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1897-98 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

33 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1895-96

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

6.73 points above expected

33 points · 26.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundee

3.55 points below expected

13 points · 16.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic Champion 18 15 3 0 33 56 13 +43 26.27 +6.73
2 Rangers 18 13 3 2 29 71 15 +56 25.08 +3.92
3 Hibernian 18 10 2 6 22 47 29 +18 21.66 +0.34
4 Heart of Midlothian 18 8 4 6 20 54 33 +21 23.53 -3.53
5 Third Lanark 18 8 2 8 18 37 38 -1 13.59 +4.41
6 St. Mirren 18 8 2 8 18 30 36 -6 18.98 -0.98
7 Dundee 18 5 3 10 13 29 36 -7 16.55 -3.55
8 Partick Thistle 18 6 1 11 13 34 64 -30 13.93 -0.93
9 St. Bernards 18 4 1 13 9 35 67 -32 12.13 -3.13
10 Clyde 18 1 3 14 5 21 83 -62 8.28 -3.28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 33 26.27 +6.73
2 Third Lanark 18 13.59 +4.41
3 Rangers 29 25.08 +3.92
4 Hibernian 22 21.66 +0.34
5 Partick Thistle 13 13.93 -0.93

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 13 16.55 -3.55
2 Heart of Midlothian 20 23.53 -3.53
3 Clyde 5 8.28 -3.28
4 St. Bernards 9 12.13 -3.13
5 St. Mirren 18 18.98 -0.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 9 Oct 2 – Jan 3 1 in 54
2 Hibernian 8 Sep 27 – Nov 20 1 in 43
3 Celtic 11 Oct 9 – Feb 12 1 in 31
4 Third Lanark 2 Nov 13 – Nov 20 1 in 26
5 St. Mirren 3 Sep 11 – Sep 25 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Bernards 7 Oct 2 – Nov 20 1 in 47
2 Clyde 9 Nov 13 – Feb 5 1 in 25
3 Heart of Midlothian 2 Sep 25 – Oct 2 1 in 10
4 St. Mirren 2 Oct 16 – Oct 23 1 in 8
5 Dundee 4 Dec 11 – Jan 29 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 18 Sep 4 – Apr 11 1 in 103
2 Clyde 2 Oct 30 – Nov 6 1 in 14
3 St. Mirren 5 Sep 11 – Oct 9 1 in 13
4 Third Lanark 3 Jan 29 – Apr 9 1 in 10
5 Rangers 9 Oct 2 – Jan 3 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 6 Sep 4 – Oct 2 1 in 72
2 St. Bernards 7 Oct 2 – Nov 20 1 in 9
3 Rangers 2 Apr 9 – Apr 11 1 in 8
4 Clyde 14 Oct 9 – Feb 5 1 in 8
5 Hibernian 4 Sep 4 – Sep 25 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Celtic 1766 33 +15 9 8.5 +0.5
Rangers 1782 29 -26 6 7.8 -1.8
Hibernian 1543 22 -64 5 5.8 -0.8
Heart of Midlothian 1604 20 +13 8 7.4 +0.6
Third Lanark 1405 18 +72 7 5.5 +1.5
St. Mirren 1421 18 -30 4 5.6 -1.6
Dundee 1384 13 -55 2 2.6 -0.6
Partick Thistle 1244 13 +16 2 1.9 +0.1
St. Bernards 1274 9 -13 4 3.6 +0.4
Clyde 1083 5 -40 0 1.7 -1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL CLY DUN HOM HIB PT RAN SB SM TL
Celtic —
2-0-0
5.25
2-0-0
4.63
1-1-0
3.23
2-0-0
3.32
2-0-0
5.18
1-1-0
2.78
2-0-0
4.65
1-1-0
4.26
2-0-0
5.01
Clyde
0-0-2
0.49
 —
0-0-2
1.37
0-1-1
0.74
0-0-2
0.79
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
0.77
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.00
0-1-1
2.12
Dundee
0-0-2
1.10
2-0-0
4.35
 —
0-0-2
2.21
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
0.68
0-1-1
3.89
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
3.47
Heart of Midlothian
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
4.99
2-0-0
3.51
 —
1-1-0
3.27
1-0-1
4.29
0-1-1
2.69
2-0-0
4.68
0-0-2
3.68
1-0-1
4.44
Hibernian
0-0-2
2.40
2-0-0
4.93
1-1-0
3.96
0-1-1
2.45
 —
2-0-0
4.02
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
4.27
2-0-0
3.29
2-0-0
4.21
Partick Thistle
0-0-2
0.55
1-1-0
3.86
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.70
 —
0-0-2
1.52
1-0-1
3.72
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
1.86
Rangers
0-1-1
2.94
2-0-0
4.96
1-0-1
5.05
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
4.21
 —
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
3.99
1-1-0
4.64
St. Bernards
0-0-2
1.08
1-0-1
3.67
1-1-0
1.83
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-1
1.45
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
1.19
 —
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-2
