1931-32 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Real Madrid

1st Title

Relegated

Real Union

11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Madrid CF

9.46 points above expected

28 points · 18.54 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Real Union

6.68 points below expected

11 points · 17.68 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	18	10	8	0	28	37	15	+22	18.5	+9.46
2	Athletic Bilbao	18	11	3	4	25	47	23	+24	19.4	+5.60
3	Barcelona	18	10	4	4	24	40	26	+14	18.3	+5.70
4	Racing Santander	18	7	6	5	20	36	35	+1	18.8	+1.23
5	Arenas de Getxo	18	7	3	8	17	35	42	-7	18.8	-1.81
6	Espanol	18	7	1	10	15	34	39	-5	18.2	-3.19
7	Valencia	18	6	3	9	15	38	47	-9	15.4	-0.38
8	Donostia FC	18	7	0	11	14	38	35	+3	18.5	-4.47
9	Real Union	18	4	3	11	11	24	45	-21	17.7	-6.68
10	Alaves	18	5	1	12	11	22	44	-22	16.5	-5.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1741	25	19.40	+5.60	100.0%	11	14	17	20	22	24	25
Barcelona	1716	24	18.30	+5.70	100.0%	12	14	16	18	20	23	24
Madrid CF	1715	28	18.54	+9.46	100.0%	13	14	16	18	21	24	25
Racing Santander	1702	20	18.77	+1.23	73.0%	13	14	17	19	21	24	28
Arenas de Getxo	1695	17	18.81	-1.81	32.0%	9	13	17	19	21	24	26
Donostia FC	1692	14	18.47	-4.47	8.0%	10	14	17	18	20	23	27
Espanol	1687	15	18.19	-3.19	18.0%	10	13	16	18	20	23	24
Real Union	1677	11	17.68	-6.68	0.0%	12	13	15	17	20	22	25
Alaves	1639	11	16.46	-5.46	6.0%	8	10	14	17	19	21	22
Valencia	1595	15	15.38	-0.38	50.0%	8	11	13	15	17	20	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	ADG	AB	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RU	VAL
Alaves	—	1-0-1 2.64	0-0-2 2.52	0-0-2 2.60	0-0-2 2.67	1-0-1 2.68	0-0-2 2.62	0-1-1 2.67	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 3.10
Arenas de Getxo	1-0-1 3.12	—	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.92	0-1-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 3.35
Athletic Bilbao	2-0-0 3.24	1-0-1 3.06	—	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.10	0-2-0 3.00	1-0-1 3.04	2-0-0 3.07	1-1-0 3.53
Barcelona	2-0-0 3.17	1-1-0 2.91	0-0-2 2.78	—	2-0-0 2.96	1-1-0 2.95	0-1-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.93	2-0-0 2.95	1-1-0 3.42
Donostia FC	2-0-0 3.09	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.80	—	1-0-1 2.90	0-0-2 2.86	0-0-2 2.88	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 3.35
Espanol	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.86	—	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.33
Madrid CF	2-0-0 3.14	1-1-0 2.92	0-2-0 2.77	1-1-0 2.86	2-0-0 2.90	2-0-0 2.96	—	0-2-0 2.92	1-1-0 3.00	1-1-0 3.38
Racing Santander	1-1-0 3.09	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.91	0-2-0 2.85	—	0-2-0 2.95	1-0-1 3.36
Real Union	0-0-2 3.05	1-0-1 2.82	0-0-2 2.70	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.76	0-2-0 2.81	—	1-0-1 3.32
Valencia	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.41	0-1-1 2.25	0-1-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.45	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	3.89%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	18.89%
