2011 USL Season

139 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Harrisburg City Islanders

1st Title

Runner-Up

Orlando City SC

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Orlando City SC

17.27 points above expected

50 points · 32.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dayton Dutch Lions

19.51 points below expected

12 points · 31.51 expected points

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Orlando City SC Conference	15	3	5	50	.725	34	14	+20	32.73	+17.27
2	Wilmington Hammerheads Playoffs	14	7	3	45	.625	42	30	+12	33.79	+11.21
3	Richmond Kickers Playoffs	12	7	5	41	.569	35	21	+14	34.50	+6.50
4	Charleston Battery Playoffs	10	9	5	35	.486	24	25	-1	33.39	+1.61
5	Charlotte Eagles	9	9	6	33	.458	32	29	+3	33.39	-0.39
6	Antigua Barracuda FC	4	12	2	14	.259	18	29	-11	23.69	-9.69

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rochester Rhinos Conference	12	8	4	40	.556	31	23	+8	33.79	+6.21
2	Harrisburg City Islanders Playoffs	10	7	7	37	.514	37	30	+7	33.61	+3.39
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Playoffs	7	11	6	27	.375	23	32	-9	32.70	-5.70
4	Los Angeles Blues Playoffs	6	7	8	26	.413	26	26	0	30.48	-4.48
5	FC New York	6	11	7	25	.347	27	37	-10	32.69	-7.69
6	Dayton Dutch Lions	2	16	6	12	.167	21	54	-33	31.51	-19.51

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

American Conference

Semifinals

Richmond Kickers 0

Wilmington Hammerheads 0

Aug 19

Orlando City SC 3

Charleston Battery 1

Aug 20

Conference Final

Orlando City SC 3

Richmond Kickers 0

Aug 27

National Conference

Semifinals

Harrisburg City Islanders 3

Los Angeles Blues 1

Aug 19

Rochester Rhinos 4

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0

Aug 19

Conference Final

Harrisburg City Islanders 2

Rochester Rhinos 1

Aug 26

USL Championship

Harrisburg City Islanders 2

Orlando City SC 2

Sep 3

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Orlando City SC	American	1523	50	32.73	+17.27	99.80%	12	23	28	33	37	43	57
Richmond Kickers	American	1516	41	34.50	+6.50	85.89%	11	24	30	35	39	45	59
Wilmington Hammerheads	American	1511	45	33.79	+11.21	96.63%	10	23	29	34	38	44	59
Rochester Rhinos	National	1508	40	33.79	+6.21	85.08%	8	23	29	34	38	44	58
Harrisburg City Islanders	National	1506	37	33.61	+3.39	72.97%	11	23	29	34	38	44	59
Charlotte Eagles	American	1504	33	33.39	-0.39	51.10%	12	23	29	33	38	44	57
Charleston Battery	American	1499	35	33.39	+1.61	62.95%	10	23	29	33	38	44	60
Los Angeles Blues	National	1499	26	30.48	-4.48	25.75%	10	21	26	30	35	41	53
FC New York	National	1491	25	32.69	-7.69	13.31%	9	22	28	33	37	43	61
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	National	1490	27	32.70	-5.70	21.48%	10	22	28	33	37	43	58
Antigua Barracuda FC	American	1488	14	23.69	-9.69	4.75%	3	15	20	24	27	33	43
Dayton Dutch Lions	National	1463	12	31.51	-19.51	0.12%	8	21	27	31	36	42	57

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's points earned in that matchup (row vs column) and below it the expected points the model predicted based on each individual game's win, OT/SO, and loss probabilities. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within American

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	SC	Kickers	Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	—	0 (1.1 exp.)	3 (4.2 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)
Charleston Battery	—	—	9 (4.4 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	6 (3.9 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	3 (1.6 exp.)	0 (3.9 exp.)	—	1 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	6 (4.4 exp.)
Orlando City SC	6 (4.1 exp.)	6 (4.6 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	—	3 (2.8 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	3 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	—	6 (2.8 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	6 (2.4 exp.)	3 (4.5 exp.)	3 (3.9 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	—

American vs. Outside Teams

Team	Lions	York	Islanders	Blues	Riverhounds	Rhinos
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	0 (1.1 exp.)	—	10 (7.5 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	1 (4.4 exp.)
Charleston Battery	7 (4.1 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	2 (4.5 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	4 (2.9 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	1 (4.4 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)
Orlando City SC	4 (3.0 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	—	4 (2.9 exp.)	7 (4.0 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	9 (4.8 exp.)	5 (4.1 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	2 (4.1 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	3 (1.3 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	7 (4.5 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)

Within National

Team	Lions	York	Islanders	Blues	Riverhounds	Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions	—	3 (4.3 exp.)	1 (3.6 exp.)	2 (3.7 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)
FC New York	6 (4.0 exp.)	—	2 (3.8 exp.)	—	1 (3.9 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	7 (4.7 exp.)	5 (4.6 exp.)	—	5 (3.9 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	5 (4.7 exp.)	—	2 (4.4 exp.)	—	3 (1.1 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3 (2.9 exp.)	7 (4.4 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0 (3.7 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	6 (2.9 exp.)	3 (4.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	—	9 (4.6 exp.)	—

National vs. Outside Teams

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	SC	Kickers	Hammerheads
Dayton Dutch Lions	—	1 (4.2 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	0 (3.6 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)
FC New York	3 (1.7 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	2 (4.2 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	—	3 (2.8 exp.)	7 (3.9 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	7 (9.2 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	—	5 (4.2 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3 (1.6 exp.)	5 (3.8 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (3.8 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	7 (3.9 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	1 (4.3 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of goals scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Points vs. Goal Differential

How goals translated into points. Teams above the cluster overperformed their goals differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Orlando City SC	50	32.73	+17.27
2	Wilmington Hammerheads	45	33.79	+11.21
3	Richmond Kickers	41	34.50	+6.50
4	Rochester Rhinos	40	33.79	+6.21
5	Harrisburg City Islanders	37	33.61	+3.39

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dayton Dutch Lions	12	31.51	-19.51
2	Antigua Barracuda FC	14	23.69	-9.69
3	FC New York	25	32.69	-7.69
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	32.70	-5.70
5	Los Angeles Blues	26	30.48	-4.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando City SC	5	Apr 9 – May 14	1 in 148
2	Richmond Kickers	6	Apr 2 – May 7	1 in 125
3	Wilmington Hammerheads	4	Jul 23 – Aug 5	1 in 45
4	Rochester Rhinos	4	Jun 11 – Jul 1	1 in 27
5	Harrisburg City Islanders	3	May 31 – Jun 8	1 in 9

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	7	Jun 24 – Jul 16	1 in 836
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5	May 31 – Jun 24	1 in 57
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	6	Jun 8 – Jul 4	1 in 56
4	Charleston Battery	3	May 7 – May 21	1 in 15
5	FC New York	3	Jul 4 – Jul 9	1 in 14

