1929 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Barcelona

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Barcelona

6.76 points above expected

25 points · 18.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Racing Santander

8.51 points below expected

9 points · 17.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Barcelona	18	11	3	4	25	37	23	+14	18.2	+6.76
2	Real Madrid	18	11	1	6	23	40	27	+13	18.5	+4.51
3	Athletic Bilbao	18	8	4	6	20	43	33	+10	19.1	+0.94
4	Real Sociedad	18	8	4	6	20	46	41	+5	18.2	+1.83
5	Arenas de Getxo	18	8	3	7	19	32	39	-7	17.6	+1.38
6	Atletico Madrid	18	8	2	8	18	43	41	+2	18.0	-0.04
7	Espanol	18	7	4	7	18	32	38	-6	17.5	+0.51
8	Europa	18	6	4	8	16	45	49	-4	17.8	-1.79
9	Real Union	18	5	2	11	12	40	42	-2	17.6	-5.59
10	Racing Santander	18	3	3	12	9	25	50	-25	17.5	-8.51

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Real Madrid	1656	23	18.49	+4.51	93.0%	10	13	16	18	21	25	28
Barcelona	1655	25	18.24	+6.76	99.0%	10	14	16	18	20	23	26
Athletic Bilbao	1651	20	19.06	+0.94	66.0%	9	12	17	19	21	25	27
Real Sociedad	1647	20	18.17	+1.83	76.0%	11	13	16	18	20	24	28
Espanol	1641	18	17.49	+0.51	62.0%	9	12	15	17	20	24	29
Arenas de Getxo	1639	19	17.62	+1.38	68.0%	8	11	15	18	20	23	25
Atletico Madrid	1636	18	18.04	-0.04	58.0%	8	13	16	18	20	22	23
Europa	1635	16	17.79	-1.79	24.0%	7	12	17	18	20	23	25
Real Union	1635	12	17.59	-5.59	4.0%	10	13	15	17	20	24	27
Racing Santander	1618	9	17.51	-8.51	1.0%	8	12	15	18	20	23	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADG	AB	AM	BAR	ESP	EUR	RS	RM	RS	RU
Arenas de Getxo	—	2-0-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.83	2-0-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 2.87
Athletic Bilbao	0-0-2 2.94	—	1-1-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.93
Atletico Madrid	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.78	—	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.87	2-0-0 2.95	0-0-2 2.81	0-1-1 2.84	2-0-0 2.83
Barcelona	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.89	—	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.91	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.85	2-0-0 2.91
Espanol	0-0-2 2.87	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.85	—	2-0-0 2.86	1-1-0 2.97	1-0-1 2.82	0-2-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.87
Europa	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.82	0-0-2 2.87	—	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.80	1-1-0 2.84
Racing Santander	1-0-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.74	0-0-2 2.78	0-0-2 2.81	0-1-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.77	—	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.80
Real Madrid	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.86	2-0-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 3.00	—	1-0-1 2.86	2-0-0 2.92
Real Sociedad	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.88	0-2-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.87	—	2-0-0 2.91
Real Union	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.89	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.89	2-0-0 2.92	0-0-2 2.81	0-0-2 2.82	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	2.22%	4.44%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	15.56%
1	2.22%	8.89%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	4.44%	26.67%
2	4.44%	5.56%	3.33%	6.11%	0.56%	1.67%	21.67%
3	4.44%	2.78%	6.11%	3.33%	1.11%	0.56%	18.33%
4	2.22%	2.78%	0.56%	1.11%	—	1.67%	8.33%
