2% 19.3% 28.4% -18.0 43
1894-03-31 St. Mirren W 8-3 1609 1579 49.0% 19.9% 31.1% +7.4 28
1894-03-31 @ St. Bernards L 3-8 1579 1609 31.1% 19.9% 49.0% -7.4 24
1894-04-07 St. Bernards L 2-4 1601 1617 42.6% 20.2% 37.2% -5.0 31
1894-04-07 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-2 1617 1601 37.2% 20.2% 42.6% +5.0 31
1894-04-14 Third Lanark L 2-3 1558 1562 44.3% 20.1% 35.6% -3.2 14
1894-04-14 @ Leith Athletic W 3-2 1562 1558 35.6% 20.1% 44.3% +3.2 24
1894-04-14 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1607 1596 46.4% 20.1% 33.6% -3.5 25
1894-04-14 @ Rangers W 2-1 1596 1607 33.6% 20.1% 46.4% +3.5 34
1894-04-21 St. Mirren W 5-0 1603 1571 49.2% 19.9% 30.9% +11.7 28
1894-04-21 @ Rangers L 0-5 1571 1603 30.9% 19.9% 49.2% -11.7 24
1894-04-28 Dumbarton W 2-1 1599 1577 47.8% 20.0% 32.2% +2.6 37
1894-04-28 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1577 1599 32.2% 20.0% 47.8% -2.6 26
1894-05-02 St. Bernards L 1-2 1615 1622 43.9% 20.2% 35.9% -3.3 28
1894-05-02 @ Rangers W 2-1 1622 1615 35.9% 20.2% 43.9% +3.3 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1893-12-23 25.94% Third Lanark 1544 3 @ Rangers 1619 0
2 1894-03-10 26.42% Heart of Midlothian 1597 3 @ Celtic 1668 2
3 1894-03-17 28.44% @ Leith Athletic 1540 5 Celtic 1664 0
4 1893-10-07 28.88% Heart of Midlothian 1565 2 @ St. Bernards 1614 1
5 1893-09-23 29.44% St. Mirren 1554 3 @ Dundee 1598 0
6 1894-01-27 29.99% Dundee 1573 5 @ St. Bernards 1613 3
7 1893-09-02 32.18% St. Mirren 1548 5 @ Leith Athletic 1570 2
8 1894-04-14 33.57% Heart of Midlothian 1596 2 @ Rangers 1607 1
9 1893-10-21 34.29% Heart of Midlothian 1573 5 @ Dundee 1579 2
10 1894-02-17 34.68% @ Renton 1473 2 Leith Athletic 1546 1
11 1893-09-02 34.69% Heart of Midlothian 1563 3 @ Third Lanark 1566 1
12 1893-11-11 34.73% Dumbarton 1569 2 @ St. Mirren 1572 1
13 1894-04-14 35.56% Third Lanark 1562 3 @ Leith Athletic 1558 2
14 1893-08-19 35.68% Leith Athletic 1572 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1567 0
15 1893-10-28 35.87% Dumbarton 1566 4 @ Leith Athletic 1560 2
16 1894-05-02 35.94% St. Bernards 1622 2 @ Rangers 1615 1
17 1893-08-26 36.29% Heart of Midlothian 1560 3 @ St. Mirren 1551 2
18 1893-09-09 36.48% Dumbarton 1570 3 @ Third Lanark 1560 1
19 1893-09-02 36.87% St. Bernards 1594 5 @ Dumbarton 1581 1
20 1894-04-07 37.22% St. Bernards 1617 4 @ Heart of Midlothian 1601 2
21 1893-09-18 37.49% @ Leith Athletic 1558 4 St. Bernards 1610 2
22 1893-10-14 37.78% @ Heart of Midlothian 1568 4 Rangers 1618 2
23 1893-09-30 37.86% St. Bernards 1608 3 @ Dundee 1588 1
24 1893-09-02 38.10% @ Rangers 1591 5 Celtic 1639 0
25 1894-01-20 38.74% @ Dumbarton 1564 2 Rangers 1607 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1894-03-17 18.06 @ Leith Athletic 5 1540 28.44% Celtic 0 1664 52.23%
2 1893-09-02 14.99 @ Rangers 5 1591 38.10% Celtic 0 1639 41.79%
3 1893-12-23 11.72 Third Lanark 3 1544 25.94% @ Rangers 0 1619 54.69%
4 1894-04-21 11.70 @ Rangers 5 1603 49.19% St. Mirren 0 1571 30.90%
5 1894-02-17 11.52 @ St. Mirren 10 1567 41.75% Dundee 3 1589 38.08%
6 1893-08-12 11.17 @ Celtic 5 1615 50.95% Third Lanark 0 1570 29.28%
7 1893-09-23 10.97 St. Mirren 3 1554 29.44% @ Dundee 0 1598 50.78%
8 1893-12-09 10.77 @ Dundee 4 1570 43.91% Dumbarton 0 1577 35.95%
9 1893-12-09 10.67 St. Mirren 4 1568 44.41% @ Renton 0 1502 35.58%
10 1894-02-10 10.50 @ Dundee 8 1579 57.17% Renton 1 1483 23.83%
11 1893-09-02 10.37 St. Bernards 5 1594 36.87% @ Dumbarton 1 1581 42.97%
12 1893-09-23 9.47 @ Rangers 4 1609 49.31% Dumbarton 0 1576 30.79%
13 1894-03-10 8.41 @ Rangers 7 1599 47.73% Dundee 2 1577 32.27%
14 1894-01-27 8.20 Third Lanark 3 1556 44.22% @ Renton 0 1492 35.76%
15 1893-12-16 8.02 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1583 45.11% Dundee 0 1581 34.77%
16 1893-08-19 7.73 Celtic 4 1626 38.85% @ Dundee 1 1599 40.98%
17 1893-09-02 7.62 St. Mirren 5 1548 32.18% @ Leith Athletic 2 1570 47.83%
18 1894-03-31 7.36 @ St. Bernards 8 1609 48.99% St. Mirren 3 1579 31.08%
19 1893-10-21 7.31 Heart of Midlothian 5 1573 34.29% @ Dundee 2 1579 45.61%
20 1893-08-19 6.71 Leith Athletic 2 1572 35.68% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1567 44.18%
21 1893-11-11 6.67 Celtic 3 1641 52.53% @ Renton 0 1515 28.18%
22 1894-02-10 6.53 @ Celtic 5 1659 55.95% St. Mirren 1 1574 24.86%
23 1893-10-21 6.37 @ St. Bernards 6 1604 51.18% Third Lanark 2 1557 29.07%
24 1894-01-20 6.33 @ Dumbarton 2 1564 38.74% Rangers 0 1607 41.12%
25 1893-09-02 5.93 Heart of Midlothian 3 1563 34.69% @ Third Lanark 1 1566 45.19%