1	3.89%	5.56%	5.56%	4.44%	3.89%	3.89%	27.22%
2	3.33%	5.56%	6.67%	5.56%	1.67%	1.11%	23.89%
3	2.22%	4.44%	5.56%	1.11%	—	—	13.33%
4	2.22%	3.89%	1.67%	—	—	0.56%	8.33%
5+	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	—	0.56%	—	8.33%
Total	18.89%	27.22%	23.89%	13.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.95
Mean allowed	1.95
StdDev scored	1.62
StdDev allowed	1.62
Mean total goals/game	3.90
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.116
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	1.85
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.392
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.43
StdDev allowed	1.68
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.578
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	1.94
StdDev allowed	0.96
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.093
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.275
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	—	—	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	44.44%	—	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Donostia FC — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	2.45
StdDev allowed	1.43
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.484
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.60
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.502
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Madrid CF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	0.83
StdDev scored	1.39
StdDev allowed	0.92
Mean total goals/game	2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.145
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.194
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	—	22.22%	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.08
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.361
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	1.84
StdDev allowed	2.15
Mean total goals/game	4.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.122
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	28	18.5	+9.46
2	Barcelona	24	18.3	+5.70
3	Athletic Bilbao	25	19.4	+5.60
4	Racing Santander	20	18.8	+1.23
5	Valencia	15	15.4	-0.38

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Real Union	11	17.7	-6.68
2	Alaves	11	16.5	-5.46
3	Donostia FC	14	18.5	-4.47
4	Espanol	15	18.2	-3.19
5	Arenas de Getxo	17	18.8	-1.81

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	5	Feb 14 – Mar 13	1 in 80
2	Athletic Bilbao	4	Feb 14 – Mar 6	1 in 50
3	Barcelona	3	Mar 13 – Mar 27	1 in 45
4	Alaves	2	Jan 24 – Jan 31	1 in 11
5	Donostia FC	3	Dec 20 – Jan 3	1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	5	Feb 14 – Mar 13	1 in 255
2	Real Union	3	Nov 22 – Dec 20	1 in 73
3	Arenas de Getxo	4	Jan 24 – Feb 14	1 in 19
4	Donostia FC	4	Jan 10 – Jan 31	1 in 18
5	Espanol	2	Nov 29 – Dec 20	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	18	Nov 22 – Apr 3	1 in 398,399
2	Alaves	3	Jan 24 – Feb 7	1 in 24
3	Athletic Bilbao	7	Jan 24 – Mar 6	1 in 19
4	Arenas de Getxo	3	Nov 22 – Dec 20	1 in 5
5	Racing Santander	3	Jan 10 – Jan 24	1 in 5

