1929-30 Segunda División Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Alaves

3.82 points above expected

22 points · 18.18 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leonesa

4.08 points below expected

14 points · 18.08 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Alaves	18	9	4	5	22	44	19	+25	18.2	+3.82
2	Iberia	18	6	9	3	21	26	22	+4	17.8	+3.23
3	Sporting Gijon	18	9	3	6	21	29	28	+1	18.2	+2.80
4	Sevilla	18	9	2	7	20	41	26	+15	18.5	+1.51
5	Valencia	18	7	4	7	18	40	43	-3	17.4	+0.56
6	Real Oviedo	18	8	2	8	18	37	44	-7	18.1	-0.11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	18	6	5	7	17	33	37	-4	17.4	-0.41
8	Real Murcia	18	6	3	9	15	40	50	-10	18.9	-3.88
9	Real Betis	18	6	2	10	14	29	39	-10	17.4	-3.44
10	Leonesa	18	5	4	9	14	30	41	-11	18.1	-4.08

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Alaves	1487	22	18.18	+3.82	90.0%	9	13	16	18	20	23	26
Sevilla	1482	20	18.49	+1.51	75.0%	9	13	16	18	20	24	29
Real Murcia	1479	15	18.88	-3.88	18.0%	9	13	16	19	21	25	27
Iberia	1479	21	17.77	+3.23	89.0%	10	13	15	18	20	22	23
Leonesa	1475	14	18.08	-4.08	18.0%	11	13	15	18	21	23	26
Valencia	1474	18	17.44	+0.56	62.0%	10	12	15	17	20	23	26
Sporting Gijon	1472	21	18.20	+2.80	88.0%	10	13	16	18	20	23	29
Real Oviedo	1468	18	18.11	-0.11	53.0%	9	13	16	18	20	23	25
Deportivo La Coruna	1466	17	17.41	-0.41	52.0%	9	11	15	17	20	23	25
Real Betis	1459	14	17.44	-3.44	15.0%	10	12	16	18	19	23	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	DLC	IBE	LEO	RB	RM	RO	SEV	SG	VAL
Alaves	—	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 3.00	1-1-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.91
Deportivo La Coruna	1-0-1 2.84	—	1-1-0 2.82	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.83	0-1-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.85
Iberia	1-1-0 2.86	0-1-1 2.95	—	1-1-0 2.86	1-1-0 2.94	1-1-0 2.84	1-1-0 2.94	1-1-0 2.88	0-1-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.93
Leonesa	0-1-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.96	0-1-1 2.91	—	0-1-1 2.99	2-0-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.97
Real Betis	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.79	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.83	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.86
Real Murcia	0-1-1 2.94	2-0-0 2.97	0-1-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.91	1-0-1 3.02	—	1-1-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.94	0-0-2 2.97
Real Oviedo	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.79	—	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 2.83	2-0-0 2.84
Sevilla	1-0-1 2.87	1-1-0 2.95	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.95	—	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.93
Sporting Gijon	1-0-1 2.87	1-1-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.87	2-0-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.83	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 2.87	—	1-1-0 2.89
Valencia	0-1-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.92	1-1-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.91	2-0-0 2.80	0-0-2 2.93	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.88	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.22%	3.89%	2.78%	3.89%	2.78%	21.11%
1	2.22%	4.44%	6.67%	4.44%	3.89%	1.67%	23.33%
2	3.89%	6.67%	8.89%	2.22%	1.11%	1.67%	24.44%
3	2.78%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	1.67%	—	12.22%
4	3.89%	3.89%	1.11%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	12.22%
5+	2.78%	1.67%	1.67%	—	0.56%	—	6.67%
Total	21.11%	23.33%	24.44%	12.22%	12.22%	6.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	3.88
