2014-15 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

77 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rhyl

4.49 points above expected

42 points · 37.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Prestatyn Town

5.70 points below expected

18 points · 23.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	17	5	0	56	64	16	+48	50.06	+5.94
2	Aberystwyth Town	22	12	6	4	42	49	35	+14	36.33	+5.67
3	Bala Town	22	13	2	7	41	47	28	+19	36.08	+4.92
4	Airbus UK	22	12	4	6	40	41	22	+19	39.93	+0.07
5	Port Talbot Town	22	10	3	9	33	40	33	+7	29.69	+3.31
6	Newtown	22	9	5	8	32	40	38	+2	28.54	+3.46
7	Carmarthen Town	22	9	4	9	31	31	40	-9	30.62	+0.38
8	Rhyl	22	5	7	10	22	23	36	-13	27.42	-5.42
9	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	5	7	10	22	26	40	-14	25.30	-3.30
10	Cefn Druids	22	6	4	12	22	29	47	-18	15.93	+6.07
11	Bangor City	22	3	5	14	14	23	48	-25	26.97	-12.97
12	Prestatyn Town	22	3	4	15	13	31	61	-30	20.22	-7.22

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	23	8	1	77	90	24	+66	77.92	-0.92
2	Bala Town	32	18	5	9	59	67	42	+25	56.02	+2.98
3	Airbus UK	32	18	4	10	58	62	34	+28	55.72	+2.28
4	Aberystwyth Town	32	14	10	8	52	69	61	+8	52.67	-0.67
5	Port Talbot Town	32	13	4	15	43	54	59	-5	44.19	-1.19
6	Newtown	32	10	8	14	38	52	65	-13	41.08	-3.08

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	11	10	11	43	44	53	-9	45.66	-2.66
2	Rhyl	32	11	9	12	42	41	49	-8	37.51	+4.49
3	Carmarthen Town	32	12	6	14	42	48	57	-9	39.60	+2.40
4	Bangor City	32	9	8	15	35	48	62	-14	36.52	-1.52
5	Cefn Druids	32	7	6	19	27	38	64	-26	24.28	+2.72
6	Prestatyn Town	32	4	6	22	18	43	86	-43	23.70	-5.70

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rhyl	42	37.51	+4.49
2	Bala Town	59	56.02	+2.98
3	Cefn Druids	27	24.28	+2.72
4	Carmarthen Town	42	39.60	+2.40
5	Airbus UK	58	55.72	+2.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Prestatyn Town	18	23.70	-5.70
2	Newtown	38	41.08	-3.08
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	43	45.66	-2.66
4	Bangor City	35	36.52	-1.52
5	Port Talbot Town	43	44.19	-1.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cefn Druids	2	Sep 27 – Oct 4	1 in 74
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	Mar 28 – Apr 26	1 in 51
3	Bala Town	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 19
4	Airbus UK	4	Aug 29 – Sep 21	1 in 12
5	The New Saints	8	Dec 5 – Jan 31	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor City	4	Oct 4 – Oct 24	1 in 134
2	Airbus UK	2	Sep 27 – Oct 4	1 in 26
3	Bala Town	3	Sep 19 – Oct 3	1 in 18
4	Aberystwyth Town	2	Oct 18 – Oct 24	1 in 15
5	Newtown	3	Oct 18 – Oct 31	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	30	Aug 22 – Apr 10	1 in 48
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	7	Oct 18 – Nov 21	1 in 38
3	Newtown	6	Sep 6 – Oct 12	1 in 34
4	Bangor City	8	Jan 24 – Mar 28	1 in 34
5	Aberystwyth Town	7	Aug 22 – Sep 26	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor City	10	Aug 22 – Oct 24	1 in 211
2	Prestatyn Town	15	Nov 21 – Mar 28	1 in 44
3	The New Saints	3	Apr 10 – Apr 26	1 in 26
4	Aberystwyth Town	8	Feb 14 – Apr 17	1 in 21
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	8	Aug 22 – Oct 11	1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1401	77	-11	8	11.4	-3.4
Bala Town	1207	59	+30	10	7.9	+2.1
Airbus UK	1213	58	+5	9	7.5	+1.5
Aberystwyth Town	1113	52	-9	5	5.8	-0.8
Connah's Quay Nomads	1003	43	+14	12	7.4	+4.6
Port Talbot Town	1083	43	+0	6	5.3	+0.7
Rhyl	1020	42	+8	9	8.1	+0.9
Carmarthen Town	1010	42	-18	6	8.2	-2.2
Newtown	997	38	-15	4	3.9	+0.1
Bangor City	1026	35	+26	12	8.2	+3.8
Cefn Druids	849	27	-11	3	5.3	-2.3
Prestatyn Town	837	18	-20	3	4.4	-1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AU	BT	BC	CT	CD	CQN	NEW	PTT	PT	RHY	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	1-1-2 4.80	1-1-2 5.00	0-2-0 3.52	2-0-0 3.24	2-0-0 4.38	1-1-0 3.78	2-1-1 6.98	2-1-1 6.40	1-0-1 4.36	2-0-0 3.55	0-3-1 2.54
Airbus UK	2-1-1 6.28	—	1-1-2 5.83	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 3.63	0-1-1 4.71	2-0-0 4.01	3-0-1 7.60	2-0-2 7.25	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 3.95	1-1-2 2.96
Bala Town	2-1-1 6.08	2-1-1 5.24	—	2-0-0 4.08	2-0-0 3.30	2-0-0 4.59	1-0-1 3.97	2-1-1 7.50	3-0-1 6.89	1-1-0 3.99	1-0-1 3.66	0-1-3 2.92
Bangor City	0-2-0 2.03	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 1.50	—	2-1-1 4.84	2-1-1 7.35	0-1-3 5.88	0-0-2 2.77	1-0-1 2.23	3-1-0 7.12	1-2-1 5.51	0-0-2 1.16
Carmarthen Town	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 1.93	0-0-2 2.24	1-1-2 6.24	—	4-0-0 7.93	0-2-2 6.38	1-1-0 2.73	1-0-1 2.86	3-1-0 7.53	1-1-2 6.05	0-0-2 1.04
Cefn Druids	0-0-2 1.23	1-1-0 0.94	0-0-2 1.04	1-1-2 3.77	0-0-4 3.22	—	2-2-0 3.58	0-0-2 1.55	1-0-1 1.43	2-1-1 4.98	0-1-3 3.37	0-0-2 0.53
Connah's Quay Nomads	0-1-1 1.78	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 1.61	3-1-0 5.20	2-2-0 4.70	0-2-2 7.54	—	1-0-1 2.10	0-2-0 2.15	3-0-1 6.88	1-2-1 5.04	0-0-2 0.94
Newtown	1-1-2 4.12	1-0-3 3.53	1-1-2 3.64	2-0-0 2.77	0-1-1 2.81	2-0-0 4.03	1-0-1 3.45	—	0-1-3 4.87	1-1-0 3.54	1-1-0 3.05	0-2-2 1.86
Port Talbot Town	1-1-2 4.69	2-0-2 3.85	1-0-3 4.21	1-0-1 3.32	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 4.15	0-2-0 3.40	3-1-0 6.21	—	1-0-1 3.51	2-0-0 2.80	0-0-4 2.11
Prestatyn Town	1-0-1 1.25	0-0-2 1.40	0-1-1 1.60	0-1-3 3.99	0-1-3 3.59	1-1-2 6.11	1-0-3 4.23	0-1-1 2.01	1-0-1 2.04	—	0-1-3 3.78	0-0-2 0.61
Rhyl	0-0-2 2.01	0-0-2 1.62	1-0-1 1.89	1-2-1 5.56	2-1-1 5.02	3-1-0 7.77	1-2-1 6.03	0-1-1 2.49	0-0-2 2.74	3-1-0 7.33	—	0-1-1 1.02
The New Saints	1-3-0 8.68	2-1-1 8.20	3-1-0 8.25	2-0-0 4.45	2-0-0 4.60	2-0-0 5.22	2-0-0 4.72	2-2-0 9.46	4-0-0 9.15	2-0-0 5.12	1-1-0 4.61	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.79	+9.2
Allowed	0.85	-8.9
Differential	0.97	+5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.08%	4.95%	4.69%	3.39%	2.08%	1.30%	18.49%
1	4.95%	11.98%	8.85%	5.47%	1.04%	1.56%	33.85%
2	4.69%	8.85%	3.65%	2.60%	1.04%	0.26%	21.09%
3	3.39%	5.47%	2.60%	4.17%	1.04%	0.78%	17.45%
4	2.08%	1.04%	1.04%	1.04%	—	—	5.21%
5+	1.30%	1.56%	0.26%	0.78%	—	—	3.91%
Total	18.49%	33.85%	21.09%	17.45%	5.21%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.71	1.71	+0.00
SD	1.38	1.38	2.09
CV	0.81	0.81	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	9.38%
1	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
2	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	25.00%
4	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	15.62%	28.12%	21.88%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.16	1.91	+0.25
SD	1.37	1.40	2.02
CV	0.64	0.73	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
1	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	21.88%
2	9.38%	15.62%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
3	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	31.25%	40.62%	18.75%	9.38%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.06	+0.88
SD	1.54	0.95	2.06
CV	0.80	0.89	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
3	9.38%	9.38%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	28.12%
4	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.31	+0.78
SD	1.73	1.18	2.22
CV	0.83	0.90	—
Max	8	4	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	3.12%	—	9.38%	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
Total	15.62%	21.88%	28.12%	28.12%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.94	-0.44
SD	1.37	1.32	1.90
CV	0.91	0.68	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	40.62%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	—	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	18.75%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	9.38%	46.88%	21.88%	15.62%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.78	-0.28
SD	1.19	1.56	1.97
CV	0.79	0.88	—
Max	5	8	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	12.50%	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
2	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
3	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	2.00	-0.81
SD	1.09	1.44	1.84
CV	0.92	0.72	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	28.12%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	40.62%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	28.12%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	50.00%	9.38%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.66	-0.28
SD	1.01	1.29	1.59
CV	0.73	0.78	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	31.25%
2	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	25.00%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	28.12%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	2.03	-0.41
SD	1.41	1.36	1.85
CV	0.87	0.67	—
Max	6	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	6.25%	12.50%
1	3.12%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	43.75%
2	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
3	12.50%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	15.62%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.69	1.84	-0.16
SD	1.20	1.71	2.57
CV	0.71	0.93	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	15.62%
1	3.12%	6.25%	15.62%	25.00%	—	—	50.00%
2	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	—	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	12.50%	28.12%	34.38%	15.62%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	2.69	-1.34
SD	0.94	1.26	1.60
CV	0.70	0.47	—
Max	3	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
1	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	34.38%
2	—	18.75%	9.38%	—	—	—	28.12%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.38%	53.12%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.53	-0.25
SD	0.99	1.19	1.50
CV	0.77	0.78	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
1	3.12%	15.62%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
2	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
4	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	43.75%	40.62%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.81	0.75	+2.06
SD	1.69	0.80	1.92
CV	0.60	1.07	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1401	77	50.06	+26.94	90.0%	33	40	47	50	53	57	61
Airbus UK	1213	58	39.93	+18.07	55.0%	26	29	37	40	44	49	54
Bala Town	1207	59	36.08	+22.92	84.0%	24	26	32	36	39	46	50
Aberystwyth Town	1113	52	36.33	+15.67	84.0%	23	27	31	36	41	46	58
Port Talbot Town	1083	43	29.69	+13.31	76.0%	18	19	27	30	33	37	43
Bangor City	1026	35	26.97	+8.03	1.0%	12	17	23	27	30	36	40
Rhyl	1020	42	27.42	+14.58	15.0%	12	19	24	27	31	36	40
Carmarthen Town	1010	42	30.62	+11.38	59.0%	19	21	27	29	35	40	44
Connah's Quay Nomads	1003	43	25.30	+17.70	29.0%	11	16	22	25	29	35	44
Newtown	997	38	28.54	+9.46	78.0%	13	19	25	28	32	38	44
Cefn Druids	849	27	15.93	+11.07	92.0%	5	8	13	15	20	25	28
Prestatyn Town	837	18	20.22	-2.22	12.0%	7	10	17	20	24	30	33

