1940-41 Allsvenskan Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Helsingborg

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Degerfors

6.20 points above expected

29 points · 22.80 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sleipner

7.29 points below expected

10 points · 17.29 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Helsingborg	22	14	3	5	31	46	26	+20	25.76	+5.24
2	Degerfors	22	12	5	5	29	47	28	+19	22.80	+6.20
3	AIK Stockholm	22	11	4	7	26	45	36	+9	24.43	+1.57
4	Elfsborg	22	11	3	8	25	54	37	+17	27.49	-2.49
5	Landskrona	22	8	9	5	25	36	36	0	20.66	+4.34
6	Goteborg	22	8	6	8	22	42	36	+6	24.06	-2.06
7	Norrkoping	22	8	6	8	22	35	32	+3	22.33	-0.33
8	Malmo	22	7	8	7	22	33	33	0	21.30	+0.70
9	Garda	22	7	4	11	18	31	42	-11	16.93	+1.07
10	Sandvikens IF	22	6	6	10	18	30	42	-12	20.12	-2.12
11	Brage	22	6	4	12	16	39	53	-14	20.83	-4.83
12	Sleipner	22	3	4	15	10	28	65	-37	17.29	-7.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Degerfors	29	22.80	+6.20
2	Helsingborg	31	25.76	+5.24
3	Landskrona	25	20.66	+4.34
4	AIK Stockholm	26	24.43	+1.57
5	Garda	18	16.93	+1.07

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sleipner	10	17.29	-7.29
2	Brage	16	20.83	-4.83
3	Elfsborg	25	27.49	-2.49
4	Sandvikens IF	18	20.12	-2.12
5	Goteborg	22	24.06	-2.06

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Degerfors	3	Aug 4 – Aug 18	1 in 58
2	Helsingborg	4	Aug 25 – Sep 15	1 in 29
3	Garda	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 24
4	Sleipner	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 17
5	AIK Stockholm	3	Aug 4 – Aug 18	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sleipner	8	Apr 20 – Jun 2	1 in 211
2	Brage	6	Nov 3 – May 4	1 in 126
3	Sandvikens IF	4	Sep 8 – Sep 29	1 in 91
4	Malmo	3	Sep 15 – Sep 29	1 in 44
5	AIK Stockholm	3	Sep 29 – Oct 27	1 in 35

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Degerfors	7	Apr 27 – May 25	1 in 29
2	Malmo	6	Apr 27 – May 25	1 in 26
3	Landskrona	8	Sep 15 – Apr 27	1 in 26
4	Helsingborg	8	Aug 25 – Nov 3	1 in 22
5	Sandvikens IF	4	May 18 – Jun 2	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Norrkoping	4	May 11 – May 25	1 in 10
2	Sleipner	8	Apr 20 – Jun 2	1 in 9
3	Garda	7	Aug 4 – Sep 15	1 in 9
4	Sandvikens IF	5	Apr 27 – May 22	1 in 8
5	Brage	6	Nov 3 – May 4	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Helsingborg	1392	31	+11	7	6.9	+0.1
Degerfors	1309	29	+60	7	5.3	+1.7
AIK Stockholm	1276	26	-36	5	5.8	-0.8
Elfsborg	1348	25	-4	5	5.3	-0.3
Landskrona	1197	25	-11	4	4.5	-0.5
Goteborg	1325	22	+5	6	5.7	+0.3
Malmo	1218	22	+0	5	4.8	+0.2
Norrkoping	1260	22	-10	4	5.3	-1.3
Garda	1173	18	+21	6	4.0	+2.0
Sandvikens IF	1156	18	-35	5	4.5	+0.5
Brage	1164	16	-3	5	5.0	+0.0
Sleipner	1013	10	-39	0	3.2	-3.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AS	BRA	DEG	ELF	GAR	GOT	HEL	LAN	MAL	NOR	SI	SLE
AIK Stockholm	—	1-0-1 3.15	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.47	1-1-0 3.72	1-0-1 3.10	0-0-2 2.56	1-1-0 3.32	1-0-1 3.08	0-2-0 2.97	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 3.76
Brage	1-0-1 2.36	—	0-1-1 2.48	0-1-1 1.89	1-0-1 3.09	1-0-1 2.34	0-0-2 2.21	0-0-2 2.87	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.45	0-1-1 3.01	1-1-0 3.42
Degerfors	1-0-1 2.35	1-1-0 3.04	—	1-1-0 2.04	1-0-1 3.49	1-0-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.12	1-0-1 2.82	0-2-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.94	1-1-0 3.30
Elfsborg	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 3.63	0-1-1 3.49	—	1-1-0 3.79	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.54	1-0-1 3.84	2-0-0 3.25	1-0-1 3.79	1-0-1 4.23
Garda	0-1-1 1.81	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.03	0-1-1 1.75	—	0-1-1 1.83	1-0-1 1.51	0-0-2 2.27	2-0-0 2.11	0-0-2 2.03	0-1-1 2.46	2-0-0 3.13
Goteborg	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.56	1-1-0 3.69	—	0-0-2 2.34	0-2-0 3.33	0-2-0 3.22	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 3.57	2-0-0 3.42
Helsingborg	2-0-0 2.95	2-0-0 3.30	0-0-2 3.40	1-0-1 2.45	1-0-1 4.02	2-0-0 3.17	—	0-2-0 3.46	1-1-0 3.31	1-0-1 3.39	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.62
Landskrona	0-1-1 2.19	2-0-0 2.63	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 1.98	2-0-0 3.25	0-2-0 2.18	0-2-0 2.06	—	1-0-1 2.66	0-2-0 2.47	0-1-1 3.10	1-1-0 3.34
Malmo	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.82	0-2-0 2.39	1-0-1 1.69	0-0-2 3.41	0-2-0 2.29	0-1-1 2.20	1-0-1 2.85	—	1-1-0 2.53	0-2-0 3.02	2-0-0 3.45
Norrkoping	0-2-0 2.54	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.53	0-0-2 2.26	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.13	0-2-0 3.04	0-1-1 2.98	—	1-0-1 3.08	1-1-0 3.34
Sandvikens IF	0-0-2 2.50	1-1-0 2.49	0-0-2 2.57	1-0-1 1.74	1-1-0 3.05	1-1-0 1.95	0-0-2 2.21	1-1-0 2.41	0-2-0 2.49	1-0-1 2.43	—	0-0-2 3.28
Sleipner	0-0-2 1.75	0-1-1 2.10	0-1-1 2.22	1-0-1 1.32	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 2.09	0-0-2 1.94	0-1-1 2.18	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 2.19	2-0-0 2.23	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.54	+5.3
Allowed	0.84	-4.9
Differential	0.92	+3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.03%	3.79%	6.06%	1.89%	1.52%	1.52%	17.80%
1	3.79%	12.12%	5.68%	5.68%	1.89%	1.89%	31.06%
2	6.06%	5.68%	5.30%	5.68%	1.14%	1.14%	25.00%
3	1.89%	5.68%	5.68%	3.03%	—	0.38%	16.67%
4	1.52%	1.89%	1.14%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	1.52%	1.89%	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	4.92%
Total	17.80%	31.06%	25.00%	16.67%	4.55%	4.92%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.77	+0.00
SD	1.40	1.40	2.15
CV	0.79	0.79	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
4	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	22.73%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	1.64	+0.41
SD	1.36	1.29	2.13
CV	0.67	0.79	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	36.36%
2	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	31.82%	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	2.41	-0.64
SD	1.60	1.56	2.42
CV	0.90	0.65	—
Max	7	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	45.45%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.27	+0.86
SD	1.64	1.24	2.47
CV	0.77	0.98	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	40.91%	22.73%	27.27%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.45	1.68	+0.77
SD	1.77	0.99	2.27
CV	0.72	0.59	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	9.09%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	40.91%	31.82%	—	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.91	-0.50
SD	1.22	1.51	2.02
CV	0.87	0.79	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	—	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	31.82%
2	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	—	31.82%	27.27%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.64	+0.27
SD	1.63	1.36	2.21
CV	0.85	0.83	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	36.36%	40.91%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.18	+0.91
SD	1.41	0.80	1.72
CV	0.67	0.67	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	9.09%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	40.91%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.18	1.47	1.85
CV	0.72	0.90	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	27.27%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	45.45%	18.18%	22.73%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.50	+0.00
SD	1.01	1.01	1.38
CV	0.67	0.67	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	18.18%	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	36.36%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.45	+0.14
SD	1.26	1.50	1.96
CV	0.79	1.03	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	22.73%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.91	-0.55
SD	1.33	1.27	1.99
CV	0.97	0.66	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	4.55%	31.82%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	2.95	-1.68
SD	0.98	1.84	2.12
CV	0.77	0.62	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Helsingborg	1392	31	25.76	+5.24	93.0%	18	20	23	26	28	32	36
Elfsborg	1348	25	27.49	-2.49	24.0%	16	21	26	28	30	33	39
Goteborg	1325	22	24.06	-2.06	37.0%	15	18	21	24	27	30	34
Degerfors	1309	29	22.80	+6.20	98.0%	15	16	20	23	25	28	33
AIK Stockholm	1276	26	24.43	+1.57	69.0%	14	16	22	25	27	29	33
Norrkoping	1260	22	22.33	-0.33	54.0%	12	16	19	22	25	29	31
Malmo	1218	22	21.30	+0.70	62.0%	13	15	19	21	23	26	30
Landskrona	1197	25	20.66	+4.34	90.0%	9	14	18	21	23	27	30
Garda	1173	18	16.93	+1.07	69.0%	9	12	14	17	19	23	26
Brage	1164	16	20.83	-4.83	16.0%	11	14	18	21	24	28	31
Sandvikens IF	1156	18	20.12	-2.12	30.0%	12	14	18	20	22	27	30
Sleipner	1013	10	17.29	-7.29	5.0%	7	10	14	18	20	23	26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 19.5% * Strong Edge: 19.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+29.55%