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.010
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	38.89%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	1.06
StdDev scored	2.04
StdDev allowed	1.16
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.459
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Deportivo La Coruna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.95
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.025
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Iberia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.44
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.29
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.172
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Leonesa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	1.46
StdDev allowed	1.67
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.419
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	—	27.78%	50.00%	—	22.22%	—	100%

Real Betis — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.164
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	100%

Real Murcia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	1.77
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.198
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Real Oviedo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	1.76
Mean total goals/game	4.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.533
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Sevilla — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	1.84
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.376
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Sporting Gijon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	1.20
Mean total goals/game	3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.261
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.39
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.309
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alaves	22	18.2	+3.82
2	Iberia	21	17.8	+3.23
3	Sporting Gijon	21	18.2	+2.80
4	Sevilla	20	18.5	+1.51
5	Valencia	18	17.4	+0.56

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Leonesa	14	18.1	-4.08
2	Real Murcia	15	18.9	-3.88
3	Real Betis	14	17.4	-3.44
4	Deportivo La Coruna	17	17.4	-0.41
5	Real Oviedo	18	18.1	-0.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Gijon	3	Dec 15 – Dec 29	1 in 11
2	Alaves	3	Dec 22 – Jan 5	1 in 11
3	Valencia	2	Jan 12 – Jan 19	1 in 9
4	Real Oviedo	2	Dec 22 – Dec 29	1 in 8
5	Sevilla	2	Dec 8 – Dec 15	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Betis	5	Dec 8 – Jan 5	1 in 83
2	Leonesa	4	Feb 2 – Feb 23	1 in 72
3	Real Murcia	5	Jan 5 – Feb 2	1 in 26
4	Valencia	3	Dec 15 – Dec 29	1 in 11
5	Real Oviedo	3	Dec 1 – Dec 15	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Iberia	11	Dec 22 – Mar 5	1 in 524
2	Valencia	8	Jan 5 – Feb 23	1 in 127
3	Alaves	6	Dec 8 – Jan 12	1 in 26
4	Sporting Gijon	5	Feb 9 – Mar 9	1 in 21
5	Real Murcia	5	Dec 1 – Dec 29	1 in 18

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Leonesa	8	Feb 2 – Mar 23	1 in 344
2	Real Murcia	7	Jan 5 – Feb 16	1 in 38
3	Real Betis	5	Dec 8 – Jan 5	1 in 20
4	Iberia	3	Jan 5 – Jan 19	1 in 16
5	Deportivo La Coruna	5	Feb 16 – Mar 16	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Alaves	13.00%	13.00%	13.00%	8.00%	10.00%	11.00%	10.00%	7.00%	7.00%	8.00%
Iberia	7.00%	9.00%	12.00%	17.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	7.00%	14.00%	8.00%
Sporting Gijon	10.00%	9.00%	12.00%	11.00%	15.00%	6.00%	13.00%	7.00%	11.00%	6.00%
Sevilla	13.00%	11.00%	8.00%	13.00%	17.00%	10.00%	12.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%