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando City SC	10	Apr 9 – Jun 4	1 in 173
2	Charlotte Eagles	7	May 14 – Jun 24	1 in 29
3	Harrisburg City Islanders	6	Jun 17 – Jul 15	1 in 28
4	Richmond Kickers	7	Apr 2 – May 14	1 in 20
5	Rochester Rhinos	6	Jun 3 – Jul 1	1 in 18

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dayton Dutch Lions	13	Jun 8 – Jul 27	1 in 122
2	FC New York	8	Jul 4 – Aug 5	1 in 37
3	Antigua Barracuda FC	7	Jun 24 – Jul 16	1 in 30
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	7	May 22 – Jun 24	1 in 26
5	Los Angeles Blues	5	Jun 24 – Jul 15	1 in 16

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall USL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Richmond Kickers	23.93%	20.94%	18.92%	16.69%	13.50%	6.02%
Wilmington Hammerheads	20.46%	20.41%	19.05%	17.86%	14.29%	7.93%
Charleston Battery	19.61%	18.82%	19.02%	18.02%	17.01%	7.52%
Charlotte Eagles	19.23%	19.26%	18.88%	18.30%	16.73%	7.60%
Orlando City SC	16.01%	18.25%	19.53%	19.38%	17.21%	9.62%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.76%	2.32%	4.60%	9.75%	21.26%	61.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Rochester Rhinos	21.64%	19.60%	17.12%	16.05%	13.78%	11.81%
Harrisburg City Islanders	21.70%	18.44%	17.17%	15.67%	14.41%	12.61%
FC New York	17.40%	17.12%	17.09%	16.46%	16.37%	15.56%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	17.69%	16.73%	17.16%	15.84%	17.05%	15.53%
Dayton Dutch Lions	12.60%	15.66%	15.84%	17.33%	17.61%	20.96%
Los Angeles Blues	8.97%	12.45%	15.62%	18.65%	20.78%	23.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Richmond Kickers	13.17%	11.45%	10.26%	10.14%	9.57%	8.69%	7.91%	7.12%	6.67%	6.28%	5.26%	3.48%
Rochester Rhinos	11.27%	10.25%	9.53%	9.49%	9.48%	8.94%	8.45%	7.84%	7.79%	6.86%	6.12%	3.98%
Wilmington Hammerheads	10.64%	10.15%	10.38%	9.72%	9.24%	8.62%	8.83%	8.19%	7.19%	7.07%	5.69%	4.28%
Harrisburg City Islanders	10.63%	9.80%	9.78%	9.36%	9.16%	9.01%	8.76%	8.39%	8.03%	6.73%	6.51%	3.84%
Charleston Battery	9.97%	9.84%	9.69%	9.15%	9.42%	8.64%	8.36%	8.53%	8.04%	7.16%	7.08%	4.12%
Charlotte Eagles	10.11%	9.51%	9.25%	9.27%	9.03%	9.19%	8.59%	8.66%	8.07%	7.47%	6.46%	4.39%
Orlando City SC	7.81%	8.71%	9.41%	9.05%	8.76%	8.79%	9.07%	9.16%	8.95%	8.10%	7.03%	5.16%
FC New York	8.32%	8.78%	8.72%	8.95%	8.68%	8.90%	8.71%	8.65%	8.94%	8.08%	7.97%	5.30%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	8.57%	8.69%	8.87%	8.81%	8.34%	8.60%	8.72%	8.81%	8.82%	8.69%	7.74%	5.34%
Dayton Dutch Lions	5.76%	7.23%	7.34%	8.09%	8.12%	8.90%	9.08%	9.32%	8.85%	9.90%	9.99%	7.42%
Los Angeles Blues	3.53%	5.17%	5.87%	6.73%	8.16%	9.10%	9.46%	9.69%	10.63%	11.10%	10.36%	10.20%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.22%	0.42%	0.90%	1.24%	2.04%	2.62%	4.06%	5.64%	8.02%	12.56%	19.79%	42.49%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Richmond Kickers	23.93%	20.94%	18.92%	16.69%	19.52%
Wilmington Hammerheads	20.46%	20.41%	19.05%	17.86%	22.22%
Charleston Battery	19.61%	18.82%	19.02%	18.02%	24.53%
Charlotte Eagles	19.23%	19.26%	18.88%	18.30%	24.33%
Orlando City SC	16.01%	18.25%	19.53%	19.38%	26.83%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.76%	2.32%	4.60%	9.75%	82.57%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Harrisburg City Islanders	21.70%	18.44%	17.17%	15.67%	27.02%
Rochester Rhinos	21.64%	19.60%	17.12%	16.05%	25.59%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	17.69%	16.73%	17.16%	15.84%	32.58%
FC New York	17.40%	17.12%	17.09%	16.46%	31.93%
Dayton Dutch Lions	12.60%	15.66%	15.84%	17.33%	38.57%
Los Angeles Blues	8.97%	12.45%	15.62%	18.65%	44.31%

