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1941 Group A Season

73 games

Final

Champion

Dynamo Moscow

15 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dynamo Leningrad

2.85 points above expected

14 points · 11.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow

4.47 points below expected

4 points · 8.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dynamo Moscow 10 6 3 1 15 28 12 +16 13.82 +1.18
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 10 6 3 1 15 22 13 +9 13.17 +1.83
3 Dynamo Leningrad 11 5 4 2 14 20 11 +9 11.15 +2.85
4 Traktor Stalingrad 12 3 7 2 13 16 16 0 11.64 +1.36
5 Stakhanovets Stalino 11 6 0 5 12 13 13 0 9.63 +2.37
6 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 9 5 1 3 11 15 13 +2 9.77 +1.23
7 Spartak Moscow 9 4 2 3 10 17 12 +5 11.25 -1.25
8 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 10 3 4 3 10 11 10 +1 9.83 +0.17
9 Dynamo Kyiv 9 4 2 3 10 16 14 +2 8.33 +1.67
10 Sparta Odessa 10 3 2 5 8 16 22 -6 6.91 +1.09
11 Zenit Leningrad 8 2 3 3 7 12 14 -2 7.32 -0.32
12 Dinamo Minsk 10 3 0 7 6 10 21 -11 8.78 -2.78
13 Spartak Leningrad 9 1 4 4 6 8 16 -8 9.12 -3.12
14 Spartak Kharkiv 9 2 1 6 5 7 19 -12 6.81 -1.81
15 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 9 1 2 6 4 10 15 -5 8.47 -4.47

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dynamo Leningrad 14 11.15 +2.85
2 Stakhanovets Stalino 12 9.63 +2.37
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 15 13.17 +1.83
4 Dynamo Kyiv 10 8.33 +1.67
5 Traktor Stalingrad 13 11.64 +1.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 4 8.47 -4.47
2 Spartak Leningrad 6 9.12 -3.12
3 Dinamo Minsk 6 8.78 -2.78
4 Spartak Kharkiv 5 6.81 -1.81
5 Spartak Moscow 10 11.25 -1.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stakhanovets Stalino 3 Jun 5 – Jun 18 1 in 57
2 Dynamo Kyiv 3 May 24 – Jun 3 1 in 39
3 Sparta Odessa 2 Jun 8 – Jun 12 1 in 14
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 Apr 27 – May 11 1 in 8
5 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 2 May 11 – May 18 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Minsk 4 May 17 – May 30 1 in 71
2 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 3 May 7 – May 18 1 in 14
3 Spartak Kharkiv 4 May 2 – May 26 1 in 14
4 Zenit Leningrad 2 Jun 8 – Jun 12 1 in 9
5 Dynamo Moscow 1 Jun 5 – Jun 5 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Traktor Stalingrad 6 May 3 – Jun 1 1 in 16
2 Dynamo Leningrad 7 May 18 – Jun 16 1 in 12
3 Dynamo Kyiv 4 May 24 – Jun 8 1 in 9
4 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 5 May 18 – Jun 3 1 in 8
5 Sparta Odessa 3 Jun 8 – Jun 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 8 May 7 – Jun 13 1 in 25
2 Traktor Stalingrad 6 May 11 – Jun 5 1 in 13
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 May 18 – May 29 1 in 10
4 Spartak Leningrad 5 May 23 – Jun 16 1 in 8
5 Dinamo Minsk 4 May 17 – May 30 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tbilisi 1598 15 +17 8 6.4 +1.6
Dynamo Moscow 1667 15 -11 6 7.1 -1.1
Dynamo Leningrad 1543 14 +18 6 5.5 +0.5
Traktor Stalingrad 1495 13 +5 6 4.4 +1.6
Stakhanovets Stalino 1484 12 +16 6 4.4 +1.6
Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1540 11 +0 5 5.3 -0.3
Spartak Moscow 1576 10 +20 7 6.1 +0.9
Dynamo Kyiv 1457 10 -6 5 4.9 +0.1
Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1497 10 -6 4 4.6 -0.6
Sparta Odessa 1411 8 +7 6 3.8 +2.2
Zenit Leningrad 1465 7 -2 5 4.4 +0.6
Dinamo Minsk 1441 6 -22 2 4.1 -2.1
Spartak Leningrad 1435 6 -36 2 4.6 -2.6
Spartak Kharkiv 1425 5 +12 4 4.2 -0.2
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1467 4 -16 2 4.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DM DT DK DL DM KAM PM PM SO SK SL SM SS TS ZL
Dinamo Minsk —
0-0-1
1.01
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.24
0-0-1
0.66
1-0-0
0.97
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.73
0-0-1
1.56
1-0-0
1.46
0-0-1
1.00
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
1-0-0
1.72
—
0-0-1
1.97
1-0-0
1.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.82
1-0-0
1.79
0-1-0
2.01
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.79
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.82
0-1-0
1.81
0-1-0
1.80
Dynamo Kyiv
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
0.77
—
0-1-0
1.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.28
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.63
0-0-1
1.61
0-0-1
1.27
0-0-1
1.02
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.14
0-1-0
1.26
Dynamo Leningrad
1-0-0
1.49
0-0-1
1.18
0-1-0
1.53
—
0-0-1
0.83
1-0-0
1.20
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.46
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.55
1-0-0
1.71
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.58
0-1-0
1.51
1-0-0
1.60
Dynamo Moscow
1-0-0
2.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.91
—
1-0-0
1.88
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
1.96
1-0-0
2.12
1-0-0
2.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.69
0-0-1
2.12
0-1-0
2.00
0-0-0
0.00
Krasnaya Armiya Moscow
0-0-1
1.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.52
0-0-1
0.86
—
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.47
1-0-0
1.79
1-0-0
1.74
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.06
1-0-0
1.63
0-1-0
1.58
0-0-0
0.00
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow
0-0-1
1.40
0-0-1
0.91
0-0-1
1.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.81
0-0-0
0.00
—
0-0-1
1.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.41
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.56
0-1-0
1.33
0-0-1
1.40
Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.94
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.27
0-1-0
0.78
0-0-1
1.25
1-0-0
1.36
—
1-0-0
1.69
1-0-0
1.69
0-1-0
1.48
0-1-0
1.12
0-0-1
1.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sparta Odessa
1-0-0
1.00
0-1-0
0.73
0-0-1
1.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.63
0-0-1
0.95
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.04
—
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.21
0-1-0
1.02
1-0-0
1.04
Spartak Kharkiv
1-0-0
1.16
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.12
0-1-0
1.17
0-0-1
0.62
0-0-1
0.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.03
0-0-0
0.00
—
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.87
0-0-1
1.16
0-0-1
1.09
0-0-0
0.00
Spartak Leningrad
0-0-1
1.26
0-0-1
0.95
1-0-0
1.46
0-0-1
1.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.32
0-1-0
1.24
0-0-1
1.62
0-0-0
0.00
—
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.26
0-1-0
1.38
Spartak Moscow
1-0-0
1.73
