1929 Segunda División Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Iberia

3.92 points above expected

22 points · 18.08 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Celta Vigo

5.15 points below expected

13 points · 18.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sevilla	18	8	6	4	22	35	24	+11	18.3	+3.68
2	Iberia	18	9	4	5	22	33	27	+6	18.1	+3.92
3	Alaves	18	8	5	5	21	28	20	+8	17.9	+3.12
4	Sporting Gijon	18	7	5	6	19	41	35	+6	17.7	+1.26
5	Valencia	18	8	3	7	19	33	31	+2	18.4	+0.64
6	Real Betis	18	7	4	7	18	35	36	-1	18.3	-0.30
7	Real Oviedo	18	7	3	8	17	43	39	+4	17.8	-0.81
8	Deportivo La Coruna	18	6	4	8	16	27	37	-10	18.0	-1.99
9	Celta Vigo	18	4	5	9	13	29	38	-9	18.1	-5.15
10	Racing Club Madrid	18	6	1	11	13	31	48	-17	17.4	-4.37

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Iberia	1450	22	18.08	+3.92	94.0%	11	13	16	18	20	23	27
Alaves	1448	21	17.88	+3.12	88.0%	11	11	16	18	20	23	28
Sevilla	1448	22	18.32	+3.68	87.0%	10	12	16	18	21	23	29
Sporting Gijon	1444	19	17.74	+1.26	74.0%	8	13	15	18	20	24	29
Valencia	1443	19	18.36	+0.64	64.0%	10	13	16	18	20	23	27
Real Oviedo	1442	17	17.81	-0.81	49.0%	10	13	15	18	20	24	26
Real Betis	1440	18	18.30	-0.30	54.0%	7	11	17	18	21	24	25
Deportivo La Coruna	1436	16	17.99	-1.99	35.0%	8	12	15	18	21	23	26
Celta Vigo	1434	13	18.15	-5.15	6.0%	12	13	16	18	20	24	26
Racing Club Madrid	1427	13	17.37	-4.37	11.0%	11	12	15	17	20	23	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	CV	DLC	IBE	RCM	RB	RO	SEV	SG	VAL
Alaves	—	1-1-0 2.92	2-0-0 2.87	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.96	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.88	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.89
Celta Vigo	0-1-1 2.81	—	0-1-1 2.84	0-0-2 2.86	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.82	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.85
Deportivo La Coruna	0-0-2 2.86	1-1-0 2.89	—	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.87	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.85
Iberia	0-1-1 2.84	2-0-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.89	—	2-0-0 2.92	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.84	0-2-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.86
Racing Club Madrid	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 2.83	0-0-2 2.81	—	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.82
Real Betis	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.88	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.94	—	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.86
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.88	—	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.87	0-0-2 2.87
Sevilla	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.88	—	1-0-1 2.88	1-1-0 2.87
Sporting Gijon	0-1-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.85	0-2-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.85	—	1-1-0 2.85
Valencia	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.87	2-0-0 2.86	0-1-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.88	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	5.00%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	3.33%	15.56%
1	5.00%	12.22%	7.22%	6.11%	1.11%	0.56%	32.22%
2	2.22%	7.22%	5.56%	5.56%	2.22%	2.22%	25.00%
3	1.67%	6.11%	5.56%	2.22%	0.56%	—	16.11%
4	1.11%	1.11%	2.22%	0.56%	—	—	5.00%
5+	3.33%	0.56%	2.22%	—	—	—	6.11%
Total	15.56%	32.22%	25.00%	16.11%	5.00%	6.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.86
Mean allowed	1.86
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.033
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	55.56%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	50.00%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.11
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.02
Mean total goals/game	2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.171
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Celta Vigo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.45
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.357
