1895-96 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Celtic

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

8.71 points above expected

30 points · 21.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dumbarton

5.57 points below expected

8 points · 13.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Celtic	18	15	0	3	30	64	25	+39	21.3	+8.71
2	Rangers	18	11	4	3	26	57	39	+18	20.5	+5.52
3	Hibernian	18	11	2	5	24	58	39	+19	21.7	+2.29
4	Heart of Midlothian	18	11	0	7	22	68	36	+32	22.3	-0.30
5	Dundee	18	7	2	9	16	33	42	-9	16.7	-0.71
6	Third Lanark	18	7	1	10	15	47	51	-4	17.9	-2.88
7	St. Bernards	18	7	1	10	15	36	53	-17	16.9	-1.87
8	St. Mirren	18	5	3	10	13	31	51	-20	15.3	-2.27
9	Clyde	18	4	3	11	11	39	59	-20	13.9	-2.92
10	Dumbarton	18	4	0	14	8	36	74	-38	13.6	-5.57

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Celtic	1631	30	21.29	+8.71	99.4%	7	15	19	21	24	27	36
Heart of Midlothian	1602	22	22.30	-0.30	51.7%	8	16	20	22	25	28	35
Rangers	1580	26	20.48	+5.52	94.2%	4	14	18	21	23	27	33
Hibernian	1571	24	21.71	+2.29	76.6%	6	15	19	22	24	28	34
Third Lanark	1483	15	17.88	-2.88	26.7%	4	12	15	18	20	24	33
Dundee	1465	16	16.71	-0.71	48.1%	2	10	14	17	19	23	30
St. Bernards	1442	15	16.87	-1.87	36.3%	4	11	14	17	19	23	32
St. Mirren	1442	13	15.27	-2.27	31.9%	2	9	13	15	18	22	30
Clyde	1408	11	13.92	-2.92	26.9%	1	8	11	14	17	20	29
Dumbarton	1372	8	13.57	-5.57	8.4%	1	8	11	14	16	20	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUM	DUN	HOM	HIB	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 3.79	2-0-0 4.06	2-0-0 3.34	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 3.18	1-0-1 3.58	2-0-0 3.88	2-0-0 3.71
Clyde	0-0-2 2.00	—	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 1.80	0-0-2 1.76	0-2-0 1.72	2-0-0 2.37	0-1-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.29
Dumbarton	0-0-2 1.73	1-0-1 2.93	—	0-0-2 2.43	0-0-2 1.51	0-0-2 1.71	0-0-2 1.87	1-0-1 2.40	2-0-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.19
Dundee	0-0-2 2.44	1-0-1 3.38	2-0-0 3.36	—	1-0-1 1.89	0-1-1 2.20	0-0-2 2.18	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 3.12	2-0-0 2.77
Heart of Midlothian	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.99	2-0-0 4.28	1-0-1 3.90	—	1-0-1 3.16	0-0-2 3.17	2-0-0 3.63	1-0-1 3.78	1-0-1 3.58
Hibernian	1-0-1 3.09	2-0-0 4.03	2-0-0 4.07	1-1-0 3.59	1-0-1 2.63	—	0-1-1 3.22	1-0-1 3.80	2-0-0 3.75	1-0-1 3.39
Rangers	0-0-2 2.60	0-2-0 4.07	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 3.61	2-0-0 2.61	1-1-0 2.57	—	2-0-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.66	1-0-1 3.38
St. Bernards	1-0-1 2.20	0-0-2 3.42	1-0-1 3.39	1-0-1 2.96	0-0-2 2.15	1-0-1 1.99	0-0-2 2.58	—	2-0-0 3.03	1-1-0 2.66
St. Mirren	0-0-2 1.90	1-1-0 3.02	0-0-2 3.13	1-1-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.04	0-1-1 2.13	0-0-2 2.75	—	2-0-0 2.35
Third Lanark	0-0-2 2.08	2-0-0 3.49	2-0-0 3.59	0-0-2 3.01	1-0-1 2.20	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.40	0-1-1 3.12	0-0-2 3.44	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	0.56%	2.22%	2.78%	1.67%	4.44%	12.78%
1	0.56%	2.22%	5.00%	6.11%	2.78%	3.33%	20.00%
2	2.22%	5.00%	3.33%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	21.67%
