1932-33 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Real Madrid

1st Title

Last Title: 1931-32

Relegated

Alaves

12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Madrid CF

8.49 points above expected

28 points · 19.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alaves

5.79 points below expected

12 points · 17.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	18	13	2	3	28	49	17	+32	19.5	+8.49
2	Athletic Bilbao	18	13	0	5	26	63	30	+33	19.9	+6.10
3	Espanol	18	10	2	6	22	33	30	+3	18.7	+3.32
4	Barcelona	18	7	5	6	19	42	34	+8	19.4	-0.43
5	Real Betis	18	6	5	7	17	31	45	-14	12.6	+4.37
6	Donostia FC	18	6	3	9	15	41	47	-6	18.6	-3.56
7	Arenas de Getxo	18	5	4	9	14	39	44	-5	18.9	-4.87
8	Racing Santander	18	6	2	10	14	47	58	-11	18.5	-4.46
9	Valencia	18	4	5	9	13	34	53	-19	16.2	-3.17
10	Alaves	18	5	2	11	12	21	42	-21	17.8	-5.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1750	26	19.90	+6.10	97.0%	13	14	17	20	22	25	32
Madrid CF	1735	28	19.51	+8.49	100.0%	10	13	17	19	22	24	28
Barcelona	1715	19	19.43	-0.43	56.0%	11	14	18	19	22	24	26
Espanol	1698	22	18.68	+3.32	89.0%	12	13	16	19	21	24	27
Racing Santander	1694	14	18.46	-4.46	14.0%	10	13	16	19	21	24	26
Donostia FC	1690	15	18.56	-3.56	19.0%	11	13	16	18	21	25	28
Arenas de Getxo	1689	14	18.87	-4.87	6.0%	11	13	17	19	21	23	25
Alaves	1644	12	17.79	-5.79	8.0%	11	12	15	18	20	22	26
Valencia	1617	13	16.17	-3.17	24.0%	10	10	14	16	18	24	25
Real Betis	1543	17	12.63	+4.37	94.0%	3	7	11	13	15	18	23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	ADG	AB	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RB	VAL
Alaves	—	0-1-1 2.66	0-0-2 2.44	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.59	0-0-2 2.54	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 3.43	0-1-1 3.03
Arenas de Getxo	1-1-0 3.08	—	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.83	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 2.83	0-2-0 3.66	0-1-1 3.23
Athletic Bilbao	2-0-0 3.31	1-0-1 3.13	—	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.06	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 3.49
Barcelona	1-0-1 3.21	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.74	—	1-1-0 2.99	0-1-1 2.94	0-1-1 2.82	1-1-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.80	1-1-0 3.35
Donostia FC	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.61	0-1-1 2.75	—	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.71	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 3.67	1-1-0 3.23
Espanol	1-0-1 3.15	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.94	—	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.73	1-1-0 3.29
Madrid CF	2-0-0 3.22	2-0-0 3.06	1-0-1 2.81	1-1-0 2.93	2-0-0 3.03	1-0-1 2.98	—	1-0-1 3.03	1-1-0 3.89	2-0-0 3.42
Racing Santander	1-0-1 3.10	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.68	0-1-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.71	—	0-1-1 3.71	1-0-1 3.27
Real Betis	1-0-1 2.32	0-2-0 2.11	0-0-2 1.87	1-0-1 1.97	1-1-0 2.09	1-0-1 2.04	0-1-1 1.88	1-1-0 2.05	—	1-0-1 2.44
Valencia	1-1-0 2.71	1-1-0 2.52	0-0-2 2.27	0-1-1 2.40	0-1-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.46	0-0-2 2.33	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 3.31	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	3.33%	5.00%	1.11%	1.11%	2.22%	13.89%