5+	1.11%	4.44%	1.67%	0.56%	1.67%	—	9.44%
Total	15.56%	26.67%	21.67%	18.33%	8.33%	9.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.13
Mean allowed	2.13
StdDev scored	1.70
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	4.26
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.094
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	44.44%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	—	16.67%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	0.94
StdDev allowed	1.89
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.276
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	2.20
StdDev allowed	1.82
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.203
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Atletico Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	4.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.413
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	1.51
StdDev allowed	1.49
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.242
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	2.40
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.402
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	27.78%
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	—	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	—	22.22%	100%

Europa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	2.72
StdDev scored	1.72
StdDev allowed	1.45
Mean total goals/game	5.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.059
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	1.69
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.332
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	55.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Real Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	1.69
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.145
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Real Sociedad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.56
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	2.01
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.022
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	—	—	22.22%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	—	22.22%	27.78%	44.44%	5.56%	—	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.90
StdDev allowed	0.91
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.114
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Barcelona	25	18.2	+6.76
2	Real Madrid	23	18.5	+4.51
3	Real Sociedad	20	18.2	+1.83
4	Arenas de Getxo	19	17.6	+1.38
5	Athletic Bilbao	20	19.1	+0.94

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Racing Santander	9	17.5	-8.51
2	Real Union	12	17.6	-5.59
3	Europa	16	17.8	-1.79
4	Atletico Madrid	18	18.0	-0.04
5	Espanol	18	17.5	+0.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	6	Mar 10 – Apr 28	1 in 134
2	Barcelona	6	Apr 7 – May 30	1 in 131
3	Real Madrid	5	Feb 10 – Mar 10	1 in 83
4	Atletico Madrid	3	Mar 3 – Mar 24	1 in 12
5	Athletic Bilbao	3	Feb 17 – Mar 3	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Santander	7	Feb 12 – Mar 31	1 in 578
2	Real Union	6	May 19 – Jun 23	1 in 126
3	Atletico Madrid	4	Mar 31 – Apr 28	1 in 57
4	Real Madrid	3	Apr 28 – May 19	1 in 12
5	Arenas de Getxo	3	Jun 16 – Jun 30	1 in 11

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Barcelona	11	Apr 7 – Jun 30	1 in 865
2	Arenas de Getxo	9	Feb 24 – May 5	1 in 104
3	Real Madrid	5	Feb 10 – Mar 10	1 in 17
4	Racing Santander	3	May 12 – May 30	1 in 15
