1930-31 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

22 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1929-30

Relegated

Europa

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Racing Santander

4.49 points above expected

22 points · 17.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Europa

5.35 points below expected

13 points · 18.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	18	11	0	7	22	73	33	+40	19.9	+2.06
2	Racing Santander	18	10	2	6	22	49	37	+12	17.5	+4.49
3	Real Sociedad	18	10	2	6	22	42	39	+3	18.7	+3.27
4	Barcelona	18	7	7	4	21	40	43	-3	17.8	+3.25
5	Arenas de Getxo	18	8	2	8	18	35	38	-3	18.3	-0.28
6	Real Madrid	18	7	4	7	18	24	27	-3	17.9	+0.14
7	Real Union	18	6	4	8	16	41	45	-4	18.6	-2.59
8	Espanol	18	6	2	10	14	32	45	-13	18.1	-4.10
9	Alaves	18	5	4	9	14	25	39	-14	14.9	-0.89
10	Europa	18	6	1	11	13	23	38	-15	18.4	-5.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1791	22	19.94	+2.06	82.0%	12	15	18	20	22	25	31
Real Sociedad	1757	22	18.73	+3.27	89.0%	8	14	16	19	21	24	28
Barcelona	1755	21	17.75	+3.25	89.0%	13	13	15	17	20	23	27
Arenas de Getxo	1753	18	18.28	-0.28	53.0%	11	12	16	18	20	24	26
Real Madrid	1751	18	17.86	+0.14	54.0%	10	13	15	18	20	22	24
Real Union	1745	16	18.59	-2.59	24.0%	7	13	17	18	20	25	29
Racing Santander	1744	22	17.51	+4.49	91.0%	11	13	15	17	19	24	29
Espanol	1741	14	18.10	-4.10	13.0%	12	13	16	18	20	23	26
Europa	1730	13	18.35	-5.35	2.0%	12	14	16	18	20	22	27
Alaves	1656	14	14.89	-0.89	46.0%	8	9	12	15	17	22	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	ADG	AB	BAR	ESP	EUR	RS	RM	RS	RU
Alaves	—	1-1-0 2.43	0-0-2 2.30	0-2-0 2.39	1-0-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.51	1-0-1 2.42	0-1-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.45
Arenas de Getxo	0-1-1 3.34	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.95	2-0-0 2.88	0-0-2 2.86	0-1-1 2.92
Athletic Bilbao	2-0-0 3.47	1-0-1 3.00	—	1-0-1 2.96	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.09
Barcelona	0-2-0 3.38	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.81	—	1-1-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.97	1-1-0 2.96	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.87	1-1-0 2.93
Espanol	1-0-1 3.33	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.72	0-1-1 2.86	—	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.95	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.91
Europa	1-0-1 3.25	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.81	—	0-0-2 2.89	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.84
Racing Santander	2-0-0 3.26	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.81	2-0-0 2.87	—	1-1-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.85
Real Madrid	1-0-1 3.35	0-0-2 2.88	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.87	2-0-0 2.94	0-1-1 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.82	1-1-0 2.88
Real Sociedad	1-1-0 3.36	2-0-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.94	—	1-1-0 2.93
Real Union	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.68	0-1-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.84	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.89%	3.89%	1.67%	2.22%	1.67%	15.56%
1	3.89%	7.78%	6.11%	3.33%	6.67%	3.89%	31.67%
