1929-30 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

30 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Atletico Madrid

12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Athletic Bilbao

11.46 points above expected

30 points · 18.54 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Atletico Madrid

5.99 points below expected

12 points · 17.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	18	12	6	0	30	63	28	+35	18.5	+11.46
2	Barcelona	18	11	1	6	23	46	36	+10	18.5	+4.51
3	Arenas de Getxo	18	9	2	7	20	51	40	+11	17.9	+2.15
4	Espanol	18	9	2	7	20	40	33	+7	18.1	+1.90
5	Real Madrid	18	7	3	8	17	45	42	+3	17.9	-0.87
6	Real Union	18	6	5	7	17	48	52	-4	17.7	-0.73
7	Real Sociedad	18	5	4	9	14	34	37	-3	18.0	-4.04
8	Racing Santander	18	7	0	11	14	32	58	-26	17.5	-3.51
9	Europa	18	6	1	11	13	29	44	-15	17.9	-4.88
10	Atletico Madrid	18	5	2	11	12	32	50	-18	18.0	-5.99

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1706	30	18.54	+11.46	100.0%	10	13	16	19	21	24	25
Barcelona	1691	23	18.49	+4.51	93.0%	12	13	16	18	21	24	28
Real Madrid	1682	17	17.87	-0.87	47.0%	8	12	15	18	21	23	25
Arenas de Getxo	1678	20	17.85	+2.15	78.0%	9	12	16	18	20	23	25
Espanol	1678	20	18.10	+1.90	76.0%	9	13	16	18	20	23	27
Real Union	1670	17	17.73	-0.73	44.0%	9	11	15	18	20	23	25
Real Sociedad	1667	14	18.04	-4.04	11.0%	10	13	15	18	20	24	26
Atletico Madrid	1660	12	17.99	-5.99	5.0%	8	12	16	18	20	24	29
Europa	1658	13	17.88	-4.88	13.0%	10	13	16	18	20	23	29
Racing Santander	1648	14	17.51	-3.51	19.0%	10	13	15	18	19	23	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADG	AB	AM	BAR	ESP	EUR	RS	RM	RS	RU
Arenas de Getxo	—	0-1-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.93	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.93	2-0-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.87
Athletic Bilbao	1-1-0 2.98	—	2-0-0 3.02	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.97	1-1-0 2.96	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.92	1-1-0 2.99
Atletico Madrid	0-0-2 2.84	0-0-2 2.74	—	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.86
Barcelona	2-0-0 2.95	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.02	—	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.94	2-0-0 2.91	2-0-0 2.97
Espanol	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.79	—	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.88
Europa	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.79	1-0-1 2.83	—	1-0-1 2.95	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.84
Racing Santander	0-0-2 2.82	0-0-2 2.66	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.82	—	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.79
Real Madrid	1-0-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.89	1-0-1 2.96	2-0-0 2.83	0-0-2 2.94	2-0-0 2.96	1-0-1 3.02	—	0-1-1 2.94	0-2-0 2.93
Real Sociedad	0-1-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.92	0-0-2 2.86	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.84	—	0-0-2 2.90
Real Union	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-0 2.91	0-0-2 2.80	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.99	0-2-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.87	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	2.22%	3.89%	2.22%	1.67%	3.33%	13.33%
1	2.22%	4.44%	5.56%	4.44%	1.67%	3.89%	22.22%
