1930-31 Segunda División Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valencia

8.29 points above expected

26 points · 17.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Iberia

4.17 points below expected

13 points · 17.17 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valencia	18	12	2	4	26	37	25	+12	17.7	+8.29
2	Atletico Madrid	18	11	1	6	23	47	31	+16	20.7	+2.29
3	Sevilla	18	10	3	5	23	42	26	+16	18.1	+4.92
4	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	48	32	+16	17.7	+0.28
5	Castellon	18	6	6	6	18	27	31	-4	18.0	+0.02
6	Real Betis	18	7	3	8	17	25	36	-11	17.8	-0.75
7	Real Oviedo	18	4	6	8	14	39	41	-2	18.0	-3.97
8	Deportivo La Coruna	18	6	2	10	14	32	43	-11	17.4	-3.36
9	Real Murcia	18	6	2	10	14	29	46	-17	17.6	-3.55
10	Iberia	18	5	3	10	13	23	38	-15	17.2	-4.17

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Atletico Madrid	1625	23	20.71	+2.29	81.0%	12	14	18	21	23	25	29
Castellon	1556	18	17.98	+0.02	56.0%	8	13	16	18	20	23	27
Sevilla	1546	23	18.08	+4.92	96.0%	11	12	16	18	20	23	25
Valencia	1543	26	17.71	+8.29	99.0%	11	12	15	18	20	23	27
Sporting Gijon	1538	18	17.72	+0.28	61.0%	11	13	15	17	20	24	26
Real Oviedo	1526	14	17.97	-3.97	12.0%	11	12	16	18	20	23	28
Real Murcia	1523	14	17.55	-3.55	17.0%	11	12	16	17	20	23	27
Iberia	1523	13	17.17	-4.17	18.0%	10	11	15	17	20	22	28
Deportivo La Coruna	1521	14	17.36	-3.36	21.0%	8	12	15	17	20	23	25
Real Betis	1519	17	17.75	-0.75	45.0%	12	13	15	18	20	22	24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	CAS	DLC	IBE	RB	RM	RO	SEV	SG	VAL
Atletico Madrid	—	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 3.37	1-0-1 3.38	2-0-0 3.37	2-0-0 3.36	1-0-1 3.36	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 3.33	1-0-1 3.34
Castellon	1-0-1 2.53	—	1-1-0 3.04	1-1-0 3.01	0-1-1 3.05	1-0-1 3.05	1-1-0 3.03	0-1-1 2.96	1-0-1 3.00	0-1-1 3.01
Deportivo La Coruna	1-0-1 2.40	0-1-1 2.72	—	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.85
Iberia	1-0-1 2.39	0-1-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.91	—	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.84	0-1-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.83
Real Betis	0-0-2 2.40	1-1-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.85	—	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.87	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.83
Real Murcia	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 2.84	0-0-2 2.89	—	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.81	0-0-2 2.81
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 2.41	0-1-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.89	—	0-1-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.85
Sevilla	1-0-1 2.46	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 2.93	—	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.90
Sporting Gijon	0-1-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.84	—	1-0-1 2.88
Valencia	1-0-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.76	2-0-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.93	2-0-0 2.94	2-0-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.88	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.89%	4.44%	5.00%	1.67%	3.33%	20.56%
1	3.89%	6.67%	8.33%	2.22%	4.44%	1.67%	27.22%
2	4.44%	8.33%	3.33%	2.22%	—	2.22%	20.56%
3	5.00%	2.22%	2.22%	3.33%	1.11%	0.56%	14.44%
4	1.67%	4.44%	—	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	8.89%
5+	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	—	8.33%
Total	20.56%	27.22%	20.56%	14.44%	8.89%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.67
StdDev allowed	1.67
Mean total goals/game	3.88
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.008
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Atletico Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.54