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+9.38%

Clear Edge

43.75%21.88%34.38%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 32.67 Elo pts.

148 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.33 goals

Neutral

-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.3

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

88%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.56/gm

Runaway

00.250.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.5 * Some Luck: 4.5 to 6.75 * Lucky: 6.75 to 9.01 * Wild Swing: 9.01 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.47 * Way Off: 2.47 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.86 points

Some Luck

05.6314

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

01.544

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

92.00%

Cefn Druids

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

1.00%

Bangor City

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 140.21

2.05

Moderate Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

73%

Clear Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

95%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Some Drama

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Rare

0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.56

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.14

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.73

Near-Lock

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Shaky Favorites

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.68

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.110

Well Within Noise

00.1250.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	88.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	4.00%	16.00%	19.00%	30.00%	9.00%	11.00%	3.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—	—	—
Airbus UK	3.00%	49.00%	25.00%	9.00%	7.00%	2.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Aberystwyth Town	4.00%	17.00%	22.00%	14.00%	13.00%	13.00%	7.00%	8.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Port Talbot Town	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	11.00%	22.00%	16.00%	11.00%	11.00%	6.00%	9.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Newtown	—	3.00%	7.00%	7.00%	13.00%	11.00%	18.00%	12.00%	15.00%	12.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	5.00%	10.00%	9.00%	12.00%	18.00%	15.00%	17.00%	7.00%
Rhyl	—	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	13.00%	14.00%	14.00%	15.00%	14.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	2.00%	11.00%	13.00%	12.00%	11.00%	16.00%	11.00%	13.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—
Bangor City	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	10.00%	11.00%	14.00%	15.00%	13.00%	14.00%	11.00%	5.00%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	11.00%	23.00%	60.00%
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	11.00%	18.00%	33.00%	23.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	99.88%	0.11%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	0.05%	44.16%	33.45%	18.47%	3.50%	0.37%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	0.06%	38.28%	35.66%	21.31%	4.21%	0.48%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Aberystwyth Town	0.01%	16.67%	26.70%	43.99%	10.90%	1.73%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Port Talbot Town	—	0.65%	3.28%	11.82%	54.86%	29.39%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	0.13%	0.90%	4.41%	26.53%	68.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	—	—	—	—	69.32%	20.46%	7.83%	2.34%	0.05%	—
Rhyl	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.32%	25.55%	32.01%	28.74%	3.82%	0.56%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.28%	35.72%	28.19%	18.80%	1.83%	0.18%
Bangor City	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.07%	17.98%	29.57%	39.44%	6.19%	0.75%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.18%	1.27%	5.94%	48.72%	43.88%
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.11%	1.13%	4.74%	39.39%	54.63%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Aberystwyth Town	100%	—
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bala Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Port Talbot Town	98.00%	2.00%
Carmarthen Town	97.00%	3.00%
Newtown	97.00%	3.00%
Bangor City	89.00%	11.00%
Rhyl	89.00%	11.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	79.00%	21.00%
Prestatyn Town	39.00%	61.00%
Cefn Druids	12.00%	88.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Aberystwyth Town	100%	—
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bala Town	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
Port Talbot Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	99.95%	0.05%
Carmarthen Town	97.99%	2.01%
Rhyl	95.62%	4.38%
Bangor City	93.06%	6.94%
Cefn Druids	7.40%	92.60%
Prestatyn Town	5.98%	94.02%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2014-08-22	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-5	27.1	843	1104	14.55%	19.88%	65.57%	-1.54	-15.7	0
2014-08-22	@ Cefn Druids	W 5-0	27.1	1104	843	65.57%	19.88%	14.55%	+1.54	+15.7	3
2014-08-22	Bangor City	W 2-0	29.8	1279	1088	65.12%	20.01%	14.87%	+1.51	+6.9	3
2014-08-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	29.8	1088	1279	14.87%	20.01%	65.12%	-1.51	-6.9	0
2014-08-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	49.7	1007	1005	43.29%	23.12%	33.59%	+0.23	+6.8	3
2014-08-22	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-3	49.7	1005	1007	33.59%	23.12%	43.29%	-0.23	-6.8	0
2014-08-23	Bala Town	L 1-2	44.2	1038	1105	33.54%	23.12%	43.33%	-0.24	-7.1	0
2014-08-23	@ Newtown	W 2-1	44.2	1105	1038	43.33%	23.12%	33.54%	+0.24	+7.1	3
2014-08-23	Rhyl	W 1-0	38.4	1077	1052	46.45%	22.97%	30.57%	+0.39	+7.0	3
2014-08-23	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	38.4	1052	1077	30.57%	22.97%	46.45%	-0.39	-7.0	0
2014-08-25	Airbus UK	D 0-0	48.5	1112	1135	39.77%	23.20%	37.03%	+0.06	-0.1	4
2014-08-25	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	48.5	1135	1112	37.03%	23.20%	39.77%	-0.06	+0.1	1
2014-08-25	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.2	999	1084	31.22%	23.01%	45.77%	-0.36	+0.6	1
2014-08-25	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	1084	999	45.77%	23.01%	31.22%	+0.36	-0.7	4
2014-08-25	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.3	1045	827	67.55%	19.28%	13.17%	+1.69	-2.7	1
2014-08-25	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	53.3	827	1045	13.17%	19.28%	67.55%	-1.69	+2.7	1
2014-08-25	Newtown	L 1-3	46.5	1082	1031	49.83%	22.72%	27.45%	+0.57	-16.9	0
2014-08-25	@ Bangor City	W 3-1	46.5	1031	1082	27.45%	22.72%	49.83%	-0.57	+16.9	3
2014-08-25	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	33.7	1024	1014	44.42%	23.08%	32.50%	+0.29	+20.2	3
2014-08-25	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	33.7	1014	1024	32.50%	23.08%	44.42%	-0.29	-20.2	3
2014-08-25	The New Saints	D 1-1	52.8	1120	1286	22.14%	21.99%	55.88%	-0.90	+1.6	4
2014-08-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.8	1286	1120	55.88%	21.99%	22.14%	+0.90	-1.6	4
2014-08-29	Bangor City	D 3-3	62.5	1121	1065	50.51%	22.65%	26.83%	+0.60	-0.7	5
2014-08-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	62.5	1065	1121	26.83%	22.65%	50.51%	-0.60	+0.7	1
2014-08-29	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	56.1	830	999	21.85%	21.93%	56.22%	-0.92	+10.3	4
2014-08-29	@ Cefn Druids	L 2-3	56.1	999	830	56.22%	21.93%	21.85%	+0.92	-10.3	1
2014-08-29	Newtown	W 3-0	30.7	1136	1047	54.37%	22.20%	23.42%	+0.82	+15.3	4
2014-08-29	@ Airbus UK	L 0-3	30.7	1047	1136	23.42%	22.20%	54.37%	-0.82	-15.3	3
2014-08-29	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	42.7	1084	1044	48.28%	22.85%	28.87%	+0.48	+6.3	7
