2012 USL Season
132 regular-season games · 100,000 simulations
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Orlando City SC
20.00% chance to win USL Championship
Biggest Overachiever
Orlando City SC
19.98 points above expected
57 points · 37.02 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
14.53 points below expected
17 points · 31.53 expected points
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 17 | 1 | 6 | 57 | .792 | 50 | 18 | +32 | 37.02 | +19.98 |
| 2 | Rochester Rhinos | 12 | 7 | 5 | 41 | .569 | 27 | 23 | +4 | 35.11 | +5.89 |
| 3 | Richmond Kickers | 11 | 8 | 5 | 38 | .528 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 34.63 | +3.37 |
| 4 | Charleston Battery | 12 | 10 | 2 | 38 | .528 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 34.11 | +3.89 |
| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 | .514 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 33.59 | +3.41 |
| 6 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 | .514 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 34.07 | +2.93 |
| 7 | Charlotte Eagles | 11 | 10 | 3 | 36 | .500 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 33.27 | +2.73 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Blues | 9 | 12 | 3 | 30 | .417 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33.47 | -3.47 |
| 9 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 4 | 10 | 10 | 22 | .306 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 29.93 | -7.93 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 15 | 5 | 17 | .236 | 20 | 39 | -19 | 31.53 | -14.53 |
| 11 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 5 | 18 | 1 | 16 | .222 | 16 | 50 | -34 | 30.34 | -14.34 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 1557 | 57 | 37.02 | +19.98 | 99.93% | 13 | 26 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 48 | 61 | ||
| Richmond Kickers | 1512 | 38 | 34.63 | +3.37 | 71.80% | 11 | 24 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 45 | 57 | ||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 1512 | 37 | 34.07 | +2.93 | 69.85% | 11 | 23 | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 62 | ||
| Charleston Battery | 1511 | 38 | 34.11 | +3.89 | 75.48% | 10 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 45 | 61 | ||
| Charlotte Eagles | 1511 | 36 | 33.27 | +2.73 | 69.34% | 8 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 | 55 | ||
| Rochester Rhinos | 1510 | 41 | 35.11 | +5.89 | 83.46% | 13 | 24 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 46 | 58 | ||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1509 | 37 | 33.59 | +3.41 | 72.70% | 9 | 23 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 56 | ||
| Los Angeles Blues | 1495 | 30 | 33.47 | -3.47 | 32.85% | 11 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 | 57 | ||
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 1467 | 22 | 29.93 | -7.93 | 12.62% | 7 | 20 | 26 | 30 | 34 | 41 | 58 | ||
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1464 | 17 | 31.53 | -14.53 | 1.21% | 9 | 21 | 27 | 32 | 36 | 42 | 54 | ||
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 1451 | 16 | 30.34 | -14.34 | 1.18% | 10 | 20 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 41 | 57 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's points earned in that matchup (row vs column) and below it the expected points the model predicted based on each individual game's win, OT/SO, and loss probabilities. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | FC | Battery | Eagles | Lions | Islanders | Blues | SC | Riverhounds | Kickers | Rhinos | Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | — |
3
(5.0 exp.)
|
3
(4.2 exp.)
|
0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1
(1.0 exp.)
|
3
(5.0 exp.)
|
0
(3.8 exp.)
|
3
(4.3 exp.)
|
3
(3.7 exp.)
|
0
(1.0 exp.)
|
0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Charleston Battery |
9
(6.1 exp.)
|
— |
3
(4.1 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(3.6 exp.)
|
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(4.4 exp.)
|
| Charlotte Eagles |
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
6
(4.2 exp.)
|
— |
2
(3.1 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
6
(5.4 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
4
(3.9 exp.)
|
| Dayton Dutch Lions |
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.4 exp.)
|
2
(2.5 exp.)
|
— |
4
(3.5 exp.)
|
0
(3.6 exp.)
|
2
(2.2 exp.)
|
4
(4.2 exp.)
|
1
(2.5 exp.)
|
2
(4.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.4 exp.)
|
| Harrisburg City Islanders |
1
(1.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(4.8 exp.)
|
— |
7
(4.1 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
7
(4.3 exp.)
|
2
(4.0 exp.)
|
9
(4.3 exp.)
|
1
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Blues |
9
(6.1 exp.)
|
0
(1.2 exp.)
|
0
(1.2 exp.)
|
9
(4.8 exp.)
|
1
(4.2 exp.)
|
— |
1
(3.9 exp.)
|
6
(2.5 exp.)
|
0
(1.2 exp.)
|
0
(4.2 exp.)
|
4
(4.2 exp.)
|
| Orlando City SC |
9
(4.6 exp.)
|
9
(4.7 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
2
(3.4 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
7
(4.4 exp.)
|
— |
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
4
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(3.0 exp.)
|
4
(4.7 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
6
(4.0 exp.)
|
0
(2.6 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
4
(4.1 exp.)
|
1
(4.1 exp.)
|
0
(3.1 exp.)
|
1
(2.4 exp.)
|
— |
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
1
(3.5 exp.)
|
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
| Richmond Kickers |
6
(4.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(5.7 exp.)
|
4
(3.1 exp.)
|
5
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(1.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.6 exp.)
|
4
(3.0 exp.)
|
— |
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
3
(3.9 exp.)
|
| Rochester Rhinos |
3
(1.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
6
(2.9 exp.)
|
8
(6.3 exp.)
|
0
(4.1 exp.)
|
9
(4.1 exp.)
|
0
(2.5 exp.)
|
7
(4.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
— |
2
(2.8 exp.)
|
| Wilmington Hammerheads |
3
(1.7 exp.)
|
4
(3.9 exp.)
|
4
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(3.1 exp.)
|
4
(2.7 exp.)
|
4
(4.1 exp.)
|
4
(3.6 exp.)
|
3
(2.9 exp.)
|
6
(4.4 exp.)
|
2
(2.7 exp.)
|
— |
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of goals scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Points vs. Goal Differential
How goals translated into points. Teams above the cluster overperformed their goals differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 57 | 37.02 | +19.98 |
| 2 | Rochester Rhinos | 41 | 35.11 | +5.89 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 38 | 34.11 | +3.89 |
| 4 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 37 | 33.59 | +3.41 |
| 5 | Richmond Kickers | 38 | 34.63 | +3.37 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 17 | 31.53 | -14.53 |
| 2 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 16 | 30.34 | -14.34 |
| 3 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 22 | 29.93 | -7.93 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Blues | 30 | 33.47 | -3.47 |
| 5 | Charlotte Eagles | 36 | 33.27 | +2.73 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochester Rhinos | 6 | Apr 14 – May 12 | 1 in 475 |
| 2 | Charlotte Eagles | 6 | Jun 16 – Jul 27 | 1 in 185 |
| 3 | Orlando City SC | 4 | Jul 6 – Jul 19 | 1 in 42 |