5	Atletico Madrid	4	Jun 2 – Jun 23	1 in 15

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Santander	7	Feb 12 – Mar 31	1 in 59
2	Espanol	6	May 26 – Jun 23	1 in 22
3	Real Union	6	May 19 – Jun 23	1 in 21
4	Athletic Bilbao	4	May 5 – May 30	1 in 17
5	Atletico Madrid	5	Mar 31 – May 9	1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Barcelona	11.00%	9.00%	16.00%	18.00%	6.00%	10.00%	11.00%	7.00%	6.00%	6.00%
Real Madrid	15.00%	14.00%	9.00%	13.00%	12.00%	6.00%	8.00%	13.00%	4.00%	6.00%
Athletic Bilbao	21.00%	11.00%	14.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	4.00%	5.00%	8.00%
Real Sociedad	13.00%	11.00%	2.00%	11.00%	13.00%	11.00%	9.00%	11.00%	13.00%	6.00%
Arenas de Getxo	8.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	6.00%	7.00%	13.00%	15.00%	14.00%
Atletico Madrid	5.00%	13.00%	11.00%	8.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.00%	7.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Espanol	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	6.00%	13.00%	12.00%	8.00%	8.00%	20.00%	12.00%
Europa	3.00%	11.00%	12.00%	8.00%	10.00%	12.00%	15.00%	12.00%	8.00%	9.00%
Real Union	10.00%	7.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%	6.00%	13.00%	13.00%	12.00%	15.00%
Racing Santander	8.00%	6.00%	12.00%	7.00%	6.00%	12.00%	10.00%	12.00%	7.00%	20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Won relegation playoff	Lost relegation playoff
Athletic Bilbao	92.0%	8.0%	—
Atletico Madrid	96.0%	4.0%	—
Real Madrid	94.0%	5.0%	1.0%
Barcelona	94.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Real Sociedad	94.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Espanol	88.0%	8.0%	4.0%
Europa	91.0%	5.0%	4.0%
Arenas de Getxo	86.0%	8.0%	6.0%
Racing Santander	80.0%	13.0%	7.0%
Real Union	85.0%	8.0%	7.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1929-02-10	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1641	1641	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-1.7	0
1929-02-10	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1641	1641	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+1.7	3
1929-02-10	Real Union	W 3-2	1641	1641	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+0.5	3
1929-02-10	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1641	1641	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-0.5	0
1929-02-10	Europa	W 5-0	1641	1641	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+2.7	3
1929-02-10	@ Real Madrid	L 0-5	1641	1641	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-2.7	0
1929-02-10	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1641	1641	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-0.3	1
1929-02-10	@ Real Sociedad	D 1-1	1641	1641	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+0.3	1
1929-02-12	Barcelona	L 0-2	1641	1641	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-3.6	0
1929-02-12	@ Racing Santander	W 2-0	1641	1641	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+3.6	3
1929-02-17	Espanol	W 9-0	1642	1642	67.4%	13.6%	19.1%	+4.7	4
1929-02-17	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-9	1642	1642	19.1%	13.6%	67.4%	-4.7	3
1929-02-17	Real Sociedad	L 0-3	1643	1641	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	-5.3	3
1929-02-17	@ Atletico Madrid	W 3-0	1641	1643	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	+5.3	4
1929-02-17	Real Madrid	L 1-2	1645	1644	67.5%	13.5%	19.0%	-1.8	3
1929-02-17	@ Barcelona	W 2-1	1644	1645	19.0%	13.5%	67.5%	+1.8	6