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	4.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.302
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Castellon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.71
Mean total goals/game	3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.014
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	100%

Deportivo La Coruna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	2.39
StdDev scored	1.73
StdDev allowed	1.54
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.100
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Iberia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.28
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.36
StdDev allowed	1.78
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.208
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	—	16.67%	100%

Real Betis — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.78
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.212
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Real Murcia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.56
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	2.23
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.355
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Real Oviedo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	1.18
Mean total goals/game	4.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.146
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Sevilla — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	1.54
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.294
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Sporting Gijon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.67
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	2.68
StdDev allowed	1.44
Mean total goals/game	4.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.525
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Valencia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	3.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.416
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valencia	26	17.7	+8.29
2	Sevilla	23	18.1	+4.92
3	Atletico Madrid	23	20.7	+2.29
4	Sporting Gijon	18	17.7	+0.28
5	Castellon	18	18.0	+0.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Iberia	13	17.2	-4.17
2	Real Oviedo	14	18.0	-3.97
3	Real Murcia	14	17.6	-3.55
4	Deportivo La Coruna	14	17.4	-3.36
5	Real Betis	17	17.8	-0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valencia	6	Feb 22 – Mar 29	1 in 143
2	Real Betis	5	Dec 7 – Jan 4	1 in 120
3	Atletico Madrid	4	Jan 4 – Jan 25	1 in 27
4	Real Murcia	3	Feb 8 – Mar 1	1 in 15
5	Sevilla	3	Mar 15 – Mar 29	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Murcia	4	Dec 28 – Jan 18	1 in 47
2	Iberia	3	Dec 28 – Jan 11	1 in 12
3	Real Betis	3	Mar 15 – Mar 29	1 in 10
4	Atletico Madrid	2	Feb 22 – Mar 1	1 in 3
5	Castellon	2	Mar 8 – Mar 15	1 in 2

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Betis	6	Dec 7 – Jan 11	1 in 88
2	Valencia	6	Feb 22 – Mar 29	1 in 26
3	Sevilla	5	Dec 28 – Jan 25	1 in 22
4	Castellon	5	Dec 21 – Jan 18	1 in 16
5	Atletico Madrid	4	Jan 4 – Jan 25	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Murcia	9	Dec 7 – Feb 1	1 in 250
2	Real Betis	7	Jan 11 – Mar 1	1 in 59
3	Castellon	3	Dec 14 – Dec 28	1 in 19
4	Real Oviedo	4	Dec 14 – Jan 4	1 in 17
5	Iberia	4	Dec 21 – Jan 11	1 in 16

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valencia	7.00%	10.00%	13.00%	12.00%	12.00%	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	10.00%	9.00%
Atletico Madrid	37.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%	4.00%
Sevilla	10.00%	14.00%	13.00%	8.00%	15.00%	6.00%	9.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Sporting Gijon	10.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	15.00%	10.00%	10.00%	11.00%	8.00%	11.00%