| 4 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | Jul 28 – Aug 17 | 1 in 22 |
| 5 | Charleston Battery | 3 | Apr 17 – May 4 | 1 in 14 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 8 | Apr 28 – Jun 29 | 1 in 919 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | Jul 4 – Jul 21 | 1 in 147 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Blues | 5 | Jun 28 – Jul 8 | 1 in 77 |
| 4 | Charlotte Eagles | 3 | Apr 17 – Apr 26 | 1 in 21 |
| 5 | Charleston Battery | 3 | Jul 1 – Jul 7 | 1 in 20 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando City SC | 14 | Jun 9 – Aug 17 | 1 in 320 |
| 2 | Richmond Kickers | 8 | Apr 28 – Jun 9 | 1 in 63 |
| 3 | Rochester Rhinos | 7 | Apr 14 – May 18 | 1 in 33 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Blues | 5 | May 4 – May 24 | 1 in 14 |
| 5 | Charlotte Eagles | 6 | Jun 16 – Jul 27 | 1 in 14 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dayton Dutch Lions | 12 | Apr 13 – Jun 17 | 1 in 175 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 9 | Apr 27 – Jun 17 | 1 in 57 |
| 3 | Rochester Rhinos | 7 | May 18 – Jun 17 | 1 in 42 |
| 4 | Antigua Barracuda FC | 8 | Apr 28 – Jun 29 | 1 in 32 |
| 5 | Charlotte Eagles | 5 | Apr 7 – Apr 26 | 1 in 17 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 20.17% | 15.07% | 11.98% | 10.14% | 8.98% | 8.11% | 7.13% | 6.06% | 5.16% | 4.29% | 2.91% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 12.66% | 12.26% | 10.45% | 10.84% | 9.77% | 9.14% | 8.26% | 7.68% | 7.31% | 6.59% | 5.04% |
| Richmond Kickers | 10.96% | 11.37% | 11.22% | 9.85% | 9.54% | 9.24% | 8.63% | 8.50% | 8.00% | 6.84% | 5.85% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 9.86% | 10.35% | 10.13% | 10.09% | 9.48% | 8.91% | 9.36% | 8.41% | 8.75% | 7.72% | 6.94% |
| Charleston Battery | 9.98% | 9.75% | 9.95% | 9.82% | 9.81% | 9.30% | 9.66% | 9.08% | 8.47% | 7.52% | 6.66% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 8.28% | 9.15% | 10.25% | 9.14% | 10.38% | 8.80% | 9.77% | 9.45% | 8.74% | 8.51% | 7.53% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.53% | 8.58% | 9.42% | 9.48% | 9.21% | 9.90% | 9.51% | 9.21% | 8.96% | 9.02% | 8.18% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 8.29% | 8.54% | 8.96% | 9.05% | 9.46% | 10.24% | 9.00% | 9.89% | 9.25% | 8.70% | 8.62% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5.03% | 5.75% | 6.47% | 8.31% | 8.63% | 9.48% | 9.93% | 10.55% | 11.05% | 12.00% | 12.80% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 3.28% | 4.91% | 5.75% | 6.75% | 7.62% | 8.63% | 9.33% | 10.41% | 12.35% | 14.26% | 16.71% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 2.96% | 4.27% | 5.42% | 6.53% | 7.12% | 8.25% | 9.42% | 10.76% | 11.96% | 14.55% | 18.76% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 20.17% | 15.07% | 11.98% | 10.14% | 8.98% | 8.11% | 25.55% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 12.66% | 12.26% | 10.45% | 10.84% | 9.77% | 9.14% | 34.88% |
| Richmond Kickers | 10.96% | 11.37% | 11.22% | 9.85% | 9.54% | 9.24% | 37.82% |
| Charleston Battery | 9.98% | 9.75% | 9.95% | 9.82% | 9.81% | 9.30% | 41.39% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 9.86% | 10.35% | 10.13% | 10.09% | 9.48% | 8.91% | 41.18% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 8.53% | 8.58% | 9.42% | 9.48% | 9.21% | 9.90% | 44.88% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 8.29% | 8.54% | 8.96% | 9.05% | 9.46% | 10.24% | 45.46% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 8.28% | 9.15% | 10.25% | 9.14% | 10.38% | 8.80% | 44.00% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5.03% | 5.75% | 6.47% | 8.31% | 8.63% | 9.48% | 56.33% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 3.28% | 4.91% | 5.75% | 6.75% | 7.62% | 8.63% | 63.06% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 2.96% | 4.27% | 5.42% | 6.53% | 7.12% | 8.25% | 65.45% |
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 57.56% | 57.56% | 34.29% | 20.00% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 45.69% | 45.69% | 23.84% | 12.12% |
| Richmond Kickers | 43.25% | 43.25% | 21.99% | 11.12% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 40.21% | 40.21% | 20.24% | 9.98% |
| Charleston Battery | 39.78% | 39.78% | 20.07% | 9.56% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 38.57% | 37.14% | 18.03% | 9.43% |
| Charlotte Eagles | 37.71% | 35.82% | 17.88% | 8.76% |
| Los Angeles Blues | 38.01% | 35.84% | 16.72% | 7.89% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 32.89% | 25.44% | 10.66% | 4.49% |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 27.32% | 19.03% | 8.21% | 3.47% |
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 28.75% | 20.24% | 8.07% | 3.18% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 1.27% | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.29% | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.12% | 1.21% | 1.29% | 0.97% | |
| Charleston Battery | 1.54% | 2.03% | 1.56% | 1.94% | 2.24% | 1.98% | 2.01% | 2.22% | 2.19% | 2.34% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 1.69% | 2.17% | 1.51% | 2.01% | 1.91% | 1.81% | 1.72% | 2.06% | 2.20% | 1.91% | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 1.16% | 1.32% | 1.14% | 1.22% | 1.15% | 1.00% | 1.12% | 1.17% | 1.30% | 1.22% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 1.82% | 2.14% | 2.03% | 1.53% | 2.28% | 1.95% | 1.93% | 2.31% | 2.10% | 1.91% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 1.52% | 1.96% | 2.07% | 1.53% | 1.83% | 1.65% | 1.78% | 2.07% | 2.21% | 2.11% | |
| Orlando City SC | 2.06% | 2.13% | 2.26% | 2.17% | 2.27% | 2.42% | 2.38% | 2.23% | 2.26% | 2.14% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.15% | 1.51% | 1.49% | 0.95% | 1.59% | 1.60% | 1.65% | 1.73% | 1.50% | 1.49% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 2.12% | 1.83% | 2.47% | 1.69% | 2.20% | 2.17% | 1.77% | 1.88% | 2.21% | 2.58% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 2.04% | 2.37% | 2.02% | 1.77% | 2.27% | 2.26% | 1.82% | 2.04% | 1.99% | 2.19% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.60% | 2.13% | 1.91% | 1.61% | 1.99% | 2.05% | 2.06% | 2.25% | 1.94% | 2.17% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.91% | 0.69% | 0.36% | 0.90% | 0.72% | 1.26% | 0.55% | 0.90% | 0.95% | 0.83% | |
| Charleston Battery | 1.00% | 2.05% | 1.12% | 2.45% | 2.24% | 2.80% | 1.63% | 2.49% | 2.23% | 2.06% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 1.08% | 1.86% | 1.00% | 1.79% | 1.97% | 2.69% | 1.43% | 1.95% | 2.26% | 1.85% | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.56% | 0.79% | 0.72% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1.10% | 0.64% | 0.95% | 1.12% | 0.83% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 1.45% | 2.19% | 2.08% | 0.99% | 2.19% | 2.94% | 1.30% | 2.40% | 2.58% | 2.12% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.88% | 1.83% | 1.53% | 1.03% | 1.96% | 2.49% | 1.35% | 1.88% | 1.89% | 1.88% | |
| Orlando City SC | 2.40% | 3.83% | 3.62% | 2.14% | 3.95% | 3.46% | 2.54% | 4.27% | 4.22% | 3.86% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.72% | 1.05% | 1.10% | 0.56% | 1.15% | 1.17% | 1.34% | 1.30% | 1.39% | 0.88% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 1.39% | 2.55% | 1.97% | 1.44% | 2.24% | 2.33% | 3.19% | 1.91% | 2.82% | 2.15% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 1.64% | 2.51% | 2.25% | 1.21% | 2.80% | 2.58% | 3.17% | 2.08% | 2.95% | 2.65% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.05% | 2.19% | 1.93% | 0.97% | 1.98% | 1.71% | 2.29% | 1.35% | 2.17% | 2.39% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Antigua Barracuda FC | Charleston Battery | Charlotte Eagles | Dayton Dutch Lions | Harrisburg City Islanders | Los Angeles Blues | Orlando City SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua Barracuda FC | 0.36% | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.34% | 0.24% | 0.52% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.40% | 0.27% | |
