1896-97 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Heart of Midlothian

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

5.79 points above expected

28 points · 22.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Abercorn

10.44 points below expected

3 points · 13.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	18	13	2	3	28	47	22	+25	22.2	+5.79
2	Hibernian	18	12	2	4	26	50	20	+30	21.5	+4.53
3	Rangers	18	11	3	4	25	64	30	+34	21.5	+3.52
4	Celtic	18	10	4	4	24	42	18	+24	22.7	+1.28
5	Dundee	18	10	2	6	22	38	30	+8	16.8	+5.16
6	St. Mirren	18	9	1	8	19	38	29	+9	16.6	+2.37
7	St. Bernards	18	7	0	11	14	32	40	-8	15.3	-1.31
8	Third Lanark	18	5	1	12	11	29	46	-17	16.9	-5.90
9	Clyde	18	4	0	14	8	27	65	-38	13.0	-5.00
10	Abercorn	18	1	1	16	3	21	88	-67	13.4	-10.44

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Heart of Midlothian	1645	28	22.21	+5.79	97.1%	8	16	20	22	25	28	34
Celtic	1632	24	22.72	+1.28	70.2%	9	17	20	23	25	28	34
Rangers	1616	25	21.48	+3.52	87.5%	9	16	19	22	24	27	33
Hibernian	1604	26	21.47	+4.53	92.8%	10	16	19	22	24	27	34
Dundee	1508	22	16.84	+5.16	94.3%	2	11	14	17	19	23	29
St. Mirren	1497	19	16.63	+2.37	79.0%	2	11	14	17	19	22	29
St. Bernards	1419	14	15.31	-1.31	41.5%	3	10	13	15	18	21	28
Third Lanark	1393	11	16.90	-5.90	6.5%	3	11	14	17	19	23	30
Clyde	1317	8	13.00	-5.00	9.2%	2	8	11	13	15	18	25
Abercorn	1269	3	13.44	-10.44	0.1%	0	8	11	13	16	19	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ABE	CEL	CLY	DUN	HOM	HIB	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Abercorn	—	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 3.00	0-0-2 2.04	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 1.77	0-0-2 1.80	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 2.35
Celtic	2-0-0 3.94	—	2-0-0 3.99	0-1-1 4.03	1-1-0 3.13	0-1-1 3.13	0-1-1 3.23	2-0-0 3.93	1-0-1 3.92	2-0-0 4.04
Clyde	2-0-0 2.83	0-0-2 1.85	—	0-0-2 2.26	0-0-2 1.21	0-0-2 1.89	0-0-2 1.47	0-0-2 2.59	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.31
Dundee	2-0-0 3.79	1-1-0 1.81	2-0-0 3.57	—	0-1-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.20	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.67
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 4.19	0-1-1 2.70	2-0-0 4.63	1-1-0 3.57	—	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 3.12	2-0-0 3.85	2-0-0 3.71	2-0-0 3.93
Hibernian	1-1-0 4.06	1-1-0 2.70	2-0-0 3.95	1-0-1 3.63	1-0-1 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.99	2-0-0 3.82	1-0-1 3.85	2-0-0 3.54
Rangers	2-0-0 4.03	1-1-0 2.60	2-0-0 4.36	1-0-1 3.69	1-0-1 2.71	1-0-1 2.84	—	1-0-1 4.14	1-1-0 3.65	1-1-0 3.45
St. Bernards	2-0-0 3.34	0-0-2 1.91	2-0-0 3.24	1-0-1 2.69	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-2 2.02	1-0-1 1.69	—	0-0-2 2.68	1-0-1 2.68
St. Mirren	1-0-1 3.38	1-0-1 1.92	1-0-1 3.49	1-0-1 2.97	0-0-2 2.13	1-0-1 1.99	0-1-1 2.18	2-0-0 3.15	—	2-0-0 3.05
Third Lanark	2-0-0 3.48	0-0-2 1.79	1-0-1 3.53	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 2.29	0-1-1 2.39	1-0-1 3.15	0-0-2 2.78	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	2.78%	7.22%	2.78%	0.56%	5.00%	18.33%
