1945-46 Allsvenskan Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Norrkoping

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

GAIS

7.96 points above expected

28 points · 20.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Elfsborg

6.47 points below expected

20 points · 26.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Norrkoping	22	16	3	3	35	67	22	+45	31.98	+3.02
2	Malmo	22	13	4	5	30	48	27	+21	30.32	-0.32
3	Goteborg	22	12	6	4	30	48	29	+19	24.85	+5.15
4	GAIS	22	11	6	5	28	36	28	+8	20.04	+7.96
5	Degerfors	22	9	5	8	23	31	23	+8	24.90	-1.90
6	AIK Stockholm	22	8	6	8	22	44	45	-1	23.16	-1.16
7	Elfsborg	22	7	6	9	20	43	44	-1	26.47	-6.47
8	Helsingborg	22	6	6	10	18	45	57	-12	17.35	+0.65
9	Halmia	22	5	7	10	17	40	49	-9	18.85	-1.85
10	Djurgarden	22	7	2	13	16	42	64	-22	14.18	+1.82
11	Jonkoping	22	6	3	13	15	31	60	-29	16.81	-1.81
12	Halmstad	22	3	4	15	10	24	51	-27	15.09	-5.09

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	GAIS	28	20.04	+7.96
2	Goteborg	30	24.85	+5.15
3	Norrkoping	35	31.98	+3.02
4	Djurgarden	16	14.18	+1.82
5	Helsingborg	18	17.35	+0.65

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Elfsborg	20	26.47	-6.47
2	Halmstad	10	15.09	-5.09
3	Degerfors	23	24.90	-1.90
4	Halmia	17	18.85	-1.85
5	Jonkoping	15	16.81	-1.81

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Helsingborg	5	Sep 2 – Oct 7	1 in 1,830
2	Norrkoping	12	Oct 14 – May 30	1 in 189
3	Djurgarden	3	Oct 28 – Nov 11	1 in 70
4	Goteborg	4	Jul 29 – Aug 12	1 in 57
5	GAIS	3	Sep 23 – Oct 14	1 in 40

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	AIK Stockholm	3	May 24 – Jun 2	1 in 55
2	Malmo	2	Sep 2 – Sep 9	1 in 30
3	Jonkoping	5	Apr 22 – May 19	1 in 26
4	Elfsborg	3	Aug 5 – Aug 19	1 in 23
5	Djurgarden	5	Aug 5 – Sep 9	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Helsingborg	5	Sep 2 – Oct 7	1 in 56
2	AIK Stockholm	8	Nov 4 – May 19	1 in 49
3	GAIS	5	Sep 16 – Oct 28	1 in 30
4	Goteborg	6	Jul 29 – Sep 2	1 in 19
5	Djurgarden	4	Oct 28 – Apr 14	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Elfsborg	5	Oct 14 – Apr 14	1 in 58
2	Helsingborg	7	Oct 14 – Apr 28	1 in 22
3	Halmstad	11	Oct 21 – May 30	1 in 21
4	AIK Stockholm	5	Sep 2 – Oct 7	1 in 16
5	Degerfors	5	Nov 11 – May 5	1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Norrkoping	1807	35	+19	9	7.4	+1.6
Malmo	1723	30	+17	9	7.2	+1.8
Goteborg	1640	30	+9	6	5.0	+1.0
GAIS	1563	28	+5	6	4.8	+1.2
Degerfors	1604	23	-19	5	6.3	-1.3
AIK Stockholm	1580	22	-31	3	5.8	-2.8
Elfsborg	1634	20	-15	3	5.3	-2.3
Helsingborg	1472	18	-15	2	3.4	-1.4
Halmia	1509	17	+13	4	4.6	-0.6
Djurgarden	1444	16	+4	4	3.6	+0.4
Jonkoping	1445	15	+5	5	3.5	+1.5
Halmstad	1424	10	-2	2	2.5	-0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AS	DEG	DJU	ELF	GAI	GOT	HAL	HAL	HEL	JON	MAL	NOR
AIK Stockholm	—	0-1-1 2.61	2-0-0 3.96	2-0-0 2.37	0-2-0 3.33	1-1-0 2.39	1-1-0 3.46	1-0-1 3.87	0-1-1 3.64	0-0-2 3.86	1-0-1 1.78	0-0-2 1.60
Degerfors	1-1-0 2.93	—	1-0-1 4.12	0-1-1 2.58	1-1-0 3.19	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.64	2-0-0 4.10	2-0-0 3.81	1-0-1 4.00	0-1-1 2.13	0-0-2 1.93
Djurgarden	0-0-2 1.60	1-0-1 1.45	—	0-0-2 1.25	0-0-2 1.99	1-0-1 1.28	1-0-1 2.23	1-1-0 2.55	2-0-0 2.26	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 1.09	0-0-2 0.90
Elfsborg	0-0-2 3.17	1-1-0 2.95	2-0-0 4.34	—	0-1-1 3.76	0-0-2 3.00	0-1-1 3.95	2-0-0 4.15	0-2-0 4.03	1-1-0 4.03	0-0-2 2.29	1-0-1 1.84
GAIS	0-2-0 2.21	0-1-1 2.35	2-0-0 3.56	1-1-0 1.80	—	1-0-1 2.05	1-1-0 3.01	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.36	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 1.41	0-1-1 1.27
Goteborg	0-1-1 3.14	1-1-0 2.68	1-0-1 4.31	2-0-0 2.54	1-0-1 3.49	—	1-1-0 3.77	2-0-0 4.15	0-1-1 3.99	2-0-0 3.96	1-1-0 2.11	1-1-0 1.61
Halmia	0-1-1 2.08	1-0-1 1.91	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 1.61	0-1-1 2.53	0-1-1 1.78	—	1-1-0 3.20	0-1-1 3.04	1-1-0 3.08	0-0-2 1.41	0-0-2 1.19
Halmstad	1-0-1 1.69	0-0-2 1.47	0-1-1 2.98	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 2.05	0-0-2 1.42	0-1-1 2.33	—	1-1-0 2.40	0-1-1 2.54	1-0-1 1.08	0-0-2 0.88
Helsingborg	1-1-0 1.91	0-0-2 1.75	0-0-2 3.28	0-2-0 1.53	1-0-1 2.18	1-1-0 1.57	1-1-0 2.50	0-1-1 3.14	—	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-2 1.24	1-0-1 1.08
Jonkoping	2-0-0 1.70	1-0-1 1.56	1-0-1 3.00	0-1-1 1.54	0-0-2 2.31	0-0-2 1.61	0-1-1 2.46	1-1-0 3.00	1-0-1 2.78	—	0-0-2 1.20	0-0-2 1.12
Malmo	1-0-1 3.78	1-1-0 3.41	1-1-0 4.51	2-0-0 3.25	1-0-1 4.16	0-1-1 3.43	2-0-0 4.17	1-0-1 4.53	2-0-0 4.35	2-0-0 4.40	—	0-1-1 2.50
Norrkoping	2-0-0 3.96	2-0-0 3.62	2-0-0 4.73	1-0-1 3.72	1-1-0 4.31	0-1-1 3.95	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 4.76	1-0-1 4.53	2-0-0 4.48	1-1-0 3.04	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.55	+5.0
Allowed	0.72	-4.2
Differential	0.92	+3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.79%	4.17%	5.68%	3.03%	1.14%	1.14%	18.94%
1	4.17%	9.09%	4.17%	6.82%	2.27%	1.89%	28.41%
2	5.68%	4.17%	4.55%	3.41%	2.27%	1.52%	21.59%
3	3.03%	6.82%	3.41%	3.79%	0.38%	0.76%	18.18%
4	1.14%	2.27%	2.27%	0.38%	0.76%	0.38%	7.20%
5+	1.14%	1.89%	1.52%	0.76%	0.38%	—	5.68%
Total	18.94%	28.41%	21.59%	18.18%	7.20%	5.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.89	+0.00
SD	1.60	1.60	2.35
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	11	11	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
3	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	27.27%	22.73%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.05	-0.05
SD	1.48	1.43	1.89
CV	0.74	0.70	—
Max	6	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	13.64%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.05	+0.36
SD	1.26	1.17	1.84
CV	0.89	1.12	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%
1	—	—	13.64%	18.18%	—	9.09%	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	9.09%	27.27%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	2.91	-1.00
SD	1.41	2.27	2.96
CV	0.74	0.78	—
Max	5	11	+3
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	31.82%	18.18%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.00	-0.05
SD	1.25	1.45	1.84
CV	0.64	0.72	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.27	+0.36
SD	1.40	1.16	1.59
CV	0.85	0.91	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	36.36%	27.27%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.32	+0.86
SD	1.59	0.99	2.12
CV	0.73	0.75	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	22.73%	22.73%	31.82%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	2.23	-0.41
SD	1.33	1.74	2.20
CV	0.73	0.78	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	31.82%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	18.18%	22.73%	36.36%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	2.32	-1.23
SD	0.92	1.29	1.48
CV	0.84	0.56	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	31.82%
3	—	—	—	13.64%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	22.73%	22.73%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.59	-0.55
SD	1.40	1.62	2.04
CV	0.68	0.63	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	27.27%	13.64%	18.18%	13.64%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	2.73	-1.32
SD	1.37	2.00	2.75
CV	0.97	0.73	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	18.18%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	54.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.23	+0.95
SD	1.94	1.19	2.42
CV	0.89	0.97	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
Total	31.82%	36.36%	31.82%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.05	1.00	+2.05
SD	2.65	0.82	2.68
CV	0.87	0.82	—
Max	11	2	+10
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Norrkoping	1807	35	31.98	+3.02	84.0%	26	27	29	32	34	38	40
Malmo	1723	30	30.32	-0.32	50.0%	21	24	28	30	32	36	41
Goteborg	1640	30	24.85	+5.15	92.0%	14	19	22	25	28	31	32
Elfsborg	1634	20	26.47	-6.47	3.0%	17	21	23	26	29	33	36
Degerfors	1604	23	24.90	-1.90	36.0%	13	18	23	24	28	32	35
AIK Stockholm	1580	22	23.16	-1.16	41.0%	14	17	21	23	26	30	33
GAIS	1563	28	20.04	+7.96	100.0%	11	13	17	20	22	27	28
Halmia	1509	17	18.85	-1.85	37.0%	10	12	16	19	21	26	30
Helsingborg	1472	18	17.35	+0.65	64.0%	8	11	15	17	20	25	29
Jonkoping	1445	15	16.81	-1.81	36.0%	10	11	14	17	19	22	24
Djurgarden	1444	16	14.18	+1.82	73.0%	5	8	12	14	17	21	24
Halmstad	1424	10	15.09	-5.09	12.0%	6	10	12	15	18	22	26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 19.5% * Strong Edge: 19.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.30%

