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2025-26 Challenge League Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Aarau

17.25 points above expected

80 points · 62.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bellinzona

11.57 points below expected

23 points · 34.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81 75 41 +34 67.26 +13.74
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 80 77 47 +30 62.75 +17.25
3 Yverdon-Sport 36 20 7 9 67 75 48 +27 63.11 +3.89
4 Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50 59 51 +8 54.31 -4.31
5 Neuchatel Xamax 36 14 7 15 49 55 56 -1 46.43 +2.57
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 44 52 62 -10 43.29 +0.71
7 Etoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40 46 54 -8 43.33 -3.33
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 40 39 55 -16 41.09 -1.09
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28 33 60 -27 38.92 -10.92
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23 40 77 -37 34.57 -11.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aarau 80 62.75 +17.25
2 Vaduz 81 67.26 +13.74
3 Yverdon-Sport 67 63.11 +3.89
4 Neuchatel Xamax 49 46.43 +2.57
5 Rapperswil-Jona 44 43.29 +0.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bellinzona 23 34.57 -11.57
2 Stade Nyonnais 28 38.92 -10.92
3 Lausanne-Ouchy 50 54.31 -4.31
4 Etoile Carouge 40 43.33 -3.33
5 Wil 40 41.09 -1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vaduz 11 Oct 5 – Jan 23 1 in 929
2 Aarau 8 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 409
3 Rapperswil-Jona 3 Nov 21 – Dec 6 1 in 30
4 Wil 2 Nov 2 – Nov 7 1 in 15
5 Lausanne-Ouchy 3 Dec 10 – Dec 19 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lausanne-Ouchy 3 Mar 20 – Apr 7 1 in 151
2 Stade Nyonnais 8 Apr 6 – May 15 1 in 143
3 Aarau 2 Nov 8 – Nov 22 1 in 55
4 Wil 4 Aug 22 – Sep 12 1 in 24
5 Rapperswil-Jona 3 Aug 1 – Aug 22 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Etoile Carouge 6 Mar 13 – Apr 17 1 in 21
2 Vaduz 12 Sep 27 – Jan 23 1 in 21
3 Stade Nyonnais 4 Oct 24 – Nov 22 1 in 18
4 Aarau 8 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 13
5 Wil 4 Nov 29 – Dec 20 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lausanne-Ouchy 8 Mar 14 – May 2 1 in 95
2 Stade Nyonnais 12 Nov 28 – Mar 14 1 in 61
3 Bellinzona 12 Aug 2 – Oct 31 1 in 30
4 Wil 8 Aug 22 – Oct 24 1 in 15
5 Etoile Carouge 7 Nov 7 – Jan 23 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vaduz 1583 81 +8 10 9.9 +0.1
Aarau 1579 80 +30 11 9.1 +1.9
Yverdon-Sport 1546 67 +18 10 8.8 +1.2
Lausanne-Ouchy 1439 50 +38 10 6.9 +3.1
Neuchatel Xamax 1409 49 +33 9 6.2 +2.8
Rapperswil-Jona 1388 44 +9 9 7.3 +1.7
Wil 1351 40 +9 7 5.6 +1.4
Etoile Carouge 1388 40 -32 4 6.6 -2.6
Stade Nyonnais 1215 28 -41 0 3.5 -3.5
Bellinzona 1245 23 -72 1 5.0 -4.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAR BEL EC LAU NX RAP SN VAD WIL YVE
Aarau —
2-1-1
8.53
3-0-1
7.91
3-0-1
6.57
4-0-0
6.91
4-0-0
7.83
2-1-1
8.00
3-0-1
4.93
2-2-0
7.61
2-1-1
5.61
Bellinzona
1-1-2
2.57
 —
0-1-3
4.18
1-1-2
3.48
1-0-3
4.46
0-1-3
4.38
2-1-1
4.85
0-0-4
2.66
0-2-2
4.60
0-1-3
2.70
Etoile Carouge
1-0-3
3.12
3-1-0
6.81
 —
1-1-2
4.13
0-0-4
5.32
1-0-3
5.67
0-4-0
5.76
0-2-2
3.63
2-1-1
5.74
2-1-1
3.13
Lausanne-Ouchy
1-0-3
4.40
2-1-1
7.54
2-1-1
6.86
 —
3-0-1
6.26
1-0-3
6.95
2-2-0
7.37
1-2-1
3.92
0-2-2
7.21
2-0-2
4.41
Neuchatel Xamax
0-0-4
4.08
3-0-1
6.52
4-0-0
5.64
1-0-3
4.73
 —
4-0-0
5.94
1-3-0
6.19
0-1-3
3.44
1-1-2
6.50
0-2-2
3.94
Rapperswil-Jona
0-0-4
3.20
3-1-0
6.59
3-0-1
5.30
3-0-1
4.03
0-0-4
5.03
 —
2-0-2
6.24
0-1-3
3.04
3-0-1
5.40
0-0-4
3.94
Stade Nyonnais
1-1-2
3.06
1-1-2
6.11
0-4-0
5.20
0-2-2
3.65
0-3-1
4.77
2-0-2
4.74
 —
0-0-4
3.01
1-1-2
5.18
0-1-3
3.18
Vaduz
1-0-3
6.04
4-0-0
8.43
2-2-0
7.40
1-2-1
7.08
3-1-0
7.58
3-1-0
8.00
4-0-0
8.07
 —
4-0-0
8.14
3-0-1
5.83
Wil
0-2-2
3.43
2-2-0
6.37
1-1-2
5.22
2-2-0
3.79
2-1-1
4.48
1-0-3
5.56
2-1-1
5.78
0-0-4
2.91
 —
0-1-3
3.39
Yverdon-Sport
1-1-2
5.36
3-1-0
8.37
1-1-2
7.90
2-0-2
6.57
2-2-0
7.05
4-0-0
7.05
3-1-0
7.85
1-0-3
5.14
3-1-0
7.63
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +11.8
Allowed 0.74 -17.3
Differential 0.96 +8.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.94%5.56%3.33%1.39%0.83%24.72%
16.94%6.67%9.44%5.00%0.83%0.83%29.72%
25.56%9.44%6.11%1.94%1.11%0.83%25.00%
33.33%5.00%1.94%1.67%0.28%0.56%12.78%
41.39%0.83%1.11%0.28%—0.56%4.17%
5+0.83%0.83%0.83%0.56%0.56%—3.61%
Total24.72%29.72%25.00%12.78%4.17%3.61%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.86
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%2.78%————5.56%
113.89%2.78%2.78%2.78%—2.78%25.00%
28.33%19.44%8.33%2.78%2.78%—41.67%
38.33%8.33%————16.67%
4———————
5+—2.78%—2.78%5.56%—11.11%
Total33.33%36.11%11.11%8.33%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.31 +0.83
SD 1.29 1.39 1.58
CV 0.60 1.06 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%11.11%8.33%2.78%5.56%47.22%
1—5.56%8.33%2.78%—2.78%19.44%
22.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%5.56%2.78%22.22%
3———2.78%——2.78%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%25.00%16.67%8.33%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.14 -1.03
SD 1.41 1.62 2.32
CV 1.27 0.76 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%——30.56%
12.78%8.33%13.89%8.33%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%8.33%———19.44%
35.56%5.56%—2.78%——13.89%
4———————
5+———2.78%——2.78%
Total22.22%25.00%33.33%19.44%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 1.21 1.06 1.62
CV 0.95 0.70 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
1—11.11%8.33%———19.44%
28.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%——30.56%
35.56%2.78%—2.78%——11.11%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%25.00%19.44%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.42 +0.22
SD 1.44 1.05 2.02
CV 0.88 0.74 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%—2.78%25.00%
12.78%8.33%11.11%8.33%——30.56%
22.78%8.33%5.56%——2.78%19.44%
35.56%8.33%5.56%———19.44%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.56 -0.03
SD 1.30 1.23 1.96
CV 0.85 0.79 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%—2.78%2.78%—16.67%