1	2.78%	4.44%	5.00%	5.00%	2.22%	4.44%	23.89%
2	7.22%	5.00%	4.44%	5.56%	0.56%	2.78%	25.56%
3	2.78%	5.00%	5.56%	—	1.11%	0.56%	15.00%
4	0.56%	2.22%	0.56%	1.11%	—	—	4.44%
5+	5.00%	4.44%	2.78%	0.56%	—	—	12.78%
Total	18.33%	23.89%	25.56%	15.00%	4.44%	12.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.16
Mean allowed	2.16
StdDev scored	1.91
StdDev allowed	1.91
Mean total goals/game	4.31
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.304
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%	33.33%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	55.56%	100%

Abercorn — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	4.89
StdDev scored	1.04
StdDev allowed	2.49
Mean total goals/game	6.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.015
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	2.03
StdDev allowed	0.91
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.319
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	27.78%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	3.61
StdDev scored	1.54
StdDev allowed	2.12
Mean total goals/game	5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.315
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.60
StdDev allowed	1.53
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.414
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	27.78%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	2.03
StdDev allowed	1.26
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.400
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	38.89%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.78
Mean allowed	1.11
StdDev scored	2.37
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.254
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.56
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	2.31
StdDev allowed	1.08
Mean total goals/game	5.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.063
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	1.26
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.404
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	22.22%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.521
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	16.67%	38.89%	33.33%	—	11.11%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.56
StdDev scored	1.91
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.026
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	28	22.2	+5.79
2	Dundee	22	16.8	+5.16
3	Hibernian	26	21.5	+4.53
4	Rangers	25	21.5	+3.52
5	St. Mirren	19	16.6	+2.37

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Abercorn	3	13.4	-10.44
2	Third Lanark	11	16.9	-5.90
3	Clyde	8	13.0	-5.00
4	St. Bernards	14	15.3	-1.31
5	Celtic	24	22.7	+1.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dundee	4	Nov 28 – Feb 20	1 in 60
2	Celtic	6	Aug 17 – Sep 26	1 in 30
3	St. Bernards	3	Nov 28 – Dec 26	1 in 18
4	Heart of Midlothian	7	Oct 31 – Feb 20	1 in 17
5	St. Mirren	3	Feb 13 – Mar 13	1 in 14

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Third Lanark	6	Nov 21 – Feb 20	1 in 192
