1953-54 Allsvenskan Season

132 games

Final

Champion

GAIS

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

GAIS

4.78 points above expected

27 points · 22.22 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Jonkoping

4.30 points below expected

17 points · 21.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	GAIS	22	10	7	5	27	46	39	+7	22.22	+4.78
2	Helsingborg	22	11	4	7	26	41	30	+11	25.16	+0.84
3	Degerfors	22	10	5	7	25	30	34	-4	22.84	+2.16
4	AIK Stockholm	22	10	4	8	24	47	31	+16	23.11	+0.89
5	Norrkoping	22	6	12	4	24	33	28	+5	25.16	-1.16
6	Djurgarden	22	7	8	7	22	44	30	+14	23.37	-1.37
7	Malmo	22	8	6	8	22	33	30	+3	25.04	-3.04
8	Goteborg	22	7	8	7	22	23	26	-3	21.36	+0.64
9	Kalmar	22	9	3	10	21	32	42	-10	20.33	+0.67
10	Sandvikens IF	22	7	5	10	19	29	37	-8	15.50	+3.50
11	Jonkoping	22	6	5	11	17	34	41	-7	21.30	-4.30
12	Elfsborg	22	5	5	12	15	24	48	-24	18.61	-3.61

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	GAIS	27	22.22	+4.78
2	Sandvikens IF	19	15.50	+3.50
3	Degerfors	25	22.84	+2.16
4	AIK Stockholm	24	23.11	+0.89
5	Helsingborg	26	25.16	+0.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Jonkoping	17	21.30	-4.30
2	Elfsborg	15	18.61	-3.61
3	Malmo	22	25.04	-3.04
4	Djurgarden	22	23.37	-1.37
5	Norrkoping	24	25.16	-1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Goteborg	4	Sep 27 – Oct 25	1 in 138
2	Kalmar	4	Aug 23 – Sep 13	1 in 87
3	AIK Stockholm	4	Apr 11 – May 2	1 in 71
4	Helsingborg	4	Aug 2 – Aug 21	1 in 66
5	Sandvikens IF	2	Aug 9 – Aug 12	1 in 53

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Malmo	5	Aug 12 – Sep 13	1 in 1,061
2	Goteborg	4	Aug 2 – Aug 21	1 in 146
3	AIK Stockholm	3	Aug 2 – Aug 12	1 in 60
4	Kalmar	4	Oct 31 – Apr 25	1 in 38
5	Jonkoping	4	May 2 – May 23	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Goteborg	9	Aug 30 – Nov 1	1 in 189
2	Malmo	9	Oct 31 – May 27	1 in 37
3	Kalmar	7	Aug 12 – Sep 27	1 in 34
4	AIK Stockholm	8	Apr 11 – May 27	1 in 20
5	Djurgarden	7	Oct 4 – Apr 25	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Malmo	8	Aug 9 – Sep 27	1 in 137
2	Elfsborg	8	Oct 11 – May 9	1 in 23
3	Norrkoping	5	Sep 27 – Nov 1	1 in 19
4	Jonkoping	7	Apr 11 – May 23	1 in 19
5	Goteborg	6	Aug 2 – Sep 6	1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
GAIS	1703	27	+14	8	5.4	+2.6
Helsingborg	1730	26	+10	6	6.0	+0.0
Degerfors	1685	25	-2	6	4.8	+1.2
AIK Stockholm	1742	24	+14	6	5.8	+0.2
Norrkoping	1741	24	-11	4	6.0	-2.0
Malmo	1735	22	+15	7	5.4	+1.6
Djurgarden	1724	22	+16	6	5.3	+0.7
Goteborg	1662	22	-15	4	5.2	-1.2
Kalmar	1626	21	-11	3	4.3	-1.3
Sandvikens IF	1551	19	-11	3	3.2	-0.2
Jonkoping	1643	17	-13	3	4.7	-1.7
Elfsborg	1594	15	-5	4	4.0	-0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AS	DEG	DJU	ELF	GAI	GOT	HEL	JON	KAL	MAL	NOR	SI
AIK Stockholm	—	0-0-2 3.00	1-1-0 2.71	0-1-1 3.51	1-1-0 2.71	1-1-0 2.83	2-0-0 2.48	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.47	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 3.81
Degerfors	2-0-0 2.42	—	0-2-0 2.67	2-0-0 3.17	0-0-2 2.78	0-0-2 2.92	1-0-1 2.40	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 3.09	0-1-1 2.35	1-1-0 2.27	2-0-0 3.63
Djurgarden	0-1-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.76	—	1-1-0 3.19	0-1-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 2.52	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.40	0-1-1 2.35	1-1-0 3.71
Elfsborg	1-1-0 1.93	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 2.24	—	0-0-2 2.19	1-1-0 2.40	0-0-2 2.08	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 1.96	1-1-0 1.78	0-1-1 3.31
GAIS	0-1-1 2.72	2-0-0 2.65	1-1-0 2.59	2-0-0 3.24	—	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.34	0-1-1 3.03	1-0-1 3.03	1-1-0 2.37	0-2-0 2.37	1-0-1 3.70
Goteborg	0-1-1 2.60	2-0-0 2.51	1-0-1 2.50	0-1-1 3.04	0-1-1 2.56	—	1-1-0 2.20	0-2-0 2.63	1-0-1 2.91	2-0-0 2.36	0-2-0 2.14	0-0-2 3.57
Helsingborg	0-0-2 2.95	1-0-1 3.02	1-1-0 2.91	2-0-0 3.37	1-0-1 3.09	0-1-1 3.23	—	2-0-0 3.11	1-1-0 3.35	1-1-0 2.68	0-0-2 2.72	2-0-0 3.93
Jonkoping	1-0-1 2.49	0-1-1 2.59	0-0-2 2.72	2-0-0 3.02	1-1-0 2.40	0-2-0 2.80	0-0-2 2.32	—	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.17	0-1-1 2.17	0-0-2 3.66
Kalmar	1-0-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.34	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.08	1-0-1 2.49	—	0-1-1 2.23	0-1-1 1.96	2-0-0 3.27
Malmo	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 3.08	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 3.48	0-1-1 3.06	0-0-2 3.07	0-1-1 2.75	1-0-1 3.26	1-1-0 3.20	—	1-1-0 2.47	1-1-0 3.81
Norrkoping	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 3.16	1-1-0 3.08	0-1-1 3.67	0-2-0 3.06	0-2-0 3.30	2-0-0 2.70	1-1-0 3.26	1-1-0 3.49	0-1-1 2.96	—	0-2-0 4.02
Sandvikens IF	1-0-1 1.65	0-0-2 1.82	0-1-1 1.75	1-1-0 2.13	1-0-1 1.76	2-0-0 1.88	0-0-2 1.56	2-0-0 1.80	0-0-2 2.17	0-1-1 1.66	0-2-0 1.47	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.34	+2.6
Allowed	0.36	-3.2
Differential	0.57	+2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.82%	6.44%	3.41%	4.17%	0.76%	2.27%	23.86%
1	6.44%	9.09%	6.44%	4.17%	3.03%	1.52%	30.68%
2	3.41%	6.44%	9.85%	3.41%	—	—	23.11%
3	4.17%	4.17%	3.41%	1.52%	0.38%	0.38%	14.02%
4	0.76%	3.03%	—	0.38%	—	—	4.17%
5+	2.27%	1.52%	—	0.38%	—	—	4.17%
Total	23.86%	30.68%	23.11%	14.02%	4.17%	4.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.58	1.58	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.36	2.09
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	22.73%	40.91%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.41	+0.73
SD	1.78	1.18	2.57
CV	0.83	0.84	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	13.64%	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.55	-0.18
SD	1.09	1.57	1.92
CV	0.80	1.01	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
2	—	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	36.36%	18.18%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.36	+0.64
SD	1.80	1.40	2.48
CV	0.90	1.03	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
1	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	40.91%
2	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	22.73%	18.18%	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	2.18	-1.09
SD	0.87	1.71	2.11
CV	0.80	0.78	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	18.18%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.77	+0.32
SD	1.34	1.57	2.12
CV	0.64	0.89	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	18.18%	22.73%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	54.55%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	40.91%	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.18	-0.14
SD	0.79	1.30	1.61
CV	0.75	1.10	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	36.36%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	1.36	+0.50
SD	1.46	1.22	2.13
CV	0.78	0.89	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	31.82%
1	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	13.64%	40.91%	22.73%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.86	-0.32
SD	1.50	1.25	2.19
CV	0.97	0.67	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	36.36%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
2	—	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.55%	50.00%	13.64%	22.73%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.91	-0.45
SD	1.34	1.34	2.13
CV	0.92	0.70	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	13.64%	31.82%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.36	+0.14
SD	1.57	1.26	2.21
CV	1.04	0.92	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	27.27%	31.82%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.27	+0.23
SD	1.14	1.24	1.60
CV	0.76	0.98	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	31.82%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.68	-0.36
SD	0.95	1.13	1.53
CV	0.72	0.67	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
AIK Stockholm	1742	24	23.11	+0.89	61.0%	13	16	20	24	26	29	33
Norrkoping	1741	24	25.16	-1.16	42.0%	15	19	22	25	28	32	34
Malmo	1735	22	25.04	-3.04	18.0%	16	20	23	25	27	29	37
Helsingborg	1730	26	25.16	+0.84	59.0%	14	18	21	25	28	31	37
Djurgarden	1724	22	23.37	-1.37	42.0%	11	17	21	23	26	29	33
GAIS	1703	27	22.22	+4.78	91.0%	10	15	20	22	25	28	32
Degerfors	1685	25	22.84	+2.16	70.0%	13	16	20	22	26	30	32
Goteborg	1662	22	21.36	+0.64	63.0%	14	15	19	21	24	29	32
Jonkoping	1643	17	21.30	-4.30	16.0%	13	14	19	21	24	27	29
Kalmar	1626	21	20.33	+0.67	60.0%	7	13	18	20	23	26	30
Elfsborg	1594	15	18.61	-3.61	20.0%	9	12	16	19	21	25	26
Sandvikens IF	1551	19	15.50	+3.50	85.0%	7	9	13	15	18	21	25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 19.5% * Strong Edge: 19.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+15.15%