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.04
0-0-1
1.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.61
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.87
0-0-0
0.00
—
0-0-1
1.89
1-0-0
1.65
0-0-1
1.85
Stakhanovets Stalino
1-0-0
1.49
0-0-1
0.91
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.14
1-0-0
0.64
0-0-1
1.10
0-0-1
1.17
1-0-0
1.27
1-0-0
1.51
1-0-0
1.57
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
0.85
—
0-0-1
1.36
0-0-0
0.00
Traktor Stalingrad
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.92
0-0-1
1.59
0-1-0
1.22
0-1-0
0.74
0-1-0
1.14
0-1-0
1.40
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.71
1-0-0
1.63
0-1-0
1.47
0-0-1
1.07
1-0-0
1.36
—
1-0-0
1.41
Zenit Leningrad
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.93
0-1-0
1.46
0-0-1
1.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.34
1-0-0
0.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.31
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +5.5
Allowed 0.33 -5.9
Differential 0.77 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.74%6.85%4.79%5.48%0.68%0.68%21.23%
16.85%16.44%4.79%5.48%0.68%0.68%34.93%
24.79%4.79%6.85%5.48%—0.68%22.60%
35.48%5.48%5.48%—0.68%—17.12%
40.68%0.68%—0.68%——2.05%
5+0.68%0.68%0.68%———2.05%
Total21.23%34.93%22.60%17.12%2.05%2.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.88
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 73

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——10.00%20.00%——30.00%
110.00%—10.00%20.00%——40.00%
2—20.00%—10.00%——30.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%20.00%20.00%50.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.10 -1.10
SD 0.82 1.10 1.60
CV 0.82 0.52 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———10.00%——10.00%
110.00%10.00%————20.00%
2——20.00%———20.00%
320.00%—20.00%———40.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%20.00%40.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.20 1.30 +0.90
SD 1.23 1.06 1.85
CV 0.56 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
322.22%—11.11%———33.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.56 +0.22
SD 1.20 1.13 2.05
CV 0.68 0.73 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—36.36%—9.09%——45.45%
218.18%——9.09%——27.27%
318.18%9.09%————27.27%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%45.45%—18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.00 +0.82
SD 0.87 1.10 1.66
CV 0.48 1.10 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——10.00%———10.00%
1—20.00%————20.00%
2—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
3—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
410.00%—————10.00%
5+10.00%—10.00%———20.00%
Total20.00%40.00%40.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.80 1.20 +1.60
SD 2.10 0.79 2.55
CV 0.75 0.66 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
222.22%————11.11%33.33%
3—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.44 +0.22
SD 1.00 1.59 1.86
CV 0.60 1.10 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
111.11%22.22%33.33%———66.67%
2———22.22%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 0.60 1.00 0.73
CV 0.54 0.60 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%30.00%————40.00%
110.00%10.00%————20.00%
2—10.00%20.00%———30.00%
3—10.00%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%60.00%20.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.00 +0.10
SD 1.10 0.67 0.99
CV 1.00 0.67 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%—10.00%10.00%—30.00%
1—10.00%—10.00%——20.00%
2——10.00%10.00%——20.00%
3—20.00%————20.00%
4———10.00%——10.00%
5+———————
Total—40.00%10.00%40.00%10.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 2.20 -0.60
SD 1.43 1.14 2.01
CV 0.89 0.52 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—33.33%———11.11%44.44%
1—11.11%—11.11%—11.11%33.33%
222.22%—————22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%—11.11%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.11 -1.33
SD 0.83 2.42 2.83
CV 1.07 1.15 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%——11.11%——33.33%
1—22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%—55.56%
2———————
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.78 -0.89
SD 0.93 1.39 1.45
CV 1.04 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2——11.11%———11.11%
311.11%22.22%————33.33%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%55.56%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.33 +0.56
SD 1.76 0.87 2.35
CV 0.93 0.65 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
127.27%——9.09%——36.36%
29.09%9.09%—9.09%——27.27%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total45.45%18.18%9.09%27.27%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.18 +0.00
SD 0.98 1.33 1.90
CV 0.83 1.12 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
18.33%58.33%—8.33%——75.00%
2—8.33%—8.33%——16.67%
3——8.33%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total8.33%66.67%8.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 0.65 0.89 0.85
CV 0.49 0.67 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—12.50%———25.00%
112.50%—12.50%———25.00%
2——25.00%———25.00%
3——12.50%—12.50%—25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%—62.50%—12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.75 -0.25
SD 1.20 1.28 1.04
CV 0.80 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 8

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dynamo Moscow 1667 15 13.82 +1.18 74.0% 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Dinamo Tbilisi 1598 15 13.17 +1.83 81.0% 6 8 12 13 15 18 19
Spartak Moscow 1576 10 11.25 -1.25 37.0% 6 7 9 11 13 16 17
Dynamo Leningrad 1543 14 11.15 +2.85 90.0% 4 6 9 11 13 17 18
Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1540 11 9.77 +1.23 76.0% 4 6 8 10 11 14 15
Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1497 10 9.83 +0.17 55.0% 2 5 8 10 11 14 15
Traktor Stalingrad 1495 13 11.64 +1.36 73.0% 3 7 10 12 14 16 19
Stakhanovets Stalino 1484 12 9.63 +2.37 83.0% 1 5 8 10 12 14 16
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1467 4 8.47 -4.47 3.0% 3 5 7 8 10 12 15
Zenit Leningrad 1465 7 7.32 -0.32 55.0% 2 4 5 7 9 12 15
Dynamo Kyiv 1457 10 8.33 +1.67 81.0% 1 4 7 9 10 12 13
Dinamo Minsk 1441 6 8.78 -2.78 19.0% 2 5 7 9 11 13 15
Spartak Leningrad 1435 6 9.12 -3.12 19.0% 1 5 7 9 11 14 16
Spartak Kharkiv 1425 5 6.81 -1.81 29.0% 1 2 5 7 8 10 12
Sparta Odessa 1411 8 6.91 +1.09 79.0% 1 3 5 7 8 11 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 16.5% * Slight Edge: 16.5% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.74%
No Edge
35.62%26.03%38.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -9.52 Elo pts.
