2013-14 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

73 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Aberystwyth Town

7.65 points above expected

54 points · 46.35 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Afan Lido

7.17 points below expected

15 points · 22.17 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	15	5	2	50	58	12	+46	49.25	+0.75
2	Airbus UK	22	13	6	3	45	43	22	+21	39.78	+5.22
3	Carmarthen Town	22	9	6	7	33	36	34	+2	29.30	+3.70
4	Bangor City	22	9	5	8	32	33	28	+5	34.28	-2.28
5	Aberystwyth Town	22	8	8	6	32	41	37	+4	25.09	+6.91
6	Newtown	22	9	5	8	32	34	39	-5	25.07	+6.93
7	Rhyl	22	9	4	9	31	32	31	+1	33.23	-2.23
8	Bala Town	22	7	5	10	26	35	32	+3	32.13	-6.13
9	Prestatyn Town	22	6	6	10	24	27	30	-3	26.06	-2.06
10	Port Talbot Town	22	6	6	10	24	25	34	-9	26.69	-2.69
11	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	5	5	12	20	25	56	-31	24.83	-4.83
12	Afan Lido	22	3	5	14	14	17	51	-34	17.15	-3.15

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	22	7	3	73	86	20	+66	71.88	+1.12
2	Airbus UK	32	17	9	6	60	56	34	+22	60.14	-0.14
3	Carmarthen Town	32	14	6	12	48	54	51	+3	42.53	+5.47
4	Bangor City	32	14	6	12	48	47	50	-3	45.29	+2.71
5	Newtown	32	12	6	14	42	46	58	-12	42.34	-0.34
6	Rhyl	32	11	5	16	38	43	49	-6	43.38	-5.38

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Aberystwyth Town	32	15	9	8	54	72	48	+24	46.35	+7.65
2	Bala Town	32	13	6	13	45	61	45	+16	44.87	+0.13
3	Port Talbot Town	32	10	8	14	38	45	53	-8	39.44	-1.44
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	10	8	14	38	47	65	-18	33.46	+4.54
5	Prestatyn Town	32	9	8	15	35	42	47	-5	34.22	+0.78
6	Afan Lido	32	3	6	23	15	21	100	-79	22.17	-7.17

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aberystwyth Town	54	46.35	+7.65
2	Carmarthen Town	48	42.53	+5.47
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	38	33.46	+4.54
4	Bangor City	48	45.29	+2.71
5	The New Saints	73	71.88	+1.12

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Afan Lido	15	22.17	-7.17
2	Rhyl	38	43.38	-5.38
3	Port Talbot Town	38	39.44	-1.44
4	Newtown	42	42.34	-0.34
5	Airbus UK	60	60.14	-0.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carmarthen Town	5	Mar 29 – Apr 29	1 in 1,312
2	Prestatyn Town	3	Aug 23 – Aug 30	1 in 114
3	Bala Town	6	Jan 4 – Mar 22	1 in 58
4	Newtown	3	Oct 26 – Nov 8	1 in 26
5	Aberystwyth Town	4	Jan 25 – Mar 14	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	8	Oct 19 – Dec 13	1 in 453
2	Rhyl	6	Mar 21 – Apr 26	1 in 98
3	Bala Town	4	Aug 23 – Sep 7	1 in 51
4	Afan Lido	8	Jan 12 – Mar 28	1 in 50
5	Carmarthen Town	6	Jan 25 – Mar 22	1 in 47

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	6	Mar 22 – Apr 26	1 in 98
2	Airbus UK	11	Aug 24 – Nov 2	1 in 30
3	Port Talbot Town	6	Nov 30 – Jan 12	1 in 21
4	Carmarthen Town	6	Oct 5 – Nov 16	1 in 18
5	Newtown	5	Oct 18 – Nov 16	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	13	Oct 19 – Feb 18	1 in 77
2	Airbus UK	5	Mar 25 – Apr 26	1 in 52
3	Rhyl	8	Mar 8 – Apr 26	1 in 29
4	The New Saints	3	Jan 14 – Feb 22	1 in 18
5	Afan Lido	16	Dec 14 – Apr 26	1 in 16

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1448	73	+14	10	11.3	-1.3
Airbus UK	1249	60	-36	2	8.7	-6.7
Aberystwyth Town	1197	54	+29	10	8.9	+1.1
Carmarthen Town	1163	48	+95	15	5.0	+10.0
Bangor City	1181	48	-9	9	6.7	+2.3
Bala Town	1195	45	-15	7	9.7	-2.7
Newtown	1106	42	+20	7	4.9	+2.1
Connah's Quay Nomads	1060	38	+58	11	5.6	+5.4
Port Talbot Town	1086	38	-34	5	7.2	-2.2
Rhyl	1124	38	-61	0	5.6	-5.6
Prestatyn Town	1063	35	+13	7	6.5	+0.5
Afan Lido	799	15	-48	1	2.6	-1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AL	AU	BT	BC	CT	CQN	NEW	PTT	PT	RHY	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	3-0-1 8.22	1-0-1 1.57	1-2-1 4.99	0-1-1 2.25	2-0-0 2.62	2-1-1 7.62	0-2-0 2.99	1-1-2 6.35	3-1-0 6.46	2-0-0 2.04	0-1-1 1.20
Afan Lido	1-0-3 2.97	—	0-0-2 1.21	0-1-3 2.17	0-0-2 1.44	0-1-1 1.60	1-1-2 3.90	0-2-0 1.82	0-1-3 2.97	1-0-3 3.35	0-0-2 1.38	0-0-2 0.60
Airbus UK	1-0-1 4.00	2-0-0 4.41	—	2-0-0 3.37	2-0-2 6.82	3-0-1 7.64	1-0-1 4.60	2-2-0 7.76	1-1-0 3.88	2-0-0 4.00	1-2-1 6.99	0-4-0 3.38
Bala Town	1-2-1 6.09	3-1-0 9.10	0-0-2 2.18	—	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 2.90	2-1-1 7.68	1-0-1 3.61	2-1-1 6.77	2-0-2 7.30	1-0-1 2.68	0-1-1 1.16
Bangor City	1-1-0 3.29	2-0-0 4.15	2-0-2 4.27	1-0-1 3.09	—	2-1-1 6.77	1-0-1 3.44	3-0-1 7.06	1-1-0 3.35	0-1-1 3.60	1-2-1 5.84	0-0-4 2.72
Carmarthen Town	0-0-2 2.92	1-1-0 3.97	1-0-3 3.49	2-0-0 2.64	1-1-2 4.32	—	1-1-0 3.49	3-0-1 5.47	1-1-0 2.99	1-1-0 3.12	2-0-2 4.57	1-1-2 2.03
Connah's Quay Nomads	1-1-2 3.52	2-1-1 7.21	1-0-1 1.04	1-1-2 3.47	1-0-1 2.10	0-1-1 2.06	—	1-0-1 3.01	2-1-1 4.38	1-3-0 4.55	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 1.17
Newtown	0-2-0 2.55	0-2-0 3.74	0-2-2 3.37	1-0-1 1.94	1-0-3 4.04	1-0-3 5.61	1-0-1 2.53	—	2-0-0 2.37	1-0-1 2.92	4-0-0 4.23	1-0-3 2.01
Port Talbot Town	2-1-1 4.74	3-1-0 8.20	0-1-1 1.69	1-1-2 4.32	0-1-1 2.19	0-1-1 2.54	1-1-2 6.72	0-0-2 3.17	—	2-1-1 5.90	1-0-1 2.25	0-0-2 1.09
Prestatyn Town	0-1-3 4.63	3-0-1 7.79	0-0-2 1.58	2-0-2 3.81	1-1-0 1.96	0-1-1 2.42	0-3-1 6.54	1-0-1 2.62	1-1-2 5.18	—	0-1-1 2.00	1-0-1 1.02
Rhyl	0-0-2 3.51	2-0-0 4.21	1-2-1 4.11	1-0-1 2.86	1-2-1 5.23	2-0-2 6.51	2-0-0 3.46	0-0-4 6.87	1-0-1 3.29	1-1-0 3.55	—	0-0-4 2.42
The New Saints	1-1-0 4.43	2-0-0 5.13	0-4-0 7.75	1-1-0 4.46	4-0-0 8.46	2-1-1 9.25	2-0-0 4.46	3-0-1 9.27	2-0-0 4.54	1-0-1 4.62	4-0-0 8.80	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+8.1
Allowed	0.81	-6.8
Differential	0.91	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.51%	4.69%	4.43%	2.08%	1.82%	25.78%
1	6.51%	8.33%	9.11%	2.60%	1.04%	2.34%	29.95%
2	4.69%	9.11%	4.17%	1.82%	1.82%	0.78%	22.40%
3	4.43%	2.60%	1.82%	2.60%	—	—	11.46%
4	2.08%	1.04%	1.82%	—	0.52%	—	5.47%
5+	1.82%	2.34%	0.78%	—	—	—	4.95%
Total	25.78%	29.95%	22.40%	11.46%	5.47%	4.95%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.61	+0.00
SD	1.56	1.56	2.40
CV	0.97	0.97	—
Max	9	9	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	15.62%
1	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
2	—	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	21.88%
3	9.38%	—	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	25.00%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	31.25%	21.88%	18.75%	21.88%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	1.50	+0.75
SD	1.78	1.32	2.49
CV	0.79	0.88	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	3.12%	9.38%	59.38%
1	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	12.50%	18.75%
2	—	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.38%	15.62%	15.62%	31.25%	3.12%	25.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.66	3.12	-2.47
SD	0.90	2.23	2.34
CV	1.37	0.71	—
Max	3	8	+1
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
1	12.50%	18.75%	9.38%	—	—	—	40.62%
2	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	—	—	—	31.25%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	50.00%	28.12%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.06	+0.69
SD	1.27	0.72	1.42
CV	0.73	0.67	—
Max	6	2	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
1	6.25%	9.38%	18.75%	3.12%	3.12%	—	40.62%
2	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	9.38%	—	21.88%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	31.25%	25.00%	28.12%	3.12%	12.50%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.41	+0.50
SD	1.84	1.32	2.44
CV	0.96	0.94	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	21.88%
1	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
2	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	15.62%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	31.25%	15.62%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.56	-0.09
SD	1.24	1.87	2.05
CV	0.85	1.19	—
Max	4	9	+3
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
2	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
3	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	34.38%	15.62%	12.50%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.69	1.59	+0.09
SD	1.53	1.50	2.29
CV	0.91	0.94	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	9.38%	6.25%	28.12%
1	—	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	—	21.88%
3	6.25%	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	15.62%	28.12%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	2.03	-0.56
SD	1.59	1.64	2.65
CV	1.08	0.81	—
Max	8	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	9.38%	31.25%
2	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	31.25%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	28.12%	12.50%	15.62%	3.12%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.81	-0.38
SD	1.08	1.82	2.23
CV	0.75	1.01	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	31.25%
1	3.12%	12.50%	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	37.50%
2	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	3.12%	15.62%
3	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	28.12%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	—	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.66	-0.25
SD	1.72	1.66	2.48
CV	1.22	1.00	—
Max	8	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	9.38%	9.38%	21.88%	—	—	—	40.62%
2	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	21.88%	40.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.47	-0.16
SD	1.33	1.14	1.72
CV	1.01	0.77	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	9.38%	12.50%	9.38%	—	—	37.50%
1	3.12%	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
2	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
3	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	21.88%	40.62%	12.50%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.53	-0.19
SD	1.36	1.08	1.80
CV	1.01	0.70	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
1	—	15.62%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
2	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
4	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
Total	40.62%	56.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.69	0.62	+2.06
SD	2.02	0.55	2.24
CV	0.75	0.89	—
Max	9	2	+8
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1448	73	49.25	+23.75	60.0%	37	41	45	49	53	58	62
Airbus UK	1249	60	39.78	+20.22	80.0%	26	31	36	40	44	48	51
Aberystwyth Town	1197	54	25.09	+28.91	76.0%	12	14	21	25	29	36	44
Bala Town	1195	45	32.13	+12.87	15.0%	15	23	29	32	36	42	46
Bangor City	1181	48	34.28	+13.72	42.0%	19	24	29	35	38	43	48
Carmarthen Town	1163	48	29.30	+18.70	80.0%	16	21	25	29	33	38	50
Rhyl	1124	38	33.23	+4.77	38.0%	18	22	29	33	38	41	46
Newtown	1106	42	25.07	+16.93	93.0%	14	18	21	24	29	33	37
Port Talbot Town	1086	38	26.69	+11.31	35.0%	13	17	23	26	32	35	40
Prestatyn Town	1063	35	26.06	+8.94	41.0%	11	17	22	26	30	36	41
Connah's Quay Nomads	1060	38	24.83	+13.17	28.0%	9	16	20	24	30	37	40
Afan Lido	799	15	17.15	-2.15	35.0%	6	10	13	17	21	26	33