2	Abercorn	8	Oct 31 – Jan 16	1 in 100
3	Clyde	5	Aug 15 – Sep 5	1 in 45
4	Celtic	3	Dec 19 – Mar 13	1 in 30
5	St. Bernards	4	Sep 12 – Oct 3	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	14	Aug 17 – Dec 12	1 in 211
2	Heart of Midlothian	10	Oct 3 – Feb 20	1 in 46
3	Rangers	6	Sep 26 – Nov 7	1 in 25
4	Hibernian	6	Oct 17 – Nov 28	1 in 20
5	Dundee	4	Sep 12 – Oct 3	1 in 17

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Abercorn	9	Aug 22 – Oct 17	1 in 58
2	Third Lanark	6	Nov 21 – Feb 20	1 in 57
3	Clyde	5	Aug 15 – Sep 5	1 in 18
4	Celtic	3	Dec 19 – Mar 13	1 in 13
5	Heart of Midlothian	3	Sep 5 – Sep 19	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Heart of Midlothian	24.89%	22.45%	18.62%	14.54%	9.21%	5.31%	2.87%	1.45%	0.48%	0.18%
Hibernian	19.91%	20.10%	19.53%	16.16%	10.10%	6.98%	3.90%	2.11%	0.84%	0.37%
Rangers	21.34%	21.02%	19.30%	14.55%	10.00%	6.84%	3.80%	1.94%	0.92%	0.29%
Celtic	28.10%	23.67%	18.59%	14.34%	7.92%	3.90%	1.96%	1.03%	0.40%	0.09%
Dundee	1.66%	3.80%	6.60%	10.40%	14.89%	17.05%	16.52%	13.27%	9.80%	6.01%
St. Mirren	1.59%	3.40%	5.86%	10.33%	15.32%	16.29%	16.05%	13.58%	10.89%	6.69%
St. Bernards	0.67%	1.54%	3.05%	5.90%	9.78%	14.13%	17.06%	19.05%	16.64%	12.18%
Third Lanark	1.59%	3.35%	6.53%	9.65%	14.42%	16.19%	16.18%	14.17%	11.55%	6.37%
Clyde	0.10%	0.26%	0.69%	1.71%	3.63%	6.39%	10.77%	16.61%	25.76%	34.08%
Abercorn	0.15%	0.41%	1.23%	2.42%	4.73%	6.92%	10.89%	16.79%	22.72%	33.74%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	99.9%	0.1%
Heart of Midlothian	99.8%	0.2%
Rangers	99.7%	0.3%
Hibernian	99.6%	0.4%
Dundee	94.0%	6.0%
Third Lanark	93.6%	6.4%
St. Mirren	93.3%	6.7%
St. Bernards	87.8%	12.2%
Abercorn	66.3%	33.7%
Clyde	65.9%	34.1%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1896-08-15	St. Bernards	L 1-2	1429	1447	66.8%	8.3%	24.8%	-9.0	0
1896-08-15	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1447	1429	24.8%	8.3%	66.8%	+9.0	3
1896-08-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1463	1555	58.0%	8.4%	33.6%	-36.5	0
1896-08-15	@ Dundee	W 5-0	1555	1463	33.6%	8.4%	58.0%	+36.5	3
1896-08-15	Celtic	W 3-1	1529	1565	64.9%	8.4%	26.8%	+6.5	3
1896-08-15	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1565	1529	26.8%	8.4%	64.9%	-6.5	0
1896-08-15	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1531	1447	76.2%	8.3%	15.5%	+7.1	3
1896-08-15	@ Rangers	L 1-5	1447	1531	15.5%	8.3%	76.2%	-7.1	0
1896-08-17	Celtic	L 2-7	1420	1558	51.9%	8.4%	39.8%	-22.7	0
1896-08-17	@ Clyde	W 7-2	1558	1420	39.8%	8.4%	51.9%	+22.7	3
1896-08-19	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1535	1475	74.4%	8.3%	17.3%	+5.0	6
1896-08-19	@ Hibernian	L 0-2	1475	1535	17.3%	8.3%	74.4%	-5.0	0
1896-08-22	St. Bernards	W 2-0	1581	1456	79.1%	8.2%	12.7%	+3.7	6
1896-08-22	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1456	1581	12.7%	8.2%	79.1%	-3.7	3
1896-08-22	Hibernian	W 3-0	1426	1540	55.1%	8.4%	36.5%	+14.7	3
1896-08-22	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1540	1426	36.5%	8.4%	55.1%	-14.7	6
1896-08-22	Abercorn	W 6-1	1591	1459	79.6%	8.2%	12.2%	+6.9	6
