2011-12 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

74 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Carmarthen Town

9.02 points above expected

32 points · 22.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Prestatyn Town

7.48 points below expected

28 points · 35.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bangor City	22	16	2	4	50	53	28	+25	41.15	+8.85
2	The New Saints	22	15	4	3	49	52	24	+28	48.23	+0.77
3	Llanelli	22	14	3	5	45	47	23	+24	43.59	+1.41
4	Neath	22	12	7	3	43	43	20	+23	39.97	+3.03
5	Bala Town	22	11	6	5	39	35	25	+10	30.25	+8.75
6	Prestatyn Town	22	8	4	10	28	33	37	-4	31.28	-3.28
7	Airbus UK	22	6	7	9	25	32	37	-5	25.56	-0.56
8	Port Talbot Town	22	6	4	12	22	26	37	-11	27.45	-5.45
9	Afan Lido	22	5	7	10	22	24	35	-11	21.70	+0.30
10	Aberystwyth Town	22	4	6	12	18	27	38	-11	22.28	-4.28
11	Newtown	22	5	1	16	16	26	62	-36	17.98	-1.98
12	Carmarthen Town	22	4	1	17	13	19	51	-32	16.66	-3.66

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	23	5	4	74	75	31	+44	68.55	+5.45
2	Bangor City	32	22	3	7	69	72	45	+27	65.55	+3.45
3	Neath	32	18	8	6	62	60	36	+24	60.69	+1.31
4	Llanelli	32	18	5	9	59	63	37	+26	58.52	+0.48
5	Bala Town	32	14	7	11	49	48	41	+7	49.05	-0.05
6	Prestatyn Town	32	8	4	20	28	41	63	-22	35.48	-7.48

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Airbus UK	32	10	9	13	39	48	50	-2	42.21	-3.21
2	Aberystwyth Town	32	8	10	14	34	45	50	-5	37.38	-3.38
3	Port Talbot Town	32	8	9	15	33	39	51	-12	36.92	-3.92
4	Afan Lido	32	7	11	14	32	40	55	-15	31.28	+0.72
5	Carmarthen Town	32	10	2	20	32	33	67	-34	22.98	+9.02
6	Newtown	32	7	5	20	26	44	82	-38	24.92	+1.08

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Carmarthen Town	32	22.98	+9.02
2	The New Saints	74	68.55	+5.45
3	Bangor City	69	65.55	+3.45
4	Neath	62	60.69	+1.31
5	Newtown	26	24.92	+1.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Prestatyn Town	28	35.48	-7.48
2	Port Talbot Town	33	36.92	-3.92
3	Aberystwyth Town	34	37.38	-3.38
4	Airbus UK	39	42.21	-3.21
5	Bala Town	49	49.05	-0.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	5	Aug 20 – Sep 10	1 in 114
2	Neath	6	Jan 12 – Mar 9	1 in 90
3	Carmarthen Town	3	Apr 7 – Apr 21	1 in 87
4	Bangor City	7	Dec 9 – Feb 19	1 in 49
5	The New Saints	8	Aug 26 – Oct 8	1 in 38

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	2	Nov 13 – Nov 18	1 in 84
2	Newtown	7	Aug 19 – Sep 23	1 in 82
3	Afan Lido	4	Apr 6 – Apr 21	1 in 69
4	Prestatyn Town	10	Feb 4 – Apr 21	1 in 66
5	Llanelli	4	Dec 27 – Feb 18	1 in 62

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Neath	15	Oct 30 – Mar 9	1 in 220
2	Port Talbot Town	5	Mar 18 – Apr 14	1 in 21
3	Afan Lido	6	Feb 10 – Mar 23	1 in 18
4	Bala Town	7	Oct 8 – Nov 11	1 in 16
5	Carmarthen Town	3	Jan 2 – Feb 18	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Neath	6	Oct 14 – Nov 11	1 in 188
2	Airbus UK	9	Aug 13 – Oct 1	1 in 33
3	The New Saints	3	Nov 9 – Nov 18	1 in 25
4	Port Talbot Town	7	Nov 5 – Dec 26	1 in 23
5	Newtown	10	Dec 10 – Mar 23	1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1479	74	+50	13	10.1	+2.9
Bangor City	1334	69	+13	10	8.2	+1.8
Neath	1298	62	-79	4	9.0	-5.0
Llanelli	1326	59	+65	11	6.4	+4.6
Bala Town	1178	49	-15	4	5.3	-1.3
Airbus UK	1067	39	-22	7	9.0	-2.0
Aberystwyth Town	1093	34	+65	12	7.9	+4.1
Port Talbot Town	1011	33	-3	6	6.8	-0.8
Carmarthen Town	946	32	+8	9	5.2	+3.8
Afan Lido	946	32	-105	1	7.6	-6.6
Prestatyn Town	1016	28	-34	0	3.0	-3.0
Newtown	981	26	+57	7	5.3	+1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AL	AU	BT	BC	CT	LLA	NEA	NEW	PTT	PT	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	1-3-0 5.87	1-1-2 5.19	0-0-2 2.36	0-1-1 1.47	2-1-1 7.41	0-0-2 0.99	0-1-1 1.48	3-1-0 6.37	1-1-2 5.26	0-0-2 1.91	0-1-1 0.85
Afan Lido	0-3-1 5.27	—	0-2-2 4.40	0-0-2 1.73	0-1-1 1.11	3-0-1 6.36	0-1-1 0.93	1-1-0 1.13	1-1-2 6.63	1-2-1 5.80	0-0-2 1.61	1-0-1 0.68
Airbus UK	2-1-1 5.96	2-2-0 6.75	—	0-0-2 2.31	0-0-2 1.47	1-0-3 7.80	0-2-0 1.34	0-1-1 1.58	4-0-0 7.17	0-2-2 5.77	1-1-0 1.99	0-0-2 0.96
Bala Town	2-0-0 3.22	2-0-0 3.86	2-0-0 3.27	—	0-0-4 3.50	2-0-0 3.67	1-0-3 3.94	0-2-2 3.64	1-1-0 3.37	1-1-0 3.17	3-1-0 6.54	0-2-2 2.27
Bangor City	1-1-0 4.12	1-1-0 4.51	2-0-0 4.13	4-0-0 7.67	—	2-0-0 4.55	2-1-1 5.67	2-0-2 5.69	1-0-1 4.58	2-0-0 4.21	4-0-0 8.41	1-0-3 4.09
Carmarthen Town	1-1-2 3.76	1-0-3 4.79	3-0-1 3.38	0-0-2 1.91	0-0-2 1.08	—	0-0-2 1.04	0-1-1 1.12	1-0-3 5.28	3-0-1 3.70	1-0-1 1.61	0-0-2 0.65
Llanelli	2-0-0 4.65	1-1-0 4.71	0-2-0 4.27	3-0-1 7.23	1-1-2 5.48	2-0-0 4.60	—	1-0-3 5.45	2-0-0 4.56	2-0-0 4.37	4-0-0 8.20	0-1-3 4.07
Neath	1-1-0 4.12	0-1-1 4.49	1-1-0 4.01	2-2-0 7.52	2-0-2 5.45	1-1-0 4.50	3-0-1 5.70	—	2-0-0 4.33	2-0-0 4.15	3-1-0 8.60	1-1-2 4.08
Newtown	0-1-3 4.78	2-1-1 4.52	0-0-4 3.99	0-1-1 2.21	1-0-1 1.04	3-0-1 5.86	0-0-2 1.06	0-0-2 1.29	—	1-2-1 4.26	0-0-2 1.81	0-0-2 0.71
Port Talbot Town	2-1-1 5.88	1-2-1 5.34	2-2-0 5.37	0-1-1 2.41	0-0-2 1.39	1-0-3 7.47	0-0-2 1.24	0-0-2 1.46	1-2-1 6.89	—	0-1-1 2.29	1-0-1 1.25
Prestatyn Town	2-0-0 3.67	2-0-0 3.98	0-1-1 3.59	0-1-3 4.61	0-0-4 2.80	1-0-1 3.98	0-0-4 3.01	0-1-3 2.62	2-0-0 3.77	1-1-0 3.29	—	0-0-4 2.31
The New Saints	1-1-0 4.81	1-0-1 5.00	2-0-0 4.68	2-2-0 8.97	3-0-1 7.07	2-0-0 5.04	3-1-0 7.10	2-1-1 7.08	2-0-0 4.97	1-0-1 4.37	4-0-0 8.95	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.90	+11.9
Allowed	0.68	-9.6
Differential	0.91	+6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	5.21%	2.08%	2.60%	1.04%	20.31%
1	6.25%	10.42%	9.64%	4.69%	1.04%	1.04%	33.07%
2	5.21%	9.64%	6.77%	3.65%	1.56%	0.52%	27.34%
3	2.08%	4.69%	3.65%	—	0.26%	0.26%	10.94%
4	2.60%	1.04%	1.56%	0.26%	—	—	5.47%
5+	1.04%	1.04%	0.52%	0.26%	—	—	2.86%
Total	20.31%	33.07%	27.34%	10.94%	5.47%	2.86%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.58	1.58	+0.00
SD	1.30	1.30	2.00
CV	0.82	0.82	—
Max	9	9	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	—	25.00%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	40.62%
2	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	37.50%	28.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.56	-0.16
SD	1.19	1.11	1.83
CV	0.84	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
1	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	50.00%
2	—	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.72	-0.47
SD	1.27	1.40	1.80
CV	1.02	0.81	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
1	—	15.62%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
2	—	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
3	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	46.88%	34.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.56	-0.06
SD	1.11	0.88	1.50
CV	0.74	0.56	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	6.25%	—	40.62%
3	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	28.12%	21.88%	6.25%	9.38%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.28	+0.22
SD	1.02	1.28	1.74
CV	0.68	1.00	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	12.50%
1	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	21.88%
2	3.12%	21.88%	3.12%	—	—	—	28.12%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
5+	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	34.38%	21.88%	15.62%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	1.41	+0.84
SD	1.50	1.21	2.14
CV	0.67	0.86	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
1	12.50%	—	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	31.25%
2	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
3	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	25.00%	28.12%	9.38%	12.50%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	2.09	-1.06
SD	1.00	1.61	1.93
CV	0.97	0.77	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	21.88%
2	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	34.38%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	28.12%	37.50%	28.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.97	1.16	+0.81
SD	1.80	0.99	1.93
CV	0.92	0.85	—
Max	9	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
1	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	31.25%
2	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	34.38%	21.88%	6.25%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.88	1.12	+0.75
SD	1.29	1.16	1.90
CV	0.69	1.03	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	6.25%	—	9.38%	6.25%	21.88%
1	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	12.50%	—	3.12%	34.38%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	6.25%	21.88%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	2.56	-1.19
SD	1.24	1.76	2.40
CV	0.90	0.69	—
Max	6	9	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	—	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	15.62%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.38%	37.50%	40.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.59	-0.38
SD	0.91	0.91	1.36
CV	0.74	0.57	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	28.12%
1	6.25%	6.25%	21.88%	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
2	—	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	—	3.12%	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	9.38%	31.25%	31.25%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.97	-0.69
SD	1.28	1.31	1.94
CV	1.00	0.66	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	34.38%
2	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
4	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	40.62%	31.25%	21.88%	3.12%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.34	0.97	+1.38
SD	1.23	1.03	1.70
CV	0.53	1.06	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	1	0	-2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1479	74	48.23	+25.77	63.0%	32	38	45	48	52	58	62
Bangor City	1334	69	41.15	+27.85	94.0%	26	31	37	41	45	51	54
Llanelli	1326	59	43.59	+15.41	65.0%	30	32	40	43	48	52	62
Neath	1298	62	39.97	+22.03	71.0%	25	32	35	39	44	49	51
Bala Town	1178	49	30.25	+18.75	94.0%	18	21	26	30	34	40	44
Aberystwyth Town	1093	34	22.28	+11.72	17.0%	11	14	19	21	26	32	35
Airbus UK	1067	39	25.56	+13.44	50.0%	6	15	21	25	30	36	39
Prestatyn Town	1016	28	31.28	-3.28	26.0%	16	21	27	31	35	41	44
Port Talbot Town	1011	33	27.45	+5.55	21.0%	16	18	23	27	31	36	41
Newtown	981	26	17.98	+8.02	21.0%	4	11	14	18	21	26	30
Afan Lido	946	32	21.70	+10.30	49.0%	7	12	17	23	25	32	39
Carmarthen Town	946	32	16.66	+15.34	29.0%	6	8	13	16	20	25	28