3	2.78%	6.11%	2.78%	1.11%	3.89%	0.56%	17.22%
4	1.67%	2.78%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	1.11%	13.33%
5+	4.44%	3.33%	5.56%	0.56%	1.11%	—	15.00%
Total	12.78%	20.00%	21.67%	17.22%	13.33%	15.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	2.00
StdDev allowed	2.00
Mean total goals/game	5.21
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.344
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.56
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	2.57
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	4.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.546
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	3.28
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	2.40
Mean total goals/game	5.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.235
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
Total	—	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	33.33%	100%

Dumbarton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	4.11
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	2.00
Mean total goals/game	6.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.129
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	44.44%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	2.47
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.422
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.78
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	2.71
StdDev allowed	2.11
Mean total goals/game	5.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.431
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.22
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.90
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	5.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.280
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.17
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.82
StdDev allowed	1.62
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.170
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
2	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	2.94
StdDev scored	1.61
StdDev allowed	1.80
Mean total goals/game	4.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.346
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	16.67%	44.44%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.83
StdDev scored	0.96
StdDev allowed	1.79
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.406
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	—	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	11.11%	—	44.44%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	2.83
StdDev scored	2.33
StdDev allowed	1.89
Mean total goals/game	5.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.203
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Celtic	30	21.3	+8.71
2	Rangers	26	20.5	+5.52
3	Hibernian	24	21.7	+2.29
4	Heart of Midlothian	22	22.3	-0.30
5	Dundee	16	16.7	-0.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Dumbarton	8	13.6	-5.57
2	Clyde	11	13.9	-2.92
3	Third Lanark	15	17.9	-2.88
4	St. Mirren	13	15.3	-2.27
5	St. Bernards	15	16.9	-1.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	11	Sep 28 – Feb 29	1 in 620
