2015-16 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

64 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Carmarthen Town

4.31 points above expected

47 points · 42.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Haverfordwest County

6.11 points below expected

21 points · 27.11 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	13	8	1	47	48	16	+32	47.84	-0.84
2	Bala Town	22	11	8	3	41	33	17	+16	38.47	+2.53
3	Llandudno	22	11	4	7	37	36	26	+10	33.23	+3.77
4	Airbus UK	22	10	4	8	34	32	32	0	34.69	-0.69
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	10	2	10	32	37	29	+8	26.45	+5.55
6	Newtown	22	9	5	8	32	33	32	+1	27.22	+4.78
7	Bangor City	22	9	2	11	29	31	34	-3	27.61	+1.39
8	Carmarthen Town	22	8	4	10	28	29	42	-13	25.45	+2.55
9	Aberystwyth Town	22	7	5	10	26	32	37	-5	32.94	-6.94
10	Port Talbot Town	22	6	6	10	24	24	42	-18	28.11	-4.11
11	Rhyl	22	3	10	9	19	21	30	-9	24.55	-5.55
12	Haverfordwest County	22	5	2	15	17	18	37	-19	18.87	-1.87

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	18	10	4	64	72	24	+48	67.76	-3.76
2	Bala Town	32	15	12	5	57	48	27	+21	56.63	+0.37
3	Llandudno	32	15	7	10	52	53	46	+7	50.18	+1.82
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	15	3	14	48	50	42	+8	45.17	+2.83
5	Newtown	32	11	9	12	42	46	54	-8	41.27	+0.73
6	Airbus UK	32	12	6	14	42	46	55	-9	45.07	-3.07

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Carmarthen Town	32	14	5	13	47	45	52	-7	42.69	+4.31
2	Aberystwyth Town	32	13	7	12	46	51	47	+4	44.39	+1.61
3	Bangor City	32	13	6	13	45	49	52	-3	41.70	+3.30
4	Port Talbot Town	32	10	9	13	39	39	56	-17	37.24	+1.76
5	Rhyl	32	5	12	15	27	36	50	-14	32.52	-5.52
6	Haverfordwest County	32	5	6	21	21	27	57	-30	27.11	-6.11

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Carmarthen Town	47	42.69	+4.31
2	Bangor City	45	41.70	+3.30
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	48	45.17	+2.83
4	Llandudno	52	50.18	+1.82
5	Port Talbot Town	39	37.24	+1.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Haverfordwest County	21	27.11	-6.11
2	Rhyl	27	32.52	-5.52
3	The New Saints	64	67.76	-3.76
4	Airbus UK	42	45.07	-3.07
5	Bala Town	57	56.63	+0.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carmarthen Town	3	Oct 10 – Oct 24	1 in 28
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	Nov 7 – Nov 21	1 in 24
3	Newtown	3	Aug 22 – Sep 4	1 in 22
4	Haverfordwest County	2	Sep 12 – Sep 19	1 in 18
5	Rhyl	2	Oct 17 – Oct 23	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aberystwyth Town	4	Dec 29 – Jan 16	1 in 300
2	Port Talbot Town	5	Oct 6 – Oct 31	1 in 195
3	The New Saints	2	Mar 19 – Mar 26	1 in 70
4	Llandudno	3	Sep 4 – Sep 19	1 in 64
5	Rhyl	4	Sep 19 – Oct 3	1 in 50

