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1894-95 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Heart of Midlothian

31 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Leith Athletic

failed re-election

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

7.37 points above expected

31 points · 23.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dumbarton

6.51 points below expected

7 points · 13.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian Champion 18 15 1 2 31 50 18 +32 23.63 +7.37
2 Celtic 18 11 4 3 26 50 29 +21 23.78 +2.22
3 Rangers 18 10 2 6 22 41 26 +15 23.42 -1.42
4 Third Lanark 18 10 1 7 21 51 39 +12 17.70 +3.30
5 St. Mirren 18 9 1 8 19 34 34 0 17.74 +1.26
6 St. Bernards 18 8 1 9 17 37 40 -3 18.41 -1.41
7 Clyde 18 8 0 10 16 38 47 -9 12.21 +3.79
8 Dundee 18 6 2 10 14 28 33 -5 16.89 -2.89
9 Dumbarton 18 3 1 14 7 27 58 -31 13.51 -6.51
10 Leith Athletic Relegated 18 3 1 14 7 32 64 -32 12.71 -5.71

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 31 23.63 +7.37
2 Clyde 16 12.21 +3.79
3 Third Lanark 21 17.70 +3.30
4 Celtic 26 23.78 +2.22
5 St. Mirren 19 17.74 +1.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dumbarton 7 13.51 -6.51
2 Leith Athletic 7 12.71 -5.71
3 Dundee 14 16.89 -2.89
4 Rangers 22 23.42 -1.42
5 St. Bernards 17 18.41 -1.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 11 Aug 18 – Nov 17 1 in 514
2 Third Lanark 3 Oct 20 – Nov 10 1 in 25
3 Clyde 2 Sep 22 – Sep 29 1 in 19
4 Rangers 4 Aug 18 – Sep 8 1 in 8
5 Celtic 4 Sep 8 – Oct 20 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 9 Sep 8 – Nov 10 1 in 159
2 Leith Athletic 6 Aug 18 – Sep 17 1 in 37
3 Rangers 2 Jan 26 – Feb 16 1 in 22
4 St. Mirren 3 Mar 23 – Apr 4 1 in 19
5 Heart of Midlothian 1 Dec 1 – Dec 1 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 11 Aug 18 – Nov 17 1 in 108
2 Third Lanark 6 Dec 22 – Apr 6 1 in 47
3 St. Mirren 5 Nov 10 – Mar 16 1 in 31
4 Clyde 2 Sep 22 – Sep 29 1 in 9
5 Dumbarton 2 Mar 30 – Apr 6 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 9 Sep 8 – Nov 10 1 in 45
2 Celtic 3 Dec 22 – Feb 23 1 in 21
3 Leith Athletic 6 Aug 18 – Sep 17 1 in 15
4 Rangers 3 Jan 19 – Feb 16 1 in 15
5 St. Mirren 3 Mar 23 – Apr 4 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Heart of Midlothian 1667 31 +48 7 7.4 -0.4
Celtic 1570 26 +27 9 7.5 +1.5
Rangers 1518 22 -34 5 7.1 -2.1
Third Lanark 1470 21 +50 8 7.2 +0.8
St. Mirren 1386 19 -49 4 5.0 -1.0
St. Bernards 1374 17 -26 4 4.1 -0.1
Clyde 1298 16 +2 4 3.3 +0.7
Dundee 1344 14 -20 2 3.1 -1.1
Leith Athletic 1221 7 -33 3 3.5 -0.5
Dumbarton 1242 7 +6 3 3.2 -0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL CLY DUM DUN HOM LA RAN SB SM TL
Celtic —
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.79
1-1-0
3.87
0-0-2
2.67
2-0-0
4.88
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.69
0-1-1
3.72
Clyde
0-0-2
1.29
 —
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.04
2-0-0
0.85
1-0-1
2.52
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
1.64
0-0-2
2.39
1-0-1
2.24
Dumbarton
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
2.61
 —
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
1.43
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
1.45
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
1.76
0-0-2
1.78
Dundee
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
3.80
2-0-0
3.15
 —
0-0-2
1.27
1-0-1
3.70
1-0-1
1.54
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.83
1-0-1
2.61
Heart of Midlothian
2-0-0
3.16
0-0-2
4.98
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
4.56
 —
2-0-0
4.74
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.28
Leith Athletic
0-0-2
0.96
1-0-1
3.31
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.09
 —
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.35
Rangers
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
4.32
1-0-1
4.38
1-0-1
4.29
0-1-1
2.73
2-0-0
4.42
 —
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
4.25
St. Bernards
0-0-2
2.31
1-0-1
4.20
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
2.94
0-0-2
1.66
2-0-0
3.59
0-0-2
2.38