Castellon	10.00%	11.00%	6.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	6.00%
Real Betis	5.00%	11.00%	12.00%	10.00%	9.00%	9.00%	8.00%	8.00%	16.00%	12.00%
Real Oviedo	9.00%	6.00%	12.00%	11.00%	9.00%	14.00%	14.00%	10.00%	9.00%	6.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	4.00%	11.00%	6.00%	10.00%	6.00%	14.00%	9.00%	14.00%	14.00%	12.00%
Real Murcia	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	13.00%	15.00%	11.00%	15.00%
Iberia	2.00%	10.00%	10.00%	6.00%	8.00%	16.00%	12.00%	8.00%	12.00%	16.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Direct relegation
Atletico Madrid	37.0%	59.0%	4.0%
Castellon	10.0%	84.0%	6.0%
Real Oviedo	9.0%	85.0%	6.0%
Sevilla	10.0%	81.0%	9.0%
Sporting Gijon	10.0%	79.0%	11.0%
Valencia	7.0%	84.0%	9.0%
Real Betis	5.0%	83.0%	12.0%
Deportivo La Coruna	4.0%	84.0%	12.0%
Real Murcia	6.0%	79.0%	15.0%
Iberia	2.0%	82.0%	16.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1930-12-07	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1527	1531	71.1%	11.9%	16.9%	+0.5	3
1930-12-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-1	1531	1527	16.9%	11.9%	71.1%	-0.5	0
1930-12-07	Iberia	W 2-1	1524	1533	70.6%	12.0%	17.4%	+0.5	3
1930-12-07	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1533	1524	17.4%	12.0%	70.6%	-0.5	0
1930-12-07	Castellon	L 1-2	1534	1559	69.0%	12.3%	18.7%	-1.9	0
1930-12-07	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1559	1534	18.7%	12.3%	69.0%	+1.9	3
1930-12-07	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1528	1619	62.1%	13.0%	24.9%	+1.9	3
1930-12-07	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1619	1528	24.9%	13.0%	62.1%	-1.9	0
1930-12-07	Sevilla	W 2-1	1531	1535	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	+0.5	3
1930-12-07	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1535	1531	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	-0.5	0
1930-12-14	Valencia	W 3-0	1617	1532	78.6%	10.2%	11.3%	+1.0	3
1930-12-14	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1532	1617	11.3%	10.2%	78.6%	-1.0	3
1930-12-14	Real Betis	L 1-2	1561	1525	74.7%	11.2%	14.1%	-2.1	3
1930-12-14	@ Castellon	W 2-1	1525	1561	14.1%	11.2%	74.7%	+2.1	6
1930-12-14	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	1533	1528	71.9%	11.8%	16.3%	+1.0	3
1930-12-14	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1528	1533	16.3%	11.8%	71.9%	-1.0	3
1930-12-14	Real Murcia	W 4-1	1534	1532	71.7%	11.8%	16.5%	+1.2	3
1930-12-14	@ Sevilla	L 1-4	1532	1534	16.5%	11.8%	71.7%	-1.2	0
1930-12-14	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1530	1530	71.4%	11.9%	16.7%	+0.5	3
1930-12-14	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1530	1530	16.7%	11.9%	71.4%	-0.5	3
1930-12-21	Sevilla	W 2-0	1618	1536	78.3%	10.2%	11.4%	+0.7	6
1930-12-21	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1536	1618	11.4%	10.2%	78.3%	-0.7	3
1930-12-21	Castellon	D 0-0	1534	1559	69.0%	12.3%	18.7%	-0.4	4
1930-12-21	@ Iberia	D 0-0	1559	1534	18.7%	12.3%	69.0%	+0.4	4
1930-12-21	Sporting Gijon	W 2-0	1527	1530	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	+1.0	9
1930-12-21	@ Real Betis	L 0-2	1530	1527	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	-1.0	3
1930-12-21	Real Murcia	D 1-1	1530	1531	71.4%	11.9%	16.8%	-0.4	4
1930-12-21	@ Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1531	1530	16.8%	11.9%	71.4%	+0.4	1
1930-12-21	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-0	1531	1527	71.8%	11.8%	16.4%	+1.5	6
1930-12-21	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1527	1531	16.4%	11.8%	71.8%	-1.5	3
1930-12-28	Valencia	D 1-1	1560	1532	73.9%	11.4%	14.7%	-0.4	5
1930-12-28	@ Castellon	D 1-1	1532	1560	14.7%	11.4%	73.9%	+0.4	7
