1933-34 La Liga Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

24 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1930-31

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Athletic Bilbao

4.73 points above expected

24 points · 19.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arenas de Getxo

7.93 points below expected

10 points · 17.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	18	11	2	5	24	61	27	+34	19.3	+4.73
2	Madrid CF	18	10	2	6	22	41	29	+12	18.8	+3.18
3	Racing Santander	18	9	1	8	19	38	39	-1	18.3	+0.68
4	Real Betis	18	9	1	8	19	29	36	-7	16.8	+2.25
5	Real Oviedo	18	8	2	8	18	51	45	+6	16.4	+1.63
6	Donostia FC	18	7	4	7	18	29	33	-4	18.3	-0.28
7	Espanol	18	7	3	8	17	41	42	-1	18.2	-1.17
8	Valencia	18	7	3	8	17	28	38	-10	17.6	-0.61
9	Barcelona	18	8	0	10	16	42	40	+2	18.5	-2.48
10	Arenas de Getxo	18	3	4	11	10	18	49	-31	17.9	-7.93

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1783	24	19.27	+4.73	100.0%	14	16	18	19	21	22	24
Madrid CF	1770	22	18.82	+3.18	95.0%	13	15	17	19	20	22	25
Barcelona	1745	16	18.48	-2.48	18.0%	11	14	17	18	20	22	24
Racing Santander	1738	19	18.32	+0.68	71.0%	12	14	17	18	20	22	25
Espanol	1733	17	18.17	-1.17	37.0%	12	14	16	18	20	22	25
Donostia FC	1728	18	18.28	-0.28	54.0%	14	15	17	18	20	21	23
Arenas de Getxo	1720	10	17.93	-7.93	0.0%	11	14	16	18	19	22	25
Valencia	1690	17	17.61	-0.61	51.0%	12	14	16	17	19	22	23
Real Betis	1642	19	16.75	+2.25	90.0%	9	13	15	17	18	21	22
Real Oviedo	1624	18	16.37	+1.63	82.0%	9	11	15	17	18	20	23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADG	AB	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RB	RO	VAL
Arenas de Getxo	—	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.92	0-0-2 2.92	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.92	0-0-2 3.13	0-1-1 3.17	0-1-1 3.01
Athletic Bilbao	1-0-1 3.03	—	1-0-1 3.00	1-0-1 3.02	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 3.01	2-0-0 3.22	1-1-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.10
Barcelona	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.86	—	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.95	0-0-2 2.89	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 3.22	1-0-1 3.05
Donostia FC	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.90	—	0-1-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.88	1-1-0 2.92	1-1-0 3.13	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 3.02
Espanol	2-0-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.85	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.93	—	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 3.19	0-1-1 3.02
Madrid CF	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.91	2-0-0 2.97	2-0-0 2.98	1-1-0 3.00	—	1-0-1 2.99	0-0-2 3.21	1-0-1 3.25	1-0-1 3.08
Racing Santander	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.87	—	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 3.19	2-0-0 3.03
Real Betis	2-0-0 2.73	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.73	2-0-0 2.65	1-0-1 2.72	—	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.82
Real Oviedo	1-1-0 2.70	0-1-1 2.59	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.89	—	1-0-1 2.78
Valencia	1-1-0 2.86	0-1-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 3.08	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	3.89%	16.67%
1	3.33%	3.33%	8.33%	6.11%	2.78%	2.22%	26.11%
2	3.33%	8.33%	4.44%	3.89%	0.56%	2.78%	23.33%
3	1.67%	6.11%	3.89%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	16.67%
4	2.22%	2.78%	0.56%	1.67%	—	—	7.22%
5+	3.89%	2.22%	2.78%	1.11%	—	—	10.00%
Total	16.67%	26.11%	23.33%	16.67%	7.22%	10.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.10
Mean allowed	2.10
StdDev scored	1.72
StdDev allowed	1.72
Mean total goals/game	4.20
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.001