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Santander	6	Jan 24 – Feb 28	1 in 116
2	Alaves	6	Feb 7 – Mar 13	1 in 44
3	Valencia	6	Dec 20 – Jan 24	1 in 26
4	Real Union	5	Nov 22 – Jan 3	1 in 23
5	Barcelona	3	Feb 21 – Mar 6	1 in 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Madrid CF	13.00%	14.00%	14.00%	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	7.00%	14.00%	9.00%	1.00%
Athletic Bilbao	24.00%	21.00%	10.00%	7.00%	14.00%	4.00%	4.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%
Barcelona	8.00%	13.00%	17.00%	16.00%	2.00%	7.00%	12.00%	9.00%	10.00%	6.00%
Racing Santander	13.00%	11.00%	8.00%	13.00%	18.00%	10.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	1.00%
Arenas de Getxo	16.00%	8.00%	11.00%	13.00%	15.00%	12.00%	5.00%	5.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Espanol	10.00%	11.00%	6.00%	9.00%	11.00%	16.00%	10.00%	14.00%	5.00%	8.00%
Valencia	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%	17.00%	33.00%
Donostia FC	6.00%	11.00%	17.00%	12.00%	12.00%	9.00%	14.00%	9.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Real Union	8.00%	5.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	9.00%	11.00%	14.00%	18.00%	12.00%
Alaves	1.00%	5.00%	7.00%	10.00%	4.00%	11.00%	17.00%	7.00%	14.00%	24.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Madrid CF	99.0%	1.0%
Racing Santander	99.0%	1.0%
Donostia FC	97.0%	3.0%
Athletic Bilbao	95.0%	5.0%
Barcelona	94.0%	6.0%
Arenas de Getxo	93.0%	7.0%
Espanol	92.0%	8.0%
Real Union	88.0%	12.0%
Alaves	76.0%	24.0%
Valencia	67.0%	33.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1931-11-22	Racing Santander	L 1-2	1651	1696	70.8%	12.8%	16.4%	-2.1	0
1931-11-22	@ Alaves	W 2-1	1696	1651	16.4%	12.8%	70.8%	+2.1	3
1931-11-22	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1701	1701	74.7%	11.9%	13.4%	+0.5	3
1931-11-22	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1701	1701	13.4%	11.9%	74.7%	-0.4	0
1931-11-22	Valencia	W 3-0	1696	1592	82.4%	9.4%	8.2%	+0.8	3
1931-11-22	@ Espanol	L 0-3	1592	1696	8.2%	9.4%	82.4%	-0.8	0
1931-11-22	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1700	1725	72.5%	12.5%	15.0%	-0.5	1
1931-11-22	@ Madrid CF	D 1-1	1725	1700	15.0%	12.5%	72.5%	+0.4	1
1931-11-22	Barcelona	L 1-3	1699	1700	74.6%	12.0%	13.5%	-3.8	0
1931-11-22	@ Real Union	W 3-1	1700	1699	13.5%	12.0%	74.6%	+3.8	3
1931-11-29	Alaves	W 3-2	1725	1649	80.5%	10.1%	9.4%	+0.3	4
1931-11-29	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1649	1725	9.4%	10.1%	80.5%	-0.3	0
1931-11-29	Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1703	1702	74.8%	11.9%	13.3%	-0.4	4
1931-11-29	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1702	1703	13.3%	11.9%	74.8%	+0.4	4
1931-11-29	Espanol	W 2-1	1698	1697	74.7%	11.9%	13.4%	+0.5	6
1931-11-29	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1697	1698	13.4%	11.9%	74.7%	-0.4	3
1931-11-29	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1700	1699	74.7%	11.9%	13.4%	-2.2	0
1931-11-29	@ Donostia FC	W 2-1	1699	1700	13.4%	11.9%	74.7%	+2.2	4
1931-11-29	Real Union	W 5-1	1591	1695	64.9%	13.7%	21.4%	+2.2	3
