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2025-26 Slovenian PrvaLiga Season

162 games

Final

Champion

Celje

74 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bravo

12.38 points above expected

62 points · 49.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Primorje

12.28 points below expected

22 points · 34.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celje 34 23 5 6 74 85 32 +53 71.39 +2.61
2 Koper 34 20 7 7 67 71 43 +28 58.86 +8.14
3 Bravo 34 19 5 10 62 62 51 +11 49.62 +12.38
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 16 7 11 55 47 40 +7 60.65 -5.65
5 Maribor 34 15 8 11 53 57 40 +17 60.35 -7.35
6 Radomlje 34 13 6 15 45 50 63 -13 37.75 +7.25
7 Aluminij 34 10 6 18 36 42 61 -19 29.68 +6.32
8 NS Mura 34 8 7 19 31 35 55 -20 37.06 -6.06
9 Primorje 34 6 4 24 22 31 74 -43 34.28 -12.28
10 Domzale 18 3 3 12 12 17 38 -21 17.72 -5.72

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bravo 62 49.62 +12.38
2 Koper 67 58.86 +8.14
3 Radomlje 45 37.75 +7.25
4 Aluminij 36 29.68 +6.32
5 Celje 74 71.39 +2.61

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Primorje 22 34.28 -12.28
2 Maribor 53 60.35 -7.35
3 NS Mura 31 37.06 -6.06
4 Domzale 12 17.72 -5.72
5 Olimpija Ljubljana 55 60.65 -5.65

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bravo 7 Apr 11 – May 23 1 in 408
2 Koper 7 Apr 10 – May 16 1 in 97
3 Celje 7 Jul 20 – Aug 31 1 in 86
4 Radomlje 3 Aug 1 – Aug 15 1 in 26
5 Aluminij 2 Aug 22 – Aug 29 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Maribor 4 Apr 26 – May 17 1 in 144
2 Domzale 7 Jul 19 – Aug 31 1 in 143
3 Primorje 7 Mar 22 – May 9 1 in 37
4 Celje 2 Mar 1 – Mar 5 1 in 32
5 Bravo 3 Jan 31 – Feb 7 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bravo 11 Mar 1 – May 23 1 in 623
2 Radomlje 5 Oct 18 – Nov 24 1 in 65
3 NS Mura 5 Oct 4 – Nov 7 1 in 36
4 Celje 12 Jul 20 – Oct 18 1 in 34
5 Koper 8 Apr 4 – May 16 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 NS Mura 7 Aug 23 – Oct 17 1 in 23
2 Domzale 9 Jul 19 – Sep 20 1 in 22
3 Olimpija Ljubljana 4 Oct 3 – Nov 2 1 in 20
4 Maribor 4 Apr 26 – May 17 1 in 19
5 Bravo 4 Nov 1 – Nov 30 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Celje 1783 74 -1 9 11.2 -2.2
Koper 1732 67 +37 15 9.2 +5.8
Bravo 1650 62 +54 15 7.3 +7.7
Maribor 1662 53 -34 6 10.0 -4.0
Olimpija Ljubljana 1654 52 -10 6 7.5 -1.5
Radomlje 1507 45 +16 9 5.5 +3.5
Aluminij 1433 36 -25 1 4.2 -3.2
NS Mura 1484 31 +10 6 4.7 +1.3
Primorje 1388 22 -37 1 4.8 -3.8
Domzale 1441 12 -9 4 4.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALU BRA CEL DOM KOP MAR NM OL PRI RAD
Aluminij —
1-0-3
3.47
1-0-3
1.91
2-0-0
2.58
1-0-3
2.75
1-1-2
2.46
2-2-0
4.67
0-1-3
2.69
0-2-2
5.63
2-0-2
4.64
Bravo
3-0-1
7.81
 —
2-1-1
3.21
0-1-1
3.99
1-1-2
4.69
1-1-2
4.27
2-1-1
7.06
4-0-0
4.82
3-0-1
7.15
3-0-1
6.85
Celje
3-0-1
9.47
1-1-2
8.07
 —
2-0-0
4.78
1-2-1
7.09
3-1-0
6.47
3-0-1
9.16
2-1-1
6.97
4-0-0
9.41
4-0-0
8.91
Domzale
0-0-2
3.04
1-1-0
1.65
0-0-2
0.91
 —
0-0-2
1.41
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
2.49
1-0-1
1.55
1-0-1
2.47
0-1-1
2.78
Koper
3-0-1
8.56
2-1-1
6.56
1-2-1
4.17
2-0-0
4.24
 —
2-1-1
5.24
3-0-1
8.14
3-1-0
5.75
3-0-1
8.03
1-2-1
8.00
Maribor
2-1-1
8.86
2-1-1
6.99
0-1-3
4.78
2-0-0
4.07
1-1-2
6.00
 —
3-0-1
8.26
0-2-2
6.18
4-0-0
8.37
1-2-1
8.20
NS Mura
0-2-2
6.58
1-1-2
4.19
1-0-3
2.19
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-3
3.15
1-0-3
3.03
 —
0-1-3
3.46
2-1-1
6.20
1-1-2
5.46
Olimpija Ljubljana
3-1-0
8.62
0-0-4
6.43
1-1-2
4.30
1-0-1
4.10
0-1-3
5.50
2-2-0
5.06
3-1-0
7.81
 —
3-1-0
8.21
3-0-1
7.83
Primorje
2-2-0
5.62
1-0-3
4.12
0-0-4
1.97
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-3
3.26
0-0-4
2.93
1-1-2
5.04
0-1-3
3.09
 —
0-0-4
5.14
Radomlje
2-0-2
6.61
1-0-3
4.42
0-0-4
2.41
1-1-0
2.84
1-2-1
3.27
1-2-1
3.08
2-1-1
5.79
1-0-3
3.44
4-0-0
6.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +9.8
Allowed 0.23 -7.2
Differential 0.82 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.32%5.25%6.17%4.32%1.23%1.23%22.53%
15.25%7.41%11.11%4.32%1.23%0.93%30.25%
26.17%11.11%3.09%4.01%0.62%0.31%25.31%
34.32%4.32%4.01%3.09%——15.74%
41.23%1.23%0.62%———3.09%
5+1.23%0.93%0.31%——0.62%3.09%
Total22.53%30.25%25.31%15.74%3.09%3.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.95
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 162

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%5.88%2.94%5.88%—2.94%23.53%
12.94%8.82%17.65%2.94%5.88%—38.24%
22.94%14.71%2.94%5.88%2.94%—29.41%
32.94%2.94%2.94%———8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.71%32.35%26.47%14.71%8.82%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.79 -0.56
SD 0.92 1.30 1.71
CV 0.75 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%2.94%5.88%—2.94%2.94%17.65%
15.88%8.82%5.88%———20.59%
22.94%23.53%—5.88%—2.94%35.29%
35.88%8.82%2.94%2.94%——20.59%
4——2.94%———2.94%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total20.59%44.12%17.65%8.82%2.94%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.50 +0.32
SD 1.31 1.42 2.14
CV 0.72 0.95 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%2.94%————8.82%
15.88%2.94%8.82%2.94%——20.59%
211.76%5.88%—2.94%——20.59%
38.82%5.88%5.88%5.88%——26.47%
42.94%5.88%————8.82%
5+8.82%5.88%————14.71%
Total44.12%29.41%14.71%11.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.94 +1.56
SD 1.52 1.04 1.94
CV 0.61 1.11 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%11.11%——27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%—55.56%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%27.78%38.89%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.11 -1.17
SD 0.80 1.13 1.38
CV 0.85 0.54 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.88%2.94%———8.82%
111.76%8.82%5.88%———26.47%
22.94%14.71%5.88%2.94%2.94%—29.41%
35.88%8.82%2.94%5.88%——23.53%
42.94%2.94%2.94%———8.82%
5+——2.94%———2.94%
Total23.53%41.18%23.53%8.82%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.26 +0.82
SD 1.31 1.02 1.55
CV 0.63 0.81 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%8.82%—5.88%——17.65%
15.88%8.82%8.82%2.94%——26.47%
214.71%2.94%5.88%2.94%——26.47%
38.82%—5.88%5.88%——20.59%
42.94%—————2.94%
5+—2.94%———2.94%5.88%
Total35.29%23.53%20.59%17.65%—2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.15 +0.50
SD 1.32 1.18 1.78
CV 0.80 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%17.65%8.82%11.76%——44.12%
1—5.88%8.82%2.94%—2.94%20.59%
28.82%5.88%5.88%2.94%——23.53%
32.94%2.94%2.94%2.94%——11.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%32.35%26.47%20.59%—2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.62 -0.59
SD 1.09 1.18 1.69
CV 1.06 0.73 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%2.94%2.94%——2.94%17.65%
18.82%8.82%14.71%2.94%——35.29%
28.82%14.71%—5.88%——29.41%
35.88%5.88%—2.94%——14.71%
4———————
5+—————2.94%2.94%
Total32.35%32.35%17.65%11.76%—5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.15 +0.21
SD 1.04 1.26 1.61
CV 0.77 1.10 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%2.94%20.59%5.88%8.82%—44.12%
12.94%2.94%11.76%8.82%2.94%2.94%32.35%
22.94%2.94%2.94%5.88%——14.71%
3——5.88%———5.88%
4—2.94%————2.94%
5+———————
Total11.76%11.76%41.18%20.59%11.76%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 2.18 -1.26
SD 1.06 1.24 1.75
CV 1.16 0.57 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%—5.88%5.88%—2.94%17.65%
1—8.82%17.65%8.82%—2.94%38.24%
22.94%17.65%5.88%———26.47%
3—5.88%8.82%———14.71%
42.94%—————2.94%
5+———————
Total8.82%32.35%38.24%14.71%—5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.85 -0.38
SD 1.05 1.26 1.97
CV 0.71 0.68 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 34

