2012-13 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

76 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bala Town

10.80 points above expected

56 points · 45.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Llanelli

5.67 points below expected

36 points · 41.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	14	4	4	46	48	17	+31	46.92	-0.92
2	Airbus UK	22	12	3	7	39	59	31	+28	34.64	+4.36
3	Bangor City	22	10	6	6	36	51	34	+17	42.21	-6.21
4	Prestatyn Town	22	10	6	6	36	52	48	+4	31.48	+4.52
5	Port Talbot Town	22	9	5	8	32	40	37	+3	27.92	+4.08
6	GAP Connah's Quay	22	9	3	10	30	51	54	-3	27.27	+2.73
7	Carmarthen Town	22	8	6	8	30	31	36	-5	22.31	+7.69
8	Llanelli	22	7	6	9	27	28	44	-16	35.54	-8.54
9	Bala Town	22	7	5	10	26	33	38	-5	33.06	-7.06
10	Newtown	22	7	5	10	26	37	45	-8	23.96	+2.04
11	Aberystwyth Town	22	7	5	10	26	28	45	-17	23.67	+2.33
12	Afan Lido	22	4	2	16	14	32	61	-29	20.32	-6.32

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	24	4	4	76	86	22	+64	66.73	+9.27
2	Airbus UK	32	17	3	12	54	76	42	+34	54.89	-0.89
3	Bangor City	32	14	9	9	51	65	53	+12	52.51	-1.51
4	Port Talbot Town	32	13	8	11	47	51	52	-1	47.56	-0.56
5	Prestatyn Town	32	11	7	14	40	62	79	-17	42.45	-2.45
6	Carmarthen Town	32	10	7	15	37	36	50	-14	39.09	-2.09

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bala Town	32	17	5	10	56	62	41	+21	45.20	+10.80
2	GAP Connah's Quay	32	12	5	15	41	62	69	-7	43.39	-2.39
3	Newtown	32	10	7	15	37	44	54	-10	39.47	-2.47
4	Aberystwyth Town	32	9	10	13	37	40	59	-19	39.78	-2.78
5	Llanelli	32	10	6	16	36	41	68	-27	41.67	-5.67
6	Afan Lido	32	8	3	21	27	43	79	-36	22.56	+4.44

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bala Town	56	45.20	+10.80
2	The New Saints	76	66.73	+9.27
3	Afan Lido	27	22.56	+4.44
4	Port Talbot Town	47	47.56	-0.56
5	Airbus UK	54	54.89	-0.89

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Llanelli	36	41.67	-5.67
2	Aberystwyth Town	37	39.78	-2.78
3	Newtown	37	39.47	-2.47
4	Prestatyn Town	40	42.45	-2.45
5	GAP Connah's Quay	41	43.39	-2.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	10	Feb 8 – Apr 27	1 in 366
2	The New Saints	11	Feb 2 – Apr 27	1 in 76
3	Newtown	3	Dec 22 – Jan 1	1 in 39
4	Prestatyn Town	3	Sep 8 – Sep 15	1 in 32
5	GAP Connah's Quay	3	Aug 25 – Sep 8	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Afan Lido	10	Sep 15 – Nov 24	1 in 206
2	Bala Town	4	Aug 31 – Sep 15	1 in 95
3	Prestatyn Town	8	Feb 15 – Apr 20	1 in 95
4	Llanelli	4	Oct 27 – Nov 17	1 in 91
5	GAP Connah's Quay	3	Oct 19 – Nov 3	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carmarthen Town	7	Nov 3 – Dec 26	1 in 495
2	GAP Connah's Quay	7	Dec 26 – Mar 2	1 in 61
3	Prestatyn Town	7	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 29
4	Airbus UK	7	Sep 15 – Oct 26	1 in 26
5	The New Saints	17	Dec 1 – Apr 27	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor City	9	Dec 1 – Feb 16	1 in 2,409
2	Bala Town	6	Aug 17 – Sep 15	1 in 56
3	Prestatyn Town	12	Jan 5 – Apr 20	1 in 53
4	Llanelli	6	Oct 27 – Nov 30	1 in 46
5	GAP Connah's Quay	5	Mar 2 – Apr 9	1 in 22

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1434	76	+32	15	11.4	+3.6
Bala Town	1241	56	+39	15	10.4	+4.6
Airbus UK	1236	54	-6	6	8.0	-2.0
Bangor City	1215	51	-15	7	8.2	-1.2
Port Talbot Town	1126	47	+15	8	5.8	+2.2
GAP Connah's Quay	1067	41	-1	7	7.4	-0.4
Prestatyn Town	1023	40	-28	3	4.4	-1.4
Aberystwyth Town	1049	37	+2	6	7.0	-1.0
Newtown	1049	37	-6	4	6.8	-2.8
Carmarthen Town	1040	37	-23	1	4.4	-3.4
Llanelli	1032	36	-33	3	6.8	-3.8
Afan Lido	949	27	+2	7	4.2	+2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AL	AU	BT	BC	CT	GCQ	LLA	NEW	PTT	PT	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	2-2-0 6.78	1-0-1 1.83	0-1-3 4.11	0-1-1 1.68	1-0-1 3.28	2-2-0 4.58	1-1-2 4.76	0-2-2 5.76	1-0-1 2.53	1-1-0 1.91	0-0-2 1.03
Afan Lido	0-2-2 4.42	—	0-0-2 1.44	1-0-3 3.26	0-0-2 1.11	1-1-0 2.56	2-0-2 3.77	1-0-3 3.38	3-0-1 4.45	0-0-2 2.00	0-0-2 2.09	0-0-2 0.92
Airbus UK	1-0-1 3.78	2-0-0 4.20	—	2-0-0 2.30	1-0-3 4.74	1-0-3 7.95	0-1-1 3.92	1-1-0 3.17	2-0-0 3.53	2-1-1 6.84	4-0-0 7.07	1-0-3 3.38
Bala Town	3-1-0 7.11	3-0-1 7.99	0-0-2 3.30	—	1-0-1 1.94	1-1-0 3.56	3-0-1 6.57	3-0-1 6.39	2-2-0 7.31	1-0-1 3.00	0-0-2 2.83	0-1-1 1.38
Bangor City	1-1-0 3.94	2-0-0 4.54	3-0-1 6.45	1-0-1 3.67	—	3-1-0 8.47	2-0-0 3.83	0-1-1 3.73	1-0-1 4.23	0-4-0 7.69	1-2-1 7.97	0-0-4 4.11
Carmarthen Town	1-0-1 2.32	0-1-1 3.03	3-0-1 3.28	0-1-1 2.04	0-1-3 2.80	—	0-1-1 2.13	1-0-1 2.49	2-0-0 2.50	1-1-2 4.59	1-1-2 4.96	1-1-2 1.73
GAP Connah's Quay	0-2-2 6.62	2-0-2 7.45	1-1-0 1.70	1-0-3 4.64	0-0-2 1.78	1-1-0 3.47	—	4-0-0 4.85	2-0-2 6.75	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 2.75	0-0-2 1.25
Llanelli	2-1-1 6.43	3-0-1 7.86	0-1-1 2.42	1-0-3 4.82	1-1-0 1.87	1-0-1 3.11	0-0-4 6.35	—	1-1-2 6.78	1-0-1 3.87	0-1-1 3.54	0-1-1 1.64
Newtown	2-2-0 5.43	1-0-3 6.75	0-0-2 2.09	0-2-2 3.90	1-0-1 1.41	0-0-2 3.10	2-0-2 4.45	2-1-1 4.43	—	0-1-1 2.83	1-0-1 1.97	1-1-0 1.02
Port Talbot Town	1-0-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.61	1-1-2 4.37	1-0-1 2.59	0-4-0 3.53	2-1-1 6.61	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 1.74	1-1-0 2.76	—	3-1-0 5.60	0-0-4 2.43
Prestatyn Town	0-1-1 3.70	2-0-0 3.51	0-0-4 4.14	2-0-0 2.77	1-2-1 3.27	2-1-1 6.23	1-1-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.07	1-0-1 3.64	0-1-3 5.59	—	1-0-3 2.09
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.63	2-0-0 4.76	3-0-1 7.86	1-1-0 4.26	4-0-0 7.10	2-1-1 9.65	2-0-0 4.39	1-1-0 3.98	0-1-1 4.65	4-0-0 8.86	3-0-1 9.24	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.74	+7.1
Allowed	0.73	-6.7
Differential	0.95	+4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.69%	8.33%	3.91%	3.12%	0.78%	2.34%	23.18%
1	8.33%	7.29%	6.51%	2.86%	3.12%	3.12%	31.25%
2	3.91%	6.51%	4.17%	2.08%	2.60%	0.52%	19.79%
3	3.12%	2.86%	2.08%	2.08%	0.52%	0.26%	10.94%
4	0.78%	3.12%	2.60%	0.52%	1.04%	0.26%	8.33%
5+	2.34%	3.12%	0.52%	0.26%	0.26%	—	6.51%
Total	23.18%	31.25%	19.79%	10.94%	8.33%	6.51%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.74	1.74	+0.00
SD	1.59	1.59	2.36
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.75%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	37.50%
1	6.25%	9.38%	—	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	31.25%
2	—	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
4	—	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	21.88%	18.75%	15.62%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.84	-0.59
SD	1.37	1.78	2.11
CV	1.09	0.97	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	31.25%
2	3.12%	15.62%	—	12.50%	9.38%	—	40.62%
3	—	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%
4	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	21.88%	6.25%	28.12%	18.75%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	2.47	-1.12
SD	0.97	1.74	1.74
CV	0.72	0.71	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
1	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
2	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	28.12%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
5+	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	25.00%	40.62%	21.88%	3.12%	9.38%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.38	1.31	+1.06
SD	1.96	1.18	2.46
CV	0.83	0.90	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
1	12.50%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
4	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	31.25%	37.50%	21.88%	—	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.28	+0.66
SD	1.54	1.44	2.16
CV	0.80	1.13	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	15.62%
1	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	—	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	18.75%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	28.12%	18.75%	28.12%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.03	1.66	+0.38
SD	1.69	1.47	2.41
CV	0.83	0.89	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	34.38%
1	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	31.25%
2	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.88%	34.38%	28.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	1.56	-0.44
SD	1.07	1.48	1.76
CV	0.95	0.95	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	18.75%
1	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	37.50%
2	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	12.50%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	9.38%
Total	9.38%	34.38%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.16	-0.22
SD	1.79	1.65	2.49
CV	0.93	0.76	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	31.25%
1	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	28.12%
2	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	28.12%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	34.38%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.12	-0.84
SD	1.17	1.68	2.07
CV	0.91	0.79	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
1	9.38%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	53.12%
2	6.25%	—	—	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	28.12%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.69	-0.31
SD	1.21	1.57	1.86
CV	0.88	0.93	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	9.38%	28.12%
1	18.75%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
2	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
3	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	28.12%	31.25%	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.62	-0.03
SD	1.74	1.60	2.58
CV	1.09	0.99	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	18.75%
1	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	28.12%
2	—	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	21.88%
3	—	3.12%	—	9.38%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	15.62%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	6.25%	34.38%	15.62%	15.62%	15.62%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.47	-0.53
SD	1.63	1.76	2.72
CV	0.84	0.71	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
1	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
2	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
3	15.62%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	46.88%	40.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.69	0.69	+2.00
SD	1.96	0.78	2.21
CV	0.73	1.13	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1434	76	46.92	+29.08	47.0%	34	37	44	47	51	55	60
Bala Town	1241	56	33.06	+22.94	13.0%	21	23	29	33	38	44	48
Airbus UK	1236	54	34.64	+19.36	82.0%	16	22	32	35	38	45	48
Bangor City	1215	51	42.21	+8.79	18.0%	28	31	38	43	46	52	55
Port Talbot Town	1126	47	27.92	+19.08	78.0%	17	18	23	28	32	37	43
GAP Connah's Quay	1067	41	27.27	+13.73	69.0%	14	19	23	27	31	36	41
Newtown	1049	37	23.96	+13.04	64.0%	10	14	20	24	28	33	37
Aberystwyth Town	1049	37	23.67	+13.33	69.0%	12	14	19	24	28	32	36
Carmarthen Town	1040	37	22.31	+14.69	95.0%	9	13	17	22	27	30	35
Llanelli	1032	36	35.54	+0.46	8.0%	24	26	31	35	40	45	49
Prestatyn Town	1023	40	31.48	+8.52	79.0%	17	21	28	31	35	40	50
Afan Lido	949	27	20.32	+6.68	16.0%	8	11	17	21	24	28	34