2	3.89%	6.11%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	2.22%	19.44%
3	1.67%	3.33%	1.67%	1.11%	1.11%	1.11%	10.00%
4	2.22%	6.67%	2.22%	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	13.89%
5+	1.67%	3.89%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	9.44%
Total	15.56%	31.67%	19.44%	10.00%	13.89%	9.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.13
Mean allowed	2.13
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	1.85
Mean total goals/game	4.27
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.073
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	—	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.89
Mean total goals/game	3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.195
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	1.60
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.395
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	11.11%	44.44%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.06
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	2.92
StdDev allowed	1.54
Mean total goals/game	5.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.429
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.39
StdDev scored	2.07
StdDev allowed	2.81
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.026
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	2.07
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.325
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	—	100%

Europa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.28
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	0.96
StdDev allowed	1.37
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.249
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	—	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.72
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.84
StdDev allowed	2.07
Mean total goals/game	4.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.073
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Real Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.69
Mean total goals/game	2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.338
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	44.44%	27.78%	5.56%	—	16.67%	100%

Real Sociedad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.92
Mean total goals/game	4.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.021
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	33.33%	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.49
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	4.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.107
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Racing Santander	22	17.5	+4.49
2	Real Sociedad	22	18.7	+3.27
3	Barcelona	21	17.8	+3.25
4	Athletic Bilbao	22	19.9	+2.06
5	Real Madrid	18	17.9	+0.14

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Europa	13	18.4	-5.35
2	Espanol	14	18.1	-4.10
3	Real Union	16	18.6	-2.59
4	Alaves	14	14.9	-0.89
5	Arenas de Getxo	18	18.3	-0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Sociedad	6	Dec 21 – Jan 25	1 in 520
2	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 11 – Feb 8	1 in 76
3	Barcelona	3	Feb 22 – Mar 8	1 in 11
4	Real Union	2	Mar 29 – Apr 5	1 in 11
5	Racing Santander	3	Jan 11 – Jan 25	1 in 9