1930-12-28	Atletico Madrid	W 5-2	1525	1619	61.8%	13.1%	25.2%	+1.6	6
1930-12-28	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-5	1619	1525	25.2%	13.1%	61.8%	-1.6	6
1930-12-28	Real Betis	L 1-2	1531	1528	71.7%	11.8%	16.4%	-2.0	1
1930-12-28	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1528	1531	16.4%	11.8%	71.7%	+2.0	12
1930-12-28	Real Oviedo	W 3-0	1535	1529	71.9%	11.8%	16.3%	+1.5	6
1930-12-28	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1529	1535	16.3%	11.8%	71.9%	-1.5	4
1930-12-28	Iberia	W 5-1	1529	1533	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	+1.6	6
1930-12-28	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1533	1529	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	-1.7	4
1931-01-04	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1559	1531	73.9%	11.4%	14.7%	+0.5	8
1931-01-04	@ Castellon	L 0-1	1531	1559	14.7%	11.4%	73.9%	-0.5	6
1931-01-04	Sevilla	L 0-2	1532	1536	71.0%	12.0%	17.0%	-3.9	4
1931-01-04	@ Iberia	W 2-0	1536	1532	17.0%	12.0%	71.0%	+3.9	9
1931-01-04	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-3	1530	1527	71.7%	11.8%	16.5%	+0.5	15
1931-01-04	@ Real Betis	L 3-4	1527	1530	16.5%	11.8%	71.7%	-0.5	6
1931-01-04	Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1529	1617	62.4%	13.0%	24.6%	-5.1	1
1931-01-04	@ Real Murcia	W 3-0	1617	1529	24.6%	13.0%	62.4%	+5.1	9
1931-01-04	Valencia	D 1-1	1528	1533	71.0%	12.0%	17.0%	-0.4	5
1931-01-04	@ Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1533	1528	17.0%	12.0%	71.0%	+0.4	8
1931-01-11	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1622	1531	79.0%	10.0%	10.9%	+0.8	12
1931-01-11	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-4	1531	1622	10.9%	10.0%	79.0%	-0.8	6
1931-01-11	Castellon	D 1-1	1527	1560	68.2%	12.4%	19.4%	-0.4	7
1931-01-11	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1560	1527	19.4%	12.4%	68.2%	+0.4	9
1931-01-11	Iberia	W 5-3	1527	1528	71.4%	11.9%	16.7%	+0.8	8
1931-01-11	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-5	1528	1527	16.7%	11.9%	71.4%	-0.8	4
1931-01-11	Real Betis	D 0-0	1540	1530	72.4%	11.7%	15.9%	-0.5	10
1931-01-11	@ Sevilla	D 0-0	1530	1540	15.9%	11.7%	72.4%	+0.5	16
1931-01-11	Real Murcia	W 2-0	1533	1524	72.3%	11.7%	16.0%	+1.0	11
1931-01-11	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1524	1533	16.0%	11.7%	72.3%	-1.0	1
1931-01-18	Sevilla	D 3-3	1560	1540	73.2%	11.5%	15.2%	-0.3	10
1931-01-18	@ Castellon	D 3-3	1540	1560	15.2%	11.5%	73.2%	+0.3	11
1931-01-18	Real Oviedo	D 4-4	1526	1528	71.2%	11.9%	16.8%	-0.2	8
1931-01-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 4-4	1528	1526	16.8%	11.9%	71.2%	+0.2	9
1931-01-18	Valencia	W 5-0	1527	1534	70.8%	12.0%	17.2%	+2.5	7
1931-01-18	@ Iberia	L 0-5	1534	1527	17.2%	12.0%	70.8%	-2.5	11
1931-01-18	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1531	1623	61.9%	13.0%	25.1%	-1.6	16
1931-01-18	@ Real Betis	W 3-2	1623	1531	25.1%	13.0%	61.9%	+1.7	15
1931-01-18	Real Murcia	W 9-0	1530	1523	72.1%	11.8%	16.2%	+4.1	9
1931-01-18	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-9	1523	1530	16.2%	11.8%	72.1%	-4.1	1
1931-01-25	Castellon	W 3-0	1625	1560	77.0%	10.6%	12.4%	+1.1	18
1931-01-25	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1560	1625	12.4%	10.6%	77.0%	-1.1	10
1931-01-25	Iberia	D 1-1	1519	1530	70.4%	12.1%	17.5%	-0.4	2
1931-01-25	@ Real Murcia	D 1-1	1530	1519	17.5%	12.1%	70.4%	+0.4	8
1931-01-25	Real Betis	D 2-2	1528	1529	71.4%	11.9%	16.7%	-0.3	10
1931-01-25	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1529	1528	16.7%	11.9%	71.4%	+0.3	17
1931-01-25	Deportivo La Coruna	W 5-2	1540	1526	72.7%	11.6%	15.7%	+1.0	14
1931-01-25	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	1526	1540	15.7%	11.6%	72.7%	-1.0	8
1931-01-25	Sporting Gijon	W 3-0	1531	1534	71.2%	11.9%	16.9%	+1.5	14