2	3.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.00%	2.22%	3.33%	25.56%
3	2.22%	4.44%	5.00%	3.33%	1.67%	1.11%	17.78%
4	1.67%	1.67%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	8.89%
5+	3.33%	3.89%	3.33%	1.11%	0.56%	—	12.22%
Total	13.33%	22.22%	25.56%	17.78%	8.89%	12.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	1.76
Mean total goals/game	4.67
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.160
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	38.89%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	5.56%	38.89%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.83
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	1.48
Mean total goals/game	5.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.143
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	38.89%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.50
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	0.98
Mean total goals/game	5.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.136
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Atletico Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	1.96
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.094
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.56
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.334
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	2.05
StdDev allowed	1.72
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.172
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	44.44%	16.67%	—	16.67%	100%

Europa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.72
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.271
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	33.33%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	38.89%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	3.22
StdDev scored	1.73
StdDev allowed	2.26
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.616
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Real Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	1.91
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.530
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Real Sociedad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.68
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.285
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	33.33%
3	—	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.67
Mean allowed	2.89
StdDev scored	1.78
StdDev allowed	1.57
Mean total goals/game	5.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.035
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	30	18.5	+11.46
2	Barcelona	23	18.5	+4.51
3	Arenas de Getxo	20	17.9	+2.15
4	Espanol	20	18.1	+1.90
5	Real Union	17	17.7	-0.73

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Atletico Madrid	12	18.0	-5.99
2	Europa	13	17.9	-4.88
3	Real Sociedad	14	18.0	-4.04
4	Racing Santander	14	17.5	-3.51
5	Real Madrid	17	17.9	-0.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Athletic Bilbao	7	Jan 19 – Mar 2	1 in 148
2	Barcelona	6	Dec 1 – Jan 5	1 in 104
3	Real Madrid	4	Jan 5 – Jan 26	1 in 64
4	Europa	3	Dec 22 – Jan 9	1 in 48
5	Real Union	3	Jan 12 – Jan 26	1 in 47

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Europa	6	Feb 9 – Mar 16	1 in 387
2	Real Sociedad	3	Feb 2 – Feb 16	1 in 44
3	Real Madrid	3	Dec 15 – Dec 29	1 in 12
4	Atletico Madrid	3	Jan 19 – Feb 2	1 in 11