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+11.98%

Strong Edge

45.83%20.31%33.85%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 41.82 Elo pts.

183 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.28 goals

Neutral

-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.5

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

58%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.16/gm

Tight Race

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.53 * Some Luck: 4.53 to 6.79 * Lucky: 6.79 to 9.06 * Wild Swing: 9.06 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.55 * Off: 1.55 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.77 points

Some Luck

05.6614

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.303

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

94.00%

Bangor City

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

17.00%

Aberystwyth Town

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 160.90

2.23

Strong Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

84%

Wide Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

60%

Very Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Rare

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.54

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.42

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.73

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.68

Strong Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Chalky

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.69

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.26

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.094

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	58.00%	18.00%	16.00%	6.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	11.00%	26.00%	20.00%	26.00%	11.00%	2.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Neath	11.00%	21.00%	20.00%	30.00%	12.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Llanelli	20.00%	33.00%	27.00%	10.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	2.00%	5.00%	10.00%	19.00%	20.00%	20.00%	14.00%	3.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—
Prestatyn Town	—	—	7.00%	9.00%	29.00%	21.00%	17.00%	8.00%	5.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Airbus UK	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	8.00%	17.00%	13.00%	20.00%	14.00%	13.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	14.00%	25.00%	21.00%	15.00%	8.00%
Port Talbot Town	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	17.00%	27.00%	13.00%	11.00%	13.00%	5.00%	—
Afan Lido	—	—	2.00%	—	3.00%	6.00%	7.00%	20.00%	19.00%	12.00%	14.00%	17.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%	12.00%	12.00%	28.00%	41.00%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	11.00%	22.00%	28.00%	29.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	60.95%	25.29%	10.28%	3.32%	0.16%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	28.42%	41.85%	21.00%	8.01%	0.72%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Neath	7.16%	20.31%	38.42%	29.57%	4.52%	0.02%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Llanelli	3.41%	12.08%	27.80%	47.84%	8.81%	0.06%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	0.06%	0.47%	2.50%	11.22%	83.62%	2.13%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	0.04%	2.17%	97.79%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	—	—	—	—	—	—	61.03%	23.44%	11.19%	3.72%	0.57%	0.05%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.44%	33.73%	28.65%	13.80%	3.79%	0.59%
Port Talbot Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.47%	30.40%	32.06%	15.84%	4.54%	0.69%
Afan Lido	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.79%	10.50%	20.75%	41.91%	17.73%	6.32%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.11%	0.67%	2.55%	9.90%	33.04%	53.73%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.16%	1.26%	4.80%	14.83%	40.33%	38.62%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Llanelli	100%	—
Neath	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Prestatyn Town	99.00%	1.00%
Port Talbot Town	91.00%	9.00%
Airbus UK	88.00%	12.00%
Aberystwyth Town	83.00%	17.00%
Afan Lido	73.00%	27.00%
Newtown	37.00%	63.00%
Carmarthen Town	29.00%	71.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Llanelli	100%	—
Neath	100%	—
Prestatyn Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Airbus UK	99.38%	0.62%
Aberystwyth Town	95.62%	4.38%
Port Talbot Town	94.77%	5.23%
Afan Lido	75.95%	24.05%
Newtown	21.05%	78.95%
Carmarthen Town	13.23%	86.77%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2011-08-12	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.7	1343	1058	73.24%	17.72%	9.04%	+1.79	-4.5	1
2011-08-12	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	54.7	1058	1343	9.04%	17.72%	73.24%	-1.79	+4.5	1
2011-08-13	Llanelli	W 3-2	50.6	1251	1267	43.13%	21.51%	35.36%	+0.14	+9.8	3
2011-08-13	@ Bangor City	L 2-3	50.6	1267	1251	35.36%	21.51%	43.13%	-0.14	-9.8	0
2011-08-13	Newtown	L 0-1	40.1	1022	1086	36.39%	21.52%	42.09%	-0.12	-11.2	0
2011-08-13	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	40.1	1086	1022	42.09%	21.52%	36.39%	+0.12	+11.2	3
2011-08-13	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.4	1087	1131	39.35%	21.54%	39.11%	-0.01	-0.0	1
2011-08-13	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.4	1131	1087	39.11%	21.54%	39.35%	+0.01	+0.0	1
2011-08-13	Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	36.6	999	1152	25.22%	21.07%	53.71%	-0.61	-8.2	0
2011-08-13	@ Afan Lido	W 1-0	36.6	1152	999	53.71%	21.07%	25.22%	+0.61	+8.2	3
2011-08-14	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	41.8	1193	1087	58.37%	20.66%	20.97%	+0.81	+10.2	3
2011-08-14	@ Neath	L 2-4	41.8	1087	1193	20.97%	20.66%	58.37%	-0.81	-10.2	0
2011-08-19	Afan Lido	W 4-1	30.8	1257	990	72.03%	18.09%	9.88%	+1.69	+7.8	3
2011-08-19	@ Llanelli	L 1-4	30.8	990	1257	9.88%	18.09%	72.03%	-1.69	-7.8	0
2011-08-19	Airbus UK	D 2-2	59.2	1160	1087	54.55%	21.01%	24.45%	+0.62	-1.5	4
2011-08-19	@ Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	59.2	1087	1160	24.45%	21.01%	54.55%	-0.62	+1.5	2
2011-08-19	Newtown	W 4-1	39.7	1076	1097	42.51%	21.52%	35.97%	+0.12	+25.5	3
2011-08-19	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-4	39.7	1097	1076	35.97%	21.52%	42.51%	-0.12	-25.5	3
2011-08-19	The New Saints	W 2-1	52.2	1131	1339	19.72%	20.49%	59.79%	-0.91	+16.1	4
2011-08-19	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	52.2	1339	1131	59.79%	20.49%	19.72%	+0.91	-16.1	1
2011-08-20	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	33.7	1062	1011	52.07%	21.18%	26.75%	+0.51	+16.3	4
2011-08-20	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	33.7	1011	1062	26.75%	21.18%	52.07%	-0.51	-16.3	0
2011-08-21	Bangor City	W 2-0	38.5	1204	1260	37.40%	21.53%	41.07%	-0.08	+23.2	6
2011-08-21	@ Neath	L 0-2	38.5	1260	1204	41.07%	21.53%	37.40%	+0.08	-23.2	3
2011-08-26	Neath	W 1-0	47.7	982	1227	16.69%	20.01%	63.30%	-1.11	+18.0	3
2011-08-26	@ Afan Lido	L 0-1	47.7	1227	982	63.30%	20.01%	16.69%	+1.11	-18.0	6
2011-08-26	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	41.8	994	1147	25.32%	21.08%	53.60%	-0.60	+29.1	3
2011-08-26	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	41.8	1147	994	53.60%	21.08%	25.32%	+0.60	-29.1	4
2011-08-26	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	38.9	1323	1158	64.01%	19.89%	16.10%	+1.13	+5.2	4