2.85
St. Mirren
0-1-1
1.46
2-0-0
4.73
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.04
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
3.53
0-0-2
1.73
2-0-0
4.19
 —
0-0-2
4.05
Third Lanark
0-0-2
0.72
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
1.29
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
3.86
0-1-1
1.09
2-0-0
2.87
2-0-0
1.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +4.8
Allowed 0.86 -3.5
Differential 0.91 +2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%2.78%2.78%2.22%1.67%5.00%21.11%
12.78%4.44%3.33%3.89%1.11%8.89%24.44%
22.78%3.33%2.22%4.44%3.33%2.78%18.89%
32.22%3.89%4.44%——1.11%11.67%
41.67%1.11%3.33%———6.11%
5+5.00%8.89%2.78%1.11%——17.78%
Total21.11%24.44%18.89%11.67%6.11%17.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.30 2.30 +0.00
SD 2.16 2.16 3.52
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
Total44.44%44.44%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 0.72 +2.39
SD 2.37 0.83 2.09
CV 0.76 1.14 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%16.67%22.22%
1—11.11%—5.56%—33.33%50.00%
2——5.56%11.11%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total—11.11%11.11%16.67%11.11%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 4.61 -3.44
SD 0.99 2.45 3.01
CV 0.84 0.53 —
Max 4 9 +2
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.00 -0.39
SD 1.97 1.71 3.09
CV 1.23 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
25.56%—11.11%16.67%5.56%—38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+—22.22%11.11%———33.33%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.83 +1.17
SD 2.28 1.10 2.73
CV 0.76 0.60 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%——11.11%——16.67%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 1.61 +1.00
SD 1.85 1.42 2.83
CV 0.71 0.88 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%33.33%
2————5.56%11.11%16.67%
3—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total5.56%16.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 3.56 -1.67
SD 1.53 2.36 2.99
CV 0.81 0.66 —
Max 5 9 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%———5.56%—16.67%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+22.22%27.78%————50.00%
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.94 0.83 +3.11
SD 2.96 1.10 3.39
CV 0.75 1.32 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1——5.56%5.56%—27.78%38.89%
2————11.11%5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 3.72 -1.78
SD 2.10 2.32 3.64
CV 1.08 0.62 —
Max 9 8 +8
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
15.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.00 -0.33
SD 1.94 2.20 3.14
CV 1.16 1.10 —
Max 7 9 +5
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
25.56%———5.56%11.11%22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
Total27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.11 -0.06
SD 1.98 2.00 3.23
CV 0.97 0.95 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1782 29 25.08 +3.92 90.0% 18 20 23 25 28 30 32
Celtic 1766 33 26.27 +6.73 99.0% 19 20 24 26 29 31 36
Heart of Midlothian 1604 20 23.53 -3.53 18.0% 17 18 21 23 26 29 33
Hibernian 1543 22 21.66 +0.34 64.0% 12 17 20 21 24 27 31
St. Mirren 1421 18 18.98 -0.98 46.0% 10 13 17 19 21 25 28
Third Lanark 1405 18 13.59 +4.41 93.0% 5 9 12 13 15 19 23
Dundee 1384 13 16.55 -3.55 20.0% 8 10 15 17 18 22 24
St. Bernards 1274 9 12.13 -3.13 17.0% 4 8 10 12 14 16 18
Partick Thistle 1244 13 13.93 -0.93 41.0% 5 8 11 14 16 20 21
Clyde 1083 5 8.28 -3.28 17.0% 0 4 6 8 10 13 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 24.5% * Strong Edge: 24.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Clear Edge
55.56%13.33%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
113 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