| Charleston Battery | 0.45% | 1.10% | 0.42% | 1.09% | 0.88% | 1.67% | 0.64% | 1.23% | 1.24% | 0.84% | |
| Charlotte Eagles | 0.35% | 1.06% | 0.42% | 1.01% | 0.91% | 1.58% | 0.54% | 0.89% | 1.19% | 0.81% | |
| Dayton Dutch Lions | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.48% | 0.32% | 0.37% | 0.51% | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.40% | 0.44% | |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 0.71% | 1.03% | 1.06% | 0.54% | 0.94% | 1.69% | 0.52% | 1.22% | 1.32% | 0.95% | |
| Los Angeles Blues | 0.33% | 1.04% | 0.79% | 0.27% | 0.71% | 1.55% | 0.45% | 1.17% | 0.87% | 0.71% | |
| Orlando City SC | 1.03% | 2.29% | 1.88% | 1.09% | 2.56% | 1.86% | 1.51% | 2.88% | 2.93% | 1.97% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.20% | 0.54% | 0.40% | 0.22% | 0.44% | 0.41% | 0.75% | 0.47% | 0.70% | 0.36% | |
| Richmond Kickers | 0.56% | 1.36% | 0.98% | 0.47% | 1.34% | 1.16% | 2.21% | 0.59% | 1.38% | 1.07% | |
| Rochester Rhinos | 0.63% | 1.58% | 1.15% | 0.56% | 1.33% | 1.21% | 2.23% | 0.86% | 1.39% | 1.18% | |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 0.52% | 0.94% | 0.97% | 0.55% | 1.12% | 0.85% | 1.58% | 0.66% | 0.95% | 1.29% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to USL Championship | Won USL Championship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 100.00% | 62.83% | 39.84% |
| Rochester Rhinos | 100.00% | 56.86% | 24.71% |
| Richmond Kickers | 58.15% | 21.53% | 10.44% |
| Charleston Battery | 56.99% | 24.67% | 10.38% |
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 43.01% | 18.47% | 7.69% |
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 41.85% | 15.64% | 6.94% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Harrisburg City Islanders | Richmond Kickers | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 56.99% | |||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 43.01% | |||
| Richmond Kickers | 58.15% | |||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 41.85% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Harrisburg City Islanders | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 24.67% | |||||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 18.47% | |||||
| Orlando City SC | 36.62% | 26.21% | ||||
| Richmond Kickers | 21.53% | |||||
| Rochester Rhinos | 32.32% | 24.54% | ||||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 15.64% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Charleston Battery | Harrisburg City Islanders | Orlando City SC | Richmond Kickers | Rochester Rhinos | Wilmington Hammerheads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 5.80% | 2.50% | 2.08% | |||
| Harrisburg City Islanders | 4.64% | 1.60% | 1.45% | |||
| Orlando City SC | 9.99% | 7.18% | 22.67% | |||
| Richmond Kickers | 2.65% | 2.28% | 5.51% | |||
| Rochester Rhinos | 12.55% | 6.99% | 5.17% | |||
| Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.65% | 1.32% | 3.97% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Orlando City SC
39.84% chance to win
Conference Finals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
58.28%
Win Prob
62.98%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
56.90%
Win Prob
64.37%
Rochester Rhinos
24.71% chance to win
Conference Finals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
56.84%
Win Prob
56.71%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
50.79%
Win Prob
35.63%
Richmond Kickers
10.44% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Wilmington Hammerheads
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
58.15%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
37.02%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
52.78%
Win Prob
44.08%
Charleston Battery
10.38% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
56.99%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
43.29%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
55.88%
Win Prob
36.73%
Harrisburg City Islanders
7.69% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
43.01%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
42.94%
→
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
60.34%
Win Prob
39.26%
Wilmington Hammerheads
6.94% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
41.85%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
37.37%
→
USL Championship
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
57.20%
Win Prob
43.44%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-04-06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-1 | 1491.87 | 1490.59 | 45.97% | 22.32% | 31.70% | -1.80 | 0 |
| 2012-04-08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-1 | 1490.07 | 1492.39 | 45.38% | 22.55% | 32.07% | +2.21 | 3 |
| 2012-04-26 | Charlotte Eagles | W 3-2 | 1492.28 | 1492.07 | 45.80% | 22.39% | 31.81% | +1.21 | 6 |
| 2012-04-28 | Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1493.49 | 1490.86 | 46.19% | 22.23% | 31.57% | -3.42 | 6 |
| 2012-05-02 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-3 | 1490.07 | 1504.46 | 30.46% | 21.38% | 48.16% | -3.52 | 6 |
| 2012-05-04 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-4 | 1486.55 | 1503.90 | 30.20% | 21.14% | 48.66% | -4.54 | 6 |
| 2012-05-11 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1482.01 | 1527.79 | 38.63% | 24.06% | 37.31% | -1.60 | 6 |
| 2012-05-13 | Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1480.41 | 1529.38 | 38.16% | 24.07% | 37.76% | -1.49 | 6 |
| 2012-06-15 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-3 | 1478.92 | 1511.17 | 28.95% | 19.84% | 51.21% | -3.30 | 6 |
| 2012-06-17 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1475.62 | 1530.60 | 27.26% | 17.58% | 55.16% | -2.10 | 6 |
| 2012-06-29 | Charleston Battery | L 0-2 | 1473.52 | 1516.61 | 39.02% | 24.04% | 36.94% | -3.03 | 6 |
| 2012-07-01 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1470.49 | 1519.64 | 38.14% | 24.08% | 37.79% | +1.57 | 9 |
| 2012-07-04 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 1-4 | 1472.06 | 1512.67 | 28.30% | 19.04% | 52.65% | -2.70 | 9 |
| 2012-07-07 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1469.36 | 1506.78 | 28.55% | 19.35% | 52.10% | +0.20 | 10 |
| 2012-07-12 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-3 | 1469.56 | 1489.98 | 42.48% | 23.47% | 34.05% | -4.68 | 10 |
| 2012-07-14 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-2 | 1464.88 | 1494.66 | 41.02% | 23.79% | 35.19% | -3.14 | 10 |
| 2012-07-27 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-4 | 1461.74 | 1470.22 | 31.01% | 21.83% | 47.17% | -3.03 | 10 |
| 2012-07-29 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-3 | 1458.71 | 1464.21 | 31.29% | 22.04% | 46.67% | -2.16 | 10 |
| 2012-08-03 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1456.55 | 1508.75 | 27.46% | 17.87% | 54.68% | -2.12 | 10 |
| 2012-08-04 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-4 | 1454.43 | 1502.82 | 27.73% | 18.26% | 54.01% | -4.07 | 10 |
| 2012-08-09 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-1 | 1450.36 | 1497.31 | 27.83% | 18.41% | 53.76% | +1.89 | 13 |