2014-08-29	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	42.7	1044	1084	28.87%	22.85%	48.28%	-0.48	-6.3	3
2014-08-29	Rhyl	W 6-1	29.4	1284	1042	69.61%	18.59%	11.80%	+1.86	+10.5	7
2014-08-29	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	29.4	1042	1284	11.80%	18.59%	69.61%	-1.86	-10.5	1
2014-08-30	Bala Town	D 3-3	62.5	994	1112	27.24%	22.70%	50.06%	-0.58	+0.6	4
2014-08-30	@ Prestatyn Town	D 3-3	62.5	1112	994	50.06%	22.70%	27.24%	+0.58	-0.7	5
2014-09-05	Airbus UK	L 1-2	43.5	1065	1151	31.20%	23.01%	45.79%	-0.36	-6.7	1
2014-09-05	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	43.5	1151	1065	45.79%	23.01%	31.20%	+0.36	+6.7	7
2014-09-05	The New Saints	L 1-5	30.2	989	1295	11.89%	18.64%	69.48%	-1.84	-8.6	1
2014-09-05	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 5-1	30.2	1295	989	69.48%	18.64%	11.89%	+1.84	+8.6	10
2014-09-06	Cefn Druids	W 4-1	32.7	1038	840	65.79%	19.82%	14.39%	+1.56	+8.1	6
2014-09-06	@ Port Talbot Town	L 1-4	32.7	840	1038	14.39%	19.82%	65.79%	-1.56	-8.1	4
2014-09-06	Prestatyn Town	W 4-3	51.6	1032	995	48.08%	22.86%	29.06%	+0.47	+5.9	6
2014-09-06	@ Newtown	L 3-4	51.6	995	1032	29.06%	22.86%	48.08%	-0.47	-5.9	4
2014-09-07	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	38.5	1032	1120	30.82%	22.99%	46.20%	-0.38	-7.0	1
2014-09-07	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	38.5	1120	1032	46.20%	22.99%	30.82%	+0.38	+7.0	8
2014-09-07	Carmarthen Town	W 8-1	36.1	1112	1090	45.99%	23.00%	31.01%	+0.37	+35.4	8
2014-09-07	@ Bala Town	L 1-8	36.1	1090	1112	31.01%	23.00%	45.99%	-0.37	-35.3	7
2014-09-12	Bala Town	L 0-1	31.3	832	1147	11.41%	18.37%	70.22%	-1.91	-2.8	4
2014-09-12	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	31.3	1147	832	70.22%	18.37%	11.41%	+1.91	+2.8	11
2014-09-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.8	1128	980	60.87%	21.06%	18.07%	+1.21	-2.1	9
2014-09-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.8	980	1128	18.07%	21.06%	60.87%	-1.21	+2.1	2
2014-09-13	Airbus UK	L 0-2	32.3	989	1158	21.91%	21.94%	56.15%	-0.92	-9.9	4
2014-09-13	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	32.3	1158	989	56.15%	21.94%	21.91%	+0.92	+9.9	10
2014-09-13	Newtown	D 1-1	52.2	1054	1038	45.27%	23.04%	31.69%	+0.33	-0.6	8
2014-09-13	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.2	1038	1054	31.69%	23.04%	45.27%	-0.33	+0.6	7
2014-09-13	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	28.0	1303	1046	70.83%	18.15%	11.02%	+1.96	+5.0	13
2014-09-13	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	28.0	1046	1303	11.02%	18.15%	70.83%	-1.96	-5.0	6
2014-09-14	Bangor City	W 3-2	51.2	1025	1059	38.23%	23.21%	38.56%	-0.01	+7.5	4
2014-09-14	@ Rhyl	L 2-3	51.2	1059	1025	38.56%	23.21%	38.23%	+0.01	-7.5	1
2014-09-19	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	43.6	1041	1125	31.38%	23.02%	45.60%	-0.35	-6.7	6
2014-09-19	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	43.6	1125	1041	45.60%	23.02%	31.38%	+0.35	+6.8	12
2014-09-19	Prestatyn Town	D 3-3	62.5	1051	979	52.47%	22.45%	25.09%	+0.71	-0.8	2
2014-09-19	@ Bangor City	D 3-3	62.5	979	1051	25.09%	22.45%	52.47%	-0.71	+0.8	5
2014-09-19	Rhyl	L 1-3	42.4	983	1032	35.97%	23.19%	40.84%	-0.12	-13.0	2
2014-09-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	42.4	1032	983	40.84%	23.19%	35.97%	+0.12	+13.0	7
2014-09-19	The New Saints	L 0-3	30.8	1150	1308	22.89%	22.12%	54.99%	-0.85	-15.0	11
2014-09-19	@ Bala Town	W 3-0	30.8	1308	1150	54.99%	22.12%	22.89%	+0.85	+15.0	16
2014-09-20	Cefn Druids	W 4-1	32.4	1039	829	66.81%	19.51%	13.68%	+1.63	+7.7	10
2014-09-20	@ Newtown	L 1-4	32.4	829	1039	13.68%	19.51%	66.81%	-1.63	-7.7	4
2014-09-21	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	32.0	1168	1054	57.30%	21.76%	20.95%	+0.99	+9.5	13
2014-09-21	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	32.0	1054	1168	20.95%	21.76%	57.30%	-0.99	-9.5	8
2014-09-26	Bala Town	W 4-0	33.6	1132	1135	42.67%	23.14%	34.19%	+0.20	+27.4	15
2014-09-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	33.6	1135	1132	34.19%	23.14%	42.67%	-0.20	-27.4	11
2014-09-27	Cefn Druids	L 2-3	60.5	1177	822	77.84%	15.13%	7.03%	+2.62	-13.6	13
2014-09-27	@ Airbus UK	W 3-2	60.5	822	1177	7.03%	15.13%	77.84%	-2.62	+13.5	7
2014-09-27	Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	37.3	1045	1035	44.51%	23.07%	32.42%	+0.29	-25.8	7
2014-09-27	@ Rhyl	W 3-0	37.3	1035	1045	32.42%	23.07%	44.51%	-0.29	+25.8	9
2014-09-27	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	39.2	1044	980	51.54%	22.55%	25.91%	+0.66	+10.0	11
2014-09-27	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	39.2	980	1044	25.91%	22.55%	51.54%	-0.66	-9.9	5
2014-09-28	Newtown	D 1-1	54.0	1323	1046	72.38%	17.55%	10.07%	+2.09	-3.1	17
2014-09-28	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	54.0	1046	1323	10.07%	17.55%	72.38%	-2.09	+3.1	11
2014-10-03	Rhyl	L 1-2	50.2	1107	1020	54.33%	22.21%	23.46%	+0.81	-10.5	11
2014-10-03	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	50.2	1020	1107	23.46%	22.21%	54.33%	-0.81	+10.5	10
2014-10-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-3	48.9	1049	1160	28.18%	22.79%	49.03%	-0.52	+19.0	14
2014-10-04	@ Newtown	L 3-6	48.9	1160	1049	49.03%	22.79%	28.18%	+0.52	-18.9	15
2014-10-04	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	46.9	1050	1054	42.46%	23.15%	34.39%	+0.19	-8.6	2
2014-10-04	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	46.9	1054	1050	34.39%	23.15%	42.46%	-0.19	+8.6	14
2014-10-04	Cefn Druids	L 0-4	40.6	970	835	59.55%	21.34%	19.11%	+1.13	-43.4	5
2014-10-04	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	40.6	835	970	19.11%	21.34%	59.55%	-1.13	+43.4	10
2014-10-04	The New Saints	L 2-3	46.6	1164	1320	23.08%	22.15%	54.77%	-0.84	-4.9	13
2014-10-04	@ Airbus UK	W 3-2	46.6	1320	1164	54.77%	22.15%	23.08%	+0.84	+4.9	20
2014-10-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.5	1060	970	54.70%	22.16%	23.14%	+0.83	-1.5	10
2014-10-05	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.5	970	1060	23.14%	22.16%	54.70%	-0.83	+1.5	3
2014-10-08	Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	30.3	1159	1059	55.72%	22.01%	22.27%	+0.89	+14.6	16
2014-10-08	@ Airbus UK	L 0-3	30.3	1059	1159	22.27%	22.01%	55.72%	-0.89	-14.6	10
2014-10-11	Airbus UK	W 2-1	45.8	1141	1173	38.42%	23.21%	38.38%	+0.00	+7.9	18
2014-10-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	45.8	1173	1141	38.38%	23.21%	38.42%	+0.00	-7.9	16
2014-10-11	Bala Town	L 0-1	37.0	971	1097	26.38%	22.60%	51.01%	-0.63	-6.2	3
2014-10-11	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	37.0	1097	971	51.01%	22.60%	26.38%	+0.63	+6.2	14
2014-10-11	Bangor City	W 2-0	36.1	1044	1042	43.37%	23.12%	33.51%	+0.24	+14.2	13
2014-10-11	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	36.1	1042	1044	33.51%	23.12%	43.37%	-0.24	-14.2	2
2014-10-11	Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	37.3	879	1063	20.47%	21.66%	57.87%	-1.02	-8.1	10
2014-10-11	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	37.3	1063	879	57.87%	21.66%	20.47%	+1.02	+8.1	17
2014-10-11	Prestatyn Town	W 6-0	23.5	1325	926	80.49%	13.78%	5.74%	+2.92	+6.8	23
2014-10-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	23.5	926	1325	5.74%	13.78%	80.49%	-2.92	-6.8	5
2014-10-12	Newtown	D 2-2	57.7	1030	1068	37.58%	23.21%	39.21%	-0.04	+0.1	11
2014-10-12	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	57.7	1068	1030	39.21%	23.21%	37.58%	+0.04	-0.1	15
2014-10-17	Cefn Druids	L 0-1	47.1	1028	871	61.87%	20.84%	17.29%	+1.28	-12.6	2
2014-10-17	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	47.1	871	1028	17.29%	20.84%	61.87%	-1.28	+12.6	13
2014-10-17	The New Saints	L 1-2	37.7	1071	1332	14.53%	19.87%	65.59%	-1.54	-3.4	17