Points Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each division, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of points. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median points for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Richmond Kickers	80.48%	42.74%	21.96%	12.01%
Wilmington Hammerheads	77.78%	38.93%	19.75%	10.43%
Rochester Rhinos	74.41%	39.55%	20.78%	10.38%
Harrisburg City Islanders	72.98%	38.86%	20.89%	10.37%
Orlando City SC	73.17%	37.76%	18.95%	10.14%
Charleston Battery	75.47%	36.54%	17.88%	9.22%
Charlotte Eagles	75.67%	36.70%	18.23%	9.08%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	67.42%	33.49%	16.74%	7.78%
FC New York	68.07%	33.44%	16.39%	7.72%
Los Angeles Blues	55.69%	27.37%	13.25%	6.08%
Dayton Dutch Lions	61.43%	27.29%	11.95%	5.26%
Antigua Barracuda FC	17.43%	7.33%	3.23%	1.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		1.72%	1.61%	1.04%	1.71%	1.25%
Charleston Battery	2.15%		8.45%	7.92%	8.67%	9.35%
Charlotte Eagles	2.04%	8.78%		8.40%	8.61%	8.87%
Orlando City SC	1.54%	8.88%	9.08%		9.37%	8.89%
Richmond Kickers	2.23%	10.45%	10.38%	9.19%		10.49%
Wilmington Hammerheads	2.14%	9.10%	9.45%	8.86%	9.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions		5.63%	6.09%	4.22%	5.24%	6.11%
FC New York	6.87%		7.34%	5.27%	6.67%	7.29%
Harrisburg City Islanders	7.80%	8.13%		6.39%	8.37%	8.17%
Los Angeles Blues	4.51%	5.66%	5.50%		5.69%	6.01%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6.84%	6.73%	7.01%	5.63%		7.28%
Rochester Rhinos	8.12%	8.48%	8.18%	6.81%	7.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		0.46%	0.52%	0.67%	0.78%	0.80%
Charleston Battery	0.83%		3.97%	4.18%	4.59%	4.31%
Charlotte Eagles	0.68%	4.45%		4.16%	4.80%	4.14%
Orlando City SC	0.76%	4.09%	4.54%		5.13%	4.43%
Richmond Kickers	0.97%	5.04%	5.16%	5.29%		5.50%
Wilmington Hammerheads	0.86%	4.62%	4.28%	4.51%	5.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions		2.38%	2.79%	1.72%	2.26%	2.80%
FC New York	2.80%		3.67%	2.63%	3.50%	3.79%
Harrisburg City Islanders	3.51%	4.32%		3.41%	4.40%	5.25%
Los Angeles Blues	1.96%	2.52%	3.03%		2.56%	3.18%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3.00%	3.43%	3.67%	2.89%		3.75%
Rochester Rhinos	4.07%	4.40%	4.81%	3.47%	4.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC				0.31%	0.20%	0.46%	0.14%		0.20%		0.22%
Charleston Battery				1.27%	1.52%	1.65%	1.26%		1.63%		1.89%
Charlotte Eagles				1.23%	1.38%	1.73%	1.20%		1.54%		2.00%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.22%	0.85%	1.13%					0.92%		1.09%		1.05%
FC New York	0.30%	1.47%	1.35%					1.52%		1.62%		1.46%
Harrisburg City Islanders	0.33%	1.78%	2.00%					1.86%		2.28%		2.12%
Los Angeles Blues	0.09%	1.14%	1.27%					1.18%		1.24%		1.16%
Orlando City SC				1.26%	1.81%	1.97%	1.47%		1.83%		1.80%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.32%	1.47%	1.36%					1.52%		1.59%		1.52%
Richmond Kickers				1.38%	1.84%	2.64%	1.65%		1.90%		2.60%
Rochester Rhinos	0.44%	1.95%	2.04%					1.81%		2.13%		2.01%
Wilmington Hammerheads				1.24%	1.92%	2.07%	1.45%		1.86%		1.89%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship	Actual Outcome
Orlando City SC	62.97%	37.96%	23.40%	Eliminated in USL Championship
Harrisburg City Islanders	59.21%	28.79%	11.53%	Won USL Championship

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		37.03%
Orlando City SC	62.97%
Richmond Kickers				41.84%
Wilmington Hammerheads			58.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Harrisburg City Islanders		59.21%
Los Angeles Blues	40.79%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds				38.64%
Rochester Rhinos			61.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery			5.63%	8.59%
Orlando City SC			15.80%	22.16%
Richmond Kickers	9.63%	10.78%
Wilmington Hammerheads	13.18%	14.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Harrisburg City Islanders			13.93%	14.86%
Los Angeles Blues			9.58%	9.90%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9.03%	6.10%
Rochester Rhinos	21.39%	15.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		1.61%	1.70%		1.16%		2.35%
Harrisburg City Islanders	2.32%			4.21%		2.18%		2.82%
Los Angeles Blues	1.02%			2.92%		1.66%		2.24%
Orlando City SC		7.14%	4.44%		3.52%		8.30%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.75%			2.10%		1.39%		1.51%
Richmond Kickers		3.59%	2.39%		2.06%		4.22%
Rochester Rhinos	3.31%			5.33%		2.92%		4.28%
Wilmington Hammerheads		4.92%	3.11%		2.64%		5.89%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Orlando City SC 23.40% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.97%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

58.38%

Win Prob

60.90%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

35.47%

Win Prob

60.90%

Wilmington Hammerheads 16.56% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.16%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

51.92%

Win Prob

39.10%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

35.57%

Win Prob

57.92%

Rochester Rhinos 15.84% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.36%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

58.44%

Win Prob

59.01%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

33.65%

Win Prob

39.10%

Richmond Kickers 12.26% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.84%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

52.82%

Win Prob

40.56%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

34.42%

Win Prob

59.10%

Harrisburg City Islanders 11.53% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Los Angeles Blues

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.21%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

51.62%

Win Prob

40.99%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

36.51%

Win Prob

37.09%

Los Angeles Blues 7.84% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.79%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

50.82%

Win Prob

39.43%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

37.24%

Win Prob

39.67%

Charleston Battery 6.82% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.03%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

60.41%

Win Prob

39.46%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

34.46%

Win Prob

41.52%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 5.75% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.64%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