18.33%2.78%19.44%5.56%2.78%—38.89%
211.11%13.89%—8.33%——33.33%
3—2.78%———2.78%5.56%
4——2.78%——2.78%5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.72 -0.28
SD 1.03 1.43 1.60
CV 0.71 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%19.44%2.78%2.78%2.78%—38.89%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%41.67%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
4—————2.78%2.78%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%13.89%11.11%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.67 -0.75
SD 1.00 1.41 1.40
CV 1.09 0.85 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
113.89%8.33%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%13.89%2.78%——2.78%25.00%
32.78%13.89%11.11%2.78%——30.56%
42.78%——2.78%——5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%38.89%22.22%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 1.14 +0.94
SD 1.27 1.10 1.58
CV 0.61 0.97 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%2.78%13.89%—2.78%—36.11%
111.11%2.78%5.56%16.67%——36.11%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—2.78%—19.44%
3———2.78%——2.78%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total33.33%11.11%30.56%19.44%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.53 -0.44
SD 1.18 1.30 1.58
CV 1.09 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—2.78%—2.78%—11.11%
111.11%—13.89%———25.00%
25.56%8.33%13.89%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%2.78%—2.78%2.78%19.44%
45.56%5.56%2.78%———13.89%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total33.33%19.44%38.89%—5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 1.33 +0.75
SD 1.32 1.26 1.81
CV 0.63 0.95 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vaduz 1583 81 67.26 +13.74 99.0% 47 53 63 68 72 78 88
Aarau 1579 80 62.75 +17.25 98.0% 45 53 58 63 66 74 83
Yverdon-Sport 1546 67 63.11 +3.89 73.0% 46 51 58 63 68 75 81
Lausanne-Ouchy 1439 50 54.31 -4.31 28.0% 30 42 49 55 60 67 70
Neuchatel Xamax 1409 49 46.43 +2.57 70.0% 32 35 41 45 51 59 66
Etoile Carouge 1388 40 43.33 -3.33 37.0% 22 33 38 43 47 57 63
Rapperswil-Jona 1388 44 43.29 +0.71 55.0% 26 30 38 42 49 56 60
Wil 1351 40 41.09 -1.09 50.0% 24 30 35 40 46 52 61
Bellinzona 1245 23 34.57 -11.57 7.0% 15 23 29 35 39 47 52
Stade Nyonnais 1215 28 38.92 -10.92 5.0% 21 27 34 39 44 50 61

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
No Edge
45.00%21.11%33.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
211 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Vaduz, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.93 * Some Luck: 5.93 to 8.9 * Lucky: 8.9 to 11.87 * Wild Swing: 11.87 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.08 * Way Off: 2.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.88 points
Some Luck
07.4219
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Vaduz
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Stade Nyonnais
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 128.00
2.47
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Some Drama
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.51
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vaduz53.00%23.00%11.00%11.00%1.00%1.00%————
Aarau21.00%29.00%36.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
Yverdon-Sport22.00%33.00%24.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%————
Lausanne-Ouchy4.00%10.00%15.00%34.00%19.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—
Neuchatel Xamax—1.00%6.00%13.00%21.00%18.00%18.00%15.00%5.00%3.00%
Rapperswil-Jona—1.00%2.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%13.00%17.00%14.00%8.00%
Etoile Carouge—2.00%3.00%3.00%15.00%17.00%22.00%18.00%10.00%10.00%
Wil—1.00%1.00%6.00%9.00%13.00%17.00%13.00%26.00%14.00%
Stade Nyonnais——2.00%—8.00%8.00%15.00%24.00%25.00%18.00%
Bellinzona———2.00%2.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Vaduz 53.00% 23.00% 24.00% —
Yverdon-Sport 22.00% 33.00% 45.00% —
Aarau 21.00% 29.00% 50.00% —
Lausanne-Ouchy 4.00% 10.00% 86.00% —
Neuchatel Xamax — 1.00% 96.00% 3.00%
Rapperswil-Jona — 1.00% 91.00% 8.00%
Etoile Carouge — 2.00% 88.00% 10.00%
Wil — 1.00% 85.00% 14.00%
Stade Nyonnais — — 82.00% 18.00%
Bellinzona — — 53.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-07-25 Stade Nyonnais D 1-155.8 1400 1380 42.27% 25.96% 31.77%+0.28 -0.7 1
2025-07-25 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-155.8 1380 1400 31.77% 25.96% 42.27%-0.28 +0.7 1
2025-07-25 Etoile Carouge W 1-045.5 1399 1416 37.14% 26.06% 36.81%+0.10 +11.9 3
2025-07-25 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 0-145.5 1416 1399 36.81% 26.06% 37.14%-0.10 -11.9 0
2025-07-26 Wil D 1-157.5 1431 1420 41.24% 25.99% 32.77%+0.24 -0.5 1
2025-07-26 @ Lausanne-Ouchy D 1-157.5 1420 1431 32.77% 25.99% 41.24%-0.24 +0.5 1
2025-07-27 Yverdon-Sport W 2-152.5 1417 1450 34.97% 26.04% 38.99%+0.03 +11.7 3
2025-07-27 @ Vaduz L 1-252.5 1450 1417 38.99% 26.04% 34.97%-0.03 -11.7 0
2025-08-01 Rapperswil-Jona W 1-045.5 1381 1411 35.32% 26.05% 38.63%+0.04 +12.3 4
2025-08-01 @ Stade Nyonnais L 0-145.5 1411 1381 38.63% 26.05% 35.32%-0.04 -12.3 3
2025-08-01 Aarau L 1-348.1 1420 1436 37.37% 26.06% 36.57%+0.11 -19.6 1
2025-08-01 @ Wil W 3-148.1 1436 1420 36.57% 26.06% 37.37%-0.11 +19.6 3
2025-08-02 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-542.7 1395 1399 38.97% 26.04% 34.98%+0.16 -37.0 0
2025-08-02 @ Bellinzona W 5-142.7 1399 1395 34.98% 26.04% 38.97%-0.16 +37.0 4
2025-08-03 Vaduz D 1-157.0 1404 1429 36.00% 26.05% 37.94%+0.06 +0.1 1
2025-08-03 @ Etoile Carouge D 1-157.0 1429 1404 37.94% 26.05% 36.00%-0.06 -0.1 4
2025-08-03 Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-255.9 1438 1431 40.61% 26.01% 33.38%+0.22 +9.9 3
2025-08-03 @ Yverdon-Sport L 2-355.9 1431 1438 33.38% 26.01% 40.61%-0.22 -9.9 1
2025-08-08 Yverdon-Sport L 0-338.5 1398 1448 32.61% 25.99% 41.40%-0.05 -29.7 3
2025-08-08 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 3-038.5 1448 1398 41.40% 25.99% 32.61%+0.05 +29.7 6
2025-08-08 Etoile Carouge W 1-044.7 1400 1404 39.04% 26.04% 34.92%+0.17 +11.4 4