Strong Edge

53.03%23.48%23.48%

Elo Value

Home Edge

177 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0105.81500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.64 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.60+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.23 * Runaway: 0.23 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.2

Open

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

Helsingborg, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Tight Race

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.95 * Some Luck: 2.95 to 4.43 * Lucky: 4.43 to 5.91 * Wild Swing: 5.91 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.82 * Close: 1.82 to 2.73 * Off: 2.73 to 3.64 * Way Off: 3.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.88 points

Some Luck

03.699

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

02.275

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

Degerfors

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

5.00%

Sleipner

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 66.5% * Clear Edge: 66.5% to 71.5% * Wide Edge: 71.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 83.5% * Clear Edge: 83.5% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 90.5% * Dominant: 90.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58.5% * Frequent: 58.5% to 62.5% * Very Frequent: 62.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Even

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 104.21

1.42

Moderate Separation

0.951.41.652.75

Interquartile Edge

69%

Clear Edge

50%63%71.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Strong Edge

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

54%

Some Drama

0%51%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.3 * Slight Separation: 0.3 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.53 * Strong Carryover: 0.53 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 22.5% * As Expected: 22.5% to 25% * Upset-Prone: 25% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 24% * Very Shaky: 24% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.30.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.08

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.23

Weak Carryover

00.380.530.691

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.25

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.63

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.093

Well Within Noise

00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Helsingborg	24.00%	15.00%	17.00%	13.00%	12.00%	7.00%	3.00%	6.00%	3.00%	—	—	—
Degerfors	5.00%	9.00%	14.00%	13.00%	14.00%	11.00%	4.00%	13.00%	7.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—
AIK Stockholm	11.00%	15.00%	20.00%	13.00%	13.00%	9.00%	6.00%	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Elfsborg	38.00%	25.00%	14.00%	7.00%	5.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
Landskrona	—	5.00%	5.00%	7.00%	5.00%	9.00%	20.00%	8.00%	12.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%
Goteborg	13.00%	15.00%	9.00%	8.00%	14.00%	9.00%	12.00%	8.00%	5.00%	5.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Norrkoping	5.00%	9.00%	5.00%	10.00%	13.00%	14.00%	8.00%	12.00%	8.00%	8.00%	4.00%	4.00%
Malmo	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	9.00%	11.00%	10.00%	14.00%	20.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	4.00%
Garda	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	—	3.00%	6.00%	2.00%	14.00%	16.00%	22.00%	33.00%
Sandvikens IF	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	3.00%	9.00%	10.00%	12.00%	18.00%	16.00%	11.00%	9.00%
Brage	2.00%	2.00%	6.00%	10.00%	7.00%	12.00%	5.00%	10.00%	12.00%	11.00%	17.00%	6.00%
Sleipner	—	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	9.00%	4.00%	10.00%	14.00%	19.00%	35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Helsingborg	100%	—
Elfsborg	99.00%	1.00%
Goteborg	98.00%	2.00%
AIK Stockholm	95.00%	5.00%
Degerfors	95.00%	5.00%
Norrkoping	92.00%	8.00%
Malmo	87.00%	13.00%
Landskrona	86.00%	14.00%
Sandvikens IF	80.00%	20.00%
Brage	77.00%	23.00%
Sleipner	46.00%	54.00%
Garda	45.00%	55.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1940-08-04	Sleipner	W 4-0	28.0	1236	1192	60.79%	24.24%	14.97%	+0.85	+18.3	2
1940-08-04	@ AIK Stockholm	L 0-4	28.0	1192	1236	14.97%	24.24%	60.79%	-0.85	-18.3	0
1940-08-04	Helsingborg	W 2-1	43.5	1180	1282	45.27%	24.90%	29.83%	+0.02	+8.5	2
1940-08-04	@ Degerfors	L 1-2	43.5	1282	1180	29.83%	24.90%	45.27%	-0.02	-8.5	0
1940-08-04	Sandvikens IF	L 1-4	45.3	1175	1221	52.03%	24.80%	23.18%	+0.34	-32.7	0
1940-08-04	@ Garda	W 4-1	45.3	1221	1175	23.18%	24.80%	52.03%	-0.34	+32.7	2