1931-11-29	@ Valencia	L 1-5	1695	1591	21.4%	13.7%	64.9%	-2.2	0
1931-12-20	Donostia FC	L 1-2	1649	1698	70.3%	12.9%	16.8%	-2.1	0
1931-12-20	@ Alaves	W 2-1	1698	1649	16.8%	12.9%	70.3%	+2.1	3
1931-12-20	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1702	1698	75.0%	11.9%	13.2%	+0.8	7
1931-12-20	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1698	1702	13.2%	11.9%	75.0%	-0.8	6
1931-12-20	Barcelona	L 0-3	1697	1703	74.1%	12.1%	13.8%	-6.4	3
1931-12-20	@ Espanol	W 3-0	1703	1697	13.8%	12.1%	74.1%	+6.4	7
1931-12-20	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1692	1726	71.8%	12.6%	15.6%	-6.8	0
1931-12-20	@ Real Union	W 5-1	1726	1692	15.6%	12.6%	71.8%	+6.8	7
1931-12-20	Madrid CF	D 1-1	1593	1702	64.4%	13.7%	21.9%	-0.3	4
1931-12-20	@ Valencia	D 1-1	1702	1593	21.9%	13.7%	64.4%	+0.3	5
1931-12-27	Barcelona	W 3-0	1732	1709	76.5%	11.4%	12.1%	+1.1	10
1931-12-27	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-3	1709	1732	12.1%	11.4%	76.5%	-1.2	7
1931-12-27	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-2	1690	1703	73.6%	12.2%	14.2%	+0.7	6
1931-12-27	@ Espanol	L 2-4	1703	1690	14.2%	12.2%	73.6%	-0.7	7
1931-12-27	Real Union	D 2-2	1697	1686	75.6%	11.7%	12.7%	-0.4	7
1931-12-27	@ Racing Santander	D 2-2	1686	1697	12.7%	11.7%	75.6%	+0.4	1
1931-12-27	Alaves	W 5-0	1702	1647	79.0%	10.7%	10.4%	+1.6	8
1931-12-27	@ Madrid CF	L 0-5	1647	1702	10.4%	10.7%	79.0%	-1.6	0
1931-12-27	Valencia	W 7-1	1700	1593	82.5%	9.3%	8.1%	+1.2	6
1931-12-27	@ Donostia FC	L 1-7	1593	1700	8.1%	9.3%	82.5%	-1.2	4
1932-01-03	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1702	1704	74.5%	12.0%	13.5%	-0.4	8
1932-01-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1704	1702	13.5%	12.0%	74.5%	+0.4	9
1932-01-03	Racing Santander	W 4-2	1708	1697	75.5%	11.7%	12.7%	+0.7	10
1932-01-03	@ Barcelona	L 2-4	1697	1708	12.7%	11.7%	75.5%	-0.6	7
1932-01-03	Real Union	W 5-0	1701	1686	75.9%	11.6%	12.5%	+1.9	9
1932-01-03	@ Donostia FC	L 0-5	1686	1701	12.5%	11.6%	75.9%	-1.9	1
1932-01-03	Athletic Bilbao	D 0-0	1592	1734	60.7%	14.0%	25.3%	-0.3	5
1932-01-03	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1734	1592	25.3%	14.0%	60.7%	+0.3	11
1932-01-06	Espanol	W 4-1	1645	1691	70.6%	12.8%	16.5%	+1.3	3
1932-01-06	@ Alaves	L 1-4	1691	1645	16.5%	12.8%	70.6%	-1.3	6
1932-01-10	Donostia FC	W 5-1	1734	1703	77.1%	11.3%	11.7%	+1.2	14
1932-01-10	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1703	1734	11.7%	11.3%	77.1%	-1.2	9
1932-01-10	Alaves	W 6-0	1709	1647	79.5%	10.5%	10.1%	+1.8	13
1932-01-10	@ Barcelona	L 0-6	1647	1709	10.1%	10.5%	79.5%	-1.8	3
1932-01-10	Valencia	W 4-1	1696	1591	82.4%	9.4%	8.2%	+0.6	10
1932-01-10	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1591	1696	8.2%	9.4%	82.4%	-0.7	5
1932-01-10	Espanol	W 3-0	1704	1690	75.8%	11.6%	12.6%	+1.2	12
1932-01-10	@ Madrid CF	L 0-3	1690	1704	12.6%	11.6%	75.8%	-1.2	6
1932-01-10	Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1684	1702	73.1%	12.3%	14.5%	+0.5	4
1932-01-10	@ Real Union	L 0-1	1702	1684	14.5%	12.3%	73.1%	-0.5	8
1932-01-17	Alaves	W 4-2	1701	1645	79.0%	10.6%	10.3%	+0.5	11