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celje 1783 74 71.39 +2.61 68.0% 57 62 67 71 76 81 85
Koper 1732 67 58.86 +8.14 84.0% 38 46 53 58 65 71 78
Maribor 1662 53 60.35 -7.35 17.0% 42 49 56 61 64 71 75
Olimpija Ljubljana 1654 55 60.65 -5.65 25.0% 45 50 55 61 66 70 77
Bravo 1650 62 49.62 +12.38 96.0% 28 37 45 49 55 62 70
Radomlje 1507 45 37.75 +7.25 87.0% 21 26 32 38 43 50 56
NS Mura 1484 31 37.06 -6.06 29.0% 19 25 31 38 43 48 56
Domzale 1441 12 17.72 -5.72 14.0% 8 10 15 17 21 25 30
Aluminij 1433 36 29.68 +6.32 86.0% 13 17 25 30 34 41 46
Primorje 1388 22 34.28 -12.28 6.0% 19 22 30 34 39 45 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 17% * Clear Edge: 17% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Slight Edge
49.38%17.90%32.72%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
060.66500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.25 * Runaway: 0.25 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
71%
Celje, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.49 * Some Luck: 5.49 to 8.23 * Lucky: 8.23 to 10.97 * Wild Swing: 10.97 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.68 * Close: 0.68 to 1.01 * Off: 1.01 to 1.35 * Way Off: 1.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.91 points
Some Luck
06.8617
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Off
00.852
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Bravo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.00%
Primorje
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.8 * Moderate Separation: 1.8 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 72% * Wide Edge: 72% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58.5% * Some Drama: 58.5% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 63% * Very Frequent: 63% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 21% * Very Frequent: 21% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 138.66
2.60
Wide Separation
11.82.052.75
Interquartile Edge
77%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%72%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Some Drama
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.31 * Slight Separation: 0.31 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 22.5% * Upset-Prone: 22.5% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.310.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Some Carryover
00.420.630.791
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Celje71.00%25.00%4.00%———————
Koper8.00%24.00%21.00%29.00%15.00%1.00%2.00%———
Bravo—5.00%6.00%19.00%51.00%10.00%7.00%2.00%——
Olimpija Ljubljana10.00%21.00%32.00%27.00%8.00%2.00%————
Maribor11.00%25.00%35.00%21.00%7.00%1.00%————
Radomlje———2.00%9.00%27.00%30.00%19.00%13.00%—
Aluminij—————7.00%19.00%27.00%38.00%9.00%
NS Mura——1.00%1.00%8.00%32.00%20.00%20.00%18.00%—
Primorje——1.00%1.00%2.00%20.00%22.00%30.00%20.00%4.00%
Domzale———————2.00%11.00%87.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Bravo 100% — —
Celje 100% — —
Koper 100% — —
Maribor 100% — —
NS Mura 82.00% 18.00% —
Olimpija Ljubljana 100% — —
Radomlje 87.00% 13.00% —
Primorje 76.00% 20.00% 4.00%
Aluminij 53.00% 38.00% 9.00%
Domzale 2.00% 11.00% 87.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-07-18 Aluminij L 1-258.5 1508 1408 60.79% 18.12% 21.08%+0.91 -11.2 0
2025-07-18 @ Radomlje W 2-158.5 1408 1508 21.08% 18.12% 60.79%-0.91 +11.2 3
2025-07-19 NS Mura W 1-049.0 1687 1527 66.74% 17.29% 15.97%+1.26 +3.6 3
2025-07-19 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-149.0 1527 1687 15.97% 17.29% 66.74%-1.26 -3.6 0
2025-07-19 Domzale W 3-260.5 1534 1520 50.68% 18.89% 30.43%+0.42 +5.9 3
2025-07-19 @ Primorje L 2-360.5 1520 1534 30.43% 18.89% 50.68%-0.42 -5.9 0
2025-07-20 Bravo W 2-158.0 1638 1584 55.76% 18.59% 25.65%+0.65 +5.3 3
2025-07-20 @ Koper L 1-258.0 1584 1638 25.65% 18.59% 55.76%-0.65 -5.3 0
2025-07-20 Celje L 1-267.1 1669 1659 50.33% 18.90% 30.77%+0.41 -9.5 0
2025-07-20 @ Maribor W 2-167.1 1659 1669 30.77% 18.90% 50.33%-0.41 +9.5 3
2025-07-26 Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-340.8 1420 1691 16.78% 17.45% 65.77%-1.20 -10.5 3
2025-07-26 @ Aluminij W 3-040.8 1691 1420 65.77% 17.45% 16.78%+1.20 +10.5 6
2025-07-26 NS Mura W 2-045.6 1578 1524 55.81% 18.58% 25.60%+0.66 +10.7 3
2025-07-26 @ Bravo L 0-245.6 1524 1578 25.60% 18.58% 55.81%-0.66 -10.7 0
2025-07-27 Radomlje W 2-043.9 1668 1496 67.77% 17.11% 15.12%+1.32 +6.5 6
2025-07-27 @ Celje L 0-243.9 1496 1668 15.12% 17.11% 67.77%-1.32 -6.5 0
2025-07-27 Maribor L 1-258.1 1515 1660 29.24% 18.83% 51.93%-0.48 -6.0 0
2025-07-27 @ Domzale W 2-158.1 1660 1515 51.93% 18.83% 29.24%+0.48 +6.0 3
2025-07-28 Primorje W 2-046.3 1643 1540 61.28% 18.07% 20.65%+0.94 +8.8 6