2011-08-26	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	38.9	1158	1323	16.10%	19.89%	64.01%	-1.13	-5.2	4
2011-08-27	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.9	1237	1102	61.29%	20.30%	18.41%	+0.97	-2.9	4
2011-08-27	@ Bangor City	D 1-1	53.9	1102	1237	18.41%	20.30%	61.29%	-0.97	+2.9	4
2011-08-27	Bala Town	L 0-2	39.1	1072	1079	44.39%	21.49%	34.13%	+0.19	-24.7	3
2011-08-27	@ Newtown	W 2-0	39.1	1079	1072	34.13%	21.49%	44.39%	-0.19	+24.7	7
2011-08-28	Llanelli	D 1-1	53.7	1089	1265	22.78%	20.85%	56.36%	-0.73	+2.2	3
2011-08-28	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.7	1265	1089	56.36%	20.85%	22.78%	+0.73	-2.2	4
2011-09-03	Afan Lido	W 4-1	31.5	1234	1000	69.70%	18.72%	11.58%	+1.51	+9.2	7
2011-09-03	@ Bangor City	L 1-4	31.5	1000	1234	11.58%	18.72%	69.70%	-1.51	-9.2	3
2011-09-03	Bala Town	L 0-4	36.6	1105	1104	45.55%	21.46%	32.99%	+0.24	-47.8	4
2011-09-03	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	36.6	1104	1105	32.99%	21.46%	45.55%	-0.24	+47.8	10
2011-09-03	Carmarthen Town	W 6-1	31.9	1153	1024	60.73%	20.38%	18.89%	+0.94	+23.3	7
2011-09-03	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-6	31.9	1024	1153	18.89%	20.38%	60.73%	-0.94	-23.3	3
2011-09-03	Newtown	W 3-1	38.6	1118	1047	54.34%	21.02%	24.64%	+0.62	+13.2	7
2011-09-03	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-3	38.6	1047	1118	24.64%	21.02%	54.34%	-0.62	-13.2	3
2011-09-03	The New Saints	L 0-1	40.9	1263	1328	36.25%	21.52%	42.23%	-0.13	-11.1	4
2011-09-03	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	40.9	1328	1263	42.23%	21.52%	36.25%	+0.13	+11.1	7
2011-09-04	Airbus UK	W 3-0	29.3	1209	1091	59.50%	20.53%	19.97%	+0.87	+18.4	9
2011-09-04	@ Neath	L 0-3	29.3	1091	1209	19.97%	20.53%	59.50%	-0.87	-18.4	3
2011-09-07	Bangor City	L 2-4	42.7	1073	1243	23.34%	20.91%	55.75%	-0.70	-11.2	3
2011-09-07	@ Airbus UK	W 4-2	42.7	1243	1073	55.75%	20.91%	23.34%	+0.70	+11.2	10
2011-09-07	Llanelli	L 0-3	28.0	1000	1252	16.14%	19.90%	63.96%	-1.15	-15.1	3
2011-09-07	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	28.0	1252	1000	63.96%	19.90%	16.14%	+1.15	+15.1	7
2011-09-07	Neath	W 3-0	30.1	1339	1227	58.90%	20.60%	20.50%	+0.84	+18.8	10
2011-09-07	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	30.1	1227	1339	20.50%	20.60%	58.90%	-0.84	-18.8	9
2011-09-07	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	35.0	1151	1131	48.13%	21.38%	30.50%	+0.34	+18.2	13
2011-09-07	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	35.0	1131	1151	30.50%	21.38%	48.13%	-0.34	-18.2	7
2011-09-07	Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	42.1	1034	1177	26.37%	21.15%	52.47%	-0.55	-8.1	3
2011-09-07	@ Newtown	W 2-1	42.1	1177	1034	52.47%	21.15%	26.37%	+0.55	+8.1	10
2011-09-10	Bala Town	L 0-1	43.5	1185	1170	47.39%	21.40%	31.21%	+0.31	-13.8	10
2011-09-10	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	43.5	1170	1185	31.21%	21.40%	47.39%	-0.31	+13.8	16
2011-09-10	Newtown	W 9-2	29.3	1267	1026	70.24%	18.59%	11.18%	+1.55	+15.8	10
2011-09-10	@ Llanelli	L 2-9	29.3	1026	1267	11.18%	18.59%	70.24%	-1.55	-15.8	3
2011-09-10	Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	37.1	1057	1113	37.56%	21.54%	40.91%	-0.08	-21.6	4
2011-09-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	37.1	1113	1057	40.91%	21.54%	37.56%	+0.08	+21.6	10
2011-09-10	The New Saints	L 0-3	33.9	1255	1358	31.18%	21.40%	47.42%	-0.33	-27.0	10
2011-09-10	@ Bangor City	W 3-0	33.9	1358	1255	47.42%	21.40%	31.18%	+0.33	+27.0	13
2011-09-11	Airbus UK	D 0-0	49.4	991	1062	35.52%	21.51%	42.97%	-0.16	+0.5	4
2011-09-11	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	49.4	1062	991	42.97%	21.51%	35.52%	+0.16	-0.5	4
2011-09-11	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	32.1	1208	985	68.90%	18.92%	12.19%	+1.45	+4.2	12
2011-09-11	@ Neath	L 0-1	32.1	985	1208	12.19%	18.92%	68.90%	-1.45	-4.2	3
2011-09-16	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.5	1061	1035	48.79%	21.35%	29.86%	+0.37	-1.2	5
2011-09-16	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.5	1035	1061	29.86%	21.35%	48.79%	-0.37	+1.2	5
2011-09-17	Afan Lido	W 3-0	23.5	1385	992	79.25%	15.40%	5.35%	+2.38	+4.9	16
2011-09-17	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	23.5	992	1385	5.35%	15.40%	79.25%	-2.38	-4.8	4
2011-09-17	Bangor City	L 1-2	38.7	981	1228	16.49%	19.97%	63.53%	-1.12	-5.3	3
2011-09-17	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	38.7	1228	981	63.53%	19.97%	16.49%	+1.12	+5.3	13
2011-09-17	Neath	L 0-4	28.7	1010	1212	20.22%	20.56%	59.22%	-0.88	-24.3	3
2011-09-17	@ Newtown	W 4-0	28.7	1212	1010	59.22%	20.56%	20.22%	+0.88	+24.3	15
2011-09-18	Llanelli	L 2-4	45.6	1183	1283	31.67%	21.42%	46.91%	-0.31	-14.6	16
2011-09-18	@ Bala Town	W 4-2	45.6	1283	1183	46.91%	21.42%	31.67%	+0.31	+14.6	13
2011-09-18	Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	49.5	1134	1171	40.27%	21.54%	38.19%	+0.03	-0.1	11
2011-09-18	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	49.5	1171	1134	38.19%	21.54%	40.27%	-0.03	+0.1	11
2011-09-23	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	38.6	987	976	46.90%	21.42%	31.68%	+0.29	+10.0	7
2011-09-23	@ Afan Lido	L 0-1	38.6	976	987	31.68%	21.42%	46.90%	-0.29	-10.0	3
2011-09-23	Newtown	W 4-0	25.3	1233	986	70.69%	18.47%	10.85%	+1.58	+13.3	16
2011-09-23	@ Bangor City	L 0-4	25.3	986	1233	10.85%	18.47%	70.69%	-1.58	-13.3	3
2011-09-23	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	30.4	1297	1134	63.91%	19.91%	16.18%	+1.12	+10.4	16
2011-09-23	@ Llanelli	L 0-2	30.4	1134	1297	16.18%	19.91%	63.91%	-1.12	-10.4	11
2011-09-24	The New Saints	L 1-2	37.0	1060	1390	11.14%	18.57%	70.29%	-1.57	-3.6	5
2011-09-24	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	37.0	1390	1060	70.29%	18.57%	11.14%	+1.57	+3.6	19
2011-09-25	Bala Town	W 4-0	30.4	1237	1169	54.01%	21.05%	24.94%	+0.60	+29.2	18
2011-09-25	@ Neath	L 0-4	30.4	1169	1237	24.94%	21.05%	54.01%	-0.60	-29.2	16
2011-09-25	Prestatyn Town	L 1-3	39.5	1037	1171	27.34%	21.22%	51.44%	-0.51	-14.4	5
2011-09-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	39.5	1171	1037	51.44%	21.22%	27.34%	+0.51	+14.4	14
2011-09-27	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.4	997	1022	41.90%	21.53%	36.58%	+0.09	-0.4	8
2011-09-27	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	49.4	1022	997	36.58%	21.53%	41.90%	-0.09	+0.4	6
2011-09-30	Neath	L 1-2	42.2	1124	1266	26.42%	21.16%	52.42%	-0.55	-8.1	11
2011-09-30	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	42.2	1266	1124	52.42%	21.16%	26.42%	+0.55	+8.1	21
2011-10-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	39.8	1393	1022	78.14%	15.89%	5.97%	+2.26	+1.8	22
2011-10-01	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	39.8	1022	1393	5.97%	15.89%	78.14%	-2.26	-1.8	6
2011-10-01	Afan Lido	W 2-1	45.2	972	997	42.02%	21.53%	36.46%	+0.10	+10.5	6
2011-10-01	@ Newtown	L 1-2	45.2	997	972	36.46%	21.53%	42.02%	-0.10	-10.5	8
2011-10-01	Airbus UK	W 3-1	45.1	966	1056	32.80%	21.45%	45.75%	-0.27	+21.9	6
2011-10-01	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	45.1	1056	966	45.75%	21.45%	32.80%	+0.27	-21.9	5
2011-10-01	Llanelli	L 0-2	34.8	1185	1308	28.79%	21.30%	49.91%	-0.44	-17.4	14
2011-10-01	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	34.8	1308	1185	49.91%	21.30%	28.79%	+0.44	+17.4	19
2011-10-02	Bangor City	L 1-2	43.6	1140	1246	30.70%	21.38%	47.92%	-0.36	-9.2	16
