2010-11 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Bangor City

70 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bala Town

4.87 points above expected

33 points · 28.13 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Haverfordwest County

7.89 points below expected

19 points · 26.89 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bangor City	22	18	2	2	56	63	25	+38	42.26	+13.74
2	The New Saints	22	15	5	2	50	68	24	+44	46.84	+3.16
3	Neath	22	13	6	3	45	50	23	+27	34.86	+10.14
4	Llanelli	22	10	6	6	36	35	28	+7	37.12	-1.12
5	Prestatyn Town	22	8	7	7	31	35	29	+6	26.20	+4.80
6	Port Talbot Town	22	7	6	9	27	28	36	-8	32.95	-5.95
7	Aberystwyth Town	22	6	8	8	26	26	40	-14	28.36	-2.36
8	Airbus UK	22	6	6	10	24	35	41	-6	27.26	-3.26
9	Carmarthen Town	22	6	4	12	22	30	52	-22	24.70	-2.70
10	Bala Town	22	5	2	15	17	25	42	-17	21.74	-4.74
11	Newtown	22	2	9	11	15	20	44	-24	20.57	-5.57
12	Haverfordwest County	22	4	3	15	15	19	50	-31	21.53	-6.53

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bangor City	32	22	4	6	70	80	44	+36	73.00	-3.00
2	The New Saints	32	20	8	4	68	87	34	+53	69.86	-1.86
3	Neath	32	16	10	6	58	62	41	+21	59.34	-1.34
4	Llanelli	32	15	8	9	53	58	41	+17	48.57	+4.43
5	Prestatyn Town	32	10	10	12	40	44	46	-2	41.28	-1.28
6	Port Talbot Town	32	8	12	12	36	37	48	-11	35.76	+0.24

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Aberystwyth Town	32	11	9	12	42	42	54	-12	41.88	+0.12
2	Airbus UK	32	11	8	13	41	53	52	+1	40.39	+0.61
3	Newtown	32	8	11	13	35	40	55	-15	33.15	+1.85
4	Carmarthen Town	32	10	5	17	35	39	64	-25	31.10	+3.90
5	Bala Town	32	10	3	19	33	41	57	-16	28.13	+4.87
6	Haverfordwest County	32	5	4	23	19	30	77	-47	26.89	-7.89

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bala Town	33	28.13	+4.87
2	Llanelli	53	48.57	+4.43
3	Carmarthen Town	35	31.10	+3.90
4	Newtown	35	33.15	+1.85
5	Airbus UK	41	40.39	+0.61

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Haverfordwest County	19	26.89	-7.89
2	Bangor City	70	73.00	-3.00
3	The New Saints	68	69.86	-1.86
4	Neath	58	59.34	-1.34
5	Prestatyn Town	40	41.28	-1.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor City	15	Aug 14 – Dec 11	1 in 9,026
2	Llanelli	5	Jan 1 – Jan 15	1 in 42
3	Newtown	3	Mar 25 – Apr 9	1 in 26
4	Haverfordwest County	2	Dec 29 – Jan 1	1 in 19
5	Airbus UK	4	Feb 19 – Mar 20	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haverfordwest County	8	Mar 11 – Apr 30	1 in 236
2	Llanelli	3	Oct 1 – Oct 15	1 in 80
3	Bangor City	2	Jan 2 – Jan 5	1 in 34
4	Carmarthen Town	4	Dec 29 – Jan 12	1 in 18
5	Bala Town	4	Aug 15 – Sep 5	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor City	17	Aug 14 – Dec 29	1 in 49
2	Prestatyn Town	6	Oct 10 – Nov 20	1 in 38
3	Llanelli	10	Oct 24 – Feb 1	1 in 29
4	The New Saints	22	Oct 10 – Apr 15	1 in 26
5	Neath	11	Nov 12 – Feb 8	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Newtown	20	Sep 5 – Feb 19	1 in 305
2	Airbus UK	10	Sep 10 – Dec 4	1 in 55
3	Bangor City	6	Mar 5 – Apr 16	1 in 53
4	Llanelli	5	Oct 1 – Oct 30	1 in 30
5	Prestatyn Town	8	Jan 15 – Mar 25	1 in 24

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Bangor City	1322	70	-8	9	7.8	+1.2
The New Saints	1437	68	-14	7	10.2	-3.2
Neath	1231	58	-20	7	6.3	+0.7
Llanelli	1332	53	+46	9	8.1	+0.9
Aberystwyth Town	1078	42	+20	9	8.0	+1.0
Airbus UK	1075	41	-62	5	9.3	-4.3
Prestatyn Town	1170	40	-5	5	5.4	-0.4
Port Talbot Town	1141	36	-19	4	5.1	-1.1
Newtown	1075	35	+78	12	6.6	+5.4
Carmarthen Town	986	35	-36	7	6.8	+0.2
Bala Town	1032	33	+68	10	6.1	+3.9
Haverfordwest County	871	19	-67	0	4.5	-4.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AU	BT	BC	CT	HC	LLA	NEA	NEW	PTT	PT	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	2-0-2 4.88	2-0-2 6.69	0-0-2 1.39	3-1-0 6.20	2-1-1 7.14	1-0-1 1.87	0-2-0 2.05	0-3-1 6.71	0-2-0 2.19	1-0-1 3.12	0-0-2 1.18
Airbus UK	2-0-2 6.11	—	2-1-1 7.16	0-1-1 1.59	2-1-1 6.21	3-0-1 7.52	0-1-1 1.97	0-1-1 1.73	1-1-2 7.21	1-0-1 2.15	0-1-1 2.71	0-1-1 1.33
Bala Town	2-0-2 4.31	1-1-2 3.86	—	0-0-2 1.36	1-0-3 4.80	3-0-1 6.12	1-0-1 1.48	0-0-2 1.63	1-1-2 5.43	0-1-1 1.82	1-0-1 2.08	0-0-2 1.01
Bangor City	2-0-0 4.16	1-1-0 3.95	2-0-0 4.20	—	2-0-0 4.07	2-0-0 4.54	1-1-2 6.31	3-0-1 7.01	2-0-0 4.67	3-1-0 7.58	2-0-2 8.24	2-1-1 4.13
Carmarthen Town	0-1-3 4.79	1-1-2 4.78	3-0-1 6.19	0-0-2 1.47	—	1-1-2 6.57	0-0-2 1.66	0-0-2 1.56	3-1-0 5.79	1-0-1 2.04	1-1-0 2.22	0-0-2 1.07
Haverfordwest County	1-1-2 3.88	1-0-3 3.51	1-0-3 4.88	0-0-2 1.05	2-1-1 4.43	—	0-0-2 1.58	0-0-2 2.13	0-2-2 5.30	0-0-2 1.76	0-0-2 2.50	0-0-2 0.80
Llanelli	1-0-1 3.64	1-1-0 3.54	1-0-1 4.06	2-1-1 4.69	2-0-0 3.86	2-0-0 3.96	—	2-1-1 5.64	1-1-0 4.22	0-2-2 7.08	2-2-0 7.40	1-0-3 3.70
Neath	0-2-0 3.48	1-1-0 3.79	2-0-0 3.89	1-0-3 4.00	2-0-0 3.97	2-0-0 3.39	1-1-2 5.36	—	2-0-0 3.46	3-1-0 7.08	1-3-0 6.80	1-2-1 3.01
Newtown	1-3-0 4.29	2-1-1 3.81	2-1-1 5.56	0-0-2 0.94	0-1-3 5.20	2-2-0 5.68	0-1-1 1.33	0-0-2 2.05	—	0-1-1 1.68	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 0.68
Port Talbot Town	0-2-0 3.31	1-0-1 3.35	1-1-0 3.69	0-1-3 3.46	1-0-1 3.48	2-0-0 3.76	2-2-0 3.95	0-1-3 3.93	1-1-0 3.84	—	0-2-2 5.52	0-2-2 2.59
Prestatyn Town	1-0-1 2.37	1-1-0 2.78	1-0-1 3.43	2-0-2 2.85	0-1-1 3.30	2-0-0 3.00	0-2-2 3.63	0-3-1 4.21	1-0-1 2.96	2-2-0 5.48	—	0-1-3 2.44
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.40	1-1-0 4.23	2-0-0 4.58	1-1-2 6.88	2-0-0 4.52	2-0-0 4.83	3-0-1 7.32	1-2-1 8.06	1-1-0 4.98	2-2-0 8.52	3-1-0 8.68	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.92	+8.2
Allowed	0.73	-11.2
Differential	0.94	+5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.73%	4.95%	5.21%	2.60%	2.60%	1.56%	22.66%
1	4.95%	10.94%	9.64%	3.12%	1.82%	1.04%	31.51%
2	5.21%	9.64%	6.77%	2.86%	0.52%	0.78%	25.78%
3	2.60%	3.12%	2.86%	—	0.78%	0.52%	9.90%
4	2.60%	1.82%	0.52%	0.78%	0.52%	—	6.25%
5+	1.56%	1.04%	0.78%	0.52%	—	—	3.91%
Total	22.66%	31.51%	25.78%	9.90%	6.25%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.60	1.60	+0.00
SD	1.40	1.40	2.12
CV	0.87	0.87	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	25.00%
1	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	34.38%
2	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	40.62%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.69	-0.38
SD	1.03	1.31	1.62
CV	0.78	0.77	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
1	—	15.62%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	34.38%	28.12%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.62	+0.03
SD	1.47	1.31	2.13
CV	0.89	0.81	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
1	6.25%	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	40.62%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	25.00%	31.25%	21.88%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.78	-0.50
SD	1.11	1.16	1.72
CV	0.87	0.65	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
1	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
2	3.12%	28.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	50.00%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
5+	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
Total	21.88%	40.62%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	1.38	+1.12
SD	1.68	1.18	2.17
CV	0.67	0.86	—
Max	8	5	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	28.12%
1	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	—	37.50%
2	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.00	-0.78
SD	1.10	1.63	2.14
CV	0.90	0.81	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	46.88%
1	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	28.12%
2	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	15.62%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	21.88%	21.88%	15.62%	18.75%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	2.41	-1.47
SD	1.16	1.68	2.17
CV	1.24	0.70	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
1	—	12.50%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
2	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	34.38%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	40.62%	18.75%	12.50%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.81	1.28	+0.53
SD	1.40	1.08	2.00
CV	0.77	0.85	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	9.38%
1	3.12%	21.88%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	21.88%	46.88%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.28	+0.66
SD	1.41	1.08	1.98
CV	0.73	0.85	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	12.50%	12.50%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	21.88%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%	6.25%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	28.12%	18.75%	6.25%	9.38%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.72	-0.47
SD	1.14	1.71	1.83
CV	0.91	0.99	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
1	3.12%	15.62%	15.62%	3.12%	—	6.25%	43.75%
2	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	18.75%	34.38%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.16	1.50	-0.34
SD	1.02	1.76	2.13
CV	0.88	1.17	—
Max	3	8	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	3.12%	21.88%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
2	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.88%	34.38%	31.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.44	-0.06
SD	1.18	1.19	1.68
CV	0.86	0.83	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
1	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
2	18.75%	3.12%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
3	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	15.62%
4	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
5+	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
Total	37.50%	31.25%	21.88%	6.25%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.72	1.06	+1.66
SD	1.75	1.08	2.04
CV	0.64	1.01	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1437	68	46.84	+21.16	77.0%	36	37	43	47	50	55	58
Llanelli	1332	53	37.12	+15.88	50.0%	21	25	32	36	42	47	51
Bangor City	1322	70	42.26	+27.74	100.0%	29	34	39	42	46	50	56
Neath	1231	58	34.86	+23.14	98.0%	23	25	31	35	38	44	48
Prestatyn Town	1170	40	26.20	+13.80	79.0%	13	17	22	26	31	35	40
Port Talbot Town	1141	36	32.95	+3.05	15.0%	18	22	29	32	37	43	47
Aberystwyth Town	1078	42	28.36	+13.64	37.0%	14	17	23	28	33	37	41
Airbus UK	1075	41	27.26	+13.74	33.0%	15	19	23	27	31	37	46
Newtown	1075	35	20.57	+14.43	17.0%	5	12	17	21	23	30	34
Bala Town	1032	33	21.74	+11.26	24.0%	11	11	18	22	25	32	36
Carmarthen Town	986	35	24.70	+10.30	40.0%	10	15	20	25	29	34	40
Haverfordwest County	871	19	21.53	-2.53	16.0%	10	12	17	21	25	31	41