2025-07-28 @ Koper L 0-246.3 1540 1643 20.65% 18.07% 61.28%-0.94 -8.8 3
2025-08-01 Domzale W 2-044.7 1490 1509 46.39% 19.04% 34.58%+0.24 +13.8 3
2025-08-01 @ Radomlje L 0-244.7 1509 1490 34.58% 19.04% 46.39%-0.24 -13.8 0
2025-08-02 Aluminij D 1-161.7 1513 1409 61.30% 18.07% 20.64%+0.94 -1.9 1
2025-08-02 @ NS Mura D 1-161.7 1409 1513 20.64% 18.07% 61.30%-0.94 +1.9 4
2025-08-02 Bravo L 1-357.2 1531 1589 40.86% 19.11% 40.04%+0.01 -13.7 3
2025-08-02 @ Primorje W 3-157.2 1589 1531 40.04% 19.11% 40.86%-0.01 +13.7 6
2025-08-03 Koper D 2-278.8 1666 1652 50.72% 18.89% 30.40%+0.42 -0.7 4
2025-08-03 @ Maribor D 2-278.8 1652 1666 30.40% 18.89% 50.72%-0.42 +0.7 7
2025-08-03 Celje L 0-557.4 1702 1675 52.43% 18.80% 28.77%+0.50 -45.9 6
2025-08-03 @ Olimpija Ljubljana W 5-057.4 1675 1702 28.77% 18.80% 52.43%-0.50 +45.9 9
2025-08-09 Aluminij L 1-264.3 1603 1411 69.45% 16.78% 13.78%+1.44 -12.8 6
2025-08-09 @ Bravo W 2-164.3 1411 1603 13.78% 16.78% 69.45%-1.44 +12.8 7
2025-08-09 Radomlje L 1-268.1 1653 1504 65.76% 17.45% 16.79%+1.20 -12.1 7
2025-08-09 @ Koper W 2-168.1 1504 1653 16.79% 17.45% 65.76%-1.20 +12.1 6
2025-08-10 NS Mura W 3-042.3 1720 1511 70.85% 16.47% 12.68%+1.54 +8.0 12
2025-08-10 @ Celje L 0-342.3 1511 1720 12.68% 16.47% 70.85%-1.54 -8.0 1
2025-08-10 Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-353.9 1495 1656 27.38% 18.72% 53.90%-0.57 -9.8 0
2025-08-10 @ Domzale W 3-153.9 1656 1495 53.90% 18.72% 27.38%+0.57 +9.8 9
2025-08-10 Maribor L 0-249.0 1517 1665 28.91% 18.81% 52.28%-0.50 -11.9 3
2025-08-10 @ Primorje W 2-049.0 1665 1517 52.28% 18.81% 28.91%+0.50 +11.9 7
2025-08-15 Primorje W 3-150.6 1516 1505 50.29% 18.91% 30.80%+0.40 +10.9 9
2025-08-15 @ Radomlje L 1-350.6 1505 1516 30.80% 18.91% 50.29%-0.40 -10.8 3
2025-08-16 Bravo D 3-382.8 1677 1590 59.48% 18.26% 22.26%+0.84 -1.1 8
2025-08-16 @ Maribor D 3-382.8 1590 1677 22.26% 18.26% 59.48%-0.84 +1.1 7
2025-08-16 Domzale W 3-040.7 1503 1485 51.32% 18.86% 29.83%+0.45 +17.7 4
2025-08-16 @ NS Mura L 0-340.7 1485 1503 29.83% 18.86% 51.32%-0.45 -17.7 0
2025-08-17 Celje L 2-358.2 1424 1728 14.38% 16.93% 68.68%-1.39 -2.9 7
2025-08-17 @ Aluminij W 3-258.2 1728 1424 68.68% 16.93% 14.38%+1.39 +2.9 15
2025-08-17 Koper L 1-364.4 1665 1641 52.15% 18.82% 29.03%+0.49 -16.9 9
2025-08-17 @ Olimpija Ljubljana W 3-164.4 1641 1665 29.03% 18.82% 52.15%-0.49 +16.9 10
2025-08-22 Aluminij L 0-246.8 1467 1421 54.81% 18.66% 26.54%+0.61 -20.4 0
2025-08-22 @ Domzale W 2-046.8 1421 1467 26.54% 18.66% 54.81%-0.61 +20.4 10
2025-08-23 NS Mura W 2-154.4 1658 1521 64.58% 17.63% 17.78%+1.12 +3.8 13
2025-08-23 @ Koper L 1-254.4 1521 1658 17.78% 17.63% 64.58%-1.12 -3.8 4
2025-08-23 Radomlje W 5-147.5 1676 1527 65.77% 17.45% 16.78%+1.20 +11.4 11
2025-08-23 @ Maribor L 1-547.5 1527 1676 16.78% 17.45% 65.77%-1.20 -11.4 9
2025-08-24 Celje L 0-550.1 1591 1731 29.84% 18.86% 51.30%-0.45 -28.5 7
2025-08-24 @ Bravo W 5-050.1 1731 1591 51.30% 18.86% 29.84%+0.45 +28.5 18
2025-08-24 Olimpija Ljubljana D 1-169.2 1494 1649 28.17% 18.77% 53.06%-0.53 +1.1 4
2025-08-24 @ Primorje D 1-169.2 1649 1494 53.06% 18.77% 28.17%+0.53 -1.1 10
2025-08-29 Koper W 1-059.6 1441 1661 21.18% 18.14% 60.68%-0.91 +11.9 13
2025-08-29 @ Aluminij L 0-159.6 1661 1441 60.68% 18.14% 21.18%+0.91 -11.9 13
2025-08-30 Bravo L 0-649.4 1515 1563 42.39% 19.10% 38.52%+0.08 -45.4 9
2025-08-30 @ Radomlje W 6-049.4 1563 1515 38.52% 19.10% 42.39%-0.08 +45.4 10
2025-08-31 Domzale W 4-145.5 1760 1447 77.83% 14.47% 7.70%+2.13 +4.0 21
2025-08-31 @ Celje L 1-445.5 1447 1760 7.70% 14.47% 77.83%-2.13 -4.0 0
2025-08-31 Primorje D 2-271.0 1517 1496 51.73% 18.84% 29.43%+0.47 -0.8 5
2025-08-31 @ NS Mura D 2-271.0 1496 1517 29.43% 18.84% 51.73%-0.47 +0.8 5
2025-08-31 Maribor W 1-057.8 1647 1687 43.47% 19.09% 37.44%+0.12 +7.8 13
2025-08-31 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-157.8 1687 1647 37.44% 19.09% 43.47%-0.12 -7.8 11
2025-09-13 NS Mura W 1-048.5 1679 1516 67.01% 17.24% 15.75%+1.28 +3.6 14
2025-09-13 @ Maribor L 0-148.5 1516 1679 15.75% 17.24% 67.01%-1.28 -3.6 5
2025-09-13 Olimpija Ljubljana W 3-270.6 1470 1655 24.65% 18.50% 56.84%-0.71 +10.0 12
2025-09-13 @ Radomlje L 2-370.6 1655 1470 56.84% 18.50% 24.65%+0.71 -10.0 13
2025-09-14 Domzale D 1-166.7 1608 1443 67.20% 17.21% 15.59%+1.29 -2.5 11
2025-09-14 @ Bravo D 1-166.7 1443 1608 15.59% 17.21% 67.20%-1.29 +2.5 1
2025-09-14 Celje D 3-384.1 1650 1764 33.10% 18.99% 47.90%-0.31 +0.4 14
2025-09-14 @ Koper D 3-384.1 1764 1650 47.90% 18.99% 33.10%+0.31 -0.4 22
2025-09-14 Aluminij W 4-144.2 1496 1453 54.41% 18.68% 26.90%+0.59 +13.7 8
2025-09-14 @ Primorje L 1-444.2 1453 1496 26.90% 18.68% 54.41%-0.59 -13.7 13
2025-09-19 Maribor L 2-359.0 1440 1683 19.07% 17.84% 63.09%-1.04 -3.9 13
