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2004-05 Super League Season

164 games

Final

Champion

Basel

70 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Thun

9.59 points above expected

60 points · 50.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Gallen

8.83 points below expected

36 points · 44.83 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Basel 34 21 7 6 70 81 45 +36 65.45 +4.55
2 Thun 34 18 6 10 60 69 42 +27 50.41 +9.59
3 Grasshopper 34 12 14 8 50 51 50 +1 42.23 +7.77
4 Young Boys 34 12 13 9 49 60 52 +8 55.58 -6.58
5 Zurich 34 13 9 12 48 55 57 -2 45.09 +2.91
6 Neuchatel Xamax 34 10 8 16 38 36 48 -12 41.43 -3.43
7 St. Gallen 34 8 12 14 36 51 60 -9 44.83 -8.83
8 Aarau 34 7 11 16 32 42 64 -22 40.75 -8.75
9 Schaffhausen 34 7 11 16 32 36 59 -23 32.76 -0.76
10 Servette* 18 6 5 7 20 24 28 -4 18.46 +1.54
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Schaffhausen 2 1 1 0 4 2 1 +1 — —
2 Vaduz 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 -1 — —

* Point deductions: Servette (-3 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thun 60 50.41 +9.59
2 Grasshopper 50 42.23 +7.77
3 Basel 70 65.45 +4.55
4 Zurich 48 45.09 +2.91
5 Servette 20 18.46 +1.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Gallen 36 44.83 -8.83
2 Aarau 32 40.75 -8.75
3 Young Boys 49 55.58 -6.58
4 Neuchatel Xamax 38 41.43 -3.43
5 Schaffhausen 32 32.76 -0.76

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thun 7 Mar 20 – Apr 27 1 in 223
2 Neuchatel Xamax 4 Oct 31 – Nov 28 1 in 80
3 Grasshopper 4 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 60
4 Zurich 3 Sep 26 – Oct 16 1 in 31
5 Basel 6 Apr 20 – May 11 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aarau 6 Mar 20 – Apr 20 1 in 156
2 Neuchatel Xamax 4 Mar 16 – Apr 17 1 in 71
3 Zurich 3 Aug 6 – Aug 21 1 in 27
4 Grasshopper 3 Sep 26 – Oct 17 1 in 21
5 Young Boys 2 Sep 22 – Sep 25 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grasshopper 10 Mar 12 – May 1 1 in 75
2 Servette 6 Aug 21 – Oct 2 1 in 29
3 Young Boys 9 Apr 17 – May 29 1 in 23
4 Aarau 6 Aug 28 – Oct 16 1 in 22
5 St. Gallen 6 Dec 5 – Mar 20 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aarau 12 Dec 5 – Apr 27 1 in 58
2 Neuchatel Xamax 8 May 1 – May 28 1 in 16
3 Zurich 7 Apr 10 – May 11 1 in 14
4 Young Boys 5 Apr 10 – Apr 27 1 in 14
5 Grasshopper 7 Aug 25 – Oct 17 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Basel 1775 70 +9 12 10.0 +2.0
Thun 1680 60 -12 5 7.4 -2.4
Grasshopper 1625 50 +29 10 5.2 +4.8
Young Boys 1681 49 +6 9 8.6 +0.4
Zurich 1613 48 +15 10 6.8 +3.2
Neuchatel Xamax 1543 38 -27 1 5.4 -4.4
Schaffhausen 1506 36 +12 10 5.2 +4.8
St. Gallen 1595 36 +8 5 6.4 -1.4
Aarau 1527 32 -10 3 5.9 -2.9
Servette 1585 23 +7 7 6.5 +0.5
Vaduz 1524 1 -6 1 2.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAR BAS GRA NX SCH SER SG THU YB ZUR
Aarau —
1-0-3
3.01
0-2-2
5.25
0-2-2
5.21
1-2-1
6.18
1-0-1
2.64
2-1-1
4.85
0-1-3
4.26
0-3-1
3.68
2-0-2
4.56
Basel
3-0-1
8.00
 —
3-0-1
7.93
3-1-0
8.10
2-1-1
8.75
2-0-0
3.97
3-0-1
7.76
1-1-2
7.14
2-2-0
6.46
2-2-0
7.35
Grasshopper
2-2-0
5.55
1-0-3
3.07
 —
2-1-1
5.51
3-1-0
6.47
0-1-1
2.79
1-3-0
5.26
3-1-0
4.39
0-2-2
4.06
0-3-1
5.03
Neuchatel Xamax
2-2-0
5.58
0-1-3
2.94
1-1-2
5.26
 —
1-1-2
6.49
2-0-0
2.77
2-0-2
5.06
0-1-3
4.52
1-0-3
4.04
1-2-1
4.82
Schaffhausen
1-2-1
4.62
1-1-2
2.41
0-1-3
4.34
2-1-1
4.34
 —
0-1-1
2.32
1-3-0
4.02
0-0-4
3.55
0-1-3
3.14
2-1-1
3.83
Servette
1-0-1
2.73
0-0-2
1.53
1-1-0
2.60
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
3.07
 —
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
1.86
1-0-1
2.22
St. Gallen
1-1-2
5.92
1-0-3
3.22
0-3-1
5.50
2-0-2
5.71
0-3-1
6.81
0-2-0
2.90
 —
1-1-2
4.49
2-2-0
4.29
1-0-3
5.22
Thun
3-1-0
6.58
2-1-1
3.73
0-1-3
6.44
3-1-0
6.28
4-0-0
7.38
1-0-1
3.14
2-1-1
6.30
 —
2-1-1
4.94
1-0-3
6.10
Young Boys
1-3-0
7.20
0-2-2
4.36
2-2-0
6.77
3-0-1
6.79
3-1-0
7.84
0-1-1
3.59
0-2-2
6.53
1-1-2
5.85
 —
2-1-1
6.27
Zurich
2-0-2
6.25
0-2-2
3.56
1-3-0
5.74
1-2-1
5.96
1-1-2
7.04
1-0-1
3.17
3-0-1
5.56
3-0-1
4.71
1-1-2
4.53
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +8.3
Allowed 0.00 -0.3
Differential 0.72 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.10%6.71%2.74%1.52%1.22%1.52%19.82%
16.71%18.29%8.84%3.96%2.13%1.22%41.16%
22.74%8.84%3.05%2.44%1.22%0.61%18.90%
31.52%3.96%2.44%2.44%0.30%0.30%10.98%
41.22%2.13%1.22%0.30%—0.30%5.18%
5+1.52%1.22%0.61%0.30%0.30%—3.96%
Total19.82%41.16%18.90%10.98%5.18%3.96%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.96
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 164

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%8.82%2.94%——8.82%29.41%
12.94%20.59%11.76%2.94%—2.94%41.18%
2—2.94%—5.88%2.94%—11.76%
3—8.82%—2.94%——11.76%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+———————
Total14.71%44.12%14.71%11.76%2.94%11.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.88 -0.65
SD 1.18 1.75 2.25
CV 0.96 0.93 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%5.88%—2.94%——11.76%
15.88%11.76%—2.94%5.88%—26.47%
25.88%14.71%2.94%———23.53%
3—2.94%5.88%2.94%——11.76%
42.94%5.88%2.94%2.94%——14.71%
5+5.88%2.94%2.94%———11.76%
Total23.53%44.12%14.71%11.76%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.38 1.32 +1.06
SD 1.86 1.15 2.30
CV 0.78 0.87 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%2.94%8.82%———20.59%
18.82%23.53%——2.94%2.94%38.24%
2—11.76%5.88%5.88%——23.53%
3—2.94%2.94%2.94%——8.82%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+——2.94%———2.94%
Total20.59%44.12%20.59%8.82%2.94%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.47 +0.03