 —
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-2
3.14
St. Mirren
0-1-1
2.14
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
4.07
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-2
2.15
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
3.08
 —
1-0-1
2.75
Third Lanark
1-1-0
2.12
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-1
3.22
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
3.48
1-0-1
1.59
2-0-0
2.69
1-0-1
3.09
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +7.2
Allowed 0.83 -4.9
Differential 0.97 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%3.89%6.67%3.33%2.78%1.11%18.89%
13.89%3.33%4.44%2.22%4.44%2.22%20.56%
26.67%4.44%2.22%3.33%4.44%1.11%22.22%
33.33%2.22%3.33%—3.33%2.22%14.44%
42.78%4.44%4.44%3.33%1.11%—16.11%
5+1.11%2.22%1.11%2.22%—1.11%7.78%
Total18.89%20.56%22.22%14.44%16.11%7.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.42
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
5+5.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
Total33.33%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.61 +1.17
SD 1.93 1.58 2.28
CV 0.69 0.98 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
1——5.56%—16.67%5.56%27.78%
25.56%———16.67%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%5.56%38.89%5.56%33.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.61 -0.50
SD 1.41 1.46 2.33
CV 0.67 0.56 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%—11.11%27.78%
15.56%5.56%—11.11%5.56%—27.78%
2———5.56%11.11%—16.67%
3——5.56%—11.11%5.56%22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%27.78%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.22 -1.72
SD 1.29 1.63 2.14
CV 0.86 0.51 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%—5.56%—33.33%
1—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.83 -0.28
SD 1.50 1.20 2.22
CV 0.97 0.65 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%—————11.11%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
411.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total50.00%27.78%—16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.00 +1.78
SD 1.44 1.33 1.63
CV 0.52 1.33 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%38.89%
2—5.56%—11.11%—5.56%22.22%
3——11.11%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total—11.11%22.22%16.67%22.22%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 3.56 -1.78
SD 1.26 1.76 1.93
CV 0.71 0.49 —
Max 5 7 +1
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
35.56%————5.56%11.11%
4—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%50.00%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.44 +0.83
SD 1.78 1.42 1.98
CV 0.78 0.99 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
216.67%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%——5.56%——11.11%
Total27.78%5.56%16.67%22.22%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.22 -0.17
SD 1.76 1.70 2.64
CV 0.86 0.76 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.89 +0.00
SD 1.64 1.32 2.14
CV 0.87 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
3————5.56%5.56%11.11%
411.11%—16.67%—5.56%—33.33%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 2.17 +0.67
SD 2.01 1.58 2.61
CV 0.71 0.73 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Heart of Midlothian 1667 31 23.63 +7.37 99.0% 10 17 22 24 26 29 32
Celtic 1570 26 23.78 +2.22 76.0% 16 19 21 24 26 29 32
Rangers 1518 22 23.42 -1.42 43.0% 11 18 21 23 26 29 32
Third Lanark 1470 21 17.70 +3.30 85.0% 10 12 16 18 20 23 27
St. Mirren 1386 19 17.74 +1.26 61.0% 8 11 15 17 21 24 27
St. Bernards 1374 17 18.41 -1.41 39.0% 9 12 16 18 21 25 27
Dundee 1344 14 16.89 -2.89 23.0% 8 11 15 16 19 22 29
Clyde 1298 16 12.21 +3.79 93.0% 4 6 10 12 14 17 20
Dumbarton 1242 7 13.51 -6.51 4.0% 5 9 11 13 16 19 23
Leith Athletic 1221 7 12.71 -5.71 7.0% 3 7 10 13 15 18 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 24.5% * Strong Edge: 24.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
Slight Edge
55.56%7.78%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
145 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