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.42%

Clear Edge

44.27%21.88%33.85%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 36.32 Elo pts.

130 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.31 goals

Neutral

-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.2

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

90%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.41/gm

Comfortable

00.250.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.64 * Some Luck: 4.64 to 6.96 * Lucky: 6.96 to 9.28 * Wild Swing: 9.28 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.41 * Close: 1.41 to 2.12 * Off: 2.12 to 2.83 * Way Off: 2.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.94 points

As Expected

05.8014

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

01.774

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

93.00%

Newtown

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

15.00%

Bala Town

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 123.88

1.89

Coin-Flip Parity

122.33

Interquartile Edge

63%

Even

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

94%

Clear Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Some Drama

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

25%

Very Frequent

0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.38

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.50

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.52

Some Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Very Upset-Prone

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Shaky

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.35

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.87

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.121

Well Within Noise

00.1220.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	90.00%	8.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	7.00%	50.00%	20.00%	11.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Carmarthen Town	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	14.00%	12.00%	11.00%	14.00%	18.00%	8.00%	10.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Bangor City	2.00%	14.00%	24.00%	14.00%	15.00%	7.00%	12.00%	4.00%	5.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Newtown	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	5.00%	14.00%	13.00%	20.00%	19.00%	15.00%	4.00%
Rhyl	—	14.00%	19.00%	14.00%	18.00%	12.00%	5.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	6.00%	12.00%	8.00%	12.00%	15.00%	11.00%	15.00%	11.00%
Bala Town	—	8.00%	15.00%	19.00%	10.00%	21.00%	8.00%	6.00%	7.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Port Talbot Town	—	1.00%	3.00%	7.00%	10.00%	11.00%	16.00%	15.00%	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	4.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	5.00%	6.00%	5.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	15.00%	13.00%	19.00%	14.00%
Prestatyn Town	—	2.00%	1.00%	5.00%	9.00%	10.00%	14.00%	16.00%	10.00%	17.00%	13.00%	3.00%
Afan Lido	—	—	—	—	3.00%	—	—	2.00%	6.00%	10.00%	19.00%	60.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	95.93%	4.04%	0.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	4.07%	92.45%	3.13%	0.31%	0.04%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Carmarthen Town	—	0.54%	19.88%	25.18%	27.26%	27.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	—	1.70%	38.98%	26.33%	19.76%	13.23%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	0.68%	16.24%	22.94%	27.61%	32.53%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rhyl	—	0.59%	21.74%	25.24%	25.33%	27.10%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.06%	29.83%	11.41%	2.96%	0.72%	0.02%
Bala Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	35.93%	42.59%	15.61%	4.77%	1.08%	0.02%
Port Talbot Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.25%	19.75%	43.96%	20.48%	8.22%	0.34%
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.76%	3.07%	12.98%	34.71%	45.28%	3.20%
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	4.75%	15.88%	35.80%	39.16%	3.41%
Afan Lido	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.16%	1.28%	5.54%	93.01%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Rhyl	99.00%	1.00%
Bala Town	98.00%	2.00%
Bangor City	97.00%	3.00%
Prestatyn Town	94.00%	6.00%
Carmarthen Town	92.00%	8.00%
Aberystwyth Town	86.00%	14.00%
Port Talbot Town	86.00%	14.00%
Newtown	83.00%	17.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	52.00%	48.00%
Afan Lido	13.00%	87.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Carmarthen Town	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
Rhyl	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Aberystwyth Town	99.26%	0.74%
Bala Town	98.90%	1.10%
Port Talbot Town	91.44%	8.56%
Prestatyn Town	57.43%	42.57%
Connah's Quay Nomads	51.52%	48.48%
Afan Lido	1.45%	98.55%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2013-08-23	Bala Town	W 4-1	45.4	1063	1204	25.08%	22.46%	52.46%	-0.81	+25.6	3
2013-08-23	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-4	45.4	1204	1063	52.46%	22.46%	25.08%	+0.81	-25.6	0
2013-08-24	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	42.1	1204	1079	58.89%	21.50%	19.61%	+1.24	-33.6	0
2013-08-24	@ Rhyl	W 3-0	42.1	1079	1204	19.61%	21.50%	58.89%	-1.24	+33.6	3
2013-08-24	Afan Lido	D 0-0	48.8	1092	1020	52.94%	22.41%	24.66%	+0.84	-1.5	1
2013-08-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.8	1020	1092	24.66%	22.41%	52.94%	-0.84	+1.5	1
2013-08-24	Bangor City	L 0-1	38.4	1082	1187	29.18%	22.88%	47.94%	-0.53	-6.9	0
2013-08-24	@ Newtown	W 1-0	38.4	1187	1082	47.94%	22.88%	29.18%	+0.53	+6.9	3
2013-08-24	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	35.0	1204	1074	59.41%	21.40%	19.19%	+1.28	+4.8	3
2013-08-24	@ Airbus UK	L 0-1	35.0	1074	1204	19.19%	21.40%	59.41%	-1.28	-4.8	0
2013-08-24	Port Talbot Town	W 6-0	28.3	1330	1129	66.40%	19.69%	13.91%	+1.83	+18.2	3
2013-08-24	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	28.3	1129	1330	13.91%	19.69%	66.40%	-1.83	-18.2	0
2013-08-26	Afan Lido	W 3-0	31.4	1113	1021	55.20%	22.11%	22.69%	+0.98	+15.2	6
2013-08-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	31.4	1021	1113	22.69%	22.11%	55.20%	-0.98	-15.2	1
2013-08-26	Airbus UK	L 1-2	46.5	1179	1209	39.32%	23.20%	37.47%	+0.05	-8.2	0
2013-08-26	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	46.5	1209	1179	37.47%	23.20%	39.32%	-0.05	+8.2	6
2013-08-26	Carmarthen Town	L 0-4	37.4	1075	1069	44.27%	23.09%	32.64%	+0.32	-34.3	0
2013-08-26	@ Newtown	W 4-0	37.4	1069	1075	32.64%	23.09%	44.27%	-0.32	+34.3	3
2013-08-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.7	1111	1091	46.20%	22.99%	30.81%	+0.43	-0.8	1
2013-08-26	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.7	1091	1111	30.81%	22.99%	46.20%	-0.43	+0.8	2
2013-08-26	Rhyl	L 2-3	53.6	1194	1171	46.71%	22.96%	30.33%	+0.46	-9.0	3
2013-08-26	@ Bangor City	W 3-2	53.6	1171	1194	30.33%	22.96%	46.71%	-0.46	+9.0	3
2013-08-26	The New Saints	W 1-0	48.6	1089	1349	14.84%	20.06%	65.10%	-1.72	+13.4	6
2013-08-26	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	48.6	1349	1089	65.10%	20.06%	14.84%	+1.72	-13.4	3
2013-08-30	Bala Town	W 2-1	47.9	1092	1171	32.55%	23.08%	44.37%	-0.33	+9.1	5
2013-08-30	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	47.9	1171	1092	44.37%	23.08%	32.55%	+0.33	-9.1	0
2013-08-30	Newtown	L 0-1	47.3	1180	1041	60.39%	21.20%	18.41%	+1.35	-12.6	3
2013-08-30	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	47.3	1041	1180	18.41%	21.20%	60.39%	-1.35	+12.6	3
2013-08-30	Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	42.4	1104	1110	42.68%	23.14%	34.17%	+0.23	+12.8	6