2	Heart of Midlothian	5	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 26
3	Third Lanark	3	Nov 30 – Dec 14	1 in 21
4	Rangers	3	Sep 14 – Oct 12	1 in 10
5	St. Mirren	2	Mar 7 – Apr 4	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Bernards	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 67
2	Hibernian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 36
3	Dumbarton	7	Nov 9 – Feb 15	1 in 32
4	St. Mirren	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 25
5	Clyde	5	Aug 17 – Sep 14	1 in 17

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	11	Sep 28 – Feb 29	1 in 86
2	Rangers	8	Sep 14 – Dec 7	1 in 76
3	St. Mirren	4	Dec 7 – Apr 4	1 in 24
4	Dundee	5	Aug 24 – Sep 21	1 in 17
5	Hibernian	6	Aug 17 – Sep 21	1 in 12

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Bernards	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 20
2	Hibernian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 14
3	St. Mirren	5	Aug 24 – Sep 21	1 in 12
4	Dumbarton	7	Nov 9 – Feb 15	1 in 10
5	Heart of Midlothian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Celtic	22.86%	19.66%	16.61%	13.71%	9.75%	7.14%	5.06%	2.93%	1.67%	0.61%
Rangers	14.27%	16.81%	17.39%	15.48%	12.28%	9.04%	6.66%	4.41%	2.60%	1.06%
Hibernian	22.18%	20.74%	17.86%	13.75%	9.70%	6.63%	4.51%	2.66%	1.38%	0.59%
Heart of Midlothian	30.59%	22.16%	16.05%	11.76%	7.78%	5.28%	3.11%	1.78%	1.14%	0.35%
Dundee	2.28%	4.60%	7.25%	9.24%	13.36%	14.43%	15.43%	13.64%	11.41%	8.36%
Third Lanark	4.05%	7.08%	10.03%	13.50%	15.05%	14.47%	13.10%	10.64%	7.69%	4.39%
St. Bernards	2.37%	4.55%	7.11%	9.85%	12.32%	14.43%	14.97%	14.14%	11.96%	8.30%
St. Mirren	0.68%	2.32%	3.72%	5.89%	9.08%	11.77%	14.59%	18.12%	17.70%	16.13%
Clyde	0.47%	1.24%	2.31%	3.82%	5.95%	8.89%	12.01%	16.47%	21.96%	26.88%
Dumbarton	0.25%	0.84%	1.67%	3.00%	4.73%	7.92%	10.56%	15.21%	22.49%	33.33%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Heart of Midlothian	99.7%	0.4%
Hibernian	99.4%	0.6%
Celtic	99.4%	0.6%
Rangers	98.9%	1.1%
Third Lanark	95.6%	4.4%
St. Bernards	91.7%	8.3%
Dundee	91.6%	8.4%
St. Mirren	83.9%	16.1%
Clyde	73.1%	26.9%
Dumbarton	66.7%	33.3%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1895-08-10	Celtic	L 1-2	1476	1542	43.4%	10.9%	45.7%	-4.0	0
1895-08-10	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1542	1476	45.7%	10.9%	43.4%	+4.0	3
1895-08-17	Clyde	W 3-0	1546	1433	66.3%	10.7%	23.0%	+6.5	6
1895-08-17	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1433	1546	23.0%	10.7%	66.3%	-6.5	0
1895-08-17	Rangers	L 3-5	1438	1533	39.3%	10.9%	49.8%	-5.4	0
1895-08-17	@ Dumbarton	W 5-3	1533	1438	49.8%	10.9%	39.3%	+5.3	3
1895-08-17	Dundee	W 4-2	1491	1472	55.3%	10.9%	33.9%	+4.9	3
1895-08-17	@ St. Bernards	L 2-4	1472	1491	33.9%	10.9%	55.3%	-5.0	0
1895-08-17	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1481	1558	41.8%	10.9%	47.3%	+4.3	3
1895-08-17	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1558	1481	47.3%	10.9%	41.8%	-4.3	0
1895-08-17	Hibernian	L 2-7	1499	1545	46.2%	10.9%	42.9%	-13.7	0
1895-08-17	@ Third Lanark	W 7-2	1545	1499	42.9%	10.9%	46.2%	+13.7	3
1895-08-24	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1427	1554	35.0%	10.8%	54.1%	-3.3	0