1896-08-22	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-6	1459	1591	12.2%	8.2%	79.6%	-6.9	0
1896-08-22	Clyde	W 5-0	1440	1398	72.9%	8.3%	18.8%	+12.6	3
1896-08-22	@ St. Mirren	L 0-5	1398	1440	18.8%	8.3%	72.9%	-12.6	0
1896-08-22	Rangers	D 1-1	1470	1538	61.0%	8.4%	30.6%	-1.1	1
1896-08-22	@ Third Lanark	D 1-1	1538	1470	30.6%	8.4%	61.0%	+1.1	4
1896-08-29	Celtic	L 0-6	1452	1584	52.7%	8.4%	39.0%	-39.5	0
1896-08-29	@ Abercorn	W 6-0	1584	1452	39.0%	8.4%	52.7%	+39.5	9
1896-08-29	Hibernian	L 0-7	1385	1526	51.5%	8.4%	40.2%	-44.7	0
1896-08-29	@ Clyde	W 7-0	1526	1385	40.2%	8.4%	51.5%	+44.7	9
1896-08-29	St. Mirren	W 2-1	1598	1453	80.4%	8.2%	11.4%	+1.7	9
1896-08-29	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1453	1598	11.4%	8.2%	80.4%	-1.7	3
1896-08-29	Dundee	W 3-1	1539	1441	77.3%	8.2%	14.4%	+3.6	7
1896-08-29	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1441	1539	14.4%	8.2%	77.3%	-3.6	3
1896-08-29	Third Lanark	L 2-3	1453	1469	67.1%	8.3%	24.6%	-8.5	3
1896-08-29	@ St. Bernards	W 3-2	1469	1453	24.6%	8.3%	67.1%	+8.5	4
1896-09-05	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-0	1624	1600	71.2%	8.3%	20.5%	+8.5	12
1896-09-05	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1600	1624	20.5%	8.3%	71.2%	-8.5	9
1896-09-05	Rangers	W 4-3	1570	1543	71.5%	8.3%	20.2%	+2.7	12
1896-09-05	@ Hibernian	L 3-4	1543	1570	20.2%	8.3%	71.5%	-2.7	7
1896-09-05	Clyde	W 4-1	1444	1340	77.8%	8.2%	14.0%	+5.0	6
1896-09-05	@ St. Bernards	L 1-4	1340	1444	14.0%	8.2%	77.8%	-5.0	0
1896-09-05	Dundee	W 4-1	1451	1437	70.2%	8.3%	21.5%	+7.5	6
1896-09-05	@ St. Mirren	L 1-4	1437	1451	21.5%	8.3%	70.2%	-7.5	3
1896-09-05	Abercorn	W 8-3	1477	1413	74.7%	8.3%	17.0%	+7.2	7
1896-09-05	@ Third Lanark	L 3-8	1413	1477	17.0%	8.3%	74.7%	-7.2	0
1896-09-12	Hibernian	D 2-2	1406	1573	47.7%	8.4%	43.9%	-0.1	1
1896-09-12	@ Abercorn	D 2-2	1573	1406	43.9%	8.4%	47.7%	+0.1	13
1896-09-12	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1335	1459	53.8%	8.4%	37.8%	+9.1	3
1896-09-12	@ Clyde	L 1-3	1459	1335	37.8%	8.4%	53.8%	-9.0	6
1896-09-12	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1430	1484	62.7%	8.4%	28.9%	+8.1	6
1896-09-12	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1484	1430	28.9%	8.4%	62.7%	-8.1	7
1896-09-12	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-0	1540	1591	63.1%	8.4%	28.5%	+18.8	10
1896-09-12	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1591	1540	28.5%	8.4%	63.1%	-18.8	9
1896-09-12	Celtic	L 1-2	1449	1632	45.4%	8.4%	46.2%	-6.2	6
1896-09-12	@ St. Bernards	W 2-1	1632	1449	46.2%	8.4%	45.4%	+6.2	15
1896-09-19	Dundee	D 2-2	1572	1438	79.8%	8.2%	12.0%	-1.8	10
1896-09-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1438	1572	12.0%	8.2%	79.8%	+1.8	7
1896-09-19	St. Bernards	W 2-0	1573	1443	79.5%	8.2%	12.3%	+3.6	16
1896-09-19	@ Hibernian	L 0-2	1443	1573	12.3%	8.2%	79.5%	-3.6	6
1896-09-19	Abercorn	W 4-2	1450	1406	73.0%	8.3%	18.7%	+4.2	9
1896-09-19	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1406	1450	18.7%	8.3%	73.0%	-4.2	1
1896-09-21	Rangers	W 2-1	1571	1559	69.9%	8.3%	21.7%	+3.1	13