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Arenas de Getxo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	2.72
StdDev scored	1.03
StdDev allowed	2.54
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.180
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Athletic Bilbao — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.39
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	2.52
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	4.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.674
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Barcelona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	2.03
StdDev allowed	1.99
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.253
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Donostia FC — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	1.38
Mean total goals/game	3.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.388
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Espanol — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.81
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.596
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Madrid CF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.23
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.166
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	44.44%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

Racing Santander — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.095
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Real Betis — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	0.98
StdDev allowed	1.71
Mean total goals/game	3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.175
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Real Oviedo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.83
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	2.20
StdDev allowed	1.76
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.327
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	50.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	—	16.67%	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	2.05
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.128
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	24	19.3	+4.73
2	Madrid CF	22	18.8	+3.18
3	Real Betis	19	16.8	+2.25
4	Real Oviedo	18	16.4	+1.63
5	Racing Santander	19	18.3	+0.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Arenas de Getxo	10	17.9	-7.93
2	Barcelona	16	18.5	-2.48
3	Espanol	17	18.2	-1.17
4	Valencia	17	17.6	-0.61
5	Donostia FC	18	18.3	-0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 153
2	Real Betis	3	Feb 4 – Feb 18	1 in 39
3	Madrid CF	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 22
4	Racing Santander	3	Dec 24 – Jan 7	1 in 17
5	Real Oviedo	2	Feb 18 – Feb 22	69%

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	4	Feb 4 – Feb 25	1 in 560
2	Madrid CF	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 45
3	Barcelona	3	Nov 18 – Dec 3	1 in 20
4	Donostia FC	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 19
5	Espanol	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 19

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Donostia FC	8	Nov 26 – Jan 14	1 in 447
2	Madrid CF	5	Nov 5 – Dec 3	1 in 61
3	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 39
4	Real Oviedo	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 14
5	Real Betis	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 13

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	7	Dec 10 – Jan 21	1 in 911
2	Donostia FC	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 67
3	Real Betis	4	Dec 24 – Jan 14	1 in 32
4	Madrid CF	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 13