No Edge

41.67%21.97%36.36%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 18.44 Elo pts.

141 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.28 goals

Neutral

-2+0.13+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.23 * Runaway: 0.23 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

One-Team Race

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

57%

Norrkoping, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.23/gm

Comfortable

00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.1 * Some Luck: 3.1 to 4.64 * Lucky: 4.64 to 6.19 * Wild Swing: 6.19 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.22 * Close: 1.22 to 1.82 * Off: 1.82 to 2.43 * Way Off: 2.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.90 points

Some Luck

03.8710

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

01.524

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

100.00%

GAIS

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Elfsborg

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 66.5% * Clear Edge: 66.5% to 71.5% * Wide Edge: 71.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 83.5% * Clear Edge: 83.5% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 90.5% * Dominant: 90.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58.5% * Frequent: 58.5% to 62.5% * Very Frequent: 62.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Lopsided

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 119.18

1.79

Strong Separation

0.951.41.652.75

Interquartile Edge

73%

Wide Edge

50%63%71.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Strong Edge

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Few

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.3 * Slight Separation: 0.3 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.53 * Strong Carryover: 0.53 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 22.5% * As Expected: 22.5% to 25% * Upset-Prone: 25% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 24% * Very Shaky: 24% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.30.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.84

Near-Lock

00.380.530.691

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Upset-Prone

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Shaky Favorites

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.66

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.85

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.098

Well Within Noise

00.1490.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Norrkoping	57.00%	26.00%	12.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Malmo	29.00%	35.00%	20.00%	10.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Goteborg	—	11.00%	23.00%	15.00%	21.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
GAIS	—	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	16.00%	13.00%	17.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	2.00%
Degerfors	4.00%	11.00%	11.00%	18.00%	24.00%	15.00%	10.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
AIK Stockholm	1.00%	2.00%	13.00%	16.00%	16.00%	18.00%	15.00%	7.00%	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%	—
Elfsborg	9.00%	13.00%	15.00%	23.00%	15.00%	15.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—
Helsingborg	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	14.00%	16.00%	20.00%	22.00%	6.00%
Halmia	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	2.00%	13.00%	16.00%	17.00%	20.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Djurgarden	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	4.00%	4.00%	13.00%	23.00%	17.00%	37.00%
Jonkoping	—	—	—	—	3.00%	6.00%	9.00%	15.00%	21.00%	12.00%	17.00%	17.00%
Halmstad	—	—	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	5.00%	12.00%	10.00%	19.00%	19.00%	31.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Elfsborg	100%	—
Malmo	100%	—
Norrkoping	100%	—
Degerfors	99.00%	1.00%
Goteborg	99.00%	1.00%
AIK Stockholm	95.00%	5.00%
GAIS	90.00%	10.00%
Halmia	83.00%	17.00%
Helsingborg	72.00%	28.00%
Jonkoping	66.00%	34.00%
Halmstad	50.00%	50.00%
Djurgarden	46.00%	54.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1945-07-29	GAIS	D 0-0	63.3	1609	1522	53.93%	22.68%	23.39%	+0.75	-0.9	1
1945-07-29	@ Degerfors	D 0-0	63.3	1522	1609	23.39%	22.68%	53.93%	-0.75	+0.9	1
1945-07-29	Malmo	D 2-2	72.3	1437	1715	13.20%	20.08%	66.72%	-1.85	+1.2	1
1945-07-29	@ Djurgarden	D 2-2	72.3	1715	1437	66.72%	20.08%	13.20%	+1.85	-1.2	1
1945-07-29	Norrkoping	W 2-0	61.7	1601	1758	22.94%	22.34%	54.71%	-0.98	+12.6	2