1932-01-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-4	1645	1701	10.3%	10.6%	79.0%	-0.5	3
1932-01-17	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1688	1735	70.6%	12.9%	16.6%	+0.6	9
1932-01-17	@ Espanol	L 0-1	1735	1688	16.6%	12.9%	70.6%	-0.6	14
1932-01-17	Real Union	W 3-2	1705	1685	76.3%	11.5%	12.2%	+0.4	15
1932-01-17	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1685	1705	12.2%	11.5%	76.3%	-0.4	4
1932-01-17	Racing Santander	L 1-5	1702	1697	75.0%	11.8%	13.1%	-7.0	9
1932-01-17	@ Donostia FC	W 5-1	1697	1702	13.1%	11.8%	75.0%	+7.0	13
1932-01-17	Barcelona	D 0-0	1591	1711	63.2%	13.8%	23.0%	-0.3	6
1932-01-17	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1711	1591	23.0%	13.8%	63.2%	+0.3	14
1932-01-24	Valencia	W 2-1	1644	1590	78.8%	10.7%	10.5%	+0.3	6
1932-01-24	@ Alaves	L 1-2	1590	1644	10.5%	10.7%	78.8%	-0.3	6
1932-01-24	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1734	1702	77.2%	11.2%	11.5%	+0.9	17
1932-01-24	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1702	1734	11.5%	11.2%	77.2%	-0.9	11
1932-01-24	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1711	1695	75.9%	11.6%	12.5%	+0.8	17
1932-01-24	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1695	1711	12.5%	11.6%	75.9%	-0.8	9
1932-01-24	Madrid CF	D 0-0	1704	1706	74.5%	12.0%	13.5%	-0.5	14
1932-01-24	@ Racing Santander	D 0-0	1706	1704	13.5%	12.0%	74.5%	+0.5	16
1932-01-24	Espanol	W 4-1	1684	1689	74.2%	12.1%	13.7%	+1.1	7
1932-01-24	@ Real Union	L 1-4	1689	1684	13.7%	12.1%	74.2%	-1.1	9
1932-01-31	Racing Santander	W 3-2	1735	1704	77.2%	11.2%	11.6%	+0.4	20
1932-01-31	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1704	1735	11.6%	11.2%	77.2%	-0.4	14
1932-01-31	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1688	1694	74.1%	12.1%	13.8%	+0.9	12
1932-01-31	@ Espanol	L 0-2	1694	1688	13.8%	12.1%	74.1%	-0.9	9
1932-01-31	Barcelona	W 2-0	1706	1712	74.2%	12.1%	13.8%	+0.9	19
1932-01-31	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1712	1706	13.8%	12.1%	74.2%	-0.9	17
1932-01-31	Alaves	L 0-2	1685	1645	77.9%	11.0%	11.1%	-4.6	7
1932-01-31	@ Real Union	W 2-0	1645	1685	11.1%	11.0%	77.9%	+4.6	9
1932-01-31	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1590	1701	64.2%	13.8%	22.1%	+0.7	9
1932-01-31	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1701	1590	22.1%	13.8%	64.2%	-0.7	11
1932-02-07	Madrid CF	D 3-3	1736	1707	77.0%	11.3%	11.8%	-0.3	21
1932-02-07	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 3-3	1707	1736	11.8%	11.3%	77.0%	+0.3	20
1932-02-07	Real Union	W 3-2	1711	1681	77.0%	11.3%	11.7%	+0.4	20
1932-02-07	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1681	1711	11.7%	11.3%	77.0%	-0.4	7
1932-02-07	Alaves	D 1-1	1703	1649	78.9%	10.7%	10.4%	-0.5	15
1932-02-07	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1649	1703	10.4%	10.7%	78.9%	+0.6	10
1932-02-07	Arenas de Getxo	W 7-0	1693	1700	74.1%	12.1%	13.8%	+3.0	12
1932-02-07	@ Donostia FC	L 0-7	1700	1693	13.8%	12.1%	74.1%	-3.0	11
1932-02-07	Espanol	W 3-1	1591	1689	65.5%	13.6%	20.9%	+1.2	12
1932-02-07	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1689	1591	20.9%	13.6%	65.5%	-1.2	12