066.42400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.60 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Heart of Midlothian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Runaway
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.87 * Some Luck: 2.87 to 4.31 * Lucky: 4.31 to 5.75 * Wild Swing: 5.75 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.22 * Close: 1.22 to 1.83 * Off: 1.83 to 2.43 * Way Off: 2.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.71 * A Surprise: 0.71 to 1.14 * Several Surprises: 1.14 to 1.56 * Many Surprises: 1.56 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.16 points
Some Luck
03.599
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.524
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Heart of Midlothian
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
Dumbarton
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 73% * Wide Edge: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 93.5% * Strong Edge: 93.5% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 61% * Very Frequent: 61% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17.5% * Occasional: 17.5% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 145.28
1.87
Moderate Separation
11.852.12.353
Interquartile Edge
76%
Wide Edge
50%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
93%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
39%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.55 * Some Carryover: 0.55 to 0.66 * Strong Carryover: 0.66 to 0.78 * Near-Lock: 0.78 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20% * As Expected: 20% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Slight Separation
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.69
Strong Carryover
00.550.781
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.105
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Heart of Midlothian38.00%26.00%18.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%
Celtic33.00%23.00%22.00%18.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%———
Rangers21.00%34.00%20.00%14.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%——1.00%
Third Lanark2.00%4.00%9.00%16.00%22.00%21.00%10.00%6.00%7.00%3.00%
St. Mirren—9.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%17.00%17.00%6.00%1.00%
St. Bernards4.00%4.00%11.00%16.00%15.00%17.00%13.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%
Clyde———1.00%1.00%7.00%17.00%15.00%30.00%29.00%
Dundee2.00%—3.00%13.00%25.00%18.00%18.00%13.00%3.00%5.00%
Dumbarton——2.00%1.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%18.00%20.00%29.00%
Leith Athletic——1.00%2.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%16.00%30.00%29.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 99.00% 1.00%
Rangers 99.00% 1.00%
St. Mirren 99.00% 1.00%
St. Bernards 98.00% 2.00%
Third Lanark 97.00% 3.00%
Dundee 95.00% 5.00%
Clyde 71.00% 29.00%
Dumbarton 71.00% 29.00%
Leith Athletic 71.00% 29.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1894-08-11 Celtic D 1-162.8 1379 1479 46.87% 8.25% 44.89%-0.23 -0.2 1
1894-08-11 @ Dundee D 1-162.8 1479 1379 44.89% 8.25% 46.87%+0.23 +0.2 1
1894-08-18 St. Bernards W 5-244.4 1479 1467 61.95% 8.24% 29.81%+0.54 +20.2 3
1894-08-18 @ Celtic L 2-544.4 1467 1479 29.81% 8.24% 61.95%-0.54 -20.2 0
1894-08-18 Clyde W 4-129.4 1379 1228 75.75% 8.21% 16.03%+1.50 +12.9 3
1894-08-18 @ Dundee L 1-429.4 1228 1379 16.03% 8.21% 75.75%-1.50 -12.9 0
1894-08-18 Third Lanark W 6-343.2 1443 1411 64.34% 8.24% 27.42%+0.68 +17.3 2
1894-08-18 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-643.2 1411 1443 27.42% 8.24% 64.34%-0.68 -17.3 0
1894-08-18 St. Mirren L 1-252.1 1398 1401 60.01% 8.25% 31.75%+0.44 -18.3 0
1894-08-18 @ Leith Athletic W 2-152.1 1401 1398 31.75% 8.25% 60.01%-0.44 +18.3 2
1894-08-18 Dumbarton W 3-032.1 1479 1405 68.87% 8.23% 22.90%+0.97 +21.5 2
1894-08-18 @ Rangers L 0-332.1 1405 1479 22.90% 8.23% 68.87%-0.97 -21.6 0
1894-08-25 Leith Athletic W 5-244.6 1215 1380 37.77% 8.24% 53.99%-0.68 +35.1 2
1894-08-25 @ Clyde L 2-544.6 1380 1215 53.99% 8.24% 37.77%+0.68 -35.2 0