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Deportivo La Coruna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.54
StdDev allowed	2.21
Mean total goals/game	3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.302
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Iberia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.04
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.128
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Racing Club Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.67
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.68
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.365
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Real Betis — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.80
StdDev allowed	1.53
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.299
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Real Oviedo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.46
StdDev allowed	1.25
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.263
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	44.44%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Sevilla — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.21
StdDev allowed	0.91
Mean total goals/game	3.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.232
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Sporting Gijon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	2.22
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.315
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.126
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Iberia	22	18.1	+3.92
2	Sevilla	22	18.3	+3.68
3	Alaves	21	17.9	+3.12
4	Sporting Gijon	19	17.7	+1.26
5	Valencia	19	18.4	+0.64

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Celta Vigo	13	18.1	-5.15
2	Racing Club Madrid	13	17.4	-4.37
3	Deportivo La Coruna	16	18.0	-1.99
4	Real Oviedo	17	17.8	-0.81
5	Real Betis	18	18.3	-0.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Iberia	3	May 5 – May 26	1 in 11
2	Alaves	3	Mar 24 – Apr 7	1 in 11
3	Deportivo La Coruna	2	Feb 10 – Feb 17	1 in 8
4	Sevilla	3	Apr 7 – Apr 28	1 in 3
5	Racing Club Madrid	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 2

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Club Madrid	4	Feb 10 – Mar 3	1 in 17
2	Celta Vigo	3	Mar 31 – Apr 21	1 in 11
3	Iberia	2	Feb 10 – Feb 17	1 in 8
4	Deportivo La Coruna	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 8
5	Valencia	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 2

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sevilla	10	Feb 10 – Apr 28	1 in 303
2	Alaves	5	Mar 3 – Apr 7	1 in 17
3	Iberia	4	Mar 10 – Apr 7	1 in 14
4	Sporting Gijon	4	Jun 2 – Jun 23	1 in 14
5	Celta Vigo	5	May 30 – Jun 23	1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Club Madrid	6	Feb 10 – Mar 24	1 in 21
2	Sporting Gijon	5	Feb 24 – Mar 31	1 in 18
3	Real Betis	5	Mar 3 – Apr 7	1 in 17
4	Alaves	4	Apr 21 – May 12	1 in 15
5	Celta Vigo	5	Mar 10 – Apr 21	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Sevilla	20.00%	13.00%	8.00%	9.00%	7.00%	11.00%	7.00%	10.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Iberia	9.00%	12.00%	7.00%	16.00%	12.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Alaves	5.00%	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	16.00%	11.00%	6.00%	12.00%	5.00%	12.00%
Sporting Gijon	11.00%	6.00%	9.00%	11.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	12.00%
Valencia	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%	8.00%	10.00%	12.00%	8.00%	15.00%	8.00%	5.00%
Real Betis	11.00%	11.00%	16.00%	7.00%	7.00%	11.00%	15.00%	4.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Real Oviedo	11.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	13.00%	9.00%	12.00%	10.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	11.00%	13.00%	9.00%	9.00%	3.00%	10.00%	10.00%	9.00%	12.00%	14.00%
Celta Vigo	6.00%	10.00%	8.00%	13.00%	17.00%	9.00%	7.00%	7.00%	14.00%	9.00%