1940-08-04	Brage	W 2-1	41.7	1187	1242	51.04%	24.82%	24.14%	+0.29	+7.2	2
1940-08-04	@ Landskrona	L 1-2	41.7	1242	1187	24.14%	24.82%	51.04%	-0.29	-7.2	0
1940-08-04	Goteborg	D 3-3	61.6	1213	1282	49.38%	24.86%	25.75%	+0.21	-0.9	1
1940-08-04	@ Malmo	D 3-3	61.6	1282	1213	25.75%	24.86%	49.38%	-0.21	+0.9	1
1940-08-04	Elfsborg	L 2-6	45.5	1263	1359	46.03%	24.90%	29.07%	+0.05	-32.1	0
1940-08-04	@ Norrkoping	W 6-2	45.5	1359	1263	29.07%	24.90%	46.03%	-0.05	+32.1	2
1940-08-09	Norrkoping	D 2-2	56.8	1174	1231	50.84%	24.83%	24.33%	+0.28	-1.2	1
1940-08-09	@ Sleipner	D 2-2	56.8	1231	1174	24.33%	24.83%	50.84%	-0.28	+1.2	1
1940-08-11	Garda	W 5-1	31.4	1235	1142	64.56%	23.74%	11.70%	+1.13	+12.2	2
1940-08-11	@ Brage	L 1-5	31.4	1142	1235	11.70%	23.74%	64.56%	-1.13	-12.2	0
1940-08-11	Degerfors	L 1-3	53.0	1391	1189	71.06%	22.23%	6.71%	+1.75	-31.3	2
1940-08-11	@ Elfsborg	W 3-1	53.0	1189	1391	6.71%	22.23%	71.06%	-1.75	+31.3	4
1940-08-11	Landskrona	D 3-3	61.9	1283	1194	64.21%	23.80%	11.99%	+1.10	-2.1	2
1940-08-11	@ Goteborg	D 3-3	61.9	1194	1283	11.99%	23.80%	64.21%	-1.10	+2.1	3
1940-08-11	Malmo	W 3-2	43.8	1274	1212	62.27%	24.07%	13.66%	+0.95	+4.2	2
1940-08-11	@ Helsingborg	L 2-3	43.8	1212	1274	13.66%	24.07%	62.27%	-0.95	-4.2	1
1940-08-11	AIK Stockholm	L 1-4	46.9	1254	1254	56.75%	24.57%	18.68%	+0.59	-35.5	2
1940-08-11	@ Sandvikens IF	W 4-1	46.9	1254	1254	18.68%	24.57%	56.75%	-0.59	+35.5	4
1940-08-16	Garda	W 2-0	28.7	1280	1130	68.25%	23.01%	8.73%	+1.45	+5.8	4
1940-08-16	@ Goteborg	L 0-2	28.7	1130	1280	8.73%	23.01%	68.25%	-1.45	-5.9	0
1940-08-18	Landskrona	W 3-2	43.1	1290	1196	64.59%	23.74%	11.67%	+1.13	+3.7	6
1940-08-18	@ AIK Stockholm	L 2-3	43.1	1196	1290	11.67%	23.74%	64.59%	-1.13	-3.7	3
1940-08-18	Sandvikens IF	W 3-0	29.9	1220	1218	57.02%	24.56%	18.42%	+0.61	+16.8	6
1940-08-18	@ Degerfors	L 0-3	29.9	1218	1220	18.42%	24.56%	57.02%	-0.61	-16.8	2
1940-08-18	Elfsborg	L 0-2	42.0	1278	1360	47.85%	24.89%	27.27%	+0.14	-24.8	2
1940-08-18	@ Helsingborg	W 2-0	42.0	1360	1278	27.27%	24.89%	47.85%	-0.14	+24.8	4
1940-08-18	Sleipner	W 3-0	28.9	1207	1173	60.01%	24.32%	15.68%	+0.80	+14.6	3
1940-08-18	@ Malmo	L 0-3	28.9	1173	1207	15.68%	24.32%	60.01%	-0.80	-14.6	1
1940-08-18	Brage	W 3-0	30.5	1232	1247	55.33%	24.66%	20.01%	+0.51	+18.0	3
1940-08-18	@ Norrkoping	L 0-3	30.5	1247	1232	20.01%	24.66%	55.33%	-0.51	-18.0	2
1940-08-25	Degerfors	D 2-2	57.0	1229	1237	56.12%	24.61%	19.27%	+0.56	-1.7	3
1940-08-25	@ Brage	D 2-2	57.0	1237	1229	19.27%	24.61%	56.12%	-0.56	+1.7	7
1940-08-25	Goteborg	W 3-1	36.3	1385	1286	64.93%	23.68%	11.39%	+1.16	+6.5	6
1940-08-25	@ Elfsborg	L 1-3	36.3	1286	1385	11.39%	23.68%	64.93%	-1.16	-6.5	4
1940-08-25	AIK Stockholm	D 0-0	48.0	1124	1294	36.03%	24.78%	39.19%	-0.36	+0.2	1
1940-08-25	@ Garda	D 0-0	48.0	1294	1124	39.19%	24.78%	36.03%	+0.36	-0.2	7
1940-08-25	Norrkoping	D 1-1	51.5	1193	1250	50.81%	24.83%	24.36%	+0.28	-1.6	4
1940-08-25	@ Landskrona	D 1-1	51.5	1250	1193	24.36%	24.83%	50.81%	-0.28	+1.6	4
1940-08-25	Malmo	D 1-1	51.5	1201	1222	54.77%	24.69%	20.54%	+0.48	-2.1	3
1940-08-25	@ Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	51.5	1222	1201	20.54%	24.69%	54.77%	-0.48	+2.1	4
1940-08-25	Helsingborg	L 1-5	42.2	1158	1253	46.18%	24.90%	28.92%	+0.06	-37.9	1
1940-08-25	@ Sleipner	W 5-1	42.2	1253	1158	28.92%	24.90%	46.18%	-0.06	+37.9	4
1940-09-01	Norrkoping	W 2-0	32.7	1238	1251	55.55%	24.64%	19.80%	+0.53	+12.3	9
1940-09-01	@ Degerfors	L 0-2	32.7	1251	1238	19.80%	24.64%	55.55%	-0.53	-12.3	4
1940-09-01	Landskrona	L 2-3	60.8	1391	1191	70.92%	22.27%	6.80%	+1.73	-17.1	6
1940-09-01	@ Elfsborg	W 3-2	60.8	1191	1391	6.80%	22.27%	70.92%	-1.73	+17.1	6
1940-09-01	Sandvikens IF	L 2-4	55.5	1280	1199	63.66%	23.88%	12.46%	+1.06	-25.1	4
1940-09-01	@ Goteborg	W 4-2	55.5	1199	1280	12.46%	23.88%	63.66%	-1.06	+25.1	5
1940-09-01	Garda	W 1-0	31.6	1291	1124	69.19%	22.78%	8.03%	+1.55	+2.9	6
1940-09-01	@ Helsingborg	L 0-1	31.6	1124	1291	8.03%	22.78%	69.19%	-1.55	-2.9	1
1940-09-01	AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	39.9	1224	1293	49.37%	24.86%	25.77%	+0.21	+13.2	6
1940-09-01	@ Malmo	L 1-3	39.9	1293	1224	25.77%	24.86%	49.37%	-0.21	-13.2	7
1940-09-01	Brage	D 1-1	51.4	1120	1228	44.63%	24.90%	30.47%	-0.01	-0.8	2
1940-09-01	@ Sleipner	D 1-1	51.4	1228	1120	30.47%	24.90%	44.63%	+0.01	+0.8	4
1940-09-08	Garda	W 2-1	36.8	1251	1121	66.97%	23.30%	9.73%	+1.33	+3.2	11
1940-09-08	@ Degerfors	L 1-2	36.8	1121	1251	9.73%	23.30%	66.97%	-1.33	-3.2	1
1940-09-08	Sandvikens IF	W 4-1	32.5	1374	1224	68.20%	23.03%	8.77%	+1.45	+7.2	8
1940-09-08	@ Elfsborg	L 1-4	32.5	1224	1374	8.77%	23.03%	68.20%	-1.45	-7.2	5
1940-09-08	Sleipner	W 2-0	28.9	1255	1119	67.33%	23.22%	9.45%	+1.37	+6.3	6