1894-08-25 Rangers L 1-447.7 1446 1501 53.27% 8.25% 38.48%+0.08 -40.1 0
1894-08-25 @ St. Bernards W 4-147.7 1501 1446 38.48% 8.25% 53.27%-0.08 +40.1 4
1894-08-25 Celtic W 2-150.3 1393 1499 46.02% 8.25% 45.73%-0.27 +14.2 2
1894-08-25 @ Third Lanark L 1-250.3 1499 1393 45.73% 8.25% 46.02%+0.27 -14.2 3
1894-09-01 Leith Athletic W 3-245.1 1384 1345 65.07% 8.24% 26.69%+0.73 +8.1 2
1894-09-01 @ Dumbarton L 2-345.1 1345 1384 26.69% 8.24% 65.07%-0.73 -8.1 0
1894-09-01 St. Mirren W 1-040.7 1461 1420 65.27% 8.24% 26.49%+0.74 +9.0 4
1894-09-01 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-140.7 1420 1461 26.49% 8.24% 65.27%-0.74 -9.0 2
1894-09-01 Dundee W 1-039.3 1541 1392 75.66% 8.21% 16.13%+1.49 +5.6 6
1894-09-01 @ Rangers L 0-139.3 1392 1541 16.13% 8.21% 75.66%-1.49 -5.6 3
1894-09-08 St. Bernards L 1-436.8 1250 1406 38.95% 8.24% 52.81%-0.62 -30.0 2
1894-09-08 @ Clyde W 4-136.8 1406 1250 52.81% 8.24% 38.95%+0.62 +30.0 2
1894-09-08 Dumbarton W 3-032.1 1386 1392 59.70% 8.25% 32.05%+0.42 +29.6 5
1894-09-08 @ Dundee L 0-332.1 1392 1386 32.05% 8.25% 59.70%-0.42 -29.6 2
1894-09-08 Rangers L 3-454.0 1336 1547 31.79% 8.23% 59.97%-0.99 -9.4 0
1894-09-08 @ Leith Athletic W 4-354.0 1547 1336 59.97% 8.23% 31.79%+0.99 +9.4 8
1894-09-08 Celtic L 0-340.7 1411 1485 50.52% 8.25% 41.23%-0.05 -45.2 2
1894-09-08 @ St. Mirren W 3-040.7 1485 1411 41.23% 8.25% 50.52%+0.05 +45.2 5
1894-09-08 Heart of Midlothian L 0-340.6 1408 1470 52.22% 8.25% 39.53%+0.03 -46.6 2
1894-09-08 @ Third Lanark W 3-040.6 1470 1408 39.53% 8.25% 52.22%-0.03 +46.6 6
1894-09-15 St. Bernards L 3-457.4 1362 1436 50.53% 8.25% 41.22%-0.05 -14.4 2
1894-09-15 @ Dumbarton W 4-357.4 1436 1362 41.22% 8.25% 50.53%+0.05 +14.4 4
1894-09-15 Leith Athletic W 3-135.7 1516 1327 78.55% 8.20% 13.26%+1.77 +7.6 8
1894-09-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-335.7 1327 1516 13.26% 8.20% 78.55%-1.77 -7.6 0
1894-09-15 Dundee W 5-136.0 1365 1416 53.87% 8.25% 37.88%+0.11 +37.7 4
1894-09-15 @ St. Mirren L 1-536.0 1416 1365 37.88% 8.25% 53.87%-0.11 -37.7 5
1894-09-17 Leith Athletic W 6-338.2 1451 1319 74.18% 8.22% 17.60%+1.36 +11.3 6
1894-09-17 @ St. Bernards L 3-638.2 1319 1451 17.60% 8.22% 74.18%-1.36 -11.3 0
1894-09-22 Rangers W 5-358.0 1530 1556 57.13% 8.25% 34.62%+0.28 +16.1 7
1894-09-22 @ Celtic L 3-558.0 1556 1530 34.62% 8.25% 57.13%-0.28 -16.1 8
1894-09-22 Third Lanark W 3-247.8 1308 1361 53.50% 8.25% 38.25%+0.09 +11.4 2
1894-09-22 @ Leith Athletic L 2-347.8 1361 1308 38.25% 8.25% 53.50%-0.09 -11.4 2
1894-09-22 Clyde L 0-345.5 1462 1220 81.68% 8.17% 10.15%+2.13 -72.9 6
1894-09-22 @ St. Bernards W 3-045.5 1220 1462 10.15% 8.17% 81.68%-2.13 +72.9 4
1894-09-22 Dumbarton W 4-348.8 1403 1348 66.91% 8.24% 24.85%+0.84 +7.4 6
1894-09-22 @ St. Mirren L 3-448.8 1348 1403 24.85% 8.24% 66.91%-0.84 -7.4 2
1894-09-29 Third Lanark W 4-351.5 1293 1349 53.03% 8.25% 38.72%+0.07 +11.3 6
1894-09-29 @ Clyde L 3-451.5 1349 1293 38.72% 8.25% 53.03%-0.07 -11.3 2
1894-09-29 Heart of Midlothian L 1-439.5 1340 1524 35.21% 8.24% 56.55%-0.81 -27.3 2
1894-09-29 @ Dumbarton W 4-139.5 1524 1340 56.55% 8.24% 35.21%+0.81 +27.3 10
1894-09-29 St. Bernards D 2-264.7 1378 1389 59.01% 8.25% 32.75%+0.38 -1.6 6
1894-09-29 @ Dundee D 2-264.7 1389 1378 32.75% 8.25% 59.01%-0.38 +1.6 7
1894-09-29 St. Mirren W 4-352.1 1540 1411 74.01% 8.22% 17.77%+1.35 +5.4 10
1894-09-29 @ Rangers L 3-452.1 1411 1540 17.77% 8.22% 74.01%-1.35 -5.4 6
1894-10-06 St. Bernards W 4-351.1 1551 1391 76.51% 8.21% 15.28%+1.57 +4.7 12
1894-10-06 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-451.1 1391 1551 15.28% 8.21% 76.51%-1.57 -4.7 7
1894-10-13 Celtic L 2-444.6 1304 1546 27.96% 8.23% 63.81%-1.21 -13.9 6
1894-10-13 @ Clyde W 4-244.6 1546 1304 63.81% 8.23% 27.96%+1.21 +13.9 9
1894-10-13 Dundee L 2-448.7 1313 1376 52.04% 8.25% 39.71%+0.02 -24.8 2
1894-10-13 @ Dumbarton W 4-248.7 1376 1313 39.71% 8.25% 52.04%-0.02 +24.8 8
1894-10-13 St. Bernards L 0-240.5 1320 1386 51.61% 8.25% 40.14%+0.00 -31.8 2
1894-10-13 @ Leith Athletic W 2-040.5 1386 1320 40.14% 8.25% 51.61%+0.00 +31.8 9
1894-10-13 Heart of Midlothian L 1-250.9 1405 1556 39.70% 8.24% 52.06%-0.58 -12.5 6