138 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.07 goals
Neutral
-2-0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.7
Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Dynamo Moscow, 1st of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.1 * Some Luck: 2.1 to 3.15 * Lucky: 3.15 to 4.2 * Wild Swing: 4.2 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.35 * Close: 2.35 to 3.53 * Off: 3.53 to 4.7 * Way Off: 4.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.13 points
Some Luck
02.627
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.13
Pinpoint
02.946
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
90.00%
Dynamo Leningrad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
3.00%
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.14 * Top-Heavy: 0.14 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67.5% * Clear Edge: 67.5% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85.5% * Clear Edge: 85.5% to 89% * Strong Edge: 89% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 57.5% * Some Drama: 57.5% to 65.5% * Frequent: 65.5% to 69.5% * Very Frequent: 69.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 11.5% * Occasional: 11.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 20% * Very Frequent: 20% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.130.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 71.98
1.34
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.41.61.82.5
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.48 * Some Carryover: 0.48 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 23.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 23.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.69
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Weak Carryover
00.480.651
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.3 * Above Noise: 0.3 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.78
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.132
Well Within Noise
00.2030.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112131415
Dynamo Moscow35.00%21.00%17.00%5.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%—1.00%————
Dinamo Tbilisi25.00%23.00%17.00%11.00%5.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%3.00%——1.00%1.00%2.00%—
Dynamo Leningrad8.00%10.00%10.00%17.00%13.00%10.00%5.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%—2.00%3.00%
Traktor Stalingrad12.00%14.00%13.00%7.00%9.00%11.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%—2.00%
Stakhanovets Stalino3.00%3.00%11.00%5.00%9.00%6.00%12.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%2.00%8.00%6.00%7.00%3.00%
Krasnaya Armiya Moscow1.00%4.00%9.00%4.00%7.00%12.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%10.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%
Spartak Moscow7.00%13.00%6.00%17.00%13.00%7.00%8.00%6.00%7.00%5.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%—1.00%
Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow3.00%5.00%7.00%9.00%8.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%8.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%
Dynamo Kyiv—1.00%1.00%7.00%5.00%8.00%5.00%13.00%11.00%11.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%8.00%7.00%
Sparta Odessa2.00%1.00%——1.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%7.00%5.00%13.00%8.00%19.00%17.00%19.00%
Zenit Leningrad—1.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%7.00%13.00%12.00%19.00%12.00%14.00%
Dinamo Minsk2.00%2.00%1.00%3.00%6.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%7.00%8.00%11.00%12.00%5.00%
Spartak Leningrad2.00%1.00%4.00%9.00%7.00%3.00%9.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%11.00%6.00%6.00%11.00%7.00%
Spartak Kharkiv————1.00%1.00%5.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%12.00%14.00%15.00%25.00%
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow—1.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%9.00%17.00%11.00%14.00%9.00%6.00%7.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Dinamo Minsk 100%
Dinamo Tbilisi 100%
Dynamo Kyiv 100%
Dynamo Leningrad 100%
Dynamo Moscow 100%
Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 100%
Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 100%
Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 100%
Sparta Odessa 100%
Spartak Kharkiv 100%
Spartak Leningrad 100%
Spartak Moscow 100%
Stakhanovets Stalino 100%
Traktor Stalingrad 100%
Zenit Leningrad 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1941-04-27 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow L 2-355.6 1418 1528 22.59% 26.80% 50.61%-0.86 -4.0 0
1941-04-27 @ Sparta Odessa W 3-255.6 1528 1418 50.61% 26.80% 22.59%+0.86 +4.0 2