2013-08-30	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	42.4	1110	1104	34.17%	23.14%	42.68%	-0.23	-12.8	1
2013-08-30	Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	45.8	1185	1102	54.18%	22.25%	23.57%	+0.92	-11.4	3
2013-08-30	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	45.8	1102	1185	23.57%	22.25%	54.18%	-0.92	+11.4	9
2013-08-30	The New Saints	D 2-2	58.6	1128	1335	18.81%	21.30%	59.89%	-1.31	+1.5	7
2013-08-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	58.6	1335	1128	59.89%	21.30%	18.81%	+1.31	-1.5	4
2013-08-31	Airbus UK	L 1-3	37.1	1006	1217	18.49%	21.22%	60.28%	-1.34	-7.5	1
2013-08-31	@ Afan Lido	W 3-1	37.1	1217	1006	60.28%	21.22%	18.49%	+1.34	+7.5	9
2013-09-07	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	36.3	1097	1130	38.92%	23.21%	37.87%	+0.03	+23.2	4
2013-09-07	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	36.3	1130	1097	37.87%	23.21%	38.92%	-0.03	-23.2	7
2013-09-07	Bala Town	W 3-1	36.4	1334	1161	63.69%	20.44%	15.88%	+1.60	+6.5	7
2013-09-07	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	36.4	1161	1334	15.88%	20.44%	63.69%	-1.60	-6.5	0
2013-09-07	Bangor City	L 0-3	31.0	999	1174	21.65%	21.92%	56.42%	-1.07	-14.6	1
2013-09-07	@ Afan Lido	W 3-0	31.0	1174	999	56.42%	21.92%	21.65%	+1.07	+14.6	6
2013-09-07	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	48.1	1114	1101	45.27%	23.04%	31.69%	+0.38	-9.2	9
2013-09-07	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	48.1	1101	1114	31.69%	23.04%	45.27%	-0.38	+9.2	8
2013-09-07	Newtown	W 6-1	31.4	1224	1053	63.60%	20.46%	15.94%	+1.60	+14.5	12
2013-09-07	@ Airbus UK	L 1-6	31.4	1053	1224	15.94%	20.46%	63.60%	-1.60	-14.5	3
2013-09-07	Rhyl	W 1-0	41.9	1117	1167	36.39%	23.19%	40.42%	-0.11	+8.9	9
2013-09-07	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	41.9	1167	1117	40.42%	23.19%	36.39%	+0.11	-8.9	3
2013-09-13	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	39.6	1106	1104	43.83%	23.11%	33.07%	+0.30	+7.6	10
2013-09-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	39.6	1104	1106	33.07%	23.11%	43.83%	-0.30	-7.6	9
2013-09-13	The New Saints	L 0-4	28.8	1110	1340	16.96%	20.79%	62.26%	-1.49	-15.1	8
2013-09-13	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-0	28.8	1340	1110	62.26%	20.79%	16.96%	+1.49	+15.1	10
2013-09-14	Afan Lido	W 3-0	29.7	1125	984	60.63%	21.15%	18.22%	+1.37	+12.4	12
2013-09-14	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	29.7	984	1125	18.22%	21.15%	60.63%	-1.37	-12.4	1
2013-09-14	Airbus UK	D 2-2	58.0	1158	1239	32.29%	23.07%	44.64%	-0.34	+0.4	4
2013-09-14	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	58.0	1239	1158	44.64%	23.07%	32.29%	+0.34	-0.4	13
2013-09-14	Newtown	W 1-0	35.4	1155	1039	57.98%	21.66%	20.35%	+1.17	+5.0	3
2013-09-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	35.4	1039	1155	20.35%	21.66%	57.98%	-1.17	-5.0	3
2013-09-14	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.8	1188	1120	52.39%	22.47%	25.14%	+0.80	-1.3	7
2013-09-14	@ Bangor City	D 1-1	52.8	1120	1188	25.14%	22.47%	52.39%	-0.80	+1.3	5
2013-09-20	Rhyl	L 0-1	42.9	1160	1158	43.73%	23.11%	33.16%	+0.29	-9.5	3
2013-09-20	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	42.9	1158	1160	33.16%	23.11%	43.73%	-0.29	+9.5	7
2013-09-21	Afan Lido	D 3-3	62.0	1034	972	51.63%	22.55%	25.82%	+0.75	-0.8	4
2013-09-21	@ Newtown	D 3-3	62.0	972	1034	25.82%	22.55%	51.63%	-0.75	+0.8	2
2013-09-21	Bangor City	W 2-0	31.5	1355	1187	63.31%	20.53%	16.16%	+1.57	+7.6	13
2013-09-21	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	31.5	1187	1355	16.16%	20.53%	63.31%	-1.57	-7.6	7
2013-09-21	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.6	1097	1138	37.70%	23.21%	39.09%	-0.04	+0.1	10
2013-09-21	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.6	1138	1097	39.09%	23.21%	37.70%	+0.04	-0.1	13
2013-09-21	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 3-3	61.9	1114	1095	46.15%	22.99%	30.86%	+0.43	-0.4	11
2013-09-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	61.9	1095	1114	30.86%	22.99%	46.15%	-0.43	+0.4	9
2013-09-21	Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	30.7	1238	1122	58.04%	21.65%	20.31%	+1.18	+13.7	16
2013-09-21	@ Airbus UK	L 0-3	30.7	1122	1238	20.31%	21.65%	58.04%	-1.18	-13.7	5
2013-09-27	Airbus UK	L 2-3	46.4	1097	1252	23.58%	22.25%	54.16%	-0.92	-5.1	10
2013-09-27	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-2	46.4	1252	1097	54.16%	22.25%	23.58%	+0.92	+5.1	19
2013-09-27	Bangor City	W 2-1	48.1	1095	1179	31.86%	23.05%	45.09%	-0.37	+9.2	12
2013-09-27	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	48.1	1179	1095	45.09%	23.05%	31.86%	+0.37	-9.2	7
2013-09-28	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.6	1114	1151	38.32%	23.21%	38.47%	+0.00	+0.0	12
2013-09-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.6	1151	1114	38.47%	23.21%	38.32%	+0.00	-0.0	4
2013-09-28	Carmarthen Town	W 6-0	27.8	1363	1138	68.44%	19.05%	12.51%	+2.01	+16.3	16
2013-09-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	27.8	1138	1363	12.51%	19.05%	68.44%	-2.01	-16.3	13
2013-09-28	Newtown	L 0-1	45.5	1108	1033	53.24%	22.37%	24.39%	+0.86	-11.2	5
2013-09-28	@ Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	45.5	1033	1108	24.39%	22.37%	53.24%	-0.86	+11.2	7
2013-09-29	Rhyl	L 0-3	30.3	972	1168	19.78%	21.54%	58.69%	-1.22	-13.4	2
2013-09-29	@ Afan Lido	W 3-0	30.3	1168	972	58.69%	21.54%	19.78%	+1.22	+13.4	10
2013-10-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	47.3	1170	1114	50.97%	22.62%	26.41%	+0.71	+5.7	10
2013-10-04	@ Bangor City	L 2-3	47.3	1114	1170	26.41%	22.62%	50.97%	-0.71	-5.7	12
2013-10-05	Afan Lido	D 0-0	49.6	1150	959	65.49%	19.95%	14.56%	+1.75	-2.8	5
2013-10-05	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.6	959	1150	14.56%	19.95%	65.49%	-1.75	+2.8	3
2013-10-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 3-3	61.9	1121	1104	45.84%	23.01%	31.15%	+0.41	-0.4	14
2013-10-05	@ Carmarthen Town	D 3-3	61.9	1104	1121	31.15%	23.01%	45.84%	-0.41	+0.4	13
2013-10-05	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	46.6	1044	1092	36.79%	23.20%	40.01%	-0.09	+8.3	10
2013-10-05	@ Newtown	L 1-2	46.6	1092	1044	40.01%	23.20%	36.79%	+0.09	-8.3	10
2013-10-05	Rhyl	W 1-0	43.3	1097	1181	31.77%	23.05%	45.19%	-0.37	+9.8	8
2013-10-05	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	43.3	1181	1097	45.19%	23.05%	31.77%	+0.37	-9.8	10
2013-10-05	The New Saints	D 1-1	53.9	1257	1379	27.25%	22.71%	50.05%	-0.66	+1.1	20
2013-10-05	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.9	1379	1257	50.05%	22.71%	27.25%	+0.66	-1.1	17
2013-10-12	Bangor City	D 4-4	64.1	1121	1176	35.79%	23.18%	41.03%	-0.14	+0.1	15
2013-10-12	@ Carmarthen Town	D 4-4	64.1	1176	1121	41.03%	23.18%	35.79%	+0.14	-0.1	11
2013-10-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 2-3	50.3	1052	1105	36.10%	23.19%	40.71%	-0.12	-7.3	10
2013-10-12	@ Newtown	W 3-2	50.3	1105	1052	40.71%	23.19%	36.10%	+0.12	+7.3	16
2013-10-12	Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	37.8	962	1083	27.30%	22.71%	49.99%	-0.65	-6.5	3
2013-10-12	@ Afan Lido	W 1-0	37.8	1083	962	49.99%	22.71%	27.30%	+0.65	+6.5	13
2013-10-12	The New Saints	L 0-2	32.6	1172	1378	18.84%	21.31%	59.84%	-1.31	-8.8	10
2013-10-12	@ Rhyl	W 2-0	32.6	1378	1172	59.84%	21.31%	18.84%	+1.31	+8.8	20
2013-10-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	34.5	1258	1108	61.55%	20.95%	17.50%	+1.44	+10.1	23
2013-10-13	@ Airbus UK	L 1-4	34.5	1108	1258	17.50%	20.95%	61.55%	-1.44	-10.1	12
2013-10-13	Bala Town	L 0-2	38.2	1106	1148	37.68%	23.21%	39.11%	-0.04	-15.9	8
2013-10-13	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	38.2	1148	1106	39.11%	23.21%	37.68%	+0.04	+15.9	8
2013-10-18	Airbus UK	L 0-1	39.2	1176	1268	30.75%	22.99%	46.26%	-0.43	-7.2	11