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.06%

Strong Edge

47.40%19.27%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 49.18 Elo pts.

165 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.29 goals

Neutral

-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.2

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

62%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.62/gm

Runaway

00.171/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.59 * Some Luck: 4.59 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.19 * Wild Swing: 9.19 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.64 * Way Off: 2.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.24 points

Some Luck

05.7414

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

01.654

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

Carmarthen Town

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

8.00%

Llanelli

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.15

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 104.19

1.68

Coin-Flip Parity

122.33

Interquartile Edge

62%

Even

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

Even

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

54%

Few

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Very Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Slight Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.81

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.49

Weak Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Very Shaky

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.36

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.81

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.097

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	62.00%	27.00%	8.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	4.00%	7.00%	19.00%	24.00%	22.00%	8.00%	5.00%	2.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Bangor City	26.00%	37.00%	19.00%	6.00%	4.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Port Talbot Town	—	2.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	12.00%	11.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	10.00%	3.00%
Prestatyn Town	2.00%	5.00%	12.00%	15.00%	12.00%	19.00%	12.00%	10.00%	5.00%	2.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	3.00%	11.00%	10.00%	11.00%	19.00%	16.00%	24.00%
Bala Town	1.00%	9.00%	13.00%	16.00%	16.00%	13.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—
GAP Connah's Quay	—	—	4.00%	5.00%	8.00%	15.00%	15.00%	10.00%	18.00%	10.00%	11.00%	4.00%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	8.00%	6.00%	13.00%	15.00%	10.00%	11.00%	22.00%	15.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	7.00%	7.00%	15.00%	15.00%	23.00%	13.00%	15.00%
Llanelli	5.00%	13.00%	17.00%	19.00%	15.00%	11.00%	11.00%	4.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—
Afan Lido	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	1.00%	11.00%	14.00%	16.00%	19.00%	36.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	93.53%	5.63%	0.76%	0.07%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	4.49%	54.48%	28.90%	9.57%	2.38%	0.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	1.76%	31.09%	43.23%	18.40%	4.87%	0.65%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Port Talbot Town	0.22%	7.35%	20.46%	46.87%	19.46%	5.64%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Prestatyn Town	—	1.23%	5.31%	17.65%	47.62%	28.19%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Carmarthen Town	—	0.22%	1.34%	7.44%	25.66%	65.34%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	42.09%	25.33%	16.08%	10.96%	5.47%	0.07%
GAP Connah's Quay	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.92%	26.57%	20.98%	15.83%	10.49%	0.21%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.81%	14.42%	20.53%	25.72%	30.70%	0.82%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.19%	14.37%	20.01%	23.96%	31.79%	0.68%
Llanelli	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.99%	19.31%	22.26%	23.21%	19.95%	0.28%
Afan Lido	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.14%	0.32%	1.60%	97.94%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bangor City	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Bala Town	99.00%	1.00%
Airbus UK	98.00%	2.00%
Llanelli	98.00%	2.00%
Port Talbot Town	95.00%	5.00%
Prestatyn Town	94.00%	6.00%
GAP Connah's Quay	93.00%	7.00%
Aberystwyth Town	73.00%	27.00%
Carmarthen Town	66.00%	34.00%
Newtown	65.00%	35.00%
Afan Lido	19.00%	81.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Carmarthen Town	100%	—
Port Talbot Town	100%	—
Prestatyn Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Bala Town	94.46%	5.54%
GAP Connah's Quay	89.30%	10.70%
Llanelli	79.77%	20.23%
Newtown	68.48%	31.52%
Aberystwyth Town	67.53%	32.47%
Afan Lido	0.46%	99.54%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2012-08-17	Airbus UK	W 1-0	32.1	1316	1093	70.46%	17.20%	12.34%	+1.65	+2.9	3
2012-08-17	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	32.1	1093	1316	12.34%	17.20%	70.46%	-1.65	-2.8	0
2012-08-17	GAP Connah's Quay	W 2-1	38.4	1230	1098	62.26%	18.92%	18.82%	+1.10	+4.1	3
2012-08-17	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	38.4	1098	1230	18.82%	18.92%	62.26%	-1.10	-4.1	0
2012-08-17	Newtown	D 4-4	64.5	1152	1048	59.47%	19.32%	21.21%	+0.93	-1.0	1
2012-08-17	@ Bala Town	D 4-4	64.5	1048	1152	21.21%	19.32%	59.47%	-0.93	+1.0	1
2012-08-18	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	39.8	1019	1107	34.40%	20.36%	45.24%	-0.23	+17.4	3
2012-08-18	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	39.8	1107	1019	45.24%	20.36%	34.40%	+0.23	-17.3	0
2012-08-18	Afan Lido	W 4-2	43.4	1066	1030	51.44%	20.08%	28.47%	+0.52	+9.2	3
2012-08-18	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-4	43.4	1030	1066	28.47%	20.08%	51.44%	-0.52	-9.2	0
2012-08-18	Llanelli	L 1-2	40.2	1064	1238	24.07%	19.69%	56.24%	-0.76	-5.1	0
2012-08-18	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	40.2	1238	1064	56.24%	19.69%	24.07%	+0.76	+5.1	3
2012-08-24	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.8	1089	1151	37.98%	20.43%	41.59%	-0.08	+0.2	1
2012-08-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.8	1151	1089	41.59%	20.43%	37.98%	+0.08	-0.2	2
2012-08-24	The New Saints	L 1-3	34.2	1021	1319	13.75%	17.68%	68.57%	-1.51	-5.2	0
2012-08-24	@ Afan Lido	W 3-1	34.2	1319	1021	68.57%	17.68%	13.75%	+1.51	+5.2	6
2012-08-25	Bangor City	W 3-2	54.7	1048	1234	22.95%	19.56%	57.49%	-0.83	+10.2	4
2012-08-25	@ Newtown	L 2-3	54.7	1234	1048	57.49%	19.56%	22.95%	+0.83	-10.2	3
2012-08-25	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	49.1	1090	1036	53.63%	19.93%	26.44%	+0.63	-10.1	0
2012-08-25	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	49.1	1036	1090	26.44%	19.93%	53.63%	-0.63	+10.1	6
2012-08-25	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	34.8	1094	1059	51.27%	20.09%	28.63%	+0.51	+11.9	3
2012-08-25	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 0-2	34.8	1059	1094	28.63%	20.09%	51.27%	-0.51	-11.9	0
2012-08-25	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.9	1244	1076	65.77%	18.29%	15.94%	+1.32	-1.8	4
2012-08-25	@ Llanelli	D 2-2	57.9	1076	1244	15.94%	18.29%	65.77%	-1.32	+1.8	4
2012-08-31	Afan Lido	D 1-1	52.8	1046	1016	50.72%	20.13%	29.15%	+0.48	-1.0	7
2012-08-31	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.8	1016	1046	29.15%	20.13%	50.72%	-0.48	+1.0	1
2012-08-31	Bala Town	W 1-0	42.1	1080	1151	36.71%	20.41%	42.88%	-0.13	+8.8	3
2012-08-31	@ Airbus UK	L 0-1	42.1	1151	1080	42.88%	20.41%	36.71%	+0.13	-8.8	2