| 2012-08-11 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-1 | 1452.25 | 1495.42 | 28.11% | 18.79% | 53.10% | -1.16 | 13 |
| 2012-08-17 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1451.09 | 1512.15 | 36.47% | 24.00% | 39.53% | -1.52 | 13 |
| 2012-08-19 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1449.57 | 1513.67 | 36.07% | 23.95% | 39.98% | +1.54 | 16 |
| 2012-04-07 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1497.58 | 1508.52 | 30.78% | 21.64% | 47.58% | +1.74 | 3 |
| 2012-04-14 | Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1499.32 | 1506.78 | 44.54% | 22.85% | 32.60% | -1.66 | 3 |
| 2012-04-17 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 3-0 | 1497.66 | 1498.66 | 31.73% | 22.34% | 45.93% | +4.94 | 6 |
| 2012-04-27 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1502.60 | 1492.60 | 47.42% | 21.71% | 30.86% | +1.30 | 9 |
| 2012-05-04 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1503.90 | 1486.55 | 48.66% | 21.14% | 30.20% | +4.55 | 12 |
| 2012-05-12 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1508.45 | 1515.89 | 44.55% | 22.85% | 32.60% | -1.77 | 12 |
| 2012-05-26 | Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1506.68 | 1500.81 | 46.73% | 22.01% | 31.26% | +1.32 | 15 |
| 2012-05-31 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-1 | 1508.00 | 1484.21 | 34.45% | 23.60% | 41.95% | +2.77 | 18 |
| 2012-06-02 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1510.77 | 1466.17 | 37.15% | 24.05% | 38.80% | +1.60 | 21 |
| 2012-06-09 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1512.37 | 1529.40 | 30.23% | 21.17% | 48.61% | -1.20 | 21 |
| 2012-06-15 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-0 | 1511.17 | 1478.92 | 51.21% | 19.84% | 28.95% | +3.30 | 24 |
| 2012-06-23 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-1 | 1514.47 | 1505.66 | 47.22% | 21.80% | 30.97% | +2.14 | 27 |
| 2012-06-29 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1516.61 | 1473.52 | 36.94% | 24.04% | 39.02% | +3.03 | 30 |
| 2012-07-01 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | L 0-1 | 1519.64 | 1470.49 | 37.79% | 24.08% | 38.14% | -1.57 | 30 |
| 2012-07-06 | Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1518.07 | 1495.35 | 49.57% | 20.69% | 29.73% | -3.58 | 30 |
| 2012-07-07 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1514.49 | 1498.93 | 33.49% | 23.26% | 43.24% | -1.42 | 30 |
| 2012-07-14 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 3-1 | 1513.07 | 1507.78 | 46.64% | 22.05% | 31.31% | +2.16 | 33 |
| 2012-07-19 | Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1515.23 | 1547.87 | 40.59% | 23.86% | 35.55% | -1.56 | 33 |
| 2012-07-27 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-4 | 1513.67 | 1549.22 | 28.69% | 19.53% | 51.78% | -4.26 | 33 |
| 2012-08-03 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 2-2 | 1509.41 | 1508.07 | 45.98% | 22.32% | 31.70% | -0.09 | 34 |
| 2012-08-04 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1509.32 | 1508.16 | 31.95% | 22.48% | 45.57% | -1.28 | 34 |
| 2012-08-08 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-3 | 1508.04 | 1508.16 | 31.82% | 22.40% | 45.78% | -3.69 | 34 |
| 2012-08-11 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 4-0 | 1504.35 | 1515.08 | 30.80% | 21.66% | 47.54% | +6.62 | 37 |
| 2012-08-18 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1510.97 | 1466.67 | 53.30% | 18.68% | 28.03% | -0.25 | 38 |
| 2012-04-07 | Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1502.11 | 1517.42 | 43.28% | 23.25% | 33.46% | -3.26 | 0 |
| 2012-04-13 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1498.85 | 1475.83 | 49.62% | 20.67% | 29.71% | -0.19 | 1 |
| 2012-04-17 | Charleston Battery | L 0-3 | 1498.66 | 1497.66 | 45.93% | 22.34% | 31.73% | -4.94 | 1 |
| 2012-04-20 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1493.72 | 1505.76 | 43.81% | 23.09% | 33.10% | -1.65 | 1 |
| 2012-04-26 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | L 2-3 | 1492.07 | 1492.28 | 31.81% | 22.39% | 45.80% | -1.21 | 1 |
| 2012-04-28 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1490.86 | 1493.49 | 31.57% | 22.23% | 46.19% | +3.42 | 4 |
| 2012-05-04 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1494.28 | 1507.52 | 30.57% | 21.47% | 47.97% | +1.75 | 7 |
| 2012-05-05 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1496.03 | 1512.90 | 30.24% | 21.18% | 48.58% | -1.27 | 7 |
| 2012-05-11 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1494.76 | 1514.17 | 42.63% | 23.43% | 33.93% | -1.71 | 7 |
| 2012-05-19 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1493.05 | 1506.71 | 30.53% | 21.44% | 48.04% | +0.15 | 8 |
| 2012-05-26 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-2 | 1493.20 | 1530.69 | 28.54% | 19.35% | 52.11% | -1.12 | 8 |
| 2012-06-09 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1492.08 | 1509.55 | 30.19% | 21.13% | 48.68% | -1.27 | 8 |
| 2012-06-16 | Richmond Kickers | W 4-1 | 1490.81 | 1509.55 | 42.74% | 23.40% | 33.86% | +3.30 | 11 |
| 2012-06-28 | Los Angeles Blues | W 3-2 | 1494.11 | 1501.87 | 44.50% | 22.87% | 32.64% | +1.24 | 14 |
| 2012-07-06 | @ Charleston Battery | W 2-0 | 1495.35 | 1518.07 | 29.73% | 20.69% | 49.57% | +3.58 | 17 |
| 2012-07-07 | Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1498.93 | 1514.49 | 43.24% | 23.26% | 33.49% | +1.42 | 20 |
| 2012-07-14 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1500.35 | 1477.93 | 49.52% | 20.72% | 29.76% | +2.35 | 23 |
| 2012-07-27 | Richmond Kickers | W 1-0 | 1502.70 | 1508.87 | 44.75% | 22.78% | 32.47% | +1.38 | 26 |
| 2012-07-28 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1504.08 | 1507.50 | 31.49% | 22.18% | 46.33% | -1.26 | 26 |
| 2012-08-04 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-0 | 1502.82 | 1454.43 | 54.01% | 18.26% | 27.73% | +4.07 | 29 |
| 2012-08-10 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-0 | 1506.89 | 1470.03 | 36.10% | 23.95% | 39.95% | +4.48 | 32 |
| 2012-08-11 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1511.37 | 1466.37 | 37.20% | 24.06% | 38.74% | +0.01 | 33 |
| 2012-08-18 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | W 1-0 | 1511.38 | 1509.43 | 32.03% | 22.53% | 45.44% | +1.79 | 36 |
| 2012-08-19 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1513.17 | 1507.64 | 46.68% | 22.04% | 31.29% | -1.72 | 36 |
| 2012-04-13 | @ Charlotte Eagles | T 0-0 | 1475.83 | 1498.85 | 29.71% | 20.67% | 49.62% | +0.19 | 1 |
| 2012-04-21 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 0-2 | 1476.02 | 1490.18 | 30.48% | 21.40% | 48.12% | -2.43 | 1 |
| 2012-04-28 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1473.59 | 1511.27 | 39.83% | 23.97% | 36.21% | -1.63 | 1 |
| 2012-05-05 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1471.96 | 1505.36 | 40.47% | 23.88% | 35.65% | -0.04 | 2 |
| 2012-05-11 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-1 | 1471.92 | 1494.08 | 42.20% | 23.54% | 34.26% | -1.70 | 2 |
| 2012-05-18 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1470.22 | 1517.65 | 27.80% | 18.36% | 53.84% | +0.22 | 3 |
| 2012-05-19 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-4 | 1470.44 | 1505.67 | 28.72% | 19.56% | 51.72% | -4.27 | 3 |
| 2012-05-26 | Rochester Rhinos | T 2-2 | 1466.17 | 1516.05 | 38.03% | 24.08% | 37.89% | +0.00 | 4 |
| 2012-06-02 | Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1466.17 | 1510.77 | 38.80% | 24.05% | 37.15% | -1.60 | 4 |
| 2012-06-09 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1464.57 | 1481.44 | 43.04% | 23.32% | 33.64% | -0.08 | 5 |