1895-08-24	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1554	1427	54.1%	10.8%	35.0%	+3.3	3
1895-08-24	Dumbarton	W 4-1	1467	1432	57.2%	10.8%	31.9%	+7.4	3
1895-08-24	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1432	1467	31.9%	10.8%	57.2%	-7.4	0
1895-08-24	Celtic	W 4-2	1559	1552	53.6%	10.9%	35.6%	+5.2	6
1895-08-24	@ Hibernian	L 2-4	1552	1559	35.6%	10.9%	53.6%	-5.2	6
1895-08-24	Third Lanark	L 0-4	1538	1485	59.6%	10.8%	29.6%	-20.4	3
1895-08-24	@ Rangers	W 4-0	1485	1538	29.6%	10.8%	59.6%	+20.4	3
1895-08-24	St. Bernards	L 1-3	1485	1496	51.2%	10.9%	37.9%	-8.0	3
1895-08-24	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1496	1485	37.9%	10.9%	51.2%	+8.0	6
1895-08-31	St. Mirren	W 4-0	1547	1477	61.6%	10.8%	27.6%	+10.0	9
1895-08-31	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1477	1547	27.6%	10.8%	61.6%	-10.0	3
1895-08-31	Clyde	W 5-4	1425	1424	52.9%	10.9%	36.2%	+3.1	3
1895-08-31	@ Dumbarton	L 4-5	1424	1425	36.2%	10.9%	52.9%	-3.1	0
1895-08-31	Hibernian	D 2-2	1474	1564	40.1%	10.9%	49.1%	+0.2	4
1895-08-31	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1564	1474	49.1%	10.9%	40.1%	-0.1	7
1895-08-31	Rangers	L 1-2	1557	1518	57.8%	10.8%	31.3%	-5.2	3
1895-08-31	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1518	1557	31.3%	10.8%	57.8%	+5.2	6
1895-08-31	St. Bernards	D 0-0	1505	1504	52.8%	10.9%	36.3%	-0.4	4
1895-08-31	@ Third Lanark	D 0-0	1504	1505	36.3%	10.9%	52.8%	+0.4	7
1895-09-07	Dundee	L 0-1	1421	1474	45.2%	10.9%	43.9%	-4.4	0
1895-09-07	@ Clyde	W 1-0	1474	1421	43.9%	10.9%	45.2%	+4.4	7
1895-09-07	Third Lanark	W 3-0	1552	1505	58.8%	10.8%	30.4%	+8.4	6
1895-09-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1505	1552	30.4%	10.8%	58.8%	-8.4	4
1895-09-07	Celtic	L 2-4	1523	1557	48.0%	10.9%	41.1%	-6.8	6
1895-09-07	@ Rangers	W 4-2	1557	1523	41.1%	10.9%	48.0%	+6.8	12
1895-09-07	Dumbarton	W 4-3	1505	1428	62.3%	10.8%	26.9%	+2.4	10
1895-09-07	@ St. Bernards	L 3-4	1428	1505	26.9%	10.8%	62.3%	-2.4	3
1895-09-07	Hibernian	L 1-3	1467	1564	39.1%	10.9%	50.1%	-6.3	3
1895-09-07	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1564	1467	50.1%	10.9%	39.1%	+6.3	10
1895-09-14	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1564	1560	53.2%	10.9%	35.9%	-22.5	12
1895-09-14	@ Celtic	W 5-0	1560	1564	35.9%	10.9%	53.2%	+22.5	9
1895-09-14	St. Mirren	W 4-2	1426	1461	47.9%	10.9%	41.2%	+5.9	6
1895-09-14	@ Dumbarton	L 2-4	1461	1426	41.2%	10.9%	47.9%	-5.9	3
1895-09-14	Clyde	W 4-3	1570	1416	70.4%	10.5%	19.1%	+1.7	13
1895-09-14	@ Hibernian	L 3-4	1416	1570	19.1%	10.5%	70.4%	-1.7	0
1895-09-14	Rangers	L 3-4	1507	1516	51.4%	10.9%	37.7%	-4.3	10
1895-09-14	@ St. Bernards	W 4-3	1516	1507	37.7%	10.9%	51.4%	+4.3	9
1895-09-14	Dundee	L 3-4	1496	1479	55.0%	10.9%	34.1%	-4.6	4
1895-09-14	@ Third Lanark	W 4-3	1479	1496	34.1%	10.9%	55.0%	+4.6	10
1895-09-16	Celtic	W 3-0	1503	1542	47.3%	10.9%	41.8%	+11.2	13
1895-09-16	@ St. Bernards	L 0-3	1542	1503	41.8%	10.9%	47.3%	-11.2	12
1895-09-21	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1483	1455	56.5%	10.8%	32.7%	-0.6	11
1895-09-21	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1455	1483	32.7%	10.8%	56.5%	+0.5	4
1895-09-21	Dumbarton	W 7-2	1572	1432	69.1%	10.6%	20.3%	+6.4	16