2012-08-31	Newtown	W 1-0	39.5	1047	1059	45.10%	20.37%	34.53%	+0.23	+7.4	3
2012-08-31	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	39.5	1059	1047	34.53%	20.37%	45.10%	-0.23	-7.4	4
2012-08-31	Prestatyn Town	W 4-1	30.9	1324	1077	72.28%	16.68%	11.04%	+1.80	+5.9	9
2012-08-31	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	30.9	1077	1324	11.04%	16.68%	72.28%	-1.80	-5.9	4
2012-09-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 7-1	30.9	1224	1090	62.51%	18.88%	18.61%	+1.11	+18.5	6
2012-09-01	@ Bangor City	L 1-7	30.9	1090	1224	18.61%	18.88%	62.51%	-1.11	-18.5	1
2012-09-01	Llanelli	W 3-1	46.2	1106	1242	28.35%	20.07%	51.57%	-0.53	+16.8	6
2012-09-01	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 1-3	46.2	1242	1106	51.57%	20.07%	28.35%	+0.53	-16.8	4
2012-09-04	Airbus UK	L 0-2	42.2	1142	1089	53.55%	19.93%	26.51%	+0.62	-20.1	2
2012-09-04	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	42.2	1089	1142	26.51%	19.93%	53.55%	-0.62	+20.1	6
2012-09-04	Bangor City	D 0-0	49.8	1071	1242	24.42%	19.73%	55.85%	-0.74	+1.6	2
2012-09-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.8	1242	1071	55.85%	19.73%	24.42%	+0.74	-1.6	7
2012-09-04	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	44.2	1017	1045	42.69%	20.42%	36.89%	+0.12	+7.4	4
2012-09-04	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	44.2	1045	1017	36.89%	20.42%	42.69%	-0.12	-7.4	7
2012-09-04	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.8	1051	1055	46.22%	20.33%	33.44%	+0.28	-0.6	5
2012-09-04	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.8	1055	1051	33.44%	20.33%	46.22%	-0.28	+0.6	4
2012-09-08	Bala Town	W 1-0	43.1	1024	1122	33.03%	20.32%	46.65%	-0.30	+9.5	7
2012-09-08	@ Afan Lido	L 0-1	43.1	1122	1024	46.65%	20.32%	33.03%	+0.30	-9.5	2
2012-09-08	Bangor City	L 2-3	46.4	1109	1240	28.88%	20.11%	51.01%	-0.50	-5.7	6
2012-09-08	@ Airbus UK	W 3-2	46.4	1240	1109	51.01%	20.11%	28.88%	+0.50	+5.7	10
2012-09-08	Carmarthen Town	W 7-1	34.2	1072	1038	51.07%	20.11%	28.82%	+0.50	+27.4	7
2012-09-08	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-7	34.2	1038	1072	28.82%	20.11%	51.07%	-0.50	-27.4	7
2012-09-08	GAP Connah's Quay	L 1-3	41.7	1051	1123	36.54%	20.41%	43.05%	-0.14	-12.6	5
2012-09-08	@ Newtown	W 3-1	41.7	1123	1051	43.05%	20.41%	36.54%	+0.14	+12.6	9
2012-09-08	Llanelli	D 0-0	50.5	1330	1225	59.53%	19.31%	21.16%	+0.94	-2.0	10
2012-09-08	@ The New Saints	D 0-0	50.5	1225	1330	21.16%	19.31%	59.53%	-0.94	+2.0	5
2012-09-08	Port Talbot Town	L 0-5	37.2	1073	1055	49.01%	20.22%	30.76%	+0.41	-43.5	2
2012-09-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 5-0	37.2	1055	1073	30.76%	20.22%	49.01%	-0.41	+43.5	7
2012-09-12	The New Saints	W 1-0	47.6	1099	1328	18.86%	18.93%	62.21%	-1.09	+12.2	10
2012-09-12	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	47.6	1328	1099	62.21%	18.93%	18.86%	+1.09	-12.2	10
2012-09-15	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	50.7	1136	1029	59.64%	19.30%	21.06%	+0.94	-11.1	9
2012-09-15	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 2-1	50.7	1029	1136	21.06%	19.30%	59.64%	-0.94	+11.1	5
2012-09-15	Afan Lido	W 4-1	31.6	1246	1033	69.62%	17.42%	12.96%	+1.59	+6.9	13
2012-09-15	@ Bangor City	L 1-4	31.6	1033	1246	12.96%	17.42%	69.62%	-1.59	-6.9	7
2012-09-15	Airbus UK	D 4-4	64.2	1099	1103	46.02%	20.34%	33.64%	+0.27	-0.3	8
2012-09-15	@ Port Talbot Town	D 4-4	64.2	1103	1099	33.64%	20.34%	46.02%	-0.27	+0.3	7
2012-09-15	Newtown	L 0-3	43.5	1227	1038	67.63%	17.90%	14.47%	+1.45	-36.2	5
2012-09-15	@ Llanelli	W 3-0	43.5	1038	1227	14.47%	17.90%	67.63%	-1.45	+36.2	8
2012-09-15	Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	47.2	1113	1111	46.88%	20.31%	32.80%	+0.31	-9.0	2
2012-09-15	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	47.2	1111	1113	32.80%	20.31%	46.88%	-0.31	+8.9	13
2012-09-15	The New Saints	D 0-0	50.5	1011	1316	13.30%	17.53%	69.16%	-1.56	+3.0	8
2012-09-15	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	50.5	1316	1011	69.16%	17.53%	13.30%	+1.56	-3.0	11
2012-09-21	Llanelli	L 0-2	34.2	1040	1191	26.65%	19.94%	53.40%	-0.61	-11.2	5
2012-09-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	34.2	1191	1040	53.40%	19.94%	26.65%	+0.61	+11.2	8
2012-09-22	Afan Lido	W 6-4	45.3	1124	1026	58.73%	19.41%	21.86%	+0.89	+6.6	12
2012-09-22	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 4-6	45.3	1026	1124	21.86%	19.41%	58.73%	-0.89	-6.6	7
2012-09-22	Airbus UK	L 1-7	38.5	1074	1104	42.60%	20.42%	36.98%	+0.12	-37.8	8
2012-09-22	@ Newtown	W 7-1	38.5	1104	1074	36.98%	20.42%	42.60%	-0.12	+37.8	10
2012-09-22	Bangor City	W 3-0	32.2	1313	1253	54.36%	19.87%	25.77%	+0.66	+15.8	14
2012-09-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	32.2	1253	1313	25.77%	19.87%	54.36%	-0.66	-15.8	13
2012-09-22	Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	30.5	1104	1014	57.88%	19.52%	22.61%	+0.85	+14.0	5
2012-09-22	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	30.5	1014	1104	22.61%	19.52%	57.88%	-0.85	-14.0	8
2012-09-22	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.8	1120	1098	49.57%	20.19%	30.24%	+0.43	-0.9	14
2012-09-22	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.8	1098	1120	30.24%	20.19%	49.57%	-0.43	+0.9	9
2012-09-28	GAP Connah's Quay	W 4-1	38.9	1119	1131	45.06%	20.37%	34.57%	+0.23	+17.1	17
2012-09-28	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-4	38.9	1131	1119	34.57%	20.37%	45.06%	-0.23	-17.1	12
2012-09-29	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-1	32.7	1142	1029	60.29%	19.21%	20.50%	+0.98	+14.0	13
2012-09-29	@ Airbus UK	L 1-5	32.7	1029	1142	20.50%	19.21%	60.29%	-0.98	-14.0	5
2012-09-29	Bala Town	L 1-4	45.5	1202	1118	57.19%	19.59%	23.22%	+0.81	-26.1	8
2012-09-29	@ Llanelli	W 4-1	45.5	1118	1202	23.22%	19.59%	57.19%	-0.81	+26.1	8
2012-09-29	Bangor City	L 0-1	34.2	1000	1237	18.16%	18.79%	63.05%	-1.14	-4.2	8
2012-09-29	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	34.2	1237	1000	63.05%	18.79%	18.16%	+1.14	+4.2	16
2012-09-29	Newtown	L 2-3	51.0	1020	1036	44.40%	20.39%	35.22%	+0.20	-8.1	7
2012-09-29	@ Afan Lido	W 3-2	51.0	1036	1020	35.22%	20.39%	44.40%	-0.20	+8.1	11
2012-09-29	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	25.3	1329	1099	70.96%	17.06%	11.98%	+1.69	+12.2	17
2012-09-29	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	25.3	1099	1329	11.98%	17.06%	70.96%	-1.69	-12.2	9
2012-10-05	Afan Lido	W 4-2	44.7	1015	1012	47.13%	20.30%	32.57%	+0.32	+10.3	8
2012-10-05	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	44.7	1012	1015	32.57%	20.30%	47.13%	-0.32	-10.3	7
2012-10-05	Bala Town	W 5-0	28.9	1241	1144	58.68%	19.42%	21.90%	+0.89	+22.0	19
2012-10-05	@ Bangor City	L 0-5	28.9	1144	1241	21.90%	19.42%	58.68%	-0.89	-22.0	8
2012-10-05	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	39.6	1087	995	58.03%	19.50%	22.47%	+0.85	+4.8	12
2012-10-05	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	39.6	995	1087	22.47%	19.50%	58.03%	-0.85	-4.8	8
2012-10-06	Llanelli	D 1-1	52.9	1155	1176	43.87%	20.40%	35.73%	+0.18	-0.3	14
2012-10-06	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	52.9	1176	1155	35.73%	20.40%	43.87%	-0.18	+0.4	9
2012-10-06	Prestatyn Town	L 1-4	38.7	1045	1136	33.87%	20.35%	45.78%	-0.26	-16.8	11
2012-10-06	@ Newtown	W 4-1	38.7	1136	1045	45.78%	20.35%	33.87%	+0.26	+16.8	20
2012-10-06	The New Saints	L 1-3	36.3	1114	1341	19.05%	18.96%	61.98%	-1.08	-7.2	12
2012-10-06	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 3-1	36.3	1341	1114	61.98%	18.96%	19.05%	+1.08	+7.2	20
2012-10-13	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.7	1153	1025	61.88%	18.98%	19.14%	+1.07	-1.5	21