SD 1.26 1.52 1.90
CV 0.84 1.04 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%8.82%5.88%2.94%2.94%2.94%32.35%
12.94%14.71%20.59%———38.24%
22.94%14.71%——2.94%—20.59%
35.88%2.94%————8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.59%41.18%26.47%2.94%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.41 -0.35
SD 0.95 1.21 1.74
CV 0.90 0.86 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%5.56%—2.78%—25.00%
111.11%22.22%8.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%52.78%
2—8.33%5.56%———13.89%
3——2.78%2.78%2.78%—8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.89%44.44%22.22%5.56%11.11%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.67 -0.61
SD 0.86 1.37 1.46
CV 0.81 0.82 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%5.56%—16.67%
15.56%22.22%22.22%———50.00%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.56 -0.22
SD 1.03 1.04 1.83
CV 0.77 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%5.88%—2.94%2.94%—23.53%
12.94%11.76%8.82%11.76%2.94%—38.24%
22.94%2.94%5.88%2.94%——14.71%
3—5.88%2.94%5.88%——14.71%
4——2.94%——2.94%5.88%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total20.59%26.47%20.59%23.53%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.76 -0.26
SD 1.33 1.35 1.73
CV 0.89 0.76 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%11.76%————20.59%
18.82%5.88%2.94%5.88%2.94%—26.47%
22.94%8.82%———2.94%14.71%
38.82%5.88%—2.94%—2.94%20.59%
42.94%2.94%2.94%———8.82%
5+2.94%5.88%————8.82%
Total35.29%41.18%5.88%8.82%2.94%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 1.24 +0.79
SD 1.73 1.50 2.27
CV 0.85 1.21 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—2.94%————2.94%
111.76%32.35%5.88%5.88%——55.88%
2—5.88%2.94%2.94%5.88%2.94%20.59%
3—2.94%5.88%2.94%——11.76%
4—2.94%————2.94%
5+2.94%2.94%————5.88%
Total14.71%50.00%14.71%11.76%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.76 1.53 +0.24
SD 1.28 1.24 1.72
CV 0.73 0.81 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%—2.94%——2.94%11.76%
15.88%17.65%14.71%5.88%—2.94%47.06%
28.82%8.82%2.94%5.88%——26.47%
3—2.94%2.94%———5.88%
4——2.94%———2.94%
5+———2.94%2.94%—5.88%
Total20.59%29.41%26.47%14.71%2.94%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.68 -0.06
SD 1.33 1.36 1.70
CV 0.82 0.81 —
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Basel 1775 70 65.45 +4.55 78.0% 45 54 61 66 70 76 83
Young Boys 1681 49 55.58 -6.58 21.0% 35 44 50 55 61 66 75
Thun 1680 60 50.41 +9.59 94.0% 38 40 45 50 54 61 68
Grasshopper 1625 50 42.23 +7.77 89.0% 26 33 38 42 46 53 57
Zurich 1613 48 45.09 +2.91 73.0% 30 35 40 44 49 57 61
St. Gallen 1595 36 44.83 -8.83 12.0% 28 33 40 45 50 55 58
Servette 1585 20 18.46 +1.54 66.0% 4 8 15 18 22 28 30
Neuchatel Xamax 1543 38 41.43 -3.43 36.0% 25 30 36 41 47 53 57
Aarau 1527 32 40.75 -8.75 10.0% 28 30 35 39 46 53 60
Schaffhausen 1506 32 32.76 -0.76 51.0% 19 23 28 32 37 44 52

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 15% * Slight Edge: 15% to 22.5% * Clear Edge: 22.5% to 26.5% * Strong Edge: 26.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.24%
Slight Edge
42.68%29.88%27.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
157 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
053.38400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Basel, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.290.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.36 * Some Luck: 5.36 to 8.04 * Lucky: 8.04 to 10.72 * Wild Swing: 10.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.41 * Off: 1.41 to 1.88 * Way Off: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.27 points
Some Luck
06.7017
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.182.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Thun
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
10.00%
Aarau
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 76% * Wide Edge: 76% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 94.5% * Dominant: 94.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 55.5% * Frequent: 55.5% to 59.5% * Very Frequent: 59.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18% * Occasional: 18% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 82.60
2.05
Strong Separation
11.651.852.052.75
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%63%71%76%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17.5% * As Expected: 17.5% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 22.5% * Very Shaky: 22.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.89
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.69
Strong Carryover
00.420.631
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.63
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Basel78.00%14.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Thun4.00%24.00%28.00%11.00%18.00%7.00%6.00%2.00%——
Grasshopper1.00%2.00%7.00%15.00%19.00%12.00%19.00%18.00%7.00%—
Young Boys13.00%42.00%20.00%14.00%5.00%5.00%—1.00%——
Zurich1.00%7.00%11.00%22.00%14.00%20.00%14.00%9.00%2.00%—
Neuchatel Xamax1.00%1.00%12.00%8.00%11.00%16.00%21.00%21.00%9.00%—
St. Gallen—7.00%12.00%16.00%20.00%18.00%10.00%11.00%6.00%—
Aarau2.00%3.00%3.00%11.00%11.00%14.00%20.00%22.00%14.00%—
Schaffhausen——1.00%2.00%1.00%8.00%10.00%16.00%56.00%6.00%
Servette————————6.00%94.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
Basel 100% — —
Thun 100% — —
Young Boys 100% — —
Zurich 98.00% 2.00% —
St. Gallen 94.00% 6.00% —
Grasshopper 93.00% 7.00% —
Neuchatel Xamax 91.00% 9.00% —
Aarau 86.00% 14.00% —
Schaffhausen — 100% —