1895-09-21	@ Hibernian	L 2-7	1432	1572	20.3%	10.6%	69.1%	-6.4	6
1895-09-21	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1514	1583	43.0%	10.9%	46.1%	-18.5	13
1895-09-21	@ St. Bernards	W 5-0	1583	1514	46.1%	10.9%	43.0%	+18.5	12
1895-09-28	St. Bernards	W 5-0	1414	1495	41.3%	10.9%	47.8%	+20.4	3
1895-09-28	@ Clyde	L 0-5	1495	1414	47.8%	10.9%	41.3%	-20.4	13
1895-09-28	Celtic	L 2-3	1425	1530	38.0%	10.8%	51.2%	-3.4	6
1895-09-28	@ Dumbarton	W 3-2	1530	1425	51.2%	10.8%	38.0%	+3.4	15
1895-09-28	Hibernian	W 4-3	1601	1578	55.8%	10.9%	33.4%	+2.9	15
1895-09-28	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-4	1578	1601	33.4%	10.9%	55.8%	-2.9	16
1895-09-28	Dundee	W 3-1	1455	1483	48.9%	10.9%	40.2%	+6.5	7
1895-09-28	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1483	1455	40.2%	10.9%	48.9%	-6.5	11
1895-10-05	Hibernian	W 3-1	1534	1575	46.9%	10.9%	42.2%	+6.8	18
1895-10-05	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1575	1534	42.2%	10.9%	46.9%	-6.8	16
1895-10-05	St. Bernards	W 4-1	1476	1475	52.9%	10.9%	36.2%	+8.3	14
1895-10-05	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1475	1476	36.2%	10.9%	52.9%	-8.3	13
1895-10-05	Clyde	W 9-1	1604	1435	71.8%	10.5%	17.8%	+10.4	18
1895-10-05	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-9	1435	1604	17.8%	10.5%	71.8%	-10.4	3
1895-10-05	Rangers	L 1-7	1462	1521	44.5%	10.9%	44.7%	-18.7	7
1895-10-05	@ St. Mirren	W 7-1	1521	1462	44.7%	10.9%	44.5%	+18.7	12
1895-10-05	Dumbarton	W 5-2	1492	1422	61.6%	10.8%	27.7%	+5.6	7
1895-10-05	@ Third Lanark	L 2-5	1422	1492	27.7%	10.8%	61.6%	-5.6	6
1895-10-12	Celtic	L 1-5	1424	1540	36.5%	10.8%	52.7%	-10.8	3
1895-10-12	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1540	1424	52.7%	10.8%	36.5%	+10.8	21
1895-10-12	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-0	1485	1615	34.6%	10.8%	54.6%	+23.0	17
1895-10-12	@ Dundee	L 0-5	1615	1485	54.6%	10.8%	34.6%	-23.0	18
1895-10-12	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1569	1443	67.7%	10.6%	21.7%	+6.7	19
1895-10-12	@ Hibernian	L 1-5	1443	1569	21.7%	10.6%	67.7%	-6.7	7
1895-10-12	St. Bernards	W 2-0	1539	1467	61.9%	10.8%	27.3%	+5.2	15
1895-10-12	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1467	1539	27.3%	10.8%	61.9%	-5.2	13
1895-10-19	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-9	1416	1592	28.9%	10.7%	60.3%	-12.0	6
1895-10-19	@ Dumbarton	W 9-2	1592	1416	60.3%	10.7%	28.9%	+12.0	21
1895-10-19	Hibernian	L 2-5	1461	1575	36.8%	10.8%	52.4%	-7.3	13
1895-10-19	@ St. Bernards	W 5-2	1575	1461	52.4%	10.8%	36.8%	+7.3	22
1895-10-26	Dundee	W 11-0	1551	1508	58.4%	10.8%	30.8%	+29.0	24
1895-10-26	@ Celtic	L 0-11	1508	1551	30.8%	10.8%	58.4%	-29.0	17
1895-10-26	St. Bernards	W 4-3	1404	1454	45.8%	10.9%	43.4%	+3.7	9
1895-10-26	@ Dumbarton	L 3-4	1454	1404	43.4%	10.9%	45.8%	-3.7	13
1895-10-26	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1604	1436	71.6%	10.5%	17.9%	+5.5	24
1895-10-26	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1436	1604	17.9%	10.5%	71.6%	-5.6	7
1895-10-26	Rangers	D 1-1	1583	1545	57.7%	10.8%	31.5%	-0.6	23
1895-10-26	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1545	1583	31.5%	10.8%	57.7%	+0.6	16
1895-10-26	Clyde	W 6-2	1497	1414	63.2%	10.7%	26.1%	+6.7	10
