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2011-12 Super League Season

164 games

Final

Champion

Basel

63 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sion

40.05 points above expected

56 points · 15.95 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zurich

10.50 points below expected

36 points · 46.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Basel 30 18 9 3 63 62 29 +33 56.55 +6.45
2 Sion 33 16 8 9 56 45 33 +12 15.95 +40.05
3 Luzern 30 14 8 8 50 39 26 +13 44.12 +5.88
4 Servette 32 15 4 13 49 43 44 -1 43.77 +5.23
5 Neuchatel Xamax 36 12 12 12 48 45 53 -8 39.82 +8.18
6 Thun 35 12 10 13 46 41 42 -1 47.42 -1.42
7 Young Boys 31 11 11 9 44 49 34 +15 50.01 -6.01
8 Zurich 30 10 6 14 36 45 42 +3 46.50 -10.50
9 Lausanne-Sport 34 7 7 20 28 27 61 -34 32.39 -4.39
10 Grasshopper 33 7 5 21 26 29 61 -32 33.55 -7.55
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sion 2 1 0 1 3 2 1 +1 — —
2 Aarau 2 1 0 1 3 1 2 -1 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sion 56 15.95 +40.05
2 Neuchatel Xamax 48 39.82 +8.18
3 Basel 63 56.55 +6.45
4 Luzern 50 44.12 +5.88
5 Servette 49 43.77 +5.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zurich 36 46.50 -10.50
2 Grasshopper 26 33.55 -7.55
3 Young Boys 44 50.01 -6.01
4 Lausanne-Sport 28 32.39 -4.39
5 Thun 46 47.42 -1.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Luzern 5 Aug 20 – Sep 25 1 in 119
2 Neuchatel Xamax 3 Sep 25 – Oct 22 1 in 58
3 Basel 7 Oct 1 – Dec 3 1 in 55
4 Lausanne-Sport 2 Apr 9 – Apr 14 1 in 31
5 Grasshopper 2 Oct 2 – Oct 23 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thun 4 Oct 1 – Oct 29 1 in 61
2 Zurich 3 Jul 16 – Jul 30 1 in 45
3 Grasshopper 4 Aug 27 – Sep 25 1 in 31
4 Lausanne-Sport 5 Oct 27 – Dec 3 1 in 15
5 Luzern 2 Oct 2 – Oct 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Basel 23 Aug 28 – May 6 1 in 165
2 Luzern 10 Jul 17 – Sep 25 1 in 102
3 Neuchatel Xamax 5 Aug 7 – Sep 11 1 in 39
4 Lausanne-Sport 5 Dec 11 – Mar 4 1 in 37
5 Servette 6 Apr 28 – May 23 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thun 8 Aug 28 – Oct 29 1 in 35
2 Luzern 6 Dec 3 – Mar 17 1 in 24
3 Lausanne-Sport 9 Aug 3 – Oct 2 1 in 18
4 Zurich 5 Sep 10 – Oct 23 1 in 15
5 Basel 4 Jul 30 – Aug 20 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Basel 1864 63 +12 10 10.6 -0.6
Sion 1701 59 -34 6 8.6 -2.6
Luzern 1704 50 +28 12 8.4 +3.6
Servette 1678 49 +52 13 6.6 +6.4
Neuchatel Xamax 1603 48 -15 4 5.9 -1.9
Thun 1642 46 -5 5 5.6 -0.6
Young Boys 1735 44 +36 8 8.0 -0.0
Zurich 1699 36 -10 7 7.7 -0.7
Lausanne-Sport 1545 28 +9 7 5.3 +1.7
Grasshopper 1510 26 -28 2 4.4 -2.4
Aarau 1595 3 +1 3 1.9 +1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAS GRA LAU LUZ NX SER SIO THU YB ZUR
Basel —
2-1-0
6.21
4-0-0
9.06
1-0-1
3.48
1-3-0
8.27
2-0-1
5.34
1-2-0
5.33
3-1-0
7.38
1-2-0
4.90
3-0-1
7.06
Grasshopper
0-1-2
2.13
—
1-1-2
5.75
0-0-3
2.69
0-1-3
4.83
1-0-3
4.44
1-0-3
3.17
1-1-2
4.49
2-1-1
3.30
1-0-2
2.62
Lausanne-Sport
0-0-4
2.14
2-1-1
5.21
—
0-1-3
3.77
0-2-2
4.58
0-2-1
3.01
1-0-3
3.30
2-0-2
3.91
1-1-2
3.10
1-0-2
2.60
Luzern
1-0-1
2.02
3-0-0
5.58
3-1-0
7.26
—
2-0-2
6.67
2-0-2
6.34
2-2-0
5.16
0-2-2
6.28
0-1-1
2.56
1-2-0
3.80
Neuchatel Xamax
0-3-1
2.82
3-1-0
6.14
2-2-0
6.40
2-0-2
4.31
—
1-1-2
4.59
0-1-3
4.00
1-2-1
4.41
1-1-2
4.02
2-1-1
4.04
Servette
1-0-2
2.93
3-0-1
6.54
1-2-0
5.23
2-0-2
4.63
2-1-1
6.38
—
2-0-1
3.24
0-0-4
5.66
2-1-1
4.22
2-0-1
3.30
Sion
0-2-1
2.92
3-0-1
7.89
3-0-1
7.76
0-2-2
5.80
3-1-0
7.00
1-0-2
4.99
—
3-1-0
6.25
0-1-2
3.96
3-1-0
5.43
Thun
0-1-3
3.65
2-1-1
6.48
2-0-2
7.09
2-2-0
4.69
1-2-1
6.58
4-0-0
5.30
0-1-3
4.74
—
1-2-1
4.61
0-1-2
3.85
Young Boys
0-2-1
3.34
1-1-2
7.75
2-1-1
7.97
1-1-0
2.92
2-1-1
6.99
1-1-2
6.76
2-1-0
4.25
1-2-1
6.36
—
1-1-1
3.94
Zurich
1-0-3
3.94
2-0-1
5.64
2-0-1
5.68
0-2-1
4.42
1-1-2
6.98
1-0-2
4.94
0-1-3
5.52
2-1-0
4.37
1-1-1
4.28
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +9.8
Allowed 0.63 -7.4
Differential 0.76 +4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.54%9.76%7.32%3.66%1.22%0.91%31.40%
19.76%9.76%5.79%3.96%1.52%0.30%31.10%
27.32%5.79%5.49%1.83%0.61%0.30%21.34%
33.66%3.96%1.83%0.61%0.30%0.30%10.67%
41.22%1.52%0.61%0.30%——3.66%
5+0.91%0.30%0.30%0.30%——1.83%
Total31.40%31.10%21.34%10.67%3.66%1.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.85
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 164

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%—————3.33%
116.67%13.33%6.67%3.33%——40.00%
210.00%6.67%10.00%———26.67%
33.33%3.33%6.67%3.33%——16.67%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+3.33%3.33%————6.67%
Total40.00%30.00%23.33%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.97 +1.10
SD 1.36 0.96 1.67
CV 0.66 1.00 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%12.12%15.15%9.09%—3.03%45.45%
16.06%3.03%9.09%6.06%6.06%—30.30%
26.06%3.03%6.06%3.03%——18.18%
33.03%—————3.03%
4———3.03%——3.03%
5+———————
Total21.21%18.18%30.30%21.21%6.06%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.85 -0.97
SD 1.02 1.42 1.83
CV 1.16 0.77 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.71%11.76%17.65%2.94%—2.94%50.00%
18.82%2.94%—5.88%5.88%—23.53%
2—8.82%2.94%5.88%2.94%2.94%23.53%
3—2.94%————2.94%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.53%26.47%20.59%14.71%8.82%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.79 -1.00
SD 0.91 1.57 1.65
CV 1.15 0.88 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%————23.33%
113.33%13.33%10.00%6.67%——43.33%
210.00%3.33%————13.33%