Servette — 6.00% 94.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Won relegation playoff Lost relegation playoff
Schaffhausen 45.24% 54.76%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-07-17 Aarau W 6-046.3 1745 1570 64.61% 21.72% 13.67%+1.46 +10.0 3
2004-07-17 @ Basel L 0-646.3 1570 1745 13.67% 21.72% 64.61%-1.46 -10.0 0
2004-07-17 Neuchatel Xamax D 1-162.9 1526 1571 35.93% 31.41% 32.67%+0.05 -0.1 1
2004-07-17 @ Schaffhausen D 1-162.9 1571 1526 32.67% 31.41% 35.93%-0.05 +0.1 1
2004-07-17 Young Boys D 3-376.8 1618 1682 33.17% 31.42% 35.41%-0.07 +0.0 1
2004-07-17 @ St. Gallen D 3-376.8 1682 1618 35.41% 31.42% 33.17%+0.07 -0.0 1
2004-07-17 Zurich D 1-166.2 1590 1627 36.97% 31.36% 31.67%+0.10 -0.1 1
2004-07-17 @ Grasshopper D 1-166.2 1627 1590 31.67% 31.36% 36.97%-0.10 +0.1 1
2004-07-20 Servette W 3-049.7 1607 1589 44.67% 30.22% 25.10%+0.45 +10.0 3
2004-07-20 @ Thun L 0-349.7 1589 1607 25.10% 30.22% 44.67%-0.45 -10.0 0
2004-07-23 Grasshopper D 2-270.3 1579 1589 40.86% 30.95% 28.19%+0.28 -0.2 1
2004-07-23 @ Servette D 2-270.3 1589 1579 28.19% 30.95% 40.86%-0.28 +0.2 2
2004-07-23 Neuchatel Xamax D 1-171.0 1755 1571 65.61% 21.15% 13.24%+1.52 -1.4 4
2004-07-23 @ Basel D 1-171.0 1571 1755 13.24% 21.15% 65.61%-1.52 +1.4 2
2004-07-23 Schaffhausen W 6-147.6 1682 1526 62.38% 22.97% 14.65%+1.34 +7.6 4
2004-07-23 @ Young Boys L 1-647.6 1526 1682 14.65% 22.97% 62.38%-1.34 -7.6 1
2004-07-27 St. Gallen W 3-158.2 1627 1618 43.48% 30.49% 26.03%+0.40 +6.1 4
2004-07-27 @ Zurich L 1-358.2 1618 1627 26.03% 30.49% 43.48%-0.40 -6.1 1
2004-07-27 Thun L 0-157.4 1560 1617 34.16% 31.44% 34.41%-0.02 -4.6 0
2004-07-27 @ Aarau W 1-057.4 1617 1560 34.41% 31.44% 34.16%+0.02 +4.6 6
2004-07-30 Basel L 1-259.9 1579 1754 20.89% 28.42% 50.69%-0.78 -2.9 1
2004-07-30 @ Servette W 2-159.9 1754 1579 50.69% 28.42% 20.89%+0.78 +2.9 7
2004-07-31 Aarau W 2-157.7 1572 1555 44.67% 30.23% 25.11%+0.45 +3.4 5
2004-07-31 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-257.7 1555 1572 25.11% 30.23% 44.67%-0.45 -3.4 0
2004-07-31 St. Gallen W 3-267.2 1518 1612 29.22% 31.11% 39.67%-0.26 +4.6 4
2004-07-31 @ Schaffhausen L 2-367.2 1612 1518 39.67% 31.11% 29.22%+0.26 -4.6 1
2004-07-31 Thun W 1-056.1 1633 1621 43.93% 30.39% 25.68%+0.42 +3.7 7
2004-07-31 @ Zurich L 0-156.1 1621 1633 25.68% 30.39% 43.93%-0.42 -3.7 6
2004-08-06 Zurich W 2-158.2 1757 1637 57.98% 25.27% 16.75%+1.11 +2.3 10
2004-08-06 @ Basel L 1-258.2 1637 1757 16.75% 25.27% 57.98%-1.11 -2.3 7
2004-08-07 Neuchatel Xamax W 4-260.0 1608 1576 46.65% 29.72% 23.63%+0.54 +5.1 4
2004-08-07 @ St. Gallen L 2-460.0 1576 1608 23.63% 29.72% 46.65%-0.54 -5.0 5
2004-08-07 Servette W 4-049.1 1552 1576 38.80% 31.21% 29.99%+0.18 +15.0 3
2004-08-07 @ Aarau L 0-449.1 1576 1552 29.99% 31.21% 38.80%-0.18 -15.0 1
2004-08-07 Young Boys W 3-162.5 1618 1690 32.01% 31.38% 36.61%-0.12 +7.9 9
2004-08-07 @ Thun L 1-362.5 1690 1618 36.61% 31.38% 32.01%+0.12 -7.9 4
2004-08-08 Schaffhausen W 1-050.5 1590 1523 51.27% 28.20% 20.53%+0.77 +3.0 5
2004-08-08 @ Grasshopper L 0-150.5 1523 1590 20.53% 28.20% 51.27%-0.77 -3.0 4
2004-08-14 Aarau L 1-364.2 1635 1566 51.45% 28.13% 20.42%+0.78 -10.1 7
2004-08-14 @ Zurich W 3-164.2 1566 1635 20.42% 28.13% 51.45%-0.78 +10.1 6
2004-08-14 Thun L 0-154.5 1520 1625 27.81% 30.89% 41.30%-0.33 -4.0 4
2004-08-14 @ Schaffhausen W 1-054.5 1625 1520 41.30% 30.89% 27.81%+0.33 +4.0 12
2004-08-15 Basel D 1-168.8 1682 1759 31.41% 31.34% 37.25%-0.15 +0.1 5
2004-08-15 @ Young Boys D 1-168.8 1759 1682 37.25% 31.34% 31.41%+0.15 -0.1 11
2004-08-15 Grasshopper D 0-062.4 1613 1593 45.04% 30.14% 24.82%+0.47 -0.6 5
2004-08-15 @ St. Gallen D 0-062.4 1593 1613 24.82% 30.14% 45.04%-0.47 +0.6 6
2004-08-15 Servette W 3-048.4 1571 1561 43.59% 30.46% 25.95%+0.40 +10.2 8
2004-08-15 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-348.4 1561 1571 25.95% 30.46% 43.59%-0.40 -10.2 1
2004-08-20 Schaffhausen D 1-171.4 1759 1516 71.96% 17.36% 10.68%+1.89 -1.7 12
2004-08-20 @ Basel D 1-171.4 1516 1759 10.68% 17.36% 71.96%-1.89 +1.7 5
2004-08-21 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-159.2 1593 1581 43.97% 30.38% 25.65%+0.42 +3.5 9
2004-08-21 @ Grasshopper L 1-259.2 1581 1593 25.65% 30.38% 43.97%-0.42 -3.5 8
2004-08-21 Young Boys L 1-359.0 1577 1682 27.80% 30.88% 41.32%-0.33 -6.4 6
2004-08-21 @ Aarau W 3-159.0 1682 1577 41.32% 30.88% 27.80%+0.33 +6.5 8
2004-08-21 Zurich W 2-162.8 1551 1625 31.86% 31.37% 36.78%-0.13 +4.6 4
2004-08-21 @ Servette L 1-262.8 1625 1551 36.78% 31.37% 31.86%+0.13 -4.6 7
2004-08-22 St. Gallen D 1-167.0 1629 1612 44.64% 30.23% 25.13%+0.45 -0.5 13
2004-08-22 @ Thun D 1-167.0 1612 1629 25.13% 30.23% 44.64%-0.45 +0.5 6
2004-08-25 Grasshopper D 1-168.7 1689 1597 54.51% 26.88% 18.61%+0.93 -1.0 9
2004-08-25 @ Young Boys D 1-168.7 1597 1689 18.61% 26.88% 54.51%-0.93 +1.0 10
2004-08-28 Aarau D 3-371.8 1518 1570 34.80% 31.43% 33.76%+0.00 -0.0 6
2004-08-28 @ Schaffhausen D 3-371.8 1570 1518 33.76% 31.43% 34.80%+0.00 +0.0 7
2004-08-28 Thun D 0-062.5 1598 1629 37.87% 31.29% 30.83%+0.14 -0.2 11
2004-08-28 @ Grasshopper D 0-062.5 1629 1598 30.83% 31.29% 37.87%-0.14 +0.2 14
2004-08-28 Zurich D 1-165.8 1577 1620 36.25% 31.39% 32.36%+0.07 -0.1 9
2004-08-28 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-165.8 1620 1577 32.36% 31.39% 36.25%-0.07 +0.1 8
2004-08-29 Basel L 0-156.7 1613 1757 23.61% 29.71% 46.68%-0.58 -3.5 6
2004-08-29 @ St. Gallen W 1-056.7 1757 1613 46.68% 29.71% 23.61%+0.58 +3.5 15
2004-08-29 Servette D 1-168.8 1688 1555 59.50% 24.50% 16.00%+1.19 -1.2 10
2004-08-29 @ Young Boys D 1-168.8 1555 1688 16.00% 24.50% 59.50%-1.19 +1.2 5