1895-10-26	@ Third Lanark	L 2-6	1414	1497	26.1%	10.7%	63.2%	-6.7	3
1895-11-02	Dundee	W 2-0	1609	1479	68.2%	10.6%	21.2%	+4.1	27
1895-11-02	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1479	1609	21.2%	10.6%	68.2%	-4.1	17
1895-11-02	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1431	1408	55.7%	10.9%	33.4%	-5.0	7
1895-11-02	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1408	1431	33.4%	10.9%	55.7%	+5.0	12
1895-11-09	Third Lanark	W 7-0	1580	1504	62.3%	10.8%	26.9%	+16.6	27
1895-11-09	@ Celtic	L 0-7	1504	1580	26.9%	10.8%	62.3%	-16.6	10
1895-11-09	Hibernian	L 1-3	1413	1582	29.7%	10.7%	59.6%	-4.9	12
1895-11-09	@ Dumbarton	W 3-1	1582	1413	59.6%	10.7%	29.7%	+4.9	26
1895-11-09	Clyde	D 4-4	1545	1407	68.9%	10.6%	20.5%	-0.6	17
1895-11-09	@ Rangers	D 4-4	1407	1545	20.5%	10.6%	68.9%	+0.6	4
1895-11-09	St. Mirren	W 4-3	1450	1426	56.0%	10.8%	33.2%	+2.9	16
1895-11-09	@ St. Bernards	L 3-4	1426	1450	33.2%	10.8%	56.0%	-2.9	7
1895-11-23	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1407	1423	50.6%	10.9%	38.5%	-8.0	4
1895-11-23	@ Clyde	W 3-1	1423	1407	38.5%	10.9%	50.6%	+8.0	10
1895-11-23	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1475	1487	50.9%	10.9%	38.2%	+7.1	20
1895-11-23	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1487	1475	38.2%	10.9%	50.9%	-7.1	10
1895-11-23	Celtic	L 1-4	1613	1597	54.9%	10.9%	34.2%	-12.1	27
1895-11-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-1	1597	1613	34.2%	10.9%	54.9%	+12.1	30
1895-11-23	Hibernian	W 4-0	1545	1587	46.8%	10.9%	42.3%	+14.8	20
1895-11-23	@ Rangers	L 0-4	1587	1545	42.3%	10.9%	46.8%	-14.8	26
1895-11-30	Rangers	L 1-3	1482	1559	41.8%	10.9%	47.4%	-6.7	20
1895-11-30	@ Dundee	W 3-1	1559	1482	47.4%	10.9%	41.8%	+6.7	23
1895-11-30	St. Bernards	L 2-3	1572	1453	67.0%	10.6%	22.4%	-5.7	26
1895-11-30	@ Hibernian	W 3-2	1453	1572	22.4%	10.6%	67.0%	+5.7	19
1895-11-30	Celtic	L 1-3	1431	1609	28.6%	10.7%	60.7%	-4.7	10
1895-11-30	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1609	1431	60.7%	10.7%	28.6%	+4.7	33
1895-11-30	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-4	1480	1601	35.8%	10.8%	53.3%	+4.4	13
1895-11-30	@ Third Lanark	L 4-5	1601	1480	53.3%	10.8%	35.8%	-4.4	27
1895-11-30	Dumbarton	W 5-1	1400	1408	51.5%	10.9%	37.6%	+11.1	7
1895-11-30	@ Clyde	L 1-5	1408	1400	37.6%	10.9%	51.5%	-11.1	12
1895-12-07	St. Bernards	W 2-1	1614	1459	70.5%	10.5%	19.0%	+1.9	36
1895-12-07	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1459	1614	19.0%	10.5%	70.5%	-1.9	19
1895-12-07	Dundee	L 1-2	1397	1475	41.7%	10.9%	47.4%	-3.9	12
1895-12-07	@ Dumbarton	W 2-1	1475	1397	47.4%	10.9%	41.7%	+3.9	23
1895-12-07	Third Lanark	L 2-5	1566	1485	62.9%	10.8%	26.3%	-12.0	26
1895-12-07	@ Hibernian	W 5-2	1485	1566	26.3%	10.8%	62.9%	+12.0	16
1895-12-07	Heart of Midlothian	W 7-2	1566	1597	48.5%	10.9%	40.6%	+12.2	26
1895-12-07	@ Rangers	L 2-7	1597	1566	40.6%	10.9%	48.5%	-12.2	27
1895-12-07	Clyde	D 2-2	1426	1411	54.8%	10.9%	34.4%	-0.4	11
1895-12-07	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1411	1426	34.4%	10.9%	54.8%	+0.4	8
1895-12-14	Rangers	W 6-2	1616	1578	57.6%	10.8%	31.6%	+8.0	39
1895-12-14	@ Celtic	L 2-6	1578	1616	31.6%	10.8%	57.6%	-8.0	26