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.25%

Slight Edge

41.15%23.96%34.90%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 21.74 Elo pts.

153 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.37 goals

Neutral

-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.0

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

18%

Bangor City, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.62 * Some Luck: 4.62 to 6.93 * Lucky: 6.93 to 9.24 * Wild Swing: 9.24 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.29 * Close: 1.29 to 1.94 * Off: 1.94 to 2.59 * Way Off: 2.59 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.33 points

Some Luck

05.7714

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

01.624

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

100.00%

Bangor City

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

15.00%

Port Talbot Town

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 152.03

2.02

Moderate Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

79%

Wide Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

93%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

60%

Very Frequent

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Occasional

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.38

Slight Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.40

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.65

Strong Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.80

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.17

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.035

Well Within Noise

00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Bangor City	18.00%	48.00%	18.00%	10.00%	2.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
The New Saints	67.00%	15.00%	12.00%	6.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Neath	4.00%	5.00%	21.00%	25.00%	19.00%	10.00%	7.00%	5.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Llanelli	10.00%	22.00%	17.00%	17.00%	12.00%	12.00%	2.00%	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—	—
Prestatyn Town	—	—	2.00%	6.00%	12.00%	12.00%	15.00%	15.00%	9.00%	14.00%	9.00%	6.00%
Port Talbot Town	1.00%	7.00%	16.00%	10.00%	24.00%	10.00%	11.00%	10.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	1.00%	5.00%	9.00%	13.00%	15.00%	15.00%	13.00%	10.00%	8.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Airbus UK	—	1.00%	5.00%	9.00%	7.00%	14.00%	16.00%	15.00%	11.00%	10.00%	10.00%	2.00%
Newtown	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	11.00%	12.00%	21.00%	17.00%	30.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%	16.00%	13.00%	13.00%	13.00%
Bala Town	—	—	—	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%	17.00%	22.00%	19.00%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	2.00%	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	18.00%	10.00%	21.00%	25.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Bangor City	67.46%	29.75%	2.78%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
The New Saints	31.12%	61.98%	6.75%	0.15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Neath	1.42%	8.17%	82.52%	7.60%	0.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Llanelli	—	0.10%	7.37%	75.62%	15.25%	1.66%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Prestatyn Town	—	—	0.53%	14.17%	65.67%	19.63%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Port Talbot Town	—	—	0.05%	2.45%	18.79%	78.71%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.10%	29.81%	10.90%	3.91%	1.08%	0.20%
Airbus UK	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.01%	40.26%	14.22%	5.92%	2.17%	0.42%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.12%	14.26%	31.08%	26.08%	16.97%	6.49%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.43%	9.35%	23.04%	28.21%	22.77%	14.20%
Bala Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.92%	3.94%	12.10%	20.32%	29.97%	32.75%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.42%	2.38%	8.66%	15.56%	27.04%	45.94%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bangor City	100%	—
Llanelli	100%	—
Neath	100%	—
Port Talbot Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Prestatyn Town	96.00%	4.00%
Aberystwyth Town	93.00%	7.00%
Airbus UK	93.00%	7.00%
Carmarthen Town	74.00%	26.00%
Bala Town	62.00%	38.00%
Haverfordwest County	47.00%	53.00%
Newtown	35.00%	65.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bangor City	100%	—
Llanelli	100%	—
Neath	100%	—
Port Talbot Town	100%	—
Prestatyn Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Aberystwyth Town	98.72%	1.28%
Airbus UK	97.41%	2.59%
Newtown	76.54%	23.46%
Carmarthen Town	63.03%	36.97%
Bala Town	37.28%	62.72%
Haverfordwest County	27.02%	72.98%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2010-08-13	Prestatyn Town	W 5-2	37.3	1286	1083	63.72%	22.32%	13.96%	+1.48	+10.1	3
2010-08-13	@ The New Saints	L 2-5	37.3	1083	1286	13.96%	22.32%	63.72%	-1.48	-10.1	0
2010-08-14	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	50.4	1114	1154	34.68%	25.39%	39.94%	-0.12	-9.9	0
2010-08-14	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	50.4	1154	1114	39.94%	25.39%	34.68%	+0.12	+9.9	3
2010-08-14	Neath	W 2-1	40.7	1208	1087	55.53%	24.11%	20.35%	+0.93	+6.8	3
2010-08-14	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	40.7	1087	1208	20.35%	24.11%	55.53%	-0.93	-6.8	0
2010-08-14	Newtown	L 0-1	42.6	1091	1083	41.50%	25.35%	33.15%	+0.19	-12.7	0
2010-08-14	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	42.6	1083	1091	33.15%	25.35%	41.50%	-0.19	+12.7	3
2010-08-15	Bala Town	W 2-0	33.0	1203	1076	56.22%	24.00%	19.78%	+0.97	+13.2	3
2010-08-15	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	33.0	1076	1203	19.78%	24.00%	56.22%	-0.97	-13.2	0
2010-08-15	Llanelli	L 1-2	42.0	1120	1246	24.10%	24.70%	51.20%	-0.68	-7.8	0
2010-08-15	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	42.0	1246	1120	51.20%	24.70%	24.10%	+0.68	+7.8	3
2010-08-20	Newtown	D 2-2	56.8	1164	1095	49.49%	24.87%	25.64%	+0.59	-1.2	4
2010-08-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	56.8	1095	1164	25.64%	24.87%	49.49%	-0.59	+1.2	4
2010-08-20	Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	39.5	1254	1216	45.60%	25.17%	29.23%	+0.39	-37.6	3
2010-08-20	@ Llanelli	W 3-0	39.5	1216	1254	29.23%	25.17%	45.60%	-0.39	+37.6	6
2010-08-21	Airbus UK	L 1-4	42.4	1104	1112	39.25%	25.40%	35.35%	+0.09	-28.2	0
2010-08-21	@ Carmarthen Town	W 4-1	42.4	1112	1104	35.35%	25.40%	39.25%	-0.09	+28.2	3
2010-08-21	Bangor City	L 2-3	46.2	1062	1214	21.49%	24.32%	54.19%	-0.85	-6.7	0
2010-08-21	@ Bala Town	W 3-2	46.2	1214	1062	54.19%	24.32%	21.49%	+0.85	+6.7	6
2010-08-21	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	40.7	1073	1078	39.63%	25.39%	34.98%	+0.11	+11.2	3
2010-08-21	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	40.7	1078	1073	34.98%	25.39%	39.63%	-0.11	-11.2	0
2010-08-27	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	52.6	1253	1076	61.34%	22.95%	15.71%	+1.31	-16.8	6
2010-08-27	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	52.6	1076	1253	15.71%	22.95%	61.34%	-1.31	+16.8	3
2010-08-27	Neath	L 0-3	37.1	1067	1080	38.48%	25.41%	36.12%	+0.05	-32.9	0
2010-08-27	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	37.1	1080	1067	36.12%	25.41%	38.48%	-0.05	+32.9	3
2010-08-28	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	44.0	1140	1163	37.14%	25.41%	37.45%	-0.01	+19.2	6
2010-08-28	@ Airbus UK	L 1-3	44.0	1163	1140	37.45%	25.41%	37.14%	+0.01	-19.2	4