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rhyl	5	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 35
2	The New Saints	21	Aug 22 – Jan 1	1 in 28
3	Aberystwyth Town	7	Sep 18 – Oct 17	1 in 21
4	Bala Town	9	Dec 15 – Feb 13	1 in 20
5	Llandudno	6	Sep 22 – Oct 16	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rhyl	17	Oct 30 – Mar 28	1 in 532
2	The New Saints	3	Dec 11 – Dec 26	1 in 27
3	Haverfordwest County	12	Jan 9 – Apr 23	1 in 26
4	Llandudno	4	Aug 28 – Sep 19	1 in 10
5	Airbus UK	5	Jan 16 – Feb 27	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1416	64	-9	6	10.6	-4.6
Bala Town	1292	57	+2	8	8.1	-0.1
Llandudno	1222	52	-7	7	6.8	+0.2
Connah's Quay Nomads	1185	48	+9	9	5.9	+3.1
Carmarthen Town	1128	47	-2	7	7.4	-0.4
Aberystwyth Town	1186	46	+22	10	8.4	+1.6
Bangor City	1131	45	-7	8	7.8	+0.2
Newtown	1118	42	+13	8	4.2	+3.8
Airbus UK	1194	42	-9	4	6.0	-2.0
Port Talbot Town	1094	39	+4	10	7.2	+2.8
Rhyl	1087	27	+9	7	6.2	+0.8
Haverfordwest County	998	21	-22	1	4.7	-3.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AU	BT	BC	CT	CQN	HC	LLA	NEW	PTT	RHY	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	0-0-2 2.35	1-1-0 2.15	3-1-0 6.00	1-0-3 6.51	1-1-0 3.49	3-0-1 7.82	0-0-2 2.63	0-1-1 3.10	1-1-2 6.51	3-1-0 6.62	0-1-1 1.30
Airbus UK	2-0-0 3.15	—	1-0-3 4.78	0-0-2 3.63	2-0-0 3.65	1-1-2 6.10	2-0-0 4.13	0-1-3 5.80	2-1-1 6.94	1-1-0 3.54	0-1-1 3.64	1-1-2 2.92
Bala Town	0-1-1 3.36	3-0-1 6.22	—	1-1-0 3.62	1-1-0 3.84	3-0-1 7.33	2-0-0 4.29	1-2-1 6.34	2-2-0 7.62	1-1-0 3.63	1-1-0 3.92	0-3-1 3.54
Bangor City	0-1-3 4.99	2-0-0 1.90	0-1-1 1.91	—	1-1-2 6.00	2-0-0 2.94	2-1-1 7.17	1-0-1 2.00	2-0-0 2.58	0-1-3 6.05	3-1-0 6.05	0-0-2 1.15
Carmarthen Town	3-0-1 4.50	0-0-2 1.88	0-1-1 1.71	2-1-1 4.99	—	1-0-1 2.80	3-1-0 6.66	1-0-1 1.89	0-0-2 2.48	2-1-1 5.78	2-1-1 5.77	0-0-2 1.06
Connah's Quay Nomads	0-1-1 2.02	2-1-1 4.89	1-0-3 3.73	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 2.69	—	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-2 4.42	1-0-3 5.99	2-0-0 2.65	2-0-0 2.87	2-1-1 2.30
Haverfordwest County	1-0-3 3.30	0-0-2 1.45	0-0-2 1.32	1-1-2 3.88	0-1-3 4.36	0-0-2 2.19	—	1-0-1 1.55	0-0-2 2.10	1-1-2 4.03	1-3-0 4.31	0-0-2 0.86
Llandudno	2-0-0 2.87	3-1-0 5.19	1-2-1 4.66	1-0-1 3.52	1-0-1 3.64	2-0-2 6.59	1-0-1 4.02	—	2-1-1 6.93	1-1-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.36	0-1-3 2.98
Newtown	1-1-0 2.40	1-1-2 4.09	0-2-2 3.47	0-0-2 2.92	2-0-0 3.01	3-0-1 5.01	2-0-0 3.41	1-1-2 4.10	—	0-2-0 2.68	0-1-1 2.96	1-1-2 2.10
Port Talbot Town	2-1-1 4.51	0-1-1 1.98	0-1-1 1.90	3-1-0 4.95	1-1-2 5.21	0-0-2 2.85	2-1-1 7.01	0-1-1 2.25	0-2-0 2.82	—	2-0-2 6.35	0-0-2 1.21
Rhyl	0-1-3 4.40	1-1-0 1.88	0-1-1 1.64	0-1-3 4.94	1-1-2 5.22	0-0-2 2.62	0-3-1 6.71	0-1-1 2.15	1-1-0 2.54	2-0-2 4.65	—	0-2-0 1.06
The New Saints	1-1-0 4.31	2-1-1 8.25	1-3-0 7.54	2-0-0 4.50	2-0-0 4.61	1-1-2 8.99	2-0-0 4.85	3-1-0 8.17	2-1-1 9.23	2-0-0 4.42	0-2-0 4.61	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.83	+9.9
Allowed	0.59	-8.3
Differential	0.82	+5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.29%	5.99%	6.25%	3.65%	2.08%	1.04%	26.30%
1	5.99%	12.50%	7.55%	2.86%	2.08%	0.78%	31.77%
2	6.25%	7.55%	4.17%	3.12%	1.04%	0.52%	22.66%
3	3.65%	2.86%	3.12%	—	1.04%	—	10.68%
4	2.08%	2.08%	1.04%	1.04%	—	—	6.25%
5+	1.04%	0.78%	0.52%	—	—	—	2.34%
Total	26.30%	31.77%	22.66%	10.68%	6.25%	2.34%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.46	1.46	+0.00
SD	1.30	1.30	1.96
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	15.62%
1	12.50%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	40.62%
2	—	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	28.12%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.47	+0.12
SD	1.16	1.32	1.88
CV	0.73	0.90	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	21.88%
3	6.25%	—	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	28.12%	25.00%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.72	-0.28
SD	1.27	1.42	2.13
CV	0.88	0.83	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	21.88%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