1945-07-29	@ Goteborg	L 0-2	61.7	1758	1601	54.71%	22.34%	22.94%	+0.98	-12.6	0
1945-07-29	AIK Stockholm	L 0-2	47.2	1473	1594	26.77%	22.77%	50.46%	-0.73	-7.0	0
1945-07-29	@ Halmstad	W 2-0	47.2	1594	1473	50.46%	22.77%	26.77%	+0.73	+7.0	2
1945-07-29	Elfsborg	D 3-3	75.5	1475	1662	20.09%	21.89%	58.02%	-1.19	+0.7	1
1945-07-29	@ Helsingborg	D 3-3	75.5	1662	1475	58.02%	21.89%	20.09%	+1.19	-0.7	1
1945-07-29	Halmia	L 2-3	60.6	1494	1508	40.85%	23.30%	35.85%	+0.03	-4.7	0
1945-07-29	@ Jonkoping	W 3-2	60.6	1508	1494	35.85%	23.30%	40.85%	-0.03	+4.7	2
1945-08-03	Helsingborg	W 4-1	47.7	1714	1476	68.28%	20.03%	11.69%	+1.82	+4.0	3
1945-08-03	@ Malmo	L 1-4	47.7	1476	1714	11.69%	20.03%	68.28%	-1.82	-4.0	1
1945-08-05	Jonkoping	L 1-2	63.7	1601	1489	56.69%	22.37%	20.94%	+0.93	-6.5	2
1945-08-05	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-1	63.7	1489	1601	20.94%	22.37%	56.69%	-0.93	+6.5	2
1945-08-05	Goteborg	L 1-2	66.1	1661	1614	49.11%	23.05%	27.84%	+0.47	-5.7	1
1945-08-05	@ Elfsborg	W 2-1	66.1	1614	1661	27.84%	23.05%	49.11%	-0.47	+5.7	4
1945-08-05	Djurgarden	W 2-1	49.2	1523	1438	53.61%	22.71%	23.68%	+0.73	+3.2	3
1945-08-05	@ GAIS	L 1-2	49.2	1438	1523	23.68%	22.71%	53.61%	-0.73	-3.2	1
1945-08-05	Degerfors	L 0-1	52.9	1513	1608	29.83%	23.01%	47.16%	-0.55	-4.1	2
1945-08-05	@ Halmia	W 1-0	52.9	1608	1513	47.16%	23.01%	29.83%	+0.55	+4.1	3
1945-08-05	Halmstad	W 3-1	49.5	1745	1466	71.31%	19.05%	9.64%	+2.11	+2.3	2
1945-08-05	@ Norrkoping	L 1-3	49.5	1466	1745	9.64%	19.05%	71.31%	-2.11	-2.3	0
1945-08-08	AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	48.9	1435	1595	22.64%	22.30%	55.06%	-1.00	-5.2	1
1945-08-08	@ Djurgarden	W 3-1	48.9	1595	1435	55.06%	22.30%	22.64%	+1.00	+5.2	4
1945-08-08	Goteborg	L 1-3	55.2	1526	1619	30.06%	23.02%	46.91%	-0.53	-6.7	3
1945-08-08	@ GAIS	W 3-1	55.2	1619	1526	46.91%	23.02%	30.06%	+0.53	+6.7	6
1945-08-12	Malmo	L 1-3	60.3	1655	1718	34.06%	23.21%	42.73%	-0.31	-7.4	1
1945-08-12	@ Elfsborg	W 3-1	60.3	1718	1655	42.73%	23.21%	34.06%	+0.31	+7.4	5
1945-08-12	Jonkoping	W 7-0	44.0	1626	1496	58.64%	22.11%	19.25%	+1.06	+17.0	8
1945-08-12	@ Goteborg	L 0-7	44.0	1496	1626	19.25%	22.11%	58.64%	-1.06	-17.0	2
1945-08-12	Halmia	D 1-1	60.7	1464	1509	36.51%	23.27%	40.22%	-0.19	+0.1	1
1945-08-12	@ Halmstad	D 1-1	60.7	1509	1464	40.22%	23.27%	36.51%	+0.19	-0.1	3
1945-08-12	Degerfors	L 1-3	51.5	1472	1612	24.66%	22.56%	52.78%	-0.86	-5.7	1
1945-08-12	@ Helsingborg	W 3-1	51.5	1612	1472	52.78%	22.56%	24.66%	+0.86	+5.7	5
1945-08-12	GAIS	D 0-0	67.1	1747	1519	67.51%	20.25%	12.24%	+1.75	-1.8	3
1945-08-12	@ Norrkoping	D 0-0	67.1	1519	1747	12.24%	20.25%	67.51%	-1.75	+1.8	4
1945-08-19	Elfsborg	W 4-2	65.0	1600	1648	36.05%	23.26%	40.68%	-0.21	+7.6	6
1945-08-19	@ AIK Stockholm	L 2-4	65.0	1648	1600	40.68%	23.26%	36.05%	+0.21	-7.6	1
1945-08-19	Djurgarden	W 4-2	51.1	1618	1430	64.15%	21.09%	14.76%	+1.47	+3.2	7
1945-08-19	@ Degerfors	L 2-4	51.1	1430	1618	14.76%	21.09%	64.15%	-1.47	-3.2	1
1945-08-19	Halmstad	W 3-2	55.6	1521	1464	50.33%	22.97%	26.69%	+0.54	+3.3	6
1945-08-19	@ GAIS	L 2-3	55.6	1464	1521	26.69%	22.97%	50.33%	-0.54	-3.3	1
1945-08-19	Goteborg	D 2-2	71.5	1508	1643	25.26%	22.63%	52.11%	-0.83	+0.5	4
1945-08-19	@ Halmia	D 2-2	71.5	1643	1508	52.11%	22.63%	25.26%	+0.83	-0.5	9
1945-08-19	Helsingborg	W 4-1	46.7	1479	1466	44.50%	23.24%	32.25%	+0.22	+10.0	4
1945-08-19	@ Jonkoping	L 1-4	46.7	1466	1479	32.25%	23.24%	44.50%	-0.22	-10.0	1
1945-08-19	Norrkoping	D 1-1	71.1	1725	1745	40.03%	23.30%	36.67%	-0.01	-0.1	6
1945-08-19	@ Malmo	D 1-1	71.1	1745	1725	36.67%	23.30%	40.03%	+0.01	+0.1	4
1945-09-02	Jonkoping	W 3-0	43.8	1621	1489	58.84%	22.08%	19.09%	+1.07	+7.6	9
1945-09-02	@ Degerfors	L 0-3	43.8	1489	1621	19.09%	22.08%	58.84%	-1.07	-7.6	4
1945-09-02	Halmia	L 0-4	40.3	1427	1509	31.46%	23.10%	45.44%	-0.46	-15.2	1
1945-09-02	@ Djurgarden	W 4-0	40.3	1509	1427	45.44%	23.10%	31.46%	+0.46	+15.2	6
1945-09-02	Malmo	W 3-1	63.7	1642	1725	31.41%	23.10%	45.49%	-0.46	+9.3	11
1945-09-02	@ Goteborg	L 1-3	63.7	1725	1642	45.49%	23.10%	31.41%	+0.46	-9.3	6
1945-09-02	Elfsborg	L 1-3	50.7	1460	1640	20.68%	22.00%	57.33%	-1.15	-4.9	1
1945-09-02	@ Halmstad	W 3-1	50.7	1640	1460	57.33%	22.00%	20.68%	+1.15	+4.8	3
1945-09-02	GAIS	W 2-0	49.2	1456	1524	33.36%	23.19%	43.45%	-0.35	+10.3	3
1945-09-02	@ Helsingborg	L 0-2	49.2	1524	1456	43.45%	23.19%	33.36%	+0.35	-10.3	6
1945-09-02	AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	55.2	1746	1607	59.43%	21.99%	18.58%	+1.11	+4.4	6
1945-09-02	@ Norrkoping	L 1-3	55.2	1607	1746	18.58%	21.99%	59.43%	-1.11	-4.4	6
1945-09-09	Degerfors	L 0-2	55.7	1603	1629	39.25%	23.30%	37.45%	-0.05	-9.5	6
1945-09-09	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-0	55.7	1629	1603	37.45%	23.30%	39.25%	+0.05	+9.5	11