1940-09-08	@ Goteborg	L 0-2	28.9	1119	1255	9.45%	23.22%	67.33%	-1.37	-6.3	2
1940-09-08	Brage	W 3-2	43.8	1294	1228	62.55%	24.03%	13.42%	+0.97	+4.2	8
1940-09-08	@ Helsingborg	L 2-3	43.8	1228	1294	13.42%	24.03%	62.55%	-0.97	-4.2	4
1940-09-08	Landskrona	W 3-1	36.7	1237	1208	59.51%	24.36%	16.13%	+0.76	+8.9	8
1940-09-08	@ Malmo	L 1-3	36.7	1208	1237	16.13%	24.36%	59.51%	-0.76	-8.9	6
1940-09-08	AIK Stockholm	D 3-3	61.7	1239	1280	52.60%	24.78%	22.62%	+0.37	-1.1	5
1940-09-08	@ Norrkoping	D 3-3	61.7	1280	1239	22.62%	24.78%	52.60%	-0.37	+1.1	8
1940-09-15	Goteborg	W 3-0	29.7	1281	1261	58.75%	24.43%	16.82%	+0.71	+15.5	10
1940-09-15	@ AIK Stockholm	L 0-3	29.7	1261	1281	16.82%	24.43%	58.75%	-0.71	-15.5	6
1940-09-15	Malmo	W 2-0	32.9	1224	1246	54.64%	24.69%	20.67%	+0.47	+12.7	6
1940-09-15	@ Brage	L 0-2	32.9	1246	1224	20.67%	24.69%	54.64%	-0.47	-12.7	8
1940-09-15	Norrkoping	L 0-2	39.4	1118	1238	42.93%	24.90%	32.18%	-0.08	-22.6	1
1940-09-15	@ Garda	W 2-0	39.4	1238	1118	32.18%	24.90%	42.93%	+0.08	+22.6	7
1940-09-15	Degerfors	W 3-2	47.0	1199	1254	51.11%	24.82%	24.07%	+0.29	+6.8	8
1940-09-15	@ Landskrona	L 2-3	47.0	1254	1199	24.07%	24.82%	51.11%	-0.29	-6.8	11
1940-09-15	Helsingborg	L 2-3	54.4	1217	1298	47.93%	24.88%	27.19%	+0.14	-11.8	5
1940-09-15	@ Sandvikens IF	W 3-2	54.4	1298	1217	27.19%	24.88%	47.93%	-0.14	+11.8	10
1940-09-15	Elfsborg	L 1-3	39.0	1113	1381	23.80%	24.12%	52.08%	-0.92	-12.2	2
1940-09-15	@ Sleipner	W 3-1	39.0	1381	1113	52.08%	24.12%	23.80%	+0.92	+12.2	10
1940-09-22	AIK Stockholm	L 1-4	45.6	1247	1297	51.63%	24.81%	23.56%	+0.32	-32.4	11
1940-09-22	@ Degerfors	W 4-1	45.6	1297	1247	23.56%	24.81%	51.63%	-0.32	+32.4	12
1940-09-22	Norrkoping	L 1-3	48.7	1245	1261	55.34%	24.66%	20.00%	+0.51	-24.5	6
1940-09-22	@ Goteborg	W 3-1	48.7	1261	1245	20.00%	24.66%	55.34%	-0.51	+24.5	9
1940-09-22	Garda	L 2-3	59.4	1233	1095	67.50%	23.19%	9.31%	+1.38	-16.3	8
1940-09-22	@ Malmo	W 3-2	59.4	1095	1233	9.31%	23.19%	67.50%	-1.38	+16.3	3
1940-09-22	Sandvikens IF	W 2-0	35.5	1101	1205	44.99%	24.90%	30.11%	+0.01	+17.2	4
1940-09-22	@ Sleipner	L 0-2	35.5	1205	1101	30.11%	24.90%	44.99%	-0.01	-17.2	5
1940-09-29	Degerfors	L 1-2	54.2	1329	1215	66.03%	23.49%	10.48%	+1.25	-16.8	12
1940-09-29	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-1	54.2	1215	1329	10.48%	23.49%	66.03%	-1.25	+16.8	13
1940-09-29	Elfsborg	D 2-2	57.7	1237	1394	37.88%	24.82%	37.30%	-0.29	-0.0	7
1940-09-29	@ Brage	D 2-2	57.7	1394	1237	37.30%	24.82%	37.88%	+0.29	+0.0	11
1940-09-29	Malmo	W 3-1	40.9	1112	1217	44.86%	24.90%	30.24%	+0.00	+14.9	5
1940-09-29	@ Garda	L 1-3	40.9	1217	1112	30.24%	24.90%	44.86%	+0.00	-14.9	8
1940-09-29	Helsingborg	D 2-2	57.0	1206	1310	45.08%	24.90%	30.02%	+0.01	-0.7	9
1940-09-29	@ Landskrona	D 2-2	57.0	1310	1206	30.02%	24.90%	45.08%	-0.01	+0.7	11
1940-09-29	Goteborg	L 0-2	45.3	1285	1221	62.42%	24.05%	13.53%	+0.96	-31.8	9
1940-09-29	@ Norrkoping	W 2-0	45.3	1221	1285	13.53%	24.05%	62.42%	-0.96	+31.8	8
1940-09-29	Sleipner	L 0-1	48.3	1188	1118	62.88%	23.99%	13.13%	+1.00	-17.0	5
1940-09-29	@ Sandvikens IF	W 1-0	48.3	1118	1188	13.13%	23.99%	62.88%	-1.00	+17.0	6
1940-10-13	Garda	W 5-2	34.0	1394	1127	74.02%	21.13%	4.85%	+2.11	+3.4	13
1940-10-13	@ Elfsborg	L 2-5	34.0	1127	1394	4.85%	21.13%	74.02%	-2.11	-3.4	5
1940-10-13	Degerfors	W 1-0	34.9	1253	1231	58.84%	24.42%	16.74%	+0.72	+5.6	10
1940-10-13	@ Goteborg	L 0-1	34.9	1231	1253	16.74%	24.42%	58.84%	-0.72	-5.7	13
1940-10-13	AIK Stockholm	W 3-2	46.1	1311	1313	56.68%	24.58%	18.75%	+0.59	+5.6	13
1940-10-13	@ Helsingborg	L 2-3	46.1	1313	1311	18.75%	24.58%	56.68%	-0.59	-5.6	12
1940-10-13	Norrkoping	W 3-2	46.9	1202	1253	51.49%	24.81%	23.70%	+0.31	+6.8	10
1940-10-13	@ Malmo	L 2-3	46.9	1253	1202	23.70%	24.81%	51.49%	-0.31	-6.7	9
1940-10-13	Brage	W 4-2	44.2	1171	1237	49.80%	24.85%	25.35%	+0.23	+11.6	7
1940-10-13	@ Sandvikens IF	L 2-4	44.2	1237	1171	25.35%	24.85%	49.80%	-0.23	-11.6	7
1940-10-13	Landskrona	D 2-2	56.7	1135	1206	49.22%	24.87%	25.92%	+0.20	-1.0	7
1940-10-13	@ Sleipner	D 2-2	56.7	1206	1135	25.92%	24.87%	49.22%	-0.20	+1.0	10
1940-10-20	Goteborg	W 2-1	41.1	1225	1258	53.46%	24.74%	21.79%	+0.41	+6.6	9
1940-10-20	@ Brage	L 1-2	41.1	1258	1225	21.79%	24.74%	53.46%	-0.41	-6.6	10
1940-10-20	Malmo	D 1-1	51.6	1226	1209	58.43%	24.45%	17.12%	+0.69	-2.6	14
1940-10-20	@ Degerfors	D 1-1	51.6	1209	1226	17.12%	24.45%	58.43%	-0.69	+2.6	11
1940-10-20	Sleipner	W 2-1	40.0	1123	1134	55.78%	24.63%	19.59%	+0.54	+6.1	7
1940-10-20	@ Garda	L 1-2	40.0	1134	1123	19.59%	24.63%	55.78%	-0.54	-6.1	7
1940-10-27	AIK Stockholm	W 3-2	48.0	1232	1307	48.68%	24.87%	26.45%	+0.17	+7.4	11
1940-10-27	@ Brage	L 2-3	48.0	1307	1232	26.45%	24.87%	48.68%	-0.17	-7.4	12
1940-10-27	Malmo	W 2-1	36.7	1397	1212	70.17%	22.50%	7.32%	+1.65	+2.5	15