1	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	21.88%
2	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	43.75%	31.25%	21.88%	3.12%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	0.84	+0.66
SD	1.34	0.88	1.38
CV	0.90	1.05	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	28.12%
1	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
2	—	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
3	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	18.75%	28.12%	31.25%	15.62%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.62	-0.09
SD	1.44	1.16	2.02
CV	0.94	0.71	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	6.25%	25.00%
2	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	34.38%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	31.25%	15.62%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.62	-0.22
SD	1.21	1.62	2.11
CV	0.86	1.00	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	21.88%
1	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	21.88%	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	40.62%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	40.62%	15.62%	15.62%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.31	+0.25
SD	1.24	1.12	1.87
CV	0.80	0.85	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	37.50%
1	—	15.62%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	40.62%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	21.88%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	28.12%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.84	1.78	-0.94
SD	0.77	1.16	1.37
CV	0.91	0.65	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
1	12.50%	15.62%	12.50%	—	—	3.12%	43.75%
2	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
3	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
4	—	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.12%	21.88%	37.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.44	+0.22
SD	1.36	1.24	1.74
CV	0.82	0.86	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	—	15.62%	—	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	15.62%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	25.00%
2	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	34.38%	18.75%	21.88%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.69	-0.25
SD	1.24	1.38	2.13
CV	0.86	0.82	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	34.38%
1	3.12%	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	25.00%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.88%	31.25%	21.88%	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.75	-0.53
SD	1.18	1.55	2.18
CV	0.97	0.88	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	6.25%	21.88%	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	50.00%
2	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	37.50%	15.62%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	1.56	-0.44
SD	1.13	1.32	1.64
CV	1.00	0.84	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
1	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	21.88%
2	21.88%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
5+	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	53.12%	25.00%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.75	+1.50
SD	1.76	0.95	2.03
CV	0.78	1.27	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1416	64	47.84	+16.16	46.0%	31	39	44	48	51	56	64
Bala Town	1292	57	38.47	+18.53	66.0%	25	29	34	38	43	48	51
Llandudno	1222	52	33.23	+18.77	72.0%	18	23	28	33	38	45	48
Airbus UK	1194	42	34.69	+7.31	48.0%	16	24	30	35	39	45	49
Aberystwyth Town	1186	46	32.94	+13.06	17.0%	17	21	28	33	38	42	48
Connah's Quay Nomads	1185	48	26.45	+21.55	88.0%	18	19	23	26	30	34	41
Bangor City	1131	45	27.61	+17.39	67.0%	15	19	23	28	31	36	40
Carmarthen Town	1128	47	25.45	+21.55	73.0%	12	15	21	26	29	36	39
Newtown	1118	42	27.22	+14.78	77.0%	14	17	21	26	32	38	43
Port Talbot Town	1094	39	28.11	+10.89	22.0%	17	19	25	28	32	38	41
Rhyl	1087	27	24.55	+2.45	22.0%	8	15	20	24	28	35	48
Haverfordwest County	998	21	18.87	+2.13	41.0%	8	10	14	19	22	29	32