5	Racing Santander	3	Dec 8 – Dec 22	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Athletic Bilbao	18	Dec 1 – Mar 30	1 in 223,082
2	Barcelona	7	Dec 1 – Jan 12	1 in 27
3	Espanol	4	Dec 8 – Dec 29	1 in 18
4	Real Union	4	Dec 1 – Dec 22	1 in 18
5	Real Madrid	4	Jan 5 – Jan 26	1 in 18

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Madrid	7	Dec 22 – Feb 2	1 in 85
2	Europa	6	Feb 9 – Mar 16	1 in 60
3	Real Madrid	5	Dec 1 – Dec 29	1 in 23
4	Real Union	5	Dec 8 – Jan 5	1 in 20
5	Real Sociedad	4	Dec 29 – Jan 19	1 in 19

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Athletic Bilbao	14.00%	13.00%	19.00%	7.00%	4.00%	10.00%	9.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Barcelona	13.00%	7.00%	12.00%	15.00%	8.00%	12.00%	8.00%	16.00%	4.00%	5.00%
Arenas de Getxo	11.00%	13.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	11.00%	9.00%	9.00%	11.00%	7.00%
Espanol	9.00%	12.00%	14.00%	9.00%	10.00%	13.00%	9.00%	4.00%	11.00%	9.00%
Real Madrid	10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	6.00%	9.00%	7.00%	7.00%	13.00%	13.00%
Real Union	8.00%	12.00%	13.00%	7.00%	7.00%	9.00%	14.00%	10.00%	7.00%	13.00%
Real Sociedad	12.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	13.00%	8.00%	11.00%	11.00%	9.00%	11.00%
Racing Santander	5.00%	6.00%	4.00%	10.00%	16.00%	13.00%	6.00%	14.00%	15.00%	11.00%
Europa	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	10.00%	12.00%	7.00%	15.00%	13.00%	5.00%	14.00%
Atletico Madrid	10.00%	8.00%	3.00%	13.00%	12.00%	8.00%	12.00%	7.00%	17.00%	10.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Barcelona	95.0%	5.0%
Arenas de Getxo	93.0%	7.0%
Athletic Bilbao	93.0%	7.0%
Espanol	91.0%	9.0%
Atletico Madrid	90.0%	10.0%
Racing Santander	89.0%	11.0%
Real Sociedad	89.0%	11.0%
Real Madrid	87.0%	13.0%
Real Union	87.0%	13.0%
Europa	86.0%	14.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1929-12-01	Real Madrid	W 2-1	1679	1681	71.0%	11.4%	17.6%	+0.5	3
1929-12-01	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1681	1679	17.6%	11.4%	71.0%	-0.5	0
1929-12-01	Europa	W 5-3	1671	1671	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+0.8	3
1929-12-01	@ Atletico Madrid	L 3-5	1671	1671	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-0.8	0
1929-12-01	Real Sociedad	W 3-0	1681	1677	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+1.5	3
1929-12-01	@ Barcelona	L 0-3	1677	1681	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.5	0
1929-12-01	Espanol	W 4-1	1662	1673	70.2%	11.5%	18.3%	+1.4	3
1929-12-01	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1673	1662	18.3%	11.5%	70.2%	-1.4	0
1929-12-01	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1673	1671	71.4%	11.4%	17.2%	+0.5	3
1929-12-01	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1671	1673	17.2%	11.4%	71.4%	-0.5	0
1929-12-08	Barcelona	L 1-3	1670	1682	70.0%	11.6%	18.4%	-3.4	0
1929-12-08	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1682	1670	18.4%	11.6%	70.0%	+3.4	6
1929-12-08	Atletico Madrid	W 1-0	1671	1672	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	+0.6	3
1929-12-08	@ Espanol	L 0-1	1672	1671	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	-0.6	3
1929-12-08	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1670	1680	70.3%	11.5%	18.2%	-0.3	1
1929-12-08	@ Europa	D 2-2	1680	1670	18.2%	11.5%	70.3%	+0.3	4
1929-12-08	Real Union	D 2-2	1681	1674	71.8%	11.3%	16.9%	-0.3	1