1	3.33%	6.67%	7.78%	3.33%	2.22%	3.89%	27.22%
2	5.00%	7.78%	6.67%	3.33%	2.78%	5.00%	30.56%
3	1.11%	3.33%	3.33%	1.11%	—	—	8.89%
4	1.11%	2.22%	2.78%	—	1.11%	—	7.22%
5+	2.22%	3.89%	5.00%	—	—	1.11%	12.22%
Total	13.89%	27.22%	30.56%	8.89%	7.22%	12.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	1.96
StdDev allowed	1.96
Mean total goals/game	4.44
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.034
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.86
StdDev allowed	2.17
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.146
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	27.78%	22.22%	—	16.67%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	1.54
StdDev allowed	1.98
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.296
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.50
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	2.90
StdDev allowed	1.37
Mean total goals/game	5.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.222
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	50.00%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.116
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	50.00%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Donostia FC — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	2.02
StdDev allowed	2.03
Mean total goals/game	4.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.501
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	22.22%	5.56%	—	11.11%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.152
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	38.89%	38.89%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Madrid CF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.72
Mean allowed	0.94
StdDev scored	2.27
StdDev allowed	1.06
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.239
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	3.22
StdDev scored	2.43
StdDev allowed	2.82
Mean total goals/game	5.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.210
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Real Betis — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.13
StdDev allowed	2.04
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.167
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	44.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	—	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	2.94
StdDev scored	1.57
StdDev allowed	1.98
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.134
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	28	19.5	+8.49
2	Athletic Bilbao	26	19.9	+6.10
3	Real Betis	17	12.6	+4.37
4	Espanol	22	18.7	+3.32
5	Barcelona	19	19.4	-0.43

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alaves	12	17.8	-5.79
2	Arenas de Getxo	14	18.9	-4.87
3	Racing Santander	14	18.5	-4.46
4	Donostia FC	15	18.6	-3.56
5	Valencia	13	16.2	-3.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	6	Jan 8 – Feb 12	1 in 399
2	Espanol	5	Nov 27 – Dec 25	1 in 124
3	Athletic Bilbao	3	Nov 27 – Dec 11	1 in 8
4	Real Betis	2	Dec 4 – Dec 12	1 in 3
5	Arenas de Getxo	2	Dec 25 – Jan 1	51%