1896-09-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1559	1571	21.7%	8.3%	69.9%	-3.1	10
1896-09-26	Rangers	L 2-9	1401	1556	49.6%	8.4%	42.1%	-29.2	1
1896-09-26	@ Abercorn	W 9-2	1556	1401	42.1%	8.4%	49.6%	+29.2	13
1896-09-26	St. Mirren	W 2-1	1639	1454	82.6%	8.1%	9.3%	+1.4	18
1896-09-26	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1454	1639	9.3%	8.1%	82.6%	-1.3	9
1896-09-26	St. Bernards	W 4-1	1440	1439	68.8%	8.3%	22.9%	+8.0	10
1896-09-26	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1439	1440	22.9%	8.3%	68.8%	-8.0	6
1896-09-26	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1577	1574	69.1%	8.3%	22.6%	+6.4	19
1896-09-26	@ Hibernian	L 0-2	1574	1577	22.6%	8.3%	69.1%	-6.4	13
1896-09-26	Clyde	W 3-2	1476	1344	79.6%	8.2%	12.2%	+1.7	10
1896-09-26	@ Third Lanark	L 2-3	1344	1476	12.2%	8.2%	79.6%	-1.7	3
1896-10-03	Abercorn	W 6-2	1343	1372	65.6%	8.4%	26.1%	+9.9	6
1896-10-03	@ Clyde	L 2-6	1372	1343	26.1%	8.4%	65.6%	-9.9	1
1896-10-03	Celtic	D 2-2	1448	1640	44.1%	8.4%	47.5%	+0.1	11
1896-10-03	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1640	1448	47.5%	8.4%	44.1%	-0.1	19
1896-10-03	Hibernian	W 4-3	1585	1583	69.0%	8.3%	22.7%	+3.0	16
1896-10-03	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1583	1585	22.7%	8.3%	69.0%	-3.0	19
1896-10-03	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-5	1431	1567	52.1%	8.4%	39.5%	-14.9	6
1896-10-03	@ St. Bernards	W 5-2	1567	1431	39.5%	8.4%	52.1%	+14.9	16
1896-10-03	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1453	1478	66.1%	8.3%	25.6%	+7.2	12
1896-10-03	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1478	1453	25.6%	8.3%	66.1%	-7.2	10
1896-10-10	St. Bernards	L 2-3	1362	1416	62.7%	8.4%	28.9%	-8.0	1
1896-10-10	@ Abercorn	W 3-2	1416	1362	28.9%	8.4%	62.7%	+8.0	9
1896-10-10	Rangers	D 1-1	1640	1588	73.7%	8.3%	18.0%	-2.0	20
1896-10-10	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1588	1640	18.0%	8.3%	73.7%	+2.0	17
1896-10-10	Dundee	W 3-1	1471	1448	71.0%	8.3%	20.7%	+5.1	13
1896-10-10	@ Third Lanark	L 1-3	1448	1471	20.7%	8.3%	71.0%	-5.1	11
1896-10-17	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1638	1476	81.4%	8.1%	10.4%	+3.0	23
1896-10-17	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1476	1638	10.4%	8.1%	81.4%	-3.1	13
1896-10-17	Abercorn	W 3-0	1443	1354	76.6%	8.2%	15.2%	+6.4	14
1896-10-17	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1354	1443	15.2%	8.2%	76.6%	-6.4	1
1896-10-17	Clyde	W 2-1	1590	1352	85.0%	8.0%	7.0%	+1.0	20
1896-10-17	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1352	1590	7.0%	8.0%	85.0%	-1.0	6
1896-10-17	Hibernian	L 0-1	1424	1580	49.4%	8.4%	42.2%	-7.1	9
1896-10-17	@ St. Bernards	W 1-0	1580	1424	42.2%	8.4%	49.4%	+7.1	22
1896-10-17	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1460	1582	54.0%	8.4%	37.6%	-14.5	12
1896-10-17	@ St. Mirren	W 2-0	1582	1460	37.6%	8.4%	54.0%	+14.5	19
1896-10-24	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1348	1445	57.4%	8.4%	34.3%	+4.5	4
1896-10-24	@ Abercorn	L 2-3	1445	1348	34.3%	8.4%	57.4%	-4.5	12
1896-10-24	Dundee	L 0-2	1351	1449	57.3%	8.4%	34.3%	-15.4	6