1945-09-09	Norrkoping	W 2-0	60.3	1645	1750	28.68%	22.93%	48.39%	-0.61	+11.3	5
1945-09-09	@ Elfsborg	L 0-2	60.3	1750	1645	48.39%	22.93%	28.68%	+0.61	-11.3	6
1945-09-09	Helsingborg	L 1-2	58.4	1524	1467	50.37%	22.97%	26.66%	+0.54	-5.9	6
1945-09-09	@ Halmia	W 2-1	58.4	1467	1524	26.66%	22.97%	50.37%	-0.54	+5.8	5
1945-09-09	Djurgarden	W 3-1	44.9	1481	1411	51.85%	22.86%	25.28%	+0.63	+5.8	6
1945-09-09	@ Jonkoping	L 1-3	44.9	1411	1481	25.28%	22.86%	51.85%	-0.63	-5.8	1
1945-09-09	Halmstad	L 0-1	65.4	1716	1456	69.98%	19.50%	10.52%	+1.98	-8.4	6
1945-09-09	@ Malmo	W 1-0	65.4	1456	1716	10.52%	19.50%	69.98%	-1.98	+8.4	3
1945-09-16	Norrkoping	L 2-3	65.8	1638	1739	29.18%	22.97%	47.85%	-0.58	-3.6	11
1945-09-16	@ Degerfors	W 3-2	65.8	1739	1638	47.85%	22.97%	29.18%	+0.58	+3.6	8
1945-09-16	Halmstad	W 2-0	45.0	1406	1464	34.64%	23.23%	42.13%	-0.28	+10.1	3
1945-09-16	@ Djurgarden	L 0-2	45.0	1464	1406	42.13%	23.23%	34.64%	+0.28	-10.1	3
1945-09-16	AIK Stockholm	D 2-2	70.0	1514	1593	31.85%	23.12%	45.03%	-0.43	+0.3	7
1945-09-16	@ GAIS	D 2-2	70.0	1593	1514	45.03%	23.12%	31.85%	+0.43	-0.3	7
1945-09-16	Malmo	L 1-7	48.8	1518	1708	19.82%	21.85%	58.33%	-1.21	-12.3	6
1945-09-16	@ Halmia	W 7-1	48.8	1708	1518	58.33%	21.85%	19.82%	+1.21	+12.3	8
1945-09-16	Goteborg	W 2-1	64.9	1473	1652	20.74%	22.01%	57.25%	-1.14	+6.5	7
1945-09-16	@ Helsingborg	L 1-2	64.9	1652	1473	57.25%	22.01%	20.74%	+1.14	-6.5	11
1945-09-16	Elfsborg	L 0-2	47.9	1487	1656	21.64%	22.16%	56.20%	-1.08	-5.8	6
1945-09-16	@ Jonkoping	W 2-0	47.9	1656	1487	56.20%	22.16%	21.64%	+1.08	+5.8	7
1945-09-23	Helsingborg	L 3-4	71.3	1593	1479	56.92%	22.34%	20.74%	+0.94	-6.0	7
1945-09-23	@ AIK Stockholm	W 4-3	71.3	1479	1593	20.74%	22.34%	56.92%	-0.94	+6.0	9
1945-09-23	Halmia	D 2-2	72.2	1662	1506	61.22%	21.68%	17.10%	+1.24	-0.9	8
1945-09-23	@ Elfsborg	D 2-2	72.2	1506	1662	17.10%	21.68%	61.22%	-1.24	+0.9	7
1945-09-23	Djurgarden	W 3-1	46.3	1645	1416	67.62%	20.22%	12.16%	+1.76	+2.9	13
1945-09-23	@ Goteborg	L 1-3	46.3	1416	1645	12.16%	20.22%	67.62%	-1.76	-2.9	3
1945-09-23	Degerfors	L 0-3	43.5	1454	1634	20.61%	21.99%	57.40%	-1.15	-8.1	3
1945-09-23	@ Halmstad	W 3-0	43.5	1634	1454	57.40%	21.99%	20.61%	+1.15	+8.1	13
1945-09-23	GAIS	L 0-1	65.8	1720	1514	65.68%	20.73%	13.59%	+1.59	-7.9	8
1945-09-23	@ Malmo	W 1-0	65.8	1514	1720	13.59%	20.73%	65.68%	-1.59	+7.9	9
1945-09-23	Jonkoping	W 6-2	49.1	1742	1481	70.04%	19.48%	10.48%	+1.99	+3.9	10
1945-09-23	@ Norrkoping	L 2-6	49.1	1481	1742	10.48%	19.48%	70.04%	-1.99	-3.9	6
1945-10-07	Malmo	L 0-1	58.4	1643	1712	33.15%	23.18%	43.67%	-0.36	-4.4	13
1945-10-07	@ Degerfors	W 1-0	58.4	1712	1643	43.67%	23.18%	33.15%	+0.36	+4.4	10
1945-10-07	Elfsborg	L 0-3	41.0	1413	1661	15.12%	20.72%	64.16%	-1.64	-6.1	3
1945-10-07	@ Djurgarden	W 3-0	41.0	1661	1413	64.16%	20.72%	15.12%	+1.64	+6.1	10
1945-10-07	Halmstad	W 3-2	55.1	1648	1446	65.38%	20.81%	13.81%	+1.57	+1.8	15
1945-10-07	@ Goteborg	L 2-3	55.1	1446	1648	13.81%	20.81%	65.38%	-1.57	-1.8	3
1945-10-07	AIK Stockholm	D 3-3	73.8	1507	1587	31.75%	23.12%	45.13%	-0.44	+0.2	8
1945-10-07	@ Halmia	D 3-3	73.8	1587	1507	45.13%	23.12%	31.75%	+0.44	-0.2	8
1945-10-07	Norrkoping	W 2-1	69.5	1485	1746	14.28%	20.46%	65.26%	-1.72	+7.4	11
1945-10-07	@ Helsingborg	L 1-2	69.5	1746	1485	65.26%	20.46%	14.28%	+1.72	-7.4	10
1945-10-07	GAIS	L 2-3	59.2	1477	1522	36.48%	23.27%	40.25%	-0.19	-4.3	6
1945-10-07	@ Jonkoping	W 3-2	59.2	1522	1477	40.25%	23.27%	36.48%	+0.19	+4.3	11
1945-10-14	Goteborg	W 3-1	61.2	1587	1650	34.01%	23.21%	42.78%	-0.32	+8.8	10
1945-10-14	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	61.2	1650	1587	42.78%	23.21%	34.01%	+0.32	-8.8	15
1945-10-14	Degerfors	D 1-1	69.9	1667	1638	46.77%	23.17%	30.06%	+0.34	-0.5	11
1945-10-14	@ Elfsborg	D 1-1	69.9	1638	1667	30.06%	23.17%	46.77%	-0.34	+0.4	14
1945-10-14	Halmia	W 3-1	51.9	1526	1507	45.45%	23.21%	31.34%	+0.27	+6.9	13
1945-10-14	@ GAIS	L 1-3	51.9	1507	1526	31.34%	23.21%	45.45%	-0.27	-6.9	8
1945-10-14	Helsingborg	W 2-1	53.6	1444	1492	36.00%	23.26%	40.74%	-0.21	+4.9	5
1945-10-14	@ Halmstad	L 1-2	53.6	1492	1444	40.74%	23.26%	36.00%	+0.21	-4.9	11
1945-10-14	Jonkoping	W 4-1	47.6	1716	1473	68.72%	19.90%	11.38%	+1.86	+3.9	12
1945-10-14	@ Malmo	L 1-4	47.6	1473	1716	11.38%	19.90%	68.72%	-1.86	-3.9	6
1945-10-14	Djurgarden	W 11-1	42.2	1739	1407	74.81%	17.69%	7.50%	+2.49	+7.6	12
1945-10-14	@ Norrkoping	L 1-11	42.2	1407	1739	7.50%	17.69%	74.81%	-2.49	-7.6	3
1945-10-21	Halmstad	W 2-0	43.2	1469	1449	45.55%	23.21%	31.24%	+0.27	+8.0	8
1945-10-21	@ Jonkoping	L 0-2	43.2	1449	1469	31.24%	23.21%	45.55%	-0.27	-8.0	5
1945-10-28	Malmo	L 1-4	55.1	1596	1720	26.36%	22.74%	50.90%	-0.75	-8.5	10