2025-09-19 @ Aluminij W 3-259.0 1683 1440 63.09% 17.84% 19.07%+1.04 +3.9 17
2025-09-20 Koper L 1-350.7 1445 1650 22.68% 18.31% 59.01%-0.82 -8.3 1
2025-09-20 @ Domzale W 3-150.7 1650 1445 59.01% 18.31% 22.68%+0.82 +8.3 17
2025-09-20 Bravo L 1-267.1 1645 1606 54.01% 18.71% 27.28%+0.57 -10.1 13
2025-09-20 @ Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-167.1 1606 1645 27.28% 18.71% 54.01%-0.57 +10.1 14
2025-09-21 Radomlje D 0-059.8 1513 1480 53.18% 18.76% 28.06%+0.53 -1.3 6
2025-09-21 @ NS Mura D 0-059.8 1480 1513 28.06% 18.76% 53.18%-0.53 +1.3 13
2025-09-21 Celje L 2-362.1 1510 1764 18.21% 17.71% 64.08%-1.10 -3.7 8
2025-09-21 @ Primorje W 3-262.1 1764 1510 64.08% 17.71% 18.21%+1.10 +3.7 25
2025-09-26 Radomlje W 2-152.1 1436 1481 42.70% 19.10% 38.21%+0.09 +7.5 16
2025-09-26 @ Aluminij L 1-252.1 1481 1436 38.21% 19.10% 42.70%-0.09 -7.5 13
2025-09-27 Maribor W 3-048.3 1767 1687 58.76% 18.33% 22.91%+0.80 +14.0 28
2025-09-27 @ Celje L 0-348.3 1687 1767 22.91% 18.33% 58.76%-0.80 -14.0 17
2025-09-27 Primorje W 1-048.4 1437 1506 39.26% 19.10% 41.63%-0.05 +8.5 4
2025-09-27 @ Domzale L 0-148.4 1506 1437 41.63% 19.10% 39.26%+0.05 -8.5 8
2025-09-28 Koper W 4-264.2 1616 1658 43.08% 19.09% 37.83%+0.10 +11.5 17
2025-09-28 @ Bravo L 2-464.2 1658 1616 37.83% 19.09% 43.08%-0.10 -11.5 17
2025-09-28 Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-249.0 1511 1635 31.90% 18.95% 49.14%-0.36 -12.9 6
2025-09-28 @ NS Mura W 2-049.0 1635 1511 49.14% 18.95% 31.90%+0.36 +12.9 16
2025-10-03 Aluminij D 1-168.3 1648 1443 70.50% 16.55% 12.95%+1.51 -2.8 17
2025-10-03 @ Olimpija Ljubljana D 1-168.3 1443 1648 12.95% 16.55% 70.50%-1.51 +2.8 17
2025-10-04 Domzale W 3-039.1 1673 1445 72.22% 16.15% 11.64%+1.64 +7.3 20
2025-10-04 @ Maribor L 0-339.1 1445 1673 11.64% 16.15% 72.22%-1.64 -7.3 4
2025-10-04 Bravo D 1-168.7 1499 1627 31.29% 18.93% 49.79%-0.39 +0.8 7
2025-10-04 @ NS Mura D 1-168.7 1627 1499 49.79% 18.93% 31.29%+0.39 -0.8 18
2025-10-05 Koper W 2-164.2 1498 1647 28.79% 18.80% 52.41%-0.50 +9.8 11
2025-10-05 @ Primorje L 1-264.2 1647 1498 52.41% 18.80% 28.79%+0.50 -9.8 17
2025-10-05 Celje L 0-343.3 1474 1781 14.17% 16.88% 68.95%-1.41 -8.9 13
2025-10-05 @ Radomlje W 3-043.3 1781 1474 68.95% 16.88% 14.17%+1.41 +8.9 31
2025-10-17 NS Mura D 2-268.4 1446 1499 41.55% 19.10% 39.35%+0.04 -0.1 18
2025-10-17 @ Aluminij D 2-268.4 1499 1446 39.35% 19.10% 41.55%-0.04 +0.1 8
2025-10-18 Olimpija Ljubljana D 0-069.7 1790 1645 65.35% 17.52% 17.13%+1.17 -2.6 32
2025-10-18 @ Celje D 0-069.7 1645 1790 17.13% 17.52% 65.35%-1.17 +2.6 18
2025-10-18 Radomlje D 1-160.8 1438 1465 45.34% 19.06% 35.60%+0.20 -0.4 5
2025-10-18 @ Domzale D 1-160.8 1465 1438 35.60% 19.06% 45.34%-0.20 +0.4 14
2025-10-19 Primorje W 3-042.4 1626 1508 62.83% 17.88% 19.29%+1.02 +12.0 21
2025-10-19 @ Bravo L 0-342.4 1508 1626 19.29% 17.88% 62.83%-1.02 -12.0 11
2025-10-19 Maribor W 1-057.7 1637 1680 42.98% 19.09% 37.93%+0.10 +7.9 20
2025-10-19 @ Koper L 0-157.7 1680 1637 37.93% 19.09% 42.98%-0.10 -7.9 20
2025-10-24 Bravo L 1-350.7 1446 1638 23.94% 18.44% 57.62%-0.75 -8.7 18
2025-10-24 @ Aluminij W 3-150.7 1638 1446 57.62% 18.44% 23.94%+0.75 +8.7 24
2025-10-25 Primorje W 4-041.4 1672 1496 68.19% 17.03% 14.78%+1.35 +12.1 23
2025-10-25 @ Maribor L 0-441.4 1496 1672 14.78% 17.03% 68.19%-1.35 -12.1 11
2025-10-25 Koper D 1-168.3 1465 1645 25.28% 18.56% 56.16%-0.68 +1.4 15
2025-10-25 @ Radomlje D 1-168.3 1645 1465 56.16% 18.56% 25.28%+0.68 -1.4 21
2025-10-26 Celje W 2-171.1 1499 1788 15.53% 17.20% 67.27%-1.30 +12.4 11
2025-10-26 @ NS Mura L 1-271.1 1788 1499 67.27% 17.20% 15.53%+1.30 -12.4 32
2025-10-26 Domzale L 1-267.2 1648 1438 70.91% 16.46% 12.63%+1.54 -13.0 18
2025-10-26 @ Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-167.2 1438 1648 12.63% 16.46% 70.91%-1.54 +13.0 8
2025-11-01 Maribor L 2-371.0 1647 1684 43.81% 19.08% 37.10%+0.13 -8.0 24
2025-11-01 @ Bravo W 3-271.0 1684 1647 37.10% 19.08% 43.81%-0.13 +8.0 26
2025-11-01 Aluminij W 2-150.7 1775 1437 79.22% 13.95% 6.82%+2.27 +1.4 35
2025-11-01 @ Celje L 1-250.7 1437 1775 6.82% 13.95% 79.22%-2.27 -1.4 18
2025-11-02 Olimpija Ljubljana W 1-055.1 1643 1635 50.05% 18.92% 31.04%+0.39 +6.7 24
2025-11-02 @ Koper L 0-155.1 1635 1643 31.04% 18.92% 50.05%-0.39 -6.7 18
2025-11-02 Radomlje L 1-257.0 1483 1466 51.15% 18.87% 29.98%+0.44 -9.6 11
2025-11-02 @ Primorje W 2-157.0 1466 1483 29.98% 18.87% 51.15%-0.44 +9.6 18
2025-11-03 NS Mura D 3-373.5 1451 1512 40.44% 19.11% 40.45%+0.00 +0.0 9
2025-11-03 @ Domzale D 3-373.5 1512 1451 40.45% 19.11% 40.44%+0.00 +0.0 12
2025-11-07 Koper W 3-270.0 1512 1650 30.09% 18.87% 51.04%-0.44 +9.1 15
2025-11-07 @ NS Mura L 2-370.0 1650 1512 51.04% 18.87% 30.09%+0.44 -9.1 24