33.33%13.33%3.33%———20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%40.00%13.33%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 0.87 +0.43
SD 1.06 0.90 1.33
CV 0.81 1.04 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%8.33%8.33%—2.78%30.56%
111.11%13.89%5.56%—2.78%—33.33%
25.56%2.78%11.11%———19.44%
3—11.11%———2.78%13.89%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%30.56%25.00%8.33%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.47 -0.22
SD 1.13 1.44 1.91
CV 0.90 0.98 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%—37.50%
19.38%3.12%3.12%6.25%——21.88%
2—18.75%————18.75%
33.12%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—12.50%
43.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
5+———————
Total25.00%37.50%18.75%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.38 -0.03
SD 1.36 1.18 1.89
CV 1.01 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.71%11.43%2.86%2.86%2.86%—25.71%
114.29%14.29%5.71%2.86%——37.14%
220.00%2.86%————22.86%
35.71%—2.86%2.86%——11.43%
4———————
5+———2.86%——2.86%
Total45.71%28.57%11.43%11.43%2.86%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 0.97 +0.37
SD 1.26 1.15 1.68
CV 0.94 1.18 —
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.43%11.43%5.71%2.86%5.71%—37.14%
18.57%11.43%5.71%———25.71%
211.43%2.86%5.71%2.86%2.86%—25.71%
35.71%2.86%————8.57%
4———————
5+——2.86%———2.86%
Total37.14%28.57%20.00%5.71%8.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.20 -0.03
SD 1.20 1.26 1.81
CV 1.02 1.05 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%12.90%6.45%———25.81%
13.23%16.13%3.23%3.23%——25.81%
2—6.45%12.90%3.23%——22.58%
312.90%3.23%————16.13%
43.23%6.45%————9.68%
5+———————
Total25.81%45.16%22.58%6.45%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.10 +0.48
SD 1.31 0.87 1.71
CV 0.83 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%16.67%3.33%3.33%——30.00%
13.33%6.67%10.00%6.67%—3.33%30.00%
210.00%3.33%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
5+6.67%—————6.67%
Total26.67%30.00%26.67%13.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.40 +0.10
SD 1.57 1.22 2.16
CV 1.05 0.87 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Basel 1864 63 56.55 +6.45 86.0% 33 45 52 57 61 67 74
Young Boys 1735 44 50.01 -6.01 22.0% 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Luzern 1704 50 44.12 +5.88 82.0% 28 31 39 43 49 57 66
Sion 1701 56 15.95 +40.05 73.0% -3 2 12 16 22 27 38
Zurich 1699 36 46.50 -10.50 10.0% 22 34 42 47 52 57 67
Servette 1678 49 43.77 +5.23 81.0% 30 33 39 43 48 55 59
Thun 1642 46 47.42 -1.42 47.0% 27 33 43 47 53 59 69
Neuchatel Xamax 1603 48 39.82 +8.18 84.0% 23 26 34 39 45 54 59
Lausanne-Sport 1545 28 32.39 -4.39 30.0% 19 22 27 32 37 43 48
Grasshopper 1510 26 33.55 -7.55 14.0% 18 22 29 33 38 45 47

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 15% * Slight Edge: 15% to 22.5% * Clear Edge: 22.5% to 26.5% * Strong Edge: 26.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.20%
No Edge
43.90%24.39%31.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 42.58 Elo pts.
201 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Basel, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.77 * Some Luck: 5.77 to 8.66 * Lucky: 8.66 to 11.54 * Wild Swing: 11.54 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.08 * Close: 1.08 to 1.62 * Off: 1.62 to 2.16 * Way Off: 2.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.41 points
Some Luck
07.2218
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.80
Way Off
01.354
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
86.00%
Basel
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
10.00%
Zurich
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 76% * Wide Edge: 76% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 94.5% * Dominant: 94.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 55.5% * Frequent: 55.5% to 59.5% * Very Frequent: 59.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18% * Occasional: 18% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 100.81
1.56
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.75
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%63%71%76%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Clear Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17.5% * As Expected: 17.5% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 22.5% * Very Shaky: 22.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.80
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.24
Weak Carryover
00.420.631
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.71
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.120
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Basel56.00%21.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%——
Sion——————1.00%3.00%6.00%90.00%
Luzern5.00%7.00%12.00%23.00%11.00%20.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%—
Servette3.00%7.00%11.00%16.00%19.00%16.00%18.00%6.00%4.00%—
Neuchatel Xamax6.00%2.00%11.00%4.00%14.00%13.00%16.00%19.00%14.00%1.00%
Thun13.00%20.00%6.00%18.00%18.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%—
Young Boys11.00%28.00%27.00%14.00%10.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%——
Zurich6.00%14.00%21.00%17.00%14.00%16.00%5.00%2.00%5.00%—
Lausanne-Sport—1.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%7.00%16.00%29.00%37.00%5.00%
Grasshopper——1.00%—8.00%9.00%22.00%28.00%28.00%4.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
Basel 100% — —
Young Boys 100% — —
Thun 98.00% 2.00% —
Luzern 96.00% 4.00% —
Servette 96.00% 4.00% —
Zurich 95.00% 5.00% —
Neuchatel Xamax 85.00% 14.00% 1.00%