1945-10-28	@ AIK Stockholm	W 4-1	55.1	1720	1596	50.90%	22.74%	26.36%	+0.75	+8.5	14
1945-10-28	GAIS	D 1-1	68.4	1667	1533	58.97%	22.06%	18.97%	+1.08	-1.1	12
1945-10-28	@ Elfsborg	D 1-1	68.4	1533	1667	18.97%	22.06%	58.97%	-1.08	+1.1	14
1945-10-28	Degerfors	D 1-1	69.5	1641	1639	43.18%	23.27%	33.55%	+0.15	-0.2	16
1945-10-28	@ Goteborg	D 1-1	69.5	1639	1641	33.55%	23.27%	43.18%	-0.15	+0.2	15
1945-10-28	Jonkoping	D 2-2	63.1	1441	1477	37.77%	23.29%	38.94%	-0.12	+0.0	6
1945-10-28	@ Halmstad	D 2-2	63.1	1477	1441	38.94%	23.29%	37.77%	+0.12	-0.0	9
1945-10-28	Djurgarden	L 2-5	54.6	1488	1399	54.08%	22.66%	23.26%	+0.76	-13.2	11
1945-10-28	@ Helsingborg	W 5-2	54.6	1399	1488	23.26%	22.66%	54.08%	-0.76	+13.2	5
1945-10-28	Halmia	W 3-2	57.9	1746	1500	68.91%	19.84%	11.25%	+1.88	+1.5	14
1945-10-28	@ Norrkoping	L 2-3	57.9	1500	1746	11.25%	19.84%	68.91%	-1.88	-1.5	8
1945-11-04	Halmstad	W 3-0	40.9	1639	1441	65.01%	20.90%	14.09%	+1.54	+5.7	17
1945-11-04	@ Degerfors	L 0-3	40.9	1441	1639	14.09%	20.90%	65.01%	-1.54	-5.7	6
1945-11-04	Goteborg	W 3-0	54.5	1412	1641	16.58%	21.13%	62.29%	-1.49	+20.5	7
1945-11-04	@ Djurgarden	L 0-3	54.5	1641	1412	62.29%	21.13%	16.58%	+1.49	-20.5	16
1945-11-04	Malmo	L 0-1	52.7	1534	1729	19.37%	21.76%	58.87%	-1.25	-2.8	14
1945-11-04	@ GAIS	W 1-0	52.7	1729	1534	58.87%	21.76%	19.37%	+1.25	+2.8	16
1945-11-04	Elfsborg	W 2-1	65.7	1499	1666	21.89%	22.19%	55.91%	-1.06	+6.4	10
1945-11-04	@ Halmia	L 1-2	65.7	1666	1499	55.91%	22.19%	21.89%	+1.06	-6.4	12
1945-11-04	AIK Stockholm	D 3-3	72.8	1474	1587	27.72%	22.86%	49.42%	-0.67	+0.4	12
1945-11-04	@ Helsingborg	D 3-3	72.8	1587	1474	49.42%	22.86%	27.72%	+0.67	-0.4	11
1945-11-04	Norrkoping	L 1-6	46.7	1477	1748	13.64%	20.24%	66.12%	-1.80	-7.3	9
1945-11-04	@ Jonkoping	W 6-1	46.7	1748	1477	66.12%	20.24%	13.64%	+1.80	+7.3	16
1945-11-11	Goteborg	L 0-1	61.2	1645	1620	46.11%	23.19%	30.69%	+0.30	-5.8	17
1945-11-11	@ Degerfors	W 1-0	61.2	1620	1645	30.69%	23.19%	46.11%	-0.30	+5.8	18
1945-11-11	Helsingborg	W 5-4	62.5	1433	1475	36.92%	23.28%	39.80%	-0.17	+4.4	9
1945-11-11	@ Djurgarden	L 4-5	62.5	1475	1433	39.80%	23.28%	36.92%	+0.17	-4.4	12
1945-11-11	Elfsborg	W 5-3	69.7	1532	1659	26.01%	22.70%	51.29%	-0.78	+8.7	16
1945-11-11	@ GAIS	L 3-5	69.7	1659	1532	51.29%	22.70%	26.01%	+0.78	-8.7	12
1945-11-11	Norrkoping	L 0-3	45.7	1505	1755	15.03%	20.70%	64.28%	-1.65	-6.0	10
1945-11-11	@ Halmia	W 3-0	45.7	1755	1505	64.28%	20.70%	15.03%	+1.65	+6.0	18
1945-11-11	AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	67.2	1732	1587	60.09%	21.88%	18.03%	+1.16	-11.9	16
1945-11-11	@ Malmo	W 3-1	67.2	1587	1732	18.03%	21.88%	60.09%	-1.16	+11.9	13
1946-04-07	Halmstad	W 4-2	50.8	1499	1435	51.16%	22.92%	25.92%	+0.59	+5.3	12
1946-04-07	@ Halmia	L 2-4	50.8	1435	1499	25.92%	22.92%	51.16%	-0.59	-5.3	6
1946-04-14	GAIS	D 1-1	66.6	1599	1540	50.49%	22.96%	26.55%	+0.55	-0.6	14
1946-04-14	@ AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	66.6	1540	1599	26.55%	22.96%	50.49%	-0.55	+0.7	17
1946-04-14	Jonkoping	D 1-1	66.6	1651	1470	63.54%	21.23%	15.24%	+1.42	-1.4	13
1946-04-14	@ Elfsborg	D 1-1	66.6	1470	1651	15.24%	21.23%	63.54%	-1.42	+1.4	10
1946-04-14	Helsingborg	D 2-2	70.1	1626	1470	61.16%	21.69%	17.14%	+1.24	-1.0	19
1946-04-14	@ Goteborg	D 2-2	70.1	1470	1626	17.14%	21.69%	61.16%	-1.24	+0.9	13
1946-04-14	Djurgarden	D 3-3	65.8	1430	1437	41.83%	23.29%	34.88%	+0.08	-0.1	7
1946-04-14	@ Halmstad	D 3-3	65.8	1437	1430	34.88%	23.29%	41.83%	-0.08	+0.1	10
1946-04-14	Halmia	W 1-0	49.8	1720	1504	66.47%	20.53%	13.00%	+1.66	+1.9	18
1946-04-14	@ Malmo	L 0-1	49.8	1504	1720	13.00%	20.53%	66.47%	-1.66	-1.9	12
1946-04-14	Degerfors	W 2-0	51.6	1761	1639	57.80%	22.23%	19.97%	+1.00	+5.5	20
1946-04-14	@ Norrkoping	L 0-2	51.6	1639	1761	19.97%	22.23%	57.80%	-1.00	-5.5	17
1946-04-22	Elfsborg	L 2-3	68.3	1633	1649	40.61%	23.30%	36.09%	+0.02	-4.6	17
1946-04-22	@ Degerfors	W 3-2	68.3	1649	1633	36.09%	23.30%	40.61%	-0.02	+4.6	15
1946-04-22	Norrkoping	L 1-2	52.0	1437	1767	10.40%	18.85%	70.75%	-2.21	-1.4	10
1946-04-22	@ Djurgarden	W 2-1	52.0	1767	1437	70.75%	18.85%	10.40%	+2.21	+1.4	22
1946-04-22	AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	68.6	1625	1598	46.47%	23.18%	30.35%	+0.32	-0.4	20
1946-04-22	@ Goteborg	D 1-1	68.6	1598	1625	30.35%	23.18%	46.47%	-0.32	+0.4	15
1946-04-22	GAIS	D 0-0	60.2	1502	1541	37.41%	23.29%	39.31%	-0.14	+0.1	13
1946-04-22	@ Halmia	D 0-0	60.2	1541	1502	39.31%	23.29%	37.41%	+0.14	-0.0	18
1946-04-22	Halmstad	D 1-1	58.2	1471	1430	48.36%	23.09%	28.55%	+0.43	-0.5	14
1946-04-22	@ Helsingborg	D 1-1	58.2	1430	1471	28.55%	23.09%	48.36%	-0.43	+0.5	8
1946-04-22	Malmo	L 0-1	49.7	1471	1722	14.98%	20.68%	64.34%	-1.65	-2.2	10