2013-10-18	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	39.2	1268	1176	46.26%	22.99%	30.75%	+0.43	+7.2	26
2013-10-18	Newtown	D 3-3	62.0	1098	1045	50.52%	22.66%	26.82%	+0.69	-0.7	13
2013-10-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	62.0	1045	1098	26.82%	22.66%	50.52%	-0.69	+0.7	11
2013-10-19	Afan Lido	W 3-0	23.3	1387	955	82.35%	12.83%	4.82%	+3.60	+3.0	23
2013-10-19	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	23.3	955	1387	4.82%	12.83%	82.35%	-3.60	-3.0	3
2013-10-19	Carmarthen Town	L 2-4	50.9	1164	1121	49.18%	22.78%	28.04%	+0.61	-15.3	8
2013-10-19	@ Bala Town	W 4-2	50.9	1121	1164	28.04%	22.78%	49.18%	-0.61	+15.3	18
2013-10-19	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.6	1090	1090	43.44%	23.12%	33.44%	+0.27	-0.5	14
2013-10-19	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	48.6	1090	1090	33.44%	23.12%	43.44%	-0.27	+0.5	9
2013-10-19	Rhyl	L 1-3	43.1	1112	1163	36.36%	23.19%	40.44%	-0.11	-13.4	16
2013-10-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	43.1	1163	1112	40.44%	23.19%	36.36%	+0.11	+13.4	13
2013-10-25	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.8	1089	1097	42.41%	23.15%	34.43%	+0.22	-0.3	15
2013-10-25	@ Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.8	1097	1089	34.43%	23.15%	42.41%	-0.22	+0.3	14
2013-10-25	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	58.2	952	1136	20.81%	21.76%	57.44%	-1.14	+1.3	4
2013-10-25	@ Afan Lido	D 2-2	58.2	1136	952	57.44%	21.76%	20.81%	+1.14	-1.3	19
2013-10-25	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 5-0	25.6	1390	1099	73.62%	17.12%	9.27%	+2.52	+10.0	26
2013-10-25	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	25.6	1099	1390	9.27%	17.12%	73.62%	-2.52	-10.0	16
2013-10-26	Bala Town	W 2-1	48.7	1046	1148	29.54%	22.91%	47.56%	-0.51	+9.6	14
2013-10-26	@ Newtown	L 1-2	48.7	1148	1046	47.56%	22.91%	29.54%	+0.51	-9.6	8
2013-10-26	Bangor City	L 1-2	44.4	1091	1169	32.70%	23.09%	44.21%	-0.32	-7.1	9
2013-10-26	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	44.4	1169	1091	44.21%	23.09%	32.70%	+0.32	+7.1	14
2013-11-01	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-1	36.5	1176	1089	54.64%	22.19%	23.17%	+0.95	+13.0	17
2013-11-01	@ Bangor City	L 1-4	36.5	1089	1176	23.17%	22.19%	54.64%	-0.95	-13.0	16
2013-11-02	Afan Lido	W 3-0	27.5	1176	954	68.23%	19.12%	12.65%	+1.99	+8.6	16
2013-11-02	@ Rhyl	L 0-3	27.5	954	1176	12.65%	19.12%	68.23%	-1.99	-8.6	4
2013-11-02	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	38.1	1055	1084	39.52%	23.20%	37.28%	+0.06	+15.8	17
2013-11-02	@ Newtown	L 0-2	38.1	1084	1055	37.28%	23.20%	39.52%	-0.06	-15.8	9
2013-11-02	Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	30.6	1276	1089	65.05%	20.08%	14.87%	+1.71	+7.0	29
2013-11-02	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	30.6	1089	1276	14.87%	20.08%	65.05%	-1.71	-7.0	15
2013-11-08	Airbus UK	W 2-1	51.5	1098	1283	20.71%	21.74%	57.55%	-1.14	+11.3	17
2013-11-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	51.5	1283	1098	57.55%	21.74%	20.71%	+1.14	-11.3	29
2013-11-08	Newtown	L 0-4	37.3	1076	1071	44.16%	23.09%	32.74%	+0.32	-34.2	16
2013-11-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-0	37.3	1071	1076	32.74%	23.09%	44.16%	-0.32	+34.2	20
2013-11-08	Rhyl	W 3-0	28.5	1400	1185	67.58%	19.33%	13.09%	+1.93	+8.9	29
2013-11-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	28.5	1185	1400	13.09%	19.33%	67.58%	-1.93	-8.9	16
2013-11-09	Afan Lido	L 1-2	52.0	1082	945	60.17%	21.25%	18.59%	+1.33	-11.8	15
2013-11-09	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	52.0	945	1082	18.59%	21.25%	60.17%	-1.33	+11.8	7
2013-11-09	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	44.8	1189	1135	50.60%	22.66%	26.75%	+0.69	-10.7	17
2013-11-09	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	44.8	1135	1189	26.75%	22.66%	50.60%	-0.69	+10.7	22
2013-11-09	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.8	1139	1068	52.71%	22.43%	24.86%	+0.82	-1.5	9
2013-11-09	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	48.8	1068	1139	24.86%	22.43%	52.71%	-0.82	+1.5	10
2013-11-15	Bangor City	L 0-1	46.3	1271	1178	55.40%	22.08%	22.52%	+1.00	-11.6	29
2013-11-15	@ Airbus UK	W 1-0	46.3	1178	1271	22.52%	22.08%	55.40%	-1.00	+11.6	20
2013-11-15	The New Saints	L 1-2	33.9	957	1409	6.17%	14.41%	79.42%	-3.20	-1.4	7
2013-11-15	@ Afan Lido	W 2-1	33.9	1409	957	79.42%	14.41%	6.17%	+3.20	+1.4	32
2013-11-16	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.6	1105	1109	43.04%	23.13%	33.83%	+0.25	-0.5	21
2013-11-16	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.6	1109	1105	33.83%	23.13%	43.04%	-0.25	+0.5	18
2013-11-16	Bala Town	W 2-0	36.6	1146	1137	44.72%	23.07%	32.22%	+0.35	+14.1	25
2013-11-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	36.6	1137	1146	32.22%	23.07%	44.72%	-0.35	-14.1	9
2013-11-16	Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	47.6	1069	1070	43.43%	23.12%	33.45%	+0.27	-8.9	10
2013-11-16	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	47.6	1070	1069	33.45%	23.12%	43.43%	-0.27	+8.9	18
2013-11-17	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	39.6	1176	1042	59.91%	21.30%	18.79%	+1.31	+4.4	19
2013-11-17	@ Rhyl	L 1-2	39.6	1042	1176	18.79%	21.30%	59.91%	-1.31	-4.4	16
2013-11-22	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.8	1123	1079	49.39%	22.77%	27.84%	+0.62	+6.2	12
2013-11-22	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	42.8	1079	1123	27.84%	22.77%	49.39%	-0.62	-6.2	18
2013-11-22	Rhyl	W 3-2	52.5	1109	1180	33.58%	23.12%	43.30%	-0.27	+8.4	21
2013-11-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	52.5	1180	1109	43.30%	23.12%	33.58%	+0.27	-8.4	19
2013-11-23	Airbus UK	L 0-1	38.8	1160	1260	29.88%	22.93%	47.19%	-0.49	-7.0	25
2013-11-23	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	38.8	1260	1160	47.19%	22.93%	29.88%	+0.49	+7.0	32
2013-11-23	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	47.9	956	1037	32.19%	23.07%	44.75%	-0.35	+9.1	10
2013-11-23	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	47.9	1037	956	44.75%	23.07%	32.19%	+0.35	-9.1	16
2013-11-23	Newtown	W 2-1	41.3	1190	1105	54.39%	22.22%	23.39%	+0.93	+5.4	23
2013-11-23	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	41.3	1105	1190	23.39%	22.22%	54.39%	-0.93	-5.4	21
2013-11-24	The New Saints	L 1-3	33.7	1061	1410	9.89%	17.55%	72.57%	-2.41	-4.0	10
2013-11-24	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	33.7	1410	1061	72.57%	17.55%	9.89%	+2.41	+4.0	35
2013-11-26	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.7	1129	1118	45.11%	23.05%	31.84%	+0.37	-0.7	13
2013-11-26	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	48.7	1118	1129	31.84%	23.05%	45.11%	-0.37	+0.7	22
2013-11-26	Rhyl	D 2-2	58.3	1267	1172	55.56%	22.06%	22.38%	+1.01	-1.2	33
2013-11-26	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	58.3	1172	1267	22.38%	22.06%	55.56%	-1.01	+1.2	20
2013-11-29	Bala Town	W 2-1	39.7	1266	1129	60.16%	21.25%	18.59%	+1.33	+4.4	36
2013-11-29	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	39.7	1129	1266	18.59%	21.25%	60.16%	-1.33	-4.4	13
2013-11-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	50.5	965	1118	23.76%	22.28%	53.97%	-0.90	+10.7	13
2013-11-30	@ Afan Lido	L 1-2	50.5	1118	965	53.97%	22.28%	23.76%	+0.90	-10.7	22
2013-11-30	Bangor City	D 0-0	48.7	1173	1195	40.46%	23.19%	36.35%	+0.11	-0.2	21
2013-11-30	@ Rhyl	D 0-0	48.7	1195	1173	36.35%	23.19%	40.46%	-0.11	+0.2	24
2013-11-30	Newtown	L 0-2	41.9	1153	1100	50.58%	22.66%	26.76%	+0.69	-20.2	25
2013-11-30	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	41.9	1100	1153	26.76%	22.66%	50.58%	-0.69	+20.2	24