59.68%

Win Prob

39.33%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

36.52%

Win Prob

37.37%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2011-04-17	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1500.00	1500.00	47.48%	22.30%	30.22%	-1.52	0
2011-05-01	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1498.48	1501.52	29.99%	21.97%	48.04%	+1.62	3
2011-05-14	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1500.10	1499.23	30.29%	22.39%	47.32%	-2.11	3
2011-05-20	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1497.99	1496.13	30.36%	22.49%	47.15%	-2.13	3
2011-06-03	Rochester Rhinos	L 1-2	1495.86	1500.02	46.73%	22.73%	30.54%	-1.50	3
2011-06-05	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1494.36	1501.52	46.18%	23.03%	30.79%	-0.09	4
2011-06-10	@ Orlando City SC	W 2-1	1494.27	1513.74	28.86%	20.02%	51.12%	+1.59	7
2011-06-24	Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1495.86	1512.01	44.59%	23.85%	31.56%	-2.53	7
2011-06-26	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1493.33	1514.54	43.70%	24.26%	32.03%	-1.44	7
2011-07-01	@ FC New York	L 0-2	1491.89	1494.20	30.04%	22.05%	47.91%	-2.10	7
2011-07-03	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1489.79	1487.12	30.43%	22.58%	47.00%	-2.13	7
2011-07-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1487.66	1501.98	44.91%	23.69%	31.40%	-1.55	7
2011-07-10	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-3	1486.11	1503.54	44.36%	23.96%	31.68%	-1.39	7
2011-07-16	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1484.72	1513.20	28.30%	18.86%	52.83%	-1.01	7
2011-07-29	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1483.71	1504.65	28.77%	19.84%	51.40%	+1.59	10
2011-07-31	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1485.30	1503.06	28.97%	20.23%	50.79%	-0.99	10
2011-08-02	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1484.31	1504.05	28.84%	19.99%	51.17%	+0.17	11
2011-08-07	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-0	1484.48	1502.86	44.19%	24.04%	31.77%	+3.26	14
2011-04-09	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1500.00	1500.00	47.48%	22.30%	30.22%	+1.12	3
2011-04-16	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-1	1501.12	1500.00	30.31%	22.41%	47.28%	+1.52	6
2011-04-23	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1502.64	1504.27	30.10%	22.12%	47.78%	-1.06	6
2011-04-29	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1501.58	1497.13	30.57%	22.76%	46.67%	+1.51	9
2011-04-30	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1503.09	1498.25	48.38%	21.77%	29.86%	-0.15	10
2011-05-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1502.94	1498.41	30.57%	22.77%	46.66%	+0.13	11
2011-05-07	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1503.07	1499.22	30.52%	22.70%	46.78%	-1.14	11
2011-05-13	FC New York	L 0-1	1501.93	1495.43	48.68%	21.58%	29.74%	-1.63	11
2011-05-21	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1500.30	1503.72	29.96%	21.92%	48.11%	-3.03	11
2011-05-24	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1497.27	1514.71	44.36%	23.96%	31.68%	+1.11	14
2011-05-28	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1498.38	1497.43	47.66%	22.19%	30.15%	+1.06	17
2011-06-03	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1499.44	1494.38	30.62%	22.82%	46.56%	+0.11	18
2011-06-04	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1499.55	1498.01	30.34%	22.46%	47.20%	-1.12	18
2011-06-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1498.43	1482.62	50.43%	20.47%	29.10%	+1.06	21
2011-06-24	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1499.49	1503.40	29.93%	21.87%	48.20%	+3.06	24
2011-06-25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1502.55	1484.03	50.94%	20.14%	28.92%	-3.17	24
2011-07-01	Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1499.38	1502.25	46.96%	22.60%	30.44%	-0.13	25
2011-07-09	Orlando City SC	W 1-0	1499.25	1517.42	44.23%	24.02%	31.75%	+1.19	28
2011-07-14	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1500.44	1504.92	46.67%	22.76%	30.57%	+1.07	31
2011-07-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1501.51	1473.36	32.72%	24.76%	42.52%	+0.05	32
2011-07-30	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1501.56	1511.21	45.74%	23.27%	30.99%	-1.57	32
2011-08-03	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1499.99	1517.26	29.00%	20.29%	50.70%	-1.06	32
2011-08-06	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1498.93	1518.31	28.87%	20.03%	51.10%	-0.98	32
2011-08-12	Charlotte Eagles	W 4-3	1497.95	1505.10	46.19%	23.03%	30.79%	+1.00	35
2011-04-09	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1500.00	1500.00	30.22%	22.30%	47.48%	-1.12	0
2011-04-16	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1498.88	1500.98	47.10%	22.52%	30.38%	-1.60	0
2011-04-23	FC New York	T 0-0	1497.28	1496.91	47.55%	22.26%	30.19%	-0.15	1
2011-04-29	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1497.13	1501.58	46.67%	22.76%	30.57%	-1.50	1
2011-05-12	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1495.63	1499.90	29.90%	21.83%	48.27%	-1.04	1
2011-05-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1494.59	1500.94	29.75%	21.60%	48.66%	+1.54	4
2011-05-20	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1496.13	1497.99	47.15%	22.49%	30.36%	+2.13	7
2011-05-28	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1498.26	1487.11	31.12%	23.41%	45.47%	+0.10	8
2011-06-02	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1498.36	1511.58	29.27%	20.79%	49.94%	+0.17	9
2011-06-11	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-0	1498.53	1506.40	46.06%	23.10%	30.85%	+3.15	12
2011-06-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1501.68	1481.56	51.24%	19.94%	28.82%	+1.97	15
2011-06-24	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1503.65	1486.02	50.77%	20.25%	28.98%	+1.99	18
2011-07-02	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1505.64	1503.82	30.36%	22.49%	47.15%	-4.03	18
2011-07-04	@ FC New York	W 3-1	1501.61	1496.30	30.64%	22.85%	46.52%	+2.59	21
2011-07-08	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1504.20	1513.25	29.56%	21.28%	49.16%	+1.56	24
2011-07-09	Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1505.76	1511.70	46.40%	22.91%	30.69%	-1.50	24
2011-07-15	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1504.26	1507.72	46.85%	22.66%	30.49%	-0.12	25
2011-07-22	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1504.14	1505.70	47.20%	22.46%	30.34%	+1.12	28
2011-07-23	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1505.26	1504.57	30.27%	22.37%	47.36%	-3.07	28
2011-07-29	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1502.19	1511.13	45.86%	23.20%	30.93%	-0.08	29
2011-08-05	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 3-0	1502.11	1512.78	29.44%	21.09%	49.46%	+4.52	32
2011-08-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 2-2	1506.63	1491.56	31.47%	23.76%	44.77%	+0.07	33
2011-08-10	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1506.70	1508.61	47.14%	22.50%	30.37%	-1.60	33
2011-08-12	@ Charleston Battery	L 3-4	1505.10	1497.95	30.79%	23.03%	46.19%	-1.00	33
2011-04-16	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1500.00	1501.12	47.28%	22.41%	30.31%	-1.52	0
2011-04-23	Rochester Rhinos	L 2-3	1498.48	1497.78	47.61%	22.22%	30.17%	-1.44	0
2011-04-30	Richmond Kickers	L 0-6	1497.04	1505.32	45.98%	23.14%	30.88%	-8.27	0