Clear Edge

43.94%27.27%28.79%

Elo Value

Home Edge

163 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

053.05500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.52 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.23 * Runaway: 0.23 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.9

Wide Open

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

GAIS, 7th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.13 * Some Luck: 3.13 to 4.7 * Lucky: 4.7 to 6.26 * Wild Swing: 6.26 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.03 * Close: 2.03 to 3.05 * Off: 3.05 to 4.06 * Way Off: 4.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.68 points

As Expected

03.9110

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.17

02.546

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

91.00%

GAIS

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

16.00%

Jonkoping

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 66.5% * Clear Edge: 66.5% to 71.5% * Wide Edge: 71.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 83.5% * Clear Edge: 83.5% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 90.5% * Dominant: 90.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58.5% * Frequent: 58.5% to 62.5% * Very Frequent: 62.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.09

Balanced

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 63.45

0.90

Coin-Flip Parity

0.951.41.652.75

Interquartile Edge

63%

Even

50%63%71.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

75%

Even

50%78%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Frequent

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Frequent

0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.3 * Slight Separation: 0.3 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.53 * Strong Carryover: 0.53 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 22.5% * As Expected: 22.5% to 25% * Upset-Prone: 25% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 24% * Very Shaky: 24% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Slight Separation

00.30.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.50

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.68

Strong Carryover

00.380.530.691

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

Very Upset-Prone

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.01

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.39

Overconfident

0.2067911.001.79321

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.098

Well Within Noise

00.1430.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
GAIS	7.00%	6.00%	4.00%	14.00%	10.00%	15.00%	8.00%	9.00%	9.00%	10.00%	3.00%	5.00%
Helsingborg	26.00%	13.00%	14.00%	7.00%	8.00%	3.00%	11.00%	7.00%	4.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Degerfors	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	11.00%	7.00%	10.00%	8.00%	15.00%	6.00%	5.00%	8.00%	4.00%
AIK Stockholm	8.00%	10.00%	16.00%	8.00%	12.00%	13.00%	2.00%	8.00%	9.00%	8.00%	2.00%	4.00%
Norrkoping	25.00%	10.00%	13.00%	13.00%	10.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—	1.00%
Djurgarden	11.00%	14.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	11.00%	18.00%	7.00%	2.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Malmo	10.00%	18.00%	21.00%	12.00%	14.00%	10.00%	9.00%	3.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—
Goteborg	2.00%	10.00%	2.00%	8.00%	10.00%	3.00%	15.00%	14.00%	11.00%	9.00%	12.00%	4.00%
Kalmar	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	3.00%	10.00%	6.00%	9.00%	10.00%	14.00%	16.00%	18.00%	5.00%
Sandvikens IF	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%	13.00%	6.00%	24.00%	49.00%
Jonkoping	2.00%	6.00%	4.00%	10.00%	7.00%	16.00%	7.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	10.00%	5.00%
Elfsborg	—	—	3.00%	5.00%	4.00%	5.00%	2.00%	8.00%	15.00%	21.00%	17.00%	20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Malmo	98.00%	2.00%
Norrkoping	96.00%	4.00%
Helsingborg	93.00%	7.00%
Djurgarden	89.00%	11.00%
AIK Stockholm	86.00%	14.00%
Degerfors	83.00%	17.00%
GAIS	82.00%	18.00%
Goteborg	75.00%	25.00%
Jonkoping	74.00%	26.00%
Kalmar	61.00%	39.00%
Elfsborg	42.00%	58.00%
Sandvikens IF	21.00%	79.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1953-08-02	Degerfors	L 1-2	68.8	1698	1693	46.78%	28.62%	24.60%	+0.35	-4.9	0
1953-08-02	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-1	68.8	1693	1698	24.60%	28.62%	46.78%	-0.35	+4.9	2
1953-08-02	Helsingborg	L 0-3	55.8	1644	1716	36.63%	28.90%	34.47%	-0.12	-11.7	0
1953-08-02	@ Elfsborg	W 3-0	55.8	1716	1644	34.47%	28.90%	36.63%	+0.12	+11.7	2