1896-10-24	@ Clyde	W 2-0	1449	1351	34.3%	8.4%	57.3%	+15.4	17
1896-10-24	Celtic	D 1-1	1597	1641	63.9%	8.4%	27.7%	-1.3	20
1896-10-24	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1641	1597	27.7%	8.4%	63.9%	+1.3	24
1896-10-24	Third Lanark	W 6-1	1591	1473	78.7%	8.2%	13.1%	+7.3	23
1896-10-24	@ Rangers	L 1-6	1473	1591	13.1%	8.2%	78.7%	-7.3	13
1896-10-31	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1353	1595	37.1%	8.3%	54.6%	-5.5	4
1896-10-31	@ Abercorn	W 1-0	1595	1353	54.6%	8.3%	37.1%	+5.5	23
1896-10-31	Dundee	W 3-1	1587	1464	79.0%	8.2%	12.8%	+3.2	25
1896-10-31	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1464	1587	12.8%	8.2%	79.0%	-3.2	17
1896-10-31	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1417	1441	66.3%	8.3%	25.4%	-17.8	9
1896-10-31	@ St. Bernards	W 2-0	1441	1417	25.4%	8.3%	66.3%	+17.8	15
1896-11-07	Abercorn	W 5-0	1642	1347	87.0%	7.9%	5.2%	+3.5	27
1896-11-07	@ Celtic	L 0-5	1347	1642	5.2%	7.9%	87.0%	-3.5	4
1896-11-07	Clyde	W 1-0	1461	1336	79.2%	8.2%	12.6%	+2.0	20
1896-11-07	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1336	1461	12.6%	8.2%	79.2%	-1.9	6
1896-11-07	St. Bernards	W 3-1	1601	1400	83.4%	8.1%	8.5%	+2.2	26
1896-11-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1400	1601	8.5%	8.1%	83.4%	-2.2	9
1896-11-07	Rangers	D 2-2	1458	1598	51.6%	8.4%	40.0%	-0.3	16
1896-11-07	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1598	1458	40.0%	8.4%	51.6%	+0.3	24
1896-11-07	Hibernian	L 1-3	1465	1590	53.6%	8.4%	38.0%	-12.5	13
1896-11-07	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1590	1465	38.0%	8.4%	53.6%	+12.5	28
1896-11-14	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1344	1453	55.8%	8.4%	35.9%	-7.5	4
1896-11-14	@ Abercorn	W 2-1	1453	1344	35.9%	8.4%	55.8%	+7.5	16
1896-11-14	Clyde	W 5-1	1603	1334	86.1%	7.9%	6.0%	+2.8	31
1896-11-14	@ Hibernian	L 1-5	1334	1603	6.0%	7.9%	86.1%	-2.8	6
1896-11-14	Dundee	W 2-1	1397	1463	61.4%	8.4%	30.3%	+4.2	12
1896-11-14	@ St. Bernards	L 1-2	1463	1397	30.3%	8.4%	61.4%	-4.2	20
1896-11-21	Third Lanark	W 2-1	1603	1460	80.3%	8.2%	11.6%	+1.7	29
1896-11-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1460	1603	11.6%	8.2%	80.3%	-1.7	16
1896-11-21	Abercorn	W 9-0	1606	1336	86.1%	7.9%	5.9%	+7.1	34
1896-11-21	@ Hibernian	L 0-9	1336	1606	5.9%	7.9%	86.1%	-7.1	4
1896-11-21	St. Bernards	W 4-0	1458	1402	74.1%	8.3%	17.7%	+9.6	19
1896-11-21	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1402	1458	17.7%	8.3%	74.1%	-9.6	12
1896-11-28	Clyde	L 1-3	1329	1331	68.5%	8.3%	23.2%	-15.9	4
1896-11-28	@ Abercorn	W 3-1	1331	1329	23.2%	8.3%	68.5%	+15.9	9
1896-11-28	Hibernian	D 1-1	1646	1613	72.0%	8.3%	19.7%	-1.9	28
1896-11-28	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1613	1646	19.7%	8.3%	72.0%	+1.9	35
1896-11-28	Rangers	W 3-2	1459	1599	51.6%	8.4%	40.0%	+5.2	23
1896-11-28	@ Dundee	L 2-3	1599	1459	40.0%	8.4%	51.6%	-5.2	24
1896-11-28	St. Bernards	L 2-3	1459	1392	74.9%	8.3%	16.8%	-9.5	16
1896-11-28	@ Third Lanark	W 3-2	1392	1459	16.8%	8.3%	74.9%	+9.5	15
1896-12-05	Rangers	L 2-7	1347	1593	36.6%	8.3%	55.0%	-16.5	9