2011-10-02	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	43.6	1246	1140	47.92%	21.38%	30.70%	+0.36	+9.2	19
2011-10-08	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	27.2	1325	1021	74.42%	17.33%	8.25%	+1.89	+5.3	22
2011-10-08	@ Llanelli	L 0-2	27.2	1021	1325	8.25%	17.33%	74.42%	-1.89	-5.3	6
2011-10-08	Bala Town	L 0-1	36.9	986	1130	26.19%	21.14%	52.67%	-0.56	-8.5	8
2011-10-08	@ Afan Lido	W 1-0	36.9	1130	986	52.67%	21.14%	26.19%	+0.56	+8.5	19
2011-10-08	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	22.6	1395	988	79.94%	15.07%	4.99%	+2.46	+5.9	25
2011-10-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	22.6	988	1395	4.99%	15.07%	79.94%	-2.46	-5.9	6
2011-10-08	Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	36.6	1256	1115	61.75%	20.24%	18.01%	+0.99	+10.0	22
2011-10-08	@ Bangor City	L 1-3	36.6	1115	1256	18.01%	20.24%	61.75%	-0.99	-10.0	11
2011-10-09	Newtown	W 3-2	47.4	1034	983	52.04%	21.18%	26.78%	+0.51	+7.8	8
2011-10-09	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	47.4	983	1034	26.78%	21.18%	52.04%	-0.51	-7.8	6
2011-10-09	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	37.7	1274	1168	58.30%	20.66%	21.04%	+0.81	+11.5	24
2011-10-09	@ Neath	L 1-3	37.7	1168	1274	21.04%	20.66%	58.30%	-0.81	-11.5	14
2011-10-14	Neath	D 1-1	54.1	1015	1285	14.79%	19.61%	65.60%	-1.25	+3.5	7
2011-10-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1285	1015	65.60%	19.61%	14.79%	+1.25	-3.5	25
2011-10-14	The New Saints	D 2-2	60.1	1139	1401	15.37%	19.74%	64.88%	-1.20	+2.5	20
2011-10-14	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	60.1	1401	1139	64.88%	19.74%	15.37%	+1.20	-2.5	26
2011-10-15	Afan Lido	W 3-1	35.4	1156	978	65.31%	19.67%	15.02%	+1.21	+8.4	17
2011-10-15	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-3	35.4	978	1156	15.02%	19.67%	65.31%	-1.21	-8.4	8
2011-10-15	Airbus UK	W 2-1	41.7	1106	1042	53.49%	21.09%	25.43%	+0.58	+7.8	14
2011-10-15	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	41.7	1042	1106	25.43%	21.09%	53.49%	-0.58	-7.8	8
2011-10-15	Bangor City	W 2-1	42.6	1330	1266	53.63%	21.08%	25.29%	+0.58	+7.8	25
2011-10-15	@ Llanelli	L 1-2	42.6	1266	1330	25.29%	21.08%	53.63%	-0.58	-7.8	22
2011-10-15	Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	45.9	975	982	44.46%	21.49%	34.05%	+0.19	+15.5	9
2011-10-15	@ Newtown	L 2-4	45.9	982	975	34.05%	21.49%	44.46%	-0.19	-15.5	6
2011-10-21	Llanelli	D 0-0	50.6	969	1338	9.23%	17.81%	72.97%	-1.79	+5.0	9
2011-10-21	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	50.6	1338	969	72.97%	17.81%	9.23%	+1.79	-5.0	26
2011-10-21	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	49.5	1034	1165	27.78%	21.24%	50.97%	-0.49	+13.9	11
2011-10-21	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	49.5	1165	1034	50.97%	21.24%	27.78%	+0.49	-13.9	17
2011-10-22	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	46.7	990	1019	41.44%	21.53%	37.03%	+0.07	-11.7	9
2011-10-22	@ Newtown	W 2-1	46.7	1019	990	37.03%	21.53%	41.44%	-0.07	+11.7	10
2011-10-22	Bala Town	L 0-1	35.8	966	1142	22.88%	20.86%	56.26%	-0.73	-7.6	6
2011-10-22	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	35.8	1142	966	56.26%	20.86%	22.88%	+0.73	+7.6	23
2011-10-22	Neath	W 2-1	45.8	1258	1282	42.03%	21.53%	36.45%	+0.10	+10.5	25
2011-10-22	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	45.8	1282	1258	36.45%	21.53%	42.03%	-0.10	-10.5	25
2011-10-22	Port Talbot Town	W 3-2	41.6	1398	1113	73.22%	17.73%	9.06%	+1.79	+2.8	29
2011-10-22	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	41.6	1113	1398	9.06%	17.73%	73.22%	-1.79	-2.8	14
2011-10-28	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	30.5	1111	959	62.87%	20.08%	17.06%	+1.06	+10.9	17
2011-10-28	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	30.5	959	1111	17.06%	20.08%	62.87%	-1.06	-10.9	6
2011-10-28	Newtown	D 2-2	59.5	1149	979	64.55%	19.80%	15.65%	+1.16	-2.5	24
2011-10-28	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	59.5	979	1149	15.65%	19.80%	64.55%	-1.16	+2.5	10
2011-10-28	The New Saints	L 0-2	30.9	1151	1401	16.24%	19.92%	63.84%	-1.14	-10.4	17
2011-10-28	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	30.9	1401	1151	63.84%	19.92%	16.24%	+1.14	+10.4	32
2011-10-29	Bangor City	L 0-2	30.6	1031	1268	17.20%	20.10%	62.69%	-1.07	-11.0	10
2011-10-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	30.6	1268	1031	62.69%	20.10%	17.20%	+1.07	+11.0	28
2011-10-30	Afan Lido	D 1-1	54.7	1271	974	74.00%	17.47%	8.53%	+1.85	-4.6	26
2011-10-30	@ Neath	D 1-1	54.7	974	1271	8.53%	17.47%	74.00%	-1.85	+4.6	10
2011-10-30	Airbus UK	D 1-1	54.7	1333	1048	73.21%	17.73%	9.06%	+1.79	-4.5	27
2011-10-30	@ Llanelli	D 1-1	54.7	1048	1333	9.06%	17.73%	73.21%	-1.79	+4.5	12
2011-11-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	29.0	1147	1020	60.47%	20.41%	19.12%	+0.92	+17.6	27
2011-11-04	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	29.0	1020	1147	19.12%	20.41%	60.47%	-0.92	-17.6	10
2011-11-05	Bangor City	D 0-0	50.2	979	1279	12.80%	19.10%	68.10%	-1.42	+4.3	11
2011-11-05	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	50.2	1279	979	68.10%	19.10%	12.80%	+1.42	-4.3	29
2011-11-05	Llanelli	W 4-2	45.0	1412	1328	55.76%	20.91%	23.33%	+0.68	+11.2	35
2011-11-05	@ The New Saints	L 2-4	45.0	1328	1412	23.33%	20.91%	55.76%	-0.68	-11.2	27
2011-11-05	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	41.4	981	1121	26.68%	21.17%	52.15%	-0.54	+28.4	13
2011-11-05	@ Newtown	L 0-2	41.4	1121	981	52.15%	21.17%	26.68%	+0.54	-28.4	17
2011-11-05	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	51.4	948	1141	21.15%	20.68%	58.17%	-0.83	+15.7	9
2011-11-05	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	51.4	1141	948	58.17%	20.68%	21.15%	+0.83	-15.7	17
2011-11-06	Neath	D 2-2	59.4	1053	1267	19.18%	20.42%	60.40%	-0.94	+2.1	13
2011-11-06	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	59.4	1267	1053	60.40%	20.42%	19.18%	+0.94	-2.1	27
2011-11-08	Bala Town	D 2-2	59.0	1093	1164	35.40%	21.51%	43.09%	-0.16	+0.4	18
2011-11-08	@ Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.0	1164	1093	43.09%	21.51%	35.40%	+0.16	-0.3	28
2011-11-08	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	26.3	1317	963	77.25%	16.27%	6.49%	+2.16	+4.1	30
2011-11-08	@ Llanelli	L 0-2	26.3	963	1317	6.49%	16.27%	77.25%	-2.16	-4.1	9
2011-11-08	Newtown	W 2-1	40.0	1125	1010	59.25%	20.56%	20.19%	+0.86	+6.4	20
2011-11-08	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	40.0	1010	1125	20.19%	20.56%	59.25%	-0.86	-6.4	13
2011-11-09	Airbus UK	W 2-1	37.3	1275	1055	68.68%	18.97%	12.35%	+1.43	+4.0	32
2011-11-09	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	37.3	1055	1275	12.35%	18.97%	68.68%	-1.43	-4.0	13
2011-11-09	The New Saints	D 1-1	55.3	1265	1423	24.69%	21.03%	54.28%	-0.64	+1.9	28
2011-11-09	@ Neath	D 1-1	55.3	1423	1265	54.28%	21.03%	24.69%	+0.64	-1.9	36
2011-11-11	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	39.7	1093	1002	56.72%	20.82%	22.46%	+0.73	-58.1	18
2011-11-11	@ Port Talbot Town	W 4-0	39.7	1002	1093	22.46%	20.82%	56.72%	-0.73	+58.1	13
2011-11-11	Neath	D 2-2	59.8	959	1267	12.39%	18.98%	68.62%	-1.45	+2.9	10
2011-11-11	@ Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	59.8	1267	959	68.62%	18.98%	12.39%	+1.45	-2.9	29
2011-11-11	Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	53.5	1164	1131	49.69%	21.31%	29.00%	+0.41	-1.3	29