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Europa	5	Jan 11 – Feb 8	1 in 101
2	Real Madrid	3	Jan 11 – Jan 25	1 in 11
3	Athletic Bilbao	2	Mar 15 – Mar 22	1 in 11
4	Espanol	3	Mar 22 – Apr 5	1 in 10
5	Arenas de Getxo	2	Dec 7 – Dec 14	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Sociedad	6	Dec 21 – Jan 25	1 in 68
2	Barcelona	7	Feb 22 – Apr 5	1 in 63
3	Arenas de Getxo	6	Jan 25 – Mar 1	1 in 63
4	Real Madrid	4	Jan 27 – Feb 15	1 in 18
5	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 11 – Feb 8	1 in 18

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Union	7	Jan 11 – Feb 15	1 in 248
2	Barcelona	5	Jan 18 – Feb 15	1 in 31
3	Real Madrid	6	Jan 11 – Feb 8	1 in 24
4	Europa	5	Jan 11 – Feb 8	1 in 22
5	Real Sociedad	4	Feb 22 – Mar 14	1 in 21

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Athletic Bilbao	28.00%	19.00%	10.00%	9.00%	11.00%	8.00%	6.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Racing Santander	9.00%	7.00%	7.00%	8.00%	10.00%	14.00%	17.00%	10.00%	12.00%	6.00%
Real Sociedad	14.00%	13.00%	13.00%	10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	9.00%	5.00%	8.00%	5.00%
Barcelona	7.00%	7.00%	9.00%	14.00%	10.00%	5.00%	14.00%	12.00%	16.00%	6.00%
Arenas de Getxo	7.00%	13.00%	14.00%	11.00%	7.00%	9.00%	12.00%	10.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Real Madrid	7.00%	11.00%	14.00%	10.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	6.00%	10.00%	12.00%
Real Union	11.00%	12.00%	9.00%	15.00%	12.00%	13.00%	6.00%	8.00%	8.00%	6.00%
Espanol	7.00%	6.00%	15.00%	9.00%	12.00%	11.00%	7.00%	19.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Alaves	4.00%	2.00%	—	4.00%	1.00%	7.00%	13.00%	13.00%	11.00%	45.00%
Europa	6.00%	10.00%	9.00%	10.00%	15.00%	12.00%	6.00%	14.00%	11.00%	7.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao	98.0%	2.0%
Espanol	96.0%	4.0%
Real Sociedad	95.0%	5.0%
Barcelona	94.0%	6.0%
Racing Santander	94.0%	6.0%
Real Union	94.0%	6.0%
Arenas de Getxo	93.0%	7.0%
Europa	93.0%	7.0%
Real Madrid	88.0%	12.0%
Alaves	55.0%	45.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1930-12-07	Real Union	L 1-2	1754	1749	71.9%	11.8%	16.3%	-2.0	0
1930-12-07	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1749	1754	16.3%	11.8%	71.9%	+2.0	3
1930-12-07	Athletic Bilbao	W 6-3	1757	1764	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	+1.0	3
1930-12-07	@ Barcelona	L 3-6	1764	1757	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	-1.0	0
1930-12-07	Europa	W 2-1	1734	1743	70.6%	12.0%	17.4%	+0.5	3
1930-12-07	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1743	1734	17.4%	12.0%	70.6%	-0.5	0
1930-12-07	Espanol	W 2-0	1756	1753	71.7%	11.8%	16.4%	+1.0	3
1930-12-07	@ Real Madrid	L 0-2	1753	1756	16.4%	11.8%	71.7%	-1.0	0
1930-12-07	Alaves	D 2-2	1750	1663	78.7%	10.1%	11.2%	-0.4	1
1930-12-07	@ Real Sociedad	D 2-2	1663	1750	11.2%	10.1%	78.7%	+0.4	1
1930-12-14	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1663	1752	62.3%	13.0%	24.6%	+0.7	4
1930-12-14	@ Alaves	L 2-3	1752	1663	24.6%	13.0%	62.3%	-0.7	0
1930-12-14	Real Sociedad	W 6-1	1763	1750	72.6%	11.7%	15.7%	+1.9	3
1930-12-14	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-6	1750	1763	15.7%	11.7%	72.6%	-1.9	1
1930-12-14	Racing Santander	W 4-1	1752	1735	73.0%	11.6%	15.4%	+1.2	3