Grasshopper 68.00% 28.00% 4.00%
Lausanne-Sport 58.00% 37.00% 5.00%
Sion — 100% —

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Won relegation playoff Lost relegation playoff
Sion 67.17% 32.83%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-07-16 Basel D 1-172.5 1702 1751 35.71% 26.19% 38.10%-0.03 +0.1 1
2011-07-16 @ Young Boys D 1-172.5 1751 1702 38.10% 26.19% 35.71%+0.03 -0.1 1
2011-07-16 Zurich W 1-062.3 1672 1743 32.80% 26.11% 41.09%-0.14 +9.9 3
2011-07-16 @ Sion L 0-162.3 1743 1672 41.09% 26.11% 32.80%+0.14 -9.9 0
2011-07-17 Luzern L 0-352.3 1577 1634 34.57% 26.17% 39.26%-0.08 -23.8 0
2011-07-17 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 3-052.3 1634 1577 39.26% 26.17% 34.57%+0.08 +23.8 3
2011-07-17 Thun L 1-268.0 1667 1655 44.33% 25.93% 29.74%+0.27 -9.9 0
2011-07-17 @ Servette W 2-168.0 1655 1667 29.74% 25.93% 44.33%-0.27 +9.9 3
2011-07-20 Lausanne-Sport W 2-054.8 1638 1643 42.05% 26.07% 31.88%+0.19 +15.4 3
2011-07-20 @ Grasshopper L 0-254.8 1643 1638 31.88% 26.07% 42.05%-0.19 -15.4 0
2011-07-23 Servette L 2-375.7 1733 1657 52.46% 24.95% 22.59%+0.59 -10.8 0
2011-07-23 @ Zurich W 3-275.7 1657 1733 22.59% 24.95% 52.46%-0.59 +10.8 3
2011-07-23 Young Boys L 1-267.3 1682 1702 39.99% 26.15% 33.86%+0.11 -9.1 3
2011-07-23 @ Sion W 2-167.3 1702 1682 33.86% 26.15% 39.99%-0.11 +9.1 4
2011-07-24 Grasshopper W 3-052.5 1665 1654 44.25% 25.94% 29.81%+0.27 +21.2 6
2011-07-24 @ Thun L 0-352.5 1654 1665 29.81% 25.94% 44.25%-0.27 -21.2 3
2011-07-24 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-048.1 1751 1553 65.28% 21.49% 13.23%+1.20 +6.9 4
2011-07-24 @ Basel L 0-248.1 1553 1751 13.23% 21.49% 65.28%-1.20 -6.9 0
2011-07-30 Basel D 2-278.0 1632 1758 26.04% 25.54% 48.43%-0.41 +0.8 4
2011-07-30 @ Grasshopper D 2-278.0 1758 1632 48.43% 25.54% 26.04%+0.41 -0.8 5
2011-07-30 Zurich W 2-168.3 1627 1722 29.68% 25.93% 44.40%-0.26 +9.9 3
2011-07-30 @ Lausanne-Sport L 1-268.3 1722 1627 44.40% 25.93% 29.68%+0.26 -9.9 0
2011-07-31 Servette D 1-172.2 1711 1668 48.38% 25.54% 26.08%+0.42 -1.1 5
2011-07-31 @ Young Boys D 1-172.2 1668 1711 26.08% 25.54% 48.38%-0.42 +1.1 4
2011-07-31 Sion L 0-349.6 1546 1673 25.88% 25.52% 48.60%-0.42 -18.9 0
2011-07-31 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 3-049.6 1673 1546 48.60% 25.52% 25.88%+0.42 +18.9 6
2011-07-31 Thun D 0-067.0 1658 1686 38.80% 26.18% 35.02%+0.07 -0.2 4
2011-07-31 @ Luzern D 0-067.0 1686 1658 35.02% 26.18% 38.80%-0.07 +0.2 7
2011-08-03 Luzern L 0-160.8 1637 1658 39.84% 26.15% 34.01%+0.11 -9.7 3
2011-08-03 @ Lausanne-Sport W 1-060.8 1658 1637 34.01% 26.15% 39.84%-0.11 +9.7 7
2011-08-06 Lausanne-Sport W 4-262.6 1669 1628 48.18% 25.57% 26.25%+0.42 +10.2 7
2011-08-06 @ Servette L 2-462.6 1628 1669 26.25% 25.57% 48.18%-0.42 -10.2 3
2011-08-06 Sion D 3-382.2 1757 1692 51.15% 25.16% 23.69%+0.54 -0.9 6
2011-08-06 @ Basel D 3-382.2 1692 1757 23.69% 25.16% 51.15%-0.54 +0.9 7
2011-08-07 Grasshopper W 6-051.0 1712 1633 52.85% 24.88% 22.27%+0.61 +31.8 3
2011-08-07 @ Zurich L 0-651.0 1633 1712 22.27% 24.88% 52.85%-0.61 -31.8 4
2011-08-07 Neuchatel Xamax D 0-066.1 1686 1527 61.55% 22.77% 15.68%+1.00 -2.7 8
2011-08-07 @ Thun D 0-066.1 1527 1686 15.68% 22.77% 61.55%-1.00 +2.7 1
2011-08-07 Young Boys D 1-172.0 1668 1710 36.77% 26.19% 37.03%+0.00 +0.0 8
2011-08-07 @ Luzern D 1-172.0 1710 1668 37.03% 26.19% 36.77%+0.00 -0.0 6
2011-08-13 Luzern D 1-172.0 1693 1668 46.09% 25.79% 28.13%+0.34 -0.9 8
2011-08-13 @ Sion D 1-172.0 1668 1693 28.13% 25.79% 46.09%-0.34 +0.9 9
2011-08-13 Zurich L 1-269.2 1756 1744 44.33% 25.93% 29.74%+0.27 -9.9 6
2011-08-13 @ Basel W 2-169.2 1744 1756 29.74% 25.93% 44.33%-0.27 +9.9 6
2011-08-14 Lausanne-Sport W 5-257.7 1684 1618 51.26% 25.15% 23.59%+0.54 +12.8 11
2011-08-14 @ Thun L 2-557.7 1618 1684 23.59% 25.15% 51.26%-0.54 -12.8 3
2011-08-14 Servette D 0-065.3 1530 1679 23.49% 25.13% 51.38%-0.53 +1.6 2
2011-08-14 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 0-065.3 1679 1530 51.38% 25.13% 23.49%+0.53 -1.6 8
2011-08-14 Young Boys L 0-351.8 1601 1710 28.03% 25.78% 46.19%-0.33 -20.2 4
2011-08-14 @ Grasshopper W 3-051.8 1710 1601 46.19% 25.78% 28.03%+0.33 +20.2 9
2011-08-20 Basel W 3-164.8 1669 1746 31.86% 26.07% 42.07%-0.18 +16.4 12
2011-08-20 @ Luzern L 1-364.8 1746 1669 42.07% 26.07% 31.86%+0.18 -16.4 6
2011-08-20 Grasshopper L 3-477.4 1678 1581 54.86% 24.49% 20.65%+0.69 -11.0 8
2011-08-20 @ Servette W 4-377.4 1581 1678 20.65% 24.49% 54.86%-0.69 +10.9 7
2011-08-20 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-263.9 1754 1531 67.50% 20.62% 11.89%+1.32 -28.2 6
2011-08-20 @ Zurich W 2-063.9 1531 1754 11.89% 20.62% 67.50%-1.32 +28.2 5
2011-08-21 Sion L 0-254.6 1605 1692 30.64% 26.00% 43.36%-0.22 -14.9 3
2011-08-21 @ Lausanne-Sport W 2-054.6 1692 1605 43.36% 26.00% 30.64%+0.22 +14.9 11
2011-08-21 Thun L 0-260.6 1730 1696 47.18% 25.68% 27.14%+0.38 -20.8 9
2011-08-21 @ Young Boys W 2-060.6 1696 1730 27.14% 25.68% 47.18%-0.38 +20.8 14
2011-08-27 Lausanne-Sport D 2-273.9 1560 1590 38.48% 26.18% 35.34%+0.06 -0.1 6
2011-08-27 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 2-273.9 1590 1560 35.34% 26.18% 38.48%-0.06 +0.1 4
2011-08-27 Luzern L 0-157.5 1592 1685 29.93% 25.95% 44.13%-0.25 -7.8 7
2011-08-27 @ Grasshopper W 1-057.5 1685 1592 44.13% 25.95% 29.93%+0.25 +7.8 15
2011-08-28 Servette L 0-458.0 1707 1667 48.03% 25.58% 26.39%+0.41 -40.1 11
2011-08-28 @ Sion W 4-058.0 1667 1707 26.39% 25.58% 48.03%-0.41 +40.1 11
2011-08-28 Thun W 2-164.6 1730 1717 44.43% 25.92% 29.65%+0.27 +7.3 9
2011-08-28 @ Basel L 1-264.6 1717 1730 29.65% 25.92% 44.43%-0.27 -7.3 14