1929-02-17	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-2	1639	1640	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+1.2	3
1929-02-17	@ Europa	L 2-5	1640	1639	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-1.2	0
1929-02-17	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1641	1638	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+1.0	3
1929-02-17	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1638	1641	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-1.0	0
1929-02-24	Real Union	D 1-1	1638	1642	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	-0.3	1
1929-02-24	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1642	1638	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	+0.3	4
1929-02-24	Europa	W 3-1	1637	1640	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	+1.0	6
1929-02-24	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1640	1637	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	-1.0	3
1929-02-24	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1637	1646	66.4%	13.8%	19.8%	-6.8	0
1929-02-24	@ Racing Santander	W 4-0	1646	1637	19.8%	13.8%	66.4%	+6.8	7
1929-02-24	Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1646	1638	68.2%	13.4%	18.4%	+0.5	9
1929-02-24	@ Real Madrid	L 1-2	1638	1646	18.4%	13.4%	68.2%	-0.5	3
1929-02-24	Barcelona	W 3-0	1646	1643	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+1.6	7
1929-02-24	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-3	1643	1646	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-1.6	3
1929-03-03	Europa	W 2-0	1653	1639	68.9%	13.2%	17.9%	+1.1	10
1929-03-03	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-2	1639	1653	17.9%	13.2%	68.9%	-1.1	3
1929-03-03	Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1641	1638	67.8%	13.5%	18.8%	-0.2	4
1929-03-03	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1638	1641	18.8%	13.5%	67.8%	+0.2	2
1929-03-03	Racing Santander	W 3-0	1638	1630	68.3%	13.4%	18.4%	+1.6	9
1929-03-03	@ Espanol	L 0-3	1630	1638	18.4%	13.4%	68.3%	-1.6	0
1929-03-03	Real Sociedad	W 2-1	1646	1648	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.6	12
1929-03-03	@ Real Madrid	L 1-2	1648	1646	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.6	7
1929-03-03	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1642	1637	67.9%	13.4%	18.6%	-1.8	4
1929-03-03	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1637	1642	18.6%	13.4%	67.9%	+1.8	6
1929-03-10	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1638	1654	65.7%	13.9%	20.4%	+0.6	5
1929-03-10	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-1	1654	1638	20.4%	13.9%	65.7%	-0.6	10
1929-03-10	Barcelona	W 4-1	1639	1641	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+1.4	9
1929-03-10	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-4	1641	1639	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-1.4	4
1929-03-10	Real Union	D 3-3	1638	1640	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-0.2	4
1929-03-10	@ Europa	D 3-3	1640	1638	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+0.2	5
1929-03-10	Real Madrid	L 1-3	1628	1647	65.4%	13.9%	20.6%	-3.0	0
1929-03-10	@ Racing Santander	W 3-1	1647	1628	20.6%	13.9%	65.4%	+3.1	15
1929-03-10	Espanol	D 1-1	1647	1640	68.2%	13.4%	18.4%	-0.4	8
1929-03-10	@ Real Sociedad	D 1-1	1640	1647	18.4%	13.4%	68.2%	+0.3	10
1929-03-24	Real Sociedad	W 3-0	1639	1647	66.6%	13.7%	19.7%	+1.7	8
1929-03-24	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-3	1647	1639	19.7%	13.7%	66.6%	-1.7	8