2012-10-13	@ Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.7	1025	1153	19.14%	18.98%	61.88%	-1.07	+1.5	9
2012-10-13	Airbus UK	L 1-5	34.7	1001	1155	26.29%	19.91%	53.79%	-0.63	-17.5	7
2012-10-13	@ Afan Lido	W 5-1	34.7	1155	1001	53.79%	19.91%	26.29%	+0.63	+17.5	17
2012-10-13	GAP Connah's Quay	L 2-4	44.1	991	1107	30.72%	20.22%	49.06%	-0.41	-9.8	8
2012-10-13	@ Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	44.1	1107	991	49.06%	20.22%	30.72%	+0.41	+9.8	15
2012-10-13	Llanelli	L 1-2	50.4	1263	1176	57.54%	19.55%	22.91%	+0.83	-10.7	19
2012-10-13	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	50.4	1176	1263	22.91%	19.55%	57.54%	-0.83	+10.7	12
2012-10-13	Newtown	L 0-1	50.9	1348	1028	77.23%	14.98%	7.79%	+2.24	-14.8	20
2012-10-13	@ The New Saints	W 1-0	50.9	1028	1348	7.79%	14.98%	77.23%	-2.24	+14.8	14
2012-10-14	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	35.0	1122	1092	50.66%	20.13%	29.20%	+0.48	+12.1	11
2012-10-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	35.0	1092	1122	29.20%	20.13%	50.66%	-0.48	-12.1	12
2012-10-19	Afan Lido	W 3-2	40.9	1187	984	68.82%	17.62%	13.56%	+1.53	+2.8	15
2012-10-19	@ Llanelli	L 2-3	40.9	984	1187	13.56%	17.62%	68.82%	-1.53	-2.8	7
2012-10-19	Bala Town	L 0-1	42.5	1117	1134	44.26%	20.39%	35.35%	+0.19	-9.0	15
2012-10-19	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 1-0	42.5	1134	1117	35.35%	20.39%	44.26%	-0.19	+9.0	14
2012-10-19	Prestatyn Town	W 5-0	31.6	1173	1152	49.46%	20.20%	30.34%	+0.43	+29.2	20
2012-10-19	@ Airbus UK	L 0-5	31.6	1152	1173	30.34%	20.20%	49.46%	-0.43	-29.3	21
2012-10-19	The New Saints	L 1-4	31.7	1027	1333	13.24%	17.51%	69.25%	-1.56	-7.1	9
2012-10-19	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	31.7	1333	1027	69.25%	17.51%	13.24%	+1.56	+7.1	23
2012-10-20	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.1	1080	1253	24.20%	19.70%	56.10%	-0.75	+1.5	13
2012-10-20	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.1	1253	1080	56.10%	19.70%	24.20%	+0.75	-1.5	20
2012-10-20	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	49.3	1043	981	54.58%	19.85%	25.58%	+0.67	-10.2	14
2012-10-20	@ Newtown	W 2-1	49.3	981	1043	25.58%	19.85%	54.58%	-0.67	+10.2	11
2012-10-26	Bangor City	L 2-6	37.9	1108	1251	27.43%	20.01%	52.56%	-0.57	-15.4	15
2012-10-26	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 6-2	37.9	1251	1108	52.56%	20.01%	27.43%	+0.57	+15.4	23
2012-10-26	The New Saints	W 2-1	49.2	1202	1340	28.02%	20.05%	51.93%	-0.54	+9.8	23
2012-10-26	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	49.2	1340	1202	51.93%	20.05%	28.02%	+0.54	-9.8	23
2012-10-27	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.8	1032	1143	31.40%	20.25%	48.34%	-0.37	+0.8	15
2012-10-27	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.8	1143	1032	48.34%	20.25%	31.40%	+0.37	-0.8	15
2012-10-27	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	37.9	1020	991	50.48%	20.14%	29.37%	+0.47	+6.5	12
2012-10-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.9	991	1020	29.37%	20.14%	50.48%	-0.47	-6.5	11
2012-10-27	Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	46.8	1190	1081	59.89%	19.27%	20.84%	+0.96	-11.8	15
2012-10-27	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	46.8	1081	1190	20.84%	19.27%	59.89%	-0.96	+11.8	16
2012-10-27	Prestatyn Town	L 2-4	43.1	981	1122	27.71%	20.03%	52.26%	-0.56	-9.0	7
2012-10-27	@ Afan Lido	W 4-2	43.1	1122	981	52.26%	20.03%	27.71%	+0.56	+9.0	24
2012-11-02	Newtown	W 3-0	26.5	1267	1033	71.27%	16.98%	11.76%	+1.72	+7.5	26
2012-11-02	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	26.5	1033	1267	11.76%	16.98%	71.27%	-1.72	-7.5	15
2012-11-03	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	43.3	1142	1026	60.69%	19.16%	20.16%	+1.00	+4.1	18
2012-11-03	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	43.3	1026	1142	20.16%	19.16%	60.69%	-1.00	-4.1	12
2012-11-03	Afan Lido	W 2-1	33.2	1331	972	79.45%	14.06%	6.49%	+2.47	+1.4	26
2012-11-03	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	33.2	972	1331	6.49%	14.06%	79.45%	-2.47	-1.4	7
2012-11-03	Airbus UK	W 2-1	51.3	985	1212	19.05%	18.96%	61.99%	-1.08	+11.5	14
2012-11-03	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	51.3	1212	985	61.99%	18.96%	19.05%	+1.08	-11.5	23
2012-11-03	GAP Connah's Quay	W 6-1	35.9	1093	1092	46.77%	20.32%	32.91%	+0.30	+25.9	19
2012-11-03	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-6	35.9	1092	1093	32.91%	20.32%	46.77%	-0.30	-25.9	15
2012-11-03	Llanelli	W 3-1	42.7	1131	1178	40.16%	20.44%	39.41%	+0.02	+13.4	27
2012-11-03	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-3	42.7	1178	1131	39.41%	20.44%	40.16%	-0.02	-13.4	15
2012-11-11	GAP Connah's Quay	L 1-6	43.4	1164	1066	58.77%	19.41%	21.82%	+0.90	-42.4	15
2012-11-11	@ Llanelli	W 6-1	43.4	1066	1164	21.82%	19.41%	58.77%	-0.90	+42.4	18
2012-11-16	Airbus UK	W 2-0	33.7	1274	1200	56.01%	19.71%	24.28%	+0.75	+10.3	29
2012-11-16	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	33.7	1200	1274	24.28%	19.71%	56.01%	-0.75	-10.3	23
2012-11-16	Newtown	W 2-1	39.9	1109	1026	57.06%	19.61%	23.34%	+0.80	+5.0	21
2012-11-16	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 1-2	39.9	1026	1109	23.34%	19.61%	57.06%	-0.80	-5.0	15
2012-11-17	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	52.2	1119	1022	58.59%	19.43%	21.97%	+0.89	-16.9	19
2012-11-17	@ Port Talbot Town	W 4-2	52.2	1022	1119	21.97%	19.43%	58.59%	-0.89	+16.9	15
2012-11-17	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.3	996	1145	26.85%	19.96%	53.19%	-0.60	+0.9	15
2012-11-17	@ Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	57.3	1145	996	53.19%	19.96%	26.85%	+0.60	-0.9	28
2012-11-17	The New Saints	L 0-6	29.1	1122	1332	20.57%	19.22%	60.20%	-0.98	-24.6	15
2012-11-17	@ Llanelli	W 6-0	29.1	1332	1122	60.20%	19.22%	20.57%	+0.98	+24.6	29
2012-11-18	Afan Lido	W 3-2	41.6	1147	971	66.47%	18.15%	15.38%	+1.37	+3.2	21
2012-11-18	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	41.6	971	1147	15.38%	18.15%	66.47%	-1.37	-3.2	7
2012-11-24	Bala Town	W 1-0	39.3	1144	1150	45.88%	20.35%	33.78%	+0.26	+7.2	31
2012-11-24	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	39.3	1150	1144	33.78%	20.35%	45.88%	-0.26	-7.3	21
2012-11-24	Bangor City	L 2-3	40.6	968	1284	12.62%	17.30%	70.08%	-1.62	-2.6	7
2012-11-24	@ Afan Lido	W 3-2	40.6	1284	968	70.08%	17.30%	12.62%	+1.62	+2.6	32
2012-11-24	Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	46.0	1357	997	79.52%	14.03%	6.45%	+2.48	-41.4	29
2012-11-24	@ The New Saints	W 3-0	46.0	997	1357	6.45%	14.03%	79.52%	-2.48	+41.4	18
2012-11-24	GAP Connah's Quay	W 3-0	37.0	1039	1114	36.21%	20.41%	43.38%	-0.15	+24.3	18
2012-11-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	37.0	1114	1039	43.38%	20.41%	36.21%	+0.15	-24.3	21
2012-11-24	Llanelli	D 1-1	52.8	1021	1097	35.89%	20.40%	43.71%	-0.17	+0.3	16
2012-11-24	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.8	1097	1021	43.71%	20.40%	35.89%	+0.17	-0.3	16
2012-11-24	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	29.2	1190	1102	57.62%	19.54%	22.84%	+0.83	+22.8	26
2012-11-24	@ Airbus UK	L 0-5	29.2	1102	1190	22.84%	19.54%	57.62%	-0.83	-22.8	19
2012-11-30	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.7	1097	1063	51.11%	20.10%	28.79%	+0.50	-1.1	17
2012-11-30	@ Llanelli	D 0-0	49.7	1063	1097	28.79%	20.10%	51.11%	-0.50	+1.1	19
2012-11-30	Newtown	W 2-1	36.7	1213	1021	67.87%	17.84%	14.29%	+1.46	+3.1	29
2012-11-30	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	36.7	1021	1213	14.29%	17.84%	67.87%	-1.46	-3.1	16
2012-12-01	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.8	1038	1142	32.26%	20.29%	47.45%	-0.33	+0.7	19