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	6	Dec 4 – Jan 8	1 in 66
2	Arenas de Getxo	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 18
3	Real Betis	4	Jan 17 – Feb 5	1 in 13
4	Racing Santander	3	Nov 27 – Dec 11	1 in 11
5	Espanol	3	Feb 12 – Feb 26	1 in 11

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	14	Dec 4 – Mar 5	1 in 3,661
2	Espanol	9	Nov 27 – Jan 22	1 in 496
3	Real Betis	4	Mar 5 – Mar 28	1 in 67
4	Donostia FC	3	Mar 5 – Mar 19	1 in 13
5	Barcelona	5	Jan 1 – Jan 29	1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valencia	7	Dec 4 – Jan 15	1 in 31
2	Arenas de Getxo	5	Jan 8 – Feb 5	1 in 27
3	Real Betis	9	Jan 1 – Feb 26	1 in 27
4	Alaves	6	Dec 4 – Jan 8	1 in 14
5	Donostia FC	3	Nov 27 – Dec 12	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Madrid CF	19.00%	12.00%	15.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	9.00%	7.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Athletic Bilbao	27.00%	12.00%	15.00%	9.00%	5.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Espanol	9.00%	14.00%	11.00%	14.00%	14.00%	9.00%	10.00%	10.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Barcelona	7.00%	17.00%	13.00%	16.00%	17.00%	9.00%	11.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Real Betis	1.00%	—	—	—	—	6.00%	5.00%	14.00%	19.00%	55.00%
Donostia FC	10.00%	15.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	12.00%	13.00%	7.00%	11.00%	7.00%
Arenas de Getxo	7.00%	10.00%	16.00%	11.00%	16.00%	13.00%	10.00%	4.00%	9.00%	4.00%
Racing Santander	8.00%	11.00%	9.00%	16.00%	9.00%	12.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	9.00%
Valencia	5.00%	5.00%	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	4.00%	13.00%	22.00%	24.00%	13.00%
Alaves	7.00%	4.00%	9.00%	11.00%	11.00%	16.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao	99.0%	1.0%
Barcelona	99.0%	1.0%
Madrid CF	99.0%	1.0%
Espanol	97.0%	3.0%
Arenas de Getxo	96.0%	4.0%
Alaves	94.0%	6.0%
Donostia FC	93.0%	7.0%
Racing Santander	91.0%	9.0%
Valencia	87.0%	13.0%
Real Betis	45.0%	55.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1932-11-27	Racing Santander	W 8-2	1658	1703	65.7%	13.6%	20.6%	+2.7	3
1932-11-27	@ Alaves	L 2-8	1703	1658	20.6%	13.6%	65.7%	-2.7	0
1932-11-27	Real Betis	W 9-1	1732	1543	84.7%	8.2%	7.1%	+1.4	3
1932-11-27	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-9	1543	1732	7.1%	8.2%	84.7%	-1.4	0
1932-11-27	Madrid CF	W 2-1	1693	1712	68.3%	13.2%	18.4%	+0.6	3
1932-11-27	@ Espanol	L 1-2	1712	1693	18.4%	13.2%	68.3%	-0.7	0
1932-11-27	Barcelona	D 2-2	1696	1713	68.6%	13.2%	18.2%	-0.3	1
1932-11-27	@ Donostia FC	D 2-2	1713	1696	18.2%	13.2%	68.6%	+0.3	1
1932-11-27	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1627	1698	62.9%	14.0%	23.1%	+0.8	3
1932-11-27	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1698	1627	23.1%	14.0%	62.9%	-0.8	0
1932-12-04	Espanol	L 0-2	1697	1693	70.5%	12.8%	16.6%	-4.4	0
1932-12-04	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1693	1697	16.6%	12.8%	70.5%	+4.4	6
1932-12-04	Alaves	W 2-0	1713	1661	74.9%	11.8%	13.4%	+0.9	4
1932-12-04	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1661	1713	13.4%	11.8%	74.9%	-0.9	3