1941-04-27 Spartak Leningrad W 2-154.0 1494 1470 39.49% 27.57% 32.94%+0.10 +5.7 2
1941-04-27 @ Dinamo Minsk L 1-254.0 1470 1494 32.94% 27.57% 39.49%-0.10 -5.7 0
1941-04-27 Stakhanovets Stalino W 3-042.3 1578 1458 51.79% 26.65% 21.56%+0.80 +11.8 2
1941-04-27 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-342.3 1458 1578 21.56% 26.65% 51.79%-0.80 -11.8 0
1941-04-27 Dynamo Kyiv L 2-361.5 1491 1436 43.87% 27.40% 28.73%+0.33 -6.7 0
1941-04-27 @ Traktor Stalingrad W 3-261.5 1436 1491 28.73% 27.40% 43.87%-0.33 +6.7 2
1941-04-27 Dynamo Leningrad D 1-158.9 1448 1494 29.96% 27.47% 42.58%-0.40 +0.4 1
1941-04-27 @ Spartak Kharkiv D 1-158.9 1494 1448 42.58% 27.47% 29.96%+0.40 -0.4 1
1941-05-02 Dynamo Moscow L 0-439.7 1414 1643 13.05% 24.31% 62.64%-1.73 -9.8 0
1941-05-02 @ Sparta Odessa W 4-039.7 1643 1414 62.64% 24.31% 13.05%+1.73 +9.8 2
1941-05-02 Stakhanovets Stalino W 1-046.6 1494 1447 42.77% 27.46% 29.77%+0.27 +5.6 2
1941-05-02 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow L 0-146.6 1447 1494 29.77% 27.46% 42.77%-0.27 -5.6 0
1941-05-02 Spartak Moscow L 1-545.8 1448 1582 20.21% 26.41% 53.38%-1.04 -12.2 1
1941-05-02 @ Spartak Kharkiv W 5-145.8 1582 1448 53.38% 26.41% 20.21%+1.04 +12.2 2
1941-05-03 Dynamo Leningrad L 0-250.0 1532 1493 41.63% 27.51% 30.87%+0.21 -13.6 2
1941-05-03 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow W 2-050.0 1493 1532 30.87% 27.51% 41.63%-0.21 +13.6 3
1941-05-03 Dinamo Minsk W 3-045.2 1590 1499 48.34% 27.05% 24.61%+0.59 +13.2 4
1941-05-03 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-345.2 1499 1590 24.61% 27.05% 48.34%-0.59 -13.2 2
1941-05-03 Zenit Leningrad W 2-154.2 1485 1472 37.93% 27.60% 34.47%+0.02 +5.9 2
1941-05-03 @ Traktor Stalingrad L 1-254.2 1472 1485 34.47% 27.60% 37.93%-0.02 -5.9 0
1941-05-04 Spartak Leningrad D 0-055.2 1494 1465 40.28% 27.55% 32.17%+0.14 -0.3 1
1941-05-04 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow D 0-055.2 1465 1494 32.17% 27.55% 40.28%-0.14 +0.3 1
1941-05-07 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 2-155.7 1653 1499 55.46% 26.06% 18.48%+1.04 +3.6 4
1941-05-07 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-255.7 1499 1653 18.48% 26.06% 55.46%-1.04 -3.6 2
1941-05-10 Dynamo Leningrad W 3-153.3 1656 1507 55.06% 26.13% 18.81%+1.01 +6.3 6
1941-05-10 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-353.3 1507 1656 18.81% 26.13% 55.06%-1.01 -6.3 3
1941-05-11 Spartak Moscow W 2-054.4 1518 1594 26.25% 27.22% 46.54%-0.62 +14.8 4
1941-05-11 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow L 0-254.4 1594 1518 46.54% 27.22% 26.25%+0.62 -14.8 2
1941-05-11 Zenit Leningrad D 2-263.9 1442 1467 32.83% 27.57% 39.60%-0.24 +0.2 3
1941-05-11 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 2-263.9 1467 1442 39.60% 27.57% 32.83%+0.24 -0.2 1
1941-05-11 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow W 1-049.9 1603 1493 50.64% 26.80% 22.56%+0.73 +4.5 6
1941-05-11 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-149.9 1493 1603 22.56% 26.80% 50.64%-0.73 -4.5 1
1941-05-11 Dinamo Minsk L 0-150.5 1496 1486 37.56% 27.60% 34.84%+0.00 -6.7 2
1941-05-11 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 1-050.5 1486 1496 34.84% 27.60% 37.56%+0.00 +6.6 4
1941-05-11 Spartak Leningrad D 1-159.4 1490 1465 39.78% 27.56% 32.66%+0.11 -0.2 3
1941-05-11 @ Traktor Stalingrad D 1-159.4 1465 1490 32.66% 27.56% 39.78%-0.11 +0.2 2
1941-05-11 Sparta Odessa W 1-044.0 1441 1404 41.32% 27.52% 31.17%+0.20 +5.8 2
1941-05-11 @ Stakhanovets Stalino L 0-144.0 1404 1441 31.17% 27.52% 41.32%-0.20 -5.8 0
1941-05-17 Sparta Odessa L 1-353.3 1493 1399 48.78% 27.01% 24.21%+0.61 -13.4 4
1941-05-17 @ Dinamo Minsk W 3-153.3 1399 1493 24.21% 27.01% 48.78%-0.61 +13.4 2
1941-05-18 Spartak Leningrad L 2-357.6 1443 1465 33.01% 27.57% 39.42%-0.23 -5.4 3
1941-05-18 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 3-257.6 1465 1443 39.42% 27.57% 33.01%+0.23 +5.4 4
1941-05-18 Traktor Stalingrad D 1-164.8 1608 1490 51.54% 26.68% 21.78%+0.78 -1.1 7
1941-05-18 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 1-164.8 1490 1608 21.78% 26.68% 51.54%-0.78 +1.1 4
1941-05-18 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow L 1-255.5 1489 1489 36.22% 27.61% 36.17%-0.07 -6.1 2
1941-05-18 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 2-155.5 1489 1489 36.17% 27.61% 36.22%+0.07 +6.1 3
1941-05-18 Dynamo Leningrad L 1-349.3 1447 1500 28.96% 27.41% 43.63%-0.46 -9.0 2
1941-05-18 @ Stakhanovets Stalino W 3-149.3 1500 1447 43.63% 27.41% 28.96%+0.46 +8.9 5
1941-05-18 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow L 1-348.5 1436 1533 23.89% 26.97% 49.13%-0.77 -7.7 1
1941-05-18 @ Spartak Kharkiv W 3-148.5 1533 1436 49.13% 26.97% 23.89%+0.77 +7.7 6