1894-10-13 @ St. Mirren W 2-150.9 1556 1405 52.06% 8.24% 39.70%+0.58 +12.5 14
1894-10-13 Rangers L 0-238.5 1338 1545 32.18% 8.23% 59.59%-0.97 -20.5 2
1894-10-13 @ Third Lanark W 2-038.5 1545 1338 59.59% 8.23% 32.18%+0.97 +20.5 12
1894-10-20 Dumbarton W 6-024.8 1560 1288 83.18% 8.16% 8.66%+2.34 +16.0 11
1894-10-20 @ Celtic L 0-624.8 1288 1560 8.66% 8.16% 83.18%-2.34 -16.1 2
1894-10-20 Dundee W 3-250.6 1288 1401 44.95% 8.25% 46.80%-0.32 +13.8 4
1894-10-20 @ Leith Athletic L 2-350.6 1401 1288 46.80% 8.25% 44.95%+0.32 -13.8 8
1894-10-20 Heart of Midlothian L 0-159.7 1566 1568 60.11% 8.25% 31.64%+0.44 -19.5 12
1894-10-20 @ Rangers W 1-059.7 1568 1566 31.64% 8.25% 60.11%-0.44 +19.5 16
1894-10-20 Third Lanark L 2-455.2 1418 1318 71.41% 8.23% 20.37%+1.15 -33.8 9
1894-10-20 @ St. Bernards W 4-255.2 1318 1418 20.37% 8.23% 71.41%-1.15 +33.8 4
1894-10-20 Clyde W 4-239.1 1393 1291 71.61% 8.23% 20.16%+1.16 +10.2 8
1894-10-20 @ St. Mirren L 2-439.1 1291 1393 20.16% 8.23% 71.61%-1.16 -10.2 6
1894-10-27 Dumbarton W 3-134.2 1588 1272 85.00% 8.13% 6.87%+2.64 +4.0 18
1894-10-27 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-334.2 1272 1588 6.87% 8.13% 85.00%-2.64 -4.0 2
1894-11-03 Heart of Midlothian L 0-256.1 1576 1592 58.46% 8.25% 33.29%+0.35 -35.8 11
1894-11-03 @ Celtic W 2-056.1 1592 1576 33.29% 8.25% 58.46%-0.35 +35.8 20
1894-11-03 Clyde L 2-353.1 1268 1280 58.87% 8.25% 32.89%+0.37 -17.1 2
1894-11-03 @ Dumbarton W 3-253.1 1280 1268 32.89% 8.25% 58.87%-0.37 +17.1 8
1894-11-03 Third Lanark L 1-252.3 1387 1352 64.71% 8.24% 27.05%+0.71 -19.8 8
1894-11-03 @ Dundee W 2-152.3 1352 1387 27.05% 8.24% 64.71%-0.71 +19.8 6
1894-11-03 Leith Athletic W 5-129.2 1546 1302 81.84% 8.17% 9.99%+2.15 +10.5 14
1894-11-03 @ Rangers L 1-529.2 1302 1546 9.99% 8.17% 81.84%-2.15 -10.5 4
1894-11-03 St. Mirren W 2-036.5 1384 1403 58.00% 8.25% 33.75%+0.33 +21.4 11
1894-11-03 @ St. Bernards L 0-236.5 1403 1384 33.75% 8.25% 58.00%-0.33 -21.4 8
1894-11-10 Celtic L 0-243.5 1405 1540 41.86% 8.25% 49.90%-0.47 -26.2 11
1894-11-10 @ St. Bernards W 2-043.5 1540 1405 49.90% 8.25% 41.86%+0.47 +26.2 13
1894-11-10 Leith Athletic W 3-242.8 1382 1291 70.50% 8.23% 21.27%+1.08 +6.6 10
1894-11-10 @ St. Mirren L 2-342.8 1291 1382 21.27% 8.23% 70.50%-1.08 -6.6 4
1894-11-10 Dumbarton W 6-336.6 1371 1251 73.25% 8.22% 18.53%+1.29 +11.9 8
1894-11-10 @ Third Lanark L 3-636.6 1251 1371 18.53% 8.22% 73.25%-1.29 -11.9 2
1894-11-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-435.8 1284 1627 17.77% 8.19% 74.04%-1.91 -14.2 4
1894-11-17 @ Leith Athletic W 4-135.8 1627 1284 74.04% 8.19% 17.77%+1.91 +14.2 22
1894-12-01 Rangers W 1-052.1 1239 1557 20.02% 8.20% 71.78%-1.73 +23.3 4
1894-12-01 @ Dumbarton L 0-152.1 1557 1239 71.78% 8.20% 20.02%+1.73 -23.3 14
1894-12-01 Leith Athletic W 4-131.1 1368 1270 71.16% 8.23% 20.62%+1.13 +16.4 10
1894-12-01 @ Dundee L 1-431.1 1270 1368 20.62% 8.23% 71.16%-1.13 -16.4 4
1894-12-01 Clyde L 2-464.9 1642 1298 86.00% 8.12% 5.89%+2.84 -41.0 22
1894-12-01 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-264.9 1298 1642 5.89% 8.12% 86.00%-2.84 +41.0 10
1894-12-01 Third Lanark W 2-035.3 1388 1383 61.03% 8.24% 30.72%+0.49 +19.6 12
1894-12-01 @ St. Mirren L 0-235.3 1383 1388 30.72% 8.24% 61.03%-0.49 -19.6 8
1894-12-08 Rangers L 1-537.1 1339 1533 33.73% 8.24% 58.03%-0.89 -33.8 10
1894-12-08 @ Clyde W 5-137.1 1533 1339 58.03% 8.24% 33.73%+0.89 +33.8 16
1894-12-08 Dundee W 2-035.5 1379 1384 59.82% 8.25% 31.94%+0.43 +20.3 13
1894-12-08 @ St. Bernards L 0-235.5 1384 1379 31.94% 8.25% 59.82%-0.43 -20.3 10
1894-12-22 St. Mirren D 2-270.8 1567 1408 76.39% 8.21% 15.40%+1.56 -3.8 14
1894-12-22 @ Celtic D 2-270.8 1408 1567 15.40% 8.21% 76.39%-1.56 +3.7 13
1894-12-22 Heart of Midlothian L 0-240.2 1364 1601 28.52% 8.23% 63.25%-1.18 -18.3 10
1894-12-22 @ Dundee W 2-040.2 1601 1364 63.25% 8.23% 28.52%+1.18 +18.3 24
1894-12-22 Dumbarton W 5-023.3 1400 1262 74.68% 8.22% 17.11%+1.41 +26.2 15
1894-12-22 @ St. Bernards L 0-523.3 1262 1400 17.11% 8.22% 74.68%-1.41 -26.2 4
1894-12-22 Leith Athletic W 7-127.5 1364 1254 72.31% 8.22% 19.46%+1.22 +29.1 10