| 2012-06-15 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-1 | 1464.49 | 1499.49 | 28.73% | 19.58% | 51.68% | -1.19 | 5 |
| 2012-06-17 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 0-1 | 1463.30 | 1500.69 | 28.55% | 19.36% | 52.10% | -1.19 | 5 |
| 2012-06-23 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-0 | 1462.11 | 1510.19 | 38.29% | 24.07% | 37.64% | +5.60 | 8 |
| 2012-06-29 | Orlando City SC | T 2-2 | 1467.71 | 1536.10 | 35.51% | 23.86% | 40.63% | +0.03 | 9 |
| 2012-07-04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1467.74 | 1482.88 | 43.31% | 23.24% | 33.45% | +1.41 | 12 |
| 2012-07-07 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-2 | 1469.15 | 1515.37 | 27.89% | 18.48% | 53.63% | -2.16 | 12 |
| 2012-07-13 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 0-0 | 1466.99 | 1506.58 | 28.38% | 19.14% | 52.48% | +0.23 | 13 |
| 2012-07-18 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1467.22 | 1506.35 | 39.61% | 23.99% | 36.40% | +1.44 | 16 |
| 2012-07-20 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-2 | 1468.66 | 1505.62 | 28.58% | 19.40% | 52.02% | -2.24 | 16 |
| 2012-07-21 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-2 | 1466.42 | 1506.66 | 28.33% | 19.08% | 52.59% | -2.21 | 16 |
| 2012-07-29 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-1 | 1464.21 | 1458.71 | 46.67% | 22.04% | 31.29% | +2.16 | 19 |
| 2012-08-11 | Charlotte Eagles | T 2-2 | 1466.37 | 1511.37 | 38.74% | 24.06% | 37.20% | -0.01 | 20 |
| 2012-08-17 | @ Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1466.36 | 1557.46 | 24.89% | 13.65% | 61.46% | +0.31 | 21 |
| 2012-08-18 | @ Charleston Battery | T 0-0 | 1466.67 | 1510.97 | 28.03% | 18.68% | 53.30% | +0.25 | 22 |
| 2012-04-20 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1505.76 | 1493.72 | 33.10% | 23.09% | 43.81% | +1.64 | 3 |
| 2012-04-21 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1507.40 | 1503.29 | 32.25% | 22.66% | 45.09% | +0.12 | 4 |
| 2012-05-04 | Charlotte Eagles | L 1-2 | 1507.52 | 1494.28 | 47.97% | 21.47% | 30.57% | -1.75 | 4 |
| 2012-05-12 | @ Richmond Kickers | T 2-2 | 1505.77 | 1505.40 | 31.87% | 22.43% | 45.70% | +0.09 | 5 |
| 2012-05-16 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 0-0 | 1505.86 | 1484.09 | 49.41% | 20.78% | 29.81% | -0.19 | 6 |
| 2012-05-19 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 4-0 | 1505.67 | 1470.44 | 51.72% | 19.56% | 28.72% | +4.27 | 9 |
| 2012-05-25 | Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1509.94 | 1517.43 | 44.54% | 22.85% | 32.61% | +1.38 | 12 |
| 2012-06-01 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1511.32 | 1507.59 | 46.38% | 22.16% | 31.46% | -0.12 | 13 |
| 2012-06-09 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-2 | 1511.20 | 1506.89 | 46.47% | 22.12% | 31.41% | -3.43 | 13 |
| 2012-06-15 | Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1507.77 | 1514.08 | 44.73% | 22.79% | 32.48% | +1.29 | 16 |
| 2012-06-22 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-3 | 1509.06 | 1532.70 | 29.66% | 20.62% | 49.73% | -3.40 | 16 |
| 2012-06-23 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-3 | 1505.66 | 1514.47 | 30.97% | 21.80% | 47.22% | -2.14 | 16 |
| 2012-06-30 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 2-1 | 1503.52 | 1514.41 | 30.78% | 21.65% | 47.57% | +1.74 | 19 |
| 2012-07-06 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-2 | 1505.26 | 1481.47 | 34.45% | 23.60% | 41.95% | +1.52 | 22 |
| 2012-07-07 | Antigua Barracuda FC | T 1-1 | 1506.78 | 1469.36 | 52.10% | 19.35% | 28.55% | -0.20 | 23 |
| 2012-07-13 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 0-0 | 1506.58 | 1466.99 | 52.48% | 19.14% | 28.38% | -0.23 | 24 |
| 2012-07-18 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 1-2 | 1506.35 | 1467.22 | 36.40% | 23.99% | 39.61% | -1.44 | 24 |
| 2012-07-20 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1504.91 | 1475.57 | 35.13% | 23.78% | 41.09% | +3.15 | 27 |
| 2012-07-28 | Los Angeles Blues | W 2-0 | 1508.06 | 1496.53 | 47.68% | 21.60% | 30.72% | +2.44 | 30 |
| 2012-08-01 | Orlando City SC | L 2-4 | 1510.50 | 1553.49 | 39.04% | 24.04% | 36.93% | -2.34 | 30 |
| 2012-08-08 | Charleston Battery | W 3-0 | 1508.16 | 1508.04 | 45.78% | 22.40% | 31.82% | +3.68 | 33 |
| 2012-08-11 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-2 | 1511.84 | 1510.87 | 31.93% | 22.47% | 45.60% | -1.27 | 33 |
| 2012-08-17 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 2-2 | 1510.57 | 1496.58 | 33.32% | 23.19% | 43.49% | +0.06 | 34 |
| 2012-08-19 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1510.63 | 1496.52 | 33.33% | 23.20% | 43.47% | +1.74 | 37 |
| 2012-04-14 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1497.87 | 1506.21 | 44.40% | 22.90% | 32.70% | -1.76 | 0 |
| 2012-04-20 | Rochester Rhinos | L 0-2 | 1496.11 | 1507.97 | 43.83% | 23.09% | 33.08% | -3.30 | 0 |
| 2012-05-04 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1492.81 | 1507.98 | 43.31% | 23.25% | 33.45% | +1.34 | 3 |
| 2012-05-06 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 2-2 | 1494.15 | 1506.64 | 43.73% | 23.12% | 33.15% | -0.07 | 4 |
| 2012-05-11 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1494.08 | 1471.92 | 34.26% | 23.54% | 42.20% | +1.70 | 7 |
| 2012-05-12 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-0 | 1495.78 | 1488.94 | 32.54% | 22.82% | 44.64% | +4.85 | 10 |
| 2012-05-24 | @ Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1500.63 | 1530.87 | 29.11% | 20.03% | 50.86% | +0.18 | 11 |
| 2012-05-26 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1500.81 | 1506.68 | 31.26% | 22.01% | 46.73% | -1.32 | 11 |
| 2012-06-15 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1499.49 | 1464.49 | 51.68% | 19.58% | 28.73% | +1.20 | 14 |
| 2012-06-17 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1500.69 | 1463.30 | 52.10% | 19.36% | 28.55% | +1.18 | 17 |
| 2012-06-28 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 2-3 | 1501.87 | 1494.11 | 32.64% | 22.87% | 44.50% | -1.23 | 17 |
| 2012-06-30 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 2-4 | 1500.64 | 1504.60 | 31.44% | 22.14% | 46.42% | -1.95 | 17 |
| 2012-07-03 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1498.69 | 1504.66 | 31.25% | 22.01% | 46.75% | -1.32 | 17 |
| 2012-07-06 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1497.37 | 1536.07 | 39.67% | 23.98% | 36.34% | -1.62 | 17 |
| 2012-07-08 | Orlando City SC | L 0-4 | 1495.75 | 1537.69 | 39.19% | 24.03% | 36.78% | -5.77 | 17 |
| 2012-07-12 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-0 | 1489.98 | 1469.56 | 34.05% | 23.47% | 42.48% | +4.68 | 20 |
| 2012-07-14 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1494.66 | 1464.88 | 35.19% | 23.79% | 41.02% | +3.14 | 23 |
| 2012-07-27 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1497.80 | 1515.43 | 30.17% | 21.12% | 48.71% | -1.27 | 23 |
| 2012-07-28 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-2 | 1496.53 | 1508.06 | 30.72% | 21.60% | 47.68% | -2.44 | 23 |
| 2012-07-31 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1494.09 | 1473.25 | 34.10% | 23.49% | 42.41% | +3.22 | 26 |
| 2012-08-09 | Antigua Barracuda FC | L 1-2 | 1497.31 | 1450.36 | 53.76% | 18.41% | 27.83% | -1.89 | 26 |
| 2012-08-11 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1495.42 | 1452.25 | 53.10% | 18.79% | 28.11% | +1.16 | 29 |
| 2012-08-17 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1496.58 | 1510.57 | 43.49% | 23.19% | 33.32% | -0.06 | 30 |