1930-12-14	@ Espanol	L 1-4	1735	1752	15.4%	11.6%	73.0%	-1.2	3
1930-12-14	Barcelona	D 2-2	1742	1758	69.9%	12.1%	17.9%	-0.3	1
1930-12-14	@ Europa	D 2-2	1758	1742	17.9%	12.1%	69.9%	+0.3	4
1930-12-21	Espanol	W 4-1	1664	1753	62.3%	13.0%	24.7%	+1.8	7
1930-12-21	@ Alaves	L 1-4	1753	1664	24.7%	13.0%	62.3%	-1.8	3
1930-12-21	Real Madrid	W 4-1	1751	1757	70.9%	12.0%	17.2%	+1.3	3
1930-12-21	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-4	1757	1751	17.2%	12.0%	70.9%	-1.3	3
1930-12-21	Real Union	W 2-1	1742	1751	70.6%	12.0%	17.3%	+0.5	4
1930-12-21	@ Europa	L 1-2	1751	1742	17.3%	12.0%	70.6%	-0.5	3
1930-12-21	Athletic Bilbao	W 4-1	1733	1765	68.4%	12.4%	19.2%	+1.4	6
1930-12-21	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1765	1733	19.2%	12.4%	68.4%	-1.5	3
1930-12-21	Barcelona	W 4-1	1748	1758	70.5%	12.1%	17.5%	+1.3	4
1930-12-21	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-4	1758	1748	17.5%	12.1%	70.5%	-1.3	4
1930-12-25	Europa	W 3-1	1756	1742	72.6%	11.7%	15.7%	+0.8	6
1930-12-25	@ Real Madrid	L 1-3	1742	1756	15.7%	11.7%	72.6%	-0.8	4
1930-12-28	Alaves	W 7-1	1764	1666	79.5%	9.9%	10.6%	+1.5	6
1930-12-28	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-7	1666	1764	10.6%	9.9%	79.5%	-1.5	7
1930-12-28	Racing Santander	D 1-1	1757	1735	73.4%	11.5%	15.1%	-0.4	5
1930-12-28	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1735	1757	15.1%	11.5%	73.4%	+0.4	7
1930-12-28	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-0	1751	1752	71.3%	11.9%	16.8%	+2.4	6
1930-12-28	@ Espanol	L 0-5	1752	1751	16.8%	11.9%	71.3%	-2.4	3
1930-12-28	Real Sociedad	L 2-4	1750	1749	71.5%	11.9%	16.6%	-3.1	3
1930-12-28	@ Real Union	W 4-2	1749	1750	16.6%	11.9%	71.5%	+3.1	7
1931-01-04	Barcelona	W 5-0	1750	1757	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	+2.5	6
1931-01-04	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-5	1757	1750	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	-2.5	5
1931-01-04	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1742	1765	69.2%	12.3%	18.5%	+0.6	7
1931-01-04	@ Europa	L 1-2	1765	1742	18.5%	12.3%	69.2%	-0.6	6
1931-01-04	Real Sociedad	L 2-5	1735	1752	69.8%	12.2%	18.0%	-4.1	7
1931-01-04	@ Racing Santander	W 5-2	1752	1735	18.0%	12.2%	69.8%	+4.1	10
1931-01-04	Alaves	W 1-0	1756	1664	79.1%	10.0%	10.9%	+0.3	9
1931-01-04	@ Real Madrid	L 0-1	1664	1756	10.9%	10.0%	79.1%	-0.3	7
1931-01-04	Espanol	W 6-1	1747	1753	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	+2.0	6
1931-01-04	@ Real Union	L 1-6	1753	1747	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	-2.0	6
1931-01-11	Real Union	W 3-1	1664	1749	62.7%	13.0%	24.3%	+1.3	10
1931-01-11	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1749	1664	24.3%	13.0%	62.7%	-1.3	6
1931-01-11	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-2	1764	1752	72.5%	11.7%	15.8%	+1.0	9
1931-01-11	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-5	1752	1764	15.8%	11.7%	72.5%	-1.0	6
1931-01-11	Espanol	W 6-2	1754	1751	71.7%	11.8%	16.5%	+1.4	8
1931-01-11	@ Barcelona	L 2-6	1751	1754	16.5%	11.8%	71.7%	-1.4	6
1931-01-11	Real Madrid	W 3-0	1731	1757	69.0%	12.3%	18.7%	+1.7	10
1931-01-11	@ Racing Santander	L 0-3	1757	1731	18.7%	12.3%	69.0%	-1.7	9
1931-01-11	Europa	W 3-1	1757	1742	72.7%	11.6%	15.6%	+0.8	13