2011-08-28 Zurich L 2-372.7 1709 1726 40.36% 26.14% 33.50%+0.13 -8.7 9
2011-08-28 @ Young Boys W 3-272.7 1726 1709 33.50% 26.14% 40.36%-0.13 +8.7 9
2011-09-10 Basel L 0-455.7 1707 1737 38.45% 26.18% 35.36%+0.06 -33.6 11
2011-09-10 @ Servette W 4-055.7 1737 1707 35.36% 26.18% 38.45%-0.06 +33.6 12
2011-09-10 Zurich W 3-163.4 1693 1735 36.80% 26.19% 37.01%+0.00 +14.9 18
2011-09-10 @ Luzern L 1-363.4 1735 1693 37.01% 26.19% 36.80%+0.00 -14.9 9
2011-09-11 Grasshopper W 2-052.7 1560 1584 39.24% 26.17% 34.59%+0.09 +16.4 9
2011-09-11 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-252.7 1584 1560 34.59% 26.17% 39.24%-0.09 -16.4 7
2011-09-11 Sion L 0-358.5 1710 1667 48.41% 25.54% 26.05%+0.43 -30.9 14
2011-09-11 @ Thun W 3-058.5 1667 1710 26.05% 25.54% 48.41%-0.43 +30.9 14
2011-09-11 Young Boys L 0-351.5 1590 1700 27.79% 25.75% 46.46%-0.34 -20.0 4
2011-09-11 @ Lausanne-Sport W 3-051.5 1700 1590 46.46% 25.75% 27.79%+0.34 +20.0 12
2011-09-21 Lausanne-Sport W 6-047.2 1771 1570 65.54% 21.39% 13.07%+1.21 +19.0 15
2011-09-21 @ Basel L 0-647.2 1570 1771 13.07% 21.39% 65.54%-1.21 -19.0 4
2011-09-21 Neuchatel Xamax W 4-152.4 1720 1576 60.06% 23.21% 16.73%+0.93 +10.8 15
2011-09-21 @ Young Boys L 1-452.4 1576 1720 16.73% 23.21% 60.06%-0.93 -10.8 9
2011-09-21 Thun D 0-067.7 1720 1679 48.10% 25.58% 26.32%+0.41 -1.2 10
2011-09-21 @ Zurich D 0-067.7 1679 1720 26.32% 25.58% 48.10%-0.41 +1.2 15
2011-09-22 Grasshopper W 2-049.6 1698 1568 58.51% 23.64% 17.85%+0.86 +9.3 17
2011-09-22 @ Sion L 0-249.6 1568 1698 17.85% 23.64% 58.51%-0.86 -9.4 7
2011-09-22 Luzern L 0-257.7 1673 1708 37.87% 26.19% 35.94%+0.04 -17.5 11
2011-09-22 @ Servette W 2-057.7 1708 1673 35.94% 26.19% 37.87%-0.04 +17.5 21
2011-09-24 Basel D 1-172.7 1680 1790 27.89% 25.76% 46.34%-0.33 +0.9 16
2011-09-24 @ Thun D 1-172.7 1790 1680 46.34% 25.76% 27.89%+0.33 -0.9 16
2011-09-24 Young Boys L 1-268.0 1719 1731 40.95% 26.12% 32.93%+0.15 -9.3 10
2011-09-24 @ Zurich W 2-168.0 1731 1719 32.93% 26.12% 40.95%-0.15 +9.3 18
2011-09-25 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-157.7 1559 1565 41.80% 26.08% 32.12%+0.18 -10.0 7
2011-09-25 @ Grasshopper W 1-057.7 1565 1559 32.12% 26.08% 41.80%-0.18 +10.0 12
2011-09-25 Servette D 0-065.0 1551 1656 28.46% 25.82% 45.72%-0.31 +1.0 5
2011-09-25 @ Lausanne-Sport D 0-065.0 1656 1551 45.72% 25.82% 28.46%+0.31 -1.0 12
2011-09-25 Sion W 2-055.3 1725 1707 45.15% 25.87% 28.98%+0.30 +14.3 24
2011-09-25 @ Luzern L 0-255.3 1707 1725 28.98% 25.87% 45.15%-0.30 -14.3 17
2011-10-01 Servette W 3-049.1 1789 1655 58.98% 23.51% 17.51%+0.88 +13.3 19
2011-10-01 @ Basel L 0-349.1 1655 1789 17.51% 23.51% 58.98%-0.88 -13.3 12
2011-10-01 Thun W 4-056.0 1575 1681 28.32% 25.81% 45.88%-0.32 +38.6 15
2011-10-01 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 0-456.0 1681 1575 45.88% 25.81% 28.32%+0.32 -38.6 16
2011-10-02 Lausanne-Sport W 1-052.3 1693 1552 59.69% 23.32% 17.00%+0.91 +4.7 20
2011-10-02 @ Sion L 0-152.3 1552 1693 17.00% 23.32% 59.69%-0.91 -4.7 5
2011-10-02 Luzern W 1-059.6 1740 1739 42.84% 26.03% 31.13%+0.22 +8.0 21
2011-10-02 @ Young Boys L 0-159.6 1739 1740 31.13% 26.03% 42.84%-0.22 -8.0 24
2011-10-02 Zurich W 3-058.2 1549 1709 22.37% 24.90% 52.73%-0.59 +33.2 10
2011-10-02 @ Grasshopper L 0-358.2 1709 1549 52.73% 24.90% 22.37%+0.59 -33.2 10
2011-10-22 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-271.5 1731 1614 57.21% 23.97% 18.82%+0.80 -12.3 24
2011-10-22 @ Luzern W 2-171.5 1614 1731 18.82% 23.97% 57.21%-0.80 +12.3 18
2011-10-22 Thun W 1-060.2 1547 1643 29.61% 25.92% 44.47%-0.26 +10.5 8
2011-10-22 @ Lausanne-Sport L 0-160.2 1643 1547 44.47% 25.92% 29.61%+0.26 -10.5 16
2011-10-23 Basel L 0-157.9 1676 1802 25.98% 25.53% 48.49%-0.42 -6.9 10
2011-10-23 @ Zurich W 1-057.9 1802 1676 48.49% 25.53% 25.98%+0.42 +6.9 22
2011-10-23 Grasshopper L 0-166.9 1748 1582 62.29% 22.53% 15.18%+1.04 -14.0 21
2011-10-23 @ Young Boys W 1-066.9 1582 1748 15.18% 22.53% 62.29%-1.04 +14.0 13
2011-10-23 Sion L 0-256.4 1641 1697 34.80% 26.17% 39.03%-0.07 -16.4 12
2011-10-23 @ Servette W 2-056.4 1697 1641 39.03% 26.17% 34.80%+0.07 +16.5 23
2011-10-26 Basel L 0-159.3 1714 1809 29.64% 25.92% 44.44%-0.26 -7.7 23
2011-10-26 @ Sion W 1-059.3 1809 1714 44.44% 25.92% 29.64%+0.26 +7.7 25
2011-10-26 Servette L 1-458.6 1596 1625 38.62% 26.18% 35.20%+0.07 -21.8 13
2011-10-26 @ Grasshopper W 4-158.6 1625 1596 35.20% 26.18% 38.62%-0.07 +21.8 15
2011-10-26 Zurich L 0-256.8 1632 1669 37.49% 26.19% 36.31%+0.03 -17.4 16
2011-10-26 @ Thun W 2-056.8 1669 1632 36.31% 26.19% 37.49%-0.03 +17.4 13
2011-10-27 Lausanne-Sport W 2-048.8 1719 1558 61.78% 22.69% 15.53%+1.01 +8.1 27
2011-10-27 @ Luzern L 0-248.8 1558 1719 15.53% 22.69% 61.78%-1.01 -8.2 8
2011-10-27 Young Boys D 0-067.3 1626 1734 28.02% 25.78% 46.20%-0.33 +1.0 19
2011-10-27 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 0-067.3 1734 1626 46.20% 25.78% 28.02%+0.33 -1.0 22
2011-10-29 Grasshopper W 4-150.6 1817 1574 69.23% 19.88% 10.89%+1.42 +6.9 28
2011-10-29 @ Basel L 1-450.6 1574 1817 10.89% 19.88% 69.23%-1.42 -6.9 13
2011-10-29 Thun W 2-051.6 1706 1615 54.29% 24.61% 21.10%+0.67 +10.9 26
2011-10-29 @ Sion L 0-251.6 1615 1706 21.10% 24.61% 54.29%-0.67 -10.9 16
2011-10-30 Lausanne-Sport W 4-151.1 1733 1550 63.96% 21.96% 14.07%+1.13 +9.0 25
2011-10-30 @ Young Boys L 1-451.1 1550 1733 14.07% 21.96% 63.96%-1.13 -9.0 8
2011-10-30 Luzern D 1-172.3 1686 1727 36.95% 26.19% 36.85%+0.01 +0.0 14
2011-10-30 @ Zurich D 1-172.3 1727 1686 36.85% 26.19% 36.95%-0.01 +0.0 28