Racing Club Madrid	5.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	15.00%	17.00%	11.00%	15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Won promotion playoff	Lost promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
Sevilla	6.0%	14.0%	65.0%	15.0%
Iberia	5.0%	4.0%	74.0%	17.0%
Valencia	1.0%	10.0%	76.0%	13.0%
Real Betis	3.0%	8.0%	71.0%	18.0%
Alaves	—	5.0%	78.0%	17.0%
Sporting Gijon	6.0%	5.0%	66.0%	23.0%
Real Oviedo	4.0%	7.0%	67.0%	22.0%
Celta Vigo	3.0%	3.0%	71.0%	23.0%
Deportivo La Coruna	4.0%	7.0%	63.0%	26.0%
Racing Club Madrid	1.0%	4.0%	69.0%	26.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1929-02-10	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+0.6	3
1929-02-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-1	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-0.6	0
1929-02-10	Alaves	L 1-2	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-1.8	0
1929-02-10	@ Iberia	W 2-1	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+1.8	3
1929-02-10	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+1.0	3
1929-02-10	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-1.0	0
1929-02-10	Racing Club Madrid	W 4-2	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+0.9	3
1929-02-10	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-4	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-0.9	0
1929-02-10	Sevilla	D 2-2	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-0.2	1
1929-02-10	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+0.2	1
1929-02-17	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1443	1442	67.5%	13.5%	19.0%	+1.0	6
1929-02-17	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1442	1443	19.0%	13.5%	67.5%	-1.0	3
1929-02-17	Valencia	W 2-1	1440	1441	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+0.6	3
1929-02-17	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1441	1440	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-0.6	1
1929-02-17	Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1440	1442	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-4.4	0
1929-02-17	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 4-1	1442	1440	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+4.4	6
1929-02-17	Iberia	W 3-1	1441	1439	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	+1.0	4
1929-02-17	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1439	1441	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	-1.0	0
1929-02-17	Real Betis	W 6-2	1441	1442	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+1.6	3
1929-02-17	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-6	1442	1441	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-1.5	3
1929-02-24	Sevilla	D 2-2	1446	1442	67.8%	13.5%	18.7%	-0.3	7
1929-02-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1442	1446	18.7%	13.5%	67.8%	+0.3	5
1929-02-24	Celta Vigo	W 1-0	1438	1441	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.6	3
1929-02-24	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1441	1438	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.6	3
1929-02-24	Alaves	W 3-2	1441	1444	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.5	6
1929-02-24	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1444	1441	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	-0.5	6
1929-02-24	Sporting Gijon	W 6-2	1441	1442	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+1.5	6
1929-02-24	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-6	1442	1441	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-1.5	3
1929-02-24	Racing Club Madrid	W 2-0	1440	1436	67.9%	13.5%	18.7%	+1.1	4
1929-02-24	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1436	1440	18.7%	13.5%	67.9%	-1.1	0
1929-03-03	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1443	1446	67.1%	13.6%	19.2%	+1.0	9
1929-03-03	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1446	1443	19.2%	13.6%	67.1%	-1.0	7
1929-03-03	Racing Club Madrid	W 6-0	1440	1435	68.0%	13.4%	18.6%	+3.1	6
1929-03-03	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-6	1435	1440	18.6%	13.4%	68.0%	-3.1	0
1929-03-03	Real Betis	W 3-1	1443	1441	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	+1.0	9