1941-05-18 Dynamo Moscow D 1-168.4 1580 1662 25.46% 27.14% 47.40%-0.67 +0.8 3
1941-05-18 @ Spartak Moscow D 1-168.4 1662 1580 47.40% 27.14% 25.46%+0.67 -0.8 7
1941-05-21 Spartak Kharkiv W 7-043.2 1662 1428 63.06% 24.18% 12.76%+1.62 +16.2 9
1941-05-21 @ Dynamo Moscow L 0-743.2 1428 1662 12.76% 24.18% 63.06%-1.62 -16.2 1
1941-05-21 Sparta Odessa W 3-146.8 1495 1412 47.40% 27.14% 25.46%+0.53 +8.1 5
1941-05-21 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow L 1-346.8 1412 1495 25.46% 27.14% 47.40%-0.53 -8.1 2
1941-05-21 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow D 1-160.1 1491 1483 37.38% 27.60% 35.02%-0.01 -0.1 5
1941-05-21 @ Traktor Stalingrad D 1-160.1 1483 1491 35.02% 27.60% 37.38%+0.01 +0.1 3
1941-05-22 Dinamo Minsk W 3-043.9 1509 1480 40.41% 27.55% 32.05%+0.15 +16.2 7
1941-05-22 @ Dynamo Leningrad L 0-343.9 1480 1509 32.05% 27.55% 40.41%-0.15 -16.2 4
1941-05-22 Spartak Moscow W 3-051.3 1438 1580 19.42% 26.26% 54.32%-1.10 +24.6 4
1941-05-22 @ Stakhanovets Stalino L 0-351.3 1580 1438 54.32% 26.26% 19.42%+1.10 -24.6 3
1941-05-23 Spartak Leningrad D 0-054.4 1466 1471 35.56% 27.61% 36.83%-0.10 +0.0 2
1941-05-23 @ Zenit Leningrad D 0-054.4 1471 1466 36.83% 27.61% 35.56%+0.10 -0.0 5
1941-05-24 Dinamo Tbilisi W 3-052.9 1437 1607 17.16% 25.73% 57.11%-1.30 +25.7 5
1941-05-24 @ Dynamo Kyiv L 0-352.9 1607 1437 57.11% 25.73% 17.16%+1.30 -25.7 7
1941-05-25 Dynamo Moscow L 2-555.7 1541 1678 19.91% 26.36% 53.73%-1.06 -8.1 6
1941-05-25 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow W 5-255.7 1678 1541 53.73% 26.36% 19.91%+1.06 +8.1 11
1941-05-25 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow D 1-162.1 1526 1503 39.38% 27.57% 33.05%+0.09 -0.2 8
1941-05-25 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 1-162.1 1503 1526 33.05% 27.57% 39.38%-0.09 +0.2 6
1941-05-26 Stakhanovets Stalino L 0-144.3 1412 1462 29.37% 27.44% 43.19%-0.43 -5.5 1
1941-05-26 @ Spartak Kharkiv W 1-044.3 1462 1412 43.19% 27.44% 29.37%+0.43 +5.5 6
1941-05-26 Dinamo Minsk W 3-150.5 1556 1463 48.56% 27.03% 24.41%+0.60 +7.8 5
1941-05-26 @ Spartak Moscow L 1-350.5 1463 1556 24.41% 27.03% 48.56%-0.60 -7.8 4
1941-05-28 Sparta Odessa D 1-157.5 1491 1404 47.93% 27.09% 24.98%+0.56 -0.8 6
1941-05-28 @ Traktor Stalingrad D 1-157.5 1404 1491 24.98% 27.09% 47.93%-0.56 +0.8 3
1941-05-29 Dynamo Kyiv L 1-255.2 1483 1463 39.05% 27.58% 33.37%+0.08 -6.5 3
1941-05-29 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 2-155.2 1463 1483 33.37% 27.58% 39.05%-0.08 +6.5 7
1941-05-29 Dinamo Tbilisi D 2-269.2 1466 1581 22.09% 26.73% 51.19%-0.90 +0.8 3
1941-05-29 @ Zenit Leningrad D 2-269.2 1581 1466 51.19% 26.73% 22.09%+0.90 -0.8 8
1941-05-30 Spartak Moscow D 2-269.7 1503 1564 28.15% 27.36% 44.49%-0.51 +0.4 7
1941-05-30 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow D 2-269.7 1564 1503 44.49% 27.36% 28.15%+0.51 -0.4 6
1941-05-30 Dinamo Minsk W 2-044.7 1407 1455 29.55% 27.44% 43.00%-0.42 +13.9 3
1941-05-30 @ Spartak Kharkiv L 0-244.7 1455 1407 43.00% 27.44% 29.55%+0.42 -13.9 4
1941-06-01 Zenit Leningrad L 2-360.2 1477 1467 37.55% 27.60% 34.85%+0.00 -5.9 3
1941-06-01 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 3-260.2 1467 1477 34.85% 27.60% 37.55%+0.00 +5.9 5
1941-06-01 Dynamo Leningrad D 1-161.7 1490 1525 31.36% 27.52% 41.11%-0.32 +0.3 7
1941-06-01 @ Traktor Stalingrad D 1-161.7 1525 1490 41.11% 27.52% 31.36%+0.32 -0.3 9
1941-06-01 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow L 0-244.8 1468 1533 27.59% 27.32% 45.09%-0.54 -10.0 6
1941-06-01 @ Stakhanovets Stalino W 2-044.8 1533 1468 45.09% 27.32% 27.59%+0.54 +10.0 8
1941-06-01 Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-448.8 1471 1580 22.61% 26.80% 50.59%-0.86 -10.4 5
1941-06-01 @ Spartak Leningrad W 4-148.8 1580 1471 50.59% 26.80% 22.61%+0.86 +10.4 10
1941-06-03 Dynamo Kyiv L 0-338.5 1405 1469 27.60% 27.32% 45.07%-0.54 -14.5 3
1941-06-03 @ Sparta Odessa W 3-038.5 1469 1405 45.07% 27.32% 27.60%+0.54 +14.5 9
1941-06-03 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow L 0-144.6 1420 1504 25.42% 27.14% 47.44%-0.67 -5.0 3
1941-06-03 @ Spartak Kharkiv W 1-044.6 1504 1420 47.44% 27.14% 25.42%+0.67 +5.0 9
1941-06-05 Stakhanovets Stalino L 0-259.3 1686 1458 62.59% 24.33% 13.08%+1.58 -19.2 11
1941-06-05 @ Dynamo Moscow W 2-059.3 1458 1686 13.08% 24.33% 62.59%-1.58 +19.2 8
1941-06-05 Spartak Moscow L 1-352.6 1491 1563 26.68% 27.25% 46.07%-0.59 -8.4 7
1941-06-05 @ Traktor Stalingrad W 3-152.6 1563 1491 46.07% 27.25% 26.68%+0.59 +8.4 8
1941-06-06 Dinamo Minsk L 1-259.5 1543 1442 49.62% 26.92% 23.46%+0.66 -7.8 8
1941-06-06 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow W 2-159.5 1442 1543 23.46% 26.92% 49.62%-0.66 +7.8 6