2011-10-30 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-162.7 1647 1627 45.36% 25.85% 28.79%+0.31 +7.1 18
2011-10-30 @ Servette L 1-262.7 1627 1647 28.79% 25.85% 45.36%-0.31 -7.1 19
2011-11-05 Basel L 2-362.6 1540 1824 13.07% 21.39% 65.54%-1.20 -3.2 8
2011-11-05 @ Lausanne-Sport W 3-262.6 1824 1540 65.54% 21.39% 13.07%+1.20 +3.2 31
2011-11-05 Luzern W 3-165.8 1604 1727 26.26% 25.57% 48.17%-0.40 +18.3 19
2011-11-05 @ Thun L 1-365.8 1727 1604 48.17% 25.57% 26.26%+0.40 -18.3 28
2011-11-06 Sion W 2-169.4 1567 1717 23.43% 25.12% 51.45%-0.53 +11.2 16
2011-11-06 @ Grasshopper L 1-269.4 1717 1567 51.45% 25.12% 23.43%+0.53 -11.2 26
2011-11-06 Young Boys W 1-062.9 1654 1743 30.45% 25.98% 43.56%-0.23 +10.4 21
2011-11-06 @ Servette L 0-162.9 1743 1654 43.56% 25.98% 30.45%+0.23 -10.3 25
2011-11-06 Zurich W 3-163.4 1620 1686 33.36% 26.13% 40.50%-0.12 +16.0 22
2011-11-06 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-363.4 1686 1620 40.50% 26.13% 33.36%+0.12 -16.0 14
2011-11-19 Servette W 3-054.3 1622 1664 36.77% 26.19% 37.04%+0.00 +25.0 22
2011-11-19 @ Thun L 0-354.3 1664 1622 37.04% 26.19% 36.77%+0.00 -25.0 21
2011-11-19 Young Boys W 1-056.3 1827 1732 54.65% 24.54% 20.81%+0.68 +5.7 34
2011-11-19 @ Basel L 0-156.3 1732 1827 20.81% 24.54% 54.65%-0.68 -5.7 25
2011-11-20 Grasshopper W 2-158.9 1709 1578 58.61% 23.61% 17.78%+0.86 +4.7 31
2011-11-20 @ Luzern L 1-258.9 1578 1709 17.78% 23.61% 58.61%-0.86 -4.7 16
2011-11-20 Lausanne-Sport W 4-151.3 1671 1537 58.89% 23.54% 17.57%+0.87 +11.3 17
2011-11-20 @ Zurich L 1-451.3 1537 1671 17.57% 23.54% 58.89%-0.87 -11.3 8
2011-11-20 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-052.6 1706 1636 51.74% 25.07% 23.19%+0.56 +11.9 29
2011-11-20 @ Sion L 0-252.6 1636 1706 23.19% 25.07% 51.74%-0.56 -11.9 22
2011-12-03 Luzern W 1-055.5 1833 1714 57.36% 23.93% 18.71%+0.80 +5.2 37
2011-12-03 @ Basel L 0-155.5 1714 1833 18.71% 23.93% 57.36%-0.80 -5.2 31
2011-12-03 Neuchatel Xamax L 1-356.9 1526 1624 29.28% 25.89% 44.83%-0.28 -12.5 8
2011-12-03 @ Lausanne-Sport W 3-156.9 1624 1526 44.83% 25.89% 29.28%+0.28 +12.5 25
2011-12-04 Sion D 1-172.5 1726 1718 43.88% 25.96% 30.16%+0.25 -0.7 26
2011-12-04 @ Young Boys D 1-172.5 1718 1726 30.16% 25.96% 43.88%-0.25 +0.7 30
2011-12-04 Thun W 1-060.0 1574 1647 32.44% 26.10% 41.46%-0.15 +10.0 19
2011-12-04 @ Grasshopper L 0-160.0 1647 1574 41.46% 26.10% 32.44%+0.15 -9.9 22
2011-12-04 Zurich L 0-160.2 1639 1682 36.70% 26.19% 37.11%+0.00 -9.1 21
2011-12-04 @ Servette W 1-060.2 1682 1639 37.11% 26.19% 36.70%+0.00 +9.1 20
2011-12-10 Sion D 1-172.2 1691 1718 38.85% 26.18% 34.98%+0.07 -0.2 21
2011-12-10 @ Zurich D 1-172.2 1718 1691 34.98% 26.18% 38.85%-0.07 +0.2 31
2011-12-10 Young Boys D 1-172.0 1637 1726 30.46% 25.98% 43.56%-0.23 +0.6 23
2011-12-10 @ Thun D 1-172.0 1726 1637 43.56% 25.98% 30.46%+0.23 -0.6 27
2011-12-11 Basel D 1-173.2 1637 1838 18.71% 23.93% 57.35%-0.79 +2.0 26
2011-12-11 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-173.2 1838 1637 57.35% 23.93% 18.71%+0.79 -2.0 38
2011-12-11 Grasshopper W 2-162.2 1513 1584 32.87% 26.12% 41.01%-0.14 +9.3 11
2011-12-11 @ Lausanne-Sport L 1-262.2 1584 1513 41.01% 26.12% 32.87%+0.14 -9.3 19
2011-12-11 Servette L 1-270.4 1708 1630 52.74% 24.90% 22.36%+0.60 -11.4 31
2011-12-11 @ Luzern W 2-170.4 1630 1708 22.36% 24.90% 52.74%-0.60 +11.4 24
2012-02-04 Lausanne-Sport D 1-169.2 1639 1523 57.01% 24.02% 18.98%+0.79 -2.0 27
2012-02-04 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-169.2 1523 1639 18.98% 24.02% 57.01%-0.79 +2.0 12
2012-02-05 Servette W 3-158.0 1725 1642 53.36% 24.79% 21.85%+0.63 +9.8 30
2012-02-05 @ Young Boys L 1-358.0 1642 1725 21.85% 24.79% 53.36%-0.63 -9.8 24
2012-02-05 Sion D 0-068.8 1836 1719 57.16% 23.98% 18.86%+0.79 -2.2 39
2012-02-05 @ Basel D 0-068.8 1719 1836 18.86% 23.98% 57.16%-0.79 +2.2 32
2012-02-05 Thun L 0-157.6 1574 1638 33.78% 26.15% 40.07%-0.10 -8.5 19
2012-02-05 @ Grasshopper W 1-057.6 1638 1574 40.07% 26.15% 33.78%+0.10 +8.5 26
2012-02-11 Luzern D 1-171.7 1646 1697 35.54% 26.19% 38.27%-0.04 +0.1 27
2012-02-11 @ Thun D 1-171.7 1697 1646 38.27% 26.19% 35.54%+0.04 -0.1 32
2012-02-12 Grasshopper W 2-049.6 1691 1566 58.00% 23.77% 18.23%+0.83 +9.5 24
2012-02-12 @ Zurich L 0-249.6 1566 1691 18.23% 23.77% 58.00%-0.83 -9.5 19
2012-02-12 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-161.1 1632 1637 42.04% 26.07% 31.89%+0.19 -10.1 24
2012-02-12 @ Servette W 1-061.1 1637 1632 31.89% 26.07% 42.04%-0.19 +10.1 30
2012-02-16 Basel D 2-278.6 1735 1834 29.21% 25.89% 44.91%-0.28 +0.6 31
2012-02-16 @ Young Boys D 2-278.6 1834 1735 44.91% 25.89% 29.21%+0.28 -0.6 40
2012-02-18 Sion D 1-172.0 1647 1721 32.32% 26.09% 41.59%-0.16 +0.5 31
2012-02-18 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-172.0 1721 1647 41.59% 26.09% 32.32%+0.16 -0.4 33
2012-02-19 Grasshopper W 3-155.7 1622 1556 51.19% 25.16% 23.65%+0.54 +10.5 27
2012-02-19 @ Servette L 1-355.7 1556 1622 23.65% 25.16% 51.19%-0.54 -10.5 19
2012-02-19 Luzern D 0-065.7 1525 1697 21.27% 24.65% 54.08%-0.64 +1.9 13
2012-02-19 @ Lausanne-Sport D 0-065.7 1697 1525 54.08% 24.65% 21.27%+0.64 -1.9 33
2012-02-25 Neuchatel Xamax W 2-054.8 1646 1647 42.61% 26.04% 31.35%+0.21 +15.2 30
2012-02-25 @ Thun L 0-254.8 1647 1646 31.35% 26.04% 42.61%-0.21 -15.2 31
2012-02-25 Zurich W 1-055.0 1833 1700 58.84% 23.55% 17.61%+0.87 +4.9 43
2012-02-25 @ Basel L 0-155.0 1700 1833 17.61% 23.55% 58.84%-0.87 -4.9 24
2012-02-26 Lausanne-Sport D 0-061.2 1546 1527 45.29% 25.86% 28.86%+0.31 -0.9 20
2012-02-26 @ Grasshopper D 0-061.2 1527 1546 28.86% 25.86% 45.29%-0.31 +0.9 14