2025-08-08 @ Wil L 0-144.7 1404 1400 34.92% 26.04% 39.04%-0.17 -11.4 1
2025-08-09 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-042.1 1455 1436 42.25% 25.96% 31.79%+0.28 +20.1 6
2025-08-09 @ Aarau L 0-242.1 1436 1455 31.79% 25.96% 42.25%-0.28 -20.1 4
2025-08-09 Bellinzona D 2-261.2 1421 1358 48.06% 25.59% 26.35%+0.48 -1.1 2
2025-08-09 @ Lausanne-Ouchy D 2-261.2 1358 1421 26.35% 25.59% 48.06%-0.48 +1.1 1
2025-08-10 Stade Nyonnais W 3-036.9 1429 1393 44.50% 25.85% 29.65%+0.35 +27.6 7
2025-08-10 @ Vaduz L 0-336.9 1393 1429 29.65% 25.85% 44.50%-0.35 -27.6 4
2025-08-13 Bellinzona W 1-040.8 1475 1359 54.38% 24.82% 20.80%+0.74 +7.5 9
2025-08-13 @ Aarau L 0-140.8 1359 1475 20.80% 24.82% 54.38%-0.74 -7.5 1
2025-08-22 Etoile Carouge W 2-148.6 1416 1393 42.77% 25.94% 31.29%+0.29 +9.9 7
2025-08-22 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-248.6 1393 1416 31.29% 25.94% 42.77%-0.29 -9.9 1
2025-08-22 Lausanne-Ouchy L 1-248.5 1369 1420 32.40% 25.98% 41.62%-0.06 -10.2 3
2025-08-22 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 2-148.5 1420 1369 41.62% 25.98% 32.40%+0.06 +10.2 5
2025-08-22 Aarau L 4-556.8 1366 1483 24.42% 25.38% 50.20%-0.37 -7.4 4
2025-08-22 @ Stade Nyonnais W 5-456.8 1483 1366 50.20% 25.38% 24.42%+0.37 +7.4 12
2025-08-22 Bellinzona W 6-035.1 1457 1351 53.13% 25.01% 21.86%+0.68 +41.1 10
2025-08-22 @ Vaduz L 0-635.1 1351 1457 21.86% 25.01% 53.13%-0.68 -41.1 1
2025-08-22 Wil W 4-037.1 1478 1412 48.39% 25.56% 26.05%+0.50 +32.5 9
2025-08-22 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-437.1 1412 1478 26.05% 25.56% 48.39%-0.50 -32.5 4
2025-08-25 Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-038.9 1490 1430 47.65% 25.63% 26.72%+0.47 +25.4 15
2025-08-25 @ Aarau L 0-338.9 1430 1490 26.72% 25.63% 47.65%-0.47 -25.4 5
2025-08-25 Vaduz D 1-159.8 1426 1498 29.71% 25.86% 44.44%-0.16 +0.9 8
2025-08-25 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-159.8 1498 1426 44.44% 25.86% 29.71%+0.16 -1.0 11
2025-08-26 Yverdon-Sport D 0-053.3 1310 1510 16.80% 23.86% 59.34%-0.77 +3.3 2
2025-08-26 @ Bellinzona D 0-053.3 1510 1310 59.34% 23.86% 16.80%+0.77 -3.3 10
2025-08-26 Stade Nyonnais D 1-155.1 1383 1358 43.00% 25.93% 31.07%+0.30 -0.8 2
2025-08-26 @ Etoile Carouge D 1-155.1 1358 1383 31.07% 25.93% 43.00%-0.30 +0.8 5
2025-08-26 Rapperswil-Jona L 1-347.0 1379 1358 42.47% 25.95% 31.58%+0.28 -21.7 4
2025-08-26 @ Wil W 3-147.0 1358 1379 31.58% 25.95% 42.47%-0.28 +21.7 6
2025-08-29 Aarau L 0-143.3 1380 1516 22.52% 25.11% 52.36%-0.46 -8.1 6
2025-08-29 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 1-043.3 1516 1380 52.36% 25.11% 22.52%+0.46 +8.1 18
2025-08-29 Bellinzona W 3-141.8 1359 1313 45.77% 25.77% 28.46%+0.40 +15.9 8
2025-08-29 @ Stade Nyonnais L 1-341.8 1313 1359 28.46% 25.77% 45.77%-0.40 -15.9 2
2025-08-30 Etoile Carouge W 2-039.2 1405 1382 42.70% 25.94% 31.36%+0.29 +19.9 8
2025-08-30 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-239.2 1382 1405 31.36% 25.94% 42.70%-0.29 -19.9 2
2025-08-31 Wil W 2-145.6 1497 1358 56.84% 24.39% 18.77%+0.84 +6.5 14
2025-08-31 @ Vaduz L 1-245.6 1358 1497 18.77% 24.39% 56.84%-0.84 -6.5 4
2025-08-31 Neuchatel Xamax W 3-146.5 1507 1427 50.16% 25.38% 24.46%+0.56 +14.1 13
2025-08-31 @ Yverdon-Sport L 1-346.5 1427 1507 24.46% 25.38% 50.16%-0.56 -14.1 8
2025-09-12 Yverdon-Sport W 2-157.4 1362 1521 20.27% 24.71% 55.01%-0.57 +15.6 5
2025-09-12 @ Etoile Carouge L 1-257.4 1521 1362 55.01% 24.71% 20.27%+0.57 -15.6 13
2025-09-12 Wil W 3-142.5 1413 1351 47.82% 25.61% 26.57%+0.48 +15.1 11
2025-09-12 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-342.5 1351 1413 26.57% 25.61% 47.82%-0.48 -15.1 4
2025-09-12 Lausanne-Ouchy L 1-248.8 1375 1425 32.61% 25.99% 41.41%-0.05 -10.2 8
2025-09-12 @ Stade Nyonnais W 2-148.8 1425 1375 41.41% 25.99% 32.61%+0.05 +10.2 11
2025-09-13 Vaduz W 1-051.0 1524 1503 42.40% 25.95% 31.64%+0.28 +10.6 21
2025-09-13 @ Aarau L 0-151.0 1503 1524 31.64% 25.95% 42.40%-0.28 -10.6 14
2025-09-13 Rapperswil-Jona D 1-154.2 1297 1372 29.37% 25.84% 44.79%-0.17 +1.0 3
2025-09-13 @ Bellinzona D 1-154.2 1372 1297 44.79% 25.84% 29.37%+0.17 -1.0 7
2025-09-26 Aarau L 1-344.4 1378 1534 20.49% 24.76% 54.75%-0.56 -12.1 5
2025-09-26 @ Etoile Carouge W 3-144.4 1534 1378 54.75% 24.76% 20.49%+0.56 +12.1 24
2025-09-26 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-344.9 1371 1428 31.69% 25.95% 42.35%-0.08 -17.3 7
2025-09-26 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 3-144.9 1428 1371 42.35% 25.95% 31.69%+0.08 +17.3 14
2025-09-27 Vaduz D 1-159.9 1435 1493 31.51% 25.95% 42.54%-0.09 +0.7 12
2025-09-27 @ Lausanne-Ouchy D 1-159.9 1493 1435 42.54% 25.95% 31.51%+0.09 -0.7 15
2025-09-27 Bellinzona D 0-049.8 1336 1298 44.74% 25.84% 29.43%+0.36 -1.1 5
2025-09-27 @ Wil D 0-049.8 1298 1336 29.43% 25.84% 44.74%-0.36 +1.1 4
2025-09-28 Stade Nyonnais W 1-041.1 1506 1365 57.02% 24.35% 18.63%+0.85 +6.8 16
2025-09-28 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-141.1 1365 1506 18.63% 24.35% 57.02%-0.85 -6.8 8
2025-10-03 Yverdon-Sport L 1-260.8 1546 1512 44.25% 25.87% 29.88%+0.35 -12.9 24
2025-10-03 @ Aarau W 2-160.8 1512 1546 29.88% 25.87% 44.25%-0.35 +12.9 19
2025-10-03 Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-244.5 1445 1435 40.92% 26.00% 33.08%+0.23 -24.3 14
2025-10-03 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-044.5 1435 1445 33.08% 26.00% 40.92%-0.23 +24.3 15
2025-10-03 Wil W 2-146.6 1358 1335 42.74% 25.94% 31.32%+0.29 +9.9 11
2025-10-03 @ Stade Nyonnais L 1-246.6 1335 1358 31.32% 25.94% 42.74%-0.29 -9.9 5
2025-10-04 Etoile Carouge L 0-334.5 1300 1366 30.45% 25.90% 43.66%-0.13 -28.2 4
2025-10-04 @ Bellinzona W 3-034.5 1366 1300 43.66% 25.90% 30.45%+0.13 +28.2 8
2025-10-05 Rapperswil-Jona W 3-250.4 1492 1354 56.74% 24.40% 18.86%+0.84 +6.2 18
2025-10-05 @ Vaduz L 2-350.4 1354 1492 18.86% 24.40% 56.74%-0.84 -6.2 7
2025-10-17 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-241.2 1394 1421 35.75% 26.05% 38.20%+0.06 -21.9 8
2025-10-17 @ Etoile Carouge W 2-041.2 1421 1394 38.20% 26.05% 35.75%-0.06 +21.9 17
2025-10-17 Aarau L 1-254.0 1460 1533 29.50% 25.84% 44.66%-0.17 -9.5 15
2025-10-17 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 2-154.0 1533 1460 44.66% 25.84% 29.50%+0.17 +9.5 27