1932-02-14	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-1	1650	1735	66.8%	13.5%	19.8%	-2.1	10
1932-02-14	@ Alaves	W 1-0	1735	1650	19.8%	13.5%	66.8%	+2.1	24
1932-02-14	Barcelona	L 1-3	1697	1711	73.4%	12.2%	14.3%	-3.8	11
1932-02-14	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1711	1697	14.3%	12.2%	73.4%	+3.8	23
1932-02-14	Donostia FC	W 1-0	1707	1696	75.5%	11.7%	12.8%	+0.4	23
1932-02-14	@ Madrid CF	L 0-1	1696	1707	12.8%	11.7%	75.5%	-0.5	12
1932-02-16	Racing Santander	W 6-1	1688	1703	73.4%	12.3%	14.4%	+1.8	15
1932-02-16	@ Espanol	L 1-6	1703	1688	14.4%	12.3%	73.4%	-1.8	15
1932-02-16	Valencia	W 3-2	1680	1592	81.3%	9.8%	8.9%	+0.3	10
1932-02-16	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1592	1680	8.9%	9.8%	81.3%	-0.3	12
1932-02-21	Real Union	W 2-1	1738	1681	79.1%	10.6%	10.3%	+0.3	27
1932-02-21	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1681	1738	10.3%	10.6%	79.1%	-0.3	10
1932-02-21	Espanol	D 2-2	1715	1690	76.7%	11.4%	11.9%	-0.4	24
1932-02-21	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1690	1715	11.9%	11.4%	76.7%	+0.4	16
1932-02-21	Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1701	1693	75.2%	11.8%	13.0%	-0.5	16
1932-02-21	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1693	1701	13.0%	11.8%	75.2%	+0.5	12
1932-02-21	Valencia	W 4-1	1708	1592	83.1%	9.1%	7.8%	+0.6	26
1932-02-21	@ Madrid CF	L 1-4	1592	1708	7.8%	9.1%	83.1%	-0.6	12
1932-02-21	Alaves	W 4-1	1696	1648	78.4%	10.8%	10.7%	+0.9	15
1932-02-21	@ Donostia FC	L 1-4	1648	1696	10.7%	10.8%	78.4%	-0.9	10
1932-02-28	Madrid CF	L 0-1	1647	1708	69.1%	13.1%	17.8%	-2.2	10
1932-02-28	@ Alaves	W 1-0	1708	1647	17.8%	13.1%	69.1%	+2.2	29
1932-02-28	Espanol	W 3-2	1694	1690	75.0%	11.9%	13.2%	+0.4	15
1932-02-28	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1690	1694	13.2%	11.9%	75.0%	-0.4	16
1932-02-28	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1715	1738	72.7%	12.4%	14.9%	-3.7	24
1932-02-28	@ Barcelona	W 3-1	1738	1715	14.9%	12.4%	72.7%	+3.7	30
1932-02-28	Racing Santander	D 2-2	1680	1700	73.0%	12.4%	14.7%	-0.3	11
1932-02-28	@ Real Union	D 2-2	1700	1680	14.7%	12.4%	73.0%	+0.3	17
1932-02-28	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1591	1697	64.7%	13.7%	21.6%	+2.7	15
1932-02-28	@ Valencia	L 0-4	1697	1591	21.6%	13.7%	64.7%	-2.7	15
1932-03-06	Valencia	W 7-2	1742	1594	85.0%	8.2%	6.7%	+0.7	33
1932-03-06	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-7	1594	1742	6.7%	8.2%	85.0%	-0.7	15
1932-03-06	Alaves	W 4-0	1690	1644	78.2%	10.9%	10.9%	+1.3	19
1932-03-06	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1644	1690	10.9%	10.9%	78.2%	-1.4	10
1932-03-06	Barcelona	W 3-2	1701	1711	73.8%	12.2%	14.1%	+0.4	20
1932-03-06	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1711	1701	14.1%	12.2%	73.8%	-0.5	24
1932-03-06	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1711	1694	76.0%	11.6%	12.4%	+1.6	32
1932-03-06	@ Madrid CF	L 0-4	1694	1711	12.4%	11.6%	76.0%	-1.6	15
1932-03-06	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1680	1694	73.5%	12.2%	14.3%	+1.0	14
1932-03-06	@ Real Union	L 0-2	1694	1680	14.3%	12.2%	73.5%	-1.0	15