1929-12-08	@ Real Madrid	D 2-2	1674	1681	16.9%	11.3%	71.8%	+0.3	4
1929-12-08	Racing Santander	W 7-0	1675	1664	72.2%	11.2%	16.5%	+3.3	3
1929-12-08	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-7	1664	1675	16.5%	11.2%	72.2%	-3.3	3
1929-12-15	Real Sociedad	D 2-2	1680	1678	71.4%	11.4%	17.3%	-0.3	5
1929-12-15	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1678	1680	17.3%	11.4%	71.4%	+0.3	4
1929-12-15	Real Madrid	W 2-1	1672	1681	70.3%	11.5%	18.1%	+0.5	6
1929-12-15	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1681	1672	18.1%	11.5%	70.3%	-0.6	1
1929-12-15	Europa	W 2-1	1686	1670	72.6%	11.2%	16.2%	+0.5	9
1929-12-15	@ Barcelona	L 1-2	1670	1686	16.2%	11.2%	72.6%	-0.5	1
1929-12-15	Arenas de Getxo	L 2-5	1660	1667	70.6%	11.5%	17.9%	-4.2	3
1929-12-15	@ Racing Santander	W 5-2	1667	1660	17.9%	11.5%	70.6%	+4.2	3
1929-12-15	Espanol	D 3-3	1674	1672	71.4%	11.4%	17.2%	-0.2	5
1929-12-15	@ Real Union	D 3-3	1672	1674	17.2%	11.4%	71.4%	+0.2	4
1929-12-22	Europa	L 2-3	1671	1670	71.3%	11.4%	17.3%	-1.9	3
1929-12-22	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1670	1671	17.3%	11.4%	71.3%	+1.9	4
1929-12-22	Real Union	D 3-3	1672	1674	71.0%	11.4%	17.5%	-0.2	7
1929-12-22	@ Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1674	1672	17.5%	11.4%	71.0%	+0.2	6
1929-12-22	Racing Santander	W 5-0	1686	1656	73.9%	10.9%	15.2%	+2.2	12
1929-12-22	@ Barcelona	L 0-5	1656	1686	15.2%	10.9%	73.9%	-2.2	3
1929-12-22	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1672	1680	70.4%	11.5%	18.1%	-0.3	5
1929-12-22	@ Espanol	D 2-2	1680	1672	18.1%	11.5%	70.4%	+0.3	6
1929-12-22	Real Madrid	W 4-0	1679	1680	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	+2.0	7
1929-12-22	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-4	1680	1679	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	-2.0	1
1929-12-29	Athletic Bilbao	D 3-3	1669	1680	70.1%	11.5%	18.3%	-0.2	4
1929-12-29	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 3-3	1680	1669	18.3%	11.5%	70.1%	+0.2	7
1929-12-29	Real Sociedad	W 3-2	1672	1681	70.3%	11.5%	18.2%	+0.5	7
1929-12-29	@ Europa	L 2-3	1681	1672	18.2%	11.5%	70.3%	-0.5	7
1929-12-29	Atletico Madrid	W 3-2	1654	1672	69.5%	11.6%	18.9%	+0.5	6
1929-12-29	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1672	1654	18.9%	11.6%	69.5%	-0.5	7
1929-12-29	Espanol	L 2-4	1678	1672	71.8%	11.3%	16.9%	-3.1	1
1929-12-29	@ Real Madrid	W 4-2	1672	1678	16.9%	11.3%	71.8%	+3.1	8
1929-12-29	Barcelona	L 1-3	1674	1688	69.8%	11.6%	18.6%	-3.4	6
1929-12-29	@ Real Union	W 3-1	1688	1674	18.6%	11.6%	69.8%	+3.4	15
1930-01-05	Real Union	W 5-2	1680	1671	72.1%	11.3%	16.7%	+1.1	10
1930-01-05	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-5	1671	1680	16.7%	11.3%	72.1%	-1.1	6
1930-01-05	Atletico Madrid	W 4-2	1692	1671	73.0%	11.1%	15.9%	+0.8	18
1930-01-05	@ Barcelona	L 2-4	1671	1692	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	-0.8	7
1930-01-05	Racing Santander	W 6-0	1675	1654	73.0%	11.1%	15.9%	+2.7	4
1930-01-05	@ Real Madrid	L 0-6	1654	1675	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	-2.7	6
1930-01-05	Arenas de Getxo	D 4-4	1680	1669	72.2%	11.2%	16.5%	-0.2	8
1930-01-05	@ Real Sociedad	D 4-4	1669	1680	16.5%	11.2%	72.2%	+0.2	5
1930-01-09	Europa	L 1-2	1675	1672	71.4%	11.4%	17.2%	-2.0	8
1930-01-09	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1672	1675	17.2%	11.4%	71.4%	+2.0	10