1895-12-14	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1393	1497	38.2%	10.8%	51.0%	-5.5	12
1895-12-14	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1497	1393	51.0%	10.8%	38.2%	+5.5	19
1895-12-14	Clyde	L 1-2	1479	1411	61.3%	10.8%	27.9%	-5.5	23
1895-12-14	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1411	1479	27.9%	10.8%	61.3%	+5.5	11
1895-12-14	St. Bernards	W 6-0	1585	1457	67.9%	10.6%	21.5%	+11.6	30
1895-12-14	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-6	1457	1585	21.5%	10.6%	67.9%	-11.6	19
1895-12-21	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1624	1388	77.0%	10.2%	12.9%	+3.7	42
1895-12-21	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1388	1624	12.9%	10.2%	77.0%	-3.7	12
1895-12-21	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1554	1596	46.9%	10.9%	42.2%	+3.7	29
1895-12-21	@ Hibernian	L 2-3	1596	1554	42.2%	10.9%	46.9%	-3.7	30
1895-12-21	Rangers	L 2-3	1502	1570	43.1%	10.9%	46.0%	-3.8	19
1895-12-21	@ Third Lanark	W 3-2	1570	1502	46.0%	10.9%	43.1%	+3.8	29
1896-01-04	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1574	1384	73.5%	10.4%	16.1%	+2.7	32
1896-01-04	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1384	1574	16.1%	10.4%	73.5%	-2.7	12
1896-01-18	Dundee	W 3-1	1558	1473	63.3%	10.7%	26.0%	+4.3	32
1896-01-18	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1473	1558	26.0%	10.7%	63.3%	-4.3	23
1896-02-01	Hibernian	L 0-3	1416	1562	32.6%	10.8%	56.7%	-9.0	11
1896-02-01	@ Clyde	W 3-0	1562	1416	56.7%	10.8%	32.6%	+9.0	35
1896-02-01	Third Lanark	W 4-1	1445	1498	45.3%	10.9%	43.8%	+9.9	22
1896-02-01	@ St. Bernards	L 1-4	1498	1445	43.8%	10.9%	45.3%	-9.9	19
1896-02-08	Rangers	D 2-2	1408	1577	29.7%	10.7%	59.6%	+0.5	12
1896-02-08	@ Clyde	D 2-2	1577	1408	59.6%	10.7%	29.7%	-0.5	33
1896-02-15	Dumbarton	W 7-0	1592	1381	75.2%	10.3%	14.5%	+9.2	33
1896-02-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-7	1381	1592	14.5%	10.3%	75.2%	-9.2	12
1896-02-15	Clyde	L 1-4	1455	1408	58.9%	10.8%	30.3%	-13.0	22
1896-02-15	@ St. Bernards	W 4-1	1408	1455	30.3%	10.8%	58.9%	+13.0	15
1896-02-22	Third Lanark	L 2-7	1421	1489	43.2%	10.9%	45.9%	-12.9	15
1896-02-22	@ Clyde	W 7-2	1489	1421	45.9%	10.9%	43.2%	+12.9	22
1896-02-22	St. Mirren	D 3-3	1576	1426	70.1%	10.5%	19.4%	-0.8	34
1896-02-22	@ Rangers	D 3-3	1426	1576	19.4%	10.5%	70.1%	+0.7	12
1896-02-29	Dundee	W 3-1	1576	1469	65.7%	10.7%	23.6%	+4.0	37
1896-02-29	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1469	1576	23.6%	10.7%	65.7%	-4.0	23
1896-02-29	Celtic	L 1-2	1502	1627	35.2%	10.8%	54.0%	-3.3	22
1896-02-29	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1627	1502	54.0%	10.8%	35.2%	+3.3	45
1896-03-07	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1427	1498	42.6%	10.9%	46.5%	+4.0	15
1896-03-07	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1498	1427	46.5%	10.9%	42.6%	-4.0	22
1896-04-04	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1494	1431	60.8%	10.8%	28.4%	-11.0	22
1896-04-04	@ Third Lanark	W 2-0	1431	1494	28.4%	10.8%	60.8%	+10.9	18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1895-11-30	22.38%	St. Bernards	1453	3	@ Hibernian	1572	2
2	1895-12-07	26.31%	Third Lanark	1485	5	@ Hibernian	1566	2