2011-11-11	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.5	1131	1164	29.00%	21.31%	49.69%	-0.41	+1.3	21
2011-11-12	Llanelli	L 0-2	28.6	1003	1321	11.78%	18.79%	69.43%	-1.51	-7.6	13
2011-11-12	@ Newtown	W 2-0	28.6	1321	1003	69.43%	18.79%	11.78%	+1.51	+7.6	33
2011-11-13	Afan Lido	W 3-1	38.7	1051	983	53.98%	21.05%	24.97%	+0.60	+13.3	16
2011-11-13	@ Airbus UK	L 1-3	38.7	983	1051	24.97%	21.05%	53.98%	-0.60	-13.3	11
2011-11-13	Bangor City	L 3-4	62.8	1421	1279	61.92%	20.22%	17.87%	+1.00	-15.4	36
2011-11-13	@ The New Saints	W 4-3	62.8	1279	1421	17.87%	20.22%	61.92%	-1.00	+15.4	35
2011-11-18	Airbus UK	L 1-2	47.7	1060	1064	44.83%	21.48%	33.69%	+0.21	-12.4	13
2011-11-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	47.7	1064	1060	33.69%	21.48%	44.83%	-0.21	+12.4	19
2011-11-18	The New Saints	W 3-1	53.1	970	1405	6.67%	16.39%	76.93%	-2.15	+35.0	14
2011-11-18	@ Afan Lido	L 1-3	53.1	1405	970	76.93%	16.39%	6.67%	+2.15	-35.0	36
2011-11-19	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	23.7	1294	962	76.06%	16.74%	7.21%	+2.04	+8.7	38
2011-11-19	@ Bangor City	L 0-4	23.7	962	1294	7.21%	16.74%	76.06%	-2.04	-8.7	10
2011-11-19	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	40.6	1133	1035	57.33%	20.76%	21.90%	+0.76	+6.9	24
2011-11-19	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	40.6	1035	1133	21.90%	20.76%	57.33%	-0.76	-6.9	18
2011-11-20	Bala Town	W 3-1	36.1	1329	1163	64.21%	19.86%	15.93%	+1.14	+8.9	36
2011-11-20	@ Llanelli	L 1-3	36.1	1163	1329	15.93%	19.86%	64.21%	-1.14	-8.9	29
2011-11-20	Newtown	W 5-0	25.3	1264	996	72.11%	18.07%	9.82%	+1.70	+14.9	32
2011-11-20	@ Neath	L 0-5	25.3	996	1264	9.82%	18.07%	72.11%	-1.70	-14.9	13
2011-11-25	Afan Lido	L 2-5	43.5	954	1005	38.19%	21.54%	40.27%	-0.05	-23.2	10
2011-11-25	@ Carmarthen Town	W 5-2	43.5	1005	954	40.27%	21.54%	38.19%	+0.05	+23.2	17
2011-11-25	Airbus UK	W 3-1	33.1	1370	1076	73.79%	17.54%	8.67%	+1.84	+4.8	39
2011-11-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	33.1	1076	1370	8.67%	17.54%	73.79%	-1.84	-4.8	19
2011-11-26	Bangor City	W 2-1	54.4	981	1303	11.54%	18.71%	69.75%	-1.53	+18.6	16
2011-11-26	@ Newtown	L 1-2	54.4	1303	981	69.75%	18.71%	11.54%	+1.53	-18.6	38
2011-11-26	Llanelli	L 0-1	32.2	1028	1338	12.28%	18.95%	68.78%	-1.46	-4.2	18
2011-11-26	@ Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	32.2	1338	1028	68.78%	18.95%	12.28%	+1.46	+4.2	39
2011-11-27	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	35.7	1139	1048	56.75%	20.82%	22.43%	+0.73	+7.4	27
2011-11-27	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	35.7	1048	1139	22.43%	20.82%	56.75%	-0.73	-7.4	13
2011-11-27	Neath	D 0-0	49.7	1154	1279	28.46%	21.28%	50.26%	-0.45	+1.6	30
2011-11-27	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.7	1279	1154	50.26%	21.28%	28.46%	+0.45	-1.6	33
2011-11-29	Afan Lido	D 1-1	53.4	1040	1028	47.02%	21.42%	31.56%	+0.30	-1.0	14
2011-11-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.4	1028	1040	31.56%	21.42%	47.02%	-0.30	+1.0	18
2011-12-09	Bala Town	W 2-1	39.8	1285	1155	60.69%	20.38%	18.93%	+0.94	+6.0	41
2011-12-09	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	39.8	1155	1285	18.93%	20.38%	60.69%	-0.94	-6.0	30
2011-12-10	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	36.4	1072	930	61.86%	20.22%	17.91%	+1.00	+9.9	22
2011-12-10	@ Airbus UK	L 1-3	36.4	930	1072	17.91%	20.22%	61.86%	-1.00	-9.9	10
2011-12-10	Newtown	W 3-2	48.3	1029	999	49.28%	21.33%	29.39%	+0.39	+8.4	21
2011-12-10	@ Afan Lido	L 2-3	48.3	999	1029	29.39%	21.33%	49.28%	-0.39	-8.4	16
2011-12-10	The New Saints	D 1-1	54.5	1039	1375	10.80%	18.45%	70.75%	-1.61	+4.2	15
2011-12-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.5	1375	1039	70.75%	18.45%	10.80%	+1.61	-4.2	40
2011-12-11	Prestatyn Town	W 3-2	43.5	1342	1147	66.69%	19.40%	13.91%	+1.30	+4.3	42
2011-12-11	@ Llanelli	L 2-3	43.5	1147	1342	13.91%	19.40%	66.69%	-1.30	-4.3	27
2011-12-16	Llanelli	L 1-2	37.5	1043	1346	12.65%	19.06%	68.29%	-1.43	-4.1	15
2011-12-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	37.5	1346	1043	68.29%	19.06%	12.65%	+1.43	+4.1	45
2011-12-17	Airbus UK	L 1-3	41.2	991	1082	32.79%	21.45%	45.75%	-0.27	-16.8	16
2011-12-17	@ Newtown	W 3-1	41.2	1082	991	45.75%	21.45%	32.79%	+0.27	+16.8	25
2011-12-17	Bangor City	L 1-2	38.3	1024	1291	15.05%	19.67%	65.27%	-1.23	-4.9	18
2011-12-17	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	38.3	1291	1024	65.27%	19.67%	15.05%	+1.23	+4.9	44
2011-12-17	The New Saints	L 0-1	29.5	920	1371	6.20%	16.07%	77.73%	-2.24	-2.1	10
2011-12-17	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	29.5	1371	920	77.73%	16.07%	6.20%	+2.24	+2.1	43
2011-12-26	Afan Lido	D 2-2	59.0	1019	1037	42.92%	21.51%	35.56%	+0.13	-0.3	19
2011-12-26	@ Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.0	1037	1019	35.56%	21.51%	42.92%	-0.13	+0.3	22
2011-12-26	Airbus UK	W 1-0	37.2	1149	1098	51.97%	21.18%	26.84%	+0.51	+8.7	33
2011-12-26	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	37.2	1098	1149	26.84%	21.18%	51.97%	-0.51	-8.7	25
2011-12-26	Carmarthen Town	W 4-1	34.4	1039	918	59.84%	20.49%	19.68%	+0.89	+15.3	18
2011-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-4	34.4	918	1039	19.68%	20.49%	59.84%	-0.89	-15.3	10
2011-12-26	The New Saints	L 1-3	32.6	974	1373	7.98%	17.19%	74.83%	-1.95	-4.4	16
2011-12-26	@ Newtown	W 3-1	32.6	1373	974	74.83%	17.19%	7.98%	+1.95	+4.4	46
2011-12-27	Neath	L 0-1	46.5	1350	1277	54.65%	21.00%	24.35%	+0.63	-15.7	45
2011-12-27	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	46.5	1277	1350	24.35%	21.00%	54.65%	-0.63	+15.7	36
2011-12-27	Prestatyn Town	W 5-3	42.8	1295	1143	62.96%	20.06%	16.98%	+1.06	+8.0	47
2011-12-27	@ Bangor City	L 3-5	42.8	1143	1295	16.98%	20.06%	62.96%	-1.06	-8.0	27
2012-01-02	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	50.1	903	1054	25.41%	21.08%	53.51%	-0.60	+14.5	13
2012-01-02	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	50.1	1054	903	53.51%	21.08%	25.41%	+0.60	-14.5	18
2012-01-02	Bala Town	L 1-2	45.0	1090	1158	35.78%	21.52%	42.70%	-0.14	-10.4	25
2012-01-02	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	45.0	1158	1090	42.70%	21.52%	35.78%	+0.14	+10.4	36
2012-01-02	Bangor City	L 0-5	30.5	1135	1303	23.54%	20.93%	55.53%	-0.69	-34.2	27
2012-01-02	@ Prestatyn Town	W 5-0	30.5	1303	1135	55.53%	20.93%	23.54%	+0.69	+34.2	50
2012-01-02	Llanelli	W 2-0	38.6	1293	1335	39.51%	21.54%	38.95%	+0.00	+22.2	39
2012-01-02	@ Neath	L 0-2	38.6	1335	1293	38.95%	21.54%	39.51%	+0.00	-22.2	45
2012-01-02	Newtown	W 5-0	23.0	1378	970	79.96%	15.06%	4.98%	+2.46	+7.2	49
2012-01-02	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	23.0	970	1378	4.98%	15.06%	79.96%	-2.46	-7.2	16
2012-01-02	Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	48.5	1038	1019	47.86%	21.39%	30.76%	+0.33	-13.1	22
2012-01-02	@ Afan Lido	W 2-1	48.5	1019	1038	30.76%	21.39%	47.86%	-0.33	+13.1	22
2012-01-07	Neath	D 1-1	54.0	1100	1315	19.14%	20.41%	60.44%	-0.94	+2.8	28
2012-01-07	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	54.0	1315	1100	60.44%	20.41%	19.14%	+0.94	-2.8	40
2012-01-12	Port Talbot Town	W 3-2	41.3	1312	1032	72.89%	17.83%	9.28%	+1.76	+2.8	43
2012-01-12	@ Neath	L 2-3	41.3	1032	1312	9.28%	17.83%	72.89%	-1.76	-2.8	22
2012-01-14	Afan Lido	W 3-1	36.3	1168	1024	62.11%	20.19%	17.70%	+1.02	+9.8	39
2012-01-14	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	36.3	1024	1168	17.70%	20.19%	62.11%	-1.02	-9.8	22