2013-11-30	Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	38.7	1028	1057	39.50%	23.20%	37.30%	+0.06	-16.5	16
2013-11-30	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	38.7	1057	1028	37.30%	23.20%	39.50%	-0.06	+16.5	13
2013-11-30	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	25.2	1414	1073	77.06%	15.58%	7.36%	+2.90	+4.8	38
2013-11-30	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	25.2	1073	1414	7.36%	15.58%	77.06%	-2.90	-4.8	18
2013-12-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	25.2	1419	1108	75.04%	16.51%	8.45%	+2.67	+7.3	41
2013-12-13	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	25.2	1108	1419	8.45%	16.51%	75.04%	-2.67	-7.3	22
2013-12-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 7-0	31.3	1124	1011	57.59%	21.73%	20.68%	+1.15	+30.9	16
2013-12-13	@ Bala Town	L 0-7	31.3	1011	1124	20.68%	21.73%	57.59%	-1.15	-30.9	16
2013-12-14	Afan Lido	W 2-0	27.8	1270	975	73.86%	17.01%	9.12%	+2.54	+4.2	39
2013-12-14	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	27.8	975	1270	9.12%	17.01%	73.86%	-2.54	-4.2	13
2013-12-14	Bangor City	D 0-0	48.8	1068	1195	26.64%	22.65%	50.71%	-0.70	+1.3	19
2013-12-14	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	48.8	1195	1068	50.71%	22.65%	26.64%	+0.70	-1.3	25
2013-12-14	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.6	1073	1133	35.13%	23.17%	41.70%	-0.18	+0.3	14
2013-12-14	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.6	1133	1073	41.70%	23.17%	35.13%	+0.18	-0.3	26
2013-12-14	Rhyl	W 2-0	39.2	1120	1173	36.02%	23.19%	40.80%	-0.13	+16.9	27
2013-12-14	@ Newtown	L 0-2	39.2	1173	1120	40.80%	23.19%	36.02%	+0.13	-16.9	21
2013-12-20	Bala Town	D 1-1	55.0	1426	1155	72.12%	17.72%	10.16%	+2.36	-3.1	42
2013-12-20	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.0	1155	1426	10.16%	17.72%	72.12%	-2.36	+3.1	17
2013-12-20	Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	48.6	1100	1073	47.17%	22.93%	29.89%	+0.49	-9.5	22
2013-12-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	48.6	1073	1100	29.89%	22.93%	47.17%	-0.49	+9.5	17
2013-12-20	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	57.8	981	1069	31.26%	23.02%	45.72%	-0.40	+0.5	17
2013-12-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 2-2	57.8	1069	981	45.72%	23.02%	31.26%	+0.40	-0.5	20
2013-12-21	Afan Lido	W 1-0	32.3	1194	971	68.24%	19.12%	12.64%	+1.99	+3.1	28
2013-12-21	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	32.3	971	1194	12.64%	19.12%	68.24%	-1.99	-3.2	13
2013-12-21	Airbus UK	D 2-2	58.2	1137	1274	25.50%	22.51%	51.99%	-0.78	+0.9	28
2013-12-21	@ Newtown	D 2-2	58.2	1274	1137	51.99%	22.51%	25.50%	+0.78	-0.9	40
2013-12-21	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	36.0	1156	1132	46.71%	22.96%	30.32%	+0.46	+13.4	24
2013-12-21	@ Rhyl	L 0-2	36.0	1132	1156	30.32%	22.96%	46.71%	-0.46	-13.4	26
2013-12-26	Afan Lido	W 5-1	33.9	1083	968	57.82%	21.69%	20.49%	+1.16	+15.1	20
2013-12-26	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-5	33.9	968	1083	20.49%	21.69%	57.82%	-1.16	-15.1	13
2013-12-26	Airbus UK	L 1-2	37.2	981	1273	12.83%	19.21%	67.96%	-1.97	-3.0	17
2013-12-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	37.2	1273	981	67.96%	19.21%	12.83%	+1.97	+3.0	43
2013-12-26	Bala Town	W 4-2	44.8	1197	1158	48.70%	22.82%	28.48%	+0.58	+9.9	31
2013-12-26	@ Bangor City	L 2-4	44.8	1158	1197	28.48%	22.82%	48.70%	-0.58	-9.9	17
2013-12-26	Rhyl	D 0-0	48.7	1069	1169	29.79%	22.92%	47.29%	-0.49	+0.9	21
2013-12-26	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	48.7	1169	1069	47.29%	22.92%	29.79%	+0.49	-0.9	25
2013-12-26	The New Saints	W 1-0	49.5	1138	1423	13.22%	19.39%	67.39%	-1.92	+13.8	31
2013-12-26	@ Newtown	L 0-1	49.5	1423	1138	67.39%	19.39%	13.22%	+1.92	-13.8	42
2013-12-28	Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	50.7	1091	1119	39.57%	23.20%	37.23%	+0.06	+7.5	25
2013-12-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	50.7	1119	1091	37.23%	23.20%	39.57%	-0.06	-7.5	26
2014-01-01	Newtown	W 5-1	30.6	1409	1151	71.10%	18.11%	10.79%	+2.26	+7.9	45
2014-01-01	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	30.6	1151	1409	10.79%	18.11%	71.10%	-2.26	-7.9	31
2014-01-01	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	40.8	1168	1070	56.01%	21.99%	22.00%	+1.04	+5.1	28
2014-01-01	@ Rhyl	L 1-2	40.8	1070	1168	22.00%	21.99%	56.01%	-1.04	-5.1	21
2014-01-04	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	32.2	978	1098	27.42%	22.73%	49.86%	-0.65	-23.4	17
2014-01-04	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-0	32.2	1098	978	49.86%	22.73%	27.42%	+0.65	+23.4	28
2014-01-04	Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.1	1098	1276	21.36%	21.87%	56.77%	-1.09	+1.7	21
2014-01-04	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.1	1276	1098	56.77%	21.87%	21.36%	+1.09	-1.7	44
2014-01-04	Bala Town	L 2-4	50.3	1174	1149	46.91%	22.95%	30.14%	+0.47	-14.7	28
2014-01-04	@ Rhyl	W 4-2	50.3	1149	1174	30.14%	22.95%	46.91%	-0.47	+14.7	20
2014-01-04	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.7	1112	1065	49.76%	22.73%	27.51%	+0.64	+6.2	29
2014-01-04	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	42.7	1065	1112	27.51%	22.73%	49.76%	-0.64	-6.2	21
2014-01-04	The New Saints	L 1-2	40.6	1207	1417	18.53%	21.23%	60.24%	-1.34	-4.4	31
2014-01-04	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	40.6	1417	1207	60.24%	21.23%	18.53%	+1.34	+4.3	48
2014-01-05	Newtown	D 2-2	58.2	953	1144	20.22%	21.63%	58.15%	-1.19	+1.4	14
2014-01-05	@ Afan Lido	D 2-2	58.2	1144	953	58.15%	21.63%	20.22%	+1.19	-1.4	32
2014-01-12	Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	32.0	954	1100	24.63%	22.40%	52.97%	-0.84	-16.3	14
2014-01-12	@ Afan Lido	W 3-0	32.0	1100	954	52.97%	22.40%	24.63%	+0.84	+16.3	24
2014-01-14	Bangor City	W 1-0	41.5	1163	1203	37.96%	23.21%	38.83%	-0.02	+8.6	23
2014-01-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	41.5	1203	1163	38.83%	23.21%	37.96%	+0.02	-8.6	31
2014-01-14	The New Saints	D 0-0	50.5	1118	1421	12.17%	18.88%	68.95%	-2.06	+3.2	30
2014-01-14	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	50.5	1421	1118	68.95%	18.88%	12.17%	+2.06	-3.2	49
2014-01-18	Airbus UK	D 1-1	55.0	1418	1274	60.89%	21.10%	18.02%	+1.39	-2.1	50
2014-01-18	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.0	1274	1418	18.02%	21.10%	60.89%	-1.39	+2.1	45
2014-01-18	Bala Town	L 1-6	31.6	938	1172	16.67%	20.70%	62.63%	-1.52	-15.2	14
2014-01-18	@ Afan Lido	W 6-1	31.6	1172	938	62.63%	20.70%	16.67%	+1.52	+15.2	26
2014-01-18	Bangor City	D 3-3	62.0	1122	1194	33.42%	23.12%	43.46%	-0.28	+0.3	29
2014-01-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	62.0	1194	1122	43.46%	23.12%	33.42%	+0.28	-0.3	32
2014-01-18	Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	38.5	955	1121	22.50%	22.08%	55.42%	-1.00	-9.0	17
2014-01-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	38.5	1121	955	55.42%	22.08%	22.50%	+1.00	+9.0	33
2014-01-18	Newtown	W 5-2	46.4	1058	1142	31.91%	23.05%	45.04%	-0.36	+19.5	24
2014-01-18	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-5	46.4	1142	1058	45.04%	23.05%	31.91%	+0.36	-19.5	32
2014-01-25	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	38.3	1130	1122	44.60%	23.07%	32.32%	+0.34	-26.4	33
2014-01-25	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	38.3	1122	1130	32.32%	23.07%	44.60%	-0.34	+26.4	32
2014-02-01	Port Talbot Town	W 5-2	41.2	1159	1116	49.23%	22.78%	27.99%	+0.61	+13.3	31
2014-02-01	@ Rhyl	L 2-5	41.2	1116	1159	27.99%	22.78%	49.23%	-0.61	-13.3	24
2014-03-25	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	54.8	1285	1002	73.02%	17.37%	9.62%	+2.46	-13.9	45
2014-03-25	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	54.8	1002	1285	9.62%	17.37%	73.02%	-2.46	+13.9	20