2010-08-28	Llanelli	W 2-0	37.8	1221	1216	41.05%	25.36%	33.58%	+0.17	+20.4	9
2010-08-28	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	37.8	1216	1221	33.58%	25.36%	41.05%	-0.17	-20.4	3
2010-08-28	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	39.9	1097	1084	42.17%	25.33%	32.49%	+0.23	+10.6	7
2010-08-28	@ Newtown	L 0-1	39.9	1084	1097	32.49%	25.33%	42.17%	-0.23	-10.6	3
2010-08-29	Bala Town	W 2-1	37.3	1296	1056	66.88%	21.34%	11.78%	+1.72	+4.0	6
2010-08-29	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	37.3	1056	1296	11.78%	21.34%	66.88%	-1.72	-4.0	0
2010-09-04	Bangor City	L 0-1	36.5	1093	1242	21.79%	24.37%	53.85%	-0.83	-7.6	3
2010-09-04	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	36.5	1242	1093	53.85%	24.37%	21.79%	+0.83	+7.6	12
2010-09-04	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	41.1	1159	1237	29.81%	25.21%	44.98%	-0.36	+25.6	9
2010-09-04	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	41.1	1237	1159	44.98%	25.21%	29.81%	+0.36	-25.6	6
2010-09-04	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	37.7	1144	1073	49.72%	24.85%	25.42%	+0.61	+8.7	7
2010-09-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.7	1073	1144	25.42%	24.85%	49.72%	-0.61	-8.7	3
2010-09-04	The New Saints	W 2-1	49.7	1196	1300	26.54%	24.96%	48.49%	-0.54	+13.6	6
2010-09-04	@ Llanelli	L 1-2	49.7	1300	1196	48.49%	24.96%	26.54%	+0.54	-13.6	6
2010-09-05	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	43.0	1052	1034	42.85%	25.31%	31.84%	+0.26	-13.1	0
2010-09-05	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	43.0	1034	1052	31.84%	25.31%	42.85%	-0.26	+13.1	3
2010-09-05	Newtown	W 5-0	35.0	1113	1107	41.22%	25.36%	33.42%	+0.18	+47.6	6
2010-09-05	@ Neath	L 0-5	35.0	1107	1113	33.42%	25.36%	41.22%	-0.18	-47.6	7
2010-09-10	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	51.6	1211	1152	48.20%	24.99%	26.81%	+0.53	-1.4	7
2010-09-10	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	51.6	1152	1211	26.81%	24.99%	48.20%	-0.53	+1.4	8
2010-09-10	Airbus UK	W 5-1	37.1	1249	1185	48.92%	24.93%	26.16%	+0.56	+26.5	15
2010-09-10	@ Bangor City	L 1-5	37.1	1185	1249	26.16%	24.93%	48.92%	-0.56	-26.5	9
2010-09-11	Bala Town	D 1-1	51.4	1060	1039	43.28%	25.29%	31.43%	+0.28	-0.7	8
2010-09-11	@ Newtown	D 1-1	51.4	1039	1060	31.43%	25.29%	43.28%	-0.28	+0.7	1
2010-09-11	Carmarthen Town	W 7-0	29.6	1286	1085	63.55%	22.37%	14.08%	+1.46	+30.8	9
2010-09-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-7	29.6	1085	1286	14.08%	22.37%	63.55%	-1.46	-30.8	3
2010-09-11	Neath	D 1-1	51.5	1065	1161	27.47%	25.04%	47.49%	-0.49	+1.3	4
2010-09-11	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.5	1161	1065	47.49%	25.04%	27.47%	+0.49	-1.3	7
2010-09-17	Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	56.6	1054	1047	41.40%	25.35%	33.25%	+0.19	-0.4	4
2010-09-17	@ Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	56.6	1047	1054	33.25%	25.35%	41.40%	-0.19	+0.4	4
2010-09-17	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	46.3	1039	1066	36.63%	25.41%	37.97%	-0.03	+11.2	4
2010-09-17	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	46.3	1066	1039	37.97%	25.41%	36.63%	+0.03	-11.2	4
2010-09-17	The New Saints	D 2-2	57.3	1159	1317	20.85%	24.20%	54.95%	-0.90	+1.7	10
2010-09-17	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	57.3	1317	1159	54.95%	24.20%	20.85%	+0.90	-1.7	10
2010-09-18	Bangor City	L 1-2	44.6	1210	1276	31.21%	25.28%	43.51%	-0.29	-9.7	7
2010-09-18	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	44.6	1276	1210	43.51%	25.28%	31.21%	+0.29	+9.6	18
2010-09-18	Neath	D 1-1	51.4	1154	1160	39.59%	25.39%	35.02%	+0.11	-0.3	9
2010-09-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	51.4	1160	1154	35.02%	25.39%	39.59%	-0.11	+0.3	8
2010-09-19	Newtown	W 2-1	39.7	1210	1059	58.71%	23.53%	17.75%	+1.13	+6.0	9
2010-09-19	@ Llanelli	L 1-2	39.7	1059	1210	17.75%	23.53%	58.71%	-1.13	-6.0	8
2010-09-25	Airbus UK	W 4-0	39.5	1047	1160	25.56%	24.87%	49.58%	-0.60	+52.8	7
2010-09-25	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-4	39.5	1160	1047	49.58%	24.87%	25.56%	+0.60	-52.8	10
2010-09-25	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	42.2	1053	1054	40.25%	25.38%	34.37%	+0.14	-12.4	8
2010-09-25	@ Newtown	W 1-0	42.2	1054	1053	34.37%	25.38%	40.25%	-0.14	+12.4	7
2010-09-25	Llanelli	D 1-1	51.8	1055	1216	20.64%	24.17%	55.19%	-0.91	+2.3	5
2010-09-25	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.8	1216	1055	55.19%	24.17%	20.64%	+0.91	-2.3	10
2010-09-25	Port Talbot Town	W 6-1	34.6	1316	1200	55.00%	24.20%	20.80%	+0.90	+26.7	13
2010-09-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	34.6	1200	1316	20.80%	24.20%	55.00%	-0.90	-26.7	7
2010-09-26	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	40.5	1285	1154	56.74%	23.91%	19.35%	+1.01	+6.5	21
2010-09-26	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	40.5	1154	1285	19.35%	23.91%	56.74%	-1.01	-6.5	9
2010-09-26	Bala Town	W 3-1	38.8	1160	1051	54.27%	24.30%	21.42%	+0.86	+12.3	11
2010-09-26	@ Neath	L 1-3	38.8	1051	1160	21.42%	24.30%	54.27%	-0.86	-12.3	4
2010-09-28	Llanelli	L 0-4	32.4	1100	1213	25.53%	24.86%	49.60%	-0.60	-31.2	7
2010-09-28	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	32.4	1213	1100	49.60%	24.86%	25.53%	+0.60	+31.2	13
2010-10-01	Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	31.8	1173	1069	53.71%	24.38%	21.90%	+0.83	+21.0	10
2010-10-01	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	31.8	1069	1173	21.90%	24.38%	53.71%	-0.83	-21.0	7
2010-10-01	Neath	L 1-4	45.7	1244	1172	49.93%	24.83%	25.23%	+0.62	-34.3	13
2010-10-01	@ Llanelli	W 4-1	45.7	1172	1244	25.23%	24.83%	49.93%	-0.62	+34.3	14
2010-10-02	Bala Town	W 2-1	41.0	1147	1038	54.23%	24.31%	21.46%	+0.86	+7.1	12
2010-10-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	41.0	1038	1147	21.46%	24.31%	54.23%	-0.86	-7.1	4
2010-10-02	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	44.7	1066	1057	41.69%	25.35%	32.96%	+0.20	+10.1	10
2010-10-02	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	44.7	1057	1066	32.96%	25.35%	41.69%	-0.20	-10.1	5
2010-10-02	The New Saints	W 4-3	56.9	1292	1342	33.28%	25.36%	41.37%	-0.19	+11.1	24
2010-10-02	@ Bangor City	L 3-4	56.9	1342	1292	41.37%	25.36%	33.28%	+0.19	-11.1	13
2010-10-09	Bangor City	L 1-2	38.0	1048	1303	13.45%	22.11%	64.44%	-1.53	-4.6	7
2010-10-09	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	38.0	1303	1048	64.44%	22.11%	13.45%	+1.53	+4.6	27
2010-10-09	Llanelli	W 1-0	46.9	1031	1210	19.03%	23.84%	57.13%	-1.03	+16.7	7
2010-10-09	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	46.9	1210	1031	57.13%	23.84%	19.03%	+1.03	-16.7	13
2010-10-09	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.0	1040	1194	21.32%	24.29%	54.39%	-0.86	+2.5	9
2010-10-09	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.0	1194	1040	54.39%	24.29%	21.32%	+0.86	-2.5	11
2010-10-10	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-0	29.3	1331	1154	61.30%	22.96%	15.74%	+1.30	+25.0	16
2010-10-10	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	29.3	1154	1331	15.74%	22.96%	61.30%	-1.30	-25.0	12
2010-10-10	Airbus UK	D 1-1	51.4	1047	1108	31.92%	25.31%	42.77%	-0.26	+0.7	6
2010-10-10	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.4	1108	1047	42.77%	25.31%	31.92%	+0.26	-0.7	11
2010-10-10	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	40.4	1206	1076	56.55%	23.94%	19.51%	+0.99	+6.5	17
2010-10-10	@ Neath	L 1-2	40.4	1076	1206	19.51%	23.94%	56.55%	-0.99	-6.5	10
2010-10-15	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	54.6	1193	1129	48.93%	24.93%	26.15%	+0.56	-13.0	13