2025-11-07 Primorje W 2-042.5 1628 1474 66.23% 17.38% 16.40%+1.23 +7.1 21
2025-11-07 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-242.5 1474 1628 16.40% 17.38% 66.23%-1.23 -7.1 11
2025-11-08 Domzale W 3-146.9 1436 1451 46.92% 19.02% 34.06%+0.26 +11.8 21
2025-11-08 @ Aluminij L 1-346.9 1451 1436 34.06% 19.02% 46.92%-0.26 -11.8 9
2025-11-08 Maribor D 1-170.1 1476 1692 21.55% 18.18% 60.27%-0.89 +1.8 19
2025-11-08 @ Radomlje D 1-170.1 1692 1476 60.27% 18.18% 21.55%+0.89 -1.8 27
2025-11-09 Bravo D 0-069.6 1777 1639 64.67% 17.62% 17.71%+1.13 -2.5 36
2025-11-09 @ Celje D 0-069.6 1639 1777 17.71% 17.62% 64.67%-1.13 +2.5 25
2025-11-22 Celje L 0-244.0 1439 1774 12.45% 16.41% 71.14%-1.56 -5.4 9
2025-11-22 @ Domzale W 2-044.0 1774 1439 71.14% 16.41% 12.45%+1.56 +5.4 39
2025-11-22 Aluminij W 4-144.7 1641 1448 69.58% 16.75% 13.67%+1.45 +7.2 27
2025-11-22 @ Koper L 1-444.7 1448 1641 13.67% 16.75% 69.58%-1.45 -7.2 21
2025-11-23 Olimpija Ljubljana D 1-172.8 1691 1635 55.88% 18.58% 25.54%+0.66 -1.4 28
2025-11-23 @ Maribor D 1-172.8 1635 1691 25.54% 18.58% 55.88%-0.66 +1.4 22
2025-11-23 NS Mura W 1-049.4 1467 1521 41.44% 19.10% 39.46%+0.04 +8.2 14
2025-11-23 @ Primorje L 0-149.4 1521 1467 39.46% 19.10% 41.44%-0.04 -8.2 15
2025-11-24 Radomlje L 0-455.8 1642 1478 67.06% 17.23% 15.71%+1.28 -46.8 25
2025-11-24 @ Bravo W 4-055.8 1478 1642 15.71% 17.23% 67.06%-1.28 +46.8 22
2025-11-28 Primorje D 0-056.9 1440 1475 44.21% 19.08% 36.71%+0.15 -0.4 22
2025-11-28 @ Aluminij D 0-056.9 1475 1440 36.71% 19.08% 44.21%-0.15 +0.4 15
2025-11-29 Maribor L 0-152.0 1513 1689 25.64% 18.59% 55.77%-0.66 -5.7 15
2025-11-29 @ NS Mura W 1-052.0 1689 1513 55.77% 18.59% 25.64%+0.66 +5.7 31
2025-11-29 Radomlje W 2-154.7 1637 1525 62.13% 17.97% 19.90%+0.98 +4.2 25
2025-11-29 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-254.7 1525 1637 19.90% 17.97% 62.13%-0.98 -4.2 22
2025-11-30 Koper D 1-173.9 1780 1648 64.07% 17.71% 18.22%+1.09 -2.2 40
2025-11-30 @ Celje D 1-173.9 1648 1780 18.22% 17.71% 64.07%-1.09 +2.2 28
2025-11-30 Bravo W 1-055.2 1434 1595 27.36% 18.71% 53.93%-0.57 +10.7 12
2025-11-30 @ Domzale L 0-155.2 1595 1434 53.93% 18.71% 27.36%+0.57 -10.7 25
2025-12-05 Domzale W 2-150.1 1650 1444 70.60% 16.53% 12.87%+1.52 +2.8 31
2025-12-05 @ Koper L 1-250.1 1444 1650 12.87% 16.53% 70.60%-1.52 -2.8 12
2025-12-06 Aluminij L 2-375.3 1695 1440 74.16% 15.63% 10.21%+1.80 -12.8 31
2025-12-06 @ Maribor W 3-275.3 1440 1695 10.21% 15.63% 74.16%-1.80 +12.8 25
2025-12-06 NS Mura W 3-150.8 1520 1507 50.69% 18.89% 30.43%+0.42 +10.8 25
2025-12-06 @ Radomlje L 1-350.8 1507 1520 30.43% 18.89% 50.69%-0.42 -10.8 15
2025-12-07 Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-162.5 1584 1641 41.04% 19.11% 39.85%+0.02 +7.8 28
2025-12-07 @ Bravo L 1-262.5 1641 1584 39.85% 19.11% 41.04%-0.02 -7.8 25
2025-12-07 Primorje W 4-146.6 1777 1475 77.17% 14.70% 8.13%+2.07 +4.2 43
2025-12-07 @ Celje L 1-446.6 1475 1777 8.13% 14.70% 77.17%-2.07 -4.2 15
2026-01-30 Aluminij W 2-149.7 1531 1453 58.54% 18.35% 23.11%+0.79 +4.9 28
2026-01-30 @ Radomlje L 1-249.7 1453 1531 23.11% 18.35% 58.54%-0.79 -4.9 25
2026-01-31 Bravo W 6-252.9 1653 1592 56.60% 18.52% 24.88%+0.70 +14.0 34
2026-01-31 @ Koper L 2-652.9 1592 1653 24.88% 18.52% 56.60%-0.70 -14.0 28
2026-01-31 NS Mura W 1-047.4 1633 1496 64.59% 17.63% 17.78%+1.13 +4.0 28
2026-01-31 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-147.4 1496 1633 17.78% 17.63% 64.59%-1.13 -4.0 15
2026-02-01 Celje D 3-384.4 1682 1782 35.06% 19.05% 45.89%-0.22 +0.3 32
2026-02-01 @ Maribor D 3-384.4 1782 1682 45.89% 19.05% 35.06%+0.22 -0.3 44
2026-02-03 NS Mura L 0-254.6 1578 1492 59.33% 18.28% 22.39%+0.83 -22.0 28
2026-02-03 @ Bravo W 2-054.6 1492 1578 22.39% 18.28% 59.33%-0.83 +22.0 18
2026-02-03 Primorje W 2-151.7 1667 1471 69.80% 16.70% 13.50%+1.46 +2.9 37
2026-02-03 @ Koper L 1-251.7 1471 1667 13.50% 16.70% 69.80%-1.46 -2.9 15
2026-02-04 Radomlje W 3-151.2 1781 1536 73.50% 15.82% 10.69%+1.74 +4.0 47
2026-02-04 @ Celje L 1-351.2 1536 1781 10.69% 15.82% 73.50%-1.74 -4.0 28
2026-02-05 Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-253.8 1448 1637 24.27% 18.47% 57.26%-0.73 -5.1 25
2026-02-05 @ Aluminij W 2-153.8 1637 1448 57.26% 18.47% 24.27%+0.73 +5.1 31
2026-02-07 Bravo W 3-263.5 1468 1556 36.70% 19.08% 44.23%-0.15 +8.0 18
2026-02-07 @ Primorje L 2-363.5 1556 1468 44.23% 19.08% 36.70%+0.15 -8.0 28
2026-02-08 Aluminij L 0-347.8 1514 1443 57.75% 18.43% 23.82%+0.75 -31.2 18
2026-02-08 @ NS Mura W 3-047.8 1443 1514 23.82% 18.43% 57.75%-0.75 +31.1 28
2026-02-08 Celje W 3-165.3 1642 1785 29.50% 18.84% 51.66%-0.47 +16.8 34
2026-02-08 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-365.3 1785 1642 51.66% 18.84% 29.50%+0.47 -16.8 47