1940-10-27	@ Elfsborg	L 1-2	36.7	1212	1397	7.32%	22.50%	70.17%	-1.65	-2.5	11
1940-10-27	Landskrona	L 0-1	44.2	1129	1207	48.40%	24.88%	26.73%	+0.16	-13.2	7
1940-10-27	@ Garda	W 1-0	44.2	1207	1129	26.73%	24.88%	48.40%	-0.16	+13.3	12
1940-10-27	Goteborg	W 3-1	36.2	1316	1252	62.45%	24.05%	13.51%	+0.96	+7.6	15
1940-10-27	@ Helsingborg	L 1-3	36.2	1252	1316	13.51%	24.05%	62.45%	-0.96	-7.6	10
1940-10-27	Norrkoping	W 3-2	47.3	1183	1247	50.03%	24.85%	25.12%	+0.24	+7.1	9
1940-10-27	@ Sandvikens IF	L 2-3	47.3	1247	1183	25.12%	24.85%	50.03%	-0.24	-7.1	9
1940-10-27	Degerfors	D 3-3	61.3	1128	1223	46.17%	24.90%	28.93%	+0.06	-0.6	8
1940-10-27	@ Sleipner	D 3-3	61.3	1223	1128	28.93%	24.90%	46.17%	-0.06	+0.6	15
1940-11-03	Brage	W 3-1	36.2	1300	1239	62.12%	24.09%	13.79%	+0.94	+7.8	14
1940-11-03	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	36.2	1239	1300	13.79%	24.09%	62.12%	-0.94	-7.8	11
1940-11-03	Sleipner	W 3-1	34.9	1224	1127	64.80%	23.70%	11.50%	+1.15	+6.6	17
1940-11-03	@ Degerfors	L 1-3	34.9	1127	1224	11.50%	23.70%	64.80%	-1.15	-6.6	8
1940-11-03	Helsingborg	L 1-2	49.3	1244	1324	48.11%	24.88%	27.01%	+0.15	-12.4	10
1940-11-03	@ Goteborg	W 2-1	49.3	1324	1244	27.01%	24.88%	48.11%	-0.15	+12.4	17
1940-11-03	Garda	W 1-0	32.6	1220	1116	65.31%	23.62%	11.07%	+1.19	+3.9	14
1940-11-03	@ Landskrona	L 0-1	32.6	1116	1220	11.07%	23.62%	65.31%	-1.19	-3.9	7
1940-11-03	Elfsborg	W 1-0	43.1	1209	1400	33.21%	24.69%	42.10%	-0.48	+11.8	13
1940-11-03	@ Malmo	L 0-1	43.1	1400	1209	42.10%	24.69%	33.21%	+0.48	-11.8	15
1940-11-03	Sandvikens IF	W 1-0	34.0	1239	1190	61.26%	24.19%	14.55%	+0.88	+5.0	11
1940-11-03	@ Norrkoping	L 0-1	34.0	1190	1239	14.55%	24.19%	61.26%	-0.88	-5.0	9
1940-11-10	Elfsborg	W 3-1	41.7	1307	1388	48.03%	24.88%	27.09%	+0.14	+13.7	16
1940-11-10	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	41.7	1388	1307	27.09%	24.88%	48.03%	-0.14	-13.7	15
1940-11-10	Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	51.6	1224	1185	60.37%	24.28%	15.35%	+0.82	-2.9	15
1940-11-10	@ Landskrona	D 1-1	51.6	1185	1224	15.35%	24.28%	60.37%	-0.82	+2.9	10
1940-11-10	Helsingborg	W 2-0	35.8	1244	1336	46.60%	24.90%	28.50%	+0.08	+16.5	13
1940-11-10	@ Norrkoping	L 0-2	35.8	1336	1244	28.50%	24.90%	46.60%	-0.08	-16.5	17
1941-04-06	Brage	W 5-1	31.3	1374	1231	67.77%	23.13%	9.10%	+1.41	+9.6	17
1941-04-06	@ Elfsborg	L 1-5	31.3	1231	1374	9.10%	23.13%	67.77%	-1.41	-9.6	11
1941-04-14	Sleipner	L 2-3	61.0	1384	1121	73.85%	21.20%	4.95%	+2.09	-17.7	17
1941-04-14	@ Elfsborg	W 3-2	61.0	1121	1384	4.95%	21.20%	73.85%	-2.09	+17.7	10
1941-04-14	AIK Stockholm	W 2-0	35.5	1232	1321	46.92%	24.89%	28.18%	+0.09	+16.3	12
1941-04-14	@ Goteborg	L 0-2	35.5	1321	1232	28.18%	24.89%	46.92%	-0.09	-16.3	16
1941-04-14	Sandvikens IF	W 4-0	26.3	1320	1188	67.14%	23.27%	9.60%	+1.35	+12.2	19
1941-04-14	@ Helsingborg	L 0-4	26.3	1188	1320	9.60%	23.27%	67.14%	-1.35	-12.2	10
1941-04-14	Brage	W 2-1	40.0	1221	1222	56.75%	24.57%	18.67%	+0.59	+5.8	15
1941-04-14	@ Malmo	L 1-2	40.0	1222	1221	18.67%	24.57%	56.75%	-0.59	-5.8	11
1941-04-14	Garda	W 5-1	30.4	1261	1112	68.14%	23.04%	8.82%	+1.44	+9.3	15
1941-04-14	@ Norrkoping	L 1-5	30.4	1112	1261	8.82%	23.04%	68.14%	-1.44	-9.3	7
1941-04-20	Norrkoping	D 0-0	48.7	1305	1270	59.99%	24.32%	15.69%	+0.79	-3.1	17
1941-04-20	@ AIK Stockholm	D 0-0	48.7	1270	1305	15.69%	24.32%	59.99%	-0.79	+3.1	16
1941-04-20	Degerfors	W 4-0	33.5	1103	1230	41.91%	24.89%	33.20%	-0.12	+35.1	9
1941-04-20	@ Garda	L 0-4	33.5	1230	1103	33.20%	24.89%	41.91%	+0.12	-35.1	17
1941-04-20	Malmo	W 2-0	32.4	1221	1227	56.28%	24.60%	19.12%	+0.57	+11.9	17
1941-04-20	@ Landskrona	L 0-2	32.4	1227	1221	19.12%	24.60%	56.28%	-0.57	-11.9	15
1941-04-20	Elfsborg	W 2-0	39.6	1176	1366	33.21%	24.69%	42.10%	-0.48	+22.2	12
1941-04-20	@ Sandvikens IF	L 0-2	39.6	1366	1176	42.10%	24.69%	33.21%	+0.48	-22.2	17
1941-04-20	Goteborg	L 0-7	39.1	1138	1248	44.32%	24.90%	30.77%	-0.02	-74.5	10
1941-04-20	@ Sleipner	W 7-0	39.1	1248	1138	30.77%	24.90%	44.32%	+0.02	+74.5	14
1941-04-27	Landskrona	L 1-2	51.0	1216	1233	55.17%	24.66%	20.16%	+0.50	-14.1	11
1941-04-27	@ Brage	W 2-1	51.0	1233	1216	20.16%	24.66%	55.17%	-0.50	+14.1	19
1941-04-27	Norrkoping	W 3-1	36.4	1344	1273	62.90%	23.99%	13.11%	+1.00	+7.4	19
1941-04-27	@ Elfsborg	L 1-3	36.4	1273	1344	13.11%	23.99%	62.90%	-1.00	-7.4	16
1941-04-27	Malmo	D 0-0	48.7	1323	1215	65.57%	23.57%	10.86%	+1.21	-4.0	15
1941-04-27	@ Goteborg	D 0-0	48.7	1215	1323	10.86%	23.57%	65.57%	-1.21	+4.0	16
1941-04-27	Degerfors	L 0-1	49.8	1332	1195	67.42%	23.20%	9.38%	+1.37	-18.2	19
1941-04-27	@ Helsingborg	W 1-0	49.8	1195	1332	9.38%	23.20%	67.42%	-1.37	+18.2	19
1941-04-27	Garda	D 1-1	51.6	1198	1138	62.08%	24.09%	13.82%	+0.94	-3.1	13