2011-05-07	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1488.77	1504.08	44.73%	23.78%	31.49%	-1.55	0
2011-05-20	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1487.22	1499.40	45.29%	23.50%	31.21%	-0.11	1
2011-05-28	Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1487.11	1498.26	45.47%	23.41%	31.12%	-0.10	2
2011-06-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1487.01	1493.13	46.37%	22.93%	30.70%	+1.08	5
2011-06-08	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-4	1488.09	1499.13	29.42%	21.05%	49.53%	-2.49	5
2011-06-10	@ FC New York	L 0-3	1485.60	1494.26	29.58%	21.33%	49.09%	-2.98	5
2011-06-17	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1482.62	1498.43	29.10%	20.47%	50.43%	-1.06	5
2011-06-18	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1481.56	1501.68	28.82%	19.94%	51.24%	-1.97	5
2011-06-25	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1479.59	1507.01	28.37%	19.00%	52.63%	-1.02	5
2011-07-04	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1478.57	1511.63	28.03%	18.26%	53.71%	-1.63	5
2011-07-08	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1476.94	1517.64	27.59%	17.23%	55.18%	+0.23	6
2011-07-10	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1477.17	1507.85	28.17%	18.57%	53.26%	+0.14	7
2011-07-15	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1477.31	1500.74	28.61%	19.52%	51.87%	+0.17	8
2011-07-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-4	1477.48	1500.57	28.63%	19.56%	51.81%	-2.38	8
2011-07-20	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-3	1475.10	1490.45	29.13%	20.53%	50.34%	-1.74	8
2011-07-23	Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1473.36	1501.51	42.52%	24.76%	32.72%	-0.05	9
2011-07-27	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-3	1473.31	1509.01	41.26%	25.21%	33.53%	-1.32	9
2011-07-31	FC New York	W 2-0	1471.99	1485.09	45.12%	23.59%	31.29%	+2.21	12
2011-08-06	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-3	1474.20	1510.37	27.85%	17.84%	54.31%	-2.70	12
2011-08-10	FC New York	L 0-5	1471.50	1484.23	45.19%	23.55%	31.26%	-6.89	12
2011-08-13	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1464.61	1509.67	39.76%	25.62%	34.62%	-1.35	12
2011-04-09	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1500.00	1497.89	30.38%	22.52%	47.10%	-3.09	0
2011-04-23	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1496.91	1497.28	30.19%	22.26%	47.55%	+0.14	1
2011-04-30	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1497.05	1502.58	46.48%	22.87%	30.65%	-1.50	1
2011-05-07	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1495.55	1498.88	46.88%	22.64%	30.48%	-0.12	2
2011-05-13	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1495.43	1501.93	29.74%	21.58%	48.68%	+1.64	5
2011-05-14	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1497.07	1501.92	29.86%	21.76%	48.38%	-1.80	5
2011-05-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1495.27	1497.18	30.07%	22.09%	47.84%	-2.10	5
2011-05-28	@ Richmond Kickers	T 2-2	1493.17	1511.45	28.94%	20.17%	50.89%	+0.12	6
2011-05-30	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1493.29	1501.10	46.07%	23.09%	30.84%	+1.09	9
2011-06-03	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1494.38	1499.44	46.56%	22.82%	30.62%	-0.12	10
2011-06-10	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-0	1494.26	1485.60	49.09%	21.33%	29.58%	+2.98	13
2011-06-12	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1497.24	1511.33	44.95%	23.67%	31.38%	-2.94	13
2011-06-24	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1494.30	1512.60	44.21%	24.03%	31.76%	-0.10	14
2011-07-01	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1494.20	1491.89	47.91%	22.05%	30.04%	+2.10	17
2011-07-04	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-3	1496.30	1501.61	46.52%	22.85%	30.64%	-2.60	17
2011-07-08	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-3	1493.70	1507.51	29.23%	20.72%	50.05%	-1.75	17
2011-07-09	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1491.95	1489.25	30.43%	22.58%	46.99%	-1.06	17
2011-07-16	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1490.89	1490.32	47.59%	22.23%	30.18%	-0.13	18
2011-07-20	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-5	1490.76	1505.98	29.14%	20.55%	50.32%	-3.17	18
2011-07-29	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1487.59	1507.65	43.90%	24.17%	31.92%	-2.50	18
2011-07-31	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-2	1485.09	1471.99	31.29%	23.59%	45.12%	-2.21	18
2011-08-05	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1482.88	1508.81	28.46%	19.20%	52.35%	+0.20	19
2011-08-07	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1483.08	1508.26	43.02%	24.56%	32.42%	+1.15	22
2011-08-10	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 5-0	1484.23	1471.50	31.26%	23.55%	45.19%	+6.89	25
2011-04-23	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1500.00	1498.95	30.30%	22.41%	47.29%	-1.12	0
2011-05-07	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1498.88	1495.55	30.48%	22.64%	46.88%	+0.12	1
2011-05-10	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1499.00	1500.35	47.24%	22.44%	30.32%	+1.12	4
2011-05-14	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1500.12	1514.61	44.88%	23.71%	31.41%	-0.10	5
2011-05-22	Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1500.02	1506.85	46.24%	23.00%	30.76%	-2.59	5
2011-05-28	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1497.43	1498.38	30.15%	22.19%	47.66%	-1.05	5
2011-05-31	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 4-2	1496.38	1494.75	47.78%	22.12%	30.10%	+1.63	8
2011-06-04	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1498.01	1499.55	47.20%	22.46%	30.34%	+1.12	11
2011-06-08	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-1	1499.13	1488.09	49.53%	21.05%	29.42%	+2.49	14
2011-06-11	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1501.62	1501.61	30.22%	22.30%	47.48%	-1.12	14
2011-06-17	@ Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1500.50	1514.26	29.24%	20.72%	50.04%	+1.67	17
2011-06-24	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1502.17	1503.91	30.09%	22.11%	47.80%	+0.13	18
2011-06-26	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1502.30	1503.78	30.11%	22.14%	47.76%	+1.52	21
2011-07-02	Charlotte Eagles	W 4-0	1503.82	1505.64	47.15%	22.49%	30.36%	+4.03	24
2011-07-10	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1507.85	1477.17	53.26%	18.57%	28.17%	-0.13	25
2011-07-15	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1507.72	1504.26	30.49%	22.66%	46.85%	+0.12	26
2011-07-16	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1507.84	1503.85	30.53%	22.71%	46.76%	-1.86	26
2011-07-20	FC New York	W 5-1	1505.98	1490.76	50.32%	20.55%	29.14%	+3.17	29
2011-07-23	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1509.15	1504.52	48.34%	21.79%	29.87%	-0.14	30
2011-07-27	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-2	1509.01	1473.31	33.53%	25.21%	41.26%	+1.32	33
2011-07-30	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1510.33	1510.15	47.52%	22.28%	30.21%	-1.52	33
2011-08-05	FC New York	T 0-0	1508.81	1482.88	52.35%	19.20%	28.46%	-0.20	34
2011-08-10	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1508.61	1506.70	30.37%	22.50%	47.14%	+1.61	37
2011-08-12	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1510.22	1519.30	29.56%	21.28%	49.16%	-3.89	37