1929-03-03	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1441	1443	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	-1.0	6
1929-03-03	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1443	1441	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	+0.6	8
1929-03-03	@ Sevilla	L 0-1	1441	1443	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	-0.6	3
1929-03-03	Iberia	W 3-2	1442	1439	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+0.5	7
1929-03-03	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1439	1442	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-0.5	3
1929-03-10	Celta Vigo	W 4-2	1445	1443	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	+0.9	10
1929-03-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-4	1443	1445	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	-0.9	6
1929-03-10	Real Oviedo	W 2-0	1439	1444	66.9%	13.7%	19.5%	+1.2	6
1929-03-10	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1444	1439	19.5%	13.7%	66.9%	-1.2	9
1929-03-10	Sevilla	D 1-1	1432	1443	66.2%	13.8%	20.0%	-0.3	1
1929-03-10	@ Racing Club Madrid	D 1-1	1443	1432	20.0%	13.8%	66.2%	+0.3	9
1929-03-10	Valencia	D 1-1	1440	1442	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-0.3	7
1929-03-10	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1442	1440	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+0.3	8
1929-03-10	Alaves	D 1-1	1440	1444	66.9%	13.7%	19.4%	-0.3	4
1929-03-10	@ Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1444	1440	19.4%	13.7%	66.9%	+0.3	10
1929-03-24	Racing Club Madrid	W 1-0	1445	1431	68.8%	13.2%	18.0%	+0.6	13
1929-03-24	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1431	1445	18.0%	13.2%	68.8%	-0.6	1
1929-03-24	Real Betis	D 0-0	1446	1440	68.0%	13.4%	18.6%	-0.4	11
1929-03-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1440	1446	18.6%	13.4%	68.0%	+0.4	8
1929-03-24	Celta Vigo	D 2-2	1444	1442	67.5%	13.5%	18.9%	-0.2	10
1929-03-24	@ Sevilla	D 2-2	1442	1444	18.9%	13.5%	67.5%	+0.2	7
1929-03-24	Iberia	D 2-2	1440	1440	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	-0.3	5
1929-03-24	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1440	1440	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	+0.2	7
1929-03-24	Real Oviedo	W 4-2	1442	1442	67.4%	13.6%	19.1%	+0.9	11
1929-03-24	@ Valencia	L 2-4	1442	1442	19.1%	13.6%	67.4%	-0.9	9
1929-03-31	Alaves	L 0-1	1443	1445	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	-1.9	7
1929-03-31	@ Celta Vigo	W 1-0	1445	1443	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	+1.9	16
1929-03-31	Sporting Gijon	W 4-0	1431	1439	66.5%	13.7%	19.8%	+2.2	4
1929-03-31	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 0-4	1439	1431	19.8%	13.7%	66.5%	-2.2	5
1929-03-31	Iberia	D 1-1	1440	1440	67.5%	13.5%	19.0%	-0.3	9
1929-03-31	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1440	1440	19.0%	13.5%	67.5%	+0.3	8
1929-03-31	Sevilla	D 2-2	1442	1443	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-0.2	10
1929-03-31	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1443	1442	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+0.2	11
1929-03-31	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1443	1445	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.6	14
1929-03-31	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1445	1443	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.6	11
1929-04-07	Valencia	W 1-0	1447	1444	67.8%	13.5%	18.8%	+0.6	19
1929-04-07	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1444	1447	18.8%	13.5%	67.8%	-0.6	14
1929-04-07	Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1445	1441	67.8%	13.5%	18.8%	-0.3	12
1929-04-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1441	1445	18.8%	13.5%	67.8%	+0.3	11
1929-04-07	Racing Club Madrid	W 3-2	1440	1433	68.2%	13.4%	18.5%	+0.5	11
1929-04-07	@ Iberia	L 2-3	1433	1440	18.5%	13.4%	68.2%	-0.5	4
1929-04-07	Real Betis	W 3-0	1444	1440	67.8%	13.5%	18.7%	+1.6	14
1929-04-07	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1440	1444	18.7%	13.5%	67.8%	-1.6	9