1953-08-02	Jonkoping	L 1-6	62.4	1691	1667	49.11%	28.38%	22.51%	+0.47	-19.8	0
1953-08-02	@ GAIS	W 6-1	62.4	1667	1691	22.51%	28.38%	49.11%	-0.47	+19.8	2
1953-08-02	Goteborg	W 2-1	62.5	1642	1667	43.01%	28.86%	28.13%	+0.17	+3.3	2
1953-08-02	@ Kalmar	L 1-2	62.5	1667	1642	28.13%	28.86%	43.01%	-0.17	-3.3	0
1953-08-02	Djurgarden	W 2-0	52.4	1756	1688	54.01%	27.60%	18.39%	+0.74	+4.7	2
1953-08-02	@ Malmo	L 0-2	52.4	1688	1756	18.39%	27.60%	54.01%	-0.74	-4.8	0
1953-08-02	Norrkoping	D 0-0	64.7	1539	1736	21.68%	27.08%	51.24%	-0.88	+0.8	1
1953-08-02	@ Sandvikens IF	D 0-0	64.7	1736	1539	51.24%	27.08%	21.68%	+0.88	-0.8	1
1953-08-09	Malmo	D 2-2	75.3	1698	1761	37.99%	28.92%	33.09%	-0.06	-0.1	3
1953-08-09	@ Degerfors	D 2-2	75.3	1761	1698	33.09%	28.92%	37.99%	+0.06	+0.1	3
1953-08-09	GAIS	D 2-2	74.8	1683	1671	47.67%	28.54%	23.79%	+0.40	-0.4	1
1953-08-09	@ Djurgarden	D 2-2	74.8	1671	1683	23.79%	28.54%	47.67%	-0.40	+0.4	1
1953-08-09	Sandvikens IF	L 0-1	64.3	1664	1540	59.62%	26.18%	14.20%	+1.08	-6.4	0
1953-08-09	@ Goteborg	W 1-0	64.3	1540	1664	14.20%	26.18%	59.62%	-1.08	+6.4	3
1953-08-09	Kalmar	W 5-0	49.5	1728	1646	55.51%	27.28%	17.21%	+0.83	+10.5	4
1953-08-09	@ Helsingborg	L 0-5	49.5	1646	1728	17.21%	27.28%	55.51%	-0.83	-10.5	2
1953-08-09	Elfsborg	W 3-0	50.0	1687	1632	52.56%	27.87%	19.56%	+0.66	+7.3	4
1953-08-09	@ Jonkoping	L 0-3	50.0	1632	1687	19.56%	27.87%	52.56%	-0.66	-7.3	0
1953-08-09	AIK Stockholm	W 4-1	56.6	1735	1693	51.13%	28.11%	20.77%	+0.58	+6.4	3
1953-08-09	@ Norrkoping	L 1-4	56.6	1693	1735	20.77%	28.11%	51.13%	-0.58	-6.4	0
1953-08-12	Sandvikens IF	L 1-3	68.0	1687	1546	61.14%	25.68%	13.18%	+1.19	-10.7	0
1953-08-12	@ AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	68.0	1546	1687	13.18%	25.68%	61.14%	-1.19	+10.7	5
1953-08-12	Djurgarden	D 0-0	65.4	1698	1683	48.07%	28.50%	23.44%	+0.42	-0.7	4
1953-08-12	@ Degerfors	D 0-0	65.4	1683	1698	23.44%	28.50%	48.07%	-0.42	+0.6	2
1953-08-12	Goteborg	W 1-0	57.4	1625	1657	42.02%	28.89%	29.09%	+0.13	+3.6	2
1953-08-12	@ Elfsborg	L 0-1	57.4	1657	1625	29.09%	28.89%	42.02%	-0.13	-3.6	0
1953-08-12	Helsingborg	L 2-3	71.5	1672	1738	37.40%	28.91%	33.68%	-0.08	-3.9	1
1953-08-12	@ GAIS	W 3-2	71.5	1738	1672	33.68%	28.91%	37.40%	+0.08	+3.9	6
1953-08-12	Norrkoping	D 3-3	79.3	1635	1741	31.94%	28.67%	39.39%	-0.32	+0.1	3
1953-08-12	@ Kalmar	D 3-3	79.3	1741	1635	39.39%	28.67%	31.94%	+0.32	-0.1	4
1953-08-12	Jonkoping	L 1-2	71.0	1761	1694	53.89%	27.62%	18.48%	+0.73	-5.5	3
1953-08-12	@ Malmo	W 2-1	71.0	1694	1761	18.48%	27.62%	53.89%	-0.73	+5.5	6
1953-08-21	AIK Stockholm	L 2-3	74.0	1683	1676	47.11%	28.59%	24.30%	+0.37	-4.7	2
1953-08-21	@ Djurgarden	W 3-2	74.0	1676	1683	24.30%	28.59%	47.11%	-0.37	+4.7	2
1953-08-21	GAIS	L 1-2	67.5	1654	1668	44.45%	28.79%	26.77%	+0.24	-4.7	0
1953-08-21	@ Goteborg	W 2-1	67.5	1668	1654	26.77%	28.79%	44.45%	-0.24	+4.7	3
1953-08-21	Helsingborg	L 1-2	69.6	1755	1742	47.79%	28.52%	23.68%	+0.40	-5.0	3
1953-08-21	@ Malmo	W 2-1	69.6	1742	1755	23.68%	28.52%	47.79%	-0.40	+5.0	8
1953-08-23	Degerfors	D 0-0	65.5	1699	1698	46.43%	28.65%	24.92%	+0.34	-0.6	7
1953-08-23	@ Jonkoping	D 0-0	65.5	1698	1699	24.92%	28.65%	46.43%	-0.34	+0.6	5
1953-08-23	Elfsborg	D 1-1	69.9	1741	1629	58.54%	26.50%	14.96%	+1.01	-1.1	5
1953-08-23	@ Norrkoping	D 1-1	69.9	1629	1741	14.96%	26.50%	58.54%	-1.01	+1.1	3
1953-08-23	Kalmar	L 1-2	62.8	1557	1635	35.77%	28.87%	35.36%	-0.15	-4.0	5
1953-08-23	@ Sandvikens IF	W 2-1	62.8	1635	1557	35.36%	28.87%	35.77%	+0.15	+4.0	5
1953-08-30	Goteborg	D 1-1	69.0	1681	1649	49.99%	28.27%	21.75%	+0.52	-0.7	3
1953-08-30	@ AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	69.0	1649	1681	21.75%	28.27%	49.99%	-0.52	+0.7	1
1953-08-30	Degerfors	L 3-4	73.9	1630	1698	37.13%	28.91%	33.96%	-0.09	-3.8	3
1953-08-30	@ Elfsborg	W 4-3	73.9	1698	1630	33.96%	28.91%	37.13%	+0.09	+3.8	7
1953-08-30	Malmo	W 3-0	55.9	1672	1750	35.84%	28.87%	35.29%	-0.15	+11.4	5
1953-08-30	@ GAIS	L 0-3	55.9	1750	1672	35.29%	28.87%	35.84%	+0.15	-11.4	3
1953-08-30	Djurgarden	W 2-1	63.2	1639	1679	41.08%	28.91%	30.01%	+0.08	+3.5	7
1953-08-30	@ Kalmar	L 1-2	63.2	1679	1639	30.01%	28.91%	41.08%	-0.08	-3.5	2
1953-08-30	Helsingborg	W 2-0	55.2	1740	1747	45.32%	28.73%	25.95%	+0.28	+6.3	7
1953-08-30	@ Norrkoping	L 0-2	55.2	1747	1740	25.95%	28.73%	45.32%	-0.28	-6.3	8
1953-08-30	Jonkoping	W 3-2	71.8	1553	1699	27.02%	28.14%	44.85%	-0.57	+4.5	7
1953-08-30	@ Sandvikens IF	L 2-3	71.8	1699	1553	44.85%	28.14%	27.02%	+0.57	-4.5	7
1953-09-06	GAIS	L 0-1	64.1	1702	1684	48.39%	28.46%	23.15%	+0.44	-5.3	7
1953-09-06	@ Degerfors	W 1-0	64.1	1684	1702	23.15%	28.46%	48.39%	-0.44	+5.3	7
1953-09-06	Elfsborg	W 6-0	50.5	1675	1626	52.01%	27.97%	20.02%	+0.63	+14.2	4