2011-04-17	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1500.00	1500.00	30.22%	22.30%	47.48%	+1.52	3
2011-05-01	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-1	1501.52	1498.48	48.04%	21.97%	29.99%	-1.62	3
2011-05-12	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1499.90	1495.63	48.27%	21.83%	29.90%	+1.04	6
2011-05-14	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1500.94	1494.59	48.66%	21.60%	29.75%	-1.54	6
2011-05-20	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1499.40	1487.22	31.21%	23.50%	45.29%	+0.10	7
2011-05-22	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1499.50	1499.28	30.24%	22.32%	47.44%	+4.41	10
2011-06-24	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1503.91	1502.17	47.80%	22.11%	30.09%	-0.13	11
2011-06-26	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1503.78	1502.30	47.76%	22.14%	30.11%	-1.53	11
2011-07-01	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1502.25	1499.38	30.44%	22.60%	46.96%	+0.14	12
2011-07-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-4	1502.39	1500.33	30.38%	22.51%	47.11%	-1.65	12
2011-07-15	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1500.74	1477.31	51.87%	19.52%	28.61%	-0.17	13
2011-07-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-1	1500.57	1477.48	51.81%	19.56%	28.63%	+2.39	16
2011-07-22	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1502.96	1514.21	29.40%	21.02%	49.57%	+1.56	19
2011-07-23	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1504.52	1509.15	29.87%	21.79%	48.34%	+0.13	20
2011-07-29	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1504.65	1483.71	51.40%	19.84%	28.77%	-1.59	20
2011-07-31	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1503.06	1485.30	50.79%	20.23%	28.97%	+0.99	23
2011-08-02	Antigua Barracuda FC	T 1-1	1504.05	1484.31	51.17%	19.99%	28.84%	-0.16	24
2011-08-05	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1503.89	1511.67	29.65%	21.43%	48.92%	-1.03	24
2011-08-07	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-3	1502.86	1484.48	31.77%	24.04%	44.19%	-3.26	24
2011-08-12	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1499.60	1516.11	44.52%	23.88%	31.60%	-0.11	25
2011-08-14	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1499.49	1516.21	44.48%	23.90%	31.61%	-0.10	26
2011-04-02	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1500.00	1500.00	30.22%	22.30%	47.48%	-2.11	0
2011-04-09	FC New York	W 3-0	1497.89	1500.00	47.10%	22.52%	30.38%	+3.09	3
2011-04-16	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1500.98	1498.88	30.38%	22.52%	47.10%	+1.60	6
2011-04-30	@ FC New York	W 2-1	1502.58	1497.05	30.65%	22.87%	46.48%	+1.50	9
2011-05-07	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1504.08	1488.77	31.49%	23.78%	44.73%	+1.55	12
2011-05-14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1505.63	1498.27	48.84%	21.48%	29.68%	+1.09	15
2011-05-20	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1506.72	1501.35	30.64%	22.85%	46.51%	+0.13	16
2011-05-22	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1506.85	1500.02	30.76%	23.00%	46.24%	+2.59	19
2011-05-25	Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1509.44	1513.59	46.73%	22.73%	30.54%	+2.14	22
2011-06-02	Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1511.58	1498.36	49.94%	20.79%	29.27%	-0.17	23
2011-06-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-2	1511.41	1506.98	30.57%	22.76%	46.68%	+2.33	26
2011-06-10	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1513.74	1494.27	51.12%	20.02%	28.86%	-1.59	26
2011-06-18	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1512.15	1503.25	49.13%	21.30%	29.57%	-0.14	27
2011-06-24	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1512.01	1495.86	31.56%	23.85%	44.59%	+2.53	30
2011-06-26	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1514.54	1493.33	32.03%	24.26%	43.70%	+1.44	33
2011-07-01	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1515.98	1487.20	32.79%	24.80%	42.41%	+0.08	34
2011-07-03	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1516.06	1509.10	30.77%	23.01%	46.22%	+1.58	37
2011-07-08	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1517.64	1476.94	55.18%	17.23%	27.59%	-0.22	38
2011-07-09	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1517.42	1499.25	31.75%	24.02%	44.23%	-1.19	38
2011-07-16	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1516.23	1509.26	48.77%	21.52%	29.70%	+1.03	41
2011-08-03	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1517.26	1499.99	50.70%	20.29%	29.00%	+1.05	44
2011-08-06	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1518.31	1498.93	51.10%	20.03%	28.87%	+0.99	47
2011-08-12	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-0	1519.30	1510.22	49.16%	21.28%	29.56%	+3.88	50
2011-04-09	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1500.00	1502.11	30.06%	22.07%	47.87%	-1.05	0
2011-04-23	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 1-0	1498.95	1500.00	47.29%	22.41%	30.30%	+1.13	3
2011-04-29	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1500.08	1501.12	30.14%	22.18%	47.68%	-1.83	3
2011-04-30	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1498.25	1503.09	29.86%	21.77%	48.38%	+0.16	4
2011-05-06	Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1498.41	1502.94	46.66%	22.77%	30.57%	-0.14	5
2011-05-14	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1498.27	1505.63	29.68%	21.48%	48.84%	-1.09	5
2011-05-21	FC New York	W 2-0	1497.18	1495.27	47.84%	22.09%	30.07%	+2.10	8
2011-05-22	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1499.28	1499.50	47.44%	22.32%	30.24%	-4.41	8
2011-05-28	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1494.87	1506.87	45.32%	23.49%	31.20%	-0.12	9
2011-05-31	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-4	1494.75	1496.38	30.10%	22.12%	47.78%	-1.62	9
2011-06-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1493.13	1487.01	30.70%	22.93%	46.37%	-1.08	9
2011-06-10	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1492.05	1504.65	29.31%	20.86%	49.82%	-1.75	9
2011-06-17	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-3	1490.30	1502.73	45.24%	23.53%	31.23%	-4.28	9
2011-06-24	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1486.02	1503.65	28.98%	20.25%	50.77%	-1.99	9
2011-06-25	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-0	1484.03	1502.55	28.92%	20.14%	50.94%	+3.17	12
2011-07-01	Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1487.20	1515.98	42.41%	24.80%	32.79%	-0.08	13
2011-07-03	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1487.12	1489.79	47.00%	22.58%	30.43%	+2.13	16
2011-07-09	FC New York	W 2-1	1489.25	1491.95	46.99%	22.58%	30.43%	+1.07	19
2011-07-16	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1490.32	1490.89	30.18%	22.23%	47.59%	+0.13	20
2011-07-20	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-1	1490.45	1475.10	50.34%	20.53%	29.13%	+1.73	23
2011-07-22	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-3	1492.18	1508.23	29.08%	20.45%	50.47%	-2.90	23
2011-07-30	Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1489.28	1512.66	43.33%	24.43%	32.24%	+2.28	26
2011-08-06	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1491.56	1506.63	44.77%	23.76%	31.47%	-0.07	27
2011-08-13	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1491.49	1507.11	29.11%	20.50%	50.39%	-1.06	27
2011-04-02	Orlando City SC	W 2-0	1500.00	1500.00	47.48%	22.30%	30.22%	+2.11	3