1894-12-22 @ Third Lanark L 1-727.5 1254 1364 19.46% 8.22% 72.31%-1.22 -29.1 4
1895-01-19 Rangers D 0-071.0 1619 1567 66.48% 8.24% 25.28%+0.82 -3.7 25
1895-01-19 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-071.0 1567 1619 25.28% 8.24% 66.48%-0.82 +3.7 17
1895-01-26 Rangers W 2-155.9 1345 1571 29.88% 8.23% 61.89%-1.10 +18.9 12
1895-01-26 @ Dundee L 1-255.9 1571 1345 61.89% 8.23% 29.88%+1.10 -18.9 17
1895-02-16 Celtic W 4-040.5 1615 1563 66.57% 8.24% 25.20%+0.82 +30.8 27
1895-02-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-440.5 1563 1615 25.20% 8.24% 66.57%-0.82 -30.8 14
1895-02-16 Third Lanark L 0-157.9 1552 1393 76.43% 8.21% 15.36%+1.56 -24.8 17
1895-02-16 @ Rangers W 1-057.9 1393 1552 15.36% 8.21% 76.43%-1.56 +24.8 12
1895-02-22 Clyde W 4-131.4 1527 1305 80.62% 8.18% 11.20%+2.00 +9.1 19
1895-02-22 @ Rangers L 1-431.4 1305 1527 11.20% 8.18% 80.62%-2.00 -9.1 10
1895-02-23 Third Lanark D 4-477.4 1532 1418 72.73% 8.22% 19.05%+1.25 -2.4 15
1895-02-23 @ Celtic D 4-477.4 1418 1532 19.05% 8.22% 72.73%-1.25 +2.4 13
1895-03-02 Third Lanark L 2-443.3 1236 1420 35.19% 8.24% 56.57%-0.81 -17.2 4
1895-03-02 @ Dumbarton W 4-243.3 1420 1236 56.57% 8.24% 35.19%+0.81 +17.2 15
1895-03-02 Clyde W 2-143.2 1225 1296 50.98% 8.25% 40.77%-0.03 +12.8 6
1895-03-02 @ Leith Athletic L 1-243.2 1296 1225 40.77% 8.25% 50.98%+0.03 -12.8 10
1895-03-09 Celtic L 0-231.8 1219 1530 20.67% 8.20% 71.13%-1.69 -13.5 4
1895-03-09 @ Dumbarton W 2-031.8 1530 1219 71.13% 8.20% 20.67%+1.69 +13.5 17
1895-03-09 Rangers W 4-253.9 1411 1536 43.30% 8.25% 48.46%-0.40 +23.2 15
1895-03-09 @ St. Mirren L 2-453.9 1536 1411 48.46% 8.25% 43.30%+0.40 -23.2 19
1895-03-16 Leith Athletic W 4-022.5 1543 1237 84.61% 8.14% 7.25%+2.57 +9.2 19
1895-03-16 @ Celtic L 0-422.5 1237 1543 7.25% 8.14% 84.61%-2.57 -9.2 6
1895-03-16 Dumbarton W 3-134.2 1283 1205 69.20% 8.23% 22.57%+0.99 +12.7 12
1895-03-16 @ Clyde L 1-334.2 1205 1283 22.57% 8.23% 69.20%-0.99 -12.7 4
1895-03-16 St. Mirren L 0-145.9 1364 1435 51.07% 8.25% 40.68%-0.03 -16.7 12
1895-03-16 @ Dundee W 1-045.9 1435 1364 40.68% 8.25% 51.07%+0.03 +16.7 17
1895-03-23 Heart of Midlothian W 3-265.0 1296 1646 17.14% 8.19% 74.67%-1.96 +21.7 14
1895-03-23 @ Clyde L 2-365.0 1646 1296 74.67% 8.19% 17.14%+1.96 -21.7 27
1895-03-23 Celtic D 1-170.1 1513 1552 55.36% 8.25% 36.39%+0.19 -1.5 20
1895-03-23 @ Rangers D 1-170.1 1552 1513 36.39% 8.25% 55.36%-0.19 +1.5 20
1895-03-23 St. Bernards L 0-151.7 1451 1426 63.52% 8.24% 28.24%+0.64 -20.6 17
1895-03-23 @ St. Mirren W 1-051.7 1426 1451 28.24% 8.24% 63.52%-0.64 +20.6 17
1895-03-30 St. Mirren W 4-143.8 1193 1431 28.40% 8.23% 63.37%-1.18 +47.4 6
1895-03-30 @ Dumbarton L 1-443.8 1431 1193 63.37% 8.23% 28.40%+1.18 -47.4 17
1895-03-30 Dundee W 4-028.6 1624 1348 83.40% 8.16% 8.45%+2.37 +10.7 29
1895-03-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-428.6 1348 1624 8.45% 8.16% 83.40%-2.37 -10.7 12
1895-03-30 Celtic L 5-651.3 1228 1554 19.30% 8.20% 72.50%-1.79 -5.7 6
1895-03-30 @ Leith Athletic W 6-551.3 1554 1228 72.50% 8.20% 19.30%+1.79 +5.7 22
1895-04-04 St. Mirren W 4-028.8 1437 1383 66.72% 8.24% 25.04%+0.83 +30.7 17
1895-04-04 @ Third Lanark L 0-428.8 1383 1437 25.04% 8.24% 66.72%-0.83 -30.7 17
1895-04-06 Dumbarton D 1-158.1 1223 1240 58.18% 8.25% 33.57%+0.34 -2.0 7
1895-04-06 @ Leith Athletic D 1-158.1 1240 1223 33.57% 8.25% 58.18%-0.34 +2.0 7
1895-04-06 Heart of Midlothian L 0-342.6 1446 1635 34.53% 8.24% 57.23%-0.84 -31.8 17
1895-04-06 @ St. Bernards W 3-042.6 1635 1446 57.23% 8.24% 34.53%+0.84 +31.8 31
1895-04-06 Clyde W 4-239.5 1468 1317 75.76% 8.21% 16.03%+1.50 +8.2 19
1895-04-06 @ Third Lanark L 2-439.5 1317 1468 16.03% 8.21% 75.76%-1.50 -8.2 14
1895-04-27 Clyde W 2-031.3 1559 1309 82.14% 8.17% 9.70%+2.19 +6.5 24
1895-04-27 @ Celtic L 0-231.3 1309 1559 9.70% 8.17% 82.14%-2.19 -6.5 14
1895-04-27 St. Bernards W 2-143.9 1512 1415 71.13% 8.23% 20.64%+1.13 +6.7 22
1895-04-27 @ Rangers L 1-243.9 1415 1512 20.64% 8.23% 71.13%-1.13 -6.7 17
1895-04-27 Dundee L 1-353.4 1476 1337 74.83% 8.21% 16.95%+1.42 -39.7 19
1895-04-27 @ Third Lanark W 3-153.4 1337 1476 16.95% 8.21% 74.83%-1.42 +39.7 14