| 2012-08-19 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1496.52 | 1510.63 | 43.47% | 23.20% | 33.33% | -1.74 | 30 |
| 2012-04-07 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 2-0 | 1517.42 | 1502.11 | 33.46% | 23.25% | 43.28% | +3.26 | 3 |
| 2012-04-15 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 4-1 | 1520.68 | 1506.25 | 48.17% | 21.38% | 30.46% | +2.97 | 6 |
| 2012-04-21 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 2-0 | 1523.65 | 1508.44 | 33.45% | 23.25% | 43.30% | +3.26 | 9 |
| 2012-04-28 | Richmond Kickers | T 0-0 | 1526.91 | 1505.18 | 49.41% | 20.78% | 29.82% | -0.18 | 10 |
| 2012-05-05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-2 | 1526.73 | 1490.00 | 51.98% | 19.42% | 28.60% | +1.06 | 13 |
| 2012-05-11 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1527.79 | 1482.01 | 37.31% | 24.06% | 38.63% | +1.59 | 16 |
| 2012-05-13 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-1 | 1529.38 | 1480.41 | 37.76% | 24.07% | 38.16% | +1.49 | 19 |
| 2012-05-24 | Los Angeles Blues | T 1-1 | 1530.87 | 1500.63 | 50.86% | 20.03% | 29.11% | -0.18 | 20 |
| 2012-05-26 | Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1530.69 | 1493.20 | 52.11% | 19.35% | 28.54% | +1.12 | 23 |
| 2012-06-02 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-3 | 1531.81 | 1504.35 | 34.90% | 23.72% | 41.38% | -2.41 | 23 |
| 2012-06-09 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1529.40 | 1512.37 | 48.61% | 21.17% | 30.23% | +1.20 | 26 |
| 2012-06-17 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1530.60 | 1475.62 | 55.16% | 17.58% | 27.26% | +2.10 | 29 |
| 2012-06-22 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 3-0 | 1532.70 | 1509.06 | 49.73% | 20.62% | 29.66% | +3.40 | 32 |
| 2012-06-29 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1536.10 | 1467.71 | 40.63% | 23.86% | 35.51% | -0.03 | 33 |
| 2012-06-30 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1536.07 | 1482.88 | 38.37% | 24.07% | 37.56% | +0.00 | 34 |
| 2012-07-06 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1536.07 | 1497.37 | 36.34% | 23.98% | 39.67% | +1.62 | 37 |
| 2012-07-08 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 4-0 | 1537.69 | 1495.75 | 36.78% | 24.03% | 39.19% | +5.77 | 40 |
| 2012-07-14 | Rochester Rhinos | W 4-0 | 1543.46 | 1517.64 | 50.10% | 20.42% | 29.47% | +4.41 | 43 |
| 2012-07-19 | @ Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1547.87 | 1515.23 | 35.55% | 23.86% | 40.59% | +1.56 | 46 |
| 2012-07-25 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1549.43 | 1507.86 | 52.82% | 18.95% | 28.23% | -0.21 | 47 |
| 2012-07-27 | Charleston Battery | W 4-0 | 1549.22 | 1513.67 | 51.78% | 19.53% | 28.69% | +4.27 | 50 |
| 2012-08-01 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 4-2 | 1553.49 | 1510.50 | 36.93% | 24.04% | 39.04% | +2.35 | 53 |
| 2012-08-03 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1555.84 | 1516.70 | 36.40% | 23.99% | 39.61% | +1.62 | 56 |
| 2012-08-17 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1557.46 | 1466.36 | 61.46% | 13.65% | 24.89% | -0.31 | 57 |
| 2012-04-06 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1490.59 | 1491.87 | 31.70% | 22.32% | 45.97% | +1.80 | 3 |
| 2012-04-08 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | L 1-3 | 1492.39 | 1490.07 | 32.07% | 22.55% | 45.38% | -2.21 | 3 |
| 2012-04-21 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-0 | 1490.18 | 1476.02 | 48.12% | 21.40% | 30.48% | +2.42 | 6 |
| 2012-04-27 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1492.60 | 1502.60 | 30.86% | 21.71% | 47.42% | -1.30 | 6 |
| 2012-04-28 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-1 | 1491.30 | 1503.17 | 30.69% | 21.57% | 47.74% | -1.30 | 6 |
| 2012-05-05 | @ Orlando City SC | L 2-3 | 1490.00 | 1526.73 | 28.60% | 19.42% | 51.98% | -1.06 | 6 |
| 2012-05-12 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-3 | 1488.94 | 1495.78 | 44.64% | 22.82% | 32.54% | -4.85 | 6 |
| 2012-05-16 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 0-0 | 1484.09 | 1505.86 | 29.81% | 20.78% | 49.41% | +0.19 | 7 |
| 2012-05-18 | Richmond Kickers | T 1-1 | 1484.28 | 1505.31 | 42.38% | 23.50% | 34.12% | -0.07 | 8 |
| 2012-05-31 | Charleston Battery | L 1-3 | 1484.21 | 1508.00 | 41.95% | 23.60% | 34.45% | -2.77 | 8 |
| 2012-06-09 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1481.44 | 1464.57 | 33.64% | 23.32% | 43.04% | +0.08 | 9 |
| 2012-06-17 | Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1481.52 | 1512.78 | 40.80% | 23.83% | 35.38% | -0.04 | 10 |
| 2012-06-22 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 2-1 | 1481.48 | 1511.59 | 40.97% | 23.80% | 35.23% | +1.40 | 13 |
| 2012-06-30 | Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1482.88 | 1536.07 | 37.56% | 24.07% | 38.37% | +0.00 | 14 |
| 2012-07-04 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 0-1 | 1482.88 | 1467.74 | 33.45% | 23.24% | 43.31% | -1.41 | 14 |
| 2012-07-06 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 2-3 | 1481.47 | 1505.26 | 41.95% | 23.60% | 34.45% | -1.52 | 14 |
| 2012-07-13 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-3 | 1479.95 | 1504.64 | 29.57% | 20.52% | 49.91% | -2.02 | 14 |
| 2012-07-14 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-2 | 1477.93 | 1500.35 | 29.76% | 20.72% | 49.52% | -2.36 | 14 |
| 2012-07-20 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-2 | 1475.57 | 1504.91 | 41.09% | 23.78% | 35.13% | -3.14 | 14 |
| 2012-07-21 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-2 | 1472.43 | 1513.23 | 28.29% | 19.02% | 52.69% | -2.21 | 14 |
| 2012-07-27 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-1 | 1470.22 | 1461.74 | 47.17% | 21.83% | 31.01% | +3.03 | 17 |
| 2012-07-31 | Los Angeles Blues | L 0-2 | 1473.25 | 1494.09 | 42.41% | 23.49% | 34.10% | -3.22 | 17 |
| 2012-08-10 | Charlotte Eagles | L 0-3 | 1470.03 | 1506.89 | 39.95% | 23.95% | 36.10% | -4.48 | 17 |
| 2012-08-18 | @ Rochester Rhinos | L 0-1 | 1465.55 | 1508.47 | 28.13% | 18.81% | 53.06% | -1.16 | 17 |
| 2012-04-07 | Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1508.52 | 1497.58 | 47.58% | 21.64% | 30.78% | -1.74 | 0 |
| 2012-04-14 | @ Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1506.78 | 1499.32 | 32.60% | 22.85% | 44.54% | +1.66 | 3 |
| 2012-04-21 | Orlando City SC | L 0-2 | 1508.44 | 1523.65 | 43.30% | 23.25% | 33.45% | -3.26 | 3 |
| 2012-04-28 | @ Orlando City SC | T 0-0 | 1505.18 | 1526.91 | 29.82% | 20.78% | 49.41% | +0.18 | 4 |
| 2012-05-05 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1505.36 | 1471.96 | 35.65% | 23.88% | 40.47% | +0.04 | 5 |
| 2012-05-12 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 2-2 | 1505.40 | 1505.77 | 45.70% | 22.43% | 31.87% | -0.09 | 6 |
| 2012-05-18 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1505.31 | 1484.28 | 34.12% | 23.50% | 42.38% | +0.07 | 7 |
| 2012-05-26 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 3-1 | 1505.38 | 1506.56 | 45.57% | 22.48% | 31.95% | +2.21 | 10 |
| 2012-06-01 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | T 1-1 | 1507.59 | 1511.32 | 31.46% | 22.16% | 46.38% | +0.13 | 11 |
| 2012-06-02 | @ Rochester Rhinos | W 1-0 | 1507.72 | 1516.05 | 31.02% | 21.84% | 47.14% | +1.83 | 14 |
| 2012-06-09 | Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1509.55 | 1492.08 | 48.68% | 21.13% | 30.19% | +1.27 | 17 |
| 2012-06-15 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 1-2 | 1510.82 | 1510.32 | 31.88% | 22.44% | 45.68% | -1.27 | 17 |