1896-12-05	@ Clyde	W 7-2	1593	1347	55.0%	8.3%	36.6%	+16.5	27
1896-12-05	Hibernian	W 1-0	1605	1615	67.7%	8.3%	23.9%	+3.6	32
1896-12-05	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1615	1605	23.9%	8.3%	67.7%	-3.6	35
1896-12-05	Celtic	L 0-3	1449	1644	43.8%	8.4%	47.9%	-17.4	16
1896-12-05	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1644	1449	47.9%	8.4%	43.8%	+17.4	31
1896-12-12	Clyde	W 4-1	1661	1331	87.9%	7.8%	4.3%	+1.5	34
1896-12-12	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1331	1661	4.3%	7.8%	87.9%	-1.5	9
1896-12-12	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1464	1468	68.4%	8.3%	23.3%	+3.1	26
1896-12-12	@ Dundee	L 2-3	1468	1464	23.3%	8.3%	68.4%	-3.1	19
1896-12-12	Abercorn	W 6-1	1610	1313	87.0%	7.9%	5.1%	+2.9	30
1896-12-12	@ Rangers	L 1-6	1313	1610	5.1%	7.9%	87.0%	-2.9	4
1896-12-12	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1432	1608	46.4%	8.4%	45.2%	-20.0	16
1896-12-12	@ Third Lanark	W 5-1	1608	1432	45.2%	8.4%	46.4%	+20.0	35
1896-12-19	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1329	1412	59.2%	8.4%	32.4%	+4.3	12
1896-12-19	@ Clyde	L 2-3	1412	1329	32.4%	8.4%	59.2%	-4.3	16
1896-12-19	Celtic	W 2-0	1613	1663	63.2%	8.4%	28.4%	+8.0	33
1896-12-19	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1663	1613	28.4%	8.4%	63.2%	-8.0	34
1896-12-19	Abercorn	W 6-0	1402	1310	76.8%	8.2%	14.9%	+12.0	18
1896-12-19	@ St. Bernards	L 0-6	1310	1402	14.9%	8.2%	76.8%	-12.0	4
1896-12-26	Rangers	W 3-2	1414	1621	42.0%	8.4%	49.6%	+6.4	21
1896-12-26	@ St. Bernards	L 2-3	1621	1414	49.6%	8.4%	42.0%	-6.4	33
1897-01-16	Dundee	L 1-7	1298	1467	47.5%	8.4%	44.2%	-29.5	4
1897-01-16	@ Abercorn	W 7-1	1467	1298	44.2%	8.4%	47.5%	+29.5	29
1897-01-16	St. Mirren	W 3-0	1611	1465	80.5%	8.2%	11.3%	+4.8	38
1897-01-16	@ Hibernian	L 0-3	1465	1611	11.3%	8.2%	80.5%	-4.8	19
1897-02-13	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1334	1628	30.4%	8.3%	61.3%	-13.5	12
1897-02-13	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1628	1334	61.3%	8.3%	30.4%	+13.5	38
1897-02-13	Hibernian	W 2-0	1460	1616	49.3%	8.4%	42.3%	+11.6	22
1897-02-13	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1616	1460	42.3%	8.4%	49.3%	-11.6	38
1897-02-20	Dundee	L 0-1	1655	1497	81.2%	8.2%	10.7%	-11.6	34
1897-02-20	@ Celtic	W 1-0	1497	1655	10.7%	8.2%	81.2%	+11.6	32
1897-02-20	Clyde	W 5-0	1642	1320	87.7%	7.8%	4.5%	+3.1	41
1897-02-20	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1320	1642	4.5%	7.8%	87.7%	-3.1	12
1897-02-20	St. Bernards	W 3-2	1614	1420	83.1%	8.1%	8.8%	+1.2	36
1897-02-20	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1420	1614	8.8%	8.1%	83.1%	-1.2	21
1897-02-20	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1407	1471	61.6%	8.4%	30.1%	-14.3	16
1897-02-20	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1471	1407	30.1%	8.4%	61.6%	+14.3	25
1897-03-13	Celtic	W 2-0	1486	1643	49.1%	8.4%	42.5%	+11.7	28
1897-03-13	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1643	1486	42.5%	8.4%	49.1%	-11.7	34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1897-02-20	10.68%	Dundee	1497	1	@ Celtic	1655	0