1941-04-27	@ Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	51.6	1138	1198	13.82%	24.09%	62.08%	-0.94	+3.1	10
1941-04-27	AIK Stockholm	L 2-3	47.7	1064	1302	27.25%	24.38%	48.37%	-0.75	-7.5	10
1941-04-27	@ Sleipner	W 3-2	47.7	1302	1064	48.37%	24.38%	27.25%	+0.75	+7.5	19
1941-05-01	Landskrona	W 6-0	31.6	1214	1247	53.44%	24.74%	21.82%	+0.41	+36.9	21
1941-05-01	@ Degerfors	L 0-6	31.6	1247	1214	21.82%	24.74%	53.44%	-0.41	-36.9	19
1941-05-01	Helsingborg	L 0-2	40.1	1202	1314	44.02%	24.90%	31.08%	-0.03	-23.1	11
1941-05-01	@ Brage	W 2-0	40.1	1314	1202	31.08%	24.90%	44.02%	+0.03	+23.0	21
1941-05-01	Sleipner	W 2-0	27.6	1266	1056	71.39%	22.12%	6.48%	+1.79	+4.3	18
1941-05-01	@ Norrkoping	L 0-2	27.6	1056	1266	6.48%	22.12%	71.39%	-1.79	-4.4	10
1941-05-04	Sandvikens IF	W 2-1	37.4	1309	1195	66.01%	23.49%	10.50%	+1.25	+3.5	21
1941-05-04	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-2	37.4	1195	1309	10.50%	23.49%	66.01%	-1.25	-3.5	13
1941-05-04	Elfsborg	D 1-1	52.2	1250	1351	45.47%	24.90%	29.63%	+0.03	-0.9	22
1941-05-04	@ Degerfors	D 1-1	52.2	1351	1250	29.63%	24.90%	45.47%	-0.03	+0.9	20
1941-05-04	Brage	W 3-1	38.5	1141	1179	52.95%	24.76%	22.28%	+0.38	+11.7	12
1941-05-04	@ Garda	L 1-3	38.5	1179	1141	22.28%	24.76%	52.95%	-0.38	-11.7	11
1941-05-04	Goteborg	D 0-0	48.3	1210	1319	44.46%	24.90%	30.63%	-0.02	-0.9	20
1941-05-04	@ Landskrona	D 0-0	48.3	1319	1210	30.63%	24.90%	44.46%	+0.02	+0.9	16
1941-05-04	Helsingborg	D 1-1	51.9	1219	1337	43.20%	24.90%	31.90%	-0.07	-0.6	17
1941-05-04	@ Malmo	D 1-1	51.9	1337	1219	31.90%	24.90%	43.20%	+0.07	+0.6	22
1941-05-09	Goteborg	D 2-2	56.9	1153	1319	36.45%	24.79%	38.75%	-0.35	+0.1	13
1941-05-09	@ Garda	D 2-2	56.9	1319	1153	38.75%	24.79%	36.45%	+0.35	-0.1	17
1941-05-11	Norrkoping	W 2-0	35.7	1167	1270	45.16%	24.90%	29.94%	+0.01	+17.1	13
1941-05-11	@ Brage	L 0-2	35.7	1270	1167	29.94%	24.90%	45.16%	-0.01	-17.1	18
1941-05-11	Helsingborg	L 0-3	43.3	1352	1338	58.23%	24.47%	17.31%	+0.68	-43.1	20
1941-05-11	@ Elfsborg	W 3-0	43.3	1338	1352	17.31%	24.47%	58.23%	-0.68	+43.1	24
1941-05-11	AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	51.8	1209	1313	45.12%	24.90%	29.97%	+0.01	-0.9	21
1941-05-11	@ Landskrona	D 1-1	51.8	1313	1209	29.97%	24.90%	45.12%	-0.01	+0.9	22
1941-05-11	Degerfors	L 0-4	38.9	1191	1250	50.65%	24.83%	24.51%	+0.27	-49.4	13
1941-05-11	@ Sandvikens IF	W 4-0	38.9	1250	1191	24.51%	24.83%	50.65%	-0.27	+49.4	24
1941-05-11	Malmo	L 1-2	45.2	1052	1218	36.55%	24.79%	38.66%	-0.34	-9.9	10
1941-05-11	@ Sleipner	W 2-1	45.2	1218	1052	38.66%	24.79%	36.55%	+0.34	+9.9	19
1941-05-14	Landskrona	D 1-1	52.7	1381	1208	69.47%	22.70%	7.83%	+1.58	-4.1	25
1941-05-14	@ Helsingborg	D 1-1	52.7	1208	1381	7.83%	22.70%	69.47%	-1.58	+4.1	22
1941-05-18	Garda	W 2-1	36.4	1313	1153	68.82%	22.87%	8.31%	+1.51	+2.8	24
1941-05-18	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-2	36.4	1153	1313	8.31%	22.87%	68.82%	-1.51	-2.8	13
1941-05-18	Brage	W 6-0	27.8	1299	1184	66.02%	23.49%	10.49%	+1.25	+19.4	26
1941-05-18	@ Degerfors	L 0-6	27.8	1184	1299	10.49%	23.49%	66.02%	-1.25	-19.4	13
1941-05-18	Elfsborg	W 3-2	45.8	1319	1309	57.83%	24.50%	17.68%	+0.66	+5.3	19
1941-05-18	@ Goteborg	L 2-3	45.8	1309	1319	17.68%	24.50%	57.83%	-0.66	-5.3	20
1941-05-18	Sleipner	W 4-1	29.3	1377	1042	76.69%	19.85%	3.45%	+2.49	+2.8	27
1941-05-18	@ Helsingborg	L 1-4	29.3	1042	1377	3.45%	19.85%	76.69%	-2.49	-2.8	10
1941-05-18	Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	51.7	1228	1142	64.08%	23.82%	12.10%	+1.09	-3.4	20
1941-05-18	@ Malmo	D 1-1	51.7	1142	1228	12.10%	23.82%	64.08%	-1.09	+3.4	14
1941-05-18	Landskrona	D 1-1	51.8	1253	1212	60.54%	24.26%	15.20%	+0.83	-2.9	19
1941-05-18	@ Norrkoping	D 1-1	51.8	1212	1253	15.20%	24.26%	60.54%	-0.83	+2.9	23
1941-05-22	Helsingborg	L 1-3	48.6	1316	1379	50.11%	24.85%	25.04%	+0.24	-22.3	24
1941-05-22	@ AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	48.6	1379	1316	25.04%	24.85%	50.11%	-0.24	+22.3	29
1941-05-22	Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	51.5	1165	1145	58.69%	24.43%	16.88%	+0.71	-2.6	14
1941-05-22	@ Brage	D 1-1	51.5	1145	1165	16.88%	24.43%	58.69%	-0.71	+2.6	15
1941-05-22	Goteborg	W 2-1	41.1	1318	1325	56.23%	24.61%	19.17%	+0.56	+6.0	28
1941-05-22	@ Degerfors	L 1-2	41.1	1325	1318	19.17%	24.61%	56.23%	-0.56	-6.0	19
1941-05-22	Elfsborg	D 1-1	51.6	1150	1304	38.30%	24.83%	36.87%	-0.27	-0.1	14
1941-05-22	@ Garda	D 1-1	51.6	1304	1150	36.87%	24.83%	38.30%	+0.27	+0.1	21
1941-05-22	Sleipner	W 5-1	29.8	1215	1039	69.66%	22.65%	7.69%	+1.60	+8.2	25
1941-05-22	@ Landskrona	L 1-5	29.8	1039	1215	7.69%	22.65%	69.66%	-1.60	-8.2	10
1941-05-22	Malmo	D 1-1	51.7	1250	1225	59.22%	24.39%	16.39%	+0.74	-2.7	20
1941-05-22	@ Norrkoping	D 1-1	51.7	1225	1250	16.39%	24.39%	59.22%	-0.74	+2.7	21