1932-12-04	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-1	1700	1734	66.9%	13.5%	19.6%	-2.2	0
1932-12-04	@ Racing Santander	W 1-0	1734	1700	19.6%	13.5%	66.9%	+2.2	6
1932-12-04	Valencia	W 3-2	1542	1628	61.2%	14.1%	24.7%	+0.8	3
1932-12-04	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1628	1542	24.7%	14.1%	61.2%	-0.8	3
1932-12-04	Donostia FC	W 6-2	1711	1696	71.6%	12.6%	15.8%	+1.5	3
1932-12-04	@ Madrid CF	L 2-6	1696	1711	15.8%	12.6%	71.6%	-1.5	1
1932-12-11	Madrid CF	L 0-1	1660	1713	64.9%	13.8%	21.4%	-2.2	3
1932-12-11	@ Alaves	W 1-0	1713	1660	21.4%	13.8%	64.9%	+2.2	6
1932-12-11	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1736	1693	74.1%	12.0%	13.9%	+0.8	9
1932-12-11	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1693	1736	13.9%	12.0%	74.1%	-0.8	0
1932-12-11	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1698	1698	70.2%	12.9%	16.9%	+0.6	9
1932-12-11	@ Espanol	L 1-2	1698	1698	16.9%	12.9%	70.2%	-0.6	0
1932-12-11	Barcelona	D 2-2	1627	1714	61.1%	14.1%	24.8%	-0.2	4
1932-12-11	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1714	1627	24.8%	14.1%	61.1%	+0.2	5
1932-12-12	Donostia FC	W 4-2	1543	1695	53.2%	14.4%	32.4%	+1.7	6
1932-12-12	@ Real Betis	L 2-4	1695	1543	32.4%	14.4%	53.2%	-1.7	1
1932-12-18	Espanol	L 0-2	1737	1698	73.6%	12.1%	14.2%	-4.6	9
1932-12-18	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1698	1737	14.2%	12.1%	73.6%	+4.6	12
1932-12-18	Arenas de Getxo	W 5-2	1714	1692	72.2%	12.4%	15.3%	+1.1	8
1932-12-18	@ Barcelona	L 2-5	1692	1714	15.3%	12.4%	72.2%	-1.1	0
1932-12-18	Valencia	W 2-0	1697	1627	76.3%	11.4%	12.3%	+0.8	3
1932-12-18	@ Racing Santander	L 0-2	1627	1697	12.3%	11.4%	76.3%	-0.9	4
1932-12-18	Real Betis	W 4-1	1715	1544	83.5%	8.7%	7.7%	+0.6	9
1932-12-18	@ Madrid CF	L 1-4	1544	1715	7.7%	8.7%	83.5%	-0.6	6
1932-12-18	Alaves	W 3-1	1693	1658	73.4%	12.2%	14.4%	+0.9	4
1932-12-18	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1658	1693	14.4%	12.2%	73.4%	-0.9	3
1932-12-25	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-2	1657	1732	62.5%	14.0%	23.5%	-3.9	3
1932-12-25	@ Alaves	W 2-0	1732	1657	23.5%	14.0%	62.5%	+3.9	12
1932-12-25	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1691	1698	69.5%	13.0%	17.5%	+0.6	3
1932-12-25	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1698	1691	17.5%	13.0%	69.5%	-0.6	3
1932-12-25	Donostia FC	W 3-0	1703	1694	71.0%	12.7%	16.2%	+1.7	15
1932-12-25	@ Espanol	L 0-3	1694	1703	16.2%	12.7%	71.0%	-1.7	4
1932-12-25	Barcelona	W 2-1	1544	1715	50.6%	14.4%	35.0%	+1.2	9
1932-12-25	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1715	1544	35.0%	14.4%	50.6%	-1.2	8
1932-12-25	Valencia	W 6-0	1716	1626	77.8%	10.9%	11.3%	+2.1	12
1932-12-25	@ Madrid CF	L 0-6	1626	1716	11.3%	10.9%	77.8%	-2.1	4
1933-01-01	Alaves	W 3-0	1691	1653	73.7%	12.1%	14.2%	+1.4	6
1933-01-01	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-3	1653	1691	14.2%	12.1%	73.7%	-1.4	3
1933-01-01	Madrid CF	D 1-1	1714	1718	69.9%	13.0%	17.2%	-0.4	9
1933-01-01	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1718	1714	17.2%	13.0%	69.9%	+0.4	13
1933-01-01	Real Betis	D 2-2	1697	1545	82.4%	9.2%	8.4%	-0.5	4
1933-01-01	@ Racing Santander	D 2-2	1545	1697	8.4%	9.2%	82.4%	+0.5	10