2012-12-01	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.8	1142	1038	47.45%	20.29%	32.26%	+0.33	-0.7	22
2012-12-01	GAP Connah's Quay	W 2-1	48.1	965	1089	29.74%	20.16%	50.09%	-0.46	+9.5	10
2012-12-01	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	48.1	1089	965	50.09%	20.16%	29.74%	+0.46	-9.5	21
2012-12-01	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	42.1	1079	1151	36.55%	20.41%	43.03%	-0.14	+8.8	22
2012-12-01	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	42.1	1151	1079	43.03%	20.41%	36.55%	+0.14	-8.8	31
2012-12-01	The New Saints	L 0-1	42.9	1287	1315	42.76%	20.42%	36.82%	+0.13	-8.8	32
2012-12-01	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	42.9	1315	1287	36.82%	20.42%	42.76%	-0.13	+8.8	32
2012-12-15	Afan Lido	L 1-2	48.7	1018	975	52.32%	20.02%	27.66%	+0.56	-9.8	16
2012-12-15	@ Newtown	W 2-1	48.7	975	1018	27.66%	20.02%	52.32%	-0.56	+9.8	13
2012-12-15	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	58.4	1278	1039	71.69%	16.85%	11.45%	+1.75	-2.2	33
2012-12-15	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	58.4	1039	1278	11.45%	16.85%	71.69%	-1.75	+2.2	20
2012-12-15	Llanelli	L 1-2	48.8	1142	1096	52.62%	20.00%	27.37%	+0.58	-9.9	22
2012-12-15	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	48.8	1096	1142	27.37%	20.00%	52.62%	-0.58	+9.9	20
2012-12-15	The New Saints	L 1-3	36.0	1088	1324	18.29%	18.82%	62.89%	-1.13	-6.9	22
2012-12-15	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	36.0	1324	1088	62.89%	18.82%	18.29%	+1.13	+6.9	35
2012-12-21	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.5	984	1065	35.44%	20.39%	44.17%	-0.19	+0.4	14
2012-12-21	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	49.5	1065	984	44.17%	20.39%	35.44%	+0.19	-0.4	20
2012-12-21	GAP Connah's Quay	W 5-1	29.2	1331	1080	72.58%	16.59%	10.83%	+1.82	+7.4	38
2012-12-21	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	29.2	1080	1331	10.83%	16.59%	72.58%	-1.82	-7.5	21
2012-12-21	Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	40.7	1041	1081	41.11%	20.43%	38.45%	+0.06	+8.1	23
2012-12-21	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	40.7	1081	1041	38.45%	20.43%	41.11%	-0.06	-8.1	22
2012-12-22	Newtown	L 2-5	50.4	1142	1008	62.55%	18.87%	18.58%	+1.11	-24.6	31
2012-12-22	@ Prestatyn Town	W 5-2	50.4	1008	1142	18.58%	18.87%	62.55%	-1.11	+24.6	19
2012-12-23	Airbus UK	L 2-4	44.5	1106	1216	31.53%	20.26%	48.22%	-0.37	-10.0	20
2012-12-23	@ Llanelli	W 4-2	44.5	1216	1106	48.22%	20.26%	31.53%	+0.37	+10.0	32
2012-12-26	Bala Town	W 1-0	32.6	1338	1132	69.11%	17.55%	13.34%	+1.55	+3.1	41
2012-12-26	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	32.6	1132	1338	13.34%	17.55%	69.11%	-1.55	-3.1	22
2012-12-26	GAP Connah's Quay	D 2-2	57.8	1226	1072	64.42%	18.55%	17.03%	+1.23	-1.7	33
2012-12-26	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	57.8	1072	1226	17.03%	18.55%	64.42%	-1.23	+1.7	22
2012-12-26	Llanelli	W 1-0	41.0	1049	1096	40.15%	20.44%	39.42%	+0.02	+8.2	26
2012-12-26	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	41.0	1096	1049	39.42%	20.44%	40.15%	-0.02	-8.2	20
2012-12-26	Newtown	L 0-2	41.4	1064	1033	50.82%	20.12%	29.06%	+0.49	-19.2	20
2012-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	41.4	1033	1064	29.06%	20.12%	50.82%	-0.49	+19.2	22
2012-12-26	Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	34.2	985	1073	34.35%	20.36%	45.29%	-0.24	-20.1	14
2012-12-26	@ Afan Lido	W 3-0	34.2	1073	985	45.29%	20.36%	34.35%	+0.24	+20.2	25
2012-12-28	Prestatyn Town	D 3-3	62.2	1276	1118	64.87%	18.47%	16.66%	+1.26	-1.4	34
2012-12-28	@ Bangor City	D 3-3	62.2	1118	1276	16.66%	18.47%	64.87%	-1.26	+1.4	32
2012-12-29	Afan Lido	W 6-1	31.3	1093	965	61.97%	18.97%	19.07%	+1.08	+16.0	28
2012-12-29	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-6	31.3	965	1093	19.07%	18.97%	61.97%	-1.08	-16.0	14
2012-12-29	Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	43.6	1088	1057	50.65%	20.13%	29.21%	+0.48	+9.4	23
2012-12-29	@ Llanelli	L 2-4	43.6	1057	1088	29.21%	20.13%	50.65%	-0.48	-9.4	26
2013-01-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	40.3	1052	1045	47.60%	20.28%	32.12%	+0.34	+11.4	25
2013-01-01	@ Newtown	L 1-3	40.3	1045	1052	32.12%	20.28%	47.60%	-0.34	-11.4	20
2013-01-01	Airbus UK	W 4-1	44.5	1074	1224	26.69%	19.95%	53.36%	-0.61	+24.5	25
2013-01-01	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 1-4	44.5	1224	1074	53.36%	19.95%	26.69%	+0.61	-24.6	33
2013-01-01	Bangor City	W 4-1	44.7	1119	1275	26.09%	19.89%	54.01%	-0.65	+24.8	35
2013-01-01	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-4	44.7	1275	1119	54.01%	19.89%	26.09%	+0.65	-24.8	34
2013-01-02	The New Saints	D 2-2	57.9	1129	1341	20.33%	19.18%	60.49%	-0.99	+1.4	23
2013-01-02	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	57.9	1341	1129	60.49%	19.18%	20.33%	+0.99	-1.4	42
2013-01-05	Bala Town	W 2-1	43.9	1109	1130	43.77%	20.40%	35.83%	+0.17	+7.2	31
2013-01-05	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	43.9	1130	1109	35.83%	20.40%	43.77%	-0.17	-7.2	23
2013-01-05	Bangor City	D 2-2	57.5	1097	1250	26.40%	19.92%	53.68%	-0.63	+0.9	24
2013-01-05	@ Llanelli	D 2-2	57.5	1250	1097	53.68%	19.92%	26.40%	+0.63	-0.9	35
2013-01-05	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.9	1099	1048	53.20%	19.96%	26.84%	+0.60	-1.2	26
2013-01-05	@ GAP Connah's Quay	D 1-1	52.9	1048	1099	26.84%	19.96%	53.20%	-0.60	+1.2	27
2013-01-05	Prestatyn Town	W 4-1	43.0	1034	1144	31.46%	20.26%	48.29%	-0.37	+22.5	23
2013-01-05	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-4	43.0	1144	1034	48.29%	20.26%	31.46%	+0.37	-22.5	35
2013-01-05	The New Saints	D 1-1	53.6	1063	1340	15.18%	18.10%	66.72%	-1.38	+2.5	26
2013-01-05	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.6	1340	1063	66.72%	18.10%	15.18%	+1.38	-2.5	43
2013-01-11	Bangor City	W 2-1	48.3	1123	1249	29.54%	20.15%	50.30%	-0.47	+9.5	26
2013-01-11	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	48.3	1249	1123	50.30%	20.15%	29.54%	+0.47	-9.5	35
2013-01-11	Prestatyn Town	D 3-3	61.4	1097	1121	43.34%	20.41%	36.25%	+0.15	-0.2	27
2013-01-11	@ GAP Connah's Quay	D 3-3	61.4	1121	1097	36.25%	20.41%	43.34%	-0.15	+0.2	36
2013-01-12	Airbus UK	W 1-0	44.9	1056	1200	27.44%	20.01%	52.55%	-0.57	+10.5	26
2013-01-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	44.9	1200	1056	52.55%	20.01%	27.44%	+0.57	-10.5	33
2013-01-19	Airbus UK	L 1-6	37.3	1122	1189	37.19%	20.42%	42.38%	-0.11	-28.7	36
2013-01-19	@ Prestatyn Town	W 6-1	37.3	1189	1122	42.38%	20.42%	37.19%	+0.11	+28.7	36
2013-01-19	Llanelli	L 0-1	37.0	949	1098	26.78%	19.95%	53.27%	-0.61	-6.0	14
2013-01-19	@ Afan Lido	W 1-0	37.0	1098	949	53.27%	19.95%	26.78%	+0.61	+6.0	27
2013-02-02	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	25.8	1338	1067	74.01%	16.14%	9.86%	+1.94	+6.2	46
2013-02-02	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	25.8	1067	1338	9.86%	16.14%	74.01%	-1.94	-6.2	26
2013-02-02	Afan Lido	W 3-1	32.3	1218	943	74.28%	16.05%	9.67%	+1.97	+3.6	39
2013-02-02	@ Airbus UK	L 1-3	32.3	943	1218	9.67%	16.05%	74.28%	-1.97	-3.6	14
2013-02-02	GAP Connah's Quay	L 3-6	49.4	1133	1097	51.32%	20.09%	28.59%	+0.51	-19.0	26
2013-02-02	@ Bala Town	W 6-3	49.4	1097	1133	28.59%	20.09%	51.32%	-0.51	+19.0	30
2013-02-02	Newtown	W 4-2	45.5	1049	1066	44.43%	20.38%	35.18%	+0.20	+11.0	30
2013-02-02	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-4	45.5	1066	1049	35.18%	20.38%	44.43%	-0.20	-11.0	26
2013-02-02	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	57.7	1239	1116	61.40%	19.05%	19.54%	+1.05	-1.5	36
2013-02-02	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	57.7	1116	1239	19.54%	19.05%	61.40%	-1.05	+1.5	32