1946-04-22	@ Jonkoping	W 1-0	49.7	1722	1471	64.34%	20.68%	14.98%	+1.65	+2.2	20
1946-04-28	Halmia	W 6-3	54.8	1599	1503	54.92%	22.58%	22.50%	+0.81	+6.0	17
1946-04-28	@ AIK Stockholm	L 3-6	54.8	1503	1599	22.50%	22.58%	54.92%	-0.81	-6.0	13
1946-04-28	Djurgarden	W 2-1	50.0	1654	1436	66.70%	20.47%	12.83%	+1.68	+1.8	17
1946-04-28	@ Elfsborg	L 1-2	50.0	1436	1654	12.83%	20.47%	66.70%	-1.68	-1.8	10
1946-04-28	Jonkoping	W 3-0	42.2	1541	1469	52.16%	22.84%	25.00%	+0.64	+9.6	20
1946-04-28	@ GAIS	L 0-3	42.2	1469	1541	25.00%	22.84%	52.16%	-0.64	-9.6	10
1946-04-28	Goteborg	L 2-4	52.9	1430	1625	19.37%	21.76%	58.87%	-1.25	-4.1	8
1946-04-28	@ Halmstad	W 4-2	52.9	1625	1430	58.87%	21.76%	19.37%	+1.25	+4.1	22
1946-04-28	Degerfors	D 1-1	70.6	1724	1629	54.83%	22.59%	22.59%	+0.81	-0.9	21
1946-04-28	@ Malmo	D 1-1	70.6	1629	1724	22.59%	22.59%	54.83%	-0.81	+0.9	18
1946-04-28	Helsingborg	W 6-2	48.6	1768	1471	72.57%	18.59%	8.84%	+2.24	+3.3	24
1946-04-28	@ Norrkoping	L 2-6	48.6	1471	1768	8.84%	18.59%	72.57%	-2.24	-3.3	14
1946-05-05	Degerfors	W 2-1	63.3	1434	1630	19.27%	21.74%	58.99%	-1.26	+6.7	12
1946-05-05	@ Djurgarden	L 1-2	63.3	1630	1434	58.99%	21.74%	19.27%	+1.26	-6.7	18
1946-05-05	AIK Stockholm	L 0-1	62.1	1656	1604	49.59%	23.02%	27.39%	+0.50	-6.1	17
1946-05-05	@ Elfsborg	W 1-0	62.1	1604	1656	27.39%	23.02%	49.59%	-0.50	+6.1	19
1946-05-05	Halmia	W 3-2	58.0	1629	1497	58.82%	22.08%	19.10%	+1.07	+2.5	24
1946-05-05	@ Goteborg	L 2-3	58.0	1497	1629	19.10%	22.08%	58.82%	-1.07	-2.5	13
1946-05-05	GAIS	L 0-2	43.8	1426	1551	26.40%	22.74%	50.86%	-0.75	-6.9	8
1946-05-05	@ Halmstad	W 2-0	43.8	1551	1426	50.86%	22.74%	26.40%	+0.75	+6.9	22
1946-05-05	Jonkoping	W 5-0	40.2	1467	1459	43.98%	23.26%	32.76%	+0.19	+19.3	16
1946-05-05	@ Helsingborg	L 0-5	40.2	1459	1467	32.76%	23.26%	43.98%	-0.19	-19.3	10
1946-05-05	Malmo	W 5-0	50.8	1771	1723	49.24%	23.04%	27.72%	+0.48	+16.9	26
1946-05-05	@ Norrkoping	L 0-5	50.8	1723	1771	27.72%	23.04%	49.24%	-0.48	-16.9	21
1946-05-10	Djurgarden	W 3-1	47.5	1611	1441	62.50%	21.44%	16.06%	+1.34	+3.9	21
1946-05-10	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	47.5	1441	1611	16.06%	21.44%	62.50%	-1.34	-3.9	12
1946-05-12	Helsingborg	W 2-0	46.0	1623	1487	59.22%	22.02%	18.76%	+1.10	+5.1	20
1946-05-12	@ Degerfors	L 0-2	46.0	1487	1623	18.76%	22.02%	59.22%	-1.10	-5.1	16
1946-05-12	Norrkoping	L 1-4	51.9	1557	1788	16.41%	21.09%	62.50%	-1.51	-5.5	22
1946-05-12	@ GAIS	W 4-1	51.9	1788	1557	62.50%	21.09%	16.41%	+1.51	+5.5	28
1946-05-12	Goteborg	L 0-4	41.3	1440	1631	19.63%	21.81%	58.57%	-1.23	-10.1	10
1946-05-12	@ Jonkoping	W 4-0	41.3	1631	1440	58.57%	21.81%	19.63%	+1.23	+10.1	26
1946-05-12	Elfsborg	W 4-2	62.2	1706	1650	50.24%	22.98%	26.78%	+0.53	+5.5	23
1946-05-12	@ Malmo	L 2-4	62.2	1650	1706	26.78%	22.98%	50.24%	-0.53	-5.4	17
1946-05-17	GAIS	L 1-3	63.6	1641	1552	54.17%	22.66%	23.17%	+0.77	-10.8	26
1946-05-17	@ Goteborg	W 3-1	63.6	1552	1641	23.17%	22.66%	54.17%	-0.77	+10.8	24
1946-05-19	AIK Stockholm	D 0-0	65.8	1628	1614	44.68%	23.24%	32.08%	+0.23	-0.4	21
1946-05-19	@ Degerfors	D 0-0	65.8	1614	1628	32.08%	23.24%	44.68%	-0.23	+0.4	22
1946-05-19	Jonkoping	W 4-2	50.8	1437	1430	43.84%	23.26%	32.90%	+0.18	+6.4	14
1946-05-19	@ Djurgarden	L 2-4	50.8	1430	1437	32.90%	23.26%	43.84%	-0.18	-6.4	10
1946-05-19	Malmo	L 1-3	48.5	1419	1711	12.37%	19.76%	67.88%	-1.95	-3.0	8
1946-05-19	@ Halmstad	W 3-1	48.5	1711	1419	67.88%	19.76%	12.37%	+1.95	+3.0	25
1946-05-19	Halmia	D 3-3	69.5	1482	1494	41.11%	23.30%	35.60%	+0.04	-0.1	17
1946-05-19	@ Helsingborg	D 3-3	69.5	1494	1482	35.60%	23.30%	41.11%	-0.04	+0.1	14
1946-05-19	Elfsborg	W 3-0	48.6	1794	1644	60.57%	21.80%	17.63%	+1.19	+7.1	30
1946-05-19	@ Norrkoping	L 0-3	48.6	1644	1794	17.63%	21.80%	60.57%	-1.19	-7.1	17
1946-05-24	Norrkoping	L 1-4	53.8	1615	1801	20.12%	21.90%	57.98%	-1.19	-6.7	22
1946-05-24	@ AIK Stockholm	W 4-1	53.8	1801	1615	57.98%	21.90%	20.12%	+1.19	+6.7	32
1946-05-26	Halmstad	W 5-1	42.4	1637	1416	66.92%	20.41%	12.67%	+1.70	+5.6	19
1946-05-26	@ Elfsborg	L 1-5	42.4	1416	1637	12.67%	20.41%	66.92%	-1.70	-5.6	8
1946-05-26	Helsingborg	W 2-0	45.6	1563	1482	53.22%	22.75%	24.03%	+0.71	+6.4	26
1946-05-26	@ GAIS	L 0-2	45.6	1482	1563	24.03%	22.75%	53.22%	-0.71	-6.4	17
1946-05-26	Djurgarden	L 1-3	53.8	1494	1443	49.54%	23.03%	27.43%	+0.49	-10.0	14
1946-05-26	@ Halmia	W 3-1	53.8	1443	1494	27.43%	23.03%	49.54%	-0.49	+10.0	16
1946-05-26	Degerfors	W 1-0	59.2	1423	1628	18.51%	21.58%	59.91%	-1.32	+7.2	12
1946-05-26	@ Jonkoping	L 0-1	59.2	1628	1423	59.91%	21.58%	18.51%	+1.32	-7.2	21
1946-05-26	Goteborg	D 1-1	70.5	1714	1631	53.54%	22.72%	23.75%	+0.73	-0.8	26