1933-01-01	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-4	1692	1736	65.8%	13.6%	20.5%	-3.2	4
1933-01-01	@ Donostia FC	W 4-2	1736	1692	20.5%	13.6%	65.8%	+3.2	15
1933-01-01	Espanol	D 1-1	1624	1705	61.8%	14.1%	24.1%	-0.3	5
1933-01-01	@ Valencia	D 1-1	1705	1624	24.1%	14.1%	61.8%	+0.3	16
1933-01-08	Barcelona	L 1-3	1739	1714	72.5%	12.4%	15.1%	-3.9	15
1933-01-08	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 3-1	1714	1739	15.1%	12.4%	72.5%	+3.9	12
1933-01-08	Alaves	W 3-1	1705	1652	74.9%	11.8%	13.3%	+0.8	19
1933-01-08	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1652	1705	13.3%	11.8%	74.9%	-0.8	3
1933-01-08	Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1545	1693	53.8%	14.4%	31.8%	-0.2	11
1933-01-08	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1693	1545	31.8%	14.4%	53.8%	+0.2	7
1933-01-08	Racing Santander	W 4-1	1718	1697	72.1%	12.5%	15.4%	+1.3	16
1933-01-08	@ Madrid CF	L 1-4	1697	1718	15.4%	12.5%	72.1%	-1.3	4
1933-01-08	Valencia	W 4-1	1689	1624	75.9%	11.5%	12.6%	+1.1	7
1933-01-08	@ Donostia FC	L 1-4	1624	1689	12.6%	11.5%	75.9%	-1.1	5
1933-01-15	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1623	1735	58.1%	14.3%	27.6%	-5.8	5
1933-01-15	@ Valencia	W 5-1	1735	1623	27.6%	14.3%	58.1%	+5.8	18
1933-01-17	Real Betis	W 2-0	1651	1545	79.0%	10.5%	10.5%	+0.7	6
1933-01-17	@ Alaves	L 0-2	1545	1651	10.5%	10.5%	79.0%	-0.7	11
1933-01-17	Madrid CF	L 1-5	1693	1719	67.6%	13.4%	19.0%	-6.7	7
1933-01-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 5-1	1719	1693	19.0%	13.4%	67.6%	+6.7	19
1933-01-17	Espanol	D 1-1	1718	1706	71.3%	12.7%	16.0%	-0.5	13
1933-01-17	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1706	1718	16.0%	12.7%	71.3%	+0.5	20
1933-01-17	Donostia FC	W 7-1	1696	1690	70.7%	12.8%	16.5%	+2.6	7
1933-01-17	@ Racing Santander	L 1-7	1690	1696	16.5%	12.8%	70.7%	-2.6	7
1933-01-22	Madrid CF	L 0-2	1741	1726	71.6%	12.6%	15.8%	-4.5	18
1933-01-22	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1726	1741	15.8%	12.6%	71.6%	+4.5	22
1933-01-22	Racing Santander	W 4-0	1717	1698	71.9%	12.5%	15.5%	+2.1	16
1933-01-22	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1698	1717	15.5%	12.5%	71.9%	-2.1	7
1933-01-22	Espanol	L 1-2	1545	1706	51.9%	14.4%	33.7%	-1.7	11
1933-01-22	@ Real Betis	W 2-1	1706	1545	33.7%	14.4%	51.9%	+1.7	23
1933-01-22	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1687	1686	70.3%	12.9%	16.8%	+0.6	10
1933-01-22	@ Donostia FC	L 1-2	1686	1687	16.8%	12.9%	70.3%	-0.6	7
1933-01-22	Alaves	W 5-2	1617	1651	66.8%	13.5%	19.7%	+1.5	8
1933-01-22	@ Valencia	L 2-5	1651	1617	19.7%	13.5%	66.8%	-1.5	6
1933-01-29	Valencia	D 2-2	1686	1618	76.1%	11.4%	12.5%	-0.4	8
1933-01-29	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1618	1686	12.5%	11.4%	76.1%	+0.4	9
1933-01-29	Donostia FC	W 3-2	1719	1688	73.0%	12.3%	14.7%	+0.5	19
1933-01-29	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1688	1719	14.7%	12.3%	73.0%	-0.5	10
1933-01-29	Alaves	W 9-0	1696	1650	74.3%	11.9%	13.7%	+3.9	10
1933-01-29	@ Racing Santander	L 0-9	1650	1696	13.7%	11.9%	74.3%	-3.9	6
1933-01-29	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1543	1737	47.7%	14.3%	38.0%	-4.8	11
1933-01-29	@ Real Betis	W 5-1	1737	1543	38.0%	14.3%	47.7%	+4.8	21