1931-01-11	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-3	1742	1757	15.6%	11.6%	72.7%	-0.8	7
1931-01-18	Racing Santander	L 2-5	1665	1733	64.6%	12.8%	22.5%	-3.8	10
1931-01-18	@ Alaves	W 5-2	1733	1665	22.5%	12.8%	64.6%	+3.8	13
1931-01-18	Real Sociedad	L 1-3	1751	1757	70.9%	12.0%	17.2%	-3.4	6
1931-01-18	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1757	1751	17.2%	12.0%	70.9%	+3.4	16
1931-01-18	Europa	W 4-0	1750	1741	72.2%	11.7%	16.1%	+1.9	9
1931-01-18	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1741	1750	16.1%	11.7%	72.2%	-1.9	7
1931-01-18	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-6	1755	1765	70.5%	12.0%	17.5%	-10.9	9
1931-01-18	@ Real Madrid	W 6-0	1765	1755	17.5%	12.0%	70.5%	+10.9	12
1931-01-18	Barcelona	D 1-1	1748	1756	70.7%	12.0%	17.3%	-0.4	7
1931-01-18	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1756	1748	17.3%	12.0%	70.7%	+0.4	9
1931-01-25	Espanol	W 5-1	1776	1752	73.6%	11.4%	14.9%	+1.5	15
1931-01-25	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1752	1776	14.9%	11.4%	73.6%	-1.4	9
1931-01-25	Alaves	D 1-1	1756	1661	79.3%	10.0%	10.8%	-0.5	10
1931-01-25	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1661	1756	10.8%	10.0%	79.3%	+0.5	11
1931-01-25	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-4	1740	1748	70.7%	12.0%	17.3%	-4.8	7
1931-01-25	@ Europa	W 4-1	1748	1740	17.3%	12.0%	70.7%	+4.8	9
1931-01-25	Real Union	W 4-1	1737	1747	70.4%	12.1%	17.5%	+1.3	16
1931-01-25	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1747	1737	17.5%	12.1%	70.4%	-1.3	7
1931-01-25	Real Madrid	W 2-1	1761	1744	72.9%	11.6%	15.5%	+0.5	19
1931-01-25	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-2	1744	1761	15.5%	11.6%	72.9%	-0.5	9
1931-01-27	Real Madrid	D 1-1	1746	1744	71.6%	11.8%	16.5%	-0.4	8
1931-01-27	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1744	1746	16.5%	11.8%	71.6%	+0.4	10
1931-02-01	Europa	W 2-0	1662	1735	64.1%	12.9%	23.1%	+1.4	14
1931-02-01	@ Alaves	L 0-2	1735	1662	23.1%	12.9%	64.1%	-1.4	7
1931-02-01	Racing Santander	W 4-2	1753	1738	72.8%	11.6%	15.6%	+0.7	12
1931-02-01	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-4	1738	1753	15.6%	11.6%	72.8%	-0.7	16
1931-02-01	Real Sociedad	W 1-0	1750	1761	70.4%	12.1%	17.5%	+0.6	12
1931-02-01	@ Espanol	L 0-1	1761	1750	17.5%	12.1%	70.4%	-0.6	19
1931-02-01	Barcelona	D 0-0	1744	1756	70.4%	12.1%	17.5%	-0.4	11
1931-02-01	@ Real Madrid	D 0-0	1756	1744	17.5%	12.1%	70.4%	+0.4	11
1931-02-01	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1746	1778	68.3%	12.4%	19.3%	-1.8	8
1931-02-01	@ Real Union	W 3-2	1778	1746	19.3%	12.4%	68.3%	+1.8	18
1931-02-08	Real Sociedad	L 1-2	1663	1761	61.3%	13.1%	25.6%	-1.7	14
1931-02-08	@ Alaves	W 2-1	1761	1663	25.6%	13.1%	61.3%	+1.7	22
1931-02-08	Barcelona	W 12-1	1780	1756	73.6%	11.5%	15.0%	+3.7	21
1931-02-08	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-12	1756	1780	15.0%	11.5%	73.6%	-3.7	11
1931-02-08	Real Madrid	D 1-1	1751	1744	72.1%	11.8%	16.2%	-0.4	13
1931-02-08	@ Espanol	D 1-1	1744	1751	16.2%	11.8%	72.1%	+0.4	12
1931-02-08	Racing Santander	L 1-2	1733	1737	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	-2.0	7
1931-02-08	@ Europa	W 2-1	1737	1733	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	+2.0	19
1931-02-08	Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1744	1753	70.5%	12.0%	17.4%	-0.3	9