1930-01-12	Espanol	W 2-0	1669	1673	70.8%	11.5%	17.7%	+1.1	8
1930-01-12	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-2	1673	1669	17.7%	11.5%	70.8%	-1.1	8
1930-01-12	Real Sociedad	D 1-1	1671	1680	70.3%	11.5%	18.2%	-0.4	8
1930-01-12	@ Atletico Madrid	D 1-1	1680	1671	18.2%	11.5%	70.3%	+0.4	9
1930-01-12	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1692	1682	72.2%	11.2%	16.6%	-0.4	19
1930-01-12	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1682	1692	16.6%	11.2%	72.2%	+0.4	11
1930-01-12	Real Madrid	L 1-2	1674	1678	70.9%	11.4%	17.7%	-2.0	10
1930-01-12	@ Europa	W 2-1	1678	1674	17.7%	11.4%	70.9%	+2.0	7
1930-01-12	Racing Santander	W 6-3	1670	1652	72.8%	11.1%	16.1%	+1.0	9
1930-01-12	@ Real Union	L 3-6	1652	1670	16.1%	11.1%	72.8%	-1.0	6
1930-01-19	Atletico Madrid	W 6-1	1682	1670	72.2%	11.2%	16.5%	+2.0	14
1930-01-19	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-6	1670	1682	16.5%	11.2%	72.2%	-2.0	8
1930-01-19	Barcelona	W 4-0	1672	1692	69.2%	11.7%	19.1%	+2.2	11
1930-01-19	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1692	1672	19.1%	11.7%	69.2%	-2.2	19
1930-01-19	Europa	W 6-0	1651	1672	69.2%	11.7%	19.2%	+3.3	9
1930-01-19	@ Racing Santander	L 0-6	1672	1651	19.2%	11.7%	69.2%	-3.3	10
1930-01-19	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-2	1680	1670	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	+1.1	10
1930-01-19	@ Real Madrid	L 2-5	1670	1680	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	-1.1	8
1930-01-19	Real Union	L 2-3	1680	1671	72.1%	11.2%	16.7%	-1.9	9
1930-01-19	@ Real Sociedad	W 3-2	1671	1680	16.7%	11.2%	72.1%	+1.9	12
1930-01-26	Racing Santander	W 4-0	1684	1654	73.9%	10.9%	15.2%	+1.8	17
1930-01-26	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1654	1684	15.2%	10.9%	73.9%	-1.8	9
1930-01-26	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1668	1669	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	-3.4	8
1930-01-26	@ Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1669	1668	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	+3.4	11
1930-01-26	Real Madrid	L 1-4	1690	1681	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	-4.9	19
1930-01-26	@ Barcelona	W 4-1	1681	1690	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	+4.9	13
1930-01-26	Real Union	L 0-1	1669	1672	70.8%	11.4%	17.7%	-2.1	10
1930-01-26	@ Europa	W 1-0	1672	1669	17.7%	11.4%	70.8%	+2.1	15
1930-01-26	Espanol	W 1-0	1679	1674	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+0.5	12
1930-01-26	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-1	1674	1679	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-0.6	11
1930-02-02	Real Union	W 7-2	1672	1675	71.0%	11.4%	17.6%	+1.8	14
1930-02-02	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-7	1675	1672	17.6%	11.4%	71.0%	-1.8	15
1930-02-02	Racing Santander	W 3-0	1673	1652	73.1%	11.1%	15.8%	+1.4	14
1930-02-02	@ Espanol	L 0-3	1652	1673	15.8%	11.1%	73.1%	-1.4	9
1930-02-02	Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1667	1665	71.4%	11.4%	17.3%	+1.1	13
1930-02-02	@ Europa	L 0-2	1665	1667	17.3%	11.4%	71.4%	-1.1	8
1930-02-02	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1686	1686	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	-1.9	13
1930-02-02	@ Real Madrid	W 3-2	1686	1686	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	+1.9	20