2010-10-15	@ Llanelli	W 3-2	54.6	1129	1193	26.15%	24.93%	48.93%	-0.56	+13.0	15
2010-10-16	Bala Town	W 4-1	40.0	1070	1048	43.41%	25.28%	31.31%	+0.29	+23.7	13
2010-10-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-4	40.0	1048	1070	31.31%	25.28%	43.41%	-0.29	-23.7	7
2010-10-16	Haverfordwest County	W 6-1	29.1	1356	1043	72.33%	19.21%	8.45%	+2.19	+10.9	19
2010-10-16	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	29.1	1043	1356	8.45%	19.21%	72.33%	-2.19	-10.9	7
2010-10-16	Newtown	W 5-2	35.8	1307	1043	68.80%	20.66%	10.54%	+1.88	+7.6	30
2010-10-16	@ Bangor City	L 2-5	35.8	1043	1307	10.54%	20.66%	68.80%	-1.88	-7.6	9
2010-10-17	Neath	D 2-2	56.8	1107	1213	26.34%	24.94%	48.72%	-0.55	+1.1	12
2010-10-17	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	56.8	1213	1107	48.72%	24.94%	26.34%	+0.55	-1.1	18
2010-10-17	Prestatyn Town	L 0-3	42.5	1192	1047	58.05%	23.67%	18.29%	+1.09	-46.4	11
2010-10-17	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	42.5	1047	1192	18.29%	23.67%	58.05%	-1.09	+46.4	9
2010-10-20	Newtown	D 1-1	51.5	1108	1035	49.97%	24.83%	25.21%	+0.62	-1.6	13
2010-10-20	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	51.5	1035	1108	25.21%	24.83%	49.97%	-0.62	+1.6	10
2010-10-22	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	56.7	1142	1094	46.96%	25.08%	27.96%	+0.46	-0.9	16
2010-10-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	56.7	1094	1142	27.96%	25.08%	46.96%	-0.46	+0.9	14
2010-10-22	The New Saints	D 0-0	49.0	1094	1367	12.37%	21.63%	66.00%	-1.65	+4.2	10
2010-10-22	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	49.0	1367	1094	66.00%	21.63%	12.37%	+1.65	-4.2	20
2010-10-23	Bangor City	L 1-2	43.3	1212	1315	26.65%	24.97%	48.38%	-0.53	-8.5	18
2010-10-23	@ Neath	W 2-1	43.3	1315	1212	48.38%	24.97%	26.65%	+0.53	+8.5	33
2010-10-23	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	51.3	1037	1032	41.01%	25.36%	33.63%	+0.17	-0.5	11
2010-10-23	@ Newtown	D 1-1	51.3	1032	1037	33.63%	25.36%	41.01%	-0.17	+0.5	8
2010-10-24	Airbus UK	D 1-1	51.6	1180	1106	50.15%	24.81%	25.04%	+0.63	-1.6	14
2010-10-24	@ Llanelli	D 1-1	51.6	1106	1180	25.04%	24.81%	50.15%	-0.63	+1.6	14
2010-10-24	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	47.8	1024	1145	24.66%	24.77%	50.57%	-0.65	+1.9	8
2010-10-24	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	47.8	1145	1024	50.57%	24.77%	24.66%	+0.65	-1.9	12
2010-10-29	Bala Town	W 3-0	26.7	1324	1026	71.25%	19.68%	9.07%	+2.09	+8.8	36
2010-10-29	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	26.7	1026	1324	9.07%	19.68%	71.25%	-2.09	-8.8	8
2010-10-30	Carmarthen Town	L 2-4	49.7	1108	1094	42.26%	25.33%	32.41%	+0.23	-18.9	14
2010-10-30	@ Airbus UK	W 4-2	49.7	1094	1108	32.41%	25.33%	42.26%	-0.23	+18.9	17
2010-10-30	Llanelli	D 1-1	51.4	1143	1179	35.36%	25.40%	39.24%	-0.09	+0.2	13
2010-10-30	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	51.4	1179	1143	39.24%	25.40%	35.36%	+0.09	-0.2	15
2010-10-30	Prestatyn Town	L 2-3	49.3	1033	1098	31.33%	25.29%	43.38%	-0.28	-9.2	8
2010-10-30	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	49.3	1098	1033	43.38%	25.29%	31.33%	+0.28	+9.2	13
2010-10-31	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	47.7	1036	1141	26.47%	24.96%	48.58%	-0.54	+1.6	12
2010-10-31	@ Newtown	D 0-0	47.7	1141	1036	48.58%	24.96%	26.47%	+0.54	-1.6	17
2010-10-31	Neath	W 3-1	37.9	1363	1203	59.62%	23.34%	17.04%	+1.19	+10.0	23
2010-10-31	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	37.9	1203	1363	17.04%	23.34%	59.62%	-1.19	-10.0	18
2010-11-12	Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	29.0	1193	1024	60.58%	23.13%	16.29%	+1.25	+21.0	21
2010-11-12	@ Neath	L 0-4	29.0	1024	1193	16.29%	23.13%	60.58%	-1.25	-21.0	8
2010-11-12	Newtown	W 2-1	42.4	1107	1038	49.55%	24.87%	25.58%	+0.60	+8.2	16
2010-11-12	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	42.4	1038	1107	25.58%	24.87%	49.55%	-0.60	-8.2	12
2010-11-12	Port Talbot Town	L 1-3	43.6	1113	1144	36.07%	25.41%	38.52%	-0.06	-18.7	17
2010-11-12	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	43.6	1144	1113	38.52%	25.41%	36.07%	+0.06	+18.7	16
2010-11-12	The New Saints	L 3-4	44.1	1017	1373	8.48%	19.24%	72.28%	-2.19	-2.6	8
2010-11-12	@ Bala Town	W 4-3	44.1	1373	1017	72.28%	19.24%	8.48%	+2.19	+2.6	26
2010-11-20	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	36.1	1116	1140	36.93%	25.41%	37.66%	-0.02	+42.3	19
2010-11-20	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-4	36.1	1140	1116	37.66%	25.41%	36.93%	+0.02	-42.3	17
2010-11-20	Airbus UK	W 2-0	34.9	1162	1089	50.05%	24.82%	25.13%	+0.62	+16.2	19
2010-11-20	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	34.9	1089	1162	25.13%	24.82%	50.05%	-0.62	-16.2	14
2010-11-20	Bala Town	L 0-1	41.8	1003	1015	38.70%	25.40%	35.89%	+0.06	-12.1	8
2010-11-20	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	41.8	1015	1003	35.89%	25.40%	38.70%	-0.06	+12.1	11
2010-11-20	Carmarthen Town	W 5-0	27.6	1332	1095	66.67%	21.41%	11.92%	+1.70	+19.0	39
2010-11-20	@ Bangor City	L 0-5	27.6	1095	1332	11.92%	21.41%	66.67%	-1.70	-19.0	17
2010-11-20	Neath	L 3-6	40.5	1030	1214	18.56%	23.73%	57.71%	-1.07	-12.2	12
2010-11-20	@ Newtown	W 6-3	40.5	1214	1030	57.71%	23.73%	18.56%	+1.07	+12.2	24
2010-11-24	The New Saints	D 1-1	52.6	1226	1376	21.77%	24.36%	53.86%	-0.83	+2.1	25
2010-11-24	@ Neath	D 1-1	52.6	1376	1226	53.86%	24.36%	21.77%	+0.83	-2.1	27
2010-11-26	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	56.7	1097	1179	29.32%	25.18%	45.50%	-0.39	+0.8	18
2010-11-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	56.7	1179	1097	45.50%	25.18%	29.32%	+0.39	-0.8	20
2010-12-04	Airbus UK	W 2-0	28.7	1373	1073	71.47%	19.59%	8.94%	+2.11	+6.0	30
2010-12-04	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	28.7	1073	1373	8.94%	19.59%	71.47%	-2.11	-6.0	14
2010-12-04	Port Talbot Town	W 8-1	32.3	1351	1178	60.97%	23.04%	15.99%	+1.28	+28.7	42
2010-12-04	@ Bangor City	L 1-8	32.3	1178	1351	15.99%	23.04%	60.97%	-1.28	-28.7	20
2010-12-11	Bangor City	L 1-3	35.4	1098	1380	11.89%	21.40%	66.71%	-1.70	-7.0	18
2010-12-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	35.4	1380	1098	66.71%	21.40%	11.89%	+1.70	+7.0	45
2010-12-11	Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	32.0	1067	991	50.40%	24.78%	24.82%	+0.64	+30.5	17
2010-12-11	@ Airbus UK	L 0-4	32.0	991	1067	24.82%	24.78%	50.40%	-0.64	-30.5	8
2010-12-11	Newtown	D 1-1	51.5	1076	1018	48.15%	24.99%	26.85%	+0.52	-1.4	18
2010-12-11	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	51.5	1018	1076	26.85%	24.99%	48.15%	-0.52	+1.4	13
2010-12-11	The New Saints	L 0-2	31.7	1149	1379	15.05%	22.73%	62.22%	-1.37	-10.2	20
2010-12-11	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	31.7	1379	1149	62.22%	22.73%	15.05%	+1.37	+10.2	33
2010-12-12	Neath	L 0-2	32.0	1027	1229	17.14%	23.37%	59.48%	-1.18	-11.6	11
2010-12-12	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	32.0	1229	1027	59.48%	23.37%	17.14%	+1.18	+11.6	28
2010-12-14	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.0	1097	1387	11.47%	21.18%	67.36%	-1.76	+3.9	18
2010-12-14	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.0	1387	1097	67.36%	21.18%	11.47%	+1.76	-3.9	46
2010-12-29	Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	54.7	960	1074	25.43%	24.85%	49.71%	-0.60	+13.2	11
2010-12-29	@ Haverfordwest County	L 2-3	54.7	1074	960	49.71%	24.85%	25.43%	+0.60	-13.2	18
2010-12-29	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	38.2	1383	1158	65.63%	21.75%	12.62%	+1.62	+4.3	49
2010-12-29	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	38.2	1158	1383	12.62%	21.75%	65.63%	-1.62	-4.3	19