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2013-02-08	Newtown	W 3-1	38.4	1114	1055	54.23%	19.88%	25.90%	+0.66	+9.5	3
2013-02-08	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	38.4	1055	1114	25.90%	19.88%	54.23%	-0.66	-9.5	0
2013-02-09	Afan Lido	L 0-2	45.3	1104	939	65.49%	18.35%	16.16%	+1.30	-24.2	0
2013-02-09	@ Llanelli	W 2-0	45.3	939	1104	16.16%	18.35%	65.49%	-1.30	+24.2	3
2013-02-09	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	25.5	1344	1118	70.68%	17.14%	12.18%	+1.67	+12.4	3
2013-02-09	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	25.5	1118	1344	12.18%	17.14%	70.68%	-1.67	-12.4	0
2013-02-09	Prestatyn Town	D 3-3	62.0	1238	1093	63.59%	18.70%	17.71%	+1.18	-1.3	1
2013-02-09	@ Bangor City	D 3-3	62.0	1093	1238	17.71%	18.70%	63.59%	-1.18	+1.3	1
2013-02-15	Airbus UK	L 0-4	31.5	1094	1221	29.40%	20.14%	50.46%	-0.47	-23.1	1
2013-02-15	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	31.5	1221	1094	50.46%	20.14%	29.40%	+0.47	+23.1	3
2013-02-15	Bala Town	L 1-3	42.1	1060	1123	37.86%	20.43%	41.71%	-0.08	-13.0	0
2013-02-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	42.1	1123	1060	41.71%	20.43%	37.86%	+0.08	+13.0	6
2013-02-16	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.0	1105	1237	28.90%	20.11%	50.99%	-0.50	+1.0	1
2013-02-16	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.0	1237	1105	50.99%	20.11%	28.90%	+0.50	-1.0	2
2013-02-16	Llanelli	L 1-2	45.7	1045	1080	41.87%	20.43%	37.70%	+0.09	-8.1	0
2013-02-16	@ Newtown	W 2-1	45.7	1080	1045	37.70%	20.43%	41.87%	-0.09	+8.1	3
2013-02-23	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.6	1037	1047	45.27%	20.36%	34.36%	+0.24	-0.5	1
2013-02-23	@ Newtown	D 0-0	49.6	1047	1037	34.36%	20.36%	45.27%	-0.24	+0.5	1
2013-02-23	Bala Town	L 0-2	33.3	963	1136	24.22%	19.71%	56.07%	-0.75	-10.3	3
2013-02-23	@ Afan Lido	W 2-0	33.3	1136	963	56.07%	19.71%	24.22%	+0.75	+10.3	9
2013-02-23	Bangor City	L 0-1	36.2	1060	1236	23.96%	19.68%	56.36%	-0.77	-5.4	0
2013-02-23	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	36.2	1236	1060	56.36%	19.68%	23.96%	+0.77	+5.4	5
2013-02-23	GAP Connah's Quay	L 0-1	42.0	1088	1116	42.76%	20.42%	36.82%	+0.13	-8.8	3
2013-02-23	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	42.0	1116	1088	36.82%	20.42%	42.76%	-0.13	+8.8	3
2013-02-23	Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	41.7	1071	1106	41.79%	20.43%	37.78%	+0.09	-8.6	1
2013-02-23	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	41.7	1106	1071	37.78%	20.43%	41.79%	-0.09	+8.6	4
2013-02-23	The New Saints	L 1-2	43.4	1245	1356	31.29%	20.25%	48.46%	-0.38	-6.4	3
2013-02-23	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	43.4	1356	1245	48.46%	20.25%	31.29%	+0.38	+6.4	6
2013-03-02	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.0	1125	1048	56.38%	19.68%	23.94%	+0.77	-1.5	4
2013-03-02	@ GAP Connah's Quay	D 1-1	53.0	1048	1125	23.94%	19.68%	56.38%	-0.77	+1.5	2
2013-03-08	Airbus UK	W 2-0	36.4	1241	1238	47.06%	20.31%	32.64%	+0.32	+13.3	8
2013-03-08	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	36.4	1238	1241	32.64%	20.31%	47.06%	-0.32	-13.3	3
2013-03-08	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	36.7	1115	1055	54.38%	19.86%	25.76%	+0.66	+5.8	7
2013-03-08	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	36.7	1055	1115	25.76%	19.86%	54.38%	-0.66	-5.8	0
2013-03-08	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	25.3	1363	1063	75.94%	15.46%	8.59%	+2.12	+5.4	9
2013-03-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	25.3	1063	1363	8.59%	15.46%	75.94%	-2.12	-5.4	1
2013-03-09	Afan Lido	W 4-3	47.5	1049	953	58.56%	19.43%	22.00%	+0.88	+4.4	5
2013-03-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 3-4	47.5	953	1049	22.00%	19.43%	58.56%	-0.88	-4.4	3
2013-03-09	GAP Connah's Quay	W 1-0	42.7	1037	1123	34.53%	20.37%	45.11%	-0.23	+9.2	4
2013-03-09	@ Newtown	L 0-1	42.7	1123	1037	45.11%	20.37%	34.53%	+0.23	-9.2	4
2013-03-10	Llanelli	W 4-0	30.0	1146	1079	55.22%	19.79%	24.99%	+0.71	+20.1	12
2013-03-10	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	30.0	1079	1146	24.99%	19.79%	55.22%	-0.71	-20.1	3
2013-03-15	Bala Town	L 0-5	34.4	1114	1166	39.36%	20.44%	40.20%	-0.02	-36.2	4
2013-03-15	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 5-0	34.4	1166	1114	40.20%	20.44%	39.36%	+0.02	+36.2	15
2013-03-16	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-3	50.8	1059	1054	47.39%	20.29%	32.32%	+0.33	+6.1	6
2013-03-16	@ Llanelli	L 3-4	50.8	1054	1059	32.32%	20.29%	47.39%	-0.33	-6.1	5
2013-03-16	Bangor City	W 6-0	29.8	1368	1254	60.44%	19.19%	20.37%	+0.99	+24.4	12
2013-03-16	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	29.8	1254	1368	20.37%	19.19%	60.44%	-0.99	-24.4	8
2013-03-16	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	32.5	1225	1121	59.40%	19.33%	21.27%	+0.93	+9.2	6
2013-03-16	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	32.5	1121	1225	21.27%	19.33%	59.40%	-0.93	-9.2	7
2013-03-16	Prestatyn Town	W 3-2	47.9	1049	1057	45.56%	20.36%	34.09%	+0.25	+6.5	3
2013-03-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	47.9	1057	1049	34.09%	20.36%	45.56%	-0.25	-6.5	1
2013-03-23	Llanelli	L 1-3	39.9	949	1065	30.68%	20.22%	49.10%	-0.41	-10.9	3
2013-03-23	@ Afan Lido	W 3-1	39.9	1065	949	49.10%	20.22%	30.68%	+0.41	+10.9	9
2013-03-24	The New Saints	L 0-3	28.2	1112	1392	14.91%	18.02%	67.07%	-1.41	-9.5	7
2013-03-24	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	28.2	1392	1112	67.07%	18.02%	14.91%	+1.41	+9.5	15
2013-03-29	Prestatyn Town	W 4-1	32.3	1234	1051	67.14%	18.01%	14.86%	+1.41	+8.0	9
2013-03-29	@ Airbus UK	L 1-4	32.3	1051	1234	14.86%	18.01%	67.14%	-1.41	-8.0	1
2013-03-30	Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	24.5	1402	1056	78.76%	14.36%	6.89%	+2.40	+4.2	18
2013-03-30	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	24.5	1056	1402	6.89%	14.36%	78.76%	-2.40	-4.2	3
2013-03-30	Newtown	L 0-1	44.3	1076	1046	50.68%	20.13%	29.19%	+0.48	-10.1	9
2013-03-30	@ Llanelli	W 1-0	44.3	1046	1076	29.19%	20.13%	50.68%	-0.48	+10.1	7
2013-03-30	Port Talbot Town	D 3-3	61.9	1230	1102	61.89%	18.98%	19.14%	+1.07	-1.2	9
2013-03-30	@ Bangor City	D 3-3	61.9	1102	1230	19.14%	18.98%	61.89%	-1.07	+1.2	8
2013-04-01	Newtown	W 2-1	47.8	938	1056	30.48%	20.21%	49.32%	-0.42	+9.3	6
2013-04-01	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	47.8	1056	938	49.32%	20.21%	30.48%	+0.42	-9.3	7
2013-04-06	Airbus UK	W 1-0	46.4	1051	1242	22.42%	19.49%	58.09%	-0.86	+11.5	6
2013-04-06	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	46.4	1242	1051	58.09%	19.49%	22.42%	+0.86	-11.5	9
2013-04-06	GAP Connah's Quay	W 2-1	48.3	947	1078	28.91%	20.11%	50.97%	-0.50	+9.6	9