3	1895-12-14	27.88%	Clyde	1411	2	@ Dundee	1479	1
4	1896-04-04	28.38%	St. Mirren	1431	2	@ Third Lanark	1494	0
5	1895-08-24	29.58%	Third Lanark	1485	4	@ Rangers	1538	0
6	1896-02-15	30.33%	Clyde	1408	4	@ St. Bernards	1455	1
7	1895-08-31	31.34%	Rangers	1518	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1557	1
8	1895-11-02	33.40%	Dumbarton	1408	2	@ St. Mirren	1431	1
9	1895-09-14	34.09%	Dundee	1479	4	@ Third Lanark	1496	3
10	1895-11-23	34.24%	Celtic	1597	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1613	1
11	1895-10-12	34.63%	@ Dundee	1485	5	Heart of Midlothian	1615	0
12	1895-11-30	35.83%	@ Third Lanark	1480	5	Heart of Midlothian	1601	4
13	1895-09-14	35.91%	Heart of Midlothian	1560	5	@ Celtic	1564	0
14	1895-09-14	37.70%	Rangers	1516	4	@ St. Bernards	1507	3
15	1895-08-24	37.91%	St. Bernards	1496	3	@ St. Mirren	1485	1
16	1895-11-23	38.52%	St. Mirren	1423	3	@ Clyde	1407	1
17	1895-09-07	41.13%	Celtic	1557	4	@ Rangers	1523	2
18	1895-09-28	41.32%	@ Clyde	1414	5	St. Bernards	1495	0
19	1895-08-17	41.82%	@ St. Mirren	1481	2	Heart of Midlothian	1558	1
20	1896-03-07	42.62%	@ St. Mirren	1427	3	Third Lanark	1498	2
21	1895-08-17	42.91%	Hibernian	1545	7	@ Third Lanark	1499	2
22	1895-09-07	43.94%	Dundee	1474	1	@ Clyde	1421	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1895-10-26	29.04	@ Celtic	11	1551	58.37%	Dundee	0	1508	30.80%
2	1895-10-12	23.05	@ Dundee	5	1485	34.63%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1615	54.56%
3	1895-09-14	22.53	Heart of Midlothian	5	1560	35.91%	@ Celtic	0	1564	53.22%
4	1895-09-28	20.40	@ Clyde	5	1414	41.32%	St. Bernards	0	1495	47.81%
5	1895-08-24	20.36	Third Lanark	4	1485	29.58%	@ Rangers	0	1538	59.61%
6	1895-10-05	18.72	Rangers	7	1521	44.66%	@ St. Mirren	1	1462	44.45%
7	1895-09-21	18.55	Heart of Midlothian	5	1583	46.10%	@ St. Bernards	0	1514	43.01%
8	1895-11-09	16.63	@ Celtic	7	1580	62.31%	Third Lanark	0	1504	26.93%
9	1895-11-23	14.83	@ Rangers	4	1545	46.82%	Hibernian	0	1587	42.29%
10	1895-08-17	13.71	Hibernian	7	1545	42.91%	@ Third Lanark	2	1499	46.20%
11	1896-02-15	12.98	Clyde	4	1408	30.33%	@ St. Bernards	1	1455	58.85%
12	1896-02-22	12.91	Third Lanark	7	1489	45.91%	@ Clyde	2	1421	43.20%
13	1895-12-07	12.22	@ Rangers	7	1566	48.47%	Heart of Midlothian	2	1597	40.64%
14	1895-11-23	12.15	Celtic	4	1597	34.24%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1	1613	54.89%
15	1895-10-19	12.01	Heart of Midlothian	9	1592	60.34%	@ Dumbarton	2	1416	28.95%
16	1895-12-07	12.00	Third Lanark	5	1485	26.31%	@ Hibernian	2	1566	62.94%
17	1895-12-14	11.63	@ Heart of Midlothian	6	1585	67.86%	St. Bernards	0	1457	21.53%
18	1895-09-16	11.23	@ St. Bernards	3	1503	47.30%	Celtic	0	1542	41.81%
19	1895-11-30	11.11	@ Clyde	5	1400	51.53%	Dumbarton	1	1408	37.58%
20	1896-04-04	10.95	St. Mirren	2	1431	28.38%	@ Third Lanark	0	1494	60.83%
21	1895-10-12	10.80	Celtic	5	1540	52.70%	@ Clyde	1	1424	36.47%
22	1895-10-05	10.44	@ Heart of Midlothian	9	1604	71.79%	Clyde	1	1435	17.75%
23	1895-08-31	10.04	@ Celtic	4	1547	61.62%	St. Mirren	0	1477	27.61%
24	1896-02-01	9.88	@ St. Bernards	4	1445	45.29%	Third Lanark	1	1498	43.82%
25	1896-02-15	9.21	@ Heart of Midlothian	7	1592	75.20%	Dumbarton	0	1381	14.53%