5	Racing Santander	3	Dec 3 – Dec 17	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Athletic Bilbao	21.00%	21.00%	16.00%	9.00%	12.00%	8.00%	5.00%	3.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Madrid CF	20.00%	11.00%	15.00%	16.00%	8.00%	4.00%	13.00%	5.00%	5.00%	3.00%
Racing Santander	14.00%	10.00%	7.00%	10.00%	11.00%	14.00%	9.00%	9.00%	10.00%	6.00%
Real Betis	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	1.00%	14.00%	11.00%	8.00%	16.00%	21.00%	18.00%
Real Oviedo	3.00%	5.00%	3.00%	15.00%	11.00%	8.00%	7.00%	16.00%	10.00%	22.00%
Donostia FC	6.00%	9.00%	13.00%	15.00%	11.00%	7.00%	13.00%	9.00%	7.00%	10.00%
Espanol	9.00%	11.00%	12.00%	7.00%	12.00%	14.00%	11.00%	11.00%	7.00%	6.00%
Valencia	7.00%	7.00%	4.00%	11.00%	5.00%	10.00%	13.00%	13.00%	22.00%	8.00%
Barcelona	10.00%	17.00%	14.00%	11.00%	7.00%	10.00%	9.00%	5.00%	7.00%	10.00%
Arenas de Getxo	8.00%	6.00%	10.00%	5.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	8.00%	15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Arenas de Getxo	100%
Athletic Bilbao	100%
Barcelona	100%
Donostia FC	100%
Espanol	100%
Madrid CF	100%
Racing Santander	100%
Real Betis	100%
Real Oviedo	100%
Valencia	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1933-11-05	Madrid CF	D 3-3	1735	1761	85.9%	7.0%	7.0%	-0.4	1
1933-11-05	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 3-3	1761	1735	7.0%	7.0%	85.9%	+0.4	1
1933-11-05	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1738	1735	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	+0.7	3
1933-11-05	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1735	1738	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	-0.8	0
1933-11-05	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1640	1737	82.5%	7.4%	10.1%	+0.3	3
1933-11-05	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1737	1640	10.1%	7.4%	82.5%	-0.3	0
1933-11-05	Barcelona	W 7-3	1618	1749	80.5%	7.5%	12.0%	+1.0	3
1933-11-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-7	1749	1618	12.0%	7.5%	80.5%	-1.0	0
1933-11-05	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1692	1769	83.5%	7.3%	9.2%	-0.4	1
1933-11-05	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1769	1692	9.2%	7.3%	83.5%	+0.5	1
1933-11-12	Real Betis	W 5-0	1770	1641	90.9%	6.1%	3.1%	+0.5	4
1933-11-12	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-5	1641	1770	3.1%	6.1%	90.9%	-0.5	3
1933-11-12	Espanol	W 5-0	1748	1738	87.3%	6.9%	5.8%	+0.9	3
1933-11-12	@ Barcelona	L 0-5	1738	1748	5.8%	6.9%	87.3%	-0.9	3
1933-11-12	Real Oviedo	W 4-3	1737	1619	90.6%	6.1%	3.3%	+0.1	3
1933-11-12	@ Racing Santander	L 3-4	1619	1737	3.3%	6.1%	90.6%	-0.1	3
1933-11-12	Valencia	W 3-2	1761	1691	89.3%	6.5%	4.2%	+0.1	4
1933-11-12	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1691	1761	4.2%	6.5%	89.3%	-0.1	1
1933-11-12	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1734	1734	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.5	3
1933-11-12	@ Donostia FC	L 1-4	1734	1734	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.5	1
1933-11-18	Barcelona	W 3-1	1734	1749	86.4%	7.0%	6.6%	+0.4	4
1933-11-18	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1749	1734	6.6%	7.0%	86.4%	-0.4	3
1933-11-18	Racing Santander	W 5-0	1738	1737	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.9	6
1933-11-18	@ Espanol	L 0-5	1737	1738	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.9	3
1933-11-18	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1761	1735	87.9%	6.8%	5.3%	+0.3	7
1933-11-18	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1735	1761	5.3%	6.8%	87.9%	-0.3	3
1933-11-18	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1619	1770	79.1%	7.6%	13.3%	-0.4	4
1933-11-18	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1770	1619	13.3%	7.6%	79.1%	+0.4	5
1933-11-18	Real Betis	W 2-1	1691	1640	88.7%	6.6%	4.7%	+0.2	4