Valencia	12.00%	10.00%	5.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	14.00%	11.00%	18.00%
Real Oviedo	11.00%	9.00%	9.00%	8.00%	14.00%	8.00%	9.00%	16.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	8.00%	10.00%	10.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	11.00%	12.00%	16.00%
Real Murcia	14.00%	10.00%	13.00%	11.00%	6.00%	12.00%	10.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%
Real Betis	4.00%	7.00%	6.00%	10.00%	9.00%	12.00%	15.00%	14.00%	13.00%	10.00%
Leonesa	8.00%	12.00%	12.00%	7.00%	6.00%	14.00%	7.00%	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Direct relegation
Sevilla	13.0%	77.0%	10.0%
Alaves	13.0%	72.0%	15.0%
Real Murcia	14.0%	69.0%	17.0%
Real Oviedo	11.0%	73.0%	16.0%
Sporting Gijon	10.0%	73.0%	17.0%
Iberia	7.0%	71.0%	22.0%
Leonesa	8.0%	69.0%	23.0%
Valencia	12.0%	59.0%	29.0%
Real Betis	4.0%	73.0%	23.0%
Deportivo La Coruna	8.0%	64.0%	28.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1929-12-01	Real Oviedo	W 4-1	1467	1470	70.9%	11.4%	17.7%	+1.3	3
1929-12-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1470	1467	17.7%	11.4%	70.9%	-1.3	0
1929-12-01	Sevilla	W 2-0	1486	1473	72.4%	11.2%	16.4%	+1.0	3
1929-12-01	@ Leonesa	L 0-2	1473	1486	16.4%	11.2%	72.4%	-1.0	0
1929-12-01	Valencia	W 5-2	1469	1471	71.0%	11.4%	17.6%	+1.2	3
1929-12-01	@ Real Betis	L 2-5	1471	1469	17.6%	11.4%	71.0%	-1.2	0
1929-12-01	Iberia	D 1-1	1486	1474	72.2%	11.2%	16.5%	-0.4	1
1929-12-01	@ Real Murcia	D 1-1	1474	1486	16.5%	11.2%	72.2%	+0.4	1
1929-12-01	Alaves	W 2-1	1471	1473	71.0%	11.4%	17.6%	+0.5	3
1929-12-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1473	1471	17.6%	11.4%	71.0%	-0.5	0
1929-12-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 5-1	1473	1468	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+1.7	3
1929-12-08	@ Alaves	L 1-5	1468	1473	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.7	3
1929-12-08	Real Betis	W 4-1	1475	1470	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+1.3	4
1929-12-08	@ Iberia	L 1-4	1470	1475	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.3	3
1929-12-08	Real Murcia	L 1-3	1469	1485	69.6%	11.6%	18.8%	-3.4	0
1929-12-08	@ Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1485	1469	18.8%	11.6%	69.6%	+3.4	4
1929-12-08	Sporting Gijon	W 2-0	1472	1472	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+1.1	3
1929-12-08	@ Sevilla	L 0-2	1472	1472	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-1.1	3
1929-12-08	Leonesa	W 3-1	1470	1487	69.5%	11.6%	18.8%	+1.0	3
1929-12-08	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1487	1470	18.8%	11.6%	69.5%	-1.0	3
1929-12-15	Valencia	W 3-1	1467	1471	70.8%	11.5%	17.7%	+0.9	6
1929-12-15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-3	1471	1467	17.7%	11.5%	70.8%	-0.9	3
1929-12-15	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1486	1465	73.0%	11.1%	15.9%	+0.8	6
1929-12-15	@ Leonesa	L 1-3	1465	1486	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	-0.8	0
1929-12-15	Sevilla	L 0-2	1469	1473	70.8%	11.5%	17.8%	-3.9	3
1929-12-15	@ Real Betis	W 2-0	1473	1469	17.8%	11.5%	70.8%	+3.9	6
1929-12-15	Alaves	D 2-2	1489	1474	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	-0.3	5
1929-12-15	@ Real Murcia	D 2-2	1474	1489	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	+0.3	4
1929-12-15	Iberia	W 2-0	1471	1476	70.7%	11.5%	17.8%	+1.1	6
1929-12-15	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-2	1476	1471	17.8%	11.5%	70.7%	-1.1	4
1929-12-22	Valencia	W 4-1	1475	1470	71.6%	11.3%	17.0%	+1.3	7
1929-12-22	@ Alaves	L 1-4	1470	1475	17.0%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.3	3
1929-12-22	Real Murcia	L 3-4	1468	1488	69.2%	11.7%	19.1%	-1.8	6
1929-12-22	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-3	1488	1468	19.1%	11.7%	69.2%	+1.8	8