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2012-02-04	Neath	L 1-2	52.2	1385	1315	54.23%	21.03%	24.74%	+0.61	-14.7	0
2012-02-04	@ The New Saints	W 2-1	52.2	1315	1385	24.74%	21.03%	54.23%	-0.61	+14.7	3
2012-02-04	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	37.1	1338	1103	69.74%	18.71%	11.55%	+1.51	+3.7	3
2012-02-04	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	37.1	1103	1338	11.55%	18.71%	69.74%	-1.51	-3.7	0
2012-02-10	Afan Lido	L 1-2	48.4	1029	1015	47.36%	21.40%	31.24%	+0.31	-13.0	0
2012-02-10	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	48.4	1015	1029	31.24%	21.40%	47.36%	-0.31	+13.0	3
2012-02-10	Airbus UK	L 0-4	31.7	963	1079	29.47%	21.33%	49.20%	-0.41	-33.6	0
2012-02-10	@ Newtown	W 4-0	31.7	1079	963	49.20%	21.33%	29.47%	+0.41	+33.6	3
2012-02-10	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.1	1099	1370	14.75%	19.60%	65.65%	-1.25	-18.1	0
2012-02-10	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	27.1	1370	1099	65.65%	19.60%	14.75%	+1.25	+18.1	3
2012-02-11	Bangor City	L 0-1	43.0	1313	1341	41.38%	21.53%	37.08%	+0.07	-12.4	0
2012-02-11	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	43.0	1341	1313	37.08%	21.53%	41.38%	-0.07	+12.4	6
2012-02-11	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	59.3	1040	918	59.99%	20.47%	19.54%	+0.90	-2.0	1
2012-02-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.3	918	1040	19.54%	20.47%	59.99%	-0.90	+2.0	1
2012-02-12	Bala Town	W 2-0	31.0	1330	1178	62.85%	20.08%	17.07%	+1.06	+10.9	6
2012-02-12	@ Neath	L 0-2	31.0	1178	1330	17.07%	20.08%	62.85%	-1.06	-10.9	0
2012-02-17	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.4	1038	1016	48.26%	21.37%	30.37%	+0.35	-1.1	2
2012-02-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.4	1016	1038	30.37%	21.37%	48.26%	-0.35	+1.1	1
2012-02-18	Afan Lido	D 1-1	53.4	929	1028	31.72%	21.42%	46.85%	-0.31	+1.0	1
2012-02-18	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.4	1028	929	46.85%	21.42%	31.72%	+0.31	-1.0	4
2012-02-18	Airbus UK	W 1-0	46.4	920	1113	21.10%	20.67%	58.22%	-0.83	+16.6	4
2012-02-18	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	46.4	1113	920	58.22%	20.67%	21.10%	+0.83	-16.6	3
2012-02-18	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	31.5	1341	1081	71.52%	18.24%	10.25%	+1.65	+3.5	9
2012-02-18	@ Neath	L 0-1	31.5	1081	1341	10.25%	18.24%	71.52%	-1.65	-3.5	0
2012-02-18	The New Saints	L 0-2	37.5	1300	1388	33.13%	21.46%	45.41%	-0.25	-19.5	0
2012-02-18	@ Llanelli	W 2-0	37.5	1388	1300	45.41%	21.46%	33.13%	+0.25	+19.5	6
2012-02-19	Bangor City	L 0-1	36.0	1167	1354	21.75%	20.75%	57.51%	-0.79	-7.2	0
2012-02-19	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	36.0	1354	1167	57.51%	20.75%	21.75%	+0.79	+7.2	9
2012-03-02	Bala Town	W 3-2	42.6	1408	1160	70.71%	18.46%	10.83%	+1.58	+3.3	9
2012-03-02	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	42.6	1160	1408	10.83%	18.46%	70.71%	-1.58	-3.3	0
2012-03-02	Carmarthen Town	W 5-1	33.8	1027	936	56.59%	20.83%	22.57%	+0.72	+22.3	7
2012-03-02	@ Afan Lido	L 1-5	33.8	936	1027	22.57%	20.83%	56.59%	-0.72	-22.3	4
2012-03-03	Llanelli	L 1-2	40.1	1078	1281	20.20%	20.56%	59.24%	-0.88	-6.4	0
2012-03-03	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	40.1	1281	1078	59.24%	20.56%	20.20%	+0.88	+6.4	3
2012-03-03	Neath	L 1-3	47.6	1361	1344	47.62%	21.39%	30.98%	+0.32	-22.7	9
2012-03-03	@ Bangor City	W 3-1	47.6	1344	1361	30.98%	21.39%	47.62%	-0.32	+22.7	12
2012-03-03	Newtown	D 1-1	53.6	1018	930	56.27%	20.86%	22.86%	+0.71	-2.2	2
2012-03-03	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.6	930	1018	22.86%	20.86%	56.27%	-0.71	+2.2	2
2012-03-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	47.2	1096	1037	53.00%	21.12%	25.88%	+0.55	+7.5	6
2012-03-04	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	47.2	1037	1096	25.88%	21.12%	53.00%	-0.55	-7.5	2
2012-03-09	Neath	L 1-2	45.8	1287	1367	34.22%	21.49%	44.29%	-0.21	-10.0	3
2012-03-09	@ Llanelli	W 2-1	45.8	1367	1287	44.29%	21.49%	34.22%	+0.21	+10.0	15
2012-03-09	Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	43.3	914	1015	31.39%	21.41%	47.20%	-0.33	+13.8	7
2012-03-09	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	43.3	1015	914	47.20%	21.41%	31.39%	+0.33	-13.8	2
2012-03-09	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	30.3	1157	1071	56.00%	20.89%	23.11%	+0.69	+20.9	3
2012-03-09	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	30.3	1071	1157	23.11%	20.89%	56.00%	-0.69	-20.9	0
2012-03-10	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.4	932	1029	31.93%	21.43%	46.64%	-0.30	+0.9	3
2012-03-10	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.4	1029	932	46.64%	21.43%	31.93%	+0.30	-0.9	3
2012-03-10	Afan Lido	D 1-1	53.5	1104	1049	52.43%	21.16%	26.41%	+0.53	-1.7	7
2012-03-10	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.5	1049	1104	26.41%	21.16%	52.43%	-0.53	+1.7	8
2012-03-10	The New Saints	L 1-3	44.6	1338	1411	35.18%	21.51%	43.32%	-0.17	-17.7	9
2012-03-10	@ Bangor City	W 3-1	44.6	1411	1338	43.32%	21.51%	35.18%	+0.17	+17.7	12
2012-03-16	Afan Lido	D 1-1	53.4	1028	1051	42.29%	21.52%	36.19%	+0.11	-0.4	4
2012-03-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.4	1051	1028	36.19%	21.52%	42.29%	-0.11	+0.4	9
2012-03-16	Bangor City	L 0-4	26.9	1051	1321	14.79%	19.61%	65.59%	-1.25	-18.1	0
2012-03-16	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	26.9	1321	1051	65.59%	19.61%	14.79%	+1.25	+18.1	12
2012-03-17	Bala Town	L 1-2	51.6	1277	1178	57.59%	20.74%	21.67%	+0.77	-15.5	3
2012-03-17	@ Llanelli	W 2-1	51.6	1178	1277	21.67%	20.74%	57.59%	-0.77	+15.5	6
2012-03-17	Newtown	W 3-2	49.6	928	933	44.66%	21.48%	33.86%	+0.20	+9.4	10
2012-03-17	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	49.6	933	928	33.86%	21.48%	44.66%	-0.20	-9.4	3
2012-03-17	The New Saints	L 0-1	44.4	1377	1429	38.09%	21.54%	40.37%	-0.05	-11.6	15
2012-03-17	@ Neath	W 1-0	44.4	1429	1377	40.37%	21.54%	38.09%	+0.05	+11.6	15
2012-03-18	Airbus UK	W 2-1	48.3	1002	1102	31.49%	21.41%	47.10%	-0.32	+13.0	5
2012-03-18	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	48.3	1102	1002	47.10%	21.41%	31.49%	+0.32	-13.0	7
2012-03-23	Newtown	W 3-1	35.7	1089	924	64.12%	19.88%	16.01%	+1.13	+8.9	10
2012-03-23	@ Airbus UK	L 1-3	35.7	924	1089	16.01%	19.88%	64.12%	-1.13	-8.9	3
2012-03-23	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.0	1051	1014	50.19%	21.28%	28.53%	+0.43	-1.0	10
2012-03-23	@ Afan Lido	D 2-2	59.0	1014	1051	28.53%	21.28%	50.19%	-0.43	+1.0	6
2012-03-23	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	34.1	1440	1032	79.97%	15.06%	4.97%	+2.46	+1.5	18