1931-02-08	@ Real Union	D 2-2	1753	1744	17.4%	12.0%	70.5%	+0.3	13
1931-02-15	Alaves	D 1-1	1754	1661	79.1%	10.0%	10.9%	-0.5	14
1931-02-15	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1661	1754	10.9%	10.0%	79.1%	+0.5	15
1931-02-15	Europa	L 0-2	1752	1731	73.3%	11.5%	15.2%	-4.1	11
1931-02-15	@ Barcelona	W 2-0	1731	1752	15.2%	11.5%	73.3%	+4.1	10
1931-02-15	Espanol	W 4-0	1739	1751	70.4%	12.1%	17.6%	+2.0	22
1931-02-15	@ Racing Santander	L 0-4	1751	1739	17.6%	12.1%	70.4%	-2.0	13
1931-02-15	Real Union	W 3-0	1744	1744	71.5%	11.9%	16.6%	+1.5	15
1931-02-15	@ Real Madrid	L 0-3	1744	1744	16.6%	11.9%	71.5%	-1.5	9
1931-02-15	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1762	1783	69.5%	12.2%	18.3%	+0.6	25
1931-02-15	@ Real Sociedad	L 0-1	1783	1762	18.3%	12.2%	69.5%	-0.6	21
1931-02-22	Racing Santander	W 7-1	1783	1741	75.1%	11.1%	13.8%	+1.9	24
1931-02-22	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-7	1741	1783	13.8%	11.1%	75.1%	-1.9	22
1931-02-22	Real Sociedad	W 5-1	1748	1763	70.0%	12.1%	17.8%	+1.7	14
1931-02-22	@ Barcelona	L 1-5	1763	1748	17.8%	12.1%	70.0%	-1.7	25
1931-02-22	Alaves	W 2-0	1749	1662	78.6%	10.1%	11.2%	+0.7	16
1931-02-22	@ Espanol	L 0-2	1662	1749	11.2%	10.1%	78.6%	-0.7	15
1931-02-22	Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1746	1753	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	-2.0	15
1931-02-22	@ Real Madrid	W 2-1	1753	1746	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	+2.0	17
1931-02-22	Europa	W 4-3	1742	1735	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+0.5	12
1931-02-22	@ Real Union	L 3-4	1735	1742	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-0.5	10
1931-03-01	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1661	1785	58.2%	13.2%	28.5%	-4.0	15
1931-03-01	@ Alaves	W 4-1	1785	1661	28.5%	13.2%	58.2%	+4.0	27
1931-03-01	Espanol	W 1-0	1755	1749	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+0.5	20
1931-03-01	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-1	1749	1755	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-0.5	16
1931-03-01	Real Madrid	L 0-3	1735	1744	70.6%	12.0%	17.4%	-5.7	10
1931-03-01	@ Europa	W 3-0	1744	1735	17.4%	12.0%	70.6%	+5.7	18
1931-03-01	Barcelona	L 0-1	1739	1750	70.4%	12.1%	17.5%	-2.1	22
1931-03-01	@ Racing Santander	W 1-0	1750	1739	17.5%	12.1%	70.4%	+2.1	17
1931-03-01	Real Union	D 3-3	1761	1742	73.1%	11.6%	15.3%	-0.3	26
1931-03-01	@ Real Sociedad	D 3-3	1742	1761	15.3%	11.6%	73.1%	+0.3	13
1931-03-08	Real Madrid	W 2-0	1657	1749	61.9%	13.0%	25.0%	+1.5	18
1931-03-08	@ Alaves	L 0-2	1749	1657	25.0%	13.0%	61.9%	-1.5	18
1931-03-08	Europa	W 4-1	1789	1729	76.5%	10.7%	12.7%	+0.9	30
1931-03-08	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1729	1789	12.7%	10.7%	76.5%	-1.0	10
1931-03-08	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1752	1756	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	+1.0	20
1931-03-08	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1756	1752	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	-1.0	20
1931-03-08	Real Union	W 4-2	1749	1743	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+0.8	19
1931-03-08	@ Espanol	L 2-4	1743	1749	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-0.8	13
1931-03-08	Racing Santander	L 4-7	1761	1737	73.6%	11.5%	15.0%	-3.8	26