2025-10-17 Stade Nyonnais W 1-043.8 1348 1368 36.71% 26.06% 37.23%+0.09 +12.0 10
2025-10-17 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 0-143.8 1368 1348 37.23% 26.06% 36.71%-0.09 -12.0 11
2025-10-19 Vaduz L 0-235.9 1325 1498 19.01% 24.44% 56.56%-0.64 -13.1 5
2025-10-19 @ Wil W 2-035.9 1498 1325 56.56% 24.44% 19.01%+0.64 +13.1 21
2025-10-19 Bellinzona W 2-032.0 1525 1271 67.41% 21.46% 11.13%+1.39 +7.8 22
2025-10-19 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-232.0 1271 1525 11.13% 21.46% 67.41%-1.39 -7.8 4
2025-10-24 Wil W 2-034.1 1543 1312 65.51% 22.13% 12.36%+1.28 +8.6 30
2025-10-24 @ Aarau L 0-234.1 1312 1543 12.36% 22.13% 65.51%-1.28 -8.7 5
2025-10-24 Rapperswil-Jona W 2-146.2 1443 1360 50.50% 25.35% 24.16%+0.58 +8.1 20
2025-10-24 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-246.2 1360 1443 24.16% 25.35% 50.50%-0.58 -8.1 10
2025-10-24 Yverdon-Sport D 2-264.4 1356 1533 18.64% 24.35% 57.00%-0.66 +2.0 12
2025-10-24 @ Stade Nyonnais D 2-264.4 1533 1356 57.00% 24.35% 18.64%+0.66 -2.0 23
2025-10-25 Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-330.8 1264 1450 17.87% 24.16% 57.98%-0.70 -18.0 4
2025-10-25 @ Bellinzona W 3-030.8 1450 1264 57.98% 24.16% 17.87%+0.70 +18.0 18
2025-10-26 Etoile Carouge W 3-142.8 1511 1372 56.85% 24.38% 18.77%+0.84 +11.2 24
2025-10-26 @ Vaduz L 1-342.8 1372 1511 18.77% 24.38% 56.85%-0.84 -11.2 8
2025-10-31 Bellinzona W 2-033.4 1361 1246 54.23% 24.84% 20.93%+0.73 +14.3 11
2025-10-31 @ Etoile Carouge L 0-233.4 1246 1361 20.93% 24.84% 54.23%-0.73 -14.3 4
2025-10-31 Vaduz L 3-467.7 1531 1522 40.79% 26.01% 33.21%+0.22 -11.2 23
2025-10-31 @ Yverdon-Sport W 4-367.7 1522 1531 33.21% 26.01% 40.79%-0.22 +11.2 27
2025-11-01 Rapperswil-Jona W 2-145.3 1552 1352 62.80% 22.97% 14.23%+1.13 +5.0 33
2025-11-01 @ Aarau L 1-245.3 1352 1552 14.23% 22.97% 62.80%-1.13 -5.0 10
2025-11-01 Stade Nyonnais D 3-366.6 1468 1358 53.71% 24.92% 21.37%+0.71 -1.3 19
2025-11-01 @ Lausanne-Ouchy D 3-366.6 1358 1468 21.37% 24.92% 53.71%-0.71 +1.4 13
2025-11-02 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-153.9 1303 1451 21.34% 24.92% 53.74%-0.52 +15.2 8
2025-11-02 @ Wil L 1-253.9 1451 1303 53.74% 24.92% 21.34%+0.52 -15.2 20
2025-11-07 Yverdon-Sport D 2-266.3 1435 1520 28.18% 25.75% 46.06%-0.22 +0.9 21
2025-11-07 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 2-266.3 1520 1435 46.06% 25.75% 28.18%+0.22 -0.9 24
2025-11-07 Wil L 1-249.9 1347 1319 43.44% 25.91% 30.65%+0.32 -12.7 10
2025-11-07 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 2-149.9 1319 1347 30.65% 25.91% 43.44%-0.32 +12.7 11
2025-11-07 Etoile Carouge D 0-050.9 1359 1375 37.31% 26.06% 36.64%+0.11 -0.0 14
2025-11-07 @ Stade Nyonnais D 0-050.9 1375 1359 36.64% 26.06% 37.31%-0.11 +0.0 12
2025-11-08 Aarau W 5-150.2 1231 1557 9.51% 20.40% 70.09%-1.36 +60.8 7
2025-11-08 @ Bellinzona L 1-550.2 1557 1231 70.09% 20.40% 9.51%+1.36 -60.8 33
2025-11-09 Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-258.1 1534 1467 48.49% 25.55% 25.95%+0.50 +8.1 30
2025-11-09 @ Vaduz L 2-358.1 1467 1534 25.95% 25.55% 48.49%-0.50 -8.1 19
2025-11-21 Vaduz L 0-138.0 1292 1542 13.41% 22.62% 63.97%-1.00 -5.0 7
2025-11-21 @ Bellinzona W 1-038.0 1542 1292 63.97% 22.62% 13.41%+1.00 +5.0 33
2025-11-21 Rapperswil-Jona L 0-242.0 1375 1334 45.21% 25.81% 28.98%+0.38 -26.3 12
2025-11-21 @ Etoile Carouge W 2-042.0 1334 1375 28.98% 25.81% 45.21%-0.38 +26.3 13
2025-11-21 Yverdon-Sport L 2-445.6 1331 1519 17.79% 24.14% 58.08%-0.71 -9.5 11
2025-11-21 @ Wil W 4-245.6 1519 1331 58.08% 24.14% 17.79%+0.71 +9.5 27
2025-11-22 Stade Nyonnais L 0-152.0 1496 1359 56.59% 24.43% 18.98%+0.83 -16.9 33
2025-11-22 @ Aarau W 1-052.0 1359 1496 18.98% 24.43% 56.59%-0.83 +16.9 17
2025-11-28 Aarau L 1-252.4 1436 1479 33.57% 26.02% 40.41%-0.02 -10.5 21
2025-11-28 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-152.4 1479 1436 40.41% 26.02% 33.57%+0.02 +10.5 36
2025-11-28 Bellinzona W 2-144.1 1360 1287 49.27% 25.48% 25.25%+0.53 +8.4 16
2025-11-28 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 1-244.1 1287 1360 25.25% 25.48% 49.27%-0.53 -8.4 7
2025-11-28 Vaduz L 0-143.0 1376 1547 19.20% 24.48% 56.31%-0.63 -7.0 17
2025-11-28 @ Stade Nyonnais W 1-043.0 1547 1376 56.31% 24.48% 19.20%+0.63 +7.0 36
2025-11-29 Lausanne-Ouchy D 0-052.1 1322 1459 22.36% 25.09% 52.55%-0.47 +2.3 12
2025-11-29 @ Wil D 0-052.1 1459 1322 52.55% 25.09% 22.36%+0.47 -2.3 20
2025-11-30 Etoile Carouge W 2-036.1 1529 1349 60.92% 23.48% 15.61%+1.04 +10.9 30
2025-11-30 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-236.1 1349 1529 15.61% 23.48% 60.92%-1.04 -10.9 12
2025-12-05 Wil D 0-050.0 1338 1324 41.51% 25.99% 32.51%+0.25 -0.6 13
2025-12-05 @ Etoile Carouge D 0-050.0 1324 1338 32.51% 25.99% 41.51%-0.25 +0.6 13
2025-12-05 Neuchatel Xamax W 1-045.2 1554 1426 55.63% 24.61% 19.76%+0.79 +7.2 39
2025-12-05 @ Vaduz L 0-145.2 1426 1554 19.76% 24.61% 55.63%-0.79 -7.2 21
2025-12-06 Stade Nyonnais W 2-041.8 1279 1369 27.49% 25.70% 46.81%-0.24 +27.1 10
2025-12-06 @ Bellinzona L 0-241.8 1369 1279 46.81% 25.70% 27.49%+0.24 -27.1 17
2025-12-06 Rapperswil-Jona L 0-245.8 1457 1368 51.09% 25.28% 23.63%+0.60 -29.2 20
2025-12-06 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 2-045.8 1368 1457 23.63% 25.28% 51.09%-0.60 +29.2 19
2025-12-07 Aarau L 1-260.3 1539 1489 46.37% 25.73% 27.90%+0.42 -13.4 30
2025-12-07 @ Yverdon-Sport W 2-160.3 1489 1539 27.90% 25.73% 46.37%-0.42 +13.4 39
2025-12-10 Neuchatel Xamax W 3-038.7 1427 1419 40.79% 26.01% 33.20%+0.22 +30.1 23
2025-12-10 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-338.7 1419 1427 33.20% 26.01% 40.79%-0.22 -30.1 21
2025-12-12 Etoile Carouge W 2-144.4 1503 1337 59.53% 23.81% 16.65%+0.97 +5.8 42
2025-12-12 @ Aarau L 1-244.4 1337 1503 16.65% 23.81% 59.53%-0.97 -5.8 13
2025-12-12 Vaduz L 0-437.4 1398 1561 19.87% 24.63% 55.50%-0.59 -25.8 19
2025-12-12 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 4-037.4 1561 1398 55.50% 24.63% 19.87%+0.59 +25.8 42
2025-12-13 Yverdon-Sport W 4-045.9 1457 1526 30.15% 25.88% 43.97%-0.14 +48.8 26