2011-01-01	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	43.6	1091	973	55.23%	24.16%	20.61%	+0.91	-30.6	18
2011-01-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	43.6	973	1091	20.61%	24.16%	55.23%	-0.91	+30.6	14
2011-01-01	Llanelli	L 1-3	40.1	1061	1179	25.05%	24.81%	50.14%	-0.63	-14.0	18
2011-01-01	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	40.1	1179	1061	50.14%	24.81%	25.05%	+0.63	+14.0	18
2011-01-01	Newtown	W 4-0	24.5	1390	1019	76.11%	17.41%	6.48%	+2.57	+7.9	36
2011-01-01	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	24.5	1019	1390	6.48%	17.41%	76.11%	-2.57	-7.9	13
2011-01-02	Airbus UK	L 1-2	43.4	1015	1101	28.70%	25.14%	46.17%	-0.42	-9.0	11
2011-01-02	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	43.4	1101	1015	46.17%	25.14%	28.70%	+0.42	+9.0	21
2011-01-02	Bangor City	W 4-2	55.6	1153	1387	14.80%	22.64%	62.56%	-1.39	+26.5	22
2011-01-02	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-4	55.6	1387	1153	62.56%	22.64%	14.80%	+1.39	-26.5	49
2011-01-02	Neath	L 1-3	40.8	1139	1240	26.88%	24.99%	48.13%	-0.52	-14.8	20
2011-01-02	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	40.8	1240	1139	48.13%	24.99%	26.88%	+0.52	+14.8	31
2011-01-05	Bangor City	W 2-0	44.5	1193	1361	19.95%	24.03%	56.01%	-0.96	+31.0	21
2011-01-05	@ Llanelli	L 0-2	44.5	1361	1193	56.01%	24.03%	19.95%	+0.96	-30.9	49
2011-01-05	Newtown	W 4-1	41.1	1006	1011	39.70%	25.39%	34.91%	+0.11	+25.8	14
2011-01-05	@ Bala Town	L 1-4	41.1	1011	1006	34.91%	25.39%	39.70%	-0.11	-25.8	13
2011-01-07	Neath	L 0-3	30.0	1047	1255	16.67%	23.24%	60.09%	-1.22	-16.4	18
2011-01-07	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	30.0	1255	1047	60.09%	23.24%	16.67%	+1.22	+16.4	34
2011-01-07	Prestatyn Town	L 3-4	52.5	1110	1180	30.75%	25.26%	43.99%	-0.31	-8.8	21
2011-01-07	@ Airbus UK	W 4-3	52.5	1180	1110	43.99%	25.26%	30.75%	+0.31	+8.8	25
2011-01-08	Bala Town	W 3-1	36.3	1223	1032	62.66%	22.61%	14.73%	+1.40	+8.7	24
2011-01-08	@ Llanelli	L 1-3	36.3	1032	1223	14.73%	22.61%	62.66%	-1.40	-8.7	14
2011-01-08	Haverfordwest County	W 6-0	26.0	1330	1004	73.23%	18.81%	7.96%	+2.28	+14.6	52
2011-01-08	@ Bangor City	L 0-6	26.0	1004	1330	7.96%	18.81%	73.23%	-2.28	-14.6	14
2011-01-08	Newtown	W 3-0	30.7	1124	985	57.48%	23.77%	18.75%	+1.05	+18.3	23
2011-01-08	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	30.7	985	1124	18.75%	23.77%	57.48%	-1.05	-18.3	13
2011-01-08	The New Saints	L 0-2	28.9	1061	1398	9.24%	19.81%	70.95%	-2.06	-6.2	18
2011-01-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	28.9	1398	1061	70.95%	19.81%	9.24%	+2.06	+6.2	39
2011-01-11	Airbus UK	W 2-1	47.1	1054	1101	33.76%	25.37%	40.87%	-0.17	+11.9	21
2011-01-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	47.1	1101	1054	40.87%	25.37%	33.76%	+0.17	-11.9	21
2011-01-11	Bala Town	W 2-0	31.8	1189	1023	60.20%	23.22%	16.59%	+1.23	+11.2	28
2011-01-11	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-2	31.8	1023	1189	16.59%	23.22%	60.20%	-1.23	-11.2	14
2011-01-11	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	37.2	1232	989	67.07%	21.28%	11.65%	+1.73	+4.0	27
2011-01-11	@ Llanelli	L 1-2	37.2	989	1232	11.65%	21.28%	67.07%	-1.73	-4.0	14
2011-01-12	The New Saints	L 1-3	33.3	1031	1404	7.83%	18.70%	73.48%	-2.30	-4.5	18
2011-01-12	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	33.3	1404	1031	73.48%	18.70%	7.83%	+2.30	+4.5	42
2011-01-15	Airbus UK	W 1-0	34.1	1271	1090	61.75%	22.84%	15.40%	+1.33	+5.5	37
2011-01-15	@ Neath	L 0-1	34.1	1090	1271	15.40%	22.84%	61.75%	-1.33	-5.5	21
2011-01-15	Bangor City	L 0-1	30.5	967	1345	7.66%	18.56%	73.78%	-2.33	-2.7	13
2011-01-15	@ Newtown	W 1-0	30.5	1345	967	73.78%	18.56%	7.66%	+2.33	+2.7	55
2011-01-15	Llanelli	L 0-2	33.1	1066	1236	19.83%	24.01%	56.16%	-0.97	-13.2	21
2011-01-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	33.1	1236	1066	56.16%	24.01%	19.83%	+0.97	+13.2	30
2011-01-15	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	51.6	1200	1142	48.12%	24.99%	26.89%	+0.52	-1.4	29
2011-01-15	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.6	1142	1200	26.89%	24.99%	48.12%	-0.52	+1.4	24
2011-01-15	The New Saints	L 1-4	30.2	985	1408	6.22%	17.14%	76.64%	-2.63	-4.9	14
2011-01-15	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	30.2	1408	985	76.64%	17.14%	6.22%	+2.63	+4.9	45
2011-01-18	Bangor City	D 2-2	59.5	1413	1347	49.13%	24.91%	25.96%	+0.57	-1.1	46
2011-01-18	@ The New Saints	D 2-2	59.5	1347	1413	25.96%	24.91%	49.13%	-0.57	+1.1	56
2011-01-18	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.3	1199	1026	60.87%	23.06%	16.07%	+1.27	-3.4	30
2011-01-18	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	48.3	1026	1199	16.07%	23.06%	60.87%	-1.27	+3.4	19
2011-01-18	Llanelli	D 1-1	51.9	1277	1249	44.18%	25.25%	30.57%	+0.32	-0.9	38
2011-01-18	@ Neath	D 1-1	51.9	1249	1277	30.57%	25.25%	44.18%	-0.32	+0.9	31
2011-01-21	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	50.3	1012	1053	34.56%	25.39%	40.05%	-0.13	-9.9	14
2011-01-21	@ Bala Town	W 3-2	50.3	1053	1012	40.05%	25.39%	34.56%	+0.13	+9.9	24
2011-01-23	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.3	1276	1195	50.97%	24.72%	24.30%	+0.67	+7.9	41
2011-01-23	@ Neath	L 1-2	42.3	1195	1276	24.30%	24.72%	50.97%	-0.67	-7.9	30
2011-01-25	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	45.8	1002	1030	36.46%	25.41%	38.13%	-0.04	-10.9	14
2011-01-25	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	45.8	1030	1002	38.13%	25.41%	36.46%	+0.04	+10.9	22
2011-01-25	Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	35.9	981	1144	20.45%	24.13%	55.43%	-0.93	-7.2	14
2011-01-25	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	35.9	1144	981	55.43%	24.13%	20.45%	+0.93	+7.2	27
2011-01-26	Llanelli	D 0-0	48.8	964	1250	11.67%	21.28%	67.05%	-1.73	+4.3	14
2011-01-26	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.8	1250	964	67.05%	21.28%	11.67%	+1.73	-4.3	32
2011-01-29	Airbus UK	L 2-3	47.4	969	1084	25.28%	24.84%	49.88%	-0.61	-7.7	14
2011-01-29	@ Newtown	W 3-2	47.4	1084	969	49.88%	24.84%	25.28%	+0.61	+7.7	24
2011-01-30	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.5	1284	1063	65.26%	21.87%	12.88%	+1.59	-3.7	42
2011-01-30	@ Neath	D 1-1	52.5	1063	1284	12.88%	21.87%	65.26%	-1.59	+3.7	25
2011-02-01	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.0	1246	1187	48.21%	24.99%	26.80%	+0.53	-1.0	33
2011-02-01	@ Llanelli	D 2-2	57.0	1187	1246	26.80%	24.99%	48.21%	-0.53	+1.0	31
2011-02-05	Bala Town	L 1-2	50.6	1092	991	53.29%	24.44%	22.27%	+0.80	-14.8	24
2011-02-05	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	50.6	991	1092	22.27%	24.44%	53.29%	-0.80	+14.8	17
2011-02-08	Llanelli	W 2-0	33.1	1412	1245	60.35%	23.18%	16.47%	+1.24	+11.2	49
2011-02-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	33.1	1245	1412	16.47%	23.18%	60.35%	-1.24	-11.2	33
2011-02-08	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	40.6	1280	1151	56.50%	23.95%	19.55%	+0.99	+6.5	45
2011-02-08	@ Neath	L 1-2	40.6	1151	1280	19.55%	23.95%	56.50%	-0.99	-6.5	27
2011-02-12	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	47.7	973	1067	27.82%	25.07%	47.11%	-0.47	+1.4	15
2011-02-12	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	47.7	1067	973	47.11%	25.07%	27.82%	+0.47	-1.4	26
2011-02-12	Carmarthen Town	W 4-1	34.2	1234	1040	62.81%	22.57%	14.62%	+1.41	+12.2	36
2011-02-12	@ Llanelli	L 1-4	34.2	1040	1234	14.62%	22.57%	62.81%	-1.41	-12.2	22
2011-02-12	The New Saints	D 2-2	59.6	961	1423	5.18%	15.89%	78.93%	-2.89	+3.9	15
2011-02-12	@ Newtown	D 2-2	59.6	1423	961	78.93%	15.89%	5.18%	+2.89	-3.9	50