1930-02-02	Barcelona	L 1-2	1679	1685	70.6%	11.5%	17.9%	-2.0	12
1930-02-02	@ Real Sociedad	W 2-1	1685	1679	17.9%	11.5%	70.6%	+2.0	22
1930-02-09	Europa	W 3-0	1688	1668	73.0%	11.1%	15.9%	+1.4	23
1930-02-09	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-3	1668	1688	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	-1.4	13
1930-02-09	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1687	1674	72.3%	11.2%	16.4%	+0.9	25
1930-02-09	@ Barcelona	L 1-3	1674	1687	16.4%	11.2%	72.3%	-0.9	14
1930-02-09	Real Sociedad	W 2-0	1651	1677	68.7%	11.7%	19.6%	+1.2	12
1930-02-09	@ Racing Santander	L 0-2	1677	1651	19.6%	11.7%	68.7%	-1.2	12
1930-02-09	Real Madrid	D 2-2	1673	1684	70.2%	11.5%	18.3%	-0.3	16
1930-02-09	@ Real Union	D 2-2	1684	1673	18.3%	11.5%	70.2%	+0.3	14
1930-02-12	Espanol	W 2-0	1664	1675	70.2%	11.5%	18.3%	+1.1	11
1930-02-12	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1675	1664	18.3%	11.5%	70.2%	-1.1	14
1930-02-16	Racing Santander	W 5-1	1673	1652	73.1%	11.1%	15.8%	+1.5	17
1930-02-16	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-5	1652	1673	15.8%	11.1%	73.1%	-1.5	12
1930-02-16	Real Union	W 3-1	1674	1673	71.3%	11.4%	17.3%	+0.9	17
1930-02-16	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1673	1674	17.3%	11.4%	71.3%	-0.9	16
1930-02-16	Barcelona	L 0-3	1666	1688	69.1%	11.7%	19.2%	-5.6	13
1930-02-16	@ Europa	W 3-0	1688	1666	19.2%	11.7%	69.1%	+5.6	28
1930-02-16	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1684	1665	72.9%	11.1%	16.0%	+1.2	17
1930-02-16	@ Real Madrid	L 1-4	1665	1684	16.0%	11.1%	72.9%	-1.2	11
1930-02-16	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-7	1676	1689	70.0%	11.6%	18.5%	-8.9	12
1930-02-16	@ Real Sociedad	W 7-1	1689	1676	18.5%	11.6%	70.0%	+8.9	26
1930-02-23	Espanol	W 6-0	1698	1675	73.3%	11.1%	15.7%	+2.7	29
1930-02-23	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-6	1675	1698	15.7%	11.1%	73.3%	-2.7	17
1930-02-23	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1661	1675	69.8%	11.6%	18.6%	-1.9	13
1930-02-23	@ Europa	W 2-1	1675	1661	18.6%	11.6%	69.8%	+1.9	20
1930-02-23	Barcelona	W 2-1	1651	1693	67.0%	11.9%	21.1%	+0.6	15
1930-02-23	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1693	1651	21.1%	11.9%	67.0%	-0.6	28
1930-02-23	Real Sociedad	D 1-1	1685	1667	72.8%	11.1%	16.0%	-0.4	18
1930-02-23	@ Real Madrid	D 1-1	1667	1685	16.0%	11.1%	72.8%	+0.4	13
1930-02-23	Atletico Madrid	W 8-2	1672	1664	71.9%	11.3%	16.8%	+2.0	19
1930-02-23	@ Real Union	L 2-8	1664	1672	16.8%	11.3%	71.9%	-2.0	11
1930-03-02	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-2	1701	1677	73.3%	11.1%	15.6%	+1.0	32
1930-03-02	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-5	1677	1701	15.6%	11.1%	73.3%	-1.0	20
1930-03-02	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1662	1651	72.2%	11.2%	16.6%	+0.9	14
1930-03-02	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1651	1662	16.6%	11.2%	72.2%	-0.9	15
1930-03-02	Europa	W 2-0	1667	1659	72.0%	11.3%	16.8%	+1.0	16
1930-03-02	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-2	1659	1667	16.8%	11.3%	72.0%	-1.0	13
1930-03-05	Real Union	W 4-2	1693	1674	72.9%	11.1%	16.0%	+0.8	31
1930-03-05	@ Barcelona	L 2-4	1674	1693	16.0%	11.1%	72.9%	-0.8	19
1930-03-05	Real Madrid	W 8-1	1672	1685	70.0%	11.6%	18.5%	+3.0	20
1930-03-05	@ Espanol	L 1-8	1685	1672	18.5%	11.6%	70.0%	-3.0	18