2011-04-09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1502.11	1500.00	47.87%	22.07%	30.06%	+1.05	6
2011-04-15	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1503.16	1500.00	48.07%	21.95%	29.98%	+1.11	9
2011-04-23	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1504.27	1502.64	47.78%	22.12%	30.10%	+1.05	12
2011-04-30	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 6-0	1505.32	1497.04	30.88%	23.14%	45.98%	+8.27	15
2011-05-07	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1513.59	1502.94	49.46%	21.10%	29.45%	+1.02	18
2011-05-14	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1514.61	1500.12	31.41%	23.71%	44.88%	+0.10	19
2011-05-24	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1514.71	1497.27	31.68%	23.96%	44.36%	-1.12	19
2011-05-25	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1513.59	1509.44	30.54%	22.73%	46.73%	-2.14	19
2011-05-28	FC New York	T 2-2	1511.45	1493.17	50.89%	20.17%	28.94%	-0.12	20
2011-06-12	@ FC New York	W 2-0	1511.33	1497.24	31.38%	23.67%	44.95%	+2.93	23
2011-06-17	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1514.26	1500.50	50.04%	20.72%	29.24%	-1.66	23
2011-06-24	@ FC New York	T 0-0	1512.60	1494.30	31.76%	24.03%	44.21%	+0.10	24
2011-07-01	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-2	1512.70	1508.03	30.59%	22.78%	46.63%	-1.07	24
2011-07-04	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-1	1511.63	1478.57	53.71%	18.26%	28.03%	+1.62	27
2011-07-08	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1513.25	1504.20	49.16%	21.28%	29.56%	-1.55	27
2011-07-09	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1511.70	1505.76	30.69%	22.91%	46.40%	+1.50	30
2011-07-16	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1513.20	1484.72	52.83%	18.86%	28.30%	+1.01	33
2011-07-22	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1514.21	1502.96	49.57%	21.02%	29.40%	-1.55	33
2011-07-30	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1512.66	1489.28	32.24%	24.43%	43.33%	-2.29	33
2011-08-06	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-0	1510.37	1474.20	54.31%	17.84%	27.85%	+2.70	36
2011-08-10	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1513.07	1512.70	30.25%	22.34%	47.42%	+3.04	39
2011-08-12	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1516.11	1499.60	31.60%	23.88%	44.52%	+0.10	40
2011-08-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1516.21	1499.49	31.61%	23.90%	44.48%	+0.11	41
2011-04-15	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1500.00	1503.16	29.98%	21.95%	48.07%	-1.11	0
2011-04-17	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1498.89	1500.00	30.14%	22.18%	47.69%	-1.11	0
2011-04-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-2	1497.78	1498.48	30.17%	22.22%	47.61%	+1.44	3
2011-05-07	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1499.22	1503.07	46.78%	22.70%	30.52%	+1.13	6
2011-05-10	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1500.35	1499.00	30.32%	22.44%	47.24%	-1.12	6
2011-05-14	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1499.23	1500.10	47.32%	22.39%	30.29%	+2.12	9
2011-05-20	Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1501.35	1506.72	46.51%	22.85%	30.64%	-0.13	10
2011-05-27	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1501.22	1506.75	46.48%	22.87%	30.65%	-0.12	11
2011-05-30	@ FC New York	L 1-2	1501.10	1493.29	30.84%	23.09%	46.07%	-1.08	11
2011-06-03	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1500.02	1495.86	30.54%	22.73%	46.73%	+1.50	14
2011-06-05	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	T 2-2	1501.52	1494.36	30.79%	23.03%	46.18%	+0.09	15
2011-06-11	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 1-0	1501.61	1501.62	47.48%	22.30%	30.22%	+1.12	18
2011-06-17	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1502.73	1490.30	31.23%	23.53%	45.24%	+4.28	21
2011-06-25	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1507.01	1479.59	52.63%	19.00%	28.37%	+1.02	24
2011-07-01	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1508.03	1512.70	46.63%	22.78%	30.59%	+1.07	27
2011-07-03	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1509.10	1516.06	46.22%	23.01%	30.77%	-1.59	27
2011-07-08	FC New York	W 3-1	1507.51	1493.70	50.05%	20.72%	29.23%	+1.75	30
2011-07-16	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1509.26	1516.23	29.70%	21.52%	48.77%	-1.03	30
2011-07-22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1508.23	1492.18	50.47%	20.45%	29.08%	+2.90	33
2011-07-29	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1511.13	1502.19	30.93%	23.20%	45.86%	+0.08	34
2011-07-30	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1511.21	1501.56	30.99%	23.27%	45.74%	+1.57	37
2011-08-05	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1512.78	1502.11	49.46%	21.09%	29.44%	-4.52	37
2011-08-07	@ FC New York	L 1-2	1508.26	1483.08	32.42%	24.56%	43.02%	-1.15	37
2011-08-13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1507.11	1491.49	50.39%	20.50%	29.11%	+1.06	40
2011-04-17	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1500.00	1498.89	47.69%	22.18%	30.14%	+1.12	3
2011-04-29	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1501.12	1500.08	47.68%	22.18%	30.14%	+1.82	6
2011-05-07	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1502.94	1513.59	29.45%	21.10%	49.46%	-1.02	6
2011-05-14	FC New York	W 3-1	1501.92	1497.07	48.38%	21.76%	29.86%	+1.80	9
2011-05-21	Charleston Battery	W 3-0	1503.72	1500.30	48.11%	21.92%	29.96%	+3.03	12
2011-05-27	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1506.75	1501.22	30.65%	22.87%	46.48%	+0.12	13
2011-05-28	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1506.87	1494.87	31.20%	23.49%	45.32%	+0.11	14
2011-06-04	Orlando City SC	L 2-4	1506.98	1511.41	46.68%	22.76%	30.57%	-2.33	14
2011-06-10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1504.65	1492.05	49.82%	20.86%	29.31%	+1.75	17
2011-06-11	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1506.40	1498.53	30.85%	23.10%	46.06%	-3.15	17
2011-06-18	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1503.25	1512.15	29.57%	21.30%	49.13%	+0.15	18
2011-06-24	Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1503.40	1499.49	48.20%	21.87%	29.93%	-3.07	18
2011-07-02	Los Angeles Blues	W 4-2	1500.33	1502.39	47.11%	22.51%	30.38%	+1.65	21
2011-07-08	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1501.98	1487.66	31.40%	23.69%	44.91%	+1.56	24
2011-07-10	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-2	1503.54	1486.11	31.68%	23.96%	44.36%	+1.38	27
2011-07-14	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1504.92	1500.44	30.57%	22.76%	46.67%	-1.07	27
2011-07-16	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1503.85	1507.84	46.76%	22.71%	30.53%	+1.85	30
2011-07-22	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1505.70	1504.14	30.34%	22.46%	47.20%	-1.13	30
2011-07-23	Charlotte Eagles	W 3-0	1504.57	1505.26	47.36%	22.37%	30.27%	+3.08	33
2011-07-29	@ FC New York	W 3-1	1507.65	1487.59	31.92%	24.17%	43.90%	+2.50	36
2011-07-30	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1510.15	1510.33	30.21%	22.28%	47.52%	+1.52	39
2011-08-05	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1511.67	1503.89	48.92%	21.43%	29.65%	+1.03	42
2011-08-10	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1512.70	1513.07	47.42%	22.34%	30.25%	-3.03	42
2011-08-13	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-1	1509.67	1464.61	34.62%	25.62%	39.76%	+1.35	45