1929-12-22	Leonesa	D 2-2	1475	1487	70.1%	11.6%	18.4%	-0.3	5
1929-12-22	@ Iberia	D 2-2	1487	1475	18.4%	11.6%	70.1%	+0.3	7
1929-12-22	Sporting Gijon	L 2-4	1465	1472	70.5%	11.5%	18.0%	-3.0	3
1929-12-22	@ Real Betis	W 4-2	1472	1465	18.0%	11.5%	70.5%	+3.0	9
1929-12-22	Sevilla	W 3-2	1464	1477	70.0%	11.6%	18.4%	+0.5	3
1929-12-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1477	1464	18.4%	11.6%	70.0%	-0.5	6
1929-12-29	Leonesa	W 5-0	1476	1487	70.1%	11.5%	18.3%	+2.6	10
1929-12-29	@ Alaves	L 0-5	1487	1476	18.3%	11.5%	70.1%	-2.6	7
1929-12-29	Real Betis	W 4-0	1490	1462	73.7%	11.0%	15.3%	+1.8	11
1929-12-29	@ Real Murcia	L 0-4	1462	1490	15.3%	11.0%	73.7%	-1.8	3
1929-12-29	Iberia	L 1-2	1476	1474	71.4%	11.4%	17.3%	-2.0	6
1929-12-29	@ Sevilla	W 2-1	1474	1476	17.3%	11.4%	71.4%	+2.0	8
1929-12-29	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1475	1466	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	+1.3	12
1929-12-29	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-4	1466	1475	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	-1.2	6
1929-12-29	Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1468	1465	71.5%	11.3%	17.2%	-1.9	3
1929-12-29	@ Valencia	W 3-2	1465	1468	17.2%	11.3%	71.5%	+1.9	6
1930-01-05	Real Betis	W 1-0	1465	1460	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+0.6	9
1930-01-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-1	1460	1465	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-0.6	3
1930-01-05	Valencia	D 3-3	1476	1466	72.1%	11.2%	16.7%	-0.3	9
1930-01-05	@ Iberia	D 3-3	1466	1476	16.7%	11.2%	72.1%	+0.3	4
1930-01-05	Sporting Gijon	W 4-0	1484	1476	71.9%	11.3%	16.8%	+2.0	10
1930-01-05	@ Leonesa	L 0-4	1476	1484	16.8%	11.3%	71.9%	-2.0	12
1930-01-05	Alaves	L 0-1	1467	1478	70.1%	11.6%	18.4%	-2.1	6
1930-01-05	@ Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1478	1467	18.4%	11.6%	70.1%	+2.1	13
1930-01-05	Real Murcia	W 6-1	1474	1492	69.5%	11.6%	18.9%	+2.2	9
1930-01-05	@ Sevilla	L 1-6	1492	1474	18.9%	11.6%	69.5%	-2.2	11
1930-01-12	Iberia	D 0-0	1481	1476	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	-0.5	14
1930-01-12	@ Alaves	D 0-0	1476	1481	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	+0.5	10
1930-01-12	Leonesa	W 4-3	1465	1486	69.2%	11.7%	19.2%	+0.5	12
1930-01-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 3-4	1486	1465	19.2%	11.7%	69.2%	-0.5	10
1930-01-12	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1459	1465	70.7%	11.5%	17.9%	+1.2	6
1930-01-12	@ Real Betis	L 2-5	1465	1459	17.9%	11.5%	70.7%	-1.2	6
1930-01-12	Real Murcia	W 3-2	1474	1490	69.7%	11.6%	18.7%	+0.6	15
1930-01-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-3	1490	1474	18.7%	11.6%	69.7%	-0.5	11
1930-01-12	Sevilla	W 4-2	1467	1477	70.2%	11.5%	18.2%	+0.9	7
1930-01-12	@ Valencia	L 2-4	1477	1467	18.2%	11.5%	70.2%	-0.9	9
1930-01-19	Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1477	1466	72.2%	11.2%	16.6%	-0.5	11
1930-01-19	@ Iberia	D 0-0	1466	1477	16.6%	11.2%	72.2%	+0.5	13
1930-01-19	Real Betis	D 2-2	1486	1460	73.5%	11.0%	15.5%	-0.3	11
1930-01-19	@ Leonesa	D 2-2	1460	1486	15.5%	11.0%	73.5%	+0.3	7
1930-01-19	Valencia	L 4-6	1489	1468	73.1%	11.1%	15.8%	-2.9	11
1930-01-19	@ Real Murcia	W 6-4	1468	1489	15.8%	11.1%	73.1%	+2.9	10
1930-01-19	Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1464	1475	70.1%	11.5%	18.3%	+0.6	9
1930-01-19	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1475	1464	18.3%	11.5%	70.1%	-0.6	15
1930-01-19	Alaves	W 2-1	1476	1480	70.8%	11.5%	17.8%	+0.5	12
1930-01-19	@ Sevilla	L 1-2	1480	1476	17.8%	11.5%	70.8%	-0.5	14
1930-01-26	Sevilla	D 0-0	1466	1476	70.2%	11.5%	18.2%	-0.4	14
