1897-98 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Celtic

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

8.39 points above expected

33 points · 24.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Clyde

5.32 points below expected

5 points · 10.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Celtic	18	15	3	0	33	56	13	+43	24.6	+8.39
2	Rangers	18	13	3	2	29	71	15	+56	23.5	+5.47
3	Hibernian	18	10	2	6	22	47	29	+18	21.5	+0.54
4	Heart of Midlothian	18	8	4	6	20	54	33	+21	22.1	-2.12
5	Third Lanark	18	8	2	8	18	37	38	-1	14.8	+3.18
6	St. Mirren	18	8	2	8	18	30	36	-6	17.9	+0.11
7	Dundee	18	5	3	10	13	29	36	-7	16.6	-3.56
8	Partick Thistle	18	6	1	11	13	34	64	-30	15.0	-2.03
9	St. Bernards	18	4	1	13	9	35	67	-32	13.7	-4.66
10	Clyde	18	1	3	14	5	21	83	-62	10.3	-5.32

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rangers	1681	29	23.53	+5.47	96.8%	11	18	21	24	26	29	34
Celtic	1672	33	24.61	+8.39	99.8%	10	19	22	25	27	30	36
Heart of Midlothian	1567	20	22.12	-2.12	32.5%	5	16	20	22	25	28	34
Hibernian	1532	22	21.46	+0.54	60.7%	8	16	19	22	24	27	34
St. Mirren	1422	18	17.89	+0.11	56.5%	5	12	15	18	20	24	30
Dundee	1407	13	16.56	-3.56	19.1%	4	11	14	17	19	22	30
Third Lanark	1405	18	14.82	+3.18	85.4%	3	9	12	15	17	21	27
Partick Thistle	1319	13	15.03	-2.03	33.5%	3	9	13	15	17	21	28
St. Bernards	1316	9	13.66	-4.66	11.6%	2	8	11	14	16	20	27
Clyde	1184	5	10.32	-5.32	6.5%	0	5	8	10	12	16	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUN	HOM	HIB	PT	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 4.93	2-0-0 4.19	1-1-0 3.16	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 4.71	1-1-0 2.87	2-0-0 4.24	1-1-0 3.99	2-0-0 4.48
Clyde	0-0-2 0.82	—	0-0-2 1.84	0-1-1 1.15	0-0-2 1.14	0-1-1 2.09	0-0-2 1.22	1-0-1 2.31	0-0-2 1.48	0-1-1 2.28
Dundee	0-0-2 1.55	2-0-0 3.89	—	0-0-2 2.36	0-1-1 2.01	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 1.16	0-1-1 3.55	0-1-1 2.76	1-0-1 3.28
Heart of Midlothian	0-1-1 2.57	1-1-0 4.59	2-0-0 3.37	—	1-1-0 3.06	1-0-1 3.89	0-1-1 2.77	2-0-0 4.17	0-0-2 3.53	1-0-1 4.06
Hibernian	0-0-2 2.61	2-0-0 4.60	1-1-0 3.72	0-1-1 2.66	—	2-0-0 3.75	0-0-2 2.51	1-0-1 3.89	2-0-0 3.38	2-0-0 3.82
Partick Thistle	0-0-2 1.03	1-1-0 3.63	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 1.85	0-0-2 1.97	—	0-0-2 1.77	1-0-1 3.39	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.39
Rangers	0-1-1 2.85	2-0-0 4.52	1-0-1 4.58	1-1-0 2.95	2-0-0 3.22	2-0-0 3.97	—	2-0-0 4.08	2-0-0 3.80	1-1-0 4.09
St. Bernards	0-0-2 1.50	1-0-1 3.42	1-1-0 2.17	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 1.83	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 1.66	—	0-0-2 2.14	0-0-2 2.76
St. Mirren	0-1-1 1.74	2-0-0 4.25	1-1-0 2.97	2-0-0 2.20	0-0-2 2.35	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 1.93	2-0-0 3.58	—	0-0-2 3.38
Third Lanark	0-0-2 1.26	1-1-0 3.45	1-0-1 2.45	1-0-1 1.67	0-0-2 1.91	1-0-1 3.34	0-1-1 1.65	2-0-0 2.96	2-0-0 2.35	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	2.78%	2.78%	2.22%	1.67%	5.00%	21.11%
1	2.78%	4.44%	3.33%	3.89%	1.11%	8.89%	24.44%