1932-03-13	Barcelona	L 1-3	1643	1711	68.6%	13.2%	18.2%	-3.5	10
1932-03-13	@ Alaves	W 3-1	1711	1643	18.2%	13.2%	68.6%	+3.5	27
1932-03-13	Real Union	W 5-0	1693	1681	75.6%	11.7%	12.7%	+2.0	18
1932-03-13	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-5	1681	1693	12.7%	11.7%	75.6%	-2.0	14
1932-03-13	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1691	1712	72.8%	12.4%	14.8%	-2.2	19
1932-03-13	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1712	1691	14.8%	12.4%	72.8%	+2.2	35
1932-03-13	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1693	1742	70.3%	12.9%	16.8%	+0.5	18
1932-03-13	@ Donostia FC	L 2-3	1742	1693	16.8%	12.9%	70.3%	-0.5	33
1932-03-13	Racing Santander	W 6-4	1593	1701	64.5%	13.7%	21.8%	+1.0	18
1932-03-13	@ Valencia	L 4-6	1701	1593	21.8%	13.7%	64.5%	-1.0	20
1932-03-20	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1640	1695	69.8%	13.0%	17.2%	+1.0	13
1932-03-20	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1695	1640	17.2%	13.0%	69.8%	-1.0	18
1932-03-20	Espanol	W 4-0	1742	1689	78.8%	10.7%	10.5%	+1.3	36
1932-03-20	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1689	1742	10.5%	10.7%	78.8%	-1.3	19
1932-03-20	Valencia	W 3-2	1714	1594	83.4%	9.0%	7.7%	+0.2	30
1932-03-20	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1594	1714	7.7%	9.0%	83.4%	-0.2	18
1932-03-20	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1700	1694	75.2%	11.8%	13.0%	+0.4	23
1932-03-20	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1694	1700	13.0%	11.8%	75.2%	-0.4	18
1932-03-20	Madrid CF	D 1-1	1679	1714	71.6%	12.7%	15.8%	-0.4	15
1932-03-20	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1714	1679	15.8%	12.7%	71.6%	+0.4	36
1932-03-27	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1694	1743	70.3%	12.9%	16.8%	+0.6	21
1932-03-27	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1743	1694	16.8%	12.9%	70.3%	-0.6	36
1932-03-27	Real Union	W 3-1	1687	1679	75.4%	11.8%	12.9%	+0.7	22
1932-03-27	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1679	1687	12.9%	11.8%	75.4%	-0.7	15
1932-03-27	Racing Santander	D 0-0	1715	1700	75.8%	11.6%	12.6%	-0.6	37
1932-03-27	@ Madrid CF	D 0-0	1700	1715	12.6%	11.6%	75.8%	+0.6	24
1932-03-27	Barcelona	L 0-1	1693	1714	72.8%	12.4%	14.8%	-2.3	18
1932-03-27	@ Donostia FC	W 1-0	1714	1693	14.8%	12.4%	72.8%	+2.3	33
1932-03-27	Alaves	W 5-1	1594	1641	70.5%	12.9%	16.6%	+1.8	21
1932-03-27	@ Valencia	L 1-5	1641	1594	16.6%	12.9%	70.5%	-1.8	13
1932-04-03	Real Union	W 1-0	1639	1678	71.2%	12.7%	16.0%	+0.6	16
1932-04-03	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1678	1639	16.0%	12.7%	71.2%	-0.6	15
1932-04-03	Valencia	W 4-1	1694	1596	82.0%	9.6%	8.5%	+0.7	24
1932-04-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-4	1596	1694	8.5%	9.6%	82.0%	-0.7	21
1932-04-03	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1717	1714	74.8%	11.9%	13.3%	-0.4	34
1932-04-03	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1714	1717	13.3%	11.9%	74.8%	+0.4	38
1932-04-03	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1701	1743	71.0%	12.8%	16.2%	+1.1	27