1931-03-08	@ Real Sociedad	W 7-4	1737	1761	15.0%	11.5%	73.6%	+3.8	25
1931-03-14	Real Sociedad	W 2-1	1728	1757	68.7%	12.3%	19.0%	+0.6	13
1931-03-14	@ Europa	L 1-2	1757	1728	19.0%	12.3%	68.7%	-0.6	26
1931-03-15	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1755	1790	68.0%	12.4%	19.5%	+0.6	23
1931-03-15	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1790	1755	19.5%	12.4%	68.0%	-0.6	30
1931-03-15	Racing Santander	D 0-0	1748	1741	72.1%	11.8%	16.2%	-0.5	19
1931-03-15	@ Real Madrid	D 0-0	1741	1748	16.2%	11.8%	72.1%	+0.5	26
1931-03-15	Alaves	W 4-1	1742	1659	78.4%	10.2%	11.4%	+0.8	16
1931-03-15	@ Real Union	L 1-4	1659	1742	11.4%	10.2%	78.4%	-0.9	18
1931-03-17	Barcelona	D 4-4	1749	1753	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	-0.2	20
1931-03-17	@ Espanol	D 4-4	1753	1749	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	+0.2	21
1931-03-22	Real Madrid	L 2-4	1789	1747	75.1%	11.1%	13.8%	-3.2	30
1931-03-22	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 4-2	1747	1789	13.8%	11.1%	75.1%	+3.2	22
1931-03-22	Real Union	W 5-3	1753	1743	72.4%	11.7%	15.9%	+0.7	24
1931-03-22	@ Barcelona	L 3-5	1743	1753	15.9%	11.7%	72.4%	-0.7	16
1931-03-22	Espanol	W 3-1	1729	1749	69.5%	12.2%	18.3%	+1.0	16
1931-03-22	@ Europa	L 1-3	1749	1729	18.3%	12.2%	69.5%	-1.0	20
1931-03-22	Alaves	W 4-0	1742	1658	78.4%	10.2%	11.4%	+1.3	29
1931-03-22	@ Racing Santander	L 0-4	1658	1742	11.4%	10.2%	78.4%	-1.3	18
1931-03-22	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1757	1755	71.6%	11.9%	16.6%	+1.2	29
1931-03-22	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-4	1755	1757	16.6%	11.9%	71.6%	-1.2	23
1931-03-29	Barcelona	D 1-1	1657	1754	61.3%	13.1%	25.6%	-0.3	19
1931-03-29	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1754	1657	25.6%	13.1%	61.3%	+0.2	25
1931-03-29	Europa	W 1-0	1754	1730	73.6%	11.5%	15.0%	+0.5	26
1931-03-29	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-1	1730	1754	15.0%	11.5%	73.6%	-0.5	16
1931-03-29	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1748	1786	67.8%	12.5%	19.7%	-7.2	20
1931-03-29	@ Espanol	W 4-0	1786	1748	19.7%	12.5%	67.8%	+7.2	33
1931-03-29	Real Sociedad	W 2-0	1751	1758	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	+1.1	25
1931-03-29	@ Real Madrid	L 0-2	1758	1751	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	-1.1	29
1931-03-29	Racing Santander	W 4-3	1742	1743	71.4%	11.9%	16.7%	+0.5	19
1931-03-29	@ Real Union	L 3-4	1743	1742	16.7%	11.9%	71.4%	-0.5	29
1931-04-05	Real Union	L 1-2	1793	1743	75.8%	10.9%	13.3%	-2.1	33
1931-04-05	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1743	1793	13.3%	10.9%	75.8%	+2.1	22
1931-04-05	Real Madrid	W 3-1	1754	1752	71.7%	11.8%	16.5%	+0.9	28
1931-04-05	@ Barcelona	L 1-3	1752	1754	16.5%	11.8%	71.7%	-0.9	25
1931-04-05	Alaves	W 1-0	1729	1656	77.6%	10.4%	11.9%	+0.4	19
1931-04-05	@ Europa	L 0-1	1656	1729	11.9%	10.4%	77.6%	-0.4	19
1931-04-05	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1742	1754	70.3%	12.1%	17.6%	+1.3	32
1931-04-05	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1754	1742	17.6%	12.1%	70.3%	-1.3	26
1931-04-05	Espanol	W 2-1	1757	1741	72.9%	11.6%	15.5%	+0.5	32
1931-04-05	@ Real Sociedad	L 1-2	1741	1757	15.5%	11.6%	72.9%	-0.5	20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1931-04-05	13.26%	Real Union	1743	2	@ Athletic Bilbao	1793	1