2	2.78%	3.33%	2.22%	4.44%	3.33%	2.78%	18.89%
3	2.22%	3.89%	4.44%	—	—	1.11%	11.67%
4	1.67%	1.11%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.11%
5+	5.00%	8.89%	2.78%	1.11%	—	—	17.78%
Total	21.11%	24.44%	18.89%	11.67%	6.11%	17.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.30
Mean allowed	2.30
StdDev scored	2.16
StdDev allowed	2.16
Mean total goals/game	4.60
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.291
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	44.44%	44.44%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.11
Mean allowed	0.72
StdDev scored	2.37
StdDev allowed	0.83
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.496
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%	50.00%
2	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	50.00%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	4.61
StdDev scored	0.99
StdDev allowed	2.45
Mean total goals/game	5.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.434
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.97
StdDev allowed	1.71
Mean total goals/game	3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.400
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.00
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	2.28
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.212
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.486
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	38.89%	100%

Partick Thistle — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	3.56
StdDev scored	1.53
StdDev allowed	2.36
Mean total goals/game	5.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.145
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	22.22%	27.78%	—	—	—	—	50.00%
Total	50.00%	27.78%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.94
Mean allowed	0.83
StdDev scored	2.96
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	4.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.238
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	44.44%	100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	3.72
StdDev scored	2.10
StdDev allowed	2.32
Mean total goals/game	5.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.353
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	—	11.11%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.94
StdDev allowed	2.20
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.152
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	2.00
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.313
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Celtic	33	24.6	+8.39
2	Rangers	29	23.5	+5.47
3	Third Lanark	18	14.8	+3.18
4	Hibernian	22	21.5	+0.54
5	St. Mirren	18	17.9	+0.11

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Clyde	5	10.3	-5.32
2	St. Bernards	9	13.7	-4.66
3	Dundee	13	16.6	-3.56
4	Heart of Midlothian	20	22.1	-2.12
5	Partick Thistle	13	15.0	-2.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rangers	9	Oct 2 – Jan 3	1 in 111
2	Celtic	11	Oct 9 – Feb 12	1 in 88
3	Hibernian	8	Sep 27 – Nov 20	1 in 67