2012-03-23	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	34.1	1032	1440	4.97%	15.06%	79.97%	-2.46	-1.5	0
2012-03-24	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	33.3	937	1028	32.76%	21.45%	45.79%	-0.27	-28.1	10
2012-03-24	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	33.3	1028	937	45.79%	21.45%	32.76%	+0.27	+28.1	7
2012-03-24	Llanelli	D 2-2	60.1	1339	1262	55.09%	20.96%	23.95%	+0.65	-1.5	13
2012-03-24	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	60.1	1262	1339	23.95%	20.96%	55.09%	-0.65	+1.5	4
2012-03-25	Neath	D 2-2	59.8	1193	1365	23.18%	20.89%	55.93%	-0.71	+1.6	7
2012-03-25	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	59.8	1365	1193	55.93%	20.89%	23.18%	+0.71	-1.6	16
2012-03-31	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	43.9	915	909	46.14%	21.44%	32.42%	+0.26	+9.6	6
2012-03-31	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.9	909	915	32.42%	21.44%	46.14%	-0.26	-9.6	10
2012-04-06	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	45.9	1016	1056	39.71%	21.54%	38.75%	+0.01	+11.1	9
2012-04-06	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	45.9	1056	1016	38.75%	21.54%	39.71%	-0.01	-11.1	7
2012-04-06	Bala Town	W 4-2	41.3	1337	1195	61.98%	20.21%	17.81%	+1.01	+8.8	16
2012-04-06	@ Bangor City	L 2-4	41.3	1195	1337	17.81%	20.21%	61.98%	-1.01	-8.8	7
2012-04-06	Newtown	L 1-6	44.3	1050	924	60.33%	20.43%	19.24%	+0.92	-62.8	10
2012-04-06	@ Afan Lido	W 6-1	44.3	924	1050	19.24%	20.43%	60.33%	-0.92	+62.8	9
2012-04-07	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	48.6	1098	900	66.95%	19.35%	13.70%	+1.31	-19.0	10
2012-04-07	@ Airbus UK	W 1-0	48.6	900	1098	13.70%	19.35%	66.95%	-1.31	+19.0	13
2012-04-07	Llanelli	D 1-1	55.9	1442	1263	65.30%	19.67%	15.03%	+1.21	-3.5	19
2012-04-07	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.9	1263	1442	15.03%	19.67%	65.30%	-1.21	+3.5	5
2012-04-07	Neath	L 2-3	42.1	1031	1364	10.97%	18.51%	70.52%	-1.59	-3.4	0
2012-04-07	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-2	42.1	1364	1031	70.52%	18.51%	10.97%	+1.59	+3.4	19
2012-04-09	Llanelli	L 0-1	39.7	1186	1266	34.10%	21.49%	44.41%	-0.21	-10.6	7
2012-04-09	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	39.7	1266	1186	44.41%	21.49%	34.10%	+0.21	+10.6	8
2012-04-09	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.1	1079	1027	52.16%	21.17%	26.67%	+0.52	-1.2	11
2012-04-09	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	59.1	1027	1079	26.67%	21.17%	52.16%	-0.52	+1.2	10
2012-04-10	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	37.0	987	1045	37.26%	21.53%	41.21%	-0.09	-21.4	10
2012-04-10	@ Afan Lido	W 2-0	37.0	1045	987	41.21%	21.53%	37.26%	+0.09	+21.4	10
2012-04-13	Airbus UK	W 2-0	36.2	1066	1078	43.83%	21.50%	34.67%	+0.17	+20.2	13
2012-04-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	36.2	1078	1066	34.67%	21.50%	43.83%	-0.17	-20.2	11
2012-04-14	Afan Lido	W 3-2	51.4	918	966	38.74%	21.54%	39.72%	-0.03	+10.7	16
2012-04-14	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	51.4	966	918	39.72%	21.54%	38.74%	+0.03	-10.7	10
2012-04-14	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.0	987	1028	39.69%	21.54%	38.77%	+0.01	-0.0	10
2012-04-14	@ Newtown	D 2-2	59.0	1028	987	38.77%	21.54%	39.69%	-0.01	+0.0	11
2012-04-14	Prestatyn Town	W 3-2	41.9	1277	1027	70.84%	18.43%	10.74%	+1.59	+3.3	11
2012-04-14	@ Llanelli	L 2-3	41.9	1027	1277	10.74%	18.43%	70.84%	-1.59	-3.3	0
2012-04-15	Bangor City	L 1-3	47.9	1367	1346	48.20%	21.37%	30.43%	+0.34	-22.9	19
2012-04-15	@ Neath	W 3-1	47.9	1346	1367	30.43%	21.37%	48.20%	-0.34	+22.9	19
2012-04-15	The New Saints	L 0-1	34.2	1175	1438	15.28%	19.72%	65.00%	-1.21	-5.2	7
2012-04-15	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	34.2	1438	1175	65.00%	19.72%	15.28%	+1.21	+5.2	22
2012-04-21	Airbus UK	L 1-2	43.6	955	1058	31.25%	21.40%	47.35%	-0.33	-9.3	10
2012-04-21	@ Afan Lido	W 2-1	43.6	1058	955	47.35%	21.40%	31.25%	+0.33	+9.3	14
2012-04-21	Bala Town	L 1-2	41.9	1024	1170	26.03%	21.13%	52.84%	-0.57	-8.0	0
2012-04-21	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	41.9	1170	1024	52.84%	21.13%	26.03%	+0.57	+8.0	10
2012-04-21	Bangor City	W 5-0	34.4	1444	1369	54.81%	20.99%	24.20%	+0.64	+35.0	25
2012-04-21	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	34.4	1369	1444	24.20%	20.99%	54.81%	-0.64	-35.1	19
2012-04-21	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	46.2	1028	929	57.49%	20.75%	21.76%	+0.77	-16.4	11
2012-04-21	@ Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	46.2	929	1028	21.76%	20.75%	57.49%	-0.77	+16.4	19
2012-04-21	Llanelli	L 1-5	44.3	1344	1280	53.52%	21.08%	25.39%	+0.58	-45.9	19
2012-04-21	@ Neath	W 5-1	44.3	1280	1344	25.39%	21.08%	53.52%	-0.58	+45.9	14
2012-04-21	Newtown	W 3-2	45.8	1087	987	57.60%	20.74%	21.67%	+0.77	+6.5	16
2012-04-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	45.8	987	1087	21.67%	20.74%	57.60%	-0.77	-6.5	10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-11-18	6.67%	@ Afan Lido	970	3	The New Saints	1405	1
2	2011-11-26	11.54%	@ Newtown	981	2	Bangor City	1303	1
3	2012-04-07	13.70%	Carmarthen Town	900	1	@ Airbus UK	1098	0
4	2011-08-26	16.69%	@ Afan Lido	982	1	Neath	1227	0
5	2011-11-13	17.87%	Bangor City	1279	4	@ The New Saints	1421	3
6	2012-04-06	19.24%	Newtown	924	6	@ Afan Lido	1050	1
7	2011-08-19	19.72%	@ Port Talbot Town	1131	2	The New Saints	1339	1
8	2012-02-18	21.10%	@ Carmarthen Town	920	1	Airbus UK	1113	0
9	2011-11-05	21.15%	@ Carmarthen Town	948	2	Prestatyn Town	1141	1
10	2012-03-17	21.67%	Bala Town	1178	2	@ Llanelli	1277	1
11	2012-04-21	21.76%	Carmarthen Town	929	1	@ Port Talbot Town	1028	0
12	2011-11-11	22.46%	Aberystwyth Town	1002	4	@ Port Talbot Town	1093	0
13	2011-12-27	24.35%	Neath	1277	1	@ Llanelli	1350	0
14	2012-02-04	24.74%	Neath	1315	2	@ The New Saints	1385	1
15	2011-08-26	25.32%	@ Carmarthen Town	994	2	Port Talbot Town	1147	0
16	2012-04-21	25.39%	Llanelli	1280	5	@ Neath	1344	1
17	2012-01-02	25.41%	@ Carmarthen Town	903	2	Aberystwyth Town	1054	1
18	2011-11-05	26.68%	@ Newtown	981	2	Port Talbot Town	1121	0
19	2011-10-21	27.78%	@ Airbus UK	1034	2	Prestatyn Town	1165	1
20	2012-04-15	30.43%	Bangor City	1346	3	@ Neath	1367	1
21	2012-01-02	30.76%	Port Talbot Town	1019	2	@ Afan Lido	1038	1
22	2012-03-03	30.98%	Neath	1344	3	@ Bangor City	1361	1
23	2011-09-10	31.21%	Bala Town	1170	1	@ Prestatyn Town	1185	0
24	2012-02-10	31.24%	Afan Lido	1015	2	@ Port Talbot Town	1029	1
25	2012-03-09	31.39%	@ Carmarthen Town	914	1	Port Talbot Town	1015	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-04-06	62.83	Newtown	6	924	19.24%	@ Afan Lido	1	1050	60.33%	20.43%
2	2011-11-11	58.11	Aberystwyth Town	4	1002	22.46%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1093	56.72%	20.82%