1895-05-04 Dundee W 2-142.3 1566 1377 78.55% 8.20% 13.25%+1.77 +4.4 26
1895-05-04 @ Celtic L 1-242.3 1377 1566 13.25% 8.20% 78.55%-1.77 -4.4 14
1895-05-11 St. Mirren L 0-240.6 1303 1353 53.87% 8.25% 37.88%+0.11 -33.1 14
1895-05-11 @ Clyde W 2-040.6 1353 1303 37.88% 8.25% 53.87%-0.11 +33.1 19
1895-05-11 St. Bernards W 4-030.2 1436 1408 63.86% 8.24% 27.90%+0.66 +34.0 21
1895-05-11 @ Third Lanark L 0-430.2 1408 1436 27.90% 8.24% 63.86%-0.66 -34.0 17
1895-05-18 Dundee W 2-037.8 1270 1372 46.47% 8.25% 45.28%-0.25 +28.1 16
1895-05-18 @ Clyde L 0-237.8 1372 1270 45.28% 8.25% 46.47%+0.25 -28.1 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1894-12-01 5.89% Clyde 1298 4 @ Heart of Midlothian 1642 2
2 1894-09-22 10.15% Clyde 1220 3 @ St. Bernards 1462 0
3 1895-02-16 15.36% Third Lanark 1393 1 @ Rangers 1552 0
4 1895-04-27 16.95% Dundee 1337 3 @ Third Lanark 1476 1
5 1895-03-23 17.14% @ Clyde 1296 3 Heart of Midlothian 1646 2
6 1894-12-01 20.02% @ Dumbarton 1239 1 Rangers 1557 0
7 1894-10-20 20.37% Third Lanark 1318 4 @ St. Bernards 1418 2
8 1894-11-03 27.05% Third Lanark 1352 2 @ Dundee 1387 1
9 1895-03-23 28.24% St. Bernards 1426 1 @ St. Mirren 1451 0
10 1895-03-30 28.40% @ Dumbarton 1193 4 St. Mirren 1431 1
11 1895-01-26 29.88% @ Dundee 1345 2 Rangers 1571 1
12 1894-10-20 31.64% Heart of Midlothian 1568 1 @ Rangers 1566 0
13 1894-08-18 31.75% St. Mirren 1401 2 @ Leith Athletic 1398 1
14 1894-11-03 32.89% Clyde 1280 3 @ Dumbarton 1268 2
15 1894-11-03 33.29% Heart of Midlothian 1592 2 @ Celtic 1576 0
16 1894-08-25 37.77% @ Clyde 1215 5 Leith Athletic 1380 2
17 1895-05-11 37.88% St. Mirren 1353 2 @ Clyde 1303 0
18 1894-08-25 38.48% Rangers 1501 4 @ St. Bernards 1446 1
19 1894-09-08 39.53% Heart of Midlothian 1470 3 @ Third Lanark 1408 0
20 1894-10-13 39.71% Dundee 1376 4 @ Dumbarton 1313 2
21 1894-10-13 40.14% St. Bernards 1386 2 @ Leith Athletic 1320 0
22 1895-03-16 40.68% St. Mirren 1435 1 @ Dundee 1364 0
23 1894-09-15 41.22% St. Bernards 1436 4 @ Dumbarton 1362 3
24 1894-09-08 41.23% Celtic 1485 3 @ St. Mirren 1411 0
25 1895-03-09 43.30% @ St. Mirren 1411 4 Rangers 1536 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1894-09-22 72.88 Clyde 3 1220 10.15% @ St. Bernards 0 1462 81.68% 8.17%
2 1895-03-30 47.43 @ Dumbarton 4 1193 28.40% St. Mirren 1 1431 63.37% 8.23%
3 1894-09-08 46.64 Heart of Midlothian 3 1470 39.53% @ Third Lanark 0 1408 52.22% 8.25%
4 1894-09-08 45.21 Celtic 3 1485 41.23% @ St. Mirren 0 1411 50.52% 8.25%
5 1894-12-01 41.04 Clyde 4 1298 5.89% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1642 86.00% 8.12%
6 1894-08-25 40.08 Rangers 4 1501 38.48% @ St. Bernards 1 1446 53.27% 8.25%
7 1895-04-27 39.67 Dundee 3 1337 16.95% @ Third Lanark 1 1476 74.83% 8.21%
8 1894-09-15 37.72 @ St. Mirren 5 1365 53.87% Dundee 1 1416 37.88% 8.25%
9 1894-11-03 35.79 Heart of Midlothian 2 1592 33.29% @ Celtic 0 1576 58.46% 8.25%
10 1894-08-25 35.16 @ Clyde 5 1215 37.77% Leith Athletic 2 1380 53.99% 8.24%
11 1895-05-11 33.97 @ Third Lanark 4 1436 63.86% St. Bernards 0 1408 27.90% 8.24%
12 1894-12-08 33.84 Rangers 5 1533 58.03% @ Clyde 1 1339 33.73% 8.24%
13 1894-10-20 33.82 Third Lanark 4 1318 20.37% @ St. Bernards 2 1418 71.41% 8.23%
14 1895-05-11 33.08 St. Mirren 2 1353 37.88% @ Clyde 0 1303 53.87% 8.25%
15 1895-04-06 31.78 Heart of Midlothian 3 1635 57.23% @ St. Bernards 0 1446 34.53% 8.24%
16 1894-10-13 31.76 St. Bernards 2 1386 40.14% @ Leith Athletic 0 1320 51.61% 8.25%
17 1895-02-16 30.85 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1615 66.57% Celtic 0 1563 25.20% 8.24%
18 1895-04-04 30.67 @ Third Lanark 4 1437 66.72% St. Mirren 0 1383 25.04% 8.24%
19 1894-09-08 29.97 St. Bernards 4 1406 52.81% @ Clyde 1 1250 38.95% 8.24%
20 1894-09-08 29.63 @ Dundee 3 1386 59.70% Dumbarton 0 1392 32.05% 8.25%
21 1894-12-22 29.11 @ Third Lanark 7 1364 72.31% Leith Athletic 1 1254 19.46% 8.22%
22 1895-05-18 28.13 @ Clyde 2 1270 46.47% Dundee 0 1372 45.28% 8.25%
23 1894-09-29 27.29 Heart of Midlothian 4 1524 56.55% @ Dumbarton 1 1340 35.21% 8.24%
24 1894-12-22 26.24 @ St. Bernards 5 1400 74.68% Dumbarton 0 1262 17.11% 8.22%