2004-09-11 Neuchatel Xamax W 3-048.6 1629 1577 49.29% 28.91% 21.80%+0.67 +8.8 17
2004-09-11 @ Thun L 0-348.6 1577 1629 21.80% 28.91% 49.29%-0.67 -8.8 9
2004-09-11 Schaffhausen D 1-162.8 1557 1518 47.62% 29.44% 22.94%+0.59 -0.6 6
2004-09-11 @ Servette D 1-162.8 1518 1557 22.94% 29.44% 47.62%-0.59 +0.6 7
2004-09-11 St. Gallen W 4-156.6 1570 1609 36.75% 31.37% 31.88%+0.09 +10.1 10
2004-09-11 @ Aarau L 1-456.6 1609 1570 31.88% 31.37% 36.75%-0.09 -10.1 6
2004-09-11 Young Boys L 2-368.9 1620 1687 32.83% 31.41% 35.76%-0.08 -4.0 8
2004-09-11 @ Zurich W 3-268.9 1687 1620 35.76% 31.41% 32.83%+0.08 +4.0 13
2004-09-12 Grasshopper W 8-149.4 1761 1597 63.18% 22.53% 14.29%+1.38 +10.1 18
2004-09-12 @ Basel L 1-849.4 1597 1761 14.29% 22.53% 63.18%-1.38 -10.1 11
2004-09-22 Aarau D 1-165.3 1587 1580 43.25% 30.53% 26.21%+0.39 -0.4 12
2004-09-22 @ Grasshopper D 1-165.3 1580 1587 26.21% 30.53% 43.25%-0.39 +0.4 11
2004-09-22 Basel W 4-163.4 1638 1771 24.78% 30.12% 45.10%-0.51 +13.0 20
2004-09-22 @ Thun L 1-463.4 1771 1638 45.10% 30.12% 24.78%+0.51 -13.0 18
2004-09-22 Servette D 1-165.3 1599 1556 48.15% 29.28% 22.58%+0.62 -0.7 7
2004-09-22 @ St. Gallen D 1-165.3 1556 1599 22.58% 29.28% 48.15%-0.62 +0.7 7
2004-09-22 Young Boys W 3-163.7 1569 1691 25.94% 30.46% 43.60%-0.44 +8.9 12
2004-09-22 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-363.7 1691 1569 43.60% 30.46% 25.94%+0.44 -8.9 13
2004-09-22 Zurich W 2-162.6 1518 1616 28.73% 31.04% 40.23%-0.28 +4.9 10
2004-09-22 @ Schaffhausen L 1-262.6 1616 1518 40.23% 31.04% 28.73%+0.28 -4.9 8
2004-09-25 Basel W 1-064.2 1581 1758 20.69% 28.30% 51.01%-0.79 +6.1 14
2004-09-25 @ Aarau L 0-164.2 1758 1581 51.01% 28.30% 20.69%+0.79 -6.1 18
2004-09-25 Schaffhausen W 1-050.6 1577 1523 49.66% 28.78% 21.56%+0.69 +3.2 15
2004-09-25 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-150.6 1523 1577 21.56% 28.78% 49.66%-0.69 -3.2 10
2004-09-25 St. Gallen L 0-163.9 1682 1598 53.39% 27.36% 19.25%+0.87 -6.4 13
2004-09-25 @ Young Boys W 1-063.9 1598 1682 19.25% 27.36% 53.39%-0.87 +6.4 10
2004-09-26 Grasshopper W 2-051.5 1611 1587 45.61% 29.99% 24.39%+0.50 +6.7 11
2004-09-26 @ Zurich L 0-251.5 1587 1611 24.39% 29.99% 45.61%-0.50 -6.7 12
2004-09-26 Thun W 3-161.7 1557 1651 29.20% 31.11% 39.69%-0.26 +8.3 10
2004-09-26 @ Servette L 1-361.7 1651 1557 39.69% 31.11% 29.20%+0.26 -8.3 20
2004-10-02 Servette L 0-256.2 1580 1565 44.37% 30.29% 25.34%+0.44 -10.5 12
2004-10-02 @ Grasshopper W 2-056.2 1565 1580 25.34% 30.29% 44.37%-0.44 +10.4 13
2004-10-02 Zurich L 1-264.9 1605 1618 40.43% 31.01% 28.56%+0.26 -4.9 10
2004-10-02 @ St. Gallen W 2-164.9 1618 1605 28.56% 31.01% 40.43%-0.26 +4.9 14
2004-10-03 Aarau D 0-063.4 1642 1587 49.81% 28.73% 21.46%+0.70 -0.8 21
2004-10-03 @ Thun D 0-063.4 1587 1642 21.46% 28.73% 49.81%-0.70 +0.8 15
2004-10-03 Basel L 1-260.0 1581 1752 21.20% 28.59% 50.21%-0.75 -3.0 15
2004-10-03 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-160.0 1752 1581 50.21% 28.59% 21.20%+0.75 +3.0 21
2004-10-03 Young Boys D 1-166.3 1520 1675 22.58% 29.28% 48.14%-0.65 +0.7 11
2004-10-03 @ Schaffhausen D 1-166.3 1675 1520 48.14% 29.28% 22.58%+0.65 -0.7 14
2004-10-16 Neuchatel Xamax D 0-061.4 1588 1578 43.65% 30.45% 25.90%+0.40 -0.5 16
2004-10-16 @ Aarau D 0-061.4 1578 1588 25.90% 30.45% 43.65%-0.40 +0.5 16
2004-10-16 Servette W 2-155.6 1755 1575 65.03% 21.49% 13.49%+1.49 +1.8 24
2004-10-16 @ Basel L 1-255.6 1575 1755 13.49% 21.49% 65.03%-1.49 -1.8 13
2004-10-16 Zurich L 0-162.0 1642 1623 44.87% 30.18% 24.95%+0.46 -5.6 21
2004-10-16 @ Thun W 1-062.0 1623 1642 24.95% 30.18% 44.87%-0.46 +5.6 17
2004-10-17 Schaffhausen D 2-270.0 1600 1520 52.91% 27.56% 19.53%+0.85 -0.7 11
2004-10-17 @ St. Gallen D 2-270.0 1520 1600 19.53% 27.56% 52.91%-0.85 +0.7 12
2004-10-17 Young Boys L 0-156.8 1570 1675 27.89% 30.90% 41.20%-0.33 -4.0 12
2004-10-17 @ Grasshopper W 1-056.8 1675 1570 41.20% 30.90% 27.89%+0.33 +4.0 17
2004-10-30 Aarau W 1-055.2 1574 1587 40.38% 31.02% 28.60%+0.25 +4.0 16
2004-10-30 @ Servette L 0-155.2 1587 1574 28.60% 31.02% 40.38%-0.25 -4.0 16
2004-10-31 Basel D 0-064.9 1628 1757 25.29% 30.28% 44.43%-0.48 +0.5 18
2004-10-31 @ Zurich D 0-064.9 1757 1628 44.43% 30.28% 25.29%+0.48 -0.5 25
2004-10-31 Grasshopper L 1-260.0 1521 1566 35.94% 31.41% 32.65%+0.06 -4.5 12
2004-10-31 @ Schaffhausen W 2-160.0 1566 1521 32.65% 31.41% 35.94%-0.06 +4.5 15
2004-10-31 St. Gallen W 3-050.9 1578 1599 39.31% 31.15% 29.54%+0.21 +11.3 19
2004-10-31 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-350.9 1599 1578 29.54% 31.15% 39.31%-0.21 -11.3 11
2004-10-31 Thun W 2-160.5 1679 1636 48.08% 29.30% 22.63%+0.61 +3.1 20
2004-10-31 @ Young Boys L 1-260.5 1636 1679 22.63% 29.30% 48.08%-0.61 -3.1 21
2004-11-07 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-263.7 1578 1590 40.62% 30.99% 28.40%+0.27 -4.9 16
2004-11-07 @ Servette W 2-163.7 1590 1578 28.40% 30.99% 40.62%-0.27 +4.9 22
2004-11-07 Schaffhausen W 2-154.4 1633 1517 57.54% 25.48% 16.98%+1.08 +2.3 24
2004-11-07 @ Thun L 1-254.4 1517 1633 16.98% 25.48% 57.54%-1.08 -2.4 12
2004-11-07 St. Gallen D 0-061.0 1570 1588 39.80% 31.10% 29.11%+0.23 -0.3 16
2004-11-07 @ Grasshopper D 0-061.0 1588 1570 29.11% 31.10% 39.80%-0.23 +0.3 12
2004-11-07 Young Boys W 2-160.2 1756 1682 52.24% 27.83% 19.93%+0.81 +2.8 28
2004-11-07 @ Basel L 1-260.2 1682 1756 19.93% 27.83% 52.24%-0.81 -2.8 20
2004-11-07 Zurich W 3-159.8 1583 1629 35.78% 31.41% 32.81%+0.05 +7.3 19
2004-11-07 @ Aarau L 1-359.8 1629 1583 32.81% 31.41% 35.78%-0.05 -7.3 18
2004-11-14 Aarau D 1-168.4 1679 1590 54.07% 27.07% 18.85%+0.91 -0.9 21