1930-03-09	Real Sociedad	W 3-1	1676	1668	71.9%	11.3%	16.9%	+0.9	23
1930-03-09	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1668	1676	16.9%	11.3%	71.9%	-0.9	16
1930-03-09	Barcelona	W 3-2	1663	1693	68.2%	11.8%	20.0%	+0.6	17
1930-03-09	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1693	1663	20.0%	11.8%	68.2%	-0.6	31
1930-03-09	Espanol	L 1-2	1658	1675	69.6%	11.6%	18.8%	-1.9	13
1930-03-09	@ Europa	W 2-1	1675	1658	18.8%	11.6%	69.6%	+1.9	23
1930-03-09	Real Madrid	W 2-0	1650	1682	68.2%	11.8%	20.1%	+1.2	18
1930-03-09	@ Racing Santander	L 0-2	1682	1650	20.1%	11.8%	68.2%	-1.2	18
1930-03-09	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1673	1702	68.4%	11.8%	19.8%	-0.4	20
1930-03-09	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1702	1673	19.8%	11.8%	68.4%	+0.4	33
1930-03-16	Barcelona	W 4-3	1702	1693	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	+0.5	36
1930-03-16	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 3-4	1693	1702	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	-0.5	31
1930-03-16	Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1677	1677	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+0.6	26
1930-03-16	@ Espanol	L 0-1	1677	1677	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-0.6	23
1930-03-16	Real Union	W 4-2	1652	1672	69.2%	11.7%	19.1%	+0.9	21
1930-03-16	@ Racing Santander	L 2-4	1672	1652	19.1%	11.7%	69.2%	-0.9	20
1930-03-16	Europa	W 6-1	1680	1656	73.4%	11.0%	15.6%	+1.8	21
1930-03-16	@ Real Madrid	L 1-6	1656	1680	15.6%	11.0%	73.4%	-1.8	13
1930-03-16	Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1668	1663	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+1.0	19
1930-03-16	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-2	1663	1668	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.0	17
1930-03-22	Racing Santander	W 5-0	1654	1652	71.3%	11.4%	17.3%	+2.5	16
1930-03-22	@ Europa	L 0-5	1652	1654	17.3%	11.4%	71.3%	-2.5	21
1930-03-23	Real Madrid	W 5-1	1676	1682	70.6%	11.5%	17.9%	+1.7	26
1930-03-23	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-5	1682	1676	17.9%	11.5%	70.6%	-1.7	21
1930-03-23	Athletic Bilbao	L 3-4	1662	1702	67.2%	11.9%	20.9%	-1.7	17
1930-03-23	@ Atletico Madrid	W 4-3	1702	1662	20.9%	11.9%	67.2%	+1.7	39
1930-03-23	Espanol	W 5-4	1692	1677	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	+0.5	34
1930-03-23	@ Barcelona	L 4-5	1677	1692	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	-0.5	26
1930-03-23	Real Sociedad	W 3-2	1672	1669	71.5%	11.3%	17.2%	+0.5	23
1930-03-23	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1669	1672	17.2%	11.3%	71.5%	-0.5	19
1930-03-30	Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1678	1660	72.8%	11.1%	16.1%	+0.5	29
1930-03-30	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1660	1678	16.1%	11.1%	72.8%	-0.5	17
1930-03-30	Real Sociedad	W 3-1	1677	1668	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	+0.9	29
1930-03-30	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1668	1677	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	-0.9	19
1930-03-30	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1650	1704	65.8%	12.0%	22.2%	-1.8	21
1930-03-30	@ Racing Santander	W 3-2	1704	1650	22.2%	12.0%	65.8%	+1.8	42
1930-03-30	Barcelona	W 5-1	1681	1693	70.0%	11.6%	18.4%	+1.8	24
1930-03-30	@ Real Madrid	L 1-5	1693	1681	18.4%	11.6%	70.0%	-1.8	34