1933-11-18	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1640	1691	4.7%	6.6%	88.7%	-0.1	3
1933-11-26	Espanol	W 5-0	1771	1738	88.1%	6.7%	5.2%	+0.8	8
1933-11-26	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-5	1738	1771	5.2%	6.7%	88.1%	-0.8	6
1933-11-26	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1748	1762	86.5%	7.0%	6.6%	-2.6	3
1933-11-26	@ Barcelona	W 2-1	1762	1748	6.6%	7.0%	86.5%	+2.6	10
1933-11-26	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1736	1734	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.5	6
1933-11-26	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1734	1736	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.5	4
1933-11-26	Real Oviedo	W 4-2	1640	1619	87.8%	6.8%	5.5%	+0.3	6
1933-11-26	@ Real Betis	L 2-4	1619	1640	5.5%	6.8%	87.8%	-0.3	4
1933-11-26	Valencia	W 3-1	1734	1691	88.5%	6.6%	4.9%	+0.3	6
1933-11-26	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1691	1734	4.9%	6.6%	88.5%	-0.3	4
1933-12-03	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1734	1771	85.4%	7.1%	7.5%	+0.5	7
1933-12-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-2	1771	1734	7.5%	7.1%	85.4%	-0.5	8
1933-12-03	Real Betis	W 3-1	1738	1640	90.1%	6.3%	3.6%	+0.2	9
1933-12-03	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1640	1738	3.6%	6.3%	90.1%	-0.2	6
1933-12-03	Racing Santander	W 1-0	1764	1736	88.0%	6.7%	5.3%	+0.2	13
1933-12-03	@ Madrid CF	L 0-1	1736	1764	5.3%	6.7%	88.0%	-0.2	6
1933-12-03	Barcelona	W 2-0	1735	1746	86.5%	7.0%	6.5%	+0.4	9
1933-12-03	@ Donostia FC	L 0-2	1746	1735	6.5%	7.0%	86.5%	-0.4	3
1933-12-03	Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1691	1618	89.4%	6.5%	4.2%	+0.1	7
1933-12-03	@ Valencia	L 0-1	1618	1691	4.2%	6.5%	89.4%	-0.1	4
1933-12-10	Madrid CF	W 5-1	1771	1765	87.2%	6.9%	5.9%	+0.6	11
1933-12-10	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1765	1771	5.9%	6.9%	87.2%	-0.6	13
1933-12-10	Valencia	W 5-2	1745	1691	88.8%	6.6%	4.6%	+0.3	6
1933-12-10	@ Barcelona	L 2-5	1691	1745	4.6%	6.6%	88.8%	-0.3	7
1933-12-10	Donostia FC	D 1-1	1736	1735	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	-0.7	7
1933-12-10	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1735	1736	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	+0.7	10
1933-12-10	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1640	1734	82.6%	7.4%	10.0%	+0.7	9
1933-12-10	@ Real Betis	L 0-2	1734	1640	10.0%	7.4%	82.6%	-0.7	7
1933-12-10	Espanol	W 3-1	1618	1738	81.1%	7.5%	11.4%	+0.6	7
1933-12-10	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1738	1618	11.4%	7.5%	81.1%	-0.6	9
1933-12-17	Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1734	1619	90.5%	6.2%	3.3%	-0.7	8
1933-12-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1619	1734	3.3%	6.2%	90.5%	+0.7	8
1933-12-17	Racing Santander	W 6-3	1746	1735	87.4%	6.8%	5.8%	+0.4	9
1933-12-17	@ Barcelona	L 3-6	1735	1746	5.8%	6.8%	87.4%	-0.4	7
1933-12-17	Real Betis	L 0-1	1764	1641	90.7%	6.1%	3.2%	-2.9	13
1933-12-17	@ Madrid CF	W 1-0	1641	1764	3.2%	6.1%	90.7%	+2.9	12
1933-12-17	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1736	1772	85.5%	7.1%	7.4%	+0.7	13
1933-12-17	@ Donostia FC	L 0-3	1772	1736	7.4%	7.1%	85.5%	-0.7	11
1933-12-17	Espanol	W 1-0	1691	1737	85.0%	7.2%	7.8%	+0.3	10
1933-12-17	@ Valencia	L 0-1	1737	1691	7.8%	7.2%	85.0%	-0.3	9
1933-12-24	Barcelona	W 6-1	1771	1746	87.9%	6.8%	5.4%	+0.7	14
1933-12-24	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-6	1746	1771	5.4%	6.8%	87.9%	-0.7	9
1933-12-24	Arenas de Getxo	W 6-2	1737	1733	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	+0.5	12
1933-12-24	@ Espanol	L 2-6	1733	1737	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	-0.5	8
1933-12-24	Donostia FC	D 1-1	1644	1736	82.7%	7.4%	9.9%	-0.6	13
1933-12-24	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1736	1644	9.9%	7.4%	82.7%	+0.6	14