2004-11-14 @ Young Boys D 1-168.4 1590 1679 18.85% 27.07% 54.07%-0.91 +0.9 20
2004-11-14 Basel W 1-064.8 1514 1759 16.02% 24.52% 59.46%-1.22 +6.9 15
2004-11-14 @ Schaffhausen L 0-164.8 1759 1514 59.46% 24.52% 16.02%+1.22 -6.9 28
2004-11-14 Grasshopper W 2-050.6 1594 1570 45.63% 29.99% 24.38%+0.50 +6.7 25
2004-11-14 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-250.6 1570 1594 24.38% 29.99% 45.63%-0.50 -6.7 16
2004-11-14 Servette W 2-158.2 1622 1573 48.91% 29.03% 22.06%+0.65 +3.1 21
2004-11-14 @ Zurich L 1-258.2 1573 1622 22.06% 29.03% 48.91%-0.65 -3.1 16
2004-11-14 Thun W 3-160.1 1588 1635 35.60% 31.42% 32.98%+0.04 +7.3 15
2004-11-14 @ St. Gallen L 1-360.1 1635 1588 32.98% 31.42% 35.60%-0.04 -7.3 24
2004-11-28 Grasshopper L 0-161.8 1628 1563 50.99% 28.31% 20.70%+0.75 -6.1 24
2004-11-28 @ Thun W 1-061.8 1563 1628 20.70% 28.31% 50.99%-0.75 +6.1 19
2004-11-28 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-266.2 1625 1601 45.52% 30.02% 24.47%+0.49 -5.3 21
2004-11-28 @ Zurich W 2-166.2 1601 1625 24.47% 30.02% 45.52%-0.49 +5.3 28
2004-11-28 Schaffhausen W 2-155.1 1591 1521 51.71% 28.04% 20.25%+0.79 +2.8 23
2004-11-28 @ Aarau L 1-255.1 1521 1591 20.25% 28.04% 51.71%-0.79 -2.8 15
2004-11-28 St. Gallen W 1-051.8 1752 1596 62.37% 22.98% 14.65%+1.34 +2.1 31
2004-11-28 @ Basel L 0-151.8 1596 1752 14.65% 22.98% 62.37%-1.34 -2.1 15
2004-11-28 Young Boys W 2-165.7 1570 1678 27.50% 30.82% 41.68%-0.35 +5.0 19
2004-11-28 @ Servette L 1-265.7 1678 1570 41.68% 30.82% 27.50%+0.35 -5.0 21
2004-12-05 Aarau W 2-160.0 1593 1594 42.17% 30.74% 27.09%+0.34 +3.7 18
2004-12-05 @ St. Gallen L 1-260.0 1594 1593 27.09% 30.74% 42.17%-0.34 -3.7 23
2004-12-05 Basel L 2-364.3 1569 1754 20.11% 27.94% 51.95%-0.84 -2.7 19
2004-12-05 @ Grasshopper W 3-264.3 1754 1569 51.95% 27.94% 20.11%+0.84 +2.7 34
2004-12-05 Servette L 1-454.8 1518 1575 34.26% 31.44% 34.30%-0.02 -10.6 15
2004-12-05 @ Schaffhausen W 4-154.8 1575 1518 34.30% 31.44% 34.26%+0.02 +10.6 22
2004-12-05 Thun L 0-257.1 1606 1622 40.12% 31.06% 28.83%+0.24 -9.7 28
2004-12-05 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-057.1 1622 1606 28.83% 31.06% 40.12%-0.24 +9.7 27
2004-12-05 Zurich L 2-469.6 1673 1619 49.55% 28.82% 21.63%+0.68 -8.8 21
2004-12-05 @ Young Boys W 4-269.6 1619 1673 21.63% 28.82% 49.55%-0.68 +8.8 24
2004-12-11 Thun D 3-379.6 1757 1632 58.63% 24.94% 16.43%+1.14 -0.7 35
2004-12-11 @ Basel D 3-379.6 1632 1757 16.43% 24.94% 58.63%-1.14 +0.7 28
2004-12-12 Grasshopper L 1-264.6 1591 1567 45.54% 30.01% 24.45%+0.49 -5.3 23
2004-12-12 @ Aarau W 2-164.6 1567 1591 24.45% 30.01% 45.54%-0.49 +5.3 22
2004-12-12 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-158.7 1664 1597 51.37% 28.17% 20.47%+0.77 +2.9 24
2004-12-12 @ Young Boys L 1-258.7 1597 1664 20.47% 28.17% 51.37%-0.77 -2.9 28
2004-12-12 Schaffhausen D 1-166.0 1628 1508 58.05% 25.23% 16.71%+1.11 -1.1 25
2004-12-12 @ Zurich D 1-166.0 1508 1628 16.71% 25.23% 58.05%-1.11 +1.1 16
2004-12-12 St. Gallen D 1-165.5 1585 1597 40.63% 30.99% 28.38%+0.27 -0.3 23
2004-12-12 @ Servette D 1-165.5 1597 1585 28.38% 30.99% 40.63%-0.27 +0.3 19
2005-02-20 Basel W 3-165.9 1597 1756 22.31% 29.15% 48.54%-0.67 +9.7 22
2005-02-20 @ St. Gallen L 1-365.9 1756 1597 48.54% 29.15% 22.31%+0.67 -9.7 35
2005-02-20 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-264.1 1585 1594 41.05% 30.92% 28.02%+0.29 -4.9 23
2005-02-20 @ Aarau W 2-164.1 1594 1585 28.02% 30.92% 41.05%-0.29 +4.9 31
2005-02-20 Schaffhausen W 2-046.2 1627 1509 57.78% 25.37% 16.85%+1.10 +4.7 28
2005-02-20 @ Zurich L 0-246.2 1509 1627 16.85% 25.37% 57.78%-1.10 -4.7 16
2005-02-27 Young Boys D 1-166.7 1572 1667 29.09% 31.09% 39.82%-0.27 +0.3 23
2005-02-27 @ Grasshopper D 1-166.7 1667 1572 39.82% 31.09% 29.09%+0.27 -0.3 25
2005-03-06 Grasshopper W 4-150.7 1746 1572 64.41% 21.84% 13.75%+1.45 +4.5 38
2005-03-06 @ Basel L 1-450.7 1572 1746 13.75% 21.84% 64.41%-1.45 -4.5 23
2005-03-06 Neuchatel Xamax D 0-063.1 1632 1599 46.78% 29.68% 23.54%+0.55 -0.7 29
2005-03-06 @ Zurich D 0-063.1 1599 1632 23.54% 29.68% 46.78%-0.55 +0.7 32
2005-03-12 Neuchatel Xamax D 1-165.1 1568 1599 37.82% 31.30% 30.89%+0.14 -0.2 24
2005-03-12 @ Grasshopper D 1-165.1 1599 1568 30.89% 31.30% 37.82%-0.14 +0.2 33
2005-03-13 Basel W 3-057.9 1632 1751 26.33% 30.56% 43.11%-0.42 +14.8 31
2005-03-13 @ Thun L 0-357.9 1751 1632 43.11% 30.56% 26.33%+0.42 -14.8 38
2005-03-13 St. Gallen D 0-059.7 1504 1607 28.13% 30.94% 40.93%-0.32 +0.4 17
2005-03-13 @ Schaffhausen D 0-059.7 1607 1504 40.93% 30.94% 28.13%+0.32 -0.3 23
2005-03-13 Young Boys L 0-555.3 1631 1667 37.21% 31.34% 31.45%+0.11 -21.5 29
2005-03-13 @ Zurich W 5-055.3 1667 1631 31.45% 31.34% 37.21%-0.11 +21.5 28
2005-03-16 Aarau D 0-062.1 1607 1580 45.91% 29.92% 24.18%+0.51 -0.6 24
2005-03-16 @ St. Gallen D 0-062.1 1580 1607 24.18% 29.92% 45.91%-0.51 +0.6 24
2005-03-16 Neuchatel Xamax W 1-053.6 1688 1600 54.09% 27.07% 18.84%+0.91 +2.8 31
2005-03-16 @ Young Boys L 0-153.6 1600 1688 18.84% 27.07% 54.09%-0.91 -2.8 33
2005-03-16 Schaffhausen W 4-360.5 1736 1505 70.73% 18.11% 11.16%+1.82 +1.3 41
2005-03-16 @ Basel L 3-460.5 1505 1736 11.16% 18.11% 70.73%-1.82 -1.3 17
2005-03-16 Thun W 1-059.2 1568 1647 31.10% 31.32% 37.59%-0.17 +4.9 27
2005-03-16 @ Grasshopper L 0-159.2 1647 1568 37.59% 31.32% 31.10%+0.17 -4.9 31
2005-03-20 Basel D 2-273.5 1610 1737 25.34% 30.30% 44.36%-0.47 +0.4 30
2005-03-20 @ Zurich D 2-273.5 1737 1610 44.36% 30.30% 25.34%+0.47 -0.4 42
2005-03-20 Grasshopper L 2-368.8 1581 1573 43.41% 30.50% 26.09%+0.39 -4.9 24
2005-03-20 @ Aarau W 3-268.8 1573 1581 26.09% 30.50% 43.41%-0.39 +4.9 30