1953-09-06	@ Djurgarden	L 0-6	50.5	1626	1675	20.02%	27.97%	52.01%	-0.63	-14.2	3
1953-09-06	Norrkoping	D 1-1	69.4	1650	1746	33.23%	28.75%	38.02%	-0.27	+0.1	2
1953-09-06	@ Goteborg	D 1-1	69.4	1746	1650	38.02%	28.75%	33.23%	+0.27	-0.1	8
1953-09-06	Sandvikens IF	W 1-0	50.8	1741	1558	64.86%	24.26%	10.88%	+1.45	+1.5	10
1953-09-06	@ Helsingborg	L 0-1	50.8	1558	1741	10.88%	24.26%	64.86%	-1.45	-1.5	7
1953-09-06	Kalmar	L 2-3	75.1	1694	1643	52.26%	27.92%	19.81%	+0.64	-5.1	7
1953-09-06	@ Jonkoping	W 3-2	75.1	1643	1694	19.81%	27.92%	52.26%	-0.64	+5.1	9
1953-09-06	AIK Stockholm	L 0-3	60.9	1739	1680	53.02%	27.79%	19.19%	+0.68	-15.8	3
1953-09-06	@ Malmo	W 3-0	60.9	1680	1739	19.19%	27.79%	53.02%	-0.68	+15.8	5
1953-09-13	GAIS	D 1-1	69.4	1696	1689	47.02%	28.60%	24.38%	+0.37	-0.5	6
1953-09-13	@ AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	69.4	1689	1696	24.38%	28.60%	47.02%	-0.37	+0.5	8
1953-09-13	Malmo	W 2-0	58.4	1612	1723	31.28%	28.62%	40.10%	-0.36	+8.6	5
1953-09-13	@ Elfsborg	L 0-2	58.4	1723	1612	40.10%	28.62%	31.28%	+0.36	-8.6	3
1953-09-13	Helsingborg	W 1-0	61.0	1650	1742	33.79%	28.79%	37.42%	-0.24	+4.3	4
1953-09-13	@ Goteborg	L 0-1	61.0	1742	1650	37.42%	28.79%	33.79%	+0.24	-4.3	10
1953-09-13	Degerfors	W 3-1	61.5	1648	1697	39.85%	28.93%	31.22%	+0.03	+6.2	11
1953-09-13	@ Kalmar	L 1-3	61.5	1697	1648	31.22%	28.93%	39.85%	-0.03	-6.2	7
1953-09-13	Jonkoping	W 2-1	60.6	1746	1689	52.83%	27.82%	19.35%	+0.67	+2.5	10
1953-09-13	@ Norrkoping	L 1-2	60.6	1689	1746	19.35%	27.82%	52.83%	-0.67	-2.5	7
1953-09-13	Djurgarden	D 2-2	73.4	1556	1689	28.48%	28.33%	43.19%	-0.49	+0.2	8
1953-09-13	@ Sandvikens IF	D 2-2	73.4	1689	1556	43.19%	28.33%	28.48%	+0.49	-0.2	5
1953-09-20	Sandvikens IF	W 3-1	54.0	1690	1556	60.56%	25.88%	13.57%	+1.15	+3.1	9
1953-09-20	@ Degerfors	L 1-3	54.0	1556	1690	13.57%	25.88%	60.56%	-1.15	-3.1	8
1953-09-20	Norrkoping	L 0-1	61.6	1689	1749	38.39%	28.93%	32.69%	-0.04	-4.4	5
1953-09-20	@ Djurgarden	W 1-0	61.6	1749	1689	32.69%	28.93%	38.39%	+0.04	+4.4	12
1953-09-20	Elfsborg	W 1-0	54.1	1690	1620	54.18%	27.57%	18.25%	+0.75	+2.5	10
1953-09-20	@ GAIS	L 0-1	54.1	1620	1690	18.25%	27.57%	54.18%	-0.75	-2.5	5
1953-09-20	AIK Stockholm	L 1-3	67.9	1738	1695	51.24%	28.09%	20.67%	+0.59	-9.2	10
1953-09-20	@ Helsingborg	W 3-1	67.9	1695	1738	20.67%	28.09%	51.24%	-0.59	+9.2	8
1953-09-20	Goteborg	D 1-1	69.1	1687	1654	50.10%	28.25%	21.65%	+0.52	-0.7	8
1953-09-20	@ Jonkoping	D 1-1	69.1	1654	1687	21.65%	28.25%	50.10%	-0.52	+0.7	5
1953-09-20	Kalmar	D 0-0	65.5	1714	1654	53.19%	27.76%	19.05%	+0.69	-0.9	4
1953-09-20	@ Malmo	D 0-0	65.5	1654	1714	19.05%	27.76%	53.19%	-0.69	+0.9	12
1953-09-27	Elfsborg	L 0-2	62.6	1705	1618	55.98%	27.17%	16.85%	+0.86	-11.4	8
1953-09-27	@ AIK Stockholm	W 2-0	62.6	1618	1705	16.85%	27.17%	55.98%	-0.86	+11.4	7
1953-09-27	Djurgarden	W 2-0	55.1	1655	1685	42.38%	28.88%	28.74%	+0.14	+6.8	7
1953-09-27	@ Goteborg	L 0-2	55.1	1685	1655	28.74%	28.88%	42.38%	-0.14	-6.8	5
1953-09-27	Jonkoping	W 2-1	61.0	1729	1686	51.24%	28.09%	20.67%	+0.59	+2.6	12
1953-09-27	@ Helsingborg	L 1-2	61.0	1686	1729	20.67%	28.09%	51.24%	-0.59	-2.6	8
1953-09-27	GAIS	W 3-2	68.7	1655	1692	41.39%	28.91%	29.70%	+0.10	+3.3	14
1953-09-27	@ Kalmar	L 2-3	68.7	1692	1655	29.70%	28.91%	41.39%	-0.10	-3.3	10
1953-09-27	Degerfors	L 1-2	70.8	1753	1693	53.14%	27.77%	19.09%	+0.69	-5.5	12
1953-09-27	@ Norrkoping	W 2-1	70.8	1693	1753	19.09%	27.77%	53.14%	-0.69	+5.5	11
1953-09-27	Malmo	D 2-2	73.9	1553	1713	25.40%	27.88%	46.72%	-0.66	+0.4	9
1953-09-27	@ Sandvikens IF	D 2-2	73.9	1713	1553	46.72%	27.88%	25.40%	+0.66	-0.4	5
1953-10-04	Goteborg	L 0-1	64.5	1699	1662	50.62%	28.18%	21.20%	+0.55	-5.5	11
1953-10-04	@ Degerfors	W 1-0	64.5	1662	1699	21.20%	28.18%	50.62%	-0.55	+5.6	9
1953-10-04	Helsingborg	D 2-2	75.1	1678	1731	39.22%	28.93%	31.85%	+0.00	-0.1	6
1953-10-04	@ Djurgarden	D 2-2	75.1	1731	1678	31.85%	28.93%	39.22%	+0.00	+0.1	13
1953-10-04	Kalmar	W 2-1	62.4	1629	1658	42.49%	28.88%	28.64%	+0.15	+3.4	9
1953-10-04	@ Elfsborg	L 1-2	62.4	1658	1629	28.64%	28.88%	42.49%	-0.15	-3.4	14
1953-10-04	Sandvikens IF	W 3-1	53.9	1689	1554	60.68%	25.84%	13.48%	+1.15	+3.1	12
1953-10-04	@ GAIS	L 1-3	53.9	1554	1689	13.48%	25.84%	60.68%	-1.15	-3.1	9
1953-10-04	AIK Stockholm	W 3-0	52.8	1684	1693	45.00%	28.75%	26.25%	+0.27	+9.2	10
1953-10-04	@ Jonkoping	L 0-3	52.8	1693	1684	26.25%	28.75%	45.00%	-0.27	-9.2	8
1953-10-04	Norrkoping	W 2-0	56.2	1713	1748	41.73%	28.90%	29.37%	+0.11	+6.9	7
1953-10-04	@ Malmo	L 0-2	56.2	1748	1713	29.37%	28.90%	41.73%	-0.11	-6.9	12
1953-10-11	Kalmar	W 5-0	51.0	1684	1655	49.69%	28.31%	22.01%	+0.50	+12.9	10
1953-10-11	@ AIK Stockholm	L 0-5	51.0	1655	1684	22.01%	28.31%	49.69%	-0.50	-12.9	14