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2011-08-20	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1498.95	1523.18	37.68%	0.00%	62.32%	-1.68	0-1
2011-08-19	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-1	1506.33	1499.39	59.96%	0.00%	40.04%	+1.79	1-0
2011-08-26	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1508.12	1511.94	40.48%	0.00%	59.52%	+1.53	2-0
2011-09-03	@ Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1509.65	1527.84	38.50%	0.00%	61.50%	+0.12	2-0
2011-08-19	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-3	1499.39	1506.33	40.04%	0.00%	59.96%	-1.79	0-1
2011-08-20	Charleston Battery	W 3-1	1523.18	1498.95	62.32%	0.00%	37.68%	+1.68	1-0
2011-08-27	Richmond Kickers	W 3-0	1524.86	1516.45	60.16%	0.00%	39.84%	+2.98	2-0
2011-09-03	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1527.84	1509.65	61.50%	0.00%	38.50%	-0.12	2-0
2011-08-19	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-4	1490.43	1508.17	38.56%	0.00%	61.44%	-3.77	0-1
2011-08-19	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1516.32	1511.02	41.75%	0.00%	58.25%	+0.13	0-0
2011-08-27	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1516.45	1524.86	39.84%	0.00%	60.16%	-2.98	0-1
2011-08-19	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 4-0	1508.17	1490.43	61.44%	0.00%	38.56%	+3.77	1-0
2011-08-26	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1511.94	1508.12	59.52%	0.00%	40.48%	-1.53	1-1
2011-08-19	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1511.02	1516.32	58.25%	0.00%	41.75%	-0.13	0-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-07-29	28.77%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1483.71	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1504.65	1
2	2011-06-10	28.86%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1494.27	2	@ Orlando City SC	1513.74	1
3	2011-06-25	28.92%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1484.03	2	@ Charleston Battery	1502.55	0
4	2011-06-17	29.24%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1500.50	1	@ Richmond Kickers	1514.26	0
5	2011-07-22	29.40%	Los Angeles Blues	1502.96	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1514.21	1
6	2011-08-05	29.44%	Charlotte Eagles	1502.11	3	@ Rochester Rhinos	1512.78	0
7	2011-07-08	29.56%	Charlotte Eagles	1504.20	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1513.25	1
8	2011-05-13	29.74%	FC New York	1495.43	1	@ Charleston Battery	1501.93	0
9	2011-05-14	29.75%	Charlotte Eagles	1494.59	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1500.94	1
10	2011-06-24	29.93%	Charleston Battery	1499.49	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1503.40	0
11	2011-05-01	29.99%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1498.48	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1501.52	0
12	2011-06-26	30.11%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1502.30	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1503.78	1
13	2011-04-23	30.17%	Rochester Rhinos	1497.78	3	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1498.48	2
14	2011-07-30	30.21%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1510.15	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1510.33	1
15	2011-04-17	30.22%	Los Angeles Blues	1500.00	2	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1500.00	1
16	2011-05-22	30.24%	Los Angeles Blues	1499.50	3	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1499.28	0
17	2011-08-10	30.25%	Richmond Kickers	1513.07	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1512.70	0
18	2011-04-16	30.31%	Charleston Battery	1501.12	2	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1500.00	1
19	2011-08-10	30.37%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1508.61	1	@ Charlotte Eagles	1506.70	0
20	2011-04-16	30.38%	Orlando City SC	1500.98	1	@ Charlotte Eagles	1498.88	0
21	2011-06-03	30.54%	Rochester Rhinos	1500.02	2	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1495.86	1
22	2011-04-29	30.57%	Charleston Battery	1501.58	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1497.13	1
23	2011-06-04	30.57%	Orlando City SC	1511.41	4	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1506.98	2
24	2011-07-04	30.64%	Charlotte Eagles	1501.61	3	@ FC New York	1496.30	1
25	2011-04-30	30.65%	Orlando City SC	1502.58	2	@ FC New York	1497.05	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-04-30	8.27	Richmond Kickers	6	1505.32	30.88%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1497.04	45.98%	23.14%
2	2011-08-10	6.89	FC New York	5	1484.23	31.26%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1471.50	45.19%	23.55%
3	2011-08-05	4.52	Charlotte Eagles	3	1502.11	29.44%	@ Rochester Rhinos	0	1512.78	49.46%	21.09%
4	2011-05-22	4.41	Los Angeles Blues	3	1499.50	30.24%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1499.28	47.44%	22.32%
5	2011-06-17	4.28	Rochester Rhinos	3	1502.73	31.23%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1490.30	45.24%	23.53%
6	2011-07-02	4.03	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	4	1503.82	47.15%	Charlotte Eagles	0	1505.64	30.36%	22.49%
7	2011-08-12	3.89	@ Orlando City SC	4	1519.30	49.16%	Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1510.22	29.56%	21.28%
8	2011-08-19 *	3.77	@ Rochester Rhinos	4	1508.17	61.44%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1490.43	38.56%	0.00%
9	2011-08-07	3.26	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	3	1484.48	44.19%	Los Angeles Blues	0	1502.86	31.77%	24.04%
10	2011-06-25	3.17	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2	1484.03	28.92%	@ Charleston Battery	0	1502.55	50.94%	20.14%
11	2011-07-20	3.17	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	5	1505.98	50.32%	FC New York	1	1490.76	29.14%	20.55%
12	2011-06-11	3.15	@ Charlotte Eagles	3	1498.53	46.06%	Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1506.40	30.85%	23.10%
13	2011-04-09	3.09	@ Orlando City SC	3	1497.89	47.10%	FC New York	0	1500.00	30.38%	22.52%
14	2011-07-23	3.08	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1504.57	47.36%	Charlotte Eagles	0	1505.26	30.27%	22.37%
15	2011-06-24	3.07	Charleston Battery	2	1499.49	29.93%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1503.40	48.20%	21.87%
16	2011-08-10	3.04	Richmond Kickers	2	1513.07	30.25%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1512.70	47.42%	22.34%
17	2011-05-21	3.03	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1503.72	48.11%	Charleston Battery	0	1500.30	29.96%	21.92%
18	2011-06-10	2.98	@ FC New York	3	1494.26	49.09%	Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1485.60	29.58%	21.33%
19	2011-08-27 *	2.98	@ Orlando City SC	3	1524.86	60.16%	Richmond Kickers	0	1516.45	39.84%	0.00%
20	2011-06-12	2.94	Richmond Kickers	2	1511.33	31.38%	@ FC New York	0	1497.24	44.95%	23.67%
21	2011-07-22	2.90	@ Rochester Rhinos	3	1508.23	50.47%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1492.18	29.08%	20.45%
22	2011-08-06	2.70	@ Richmond Kickers	3	1510.37	54.31%	Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1474.20	27.85%	17.84%
23	2011-07-04	2.60	Charlotte Eagles	3	1501.61	30.64%	@ FC New York	1	1496.30	46.52%	22.85%
24	2011-05-22	2.59	Orlando City SC	3	1506.85	30.76%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1	1500.02	46.24%	23.00%
25	2011-06-24	2.53	Orlando City SC	3	1512.01	31.56%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1	1495.86	44.59%	23.85%