4	Third Lanark	2	Nov 13 – Nov 20	1 in 14
5	St. Mirren	3	Sep 11 – Sep 25	1 in 14

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Bernards	7	Oct 2 – Nov 20	1 in 76
2	Clyde	9	Nov 13 – Feb 5	1 in 57
3	Third Lanark	4	Sep 25 – Oct 9	1 in 12
4	Heart of Midlothian	2	Sep 25 – Oct 2	1 in 9
5	Partick Thistle	4	Nov 20 – Dec 25	1 in 8

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	18	Sep 4 – Apr 11	1 in 332
2	Rangers	9	Oct 2 – Jan 3	1 in 16
3	St. Mirren	5	Sep 11 – Oct 9	1 in 13
4	Hibernian	8	Sep 27 – Nov 20	1 in 12
5	Third Lanark	3	Jan 29 – Apr 9	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	6	Sep 4 – Oct 2	1 in 57
2	Clyde	14	Oct 9 – Feb 5	1 in 25
3	St. Bernards	7	Oct 2 – Nov 20	1 in 15
4	Third Lanark	5	Sep 11 – Oct 9	1 in 7
5	Hibernian	4	Sep 4 – Sep 25	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Celtic	41.09%	26.95%	16.65%	8.84%	4.08%	1.58%	0.58%	0.16%	0.04%	0.03%
Rangers	31.20%	27.02%	19.16%	12.21%	6.07%	2.67%	1.15%	0.37%	0.13%	0.02%
Hibernian	10.67%	17.21%	22.10%	22.62%	12.96%	7.60%	3.98%	1.94%	0.75%	0.17%
Heart of Midlothian	14.47%	20.75%	23.67%	19.25%	11.25%	5.96%	2.82%	1.22%	0.51%	0.10%
Third Lanark	0.24%	0.71%	2.08%	5.21%	11.12%	16.44%	19.27%	19.74%	16.63%	8.56%
St. Mirren	1.50%	4.18%	8.11%	14.32%	21.18%	19.23%	13.80%	10.05%	5.39%	2.24%
Dundee	0.57%	2.02%	4.64%	9.75%	17.03%	19.36%	19.12%	14.20%	9.52%	3.79%
Partick Thistle	0.18%	0.71%	2.31%	4.73%	9.55%	14.85%	18.95%	21.19%	18.65%	8.88%
St. Bernards	0.07%	0.42%	1.20%	2.72%	5.75%	10.14%	15.08%	21.51%	27.15%	15.96%
Clyde	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.35%	1.01%	2.17%	5.25%	9.62%	21.23%	60.25%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Celtic	100%
Clyde	100%
Dundee	100%
Heart of Midlothian	100%
Hibernian	100%
Partick Thistle	100%
Rangers	100%
St. Bernards	100%
St. Mirren	100%
Third Lanark	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1897-09-04	Hibernian	W 4-1	1539	1517	62.6%	13.8%	23.6%	+11.2	3
1897-09-04	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1517	1539	23.6%	13.8%	62.6%	-11.2	0
1897-09-04	Clyde	W 6-0	1448	1322	72.0%	13.4%	14.5%	+16.1	3
1897-09-04	@ Dundee	L 0-6	1322	1448	14.5%	13.4%	72.0%	-16.1	0
1897-09-04	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1416	1536	44.5%	13.9%	41.6%	+7.2	3
1897-09-04	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-3	1536	1416	41.6%	13.9%	44.5%	-7.2	0
1897-09-04	Rangers	L 2-4	1389	1524	42.4%	13.9%	43.7%	-11.9	0
1897-09-04	@ St. Bernards	W 4-2	1524	1389	43.7%	13.9%	42.4%	+11.9	3
1897-09-04	St. Mirren	W 2-0	1373	1443	51.4%	13.9%	34.7%	+12.9	3
1897-09-04	@ Third Lanark	L 0-2	1443	1373	34.7%	13.9%	51.4%	-12.9	0
1897-09-11	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1306	1386	50.0%	13.9%	36.0%	-0.6	1
1897-09-11	@ Clyde	D 1-1	1386	1306	36.0%	13.9%	50.0%	+0.6	4
1897-09-11	St. Bernards	D 0-0	1464	1377	68.8%	13.6%	17.6%	-2.6	4
1897-09-11	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1377	1464	17.6%	13.6%	68.8%	+2.6	1
1897-09-11	Celtic	D 0-0	1529	1550	57.5%	13.9%	28.6%	-1.4	1