2025-12-13 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-445.9 1526 1457 43.97% 25.88% 30.15%+0.14 -48.8 30
2025-12-14 Bellinzona W 1-039.4 1389 1306 50.45% 25.35% 24.20%+0.58 +8.5 24
2025-12-14 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-139.4 1306 1389 24.20% 25.35% 50.45%-0.58 -8.5 10
2025-12-14 Stade Nyonnais W 1-043.1 1325 1342 37.13% 26.06% 36.81%+0.10 +11.9 16
2025-12-14 @ Wil L 0-143.1 1342 1325 36.81% 26.06% 37.13%-0.10 -11.9 17
2025-12-19 Lausanne-Ouchy L 1-245.2 1331 1506 18.85% 24.40% 56.74%-0.65 -6.5 13
2025-12-19 @ Etoile Carouge W 2-145.2 1506 1331 56.74% 24.40% 18.85%+0.65 +6.5 29
2025-12-19 Neuchatel Xamax D 1-154.9 1330 1397 30.32% 25.89% 43.79%-0.13 +0.9 18
2025-12-19 @ Stade Nyonnais D 1-154.9 1397 1330 43.79% 25.89% 30.32%+0.13 -0.9 25
2025-12-19 Aarau W 3-261.1 1587 1509 49.91% 25.41% 24.68%+0.55 +7.8 45
2025-12-19 @ Vaduz L 2-361.1 1509 1587 24.68% 25.41% 49.91%-0.55 -7.8 42
2025-12-20 Wil L 0-237.9 1297 1337 34.02% 26.03% 39.95%+0.00 -21.1 10
2025-12-20 @ Bellinzona W 2-037.9 1337 1297 39.95% 26.03% 34.02%+0.00 +21.1 19
2025-12-21 Rapperswil-Jona W 1-041.6 1477 1372 53.12% 25.01% 21.87%+0.68 +7.8 33
2025-12-21 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-141.6 1372 1477 21.87% 25.01% 53.12%-0.68 -7.9 19
2026-01-23 Etoile Carouge D 2-259.3 1331 1325 40.40% 26.02% 33.58%+0.21 -0.3 19
2026-01-23 @ Stade Nyonnais D 2-259.3 1325 1331 33.58% 26.02% 40.40%-0.21 +0.3 14
2026-01-23 Wil W 3-142.4 1595 1358 66.01% 21.96% 12.03%+1.31 +7.3 48
2026-01-23 @ Vaduz L 1-342.4 1358 1595 12.03% 21.96% 66.01%-1.31 -7.3 19
2026-01-24 Bellinzona W 1-036.3 1501 1276 64.98% 22.30% 12.72%+1.25 +4.7 45
2026-01-24 @ Aarau L 0-136.3 1276 1501 12.72% 22.30% 64.98%-1.25 -4.7 10
2026-01-24 Lausanne-Ouchy W 1-052.0 1364 1513 21.21% 24.89% 53.90%-0.52 +16.2 22
2026-01-24 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 0-152.0 1513 1364 53.90% 24.89% 21.21%+0.52 -16.2 29
2026-01-25 Yverdon-Sport L 1-249.4 1396 1485 27.65% 25.71% 46.64%-0.24 -9.0 25
2026-01-25 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-149.4 1485 1396 46.64% 25.71% 27.65%+0.24 +9.0 36
2026-01-30 Neuchatel Xamax W 5-040.3 1271 1387 24.57% 25.40% 50.03%-0.37 +67.0 13
2026-01-30 @ Bellinzona L 0-540.3 1387 1271 50.03% 25.40% 24.57%+0.37 -67.0 25
2026-01-30 Vaduz W 5-260.0 1497 1602 25.74% 25.53% 48.73%-0.32 +29.7 32
2026-01-30 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 2-560.0 1602 1497 48.73% 25.53% 25.74%+0.32 -29.7 48
2026-01-30 Rapperswil-Jona W 2-150.0 1325 1380 31.91% 25.96% 42.13%-0.08 +12.4 17
2026-01-30 @ Etoile Carouge L 1-250.0 1380 1325 42.13% 25.96% 31.91%+0.08 -12.4 22
2026-01-30 Aarau L 1-256.8 1494 1506 37.95% 26.05% 35.99%+0.13 -11.5 36
2026-01-30 @ Yverdon-Sport W 2-156.8 1506 1494 35.99% 26.05% 37.95%-0.13 +11.5 48
2026-02-01 Stade Nyonnais D 0-050.2 1350 1330 42.34% 25.96% 31.70%+0.28 -0.8 20
2026-02-01 @ Wil D 0-050.2 1330 1350 31.70% 25.96% 42.34%-0.28 +0.8 20
2026-02-06 Bellinzona D 1-154.1 1331 1338 38.56% 26.05% 35.39%+0.15 -0.2 21
2026-02-06 @ Stade Nyonnais D 1-154.1 1338 1331 35.39% 26.05% 38.56%-0.15 +0.2 14
2026-02-06 Etoile Carouge D 3-370.0 1572 1338 65.81% 22.03% 12.16%+1.30 -2.4 49
2026-02-06 @ Vaduz D 3-370.0 1338 1572 12.16% 22.03% 65.81%-1.30 +2.4 18
2026-02-07 Wil D 2-263.9 1517 1350 59.71% 23.77% 16.52%+0.98 -2.2 49
2026-02-07 @ Aarau D 2-263.9 1350 1517 16.52% 23.77% 59.71%-0.98 +2.2 21
2026-02-07 Yverdon-Sport L 1-441.1 1368 1483 24.68% 25.41% 49.91%-0.36 -20.1 22
2026-02-07 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 4-141.1 1483 1368 49.91% 25.41% 24.68%+0.36 +20.1 39
2026-02-08 Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-046.0 1320 1526 16.36% 23.72% 59.91%-0.79 +48.8 28
2026-02-08 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-346.0 1526 1320 59.91% 23.72% 16.36%+0.79 -48.8 32
2026-02-13 Vaduz L 0-236.7 1339 1570 14.59% 23.11% 62.30%-0.91 -10.2 14
2026-02-13 @ Bellinzona W 2-036.7 1570 1339 62.30% 23.11% 14.59%+0.91 +10.2 52
2026-02-13 Rapperswil-Jona L 0-240.4 1352 1348 40.17% 26.02% 33.81%+0.20 -24.0 21
2026-02-13 @ Wil W 2-040.4 1348 1352 33.81% 26.02% 40.17%-0.20 +23.9 25
2026-02-13 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-344.5 1340 1369 35.45% 26.05% 38.50%+0.05 -18.9 18
2026-02-13 @ Etoile Carouge W 3-144.5 1369 1340 38.50% 26.05% 35.45%-0.05 +18.9 31
2026-02-13 Aarau W 4-257.5 1478 1515 34.30% 26.03% 39.67%+0.01 +18.4 35
2026-02-13 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 2-457.5 1515 1478 39.67% 26.03% 34.30%-0.01 -18.4 49
2026-02-13 Stade Nyonnais W 1-039.1 1503 1331 60.13% 23.67% 16.20%+1.00 +6.0 42
2026-02-13 @ Yverdon-Sport L 0-139.1 1331 1503 16.20% 23.67% 60.13%-1.00 -6.0 21
2026-02-20 Bellinzona W 2-145.9 1372 1328 45.47% 25.79% 28.74%+0.39 +9.3 28
2026-02-20 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 1-245.9 1328 1372 28.74% 25.79% 45.47%-0.39 -9.3 14
2026-02-20 Yverdon-Sport D 2-262.8 1321 1509 17.80% 24.14% 58.06%-0.71 +2.1 19
2026-02-20 @ Etoile Carouge D 2-262.8 1509 1321 58.06% 24.14% 17.80%+0.71 -2.1 43
2026-02-20 Aarau D 1-157.2 1325 1496 19.16% 24.48% 56.36%-0.63 +2.5 22
2026-02-20 @ Stade Nyonnais D 1-157.2 1496 1325 56.36% 24.48% 19.16%+0.63 -2.5 50
2026-02-22 Neuchatel Xamax W 1-042.9 1580 1388 62.07% 23.17% 14.76%+1.09 +5.5 55
2026-02-22 @ Vaduz L 0-142.9 1388 1580 14.76% 23.17% 62.07%-1.09 -5.5 31
2026-02-22 Lausanne-Ouchy W 1-051.1 1328 1496 19.46% 24.54% 56.00%-0.61 +16.8 24
2026-02-22 @ Wil L 0-151.1 1496 1328 56.00% 24.54% 19.46%+0.61 -16.8 35
2026-02-27 Yverdon-Sport L 0-432.4 1319 1507 17.81% 24.14% 58.05%-0.71 -23.4 14
2026-02-27 @ Bellinzona W 4-032.4 1507 1319 58.05% 24.14% 17.81%+0.71 +23.4 46
2026-02-27 Rapperswil-Jona W 5-349.6 1494 1381 53.98% 24.88% 21.14%+0.72 +10.5 53
2026-02-27 @ Aarau L 3-549.6 1381 1494 21.14% 24.88% 53.98%-0.72 -10.5 28
2026-02-28 Etoile Carouge L 0-151.2 1479 1323 58.56% 24.03% 17.40%+0.92 -17.4 35
2026-02-28 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 1-051.2 1323 1479 17.40% 24.03% 58.56%-0.92 +17.5 22
2026-03-01 Wil D 0-050.9 1382 1345 44.75% 25.84% 29.42%+0.36 -1.1 32
2026-03-01 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 0-050.9 1345 1382 29.42% 25.84% 44.75%-0.36 +1.1 25