1933-12-24	Madrid CF	W 3-2	1620	1761	79.8%	7.6%	12.7%	+0.4	11
1933-12-24	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1761	1620	12.7%	7.6%	79.8%	-0.4	13
1933-12-24	Racing Santander	L 1-2	1691	1735	85.1%	7.1%	7.7%	-2.6	10
1933-12-24	@ Valencia	W 2-1	1735	1691	7.7%	7.1%	85.1%	+2.6	10
1933-12-31	Valencia	L 1-2	1732	1688	88.5%	6.6%	4.9%	-2.7	8
1933-12-31	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1688	1732	4.9%	6.6%	88.5%	+2.7	13
1933-12-31	Real Betis	W 5-1	1745	1643	90.2%	6.2%	3.5%	+0.4	12
1933-12-31	@ Barcelona	L 1-5	1643	1745	3.5%	6.2%	90.2%	-0.4	13
1933-12-31	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1738	1772	85.6%	7.1%	7.3%	+0.2	13
1933-12-31	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1772	1738	7.3%	7.1%	85.6%	-0.2	14
1933-12-31	Espanol	W 3-2	1761	1738	87.8%	6.8%	5.4%	+0.2	16
1933-12-31	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1738	1761	5.4%	6.8%	87.8%	-0.2	12
1933-12-31	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1737	1620	90.6%	6.2%	3.3%	+0.2	17
1933-12-31	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1620	1737	3.3%	6.2%	90.6%	-0.2	11
1934-01-07	Valencia	W 6-2	1771	1691	89.6%	6.4%	4.0%	+0.4	17
1934-01-07	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-6	1691	1771	4.0%	6.4%	89.6%	-0.3	13
1934-01-07	Real Oviedo	W 2-0	1746	1620	90.8%	6.1%	3.1%	+0.2	15
1934-01-07	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1620	1746	3.1%	6.1%	90.8%	-0.2	11
1934-01-07	Real Betis	W 4-1	1738	1643	90.0%	6.3%	3.7%	+0.3	16
1934-01-07	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1643	1738	3.7%	6.3%	90.0%	-0.3	13
1934-01-07	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1761	1730	88.1%	6.7%	5.2%	+0.2	19
1934-01-07	@ Madrid CF	L 1-2	1730	1761	5.2%	6.7%	88.1%	-0.2	8
1934-01-07	Espanol	D 3-3	1737	1737	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	-0.4	18
1934-01-07	@ Donostia FC	D 3-3	1737	1737	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	+0.4	13
1934-01-13	Barcelona	W 3-2	1738	1746	86.7%	7.0%	6.4%	+0.2	16
1934-01-13	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1746	1738	6.4%	7.0%	86.7%	-0.2	15
1934-01-14	Donostia FC	D 0-0	1729	1737	86.7%	7.0%	6.4%	-0.7	9
1934-01-14	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1737	1729	6.4%	7.0%	86.7%	+0.7	19
1934-01-14	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1643	1772	80.5%	7.5%	11.9%	-4.2	13
1934-01-14	@ Real Betis	W 3-1	1772	1643	11.9%	7.5%	80.5%	+4.2	20
1934-01-14	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1620	1738	81.2%	7.5%	11.3%	+0.6	14
1934-01-14	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1738	1620	11.3%	7.5%	81.2%	-0.6	16
1934-01-14	Madrid CF	W 2-1	1691	1761	83.9%	7.3%	8.8%	+0.3	16
1934-01-14	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1761	1691	8.8%	7.3%	83.9%	-0.3	19
1934-01-21	Real Oviedo	W 6-2	1776	1620	91.5%	5.9%	2.6%	+0.2	23
1934-01-21	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-6	1620	1776	2.6%	5.9%	91.5%	-0.2	14
1934-01-21	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1746	1729	87.6%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.7	18
1934-01-21	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1729	1746	5.6%	6.8%	87.6%	-0.7	9
1934-01-21	Espanol	W 3-1	1737	1738	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.3	19
1934-01-21	@ Racing Santander	L 1-3	1738	1737	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.3	16
1934-01-21	Valencia	W 2-1	1638	1691	84.7%	7.2%	8.1%	+0.3	16
1934-01-21	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1691	1638	8.1%	7.2%	84.7%	-0.3	16
1934-01-21	Madrid CF	L 0-3	1737	1761	86.0%	7.0%	6.9%	-7.6	19
1934-01-21	@ Donostia FC	W 3-0	1761	1737	6.9%	7.0%	86.0%	+7.6	22
1934-01-28	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1728	1738	86.6%	7.0%	6.5%	+0.2	12