2012-02-26 Servette L 0-165.2 1720 1632 53.91% 24.68% 21.41%+0.65 -12.4 33
2012-02-26 @ Sion W 1-065.2 1632 1720 21.41% 24.68% 53.91%-0.65 +12.4 30
2012-03-03 Servette W 1-057.7 1662 1645 45.01% 25.88% 29.11%+0.30 +7.6 33
2012-03-03 @ Thun L 0-157.7 1645 1662 29.11% 25.88% 45.01%-0.30 -7.6 30
2012-03-03 Sion L 0-162.2 1695 1708 40.94% 26.12% 32.95%+0.15 -9.8 24
2012-03-03 @ Zurich W 1-062.2 1708 1695 32.95% 26.12% 40.94%-0.15 +9.9 36
2012-03-04 Grasshopper W 3-154.9 1632 1545 53.75% 24.71% 21.53%+0.64 +9.6 34
2012-03-04 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-354.9 1545 1632 21.53% 24.71% 53.75%-0.64 -9.6 20
2012-03-04 Young Boys D 0-066.7 1528 1735 18.18% 23.75% 58.06%-0.82 +2.4 15
2012-03-04 @ Lausanne-Sport D 0-066.7 1735 1528 58.06% 23.75% 18.18%+0.82 -2.3 32
2012-03-10 Basel L 0-248.2 1535 1838 12.01% 20.71% 67.28%-1.29 -6.2 20
2012-03-10 @ Grasshopper W 2-048.2 1838 1535 67.28% 20.71% 12.01%+1.29 +6.2 46
2012-03-10 Thun W 1-057.2 1718 1669 49.12% 25.45% 25.43%+0.45 +6.8 39
2012-03-10 @ Sion L 0-157.2 1669 1718 25.43% 25.45% 49.12%-0.45 -6.8 33
2012-03-11 Luzern W 2-166.7 1637 1695 34.52% 26.17% 39.31%-0.08 +9.0 33
2012-03-11 @ Servette L 1-266.7 1695 1637 39.31% 26.17% 34.52%+0.08 -9.0 33
2012-03-11 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-165.5 1733 1642 54.29% 24.61% 21.10%+0.67 -12.4 32
2012-03-11 @ Young Boys W 1-065.5 1642 1733 21.10% 24.61% 54.29%-0.67 +12.4 37
2012-03-17 Sion D 0-067.6 1686 1725 37.25% 26.19% 36.55%+0.02 -0.0 34
2012-03-17 @ Luzern D 0-067.6 1725 1686 36.55% 26.19% 37.25%-0.02 +0.0 40
2012-03-17 Young Boys W 2-061.0 1529 1721 19.53% 24.18% 56.29%-0.74 +24.2 23
2012-03-17 @ Grasshopper L 0-261.0 1721 1529 56.29% 24.18% 19.53%+0.74 -24.2 32
2012-03-18 Basel D 1-173.2 1654 1844 19.65% 24.22% 56.13%-0.73 +1.9 38
2012-03-18 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 1-173.2 1844 1654 56.13% 24.22% 19.65%+0.73 -1.9 47
2012-03-18 Lausanne-Sport W 2-048.1 1662 1530 58.81% 23.56% 17.63%+0.87 +9.2 36
2012-03-18 @ Thun L 0-248.1 1530 1662 17.63% 23.56% 58.81%-0.87 -9.2 15
2012-03-24 Neuchatel Xamax W 5-052.1 1685 1656 46.67% 25.73% 27.60%+0.36 +32.1 27
2012-03-24 @ Zurich L 0-552.1 1656 1685 27.60% 25.73% 46.67%-0.36 -32.1 38
2012-03-25 Grasshopper W 1-052.5 1686 1553 58.83% 23.55% 17.61%+0.87 +4.9 37
2012-03-25 @ Luzern L 0-152.5 1553 1686 17.61% 23.55% 58.83%-0.87 -4.9 23
2012-03-25 Lausanne-Sport W 1-050.5 1725 1521 65.84% 21.28% 12.89%+1.23 +3.6 43
2012-03-25 @ Sion L 0-150.5 1521 1725 12.89% 21.28% 65.84%-1.23 -3.6 15
2012-03-25 Thun W 4-052.0 1697 1672 46.04% 25.79% 28.17%+0.34 +26.5 35
2012-03-25 @ Young Boys L 0-452.0 1672 1697 28.17% 25.79% 46.04%-0.34 -26.5 36
2012-03-31 Basel L 2-366.0 1645 1842 19.07% 24.04% 56.89%-0.77 -4.7 36
2012-03-31 @ Thun W 3-266.0 1842 1645 56.89% 24.04% 19.07%+0.77 +4.7 50
2012-03-31 Sion L 0-250.8 1548 1728 20.55% 24.47% 54.98%-0.68 -10.7 23
2012-03-31 @ Grasshopper W 2-050.8 1728 1548 54.98% 24.47% 20.55%+0.68 +10.6 46
2012-04-01 Luzern W 3-163.5 1624 1691 33.28% 26.13% 40.59%-0.12 +16.0 41
2012-04-01 @ Neuchatel Xamax L 1-363.5 1691 1624 40.59% 26.13% 33.28%+0.12 -16.0 37
2012-04-01 Young Boys D 2-278.1 1718 1723 41.96% 26.07% 31.97%+0.18 -0.4 28
2012-04-01 @ Zurich D 2-278.1 1723 1718 31.97% 26.07% 41.96%-0.18 +0.4 36
2012-04-04 Basel L 0-247.4 1517 1847 10.67% 19.71% 69.62%-1.43 -5.5 15
2012-04-04 @ Lausanne-Sport W 2-047.4 1847 1517 69.62% 19.71% 10.67%+1.43 +5.5 53
2012-04-07 Neuchatel Xamax D 1-169.0 1538 1640 28.79% 25.85% 45.36%-0.30 +0.8 24
2012-04-07 @ Grasshopper D 1-169.0 1640 1538 45.36% 25.85% 28.79%+0.30 -0.8 42
2012-04-07 Zurich W 2-164.2 1739 1717 45.64% 25.83% 28.53%+0.32 +7.1 49
2012-04-07 @ Sion L 1-264.2 1717 1739 28.53% 25.83% 45.64%-0.32 -7.0 28
2012-04-09 Lausanne-Sport L 1-368.6 1723 1512 66.52% 21.01% 12.47%+1.26 -24.1 36
2012-04-09 @ Young Boys W 3-168.6 1512 1723 12.47% 21.01% 66.52%-1.26 +24.1 18
2012-04-09 Thun L 0-258.3 1646 1640 43.45% 25.99% 30.56%+0.24 -19.5 33
2012-04-09 @ Servette W 2-058.3 1640 1646 30.56% 25.99% 43.45%-0.24 +19.5 39
2012-04-14 Grasshopper D 2-277.0 1699 1538 61.70% 22.72% 15.58%+1.01 -1.8 37
2012-04-14 @ Young Boys D 2-277.0 1538 1699 15.58% 22.72% 61.70%-1.01 +1.8 25
2012-04-14 Thun W 1-061.4 1536 1660 26.20% 25.56% 48.24%-0.41 +11.2 21
2012-04-14 @ Lausanne-Sport L 0-161.4 1660 1536 48.24% 25.56% 26.20%+0.41 -11.2 39
2012-04-15 Luzern D 0-067.5 1710 1675 47.40% 25.65% 26.94%+0.39 -1.1 29
2012-04-15 @ Zurich D 0-067.5 1675 1710 26.94% 25.65% 47.40%-0.39 +1.1 38
2012-04-15 Neuchatel Xamax D 2-279.9 1852 1639 66.69% 20.95% 12.37%+1.27 -2.2 54
2012-04-15 @ Basel D 2-279.9 1639 1852 12.37% 20.95% 66.69%-1.27 +2.2 43
2012-04-21 Grasshopper D 0-065.1 1649 1540 56.19% 24.21% 19.61%+0.75 -2.1 40
2012-04-21 @ Thun D 0-065.1 1540 1649 19.61% 24.21% 56.19%-0.75 +2.1 26
2012-04-21 Servette W 3-158.6 1676 1626 49.22% 25.44% 25.34%+0.46 +11.1 41
2012-04-21 @ Luzern L 1-358.6 1626 1676 25.34% 25.44% 49.22%-0.46 -11.1 33
2012-04-22 Lausanne-Sport W 2-048.4 1709 1547 61.83% 22.68% 15.49%+1.02 +8.1 32
2012-04-22 @ Zurich L 0-248.4 1547 1709 15.49% 22.68% 61.83%-1.02 -8.1 21
2012-04-22 Young Boys L 0-354.3 1641 1697 34.77% 26.17% 39.06%-0.07 -23.9 43
2012-04-22 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 3-054.3 1697 1641 39.06% 26.17% 34.77%+0.07 +23.9 40
2012-04-28 Young Boys W 2-168.6 1615 1721 28.33% 25.81% 45.86%-0.31 +10.2 36
2012-04-28 @ Servette L 1-268.6 1721 1615 45.86% 25.81% 28.33%+0.31 -10.2 40
2012-04-28 Zurich D 2-277.4 1617 1717 29.05% 25.87% 45.08%-0.29 +0.6 44