2005-03-20 St. Gallen L 2-373.8 1691 1606 53.62% 27.26% 19.11%+0.88 -5.7 31
2005-03-20 @ Young Boys W 3-273.8 1606 1691 19.11% 27.26% 53.62%-0.88 +5.7 27
2005-03-20 Thun L 0-153.1 1503 1642 24.18% 29.92% 45.90%-0.55 -3.5 17
2005-03-20 @ Schaffhausen W 1-053.1 1642 1503 45.90% 29.92% 24.18%+0.55 +3.5 34
2005-04-02 Aarau W 4-257.4 1737 1576 62.89% 22.69% 14.42%+1.37 +3.0 45
2005-04-02 @ Basel L 2-457.4 1576 1737 14.42% 22.69% 62.89%-1.37 -3.0 24
2005-04-02 Schaffhausen W 3-151.0 1578 1500 52.70% 27.65% 19.66%+0.84 +4.8 33
2005-04-02 @ Grasshopper L 1-351.0 1500 1578 19.66% 27.65% 52.70%-0.84 -4.8 17
2005-04-03 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-159.2 1646 1597 48.91% 29.03% 22.06%+0.65 +3.1 37
2005-04-03 @ Thun L 1-259.2 1597 1646 22.06% 29.03% 48.91%-0.65 -3.1 33
2005-04-03 Zurich L 4-574.8 1612 1610 42.53% 30.67% 26.79%+0.35 -4.6 27
2005-04-03 @ St. Gallen W 5-474.8 1610 1612 26.79% 30.67% 42.53%-0.35 +4.6 33
2005-04-06 St. Gallen W 4-050.8 1582 1607 38.77% 31.21% 30.02%+0.18 +15.0 36
2005-04-06 @ Grasshopper L 0-450.8 1607 1582 30.02% 31.21% 38.77%-0.18 -15.0 27
2005-04-06 Young Boys L 0-152.0 1495 1685 19.64% 27.64% 52.72%-0.88 -2.9 17
2005-04-06 @ Schaffhausen W 1-052.0 1685 1495 52.72% 27.64% 19.64%+0.88 +2.9 34
2005-04-06 Zurich L 2-367.9 1573 1615 36.40% 31.39% 32.21%+0.08 -4.3 24
2005-04-06 @ Aarau W 3-267.9 1615 1573 32.21% 31.39% 36.40%-0.08 +4.3 36
2005-04-09 Thun L 1-755.1 1569 1649 31.00% 31.31% 37.69%-0.17 -18.5 24
2005-04-09 @ Aarau W 7-155.1 1649 1569 37.69% 31.31% 31.00%+0.17 +18.5 40
2005-04-10 Basel L 2-564.0 1688 1740 34.97% 31.43% 33.60%+0.01 -9.3 34
2005-04-10 @ Young Boys W 5-264.0 1740 1688 33.60% 31.43% 34.97%-0.01 +9.3 48
2005-04-10 Grasshopper D 1-166.6 1619 1597 45.24% 30.09% 24.67%+0.48 -0.5 37
2005-04-10 @ Zurich D 1-166.6 1597 1619 24.67% 30.09% 45.24%-0.48 +0.5 37
2005-04-13 Schaffhausen L 0-159.6 1594 1492 55.73% 26.34% 17.93%+0.99 -6.6 33
2005-04-13 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 1-059.6 1492 1594 17.93% 26.34% 55.73%-0.99 +6.6 20
2005-04-14 St. Gallen L 0-258.2 1618 1592 45.86% 29.93% 24.21%+0.51 -10.7 37
2005-04-14 @ Zurich W 2-058.2 1592 1618 24.21% 29.93% 45.86%-0.51 +10.7 30
2005-04-14 Thun L 2-468.9 1679 1667 43.89% 30.40% 25.71%+0.42 -8.0 34
2005-04-14 @ Young Boys W 4-268.9 1667 1679 25.71% 30.40% 43.89%-0.42 +8.0 43
2005-04-17 Aarau W 5-046.0 1675 1550 58.62% 24.95% 16.43%+1.14 +10.6 46
2005-04-17 @ Thun L 0-546.0 1550 1675 16.43% 24.95% 58.62%-1.14 -10.6 24
2005-04-17 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-160.8 1499 1587 29.89% 31.20% 38.91%-0.22 +4.8 23
2005-04-17 @ Schaffhausen L 1-260.8 1587 1499 38.91% 31.20% 29.89%+0.22 -4.7 33
2005-04-17 Young Boys D 1-169.8 1749 1671 52.74% 27.63% 19.63%+0.84 -0.9 49
2005-04-17 @ Basel D 1-169.8 1671 1749 19.63% 27.63% 52.74%-0.84 +0.9 35
2005-04-17 Zurich D 1-166.1 1598 1608 40.90% 30.95% 28.15%+0.28 -0.3 38
2005-04-17 @ Grasshopper D 1-166.1 1608 1598 28.15% 30.95% 40.90%-0.28 +0.3 38
2005-04-20 Basel L 0-548.1 1540 1748 18.31% 26.65% 55.03%-0.99 -11.9 24
2005-04-20 @ Aarau W 5-048.1 1748 1540 55.03% 26.65% 18.31%+0.99 +11.9 52
2005-04-20 Grasshopper D 2-268.3 1503 1597 29.20% 31.11% 39.69%-0.26 +0.2 24
2005-04-20 @ Schaffhausen D 2-268.3 1597 1503 39.69% 31.11% 29.20%+0.26 -0.2 39
2005-04-23 Aarau D 1-164.8 1597 1528 51.64% 28.06% 20.30%+0.78 -0.8 40
2005-04-23 @ Grasshopper D 1-164.8 1528 1597 20.30% 28.06% 51.64%-0.78 +0.8 25
2005-04-23 Young Boys D 2-272.3 1603 1672 32.49% 31.40% 36.11%-0.10 +0.1 31
2005-04-23 @ St. Gallen D 2-272.3 1672 1603 36.11% 31.40% 32.49%+0.10 -0.1 36
2005-04-24 Schaffhausen W 4-042.8 1686 1504 65.37% 21.29% 13.34%+1.50 +6.7 49
2005-04-24 @ Thun L 0-442.8 1504 1686 13.34% 21.29% 65.37%-1.50 -6.7 24
2005-04-24 Zurich W 3-261.7 1760 1608 61.89% 23.24% 14.87%+1.31 +1.9 55
2005-04-24 @ Basel L 2-361.7 1608 1760 14.87% 23.24% 61.89%-1.31 -1.9 38
2005-04-27 Aarau D 1-168.1 1672 1529 60.82% 23.81% 15.37%+1.26 -1.2 37
2005-04-27 @ Young Boys D 1-168.1 1529 1672 15.37% 23.81% 60.82%-1.26 +1.2 26
2005-04-27 St. Gallen W 2-160.8 1582 1603 39.39% 31.15% 29.46%+0.21 +3.9 36
2005-04-27 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-260.8 1603 1582 29.46% 31.15% 39.39%-0.21 -3.9 31
2005-04-27 Zurich W 5-152.3 1693 1606 53.81% 27.18% 19.00%+0.89 +8.4 52
2005-04-27 @ Thun L 1-552.3 1606 1693 19.00% 27.18% 53.81%-0.89 -8.4 38
2005-04-30 St. Gallen W 3-158.7 1530 1599 32.44% 31.40% 36.16%-0.10 +7.8 29
2005-04-30 @ Aarau L 1-358.7 1599 1530 36.16% 31.40% 32.44%+0.10 -7.8 31
2005-05-01 Basel L 0-247.8 1497 1762 14.85% 23.21% 61.94%-1.35 -4.0 24
2005-05-01 @ Schaffhausen W 2-047.8 1762 1497 61.94% 23.21% 14.85%+1.35 +4.0 58
2005-05-01 Grasshopper L 2-567.6 1701 1596 56.07% 26.18% 17.75%+1.01 -13.2 52
2005-05-01 @ Thun W 5-267.6 1596 1701 17.75% 26.18% 56.07%-1.01 +13.2 43
2005-05-01 Young Boys L 0-157.9 1586 1671 30.46% 31.26% 38.28%-0.20 -4.2 36
2005-05-01 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 1-057.9 1671 1586 38.28% 31.26% 30.46%+0.20 +4.2 40
2005-05-04 Aarau D 1-160.6 1493 1538 35.95% 31.41% 32.65%+0.06 -0.1 25
2005-05-04 @ Schaffhausen D 1-160.6 1538 1493 32.65% 31.41% 35.95%-0.06 +0.1 30
2005-05-04 Basel L 0-449.4 1582 1766 20.15% 27.97% 51.88%-0.83 -10.7 36
2005-05-04 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 4-049.4 1766 1582 51.88% 27.97% 20.15%+0.83 +10.7 61
2005-05-04 Thun L 1-262.4 1591 1688 28.91% 31.07% 40.02%-0.28 -3.8 31
2005-05-04 @ St. Gallen W 2-162.4 1688 1591 40.02% 31.07% 28.91%+0.28 +3.8 55
2005-05-07 Schaffhausen D 1-163.8 1587 1493 54.84% 26.74% 18.42%+0.94 -1.0 32