3	2011-09-03	47.84	Bala Town	4	1104	32.99%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1105	45.55%	21.46%
4	2012-04-21	45.92	Llanelli	5	1280	25.39%	@ Neath	1	1344	53.52%	21.08%
5	2012-04-21	35.06	@ The New Saints	5	1444	54.81%	Bangor City	0	1369	24.20%	20.99%
6	2011-11-18	35.01	@ Afan Lido	3	970	6.67%	The New Saints	1	1405	76.93%	16.39%
7	2012-01-02	34.22	Bangor City	5	1303	55.53%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1135	23.54%	20.93%
8	2012-02-10	33.63	Airbus UK	4	1079	49.20%	@ Newtown	0	963	29.47%	21.33%
9	2011-09-25	29.19	@ Neath	4	1237	54.01%	Bala Town	0	1169	24.94%	21.05%
10	2011-08-26	29.08	@ Carmarthen Town	2	994	25.32%	Port Talbot Town	0	1147	53.60%	21.08%
11	2011-11-05	28.37	@ Newtown	2	981	26.68%	Port Talbot Town	0	1121	52.15%	21.17%
12	2012-03-24	28.09	Aberystwyth Town	3	1028	45.79%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	937	32.76%	21.45%
13	2011-09-10	26.97	The New Saints	3	1358	47.42%	@ Bangor City	0	1255	31.18%	21.40%
14	2011-08-19	25.53	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1076	42.51%	Newtown	1	1097	35.97%	21.52%
15	2011-08-27	24.68	Bala Town	2	1079	34.13%	@ Newtown	0	1072	44.39%	21.49%
16	2011-09-17	24.26	Neath	4	1212	59.22%	@ Newtown	0	1010	20.22%	20.56%
17	2011-09-03	23.27	@ Prestatyn Town	6	1153	60.73%	Carmarthen Town	1	1024	18.89%	20.38%
18	2011-11-25	23.19	Afan Lido	5	1005	40.27%	@ Carmarthen Town	2	954	38.19%	21.54%
19	2011-08-21	23.16	@ Neath	2	1204	37.40%	Bangor City	0	1260	41.07%	21.53%
20	2012-04-15	22.92	Bangor City	3	1346	30.43%	@ Neath	1	1367	48.20%	21.37%
21	2012-03-03	22.68	Neath	3	1344	30.98%	@ Bangor City	1	1361	47.62%	21.39%
22	2012-03-02	22.30	@ Afan Lido	5	1027	56.59%	Carmarthen Town	1	936	22.57%	20.83%
23	2012-01-02	22.21	@ Neath	2	1293	39.51%	Llanelli	0	1335	38.95%	21.54%
24	2011-10-01	21.92	@ Carmarthen Town	3	966	32.80%	Airbus UK	1	1056	45.75%	21.45%
25	2011-09-10	21.58	Port Talbot Town	2	1113	40.91%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1057	37.56%	21.54%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-11-13	62.8	Bangor City	4	1279	17.87%	@ The New Saints	3	1421	61.92%	20.22%
2	2011-10-14	60.1	@ Bala Town	2	1139	15.37%	The New Saints	2	1401	64.88%	19.74%
3	2012-03-24	60.1	@ Bangor City	2	1339	55.09%	Llanelli	2	1262	23.95%	20.96%
4	2011-11-11	59.8	@ Carmarthen Town	2	959	12.39%	Neath	2	1267	68.62%	18.98%
5	2012-03-25	59.8	@ Bala Town	2	1193	23.18%	Neath	2	1365	55.93%	20.89%
6	2011-10-28	59.5	@ Bala Town	2	1149	64.55%	Newtown	2	979	15.65%	19.80%
7	2011-11-06	59.4	@ Airbus UK	2	1053	19.18%	Neath	2	1267	60.40%	20.42%
8	2012-02-11	59.3	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1040	59.99%	Carmarthen Town	2	918	19.54%	20.47%
9	2011-08-19	59.2	@ Prestatyn Town	2	1160	54.55%	Airbus UK	2	1087	24.45%	21.01%
10	2012-04-09	59.1	@ Airbus UK	2	1079	52.16%	Port Talbot Town	2	1027	26.67%	21.17%
11	2011-11-08	59.0	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1093	35.40%	Bala Town	2	1164	43.09%	21.51%
12	2011-12-26	59.0	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1019	42.92%	Afan Lido	2	1037	35.56%	21.51%
13	2012-03-23	59.0	@ Afan Lido	2	1051	50.19%	Port Talbot Town	2	1014	28.53%	21.28%
14	2012-04-14	59.0	@ Newtown	2	987	39.69%	Port Talbot Town	2	1028	38.77%	21.54%
15	2012-04-07	55.9	@ The New Saints	1	1442	65.30%	Llanelli	1	1263	15.03%	19.67%
16	2011-11-09	55.3	@ Neath	1	1265	24.69%	The New Saints	1	1423	54.28%	21.03%
17	2011-08-12	54.7	@ The New Saints	1	1343	73.24%	Bala Town	1	1058	9.04%	17.72%
18	2011-10-30	54.7	@ Neath	1	1271	74.00%	Afan Lido	1	974	8.53%	17.47%
19	2011-10-30	54.7	@ Llanelli	1	1333	73.21%	Airbus UK	1	1048	9.06%	17.73%
20	2011-12-10	54.5	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1039	10.80%	The New Saints	1	1375	70.75%	18.45%
21	2011-11-26	54.4	@ Newtown	2	981	11.54%	Bangor City	1	1303	69.75%	18.71%
22	2011-10-14	54.1	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1015	14.79%	Neath	1	1285	65.60%	19.61%
23	2012-01-07	54.0	@ Prestatyn Town	1	1100	19.14%	Neath	1	1315	60.44%	20.41%
24	2011-08-27	53.9	@ Bangor City	1	1237	61.29%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1102	18.41%	20.30%
25	2011-08-28	53.7	@ Airbus UK	1	1089	22.78%	Llanelli	1	1265	56.36%	20.85%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-10-08	22.6	@ The New Saints	4	1395	79.94%	Carmarthen Town	0	988	4.99%	15.07%
2	2012-01-02	23.0	@ The New Saints	5	1378	79.96%	Newtown	0	970	4.98%	15.06%
3	2011-09-17	23.5	@ The New Saints	3	1385	79.25%	Afan Lido	0	992	5.35%	15.40%
4	2011-11-19	23.7	@ Bangor City	4	1294	76.06%	Carmarthen Town	0	962	7.21%	16.74%
5	2011-09-23	25.3	@ Bangor City	4	1233	70.69%	Newtown	0	986	10.85%	18.47%
6	2011-11-20	25.3	@ Neath	5	1264	72.11%	Newtown	0	996	9.82%	18.07%
7	2011-11-08	26.3	@ Llanelli	2	1317	77.25%	Carmarthen Town	0	963	6.49%	16.27%
8	2012-03-16	26.9	Bangor City	4	1321	65.59%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1051	14.79%	19.61%
9	2012-02-10	27.1	The New Saints	4	1370	65.65%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1099	14.75%	19.60%
10	2011-10-08	27.2	@ Llanelli	2	1325	74.42%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1021	8.25%	17.33%
11	2011-09-07	28.0	Llanelli	3	1252	63.96%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1000	16.14%	19.90%
12	2011-11-12	28.6	Llanelli	2	1321	69.43%	@ Newtown	0	1003	11.78%	18.79%
13	2011-09-17	28.7	Neath	4	1212	59.22%	@ Newtown	0	1010	20.22%	20.56%
14	2011-11-04	29.0	@ Bala Town	3	1147	60.47%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1020	19.12%	20.41%
15	2011-09-04	29.3	@ Neath	3	1209	59.50%	Airbus UK	0	1091	19.97%	20.53%
16	2011-09-10	29.3	@ Llanelli	9	1267	70.24%	Newtown	2	1026	11.18%	18.59%
17	2011-12-17	29.5	The New Saints	1	1371	77.73%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	920	6.20%	16.07%
18	2011-09-07	30.1	@ The New Saints	3	1339	58.90%	Neath	0	1227	20.50%	20.60%
19	2012-03-09	30.3	@ Bala Town	3	1157	56.00%	Prestatyn Town	0	1071	23.11%	20.89%
20	2011-09-23	30.4	@ Llanelli	2	1297	63.91%	Port Talbot Town	0	1134	16.18%	19.91%
21	2011-09-25	30.4	@ Neath	4	1237	54.01%	Bala Town	0	1169	24.94%	21.05%
22	2011-10-28	30.5	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1111	62.87%	Carmarthen Town	0	959	17.06%	20.08%
23	2012-01-02	30.5	Bangor City	5	1303	55.53%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1135	23.54%	20.93%
24	2011-10-29	30.6	Bangor City	2	1268	62.69%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1031	17.20%	20.10%
25	2011-08-19	30.8	@ Llanelli	4	1257	72.03%	Afan Lido	1	990	9.88%	18.09%