1941-06-07 Spartak Leningrad D 1-158.5 1471 1460 37.68% 27.60% 34.72%+0.01 -0.1 4
1941-06-07 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow D 1-158.5 1460 1471 34.72% 27.60% 37.68%-0.01 +0.1 6
1941-06-08 Zenit Leningrad W 4-363.4 1390 1473 25.48% 27.14% 47.38%-0.67 +7.0 5
1941-06-08 @ Sparta Odessa L 3-463.4 1473 1390 47.38% 27.14% 25.48%+0.67 -7.0 5
1941-06-08 Dynamo Kyiv D 1-161.4 1525 1484 41.95% 27.49% 30.56%+0.23 -0.4 10
1941-06-08 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 1-161.4 1484 1525 30.56% 27.49% 41.95%-0.23 +0.4 10
1941-06-10 Dynamo Moscow L 2-358.4 1449 1667 13.74% 24.60% 61.66%-1.65 -2.6 6
1941-06-10 @ Dinamo Minsk W 3-258.4 1667 1449 61.66% 24.60% 13.74%+1.65 +2.6 13
1941-06-10 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow L 0-151.3 1509 1535 32.54% 27.56% 39.89%-0.26 -6.0 9
1941-06-10 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow W 1-051.3 1535 1509 39.89% 27.56% 32.54%+0.26 +6.0 10
1941-06-10 Spartak Kharkiv W 1-044.4 1482 1416 45.35% 27.30% 27.34%+0.42 +5.2 9
1941-06-10 @ Traktor Stalingrad L 0-144.4 1416 1482 27.34% 27.30% 45.35%-0.42 -5.2 3
1941-06-12 Spartak Leningrad W 3-151.2 1397 1460 27.79% 27.34% 44.88%-0.53 +12.5 7
1941-06-12 @ Sparta Odessa L 1-351.2 1460 1397 44.88% 27.34% 27.79%+0.53 -12.5 6
1941-06-12 Dynamo Kyiv W 3-044.1 1571 1484 47.92% 27.09% 24.98%+0.56 +13.4 10
1941-06-12 @ Spartak Moscow L 0-344.1 1484 1571 24.98% 27.09% 47.92%-0.56 -13.4 10
1941-06-12 Dynamo Leningrad L 0-244.7 1466 1525 28.36% 27.38% 44.26%-0.49 -10.2 5
1941-06-12 @ Zenit Leningrad W 2-044.7 1525 1466 44.26% 27.38% 28.36%+0.49 +10.2 12
1941-06-13 Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow W 3-259.5 1590 1471 51.81% 26.65% 21.55%+0.80 +3.9 12
1941-06-13 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 2-359.5 1471 1590 21.55% 26.65% 51.81%-0.80 -3.9 4
1941-06-14 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow D 2-273.4 1669 1503 56.84% 25.79% 17.38%+1.14 -1.1 14
1941-06-14 @ Dynamo Moscow D 2-273.4 1503 1669 17.38% 25.79% 56.84%-1.14 +1.1 10
1941-06-15 Traktor Stalingrad D 1-162.2 1541 1488 43.58% 27.41% 29.00%+0.32 -0.5 11
1941-06-15 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow D 1-162.2 1488 1541 29.00% 27.41% 43.58%-0.32 +0.5 10
1941-06-15 Stakhanovets Stalino L 1-252.2 1447 1477 31.97% 27.55% 40.49%-0.29 -5.6 6
1941-06-15 @ Dinamo Minsk W 2-152.2 1477 1447 40.49% 27.55% 31.97%+0.29 +5.6 10
1941-06-16 Spartak Leningrad W 3-041.5 1535 1448 47.88% 27.10% 25.02%+0.56 +13.4 14
1941-06-16 @ Dynamo Leningrad L 0-341.5 1448 1535 25.02% 27.10% 47.88%-0.56 -13.4 6
1941-06-16 Dynamo Kyiv W 2-045.7 1410 1471 28.09% 27.36% 44.56%-0.51 +14.3 5
1941-06-16 @ Spartak Kharkiv L 0-245.7 1471 1410 44.56% 27.36% 28.09%+0.51 -14.3 10
1941-06-17 Spartak Moscow W 1-056.9 1456 1585 20.68% 26.50% 52.82%-1.00 +8.8 7
1941-06-17 @ Zenit Leningrad L 0-156.9 1585 1456 52.82% 26.50% 20.68%+1.00 -8.8 10
1941-06-18 Stakhanovets Stalino L 0-151.1 1504 1483 39.19% 27.58% 33.24%+0.08 -6.9 10
1941-06-18 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow W 1-051.1 1483 1504 33.24% 27.58% 39.19%-0.08 +6.9 12
1941-06-19 Sparta Odessa D 2-268.0 1594 1410 58.61% 25.40% 15.99%+1.27 -1.2 13
1941-06-19 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 2-268.0 1410 1594 15.99% 25.40% 58.61%-1.27 +1.2 8
1941-06-19 Traktor Stalingrad D 1-167.0 1668 1488 58.19% 25.50% 16.32%+1.24 -1.6 15
1941-06-19 @ Dynamo Moscow D 1-167.0 1488 1668 16.32% 25.50% 58.19%-1.24 +1.6 11
1941-06-24 Dynamo Leningrad W 3-264.9 1593 1548 42.47% 27.47% 30.06%+0.26 +5.0 15
1941-06-24 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 2-364.9 1548 1593 30.06% 27.47% 42.47%-0.26 -5.0 14
1941-06-24 Traktor Stalingrad L 2-361.1 1490 1490 36.20% 27.61% 36.19%-0.07 -5.8 12
1941-06-24 @ Stakhanovets Stalino W 3-261.1 1490 1490 36.19% 27.61% 36.20%+0.07 +5.8 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1941-06-05 13.08% Stakhanovets Stalino 1458 2 @ Dynamo Moscow 1686 0
2 1941-05-24 17.16% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1437 3 Dinamo Tbilisi 1607 0
3 1941-05-22 19.42% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 1438 3 Spartak Moscow 1580 0
4 1941-06-17 20.68% @ Zenit Leningrad 1456 1 Spartak Moscow 1585 0
5 1941-06-06 23.46% Dinamo Minsk 1442 2 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1543 1
6 1941-05-17 24.21% Sparta Odessa 1399 3 @ Dinamo Minsk 1493 1
7 1941-06-08 25.48% @ Sparta Odessa 1390 4 Zenit Leningrad 1473 3
8 1941-05-11 26.25% @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1518 2 Spartak Moscow 1594 0
9 1941-06-12 27.79% @ Sparta Odessa 1397 3 Spartak Leningrad 1460 1
10 1941-06-16 28.09% @ Spartak Kharkiv 1410 2 Dynamo Kyiv 1471 0