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2011-02-18	Bala Town	L 1-2	49.2	1065	1006	48.31%	24.98%	26.71%	+0.53	-13.6	0
2011-02-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	49.2	1006	1065	26.71%	24.98%	48.31%	-0.53	+13.6	3
2011-02-19	Airbus UK	L 1-2	44.9	1028	1077	33.53%	25.36%	41.11%	-0.18	-10.2	0
2011-02-19	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	44.9	1077	1028	41.11%	25.36%	33.53%	+0.18	+10.2	3
2011-02-19	Haverfordwest County	D 4-4	63.2	965	975	38.98%	25.40%	35.62%	+0.08	-0.1	1
2011-02-19	@ Newtown	D 4-4	63.2	975	965	35.62%	25.40%	38.98%	-0.08	+0.1	1
2011-02-19	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.6	1419	1144	69.60%	20.35%	10.05%	+1.94	-4.2	1
2011-02-19	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	53.6	1144	1419	10.05%	20.35%	69.60%	-1.94	+4.2	1
2011-02-20	Bangor City	L 1-2	41.3	1188	1348	20.72%	24.18%	55.10%	-0.91	-6.9	0
2011-02-20	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	41.3	1348	1188	55.10%	24.18%	20.72%	+0.91	+6.9	3
2011-02-20	Llanelli	L 0-4	39.0	1287	1246	45.95%	25.15%	28.90%	+0.41	-49.5	0
2011-02-20	@ Neath	W 4-0	39.0	1246	1287	28.90%	25.15%	45.95%	-0.41	+49.5	3
2011-03-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-3	48.2	1087	1052	45.22%	25.19%	29.58%	+0.37	+13.5	6
2011-03-04	@ Airbus UK	L 3-5	48.2	1052	1087	29.58%	25.19%	45.22%	-0.37	-13.5	0
2011-03-04	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	47.0	975	1018	34.26%	25.38%	40.36%	-0.14	+11.8	4
2011-03-04	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	47.0	1018	975	40.36%	25.38%	34.26%	+0.14	-11.7	0
2011-03-04	Newtown	L 0-2	41.7	1020	965	47.76%	25.02%	27.22%	+0.50	-26.9	3
2011-03-04	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	41.7	965	1020	27.22%	25.02%	47.76%	-0.50	+26.9	4
2011-03-05	Neath	L 1-2	51.9	1355	1237	55.25%	24.16%	20.60%	+0.92	-15.3	3
2011-03-05	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	51.9	1237	1355	20.60%	24.16%	55.25%	-0.92	+15.3	3
2011-03-11	Airbus UK	L 0-3	33.2	993	1101	26.11%	24.92%	48.97%	-0.57	-24.3	3
2011-03-11	@ Bala Town	W 3-0	33.2	1101	993	48.97%	24.92%	26.11%	+0.57	+24.3	9
2011-03-11	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	43.0	1038	987	47.33%	25.06%	27.62%	+0.48	+8.8	3
2011-03-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	43.0	987	1038	27.62%	25.06%	47.33%	-0.48	-8.8	4
2011-03-11	Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	28.2	1415	1181	66.32%	21.53%	12.15%	+1.67	+15.7	4
2011-03-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	28.2	1181	1415	12.15%	21.53%	66.32%	-1.67	-15.7	0
2011-03-12	Bangor City	D 2-2	57.8	1295	1340	34.07%	25.38%	40.56%	-0.15	+0.3	4
2011-03-12	@ Llanelli	D 2-2	57.8	1340	1295	40.56%	25.38%	34.07%	+0.15	-0.3	4
2011-03-12	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	41.6	992	1006	38.29%	25.41%	36.30%	+0.05	-12.0	4
2011-03-12	@ Newtown	W 1-0	41.6	1006	992	36.30%	25.41%	38.29%	-0.05	+12.0	3
2011-03-13	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.1	1253	1148	53.70%	24.39%	21.91%	+0.83	-2.4	4
2011-03-13	@ Neath	D 0-0	48.1	1148	1253	21.91%	24.39%	53.70%	-0.83	+2.3	2
2011-03-18	Llanelli	D 0-0	48.2	1151	1296	22.19%	24.43%	53.38%	-0.81	+2.3	3
2011-03-18	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.2	1296	1151	53.38%	24.43%	22.19%	+0.81	-2.3	5
2011-03-18	Newtown	D 2-2	56.7	1047	980	49.31%	24.89%	25.80%	+0.58	-1.1	4
2011-03-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	56.7	980	1047	25.80%	24.89%	49.31%	-0.58	+1.1	5
2011-03-19	Bala Town	W 3-1	40.9	1018	968	47.12%	25.07%	27.81%	+0.47	+15.3	6
2011-03-19	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	40.9	968	1018	27.81%	25.07%	47.12%	-0.47	-15.3	3
2011-03-19	Bangor City	W 3-2	49.7	1431	1340	52.19%	24.58%	23.23%	+0.74	+7.2	7
2011-03-19	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	49.7	1340	1431	23.23%	24.58%	52.19%	-0.74	-7.2	4
2011-03-19	Neath	D 1-1	51.6	1166	1250	28.89%	25.15%	45.96%	-0.41	+1.1	1
2011-03-19	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.6	1250	1166	45.96%	25.15%	28.89%	+0.41	-1.1	5
2011-03-20	Haverfordwest County	W 5-0	29.8	1125	978	58.36%	23.60%	18.04%	+1.11	+28.4	12
2011-03-20	@ Airbus UK	L 0-5	29.8	978	1125	18.04%	23.60%	58.36%	-1.11	-28.4	4
2011-03-25	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	41.8	1034	1046	38.66%	25.40%	35.93%	+0.06	-12.1	6
2011-03-25	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	41.8	1046	1034	35.93%	25.40%	38.66%	-0.06	+12.0	7
2011-03-25	Airbus UK	W 1-0	46.7	981	1153	19.58%	23.96%	56.47%	-0.99	+16.5	8
2011-03-25	@ Newtown	L 0-1	46.7	1153	981	56.47%	23.96%	19.58%	+0.99	-16.5	12
2011-03-25	Llanelli	L 1-2	42.2	1167	1293	24.08%	24.70%	51.23%	-0.69	-7.8	1
2011-03-25	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.2	1293	1167	51.23%	24.70%	24.08%	+0.69	+7.8	8
2011-03-25	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	57.7	1333	1153	61.53%	22.90%	15.57%	+1.32	-2.4	5
2011-03-25	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	57.7	1153	1333	15.57%	22.90%	61.53%	-1.32	+2.4	4
2011-03-25	The New Saints	D 2-2	58.8	1249	1438	18.19%	23.64%	58.16%	-1.09	+2.0	6
2011-03-25	@ Neath	D 2-2	58.8	1438	1249	58.16%	23.64%	18.19%	+1.09	-2.0	8
2011-03-27	Bala Town	L 2-3	51.9	949	953	39.87%	25.39%	34.74%	+0.12	-11.0	4
2011-03-27	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	51.9	953	949	34.74%	25.39%	39.87%	-0.12	+11.0	6
2011-03-29	The New Saints	L 0-2	36.6	1301	1436	23.20%	24.58%	52.22%	-0.74	-15.2	8
2011-03-29	@ Llanelli	W 2-0	36.6	1436	1301	52.22%	24.58%	23.20%	+0.74	+15.2	11
2011-04-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	48.9	964	1058	27.78%	25.07%	47.15%	-0.47	+13.3	9
2011-04-01	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	48.9	1058	964	47.15%	25.07%	27.78%	+0.47	-13.3	7
2011-04-01	Neath	W 4-0	34.2	1286	1251	45.13%	25.20%	29.67%	+0.37	+35.2	11
2011-04-01	@ Llanelli	L 0-4	34.2	1251	1286	29.67%	25.20%	45.13%	-0.37	-35.2	6
2011-04-01	Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	52.8	1330	1159	60.74%	23.09%	16.17%	+1.26	-16.6	5
2011-04-01	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	52.8	1159	1330	16.17%	23.09%	60.74%	-1.26	+16.6	4
2011-04-02	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.0	1137	1022	54.96%	24.20%	20.84%	+0.90	-2.5	13
2011-04-02	@ Airbus UK	D 0-0	48.0	1022	1137	20.84%	24.20%	54.96%	-0.90	+2.5	7
2011-04-02	Newtown	L 1-4	40.2	938	997	32.16%	25.32%	42.52%	-0.24	-24.2	4
2011-04-02	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	40.2	997	938	42.52%	25.32%	32.16%	+0.24	+24.2	11
2011-04-02	The New Saints	D 0-0	49.9	1156	1451	11.16%	21.01%	67.83%	-1.79	+4.5	5
2011-04-02	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	49.9	1451	1156	67.83%	21.01%	11.16%	+1.79	-4.5	12
2011-04-08	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	36.2	1024	914	54.35%	24.29%	21.36%	+0.86	+7.5	10