1930-03-30	Europa	L 3-4	1672	1656	72.6%	11.2%	16.2%	-1.9	23
1930-03-30	@ Real Union	W 4-3	1656	1672	16.2%	11.2%	72.6%	+1.9	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1930-03-30	16.23%	Europa	1656	4	@ Real Union	1672	3
2	1930-01-19	16.66%	Real Union	1671	3	@ Real Sociedad	1680	2
3	1930-01-26	16.71%	Real Madrid	1681	4	@ Barcelona	1690	1
4	1929-12-29	16.94%	Espanol	1672	4	@ Real Madrid	1678	2
5	1930-01-09	17.21%	Europa	1672	2	@ Espanol	1675	1
6	1929-12-22	17.32%	Europa	1670	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1671	2
7	1930-02-02	17.43%	Athletic Bilbao	1686	3	@ Real Madrid	1686	2
8	1930-01-26	17.48%	Arenas de Getxo	1669	3	@ Atletico Madrid	1668	1
9	1930-01-12	17.70%	Real Madrid	1678	2	@ Europa	1674	1
10	1930-01-26	17.71%	Real Union	1672	1	@ Europa	1669	0
11	1930-02-02	17.89%	Barcelona	1685	2	@ Real Sociedad	1679	1
12	1929-12-15	17.94%	Arenas de Getxo	1667	5	@ Racing Santander	1660	2
13	1929-12-08	18.40%	Barcelona	1682	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1670	1
14	1930-02-16	18.48%	Athletic Bilbao	1689	7	@ Real Sociedad	1676	1
15	1930-02-23	18.57%	Arenas de Getxo	1675	2	@ Europa	1661	1
16	1929-12-29	18.59%	Barcelona	1688	3	@ Real Union	1674	1
17	1930-03-09	18.82%	Espanol	1675	2	@ Europa	1658	1
18	1930-02-16	19.19%	Barcelona	1688	3	@ Europa	1666	0
19	1930-03-23	20.86%	Athletic Bilbao	1702	4	@ Atletico Madrid	1662	3
20	1930-03-30	22.18%	Athletic Bilbao	1704	3	@ Racing Santander	1650	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1930-02-16	8.94	Athletic Bilbao	7	1689	18.48%	@ Real Sociedad	1	1676	69.95%
2	1930-02-16	5.61	Barcelona	3	1688	19.19%	@ Europa	0	1666	69.14%
3	1930-01-26	4.91	Real Madrid	4	1681	16.71%	@ Barcelona	1	1690	72.03%
4	1929-12-15	4.17	Arenas de Getxo	5	1667	17.94%	@ Racing Santander	2	1660	70.58%
5	1930-01-26	3.43	Arenas de Getxo	3	1669	17.48%	@ Atletico Madrid	1	1668	71.11%
6	1929-12-08	3.38	Barcelona	3	1682	18.40%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1670	70.04%
7	1929-12-29	3.38	Barcelona	3	1688	18.59%	@ Real Union	1	1674	69.83%
8	1930-01-19	3.27	@ Racing Santander	6	1651	69.15%	Europa	0	1672	19.18%
9	1929-12-08	3.26	@ Real Sociedad	7	1675	72.25%	Racing Santander	0	1664	16.53%
10	1929-12-29	3.09	Espanol	4	1672	16.94%	@ Real Madrid	2	1678	71.76%
11	1930-03-05	3.00	@ Espanol	8	1672	69.97%	Real Madrid	1	1685	18.46%
12	1930-01-05	2.70	@ Real Madrid	6	1675	73.02%	Racing Santander	0	1654	15.88%
13	1930-02-23	2.67	@ Athletic Bilbao	6	1698	73.28%	Espanol	0	1675	15.66%
14	1930-03-22	2.48	@ Europa	5	1654	71.32%	Racing Santander	0	1652	17.30%
15	1930-01-19	2.22	@ Espanol	4	1672	69.24%	Barcelona	0	1692	19.10%
16	1929-12-22	2.18	@ Barcelona	5	1686	73.87%	Racing Santander	0	1656	15.19%
17	1930-01-26	2.09	Real Union	1	1672	17.71%	@ Europa	0	1669	70.84%
18	1929-12-22	2.04	@ Real Sociedad	4	1679	71.07%	Real Madrid	0	1680	17.52%
19	1930-01-09	1.99	Europa	2	1672	17.21%	@ Espanol	1	1675	71.43%
20	1930-01-12	1.98	Real Madrid	2	1678	17.70%	@ Europa	1	1674	70.86%
21	1930-01-19	1.97	@ Athletic Bilbao	6	1682	72.25%	Atletico Madrid	1	1670	16.52%
22	1930-02-02	1.97	Barcelona	2	1685	17.89%	@ Real Sociedad	1	1679	70.63%
23	1930-02-23	1.96	@ Real Union	8	1672	71.90%	Atletico Madrid	2	1664	16.81%
24	1930-02-23	1.95	Arenas de Getxo	2	1675	18.57%	@ Europa	1	1661	69.85%
25	1930-03-09	1.94	Espanol	2	1675	18.82%	@ Europa	1	1658	69.56%