1931-01-25	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1534	1531	16.9%	11.9%	71.2%	-1.5	9
1931-02-01	Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1559	1528	74.2%	11.3%	14.5%	+0.5	13
1931-02-01	@ Castellon	L 0-1	1528	1559	14.5%	11.3%	74.2%	-0.5	10
1931-02-01	Real Murcia	W 5-4	1525	1518	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+0.5	11
1931-02-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 4-5	1518	1525	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-0.5	2
1931-02-01	Atletico Madrid	W 1-0	1530	1626	61.5%	13.1%	25.4%	+0.8	11
1931-02-01	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1626	1530	25.4%	13.1%	61.5%	-0.8	18
1931-02-01	Valencia	L 0-1	1529	1533	71.1%	11.9%	17.0%	-2.1	17
1931-02-01	@ Real Betis	W 1-0	1533	1529	17.0%	11.9%	71.1%	+2.1	17
1931-02-01	Sevilla	W 6-0	1532	1541	70.6%	12.0%	17.3%	+3.0	12
1931-02-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-6	1541	1532	17.3%	12.0%	70.6%	-3.0	14
1931-02-08	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1625	1528	79.4%	9.9%	10.7%	+0.3	21
1931-02-08	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1528	1625	10.7%	9.9%	79.4%	-0.3	10
1931-02-08	Real Murcia	L 1-3	1559	1518	75.0%	11.1%	13.8%	-3.6	13
1931-02-08	@ Castellon	W 3-1	1518	1559	13.8%	11.1%	75.0%	+3.6	5
1931-02-08	Real Betis	W 2-0	1531	1527	71.8%	11.8%	16.4%	+1.0	14
1931-02-08	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1527	1531	16.4%	11.8%	71.8%	-1.0	17
1931-02-08	Valencia	W 5-0	1538	1535	71.7%	11.8%	16.4%	+2.4	17
1931-02-08	@ Sevilla	L 0-5	1535	1538	16.4%	11.8%	71.7%	-2.4	17
1931-02-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-0	1535	1525	72.3%	11.7%	16.0%	+1.4	15
1931-02-08	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-3	1525	1535	16.0%	11.7%	72.3%	-1.4	11
1931-02-22	Iberia	W 4-0	1524	1532	70.7%	12.0%	17.3%	+2.0	14
1931-02-22	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1532	1524	17.3%	12.0%	70.7%	-2.0	14
1931-02-22	Castellon	D 1-1	1526	1556	68.6%	12.3%	19.0%	-0.4	18
1931-02-22	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1556	1526	19.0%	12.3%	68.6%	+0.4	14
1931-02-22	Sevilla	W 2-1	1522	1540	69.7%	12.2%	18.2%	+0.6	8
1931-02-22	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1540	1522	18.2%	12.2%	69.7%	-0.5	17
1931-02-22	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1527	1537	70.5%	12.0%	17.4%	+0.9	13
1931-02-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1537	1527	17.4%	12.0%	70.5%	-0.9	15
1931-02-22	Atletico Madrid	W 4-3	1533	1625	61.9%	13.0%	25.1%	+0.7	20
1931-02-22	@ Valencia	L 3-4	1625	1533	25.1%	13.0%	61.9%	-0.7	21
1931-03-01	Iberia	W 4-0	1556	1530	73.8%	11.4%	14.8%	+1.7	17
1931-03-01	@ Castellon	L 0-4	1530	1556	14.8%	11.4%	73.8%	-1.7	14
1931-03-01	Valencia	L 1-2	1526	1533	70.7%	12.0%	17.2%	-2.0	14
1931-03-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1533	1526	17.2%	12.0%	70.7%	+2.0	23
1931-03-01	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1522	1528	70.9%	12.0%	17.2%	+0.5	11
1931-03-01	@ Real Murcia	L 2-3	1528	1522	17.2%	12.0%	70.9%	-0.5	13
1931-03-01	Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1540	1625	62.8%	13.0%	24.2%	+1.3	20
1931-03-01	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1625	1540	24.2%	13.0%	62.8%	-1.3	21
1931-03-01	Real Betis	W 5-0	1536	1526	72.3%	11.7%	16.0%	+2.3	18
1931-03-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-5	1526	1536	16.0%	11.7%	72.3%	-2.3	18
1931-03-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	1623	1524	79.6%	9.9%	10.6%	+0.3	24
1931-03-08	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-1	1524	1623	10.6%	9.9%	79.6%	-0.3	14
1931-03-08	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	1528	1538	70.5%	12.0%	17.5%	-0.2	15
1931-03-08	@ Iberia	D 3-3	1538	1528	17.5%	12.0%	70.5%	+0.2	19