1897-09-11	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1550	1529	28.6%	13.9%	57.5%	+1.4	4
1897-09-11	Hibernian	W 1-0	1536	1505	63.4%	13.8%	22.9%	+4.7	6
1897-09-11	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1505	1536	22.9%	13.8%	63.4%	-4.7	0
1897-09-11	Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1430	1423	60.9%	13.8%	25.3%	+5.1	3
1897-09-11	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1423	1430	25.3%	13.8%	60.9%	-5.2	3
1897-09-18	Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1501	1527	57.0%	13.9%	29.1%	-1.2	1
1897-09-18	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1527	1501	29.1%	13.9%	57.0%	+1.2	2
1897-09-18	St. Bernards	W 7-2	1435	1380	65.9%	13.7%	20.4%	+12.9	6
1897-09-18	@ St. Mirren	L 2-7	1380	1435	20.4%	13.7%	65.9%	-12.9	1
1897-09-20	Rangers	D 2-2	1528	1540	58.7%	13.9%	27.4%	-1.0	3
1897-09-20	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1540	1528	27.4%	13.9%	58.7%	+1.0	7
1897-09-20	Celtic	L 0-2	1367	1552	35.4%	13.8%	50.7%	-13.1	1
1897-09-20	@ St. Bernards	W 2-0	1552	1367	50.7%	13.8%	35.4%	+13.1	7
1897-09-25	Clyde	W 6-1	1565	1305	80.0%	12.6%	7.4%	+5.8	10
1897-09-25	@ Celtic	L 1-6	1305	1565	7.4%	12.6%	80.0%	-5.8	1
1897-09-25	St. Mirren	L 2-4	1527	1448	68.2%	13.6%	18.2%	-18.5	3
1897-09-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-2	1448	1527	18.2%	13.6%	68.2%	+18.5	9
1897-09-25	Dundee	W 3-1	1418	1461	54.8%	13.9%	31.3%	+10.2	6
1897-09-25	@ Partick Thistle	L 1-3	1461	1418	31.3%	13.9%	54.8%	-10.2	4
1897-09-25	Hibernian	W 3-2	1354	1500	40.8%	13.9%	45.3%	+7.7	4
1897-09-25	@ St. Bernards	L 2-3	1500	1354	45.3%	13.9%	40.8%	-7.7	1
1897-09-25	Rangers	L 0-3	1386	1541	39.5%	13.9%	46.6%	-20.9	4
1897-09-25	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1541	1386	46.6%	13.9%	39.5%	+20.9	10
1897-09-27	Celtic	L 0-4	1562	1571	59.1%	13.9%	27.1%	-39.4	10
1897-09-27	@ Rangers	W 4-0	1571	1562	27.1%	13.9%	59.1%	+39.4	13
1897-09-27	Hibernian	L 1-3	1365	1492	43.5%	13.9%	42.5%	-13.6	4
1897-09-27	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1492	1365	42.5%	13.9%	43.5%	+13.6	4
1897-10-02	St. Bernards	W 4-2	1299	1362	52.4%	13.9%	33.7%	+9.7	4
1897-10-02	@ Clyde	L 2-4	1362	1299	33.7%	13.9%	52.4%	-9.7	4
1897-10-02	Third Lanark	W 4-2	1451	1352	69.9%	13.5%	16.6%	+5.1	7
1897-10-02	@ Dundee	L 2-4	1352	1451	16.6%	13.5%	69.9%	-5.1	4
1897-10-02	Partick Thistle	W 4-2	1505	1428	68.0%	13.6%	18.4%	+5.6	7
1897-10-02	@ Hibernian	L 2-4	1428	1505	18.4%	13.6%	68.0%	-5.6	6
1897-10-02	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1523	1509	61.7%	13.8%	24.5%	+9.4	13
1897-10-02	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1509	1523	24.5%	13.8%	61.7%	-9.4	3
1897-10-02	Celtic	D 0-0	1467	1610	41.1%	13.9%	45.0%	+0.2	10
1897-10-02	@ St. Mirren	D 0-0	1610	1467	45.0%	13.9%	41.1%	-0.2	14
1897-10-09	St. Bernards	W 5-1	1499	1352	73.6%	13.3%	13.1%	+8.3	6
1897-10-09	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1352	1499	13.1%	13.3%	73.6%	-8.3	4
1897-10-09	Clyde	W 5-0	1511	1309	77.0%	13.0%	10.0%	+9.4	10
1897-10-09	@ Hibernian	L 0-5	1309	1511	10.0%	13.0%	77.0%	-9.3	4