1929-03-24	Racing Santander	W 4-0	1640	1625	69.0%	13.2%	17.8%	+2.0	12
1929-03-24	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-4	1625	1640	17.8%	13.2%	69.0%	-2.0	0
1929-03-24	Europa	W 5-2	1640	1638	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	+1.2	7
1929-03-24	@ Barcelona	L 2-5	1638	1640	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	-1.2	4
1929-03-24	Real Madrid	W 4-0	1640	1650	66.4%	13.8%	19.9%	+2.3	13
1929-03-24	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1650	1640	19.9%	13.8%	66.4%	-2.3	15
1929-03-24	Athletic Bilbao	W 6-3	1640	1653	66.0%	13.8%	20.1%	+1.2	8
1929-03-24	@ Real Union	L 3-6	1653	1640	20.1%	13.8%	66.0%	-1.2	10
1929-03-31	Barcelona	W 5-1	1652	1641	68.6%	13.3%	18.1%	+1.7	13
1929-03-31	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1641	1652	18.1%	13.3%	68.6%	-1.7	7
1929-03-31	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1642	1641	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	-1.8	13
1929-03-31	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1641	1642	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	+1.8	11
1929-03-31	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1636	1642	66.8%	13.7%	19.6%	+1.4	7
1929-03-31	@ Europa	L 1-4	1642	1636	19.6%	13.7%	66.8%	-1.4	12
1929-03-31	Real Union	W 2-0	1648	1642	68.0%	13.4%	18.6%	+1.1	18
1929-03-31	@ Real Madrid	L 0-2	1642	1648	18.6%	13.4%	68.0%	-1.1	8
1929-03-31	Racing Santander	W 8-1	1645	1623	69.7%	13.0%	17.3%	+2.7	11
1929-03-31	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-8	1623	1645	17.3%	13.0%	69.7%	-2.7	0
1929-04-07	Real Madrid	W 3-2	1642	1649	66.7%	13.7%	19.6%	+0.5	14
1929-04-07	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1649	1642	19.6%	13.7%	66.7%	-0.5	18
1929-04-07	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1641	1654	66.0%	13.8%	20.1%	-1.7	12
1929-04-07	@ Atletico Madrid	W 3-2	1654	1641	20.1%	13.8%	66.0%	+1.7	16
1929-04-07	Espanol	W 1-0	1639	1640	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+0.6	10
1929-04-07	@ Barcelona	L 0-1	1640	1639	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-0.6	13
1929-04-07	Europa	W 3-2	1620	1638	65.6%	13.9%	20.5%	+0.6	3
1929-04-07	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1638	1620	20.5%	13.9%	65.6%	-0.6	7
1929-04-07	Real Sociedad	L 2-3	1640	1648	66.6%	13.7%	19.7%	-1.7	8
1929-04-07	@ Real Union	W 3-2	1648	1640	19.7%	13.7%	66.6%	+1.7	14
1929-04-21	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1643	1621	69.7%	13.0%	17.3%	+0.5	17
1929-04-21	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1621	1643	17.3%	13.0%	69.7%	-0.5	3
1929-04-21	Atletico Madrid	W 3-2	1640	1639	67.5%	13.5%	19.0%	+0.5	16
1929-04-21	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1639	1640	19.0%	13.5%	67.5%	-0.5	12
1929-04-21	Real Sociedad	W 4-3	1637	1650	66.1%	13.8%	20.1%	+0.6	10
1929-04-21	@ Europa	L 3-4	1650	1637	20.1%	13.8%	66.1%	-0.6	14
1929-04-21	Athletic Bilbao	W 5-1	1648	1656	66.6%	13.7%	19.7%	+1.9	21
1929-04-21	@ Real Madrid	L 1-5	1656	1648	19.7%	13.7%	66.6%	-1.9	16
1929-04-21	Barcelona	L 1-2	1639	1640	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	-1.8	8
1929-04-21	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1640	1639	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	+1.8	13
1929-04-28	Real Sociedad	W 4-2	1654	1649	67.9%	13.4%	18.7%	+0.9	19
1929-04-28	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-4	1649	1654	18.7%	13.4%	67.9%	-0.9	14