1930-01-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1476	1466	18.2%	11.5%	70.2%	+0.4	13
1930-01-26	Real Oviedo	W 4-1	1476	1464	72.3%	11.2%	16.5%	+1.2	14
1930-01-26	@ Iberia	L 1-4	1464	1476	16.5%	11.2%	72.3%	-1.2	9
1930-01-26	Real Murcia	W 4-0	1485	1486	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	+2.0	14
1930-01-26	@ Leonesa	L 0-4	1486	1485	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	-2.0	11
1930-01-26	Alaves	W 3-2	1461	1480	69.4%	11.6%	19.0%	+0.6	10
1930-01-26	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1480	1461	19.0%	11.6%	69.4%	-0.5	14
1930-01-26	Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1470	1474	70.8%	11.4%	17.7%	-0.3	11
1930-01-26	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1474	1470	17.7%	11.4%	70.8%	+0.3	16
1930-02-02	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1479	1474	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+0.9	17
1930-02-02	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1474	1479	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-0.9	16
1930-02-02	Real Murcia	W 2-0	1477	1484	70.5%	11.5%	18.0%	+1.1	17
1930-02-02	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1484	1477	18.0%	11.5%	70.5%	-1.1	11
1930-02-02	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1463	1466	70.9%	11.4%	17.6%	+0.5	12
1930-02-02	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1466	1463	17.6%	11.4%	70.9%	-0.5	14
1930-02-02	Leonesa	W 6-1	1477	1487	70.2%	11.5%	18.3%	+2.2	16
1930-02-02	@ Sevilla	L 1-6	1487	1477	18.3%	11.5%	70.2%	-2.2	14
1930-02-02	Real Betis	W 2-1	1470	1461	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	+0.5	14
1930-02-02	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1461	1470	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	-0.5	10
1930-02-09	Alaves	W 4-0	1465	1480	69.8%	11.6%	18.6%	+2.2	17
1930-02-09	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1480	1465	18.6%	11.6%	69.8%	-2.2	17
1930-02-09	Valencia	L 0-3	1485	1471	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	-5.9	14
1930-02-09	@ Leonesa	W 3-0	1471	1485	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	+5.9	17
1930-02-09	Iberia	D 1-1	1461	1479	69.5%	11.6%	18.9%	-0.4	11
1930-02-09	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1479	1461	18.9%	11.6%	69.5%	+0.4	18
1930-02-09	Real Oviedo	D 4-4	1483	1463	73.0%	11.1%	15.9%	-0.2	12
1930-02-09	@ Real Murcia	D 4-4	1463	1483	15.9%	11.1%	73.0%	+0.2	13
1930-02-09	Sevilla	W 2-1	1473	1479	70.7%	11.5%	17.9%	+0.5	19
1930-02-09	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1479	1473	17.9%	11.5%	70.7%	-0.6	16
1930-02-16	Real Murcia	W 5-0	1478	1483	70.7%	11.5%	17.8%	+2.6	20
1930-02-16	@ Alaves	L 0-5	1483	1478	17.8%	11.5%	70.7%	-2.6	12
1930-02-16	Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1479	1474	71.6%	11.3%	17.0%	-0.5	19
1930-02-16	@ Iberia	D 0-0	1474	1479	17.0%	11.3%	71.6%	+0.5	20
1930-02-16	Leonesa	W 3-0	1464	1479	69.7%	11.6%	18.7%	+1.7	16
1930-02-16	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-3	1479	1464	18.7%	11.6%	69.7%	-1.7	14
1930-02-16	Real Betis	W 2-0	1478	1460	72.8%	11.1%	16.1%	+1.0	19
1930-02-16	@ Sevilla	L 0-2	1460	1478	16.1%	11.1%	72.8%	-1.0	11
1930-02-16	Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1476	1467	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	-0.3	18
1930-02-16	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1467	1476	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	+0.3	18
1930-02-23	Iberia	L 0-1	1478	1478	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	-2.1	14
1930-02-23	@ Leonesa	W 1-0	1478	1478	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	+2.1	22
1930-02-23	Deportivo La Coruna	W 6-2	1480	1468	72.4%	11.2%	16.4%	+1.3	15