1933-01-29	Espanol	W 2-0	1731	1708	72.3%	12.4%	15.3%	+1.1	25
1933-01-29	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1708	1731	15.3%	12.4%	72.3%	-1.1	23
1933-02-05	Barcelona	W 2-1	1646	1720	62.6%	14.0%	23.4%	+0.8	9
1933-02-05	@ Alaves	L 1-2	1720	1646	23.4%	14.0%	62.6%	-0.8	19
1933-02-05	Racing Santander	W 9-5	1741	1700	73.9%	12.0%	14.1%	+1.1	24
1933-02-05	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 5-9	1700	1741	14.1%	12.0%	73.9%	-1.1	10
1933-02-05	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1707	1685	72.2%	12.5%	15.4%	+0.5	26
1933-02-05	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1685	1707	15.4%	12.5%	72.2%	-0.5	8
1933-02-05	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1687	1732	65.8%	13.6%	20.6%	-2.1	10
1933-02-05	@ Donostia FC	W 2-1	1732	1687	20.6%	13.6%	65.8%	+2.1	28
1933-02-05	Real Betis	W 2-1	1619	1538	77.1%	11.1%	11.7%	+0.4	12
1933-02-05	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1538	1619	11.7%	11.1%	77.1%	-0.4	11
1933-02-12	Athletic Bilbao	W 4-2	1685	1742	64.4%	13.8%	21.8%	+1.2	11
1933-02-12	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-4	1742	1685	21.8%	13.8%	64.4%	-1.2	24
1933-02-12	Valencia	W 4-2	1719	1619	78.6%	10.6%	10.7%	+0.6	22
1933-02-12	@ Barcelona	L 2-4	1619	1719	10.7%	10.6%	78.6%	-0.6	12
1933-02-12	Espanol	W 3-1	1699	1707	69.4%	13.1%	17.6%	+1.1	13
1933-02-12	@ Racing Santander	L 1-3	1707	1699	17.6%	13.1%	69.4%	-1.1	26
1933-02-12	Alaves	W 2-0	1734	1647	77.6%	11.0%	11.4%	+0.8	31
1933-02-12	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1647	1734	11.4%	11.0%	77.6%	-0.8	9
1933-02-12	Real Betis	D 2-2	1685	1538	82.0%	9.4%	8.6%	-0.5	11
1933-02-12	@ Donostia FC	D 2-2	1538	1685	8.6%	9.4%	82.0%	+0.4	12
1933-02-19	Barcelona	W 5-1	1686	1720	66.9%	13.5%	19.6%	+2.2	14
1933-02-19	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-5	1720	1686	19.6%	13.5%	66.9%	-2.2	22
1933-02-19	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-5	1706	1741	66.7%	13.5%	19.8%	-4.4	26
1933-02-19	@ Espanol	W 5-2	1741	1706	19.8%	13.5%	66.7%	+4.4	27
1933-02-19	Madrid CF	D 0-0	1538	1734	47.3%	14.3%	38.4%	-0.1	13
1933-02-19	@ Real Betis	D 0-0	1734	1538	38.4%	14.3%	47.3%	+0.1	32
1933-02-19	Racing Santander	W 6-2	1618	1700	61.7%	14.1%	24.2%	+2.2	15
1933-02-19	@ Valencia	L 2-6	1700	1618	24.2%	14.1%	61.7%	-2.2	13
1933-02-26	Alaves	W 4-0	1746	1646	78.6%	10.6%	10.8%	+1.4	30
1933-02-26	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1646	1746	10.8%	10.6%	78.6%	-1.4	9
1933-02-26	Real Betis	W 4-1	1717	1538	84.1%	8.5%	7.4%	+0.6	25
1933-02-26	@ Barcelona	L 1-4	1538	1717	7.4%	8.5%	84.1%	-0.6	13
1933-02-26	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1698	1688	71.1%	12.7%	16.2%	+0.6	16
1933-02-26	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1688	1698	16.2%	12.7%	71.1%	-0.6	14
1933-02-26	Espanol	W 6-1	1685	1702	68.5%	13.2%	18.2%	+2.5	14
1933-02-26	@ Donostia FC	L 1-6	1702	1685	18.2%	13.2%	68.5%	-2.5	26
1933-02-26	Madrid CF	L 0-1	1621	1735	58.0%	14.3%	27.7%	-1.9	15
1933-02-26	@ Valencia	W 1-0	1735	1621	27.7%	14.3%	58.0%	+1.9	35
1933-02-28	Donostia FC	W 1-0	1645	1687	65.9%	13.6%	20.4%	+0.8	12