2014-10-17	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	37.7	1332	1071	65.59%	19.87%	14.53%	+1.54	+3.4	26
2014-10-18	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	52.2	920	1149	16.78%	20.68%	62.55%	-1.33	+12.0	8
2014-10-18	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	52.2	1149	920	62.55%	20.68%	16.78%	+1.33	-12.0	18
2014-10-18	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	50.6	1068	965	56.16%	21.94%	21.90%	+0.92	-10.9	15
2014-10-18	@ Newtown	W 2-1	50.6	965	1068	21.90%	21.94%	56.16%	-0.92	+10.9	6
2014-10-18	Rhyl	W 2-1	39.4	1165	1030	59.63%	21.32%	19.05%	+1.13	+4.4	19
2014-10-18	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	39.4	1030	1165	19.05%	21.32%	59.63%	-1.13	-4.4	11
2014-10-19	Port Talbot Town	W 4-1	37.7	1103	1058	48.98%	22.79%	28.23%	+0.52	+15.1	17
2014-10-19	@ Bala Town	L 1-4	37.7	1058	1103	28.23%	22.79%	48.98%	-0.52	-15.1	13
2014-10-24	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	34.3	1118	1137	40.42%	23.19%	36.39%	+0.10	+28.8	20
2014-10-24	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	34.3	1137	1118	36.39%	23.19%	40.42%	-0.10	-28.8	18
2014-10-24	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	40.5	1015	976	48.32%	22.84%	28.84%	+0.49	-19.1	2
2014-10-24	@ Bangor City	W 2-0	40.5	976	1015	28.84%	22.84%	48.32%	-0.49	+19.1	9
2014-10-25	Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	39.0	931	1068	25.24%	22.47%	52.29%	-0.70	-9.7	8
2014-10-25	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	39.0	1068	931	52.29%	22.47%	25.24%	+0.70	+9.7	20
2014-10-25	Rhyl	W 3-0	33.4	1043	1026	45.43%	23.03%	31.54%	+0.34	+19.7	16
2014-10-25	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	33.4	1026	1043	31.54%	23.03%	45.43%	-0.34	-19.7	11
2014-10-25	The New Saints	L 2-3	42.7	1057	1335	13.48%	19.42%	67.10%	-1.66	-2.9	15
2014-10-25	@ Newtown	W 3-2	42.7	1335	1057	67.10%	19.42%	13.48%	+1.66	+2.9	29
2014-10-26	Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.4	883	1170	12.96%	19.18%	67.85%	-1.71	+2.7	14
2014-10-26	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.4	1170	883	67.85%	19.18%	12.96%	+1.71	-2.7	20
2014-10-31	Newtown	W 1-0	37.3	1108	1055	50.11%	22.69%	27.20%	+0.58	+6.4	21
2014-10-31	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.3	1055	1108	27.20%	22.69%	50.11%	-0.58	-6.4	15
2014-10-31	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	43.3	886	922	37.94%	23.21%	38.86%	-0.02	+13.8	17
2014-10-31	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	43.3	922	886	38.86%	23.21%	37.94%	+0.02	-13.8	8
2014-11-01	Bala Town	L 0-1	36.5	1006	1147	24.74%	22.40%	52.86%	-0.73	-5.9	11
2014-11-01	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	36.5	1147	1006	52.86%	22.40%	24.74%	+0.73	+5.9	23
2014-11-01	Bangor City	L 0-2	41.9	1077	996	53.58%	22.31%	24.11%	+0.77	-20.8	20
2014-11-01	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	41.9	996	1077	24.11%	22.31%	53.58%	-0.77	+20.8	5
2014-11-01	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	52.2	995	1063	33.45%	23.12%	43.43%	-0.24	+0.4	10
2014-11-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	1063	995	43.43%	23.12%	33.45%	+0.24	-0.4	17
2014-11-02	Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.5	1338	1167	63.29%	20.49%	16.21%	+1.38	-2.3	30
2014-11-02	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	53.5	1167	1338	16.21%	20.49%	63.29%	-1.38	+2.3	21
2014-11-07	Cefn Druids	W 4-2	39.1	1114	900	67.27%	19.37%	13.36%	+1.67	+4.8	24
2014-11-07	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	39.1	900	1114	13.36%	19.37%	67.27%	-1.67	-4.8	17
2014-11-07	The New Saints	L 0-5	25.7	1017	1336	11.18%	18.24%	70.58%	-1.94	-11.9	5
2014-11-07	@ Bangor City	W 5-0	25.7	1336	1017	70.58%	18.24%	11.18%	+1.94	+11.9	33
2014-11-08	Airbus UK	W 2-0	40.6	1063	1169	28.60%	22.82%	48.57%	-0.50	+19.1	20
2014-11-08	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	40.6	1169	1063	48.57%	22.82%	28.60%	+0.50	-19.1	21
2014-11-09	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	38.4	995	908	54.27%	22.22%	23.51%	+0.81	+9.2	13
2014-11-09	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	38.4	908	995	23.51%	22.22%	54.27%	-0.81	-9.1	8
2014-11-12	Bangor City	W 1-0	39.5	1004	1005	42.95%	23.13%	33.92%	+0.22	+7.6	16
2014-11-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	39.5	1005	1004	33.92%	23.13%	42.95%	-0.22	-7.6	5
2014-11-14	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.8	1348	1119	68.52%	18.96%	12.51%	+1.77	-2.8	34
2014-11-14	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	53.8	1119	1348	12.51%	18.96%	68.52%	-1.77	+2.8	25
2014-11-14	Rhyl	L 0-1	37.8	895	1000	28.76%	22.84%	48.40%	-0.49	-6.7	17
2014-11-14	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	37.8	1000	895	48.40%	22.84%	28.76%	+0.49	+6.7	14
2014-11-15	Bala Town	W 2-1	44.5	1150	1153	42.65%	23.14%	34.20%	+0.20	+7.2	24
2014-11-15	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	44.5	1153	1150	34.20%	23.14%	42.65%	-0.20	-7.2	23
2014-11-15	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.3	1056	1012	49.00%	22.79%	28.21%	+0.52	-1.0	21
2014-11-15	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.3	1012	1056	28.21%	22.79%	49.00%	-0.52	+1.0	17
2014-11-15	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	51.0	899	1082	20.59%	21.68%	57.73%	-1.02	+11.1	11
2014-11-15	@ Prestatyn Town	L 1-2	51.0	1082	899	57.73%	21.68%	20.59%	+1.02	-11.1	20
2014-11-16	Bangor City	W 2-1	42.3	1048	997	49.82%	22.72%	27.46%	+0.56	+6.0	18
2014-11-16	@ Newtown	L 1-2	42.3	997	1048	27.46%	22.72%	49.82%	-0.56	-6.0	5
2014-11-21	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.9	991	1122	25.86%	22.54%	51.60%	-0.66	+0.9	6
2014-11-21	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	57.9	1122	991	51.60%	22.54%	25.86%	+0.66	-0.9	26
2014-11-21	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	52.7	1013	888	58.50%	21.54%	19.96%	+1.06	-1.8	18
2014-11-21	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.7	888	1013	19.96%	21.54%	58.50%	-1.06	+1.8	18
2014-11-21	Prestatyn Town	W 4-2	38.6	1146	910	69.08%	18.78%	12.15%	+1.81	+4.3	26
2014-11-21	@ Bala Town	L 2-4	38.6	910	1146	12.15%	18.78%	69.08%	-1.81	-4.3	11
2014-11-22	Airbus UK	W 1-0	43.7	1054	1157	29.03%	22.86%	48.11%	-0.48	+10.1	21
2014-11-22	@ Newtown	L 0-1	43.7	1157	1054	48.11%	22.86%	29.03%	+0.48	-10.1	24
2014-11-22	The New Saints	D 2-2	59.5	1007	1345	10.26%	17.68%	72.07%	-2.06	+2.3	15
2014-11-22	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	59.5	1345	1007	72.07%	17.68%	10.26%	+2.06	-2.3	35
2014-11-23	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	35.6	1071	1056	45.09%	23.05%	31.87%	+0.32	+13.7	23
2014-11-23	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	35.6	1056	1071	31.87%	23.05%	45.09%	-0.32	-13.7	21
2014-12-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	26.4	1343	1011	76.30%	15.86%	7.84%	+2.46	+3.4	38
2014-12-05	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	26.4	1011	1343	7.84%	15.86%	76.30%	-2.46	-3.4	18
2014-12-06	Bala Town	L 1-2	42.6	1042	1150	28.45%	22.81%	48.74%	-0.51	-6.2	21
2014-12-06	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	42.6	1150	1042	48.74%	22.81%	28.45%	+0.51	+6.2	29
2014-12-06	Bangor City	W 5-1	32.4	1147	992	61.70%	20.88%	17.43%	+1.27	+12.7	27
2014-12-06	@ Airbus UK	L 1-5	32.4	992	1147	17.43%	20.88%	61.70%	-1.27	-12.7	6
2014-12-06	Newtown	D 2-2	58.0	906	1064	22.89%	22.12%	54.99%	-0.85	+1.1	12
2014-12-06	@ Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	58.0	1064	906	54.99%	22.12%	22.89%	+0.85	-1.1	22
2014-12-06	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	51.3	890	1084	19.59%	21.46%	58.95%	-1.09	+11.3	21
2014-12-06	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-2	51.3	1084	890	58.95%	21.46%	19.59%	+1.09	-11.3	23