1930-02-23	@ Real Murcia	L 2-6	1468	1480	16.4%	11.2%	72.4%	-1.4	18
1930-02-23	Real Oviedo	W 4-0	1479	1465	72.5%	11.2%	16.4%	+1.9	22
1930-02-23	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1465	1479	16.4%	11.2%	72.5%	-1.9	16
1930-02-23	Real Betis	W 2-1	1474	1459	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	+0.5	23
1930-02-23	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1459	1474	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	-0.5	11
1930-02-23	Alaves	D 1-1	1476	1480	70.8%	11.5%	17.8%	-0.4	19
1930-02-23	@ Valencia	D 1-1	1480	1476	17.8%	11.5%	70.8%	+0.4	21
1930-03-05	Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1466	1475	70.4%	11.5%	18.1%	-0.4	19
1930-03-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1475	1466	18.1%	11.5%	70.4%	+0.4	24
1930-03-05	Sevilla	D 2-2	1481	1481	71.1%	11.4%	17.5%	-0.3	23
1930-03-05	@ Iberia	D 2-2	1481	1481	17.5%	11.4%	71.1%	+0.3	23
1930-03-05	Alaves	D 1-1	1476	1481	70.7%	11.5%	17.8%	-0.4	15
1930-03-05	@ Leonesa	D 1-1	1481	1476	17.8%	11.5%	70.7%	+0.4	22
1930-03-05	Real Murcia	W 2-1	1459	1482	69.0%	11.7%	19.3%	+0.6	14
1930-03-05	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1482	1459	19.3%	11.7%	69.0%	-0.6	15
1930-03-05	Valencia	W 5-0	1463	1476	70.0%	11.6%	18.4%	+2.7	19
1930-03-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-5	1476	1463	18.4%	11.6%	70.0%	-2.6	19
1930-03-09	Real Oviedo	W 6-0	1481	1466	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	+2.8	25
1930-03-09	@ Alaves	L 0-6	1466	1481	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	-2.8	19
1930-03-09	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1460	1466	70.6%	11.5%	17.9%	+1.0	17
1930-03-09	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1466	1460	17.9%	11.5%	70.6%	-0.9	19
1930-03-09	Sevilla	W 2-1	1481	1482	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+0.5	18
1930-03-09	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1482	1481	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-0.5	23
1930-03-09	Leonesa	W 3-0	1475	1475	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+1.5	27
1930-03-09	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-3	1475	1475	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-1.5	15
1930-03-09	Iberia	W 3-1	1473	1480	70.5%	11.5%	18.0%	+1.0	22
1930-03-09	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1480	1473	18.0%	11.5%	70.5%	-1.0	23
1930-03-16	Alaves	W 1-0	1479	1484	70.8%	11.5%	17.8%	+0.6	26
1930-03-16	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1484	1479	17.8%	11.5%	70.8%	-0.6	25
1930-03-16	Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1474	1465	72.0%	11.3%	16.7%	-0.3	16
1930-03-16	@ Leonesa	D 2-2	1465	1474	16.7%	11.3%	72.0%	+0.3	20
1930-03-16	Sporting Gijon	W 3-0	1482	1477	71.6%	11.3%	17.1%	+1.5	21
1930-03-16	@ Real Murcia	L 0-3	1477	1482	17.1%	11.3%	71.6%	-1.5	27
1930-03-16	Real Betis	W 4-1	1463	1461	71.4%	11.3%	17.2%	+1.3	22
1930-03-16	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1461	1463	17.2%	11.3%	71.4%	-1.3	17
1930-03-16	Valencia	W 4-0	1481	1474	71.8%	11.3%	16.9%	+2.0	26
1930-03-16	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1474	1481	16.9%	11.3%	71.8%	-2.0	22
1930-03-23	Sevilla	W 5-0	1483	1483	71.2%	11.4%	17.4%	+2.5	28
1930-03-23	@ Alaves	L 0-5	1483	1483	17.4%	11.4%	71.2%	-2.5	26
1930-03-23	Iberia	W 3-0	1465	1480	69.8%	11.6%	18.6%	+1.7	23
1930-03-23	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-3	1480	1465	18.6%	11.6%	69.8%	-1.7	26
1930-03-23	Leonesa	W 2-1	1459	1473	69.8%	11.6%	18.6%	+0.6	20
1930-03-23	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1473	1459	18.6%	11.6%	69.8%	-0.6	16