2026-02-08 Koper W 2-052.2 1682 1670 50.54% 18.89% 30.57%+0.42 +12.5 35
2026-02-08 @ Maribor L 0-252.2 1670 1682 30.57% 18.89% 50.54%-0.42 -12.5 37
2026-02-14 NS Mura W 5-145.3 1769 1483 76.16% 15.03% 8.81%+1.97 +6.0 50
2026-02-14 @ Celje L 1-545.3 1483 1769 8.81% 15.03% 76.16%-1.97 -6.0 18
2026-02-15 Radomlje D 2-277.0 1658 1532 63.49% 17.79% 18.72%+1.06 -1.6 38
2026-02-15 @ Koper D 2-277.0 1532 1658 18.72% 17.79% 63.49%-1.06 +1.6 29
2026-02-15 Maribor L 0-246.2 1476 1695 21.33% 18.15% 60.52%-0.90 -9.0 18
2026-02-15 @ Primorje W 2-046.2 1695 1476 60.52% 18.15% 21.33%+0.90 +9.0 38
2026-02-16 Aluminij W 2-151.3 1548 1474 58.02% 18.40% 23.58%+0.77 +5.0 31
2026-02-16 @ Bravo L 1-251.3 1474 1548 23.58% 18.40% 58.02%-0.77 -5.0 28
2026-02-21 Koper D 3-383.3 1659 1656 49.33% 18.94% 31.72%+0.36 -0.5 35
2026-02-21 @ Olimpija Ljubljana D 3-383.3 1656 1659 31.72% 18.94% 49.33%-0.36 +0.5 39
2026-02-21 Primorje W 2-150.8 1534 1467 57.20% 18.47% 24.33%+0.72 +5.1 32
2026-02-21 @ Radomlje L 1-250.8 1467 1534 24.33% 18.47% 57.20%-0.72 -5.1 18
2026-02-22 Bravo W 2-046.4 1704 1553 65.92% 17.43% 16.65%+1.21 +7.2 41
2026-02-22 @ Maribor L 0-246.4 1553 1704 16.65% 17.43% 65.92%-1.21 -7.2 31
2026-02-28 Radomlje D 2-278.4 1711 1539 67.81% 17.10% 15.09%+1.33 -1.9 42
2026-02-28 @ Maribor D 2-278.4 1539 1711 15.09% 17.10% 67.81%-1.33 +1.9 33
2026-02-28 Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-245.5 1462 1659 23.51% 18.40% 58.10%-0.77 -9.9 18
2026-02-28 @ Primorje W 2-045.5 1659 1462 58.10% 18.40% 23.51%+0.77 +9.9 38
2026-03-01 Celje W 1-064.5 1546 1774 20.36% 18.03% 61.61%-0.96 +12.1 34
2026-03-01 @ Bravo L 0-164.5 1774 1546 61.61% 18.03% 20.36%+0.96 -12.1 50
2026-03-01 NS Mura W 3-040.7 1656 1477 68.42% 16.98% 14.60%+1.37 +9.1 42
2026-03-01 @ Koper L 0-340.7 1477 1656 14.60% 16.98% 68.42%-1.37 -9.2 18
2026-03-05 Celje W 2-170.3 1469 1762 15.16% 17.11% 67.72%-1.33 +12.5 31
2026-03-05 @ Aluminij L 1-270.3 1762 1469 67.72% 17.11% 15.16%+1.33 -12.5 50
2026-03-07 Primorje W 3-146.7 1468 1452 51.00% 18.87% 30.12%+0.44 +10.7 21
2026-03-07 @ NS Mura L 1-346.7 1452 1468 30.12% 18.87% 51.00%-0.44 -10.7 18
2026-03-08 Koper L 2-457.4 1482 1666 24.81% 18.52% 56.67%-0.70 -8.0 31
2026-03-08 @ Aluminij W 4-257.4 1666 1482 56.67% 18.52% 24.81%+0.70 +8.0 45
2026-03-08 Maribor D 0-068.9 1668 1709 43.36% 19.09% 37.55%+0.11 -0.3 39
2026-03-08 @ Olimpija Ljubljana D 0-068.9 1709 1668 37.55% 19.09% 43.36%-0.11 +0.3 43
2026-03-09 Bravo L 1-358.2 1541 1558 46.64% 19.03% 34.33%+0.25 -15.3 33
2026-03-09 @ Radomlje W 3-158.2 1558 1541 34.33% 19.03% 46.64%-0.25 +15.3 37
2026-03-14 NS Mura W 3-040.9 1709 1479 72.46% 16.09% 11.46%+1.66 +7.2 46
2026-03-14 @ Maribor L 0-340.9 1479 1709 11.46% 16.09% 72.46%-1.66 -7.2 21
2026-03-14 Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-258.6 1525 1668 29.52% 18.84% 51.63%-0.47 -6.0 33
2026-03-14 @ Radomlje W 2-158.6 1668 1525 51.63% 18.84% 29.52%+0.47 +6.0 42
2026-03-15 Celje L 0-158.7 1674 1750 38.28% 19.10% 42.62%-0.09 -8.0 45
2026-03-15 @ Koper W 1-058.7 1750 1674 42.62% 19.10% 38.28%+0.09 +8.0 53
2026-03-15 Aluminij W 2-042.3 1442 1474 44.57% 19.07% 36.36%+0.16 +14.4 21
2026-03-15 @ Primorje L 0-242.3 1474 1442 36.36% 19.07% 44.57%-0.16 -14.4 31
2026-03-20 Maribor D 1-170.4 1459 1717 17.89% 17.65% 64.45%-1.12 +2.2 32
2026-03-20 @ Aluminij D 1-170.4 1717 1459 64.45% 17.65% 17.89%+1.12 -2.2 47
2026-03-21 Radomlje W 2-045.7 1471 1519 42.34% 19.10% 38.56%+0.07 +15.1 24
2026-03-21 @ NS Mura L 0-245.7 1519 1471 38.56% 19.10% 42.34%-0.07 -15.1 33
2026-03-21 Bravo L 1-268.9 1674 1573 61.02% 18.10% 20.88%+0.92 -11.3 42
2026-03-21 @ Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-168.9 1573 1674 20.88% 18.10% 61.02%-0.92 +11.3 40
2026-03-22 Primorje W 5-144.3 1758 1456 77.17% 14.70% 8.13%+2.07 +5.5 56
2026-03-22 @ Celje L 1-544.3 1456 1758 8.13% 14.70% 77.17%-2.07 -5.5 21
2026-04-03 Radomlje L 1-255.2 1461 1504 43.05% 19.09% 37.86%+0.10 -8.3 32
2026-04-03 @ Aluminij W 2-155.2 1504 1461 37.86% 19.09% 43.05%-0.10 +8.3 36
2026-04-04 Koper D 1-171.6 1584 1666 37.56% 19.09% 43.35%-0.12 +0.3 41
2026-04-04 @ Bravo D 1-171.6 1666 1584 43.35% 19.09% 37.56%+0.12 -0.2 46
2026-04-04 Maribor W 1-055.2 1763 1714 55.14% 18.63% 26.22%+0.63 +5.8 59
2026-04-04 @ Celje L 0-155.2 1714 1763 26.22% 18.63% 55.14%-0.63 -5.8 47
2026-04-04 Olimpija Ljubljana D 0-065.2 1487 1663 25.66% 18.59% 55.76%-0.66 +1.5 25
2026-04-04 @ NS Mura D 0-065.2 1663 1487 55.76% 18.59% 25.66%+0.66 -1.5 43
2026-04-10 Koper L 0-442.4 1450 1665 21.67% 18.20% 60.14%-0.88 -17.4 21
2026-04-10 @ Primorje W 4-042.4 1665 1450 60.14% 18.20% 21.67%+0.88 +17.4 49
2026-04-11 Bravo L 1-256.9 1488 1585 35.50% 19.06% 45.44%-0.20 -7.1 25