1953-10-11	Malmo	W 1-0	59.3	1667	1720	39.33%	28.93%	31.74%	+0.00	+3.9	11
1953-10-11	@ Goteborg	L 0-1	59.3	1720	1667	31.74%	28.93%	39.33%	+0.00	-3.9	7
1953-10-11	Degerfors	W 3-1	58.9	1731	1693	50.74%	28.16%	21.09%	+0.56	+4.6	15
1953-10-11	@ Helsingborg	L 1-3	58.9	1693	1731	21.09%	28.16%	50.74%	-0.56	-4.6	11
1953-10-11	Djurgarden	L 0-3	59.2	1693	1678	48.01%	28.50%	23.49%	+0.42	-14.5	10
1953-10-11	@ Jonkoping	W 3-0	59.2	1678	1693	23.49%	28.50%	48.01%	-0.42	+14.5	8
1953-10-11	GAIS	D 2-2	75.5	1741	1692	51.93%	27.98%	20.09%	+0.62	-0.6	13
1953-10-11	@ Norrkoping	D 2-2	75.5	1692	1741	20.09%	27.98%	51.93%	-0.62	+0.6	13
1953-10-11	Elfsborg	D 2-2	71.9	1550	1633	35.20%	28.85%	35.95%	-0.18	+0.0	10
1953-10-11	@ Sandvikens IF	D 2-2	71.9	1633	1550	35.95%	28.85%	35.20%	+0.18	-0.0	10
1953-10-25	Helsingborg	W 1-0	59.3	1689	1736	40.03%	28.93%	31.04%	+0.03	+3.8	13
1953-10-25	@ Degerfors	L 0-1	59.3	1736	1689	31.04%	28.93%	40.03%	-0.03	-3.8	15
1953-10-25	Jonkoping	W 5-0	51.8	1692	1678	47.94%	28.51%	23.56%	+0.41	+13.6	10
1953-10-25	@ Djurgarden	L 0-5	51.8	1678	1692	23.56%	28.51%	47.94%	-0.41	-13.6	10
1953-10-25	Sandvikens IF	L 1-2	68.0	1633	1550	55.51%	27.28%	17.21%	+0.83	-5.7	10
1953-10-25	@ Elfsborg	W 2-1	68.0	1550	1633	17.21%	27.28%	55.51%	-0.83	+5.7	12
1953-10-25	Norrkoping	D 2-2	75.2	1693	1740	40.01%	28.93%	31.07%	+0.03	-0.1	14
1953-10-25	@ GAIS	D 2-2	75.2	1740	1693	31.07%	28.93%	40.01%	-0.03	+0.1	14
1953-10-25	AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	61.7	1642	1697	39.02%	28.93%	32.05%	-0.01	+6.4	16
1953-10-25	@ Kalmar	L 1-3	61.7	1697	1642	32.05%	28.93%	39.02%	+0.01	-6.4	10
1953-10-25	Goteborg	L 0-2	62.1	1716	1671	51.49%	28.05%	20.46%	+0.60	-10.6	7
1953-10-25	@ Malmo	W 2-0	62.1	1671	1716	20.46%	28.05%	51.49%	-0.60	+10.6	13
1953-10-31	Malmo	L 0-1	63.1	1690	1705	44.32%	28.79%	26.89%	+0.23	-5.0	10
1953-10-31	@ AIK Stockholm	W 1-0	63.1	1705	1690	26.89%	28.79%	44.32%	-0.23	+5.0	9
1953-10-31	Djurgarden	D 2-2	74.5	1627	1706	35.64%	28.87%	35.50%	-0.16	+0.0	11
1953-10-31	@ Elfsborg	D 2-2	74.5	1706	1627	35.50%	28.87%	35.64%	+0.16	+0.0	11
1953-10-31	Jonkoping	L 2-3	72.7	1648	1665	44.15%	28.80%	27.05%	+0.23	-4.4	16
1953-10-31	@ Kalmar	W 3-2	72.7	1665	1648	27.05%	28.80%	44.15%	-0.23	+4.4	12
1953-10-31	Helsingborg	L 1-2	60.5	1556	1732	23.69%	27.55%	48.76%	-0.75	-2.9	12
1953-10-31	@ Sandvikens IF	W 2-1	60.5	1732	1556	48.76%	27.55%	23.69%	+0.75	+2.9	17
1953-11-01	Degerfors	W 4-1	57.8	1692	1692	46.19%	28.67%	25.14%	+0.32	+7.5	16
1953-11-01	@ GAIS	L 1-4	57.8	1692	1692	25.14%	28.67%	46.19%	-0.32	-7.5	13
1953-11-01	Goteborg	D 2-2	75.5	1740	1682	53.01%	27.79%	19.20%	+0.68	-0.6	15
1953-11-01	@ Norrkoping	D 2-2	75.5	1682	1740	19.20%	27.79%	53.01%	-0.68	+0.6	14
1954-04-11	Elfsborg	W 2-1	59.6	1685	1627	52.96%	27.80%	19.24%	+0.68	+2.5	15
1954-04-11	@ Degerfors	L 1-2	59.6	1627	1685	19.24%	27.80%	52.96%	-0.68	-2.5	11
1954-04-11	Kalmar	W 3-0	50.1	1706	1644	53.40%	27.72%	18.88%	+0.71	+7.0	13
1954-04-11	@ Djurgarden	L 0-3	50.1	1644	1706	18.88%	27.72%	53.40%	-0.71	-7.1	16
1954-04-11	AIK Stockholm	L 1-4	63.9	1682	1685	45.81%	28.70%	25.49%	+0.31	-11.8	14
1954-04-11	@ Goteborg	W 4-1	63.9	1685	1682	25.49%	28.70%	45.81%	-0.31	+11.8	12
1954-04-11	Norrkoping	L 0-3	59.2	1735	1740	45.63%	28.71%	25.66%	+0.30	-13.9	17
1954-04-11	@ Helsingborg	W 3-0	59.2	1740	1735	25.66%	28.71%	45.63%	-0.30	+13.9	17
1954-04-11	Sandvikens IF	L 1-2	69.6	1669	1553	58.85%	26.41%	14.74%	+1.03	-6.0	12
1954-04-11	@ Jonkoping	W 2-1	69.6	1553	1669	14.74%	26.41%	58.85%	-1.03	+6.0	14
1954-04-11	GAIS	D 1-1	69.6	1710	1700	47.47%	28.56%	23.98%	+0.39	-0.5	10
1954-04-11	@ Malmo	D 1-1	69.6	1700	1710	23.98%	28.56%	47.47%	-0.39	+0.5	17
1954-04-19	Helsingborg	W 4-1	59.0	1697	1721	43.14%	28.85%	28.00%	+0.18	+8.2	14
1954-04-19	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-4	59.0	1721	1697	28.00%	28.85%	43.14%	-0.18	-8.2	17
1954-04-19	GAIS	L 1-5	59.2	1624	1700	36.07%	28.88%	35.05%	-0.14	-12.6	11
1954-04-19	@ Elfsborg	W 5-1	59.2	1700	1624	35.05%	28.88%	36.07%	+0.14	+12.6	19
1954-04-19	Jonkoping	D 2-2	74.6	1671	1663	47.13%	28.59%	24.28%	+0.37	-0.4	15
1954-04-19	@ Goteborg	D 2-2	74.6	1663	1671	24.28%	28.59%	47.13%	-0.37	+0.4	13
1954-04-19	Malmo	L 0-1	60.4	1637	1710	36.51%	28.89%	34.59%	-0.12	-4.3	16
1954-04-19	@ Kalmar	W 1-0	60.4	1710	1637	34.59%	28.89%	36.51%	+0.12	+4.3	12
1954-04-19	Djurgarden	D 0-0	66.0	1754	1713	51.01%	28.12%	20.87%	+0.57	-0.8	18
1954-04-19	@ Norrkoping	D 0-0	66.0	1713	1754	20.87%	28.12%	51.01%	-0.57	+0.8	14
1954-04-19	Degerfors	L 0-1	56.7	1559	1687	29.12%	28.41%	42.48%	-0.46	-3.6	14
1954-04-19	@ Sandvikens IF	W 1-0	56.7	1687	1559	42.48%	28.41%	29.12%	+0.46	+3.6	17
1954-04-25	Kalmar	W 1-0	54.6	1691	1633	53.00%	27.79%	19.20%	+0.68	+2.6	19