086.68300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.02 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.76+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Celtic, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.58 * Some Luck: 2.58 to 3.87 * Lucky: 3.87 to 5.16 * Wild Swing: 5.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.82 * Close: 0.82 to 1.22 * Off: 1.22 to 1.63 * Way Off: 1.63 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.57 points
Some Luck
03.228
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.022.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
17.00%
St. Bernards
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 73% * Wide Edge: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 93.5% * Strong Edge: 93.5% to 95.5% * Dominant: 95.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 61% * Very Frequent: 61% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17.5% * Occasional: 17.5% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 225.62
2.18
Strong Separation
11.852.12.353
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
34%
Few
0%33%100%
Blowouts
Expected
44%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.55 * Some Carryover: 0.55 to 0.66 * Strong Carryover: 0.66 to 0.78 * Near-Lock: 0.78 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20% * As Expected: 20% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.44
Highly Predictable
00.472
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.26
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.82
Near-Lock
00.550.781
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1550.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Celtic42.00%37.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%————
Rangers35.00%29.00%20.00%11.00%5.00%—————
Hibernian7.00%9.00%26.00%34.00%19.00%3.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Heart of Midlothian14.00%19.00%35.00%21.00%8.00%3.00%————
Third Lanark——1.00%1.00%7.00%13.00%30.00%28.00%16.00%4.00%
St. Mirren2.00%4.00%8.00%18.00%34.00%19.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%—
Dundee—2.00%1.00%7.00%15.00%36.00%20.00%10.00%7.00%2.00%
Partick Thistle————7.00%22.00%21.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%
St. Bernards————2.00%3.00%17.00%31.00%35.00%12.00%
Clyde——————2.00%6.00%20.00%72.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Celtic 100%
Clyde 100%
Dundee 100%
Heart of Midlothian 100%
Hibernian 100%
Partick Thistle 100%
Rangers 100%
St. Bernards 100%
St. Mirren 100%
Third Lanark 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1897-09-04 Hibernian W 4-149.9 1570 1540 63.23% 14.09% 22.67%+1.03 +21.5 2
1897-09-04 @ Celtic L 1-449.9 1540 1570 22.67% 14.09% 63.23%-1.03 -21.5 0
1897-09-04 Clyde W 6-026.9 1471 1240 77.83% 13.78% 8.39%+2.80 +19.1 2
1897-09-04 @ Dundee L 0-626.9 1240 1471 8.39% 13.78% 77.83%-2.80 -19.1 0
1897-09-04 Heart of Midlothian W 3-260.9 1401 1591 34.55% 14.10% 51.35%-0.92 +17.2 2
1897-09-04 @ Partick Thistle L 2-360.9 1591 1401 51.35% 14.10% 34.55%+0.92 -17.2 0
1897-09-04 Rangers L 2-450.4 1344 1579 28.86% 14.06% 57.08%-1.31 -16.9 0
1897-09-04 @ St. Bernards W 4-250.4 1579 1344 57.08% 14.06% 28.86%+1.31 +16.9 2
1897-09-04 St. Mirren W 2-045.7 1286 1482 33.79% 14.10% 52.11%-0.97 +36.7 2
1897-09-04 @ Third Lanark L 0-245.7 1482 1286 52.11% 14.10% 33.79%+0.97 -36.7 0
1897-09-11 Third Lanark D 1-155.0 1221 1322 47.00% 14.14% 38.85%-0.13 -0.7 1
1897-09-11 @ Clyde D 1-155.0 1322 1221 38.85% 14.14% 47.00%+0.13 +0.7 3
1897-09-11 St. Bernards D 0-056.0 1490 1327 74.15% 13.92% 11.93%+2.21 -6.5 3
1897-09-11 @ Dundee D 0-056.0 1327 1490 11.93% 13.92% 74.15%-2.21 +6.5 1
1897-09-11 Celtic D 0-067.5 1574 1592 57.85% 14.12% 28.02%+0.61 -3.0 1
1897-09-11 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-067.5 1592 1574 28.02% 14.12% 57.85%-0.61 +3.0 3
1897-09-11 Hibernian W 1-048.3 1596 1518 67.77% 14.04% 18.19%+1.45 +7.6 4
1897-09-11 @ Rangers L 0-148.3 1518 1596 18.19% 14.04% 67.77%-1.45 -7.6 0
1897-09-11 Partick Thistle W 1-041.0 1445 1418 62.89% 14.09% 23.01%+1.01 +9.4 2
1897-09-11 @ St. Mirren L 0-141.0 1418 1445 23.01% 14.09% 62.89%-1.01 -9.4 2