1946-05-26	@ Malmo	D 1-1	70.5	1631	1714	23.75%	22.72%	53.54%	-0.73	+0.8	27
1946-05-30	Halmia	L 0-4	54.4	1620	1484	59.23%	22.02%	18.75%	+1.10	-25.7	21
1946-05-30	@ Degerfors	W 4-0	54.4	1484	1620	18.75%	22.02%	59.23%	-1.10	+25.7	16
1946-05-30	GAIS	L 2-3	57.2	1453	1569	27.37%	22.83%	49.80%	-0.69	-3.4	16
1946-05-30	@ Djurgarden	W 3-2	57.2	1569	1453	49.80%	22.83%	27.37%	+0.69	+3.4	28
1946-05-30	Elfsborg	W 3-1	59.7	1631	1643	41.26%	23.30%	35.44%	+0.05	+7.6	29
1946-05-30	@ Goteborg	L 1-3	59.7	1643	1631	35.44%	23.30%	41.26%	-0.05	-7.6	19
1946-05-30	Norrkoping	L 0-1	47.0	1411	1808	7.58%	17.10%	75.32%	-2.69	-1.1	8
1946-05-30	@ Halmstad	W 1-0	47.0	1808	1411	75.32%	17.10%	7.58%	+2.69	+1.1	34
1946-05-30	Malmo	L 0-2	47.0	1475	1714	15.85%	20.94%	63.22%	-1.56	-4.4	17
1946-05-30	@ Helsingborg	W 2-0	47.0	1714	1475	63.22%	20.94%	15.85%	+1.56	+4.4	28
1946-05-30	AIK Stockholm	W 5-2	60.8	1430	1608	20.88%	22.03%	57.09%	-1.13	+13.9	14
1946-05-30	@ Jonkoping	L 2-5	60.8	1608	1430	57.09%	22.03%	20.88%	+1.13	-13.9	22
1946-06-02	Halmstad	L 0-2	55.5	1594	1410	63.85%	21.16%	14.99%	+1.44	-14.5	22
1946-06-02	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-0	55.5	1410	1594	14.99%	21.16%	63.85%	-1.44	+14.5	10
1946-06-02	Helsingborg	D 4-4	77.5	1635	1471	61.98%	21.54%	16.48%	+1.30	-0.7	20
1946-06-02	@ Elfsborg	D 4-4	77.5	1471	1635	16.48%	21.54%	61.98%	-1.30	+0.7	18
1946-06-02	Degerfors	L 0-2	54.4	1573	1595	39.74%	23.30%	36.96%	-0.03	-9.6	28
1946-06-02	@ GAIS	W 2-0	54.4	1595	1573	36.96%	23.30%	39.74%	+0.03	+9.6	23
1946-06-02	Jonkoping	D 1-1	60.1	1510	1444	51.37%	22.90%	25.73%	+0.60	-0.7	17
1946-06-02	@ Halmia	D 1-1	60.1	1444	1510	25.73%	22.90%	51.37%	-0.60	+0.7	15
1946-06-02	Djurgarden	W 6-1	44.1	1718	1450	70.53%	19.32%	10.15%	+2.04	+5.5	30
1946-06-02	@ Malmo	L 1-6	44.1	1450	1718	10.15%	19.32%	70.53%	-2.04	-5.5	16
1946-06-02	Goteborg	D 0-0	68.5	1809	1639	62.48%	21.45%	16.07%	+1.34	-1.5	35
1946-06-02	@ Norrkoping	D 0-0	68.5	1639	1809	16.07%	21.45%	62.48%	-1.34	+1.5	30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1945-09-09	10.52%	Halmstad	1456	1	@ Malmo	1716	0
2	1945-09-23	13.59%	GAIS	1514	1	@ Malmo	1720	0
3	1945-10-07	14.28%	@ Helsingborg	1485	2	Norrkoping	1746	1
4	1946-06-02	14.99%	Halmstad	1410	2	@ AIK Stockholm	1594	0
5	1945-11-04	16.58%	@ Djurgarden	1412	3	Goteborg	1641	0
6	1945-11-11	18.03%	AIK Stockholm	1587	3	@ Malmo	1732	1
7	1946-05-26	18.51%	@ Jonkoping	1423	1	Degerfors	1628	0
8	1946-05-30	18.75%	Halmia	1484	4	@ Degerfors	1620	0
9	1946-05-05	19.27%	@ Djurgarden	1434	2	Degerfors	1630	1
10	1945-09-16	20.74%	@ Helsingborg	1473	2	Goteborg	1652	1
11	1945-09-23	20.74%	Helsingborg	1479	4	@ AIK Stockholm	1593	3
12	1946-05-30	20.88%	@ Jonkoping	1430	5	AIK Stockholm	1608	2
13	1945-08-05	20.94%	Jonkoping	1489	2	@ AIK Stockholm	1601	1
14	1945-11-04	21.89%	@ Halmia	1499	2	Elfsborg	1666	1
15	1945-07-29	22.94%	@ Goteborg	1601	2	Norrkoping	1758	0
16	1946-05-17	23.17%	GAIS	1552	3	@ Goteborg	1641	1
17	1945-10-28	23.26%	Djurgarden	1399	5	@ Helsingborg	1488	2
18	1945-11-11	26.01%	@ GAIS	1532	5	Elfsborg	1659	3
19	1945-09-09	26.66%	Helsingborg	1467	2	@ Halmia	1524	1
20	1946-05-05	27.39%	AIK Stockholm	1604	1	@ Elfsborg	1656	0
21	1946-05-26	27.43%	Djurgarden	1443	3	@ Halmia	1494	1
22	1945-08-05	27.84%	Goteborg	1614	2	@ Elfsborg	1661	1
23	1945-09-09	28.68%	@ Elfsborg	1645	2	Norrkoping	1750	0
24	1945-11-11	30.69%	Goteborg	1620	1	@ Degerfors	1645	0
25	1945-09-02	31.41%	@ Goteborg	1642	3	Malmo	1725	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1946-05-30	25.72	Halmia	4	1484	18.75%	@ Degerfors	0	1620	59.23%	22.02%
2	1945-11-04	20.55	@ Djurgarden	3	1412	16.58%	Goteborg	0	1641	62.29%	21.13%
3	1946-05-05	19.35	@ Helsingborg	5	1467	43.98%	Jonkoping	0	1459	32.76%	23.26%
4	1945-08-12	16.96	@ Goteborg	7	1626	58.64%	Jonkoping	0	1496	19.25%	22.11%
5	1946-05-05	16.91	@ Norrkoping	5	1771	49.24%	Malmo	0	1723	27.72%	23.04%
6	1945-09-02	15.18	Halmia	4	1509	45.44%	@ Djurgarden	0	1427	31.46%	23.10%
7	1946-06-02	14.53	Halmstad	2	1410	14.99%	@ AIK Stockholm	0	1594	63.85%	21.16%
8	1946-05-30	13.86	@ Jonkoping	5	1430	20.88%	AIK Stockholm	2	1608	57.09%	22.03%
9	1945-10-28	13.23	Djurgarden	5	1399	23.26%	@ Helsingborg	2	1488	54.08%	22.66%
10	1945-07-29	12.57	@ Goteborg	2	1601	22.94%	Norrkoping	0	1758	54.71%	22.34%
11	1945-09-16	12.33	Malmo	7	1708	58.33%	@ Halmia	1	1518	19.82%	21.85%
12	1945-11-11	11.90	AIK Stockholm	3	1587	18.03%	@ Malmo	1	1732	60.09%	21.88%
13	1945-09-09	11.29	@ Elfsborg	2	1645	28.68%	Norrkoping	0	1750	48.39%	22.93%
14	1946-05-17	10.82	GAIS	3	1552	23.17%	@ Goteborg	1	1641	54.17%	22.66%
15	1945-09-02	10.32	@ Helsingborg	2	1456	33.36%	GAIS	0	1524	43.45%	23.19%