2012-04-28 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 2-277.4 1717 1617 45.08% 25.87% 29.05%+0.29 -0.6 33
2012-04-29 Lausanne-Sport W 3-151.8 1850 1539 74.64% 17.30% 8.06%+1.76 +3.5 57
2012-04-29 @ Basel L 1-351.8 1539 1850 8.06% 17.30% 74.64%-1.76 -3.4 21
2012-04-29 Sion D 1-172.2 1647 1746 29.10% 25.88% 45.02%-0.28 +0.8 41
2012-04-29 @ Thun D 1-172.2 1746 1647 45.02% 25.88% 29.10%+0.28 -0.8 50
2012-05-01 Neuchatel Xamax W 1-055.6 1687 1618 51.65% 25.08% 23.26%+0.56 +6.3 44
2012-05-01 @ Luzern L 0-155.6 1618 1687 23.26% 25.08% 51.65%-0.56 -6.3 44
2012-05-02 Servette L 0-350.2 1542 1626 31.17% 26.03% 42.80%-0.20 -22.0 26
2012-05-02 @ Grasshopper W 3-050.2 1626 1542 42.80% 26.03% 31.17%+0.20 +22.0 39
2012-05-02 Sion W 1-065.4 1535 1745 18.02% 23.70% 58.28%-0.83 +13.2 24
2012-05-02 @ Lausanne-Sport L 0-165.4 1745 1535 58.28% 23.70% 18.02%+0.83 -13.2 50
2012-05-02 Thun W 2-158.3 1854 1647 66.04% 21.20% 12.76%+1.24 +3.3 60
2012-05-02 @ Basel L 1-258.3 1647 1854 12.76% 21.20% 66.04%-1.24 -3.3 41
2012-05-05 Thun D 2-276.2 1612 1644 38.15% 26.19% 35.66%+0.05 -0.1 45
2012-05-05 @ Neuchatel Xamax D 2-276.2 1644 1612 35.66% 26.19% 38.15%-0.05 +0.1 42
2012-05-06 Basel L 1-555.4 1717 1857 24.42% 25.29% 50.28%-0.49 -19.6 33
2012-05-06 @ Zurich W 5-155.4 1857 1717 50.28% 25.29% 24.42%+0.49 +19.6 63
2012-05-06 Grasshopper W 3-261.0 1732 1521 66.51% 21.01% 12.47%+1.26 +3.1 53
2012-05-06 @ Sion L 2-361.0 1521 1732 12.47% 21.01% 66.51%-1.26 -3.1 26
2012-05-06 Lausanne-Sport D 0-065.2 1648 1549 55.12% 24.44% 20.44%+0.70 -2.0 40
2012-05-06 @ Servette D 0-065.2 1549 1648 20.44% 24.44% 55.12%-0.70 +2.0 25
2012-05-12 Lausanne-Sport W 3-262.8 1693 1551 59.88% 23.26% 16.86%+0.92 +4.2 47
2012-05-12 @ Luzern L 2-362.8 1551 1693 16.86% 23.26% 59.88%-0.92 -4.2 25
2012-05-12 Neuchatel Xamax W 6-357.1 1735 1611 57.87% 23.80% 18.32%+0.83 +9.4 56
2012-05-12 @ Sion L 3-657.1 1611 1735 18.32% 23.80% 57.87%-0.83 -9.4 45
2012-05-13 Servette L 0-164.0 1697 1646 49.46% 25.41% 25.13%+0.47 -11.5 33
2012-05-13 @ Zurich W 1-064.0 1646 1697 25.13% 25.41% 49.46%-0.47 +11.5 43
2012-05-13 Young Boys D 2-277.5 1644 1711 33.30% 26.13% 40.57%-0.12 +0.3 43
2012-05-13 @ Thun D 2-277.5 1711 1644 40.57% 26.13% 33.30%+0.12 -0.3 41
2012-05-20 Basel W 2-173.0 1657 1877 17.27% 23.42% 59.31%-0.88 +12.7 46
2012-05-20 @ Servette L 1-273.0 1877 1657 59.31% 23.42% 17.27%+0.88 -12.7 63
2012-05-20 Neuchatel Xamax L 0-156.4 1546 1602 34.87% 26.18% 38.96%-0.06 -8.7 25
2012-05-20 @ Lausanne-Sport W 1-056.4 1602 1546 38.96% 26.18% 34.87%+0.06 +8.7 48
2012-05-20 Sion W 3-055.4 1711 1745 37.97% 26.19% 35.84%+0.04 +24.4 44
2012-05-20 @ Young Boys L 0-355.4 1745 1711 35.84% 26.19% 37.97%-0.04 -24.4 56
2012-05-20 Thun L 0-164.1 1698 1644 49.68% 25.38% 24.94%+0.48 -11.5 47
2012-05-20 @ Luzern W 1-064.1 1644 1698 24.94% 25.38% 49.68%-0.48 +11.5 46
2012-05-23 Grasshopper W 2-157.0 1538 1517 45.44% 25.84% 28.72%+0.31 +7.1 28
2012-05-23 @ Lausanne-Sport L 1-257.0 1517 1538 28.72% 25.84% 45.44%-0.31 -7.1 26
2012-05-23 Luzern L 1-366.2 1720 1686 47.25% 25.67% 27.08%+0.38 -18.1 56
2012-05-23 @ Sion W 3-166.2 1686 1720 27.08% 25.67% 47.25%-0.38 +18.1 50
2012-05-23 Servette L 1-264.6 1611 1670 34.41% 26.17% 39.43%-0.08 -8.2 48
2012-05-23 @ Neuchatel Xamax W 2-164.6 1670 1611 39.43% 26.17% 34.41%+0.08 +8.2 49
2012-05-23 Zurich L 2-467.0 1656 1686 38.56% 26.18% 35.26%+0.06 -13.8 46
2012-05-23 @ Thun W 4-267.0 1686 1656 35.26% 26.18% 38.56%-0.06 +13.8 36

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2012-05-26 Aarau W 2-050.7 1702 1594 56.18% 24.21% 19.61%+0.75 +10.2 3
2012-05-26 @ Sion L 0-250.7 1594 1702 19.61% 24.21% 56.18%-0.75 -10.2 0
2012-05-28 Sion W 1-063.3 1584 1712 25.69% 25.49% 48.82%-0.43 +11.4 3
2012-05-28 @ Aarau L 0-163.3 1712 1584 48.82% 25.49% 25.69%+0.43 -11.4 3

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-08-20 11.89% Neuchatel Xamax 1531 2 @ Zurich 1754 0
2 2012-04-09 12.47% Lausanne-Sport 1512 3 @ Young Boys 1723 1
3 2011-10-23 15.18% Grasshopper 1582 1 @ Young Boys 1748 0
4 2012-05-20 17.27% @ Servette 1657 2 Basel 1877 1
5 2012-05-02 18.02% @ Lausanne-Sport 1535 1 Sion 1745 0
6 2011-10-22 18.82% Neuchatel Xamax 1614 2 @ Luzern 1731 1
7 2012-03-17 19.53% @ Grasshopper 1529 2 Young Boys 1721 0
8 2011-08-20 20.65% Grasshopper 1581 4 @ Servette 1678 3
9 2012-03-11 21.10% Neuchatel Xamax 1642 1 @ Young Boys 1733 0
10 2012-02-26 21.41% Servette 1632 1 @ Sion 1720 0
11 2011-12-11 22.36% Servette 1630 2 @ Luzern 1708 1
12 2011-10-02 22.37% @ Grasshopper 1549 3 Zurich 1709 0
13 2011-07-23 22.59% Servette 1657 3 @ Zurich 1733 2
14 2011-11-06 23.43% @ Grasshopper 1567 2 Sion 1717 1
15 2012-05-20 24.94% Thun 1644 1 @ Luzern 1698 0
16 2012-05-13 25.13% Servette 1646 1 @ Zurich 1697 0
17 2012-05-28 25.69% @ Aarau 1584 1 Sion 1712 0
18 2011-09-11 26.05% Sion 1667 3 @ Thun 1710 0
19 2012-04-14 26.20% @ Lausanne-Sport 1536 1 Thun 1660 0
20 2011-11-05 26.26% @ Thun 1604 3 Luzern 1727 1
21 2011-08-28 26.39% Servette 1667 4 @ Sion 1707 0
22 2012-05-23 27.08% Luzern 1686 3 @ Sion 1720 1
23 2011-08-21 27.14% Thun 1696 2 @ Young Boys 1730 0
24 2011-10-01 28.32% @ Neuchatel Xamax 1575 4 Thun 1681 0
25 2012-04-28 28.33% @ Servette 1615 2 Young Boys 1721 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-08-28 40.10 Servette 4 1667 26.39% @ Sion 0 1707 48.03% 25.58%
2 2011-10-01 38.61 @ Neuchatel Xamax 4 1575 28.32% Thun 0 1681 45.88% 25.81%
3 2011-09-10 33.62 Basel 4 1737 35.36% @ Servette 0 1707 38.45% 26.18%
4 2011-10-02 33.22 @ Grasshopper 3 1549 22.37% Zurich 0 1709 52.73% 24.90%