2026-04-11 @ NS Mura W 2-156.9 1585 1488 45.44% 19.06% 35.50%+0.20 +7.1 44
2026-04-11 Aluminij W 2-150.7 1661 1453 70.77% 16.49% 12.74%+1.53 +2.8 46
2026-04-11 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-250.7 1453 1661 12.74% 16.49% 70.77%-1.53 -2.8 32
2026-04-11 Celje L 1-353.5 1512 1769 17.95% 17.66% 64.39%-1.12 -6.7 36
2026-04-11 @ Radomlje W 3-153.5 1769 1512 64.39% 17.66% 17.95%+1.12 +6.7 62
2026-04-14 Maribor W 3-160.3 1683 1709 45.45% 19.06% 35.50%+0.20 +12.2 52
2026-04-14 @ Koper L 1-360.3 1709 1683 35.50% 19.06% 45.45%-0.20 -12.2 47
2026-04-15 Primorje W 2-148.8 1592 1433 66.61% 17.31% 16.08%+1.25 +3.5 47
2026-04-15 @ Bravo L 1-248.8 1433 1592 16.08% 17.31% 66.61%-1.25 -3.5 21
2026-04-15 Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-049.4 1776 1664 62.11% 17.97% 19.92%+0.98 +8.5 65
2026-04-15 @ Celje L 0-249.4 1664 1776 19.92% 17.97% 62.11%-0.98 -8.5 46
2026-04-16 NS Mura W 2-152.0 1450 1481 44.73% 19.07% 36.20%+0.17 +7.2 35
2026-04-16 @ Aluminij L 1-252.0 1481 1450 36.20% 19.07% 44.73%-0.17 -7.2 25
2026-04-18 Primorje W 2-040.6 1696 1430 74.96% 15.40% 9.64%+1.87 +4.1 50
2026-04-18 @ Maribor L 0-240.6 1430 1696 9.64% 15.40% 74.96%-1.87 -4.1 21
2026-04-18 Koper L 0-345.8 1506 1695 24.25% 18.47% 57.28%-0.73 -14.8 36
2026-04-18 @ Radomlje W 3-045.8 1695 1506 57.28% 18.47% 24.25%+0.73 +14.8 55
2026-04-19 Bravo L 0-149.0 1457 1595 30.16% 18.88% 50.96%-0.44 -6.5 35
2026-04-19 @ Aluminij W 1-049.0 1595 1457 50.96% 18.88% 30.16%+0.44 +6.5 50
2026-04-19 Celje L 0-245.5 1474 1784 14.00% 16.83% 69.17%-1.42 -6.1 25
2026-04-19 @ NS Mura W 2-045.5 1784 1474 69.17% 16.83% 14.00%+1.42 +6.0 68
2026-04-25 Olimpija Ljubljana W 3-265.7 1710 1656 55.76% 18.59% 25.65%+0.65 +5.1 58
2026-04-25 @ Koper L 2-365.7 1656 1710 25.65% 18.59% 55.76%-0.65 -5.1 46
2026-04-26 Aluminij W 5-040.5 1790 1451 79.30% 13.92% 6.77%+2.28 +6.7 71
2026-04-26 @ Celje L 0-540.5 1451 1790 6.77% 13.92% 79.30%-2.28 -6.7 35
2026-04-26 Radomlje L 2-358.3 1425 1491 39.80% 19.11% 41.09%-0.03 -7.4 21
2026-04-26 @ Primorje W 3-258.3 1491 1425 41.09% 19.11% 39.80%+0.03 +7.4 39
2026-04-26 Maribor W 3-054.2 1602 1700 35.17% 19.05% 45.78%-0.22 +25.3 53
2026-04-26 @ Bravo L 0-354.2 1700 1602 45.78% 19.05% 35.17%+0.22 -25.3 50
2026-05-02 Bravo L 2-378.3 1797 1627 67.63% 17.13% 15.24%+1.32 -11.8 71
2026-05-02 @ Celje W 3-278.3 1627 1797 15.24% 17.13% 67.63%-1.32 +11.8 56
2026-05-02 Primorje W 3-037.3 1651 1418 72.59% 16.05% 11.36%+1.67 +7.1 49
2026-05-02 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 0-337.3 1418 1651 11.36% 16.05% 72.59%-1.67 -7.1 21
2026-05-03 Koper L 0-149.2 1468 1715 18.76% 17.79% 63.45%-1.06 -4.2 25
2026-05-03 @ NS Mura W 1-049.2 1715 1468 63.45% 17.79% 18.76%+1.06 +4.2 61
2026-05-03 Maribor W 2-165.9 1498 1675 25.60% 18.58% 55.82%-0.66 +10.4 42
2026-05-03 @ Radomlje L 1-265.9 1675 1498 55.82% 18.58% 25.60%+0.66 -10.4 50
2026-05-09 Olimpija Ljubljana FL66.7 1665 1658 49.86% 18.92% 31.22%+0.39 +0.0 50
2026-05-09 @ Maribor FW66.7 1658 1665 31.22% 18.92% 49.86%-0.39 +0.0 52
2026-05-09 Radomlje W 2-153.7 1639 1509 63.94% 17.73% 18.34%+1.09 +3.9 59
2026-05-09 @ Bravo L 1-253.7 1509 1639 18.34% 17.73% 63.94%-1.09 -3.9 42
2026-05-09 Aluminij W 1-045.1 1719 1444 75.49% 15.24% 9.27%+1.91 +2.1 64
2026-05-09 @ Koper L 0-145.1 1444 1719 9.27% 15.24% 75.49%-1.91 -2.1 35
2026-05-09 NS Mura L 0-242.6 1411 1464 41.65% 19.10% 39.25%+0.05 -16.1 21
2026-05-09 @ Primorje W 2-042.6 1464 1411 39.25% 19.10% 41.65%-0.05 +16.1 28
2026-05-16 Primorje D 0-054.7 1442 1395 54.93% 18.65% 26.42%+0.62 -1.5 36
2026-05-16 @ Aluminij D 0-054.7 1395 1442 26.42% 18.65% 54.93%-0.62 +1.5 22
2026-05-16 Koper L 1-270.1 1785 1721 56.90% 18.50% 24.60%+0.71 -10.6 71
2026-05-16 @ Celje W 2-170.1 1721 1785 24.60% 18.50% 56.90%-0.71 +10.6 67
2026-05-17 Maribor W 2-165.4 1480 1665 24.71% 18.51% 56.78%-0.71 +10.6 31
2026-05-17 @ NS Mura L 1-265.4 1665 1480 56.78% 18.51% 24.71%+0.71 -10.6 50
2026-05-17 Radomlje W 2-153.5 1658 1505 66.09% 17.40% 16.51%+1.22 +3.5 55
2026-05-17 @ Olimpija Ljubljana L 1-253.5 1505 1658 16.51% 17.40% 66.09%-1.22 -3.6 42
2026-05-22 Celje L 0-439.7 1396 1775 10.14% 15.60% 74.26%-1.81 -8.3 22
2026-05-22 @ Primorje W 4-039.7 1775 1396 74.26% 15.60% 10.14%+1.81 +8.3 74
2026-05-22 NS Mura W 3-258.2 1501 1490 50.37% 18.90% 30.73%+0.41 +5.9 45
2026-05-22 @ Radomlje L 2-358.2 1490 1501 30.73% 18.90% 50.37%-0.41 -5.9 31
2026-05-23 Olimpija Ljubljana W 2-162.1 1643 1661 46.42% 19.03% 34.54%+0.24 +6.9 62
2026-05-23 @ Bravo L 1-262.1 1661 1643 34.54% 19.03% 46.42%-0.24 -6.9 55
2026-05-23 Aluminij W 3-038.6 1654 1441 71.17% 16.40% 12.43%+1.56 +7.8 53
2026-05-23 @ Maribor L 0-338.6 1441 1654 12.43% 16.40% 71.17%-1.56 -7.8 36