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2014-02-08	Port Talbot Town	L 2-4	48.2	1078	1103	40.04%	23.20%	36.76%	+0.09	-12.9	0
2014-02-08	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-2	48.2	1103	1078	36.76%	23.20%	40.04%	-0.09	+12.9	3
2014-02-17	Airbus UK	W 2-0	41.4	1172	1277	29.31%	22.89%	47.80%	-0.52	+19.3	3
2014-02-17	@ Rhyl	L 0-2	41.4	1277	1172	47.80%	22.89%	29.31%	+0.52	-19.3	0
2014-02-18	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-6	29.4	923	1148	17.30%	20.89%	61.81%	-1.46	-22.6	0
2014-02-18	@ Afan Lido	W 6-0	29.4	1148	923	61.81%	20.89%	17.30%	+1.46	+22.6	3
2014-02-18	Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.7	946	1065	27.53%	22.74%	49.73%	-0.64	+1.0	1
2014-02-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.7	1065	946	49.73%	22.74%	27.53%	+0.64	-1.0	1
2014-02-22	Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	42.9	1191	1103	54.77%	22.17%	23.06%	+0.96	+8.2	6
2014-02-22	@ Rhyl	L 2-4	42.9	1103	1191	23.06%	22.17%	54.77%	-0.96	-8.2	0
2014-02-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	52.7	1116	947	63.38%	20.52%	16.10%	+1.58	-12.4	3
2014-02-22	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	52.7	947	1116	16.10%	20.52%	63.38%	-1.58	+12.4	4
2014-02-22	Prestatyn Town	L 0-2	33.4	900	1064	22.75%	22.12%	55.13%	-0.98	-10.5	0
2014-02-22	@ Afan Lido	W 2-0	33.4	1064	900	55.13%	22.12%	22.75%	+0.98	+10.5	4
2014-02-22	The New Saints	D 1-1	54.4	1257	1416	23.23%	22.20%	54.57%	-0.94	+1.5	1
2014-02-22	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	54.4	1416	1257	54.57%	22.20%	23.23%	+0.94	-1.5	1
2014-02-25	Airbus UK	L 2-4	46.8	1194	1259	34.37%	23.15%	42.48%	-0.22	-11.5	0
2014-02-25	@ Bangor City	W 4-2	46.8	1259	1194	42.48%	23.15%	34.37%	+0.22	+11.5	4
2014-03-01	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	38.8	1182	1095	54.65%	22.19%	23.17%	+0.95	+9.2	3
2014-03-01	@ Bangor City	L 1-3	38.8	1095	1182	23.17%	22.19%	54.65%	-0.95	-9.2	0
2014-03-04	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	37.4	1171	959	67.32%	19.41%	13.27%	+1.91	+3.1	6
2014-03-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	37.4	959	1171	13.27%	19.41%	67.32%	-1.91	-3.1	4
2014-03-04	Newtown	W 1-0	37.1	1191	1123	52.47%	22.46%	25.07%	+0.81	+6.0	6
2014-03-04	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	37.1	1123	1191	25.07%	22.46%	52.47%	-0.81	-6.1	0
2014-03-08	Afan Lido	W 3-0	32.3	956	890	52.17%	22.49%	25.34%	+0.79	+16.7	7
2014-03-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	32.3	890	956	25.34%	22.49%	52.17%	-0.79	-16.7	0
2014-03-08	Airbus UK	L 1-2	40.5	1086	1270	20.79%	21.76%	57.45%	-1.14	-4.8	0
2014-03-08	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	40.5	1270	1086	57.45%	21.76%	20.79%	+1.14	+4.8	7
2014-03-08	Bala Town	L 1-2	43.0	1074	1187	28.32%	22.81%	48.87%	-0.59	-6.3	4
2014-03-08	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	43.0	1187	1074	48.87%	22.81%	28.32%	+0.59	+6.3	3
2014-03-08	Bangor City	W 4-1	33.5	1415	1197	67.78%	19.27%	12.96%	+1.95	+7.5	4
2014-03-08	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	33.5	1197	1415	12.96%	19.27%	67.78%	-1.95	-7.5	6
2014-03-08	Rhyl	W 2-1	48.1	1117	1200	32.00%	23.06%	44.94%	-0.36	+9.2	3
2014-03-08	@ Newtown	L 1-2	48.1	1200	1117	44.94%	23.06%	32.00%	+0.36	-9.2	6
2014-03-14	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	29.5	1193	973	68.07%	19.17%	12.76%	+1.98	+6.0	6
2014-03-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	29.5	973	1193	12.76%	19.17%	68.07%	-1.98	-6.0	7
2014-03-14	Port Talbot Town	L 2-8	32.2	873	1103	16.94%	20.78%	62.28%	-1.49	-15.1	0
2014-03-14	@ Afan Lido	W 8-2	32.2	1103	873	62.28%	20.78%	16.94%	+1.49	+15.1	6
2014-03-14	Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	30.2	1174	1068	56.84%	21.86%	21.30%	+1.10	+18.7	9
2014-03-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	30.2	1068	1174	21.30%	21.86%	56.84%	-1.10	-18.8	4
2014-03-15	Bangor City	D 1-1	52.7	1190	1190	43.59%	23.11%	33.29%	+0.28	-0.5	7
2014-03-15	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	52.7	1190	1190	33.29%	23.11%	43.59%	-0.28	+0.5	7
2014-03-15	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	24.5	1422	1081	77.04%	15.59%	7.37%	+2.90	+6.3	7
2014-03-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	24.5	1081	1422	7.37%	15.59%	77.04%	-2.90	-6.3	0
2014-03-15	Newtown	W 1-0	34.5	1275	1126	61.44%	20.97%	17.59%	+1.43	+4.4	10
2014-03-15	@ Airbus UK	L 0-1	34.5	1126	1275	17.59%	20.97%	61.44%	-1.43	-4.4	3
2014-03-21	Rhyl	W 2-1	41.4	1279	1190	54.94%	22.15%	22.91%	+0.97	+5.3	13
2014-03-21	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	41.4	1190	1279	22.91%	22.15%	54.94%	-0.97	-5.3	7
2014-03-22	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	42.8	967	1193	17.25%	20.88%	61.87%	-1.46	+35.1	10
2014-03-22	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	42.8	1193	967	61.87%	20.88%	17.25%	+1.46	-35.1	9
2014-03-22	Bala Town	L 0-5	25.7	858	1199	10.26%	17.79%	71.96%	-2.35	-11.1	0
2014-03-22	@ Afan Lido	W 5-0	25.7	1199	858	71.96%	17.79%	10.26%	+2.35	+11.1	9
2014-03-22	Bangor City	L 0-1	38.0	1075	1190	27.98%	22.78%	49.24%	-0.61	-6.7	0
2014-03-22	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	38.0	1190	1075	49.24%	22.78%	27.98%	+0.61	+6.6	10
2014-03-22	Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	34.2	1118	1049	52.52%	22.45%	25.02%	+0.81	+11.4	9
2014-03-22	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	34.2	1049	1118	25.02%	22.45%	52.52%	-0.81	-11.4	4
2014-03-22	The New Saints	L 1-2	37.5	1121	1428	11.99%	18.79%	69.22%	-2.08	-2.8	3
2014-03-22	@ Newtown	W 2-1	37.5	1428	1121	69.22%	18.79%	11.99%	+2.08	+2.8	10
2014-03-25	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	49.7	1211	1158	50.50%	22.67%	26.84%	+0.69	-10.1	9
2014-03-25	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	49.7	1158	1211	26.84%	22.67%	50.50%	-0.69	+10.1	12
2014-03-28	Afan Lido	W 7-1	27.3	1168	847	75.72%	16.20%	8.08%	+2.75	+8.4	15
2014-03-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-7	27.3	847	1168	8.08%	16.20%	75.72%	-2.75	-8.4	0
2014-03-28	Rhyl	W 2-1	37.6	1431	1185	70.21%	18.44%	11.35%	+2.18	+2.6	13
2014-03-28	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	37.6	1185	1431	11.35%	18.44%	70.21%	-2.18	-2.7	7
2014-03-29	Bangor City	L 0-1	45.7	1271	1197	53.08%	22.39%	24.53%	+0.85	-11.2	13
2014-03-29	@ Airbus UK	W 1-0	45.7	1197	1271	24.53%	22.39%	53.08%	-0.85	+11.2	13
2014-03-29	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.6	1038	1016	46.54%	22.97%	30.49%	+0.45	-0.7	5
2014-03-29	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.6	1016	1038	30.49%	22.97%	46.54%	-0.45	+0.7	11
2014-03-29	Newtown	W 6-1	39.5	1068	1119	36.41%	23.19%	40.40%	-0.11	+32.5	3
2014-03-29	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-6	39.5	1119	1068	40.40%	23.19%	36.41%	+0.11	-32.5	3