1931-03-08	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1524	1523	71.5%	11.9%	16.6%	+1.5	21
1931-03-08	@ Real Betis	L 0-3	1523	1524	16.6%	11.9%	71.5%	-1.5	11
1931-03-08	Sevilla	D 3-3	1528	1541	70.2%	12.1%	17.7%	-0.2	14
1931-03-08	@ Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1541	1528	17.7%	12.1%	70.2%	+0.2	21
1931-03-08	Castellon	W 2-0	1535	1558	69.3%	12.2%	18.4%	+1.1	26
1931-03-08	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1558	1535	18.4%	12.2%	69.3%	-1.1	17
1931-03-15	Real Murcia	W 6-1	1624	1521	79.8%	9.8%	10.4%	+1.2	27
1931-03-15	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-6	1521	1624	10.4%	9.8%	79.8%	-1.2	11
1931-03-15	Real Betis	W 2-1	1524	1525	71.3%	11.9%	16.8%	+0.5	17
1931-03-15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1525	1524	16.8%	11.9%	71.3%	-0.5	21
1931-03-15	Iberia	W 3-0	1541	1528	72.7%	11.6%	15.7%	+1.4	24
1931-03-15	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1528	1541	15.7%	11.6%	72.7%	-1.4	15
1931-03-15	Castellon	W 7-2	1538	1556	69.7%	12.2%	18.1%	+1.8	22
1931-03-15	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-7	1556	1538	18.1%	12.2%	69.7%	-1.8	17
1931-03-15	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1536	1528	72.2%	11.7%	16.0%	+1.0	29
1931-03-15	@ Valencia	L 2-5	1528	1536	16.0%	11.7%	72.2%	-1.0	14
1931-03-22	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1555	1524	74.1%	11.3%	14.5%	+0.5	20
1931-03-22	@ Castellon	L 1-2	1524	1555	14.5%	11.3%	74.1%	-0.4	17
1931-03-22	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1526	1526	71.4%	11.9%	16.7%	+0.5	18
1931-03-22	@ Iberia	L 1-2	1526	1526	16.7%	11.9%	71.4%	-0.5	14
1931-03-22	Sevilla	L 0-1	1525	1543	69.7%	12.2%	18.1%	-2.1	21
1931-03-22	@ Real Betis	W 1-0	1543	1525	18.1%	12.2%	69.7%	+2.1	27
1931-03-22	Valencia	L 1-2	1520	1538	69.8%	12.2%	18.1%	-1.9	11
1931-03-22	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1538	1520	18.1%	12.2%	69.8%	+1.9	32
1931-03-22	Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1540	1625	62.8%	13.0%	24.2%	-0.2	23
1931-03-22	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1625	1540	24.2%	13.0%	62.8%	+0.2	28
1931-03-29	Real Betis	W 5-1	1625	1522	79.8%	9.8%	10.4%	+1.0	31
1931-03-29	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-5	1522	1625	10.4%	9.8%	79.8%	-1.0	21
1931-03-29	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1518	1540	69.3%	12.2%	18.4%	+1.4	14
1931-03-29	@ Real Murcia	L 1-4	1540	1518	18.4%	12.2%	69.3%	-1.4	23
1931-03-29	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1526	1524	71.6%	11.8%	16.5%	+1.2	17
1931-03-29	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1524	1526	16.5%	11.8%	71.6%	-1.2	17
1931-03-29	Castellon	W 3-1	1545	1555	70.5%	12.0%	17.5%	+0.9	30
1931-03-29	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1555	1545	17.5%	12.0%	70.5%	-0.9	20
1931-03-29	Iberia	W 2-0	1539	1527	72.6%	11.7%	15.8%	+1.0	35
1931-03-29	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1527	1539	15.8%	11.7%	72.6%	-1.0	18
1931-04-05	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1554	1626	64.2%	12.9%	22.9%	+1.7	23
1931-04-05	@ Castellon	L 1-4	1626	1554	22.9%	12.9%	64.2%	-1.7	31
1931-04-05	Sevilla	W 2-1	1523	1546	69.2%	12.3%	18.5%	+0.6	20
1931-04-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1546	1523	18.5%	12.3%	69.2%	-0.6	30
1931-04-05	Real Murcia	L 1-2	1526	1519	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	-2.0	18
1931-04-05	@ Iberia	W 2-1	1519	1526	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	+2.0	17
1931-04-05	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1521	1527	70.9%	12.0%	17.1%	+0.5	24
1931-04-05	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1527	1521	17.1%	12.0%	70.9%	-0.5	17
1931-04-05	Valencia	W 2-1	1539	1540	71.3%	11.9%	16.8%	+0.5	26