1954-04-25	@ Degerfors	L 0-1	54.6	1633	1691	19.20%	27.79%	53.00%	-0.68	-2.6	16
1954-04-25	Sandvikens IF	W 2-1	56.1	1714	1556	62.73%	25.11%	12.16%	+1.29	+1.6	16
1954-04-25	@ Djurgarden	L 1-2	56.1	1556	1714	12.16%	25.11%	62.73%	-1.29	-1.6	14
1954-04-25	AIK Stockholm	L 1-5	63.2	1713	1705	47.15%	28.59%	24.27%	+0.37	-15.6	19
1954-04-25	@ GAIS	W 5-1	63.2	1705	1713	24.27%	28.59%	47.15%	-0.37	+15.6	16
1954-04-25	Goteborg	D 0-0	65.5	1713	1670	51.28%	28.08%	20.64%	+0.59	-0.8	18
1954-04-25	@ Helsingborg	D 0-0	65.5	1670	1713	20.64%	28.08%	51.28%	-0.59	+0.8	16
1954-04-25	Norrkoping	D 2-2	75.2	1663	1753	34.20%	28.81%	37.00%	-0.22	+0.0	14
1954-04-25	@ Jonkoping	D 2-2	75.2	1753	1663	37.00%	28.81%	34.20%	+0.22	-0.0	19
1954-04-25	Elfsborg	W 3-0	48.6	1714	1612	57.53%	26.78%	15.69%	+0.95	+6.0	14
1954-04-25	@ Malmo	L 0-3	48.6	1612	1714	15.69%	26.78%	57.53%	-0.95	-6.0	11
1954-05-01	Malmo	D 0-0	66.0	1753	1720	50.13%	28.25%	21.63%	+0.53	-0.8	20
1954-05-01	@ Norrkoping	D 0-0	66.0	1720	1753	21.63%	28.25%	50.13%	-0.53	+0.8	15
1954-05-02	Jonkoping	W 3-0	50.5	1721	1663	52.90%	27.81%	19.29%	+0.68	+7.2	18
1954-05-02	@ AIK Stockholm	L 0-3	50.5	1663	1721	19.29%	27.81%	52.90%	-0.68	-7.2	14
1954-05-02	Degerfors	W 3-1	60.7	1671	1694	43.32%	28.84%	27.84%	+0.19	+5.7	18
1954-05-02	@ Goteborg	L 1-3	60.7	1694	1671	27.84%	28.84%	43.32%	-0.19	-5.7	19
1954-05-02	Djurgarden	W 4-1	58.2	1712	1716	45.79%	28.70%	25.51%	+0.31	+7.6	20
1954-05-02	@ Helsingborg	L 1-4	58.2	1716	1712	25.51%	28.70%	45.79%	-0.31	-7.6	16
1954-05-02	Elfsborg	W 4-1	55.1	1630	1606	49.11%	28.38%	22.51%	+0.47	+6.9	18
1954-05-02	@ Kalmar	L 1-4	55.1	1606	1630	22.51%	28.38%	49.11%	-0.47	-6.9	11
1954-05-02	GAIS	W 3-1	64.1	1554	1698	27.28%	28.17%	44.55%	-0.55	+8.1	16
1954-05-02	@ Sandvikens IF	L 1-3	64.1	1698	1554	44.55%	28.17%	27.28%	+0.55	-8.1	19
1954-05-09	Norrkoping	D 2-2	75.3	1688	1752	37.74%	28.92%	33.34%	-0.07	-0.1	20
1954-05-09	@ Degerfors	D 2-2	75.3	1752	1688	33.34%	28.92%	37.74%	+0.07	+0.1	21
1954-05-09	Goteborg	W 5-0	51.3	1708	1677	49.93%	28.27%	21.79%	+0.52	+12.8	18
1954-05-09	@ Djurgarden	L 0-5	51.3	1677	1708	21.79%	28.27%	49.93%	-0.52	-12.8	18
1954-05-09	AIK Stockholm	D 1-1	68.9	1599	1728	29.00%	28.39%	42.61%	-0.47	+0.3	12
1954-05-09	@ Elfsborg	D 1-1	68.9	1728	1599	42.61%	28.39%	29.00%	+0.47	-0.3	19
1954-05-09	Kalmar	W 3-1	57.6	1689	1637	52.36%	27.91%	19.73%	+0.65	+4.4	21
1954-05-09	@ GAIS	L 1-3	57.6	1637	1689	19.73%	27.91%	52.36%	-0.65	-4.4	18
1954-05-09	Helsingborg	L 0-2	58.2	1656	1720	37.81%	28.92%	33.27%	-0.06	-8.3	14
1954-05-09	@ Jonkoping	W 2-0	58.2	1720	1656	33.27%	28.92%	37.81%	+0.06	+8.3	22
1954-05-09	Sandvikens IF	W 4-1	51.8	1721	1562	62.76%	25.10%	12.14%	+1.30	+3.9	17
1954-05-09	@ Malmo	L 1-4	51.8	1562	1721	12.14%	25.10%	62.76%	-1.30	-3.9	16
1954-05-14	Djurgarden	D 0-0	65.8	1728	1721	47.08%	28.59%	24.33%	+0.37	-0.6	20
1954-05-14	@ AIK Stockholm	D 0-0	65.8	1721	1728	24.33%	28.59%	47.08%	-0.37	+0.6	19
1954-05-14	Goteborg	D 1-1	69.3	1694	1664	49.78%	28.29%	21.92%	+0.51	-0.7	22
1954-05-14	@ GAIS	D 1-1	69.3	1664	1694	21.92%	28.29%	49.78%	-0.51	+0.7	19
1954-05-14	Malmo	D 3-3	79.8	1728	1725	46.62%	28.63%	24.74%	+0.35	-0.3	23
1954-05-14	@ Helsingborg	D 3-3	79.8	1725	1728	24.74%	28.63%	46.62%	-0.35	+0.3	18
1954-05-16	Jonkoping	W 2-0	52.5	1688	1648	50.93%	28.13%	20.93%	+0.57	+5.3	22
1954-05-16	@ Degerfors	L 0-2	52.5	1648	1688	20.93%	28.13%	50.93%	-0.57	-5.3	14
1954-05-16	Norrkoping	W 1-0	62.9	1599	1752	26.21%	28.02%	45.77%	-0.61	+5.1	14
1954-05-16	@ Elfsborg	L 0-1	62.9	1752	1599	45.77%	28.02%	26.21%	+0.61	-5.1	21
1954-05-16	Sandvikens IF	W 2-1	57.0	1632	1558	54.70%	27.46%	17.84%	+0.78	+2.3	20
1954-05-16	@ Kalmar	L 1-2	57.0	1558	1632	17.84%	27.46%	54.70%	-0.78	-2.3	16
1954-05-21	Elfsborg	D 1-1	68.4	1665	1604	53.20%	27.76%	19.04%	+0.69	-0.8	20
1954-05-21	@ Goteborg	D 1-1	68.4	1604	1665	19.04%	27.76%	53.20%	-0.69	+0.8	15
1954-05-21	Kalmar	W 3-0	48.8	1747	1635	58.51%	26.51%	14.98%	+1.01	+5.7	23
1954-05-21	@ Norrkoping	L 0-3	48.8	1635	1747	14.98%	26.51%	58.51%	-1.01	-5.7	20
1954-05-23	Degerfors	D 1-1	69.7	1721	1693	49.59%	28.32%	22.09%	+0.50	-0.6	20
1954-05-23	@ Djurgarden	D 1-1	69.7	1693	1721	22.09%	28.32%	49.59%	-0.50	+0.6	23
1954-05-23	GAIS	L 2-3	75.3	1728	1693	50.34%	28.22%	21.44%	+0.54	-4.9	23
1954-05-23	@ Helsingborg	W 3-2	75.3	1693	1728	21.44%	28.22%	50.34%	-0.54	+4.9	24
1954-05-23	Malmo	L 2-3	70.6	1643	1725	35.19%	28.85%	35.96%	-0.18	-3.7	14
1954-05-23	@ Jonkoping	W 3-2	70.6	1725	1643	35.96%	28.85%	35.19%	+0.18	+3.7	20
1954-05-23	AIK Stockholm	L 0-4	50.3	1556	1727	24.18%	27.65%	48.16%	-0.72	-11.1	16
1954-05-23	@ Sandvikens IF	W 4-0	50.3	1727	1556	48.16%	27.65%	24.18%	+0.72	+11.1	22