2014-03-29	Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	39.4	1200	1130	52.70%	22.43%	24.87%	+0.82	+9.8	12
2014-03-29	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	39.4	1130	1200	24.87%	22.43%	52.70%	-0.82	-9.8	9
2014-04-01	Newtown	W 3-1	32.4	1434	1086	77.49%	15.38%	7.14%	+2.95	+2.8	16
2014-04-01	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	32.4	1086	1434	7.14%	15.38%	77.49%	-2.95	-2.8	3
2014-04-07	Afan Lido	D 0-0	50.3	1120	838	72.92%	17.40%	9.67%	+2.45	-3.6	10
2014-04-07	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	50.3	838	1120	9.67%	17.40%	72.92%	-2.45	+3.6	1
2014-04-11	Bala Town	L 2-3	51.3	1176	1210	38.74%	23.21%	38.06%	+0.02	-7.7	15
2014-04-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	51.3	1210	1176	38.06%	23.21%	38.74%	-0.02	+7.7	15
2014-04-12	Afan Lido	W 4-0	27.4	1037	842	65.84%	19.85%	14.31%	+1.78	+12.8	8
2014-04-12	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-4	27.4	842	1037	14.31%	19.85%	65.84%	-1.78	-12.8	1
2014-04-12	Airbus UK	D 1-1	55.2	1437	1260	64.15%	20.32%	15.53%	+1.64	-2.4	17
2014-04-12	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.2	1260	1437	15.53%	20.32%	64.15%	-1.64	+2.4	14
2014-04-12	Bangor City	W 3-1	47.1	1083	1208	26.88%	22.67%	50.45%	-0.68	+17.5	6
2014-04-12	@ Newtown	L 1-3	47.1	1208	1083	50.45%	22.67%	26.88%	+0.68	-17.5	13
2014-04-12	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	41.0	1017	1116	29.86%	22.93%	47.22%	-0.49	+19.1	14
2014-04-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	41.0	1116	1017	47.22%	22.93%	29.86%	+0.49	-19.1	10
2014-04-12	Rhyl	W 2-1	48.0	1101	1182	32.22%	23.07%	44.71%	-0.35	+9.1	6
2014-04-12	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	48.0	1182	1101	44.71%	23.07%	32.22%	+0.35	-9.1	7
2014-04-15	Bala Town	D 1-1	53.0	1036	1218	20.96%	21.79%	57.24%	-1.12	+1.8	15
2014-04-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	53.0	1218	1036	57.24%	21.79%	20.96%	+1.12	-1.8	16
2014-04-18	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.6	1097	1169	33.56%	23.12%	43.32%	-0.27	+0.4	11
2014-04-18	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.6	1169	1097	43.32%	23.12%	33.56%	+0.27	-0.5	16
2014-04-18	Newtown	L 0-3	40.6	1173	1101	52.90%	22.41%	24.69%	+0.83	-30.6	7
2014-04-18	@ Rhyl	W 3-0	40.6	1101	1173	24.69%	22.41%	52.90%	-0.83	+30.6	9
2014-04-18	Prestatyn Town	L 2-4	54.4	1216	1050	63.11%	20.58%	16.31%	+1.56	-19.1	16
2014-04-18	@ Bala Town	W 4-2	54.4	1050	1216	16.31%	20.58%	63.11%	-1.56	+19.1	11
2014-04-18	The New Saints	L 1-9	31.9	1191	1434	15.97%	20.47%	63.55%	-1.59	-22.6	13
2014-04-18	@ Bangor City	W 9-1	31.9	1434	1191	63.55%	20.47%	15.97%	+1.59	+22.6	20
2014-04-19	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	52.5	1262	1110	61.72%	20.91%	17.37%	+1.45	-12.1	14
2014-04-19	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	52.5	1110	1262	17.37%	20.91%	61.72%	-1.45	+12.1	9
2014-04-21	Afan Lido	W 6-0	24.3	1197	829	78.74%	14.76%	6.50%	+3.11	+8.0	19
2014-04-21	@ Bala Town	L 0-6	24.3	829	1197	6.50%	14.76%	78.74%	-3.11	-8.0	1
2014-04-21	Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	38.3	1131	1122	44.80%	23.06%	32.13%	+0.35	-26.5	9
2014-04-21	@ Newtown	W 3-0	38.3	1122	1131	32.13%	23.06%	44.80%	-0.35	+26.5	12
2014-04-21	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.9	1142	1457	11.60%	18.58%	69.82%	-2.14	-5.4	7
2014-04-21	@ Rhyl	W 2-0	29.9	1457	1142	69.82%	18.58%	11.60%	+2.14	+5.4	23
2014-04-22	Port Talbot Town	W 6-1	34.7	1168	1098	52.67%	22.44%	24.90%	+0.82	+22.0	19
2014-04-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-6	34.7	1098	1168	24.90%	22.44%	52.67%	-0.82	-22.0	11
2014-04-26	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.8	1069	1190	27.34%	22.72%	49.94%	-0.65	-6.5	11
2014-04-26	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	37.8	1190	1069	49.94%	22.72%	27.34%	+0.65	+6.5	22
2014-04-26	Airbus UK	D 1-1	52.9	1105	1250	24.66%	22.41%	52.93%	-0.84	+1.3	10
2014-04-26	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.9	1250	1105	52.93%	22.41%	24.66%	+0.84	-1.3	15
2014-04-26	Bala Town	W 2-1	49.7	1076	1205	26.40%	22.62%	50.98%	-0.71	+10.2	14
2014-04-26	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	49.7	1205	1076	50.98%	22.62%	26.40%	+0.71	-10.2	19
2014-04-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-8	31.6	821	1037	18.05%	21.10%	60.85%	-1.38	-22.4	1
2014-04-26	@ Afan Lido	W 8-1	31.6	1037	821	60.85%	21.10%	18.05%	+1.38	+22.4	18
2014-04-26	Rhyl	W 2-0	35.7	1168	1137	47.73%	22.89%	29.37%	+0.52	+13.0	16
2014-04-26	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	35.7	1137	1168	29.37%	22.89%	47.73%	-0.52	-13.0	7
2014-04-29	The New Saints	W 1-0	50.3	1149	1462	11.64%	18.60%	69.77%	-2.13	+14.2	15
2014-04-29	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	50.3	1462	1149	69.77%	18.60%	11.64%	+2.13	-14.2	23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2014-03-25	9.62%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1002	2	@ Airbus UK	1285	1
2	2014-04-29	11.64%	@ Carmarthen Town	1149	1	The New Saints	1462	0
3	2013-12-26	13.22%	@ Newtown	1138	1	The New Saints	1423	0
4	2013-08-26	14.84%	@ Prestatyn Town	1089	1	The New Saints	1349	0
5	2014-02-22	16.10%	Connah's Quay Nomads	947	2	@ Port Talbot Town	1116	1
6	2014-04-18	16.31%	Prestatyn Town	1050	4	@ Bala Town	1216	2
7	2014-03-22	17.25%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	967	3	Aberystwyth Town	1193	0
8	2014-04-19	17.37%	Carmarthen Town	1110	2	@ Airbus UK	1262	1
9	2013-08-30	18.41%	Newtown	1041	1	@ Rhyl	1180	0
10	2013-11-09	18.59%	Afan Lido	945	2	@ Prestatyn Town	1082	1
11	2013-08-24	19.61%	Aberystwyth Town	1079	3	@ Rhyl	1204	0
12	2013-11-08	20.71%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1098	2	Airbus UK	1283	1
13	2013-11-15	22.52%	Bangor City	1178	1	@ Airbus UK	1271	0
14	2013-08-30	23.57%	Prestatyn Town	1102	1	@ Bangor City	1185	0
15	2013-11-30	23.76%	@ Afan Lido	965	2	Aberystwyth Town	1118	1
16	2013-09-28	24.39%	Newtown	1033	1	@ Port Talbot Town	1108	0
17	2014-03-29	24.53%	Bangor City	1197	1	@ Airbus UK	1271	0
18	2014-04-18	24.69%	Newtown	1101	3	@ Rhyl	1173	0
19	2013-08-23	25.08%	@ Prestatyn Town	1063	4	Bala Town	1204	1
20	2014-04-26	26.40%	@ Port Talbot Town	1076	2	Bala Town	1205	1
21	2013-11-09	26.75%	Carmarthen Town	1135	1	@ Bangor City	1189	0
22	2013-11-30	26.76%	Newtown	1100	2	@ Carmarthen Town	1153	0
23	2014-03-25	26.84%	Aberystwyth Town	1158	2	@ Bala Town	1211	1
24	2014-04-12	26.88%	@ Newtown	1083	3	Bangor City	1208	1
25	2013-10-19	28.04%	Carmarthen Town	1121	4	@ Bala Town	1164	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2014-03-22	35.14	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	967	17.25%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1193	61.87%	20.88%
2	2013-08-26	34.32	Carmarthen Town	4	1069	32.64%	@ Newtown	0	1075	44.27%	23.09%
3	2013-11-08	34.25	Newtown	4	1071	32.74%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1076	44.16%	23.09%