2	1896-11-28	16.83%	St. Bernards	1392	3	@ Third Lanark	1459	2
3	1896-11-28	23.15%	Clyde	1331	3	@ Abercorn	1329	1
4	1896-08-29	24.56%	Third Lanark	1469	3	@ St. Bernards	1453	2
5	1896-08-15	24.82%	St. Bernards	1447	2	@ Clyde	1429	1
6	1896-10-31	25.37%	St. Mirren	1441	2	@ St. Bernards	1417	0
7	1896-10-10	28.89%	St. Bernards	1416	3	@ Abercorn	1362	2
8	1897-02-20	30.08%	St. Mirren	1471	3	@ Third Lanark	1407	1
9	1896-08-15	33.61%	Heart of Midlothian	1555	5	@ Dundee	1463	0
10	1896-10-24	34.31%	Dundee	1449	2	@ Clyde	1351	0
11	1896-11-14	35.85%	Third Lanark	1453	2	@ Abercorn	1344	1
12	1896-10-17	37.63%	Heart of Midlothian	1582	2	@ St. Mirren	1460	0
13	1896-11-07	37.99%	Hibernian	1590	3	@ Third Lanark	1465	1
14	1896-08-29	38.96%	Celtic	1584	6	@ Abercorn	1452	0
15	1896-10-03	39.47%	Heart of Midlothian	1567	5	@ St. Bernards	1431	2
16	1896-08-17	39.75%	Celtic	1558	7	@ Clyde	1420	2
17	1896-08-29	40.15%	Hibernian	1526	7	@ Clyde	1385	0
18	1896-12-26	42.03%	@ St. Bernards	1414	3	Rangers	1621	2
19	1896-09-26	42.06%	Rangers	1556	9	@ Abercorn	1401	2
20	1896-10-17	42.24%	Hibernian	1580	1	@ St. Bernards	1424	0
21	1897-01-16	44.17%	Dundee	1467	7	@ Abercorn	1298	1
22	1896-12-12	45.25%	Heart of Midlothian	1608	5	@ Third Lanark	1432	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1896-08-29	44.72	Hibernian	7	1526	40.15%	@ Clyde	0	1385	51.47%
2	1896-08-29	39.48	Celtic	6	1584	38.96%	@ Abercorn	0	1452	52.66%
3	1896-08-15	36.47	Heart of Midlothian	5	1555	33.61%	@ Dundee	0	1463	58.01%
4	1897-01-16	29.54	Dundee	7	1467	44.17%	@ Abercorn	1	1298	47.46%
5	1896-09-26	29.18	Rangers	9	1556	42.06%	@ Abercorn	2	1401	49.56%
6	1896-08-17	22.70	Celtic	7	1558	39.75%	@ Clyde	2	1420	51.87%
7	1896-12-12	19.96	Heart of Midlothian	5	1608	45.25%	@ Third Lanark	1	1432	46.38%
8	1896-09-12	18.79	@ Rangers	5	1540	63.10%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1591	28.53%
9	1896-10-31	17.78	St. Mirren	2	1441	25.37%	@ St. Bernards	0	1417	66.28%
10	1896-12-05	17.39	Celtic	3	1644	47.86%	@ Third Lanark	0	1449	43.77%
11	1896-12-05	16.45	Rangers	7	1593	55.01%	@ Clyde	2	1347	36.65%
12	1896-11-28	15.92	Clyde	3	1331	23.15%	@ Abercorn	1	1329	68.51%
13	1896-10-24	15.41	Dundee	2	1449	34.31%	@ Clyde	0	1351	57.31%
14	1896-10-03	14.94	Heart of Midlothian	5	1567	39.47%	@ St. Bernards	2	1431	52.15%
15	1896-08-22	14.70	@ Dundee	3	1426	55.11%	Hibernian	0	1540	36.51%
16	1896-10-17	14.55	Heart of Midlothian	2	1582	37.63%	@ St. Mirren	0	1460	53.99%
17	1897-02-20	14.31	St. Mirren	3	1471	30.08%	@ Third Lanark	1	1407	61.55%
18	1897-02-13	13.47	Heart of Midlothian	5	1628	61.30%	@ Clyde	1	1334	30.41%
19	1896-08-22	12.64	@ St. Mirren	5	1440	72.86%	Clyde	0	1398	18.84%
20	1896-11-07	12.53	Hibernian	3	1590	37.99%	@ Third Lanark	1	1465	53.63%
21	1896-12-19	11.98	@ St. Bernards	6	1402	76.84%	Abercorn	0	1310	14.92%
22	1897-03-13	11.66	@ St. Mirren	2	1486	49.12%	Celtic	0	1643	42.50%
23	1897-02-13	11.60	@ St. Mirren	2	1460	49.33%	Hibernian	0	1616	42.29%
24	1897-02-20	11.59	Dundee	1	1497	10.68%	@ Celtic	0	1655	81.17%
25	1896-10-03	9.90	@ Clyde	6	1343	65.57%	Abercorn	2	1372	26.07%