1929-04-28	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1639	1643	66.9%	13.7%	19.4%	-1.8	12
1929-04-28	@ Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1643	1639	19.4%	13.7%	66.9%	+1.8	20
1929-04-28	Racing Santander	W 5-1	1642	1621	69.6%	13.1%	17.4%	+1.6	16
1929-04-28	@ Barcelona	L 1-5	1621	1642	17.4%	13.1%	69.6%	-1.6	3
1929-04-28	Real Madrid	W 5-2	1638	1650	66.1%	13.8%	20.1%	+1.3	13
1929-04-28	@ Europa	L 2-5	1650	1638	20.1%	13.8%	66.1%	-1.3	21
1929-04-28	Espanol	W 4-3	1637	1640	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.5	11
1929-04-28	@ Real Union	L 3-4	1640	1637	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	-0.5	16
1929-05-05	Europa	D 2-2	1645	1639	68.1%	13.4%	18.5%	-0.3	21
1929-05-05	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1639	1645	18.5%	13.4%	68.1%	+0.2	14
1929-05-05	Athletic Bilbao	W 4-1	1640	1655	65.8%	13.9%	20.3%	+1.5	19
1929-05-05	@ Espanol	L 1-4	1655	1640	20.3%	13.9%	65.8%	-1.5	19
1929-05-05	Real Union	L 1-3	1619	1637	65.4%	14.0%	20.6%	-3.1	3
1929-05-05	@ Racing Santander	W 3-1	1637	1619	20.6%	14.0%	65.4%	+3.0	14
1929-05-09	Espanol	L 0-3	1639	1641	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-5.2	14
1929-05-09	@ Europa	W 3-0	1641	1639	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+5.2	22
1929-05-09	Barcelona	L 0-1	1649	1643	68.0%	13.4%	18.6%	-1.9	21
1929-05-09	@ Real Madrid	W 1-0	1643	1649	18.6%	13.4%	68.0%	+1.9	19
1929-05-09	Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1648	1637	68.6%	13.3%	18.1%	-0.2	15
1929-05-09	@ Real Sociedad	D 3-3	1637	1648	18.1%	13.3%	68.6%	+0.2	13
1929-05-12	Racing Santander	D 0-0	1653	1616	71.2%	12.6%	16.2%	-0.4	20
1929-05-12	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 0-0	1616	1653	16.2%	12.6%	71.2%	+0.4	4
1929-05-12	Arenas de Getxo	W 7-1	1641	1645	66.9%	13.7%	19.4%	+2.7	17
1929-05-12	@ Real Union	L 1-7	1645	1641	19.4%	13.7%	66.9%	-2.7	21
1929-05-19	Real Union	W 3-1	1637	1643	66.8%	13.7%	19.5%	+1.0	16
1929-05-19	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1643	1637	19.5%	13.7%	66.8%	-1.0	17
1929-05-19	Real Madrid	W 5-4	1648	1647	67.5%	13.5%	18.9%	+0.5	18
1929-05-19	@ Real Sociedad	L 4-5	1647	1648	18.9%	13.5%	67.5%	-0.5	21
1929-05-26	Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1653	1642	68.5%	13.3%	18.2%	-1.7	20
1929-05-26	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1642	1653	18.2%	13.3%	68.5%	+1.7	24
1929-05-26	Atletico Madrid	W 4-0	1645	1638	68.1%	13.4%	18.5%	+2.1	22
1929-05-26	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1638	1645	18.5%	13.4%	68.1%	-2.1	16
1929-05-26	Real Sociedad	D 1-1	1647	1648	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-0.3	23
1929-05-26	@ Espanol	D 1-1	1648	1647	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+0.3	19
1929-05-26	Racing Santander	D 2-2	1646	1616	70.5%	12.8%	16.7%	-0.3	22
1929-05-26	@ Real Madrid	D 2-2	1616	1646	16.7%	12.8%	70.5%	+0.3	5
1929-05-26	Europa	L 2-3	1642	1634	68.3%	13.4%	18.4%	-1.7	17
1929-05-26	@ Real Union	W 3-2	1634	1642	18.4%	13.4%	68.3%	+1.7	17
1929-05-30	Real Madrid	L 0-3	1636	1646	66.4%	13.8%	19.9%	-5.2	16
1929-05-30	@ Atletico Madrid	W 3-0	1646	1636	19.9%	13.8%	66.4%	+5.2	25
1929-05-30	Real Sociedad	W 1-0	1647	1649	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.6	25
1929-05-30	@ Barcelona	L 0-1	1649	1647	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.6	19
1929-05-30	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1636	1651	65.8%	13.9%	20.3%	-0.3	18
1929-05-30	@ Europa	D 1-1	1651	1636	20.3%	13.9%	65.8%	+0.3	21