1897-09-18 Heart of Midlothian D 1-167.4 1511 1571 52.54% 14.14% 33.32%+0.23 -1.7 1
1897-09-18 @ Hibernian D 1-167.4 1571 1511 33.32% 14.14% 52.54%-0.23 +1.7 2
1897-09-18 St. Bernards W 7-236.9 1455 1334 71.26% 13.99% 14.76%+1.83 +19.1 4
1897-09-18 @ St. Mirren L 2-736.9 1334 1455 14.76% 13.99% 71.26%-1.83 -19.1 1
1897-09-20 Rangers D 2-273.8 1573 1604 56.24% 14.13% 29.63%+0.49 -1.8 3
1897-09-20 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-273.8 1604 1573 29.63% 14.13% 56.24%-0.49 +1.7 5
1897-09-20 Celtic L 0-240.9 1315 1595 23.79% 14.01% 62.20%-1.71 -18.3 1
1897-09-20 @ St. Bernards W 2-040.9 1595 1315 62.20% 14.01% 23.79%+1.71 +18.3 5
1897-09-25 Clyde W 6-131.8 1613 1220 83.16% 13.34% 3.51%+4.23 +5.6 7
1897-09-25 @ Celtic L 1-631.8 1220 1613 3.51% 13.34% 83.16%-4.23 -5.6 1
1897-09-25 St. Mirren L 2-467.0 1571 1474 69.40% 14.02% 16.58%+1.62 -37.7 3
1897-09-25 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-267.0 1474 1571 16.58% 14.02% 69.40%-1.62 +37.7 6
1897-09-25 Dundee W 3-147.4 1408 1484 50.54% 14.14% 35.32%+0.10 +22.6 4
1897-09-25 @ Partick Thistle L 1-347.4 1484 1408 35.32% 14.14% 50.54%-0.10 -22.6 3
1897-09-25 Hibernian W 3-255.8 1296 1509 31.65% 14.08% 54.26%-1.11 +18.1 3
1897-09-25 @ St. Bernards L 2-355.8 1509 1296 54.26% 14.08% 31.65%+1.11 -18.1 1
1897-09-25 Rangers L 0-339.7 1323 1606 23.56% 14.00% 62.44%-1.73 -26.4 3
1897-09-25 @ Third Lanark W 3-039.7 1606 1323 62.44% 14.00% 23.56%+1.73 +26.4 7
1897-09-27 Celtic L 0-459.6 1632 1619 61.40% 14.11% 24.50%+0.88 -81.5 7
1897-09-27 @ Rangers W 4-059.6 1619 1632 24.50% 14.11% 61.40%-0.88 +81.6 9
1897-09-27 Hibernian L 1-344.2 1297 1491 34.07% 14.10% 51.83%-0.95 -21.9 3
1897-09-27 @ Third Lanark W 3-144.2 1491 1297 51.83% 14.10% 34.07%+0.95 +21.9 3
1897-10-02 St. Bernards W 4-246.7 1215 1314 47.26% 14.14% 38.60%-0.11 +21.8 3
1897-10-02 @ Clyde L 2-446.7 1314 1215 38.60% 14.14% 47.26%+0.11 -21.8 3
1897-10-02 Third Lanark W 4-240.1 1461 1275 75.53% 13.87% 10.60%+2.41 +6.7 5
1897-10-02 @ Dundee L 2-440.1 1275 1461 10.60% 13.87% 75.53%-2.41 -6.7 3
1897-10-02 Partick Thistle W 4-247.8 1513 1431 68.09% 14.04% 17.87%+1.49 +10.9 5
1897-10-02 @ Hibernian L 2-447.8 1431 1513 17.87% 14.04% 68.09%-1.49 -10.9 4
1897-10-02 Heart of Midlothian W 2-047.3 1550 1533 61.82% 14.10% 24.07%+0.92 +18.5 9
1897-10-02 @ Rangers L 0-247.3 1533 1550 24.07% 14.10% 61.82%-0.92 -18.5 3
1897-10-02 Celtic D 0-068.5 1511 1700 34.76% 14.10% 51.14%-0.90 +1.6 7
1897-10-02 @ St. Mirren D 0-068.5 1700 1511 51.14% 14.10% 34.76%+0.90 -1.6 10
1897-10-09 St. Bernards W 5-134.1 1515 1292 77.41% 13.80% 8.79%+2.72 +11.4 5
1897-10-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-534.1 1292 1515 8.79% 13.80% 77.41%-2.72 -11.4 3
1897-10-09 Clyde W 5-027.5 1524 1237 80.12% 13.65% 6.23%+3.30 +12.0 7
1897-10-09 @ Hibernian L 0-527.5 1237 1524 6.23% 13.65% 80.12%-3.30 -12.0 3
1897-10-09 Rangers L 1-549.5 1420 1569 40.25% 14.13% 45.62%-0.55 -46.2 4
1897-10-09 @ Partick Thistle W 5-149.5 1569 1420 45.62% 14.13% 40.25%+0.55 +46.2 11
1897-10-09 Dundee W 2-147.5 1513 1468 64.69% 14.08% 21.23%+1.16 +8.3 9
1897-10-09 @ St. Mirren L 1-247.5 1468 1513 21.23% 14.08% 64.69%-1.16 -8.3 5
1897-10-09 Celtic L 0-140.9 1268 1699 11.55% 13.72% 74.73%-3.03 -4.9 3
1897-10-09 @ Third Lanark W 1-040.9 1699 1268 74.73% 13.72% 11.55%+3.03 +4.9 12
1897-10-16 Rangers L 1-833.8 1225 1615 14.12% 13.81% 72.07%-2.68 -29.8 3
1897-10-16 @ Clyde W 8-133.8 1615 1225 72.07% 13.81% 14.12%+2.68 +29.8 13
1897-10-16 Heart of Midlothian L 1-651.6 1460 1526 51.76% 14.14% 34.10%+0.18 -70.7 5
1897-10-16 @ Dundee W 6-151.6 1526 1460 34.10% 14.14% 51.76%-0.18 +70.7 7
1897-10-16 St. Bernards W 6-132.7 1536 1281 78.86% 13.73% 7.41%+3.01 +11.8 9
1897-10-16 @ Hibernian L 1-632.7 1281 1536 7.41% 13.73% 78.86%-3.01 -11.8 3
1897-10-16 St. Mirren W 1-048.7 1374 1521 40.46% 14.13% 45.41%-0.54 +17.2 6
1897-10-16 @ Partick Thistle L 0-148.7 1521 1374 45.41% 14.13% 40.46%+0.54 -17.2 9
1897-10-23 Heart of Midlothian W 3-258.6 1704 1597 70.17% 14.01% 15.82%+1.71 +6.0 14