5 2012-03-24 32.10 @ Zurich 5 1685 46.67% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1656 27.60% 25.73%
6 2011-08-07 31.81 @ Zurich 6 1712 52.85% Grasshopper 0 1633 22.27% 24.88%
7 2011-09-11 30.90 Sion 3 1667 26.05% @ Thun 0 1710 48.41% 25.54%
8 2011-08-20 28.19 Neuchatel Xamax 2 1531 11.89% @ Zurich 0 1754 67.50% 20.62%
9 2012-03-25 26.48 @ Young Boys 4 1697 46.04% Thun 0 1672 28.17% 25.79%
10 2011-11-19 25.02 @ Thun 3 1622 36.77% Servette 0 1664 37.04% 26.19%
11 2012-05-20 24.42 @ Young Boys 3 1711 37.97% Sion 0 1745 35.84% 26.19%
12 2012-03-17 24.19 @ Grasshopper 2 1529 19.53% Young Boys 0 1721 56.29% 24.18%
13 2012-04-09 24.14 Lausanne-Sport 3 1512 12.47% @ Young Boys 1 1723 66.52% 21.01%
14 2012-04-22 23.87 Young Boys 3 1697 39.06% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1641 34.77% 26.17%
15 2011-07-17 23.77 Luzern 3 1634 39.26% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1577 34.57% 26.17%
16 2012-05-02 21.96 Servette 3 1626 42.80% @ Grasshopper 0 1542 31.17% 26.03%
17 2011-10-26 21.77 Servette 4 1625 35.20% @ Grasshopper 1 1596 38.62% 26.18%
18 2011-07-24 21.20 @ Thun 3 1665 44.25% Grasshopper 0 1654 29.81% 25.94%
19 2011-08-21 20.82 Thun 2 1696 27.14% @ Young Boys 0 1730 47.18% 25.68%
20 2011-08-14 20.19 Young Boys 3 1710 46.19% @ Grasshopper 0 1601 28.03% 25.78%
21 2011-09-11 20.05 Young Boys 3 1700 46.46% @ Lausanne-Sport 0 1590 27.79% 25.75%
22 2012-05-06 19.61 Basel 5 1857 50.28% @ Zurich 1 1717 24.42% 25.29%
23 2012-04-09 19.48 Thun 2 1640 30.56% @ Servette 0 1646 43.45% 25.99%
24 2011-09-21 18.98 @ Basel 6 1771 65.54% Lausanne-Sport 0 1570 13.07% 21.39%
25 2011-07-31 18.91 Sion 3 1673 48.60% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1546 25.88% 25.52%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-08-06 82.2 @ Basel 3 1757 51.15% Sion 3 1692 23.69% 25.16%
2 2012-04-15 79.9 @ Basel 2 1852 66.69% Neuchatel Xamax 2 1639 12.37% 20.95%
3 2012-02-16 78.6 @ Young Boys 2 1735 29.21% Basel 2 1834 44.91% 25.89%
4 2012-04-01 78.1 @ Zurich 2 1718 41.96% Young Boys 2 1723 31.97% 26.07%
5 2011-07-30 78.0 @ Grasshopper 2 1632 26.04% Basel 2 1758 48.43% 25.54%
6 2012-05-13 77.5 @ Thun 2 1644 33.30% Young Boys 2 1711 40.57% 26.13%
7 2011-08-20 77.4 Grasshopper 4 1581 20.65% @ Servette 3 1678 54.86% 24.49%
8 2012-04-28 77.4 @ Neuchatel Xamax 2 1617 29.05% Zurich 2 1717 45.08% 25.87%
9 2012-04-14 77.0 @ Young Boys 2 1699 61.70% Grasshopper 2 1538 15.58% 22.72%
10 2012-05-05 76.2 @ Neuchatel Xamax 2 1612 38.15% Thun 2 1644 35.66% 26.19%
11 2011-07-23 75.7 Servette 3 1657 22.59% @ Zurich 2 1733 52.46% 24.95%
12 2011-08-27 73.9 @ Neuchatel Xamax 2 1560 38.48% Lausanne-Sport 2 1590 35.34% 26.18%
13 2011-12-11 73.2 @ Neuchatel Xamax 1 1637 18.71% Basel 1 1838 57.35% 23.93%
14 2012-03-18 73.2 @ Neuchatel Xamax 1 1654 19.65% Basel 1 1844 56.13% 24.22%
15 2012-05-20 73.0 @ Servette 2 1657 17.27% Basel 1 1877 59.31% 23.42%
16 2011-08-28 72.7 Zurich 3 1726 33.50% @ Young Boys 2 1709 40.36% 26.14%
17 2011-09-24 72.7 @ Thun 1 1680 27.89% Basel 1 1790 46.34% 25.76%
18 2011-07-16 72.5 @ Young Boys 1 1702 35.71% Basel 1 1751 38.10% 26.19%
19 2011-12-04 72.5 @ Young Boys 1 1726 43.88% Sion 1 1718 30.16% 25.96%
20 2011-10-30 72.3 @ Zurich 1 1686 36.95% Luzern 1 1727 36.85% 26.19%
21 2011-07-31 72.2 @ Young Boys 1 1711 48.38% Servette 1 1668 26.08% 25.54%
22 2011-12-10 72.2 @ Zurich 1 1691 38.85% Sion 1 1718 34.98% 26.18%
23 2012-04-29 72.2 @ Thun 1 1647 29.10% Sion 1 1746 45.02% 25.88%
24 2011-08-07 72.0 @ Luzern 1 1668 36.77% Young Boys 1 1710 37.03% 26.19%
25 2011-08-13 72.0 @ Sion 1 1693 46.09% Luzern 1 1668 28.13% 25.79%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-09-21 47.2 @ Basel 6 1771 65.54% Lausanne-Sport 0 1570 13.07% 21.39%
2 2012-04-04 47.4 Basel 2 1847 69.62% @ Lausanne-Sport 0 1517 10.67% 19.71%
3 2011-07-24 48.1 @ Basel 2 1751 65.28% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1553 13.23% 21.49%
4 2012-03-18 48.1 @ Thun 2 1662 58.81% Lausanne-Sport 0 1530 17.63% 23.56%
5 2012-03-10 48.2 Basel 2 1838 67.28% @ Grasshopper 0 1535 12.01% 20.71%
6 2012-04-22 48.4 @ Zurich 2 1709 61.83% Lausanne-Sport 0 1547 15.49% 22.68%
7 2011-10-27 48.8 @ Luzern 2 1719 61.78% Lausanne-Sport 0 1558 15.53% 22.69%
8 2011-10-01 49.1 @ Basel 3 1789 58.98% Servette 0 1655 17.51% 23.51%
9 2011-07-31 49.6 Sion 3 1673 48.60% @ Neuchatel Xamax 0 1546 25.88% 25.52%
10 2011-09-22 49.6 @ Sion 2 1698 58.51% Grasshopper 0 1568 17.85% 23.64%
11 2012-02-12 49.6 @ Zurich 2 1691 58.00% Grasshopper 0 1566 18.23% 23.77%
12 2012-05-02 50.2 Servette 3 1626 42.80% @ Grasshopper 0 1542 31.17% 26.03%
13 2012-03-25 50.5 @ Sion 1 1725 65.84% Lausanne-Sport 0 1521 12.89% 21.28%
14 2011-10-29 50.6 @ Basel 4 1817 69.23% Grasshopper 1 1574 10.89% 19.88%
15 2012-05-26 50.7 @ Sion 2 1702 56.18% Aarau 0 1594 19.61% 24.21%
16 2012-03-31 50.8 Sion 2 1728 54.98% @ Grasshopper 0 1548 20.55% 24.47%
17 2011-08-07 51.0 @ Zurich 6 1712 52.85% Grasshopper 0 1633 22.27% 24.88%
18 2011-10-30 51.1 @ Young Boys 4 1733 63.96% Lausanne-Sport 1 1550 14.07% 21.96%
19 2011-11-20 51.3 @ Zurich 4 1671 58.89% Lausanne-Sport 1 1537 17.57% 23.54%
20 2011-09-11 51.5 Young Boys 3 1700 46.46% @ Lausanne-Sport 0 1590 27.79% 25.75%
21 2011-10-29 51.6 @ Sion 2 1706 54.29% Thun 0 1615 21.10% 24.61%
22 2011-08-14 51.8 Young Boys 3 1710 46.19% @ Grasshopper 0 1601 28.03% 25.78%
23 2012-04-29 51.8 @ Basel 3 1850 74.64% Lausanne-Sport 1 1539 8.06% 17.30%
24 2012-03-25 52.0 @ Young Boys 4 1697 46.04% Thun 0 1672 28.17% 25.79%
25 2012-03-24 52.1 @ Zurich 5 1685 46.67% Neuchatel Xamax 0 1656 27.60% 25.73%