1929-05-30	Espanol	D 1-1	1617	1646	64.2%	14.2%	21.6%	-0.3	6
1929-05-30	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1646	1617	21.6%	14.2%	64.2%	+0.3	24
1929-06-02	Real Union	W 2-1	1651	1640	68.5%	13.3%	18.2%	+0.5	24
1929-06-02	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1640	1651	18.2%	13.3%	68.5%	-0.5	17
1929-06-02	Barcelona	D 1-1	1635	1648	66.1%	13.8%	20.1%	-0.3	19
1929-06-02	@ Europa	D 1-1	1648	1635	20.1%	13.8%	66.1%	+0.3	26
1929-06-02	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1616	1631	65.9%	13.9%	20.3%	-1.8	6
1929-06-02	@ Racing Santander	W 2-1	1631	1616	20.3%	13.9%	65.9%	+1.8	19
1929-06-02	Espanol	W 2-0	1651	1647	67.9%	13.4%	18.7%	+1.1	28
1929-06-02	@ Real Madrid	L 0-2	1647	1651	18.7%	13.4%	67.9%	-1.1	24
1929-06-02	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1648	1644	67.8%	13.5%	18.7%	+0.5	22
1929-06-02	@ Real Sociedad	L 2-3	1644	1648	18.7%	13.5%	67.8%	-0.5	24
1929-06-09	Espanol	W 3-0	1644	1645	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+1.7	27
1929-06-09	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-3	1645	1644	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-1.7	24
1929-06-09	Europa	W 5-4	1633	1635	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.5	22
1929-06-09	@ Atletico Madrid	L 4-5	1635	1633	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.5	19
1929-06-09	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1648	1652	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	+1.7	29
1929-06-09	@ Barcelona	L 0-3	1652	1648	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	-1.7	24
1929-06-09	Real Sociedad	W 6-1	1614	1649	63.7%	14.2%	22.1%	+2.6	9
1929-06-09	@ Racing Santander	L 1-6	1649	1614	22.1%	14.2%	63.7%	-2.5	22
1929-06-09	Real Madrid	L 0-2	1640	1652	66.1%	13.8%	20.1%	-3.6	17
1929-06-09	@ Real Union	W 2-0	1652	1640	20.1%	13.8%	66.1%	+3.6	31
1929-06-16	Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1650	1633	69.2%	13.2%	17.7%	-0.2	25
1929-06-16	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 3-3	1633	1650	17.7%	13.2%	69.2%	+0.2	23
1929-06-16	Barcelona	D 1-1	1644	1650	66.8%	13.7%	19.6%	-0.3	25
1929-06-16	@ Espanol	D 1-1	1650	1644	19.6%	13.7%	66.8%	+0.3	30
1929-06-16	Racing Santander	W 4-1	1635	1617	69.2%	13.1%	17.6%	+1.3	22
1929-06-16	@ Europa	L 1-4	1617	1635	17.6%	13.1%	69.2%	-1.3	9
1929-06-16	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1656	1645	68.5%	13.3%	18.2%	+1.1	34
1929-06-16	@ Real Madrid	L 0-2	1645	1656	18.2%	13.3%	68.5%	-1.1	27
1929-06-16	Real Union	W 3-2	1646	1636	68.4%	13.3%	18.2%	+0.5	25
1929-06-16	@ Real Sociedad	L 2-3	1636	1646	18.2%	13.3%	68.4%	-0.5	17
1929-06-23	Real Madrid	W 2-0	1650	1657	66.7%	13.7%	19.6%	+1.2	28
1929-06-23	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-2	1657	1650	19.6%	13.7%	66.7%	-1.2	34
1929-06-23	Espanol	W 7-1	1633	1643	66.3%	13.8%	19.9%	+2.7	26
1929-06-23	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-7	1643	1633	19.9%	13.8%	66.3%	-2.7	25
1929-06-23	Real Union	W 4-1	1650	1636	68.9%	13.2%	17.9%	+1.3	33
1929-06-23	@ Barcelona	L 1-4	1636	1650	17.9%	13.2%	68.9%	-1.3	17
1929-06-23	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-1	1616	1644	64.4%	14.1%	21.5%	+2.0	12
1929-06-23	@ Racing Santander	L 1-5	1644	1616	21.5%	14.1%	64.4%	-2.0	27
1929-06-23	Europa	W 5-4	1647	1636	68.5%	13.3%	18.2%	+0.5	28
1929-06-23	@ Real Sociedad	L 4-5	1636	1647	18.2%	13.3%	68.5%	-0.5	22
1929-06-30	Barcelona	L 0-2	1642	1652	66.4%	13.8%	19.8%	-3.6	27