1897-10-23 @ Celtic L 2-358.6 1597 1704 15.82% 14.01% 70.17%-1.71 -6.0 7
1897-10-23 Partick Thistle W 5-034.0 1389 1391 59.69% 14.12% 26.20%+0.75 +46.8 7
1897-10-23 @ Dundee L 0-534.0 1391 1389 26.20% 14.12% 59.69%-0.75 -46.8 6
1897-10-23 Clyde W 7-027.5 1645 1195 84.31% 13.14% 2.55%+4.74 +6.8 15
1897-10-23 @ Rangers L 0-727.5 1195 1645 2.55% 13.14% 84.31%-4.74 -6.8 3
1897-10-23 Third Lanark L 1-349.4 1269 1263 60.60% 14.11% 25.29%+0.82 -36.7 3
1897-10-23 @ St. Bernards W 3-149.4 1263 1269 25.29% 14.11% 60.60%-0.82 +36.8 5
1897-10-23 Hibernian L 2-364.1 1504 1548 54.72% 14.14% 31.14%+0.38 -18.2 9
1897-10-23 @ St. Mirren W 3-264.1 1548 1504 31.14% 14.14% 54.72%-0.38 +18.2 11
1897-10-30 Dundee W 2-041.7 1591 1436 73.62% 13.93% 12.45%+2.13 +10.0 9
1897-10-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-241.7 1436 1591 12.45% 13.93% 73.62%-2.13 -10.0 7
1897-10-30 Clyde D 1-155.0 1344 1188 73.71% 13.93% 12.37%+2.14 -5.7 7
1897-10-30 @ Partick Thistle D 1-155.0 1188 1344 12.37% 13.93% 73.71%-2.14 +5.7 4
1897-10-30 St. Mirren L 1-242.1 1233 1486 26.76% 14.04% 59.20%-1.47 -10.2 3
1897-10-30 @ St. Bernards W 2-142.1 1486 1233 59.20% 14.04% 26.76%+1.47 +10.2 11
1897-11-06 Heart of Midlothian D 2-261.6 1194 1601 13.00% 13.77% 73.22%-2.83 +4.2 5
1897-11-06 @ Clyde D 2-261.6 1601 1194 73.22% 13.77% 13.00%+2.83 -4.2 10
1897-11-06 Celtic L 1-253.6 1426 1710 23.42% 14.00% 62.58%-1.74 -9.0 7
1897-11-06 @ Dundee W 2-153.6 1710 1426 62.58% 14.00% 23.42%+1.74 +9.0 16
1897-11-06 Third Lanark W 6-029.8 1566 1300 79.31% 13.70% 6.99%+3.11 +16.0 13
1897-11-06 @ Hibernian L 0-629.8 1300 1566 6.99% 13.70% 79.31%-3.11 -16.0 5
1897-11-06 St. Bernards W 5-342.9 1339 1222 70.90% 13.99% 15.11%+1.79 +8.8 9
1897-11-06 @ Partick Thistle L 3-542.9 1222 1339 15.11% 13.99% 70.90%-1.79 -8.8 3
1897-11-06 Rangers L 1-554.6 1496 1652 39.27% 14.12% 46.61%-0.61 -45.2 11
1897-11-06 @ St. Mirren W 5-154.6 1652 1496 46.61% 14.12% 39.27%+0.61 +45.2 17
1897-11-13 Partick Thistle L 2-348.5 1198 1347 40.16% 14.13% 45.71%-0.55 -13.8 5
1897-11-13 @ Clyde W 3-248.5 1347 1198 45.71% 14.13% 40.16%+0.55 +13.8 11
1897-11-13 Third Lanark L 2-365.7 1597 1284 80.99% 13.58% 5.43%+3.52 -27.2 10
1897-11-13 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-265.7 1284 1597 5.43% 13.58% 80.99%-3.52 +27.2 7
1897-11-13 Dundee W 2-040.5 1582 1417 74.25% 13.91% 11.83%+2.22 +9.6 15
1897-11-13 @ Hibernian L 0-240.5 1417 1582 11.83% 13.91% 74.25%-2.22 -9.6 7
1897-11-20 St. Mirren D 0-057.0 1407 1451 54.70% 14.14% 31.16%+0.38 -2.3 8
1897-11-20 @ Dundee D 0-057.0 1451 1407 31.16% 14.14% 54.70%-0.38 +2.3 12
1897-11-20 Hibernian L 0-342.4 1361 1591 29.51% 14.07% 56.42%-1.26 -32.3 11
1897-11-20 @ Partick Thistle W 3-042.4 1591 1361 56.42% 14.07% 29.51%+1.26 +32.3 17
1897-11-20 Heart of Midlothian L 1-536.0 1214 1570 16.73% 13.88% 69.38%-2.37 -20.9 3
1897-11-20 @ St. Bernards W 5-136.0 1570 1214 69.38% 13.88% 16.73%+2.37 +20.9 12
1897-11-20 Clyde W 6-131.3 1311 1184 71.71% 13.98% 14.31%+1.89 +22.2 9
1897-11-20 @ Third Lanark L 1-631.3 1184 1311 14.31% 13.98% 71.71%-1.89 -22.2 5
1897-11-27 Dundee L 1-536.9 1162 1405 27.96% 14.05% 57.99%-1.38 -33.5 5
1897-11-27 @ Clyde W 5-136.9 1405 1162 57.99% 14.05% 27.96%+1.38 +33.5 10
1897-11-27 Celtic L 1-264.8 1624 1719 47.87% 14.14% 37.98%-0.07 -17.0 17
1897-11-27 @ Hibernian W 2-164.8 1719 1624 37.98% 14.14% 47.87%+0.07 +17.0 18
1897-11-27 Heart of Midlothian W 3-155.4 1453 1590 41.89% 14.13% 43.98%-0.45 +27.3 14
1897-11-27 @ St. Mirren L 1-355.4 1590 1453 43.98% 14.13% 41.89%+0.45 -27.3 12
1897-12-04 Third Lanark W 4-037.2 1736 1334 83.37% 13.31% 3.33%+4.31 +5.2 20
1897-12-04 @ Celtic L 0-437.2 1334 1736 3.33% 13.31% 83.37%-4.31 -5.2 9
1897-12-04 Hibernian D 1-166.1 1438 1607 37.56% 14.12% 48.32%-0.72 +0.9 11
1897-12-04 @ Dundee D 1-166.1 1607 1438 48.32% 14.12% 37.56%+0.72 -0.9 18
1897-12-04 Clyde W 8-127.4 1563 1128 84.02% 13.20% 2.78%+4.60 +6.1 14
1897-12-04 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-827.4 1128 1563 2.78% 13.20% 84.02%-4.60 -6.1 5