1929-04-07	Celta Vigo	W 5-0	1437	1441	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	+2.7	8
1929-04-07	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-5	1441	1437	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	-2.7	7
1929-04-21	Iberia	W 3-0	1445	1441	67.8%	13.5%	18.7%	+1.6	15
1929-04-21	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-3	1441	1445	18.7%	13.5%	67.8%	-1.6	11
1929-04-21	Real Betis	L 1-2	1433	1438	66.8%	13.7%	19.5%	-1.8	4
1929-04-21	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 2-1	1438	1433	19.5%	13.7%	66.8%	+1.8	12
1929-04-21	Celta Vigo	W 5-0	1442	1438	67.8%	13.5%	18.8%	+2.6	14
1929-04-21	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-5	1438	1442	18.8%	13.5%	67.8%	-2.6	7
1929-04-21	Alaves	W 1-0	1445	1448	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.6	17
1929-04-21	@ Sevilla	L 0-1	1448	1445	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	-0.6	19
1929-04-21	Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1443	1440	67.8%	13.5%	18.8%	-0.4	15
1929-04-21	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1440	1443	18.8%	13.5%	67.8%	+0.4	9
1929-04-28	Iberia	D 1-1	1447	1439	68.2%	13.4%	18.4%	-0.3	20
1929-04-28	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1439	1447	18.4%	13.4%	68.2%	+0.3	12
1929-04-28	Real Betis	W 3-1	1435	1440	66.9%	13.7%	19.4%	+1.0	10
1929-04-28	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-3	1440	1435	19.4%	13.7%	66.9%	-1.0	12
1929-04-28	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1431	1444	66.0%	13.8%	20.2%	+0.6	7
1929-04-28	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 2-3	1444	1431	20.2%	13.8%	66.0%	-0.6	14
1929-04-28	Valencia	W 4-2	1446	1443	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+0.9	20
1929-04-28	@ Sevilla	L 2-4	1443	1446	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-0.9	15
1929-04-28	Deportivo La Coruna	W 7-0	1440	1446	66.8%	13.7%	19.5%	+3.8	12
1929-04-28	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-7	1446	1440	19.5%	13.7%	66.8%	-3.8	15
1929-05-05	Racing Club Madrid	W 5-2	1442	1431	68.6%	13.3%	18.1%	+1.1	18
1929-05-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-5	1431	1442	18.1%	13.3%	68.6%	-1.1	7
1929-05-05	Sevilla	W 1-0	1440	1447	66.6%	13.7%	19.6%	+0.6	15
1929-05-05	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1447	1440	19.6%	13.7%	66.6%	-0.6	20
1929-05-05	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1439	1444	66.9%	13.7%	19.4%	+1.0	15
1929-05-05	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1444	1439	19.4%	13.7%	66.9%	-1.0	12
1929-05-05	Alaves	W 2-1	1444	1447	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.6	17
1929-05-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1447	1444	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	-0.6	20
1929-05-05	Celta Vigo	W 3-2	1442	1436	68.0%	13.4%	18.6%	+0.5	18
1929-05-05	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1436	1442	18.6%	13.4%	68.0%	-0.5	10
1929-05-12	Real Betis	D 1-1	1446	1440	68.0%	13.4%	18.5%	-0.3	21
1929-05-12	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1440	1446	18.5%	13.4%	68.0%	+0.4	16
1929-05-12	Iberia	L 1-2	1436	1440	67.0%	13.6%	19.4%	-1.8	10
1929-05-12	@ Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1440	1436	19.4%	13.6%	67.0%	+1.8	18
1929-05-12	Valencia	W 4-3	1430	1443	66.1%	13.8%	20.1%	+0.6	10
1929-05-12	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 3-4	1443	1430	20.1%	13.8%	66.1%	-0.6	18
1929-05-12	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	1446	1444	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+1.1	23
1929-05-12	@ Sevilla	L 0-2	1444	1446	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-1.1	18
1929-05-12	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1443	1444	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+0.5	15
1929-05-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-3	1444	1443	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-0.5	17
1929-05-26	Alaves	L 0-1	1442	1446	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	-1.9	18