1931-04-05	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1540	1539	16.8%	11.9%	71.3%	-0.5	35
1931-04-12	Iberia	W 4-1	1624	1524	79.7%	9.8%	10.5%	+0.8	34
1931-04-12	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-4	1524	1624	10.5%	9.8%	79.7%	-0.8	18
1931-04-12	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-0	1521	1523	71.3%	11.9%	16.8%	+2.0	20
1931-04-12	@ Real Murcia	L 0-4	1523	1521	16.8%	11.9%	71.3%	-2.0	20
1931-04-12	Castellon	D 2-2	1527	1556	68.6%	12.3%	19.0%	-0.3	18
1931-04-12	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1556	1527	19.0%	12.3%	68.6%	+0.3	24
1931-04-12	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1545	1539	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+1.2	33
1931-04-12	@ Sevilla	L 1-4	1539	1545	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-1.2	26
1931-04-12	Real Betis	W 6-0	1540	1522	73.0%	11.6%	15.4%	+2.6	38
1931-04-12	@ Valencia	L 0-6	1522	1540	15.4%	11.6%	73.0%	-2.6	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1931-02-08	13.83%	Real Murcia	1518	3	@ Castellon	1559	1
2	1930-12-14	14.12%	Real Betis	1525	2	@ Castellon	1561	1
3	1931-04-05	16.20%	Real Murcia	1519	2	@ Iberia	1526	1
4	1930-12-28	16.45%	Real Betis	1528	2	@ Real Murcia	1531	1
5	1931-02-01	16.96%	Valencia	1533	1	@ Real Betis	1529	0
6	1931-01-04	17.03%	Sevilla	1536	2	@ Iberia	1532	0
7	1931-03-01	17.25%	Valencia	1533	2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1526	1
8	1931-03-22	18.06%	Valencia	1538	2	@ Real Murcia	1520	1
9	1931-03-22	18.12%	Sevilla	1543	1	@ Real Betis	1525	0
10	1930-12-07	18.72%	Castellon	1559	2	@ Real Murcia	1534	1
11	1931-01-04	24.62%	Atletico Madrid	1617	3	@ Real Murcia	1529	0
12	1931-01-18	25.06%	Atletico Madrid	1623	3	@ Real Betis	1531	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1931-01-04	5.07	Atletico Madrid	3	1617	24.62%	@ Real Murcia	0	1529	62.37%
2	1931-01-18	4.07	@ Sporting Gijon	9	1530	72.06%	Real Murcia	0	1523	16.17%
3	1931-01-04	3.94	Sevilla	2	1536	17.03%	@ Iberia	0	1532	71.01%
4	1931-02-08	3.59	Real Murcia	3	1518	13.83%	@ Castellon	1	1559	75.05%
5	1931-02-01	2.96	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1532	70.62%	Sevilla	0	1541	17.35%
6	1931-04-12	2.62	@ Valencia	6	1540	73.05%	Real Betis	0	1522	15.38%
7	1931-01-18	2.48	@ Iberia	5	1527	70.79%	Valencia	0	1534	17.21%
8	1931-02-08	2.36	@ Sevilla	5	1538	71.71%	Valencia	0	1535	16.45%
9	1931-03-01	2.29	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1536	72.34%	Real Betis	0	1526	15.95%
10	1931-02-01	2.09	Valencia	1	1533	16.96%	@ Real Betis	0	1529	71.10%
11	1930-12-14	2.07	Real Betis	2	1525	14.12%	@ Castellon	1	1561	74.67%
12	1931-03-22	2.06	Sevilla	1	1543	18.12%	@ Real Betis	0	1525	69.70%
13	1931-02-22	2.02	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1524	70.71%	Iberia	0	1532	17.28%
14	1931-04-05	2.00	Real Murcia	2	1519	16.20%	@ Iberia	1	1526	72.03%
15	1930-12-28	1.99	Real Betis	2	1528	16.45%	@ Real Murcia	1	1531	71.72%
16	1931-03-01	1.97	Valencia	2	1533	17.25%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1526	70.74%
17	1931-04-12	1.96	@ Real Murcia	4	1521	71.27%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1523	16.81%
18	1931-03-22	1.94	Valencia	2	1538	18.06%	@ Real Murcia	1	1520	69.77%
19	1930-12-07	1.92	Castellon	2	1559	18.72%	@ Real Murcia	1	1534	68.99%
20	1930-12-07	1.86	@ Real Oviedo	4	1528	62.10%	Atletico Madrid	1	1619	24.88%
21	1931-03-15	1.81	@ Sporting Gijon	7	1538	69.72%	Castellon	2	1556	18.10%
22	1931-03-01	1.72	@ Castellon	4	1556	73.77%	Iberia	0	1530	14.82%
23	1931-04-05	1.72	@ Castellon	4	1554	64.19%	Atletico Madrid	1	1626	22.94%
24	1930-12-28	1.65	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1529	71.06%	Iberia	1	1533	16.99%
25	1931-01-18	1.65	Atletico Madrid	3	1623	25.06%	@ Real Betis	2	1531	61.90%