2026-03-01 Stade Nyonnais W 1-039.2 1585 1328 67.72% 21.35% 10.94%+1.41 +4.0 58
2026-03-01 @ Vaduz L 0-139.2 1328 1585 10.94% 21.35% 67.72%-1.41 -4.0 22
2026-03-06 Vaduz D 0-057.8 1370 1590 15.41% 23.41% 61.18%-0.86 +3.6 29
2026-03-06 @ Rapperswil-Jona D 0-057.8 1590 1370 61.18% 23.41% 15.41%+0.86 -3.6 59
2026-03-06 Neuchatel Xamax D 0-050.5 1324 1381 31.53% 25.95% 42.52%-0.09 +0.8 23
2026-03-06 @ Stade Nyonnais D 0-050.5 1381 1324 42.52% 25.95% 31.53%+0.09 -0.8 33
2026-03-06 Aarau L 0-334.2 1341 1504 19.84% 24.62% 55.54%-0.59 -19.8 22
2026-03-06 @ Etoile Carouge W 3-034.2 1504 1341 55.54% 24.62% 19.84%+0.59 +19.8 56
2026-03-07 Bellinzona D 3-363.4 1346 1296 46.37% 25.73% 27.90%+0.42 -0.7 26
2026-03-07 @ Wil D 3-363.4 1296 1346 27.90% 25.73% 46.37%-0.42 +0.7 15
2026-03-08 Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-250.6 1530 1462 48.68% 25.54% 25.78%+0.51 -28.0 46
2026-03-08 @ Yverdon-Sport W 2-050.6 1462 1530 25.78% 25.54% 48.68%-0.51 +28.0 38
2026-03-13 Etoile Carouge L 0-335.8 1296 1321 36.09% 26.05% 37.86%+0.07 -32.1 15
2026-03-13 @ Bellinzona W 3-035.8 1321 1296 37.86% 26.05% 36.09%-0.07 +32.1 25
2026-03-13 Vaduz W 2-053.3 1524 1586 31.01% 25.92% 43.07%-0.11 +25.3 59
2026-03-13 @ Aarau L 0-253.3 1586 1524 43.07% 25.92% 31.01%+0.11 -25.3 59
2026-03-13 Wil D 0-054.0 1502 1345 58.67% 24.01% 17.32%+0.93 -3.2 47
2026-03-13 @ Yverdon-Sport D 0-054.0 1345 1502 17.32% 24.01% 58.67%-0.93 +3.2 27
2026-03-14 Stade Nyonnais D 1-157.2 1490 1324 59.51% 23.82% 16.67%+0.97 -3.0 39
2026-03-14 @ Lausanne-Ouchy D 1-157.2 1324 1490 16.67% 23.82% 59.51%-0.97 +3.0 24
2026-03-15 Rapperswil-Jona W 3-253.2 1381 1374 40.51% 26.01% 33.48%+0.22 +9.9 36
2026-03-15 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 2-353.2 1374 1381 33.48% 26.01% 40.51%-0.22 -9.9 29
2026-03-20 Lausanne-Ouchy W 2-155.7 1264 1487 15.19% 23.33% 61.47%-0.87 +17.2 18
2026-03-20 @ Bellinzona L 1-255.7 1487 1264 61.47% 23.33% 15.19%+0.87 -17.2 39
2026-03-20 Rapperswil-Jona W 2-149.1 1327 1364 34.37% 26.03% 39.60%+0.01 +11.8 27
2026-03-20 @ Stade Nyonnais L 1-249.1 1364 1327 39.60% 26.03% 34.37%-0.01 -11.8 29
2026-03-20 Yverdon-Sport W 2-155.4 1561 1499 47.87% 25.61% 26.52%+0.48 +8.7 62
2026-03-20 @ Vaduz L 1-255.4 1499 1561 26.52% 25.61% 47.87%-0.48 -8.7 47
2026-03-21 Neuchatel Xamax W 1-042.8 1549 1390 58.87% 23.96% 17.17%+0.94 +6.3 62
2026-03-21 @ Aarau L 0-142.8 1390 1549 17.17% 23.96% 58.87%-0.94 -6.3 36
2026-03-22 Etoile Carouge L 1-345.4 1348 1353 38.91% 26.04% 35.05%+0.16 -20.2 27
2026-03-22 @ Wil W 3-145.4 1353 1348 35.05% 26.04% 38.91%-0.16 +20.2 28
2026-04-03 Stade Nyonnais D 0-050.7 1373 1339 44.26% 25.87% 29.87%+0.35 -1.0 29
2026-04-03 @ Etoile Carouge D 0-050.7 1339 1373 29.87% 25.87% 44.26%-0.35 +1.0 28
2026-04-03 Vaduz L 1-344.9 1384 1569 17.99% 24.19% 57.82%-0.69 -10.8 36
2026-04-03 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 3-144.9 1569 1384 57.82% 24.19% 17.99%+0.69 +10.8 65
2026-04-03 Wil L 0-246.7 1469 1328 57.08% 24.34% 18.58%+0.85 -32.2 39
2026-04-03 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 2-046.7 1328 1469 18.58% 24.34% 57.08%-0.85 +32.2 30
2026-04-03 Bellinzona W 5-238.2 1490 1282 63.57% 22.74% 13.69%+1.17 +10.2 50
2026-04-03 @ Yverdon-Sport L 2-538.2 1282 1490 13.69% 22.74% 63.57%-1.17 -10.2 18
2026-04-04 Aarau L 4-555.8 1352 1556 16.55% 23.78% 59.67%-0.78 -5.3 29
2026-04-04 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 5-455.8 1556 1352 59.67% 23.78% 16.55%+0.78 +5.3 65
2026-04-06 Yverdon-Sport L 1-439.2 1340 1500 20.16% 24.69% 55.15%-0.58 -16.9 28
2026-04-06 @ Stade Nyonnais W 4-139.2 1500 1340 55.15% 24.69% 20.16%+0.58 +16.9 53
2026-04-07 Neuchatel Xamax W 5-245.3 1360 1373 37.71% 26.06% 36.24%+0.12 +23.5 33
2026-04-07 @ Wil L 2-545.3 1373 1360 36.24% 26.06% 37.71%-0.12 -23.5 36
2026-04-07 Etoile Carouge L 1-357.0 1561 1372 61.76% 23.26% 14.98%+1.08 -29.9 65
2026-04-07 @ Aarau W 3-157.0 1372 1561 14.98% 23.26% 61.76%-1.08 +29.9 32
2026-04-07 Rapperswil-Jona L 1-253.9 1437 1347 51.37% 25.24% 23.39%+0.61 -14.7 39
2026-04-07 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 2-153.9 1347 1437 23.39% 25.24% 51.37%-0.61 +14.7 32
2026-04-07 Bellinzona W 3-246.1 1580 1271 71.55% 19.77% 8.68%+1.65 +2.8 68
2026-04-07 @ Vaduz L 2-346.1 1271 1580 8.68% 19.77% 71.55%-1.65 -2.8 18
2026-04-10 Lausanne-Ouchy D 1-156.8 1402 1423 36.65% 26.06% 37.29%+0.09 +0.0 33
2026-04-10 @ Etoile Carouge D 1-156.8 1423 1402 37.29% 26.06% 36.65%-0.09 -0.0 40
2026-04-10 Stade Nyonnais W 4-139.7 1350 1323 43.25% 25.92% 30.84%+0.31 +24.0 39
2026-04-10 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-439.7 1323 1350 30.84% 25.92% 43.25%-0.31 -24.0 28
2026-04-10 Vaduz W 2-162.0 1517 1583 30.50% 25.90% 43.60%-0.13 +12.8 56
2026-04-10 @ Yverdon-Sport L 1-262.0 1583 1517 43.60% 25.90% 30.50%+0.13 -12.8 68
2026-04-11 Aarau D 0-053.3 1269 1531 12.65% 22.27% 65.08%-1.06 +4.2 19
2026-04-11 @ Bellinzona D 0-053.3 1531 1269 65.08% 22.27% 12.65%+1.06 -4.2 66
2026-04-11 Wil W 2-040.3 1362 1384 36.43% 26.06% 37.52%+0.08 +22.7 35
2026-04-11 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 0-240.3 1384 1362 37.52% 26.06% 36.43%-0.08 -22.7 33
2026-04-17 Wil W 2-038.0 1402 1361 45.20% 25.81% 28.99%+0.38 +18.7 36
2026-04-17 @ Etoile Carouge L 0-238.0 1361 1402 28.99% 25.81% 45.20%-0.38 -18.7 33
2026-04-18 Stade Nyonnais W 4-035.6 1273 1299 35.79% 26.05% 38.15%+0.06 +43.7 22
2026-04-18 @ Bellinzona L 0-435.6 1299 1273 38.15% 26.05% 35.79%-0.06 -43.7 28
2026-04-19 Rapperswil-Jona W 2-147.5 1570 1384 61.49% 23.33% 15.18%+1.06 +5.3 71
2026-04-19 @ Vaduz L 1-247.5 1384 1570 15.18% 23.33% 61.49%-1.06 -5.3 35
2026-04-22 Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-038.3 1527 1423 52.99% 25.03% 21.98%+0.68 +21.6 69
2026-04-22 @ Aarau L 0-338.3 1423 1527 21.98% 25.03% 52.99%-0.68 -21.6 40
2026-04-22 Neuchatel Xamax D 2-265.0 1530 1374 58.58% 24.03% 17.39%+0.92 -2.1 57
2026-04-22 @ Yverdon-Sport D 2-265.0 1374 1530 17.39% 24.03% 58.58%-0.92 +2.1 40
2026-04-24 Etoile Carouge W 2-151.1 1379 1421 33.67% 26.02% 40.31%-0.01 +12.0 38
2026-04-24 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 1-251.1 1421 1379 40.31% 26.02% 33.67%+0.01 -12.0 36