2	1931-03-22	13.81%	Real Madrid	1747	4	@ Athletic Bilbao	1789	2
3	1931-03-08	14.98%	Racing Santander	1737	7	@ Real Sociedad	1761	4
4	1931-02-15	15.18%	Europa	1731	2	@ Barcelona	1752	0
5	1930-12-07	16.32%	Real Union	1749	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1754	1
6	1930-12-28	16.63%	Real Sociedad	1749	4	@ Real Union	1750	2
7	1931-02-08	16.98%	Racing Santander	1737	2	@ Europa	1733	1
8	1931-01-18	17.16%	Real Sociedad	1757	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1751	1
9	1931-02-22	17.25%	Arenas de Getxo	1753	2	@ Real Madrid	1746	1
10	1931-01-25	17.32%	Arenas de Getxo	1748	4	@ Europa	1740	1
11	1931-03-01	17.36%	Real Madrid	1744	3	@ Europa	1735	0
12	1931-01-18	17.48%	Athletic Bilbao	1765	6	@ Real Madrid	1755	0
13	1931-03-01	17.50%	Barcelona	1750	1	@ Racing Santander	1739	0
14	1931-01-04	18.02%	Real Sociedad	1752	5	@ Racing Santander	1735	2
15	1931-02-01	19.27%	Athletic Bilbao	1778	3	@ Real Union	1746	2
16	1931-03-29	19.74%	Athletic Bilbao	1786	4	@ Espanol	1748	0
17	1931-01-18	22.54%	Racing Santander	1733	5	@ Alaves	1665	2
18	1931-02-08	25.61%	Real Sociedad	1761	2	@ Alaves	1663	1
19	1931-03-01	28.54%	Athletic Bilbao	1785	4	@ Alaves	1661	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1931-01-18	10.87	Athletic Bilbao	6	1765	17.48%	@ Real Madrid	0	1755	70.47%
2	1931-03-29	7.16	Athletic Bilbao	4	1786	19.74%	@ Espanol	0	1748	67.80%
3	1931-03-01	5.70	Real Madrid	3	1744	17.36%	@ Europa	0	1735	70.61%
4	1931-01-25	4.81	Arenas de Getxo	4	1748	17.32%	@ Europa	1	1740	70.66%
5	1931-01-04	4.12	Real Sociedad	5	1752	18.02%	@ Racing Santander	2	1735	69.82%
6	1931-02-15	4.06	Europa	2	1731	15.18%	@ Barcelona	0	1752	73.31%
7	1931-03-01	4.00	Athletic Bilbao	4	1785	28.54%	@ Alaves	1	1661	58.24%
8	1931-01-18	3.83	Racing Santander	5	1733	22.54%	@ Alaves	2	1665	64.64%
9	1931-03-08	3.81	Racing Santander	7	1737	14.98%	@ Real Sociedad	4	1761	73.56%
10	1931-02-08	3.74	@ Athletic Bilbao	12	1780	73.55%	Barcelona	1	1756	14.99%
11	1931-01-18	3.41	Real Sociedad	3	1757	17.16%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1751	70.85%
12	1931-03-22	3.21	Real Madrid	4	1747	13.81%	@ Athletic Bilbao	2	1789	75.09%
13	1930-12-28	3.07	Real Sociedad	4	1749	16.63%	@ Real Union	2	1750	71.50%
14	1931-01-04	2.48	@ Arenas de Getxo	5	1750	70.77%	Barcelona	0	1757	17.22%
15	1930-12-28	2.41	@ Espanol	5	1751	71.33%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1752	16.77%
16	1931-04-05	2.09	Real Union	2	1743	13.26%	@ Athletic Bilbao	1	1793	75.81%
17	1931-03-01	2.08	Barcelona	1	1750	17.50%	@ Racing Santander	0	1739	70.44%
18	1931-01-04	2.05	@ Real Union	6	1747	70.83%	Espanol	1	1753	17.18%
19	1931-02-15	2.05	@ Racing Santander	4	1739	70.37%	Espanol	0	1751	17.56%
20	1930-12-07	1.99	Real Union	2	1749	16.32%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1754	71.88%
21	1931-02-08	1.97	Racing Santander	2	1737	16.98%	@ Europa	1	1733	71.07%
22	1931-02-22	1.97	Arenas de Getxo	2	1753	17.25%	@ Real Madrid	1	1746	70.75%
23	1931-02-22	1.94	@ Athletic Bilbao	7	1783	75.08%	Racing Santander	1	1741	13.81%
24	1930-12-14	1.87	@ Athletic Bilbao	6	1763	72.64%	Real Sociedad	1	1750	15.71%
25	1931-01-18	1.87	@ Espanol	4	1750	72.22%	Europa	0	1741	16.05%