4	2013-08-24	33.63	Aberystwyth Town	3	1079	19.61%	@ Rhyl	0	1204	58.89%	21.50%
5	2014-03-29	32.55	@ Carmarthen Town	6	1068	36.41%	Newtown	1	1119	40.40%	23.19%
6	2013-12-13	30.91	@ Bala Town	7	1124	57.59%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1011	20.68%	21.73%
7	2014-04-18	30.56	Newtown	3	1101	24.69%	@ Rhyl	0	1173	52.90%	22.41%
8	2014-04-21	26.53	Carmarthen Town	3	1122	32.13%	@ Newtown	0	1131	44.80%	23.06%
9	2014-01-25	26.43	Aberystwyth Town	3	1122	32.32%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1130	44.60%	23.07%
10	2013-08-23	25.59	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1063	25.08%	Bala Town	1	1204	52.46%	22.46%
11	2014-01-04	23.38	Aberystwyth Town	4	1098	49.86%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	978	27.42%	22.73%
12	2013-09-07	23.22	@ Port Talbot Town	3	1097	38.92%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1130	37.87%	23.21%
13	2014-02-18	22.58	Aberystwyth Town	6	1148	61.81%	@ Afan Lido	0	923	17.30%	20.89%
14	2014-04-18	22.58	The New Saints	9	1434	63.55%	@ Bangor City	1	1191	15.97%	20.47%
15	2014-04-26	22.40	Connah's Quay Nomads	8	1037	60.85%	@ Afan Lido	1	821	18.05%	21.10%
16	2014-04-22	21.98	@ Aberystwyth Town	6	1168	52.67%	Port Talbot Town	1	1098	24.90%	22.44%
17	2013-11-30	20.24	Newtown	2	1100	26.76%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1153	50.58%	22.66%
18	2014-01-18	19.46	@ Prestatyn Town	5	1058	31.91%	Newtown	2	1142	45.04%	23.05%
19	2014-02-17	19.28	@ Rhyl	2	1172	29.31%	Airbus UK	0	1277	47.80%	22.89%
20	2014-04-18	19.08	Prestatyn Town	4	1050	16.31%	@ Bala Town	2	1216	63.11%	20.58%
21	2014-04-12	19.08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1017	29.86%	Port Talbot Town	0	1116	47.22%	22.93%
22	2014-03-14	18.75	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1174	56.84%	Prestatyn Town	0	1068	21.30%	21.86%
23	2013-08-24	18.20	@ The New Saints	6	1330	66.40%	Port Talbot Town	0	1129	13.91%	19.69%
24	2014-04-12	17.49	@ Newtown	3	1083	26.88%	Bangor City	1	1208	50.45%	22.67%
25	2013-12-14	16.94	@ Newtown	2	1120	36.02%	Rhyl	0	1173	40.80%	23.19%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-10-12	64.1	@ Carmarthen Town	4	1121	35.79%	Bangor City	4	1176	41.03%	23.18%
2	2013-09-21	62.0	@ Newtown	3	1034	51.63%	Afan Lido	3	972	25.82%	22.55%
3	2013-10-18	62.0	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1098	50.52%	Newtown	3	1045	26.82%	22.66%
4	2014-01-18	62.0	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1122	33.42%	Bangor City	3	1194	43.46%	23.12%
5	2013-09-21	61.9	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1114	46.15%	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1095	30.86%	22.99%
6	2013-10-05	61.9	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1121	45.84%	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1104	31.15%	23.01%
7	2013-08-30	58.6	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1128	18.81%	The New Saints	2	1335	59.89%	21.30%
8	2013-11-26	58.3	@ Airbus UK	2	1267	55.56%	Rhyl	2	1172	22.38%	22.06%
9	2013-10-25	58.2	@ Afan Lido	2	952	20.81%	Carmarthen Town	2	1136	57.44%	21.76%
10	2013-12-21	58.2	@ Newtown	2	1137	25.50%	Airbus UK	2	1274	51.99%	22.51%
11	2014-01-05	58.2	@ Afan Lido	2	953	20.22%	Newtown	2	1144	58.15%	21.63%
12	2013-09-14	58.0	@ Rhyl	2	1158	32.29%	Airbus UK	2	1239	44.64%	23.07%
13	2013-10-25	57.8	@ Prestatyn Town	2	1089	42.41%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1097	34.43%	23.15%
14	2013-12-20	57.8	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	981	31.26%	Prestatyn Town	2	1069	45.72%	23.02%
15	2014-04-12	55.2	@ The New Saints	1	1437	64.15%	Airbus UK	1	1260	15.53%	20.32%
16	2013-12-20	55.0	@ The New Saints	1	1426	72.12%	Bala Town	1	1155	10.16%	17.72%
17	2014-01-18	55.0	@ The New Saints	1	1418	60.89%	Airbus UK	1	1274	18.02%	21.10%
18	2014-03-25	54.8	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1002	9.62%	@ Airbus UK	1	1285	73.02%	17.37%
19	2014-02-22	54.4	@ Airbus UK	1	1257	23.23%	The New Saints	1	1416	54.57%	22.20%
20	2014-04-18	54.4	Prestatyn Town	4	1050	16.31%	@ Bala Town	2	1216	63.11%	20.58%
21	2013-10-05	53.9	@ Airbus UK	1	1257	27.25%	The New Saints	1	1379	50.05%	22.71%
22	2013-08-26	53.6	Rhyl	3	1171	30.33%	@ Bangor City	2	1194	46.71%	22.96%
23	2014-01-04	53.1	@ Port Talbot Town	1	1098	21.36%	Airbus UK	1	1276	56.77%	21.87%
24	2014-04-15	53.0	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1036	20.96%	Bala Town	1	1218	57.24%	21.79%
25	2014-04-26	52.9	@ Newtown	1	1105	24.66%	Airbus UK	1	1250	52.93%	22.41%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-10-19	23.3	@ The New Saints	3	1387	82.35%	Afan Lido	0	955	4.82%	12.83%
2	2014-04-21	24.3	@ Bala Town	6	1197	78.74%	Afan Lido	0	829	6.50%	14.76%
3	2014-03-15	24.5	@ The New Saints	4	1422	77.04%	Carmarthen Town	0	1081	7.37%	15.59%
4	2013-11-30	25.2	@ The New Saints	3	1414	77.06%	Prestatyn Town	0	1073	7.36%	15.58%
5	2013-12-13	25.2	@ The New Saints	4	1419	75.04%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1108	8.45%	16.51%
6	2013-10-25	25.6	@ The New Saints	5	1390	73.62%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1099	9.27%	17.12%
7	2014-03-22	25.7	Bala Town	5	1199	71.96%	@ Afan Lido	0	858	10.26%	17.79%
8	2014-03-28	27.3	@ Aberystwyth Town	7	1168	75.72%	Afan Lido	1	847	8.08%	16.20%
9	2014-04-12	27.4	@ Prestatyn Town	4	1037	65.84%	Afan Lido	0	842	14.31%	19.85%
10	2013-11-02	27.5	@ Rhyl	3	1176	68.23%	Afan Lido	0	954	12.65%	19.12%
11	2013-09-28	27.8	@ The New Saints	6	1363	68.44%	Carmarthen Town	0	1138	12.51%	19.05%
12	2013-12-14	27.8	@ Airbus UK	2	1270	73.86%	Afan Lido	0	975	9.12%	17.01%
13	2013-08-24	28.3	@ The New Saints	6	1330	66.40%	Port Talbot Town	0	1129	13.91%	19.69%
14	2013-11-08	28.5	@ The New Saints	3	1400	67.58%	Rhyl	0	1185	13.09%	19.33%
15	2013-09-13	28.8	The New Saints	4	1340	62.26%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1110	16.96%	20.79%
16	2014-02-18	29.4	Aberystwyth Town	6	1148	61.81%	@ Afan Lido	0	923	17.30%	20.89%
17	2014-03-14	29.5	@ Bala Town	2	1193	68.07%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	973	12.76%	19.17%
18	2013-09-14	29.7	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1125	60.63%	Afan Lido	0	984	18.22%	21.15%
19	2014-04-21	29.9	The New Saints	2	1457	69.82%	@ Rhyl	0	1142	11.60%	18.58%
20	2014-03-14	30.2	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1174	56.84%	Prestatyn Town	0	1068	21.30%	21.86%
21	2013-09-29	30.3	Rhyl	3	1168	58.69%	@ Afan Lido	0	972	19.78%	21.54%
22	2013-11-02	30.6	@ Airbus UK	2	1276	65.05%	Prestatyn Town	0	1089	14.87%	20.08%
23	2014-01-01	30.6	@ The New Saints	5	1409	71.10%	Newtown	1	1151	10.79%	18.11%
24	2013-09-21	30.7	@ Airbus UK	3	1238	58.04%	Port Talbot Town	0	1122	20.31%	21.65%
25	2013-09-07	31.0	Bangor City	3	1174	56.42%	@ Afan Lido	0	999	21.65%	21.92%