1897-12-04 St. Mirren W 9-041.3 1697 1480 77.13% 13.81% 9.05%+2.68 +30.2 19
1897-12-04 @ Rangers L 0-941.3 1480 1697 9.05% 13.81% 77.13%-2.68 -30.2 14
1897-12-04 Partick Thistle W 9-138.3 1193 1329 42.03% 14.13% 43.84%-0.44 +94.4 5
1897-12-04 @ St. Bernards L 1-938.3 1329 1193 43.84% 14.13% 42.03%+0.44 -94.4 11
1897-12-11 St. Mirren L 2-342.2 1122 1450 19.13% 13.93% 66.94%-2.13 -7.1 5
1897-12-11 @ Clyde W 3-242.2 1450 1122 66.94% 13.93% 19.13%+2.13 +7.1 16
1897-12-11 Rangers L 0-554.6 1606 1727 44.13% 14.14% 41.74%-0.31 -74.0 18
1897-12-11 @ Hibernian W 5-054.6 1727 1606 41.74% 14.14% 44.13%+0.31 +74.0 21
1897-12-11 Celtic L 3-646.7 1235 1741 7.79% 13.52% 78.69%-3.70 -6.2 11
1897-12-11 @ Partick Thistle W 6-346.7 1741 1235 78.69% 13.52% 7.79%+3.70 +6.2 22
1897-12-11 Dundee W 4-145.3 1287 1439 39.76% 14.13% 46.11%-0.58 +40.3 7
1897-12-11 @ St. Bernards L 1-445.3 1439 1287 46.11% 14.13% 39.76%+0.58 -40.3 11
1897-12-11 Heart of Midlothian L 2-547.6 1328 1569 28.20% 14.06% 57.74%-1.36 -22.7 9
1897-12-11 @ Third Lanark W 5-247.6 1569 1328 57.74% 14.06% 28.20%+1.36 +22.7 16
1897-12-18 St. Bernards W 5-141.1 1747 1327 83.73% 13.25% 3.02%+4.47 +4.0 24
1897-12-18 @ Celtic L 1-541.1 1327 1747 3.02% 13.25% 83.73%-4.47 -4.0 7
1897-12-18 Hibernian W 3-256.0 1592 1532 66.15% 14.06% 19.78%+1.30 +7.4 18
1897-12-18 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-356.0 1532 1592 19.78% 14.06% 66.15%-1.30 -7.4 18
1897-12-18 Third Lanark L 0-153.7 1457 1306 73.41% 13.94% 12.66%+2.10 -27.4 16
1897-12-18 @ St. Mirren W 1-053.7 1306 1457 12.66% 13.94% 73.41%-2.10 +27.4 11
1897-12-25 Celtic L 1-930.8 1115 1751 3.87% 13.10% 83.03%-4.84 -9.6 5
1897-12-25 @ Clyde W 9-130.8 1751 1115 83.03% 13.10% 3.87%+4.84 +9.6 26
1897-12-25 Partick Thistle W 6-236.2 1599 1228 82.64% 13.41% 3.95%+4.04 +4.4 20
1897-12-25 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-636.2 1228 1599 3.95% 13.41% 82.64%-4.04 -4.4 11
1897-12-25 St. Mirren W 3-143.9 1524 1430 69.16% 14.02% 16.81%+1.60 +11.5 20
1897-12-25 @ Hibernian L 1-343.9 1430 1524 16.81% 14.02% 69.16%-1.60 -11.5 16
1897-12-25 Dundee W 5-040.0 1801 1399 83.37% 13.31% 3.33%+4.31 +6.4 23
1897-12-25 @ Rangers L 0-540.0 1399 1801 3.33% 13.31% 83.37%-4.31 -6.4 11
1897-12-25 St. Bernards W 6-031.3 1333 1323 61.00% 14.11% 24.90%+0.85 +53.1 13
1897-12-25 @ Third Lanark L 0-631.3 1323 1333 24.90% 14.11% 61.00%-0.85 -53.1 7
1898-01-01 Third Lanark W 5-248.1 1224 1386 38.39% 14.12% 47.49%-0.67 +35.8 13
1898-01-01 @ Partick Thistle L 2-548.1 1386 1224 47.49% 14.12% 38.39%+0.67 -35.8 13
1898-01-01 Clyde W 3-134.3 1270 1106 74.23% 13.91% 11.85%+2.22 +8.3 9
1898-01-01 @ St. Bernards L 1-334.3 1106 1270 11.85% 13.91% 74.23%-2.22 -8.3 5
1898-01-03 Hibernian L 2-438.9 1097 1536 11.09% 13.70% 75.21%-3.10 -6.9 5
1898-01-03 @ Clyde W 4-238.9 1536 1097 75.21% 13.70% 11.09%+3.10 +6.9 22
1898-01-03 Partick Thistle W 6-139.1 1808 1260 85.75% 12.77% 1.48%+5.60 +2.4 25
1898-01-03 @ Rangers L 1-639.1 1260 1808 1.48% 12.77% 85.75%-5.60 -2.4 13
1898-01-15 Dundee W 2-148.1 1761 1393 82.57% 13.41% 4.01%+4.01 +1.7 28
1898-01-15 @ Celtic L 1-248.1 1393 1761 4.01% 13.41% 82.57%-4.01 -1.7 11
1898-01-29 Partick Thistle W 3-141.6 1762 1257 85.18% 12.94% 1.88%+5.22 +1.4 30
1898-01-29 @ Celtic L 1-341.6 1257 1762 1.88% 12.94% 85.18%-5.22 -1.3 13
1898-01-29 Dundee W 3-037.1 1350 1391 55.06% 14.13% 30.80%+0.41 +33.6 15
1898-01-29 @ Third Lanark L 0-337.1 1391 1350 30.80% 14.13% 55.06%-0.41 -33.6 11
1898-02-05 Clyde W 4-025.7 1418 1090 81.47% 13.53% 4.99%+3.66 +7.8 18
1898-02-05 @ St. Mirren L 0-425.7 1090 1418 4.99% 13.53% 81.47%-3.66 -7.8 5
1898-02-12 St. Mirren W 3-042.7 1764 1426 81.75% 13.51% 4.74%+3.74 +5.7 32
1898-02-12 @ Celtic L 0-342.7 1426 1764 4.74% 13.51% 81.75%-3.74 -5.7 18
1898-02-12 Rangers W 2-170.1 1357 1810 10.30% 13.66% 76.03%-3.23 +26.7 13
1898-02-12 @ Dundee L 1-270.1 1810 1357 76.03% 13.66% 10.30%+3.23 -26.7 25
1898-02-12 Partick Thistle W 5-238.3 1384 1256 71.76% 13.98% 14.27%+1.89 +12.1 17