1933-02-28	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1687	1645	20.4%	13.6%	65.9%	-0.8	14
1933-03-05	Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1645	1688	66.0%	13.6%	20.4%	-0.4	13
1933-03-05	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1688	1645	20.4%	13.6%	66.0%	+0.4	15
1933-03-05	Donostia FC	L 1-2	1747	1687	75.5%	11.6%	12.9%	-2.3	30
1933-03-05	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1687	1747	12.9%	11.6%	75.5%	+2.3	17
1933-03-05	Valencia	W 5-2	1699	1619	77.1%	11.1%	11.7%	+0.9	29
1933-03-05	@ Espanol	L 2-5	1619	1699	11.7%	11.1%	77.1%	-0.9	15
1933-03-05	Racing Santander	W 3-2	1537	1698	52.0%	14.4%	33.6%	+1.1	16
1933-03-05	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1698	1537	33.6%	14.4%	52.0%	-1.1	16
1933-03-05	Barcelona	W 2-1	1736	1718	71.9%	12.5%	15.6%	+0.5	38
1933-03-05	@ Madrid CF	L 1-2	1718	1736	15.6%	12.5%	71.9%	-0.5	25
1933-03-12	Espanol	W 1-0	1645	1700	64.6%	13.8%	21.6%	+0.8	16
1933-03-12	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1700	1645	21.6%	13.8%	64.6%	-0.8	29
1933-03-12	Real Betis	D 3-3	1688	1538	82.2%	9.3%	8.5%	-0.4	16
1933-03-12	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 3-3	1538	1688	8.5%	9.3%	82.2%	+0.4	17
1933-03-12	Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1717	1745	67.5%	13.4%	19.1%	-2.0	25
1933-03-12	@ Barcelona	W 3-2	1745	1717	19.1%	13.4%	67.5%	+2.0	33
1933-03-12	Madrid CF	W 4-2	1697	1737	66.3%	13.6%	20.2%	+1.1	19
1933-03-12	@ Racing Santander	L 2-4	1737	1697	20.2%	13.6%	66.3%	-1.1	38
1933-03-12	Donostia FC	D 2-2	1618	1689	62.9%	14.0%	23.1%	-0.2	16
1933-03-12	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1689	1618	23.1%	14.0%	62.9%	+0.2	18
1933-03-19	Valencia	W 8-2	1747	1618	80.8%	9.9%	9.4%	+1.2	36
1933-03-19	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-8	1618	1747	9.4%	9.9%	80.8%	-1.2	16
1933-03-19	Barcelona	W 2-1	1699	1715	68.6%	13.2%	18.2%	+0.6	32
1933-03-19	@ Espanol	L 1-2	1715	1699	18.2%	13.2%	68.6%	-0.6	25
1933-03-19	Alaves	W 3-1	1539	1646	58.8%	14.3%	27.0%	+1.6	20
1933-03-19	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1646	1539	27.0%	14.3%	58.8%	-1.6	16
1933-03-19	Arenas de Getxo	W 8-2	1736	1688	74.5%	11.9%	13.6%	+1.8	41
1933-03-19	@ Madrid CF	L 2-8	1688	1736	13.6%	11.9%	74.5%	-1.8	16
1933-03-19	Racing Santander	W 8-0	1689	1698	69.3%	13.1%	17.6%	+4.5	21
1933-03-19	@ Donostia FC	L 0-8	1698	1689	17.6%	13.1%	69.3%	-4.5	19
1933-03-26	Valencia	D 1-1	1644	1616	72.7%	12.3%	14.9%	-0.5	17
1933-03-26	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1616	1644	14.9%	12.3%	72.7%	+0.5	17
1933-03-26	Donostia FC	W 6-0	1686	1694	69.4%	13.1%	17.5%	+3.4	19
1933-03-26	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-6	1694	1686	17.5%	13.1%	69.4%	-3.4	21
1933-03-26	Barcelona	D 4-4	1694	1715	68.2%	13.3%	18.6%	-0.2	20
1933-03-26	@ Racing Santander	D 4-4	1715	1694	18.6%	13.3%	68.2%	+0.2	26
1933-03-26	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-1	1738	1748	69.2%	13.1%	17.7%	-2.3	41
1933-03-26	@ Madrid CF	W 1-0	1748	1738	17.7%	13.1%	69.2%	+2.3	39
1933-03-28	Real Betis	L 1-2	1700	1540	82.8%	9.0%	8.1%	-2.5	32
1933-03-28	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1540	1700	8.1%	9.0%	82.8%	+2.5	23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-03-28	8.13%	Real Betis	1540	2	@ Espanol	1700	1