11 1941-04-27 28.73% Dynamo Kyiv 1436 3 @ Traktor Stalingrad 1491 2
12 1941-05-30 29.55% @ Spartak Kharkiv 1407 2 Dinamo Minsk 1455 0
13 1941-05-03 30.87% Dynamo Leningrad 1493 2 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1532 0
14 1941-06-18 33.24% Stakhanovets Stalino 1483 1 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1504 0
15 1941-05-29 33.37% Dynamo Kyiv 1463 2 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1483 1
16 1941-05-11 34.84% Dinamo Minsk 1486 1 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1496 0
17 1941-06-01 34.85% Zenit Leningrad 1467 3 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1477 2
18 1941-05-18 36.17% Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1489 2 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1489 1
19 1941-06-24 36.19% Traktor Stalingrad 1490 3 @ Stakhanovets Stalino 1490 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-05-24 25.74 @ Dynamo Kyiv 3 1437 17.16% Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1607 57.11% 25.73%
2 1941-05-22 24.62 @ Stakhanovets Stalino 3 1438 19.42% Spartak Moscow 0 1580 54.32% 26.26%
3 1941-06-05 19.24 Stakhanovets Stalino 2 1458 13.08% @ Dynamo Moscow 0 1686 62.59% 24.33%
4 1941-05-21 16.25 @ Dynamo Moscow 7 1662 63.06% Spartak Kharkiv 0 1428 12.76% 24.18%
5 1941-05-22 16.21 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1509 40.41% Dinamo Minsk 0 1480 32.05% 27.55%
6 1941-05-11 14.83 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 2 1518 26.25% Spartak Moscow 0 1594 46.54% 27.22%
7 1941-06-03 14.47 Dynamo Kyiv 3 1469 45.07% @ Sparta Odessa 0 1405 27.60% 27.32%
8 1941-06-16 14.32 @ Spartak Kharkiv 2 1410 28.09% Dynamo Kyiv 0 1471 44.56% 27.36%
9 1941-05-30 13.92 @ Spartak Kharkiv 2 1407 29.55% Dinamo Minsk 0 1455 43.00% 27.44%
10 1941-05-03 13.56 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1493 30.87% @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 0 1532 41.63% 27.51%
11 1941-06-16 13.39 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1535 47.88% Spartak Leningrad 0 1448 25.02% 27.10%
12 1941-05-17 13.37 Sparta Odessa 3 1399 24.21% @ Dinamo Minsk 1 1493 48.78% 27.01%
13 1941-06-12 13.37 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1571 47.92% Dynamo Kyiv 0 1484 24.98% 27.09%
14 1941-05-03 13.21 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1590 48.34% Dinamo Minsk 0 1499 24.61% 27.05%
15 1941-06-12 12.47 @ Sparta Odessa 3 1397 27.79% Spartak Leningrad 1 1460 44.88% 27.34%
16 1941-05-02 12.21 Spartak Moscow 5 1582 53.38% @ Spartak Kharkiv 1 1448 20.21% 26.41%
17 1941-04-27 11.85 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1578 51.79% Stakhanovets Stalino 0 1458 21.56% 26.65%
18 1941-06-01 10.39 Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1580 50.59% @ Spartak Leningrad 1 1471 22.61% 26.80%
19 1941-06-12 10.17 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1525 44.26% @ Zenit Leningrad 0 1466 28.36% 27.38%
20 1941-06-01 9.96 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 2 1533 45.09% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 0 1468 27.59% 27.32%
21 1941-05-02 9.80 Dynamo Moscow 4 1643 62.64% @ Sparta Odessa 0 1414 13.05% 24.31%
22 1941-05-18 8.95 Dynamo Leningrad 3 1500 43.63% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 1 1447 28.96% 27.41%
23 1941-06-17 8.77 @ Zenit Leningrad 1 1456 20.68% Spartak Moscow 0 1585 52.82% 26.50%
24 1941-06-05 8.40 Spartak Moscow 3 1563 46.07% @ Traktor Stalingrad 1 1491 26.68% 27.25%
25 1941-05-21 8.09 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 3 1495 47.40% Sparta Odessa 1 1412 25.46% 27.14%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-06-14 73.4 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1669 56.84% Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 2 1503 17.38% 25.79%
2 1941-05-30 69.7 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 2 1503 28.15% Spartak Moscow 2 1564 44.49% 27.36%
3 1941-05-29 69.2 @ Zenit Leningrad 2 1466 22.09% Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1581 51.19% 26.73%
4 1941-05-18 68.4 @ Spartak Moscow 1 1580 25.46% Dynamo Moscow 1 1662 47.40% 27.14%
5 1941-06-19 68.0 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1594 58.61% Sparta Odessa 2 1410 15.99% 25.40%
6 1941-06-19 67.0 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1668 58.19% Traktor Stalingrad 1 1488 16.32% 25.50%
7 1941-06-24 64.9 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1593 42.47% Dynamo Leningrad 2 1548 30.06% 27.47%
8 1941-05-18 64.8 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1608 51.54% Traktor Stalingrad 1 1490 21.78% 26.68%
9 1941-05-11 63.9 @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1442 32.83% Zenit Leningrad 2 1467 39.60% 27.57%