1954-05-27	Norrkoping	W 5-1	57.5	1738	1753	44.39%	28.79%	26.82%	+0.24	+10.2	24
1954-05-27	@ AIK Stockholm	L 1-5	57.5	1753	1738	26.82%	28.79%	44.39%	-0.24	-10.2	23
1954-05-27	Jonkoping	L 2-3	71.0	1605	1639	41.85%	28.90%	29.25%	+0.12	-4.2	15
1954-05-27	@ Elfsborg	W 3-2	71.0	1639	1605	29.25%	28.90%	41.85%	-0.12	+4.2	16
1954-05-27	Djurgarden	W 5-3	67.5	1698	1721	43.33%	28.84%	27.83%	+0.19	+4.9	26
1954-05-27	@ GAIS	L 3-5	67.5	1721	1698	27.83%	28.84%	43.33%	-0.19	-4.9	20
1954-05-27	Helsingborg	D 1-1	69.1	1629	1723	33.59%	28.77%	37.63%	-0.25	+0.1	21
1954-05-27	@ Kalmar	D 1-1	69.1	1723	1629	37.63%	28.77%	33.59%	+0.25	-0.1	24
1954-05-27	Degerfors	W 6-0	52.1	1729	1694	50.37%	28.22%	21.42%	+0.54	+15.0	22
1954-05-27	@ Malmo	L 0-6	52.1	1694	1729	21.42%	28.22%	50.37%	-0.54	-15.0	23
1954-05-27	Goteborg	W 1-0	59.6	1545	1664	30.26%	28.52%	41.21%	-0.40	+4.7	18
1954-05-27	@ Sandvikens IF	L 0-1	59.6	1664	1545	41.21%	28.52%	30.26%	+0.40	-4.7	20
1954-05-30	AIK Stockholm	W 3-1	63.0	1679	1749	36.95%	28.90%	34.15%	-0.10	+6.7	25
1954-05-30	@ Degerfors	L 1-3	63.0	1749	1679	34.15%	28.90%	36.95%	+0.10	-6.7	24
1954-05-30	Malmo	W 4-1	59.3	1716	1744	42.63%	28.87%	28.49%	+0.15	+8.3	22
1954-05-30	@ Djurgarden	L 1-4	59.3	1744	1716	28.49%	28.87%	42.63%	-0.15	-8.3	22
1954-05-30	Kalmar	W 1-0	55.1	1659	1629	49.80%	28.29%	21.91%	+0.51	+2.9	22
1954-05-30	@ Goteborg	L 0-1	55.1	1629	1659	21.91%	28.29%	49.80%	-0.51	-2.9	21
1954-05-30	Elfsborg	W 4-0	47.5	1723	1601	59.42%	26.24%	14.34%	+1.07	+7.2	26
1954-05-30	@ Helsingborg	L 0-4	47.5	1601	1723	14.34%	26.24%	59.42%	-1.07	-7.2	15
1954-05-30	GAIS	D 0-0	65.0	1643	1703	38.35%	28.93%	32.72%	-0.04	-0.1	17
1954-05-30	@ Jonkoping	D 0-0	65.0	1703	1643	32.72%	28.93%	38.35%	+0.04	+0.1	27
1954-05-30	Sandvikens IF	D 1-1	69.9	1743	1549	65.69%	23.91%	10.41%	+1.51	-1.4	24
1954-05-30	@ Norrkoping	D 1-1	69.9	1549	1743	10.41%	23.91%	65.69%	-1.51	+1.4	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1953-08-12	13.18%	Sandvikens IF	1546	3	@ AIK Stockholm	1687	1
2	1953-08-09	14.20%	Sandvikens IF	1540	1	@ Goteborg	1664	0
3	1954-04-11	14.74%	Sandvikens IF	1553	2	@ Jonkoping	1669	1
4	1953-09-27	16.85%	Elfsborg	1618	2	@ AIK Stockholm	1705	0
5	1953-10-25	17.21%	Sandvikens IF	1550	2	@ Elfsborg	1633	1
6	1953-08-12	18.48%	Jonkoping	1694	2	@ Malmo	1761	1
7	1953-09-27	19.09%	Degerfors	1693	2	@ Norrkoping	1753	1
8	1953-09-06	19.19%	AIK Stockholm	1680	3	@ Malmo	1739	0
9	1953-09-06	19.81%	Kalmar	1643	3	@ Jonkoping	1694	2
10	1953-10-25	20.46%	Goteborg	1671	2	@ Malmo	1716	0
11	1953-09-20	20.67%	AIK Stockholm	1695	3	@ Helsingborg	1738	1
12	1953-10-04	21.20%	Goteborg	1662	1	@ Degerfors	1699	0
13	1954-05-23	21.44%	GAIS	1693	3	@ Helsingborg	1728	2
14	1953-08-02	22.51%	Jonkoping	1667	6	@ GAIS	1691	1
15	1953-09-06	23.15%	GAIS	1684	1	@ Degerfors	1702	0
16	1953-10-11	23.49%	Djurgarden	1678	3	@ Jonkoping	1693	0
17	1953-08-21	23.68%	Helsingborg	1742	2	@ Malmo	1755	1
18	1954-04-25	24.27%	AIK Stockholm	1705	5	@ GAIS	1713	1
19	1953-08-21	24.30%	AIK Stockholm	1676	3	@ Djurgarden	1683	2
20	1953-08-02	24.60%	Degerfors	1693	2	@ AIK Stockholm	1698	1
21	1954-04-11	25.49%	AIK Stockholm	1685	4	@ Goteborg	1682	1
22	1954-04-11	25.66%	Norrkoping	1740	3	@ Helsingborg	1735	0
23	1954-05-16	26.21%	@ Elfsborg	1599	1	Norrkoping	1752	0
24	1953-08-21	26.77%	GAIS	1668	2	@ Goteborg	1654	1
25	1953-10-31	26.89%	Malmo	1705	1	@ AIK Stockholm	1690	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1953-08-02	19.76	Jonkoping	6	1667	22.51%	@ GAIS	1	1691	49.11%	28.38%
2	1953-09-06	15.83	AIK Stockholm	3	1680	19.19%	@ Malmo	0	1739	53.02%	27.79%
3	1954-04-25	15.58	AIK Stockholm	5	1705	24.27%	@ GAIS	1	1713	47.15%	28.59%
4	1954-05-27	14.98	@ Malmo	6	1729	50.37%	Degerfors	0	1694	21.42%	28.22%
5	1953-10-11	14.54	Djurgarden	3	1678	23.49%	@ Jonkoping	0	1693	48.01%	28.50%
6	1953-09-06	14.17	@ Djurgarden	6	1675	52.01%	Elfsborg	0	1626	20.02%	27.97%
7	1954-04-11	13.93	Norrkoping	3	1740	25.66%	@ Helsingborg	0	1735	45.63%	28.71%
8	1953-10-25	13.62	@ Djurgarden	5	1692	47.94%	Jonkoping	0	1678	23.56%	28.51%
9	1953-10-11	12.90	@ AIK Stockholm	5	1684	49.69%	Kalmar	0	1655	22.01%	28.31%
10	1954-05-09	12.80	@ Djurgarden	5	1708	49.93%	Goteborg	0	1677	21.79%	28.27%
11	1954-04-19	12.64	GAIS	5	1700	35.05%	@ Elfsborg	1	1624	36.07%	28.88%
12	1954-04-11	11.79	AIK Stockholm	4	1685	25.49%	@ Goteborg	1	1682	45.81%	28.70%
13	1953-08-02	11.74	Helsingborg	3	1716	34.47%	@ Elfsborg	0	1644	36.63%	28.90%
14	1953-09-27	11.43	Elfsborg	2	1618	16.85%	@ AIK Stockholm	0	1705	55.98%	27.17%
15	1953-08-30	11.43	@ GAIS	3	1672	35.84%	Malmo	0	1750	35.29%	28.87%
16	1954-05-23	11.13	AIK Stockholm	4	1727	48.16%	@ Sandvikens IF	0	1556	24.18%	27.65%