2014-12-07	Rhyl	W 2-0	32.0	1121	1009	57.07%	21.79%	21.13%	+0.97	+9.6	29
2014-12-07	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	32.0	1009	1121	21.13%	21.79%	57.07%	-0.97	-9.6	15
2014-12-12	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	44.1	1008	1130	26.71%	22.64%	50.64%	-0.61	-9.2	18
2014-12-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-2	44.1	1130	1008	50.64%	22.64%	26.71%	+0.61	+9.1	32
2014-12-12	The New Saints	L 1-5	31.1	1073	1346	13.75%	19.54%	66.71%	-1.63	-10.0	23
2014-12-12	@ Port Talbot Town	W 5-1	31.1	1346	1073	66.71%	19.54%	13.75%	+1.63	+10.0	41
2014-12-13	Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	40.1	1063	1036	46.76%	22.95%	30.29%	+0.41	-18.5	22
2014-12-13	@ Newtown	W 2-0	40.1	1036	1063	30.29%	22.95%	46.76%	-0.41	+18.5	24
2014-12-13	Cefn Druids	W 3-1	33.5	1156	901	70.63%	18.22%	11.15%	+1.94	+4.4	32
2014-12-13	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	33.5	901	1156	11.15%	18.22%	70.63%	-1.94	-4.4	21
2014-12-13	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	36.1	1160	907	70.52%	18.26%	11.22%	+1.93	+2.5	30
2014-12-13	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	36.1	907	1160	11.22%	18.26%	70.52%	-1.93	-2.6	12
2014-12-14	Rhyl	D 0-0	48.4	979	1000	40.19%	23.20%	36.62%	+0.08	-0.2	7
2014-12-14	@ Bangor City	D 0-0	48.4	1000	979	36.62%	23.20%	40.19%	-0.08	+0.2	16
2014-12-19	Newtown	L 0-2	33.0	897	1045	24.03%	22.30%	53.68%	-0.78	-10.8	21
2014-12-19	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	33.0	1045	897	53.68%	22.30%	24.03%	+0.78	+10.8	25
2014-12-20	Airbus UK	W 2-1	48.7	1054	1162	28.41%	22.81%	48.79%	-0.51	+9.6	27
2014-12-20	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	48.7	1162	1054	48.79%	22.81%	28.41%	+0.51	-9.6	30
2014-12-20	Bala Town	W 1-0	33.2	1356	1160	65.61%	19.87%	14.52%	+1.54	+3.5	44
2014-12-20	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	33.2	1160	1356	14.52%	19.87%	65.61%	-1.54	-3.5	32
2014-12-20	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	1000	998	43.20%	23.13%	33.67%	+0.23	-0.4	17
2014-12-20	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	52.2	998	1000	33.67%	23.13%	43.20%	-0.23	+0.4	19
2014-12-20	Port Talbot Town	L 0-3	39.6	1140	1063	53.00%	22.38%	24.61%	+0.74	-30.0	32
2014-12-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	39.6	1063	1140	24.61%	22.38%	53.00%	-0.74	+30.0	26
2014-12-21	Bangor City	L 1-2	43.9	904	979	32.56%	23.08%	44.36%	-0.29	-6.9	12
2014-12-21	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	43.9	979	904	44.36%	23.08%	32.56%	+0.29	+6.9	10
2014-12-26	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	42.6	1064	1110	36.53%	23.20%	40.27%	-0.09	-13.2	27
2014-12-26	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	42.6	1110	1064	40.27%	23.20%	36.53%	+0.09	+13.2	35
2014-12-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-0	27.9	1153	999	61.58%	20.91%	17.52%	+1.26	+15.3	33
2014-12-26	@ Airbus UK	L 0-4	27.9	999	1153	17.52%	20.91%	61.58%	-1.26	-15.3	19
2014-12-26	Newtown	W 2-0	34.8	1093	1055	48.07%	22.86%	29.06%	+0.47	+12.7	29
2014-12-26	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	34.8	1055	1093	29.06%	22.86%	48.07%	-0.47	-12.7	25
2014-12-27	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	58.1	999	897	55.99%	21.97%	22.04%	+0.91	-1.2	18
2014-12-27	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	58.1	897	999	22.04%	21.97%	55.99%	-0.91	+1.2	13
2015-01-01	Airbus UK	L 0-3	29.6	984	1168	20.44%	21.65%	57.91%	-1.03	-13.5	19
2015-01-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-0	29.6	1168	984	57.91%	21.65%	20.44%	+1.03	+13.5	36
2015-01-01	Carmarthen Town	W 5-3	45.9	1123	1051	52.46%	22.45%	25.10%	+0.71	+8.2	38
2015-01-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 3-5	45.9	1051	1123	25.10%	22.45%	52.46%	-0.71	-8.2	27
2015-01-01	Port Talbot Town	D 3-3	62.4	1043	1106	34.19%	23.14%	42.67%	-0.20	+0.2	26
2015-01-01	@ Newtown	D 3-3	62.4	1106	1043	42.67%	23.14%	34.19%	+0.20	-0.2	30
2015-01-01	The New Saints	L 0-4	22.1	886	1360	5.49%	13.49%	81.02%	-2.98	-4.4	21
2015-01-01	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-0	22.1	1360	886	81.02%	13.49%	5.49%	+2.98	+4.4	47
2015-01-02	Bala Town	L 0-3	30.1	986	1157	21.72%	21.91%	56.37%	-0.93	-14.3	10
2015-01-02	@ Bangor City	W 3-0	30.1	1157	986	56.37%	21.91%	21.72%	+0.93	+14.3	35
2015-01-02	Rhyl	L 1-2	42.9	898	998	29.44%	22.89%	47.67%	-0.45	-6.4	13
2015-01-02	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.9	998	898	47.67%	22.89%	29.44%	+0.45	+6.4	21
2015-01-05	Newtown	W 3-1	37.1	1171	1043	58.89%	21.47%	19.64%	+1.09	+7.8	38
2015-01-05	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	37.1	1043	1171	19.64%	21.47%	58.89%	-1.09	-7.8	26
2015-01-06	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.2	1005	1042	37.65%	23.21%	39.15%	-0.04	+0.1	22
2015-01-06	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	52.2	1042	1005	39.15%	23.21%	37.65%	+0.04	-0.1	28
2015-01-06	Cefn Druids	W 3-1	29.3	1364	882	84.84%	11.31%	3.85%	+3.48	+1.4	50
2015-01-06	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	29.3	882	1364	3.85%	11.31%	84.84%	-3.48	-1.3	21
2015-01-09	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.4	1182	1131	49.79%	22.72%	27.49%	+0.56	-1.0	37
2015-01-09	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	52.4	1131	1182	27.49%	22.72%	49.79%	-0.56	+1.0	39
2015-01-10	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	38.5	1042	881	62.36%	20.72%	16.92%	+1.31	+3.9	31
2015-01-10	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	38.5	881	1042	16.92%	20.72%	62.36%	-1.31	-3.9	21
2015-01-10	Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	49.6	972	1105	25.53%	22.50%	51.96%	-0.68	+10.1	13
2015-01-10	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	49.6	1105	972	51.96%	22.50%	25.53%	+0.68	-10.1	30
2015-01-10	The New Saints	L 1-3	30.5	892	1366	5.49%	13.49%	81.02%	-2.98	-2.0	13
2015-01-10	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	30.5	1366	892	81.02%	13.49%	5.49%	+2.98	+2.0	53
2015-01-11	Rhyl	W 1-0	38.2	1035	1005	47.17%	22.93%	29.90%	+0.43	+6.9	29
2015-01-11	@ Newtown	L 0-1	38.2	1005	1035	29.90%	22.93%	47.17%	-0.43	-6.9	22
2015-01-14	Bangor City	W 3-0	27.3	1179	982	65.70%	19.84%	14.46%	+1.55	+9.7	41
2015-01-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	27.3	982	1179	14.46%	19.84%	65.70%	-1.55	-9.7	13
2015-01-17	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	33.8	1132	890	69.61%	18.59%	11.80%	+1.86	+4.7	42
2015-01-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	33.8	890	1132	11.80%	18.59%	69.61%	-1.86	-4.7	13
2015-01-18	Bala Town	W 4-3	57.1	1095	1189	30.21%	22.95%	46.84%	-0.41	+8.6	33
2015-01-18	@ Port Talbot Town	L 3-4	57.1	1189	1095	46.84%	22.95%	30.21%	+0.41	-8.6	41
2015-01-24	Airbus UK	L 1-2	39.9	998	1181	20.59%	21.68%	57.73%	-1.02	-4.7	22
2015-01-24	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	39.9	1181	998	57.73%	21.68%	20.59%	+1.02	+4.7	40
2015-01-24	Bangor City	D 2-2	57.8	877	972	29.93%	22.93%	47.14%	-0.43	+0.6	22
2015-01-24	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	57.8	972	877	47.14%	22.93%	29.93%	+0.43	-0.6	14
2015-01-24	Newtown	L 2-3	49.5	970	1042	32.96%	23.10%	43.95%	-0.27	-6.6	19
2015-01-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	49.5	1042	970	43.95%	23.10%	32.96%	+0.27	+6.7	32
2015-01-28	Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	24.5	1368	1046	75.59%	16.19%	8.22%	+2.39	+5.3	56
2015-01-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	24.5	1046	1368	8.22%	16.19%	75.59%	-2.39	-5.3	31
2015-01-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	48.4	1180	963	67.46%	19.31%	13.23%	+1.68	-13.5	41
2015-01-28	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	48.4	963	1180	13.23%	19.31%	67.46%	-1.68	+13.6	22