10 1941-06-08 63.4 @ Sparta Odessa 4 1390 25.48% Zenit Leningrad 3 1473 47.38% 27.14%
11 1941-06-15 62.2 @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1 1541 43.58% Traktor Stalingrad 1 1488 29.00% 27.41%
12 1941-05-25 62.1 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1526 39.38% Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1 1503 33.05% 27.57%
13 1941-06-01 61.7 @ Traktor Stalingrad 1 1490 31.36% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1525 41.11% 27.52%
14 1941-04-27 61.5 Dynamo Kyiv 3 1436 28.73% @ Traktor Stalingrad 2 1491 43.87% 27.40%
15 1941-06-08 61.4 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1525 41.95% Dynamo Kyiv 1 1484 30.56% 27.49%
16 1941-06-24 61.1 Traktor Stalingrad 3 1490 36.19% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 2 1490 36.20% 27.61%
17 1941-06-01 60.2 Zenit Leningrad 3 1467 34.85% @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 2 1477 37.55% 27.60%
18 1941-05-21 60.1 @ Traktor Stalingrad 1 1491 37.38% Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1 1483 35.02% 27.60%
19 1941-06-06 59.5 Dinamo Minsk 2 1442 23.46% @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 1 1543 49.62% 26.92%
20 1941-06-13 59.5 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1590 51.81% Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 2 1471 21.55% 26.65%
21 1941-05-11 59.4 @ Traktor Stalingrad 1 1490 39.78% Spartak Leningrad 1 1465 32.66% 27.56%
22 1941-06-05 59.3 Stakhanovets Stalino 2 1458 13.08% @ Dynamo Moscow 0 1686 62.59% 24.33%
23 1941-04-27 58.9 @ Spartak Kharkiv 1 1448 29.96% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1494 42.58% 27.47%
24 1941-06-07 58.5 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1 1471 37.68% Spartak Leningrad 1 1460 34.72% 27.60%
25 1941-06-10 58.4 Dynamo Moscow 3 1667 61.66% @ Dinamo Minsk 2 1449 13.74% 24.60%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-06-03 38.5 Dynamo Kyiv 3 1469 45.07% @ Sparta Odessa 0 1405 27.60% 27.32%
2 1941-05-02 39.7 Dynamo Moscow 4 1643 62.64% @ Sparta Odessa 0 1414 13.05% 24.31%
3 1941-06-16 41.5 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1535 47.88% Spartak Leningrad 0 1448 25.02% 27.10%
4 1941-04-27 42.3 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1578 51.79% Stakhanovets Stalino 0 1458 21.56% 26.65%
5 1941-05-21 43.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 7 1662 63.06% Spartak Kharkiv 0 1428 12.76% 24.18%
6 1941-05-22 43.9 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1509 40.41% Dinamo Minsk 0 1480 32.05% 27.55%
7 1941-05-11 44.0 @ Stakhanovets Stalino 1 1441 41.32% Sparta Odessa 0 1404 31.17% 27.52%
8 1941-06-12 44.1 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1571 47.92% Dynamo Kyiv 0 1484 24.98% 27.09%
9 1941-05-26 44.3 Stakhanovets Stalino 1 1462 43.19% @ Spartak Kharkiv 0 1412 29.37% 27.44%
10 1941-06-10 44.4 @ Traktor Stalingrad 1 1482 45.35% Spartak Kharkiv 0 1416 27.34% 27.30%
11 1941-06-03 44.6 Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 1 1504 47.44% @ Spartak Kharkiv 0 1420 25.42% 27.14%
12 1941-05-30 44.7 @ Spartak Kharkiv 2 1407 29.55% Dinamo Minsk 0 1455 43.00% 27.44%
13 1941-06-12 44.7 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1525 44.26% @ Zenit Leningrad 0 1466 28.36% 27.38%
14 1941-06-01 44.8 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 2 1533 45.09% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 0 1468 27.59% 27.32%
15 1941-05-03 45.2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1590 48.34% Dinamo Minsk 0 1499 24.61% 27.05%
16 1941-06-16 45.7 @ Spartak Kharkiv 2 1410 28.09% Dynamo Kyiv 0 1471 44.56% 27.36%
17 1941-05-02 45.8 Spartak Moscow 5 1582 53.38% @ Spartak Kharkiv 1 1448 20.21% 26.41%
18 1941-05-02 46.6 @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 1 1494 42.77% Stakhanovets Stalino 0 1447 29.77% 27.46%
19 1941-05-21 46.8 @ Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 3 1495 47.40% Sparta Odessa 1 1412 25.46% 27.14%
20 1941-05-18 48.5 Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 3 1533 49.13% @ Spartak Kharkiv 1 1436 23.89% 26.97%
21 1941-06-01 48.8 Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1580 50.59% @ Spartak Leningrad 1 1471 22.61% 26.80%
22 1941-05-18 49.3 Dynamo Leningrad 3 1500 43.63% @ Stakhanovets Stalino 1 1447 28.96% 27.41%
23 1941-05-11 49.9 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1603 50.64% Profsoyuzy-2 Moscow 0 1493 22.56% 26.80%
24 1941-05-03 50.0 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1493 30.87% @ Krasnaya Armiya Moscow 0 1532 41.63% 27.51%
25 1941-05-11 50.5 Dinamo Minsk 1 1486 34.84% @ Profsoyuzy-1 Moscow 0 1496 37.56% 27.60%