17	1953-08-12	10.69	Sandvikens IF	3	1546	13.18%	@ AIK Stockholm	1	1687	61.14%	25.68%
18	1953-10-25	10.63	Goteborg	2	1671	20.46%	@ Malmo	0	1716	51.49%	28.05%
19	1953-08-09	10.46	@ Helsingborg	5	1728	55.51%	Kalmar	0	1646	17.21%	27.28%
20	1954-05-27	10.19	@ AIK Stockholm	5	1738	44.39%	Norrkoping	1	1753	26.82%	28.79%
21	1953-10-04	9.21	@ Jonkoping	3	1684	45.00%	AIK Stockholm	0	1693	26.25%	28.75%
22	1953-09-20	9.17	AIK Stockholm	3	1695	20.67%	@ Helsingborg	1	1738	51.24%	28.09%
23	1953-09-13	8.63	@ Elfsborg	2	1612	31.28%	Malmo	0	1723	40.10%	28.62%
24	1954-05-09	8.27	Helsingborg	2	1720	33.27%	@ Jonkoping	0	1656	37.81%	28.92%
25	1954-05-30	8.26	@ Djurgarden	4	1716	42.63%	Malmo	1	1744	28.49%	28.87%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1954-05-14	79.8	@ Helsingborg	3	1728	46.62%	Malmo	3	1725	24.74%	28.63%
2	1953-08-12	79.3	@ Kalmar	3	1635	31.94%	Norrkoping	3	1741	39.39%	28.67%
3	1953-10-11	75.5	@ Norrkoping	2	1741	51.93%	GAIS	2	1692	20.09%	27.98%
4	1953-11-01	75.5	@ Norrkoping	2	1740	53.01%	Goteborg	2	1682	19.20%	27.79%
5	1953-08-09	75.3	@ Degerfors	2	1698	37.99%	Malmo	2	1761	33.09%	28.92%
6	1954-05-09	75.3	@ Degerfors	2	1688	37.74%	Norrkoping	2	1752	33.34%	28.92%
7	1954-05-23	75.3	GAIS	3	1693	21.44%	@ Helsingborg	2	1728	50.34%	28.22%
8	1953-10-25	75.2	@ GAIS	2	1693	40.01%	Norrkoping	2	1740	31.07%	28.93%
9	1954-04-25	75.2	@ Jonkoping	2	1663	34.20%	Norrkoping	2	1753	37.00%	28.81%
10	1953-09-06	75.1	Kalmar	3	1643	19.81%	@ Jonkoping	2	1694	52.26%	27.92%
11	1953-10-04	75.1	@ Djurgarden	2	1678	39.22%	Helsingborg	2	1731	31.85%	28.93%
12	1953-08-09	74.8	@ Djurgarden	2	1683	47.67%	GAIS	2	1671	23.79%	28.54%
13	1954-04-19	74.6	@ Goteborg	2	1671	47.13%	Jonkoping	2	1663	24.28%	28.59%
14	1953-10-31	74.5	@ Elfsborg	2	1627	35.64%	Djurgarden	2	1706	35.50%	28.87%
15	1953-08-21	74.0	AIK Stockholm	3	1676	24.30%	@ Djurgarden	2	1683	47.11%	28.59%
16	1953-08-30	73.9	Degerfors	4	1698	33.96%	@ Elfsborg	3	1630	37.13%	28.91%
17	1953-09-27	73.9	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1553	25.40%	Malmo	2	1713	46.72%	27.88%
18	1953-09-13	73.4	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1556	28.48%	Djurgarden	2	1689	43.19%	28.33%
19	1953-10-31	72.7	Jonkoping	3	1665	27.05%	@ Kalmar	2	1648	44.15%	28.80%
20	1953-10-11	71.9	@ Sandvikens IF	2	1550	35.20%	Elfsborg	2	1633	35.95%	28.85%
21	1953-08-30	71.8	@ Sandvikens IF	3	1553	27.02%	Jonkoping	2	1699	44.85%	28.14%
22	1953-08-12	71.5	Helsingborg	3	1738	33.68%	@ GAIS	2	1672	37.40%	28.91%
23	1953-08-12	71.0	Jonkoping	2	1694	18.48%	@ Malmo	1	1761	53.89%	27.62%
24	1954-05-27	71.0	Jonkoping	3	1639	29.25%	@ Elfsborg	2	1605	41.85%	28.90%
25	1953-09-27	70.8	Degerfors	2	1693	19.09%	@ Norrkoping	1	1753	53.14%	27.77%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1954-05-30	47.5	@ Helsingborg	4	1723	59.42%	Elfsborg	0	1601	14.34%	26.24%
2	1954-04-25	48.6	@ Malmo	3	1714	57.53%	Elfsborg	0	1612	15.69%	26.78%
3	1954-05-21	48.8	@ Norrkoping	3	1747	58.51%	Kalmar	0	1635	14.98%	26.51%
4	1953-08-09	49.5	@ Helsingborg	5	1728	55.51%	Kalmar	0	1646	17.21%	27.28%
5	1953-08-09	50.0	@ Jonkoping	3	1687	52.56%	Elfsborg	0	1632	19.56%	27.87%
6	1954-04-11	50.1	@ Djurgarden	3	1706	53.40%	Kalmar	0	1644	18.88%	27.72%
7	1954-05-23	50.3	AIK Stockholm	4	1727	48.16%	@ Sandvikens IF	0	1556	24.18%	27.65%
8	1953-09-06	50.5	@ Djurgarden	6	1675	52.01%	Elfsborg	0	1626	20.02%	27.97%
9	1954-05-02	50.5	@ AIK Stockholm	3	1721	52.90%	Jonkoping	0	1663	19.29%	27.81%
10	1953-09-06	50.8	@ Helsingborg	1	1741	64.86%	Sandvikens IF	0	1558	10.88%	24.26%
11	1953-10-11	51.0	@ AIK Stockholm	5	1684	49.69%	Kalmar	0	1655	22.01%	28.31%
12	1954-05-09	51.3	@ Djurgarden	5	1708	49.93%	Goteborg	0	1677	21.79%	28.27%
13	1953-10-25	51.8	@ Djurgarden	5	1692	47.94%	Jonkoping	0	1678	23.56%	28.51%
14	1954-05-09	51.8	@ Malmo	4	1721	62.76%	Sandvikens IF	1	1562	12.14%	25.10%
15	1954-05-27	52.1	@ Malmo	6	1729	50.37%	Degerfors	0	1694	21.42%	28.22%
16	1953-08-02	52.4	@ Malmo	2	1756	54.01%	Djurgarden	0	1688	18.39%	27.60%
17	1954-05-16	52.5	@ Degerfors	2	1688	50.93%	Jonkoping	0	1648	20.93%	28.13%
18	1953-10-04	52.8	@ Jonkoping	3	1684	45.00%	AIK Stockholm	0	1693	26.25%	28.75%
19	1953-10-04	53.9	@ GAIS	3	1689	60.68%	Sandvikens IF	1	1554	13.48%	25.84%
20	1953-09-20	54.0	@ Degerfors	3	1690	60.56%	Sandvikens IF	1	1556	13.57%	25.88%
21	1953-09-20	54.1	@ GAIS	1	1690	54.18%	Elfsborg	0	1620	18.25%	27.57%
22	1954-04-25	54.6	@ Degerfors	1	1691	53.00%	Kalmar	0	1633	19.20%	27.79%
23	1953-09-27	55.1	@ Goteborg	2	1655	42.38%	Djurgarden	0	1685	28.74%	28.88%
24	1954-05-02	55.1	@ Kalmar	4	1630	49.11%	Elfsborg	1	1606	22.51%	28.38%
25	1954-05-30	55.1	@ Goteborg	1	1659	49.80%	Kalmar	0	1629	21.91%	28.29%