2013-04-06	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	48.3	1078	947	50.97%	20.11%	28.91%	+0.50	-9.6	4
2013-04-06	Llanelli	W 2-1	43.7	1048	1066	44.15%	20.39%	35.46%	+0.19	+7.1	8
2013-04-06	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	43.7	1066	1048	35.46%	20.39%	44.15%	-0.19	-7.1	9
2013-04-09	Bangor City	L 0-1	35.8	1043	1229	22.88%	19.55%	57.57%	-0.83	-5.2	1
2013-04-09	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	35.8	1229	1043	57.57%	19.55%	22.88%	+0.83	+5.2	12
2013-04-09	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	30.5	1230	1063	65.73%	18.30%	15.97%	+1.32	+7.0	12
2013-04-09	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	30.5	1063	1230	15.97%	18.30%	65.73%	-1.32	-7.0	6
2013-04-09	GAP Connah's Quay	D 1-1	52.8	1055	1068	44.79%	20.38%	34.83%	+0.22	-0.4	9
2013-04-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.8	1068	1055	34.83%	20.38%	44.79%	-0.22	+0.4	5
2013-04-12	Airbus UK	W 4-2	40.3	1406	1237	65.84%	18.28%	15.88%	+1.32	+5.4	21
2013-04-12	@ The New Saints	L 2-4	40.3	1237	1406	15.88%	18.28%	65.84%	-1.32	-5.4	12
2013-04-13	Afan Lido	W 4-0	24.9	1203	957	72.20%	16.70%	11.09%	+1.79	+9.2	18
2013-04-13	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	24.9	957	1203	11.09%	16.70%	72.20%	-1.79	-9.2	9
2013-04-13	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	30.2	1234	1056	66.66%	18.11%	15.23%	+1.38	+6.7	15
2013-04-13	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	30.2	1056	1234	15.23%	18.11%	66.66%	-1.38	-6.7	6
2013-04-13	Llanelli	W 4-2	44.4	1069	1059	48.02%	20.27%	31.72%	+0.36	+10.1	8
2013-04-13	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 2-4	44.4	1059	1069	31.72%	20.27%	48.02%	-0.36	-10.1	9
2013-04-13	Newtown	D 0-0	49.6	1054	1047	47.71%	20.28%	32.01%	+0.35	-0.8	10
2013-04-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.6	1047	1054	32.01%	20.28%	47.71%	-0.35	+0.8	8
2013-04-13	Prestatyn Town	W 4-1	35.9	1103	1038	55.05%	19.80%	25.14%	+0.70	+13.0	11
2013-04-13	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-4	35.9	1038	1103	25.14%	19.80%	55.05%	-0.70	-13.0	1
2013-04-16	Afan Lido	W 3-0	29.1	1079	947	62.27%	18.92%	18.81%	+1.10	+11.8	11
2013-04-16	@ GAP Connah's Quay	L 0-3	29.1	947	1079	18.81%	18.92%	62.27%	-1.10	-11.9	9
2013-04-16	Bala Town	L 0-1	36.6	1047	1212	25.11%	19.80%	55.09%	-0.70	-5.6	8
2013-04-16	@ Newtown	W 1-0	36.6	1212	1047	55.09%	19.80%	25.11%	+0.70	+5.6	21
2013-04-16	The New Saints	L 0-1	31.3	1049	1411	10.20%	16.30%	73.50%	-1.90	-2.3	6
2013-04-16	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	31.3	1411	1049	73.50%	16.30%	10.20%	+1.90	+2.3	24
2013-04-19	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.6	936	1054	30.52%	20.21%	49.27%	-0.42	+0.9	10
2013-04-19	@ Afan Lido	D 0-0	49.6	1054	936	49.27%	20.21%	30.52%	+0.42	-0.9	11
2013-04-20	Bala Town	L 1-5	34.2	1049	1217	24.66%	19.75%	55.58%	-0.73	-16.5	9
2013-04-20	@ Llanelli	W 5-1	34.2	1217	1049	55.58%	19.75%	24.66%	+0.73	+16.5	24
2013-04-20	Bangor City	W 2-0	36.9	1232	1240	45.52%	20.36%	34.12%	+0.25	+13.8	15
2013-04-20	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	36.9	1240	1232	34.12%	20.36%	45.52%	-0.25	-13.8	15
2013-04-20	Newtown	L 0-2	42.1	1091	1042	53.03%	19.97%	26.99%	+0.60	-19.9	11
2013-04-20	@ GAP Connah's Quay	W 2-0	42.1	1042	1091	26.99%	19.97%	53.03%	-0.60	+19.9	11
2013-04-20	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	49.6	1047	1116	36.91%	20.42%	42.67%	-0.12	+0.3	7
2013-04-20	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	49.6	1116	1047	42.67%	20.42%	36.91%	+0.12	-0.3	12
2013-04-20	The New Saints	L 1-7	27.2	1025	1414	8.97%	15.68%	75.35%	-2.06	-8.9	1
2013-04-20	@ Prestatyn Town	W 7-1	27.2	1414	1025	75.35%	15.68%	8.97%	+2.06	+8.9	27
2013-04-23	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	33.0	1234	1053	66.97%	18.04%	14.99%	+1.40	+3.5	27
2013-04-23	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	33.0	1053	1234	14.99%	18.04%	66.97%	-1.40	-3.5	11
2013-04-27	Afan Lido	L 0-1	47.2	1062	937	61.61%	19.02%	19.36%	+1.06	-12.1	11
2013-04-27	@ Newtown	W 1-0	47.2	937	1062	19.36%	19.02%	61.61%	-1.06	+12.1	13
2013-04-27	Airbus UK	W 1-0	44.5	1116	1246	29.08%	20.12%	50.80%	-0.49	+10.2	15
2013-04-27	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	44.5	1246	1116	50.80%	20.12%	29.08%	+0.49	-10.2	15
2013-04-27	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	44.3	1016	1047	42.31%	20.42%	37.27%	+0.11	+7.4	4
2013-04-27	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	44.3	1047	1016	37.27%	20.42%	42.31%	-0.11	-7.4	7
2013-04-27	GAP Connah's Quay	W 1-0	33.4	1237	1071	65.64%	18.32%	16.04%	+1.31	+3.7	30
2013-04-27	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	33.4	1071	1237	16.04%	18.32%	65.64%	-1.31	-3.7	11
2013-04-27	The New Saints	L 1-4	36.1	1227	1423	21.88%	19.42%	58.70%	-0.89	-11.5	15
2013-04-27	@ Bangor City	W 4-1	36.1	1423	1227	58.70%	19.42%	21.88%	+0.89	+11.5	30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2012-11-24	6.45%	Carmarthen Town	997	3	@ The New Saints	1357	0
2	2012-10-13	7.79%	Newtown	1028	1	@ The New Saints	1348	0
3	2012-09-15	14.47%	Newtown	1038	3	@ Llanelli	1227	0
4	2013-02-09	16.16%	Afan Lido	939	2	@ Llanelli	1104	0
5	2012-12-22	18.58%	Newtown	1008	5	@ Prestatyn Town	1142	2
6	2012-09-12	18.86%	@ Prestatyn Town	1099	1	The New Saints	1328	0
7	2012-11-03	19.05%	@ Carmarthen Town	985	2	Airbus UK	1212	1
8	2013-04-27	19.36%	Afan Lido	937	1	@ Newtown	1062	0
9	2012-10-27	20.84%	Port Talbot Town	1081	1	@ Llanelli	1190	0
10	2012-09-15	21.06%	Aberystwyth Town	1029	2	@ GAP Connah's Quay	1136	1
11	2012-11-11	21.82%	GAP Connah's Quay	1066	6	@ Llanelli	1164	1
12	2012-11-17	21.97%	Aberystwyth Town	1022	4	@ Port Talbot Town	1119	2
13	2013-04-06	22.42%	@ Carmarthen Town	1051	1	Airbus UK	1242	0
14	2012-10-13	22.91%	Llanelli	1176	2	@ Bangor City	1263	1
15	2012-08-25	22.95%	@ Newtown	1048	3	Bangor City	1234	2
16	2012-09-29	23.22%	Bala Town	1118	4	@ Llanelli	1202	1
17	2012-10-20	25.58%	Carmarthen Town	981	2	@ Newtown	1043	1
18	2013-01-01	26.09%	@ Prestatyn Town	1119	4	Bangor City	1275	1
19	2012-08-25	26.44%	Carmarthen Town	1036	2	@ Airbus UK	1090	1
20	2012-09-04	26.51%	Airbus UK	1089	2	@ Bala Town	1142	0
21	2013-01-01	26.69%	@ GAP Connah's Quay	1074	4	Airbus UK	1224	1
22	2013-04-20	26.99%	Newtown	1042	2	@ GAP Connah's Quay	1091	0
23	2012-12-15	27.37%	Llanelli	1096	2	@ Bala Town	1142	1
24	2013-01-12	27.44%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1056	1	Airbus UK	1200	0
25	2012-12-15	27.66%	Afan Lido	975	2	@ Newtown	1018	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-09-08	43.47	Port Talbot Town	5	1055	30.76%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1073	49.01%	20.22%