2026-04-24 Vaduz L 1-337.5 1256 1575 9.74% 20.57% 69.69%-1.33 -5.8 28
2026-04-24 @ Stade Nyonnais W 3-137.5 1575 1256 69.69% 20.57% 9.74%+1.33 +5.8 74
2026-04-25 Aarau D 2-264.7 1342 1549 16.35% 23.72% 59.93%-0.79 +2.3 34
2026-04-25 @ Wil D 2-264.7 1549 1342 59.93% 23.72% 16.35%+0.79 -2.3 70
2026-04-26 Bellinzona W 2-145.1 1376 1316 47.58% 25.63% 26.78%+0.47 +8.8 43
2026-04-26 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-245.1 1316 1376 26.78% 25.63% 47.58%-0.47 -8.8 22
2026-04-26 Yverdon-Sport L 0-338.1 1401 1528 23.41% 25.25% 51.35%-0.42 -22.8 40
2026-04-26 @ Lausanne-Ouchy W 3-038.1 1528 1401 51.35% 25.25% 23.41%+0.42 +22.8 60
2026-05-01 Aarau L 1-344.9 1385 1546 20.03% 24.67% 55.30%-0.58 -11.9 43
2026-05-01 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 3-144.9 1546 1385 55.30% 24.67% 20.03%+0.58 +11.9 73
2026-05-01 Wil L 0-139.4 1250 1345 26.94% 25.65% 47.41%-0.27 -9.3 28
2026-05-01 @ Stade Nyonnais W 1-039.4 1345 1250 47.41% 25.65% 26.94%+0.27 +9.4 37
2026-05-02 Lausanne-Ouchy D 2-267.3 1581 1378 63.08% 22.89% 14.04%+1.15 -2.6 75
2026-05-02 @ Vaduz D 2-267.3 1378 1581 14.04% 22.89% 63.08%-1.15 +2.6 41
2026-05-03 Rapperswil-Jona L 2-446.2 1308 1391 28.30% 25.76% 45.94%-0.21 -14.2 22
2026-05-03 @ Bellinzona W 4-246.2 1391 1308 45.94% 25.76% 28.30%+0.21 +14.2 41
2026-05-03 Etoile Carouge L 3-563.1 1551 1409 57.11% 24.33% 18.56%+0.86 -23.5 60
2026-05-03 @ Yverdon-Sport W 5-363.1 1409 1551 18.56% 24.33% 57.11%-0.86 +23.6 39
2026-05-08 Yverdon-Sport L 0-141.5 1354 1527 19.00% 24.44% 56.56%-0.64 -6.9 37
2026-05-08 @ Wil W 1-041.5 1527 1354 56.56% 24.44% 19.00%+0.64 +6.9 63
2026-05-08 Stade Nyonnais W 5-131.6 1558 1240 72.19% 19.48% 8.33%+1.69 +9.0 76
2026-05-08 @ Aarau L 1-531.6 1240 1558 8.33% 19.48% 72.19%-1.69 -9.0 28
2026-05-08 Vaduz L 1-251.9 1432 1579 21.45% 24.94% 53.61%-0.51 -7.3 39
2026-05-08 @ Etoile Carouge W 2-151.9 1579 1432 53.61% 24.94% 21.45%+0.51 +7.3 78
2026-05-08 Neuchatel Xamax L 2-356.8 1405 1373 44.03% 25.88% 30.10%+0.34 -12.2 41
2026-05-08 @ Rapperswil-Jona W 3-256.8 1373 1405 30.10% 25.88% 44.03%-0.34 +12.2 46
2026-05-08 Bellinzona W 5-032.5 1381 1293 51.01% 25.29% 23.70%+0.60 +37.1 44
2026-05-08 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 0-532.5 1293 1381 23.70% 25.29% 51.01%-0.60 -37.1 22
2026-05-11 Wil L 2-445.0 1256 1347 27.44% 25.69% 46.87%-0.25 -13.9 22
2026-05-11 @ Bellinzona W 4-245.0 1347 1256 46.87% 25.69% 27.44%+0.25 +13.8 40
2026-05-11 Etoile Carouge W 3-039.8 1385 1425 33.92% 26.02% 40.06%-0.01 +34.7 49
2026-05-11 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-339.8 1425 1385 40.06% 26.02% 33.92%+0.01 -34.7 39
2026-05-11 Lausanne-Ouchy L 1-337.9 1231 1418 17.89% 24.16% 57.95%-0.70 -10.7 28
2026-05-11 @ Stade Nyonnais W 3-137.9 1418 1231 57.95% 24.16% 17.89%+0.70 +10.7 47
2026-05-11 Aarau L 1-263.2 1586 1567 42.20% 25.96% 31.84%+0.27 -12.5 78
2026-05-11 @ Vaduz W 2-163.2 1567 1586 31.84% 25.96% 42.20%-0.27 +12.5 79
2026-05-11 Rapperswil-Jona W 3-144.2 1534 1393 57.02% 24.35% 18.63%+0.85 +11.1 66
2026-05-11 @ Yverdon-Sport L 1-344.2 1393 1534 18.63% 24.35% 57.02%-0.85 -11.1 41
2026-05-15 Yverdon-Sport D 2-272.3 1580 1545 44.31% 25.86% 29.83%+0.35 -0.7 80
2026-05-15 @ Aarau D 2-272.3 1545 1580 29.83% 25.86% 44.31%-0.35 +0.7 67
2026-05-15 Bellinzona D 2-259.6 1390 1243 57.74% 24.21% 18.05%+0.88 -2.0 40
2026-05-15 @ Etoile Carouge D 2-259.6 1243 1390 18.05% 24.21% 57.74%-0.88 +2.0 23
2026-05-15 Stade Nyonnais W 2-140.8 1382 1221 59.10% 23.91% 16.99%+0.95 +5.9 44
2026-05-15 @ Rapperswil-Jona L 1-240.8 1221 1382 16.99% 23.91% 59.10%-0.95 -5.9 28
2026-05-15 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-150.2 1429 1420 40.81% 26.01% 33.18%+0.23 +10.4 50
2026-05-15 @ Lausanne-Ouchy L 1-250.2 1420 1429 33.18% 26.01% 40.81%-0.23 -10.4 49
2026-05-15 Vaduz L 1-343.4 1361 1574 15.87% 23.57% 60.56%-0.82 -9.6 40
2026-05-15 @ Wil W 3-143.4 1574 1361 60.56% 23.57% 15.87%+0.82 +9.6 81

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-11-08 9.51% @ Bellinzona 1231 5 Aarau 1557 1
2 2026-04-07 14.98% Etoile Carouge 1372 3 @ Aarau 1561 1
3 2026-03-20 15.19% @ Bellinzona 1264 2 Lausanne-Ouchy 1487 1
4 2026-02-08 16.36% @ Neuchatel Xamax 1320 3 Lausanne-Ouchy 1526 0
5 2026-02-28 17.40% Etoile Carouge 1323 1 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1479 0
6 2026-05-03 18.56% Etoile Carouge 1409 5 @ Yverdon-Sport 1551 3
7 2026-04-03 18.58% Wil 1328 2 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1469 0
8 2025-11-22 18.98% Stade Nyonnais 1359 1 @ Aarau 1496 0
9 2026-02-22 19.46% @ Wil 1328 1 Lausanne-Ouchy 1496 0
10 2025-09-12 20.27% @ Etoile Carouge 1362 2 Yverdon-Sport 1521 1
11 2026-01-24 21.21% @ Rapperswil-Jona 1364 1 Lausanne-Ouchy 1513 0
12 2025-11-02 21.34% @ Wil 1303 2 Neuchatel Xamax 1451 1
13 2026-04-07 23.39% Rapperswil-Jona 1347 2 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1437 1
14 2025-12-06 23.63% Rapperswil-Jona 1368 2 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1457 0
15 2026-01-30 24.57% @ Bellinzona 1271 5 Neuchatel Xamax 1387 0
16 2026-01-30 25.74% @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1497 5 Vaduz 1602 2
17 2026-03-08 25.78% Lausanne-Ouchy 1462 2 @ Yverdon-Sport 1530 0
18 2025-12-06 27.49% @ Bellinzona 1279 2 Stade Nyonnais 1369 0
19 2025-12-07 27.90% Aarau 1489 2 @ Yverdon-Sport 1539 1
20 2025-11-21 28.98% Rapperswil-Jona 1334 2 @ Etoile Carouge 1375 0
21 2025-10-03 29.88% Yverdon-Sport 1512 2 @ Aarau 1546 1
22 2026-05-08 30.10% Neuchatel Xamax 1373 3 @ Rapperswil-Jona 1405 2
23 2025-12-13 30.15% @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1457 4 Yverdon-Sport 1526 0
24 2026-04-10 30.50% @ Yverdon-Sport 1517 2 Vaduz 1583 1
25 2025-11-07 30.65% Wil 1319 2 @ Rapperswil-Jona 1347 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-01-30 66.99 @ Bellinzona 5 1271 24.57% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1387 50.03% 25.40%
2 2025-11-08 60.75 @ Bellinzona 5 1231 9.51% Aarau 1 1557 70.09% 20.40%
3 2025-12-13 48.81 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 4 1457 30.15% Yverdon-Sport 0 1526 43.97% 25.88%