2005-05-07 @ St. Gallen D 1-163.8 1493 1587 18.42% 26.74% 54.84%-0.94 +1.0 26
2005-05-07 Thun W 4-155.1 1777 1692 53.65% 27.25% 19.10%+0.88 +6.5 64
2005-05-07 @ Basel L 1-455.1 1692 1777 19.10% 27.25% 53.65%-0.88 -6.5 55
2005-05-08 Zurich D 1-168.3 1675 1598 52.62% 27.68% 19.71%+0.83 -0.9 41
2005-05-08 @ Young Boys D 1-168.3 1598 1675 19.71% 27.68% 52.62%-0.83 +0.9 39
2005-05-11 Aarau D 1-163.9 1571 1538 46.91% 29.64% 23.45%+0.56 -0.6 37
2005-05-11 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-163.9 1538 1571 23.45% 29.64% 46.91%-0.56 +0.6 31
2005-05-11 St. Gallen W 3-152.7 1783 1586 67.01% 20.34% 12.66%+1.60 +2.9 67
2005-05-11 @ Basel L 1-352.7 1586 1783 12.66% 20.34% 67.01%-1.60 -2.8 32
2005-05-11 Young Boys D 1-168.5 1685 1674 43.81% 30.42% 25.77%+0.41 -0.5 56
2005-05-11 @ Thun D 1-168.5 1674 1685 25.77% 30.42% 43.81%-0.41 +0.5 42
2005-05-11 Zurich W 2-161.6 1494 1598 27.92% 30.90% 41.18%-0.33 +5.0 29
2005-05-11 @ Schaffhausen L 1-261.6 1598 1494 41.18% 30.90% 27.92%+0.33 -4.9 39
2005-05-14 Thun D 0-063.2 1571 1685 26.87% 30.69% 42.44%-0.39 +0.4 38
2005-05-14 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 0-063.2 1685 1571 42.44% 30.69% 26.87%+0.39 -0.4 57
2005-05-18 Grasshopper W 3-264.1 1674 1610 51.00% 28.30% 20.69%+0.75 +2.7 45
2005-05-18 @ Young Boys L 2-364.1 1610 1674 20.69% 28.30% 51.00%-0.75 -2.7 43
2005-05-18 Neuchatel Xamax W 5-048.7 1584 1571 43.97% 30.38% 25.65%+0.42 +16.4 35
2005-05-18 @ St. Gallen L 0-548.7 1571 1584 25.65% 30.38% 43.97%-0.42 -16.3 38
2005-05-18 Schaffhausen L 0-156.4 1538 1499 47.67% 29.42% 22.91%+0.59 -5.8 31
2005-05-18 @ Aarau W 1-056.4 1499 1538 22.91% 29.42% 47.67%-0.59 +5.8 32
2005-05-19 Thun W 6-365.2 1594 1684 29.64% 31.17% 39.19%-0.24 +9.4 42
2005-05-19 @ Zurich L 3-665.2 1684 1594 39.19% 31.17% 29.64%+0.24 -9.4 57
2005-05-21 Basel W 4-164.6 1607 1786 20.53% 28.20% 51.27%-0.80 +14.3 46
2005-05-21 @ Grasshopper L 1-464.6 1786 1607 51.27% 28.20% 20.53%+0.80 -14.3 67
2005-05-22 St. Gallen W 3-156.0 1675 1600 52.31% 27.80% 19.89%+0.82 +4.8 60
2005-05-22 @ Thun L 1-356.0 1600 1675 19.89% 27.80% 52.31%-0.82 -4.8 35
2005-05-22 Young Boys D 1-166.5 1532 1677 23.60% 29.71% 46.69%-0.58 +0.6 32
2005-05-22 @ Aarau D 1-166.5 1677 1532 46.69% 29.71% 23.60%+0.58 -0.6 46
2005-05-22 Zurich L 1-262.0 1555 1603 35.47% 31.42% 33.10%+0.03 -4.5 38
2005-05-22 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-162.0 1603 1555 33.10% 31.42% 35.47%-0.03 +4.4 45
2005-05-25 Grasshopper L 1-261.4 1551 1621 32.26% 31.39% 36.35%-0.11 -4.2 38
2005-05-25 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-161.4 1621 1551 36.35% 31.39% 32.26%+0.11 +4.2 49
2005-05-28 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-046.1 1772 1546 70.12% 18.48% 11.40%+1.78 +2.9 70
2005-05-28 @ Basel L 0-246.1 1546 1772 11.40% 18.48% 70.12%-1.78 -2.9 38
2005-05-29 Aarau W 2-048.0 1607 1533 52.25% 27.82% 19.92%+0.82 +5.6 48
2005-05-29 @ Zurich L 0-248.0 1533 1607 19.92% 27.82% 52.25%-0.82 -5.6 32
2005-05-29 Grasshopper D 3-375.5 1595 1625 38.02% 31.28% 30.70%+0.15 -0.1 36
2005-05-29 @ St. Gallen D 3-375.5 1625 1595 30.70% 31.28% 38.02%-0.15 +0.1 50
2005-05-29 Schaffhausen W 4-148.4 1677 1505 64.18% 21.97% 13.85%+1.44 +4.5 49
2005-05-29 @ Young Boys L 1-448.4 1505 1677 13.85% 21.97% 64.18%-1.44 -4.5 32

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-06-01 Vaduz D 1-160.6 1500 1529 38.13% 31.27% 30.60%+0.15 -0.2 1
2005-06-01 @ Schaffhausen D 1-160.6 1529 1500 30.60% 31.27% 38.13%-0.15 +0.2 1
2005-06-12 Schaffhausen L 0-155.8 1530 1500 46.35% 29.80% 23.85%+0.53 -5.7 1
2005-06-12 @ Vaduz W 1-055.8 1500 1530 23.85% 29.80% 46.35%-0.53 +5.7 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-11-14 16.02% @ Schaffhausen 1514 1 Basel 1759 0
2 2005-05-01 17.75% Grasshopper 1596 5 @ Thun 1701 2
3 2005-04-13 17.93% Schaffhausen 1492 1 @ Neuchatel Xamax 1594 0
4 2005-03-20 19.11% St. Gallen 1606 3 @ Young Boys 1691 2
5 2004-09-25 19.25% St. Gallen 1598 1 @ Young Boys 1682 0
6 2004-08-14 20.42% Aarau 1566 3 @ Zurich 1635 1
7 2005-05-21 20.53% @ Grasshopper 1607 4 Basel 1786 1
8 2004-09-25 20.69% @ Aarau 1581 1 Basel 1758 0
9 2004-11-28 20.70% Grasshopper 1563 1 @ Thun 1628 0
10 2004-12-05 21.63% Zurich 1619 4 @ Young Boys 1673 2
11 2005-02-20 22.31% @ St. Gallen 1597 3 Basel 1756 1
12 2005-05-18 22.91% Schaffhausen 1499 1 @ Aarau 1538 0
13 2005-06-12 23.85% Schaffhausen 1500 1 @ Vaduz 1530 0
14 2005-04-14 24.21% St. Gallen 1592 2 @ Zurich 1618 0
15 2004-12-12 24.45% Grasshopper 1567 2 @ Aarau 1591 1
16 2004-11-28 24.47% Neuchatel Xamax 1601 2 @ Zurich 1625 1
17 2004-09-22 24.78% @ Thun 1638 4 Basel 1771 1
18 2004-10-16 24.95% Zurich 1623 1 @ Thun 1642 0
19 2004-10-02 25.34% Servette 1565 2 @ Grasshopper 1580 0
20 2005-04-14 25.71% Thun 1667 4 @ Young Boys 1679 2
21 2004-09-22 25.94% @ Neuchatel Xamax 1569 3 Young Boys 1691 1
22 2005-03-20 26.09% Grasshopper 1573 3 @ Aarau 1581 2
23 2005-03-13 26.33% @ Thun 1632 3 Basel 1751 0
24 2005-04-03 26.79% Zurich 1610 5 @ St. Gallen 1612 4
25 2004-11-28 27.50% @ Servette 1570 2 Young Boys 1678 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-03-13 21.50 Young Boys 5 1667 31.45% @ Zurich 0 1631 37.21% 31.34%
2 2005-04-09 18.54 Thun 7 1649 37.69% @ Aarau 1 1569 31.00% 31.31%
3 2005-05-18 16.35 @ St. Gallen 5 1584 43.97% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1571 25.65% 30.38%
4 2005-04-06 15.00 @ Grasshopper 4 1582 38.77% St. Gallen 0 1607 30.02% 31.21%
5 2004-08-07 14.98 @ Aarau 4 1552 38.80% Servette 0 1576 29.99% 31.21%
6 2005-03-13 14.85 @ Thun 3 1632 26.33% Basel 0 1751 43.11% 30.56%