1934-01-28	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1738	1728	6.5%	7.0%	86.6%	-0.2	19
1934-01-28	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1738	1776	85.4%	7.1%	7.5%	-6.3	16
1934-01-28	@ Espanol	W 4-1	1776	1738	7.5%	7.1%	85.4%	+6.3	26
1934-01-28	Barcelona	W 4-0	1768	1746	87.8%	6.8%	5.5%	+0.7	25
1934-01-28	@ Madrid CF	L 0-4	1746	1768	5.5%	6.8%	87.8%	-0.7	18
1934-01-28	Real Betis	W 4-3	1620	1639	86.2%	7.0%	6.8%	+0.2	17
1934-01-28	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-4	1639	1620	6.8%	7.0%	86.2%	-0.2	16
1934-01-28	Donostia FC	W 4-1	1691	1730	85.4%	7.1%	7.5%	+0.6	19
1934-01-28	@ Valencia	L 1-4	1730	1691	7.5%	7.1%	85.4%	-0.6	19
1934-02-04	Arenas de Getxo	W 9-0	1782	1728	88.8%	6.6%	4.6%	+1.2	29
1934-02-04	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-9	1728	1782	4.6%	6.6%	88.8%	-1.2	12
1934-02-04	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1746	1729	87.6%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.7	21
1934-02-04	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1729	1746	5.6%	6.8%	87.6%	-0.7	19
1934-02-04	Madrid CF	W 4-3	1738	1769	85.7%	7.1%	7.2%	+0.2	22
1934-02-04	@ Racing Santander	L 3-4	1769	1738	7.2%	7.1%	85.7%	-0.2	25
1934-02-04	Espanol	W 3-1	1638	1731	82.7%	7.4%	9.9%	+0.6	19
1934-02-04	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1731	1638	9.9%	7.4%	82.7%	-0.6	16
1934-02-11	Real Betis	L 0-1	1727	1639	89.8%	6.3%	3.8%	-2.9	12
1934-02-11	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1639	1727	3.8%	6.3%	89.8%	+2.9	22
1934-02-11	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1731	1620	90.4%	6.2%	3.4%	+0.2	19
1934-02-11	@ Espanol	L 2-5	1620	1731	3.4%	6.2%	90.4%	-0.2	17
1934-02-11	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1769	1784	86.4%	7.0%	6.6%	+0.6	28
1934-02-11	@ Madrid CF	L 0-3	1784	1769	6.6%	7.0%	86.4%	-0.6	29
1934-02-11	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1729	1738	86.6%	7.0%	6.4%	+0.2	22
1934-02-11	@ Donostia FC	L 1-2	1738	1729	6.4%	7.0%	86.6%	-0.2	22
1934-02-11	Barcelona	W 2-0	1691	1746	84.6%	7.2%	8.2%	+0.5	22
1934-02-11	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1746	1691	8.2%	7.2%	84.6%	-0.5	21
1934-02-18	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1783	1729	88.8%	6.6%	4.6%	+0.2	32
1934-02-18	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1729	1783	4.6%	6.6%	88.8%	-0.1	22
1934-02-18	Valencia	D 2-2	1731	1692	88.3%	6.7%	5.0%	-0.5	20
1934-02-18	@ Espanol	D 2-2	1692	1731	5.0%	6.7%	88.3%	+0.5	23
1934-02-18	Barcelona	W 3-1	1738	1746	86.6%	7.0%	6.4%	+0.4	25
1934-02-18	@ Racing Santander	L 1-3	1746	1738	6.4%	7.0%	86.6%	-0.4	21
1934-02-18	Madrid CF	W 2-1	1642	1769	80.7%	7.5%	11.8%	+0.4	25
1934-02-18	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1769	1642	11.8%	7.5%	80.7%	-0.4	28
1934-02-18	Arenas de Getxo	W 7-0	1620	1724	82.1%	7.4%	10.5%	+2.2	20
1934-02-18	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-7	1724	1620	10.5%	7.4%	82.1%	-2.2	12
1934-02-22	Valencia	W 7-0	1622	1692	83.9%	7.3%	8.8%	+1.8	23
1934-02-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-7	1692	1622	8.8%	7.3%	83.9%	-1.9	23
1934-02-25	Espanol	L 1-2	1722	1730	86.6%	7.0%	6.4%	-2.6	12
1934-02-25	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1730	1722	6.4%	7.0%	86.6%	+2.6	23
1934-02-25	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1746	1783	85.4%	7.1%	7.5%	+0.2	24
1934-02-25	@ Barcelona	L 1-2	1783	1746	7.5%	7.1%	85.4%	-0.2	32
1934-02-25	Valencia	W 2-1	1738	1691	88.6%	6.6%	4.8%	+0.1	28
1934-02-25	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1691	1738	4.8%	6.6%	88.6%	-0.1	23
1934-02-25	Real Oviedo	W 5-1	1769	1624	91.2%	5.9%	2.8%	+0.3	31
1934-02-25	@ Madrid CF	L 1-5	1624	1769	2.8%	5.9%	91.2%	-0.3	23