1932-04-03	@ Racing Santander	L 0-2	1743	1701	16.2%	12.8%	71.0%	-1.1	36
1932-04-03	Espanol	W 5-2	1691	1688	74.9%	11.9%	13.2%	+0.9	21
1932-04-03	@ Donostia FC	L 2-5	1688	1691	13.2%	11.9%	74.9%	-0.9	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1932-01-31	11.11%	Alaves	1645	2	@ Real Union	1685	0
2	1932-01-17	13.10%	Racing Santander	1697	5	@ Donostia FC	1702	1
3	1931-11-29	13.36%	Madrid CF	1699	2	@ Donostia FC	1700	1
4	1931-11-22	13.47%	Barcelona	1700	3	@ Real Union	1699	1
5	1931-12-20	13.80%	Barcelona	1703	3	@ Espanol	1697	0
6	1932-02-14	14.31%	Barcelona	1711	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1697	1
7	1932-03-27	14.77%	Barcelona	1714	1	@ Donostia FC	1693	0
8	1932-03-13	14.78%	Madrid CF	1712	2	@ Espanol	1691	1
9	1932-02-28	14.91%	Athletic Bilbao	1738	3	@ Barcelona	1715	1
10	1931-12-20	15.60%	Athletic Bilbao	1726	5	@ Real Union	1692	1
11	1931-11-22	16.41%	Racing Santander	1696	2	@ Alaves	1651	1
12	1931-12-20	16.78%	Donostia FC	1698	2	@ Alaves	1649	1
13	1932-02-28	17.75%	Madrid CF	1708	1	@ Alaves	1647	0
14	1932-03-13	18.21%	Barcelona	1711	3	@ Alaves	1643	1
15	1932-02-14	19.77%	Athletic Bilbao	1735	1	@ Alaves	1650	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-01-17	7.03	Racing Santander	5	1697	13.10%	@ Donostia FC	1	1702	75.05%
2	1931-12-20	6.76	Athletic Bilbao	5	1726	15.60%	@ Real Union	1	1692	71.78%
3	1931-12-20	6.39	Barcelona	3	1703	13.80%	@ Espanol	0	1697	74.11%
4	1932-01-31	4.58	Alaves	2	1645	11.11%	@ Real Union	0	1685	77.88%
5	1931-11-22	3.83	Barcelona	3	1700	13.47%	@ Real Union	1	1699	74.55%
6	1932-02-14	3.78	Barcelona	3	1711	14.31%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1697	73.44%
7	1932-02-28	3.74	Athletic Bilbao	3	1738	14.91%	@ Barcelona	1	1715	72.66%
8	1932-03-13	3.55	Barcelona	3	1711	18.21%	@ Alaves	1	1643	68.59%
9	1932-02-07	2.96	@ Donostia FC	7	1693	74.06%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1700	13.84%
10	1932-02-28	2.72	@ Valencia	4	1591	64.72%	Donostia FC	0	1697	21.58%
11	1932-03-27	2.30	Barcelona	1	1714	14.77%	@ Donostia FC	0	1693	72.83%
12	1931-11-29	2.25	@ Valencia	5	1591	64.92%	Real Union	1	1695	21.40%
13	1931-11-29	2.22	Madrid CF	2	1699	13.36%	@ Donostia FC	1	1700	74.70%
14	1932-02-28	2.19	Madrid CF	1	1708	17.75%	@ Alaves	0	1647	69.14%
15	1932-03-13	2.16	Madrid CF	2	1712	14.78%	@ Espanol	1	1691	72.83%
16	1932-02-14	2.12	Athletic Bilbao	1	1735	19.77%	@ Alaves	0	1650	66.77%
17	1931-11-22	2.11	Racing Santander	2	1696	16.41%	@ Alaves	1	1651	70.76%
18	1931-12-20	2.10	Donostia FC	2	1698	16.78%	@ Alaves	1	1649	70.31%
19	1932-03-13	1.97	@ Arenas de Getxo	5	1693	75.60%	Real Union	0	1681	12.71%
20	1932-01-03	1.93	@ Donostia FC	5	1701	75.88%	Real Union	0	1686	12.50%
21	1932-02-16	1.85	@ Espanol	6	1688	73.37%	Racing Santander	1	1703	14.36%
22	1932-01-10	1.82	@ Barcelona	6	1709	79.46%	Alaves	0	1647	10.05%
23	1932-03-27	1.75	@ Valencia	5	1594	70.55%	Alaves	1	1641	16.59%
24	1931-12-27	1.59	@ Madrid CF	5	1702	78.95%	Alaves	0	1647	10.39%
25	1932-03-06	1.56	@ Madrid CF	4	1711	75.96%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1694	12.45%