| 2012-06-16 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 1-4 | 1509.55 | 1490.81 | 33.86% | 23.40% | 42.74% | -3.30 | 17 |
| 2012-06-23 | Rochester Rhinos | L 2-3 | 1506.25 | 1512.83 | 44.69% | 22.80% | 32.51% | -1.59 | 17 |
| 2012-07-03 | Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1504.66 | 1498.69 | 46.75% | 22.01% | 31.25% | +1.32 | 20 |
| 2012-07-07 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | L 0-1 | 1505.98 | 1506.54 | 31.78% | 22.37% | 45.85% | -1.34 | 20 |
| 2012-07-13 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 3-1 | 1504.64 | 1479.95 | 49.91% | 20.52% | 29.57% | +2.02 | 23 |
| 2012-07-21 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-0 | 1506.66 | 1466.42 | 52.59% | 19.08% | 28.33% | +2.21 | 26 |
| 2012-07-27 | @ Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1508.87 | 1502.70 | 32.47% | 22.78% | 44.75% | -1.37 | 26 |
| 2012-07-28 | Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1507.50 | 1504.08 | 46.33% | 22.18% | 31.49% | +1.25 | 29 |
| 2012-08-03 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 2-0 | 1508.75 | 1456.55 | 54.68% | 17.87% | 27.46% | +2.12 | 32 |
| 2012-08-11 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1510.87 | 1511.84 | 45.60% | 22.47% | 31.93% | +1.28 | 35 |
| 2012-08-17 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | W 1-0 | 1512.15 | 1451.09 | 39.53% | 24.00% | 36.47% | +1.52 | 38 |
| 2012-08-19 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | L 1-2 | 1513.67 | 1449.57 | 39.98% | 23.95% | 36.07% | -1.54 | 38 |
| 2012-04-14 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1506.21 | 1497.87 | 32.70% | 22.90% | 44.40% | +1.76 | 3 |
| 2012-04-20 | @ Los Angeles Blues | W 2-0 | 1507.97 | 1496.11 | 33.08% | 23.09% | 43.83% | +3.30 | 6 |
| 2012-04-28 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | W 1-0 | 1511.27 | 1473.59 | 36.21% | 23.97% | 39.83% | +1.63 | 9 |
| 2012-05-05 | Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1512.90 | 1496.03 | 48.58% | 21.18% | 30.24% | +1.27 | 12 |
| 2012-05-11 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 1-0 | 1514.17 | 1494.76 | 33.93% | 23.43% | 42.63% | +1.72 | 15 |
| 2012-05-12 | @ Charleston Battery | W 1-0 | 1515.89 | 1508.45 | 32.60% | 22.85% | 44.55% | +1.76 | 18 |
| 2012-05-18 | Dayton Dutch Lions | T 1-1 | 1517.65 | 1470.22 | 53.84% | 18.36% | 27.80% | -0.22 | 19 |
| 2012-05-25 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 0-1 | 1517.43 | 1509.94 | 32.61% | 22.85% | 44.54% | -1.38 | 19 |
| 2012-05-26 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | T 2-2 | 1516.05 | 1466.17 | 37.89% | 24.08% | 38.03% | +0.00 | 20 |
| 2012-06-02 | Richmond Kickers | L 0-1 | 1516.05 | 1507.72 | 47.14% | 21.84% | 31.02% | -1.84 | 20 |
| 2012-06-08 | Wilmington Hammerheads | T 1-1 | 1514.21 | 1506.75 | 47.00% | 21.90% | 31.10% | -0.13 | 21 |
| 2012-06-15 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1514.08 | 1507.77 | 32.48% | 22.79% | 44.73% | -1.30 | 21 |
| 2012-06-17 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | T 1-1 | 1512.78 | 1481.52 | 35.38% | 23.83% | 40.80% | +0.05 | 22 |
| 2012-06-23 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 3-2 | 1512.83 | 1506.25 | 32.51% | 22.80% | 44.69% | +1.58 | 25 |
| 2012-06-30 | Harrisburg City Islanders | L 1-2 | 1514.41 | 1503.52 | 47.57% | 21.65% | 30.78% | -1.74 | 25 |
| 2012-07-04 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 4-1 | 1512.67 | 1472.06 | 52.65% | 19.04% | 28.30% | +2.70 | 28 |
| 2012-07-07 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-0 | 1515.37 | 1469.15 | 53.63% | 18.48% | 27.89% | +2.17 | 31 |
| 2012-07-12 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | T 0-0 | 1517.54 | 1507.89 | 32.84% | 22.97% | 44.19% | +0.10 | 32 |
| 2012-07-14 | @ Orlando City SC | L 0-4 | 1517.64 | 1543.46 | 29.47% | 20.42% | 50.10% | -4.41 | 32 |
| 2012-07-21 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 2-0 | 1513.23 | 1472.43 | 52.69% | 19.02% | 28.29% | +2.20 | 35 |
| 2012-07-27 | Los Angeles Blues | W 1-0 | 1515.43 | 1497.80 | 48.71% | 21.12% | 30.17% | +1.27 | 38 |
| 2012-08-03 | Orlando City SC | L 0-1 | 1516.70 | 1555.84 | 39.61% | 23.99% | 36.40% | -1.62 | 38 |
| 2012-08-11 | Charleston Battery | L 0-4 | 1515.08 | 1504.35 | 47.54% | 21.66% | 30.80% | -6.61 | 38 |
| 2012-08-18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1508.47 | 1465.55 | 53.06% | 18.81% | 28.13% | +1.16 | 41 |
| 2012-04-15 | @ Orlando City SC | L 1-4 | 1506.25 | 1520.68 | 30.46% | 21.38% | 48.17% | -2.96 | 0 |
| 2012-04-21 | Harrisburg City Islanders | T 0-0 | 1503.29 | 1507.40 | 45.09% | 22.66% | 32.25% | -0.12 | 1 |
| 2012-04-28 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | W 1-0 | 1503.17 | 1491.30 | 47.74% | 21.57% | 30.69% | +1.29 | 4 |
| 2012-05-02 | Antigua Barracuda FC | W 3-0 | 1504.46 | 1490.07 | 48.16% | 21.38% | 30.46% | +3.52 | 7 |
| 2012-05-04 | @ Los Angeles Blues | L 1-2 | 1507.98 | 1492.81 | 33.45% | 23.25% | 43.31% | -1.34 | 7 |
| 2012-05-06 | @ Los Angeles Blues | T 2-2 | 1506.64 | 1494.15 | 33.15% | 23.12% | 43.73% | +0.07 | 8 |
| 2012-05-19 | Charlotte Eagles | T 1-1 | 1506.71 | 1493.05 | 48.04% | 21.44% | 30.53% | -0.15 | 9 |
| 2012-05-26 | @ Richmond Kickers | L 1-3 | 1506.56 | 1505.38 | 31.95% | 22.48% | 45.57% | -2.21 | 9 |
| 2012-06-02 | Orlando City SC | W 3-1 | 1504.35 | 1531.81 | 41.38% | 23.72% | 34.90% | +2.40 | 12 |
| 2012-06-08 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1506.75 | 1514.21 | 31.10% | 21.90% | 47.00% | +0.14 | 13 |
| 2012-06-09 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-0 | 1506.89 | 1511.20 | 31.41% | 22.12% | 46.47% | +3.43 | 16 |
| 2012-06-15 | Richmond Kickers | W 2-1 | 1510.32 | 1510.82 | 45.68% | 22.44% | 31.88% | +1.27 | 19 |
| 2012-06-22 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | L 1-2 | 1511.59 | 1481.48 | 35.23% | 23.80% | 40.97% | -1.40 | 19 |
| 2012-06-23 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | L 0-4 | 1510.19 | 1462.11 | 37.64% | 24.07% | 38.29% | -5.59 | 19 |
| 2012-06-30 | Los Angeles Blues | W 4-2 | 1504.60 | 1500.64 | 46.42% | 22.14% | 31.44% | +1.94 | 22 |
| 2012-07-07 | Richmond Kickers | W 1-0 | 1506.54 | 1505.98 | 45.85% | 22.37% | 31.78% | +1.35 | 25 |
| 2012-07-12 | Rochester Rhinos | T 0-0 | 1507.89 | 1517.54 | 44.19% | 22.97% | 32.84% | -0.11 | 26 |
| 2012-07-14 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-3 | 1507.78 | 1513.07 | 31.31% | 22.05% | 46.64% | -2.16 | 26 |
| 2012-07-20 | Dayton Dutch Lions | W 2-0 | 1505.62 | 1468.66 | 52.02% | 19.40% | 28.58% | +2.24 | 29 |
| 2012-07-25 | @ Orlando City SC | T 1-1 | 1507.86 | 1549.43 | 28.23% | 18.95% | 52.82% | +0.21 | 30 |
| 2012-08-03 | @ Charleston Battery | T 2-2 | 1508.07 | 1509.41 | 31.70% | 22.32% | 45.98% | +0.09 | 31 |
| 2012-08-04 | Charleston Battery | W 2-1 | 1508.16 | 1509.32 | 45.57% | 22.48% | 31.95% | +1.27 | 34 |
| 2012-08-18 | Charlotte Eagles | L 0-1 | 1509.43 | 1511.38 | 45.44% | 22.53% | 32.03% | -1.79 | 34 |
| 2012-08-19 | @ Charlotte Eagles | W 2-1 | 1507.64 | 1513.17 | 31.29% | 22.04% | 46.68% | +1.72 | 37 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-25 | Harrisburg City Islanders | W 2-1 | 1510.72 | 1512.37 | 56.96% | 0.00% | 43.04% | +1.28 | 1-0 |
| 2012-08-31 | @ Rochester Rhinos | T 1-1 | 1512.00 | 1509.63 | 43.14% | 0.00% | 56.86% | +0.11 | 1-0 |
| 2012-09-08 | Wilmington Hammerheads | W 1-0 | 1512.11 | 1512.73 | 57.11% | 0.00% | 42.89% | +1.35 | 2-0 |
| 2012-08-25 | @ Charleston Battery | L 1-2 | 1512.37 | 1510.72 | 43.04% | 0.00% | 56.96% | -1.28 | 0-1 |