2011-04-08	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	36.2	914	1024	21.36%	24.29%	54.35%	-0.86	-7.5	4
2011-04-09	Bala Town	W 2-1	43.3	1021	977	46.35%	25.13%	28.52%	+0.43	+9.0	14
2011-04-09	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.3	977	1021	28.52%	25.13%	46.35%	-0.43	-9.0	9
2011-04-09	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	37.2	1176	1160	42.57%	25.32%	32.11%	+0.25	+19.8	7
2011-04-09	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-2	37.2	1160	1176	32.11%	25.32%	42.57%	-0.25	-19.8	5
2011-04-10	Airbus UK	W 2-0	41.4	1045	1134	28.24%	25.10%	46.65%	-0.45	+26.4	10
2011-04-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	41.4	1134	1045	46.65%	25.10%	28.24%	+0.45	-26.4	13
2011-04-15	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	38.4	907	1071	20.34%	24.11%	55.56%	-0.93	-11.7	4
2011-04-15	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	38.4	1071	907	55.56%	24.11%	20.34%	+0.93	+11.7	13
2011-04-15	Bala Town	D 1-1	51.8	1108	968	57.56%	23.76%	18.68%	+1.06	-2.6	14
2011-04-15	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	51.8	968	1108	18.68%	23.76%	57.56%	-1.06	+2.6	10
2011-04-15	The New Saints	L 0-2	31.9	1195	1447	13.68%	22.21%	64.12%	-1.50	-9.3	7
2011-04-15	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	31.9	1447	1195	64.12%	22.21%	13.68%	+1.50	+9.3	15
2011-04-16	Llanelli	L 2-5	46.9	1314	1321	39.30%	25.40%	35.30%	+0.09	-24.4	5
2011-04-16	@ Bangor City	W 5-2	46.9	1321	1314	35.30%	25.40%	39.30%	-0.09	+24.4	14
2011-04-16	Neath	L 1-2	43.9	1140	1216	29.97%	25.22%	44.81%	-0.35	-9.4	5
2011-04-16	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	43.9	1216	1140	44.81%	25.22%	29.97%	+0.35	+9.4	9
2011-04-16	Newtown	W 2-1	45.1	1032	1030	40.54%	25.38%	34.09%	+0.15	+10.3	13
2011-04-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	45.1	1030	1032	34.09%	25.38%	40.54%	-0.15	-10.3	14
2011-04-22	Neath	L 2-3	60.3	1456	1225	66.08%	21.61%	12.32%	+1.65	-17.0	15
2011-04-22	@ The New Saints	W 3-2	60.3	1225	1456	12.32%	21.61%	66.08%	-1.65	+17.0	12
2011-04-22	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	30.6	1346	1186	59.60%	23.35%	17.06%	+1.19	+16.7	17
2011-04-22	@ Llanelli	L 0-3	30.6	1186	1346	17.06%	23.35%	59.60%	-1.19	-16.7	7
2011-04-23	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	43.0	1020	1083	31.68%	25.30%	43.02%	-0.27	+13.1	17
2011-04-23	@ Newtown	L 0-1	43.0	1083	1020	43.02%	25.30%	31.68%	+0.27	-13.1	13
2011-04-23	Airbus UK	L 0-2	31.7	895	1105	16.49%	23.19%	60.32%	-1.24	-11.2	4
2011-04-23	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	31.7	1105	895	60.32%	23.19%	16.49%	+1.24	+11.2	17
2011-04-23	Bangor City	L 1-2	41.0	1131	1289	20.89%	24.21%	54.90%	-0.89	-6.9	5
2011-04-23	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	41.0	1289	1131	54.90%	24.21%	20.89%	+0.89	+6.9	8
2011-04-24	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	38.0	971	1042	30.61%	25.25%	44.14%	-0.32	+47.9	13
2011-04-24	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	38.0	1042	971	44.14%	25.25%	30.61%	+0.32	-47.9	13
2011-04-25	Bangor City	L 1-2	45.3	1242	1296	32.86%	25.34%	41.80%	-0.21	-10.1	12
2011-04-25	@ Neath	W 2-1	45.3	1296	1242	41.80%	25.34%	32.86%	+0.21	+10.0	11
2011-04-25	Llanelli	W 3-1	43.6	1439	1362	50.46%	24.78%	24.76%	+0.64	+13.9	18
2011-04-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	43.6	1362	1439	24.76%	24.78%	50.46%	-0.64	-13.9	17
2011-04-25	Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.4	1124	1169	33.96%	25.37%	40.66%	-0.16	+0.4	6
2011-04-25	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	51.4	1169	1124	40.66%	25.37%	33.96%	+0.16	-0.4	8
2011-04-30	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	37.4	1070	994	50.32%	24.79%	24.89%	+0.64	+8.5	16
2011-04-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.4	994	1070	24.89%	24.79%	50.32%	-0.64	-8.5	13
2011-04-30	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	32.7	1019	884	57.10%	23.84%	19.05%	+1.03	+12.8	16
2011-04-30	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	32.7	884	1019	19.05%	23.84%	57.10%	-1.03	-12.8	4
2011-04-30	Newtown	L 0-3	40.7	1116	1033	51.26%	24.69%	24.05%	+0.69	-41.6	17
2011-04-30	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	40.7	1033	1116	24.05%	24.69%	51.26%	-0.69	+41.6	20
2011-04-30	Port Talbot Town	L 2-3	58.9	1348	1124	65.53%	21.78%	12.69%	+1.61	-16.9	17
2011-04-30	@ Llanelli	W 3-2	58.9	1124	1348	12.69%	21.78%	65.53%	-1.61	+16.9	9
2011-04-30	Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	51.7	1232	1169	48.82%	24.94%	26.24%	+0.56	-1.5	13
2011-04-30	@ Neath	D 1-1	51.7	1169	1232	26.24%	24.94%	48.82%	-0.56	+1.5	9
2011-04-30	The New Saints	W 1-0	48.7	1306	1453	22.00%	24.40%	53.61%	-0.82	+15.8	14
2011-04-30	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	48.7	1453	1306	53.61%	24.40%	22.00%	+0.82	-15.8	18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-04-22	12.32%	Neath	1225	3	@ The New Saints	1456	2
2	2011-04-30	12.69%	Port Talbot Town	1124	3	@ Llanelli	1348	2
3	2011-01-02	14.80%	@ Prestatyn Town	1153	4	Bangor City	1387	2
4	2010-08-27	15.71%	Carmarthen Town	1076	2	@ Port Talbot Town	1253	1
5	2011-04-01	16.17%	Prestatyn Town	1159	2	@ Bangor City	1330	1
6	2010-10-17	18.29%	Prestatyn Town	1047	3	@ Port Talbot Town	1192	0
7	2010-10-09	19.03%	@ Bala Town	1031	1	Llanelli	1210	0
8	2011-03-25	19.58%	@ Newtown	981	1	Airbus UK	1153	0
9	2011-01-05	19.95%	@ Llanelli	1193	2	Bangor City	1361	0
10	2011-03-05	20.60%	Neath	1237	2	@ Bangor City	1355	1
11	2011-01-01	20.61%	Haverfordwest County	973	2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1091	0
12	2011-04-30	22.00%	@ Bangor City	1306	1	The New Saints	1453	0
13	2011-02-05	22.27%	Bala Town	991	2	@ Airbus UK	1092	1
14	2011-04-30	24.05%	Newtown	1033	3	@ Airbus UK	1116	0
15	2010-10-01	25.23%	Neath	1172	4	@ Llanelli	1244	1
16	2010-12-29	25.43%	@ Haverfordwest County	960	3	Carmarthen Town	1074	2
17	2010-09-25	25.56%	@ Haverfordwest County	1047	4	Airbus UK	1160	0
18	2010-10-15	26.15%	Aberystwyth Town	1129	3	@ Llanelli	1193	2
19	2010-09-04	26.54%	@ Llanelli	1196	2	The New Saints	1300	1
20	2011-02-18	26.71%	Bala Town	1006	2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1065	1
21	2011-03-04	27.22%	Newtown	965	2	@ Bala Town	1020	0
22	2011-04-01	27.78%	@ Bala Town	964	2	Aberystwyth Town	1058	1
23	2011-04-10	28.24%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1045	2	Airbus UK	1134	0
24	2011-02-20	28.90%	Llanelli	1246	4	@ Neath	1287	0
25	2010-08-20	29.23%	Port Talbot Town	1216	3	@ Llanelli	1254	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2010-09-25	52.75	@ Haverfordwest County	4	1047	25.56%	Airbus UK	0	1160	49.58%	24.87%
2	2011-02-20	49.48	Llanelli	4	1246	28.90%	@ Neath	0	1287	45.95%	25.15%