1897-10-09	Rangers	L 1-5	1422	1532	45.9%	13.9%	40.2%	-26.0	6
1897-10-09	@ Partick Thistle	W 5-1	1532	1422	40.2%	13.9%	45.9%	+26.0	16
1897-10-09	Dundee	W 2-1	1467	1456	61.3%	13.8%	24.9%	+4.8	13
1897-10-09	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1456	1467	24.9%	13.8%	61.3%	-4.8	7
1897-10-09	Celtic	L 0-1	1347	1610	25.8%	13.6%	60.6%	-5.2	4
1897-10-09	@ Third Lanark	W 1-0	1610	1347	60.6%	13.6%	25.8%	+5.2	17
1897-10-16	Rangers	L 1-8	1300	1558	26.3%	13.6%	60.1%	-26.5	4
1897-10-16	@ Clyde	W 8-1	1558	1300	60.1%	13.6%	26.3%	+26.5	19
1897-10-16	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-6	1451	1508	53.2%	13.9%	32.9%	-36.4	7
1897-10-16	@ Dundee	W 6-1	1508	1451	32.9%	13.9%	53.2%	+36.4	9
1897-10-16	St. Bernards	W 6-1	1520	1344	75.5%	13.2%	11.3%	+8.8	13
1897-10-16	@ Hibernian	L 1-6	1344	1520	11.3%	13.2%	75.5%	-8.8	4
1897-10-16	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1396	1472	50.7%	13.9%	35.4%	+7.0	9
1897-10-16	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1472	1396	35.4%	13.9%	50.7%	-7.0	13
1897-10-23	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1615	1544	67.4%	13.6%	18.9%	+3.5	20
1897-10-23	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1544	1615	18.9%	13.6%	67.4%	-3.5	9
1897-10-23	Partick Thistle	W 5-0	1415	1403	61.4%	13.8%	24.8%	+22.3	10
1897-10-23	@ Dundee	L 0-5	1403	1415	24.8%	13.8%	61.4%	-22.3	9
1897-10-23	Clyde	W 7-0	1585	1273	82.1%	12.2%	5.6%	+7.3	22
1897-10-23	@ Rangers	L 0-7	1273	1585	5.6%	12.2%	82.1%	-7.3	4
1897-10-23	Third Lanark	L 1-3	1335	1341	59.3%	13.9%	26.8%	-18.0	4
1897-10-23	@ St. Bernards	W 3-1	1341	1335	26.8%	13.9%	59.3%	+18.0	7
1897-10-23	Hibernian	L 2-3	1465	1529	52.1%	13.9%	34.0%	-8.7	13
1897-10-23	@ St. Mirren	W 3-2	1529	1465	34.0%	13.9%	52.1%	+8.7	16
1897-10-30	Dundee	W 2-0	1540	1437	70.2%	13.5%	16.3%	+6.4	12
1897-10-30	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1437	1540	16.3%	13.5%	70.2%	-6.4	10
1897-10-30	Clyde	D 1-1	1381	1266	71.2%	13.5%	15.3%	-2.6	10
1897-10-30	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1266	1381	15.3%	13.5%	71.2%	+2.6	5
1897-10-30	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1317	1456	41.8%	13.9%	44.3%	-7.6	4
1897-10-30	@ St. Bernards	W 2-1	1456	1317	44.3%	13.9%	41.8%	+7.6	16
1897-11-06	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1268	1547	24.2%	13.5%	62.3%	+1.3	6
1897-11-06	@ Clyde	D 2-2	1547	1268	62.3%	13.5%	24.2%	-1.3	13
1897-11-06	Celtic	L 1-2	1431	1619	35.0%	13.8%	51.1%	-6.5	10
1897-11-06	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1619	1431	51.1%	13.8%	35.0%	+6.5	23
1897-11-06	Third Lanark	W 6-0	1538	1359	75.6%	13.2%	11.2%	+12.5	19
1897-11-06	@ Hibernian	L 0-6	1359	1538	11.2%	13.2%	75.6%	-12.5	7
1897-11-06	St. Bernards	W 5-3	1378	1309	67.2%	13.7%	19.1%	+5.5	13
1897-11-06	@ Partick Thistle	L 3-5	1309	1378	19.1%	13.7%	67.2%	-5.5	4
1897-11-06	Rangers	L 1-5	1463	1592	43.2%	13.9%	42.9%	-24.7	16
1897-11-06	@ St. Mirren	W 5-1	1592	1463	42.9%	13.9%	43.2%	+24.7	25
1897-11-13	Partick Thistle	L 2-3	1270	1384	45.3%	13.9%	40.8%	-7.7	6