1929-06-30	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1652	1642	19.8%	13.8%	66.4%	+3.6	36

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1929-05-26	18.21%	Arenas de Getxo	1642	3	@ Athletic Bilbao	1653	2
2	1929-05-26	18.38%	Europa	1634	3	@ Real Union	1642	2
3	1929-05-09	18.60%	Barcelona	1643	1	@ Real Madrid	1649	0
4	1929-03-03	18.65%	Atletico Madrid	1637	2	@ Real Union	1642	1
5	1929-02-17	18.87%	Real Sociedad	1641	3	@ Atletico Madrid	1643	0
6	1929-03-31	18.90%	Arenas de Getxo	1641	2	@ Espanol	1642	1
7	1929-02-17	18.96%	Real Madrid	1644	2	@ Barcelona	1645	1
8	1929-02-10	19.04%	Atletico Madrid	1641	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1641	2
9	1929-02-12	19.04%	Barcelona	1641	2	@ Racing Santander	1641	0
10	1929-04-21	19.13%	Barcelona	1640	2	@ Real Union	1639	1
11	1929-05-09	19.22%	Espanol	1641	3	@ Europa	1639	0
12	1929-04-28	19.43%	Arenas de Getxo	1643	2	@ Atletico Madrid	1639	1
13	1929-04-07	19.66%	Real Sociedad	1648	3	@ Real Union	1640	2
14	1929-06-30	19.83%	Barcelona	1652	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1642	0
15	1929-02-24	19.84%	Athletic Bilbao	1646	4	@ Racing Santander	1637	0
16	1929-05-30	19.87%	Real Madrid	1646	3	@ Atletico Madrid	1636	0
17	1929-06-09	20.08%	Real Madrid	1652	2	@ Real Union	1640	0
18	1929-04-07	20.14%	Athletic Bilbao	1654	3	@ Atletico Madrid	1641	2
19	1929-06-02	20.28%	Atletico Madrid	1631	2	@ Racing Santander	1616	1
20	1929-03-10	20.62%	Real Madrid	1647	3	@ Racing Santander	1628	1
21	1929-05-05	20.62%	Real Union	1637	3	@ Racing Santander	1619	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1929-02-24	6.77	Athletic Bilbao	4	1646	19.84%	@ Racing Santander	0	1637	66.40%
2	1929-02-17	5.27	Real Sociedad	3	1641	18.87%	@ Atletico Madrid	0	1643	67.62%
3	1929-05-09	5.24	Espanol	3	1641	19.22%	@ Europa	0	1639	67.18%
4	1929-05-30	5.18	Real Madrid	3	1646	19.87%	@ Atletico Madrid	0	1636	66.36%
5	1929-02-17	4.67	@ Athletic Bilbao	9	1642	67.39%	Espanol	0	1642	19.06%
6	1929-02-12	3.62	Barcelona	2	1641	19.04%	@ Racing Santander	0	1641	67.41%
7	1929-06-30	3.57	Barcelona	2	1652	19.83%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1642	66.41%
8	1929-06-09	3.56	Real Madrid	2	1652	20.08%	@ Real Union	0	1640	66.10%
9	1929-03-10	3.05	Real Madrid	3	1647	20.62%	@ Racing Santander	1	1628	65.44%
10	1929-05-05	3.05	Real Union	3	1637	20.62%	@ Racing Santander	1	1619	65.43%
11	1929-03-31	2.74	@ Real Sociedad	8	1645	69.65%	Racing Santander	1	1623	17.32%
12	1929-06-23	2.73	@ Atletico Madrid	7	1633	66.35%	Espanol	1	1643	19.88%
13	1929-02-10	2.67	@ Real Madrid	5	1641	67.41%	Europa	0	1641	19.04%
14	1929-05-12	2.67	@ Real Union	7	1641	66.94%	Arenas de Getxo	1	1645	19.41%
15	1929-06-09	2.56	@ Racing Santander	6	1614	63.71%	Real Sociedad	1	1649	22.05%
16	1929-03-24	2.26	@ Espanol	4	1640	66.37%	Real Madrid	0	1650	19.86%
17	1929-05-26	2.10	@ Barcelona	4	1645	68.14%	Atletico Madrid	0	1638	18.47%
18	1929-06-23	2.04	@ Racing Santander	5	1616	64.36%	Arenas de Getxo	1	1644	21.50%
19	1929-03-24	2.02	@ Atletico Madrid	4	1640	68.97%	Racing Santander	0	1625	17.84%
20	1929-05-09	1.94	Barcelona	1	1643	18.60%	@ Real Madrid	0	1649	67.98%
21	1929-04-21	1.86	@ Real Madrid	5	1648	66.62%	Athletic Bilbao	1	1656	19.66%
22	1929-03-31	1.82	Arenas de Getxo	2	1641	18.90%	@ Espanol	1	1642	67.59%
23	1929-03-03	1.82	Atletico Madrid	2	1637	18.65%	@ Real Union	1	1642	67.91%
24	1929-02-17	1.81	Real Madrid	2	1644	18.96%	@ Barcelona	1	1645	67.51%
25	1929-04-21	1.80	Barcelona	2	1640	19.13%	@ Real Union	1	1639	67.30%