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-12-06 10.21% Aluminij 1440 3 @ Maribor 1695 2
2 2025-10-26 12.63% Domzale 1438 2 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1648 1
3 2025-08-09 13.78% Aluminij 1411 2 @ Bravo 1603 1
4 2026-03-05 15.16% @ Aluminij 1469 2 Celje 1762 1
5 2026-05-02 15.24% Bravo 1627 3 @ Celje 1797 2
6 2025-10-26 15.53% @ NS Mura 1499 2 Celje 1788 1
7 2025-11-24 15.71% Radomlje 1478 4 @ Bravo 1642 0
8 2025-08-09 16.79% Radomlje 1504 2 @ Koper 1653 1
9 2026-03-01 20.36% @ Bravo 1546 1 Celje 1774 0
10 2026-03-21 20.88% Bravo 1573 2 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1674 1
11 2025-07-18 21.08% Aluminij 1408 2 @ Radomlje 1508 1
12 2025-08-29 21.18% @ Aluminij 1441 1 Koper 1661 0
13 2026-02-03 22.39% NS Mura 1492 2 @ Bravo 1578 0
14 2026-02-08 23.82% Aluminij 1443 3 @ NS Mura 1514 0
15 2026-05-16 24.60% Koper 1721 2 @ Celje 1785 1
16 2025-09-13 24.65% @ Radomlje 1470 3 Olimpija Ljubljana 1655 2
17 2026-05-17 24.71% @ NS Mura 1480 2 Maribor 1665 1
18 2026-05-03 25.60% @ Radomlje 1498 2 Maribor 1675 1
19 2025-08-22 26.54% Aluminij 1421 2 @ Domzale 1467 0
20 2025-09-20 27.28% Bravo 1606 2 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1645 1
21 2025-11-30 27.36% @ Domzale 1434 1 Bravo 1595 0
22 2025-08-03 28.77% Celje 1675 5 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1702 0
23 2025-10-05 28.79% @ Primorje 1498 2 Koper 1647 1
24 2025-08-17 29.03% Koper 1641 3 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1665 1
25 2026-02-08 29.50% @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1642 3 Celje 1785 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-11-24 46.84 Radomlje 4 1478 15.71% @ Bravo 0 1642 67.06% 17.23%
2 2025-08-03 45.91 Celje 5 1675 28.77% @ Olimpija Ljubljana 0 1702 52.43% 18.80%
3 2025-08-30 45.38 Bravo 6 1563 38.52% @ Radomlje 0 1515 42.39% 19.10%
4 2026-02-08 31.15 Aluminij 3 1443 23.82% @ NS Mura 0 1514 57.75% 18.43%
5 2025-08-24 28.54 Celje 5 1731 51.30% @ Bravo 0 1591 29.84% 18.86%
6 2026-04-26 25.31 @ Bravo 3 1602 35.17% Maribor 0 1700 45.78% 19.05%
7 2026-02-03 22.00 NS Mura 2 1492 22.39% @ Bravo 0 1578 59.33% 18.28%
8 2025-08-22 20.44 Aluminij 2 1421 26.54% @ Domzale 0 1467 54.81% 18.66%
9 2025-08-16 17.72 @ NS Mura 3 1503 51.32% Domzale 0 1485 29.83% 18.86%
10 2026-04-10 17.42 Koper 4 1665 60.14% @ Primorje 0 1450 21.67% 18.20%
11 2025-08-17 16.92 Koper 3 1641 29.03% @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1665 52.15% 18.82%
12 2026-02-08 16.78 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 3 1642 29.50% Celje 1 1785 51.66% 18.84%
13 2026-05-09 16.10 NS Mura 2 1464 39.25% @ Primorje 0 1411 41.65% 19.10%
14 2026-03-09 15.33 Bravo 3 1558 34.33% @ Radomlje 1 1541 46.64% 19.03%
15 2026-03-21 15.13 @ NS Mura 2 1471 42.34% Radomlje 0 1519 38.56% 19.10%
16 2026-04-18 14.77 Koper 3 1695 57.28% @ Radomlje 0 1506 24.25% 18.47%
17 2026-03-15 14.41 @ Primorje 2 1442 44.57% Aluminij 0 1474 36.36% 19.07%
18 2025-09-27 14.03 @ Celje 3 1767 58.76% Maribor 0 1687 22.91% 18.33%
19 2026-01-31 13.96 @ Koper 6 1653 56.60% Bravo 2 1592 24.88% 18.52%
20 2025-08-01 13.83 @ Radomlje 2 1490 46.39% Domzale 0 1509 34.58% 19.04%
21 2025-08-02 13.73 Bravo 3 1589 40.04% @ Primorje 1 1531 40.86% 19.11%
22 2025-09-14 13.66 @ Primorje 4 1496 54.41% Aluminij 1 1453 26.90% 18.68%
23 2025-10-26 13.00 Domzale 2 1438 12.63% @ Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1648 70.91% 16.46%
24 2025-09-28 12.92 Olimpija Ljubljana 2 1635 49.14% @ NS Mura 0 1511 31.90% 18.95%
25 2025-12-06 12.83 Aluminij 3 1440 10.21% @ Maribor 2 1695 74.16% 15.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-02-01 84.4 @ Maribor 3 1682 35.06% Celje 3 1782 45.89% 19.05%
2 2025-09-14 84.1 @ Koper 3 1650 33.10% Celje 3 1764 47.90% 18.99%
3 2026-02-21 83.3 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 3 1659 49.33% Koper 3 1656 31.72% 18.94%
4 2025-08-16 82.8 @ Maribor 3 1677 59.48% Bravo 3 1590 22.26% 18.26%
5 2025-08-03 78.8 @ Maribor 2 1666 50.72% Koper 2 1652 30.40% 18.89%
6 2026-02-28 78.4 @ Maribor 2 1711 67.81% Radomlje 2 1539 15.09% 17.10%
7 2026-05-02 78.3 Bravo 3 1627 15.24% @ Celje 2 1797 67.63% 17.13%
8 2026-02-15 77.0 @ Koper 2 1658 63.49% Radomlje 2 1532 18.72% 17.79%
9 2025-12-06 75.3 Aluminij 3 1440 10.21% @ Maribor 2 1695 74.16% 15.63%
10 2025-11-30 73.9 @ Celje 1 1780 64.07% Koper 1 1648 18.22% 17.71%
11 2025-11-03 73.5 @ Domzale 3 1451 40.44% NS Mura 3 1512 40.45% 19.11%
12 2025-11-23 72.8 @ Maribor 1 1691 55.88% Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1635 25.54% 18.58%
13 2026-04-04 71.6 @ Bravo 1 1584 37.56% Koper 1 1666 43.35% 19.09%
14 2025-10-26 71.1 @ NS Mura 2 1499 15.53% Celje 1 1788 67.27% 17.20%
15 2025-08-31 71.0 @ NS Mura 2 1517 51.73% Primorje 2 1496 29.43% 18.84%
16 2025-11-01 71.0 Maribor 3 1684 37.10% @ Bravo 2 1647 43.81% 19.08%
17 2025-09-13 70.6 @ Radomlje 3 1470 24.65% Olimpija Ljubljana 2 1655 56.84% 18.50%
18 2026-03-20 70.4 @ Aluminij 1 1459 17.89% Maribor 1 1717 64.45% 17.65%
19 2026-03-05 70.3 @ Aluminij 2 1469 15.16% Celje 1 1762 67.72% 17.11%
20 2025-11-08 70.1 @ Radomlje 1 1476 21.55% Maribor 1 1692 60.27% 18.18%
21 2026-05-16 70.1 Koper 2 1721 24.60% @ Celje 1 1785 56.90% 18.50%
22 2025-11-07 70.0 @ NS Mura 3 1512 30.09% Koper 2 1650 51.04% 18.87%
23 2025-10-18 69.7 @ Celje 0 1790 65.35% Olimpija Ljubljana 0 1645 17.13% 17.52%
24 2025-11-09 69.6 @ Celje 0 1777 64.67% Bravo 0 1639 17.71% 17.62%
25 2025-08-24 69.2 @ Primorje 1 1494 28.17% Olimpija Ljubljana 1 1649 53.06% 18.77%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-05-02 37.3 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 3 1651 72.59% Primorje 0 1418 11.36% 16.05%
2 2026-05-23 38.6 @ Maribor 3 1654 71.17% Aluminij 0 1441 12.43% 16.40%
3 2025-10-04 39.1 @ Maribor 3 1673 72.22% Domzale 0 1445 11.64% 16.15%
4 2026-05-22 39.7 Celje 4 1775 74.26% @ Primorje 0 1396 10.14% 15.60%
5 2026-04-26 40.5 @ Celje 5 1790 79.30% Aluminij 0 1451 6.77% 13.92%
6 2026-04-18 40.6 @ Maribor 2 1696 74.96% Primorje 0 1430 9.64% 15.40%
7 2025-08-16 40.7 @ NS Mura 3 1503 51.32% Domzale 0 1485 29.83% 18.86%
8 2026-03-01 40.7 @ Koper 3 1656 68.42% NS Mura 0 1477 14.60% 16.98%
9 2025-07-26 40.8 Olimpija Ljubljana 3 1691 65.77% @ Aluminij 0 1420 16.78% 17.45%
10 2026-03-14 40.9 @ Maribor 3 1709 72.46% NS Mura 0 1479 11.46% 16.09%
11 2025-10-25 41.4 @ Maribor 4 1672 68.19% Primorje 0 1496 14.78% 17.03%
12 2025-08-10 42.3 @ Celje 3 1720 70.85% NS Mura 0 1511 12.68% 16.47%
13 2026-03-15 42.3 @ Primorje 2 1442 44.57% Aluminij 0 1474 36.36% 19.07%
14 2025-10-19 42.4 @ Bravo 3 1626 62.83% Primorje 0 1508 19.29% 17.88%
15 2026-04-10 42.4 Koper 4 1665 60.14% @ Primorje 0 1450 21.67% 18.20%
16 2025-11-07 42.5 @ Olimpija Ljubljana 2 1628 66.23% Primorje 0 1474 16.40% 17.38%
17 2026-05-09 42.6 NS Mura 2 1464 39.25% @ Primorje 0 1411 41.65% 19.10%
18 2025-10-05 43.3 Celje 3 1781 68.95% @ Radomlje 0 1474 14.17% 16.88%
19 2025-07-27 43.9 @ Celje 2 1668 67.77% Radomlje 0 1496 15.12% 17.11%
20 2025-11-22 44.0 Celje 2 1774 71.14% @ Domzale 0 1439 12.45% 16.41%
21 2025-09-14 44.2 @ Primorje 4 1496 54.41% Aluminij 1 1453 26.90% 18.68%
22 2026-03-22 44.3 @ Celje 5 1758 77.17% Primorje 1 1456 8.13% 14.70%
23 2025-08-01 44.7 @ Radomlje 2 1490 46.39% Domzale 0 1509 34.58% 19.04%
24 2025-11-22 44.7 @ Koper 4 1641 69.58% Aluminij 1 1448 13.67% 16.75%
25 2026-05-09 45.1 @ Koper 1 1719 75.49% Aluminij 0 1444 9.27% 15.24%