4 2026-02-08 48.78 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1320 16.36% Lausanne-Ouchy 0 1526 59.91% 23.72%
5 2026-04-18 43.70 @ Bellinzona 4 1273 35.79% Stade Nyonnais 0 1299 38.15% 26.05%
6 2025-08-22 41.11 @ Vaduz 6 1457 53.13% Bellinzona 0 1351 21.86% 25.01%
7 2026-05-08 37.08 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 5 1381 51.01% Bellinzona 0 1293 23.70% 25.29%
8 2025-08-02 37.00 Neuchatel Xamax 5 1399 34.98% @ Bellinzona 1 1395 38.97% 26.04%
9 2026-05-11 34.71 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1385 33.92% Etoile Carouge 0 1425 40.06% 26.02%
10 2025-08-22 32.53 @ Yverdon-Sport 4 1478 48.39% Wil 0 1412 26.05% 25.56%
11 2026-04-03 32.17 Wil 2 1328 18.58% @ Lausanne-Ouchy 0 1469 57.08% 24.34%
12 2026-03-13 32.09 Etoile Carouge 3 1321 37.86% @ Bellinzona 0 1296 36.09% 26.05%
13 2025-12-10 30.14 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 3 1427 40.79% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1419 33.20% 26.01%
14 2026-04-07 29.88 Etoile Carouge 3 1372 14.98% @ Aarau 1 1561 61.76% 23.26%
15 2025-08-08 29.72 Yverdon-Sport 3 1448 41.40% @ Rapperswil-Jona 0 1398 32.61% 25.99%
16 2026-01-30 29.71 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 5 1497 25.74% Vaduz 2 1602 48.73% 25.53%
17 2025-12-06 29.17 Rapperswil-Jona 2 1368 23.63% @ Lausanne-Ouchy 0 1457 51.09% 25.28%
18 2025-10-04 28.20 Etoile Carouge 3 1366 43.66% @ Bellinzona 0 1300 30.45% 25.90%
19 2026-03-08 27.99 Lausanne-Ouchy 2 1462 25.78% @ Yverdon-Sport 0 1530 48.68% 25.54%
20 2025-08-10 27.62 @ Vaduz 3 1429 44.50% Stade Nyonnais 0 1393 29.65% 25.85%
21 2025-12-06 27.08 @ Bellinzona 2 1279 27.49% Stade Nyonnais 0 1369 46.81% 25.70%
22 2025-11-21 26.31 Rapperswil-Jona 2 1334 28.98% @ Etoile Carouge 0 1375 45.21% 25.81%
23 2025-12-12 25.83 Vaduz 4 1561 55.50% @ Rapperswil-Jona 0 1398 19.87% 24.63%
24 2025-08-25 25.42 @ Aarau 3 1490 47.65% Lausanne-Ouchy 0 1430 26.72% 25.63%
25 2026-03-13 25.30 @ Aarau 2 1524 31.01% Vaduz 0 1586 43.07% 25.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-05-15 72.3 @ Aarau 2 1580 44.31% Yverdon-Sport 2 1545 29.83% 25.86%
2 2026-02-06 70.0 @ Vaduz 3 1572 65.81% Etoile Carouge 3 1338 12.16% 22.03%
3 2025-10-31 67.7 Vaduz 4 1522 33.21% @ Yverdon-Sport 3 1531 40.79% 26.01%
4 2026-05-02 67.3 @ Vaduz 2 1581 63.08% Lausanne-Ouchy 2 1378 14.04% 22.89%
5 2025-11-01 66.6 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 3 1468 53.71% Stade Nyonnais 3 1358 21.37% 24.92%
6 2025-11-07 66.3 @ Neuchatel Xamax 2 1435 28.18% Yverdon-Sport 2 1520 46.06% 25.75%
7 2026-04-22 65.0 @ Yverdon-Sport 2 1530 58.58% Neuchatel Xamax 2 1374 17.39% 24.03%
8 2026-04-25 64.7 @ Wil 2 1342 16.35% Aarau 2 1549 59.93% 23.72%
9 2025-10-24 64.4 @ Stade Nyonnais 2 1356 18.64% Yverdon-Sport 2 1533 57.00% 24.35%
10 2026-02-07 63.9 @ Aarau 2 1517 59.71% Wil 2 1350 16.52% 23.77%
11 2026-03-07 63.4 @ Wil 3 1346 46.37% Bellinzona 3 1296 27.90% 25.73%
12 2026-05-11 63.2 Aarau 2 1567 31.84% @ Vaduz 1 1586 42.20% 25.96%
13 2026-05-03 63.1 Etoile Carouge 5 1409 18.56% @ Yverdon-Sport 3 1551 57.11% 24.33%
14 2026-02-20 62.8 @ Etoile Carouge 2 1321 17.80% Yverdon-Sport 2 1509 58.06% 24.14%
15 2026-04-10 62.0 @ Yverdon-Sport 2 1517 30.50% Vaduz 1 1583 43.60% 25.90%
16 2025-08-09 61.2 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 2 1421 48.06% Bellinzona 2 1358 26.35% 25.59%
17 2025-12-19 61.1 @ Vaduz 3 1587 49.91% Aarau 2 1509 24.68% 25.41%
18 2025-10-03 60.8 Yverdon-Sport 2 1512 29.88% @ Aarau 1 1546 44.25% 25.87%
19 2025-12-07 60.3 Aarau 2 1489 27.90% @ Yverdon-Sport 1 1539 46.37% 25.73%
20 2026-01-30 60.0 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 5 1497 25.74% Vaduz 2 1602 48.73% 25.53%
21 2025-09-27 59.9 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 1 1435 31.51% Vaduz 1 1493 42.54% 25.95%
22 2025-08-25 59.8 @ Neuchatel Xamax 1 1426 29.71% Vaduz 1 1498 44.44% 25.86%
23 2026-05-15 59.6 @ Etoile Carouge 2 1390 57.74% Bellinzona 2 1243 18.05% 24.21%
24 2026-01-23 59.3 @ Stade Nyonnais 2 1331 40.40% Etoile Carouge 2 1325 33.58% 26.02%
25 2025-11-09 58.1 @ Vaduz 3 1534 48.49% Lausanne-Ouchy 2 1467 25.95% 25.55%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-10-25 30.8 Lausanne-Ouchy 3 1450 57.98% @ Bellinzona 0 1264 17.87% 24.16%
2 2026-05-08 31.6 @ Aarau 5 1558 72.19% Stade Nyonnais 1 1240 8.33% 19.48%
3 2025-10-19 32.0 @ Yverdon-Sport 2 1525 67.41% Bellinzona 0 1271 11.13% 21.46%
4 2026-02-27 32.4 Yverdon-Sport 4 1507 58.05% @ Bellinzona 0 1319 17.81% 24.14%
5 2026-05-08 32.5 @ Lausanne-Ouchy 5 1381 51.01% Bellinzona 0 1293 23.70% 25.29%
6 2025-10-31 33.4 @ Etoile Carouge 2 1361 54.23% Bellinzona 0 1246 20.93% 24.84%
7 2025-10-24 34.1 @ Aarau 2 1543 65.51% Wil 0 1312 12.36% 22.13%
8 2026-03-06 34.2 Aarau 3 1504 55.54% @ Etoile Carouge 0 1341 19.84% 24.62%
9 2025-10-04 34.5 Etoile Carouge 3 1366 43.66% @ Bellinzona 0 1300 30.45% 25.90%
10 2025-08-22 35.1 @ Vaduz 6 1457 53.13% Bellinzona 0 1351 21.86% 25.01%
11 2026-04-18 35.6 @ Bellinzona 4 1273 35.79% Stade Nyonnais 0 1299 38.15% 26.05%
12 2026-03-13 35.8 Etoile Carouge 3 1321 37.86% @ Bellinzona 0 1296 36.09% 26.05%
13 2025-10-19 35.9 Vaduz 2 1498 56.56% @ Wil 0 1325 19.01% 24.44%
14 2025-11-30 36.1 @ Yverdon-Sport 2 1529 60.92% Etoile Carouge 0 1349 15.61% 23.48%
15 2026-01-24 36.3 @ Aarau 1 1501 64.98% Bellinzona 0 1276 12.72% 22.30%
16 2026-02-13 36.7 Vaduz 2 1570 62.30% @ Bellinzona 0 1339 14.59% 23.11%
17 2025-08-10 36.9 @ Vaduz 3 1429 44.50% Stade Nyonnais 0 1393 29.65% 25.85%
18 2025-08-22 37.1 @ Yverdon-Sport 4 1478 48.39% Wil 0 1412 26.05% 25.56%
19 2025-12-12 37.4 Vaduz 4 1561 55.50% @ Rapperswil-Jona 0 1398 19.87% 24.63%
20 2026-04-24 37.5 Vaduz 3 1575 69.69% @ Stade Nyonnais 1 1256 9.74% 20.57%
21 2025-12-20 37.9 Wil 2 1337 39.95% @ Bellinzona 0 1297 34.02% 26.03%
22 2026-05-11 37.9 Lausanne-Ouchy 3 1418 57.95% @ Stade Nyonnais 1 1231 17.89% 24.16%
23 2025-11-21 38.0 Vaduz 1 1542 63.97% @ Bellinzona 0 1292 13.41% 22.62%
24 2026-04-17 38.0 @ Etoile Carouge 2 1402 45.20% Wil 0 1361 28.99% 25.81%
25 2026-04-26 38.1 Yverdon-Sport 3 1528 51.35% @ Lausanne-Ouchy 0 1401 23.41% 25.25%