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2015-01-30	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	40.2	993	885	56.63%	21.87%	21.50%	+0.95	+4.9	3
2015-01-30	@ Rhyl	L 1-2	40.2	885	993	21.50%	21.87%	56.63%	-0.95	-4.9	0
2015-01-31	Bangor City	D 3-3	62.5	1041	972	52.10%	22.49%	25.41%	+0.69	-0.8	1
2015-01-31	@ Carmarthen Town	D 3-3	62.5	972	1041	25.41%	22.49%	52.10%	-0.69	+0.8	1
2015-01-31	Newtown	W 3-2	46.4	1137	1049	54.35%	22.21%	23.44%	+0.81	+5.0	3
2015-01-31	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	46.4	1049	1137	23.44%	22.21%	54.35%	-0.81	-5.0	0
2015-01-31	Port Talbot Town	W 6-0	26.5	1373	1104	71.78%	17.79%	10.43%	+2.04	+13.1	3
2015-01-31	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	26.5	1104	1373	10.43%	17.79%	71.78%	-2.04	-13.2	0
2015-02-01	Bala Town	L 1-2	47.9	1185	1167	45.60%	23.02%	31.38%	+0.35	-9.1	0
2015-02-01	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	47.9	1167	1185	31.38%	23.02%	45.60%	-0.35	+9.1	3
2015-02-03	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.8	977	877	55.72%	22.01%	22.27%	+0.89	-1.8	1
2015-02-03	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.8	877	977	22.27%	22.01%	55.72%	-0.89	+1.8	1
2015-02-13	Cefn Druids	W 5-3	45.1	973	879	55.01%	22.12%	22.88%	+0.85	+7.6	4
2015-02-13	@ Bangor City	L 3-5	45.1	879	973	22.88%	22.12%	55.01%	-0.85	-7.5	1
2015-02-14	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	48.4	1176	1142	47.70%	22.89%	29.41%	+0.45	+6.1	3
2015-02-14	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	48.4	1142	1176	29.41%	22.89%	47.70%	-0.45	-6.1	3
2015-02-14	Bala Town	L 1-3	41.1	1091	1176	31.28%	23.02%	45.70%	-0.35	-11.6	0
2015-02-14	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	41.1	1176	1091	45.70%	23.02%	31.28%	+0.35	+11.7	6
2015-02-14	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.5	880	1040	22.79%	22.10%	55.11%	-0.86	+1.5	1
2015-02-14	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.5	1040	880	55.11%	22.10%	22.79%	+0.86	-1.5	2
2015-02-14	Rhyl	D 1-1	52.2	975	998	39.82%	23.20%	36.98%	+0.07	-0.1	2
2015-02-14	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	998	975	36.98%	23.20%	39.82%	-0.07	+0.1	4
2015-02-14	The New Saints	D 0-0	50.4	1044	1386	10.07%	17.55%	72.38%	-2.09	+3.5	1
2015-02-14	@ Newtown	D 0-0	50.4	1386	1044	72.38%	17.55%	10.07%	+2.09	-3.4	4
2015-02-20	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	52.2	882	871	44.47%	23.08%	32.46%	+0.29	-0.5	2
2015-02-20	@ Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	52.2	871	882	32.46%	23.08%	44.47%	-0.29	+0.5	2
2015-02-21	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.5	1047	1187	24.82%	22.41%	52.77%	-0.73	+1.3	2
2015-02-21	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.5	1187	1047	52.77%	22.41%	24.82%	+0.73	-1.3	7
2015-02-21	Bangor City	D 1-1	52.2	975	980	42.32%	23.15%	34.53%	+0.19	-0.3	3
2015-02-21	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	980	975	34.53%	23.15%	42.32%	-0.19	+0.3	5
2015-02-21	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	41.2	998	1039	37.25%	23.20%	39.54%	-0.05	+8.6	7
2015-02-21	@ Rhyl	L 0-1	41.2	1039	998	39.54%	23.20%	37.25%	+0.05	-8.6	2
2015-02-21	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	30.0	1182	1079	56.14%	21.95%	21.92%	+0.92	+23.2	6
2015-02-21	@ Airbus UK	L 0-5	30.0	1079	1182	21.92%	21.95%	56.14%	-0.92	-23.2	0
2015-02-22	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.6	1136	1383	15.48%	20.24%	64.29%	-1.45	-13.5	3
2015-02-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	27.6	1383	1136	64.29%	20.24%	15.48%	+1.45	+13.5	7
2015-02-27	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	62.6	1186	1122	51.44%	22.56%	26.00%	+0.65	-0.7	8
2015-02-27	@ Bala Town	D 3-3	62.6	1122	1186	26.00%	22.56%	51.44%	-0.65	+0.7	4
2015-02-27	Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	29.6	980	881	55.64%	22.02%	22.34%	+0.89	+19.2	8
2015-02-27	@ Bangor City	L 0-4	29.6	881	980	22.34%	22.02%	55.64%	-0.89	-19.2	2
2015-02-27	Rhyl	L 1-2	41.6	872	1007	25.41%	22.49%	52.11%	-0.69	-5.7	2
2015-02-27	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	41.6	1007	872	52.11%	22.49%	25.41%	+0.69	+5.6	10
2015-02-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 2-3	54.6	1030	975	50.38%	22.67%	26.96%	+0.59	-9.4	2
2015-02-28	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	54.6	975	1030	26.96%	22.67%	50.38%	-0.59	+9.4	6
2015-02-28	Newtown	W 4-0	33.1	1056	1048	44.02%	23.10%	32.88%	+0.27	+26.6	3
2015-02-28	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-4	33.1	1048	1056	32.88%	23.10%	44.02%	-0.27	-26.6	2
2015-03-01	Airbus UK	W 2-0	30.6	1396	1206	65.12%	20.01%	14.87%	+1.51	+6.8	10
2015-03-01	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	30.6	1206	1396	14.87%	20.01%	65.12%	-1.51	-6.9	6
2015-03-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 3-4	50.9	862	984	26.83%	22.65%	50.51%	-0.60	-5.5	2
2015-03-13	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-3	50.9	984	862	50.51%	22.65%	26.83%	+0.60	+5.5	9
2015-03-13	Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	57.9	1123	1082	48.46%	22.83%	28.71%	+0.49	-0.7	5
2015-03-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.9	1082	1123	28.71%	22.83%	48.46%	-0.49	+0.7	4
2015-03-14	Airbus UK	L 0-2	32.1	1022	1199	21.15%	21.80%	57.05%	-0.97	-9.6	2
2015-03-14	@ Newtown	W 2-0	32.1	1199	1022	57.05%	21.80%	21.15%	+0.97	+9.6	9
2015-03-14	Bala Town	W 3-0	27.6	1403	1185	67.56%	19.28%	13.16%	+1.69	+8.8	13
2015-03-14	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	27.6	1185	1403	13.16%	19.28%	67.56%	-1.69	-8.8	8
2015-03-14	Bangor City	D 1-1	52.2	1012	1000	44.76%	23.06%	32.17%	+0.31	-0.6	11
2015-03-14	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	52.2	1000	1012	32.17%	23.06%	44.76%	-0.31	+0.6	9
2015-03-14	Cefn Druids	W 3-1	36.2	1021	866	61.62%	20.90%	17.49%	+1.26	+7.0	5
2015-03-14	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	36.2	866	1021	17.49%	20.90%	61.62%	-1.26	-7.0	2
2015-03-20	Rhyl	L 1-2	40.8	857	1012	23.28%	22.18%	54.54%	-0.83	-5.2	2
2015-03-20	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	40.8	1012	857	54.54%	22.18%	23.28%	+0.83	+5.2	14
2015-03-21	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	62.5	1012	1122	28.23%	22.79%	48.98%	-0.52	+0.6	3
2015-03-21	@ Newtown	D 3-3	62.5	1122	1012	48.98%	22.79%	28.23%	+0.52	-0.6	6
2015-03-21	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	40.6	1000	1028	39.13%	23.21%	37.66%	+0.03	+8.3	12
2015-03-21	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	40.6	1028	1000	37.66%	23.21%	39.13%	-0.03	-8.3	5
2015-03-21	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	41.4	859	990	25.89%	22.55%	51.56%	-0.66	+20.1	5
2015-03-21	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-2	41.4	990	859	51.56%	22.55%	25.89%	+0.66	-20.1	9
2015-03-21	The New Saints	L 1-3	33.7	1083	1412	10.71%	17.96%	71.33%	-2.00	-4.2	4