3	2011-04-24	47.87	@ Bala Town	4	971	30.61%	Carmarthen Town	0	1042	44.14%	25.25%
4	2010-09-05	47.62	@ Neath	5	1113	41.22%	Newtown	0	1107	33.42%	25.36%
5	2010-10-17	46.41	Prestatyn Town	3	1047	18.29%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1192	58.05%	23.67%
6	2010-11-20	42.28	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1116	36.93%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1140	37.66%	25.41%
7	2011-04-30	41.56	Newtown	3	1033	24.05%	@ Airbus UK	0	1116	51.26%	24.69%
8	2010-08-20	37.63	Port Talbot Town	3	1216	29.23%	@ Llanelli	0	1254	45.60%	25.17%
9	2011-04-01	35.22	@ Llanelli	4	1286	45.13%	Neath	0	1251	29.67%	25.20%
10	2010-10-01	34.26	Neath	4	1172	25.23%	@ Llanelli	1	1244	49.93%	24.83%
11	2010-08-27	32.89	Neath	3	1080	36.12%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1067	38.48%	25.41%
12	2010-09-28	31.19	Llanelli	4	1213	49.60%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1100	25.53%	24.86%
13	2011-01-05	30.95	@ Llanelli	2	1193	19.95%	Bangor City	0	1361	56.01%	24.03%
14	2010-09-11	30.83	@ The New Saints	7	1286	63.55%	Carmarthen Town	0	1085	14.08%	22.37%
15	2011-01-01	30.56	Haverfordwest County	2	973	20.61%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1091	55.23%	24.16%
16	2010-12-11	30.45	@ Airbus UK	4	1067	50.40%	Haverfordwest County	0	991	24.82%	24.78%
17	2010-12-04	28.71	@ Bangor City	8	1351	60.97%	Port Talbot Town	1	1178	15.99%	23.04%
18	2011-03-20	28.39	@ Airbus UK	5	1125	58.36%	Haverfordwest County	0	978	18.04%	23.60%
19	2010-08-21	28.16	Airbus UK	4	1112	35.35%	@ Carmarthen Town	1	1104	39.25%	25.40%
20	2011-03-04	26.93	Newtown	2	965	27.22%	@ Bala Town	0	1020	47.76%	25.02%
21	2010-09-25	26.72	@ The New Saints	6	1316	55.00%	Port Talbot Town	1	1200	20.80%	24.20%
22	2010-09-10	26.51	@ Bangor City	5	1249	48.92%	Airbus UK	1	1185	26.16%	24.93%
23	2011-01-02	26.48	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1153	14.80%	Bangor City	2	1387	62.56%	22.64%
24	2011-04-10	26.41	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1045	28.24%	Airbus UK	0	1134	46.65%	25.10%
25	2011-01-05	25.78	@ Bala Town	4	1006	39.70%	Newtown	1	1011	34.91%	25.39%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-02-19	63.2	@ Newtown	4	965	38.98%	Haverfordwest County	4	975	35.62%	25.40%
2	2011-04-22	60.3	Neath	3	1225	12.32%	@ The New Saints	2	1456	66.08%	21.61%
3	2011-02-12	59.6	@ Newtown	2	961	5.18%	The New Saints	2	1423	78.93%	15.89%
4	2011-01-18	59.5	@ The New Saints	2	1413	49.13%	Bangor City	2	1347	25.96%	24.91%
5	2011-04-30	58.9	Port Talbot Town	3	1124	12.69%	@ Llanelli	2	1348	65.53%	21.78%
6	2011-03-25	58.8	@ Neath	2	1249	18.19%	The New Saints	2	1438	58.16%	23.64%
7	2011-03-12	57.8	@ Llanelli	2	1295	34.07%	Bangor City	2	1340	40.56%	25.38%
8	2011-03-25	57.7	@ Bangor City	2	1333	61.53%	Port Talbot Town	2	1153	15.57%	22.90%
9	2010-09-17	57.3	@ Airbus UK	2	1159	20.85%	The New Saints	2	1317	54.95%	24.20%
10	2011-02-01	57.0	@ Llanelli	2	1246	48.21%	Prestatyn Town	2	1187	26.80%	24.99%
11	2010-10-02	56.9	@ Bangor City	4	1292	33.28%	The New Saints	3	1342	41.37%	25.36%
12	2010-08-20	56.8	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1164	49.49%	Newtown	2	1095	25.64%	24.87%
13	2010-10-17	56.8	@ Airbus UK	2	1107	26.34%	Neath	2	1213	48.72%	24.94%
14	2010-10-22	56.7	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1142	46.96%	Carmarthen Town	2	1094	27.96%	25.08%
15	2010-11-26	56.7	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1097	29.32%	Port Talbot Town	2	1179	45.50%	25.18%
16	2011-03-18	56.7	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1047	49.31%	Newtown	2	980	25.80%	24.89%
17	2010-09-17	56.6	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1054	41.40%	Haverfordwest County	2	1047	33.25%	25.35%
18	2011-01-02	55.6	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1153	14.80%	Bangor City	2	1387	62.56%	22.64%
19	2010-12-29	54.7	@ Haverfordwest County	3	960	25.43%	Carmarthen Town	2	1074	49.71%	24.85%
20	2010-10-15	54.6	Aberystwyth Town	3	1129	26.15%	@ Llanelli	2	1193	48.93%	24.93%
21	2011-02-19	53.6	@ The New Saints	1	1419	69.60%	Port Talbot Town	1	1144	10.05%	20.35%
22	2010-12-14	53.0	@ Airbus UK	1	1097	11.47%	Bangor City	1	1387	67.36%	21.18%
23	2011-04-01	52.8	Prestatyn Town	2	1159	16.17%	@ Bangor City	1	1330	60.74%	23.09%
24	2010-08-27	52.6	Carmarthen Town	2	1076	15.71%	@ Port Talbot Town	1	1253	61.34%	22.95%
25	2010-11-24	52.6	@ Neath	1	1226	21.77%	The New Saints	1	1376	53.86%	24.36%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-01-01	24.5	@ The New Saints	4	1390	76.11%	Newtown	0	1019	6.48%	17.41%
2	2011-01-08	26.0	@ Bangor City	6	1330	73.23%	Haverfordwest County	0	1004	7.96%	18.81%
3	2010-10-29	26.7	@ Bangor City	3	1324	71.25%	Bala Town	0	1026	9.07%	19.68%
4	2010-11-20	27.6	@ Bangor City	5	1332	66.67%	Carmarthen Town	0	1095	11.92%	21.41%
5	2011-03-11	28.2	@ The New Saints	4	1415	66.32%	Prestatyn Town	0	1181	12.15%	21.53%
6	2010-12-04	28.7	@ The New Saints	2	1373	71.47%	Airbus UK	0	1073	8.94%	19.59%
7	2011-01-08	28.9	The New Saints	2	1398	70.95%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1061	9.24%	19.81%
8	2010-11-12	29.0	@ Neath	4	1193	60.58%	Haverfordwest County	0	1024	16.29%	23.13%
9	2010-10-16	29.1	@ The New Saints	6	1356	72.33%	Haverfordwest County	1	1043	8.45%	19.21%
10	2010-10-10	29.3	@ The New Saints	5	1331	61.30%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1154	15.74%	22.96%
11	2010-09-11	29.6	@ The New Saints	7	1286	63.55%	Carmarthen Town	0	1085	14.08%	22.37%
12	2011-03-20	29.8	@ Airbus UK	5	1125	58.36%	Haverfordwest County	0	978	18.04%	23.60%
13	2011-01-07	30.0	Neath	3	1255	60.09%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1047	16.67%	23.24%
14	2011-01-15	30.2	The New Saints	4	1408	76.64%	@ Haverfordwest County	1	985	6.22%	17.14%
15	2011-01-15	30.5	Bangor City	1	1345	73.78%	@ Newtown	0	967	7.66%	18.56%
16	2011-04-22	30.6	@ Llanelli	3	1346	59.60%	Prestatyn Town	0	1186	17.06%	23.35%
17	2011-01-08	30.7	@ Port Talbot Town	3	1124	57.48%	Newtown	0	985	18.75%	23.77%
18	2010-12-11	31.7	The New Saints	2	1379	62.22%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1149	15.05%	22.73%
19	2011-04-23	31.7	Airbus UK	2	1105	60.32%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	895	16.49%	23.19%
20	2010-10-01	31.8	@ Port Talbot Town	3	1173	53.71%	Haverfordwest County	0	1069	21.90%	24.38%
21	2011-01-11	31.8	@ Prestatyn Town	2	1189	60.20%	Bala Town	0	1023	16.59%	23.22%
22	2011-04-15	31.9	The New Saints	2	1447	64.12%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1195	13.68%	22.21%
23	2010-12-11	32.0	@ Airbus UK	4	1067	50.40%	Haverfordwest County	0	991	24.82%	24.78%
24	2010-12-12	32.0	Neath	2	1229	59.48%	@ Bala Town	0	1027	17.14%	23.37%
25	2010-12-04	32.3	@ Bangor City	8	1351	60.97%	Port Talbot Town	1	1178	15.99%	23.04%