1929-05-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	1446	1442	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	+1.9	24
1929-05-26	Valencia	W 3-1	1442	1442	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+1.0	21
1929-05-26	@ Iberia	L 1-3	1442	1442	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-1.0	18
1929-05-26	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1431	1434	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.6	13
1929-05-26	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 1-2	1434	1431	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	-0.6	10
1929-05-26	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1440	1444	67.1%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.5	19
1929-05-26	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1444	1440	19.3%	13.6%	67.1%	-0.5	17
1929-05-26	Sevilla	W 2-1	1444	1447	67.0%	13.6%	19.3%	+0.6	18
1929-05-26	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1447	1444	19.3%	13.6%	67.0%	-0.6	23
1929-05-30	Sporting Gijon	W 6-0	1448	1444	67.8%	13.5%	18.7%	+3.1	27
1929-05-30	@ Alaves	L 0-6	1444	1448	18.7%	13.5%	67.8%	-3.1	18
1929-05-30	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1434	1441	66.7%	13.7%	19.6%	-0.3	11
1929-05-30	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1441	1434	19.6%	13.7%	66.7%	+0.3	19
1929-05-30	Iberia	W 2-1	1443	1443	67.4%	13.5%	19.0%	+0.6	20
1929-05-30	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1443	1443	19.0%	13.5%	67.4%	-0.6	21
1929-05-30	Racing Club Madrid	W 2-1	1447	1431	69.0%	13.2%	17.8%	+0.5	26
1929-05-30	@ Sevilla	L 1-2	1431	1447	17.8%	13.2%	69.0%	-0.5	13
1929-05-30	Real Betis	W 3-1	1441	1441	67.4%	13.6%	19.0%	+1.0	21
1929-05-30	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1441	1441	19.0%	13.6%	67.4%	-1.0	19
1929-06-02	Sevilla	W 3-2	1433	1447	65.9%	13.9%	20.2%	+0.6	14
1929-06-02	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-3	1447	1433	20.2%	13.9%	65.9%	-0.6	26
1929-06-02	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	1442	1441	67.5%	13.5%	18.9%	-0.2	22
1929-06-02	@ Iberia	D 3-3	1441	1442	18.9%	13.5%	67.5%	+0.2	19
1929-06-02	Alaves	W 3-2	1431	1451	65.2%	14.0%	20.8%	+0.6	16
1929-06-02	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 2-3	1451	1431	20.8%	14.0%	65.2%	-0.6	27
1929-06-02	Deportivo La Coruna	W 8-0	1440	1441	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+4.2	22
1929-06-02	@ Real Betis	L 0-8	1441	1440	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-4.2	19
1929-06-02	Valencia	L 1-2	1444	1442	67.6%	13.5%	18.9%	-1.8	20
1929-06-02	@ Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1442	1444	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	+1.8	24
1929-06-09	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1450	1434	69.1%	13.2%	17.7%	-0.4	28
1929-06-09	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1434	1450	17.7%	13.2%	69.1%	+0.4	15
1929-06-09	Valencia	W 2-0	1437	1444	66.7%	13.7%	19.6%	+1.2	22
1929-06-09	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1444	1437	19.6%	13.7%	66.7%	-1.2	24
1929-06-09	Real Betis	W 3-2	1442	1444	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	+0.5	25
1929-06-09	@ Iberia	L 2-3	1444	1442	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	-0.5	22
1929-06-09	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1447	1442	67.9%	13.4%	18.7%	+1.2	29
1929-06-09	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	1442	1447	18.7%	13.4%	67.9%	-1.2	20
1929-06-09	Racing Club Madrid	W 5-1	1441	1431	68.4%	13.3%	18.2%	+1.7	22
1929-06-09	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1431	1441	18.2%	13.3%	68.4%	-1.7	16
1929-06-16	Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1434	1443	66.5%	13.7%	19.8%	-0.3	16
1929-06-16	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1443	1434	19.8%	13.7%	66.5%	+0.3	23
1929-06-16	Iberia	L 0-4	1430	1443	66.0%	13.8%	20.1%	-6.7	16
1929-06-16	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 4-0	1443	1430	20.1%	13.8%	66.0%	+6.7	28
1929-06-16	Sevilla	W 2-1	1444	1448	67.0%	13.6%	19.4%	+0.6	25