1898-02-12 @ Third Lanark L 2-538.3 1256 1384 14.27% 13.98% 71.76%-1.89 -12.1 13
1898-03-19 St. Bernards W 8-137.5 1783 1279 85.17% 12.94% 1.89%+5.22 +4.1 27
1898-03-19 @ Rangers L 1-837.5 1279 1783 1.89% 12.94% 85.17%-5.22 -4.1 9
1898-04-09 Third Lanark D 0-068.1 1788 1396 83.13% 13.34% 3.53%+4.22 -8.6 28
1898-04-09 @ Rangers D 0-068.1 1396 1788 3.53% 13.34% 83.13%-4.22 +8.6 18
1898-04-11 Rangers D 0-071.6 1769 1779 58.82% 14.12% 27.06%+0.68 -3.2 33
1898-04-11 @ Celtic D 0-071.6 1779 1769 27.06% 14.12% 58.82%-0.68 +3.2 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1897-11-13 5.43% Third Lanark 1284 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1597 2
2 1898-02-12 10.30% @ Dundee 1357 2 Rangers 1810 1
3 1897-12-18 12.66% Third Lanark 1306 1 @ St. Mirren 1457 0
4 1897-09-25 16.58% St. Mirren 1474 4 @ Heart of Midlothian 1571 2
5 1897-09-27 24.50% Celtic 1619 4 @ Rangers 1632 0
6 1897-10-23 25.29% Third Lanark 1263 3 @ St. Bernards 1269 1
7 1897-10-23 31.14% Hibernian 1548 3 @ St. Mirren 1504 2
8 1897-09-25 31.65% @ St. Bernards 1296 3 Hibernian 1509 2
9 1897-09-04 33.79% @ Third Lanark 1286 2 St. Mirren 1482 0
10 1897-10-16 34.10% Heart of Midlothian 1526 6 @ Dundee 1460 1
11 1897-09-04 34.55% @ Partick Thistle 1401 3 Heart of Midlothian 1591 2
12 1897-11-27 37.98% Celtic 1719 2 @ Hibernian 1624 1
13 1898-01-01 38.39% @ Partick Thistle 1224 5 Third Lanark 1386 2
14 1897-12-11 39.76% @ St. Bernards 1287 4 Dundee 1439 1
15 1897-10-16 40.46% @ Partick Thistle 1374 1 St. Mirren 1521 0
16 1897-12-11 41.74% Rangers 1727 5 @ Hibernian 1606 0
17 1897-11-27 41.89% @ St. Mirren 1453 3 Heart of Midlothian 1590 1
18 1897-12-04 42.03% @ St. Bernards 1193 9 Partick Thistle 1329 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1897-12-04 94.42 @ St. Bernards 9 1193 42.03% Partick Thistle 1 1329 43.84% 14.13%
2 1897-09-27 81.56 Celtic 4 1619 24.50% @ Rangers 0 1632 61.40% 14.11%
3 1897-12-11 74.02 Rangers 5 1727 41.74% @ Hibernian 0 1606 44.13% 14.14%
4 1897-10-16 70.71 Heart of Midlothian 6 1526 34.10% @ Dundee 1 1460 51.76% 14.14%
5 1897-12-25 53.10 @ Third Lanark 6 1333 61.00% St. Bernards 0 1323 24.90% 14.11%
6 1897-10-23 46.81 @ Dundee 5 1389 59.69% Partick Thistle 0 1391 26.20% 14.12%
7 1897-10-09 46.23 Rangers 5 1569 45.62% @ Partick Thistle 1 1420 40.25% 14.13%
8 1897-11-06 45.25 Rangers 5 1652 46.61% @ St. Mirren 1 1496 39.27% 14.12%
9 1897-12-11 40.29 @ St. Bernards 4 1287 39.76% Dundee 1 1439 46.11% 14.13%
10 1897-09-25 37.70 St. Mirren 4 1474 16.58% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1571 69.40% 14.02%
11 1897-10-23 36.75 Third Lanark 3 1263 25.29% @ St. Bernards 1 1269 60.60% 14.11%
12 1897-09-04 36.72 @ Third Lanark 2 1286 33.79% St. Mirren 0 1482 52.11% 14.10%
13 1898-01-01 35.81 @ Partick Thistle 5 1224 38.39% Third Lanark 2 1386 47.49% 14.12%
14 1898-01-29 33.61 @ Third Lanark 3 1350 55.06% Dundee 0 1391 30.80% 14.13%
15 1897-11-27 33.52 Dundee 5 1405 57.99% @ Clyde 1 1162 27.96% 14.05%
16 1897-11-20 32.32 Hibernian 3 1591 56.42% @ Partick Thistle 0 1361 29.51% 14.07%
17 1897-12-04 30.23 @ Rangers 9 1697 77.13% St. Mirren 0 1480 9.05% 13.81%
18 1897-10-16 29.84 Rangers 8 1615 72.07% @ Clyde 1 1225 14.12% 13.81%
19 1897-12-18 27.38 Third Lanark 1 1306 12.66% @ St. Mirren 0 1457 73.41% 13.94%
20 1897-11-27 27.34 @ St. Mirren 3 1453 41.89% Heart of Midlothian 1 1590 43.98% 14.13%
21 1897-11-13 27.20 Third Lanark 3 1284 5.43% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1597 80.99% 13.58%
22 1898-02-12 26.74 @ Dundee 2 1357 10.30% Rangers 1 1810 76.03% 13.66%
23 1897-09-25 26.37 Rangers 3 1606 62.44% @ Third Lanark 0 1323 23.56% 14.00%
24 1897-12-11 22.66 Heart of Midlothian 5 1569 57.74% @ Third Lanark 2 1328 28.20% 14.06%
25 1897-09-25 22.60 @ Partick Thistle 3 1408 50.54% Dundee 1 1484 35.32% 14.14%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1897-09-20 73.8 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1573 56.24% Rangers 2 1604 29.63% 14.13%