16	1946-05-12	10.13	Goteborg	4	1631	58.57%	@ Jonkoping	0	1440	19.63%	21.81%
17	1945-09-16	10.07	@ Djurgarden	2	1406	34.64%	Halmstad	0	1464	42.13%	23.23%
18	1945-08-19	10.01	@ Jonkoping	4	1479	44.50%	Helsingborg	1	1466	32.25%	23.24%
19	1946-05-26	9.99	Djurgarden	3	1443	27.43%	@ Halmia	1	1494	49.54%	23.03%
20	1946-04-28	9.63	@ GAIS	3	1541	52.16%	Jonkoping	0	1469	25.00%	22.84%
21	1946-06-02	9.62	Degerfors	2	1595	36.96%	@ GAIS	0	1573	39.74%	23.30%
22	1945-09-09	9.53	Degerfors	2	1629	37.45%	@ AIK Stockholm	0	1603	39.25%	23.30%
23	1945-09-02	9.28	@ Goteborg	3	1642	31.41%	Malmo	1	1725	45.49%	23.10%
24	1945-10-14	8.83	@ AIK Stockholm	3	1587	34.01%	Goteborg	1	1650	42.78%	23.21%
25	1945-11-11	8.69	@ GAIS	5	1532	26.01%	Elfsborg	3	1659	51.29%	22.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1946-06-02	77.5	@ Elfsborg	4	1635	61.98%	Helsingborg	4	1471	16.48%	21.54%
2	1945-07-29	75.5	@ Helsingborg	3	1475	20.09%	Elfsborg	3	1662	58.02%	21.89%
3	1945-10-07	73.8	@ Halmia	3	1507	31.75%	AIK Stockholm	3	1587	45.13%	23.12%
4	1945-11-04	72.8	@ Helsingborg	3	1474	27.72%	AIK Stockholm	3	1587	49.42%	22.86%
5	1945-07-29	72.3	@ Djurgarden	2	1437	13.20%	Malmo	2	1715	66.72%	20.08%
6	1945-09-23	72.2	@ Elfsborg	2	1662	61.22%	Halmia	2	1506	17.10%	21.68%
7	1945-08-19	71.5	@ Halmia	2	1508	25.26%	Goteborg	2	1643	52.11%	22.63%
8	1945-09-23	71.3	Helsingborg	4	1479	20.74%	@ AIK Stockholm	3	1593	56.92%	22.34%
9	1945-08-19	71.1	@ Malmo	1	1725	40.03%	Norrkoping	1	1745	36.67%	23.30%
10	1946-04-28	70.6	@ Malmo	1	1724	54.83%	Degerfors	1	1629	22.59%	22.59%
11	1946-05-26	70.5	@ Malmo	1	1714	53.54%	Goteborg	1	1631	23.75%	22.72%
12	1946-04-14	70.1	@ Goteborg	2	1626	61.16%	Helsingborg	2	1470	17.14%	21.69%
13	1945-09-16	70.0	@ GAIS	2	1514	31.85%	AIK Stockholm	2	1593	45.03%	23.12%
14	1945-10-14	69.9	@ Elfsborg	1	1667	46.77%	Degerfors	1	1638	30.06%	23.17%
15	1945-11-11	69.7	@ GAIS	5	1532	26.01%	Elfsborg	3	1659	51.29%	22.70%
16	1945-10-07	69.5	@ Helsingborg	2	1485	14.28%	Norrkoping	1	1746	65.26%	20.46%
17	1945-10-28	69.5	@ Goteborg	1	1641	43.18%	Degerfors	1	1639	33.55%	23.27%
18	1946-05-19	69.5	@ Helsingborg	3	1482	41.11%	Halmia	3	1494	35.60%	23.30%
19	1946-04-22	68.6	@ Goteborg	1	1625	46.47%	AIK Stockholm	1	1598	30.35%	23.18%
20	1946-06-02	68.5	@ Norrkoping	0	1809	62.48%	Goteborg	0	1639	16.07%	21.45%
21	1945-10-28	68.4	@ Elfsborg	1	1667	58.97%	GAIS	1	1533	18.97%	22.06%
22	1946-04-22	68.3	Elfsborg	3	1649	36.09%	@ Degerfors	2	1633	40.61%	23.30%
23	1945-11-11	67.2	AIK Stockholm	3	1587	18.03%	@ Malmo	1	1732	60.09%	21.88%
24	1945-08-12	67.1	@ Norrkoping	0	1747	67.51%	GAIS	0	1519	12.24%	20.25%
25	1946-04-14	66.6	@ AIK Stockholm	1	1599	50.49%	GAIS	1	1540	26.55%	22.96%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1946-05-05	40.2	@ Helsingborg	5	1467	43.98%	Jonkoping	0	1459	32.76%	23.26%
2	1945-09-02	40.3	Halmia	4	1509	45.44%	@ Djurgarden	0	1427	31.46%	23.10%
3	1945-11-04	40.9	@ Degerfors	3	1639	65.01%	Halmstad	0	1441	14.09%	20.90%
4	1945-10-07	41.0	Elfsborg	3	1661	64.16%	@ Djurgarden	0	1413	15.12%	20.72%
5	1946-05-12	41.3	Goteborg	4	1631	58.57%	@ Jonkoping	0	1440	19.63%	21.81%
6	1945-10-14	42.2	@ Norrkoping	11	1739	74.81%	Djurgarden	1	1407	7.50%	17.69%
7	1946-04-28	42.2	@ GAIS	3	1541	52.16%	Jonkoping	0	1469	25.00%	22.84%
8	1946-05-26	42.4	@ Elfsborg	5	1637	66.92%	Halmstad	1	1416	12.67%	20.41%
9	1945-10-21	43.2	@ Jonkoping	2	1469	45.55%	Halmstad	0	1449	31.24%	23.21%
10	1945-09-23	43.5	Degerfors	3	1634	57.40%	@ Halmstad	0	1454	20.61%	21.99%
11	1945-09-02	43.8	@ Degerfors	3	1621	58.84%	Jonkoping	0	1489	19.09%	22.08%
12	1946-05-05	43.8	GAIS	2	1551	50.86%	@ Halmstad	0	1426	26.40%	22.74%
13	1945-08-12	44.0	@ Goteborg	7	1626	58.64%	Jonkoping	0	1496	19.25%	22.11%
14	1946-06-02	44.1	@ Malmo	6	1718	70.53%	Djurgarden	1	1450	10.15%	19.32%
15	1945-09-09	44.9	@ Jonkoping	3	1481	51.85%	Djurgarden	1	1411	25.28%	22.86%
16	1945-09-16	45.0	@ Djurgarden	2	1406	34.64%	Halmstad	0	1464	42.13%	23.23%
17	1946-05-26	45.6	@ GAIS	2	1563	53.22%	Helsingborg	0	1482	24.03%	22.75%
18	1945-11-11	45.7	Norrkoping	3	1755	64.28%	@ Halmia	0	1505	15.03%	20.70%
19	1946-05-12	46.0	@ Degerfors	2	1623	59.22%	Helsingborg	0	1487	18.76%	22.02%
20	1945-09-23	46.3	@ Goteborg	3	1645	67.62%	Djurgarden	1	1416	12.16%	20.22%
21	1945-08-19	46.7	@ Jonkoping	4	1479	44.50%	Helsingborg	1	1466	32.25%	23.24%
22	1945-11-04	46.7	Norrkoping	6	1748	66.12%	@ Jonkoping	1	1477	13.64%	20.24%
23	1946-05-30	47.0	Norrkoping	1	1808	75.32%	@ Halmstad	0	1411	7.58%	17.10%
24	1946-05-30	47.0	Malmo	2	1714	63.22%	@ Helsingborg	0	1475	15.85%	20.94%
25	1945-07-29	47.2	AIK Stockholm	2	1594	50.46%	@ Halmstad	0	1473	26.77%	22.77%