1929-06-16	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1448	1444	19.4%	13.6%	67.0%	-0.6	29
1929-06-16	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1441	1438	67.7%	13.5%	18.8%	+1.0	23
1929-06-16	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1438	1441	18.8%	13.5%	67.7%	-1.0	22
1929-06-16	Alaves	W 3-0	1443	1450	66.6%	13.7%	19.7%	+1.7	27
1929-06-16	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1450	1443	19.7%	13.7%	66.6%	-1.7	28
1929-06-23	Sevilla	D 1-1	1448	1447	67.5%	13.5%	18.9%	-0.3	29
1929-06-23	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1447	1448	18.9%	13.5%	67.5%	+0.3	30
1929-06-23	Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1434	1442	66.6%	13.7%	19.7%	-0.2	17
1929-06-23	@ Celta Vigo	D 3-3	1442	1434	19.7%	13.7%	66.6%	+0.2	24
1929-06-23	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1449	1437	68.7%	13.3%	18.0%	+0.5	31
1929-06-23	@ Iberia	L 1-2	1437	1449	18.0%	13.3%	68.7%	-0.5	22
1929-06-23	Racing Club Madrid	L 1-4	1444	1423	69.6%	13.0%	17.4%	-4.5	25
1929-06-23	@ Real Betis	W 4-1	1423	1444	17.4%	13.0%	69.6%	+4.6	19
1929-06-23	Valencia	W 3-1	1443	1444	67.3%	13.6%	19.1%	+1.0	26
1929-06-23	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-3	1444	1443	19.1%	13.6%	67.3%	-1.0	27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1929-06-23	17.37%	Racing Club Madrid	1423	4	@ Real Betis	1444	1
2	1929-06-02	18.89%	Valencia	1442	2	@ Real Oviedo	1444	1
3	1929-02-10	19.04%	Alaves	1441	2	@ Iberia	1441	1
4	1929-02-17	19.16%	Deportivo La Coruna	1442	4	@ Racing Club Madrid	1440	1
5	1929-03-31	19.26%	Alaves	1445	1	@ Celta Vigo	1443	0
6	1929-05-26	19.33%	Alaves	1446	1	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1442	0
7	1929-05-12	19.39%	Iberia	1440	2	@ Celta Vigo	1436	1
8	1929-04-21	19.52%	Real Betis	1438	2	@ Racing Club Madrid	1433	1
9	1929-06-16	20.14%	Iberia	1443	4	@ Racing Club Madrid	1430	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1929-06-16	6.74	Iberia	4	1443	20.14%	@ Racing Club Madrid	0	1430	66.03%
2	1929-06-23	4.56	Racing Club Madrid	4	1423	17.37%	@ Real Betis	1	1444	69.59%
3	1929-02-17	4.42	Deportivo La Coruna	4	1442	19.16%	@ Racing Club Madrid	1	1440	67.25%
4	1929-06-02	4.18	@ Real Betis	8	1440	67.32%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1441	19.11%
5	1929-04-28	3.76	@ Sporting Gijon	7	1440	66.79%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1446	19.53%
6	1929-05-30	3.12	@ Alaves	6	1448	67.80%	Sporting Gijon	0	1444	18.74%
7	1929-03-03	3.10	@ Celta Vigo	6	1440	67.97%	Racing Club Madrid	0	1435	18.60%
8	1929-04-07	2.71	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1437	67.03%	Celta Vigo	0	1441	19.34%
9	1929-04-21	2.63	@ Real Oviedo	5	1442	67.79%	Celta Vigo	0	1438	18.75%
10	1929-03-31	2.25	@ Racing Club Madrid	4	1431	66.50%	Sporting Gijon	0	1439	19.76%
11	1929-03-31	1.91	Alaves	1	1445	19.26%	@ Celta Vigo	0	1443	67.13%
12	1929-05-26	1.91	Alaves	1	1446	19.33%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	0	1442	67.04%
13	1929-06-02	1.82	Valencia	2	1442	18.89%	@ Real Oviedo	1	1444	67.60%
14	1929-02-10	1.81	Alaves	2	1441	19.04%	@ Iberia	1	1441	67.41%
15	1929-05-12	1.80	Iberia	2	1440	19.39%	@ Celta Vigo	1	1436	66.96%
16	1929-04-21	1.79	Real Betis	2	1438	19.52%	@ Racing Club Madrid	1	1433	66.80%
17	1929-06-09	1.73	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1441	68.43%	Racing Club Madrid	1	1431	18.25%
18	1929-06-16	1.71	@ Valencia	3	1443	66.62%	Alaves	0	1450	19.66%
19	1929-04-07	1.63	@ Sevilla	3	1444	67.79%	Real Betis	0	1440	18.74%
20	1929-04-21	1.63	@ Deportivo La Coruna	3	1445	67.80%	Iberia	0	1441	18.73%
21	1929-02-17	1.55	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1441	67.24%	Real Betis	2	1442	19.17%
22	1929-02-24	1.54	@ Real Oviedo	6	1441	67.30%	Sporting Gijon	2	1442	19.13%
23	1929-06-09	1.19	@ Sevilla	5	1447	67.89%	Real Oviedo	2	1442	18.66%
24	1929-06-09	1.18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	2	1437	66.66%	Valencia	0	1444	19.63%
25	1929-03-10	1.17	@ Iberia	2	1439	66.87%	Real Oviedo	0	1444	19.47%