| 2012-08-31 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 3-4 | 1557.15 | 1510.98 | 63.54% | 0.00% | 36.46% | -1.75 | 0-1 |
| 2012-08-25 | Wilmington Hammerheads | L 2-3 | 1512.13 | 1509.36 | 57.59% | 0.00% | 42.41% | -1.62 | 0-1 |
| 2012-08-31 | Charleston Battery | T 1-1 | 1509.63 | 1512.00 | 56.86% | 0.00% | 43.14% | -0.11 | 0-0 |
| 2012-08-25 | @ Richmond Kickers | W 3-2 | 1509.36 | 1512.13 | 42.41% | 0.00% | 57.59% | +1.62 | 1-0 |
| 2012-08-31 | @ Orlando City SC | W 4-3 | 1510.98 | 1557.15 | 36.46% | 0.00% | 63.54% | +1.75 | 2-0 |
| 2012-09-08 | @ Charleston Battery | L 0-1 | 1512.73 | 1512.11 | 42.89% | 0.00% | 57.11% | -1.35 | 2-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2012-08-09 | 27.83% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 1450.36 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1497.31 | 1 |
| 2 | 2012-07-06 | 29.73% | Charlotte Eagles | 1495.35 | 2 | @ Charleston Battery | 1518.07 | 0 |
| 3 | 2012-05-04 | 30.57% | Charlotte Eagles | 1494.28 | 2 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1507.52 | 1 |
| 4 | 2012-04-07 | 30.78% | Charleston Battery | 1497.58 | 2 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1508.52 | 1 |
| 5 | 2012-06-30 | 30.78% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1503.52 | 2 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1514.41 | 1 |
| 6 | 2012-08-11 | 30.80% | Charleston Battery | 1504.35 | 4 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1515.08 | 0 |
| 7 | 2012-06-02 | 31.02% | Richmond Kickers | 1507.72 | 1 | @ Rochester Rhinos | 1516.05 | 0 |
| 8 | 2012-08-19 | 31.29% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1507.64 | 2 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1513.17 | 1 |
| 9 | 2012-06-09 | 31.41% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1506.89 | 2 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 1511.20 | 0 |
| 10 | 2012-04-28 | 31.57% | Charlotte Eagles | 1490.86 | 2 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1493.49 | 0 |
| 11 | 2012-04-06 | 31.70% | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1490.59 | 1 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1491.87 | 0 |
| 12 | 2012-04-17 | 31.73% | Charleston Battery | 1497.66 | 3 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1498.66 | 0 |
| 13 | 2012-08-18 | 32.03% | Charlotte Eagles | 1511.38 | 1 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 1509.43 | 0 |
| 14 | 2012-06-23 | 32.51% | Rochester Rhinos | 1512.83 | 3 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1506.25 | 2 |
| 15 | 2012-05-12 | 32.54% | Los Angeles Blues | 1495.78 | 3 | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1488.94 | 0 |
| 16 | 2012-04-14 | 32.60% | Richmond Kickers | 1506.78 | 2 | @ Charleston Battery | 1499.32 | 1 |
| 17 | 2012-05-12 | 32.60% | Rochester Rhinos | 1515.89 | 1 | @ Charleston Battery | 1508.45 | 0 |
| 18 | 2012-04-14 | 32.70% | Rochester Rhinos | 1506.21 | 1 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1497.87 | 0 |
| 19 | 2012-04-20 | 33.08% | Rochester Rhinos | 1507.97 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1496.11 | 0 |
| 20 | 2012-04-20 | 33.10% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1505.76 | 2 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1493.72 | 1 |
| 21 | 2012-08-19 | 33.33% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 1510.63 | 1 | @ Los Angeles Blues | 1496.52 | 0 |
| 22 | 2012-04-21 | 33.45% | Orlando City SC | 1523.65 | 2 | @ Richmond Kickers | 1508.44 | 0 |
| 23 | 2012-04-07 | 33.46% | Orlando City SC | 1517.42 | 2 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1502.11 | 0 |
| 24 | 2012-05-11 | 33.93% | Rochester Rhinos | 1514.17 | 1 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 1494.76 | 0 |
| 25 | 2012-07-12 | 34.05% | Los Angeles Blues | 1489.98 | 3 | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 1469.56 | 0 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2012-08-11 | 6.62 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 1504.35 | 30.80% | @ Rochester Rhinos | 0 | 1515.08 | 47.54% | 21.66% |
| 2 | 2012-07-08 | 5.77 | Orlando City SC | 4 | 1537.69 | 36.78% | @ Los Angeles Blues | 0 | 1495.75 | 39.19% | 24.03% |
| 3 | 2012-06-23 | 5.60 | @ Dayton Dutch Lions | 4 | 1462.11 | 38.29% | Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 1510.19 | 37.64% | 24.07% |
| 4 | 2012-04-17 | 4.94 | Charleston Battery | 3 | 1497.66 | 31.73% | @ Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1498.66 | 45.93% | 22.34% |
| 5 | 2012-05-12 | 4.85 | Los Angeles Blues | 3 | 1495.78 | 32.54% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1488.94 | 44.64% | 22.82% |
| 6 | 2012-07-12 | 4.68 | Los Angeles Blues | 3 | 1489.98 | 34.05% | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1469.56 | 42.48% | 23.47% |
| 7 | 2012-05-04 | 4.55 | @ Charleston Battery | 4 | 1503.90 | 48.66% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1486.55 | 30.20% | 21.14% |
| 8 | 2012-08-10 | 4.48 | Charlotte Eagles | 3 | 1506.89 | 36.10% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1470.03 | 39.95% | 23.95% |
| 9 | 2012-07-14 | 4.41 | @ Orlando City SC | 4 | 1543.46 | 50.10% | Rochester Rhinos | 0 | 1517.64 | 29.47% | 20.42% |
| 10 | 2012-05-19 | 4.27 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 4 | 1505.67 | 51.72% | Dayton Dutch Lions | 0 | 1470.44 | 28.72% | 19.56% |
| 11 | 2012-07-27 | 4.27 | @ Orlando City SC | 4 | 1549.22 | 51.78% | Charleston Battery | 0 | 1513.67 | 28.69% | 19.53% |
| 12 | 2012-08-04 | 4.07 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 4 | 1502.82 | 54.01% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1454.43 | 27.73% | 18.26% |
| 13 | 2012-08-08 | 3.69 | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 3 | 1508.16 | 45.78% | Charleston Battery | 0 | 1508.04 | 31.82% | 22.40% |
| 14 | 2012-07-06 | 3.58 | Charlotte Eagles | 2 | 1495.35 | 29.73% | @ Charleston Battery | 0 | 1518.07 | 49.57% | 20.69% |
| 15 | 2012-05-02 | 3.52 | @ Wilmington Hammerheads | 3 | 1504.46 | 48.16% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1490.07 | 30.46% | 21.38% |
| 16 | 2012-06-09 | 3.43 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 2 | 1506.89 | 31.41% | @ Harrisburg City Islanders | 0 | 1511.20 | 46.47% | 22.12% |
| 17 | 2012-04-28 | 3.42 | Charlotte Eagles | 2 | 1490.86 | 31.57% | @ Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1493.49 | 46.19% | 22.23% |
| 18 | 2012-06-22 | 3.40 | @ Orlando City SC | 3 | 1532.70 | 49.73% | Harrisburg City Islanders | 0 | 1509.06 | 29.66% | 20.62% |
| 19 | 2012-06-15 | 3.30 | @ Charleston Battery | 3 | 1511.17 | 51.21% | Antigua Barracuda FC | 0 | 1478.92 | 28.95% | 19.84% |
| 20 | 2012-04-20 | 3.30 | Rochester Rhinos | 2 | 1507.97 | 33.08% | @ Los Angeles Blues | 0 | 1496.11 | 43.83% | 23.09% |
| 21 | 2012-06-16 | 3.30 | @ Charlotte Eagles | 4 | 1490.81 | 42.74% | Richmond Kickers | 1 | 1509.55 | 33.86% | 23.40% |
| 22 | 2012-04-07 | 3.26 | Orlando City SC | 2 | 1517.42 | 33.46% | @ Charlotte Eagles | 0 | 1502.11 | 43.28% | 23.25% |
| 23 | 2012-04-21 | 3.26 | Orlando City SC | 2 | 1523.65 | 33.45% | @ Richmond Kickers | 0 | 1508.44 | 43.30% | 23.25% |
| 24 | 2012-07-31 | 3.22 | Los Angeles Blues | 2 | 1494.09 | 34.10% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1473.25 | 42.41% | 23.49% |
| 25 | 2012-07-20 | 3.15 | Harrisburg City Islanders | 2 | 1504.91 | 35.13% | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 1475.57 | 41.09% | 23.78% |