2	1933-03-05	12.87%	Donostia FC	1687	2	@ Athletic Bilbao	1747	1
3	1932-12-18	14.25%	Espanol	1698	2	@ Athletic Bilbao	1737	0
4	1933-01-08	15.10%	Barcelona	1714	3	@ Athletic Bilbao	1739	1
5	1933-01-22	15.82%	Madrid CF	1726	2	@ Athletic Bilbao	1741	0
6	1932-12-04	16.64%	Espanol	1693	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1697	0
7	1933-03-26	17.71%	Athletic Bilbao	1748	1	@ Madrid CF	1738	0
8	1933-01-17	19.03%	Madrid CF	1719	5	@ Arenas de Getxo	1693	1
9	1933-03-12	19.11%	Athletic Bilbao	1745	3	@ Barcelona	1717	2
10	1932-12-04	19.64%	Athletic Bilbao	1734	1	@ Racing Santander	1700	0
11	1933-02-19	19.77%	Athletic Bilbao	1741	5	@ Espanol	1706	2
12	1933-01-01	20.55%	Athletic Bilbao	1736	4	@ Donostia FC	1692	2
13	1933-02-05	20.58%	Madrid CF	1732	2	@ Donostia FC	1687	1
14	1932-12-11	21.37%	Madrid CF	1713	1	@ Alaves	1660	0
15	1932-12-25	23.54%	Athletic Bilbao	1732	2	@ Alaves	1657	0
16	1933-01-15	27.60%	Athletic Bilbao	1735	5	@ Valencia	1623	1
17	1933-02-26	27.74%	Madrid CF	1735	1	@ Valencia	1621	0
18	1933-01-22	33.66%	Espanol	1706	2	@ Real Betis	1545	1
19	1933-01-29	38.04%	Athletic Bilbao	1737	5	@ Real Betis	1543	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1933-01-17	6.70	Madrid CF	5	1719	19.03%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1693	67.61%
2	1933-01-15	5.81	Athletic Bilbao	5	1735	27.60%	@ Valencia	1	1623	58.09%
3	1933-01-29	4.83	Athletic Bilbao	5	1737	38.04%	@ Real Betis	1	1543	47.66%
4	1932-12-18	4.58	Espanol	2	1698	14.25%	@ Athletic Bilbao	0	1737	73.64%
5	1933-03-19	4.50	@ Donostia FC	8	1689	69.30%	Racing Santander	0	1698	17.63%
6	1933-01-22	4.46	Madrid CF	2	1726	15.82%	@ Athletic Bilbao	0	1741	71.57%
7	1933-02-19	4.44	Athletic Bilbao	5	1741	19.77%	@ Espanol	2	1706	66.73%
8	1932-12-04	4.41	Espanol	2	1693	16.64%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1697	70.53%
9	1932-12-25	3.93	Athletic Bilbao	2	1732	23.54%	@ Alaves	0	1657	62.45%
10	1933-01-08	3.91	Barcelona	3	1714	15.10%	@ Athletic Bilbao	1	1739	72.51%
11	1933-01-29	3.90	@ Racing Santander	9	1696	74.34%	Alaves	0	1650	13.73%
12	1933-03-26	3.41	@ Arenas de Getxo	6	1686	69.43%	Donostia FC	0	1694	17.53%
13	1933-01-01	3.20	Athletic Bilbao	4	1736	20.55%	@ Donostia FC	2	1692	65.83%
14	1932-11-27	2.73	@ Alaves	8	1658	65.74%	Racing Santander	2	1703	20.62%
15	1933-01-17	2.64	@ Racing Santander	7	1696	70.72%	Donostia FC	1	1690	16.49%
16	1933-03-28	2.51	Real Betis	2	1540	8.13%	@ Espanol	1	1700	82.83%
17	1933-02-26	2.47	@ Donostia FC	6	1685	68.55%	Espanol	1	1702	18.24%
18	1933-03-05	2.34	Donostia FC	2	1687	12.87%	@ Athletic Bilbao	1	1747	75.53%
19	1933-03-26	2.30	Athletic Bilbao	1	1748	17.71%	@ Madrid CF	0	1738	69.20%
20	1933-02-19	2.25	@ Valencia	6	1618	61.71%	Racing Santander	2	1700	24.21%
21	1932-12-04	2.23	Athletic Bilbao	1	1734	19.64%	@ Racing Santander	0	1700	66.89%
22	1933-02-19	2.17	@ Arenas de Getxo	5	1686	66.89%	Barcelona	1	1720	19.64%
23	1932-12-11	2.16	Madrid CF	1	1713	21.37%	@ Alaves	0	1660	64.88%
24	1932-12-25	2.15	@ Madrid CF	6	1716	77.84%	Valencia	0	1626	11.27%
25	1933-02-05	2.07	Madrid CF	2	1732	20.58%	@ Donostia FC	1	1687	65.79%