1897-11-13	@ Clyde	W 3-2	1384	1270	40.8%	13.9%	45.3%	+7.7	16
1897-11-13	Third Lanark	L 2-3	1546	1347	76.8%	13.0%	10.1%	-12.8	13
1897-11-13	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1347	1546	10.1%	13.0%	76.8%	+12.8	10
1897-11-13	Dundee	W 2-0	1550	1424	72.0%	13.4%	14.6%	+5.8	22
1897-11-13	@ Hibernian	L 0-2	1424	1550	14.6%	13.4%	72.0%	-5.8	10
1897-11-20	St. Mirren	D 0-0	1419	1439	57.7%	13.9%	28.4%	-1.5	11
1897-11-20	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1439	1419	28.4%	13.9%	57.7%	+1.5	17
1897-11-20	Hibernian	L 0-3	1392	1556	38.2%	13.9%	48.0%	-20.3	16
1897-11-20	@ Partick Thistle	W 3-0	1556	1392	48.0%	13.9%	38.2%	+20.3	25
1897-11-20	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1304	1533	29.8%	13.7%	56.5%	-17.7	4
1897-11-20	@ St. Bernards	W 5-1	1533	1304	56.5%	13.7%	29.8%	+17.7	16
1897-11-20	Clyde	W 6-1	1360	1262	69.8%	13.5%	16.7%	+12.8	13
1897-11-20	@ Third Lanark	L 1-6	1262	1360	16.7%	13.5%	69.8%	-12.8	6
1897-11-27	Dundee	L 1-5	1249	1417	37.7%	13.9%	48.4%	-21.9	6
1897-11-27	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1417	1249	48.4%	13.9%	37.7%	+21.9	14
1897-11-27	Celtic	L 1-2	1577	1625	54.2%	13.9%	31.9%	-9.6	25
1897-11-27	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1625	1577	31.9%	13.9%	54.2%	+9.6	26
1897-11-27	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1440	1551	45.8%	13.9%	40.2%	+12.7	20
1897-11-27	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1551	1440	40.2%	13.9%	45.8%	-12.7	16
1897-12-04	Third Lanark	W 4-0	1635	1373	80.1%	12.6%	7.3%	+5.6	29
1897-12-04	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1373	1635	7.3%	12.6%	80.1%	-5.6	13
1897-12-04	Hibernian	D 1-1	1439	1567	43.4%	13.9%	42.8%	-0.0	15
1897-12-04	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1567	1439	42.8%	13.9%	43.4%	+0.0	26
1897-12-04	Clyde	W 8-1	1538	1227	82.1%	12.3%	5.7%	+6.0	19
1897-12-04	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-8	1227	1538	5.7%	12.3%	82.1%	-6.0	6
1897-12-04	St. Mirren	W 9-0	1617	1453	74.7%	13.2%	12.1%	+19.8	28
1897-12-04	@ Rangers	L 0-9	1453	1617	12.1%	13.2%	74.7%	-19.8	20
1897-12-04	Partick Thistle	W 9-1	1286	1371	49.4%	13.9%	36.7%	+40.6	7
1897-12-04	@ St. Bernards	L 1-9	1371	1286	36.7%	13.9%	49.4%	-40.6	16
1897-12-11	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1221	1433	31.9%	13.8%	54.3%	-5.7	6
1897-12-11	@ Clyde	W 3-2	1433	1221	54.3%	13.8%	31.9%	+5.7	23
1897-12-11	Rangers	L 0-5	1567	1636	51.5%	13.9%	34.6%	-42.6	26
1897-12-11	@ Hibernian	W 5-0	1636	1567	34.6%	13.9%	51.5%	+42.6	31
1897-12-11	Celtic	L 3-6	1331	1640	21.1%	13.4%	65.6%	-8.0	16
1897-12-11	@ Partick Thistle	W 6-3	1640	1331	65.6%	13.4%	21.1%	+8.0	32
1897-12-11	Dundee	W 4-1	1327	1439	45.6%	13.9%	40.5%	+18.0	10
1897-12-11	@ St. Bernards	L 1-4	1439	1327	40.5%	13.9%	45.6%	-18.1	15
1897-12-11	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-5	1367	1544	36.5%	13.8%	49.7%	-14.3	13
1897-12-11	@ Third Lanark	W 5-2	1544	1367	49.7%	13.8%	36.5%	+14.3	22
1897-12-18	St. Bernards	W 5-1	1648	1345	81.8%	12.3%	5.9%	+3.7	35