2 1898-04-11 71.6 @ Celtic 0 1769 58.82% Rangers 0 1779 27.06% 14.12%
3 1898-02-12 70.1 @ Dundee 2 1357 10.30% Rangers 1 1810 76.03% 13.66%
4 1897-10-02 68.5 @ St. Mirren 0 1511 34.76% Celtic 0 1700 51.14% 14.10%
5 1898-04-09 68.1 @ Rangers 0 1788 83.13% Third Lanark 0 1396 3.53% 13.34%
6 1897-09-11 67.5 @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1574 57.85% Celtic 0 1592 28.02% 14.12%
7 1897-09-18 67.4 @ Hibernian 1 1511 52.54% Heart of Midlothian 1 1571 33.32% 14.14%
8 1897-09-25 67.0 St. Mirren 4 1474 16.58% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1571 69.40% 14.02%
9 1897-12-04 66.1 @ Dundee 1 1438 37.56% Hibernian 1 1607 48.32% 14.12%
10 1897-11-13 65.7 Third Lanark 3 1284 5.43% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1597 80.99% 13.58%
11 1897-11-27 64.8 Celtic 2 1719 37.98% @ Hibernian 1 1624 47.87% 14.14%
12 1897-10-23 64.1 Hibernian 3 1548 31.14% @ St. Mirren 2 1504 54.72% 14.14%
13 1897-11-06 61.6 @ Clyde 2 1194 13.00% Heart of Midlothian 2 1601 73.22% 13.77%
14 1897-09-04 60.9 @ Partick Thistle 3 1401 34.55% Heart of Midlothian 2 1591 51.35% 14.10%
15 1897-09-27 59.6 Celtic 4 1619 24.50% @ Rangers 0 1632 61.40% 14.11%
16 1897-10-23 58.6 @ Celtic 3 1704 70.17% Heart of Midlothian 2 1597 15.82% 14.01%
17 1897-11-20 57.0 @ Dundee 0 1407 54.70% St. Mirren 0 1451 31.16% 14.14%
18 1897-09-11 56.0 @ Dundee 0 1490 74.15% St. Bernards 0 1327 11.93% 13.92%
19 1897-12-18 56.0 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1592 66.15% Hibernian 2 1532 19.78% 14.06%
20 1897-09-25 55.8 @ St. Bernards 3 1296 31.65% Hibernian 2 1509 54.26% 14.08%
21 1897-11-27 55.4 @ St. Mirren 3 1453 41.89% Heart of Midlothian 1 1590 43.98% 14.13%
22 1897-09-11 55.0 @ Clyde 1 1221 47.00% Third Lanark 1 1322 38.85% 14.14%
23 1897-10-30 55.0 @ Partick Thistle 1 1344 73.71% Clyde 1 1188 12.37% 13.93%
24 1897-11-06 54.6 Rangers 5 1652 46.61% @ St. Mirren 1 1496 39.27% 14.12%
25 1897-12-11 54.6 Rangers 5 1727 41.74% @ Hibernian 0 1606 44.13% 14.14%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1898-02-05 25.7 @ St. Mirren 4 1418 81.47% Clyde 0 1090 4.99% 13.53%
2 1897-09-04 26.9 @ Dundee 6 1471 77.83% Clyde 0 1240 8.39% 13.78%
3 1897-12-04 27.4 @ Heart of Midlothian 8 1563 84.02% Clyde 1 1128 2.78% 13.20%
4 1897-10-09 27.5 @ Hibernian 5 1524 80.12% Clyde 0 1237 6.23% 13.65%
5 1897-10-23 27.5 @ Rangers 7 1645 84.31% Clyde 0 1195 2.55% 13.14%
6 1897-11-06 29.8 @ Hibernian 6 1566 79.31% Third Lanark 0 1300 6.99% 13.70%
7 1897-12-25 30.8 Celtic 9 1751 83.03% @ Clyde 1 1115 3.87% 13.10%
8 1897-11-20 31.3 @ Third Lanark 6 1311 71.71% Clyde 1 1184 14.31% 13.98%
9 1897-12-25 31.3 @ Third Lanark 6 1333 61.00% St. Bernards 0 1323 24.90% 14.11%
10 1897-09-25 31.8 @ Celtic 6 1613 83.16% Clyde 1 1220 3.51% 13.34%
11 1897-10-16 32.7 @ Hibernian 6 1536 78.86% St. Bernards 1 1281 7.41% 13.73%
12 1897-10-16 33.8 Rangers 8 1615 72.07% @ Clyde 1 1225 14.12% 13.81%
13 1897-10-23 34.0 @ Dundee 5 1389 59.69% Partick Thistle 0 1391 26.20% 14.12%
14 1897-10-09 34.1 @ Heart of Midlothian 5 1515 77.41% St. Bernards 1 1292 8.79% 13.80%
15 1898-01-01 34.3 @ St. Bernards 3 1270 74.23% Clyde 1 1106 11.85% 13.91%
16 1897-11-20 36.0 Heart of Midlothian 5 1570 69.38% @ St. Bernards 1 1214 16.73% 13.88%
17 1897-12-25 36.2 @ Heart of Midlothian 6 1599 82.64% Partick Thistle 2 1228 3.95% 13.41%
18 1897-09-18 36.9 @ St. Mirren 7 1455 71.26% St. Bernards 2 1334 14.76% 13.99%
19 1897-11-27 36.9 Dundee 5 1405 57.99% @ Clyde 1 1162 27.96% 14.05%
20 1898-01-29 37.1 @ Third Lanark 3 1350 55.06% Dundee 0 1391 30.80% 14.13%
21 1897-12-04 37.2 @ Celtic 4 1736 83.37% Third Lanark 0 1334 3.33% 13.31%
22 1898-03-19 37.5 @ Rangers 8 1783 85.17% St. Bernards 1 1279 1.89% 12.94%
23 1897-12-04 38.3 @ St. Bernards 9 1193 42.03% Partick Thistle 1 1329 43.84% 14.13%
24 1898-02-12 38.3 @ Third Lanark 5 1384 71.76% Partick Thistle 2 1256 14.27% 13.98%
25 1898-01-03 38.9 Hibernian 4 1536 75.21% @ Clyde 2 1097 11.09% 13.70%