1934-02-25	Real Betis	W 3-2	1729	1642	89.8%	6.4%	3.9%	+0.1	25
1934-02-25	@ Donostia FC	L 2-3	1642	1729	3.9%	6.4%	89.8%	-0.1	25
1934-03-04	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1783	1738	88.5%	6.6%	4.8%	+0.3	35
1934-03-04	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1738	1783	4.8%	6.6%	88.5%	-0.3	28
1934-03-04	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1733	1769	85.5%	7.1%	7.4%	-0.5	24
1934-03-04	@ Espanol	D 2-2	1769	1733	7.4%	7.1%	85.5%	+0.5	32
1934-03-04	Barcelona	W 1-0	1642	1746	82.1%	7.4%	10.5%	+0.4	28
1934-03-04	@ Real Betis	L 0-1	1746	1642	10.5%	7.4%	82.1%	-0.4	24
1934-03-04	Donostia FC	W 3-2	1624	1729	82.0%	7.4%	10.6%	+0.3	26
1934-03-04	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1729	1624	10.6%	7.4%	82.0%	-0.3	25
1934-03-04	Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1690	1719	85.8%	7.1%	7.1%	-0.7	24
1934-03-04	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1719	1690	7.1%	7.1%	85.8%	+0.7	13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-12-17	3.17%	Real Betis	1641	1	@ Madrid CF	1764	0
2	1934-02-11	3.83%	Real Betis	1639	1	@ Arenas de Getxo	1727	0
3	1933-12-31	4.85%	Valencia	1688	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1732	1
4	1934-02-25	6.41%	Espanol	1730	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1722	1
5	1933-11-26	6.57%	Madrid CF	1762	2	@ Barcelona	1748	1
6	1934-01-21	6.93%	Madrid CF	1761	3	@ Donostia FC	1737	0
7	1934-01-28	7.50%	Athletic Bilbao	1776	4	@ Espanol	1738	1
8	1933-12-24	7.72%	Racing Santander	1735	2	@ Valencia	1691	1
9	1934-01-14	11.94%	Athletic Bilbao	1772	3	@ Real Betis	1643	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-01-21	7.56	Madrid CF	3	1761	6.93%	@ Donostia FC	0	1737	86.04%
2	1934-01-28	6.34	Athletic Bilbao	4	1776	7.50%	@ Espanol	1	1738	85.38%
3	1934-01-14	4.23	Athletic Bilbao	3	1772	11.94%	@ Real Betis	1	1643	80.55%
4	1933-12-17	2.90	Real Betis	1	1641	3.17%	@ Madrid CF	0	1764	90.73%
5	1934-02-11	2.87	Real Betis	1	1639	3.83%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1727	89.83%
6	1933-12-31	2.67	Valencia	2	1688	4.85%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1732	88.51%
7	1934-02-25	2.62	Espanol	2	1730	6.41%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1722	86.64%
8	1933-11-26	2.61	Madrid CF	2	1762	6.57%	@ Barcelona	1	1748	86.45%
9	1933-12-24	2.57	Racing Santander	2	1735	7.72%	@ Valencia	1	1691	85.14%
10	1934-02-18	2.21	@ Real Oviedo	7	1620	82.06%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1724	10.52%
11	1934-02-22	1.85	@ Real Oviedo	7	1622	83.89%	Valencia	0	1692	8.84%
12	1934-02-04	1.21	@ Athletic Bilbao	9	1782	88.84%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1728	4.59%
13	1933-11-05	0.96	@ Real Oviedo	7	1618	80.45%	Barcelona	3	1749	12.03%
14	1933-11-18	0.93	@ Espanol	5	1738	87.00%	Racing Santander	0	1737	6.10%
15	1933-11-12	0.89	@ Barcelona	5	1748	87.32%	Espanol	0	1738	5.83%
16	1933-11-26	0.78	@ Athletic Bilbao	5	1771	88.12%	Espanol	0	1738	5.16%
17	1933-11-05	0.75	@ Espanol	4	1738	87.08%	Donostia FC	0	1735	6.04%
18	1934-01-14	0.74	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1729	86.69%	Donostia FC	0	1737	6.37%
19	1934-03-04	0.73	@ Valencia	0	1690	85.80%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1719	7.13%
20	1933-12-17	0.72	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1734	90.52%	Real Oviedo	1	1619	3.32%
21	1933-12-17	0.70	@ Donostia FC	3	1736	85.50%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1772	7.40%
22	1934-01-21	0.69	@ Barcelona	4	1746	87.60%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1729	5.60%
23	1934-02-04	0.69	@ Barcelona	4	1746	87.58%	Donostia FC	0	1729	5.61%
24	1933-12-10	0.67	Donostia FC	1	1735	6.09%	@ Racing Santander	1	1736	87.01%
25	1934-01-28	0.67	@ Madrid CF	4	1768	87.77%	Barcelona	0	1746	5.46%