1897-12-18	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1345	1648	5.9%	12.3%	81.8%	-3.7	10
1897-12-18	Hibernian	W 3-2	1558	1524	63.8%	13.8%	22.5%	+4.1	25
1897-12-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1524	1558	22.5%	13.8%	63.8%	-4.1	26
1897-12-18	Third Lanark	L 0-1	1439	1353	68.8%	13.6%	17.6%	-12.8	23
1897-12-18	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	1353	1439	17.6%	13.6%	68.8%	+12.8	16
1897-12-25	Celtic	L 1-9	1216	1652	11.5%	12.6%	75.9%	-13.6	6
1897-12-25	@ Clyde	W 9-1	1652	1216	75.9%	12.6%	11.5%	+13.6	38
1897-12-25	Partick Thistle	W 6-2	1562	1323	79.0%	12.8%	8.2%	+4.4	28
1897-12-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-6	1323	1562	8.2%	12.8%	79.0%	-4.4	16
1897-12-25	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1520	1426	69.5%	13.6%	17.0%	+5.8	29
1897-12-25	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1426	1520	17.0%	13.6%	69.5%	-5.8	23
1897-12-25	Dundee	W 5-0	1679	1421	79.9%	12.7%	7.5%	+7.0	34
1897-12-25	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1421	1679	7.5%	12.7%	79.9%	-7.0	15
1897-12-25	St. Bernards	W 6-0	1365	1341	62.8%	13.8%	23.4%	+25.1	19
1897-12-25	@ Third Lanark	L 0-6	1341	1365	23.4%	13.8%	62.8%	-25.1	10
1898-01-01	Third Lanark	W 5-2	1318	1391	51.1%	13.9%	35.0%	+13.8	19
1898-01-01	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-5	1391	1318	35.0%	13.9%	51.1%	-13.8	19
1898-01-01	Clyde	W 3-1	1316	1202	71.1%	13.5%	15.4%	+5.3	13
1898-01-01	@ St. Bernards	L 1-3	1202	1316	15.4%	13.5%	71.1%	-5.3	6
1898-01-03	Hibernian	L 2-4	1197	1526	19.2%	13.3%	67.5%	-5.8	6
1898-01-03	@ Clyde	W 4-2	1526	1197	67.5%	13.3%	19.2%	+5.8	32
1898-01-03	Partick Thistle	W 6-1	1686	1332	83.6%	11.9%	4.5%	+3.5	37
1898-01-03	@ Rangers	L 1-6	1332	1686	4.5%	11.9%	83.6%	-3.5	19
1898-01-15	Dundee	W 2-1	1666	1414	79.6%	12.7%	7.7%	+1.6	41
1898-01-15	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1414	1666	7.7%	12.7%	79.6%	-1.6	15
1898-01-29	Partick Thistle	W 3-1	1667	1328	83.1%	12.0%	4.9%	+1.7	44
1898-01-29	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1328	1667	4.9%	12.0%	83.1%	-1.7	19
1898-01-29	Dundee	W 3-0	1377	1412	55.8%	13.9%	30.3%	+16.6	22
1898-01-29	@ Third Lanark	L 0-3	1412	1377	30.3%	13.9%	55.8%	-16.6	15
1898-02-05	Clyde	W 4-0	1420	1191	78.5%	12.8%	8.7%	+6.6	26
1898-02-05	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1191	1420	8.7%	12.8%	78.5%	-6.6	6
1898-02-12	St. Mirren	W 3-0	1669	1427	79.1%	12.8%	8.1%	+4.7	47
1898-02-12	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1427	1669	8.1%	12.8%	79.1%	-4.7	26
1898-02-12	Rangers	W 2-1	1396	1690	22.6%	13.5%	63.9%	+11.2	18
1898-02-12	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1690	1396	63.9%	13.5%	22.6%	-11.2	37
1898-02-12	Partick Thistle	W 5-2	1393	1327	67.0%	13.7%	19.3%	+8.0	25
1898-02-12	@ Third Lanark	L 2-5	1327	1393	19.3%	13.7%	67.0%	-8.0	19
1898-03-19	St. Bernards	W 8-1	1678	1321	83.7%	11.9%	4.4%	+4.7	40
1898-03-19	@ Rangers	L 1-8	1321	1678	4.4%	11.9%	83.7%	-4.7	13
1898-04-09	Third Lanark	D 0-0	1683	1401	80.9%	12.5%	6.6%	-3.9	41