2015-03-21	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	33.7	1412	1083	71.33%	17.96%	10.71%	+2.00	+4.2	16
2015-03-22	Airbus UK	W 3-0	35.6	1176	1208	38.51%	23.21%	38.28%	+0.01	+22.9	11
2015-03-22	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	35.6	1208	1176	38.28%	23.21%	38.51%	-0.01	-22.9	9
2015-03-27	Newtown	W 4-2	35.3	1416	1013	80.73%	13.65%	5.62%	+2.94	+1.9	19
2015-03-27	@ The New Saints	L 2-4	35.3	1013	1416	5.62%	13.65%	80.73%	-2.94	-1.9	3
2015-03-28	Bangor City	L 0-2	33.7	880	1008	26.04%	22.56%	51.40%	-0.65	-11.5	5
2015-03-28	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	33.7	1008	880	51.40%	22.56%	26.04%	+0.65	+11.6	15
2015-03-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	48.8	1017	969	49.37%	22.76%	27.87%	+0.54	-9.7	14
2015-03-28	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	48.8	969	1017	27.87%	22.76%	49.37%	-0.54	+9.7	12
2015-03-28	Port Talbot Town	W 4-1	35.1	1199	1079	58.06%	21.62%	20.32%	+1.03	+11.3	14
2015-03-28	@ Bala Town	L 1-4	35.1	1079	1199	20.32%	21.62%	58.06%	-1.03	-11.3	4
2015-03-28	Prestatyn Town	W 5-2	36.9	1019	852	62.95%	20.58%	16.47%	+1.35	+8.1	8
2015-03-28	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-5	36.9	852	1019	16.47%	20.58%	62.95%	-1.35	-8.0	2
2015-03-29	Airbus UK	L 1-3	41.9	1122	1185	34.05%	23.14%	42.82%	-0.21	-12.5	6
2015-03-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	41.9	1185	1122	42.82%	23.14%	34.05%	+0.21	+12.5	12
2015-04-10	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	64.8	1418	1109	74.71%	16.58%	8.71%	+2.31	-2.0	20
2015-04-10	@ The New Saints	D 3-3	64.8	1109	1418	8.71%	16.58%	74.71%	-2.31	+2.0	7
2015-04-10	Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	43.1	868	844	46.35%	22.98%	30.67%	+0.39	-9.8	5
2015-04-10	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	43.1	844	868	30.67%	22.98%	46.35%	-0.39	+9.8	5
2015-04-11	Airbus UK	W 1-0	44.6	1067	1198	25.87%	22.54%	51.59%	-0.66	+10.7	7
2015-04-11	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	44.6	1198	1067	51.59%	22.54%	25.87%	+0.66	-10.7	12
2015-04-11	Newtown	L 1-2	53.0	1211	1011	65.95%	19.77%	14.28%	+1.57	-12.5	14
2015-04-11	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	53.0	1011	1211	14.28%	19.77%	65.95%	-1.57	+12.5	6
2015-04-11	Rhyl	L 1-3	45.3	1027	1007	45.79%	23.01%	31.20%	+0.36	-15.8	8
2015-04-11	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	45.3	1007	1027	31.20%	23.01%	45.79%	-0.36	+15.8	17
2015-04-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	48.6	1020	979	48.51%	22.83%	28.66%	+0.50	-9.6	15
2015-04-12	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	48.6	979	1020	28.66%	22.83%	48.51%	-0.50	+9.6	15
2015-04-17	Bala Town	L 1-2	43.5	1111	1198	31.01%	23.00%	45.99%	-0.37	-6.7	7
2015-04-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	43.5	1198	1111	45.99%	23.00%	31.01%	+0.37	+6.7	17
2015-04-18	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	45.3	989	1012	39.78%	23.20%	37.02%	+0.07	+7.7	18
2015-04-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	45.3	1012	989	37.02%	23.20%	39.78%	-0.07	-7.7	8
2015-04-18	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	38.4	1023	858	62.65%	20.65%	16.70%	+1.33	+3.8	20
2015-04-18	@ Rhyl	L 1-2	38.4	858	1023	16.70%	20.65%	62.65%	-1.33	-3.8	5
2015-04-18	Port Talbot Town	L 1-3	42.3	1024	1078	35.31%	23.17%	41.51%	-0.15	-12.8	6
2015-04-18	@ Newtown	W 3-1	42.3	1078	1024	41.51%	23.17%	35.31%	+0.15	+12.8	10
2015-04-18	The New Saints	W 1-0	48.3	1187	1416	16.80%	20.69%	62.51%	-1.32	+12.7	15
2015-04-18	@ Airbus UK	L 0-1	48.3	1416	1187	62.51%	20.69%	16.80%	+1.32	-12.7	20
2015-04-19	Bangor City	L 1-3	38.2	853	1010	23.05%	22.15%	54.80%	-0.84	-9.0	5
2015-04-19	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	38.2	1010	853	54.80%	22.15%	23.05%	+0.84	+9.0	18
2015-04-26	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	46.5	1091	1104	41.14%	23.18%	35.68%	+0.13	-8.3	10
2015-04-26	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	46.5	1104	1091	35.68%	23.18%	41.14%	-0.13	+8.3	10
2015-04-26	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	36.2	854	1004	23.81%	22.27%	53.92%	-0.79	-5.7	5
2015-04-26	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	36.2	1004	854	53.92%	22.27%	23.81%	+0.79	+5.7	11
2015-04-26	Newtown	W 6-1	30.7	1200	1011	64.98%	20.05%	14.97%	+1.50	+13.4	18
2015-04-26	@ Airbus UK	L 1-6	30.7	1011	1200	14.97%	20.05%	64.98%	-1.50	-13.4	6
2015-04-26	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	36.3	996	844	61.38%	20.95%	17.67%	+1.25	+7.0	21
2015-04-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	36.3	844	996	17.67%	20.95%	61.38%	-1.25	-7.0	5
2015-04-26	Rhyl	W 4-3	53.5	1019	1027	41.98%	23.16%	34.86%	+0.17	+6.8	21
2015-04-26	@ Bangor City	L 3-4	53.5	1027	1019	34.86%	23.16%	41.98%	-0.17	-6.8	20
2015-04-26	The New Saints	D 1-1	53.7	1205	1403	19.23%	21.37%	59.40%	-1.12	+1.9	18
2015-04-26	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.7	1403	1205	59.40%	21.37%	19.23%	+1.12	-1.9	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2014-09-27	7.03%	Cefn Druids	822	3	@ Airbus UK	1177	2
2	2015-01-28	13.23%	Connah's Quay Nomads	963	1	@ Bala Town	1180	0
3	2015-04-11	14.28%	Newtown	1011	2	@ Bala Town	1211	1
4	2014-10-18	16.78%	@ Prestatyn Town	920	2	Aberystwyth Town	1149	1
5	2015-04-18	16.80%	@ Airbus UK	1187	1	The New Saints	1416	0
6	2014-10-17	17.29%	Cefn Druids	871	1	@ Bangor City	1028	0
7	2014-10-04	19.11%	Cefn Druids	835	4	@ Prestatyn Town	970	0
8	2014-12-06	19.59%	@ Cefn Druids	890	2	Port Talbot Town	1084	1
9	2014-11-15	20.59%	@ Prestatyn Town	899	2	Port Talbot Town	1082	1
10	2014-08-29	21.85%	@ Cefn Druids	830	3	Connah's Quay Nomads	999	2
11	2014-10-18	21.90%	Connah's Quay Nomads	965	2	@ Newtown	1068	1
12	2014-10-03	23.46%	Rhyl	1020	2	@ Bala Town	1107	1
13	2014-11-01	24.11%	Bangor City	996	2	@ Carmarthen Town	1077	0
14	2014-12-20	24.61%	Port Talbot Town	1063	3	@ Aberystwyth Town	1140	0
15	2015-01-10	25.53%	@ Bangor City	972	2	Port Talbot Town	1105	1
16	2015-04-11	25.87%	@ Port Talbot Town	1067	1	Airbus UK	1198	0
17	2015-03-21	25.89%	@ Cefn Druids	859	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	990	0
18	2015-02-28	26.96%	Connah's Quay Nomads	975	3	@ Carmarthen Town	1030	2
19	2014-08-25	27.45%	Newtown	1031	3	@ Bangor City	1082	1
20	2015-03-28	27.87%	Connah's Quay Nomads	969	2	@ Rhyl	1017	1
21	2014-10-04	28.18%	@ Newtown	1049	6	Aberystwyth Town	1160	3
22	2014-12-20	28.41%	@ Carmarthen Town	1054	2	Airbus UK	1162	1
23	2014-11-08	28.60%	@ Port Talbot Town	1063	2	Airbus UK	1169	0
24	2015-04-12	28.66%	Connah's Quay Nomads	979	2	@ Bangor City	1020	1
25	2014-10-24	28.84%	Connah's Quay Nomads	976	2	@ Bangor City	1015	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2014-10-04	43.44	Cefn Druids	4	835	19.11%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	970	59.55%	21.34%
2	2014-09-07	35.35	@ Bala Town	8	1112	45.99%	Carmarthen Town	1	1090	31.01%	23.00%