2	2012-11-11	42.38	GAP Connah's Quay	6	1066	21.82%	@ Llanelli	1	1164	58.77%	19.41%
3	2012-11-24	41.44	Carmarthen Town	3	997	6.45%	@ The New Saints	0	1357	79.52%	14.03%
4	2012-09-22	37.83	Airbus UK	7	1104	36.98%	@ Newtown	1	1074	42.60%	20.42%
5	2013-03-15	36.23	Bala Town	5	1166	40.20%	@ GAP Connah's Quay	0	1114	39.36%	20.44%
6	2012-09-15	36.19	Newtown	3	1038	14.47%	@ Llanelli	0	1227	67.63%	17.90%
7	2012-10-19	29.26	@ Airbus UK	5	1173	49.46%	Prestatyn Town	0	1152	30.34%	20.20%
8	2013-01-19	28.67	Airbus UK	6	1189	42.38%	@ Prestatyn Town	1	1122	37.19%	20.42%
9	2012-09-08	27.44	@ Prestatyn Town	7	1072	51.07%	Carmarthen Town	1	1038	28.82%	20.11%
10	2012-09-29	26.13	Bala Town	4	1118	23.22%	@ Llanelli	1	1202	57.19%	19.59%
11	2012-11-03	25.94	@ Port Talbot Town	6	1093	46.77%	GAP Connah's Quay	1	1092	32.91%	20.32%
12	2013-01-01	24.82	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1119	26.09%	Bangor City	1	1275	54.01%	19.89%
13	2012-11-17	24.63	The New Saints	6	1332	60.20%	@ Llanelli	0	1122	20.57%	19.22%
14	2012-12-22	24.60	Newtown	5	1008	18.58%	@ Prestatyn Town	2	1142	62.55%	18.87%
15	2013-01-01	24.55	@ GAP Connah's Quay	4	1074	26.69%	Airbus UK	1	1224	53.36%	19.95%
16	2013-03-16	24.42	@ The New Saints	6	1368	60.44%	Bangor City	0	1254	20.37%	19.19%
17	2012-11-24	24.34	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1039	36.21%	GAP Connah's Quay	0	1114	43.38%	20.41%
18	2013-02-09	24.20	Afan Lido	2	939	16.16%	@ Llanelli	0	1104	65.49%	18.35%
19	2013-02-15	23.11	Airbus UK	4	1221	50.46%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1094	29.40%	20.14%
20	2012-11-24	22.82	@ Airbus UK	5	1190	57.62%	Port Talbot Town	0	1102	22.84%	19.54%
21	2013-01-05	22.48	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1034	31.46%	Prestatyn Town	1	1144	48.29%	20.26%
22	2012-10-05	21.97	@ Bangor City	5	1241	58.68%	Bala Town	0	1144	21.90%	19.42%
23	2012-12-26	20.15	Port Talbot Town	3	1073	45.29%	@ Afan Lido	0	985	34.35%	20.36%
24	2012-09-04	20.11	Airbus UK	2	1089	26.51%	@ Bala Town	0	1142	53.55%	19.93%
25	2013-03-10	20.07	@ Bala Town	4	1146	55.22%	Llanelli	0	1079	24.99%	19.79%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-08-17	64.5	@ Bala Town	4	1152	59.47%	Newtown	4	1048	21.21%	19.32%
2	2012-09-15	64.2	@ Port Talbot Town	4	1099	46.02%	Airbus UK	4	1103	33.64%	20.34%
3	2012-12-28	62.2	@ Bangor City	3	1276	64.87%	Prestatyn Town	3	1118	16.66%	18.47%
4	2013-02-09	62.0	@ Bangor City	3	1238	63.59%	Prestatyn Town	3	1093	17.71%	18.70%
5	2013-03-30	61.9	@ Bangor City	3	1230	61.89%	Port Talbot Town	3	1102	19.14%	18.98%
6	2013-01-11	61.4	@ GAP Connah's Quay	3	1097	43.34%	Prestatyn Town	3	1121	36.25%	20.41%
7	2012-12-15	58.4	@ Bangor City	2	1278	71.69%	Carmarthen Town	2	1039	11.45%	16.85%
8	2012-08-25	57.9	@ Llanelli	2	1244	65.77%	Prestatyn Town	2	1076	15.94%	18.29%
9	2013-01-02	57.9	@ Bala Town	2	1129	20.33%	The New Saints	2	1341	60.49%	19.18%
10	2012-12-26	57.8	@ Airbus UK	2	1226	64.42%	GAP Connah's Quay	2	1072	17.03%	18.55%
11	2012-10-13	57.7	@ Prestatyn Town	2	1153	61.88%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1025	19.14%	18.98%
12	2013-02-02	57.7	@ Bangor City	2	1239	61.40%	Port Talbot Town	2	1116	19.54%	19.05%
13	2013-01-05	57.5	@ Llanelli	2	1097	26.40%	Bangor City	2	1250	53.68%	19.92%
14	2012-11-17	57.3	@ Carmarthen Town	2	996	26.85%	Prestatyn Town	2	1145	53.19%	19.96%
15	2012-08-25	54.7	@ Newtown	3	1048	22.95%	Bangor City	2	1234	57.49%	19.56%
16	2013-01-05	53.6	@ Newtown	1	1063	15.18%	The New Saints	1	1340	66.72%	18.10%
17	2012-10-20	53.1	@ Port Talbot Town	1	1080	24.20%	Bangor City	1	1253	56.10%	19.70%
18	2013-02-16	53.0	@ Port Talbot Town	1	1105	28.90%	Bangor City	1	1237	50.99%	20.11%
19	2013-03-02	53.0	@ GAP Connah's Quay	1	1125	56.38%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1048	23.94%	19.68%
20	2012-10-06	52.9	@ Airbus UK	1	1155	43.87%	Llanelli	1	1176	35.73%	20.40%
21	2013-01-05	52.9	@ GAP Connah's Quay	1	1099	53.20%	Carmarthen Town	1	1048	26.84%	19.96%
22	2012-08-24	52.8	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1089	37.98%	Bala Town	1	1151	41.59%	20.43%
23	2012-08-31	52.8	@ Carmarthen Town	1	1046	50.72%	Afan Lido	1	1016	29.15%	20.13%
24	2012-09-04	52.8	@ Newtown	1	1051	46.22%	Port Talbot Town	1	1055	33.44%	20.33%
25	2012-09-22	52.8	@ Prestatyn Town	1	1120	49.57%	Port Talbot Town	1	1098	30.24%	20.19%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-03-30	24.5	@ The New Saints	3	1402	78.76%	Carmarthen Town	0	1056	6.89%	14.36%
2	2013-04-13	24.9	@ Bala Town	4	1203	72.20%	Afan Lido	0	957	11.09%	16.70%
3	2012-09-29	25.3	@ The New Saints	5	1329	70.96%	Port Talbot Town	0	1099	11.98%	17.06%
4	2013-03-08	25.3	@ The New Saints	3	1363	75.94%	Prestatyn Town	0	1063	8.59%	15.46%
5	2013-02-09	25.5	@ The New Saints	5	1344	70.68%	Port Talbot Town	0	1118	12.18%	17.14%
6	2013-02-02	25.8	@ The New Saints	3	1338	74.01%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1067	9.86%	16.14%
7	2012-11-02	26.5	@ Bangor City	3	1267	71.27%	Newtown	0	1033	11.76%	16.98%
8	2013-04-20	27.2	The New Saints	7	1414	75.35%	@ Prestatyn Town	1	1025	8.97%	15.68%
9	2013-03-24	28.2	The New Saints	3	1392	67.07%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1112	14.91%	18.02%
10	2012-10-05	28.9	@ Bangor City	5	1241	58.68%	Bala Town	0	1144	21.90%	19.42%
11	2012-11-17	29.1	The New Saints	6	1332	60.20%	@ Llanelli	0	1122	20.57%	19.22%
12	2013-04-16	29.1	@ GAP Connah's Quay	3	1079	62.27%	Afan Lido	0	947	18.81%	18.92%
13	2012-11-24	29.2	@ Airbus UK	5	1190	57.62%	Port Talbot Town	0	1102	22.84%	19.54%
14	2012-12-21	29.2	@ The New Saints	5	1331	72.58%	GAP Connah's Quay	1	1080	10.83%	16.59%
15	2013-03-16	29.8	@ The New Saints	6	1368	60.44%	Bangor City	0	1254	20.37%	19.19%
16	2013-03-10	30.0	@ Bala Town	4	1146	55.22%	Llanelli	0	1079	24.99%	19.79%
17	2013-04-13	30.2	@ Bangor City	2	1234	66.66%	Carmarthen Town	0	1056	15.23%	18.11%
18	2012-09-22	30.5	@ Bala Town	3	1104	57.88%	Carmarthen Town	0	1014	22.61%	19.52%
19	2013-04-09	30.5	@ Airbus UK	2	1230	65.73%	Carmarthen Town	0	1063	15.97%	18.30%
20	2012-08-31	30.9	@ The New Saints	4	1324	72.28%	Prestatyn Town	1	1077	11.04%	16.68%
21	2012-09-01	30.9	@ Bangor City	7	1224	62.51%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1090	18.61%	18.88%
22	2012-12-29	31.3	@ Port Talbot Town	6	1093	61.97%	Afan Lido	1	965	19.07%	18.97%
23	2013-04-16	31.3	The New Saints	1	1411	73.50%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1049	10.20%	16.30%
24	2013-02-15	31.5	Airbus UK	4	1221	50.46%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	1094	29.40%	20.14%
25	2012-09-15	31.6	@ Bangor City	4	1246	69.62%	Afan Lido	1	1033	12.96%	17.42%