1898-04-09	@ Rangers	D 0-0	1401	1683	6.6%	12.5%	80.9%	+3.9	26
1898-04-11	Rangers	D 0-0	1674	1679	59.5%	13.9%	26.7%	-1.6	48
1898-04-11	@ Celtic	D 0-0	1679	1674	26.7%	13.9%	59.5%	+1.6	42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1897-11-13	10.13%	Third Lanark	1347	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1546	2
2	1897-12-18	17.65%	Third Lanark	1353	1	@ St. Mirren	1439	0
3	1897-09-25	18.23%	St. Mirren	1448	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1527	2
4	1898-02-12	22.61%	@ Dundee	1396	2	Rangers	1690	1
5	1897-10-23	26.83%	Third Lanark	1341	3	@ St. Bernards	1335	1
6	1897-09-27	27.05%	Celtic	1571	4	@ Rangers	1562	0
7	1897-11-27	31.91%	Celtic	1625	2	@ Hibernian	1577	1
8	1897-10-16	32.89%	Heart of Midlothian	1508	6	@ Dundee	1451	1
9	1897-10-23	33.98%	Hibernian	1529	3	@ St. Mirren	1465	2
10	1897-12-11	34.62%	Rangers	1636	5	@ Hibernian	1567	0
11	1897-10-09	40.20%	Rangers	1532	5	@ Partick Thistle	1422	1
12	1897-11-13	40.79%	Partick Thistle	1384	3	@ Clyde	1270	2
13	1897-09-25	40.83%	@ St. Bernards	1354	3	Hibernian	1500	2
14	1897-09-27	42.55%	Hibernian	1492	3	@ Third Lanark	1365	1
15	1897-11-06	42.85%	Rangers	1592	5	@ St. Mirren	1463	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1897-12-11	42.59	Rangers	5	1636	34.62%	@ Hibernian	0	1567	51.47%
2	1897-12-04	40.61	@ St. Bernards	9	1286	49.35%	Partick Thistle	1	1371	36.73%
3	1897-09-27	39.37	Celtic	4	1571	27.05%	@ Rangers	0	1562	59.10%
4	1897-10-16	36.37	Heart of Midlothian	6	1508	32.89%	@ Dundee	1	1451	53.20%
5	1897-10-16	26.53	Rangers	8	1558	60.07%	@ Clyde	1	1300	26.34%
6	1897-10-09	25.97	Rangers	5	1532	40.20%	@ Partick Thistle	1	1422	45.89%
7	1897-12-25	25.12	@ Third Lanark	6	1365	62.79%	St. Bernards	0	1341	23.43%
8	1897-11-06	24.66	Rangers	5	1592	42.85%	@ St. Mirren	1	1463	43.25%
9	1897-10-23	22.26	@ Dundee	5	1415	61.41%	Partick Thistle	0	1403	24.78%
10	1897-11-27	21.88	Dundee	5	1417	48.44%	@ Clyde	1	1249	37.71%
11	1897-09-25	20.94	Rangers	3	1541	46.61%	@ Third Lanark	0	1386	39.52%
12	1897-11-20	20.32	Hibernian	3	1556	47.98%	@ Partick Thistle	0	1392	38.17%
13	1897-12-04	19.75	@ Rangers	9	1617	74.68%	St. Mirren	0	1453	12.08%
14	1897-09-25	18.51	St. Mirren	4	1448	18.23%	@ Heart of Midlothian	2	1527	68.16%
15	1897-12-11	18.06	@ St. Bernards	4	1327	45.57%	Dundee	1	1439	40.52%
16	1897-10-23	18.04	Third Lanark	3	1341	26.83%	@ St. Bernards	1	1335	59.33%
17	1897-11-20	17.74	Heart of Midlothian	5	1533	56.50%	@ St. Bernards	1	1304	29.80%
18	1898-01-29	16.57	@ Third Lanark	3	1377	55.84%	Dundee	0	1412	30.27%
19	1897-09-04	16.06	@ Dundee	6	1448	72.03%	Clyde	0	1322	14.55%
20	1897-12-11	14.26	Heart of Midlothian	5	1544	49.67%	@ Third Lanark	2	1367	36.50%
21	1898-01-01	13.77	@ Partick Thistle	5	1318	51.06%	Third Lanark	2	1391	35.02%
22	1897-12-25	13.63	Celtic	9	1652	75.91%	@ Clyde	1	1216	11.48%
23	1897-09-27	13.59	Hibernian	3	1492	42.55%	@ Third Lanark	1	1365	43.55%
24	1897-09-20	13.10	Celtic	2	1552	50.73%	@ St. Bernards	0	1367	35.45%
25	1897-09-18	12.89	@ St. Mirren	7	1435	65.91%	St. Bernards	2	1380	20.40%