1941-05-25	AIK Stockholm	W 5-0	30.0	1304	1294	57.79%	24.50%	17.71%	+0.66	+26.1	23
1941-05-25	@ Elfsborg	L 0-5	30.0	1294	1304	17.71%	24.50%	57.79%	-0.66	-26.1	24
1941-05-25	Brage	W 5-2	35.4	1319	1162	68.58%	22.93%	8.49%	+1.49	+6.0	21
1941-05-25	@ Goteborg	L 2-5	35.4	1162	1319	8.49%	22.93%	68.58%	-1.49	-6.0	14
1941-05-25	Norrkoping	W 1-0	32.9	1402	1248	68.44%	22.97%	8.59%	+1.47	+3.0	31
1941-05-25	@ Helsingborg	L 0-1	32.9	1248	1402	8.59%	22.97%	68.44%	-1.47	-3.1	20
1941-05-25	Degerfors	D 1-1	51.9	1227	1324	45.97%	24.90%	29.12%	+0.05	-1.0	22
1941-05-25	@ Malmo	D 1-1	51.9	1324	1227	29.12%	24.90%	45.97%	-0.05	+1.0	29
1941-05-25	Landskrona	W 1-0	37.7	1148	1223	48.61%	24.88%	26.52%	+0.17	+8.2	17
1941-05-25	@ Sandvikens IF	L 0-1	37.7	1223	1148	26.52%	24.88%	48.61%	-0.17	-8.2	25
1941-05-25	Garda	L 2-3	52.5	1031	1150	43.12%	24.90%	31.98%	-0.07	-10.7	10
1941-05-25	@ Sleipner	W 3-2	52.5	1150	1031	31.98%	24.90%	43.12%	+0.07	+10.7	16
1941-06-02	Malmo	W 3-1	36.5	1268	1226	60.58%	24.26%	15.16%	+0.83	+8.5	26
1941-06-02	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	36.5	1226	1268	15.16%	24.26%	60.58%	-0.83	-8.5	22
1941-06-02	Sleipner	W 7-3	34.0	1156	1020	67.36%	23.22%	9.43%	+1.37	+7.7	16
1941-06-02	@ Brage	L 3-7	34.0	1020	1156	9.43%	23.22%	67.36%	-1.37	-7.7	10
1941-06-02	Helsingborg	W 2-1	49.5	1161	1405	26.50%	24.33%	49.16%	-0.78	+12.6	18
1941-06-02	@ Garda	L 1-2	49.5	1405	1161	49.16%	24.33%	26.50%	+0.78	-12.6	31
1941-06-02	Elfsborg	L 2-4	50.1	1215	1330	43.64%	24.90%	31.45%	-0.05	-17.7	25
1941-06-02	@ Landskrona	W 4-2	50.1	1330	1215	31.45%	24.90%	43.64%	+0.05	+17.7	25
1941-06-02	Degerfors	W 2-0	35.3	1245	1325	48.00%	24.88%	27.12%	+0.14	+15.8	22
1941-06-02	@ Norrkoping	L 0-2	35.3	1325	1245	27.12%	24.88%	48.00%	-0.14	-15.8	29
1941-06-02	Goteborg	D 2-2	56.9	1156	1325	36.18%	24.78%	39.03%	-0.36	+0.1	18
1941-06-02	@ Sandvikens IF	D 2-2	56.9	1325	1156	39.03%	24.78%	36.18%	+0.36	-0.1	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1941-04-14	4.95%	Sleipner	1121	3	@ Elfsborg	1384	2
2	1940-08-11	6.71%	Degerfors	1189	3	@ Elfsborg	1391	1
3	1940-09-01	6.80%	Landskrona	1191	3	@ Elfsborg	1391	2
4	1940-09-22	9.31%	Garda	1095	3	@ Malmo	1233	2
5	1941-04-27	9.38%	Degerfors	1195	1	@ Helsingborg	1332	0
6	1940-09-29	10.48%	Degerfors	1215	2	@ AIK Stockholm	1329	1
7	1940-09-01	12.46%	Sandvikens IF	1199	4	@ Goteborg	1280	2
8	1940-09-29	13.13%	Sleipner	1118	1	@ Sandvikens IF	1188	0
9	1940-09-29	13.53%	Goteborg	1221	2	@ Norrkoping	1285	0
10	1941-05-11	17.31%	Helsingborg	1338	3	@ Elfsborg	1352	0
11	1940-08-11	18.68%	AIK Stockholm	1254	4	@ Sandvikens IF	1254	1
12	1940-09-22	20.00%	Norrkoping	1261	3	@ Goteborg	1245	1
13	1941-04-27	20.16%	Landskrona	1233	2	@ Brage	1216	1
14	1940-08-04	23.18%	Sandvikens IF	1221	4	@ Garda	1175	1
15	1940-09-22	23.56%	AIK Stockholm	1297	4	@ Degerfors	1247	1
16	1941-05-11	24.51%	Degerfors	1250	4	@ Sandvikens IF	1191	0
17	1941-05-22	25.04%	Helsingborg	1379	3	@ AIK Stockholm	1316	1
18	1941-06-02	26.50%	@ Garda	1161	2	Helsingborg	1405	1
19	1940-10-27	26.73%	Landskrona	1207	1	@ Garda	1129	0
20	1940-11-03	27.01%	Helsingborg	1324	2	@ Goteborg	1244	1
21	1940-09-15	27.19%	Helsingborg	1298	3	@ Sandvikens IF	1217	2
22	1940-08-18	27.27%	Elfsborg	1360	2	@ Helsingborg	1278	0
23	1940-08-25	28.92%	Helsingborg	1253	5	@ Sleipner	1158	1
24	1940-08-04	29.07%	Elfsborg	1359	6	@ Norrkoping	1263	2
25	1941-04-20	30.77%	Goteborg	1248	7	@ Sleipner	1138	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1941-04-20	74.51	Goteborg	7	1248	30.77%	@ Sleipner	0	1138	44.32%	24.90%
2	1941-05-11	49.40	Degerfors	4	1250	24.51%	@ Sandvikens IF	0	1191	50.65%	24.83%
3	1941-05-11	43.13	Helsingborg	3	1338	17.31%	@ Elfsborg	0	1352	58.23%	24.47%
4	1940-08-25	37.94	Helsingborg	5	1253	28.92%	@ Sleipner	1	1158	46.18%	24.90%
5	1941-05-01	36.93	@ Degerfors	6	1214	53.44%	Landskrona	0	1247	21.82%	24.74%
6	1940-08-11	35.47	AIK Stockholm	4	1254	18.68%	@ Sandvikens IF	1	1254	56.75%	24.57%
7	1941-04-20	35.13	@ Garda	4	1103	41.91%	Degerfors	0	1230	33.20%	24.89%
8	1940-08-04	32.68	Sandvikens IF	4	1221	23.18%	@ Garda	1	1175	52.03%	24.80%
9	1940-09-22	32.44	AIK Stockholm	4	1297	23.56%	@ Degerfors	1	1247	51.63%	24.81%
10	1940-08-04	32.11	Elfsborg	6	1359	29.07%	@ Norrkoping	2	1263	46.03%	24.90%
11	1940-09-29	31.83	Goteborg	2	1221	13.53%	@ Norrkoping	0	1285	62.42%	24.05%
12	1940-08-11	31.30	Degerfors	3	1189	6.71%	@ Elfsborg	1	1391	71.06%	22.23%
13	1941-05-25	26.11	@ Elfsborg	5	1304	57.79%	AIK Stockholm	0	1294	17.71%	24.50%
14	1940-09-01	25.15	Sandvikens IF	4	1199	12.46%	@ Goteborg	2	1280	63.66%	23.88%
15	1940-08-18	24.75	Elfsborg	2	1360	27.27%	@ Helsingborg	0	1278	47.85%	24.89%
16	1940-09-22	24.49	Norrkoping	3	1261	20.00%	@ Goteborg	1	1245	55.34%	24.66%