25 1894-11-10 26.17 Celtic 2 1540 49.90% @ St. Bernards 0 1405 41.86% 8.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1895-02-23 77.4 @ Celtic 4 1532 72.73% Third Lanark 4 1418 19.05% 8.22%
2 1895-01-19 71.0 @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1619 66.48% Rangers 0 1567 25.28% 8.24%
3 1894-12-22 70.8 @ Celtic 2 1567 76.39% St. Mirren 2 1408 15.40% 8.21%
4 1895-03-23 70.1 @ Rangers 1 1513 55.36% Celtic 1 1552 36.39% 8.25%
5 1895-03-23 65.0 @ Clyde 3 1296 17.14% Heart of Midlothian 2 1646 74.67% 8.19%
6 1894-12-01 64.9 Clyde 4 1298 5.89% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1642 86.00% 8.12%
7 1894-09-29 64.7 @ Dundee 2 1378 59.01% St. Bernards 2 1389 32.75% 8.25%
8 1894-08-11 62.8 @ Dundee 1 1379 46.87% Celtic 1 1479 44.89% 8.25%
9 1894-10-20 59.7 Heart of Midlothian 1 1568 31.64% @ Rangers 0 1566 60.11% 8.25%
10 1895-04-06 58.1 @ Leith Athletic 1 1223 58.18% Dumbarton 1 1240 33.57% 8.25%
11 1894-09-22 58.0 @ Celtic 5 1530 57.13% Rangers 3 1556 34.62% 8.25%
12 1895-02-16 57.9 Third Lanark 1 1393 15.36% @ Rangers 0 1552 76.43% 8.21%
13 1894-09-15 57.4 St. Bernards 4 1436 41.22% @ Dumbarton 3 1362 50.53% 8.25%
14 1894-11-03 56.1 Heart of Midlothian 2 1592 33.29% @ Celtic 0 1576 58.46% 8.25%
15 1895-01-26 55.9 @ Dundee 2 1345 29.88% Rangers 1 1571 61.89% 8.23%
16 1894-10-20 55.2 Third Lanark 4 1318 20.37% @ St. Bernards 2 1418 71.41% 8.23%
17 1894-09-08 54.0 Rangers 4 1547 59.97% @ Leith Athletic 3 1336 31.79% 8.23%
18 1895-03-09 53.9 @ St. Mirren 4 1411 43.30% Rangers 2 1536 48.46% 8.25%
19 1895-04-27 53.4 Dundee 3 1337 16.95% @ Third Lanark 1 1476 74.83% 8.21%
20 1894-11-03 53.1 Clyde 3 1280 32.89% @ Dumbarton 2 1268 58.87% 8.25%
21 1894-11-03 52.3 Third Lanark 2 1352 27.05% @ Dundee 1 1387 64.71% 8.24%
22 1894-08-18 52.1 St. Mirren 2 1401 31.75% @ Leith Athletic 1 1398 60.01% 8.25%
23 1894-09-29 52.1 @ Rangers 4 1540 74.01% St. Mirren 3 1411 17.77% 8.22%
24 1894-12-01 52.1 @ Dumbarton 1 1239 20.02% Rangers 0 1557 71.78% 8.20%
25 1895-03-23 51.7 St. Bernards 1 1426 28.24% @ St. Mirren 0 1451 63.52% 8.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1895-03-16 22.5 @ Celtic 4 1543 84.61% Leith Athletic 0 1237 7.25% 8.14%
2 1894-12-22 23.3 @ St. Bernards 5 1400 74.68% Dumbarton 0 1262 17.11% 8.22%
3 1894-10-20 24.8 @ Celtic 6 1560 83.18% Dumbarton 0 1288 8.66% 8.16%
4 1894-12-22 27.5 @ Third Lanark 7 1364 72.31% Leith Athletic 1 1254 19.46% 8.22%
5 1895-03-30 28.6 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1624 83.40% Dundee 0 1348 8.45% 8.16%
6 1895-04-04 28.8 @ Third Lanark 4 1437 66.72% St. Mirren 0 1383 25.04% 8.24%
7 1894-11-03 29.2 @ Rangers 5 1546 81.84% Leith Athletic 1 1302 9.99% 8.17%
8 1894-08-18 29.4 @ Dundee 4 1379 75.75% Clyde 1 1228 16.03% 8.21%
9 1895-05-11 30.2 @ Third Lanark 4 1436 63.86% St. Bernards 0 1408 27.90% 8.24%
10 1894-12-01 31.1 @ Dundee 4 1368 71.16% Leith Athletic 1 1270 20.62% 8.23%
11 1895-04-27 31.3 @ Celtic 2 1559 82.14% Clyde 0 1309 9.70% 8.17%
12 1895-02-22 31.4 @ Rangers 4 1527 80.62% Clyde 1 1305 11.20% 8.18%
13 1895-03-09 31.8 Celtic 2 1530 71.13% @ Dumbarton 0 1219 20.67% 8.20%
14 1894-08-18 32.1 @ Rangers 3 1479 68.87% Dumbarton 0 1405 22.90% 8.23%
15 1894-09-08 32.1 @ Dundee 3 1386 59.70% Dumbarton 0 1392 32.05% 8.25%
16 1894-10-27 34.2 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1588 85.00% Dumbarton 1 1272 6.87% 8.13%
17 1895-03-16 34.2 @ Clyde 3 1283 69.20% Dumbarton 1 1205 22.57% 8.23%
18 1894-12-01 35.3 @ St. Mirren 2 1388 61.03% Third Lanark 0 1383 30.72% 8.24%
19 1894-12-08 35.5 @ St. Bernards 2 1379 59.82% Dundee 0 1384 31.94% 8.25%
20 1894-09-15 35.7 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1516 78.55% Leith Athletic 1 1327 13.26% 8.20%
21 1894-11-17 35.8 Heart of Midlothian 4 1627 74.04% @ Leith Athletic 1 1284 17.77% 8.19%
22 1894-09-15 36.0 @ St. Mirren 5 1365 53.87% Dundee 1 1416 37.88% 8.25%
23 1894-11-03 36.5 @ St. Bernards 2 1384 58.00% St. Mirren 0 1403 33.75% 8.25%
24 1894-11-10 36.6 @ Third Lanark 6 1371 73.25% Dumbarton 3 1251 18.53% 8.22%
25 1894-09-08 36.8 St. Bernards 4 1406 52.81% @ Clyde 1 1250 38.95% 8.24%