3	2014-12-20	29.97	Port Talbot Town	3	1063	24.61%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1140	53.00%	22.38%
4	2014-10-24	28.80	@ Bala Town	4	1118	40.42%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1137	36.39%	23.19%
5	2014-09-26	27.42	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1132	42.67%	Bala Town	0	1135	34.19%	23.14%
6	2015-02-28	26.58	@ Port Talbot Town	4	1056	44.02%	Newtown	0	1048	32.88%	23.10%
7	2014-09-27	25.83	Port Talbot Town	3	1035	32.42%	@ Rhyl	0	1045	44.51%	23.07%
8	2015-02-21	23.21	@ Airbus UK	5	1182	56.14%	Port Talbot Town	0	1079	21.92%	21.95%
9	2015-03-22	22.92	@ Bala Town	3	1176	38.51%	Airbus UK	0	1208	38.28%	23.21%
10	2014-11-01	20.84	Bangor City	2	996	24.11%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1077	53.58%	22.31%
11	2014-08-25	20.16	@ Port Talbot Town	3	1024	44.42%	Prestatyn Town	0	1014	32.50%	23.08%
12	2015-03-21	20.15	@ Cefn Druids	2	859	25.89%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	990	51.56%	22.55%
13	2014-10-25	19.68	@ Port Talbot Town	3	1043	45.43%	Rhyl	0	1026	31.54%	23.03%
14	2015-02-27	19.16	@ Bangor City	4	980	55.64%	Prestatyn Town	0	881	22.34%	22.02%
15	2014-11-08	19.14	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1063	28.60%	Airbus UK	0	1169	48.57%	22.82%
16	2014-10-24	19.05	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	976	28.84%	@ Bangor City	0	1015	48.32%	22.84%
17	2014-10-04	18.95	@ Newtown	6	1049	28.18%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1160	49.03%	22.79%
18	2014-12-13	18.53	Carmarthen Town	2	1036	30.29%	@ Newtown	0	1063	46.76%	22.95%
19	2014-08-25	16.94	Newtown	3	1031	27.45%	@ Bangor City	1	1082	49.83%	22.72%
20	2015-04-11	15.78	Rhyl	3	1007	31.20%	@ Carmarthen Town	1	1027	45.79%	23.01%
21	2014-08-22	15.68	Aberystwyth Town	5	1104	65.57%	@ Cefn Druids	0	843	14.55%	19.88%
22	2014-08-29	15.29	@ Airbus UK	3	1136	54.37%	Newtown	0	1047	23.42%	22.20%
23	2014-12-26	15.28	@ Airbus UK	4	1153	61.58%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	999	17.52%	20.91%
24	2014-10-19	15.14	@ Bala Town	4	1103	48.98%	Port Talbot Town	1	1058	28.23%	22.79%
25	2014-09-19	14.99	The New Saints	3	1308	54.99%	@ Bala Town	0	1150	22.89%	22.12%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-04-10	64.8	@ The New Saints	3	1418	74.71%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1109	8.71%	16.58%
2	2015-02-27	62.6	@ Bala Town	3	1186	51.44%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1122	26.00%	22.56%
3	2014-08-29	62.5	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1121	50.51%	Bangor City	3	1065	26.83%	22.65%
4	2014-08-30	62.5	@ Prestatyn Town	3	994	27.24%	Bala Town	3	1112	50.06%	22.70%
5	2014-09-19	62.5	@ Bangor City	3	1051	52.47%	Prestatyn Town	3	979	25.09%	22.45%
6	2015-01-31	62.5	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1041	52.10%	Bangor City	3	972	25.41%	22.49%
7	2015-03-21	62.5	@ Newtown	3	1012	28.23%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1122	48.98%	22.79%
8	2015-01-01	62.4	@ Newtown	3	1043	34.19%	Port Talbot Town	3	1106	42.67%	23.14%
9	2014-09-27	60.5	Cefn Druids	3	822	7.03%	@ Airbus UK	2	1177	77.84%	15.13%
10	2014-11-22	59.5	@ Rhyl	2	1007	10.26%	The New Saints	2	1345	72.07%	17.68%
11	2014-12-27	58.1	@ Rhyl	2	999	55.99%	Prestatyn Town	2	897	22.04%	21.97%
12	2014-12-06	58.0	@ Prestatyn Town	2	906	22.89%	Newtown	2	1064	54.99%	22.12%
13	2014-11-21	57.9	@ Bangor City	2	991	25.86%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1122	51.60%	22.54%
14	2015-03-13	57.9	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1123	48.46%	Port Talbot Town	2	1082	28.71%	22.83%
15	2015-01-24	57.8	@ Cefn Druids	2	877	29.93%	Bangor City	2	972	47.14%	22.93%
16	2014-10-12	57.7	@ Rhyl	2	1030	37.58%	Newtown	2	1068	39.21%	23.21%
17	2015-01-18	57.1	@ Port Talbot Town	4	1095	30.21%	Bala Town	3	1189	46.84%	22.95%
18	2014-08-29	56.1	@ Cefn Druids	3	830	21.85%	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	999	56.22%	21.93%
19	2015-02-28	54.6	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	975	26.96%	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1030	50.38%	22.67%
20	2014-09-28	54.0	@ The New Saints	1	1323	72.38%	Newtown	1	1046	10.07%	17.55%
21	2014-11-14	53.8	@ The New Saints	1	1348	68.52%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1119	12.51%	18.96%
22	2015-04-26	53.7	@ Bala Town	1	1205	19.23%	The New Saints	1	1403	59.40%	21.37%
23	2014-11-02	53.5	@ The New Saints	1	1338	63.29%	Airbus UK	1	1167	16.21%	20.49%
24	2015-04-26	53.5	@ Bangor City	4	1019	41.98%	Rhyl	3	1027	34.86%	23.16%
25	2014-10-26	53.4	@ Cefn Druids	1	883	12.96%	Airbus UK	1	1170	67.85%	19.18%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-01-01	22.1	The New Saints	4	1360	81.02%	@ Cefn Druids	0	886	5.49%	13.49%
2	2014-10-11	23.5	@ The New Saints	6	1325	80.49%	Prestatyn Town	0	926	5.74%	13.78%
3	2015-01-28	24.5	@ The New Saints	3	1368	75.59%	Carmarthen Town	0	1046	8.22%	16.19%
4	2014-11-07	25.7	The New Saints	5	1336	70.58%	@ Bangor City	0	1017	11.18%	18.24%
5	2014-12-05	26.4	@ The New Saints	2	1343	76.30%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1011	7.84%	15.86%
6	2015-01-31	26.5	@ The New Saints	6	1373	71.78%	Port Talbot Town	0	1104	10.43%	17.79%
7	2014-08-22	27.1	Aberystwyth Town	5	1104	65.57%	@ Cefn Druids	0	843	14.55%	19.88%
8	2015-01-14	27.3	@ Bala Town	3	1179	65.70%	Bangor City	0	982	14.46%	19.84%
9	2015-02-22	27.6	The New Saints	4	1383	64.29%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1136	15.48%	20.24%
10	2015-03-14	27.6	@ The New Saints	3	1403	67.56%	Bala Town	0	1185	13.16%	19.28%
11	2014-12-26	27.9	@ Airbus UK	4	1153	61.58%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	999	17.52%	20.91%
12	2014-09-13	28.0	@ The New Saints	2	1303	70.83%	Port Talbot Town	0	1046	11.02%	18.15%
13	2015-01-06	29.3	@ The New Saints	3	1364	84.84%	Cefn Druids	1	882	3.85%	11.31%
14	2014-08-29	29.4	@ The New Saints	6	1284	69.61%	Rhyl	1	1042	11.80%	18.59%
15	2015-01-01	29.6	Airbus UK	3	1168	57.91%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	984	20.44%	21.65%
16	2015-02-27	29.6	@ Bangor City	4	980	55.64%	Prestatyn Town	0	881	22.34%	22.02%
17	2014-08-22	29.8	@ The New Saints	2	1279	65.12%	Bangor City	0	1088	14.87%	20.01%
18	2015-02-21	30.0	@ Airbus UK	5	1182	56.14%	Port Talbot Town	0	1079	21.92%	21.95%
19	2015-01-02	30.1	Bala Town	3	1157	56.37%	@ Bangor City	0	986	21.72%	21.91%
20	2014-09-05	30.2	The New Saints	5	1295	69.48%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	989	11.89%	18.64%
21	2014-10-08	30.3	@ Airbus UK	3	1159	55.72%	Port Talbot Town	0	1059	22.27%	22.01%
22	2015-01-10	30.5	The New Saints	3	1366	81.02%	@ Prestatyn Town	1	892	5.49%	13.49%
23	2015-03-01	30.6	@ The New Saints	2	1396	65.12%	Airbus UK	0	1206	14.87%	20.01%
24	2014-08-29	30.7	@ Airbus UK	3	1136	54.37%	Newtown	0	1047	23.42%	22.20%
25	2015-04-26	30.7	@ Airbus UK	6	1200	64.98%	Newtown	1	1011	14.97%	20.05%