17	1941-05-01	23.05	Helsingborg	2	1314	31.08%	@ Brage	0	1202	44.02%	24.90%
18	1940-09-15	22.57	Norrkoping	2	1238	32.18%	@ Garda	0	1118	42.93%	24.90%
19	1941-05-22	22.33	Helsingborg	3	1379	25.04%	@ AIK Stockholm	1	1316	50.11%	24.85%
20	1941-04-20	22.17	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1176	33.21%	Elfsborg	0	1366	42.10%	24.69%
21	1941-05-18	19.38	@ Degerfors	6	1299	66.02%	Brage	0	1184	10.49%	23.49%
22	1940-08-04	18.32	@ AIK Stockholm	4	1236	60.79%	Sleipner	0	1192	14.97%	24.24%
23	1941-04-27	18.23	Degerfors	1	1195	9.38%	@ Helsingborg	0	1332	67.42%	23.20%
24	1940-08-18	17.98	@ Norrkoping	3	1232	55.33%	Brage	0	1247	20.01%	24.66%
25	1941-06-02	17.73	Elfsborg	4	1330	31.45%	@ Landskrona	2	1215	43.64%	24.90%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1940-08-11	61.9	@ Goteborg	3	1283	64.21%	Landskrona	3	1194	11.99%	23.80%
2	1940-09-08	61.7	@ Norrkoping	3	1239	52.60%	AIK Stockholm	3	1280	22.62%	24.78%
3	1940-08-04	61.6	@ Malmo	3	1213	49.38%	Goteborg	3	1282	25.75%	24.86%
4	1940-10-27	61.3	@ Sleipner	3	1128	46.17%	Degerfors	3	1223	28.93%	24.90%
5	1941-04-14	61.0	Sleipner	3	1121	4.95%	@ Elfsborg	2	1384	73.85%	21.20%
6	1940-09-01	60.8	Landskrona	3	1191	6.80%	@ Elfsborg	2	1391	70.92%	22.27%
7	1940-09-22	59.4	Garda	3	1095	9.31%	@ Malmo	2	1233	67.50%	23.19%
8	1940-09-29	57.7	@ Brage	2	1237	37.88%	Elfsborg	2	1394	37.30%	24.82%
9	1940-08-25	57.0	@ Brage	2	1229	56.12%	Degerfors	2	1237	19.27%	24.61%
10	1940-09-29	57.0	@ Landskrona	2	1206	45.08%	Helsingborg	2	1310	30.02%	24.90%
11	1941-05-09	56.9	@ Garda	2	1153	36.45%	Goteborg	2	1319	38.75%	24.79%
12	1941-06-02	56.9	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1156	36.18%	Goteborg	2	1325	39.03%	24.78%
13	1940-08-09	56.8	@ Sleipner	2	1174	50.84%	Norrkoping	2	1231	24.33%	24.83%
14	1940-10-13	56.7	@ Sleipner	2	1135	49.22%	Landskrona	2	1206	25.92%	24.87%
15	1940-09-01	55.5	Sandvikens IF	4	1199	12.46%	@ Goteborg	2	1280	63.66%	23.88%
16	1940-09-15	54.4	Helsingborg	3	1298	27.19%	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1217	47.93%	24.88%
17	1940-09-29	54.2	Degerfors	2	1215	10.48%	@ AIK Stockholm	1	1329	66.03%	23.49%
18	1940-08-11	53.0	Degerfors	3	1189	6.71%	@ Elfsborg	1	1391	71.06%	22.23%
19	1941-05-14	52.7	@ Helsingborg	1	1381	69.47%	Landskrona	1	1208	7.83%	22.70%
20	1941-05-25	52.5	Garda	3	1150	31.98%	@ Sleipner	2	1031	43.12%	24.90%
21	1941-05-04	52.2	@ Degerfors	1	1250	45.47%	Elfsborg	1	1351	29.63%	24.90%
22	1941-05-04	51.9	@ Malmo	1	1219	43.20%	Helsingborg	1	1337	31.90%	24.90%
23	1941-05-25	51.9	@ Malmo	1	1227	45.97%	Degerfors	1	1324	29.12%	24.90%
24	1941-05-11	51.8	@ Landskrona	1	1209	45.12%	AIK Stockholm	1	1313	29.97%	24.90%
25	1941-05-18	51.8	@ Norrkoping	1	1253	60.54%	Landskrona	1	1212	15.20%	24.26%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1941-04-14	26.3	@ Helsingborg	4	1320	67.14%	Sandvikens IF	0	1188	9.60%	23.27%
2	1941-05-01	27.6	@ Norrkoping	2	1266	71.39%	Sleipner	0	1056	6.48%	22.12%
3	1941-05-18	27.8	@ Degerfors	6	1299	66.02%	Brage	0	1184	10.49%	23.49%
4	1940-08-04	28.0	@ AIK Stockholm	4	1236	60.79%	Sleipner	0	1192	14.97%	24.24%
5	1940-08-16	28.7	@ Goteborg	2	1280	68.25%	Garda	0	1130	8.73%	23.01%
6	1940-08-18	28.9	@ Malmo	3	1207	60.01%	Sleipner	0	1173	15.68%	24.32%
7	1940-09-08	28.9	@ Goteborg	2	1255	67.33%	Sleipner	0	1119	9.45%	23.22%
8	1941-05-18	29.3	@ Helsingborg	4	1377	76.69%	Sleipner	1	1042	3.45%	19.85%
9	1940-09-15	29.7	@ AIK Stockholm	3	1281	58.75%	Goteborg	0	1261	16.82%	24.43%
10	1941-05-22	29.8	@ Landskrona	5	1215	69.66%	Sleipner	1	1039	7.69%	22.65%
11	1940-08-18	29.9	@ Degerfors	3	1220	57.02%	Sandvikens IF	0	1218	18.42%	24.56%
12	1941-05-25	30.0	@ Elfsborg	5	1304	57.79%	AIK Stockholm	0	1294	17.71%	24.50%
13	1941-04-14	30.4	@ Norrkoping	5	1261	68.14%	Garda	1	1112	8.82%	23.04%
14	1940-08-18	30.5	@ Norrkoping	3	1232	55.33%	Brage	0	1247	20.01%	24.66%
15	1941-04-06	31.3	@ Elfsborg	5	1374	67.77%	Brage	1	1231	9.10%	23.13%
16	1940-08-11	31.4	@ Brage	5	1235	64.56%	Garda	1	1142	11.70%	23.74%
17	1940-09-01	31.6	@ Helsingborg	1	1291	69.19%	Garda	0	1124	8.03%	22.78%
18	1941-05-01	31.6	@ Degerfors	6	1214	53.44%	Landskrona	0	1247	21.82%	24.74%
19	1941-04-20	32.4	@ Landskrona	2	1221	56.28%	Malmo	0	1227	19.12%	24.60%
20	1940-09-08	32.5	@ Elfsborg	4	1374	68.20%	Sandvikens IF	1	1224	8.77%	23.03%
21	1940-11-03	32.6	@ Landskrona	1	1220	65.31%	Garda	0	1116	11.07%	23.62%
22	1940-09-01	32.7	@ Degerfors	2	1238	55.55%	Norrkoping	0	1251	19.80%	24.64%
23	1940-09-15	32.9	@ Brage	2	1224	54.64%	Malmo	0	1246	20.67%	24.69%
24	1941-05-25	32.9	@ Helsingborg	1	1402	68.44%	Norrkoping	0	1248	8.59%	22.97%
25	1941-04-20	33.5	@ Garda	4	1103	41.91%	Degerfors	0	1230	33.20%	24.89%