7 2005-05-21 14.26 @ Grasshopper 4 1607 20.53% Basel 1 1786 51.27% 28.20%
8 2005-05-01 13.19 Grasshopper 5 1596 17.75% @ Thun 2 1701 56.07% 26.18%
9 2004-09-22 12.95 @ Thun 4 1638 24.78% Basel 1 1771 45.10% 30.12%
10 2005-04-20 11.93 Basel 5 1748 55.03% @ Aarau 0 1540 18.31% 26.65%
11 2004-10-31 11.34 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1578 39.31% St. Gallen 0 1599 29.54% 31.15%
12 2005-04-14 10.71 St. Gallen 2 1592 24.21% @ Zurich 0 1618 45.86% 29.93%
13 2005-05-04 10.68 Basel 4 1766 51.88% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1582 20.15% 27.97%
14 2004-12-05 10.63 Servette 4 1575 34.30% @ Schaffhausen 1 1518 34.26% 31.44%
15 2005-04-17 10.58 @ Thun 5 1675 58.62% Aarau 0 1550 16.43% 24.95%
16 2004-10-02 10.45 Servette 2 1565 25.34% @ Grasshopper 0 1580 44.37% 30.29%
17 2004-08-15 10.25 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1571 43.59% Servette 0 1561 25.95% 30.46%
18 2004-09-12 10.12 @ Basel 8 1761 63.18% Grasshopper 1 1597 14.29% 22.53%
19 2004-09-11 10.11 @ Aarau 4 1570 36.75% St. Gallen 1 1609 31.88% 31.37%
20 2004-08-14 10.10 Aarau 3 1566 20.42% @ Zurich 1 1635 51.45% 28.13%
21 2004-07-17 10.05 @ Basel 6 1745 64.61% Aarau 0 1570 13.67% 21.72%
22 2004-07-20 9.98 @ Thun 3 1607 44.67% Servette 0 1589 25.10% 30.22%
23 2004-12-05 9.70 Thun 2 1622 28.83% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1606 40.12% 31.06%
24 2005-02-20 9.67 @ St. Gallen 3 1597 22.31% Basel 1 1756 48.54% 29.15%
25 2005-05-19 9.37 @ Zurich 6 1594 29.64% Thun 3 1684 39.19% 31.17%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-12-11 79.6 @ Basel 3 1757 58.63% Thun 3 1632 16.43% 24.94%
2 2004-07-17 76.8 @ St. Gallen 3 1618 33.17% Young Boys 3 1682 35.41% 31.42%
3 2005-05-29 75.5 @ St. Gallen 3 1595 38.02% Grasshopper 3 1625 30.70% 31.28%
4 2005-04-03 74.8 Zurich 5 1610 26.79% @ St. Gallen 4 1612 42.53% 30.67%
5 2005-03-20 73.8 St. Gallen 3 1606 19.11% @ Young Boys 2 1691 53.62% 27.26%
6 2005-03-20 73.5 @ Zurich 2 1610 25.34% Basel 2 1737 44.36% 30.30%
7 2005-04-23 72.3 @ St. Gallen 2 1603 32.49% Young Boys 2 1672 36.11% 31.40%
8 2004-08-28 71.8 @ Schaffhausen 3 1518 34.80% Aarau 3 1570 33.76% 31.43%
9 2004-08-20 71.4 @ Basel 1 1759 71.96% Schaffhausen 1 1516 10.68% 17.36%
10 2004-07-23 71.0 @ Basel 1 1755 65.61% Neuchatel Xamax 1 1571 13.24% 21.15%
11 2004-07-23 70.3 @ Servette 2 1579 40.86% Grasshopper 2 1589 28.19% 30.95%
12 2004-10-17 70.0 @ St. Gallen 2 1600 52.91% Schaffhausen 2 1520 19.53% 27.56%
13 2005-04-17 69.8 @ Basel 1 1749 52.74% Young Boys 1 1671 19.63% 27.63%
14 2004-12-05 69.6 Zurich 4 1619 21.63% @ Young Boys 2 1673 49.55% 28.82%
15 2004-09-11 68.9 Young Boys 3 1687 35.76% @ Zurich 2 1620 32.83% 31.41%
16 2005-04-14 68.9 Thun 4 1667 25.71% @ Young Boys 2 1679 43.89% 30.40%
17 2004-08-15 68.8 @ Young Boys 1 1682 31.41% Basel 1 1759 37.25% 31.34%
18 2004-08-29 68.8 @ Young Boys 1 1688 59.50% Servette 1 1555 16.00% 24.50%
19 2005-03-20 68.8 Grasshopper 3 1573 26.09% @ Aarau 2 1581 43.41% 30.50%
20 2004-08-25 68.7 @ Young Boys 1 1689 54.51% Grasshopper 1 1597 18.61% 26.88%
21 2005-05-11 68.5 @ Thun 1 1685 43.81% Young Boys 1 1674 25.77% 30.42%
22 2004-11-14 68.4 @ Young Boys 1 1679 54.07% Aarau 1 1590 18.85% 27.07%
23 2005-04-20 68.3 @ Schaffhausen 2 1503 29.20% Grasshopper 2 1597 39.69% 31.11%
24 2005-05-08 68.3 @ Young Boys 1 1675 52.62% Zurich 1 1598 19.71% 27.68%
25 2005-04-27 68.1 @ Young Boys 1 1672 60.82% Aarau 1 1529 15.37% 23.81%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-04-24 42.8 @ Thun 4 1686 65.37% Schaffhausen 0 1504 13.34% 21.29%
2 2005-04-17 46.0 @ Thun 5 1675 58.62% Aarau 0 1550 16.43% 24.95%
3 2005-05-28 46.1 @ Basel 2 1772 70.12% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1546 11.40% 18.48%
4 2005-02-20 46.2 @ Zurich 2 1627 57.78% Schaffhausen 0 1509 16.85% 25.37%
5 2004-07-17 46.3 @ Basel 6 1745 64.61% Aarau 0 1570 13.67% 21.72%
6 2004-07-23 47.6 @ Young Boys 6 1682 62.38% Schaffhausen 1 1526 14.65% 22.97%
7 2005-05-01 47.8 Basel 2 1762 61.94% @ Schaffhausen 0 1497 14.85% 23.21%
8 2005-05-29 48.0 @ Zurich 2 1607 52.25% Aarau 0 1533 19.92% 27.82%
9 2005-04-20 48.1 Basel 5 1748 55.03% @ Aarau 0 1540 18.31% 26.65%
10 2004-08-15 48.4 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1571 43.59% Servette 0 1561 25.95% 30.46%
11 2005-05-29 48.4 @ Young Boys 4 1677 64.18% Schaffhausen 1 1505 13.85% 21.97%
12 2004-09-11 48.6 @ Thun 3 1629 49.29% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1577 21.80% 28.91%
13 2005-05-18 48.7 @ St. Gallen 5 1584 43.97% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1571 25.65% 30.38%
14 2004-08-07 49.1 @ Aarau 4 1552 38.80% Servette 0 1576 29.99% 31.21%
15 2004-09-12 49.4 @ Basel 8 1761 63.18% Grasshopper 1 1597 14.29% 22.53%
16 2005-05-04 49.4 Basel 4 1766 51.88% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1582 20.15% 27.97%
17 2004-07-20 49.7 @ Thun 3 1607 44.67% Servette 0 1589 25.10% 30.22%
18 2004-08-08 50.5 @ Grasshopper 1 1590 51.27% Schaffhausen 0 1523 20.53% 28.20%
19 2004-09-25 50.6 @ Neuchatel Xamax 1 1577 49.66% Schaffhausen 0 1523 21.56% 28.78%
20 2004-11-14 50.6 @ Neuchatel Xamax 2 1594 45.63% Grasshopper 0 1570 24.38% 29.99%
21 2005-03-06 50.7 @ Basel 4 1746 64.41% Grasshopper 1 1572 13.75% 21.84%
22 2005-04-06 50.8 @ Grasshopper 4 1582 38.77% St. Gallen 0 1607 30.02% 31.21%
23 2004-10-31 50.9 @ Neuchatel Xamax 3 1578 39.31% St. Gallen 0 1599 29.54% 31.15%
24 2005-04-02 51.0 @ Grasshopper 3 1578 52.70% Schaffhausen 1 1500 19.66% 27.65%
25 2004-09-26 51.5 @ Zurich 2 1611 45.61% Grasshopper 0 1587 24.39% 29.99%