1930-03-23	Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1475	1465	72.2%	11.2%	16.6%	-3.5	27
1930-03-23	@ Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1465	1475	16.6%	11.2%	72.2%	+3.5	25
1930-03-23	Real Murcia	W 4-0	1472	1483	70.1%	11.5%	18.3%	+2.1	25
1930-03-23	@ Valencia	L 0-4	1483	1472	18.3%	11.5%	70.1%	-2.1	21
1930-03-30	Real Betis	W 2-0	1486	1460	73.5%	11.0%	15.5%	+1.0	31
1930-03-30	@ Alaves	L 0-2	1460	1486	15.5%	11.0%	73.5%	-1.0	20
1930-03-30	Leonesa	L 3-4	1481	1473	71.9%	11.3%	16.8%	-1.9	21
1930-03-30	@ Real Murcia	W 4-3	1473	1481	16.8%	11.3%	71.9%	+1.9	19
1930-03-30	Iberia	D 2-2	1468	1478	70.2%	11.5%	18.2%	-0.3	26
1930-03-30	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1478	1468	18.2%	11.5%	70.2%	+0.3	27
1930-03-30	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1480	1467	72.4%	11.2%	16.4%	+1.2	29
1930-03-30	@ Sevilla	L 1-4	1467	1480	16.4%	11.2%	72.4%	-1.2	23
1930-03-30	Valencia	W 2-1	1472	1474	71.0%	11.4%	17.6%	+0.5	30
1930-03-30	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1474	1472	17.6%	11.4%	71.0%	-0.5	25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1930-01-19	15.78%	Valencia	1468	6	@ Real Murcia	1489	4
2	1930-02-09	16.30%	Valencia	1471	3	@ Leonesa	1485	0
3	1930-03-23	16.59%	Real Oviedo	1465	3	@ Sporting Gijon	1475	1
4	1930-03-30	16.78%	Leonesa	1473	4	@ Real Murcia	1481	3
5	1929-12-29	17.16%	Real Oviedo	1465	3	@ Valencia	1468	2
6	1929-12-29	17.27%	Iberia	1474	2	@ Sevilla	1476	1
7	1930-02-23	17.48%	Iberia	1478	1	@ Leonesa	1478	0
8	1929-12-15	17.77%	Sevilla	1473	2	@ Real Betis	1469	0
9	1929-12-22	17.99%	Sporting Gijon	1472	4	@ Real Betis	1465	2
10	1930-01-05	18.36%	Alaves	1478	1	@ Real Oviedo	1467	0
11	1929-12-08	18.79%	Real Murcia	1485	3	@ Real Oviedo	1469	1
12	1929-12-22	19.14%	Real Murcia	1488	4	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1468	3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1930-02-09	5.86	Valencia	3	1471	16.30%	@ Leonesa	0	1485	72.52%
2	1929-12-15	3.94	Sevilla	2	1473	17.77%	@ Real Betis	0	1469	70.78%
3	1930-03-23	3.48	Real Oviedo	3	1465	16.59%	@ Sporting Gijon	1	1475	72.17%
4	1929-12-08	3.36	Real Murcia	3	1485	18.79%	@ Real Oviedo	1	1469	69.59%
5	1929-12-22	3.05	Sporting Gijon	4	1472	17.99%	@ Real Betis	2	1465	70.52%
6	1930-01-19	2.88	Valencia	6	1468	15.78%	@ Real Murcia	4	1489	73.14%
7	1930-03-09	2.78	@ Alaves	6	1481	72.54%	Real Oviedo	0	1466	16.28%
8	1930-03-05	2.65	@ Real Oviedo	5	1463	70.02%	Valencia	0	1476	18.42%
9	1929-12-29	2.63	@ Alaves	5	1476	70.13%	Leonesa	0	1487	18.32%
10	1930-02-16	2.56	@ Alaves	5	1478	70.69%	Real Murcia	0	1483	17.85%
11	1930-03-23	2.50	@ Alaves	5	1483	71.21%	Sevilla	0	1483	17.40%
12	1930-01-05	2.24	@ Sevilla	6	1474	69.50%	Real Murcia	1	1492	18.87%
13	1930-02-02	2.17	@ Sevilla	6	1477	70.17%	Leonesa	1	1487	18.29%
14	1930-02-09	2.17	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1465	69.79%	Alaves	0	1480	18.62%
15	1930-03-23	2.13	@ Valencia	4	1472	70.13%	Real Murcia	0	1483	18.32%
16	1930-02-23	2.10	Iberia	1	1478	17.48%	@ Leonesa	0	1478	71.12%
17	1930-01-05	2.07	Alaves	1	1478	18.36%	@ Real Oviedo	0	1467	70.09%
18	1930-01-26	2.04	@ Leonesa	4	1485	71.09%	Real Murcia	0	1486	17.50%
19	1929-12-29	1.99	Iberia	2	1474	17.27%	@ Sevilla	1	1476	71.36%
20	1930-03-16	1.97	@ Sevilla	4	1481	71.82%	Valencia	0	1474	16.89%
21	1930-01-05	1.96	@ Leonesa	4	1484	71.94%	Sporting Gijon	0	1476	16.78%
22	1930-02-23	1.91	@ Sevilla	4	1479	72.46%	Real Oviedo	0	1465	16.35%
23	1929-12-29	1.89	Real Oviedo	3	1465	17.16%	@ Valencia	2	1468	71.49%
24	1930-03-30	1.85	Leonesa	4	1473	16.78%	@ Real Murcia	3	1481	71.94%
25	1929-12-22	1.79	Real Murcia	4	1488	19.14%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	3	1468	69.19%