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+3.12%

No Edge

39.58%23.96%36.46%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 10.86 Elo pts.

180 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.08 goals

Neutral

-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.5

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

81%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.78 * Some Luck: 4.78 to 7.17 * Lucky: 7.17 to 9.56 * Wild Swing: 9.56 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.52 * Close: 1.52 to 2.28 * Off: 2.28 to 3.04 * Way Off: 3.04 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.91 points

As Expected

05.9815

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

01.904

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

88.00%

Connah's Quay Nomads

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

17.00%

Aberystwyth Town

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 99.58

1.56

Coin-Flip Parity

122.33

Interquartile Edge

66%

Even

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Even

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Very Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Occasional

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.62

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.31

Very Even

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.43

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.55

Some Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Shaky

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.81

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.95

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.060

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	81.00%	15.00%	3.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	10.00%	35.00%	19.00%	15.00%	9.00%	5.00%	3.00%	3.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Llandudno	2.00%	15.00%	11.00%	15.00%	16.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	3.00%	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	11.00%	10.00%	12.00%	12.00%	18.00%	17.00%	10.00%	3.00%
Newtown	—	3.00%	11.00%	6.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	10.00%	13.00%	14.00%	13.00%	6.00%
Airbus UK	4.00%	13.00%	25.00%	16.00%	19.00%	5.00%	5.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—
Carmarthen Town	—	—	4.00%	2.00%	8.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	11.00%	12.00%	15.00%	13.00%
Aberystwyth Town	2.00%	13.00%	15.00%	19.00%	9.00%	15.00%	5.00%	7.00%	7.00%	4.00%	1.00%	3.00%
Bangor City	—	2.00%	4.00%	10.00%	6.00%	16.00%	14.00%	15.00%	11.00%	11.00%	8.00%	3.00%
Port Talbot Town	—	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	15.00%	17.00%	9.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Rhyl	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	11.00%	8.00%	10.00%	22.00%	17.00%	12.00%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	4.00%	8.00%	7.00%	19.00%	55.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	94.96%	4.84%	0.19%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	4.62%	75.01%	15.60%	3.92%	0.77%	0.08%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Llandudno	0.36%	14.54%	50.22%	22.10%	10.04%	2.74%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	0.04%	2.66%	15.22%	32.45%	32.00%	17.63%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	0.01%	0.62%	4.30%	12.32%	25.86%	56.89%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	0.01%	2.33%	14.47%	29.20%	31.33%	22.66%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	31.05%	29.70%	23.61%	11.92%	3.37%	0.35%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	43.47%	28.88%	18.13%	7.59%	1.87%	0.06%
Bangor City	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.14%	27.96%	29.90%	16.41%	4.97%	0.62%
Port Talbot Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.68%	10.78%	20.79%	40.48%	19.65%	3.62%
Rhyl	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.65%	2.45%	6.65%	19.53%	52.00%	18.72%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.23%	0.92%	4.07%	18.14%	76.63%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bala Town	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Llandudno	98.00%	2.00%
Aberystwyth Town	95.00%	5.00%
Bangor City	88.00%	12.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	88.00%	12.00%
Newtown	87.00%	13.00%
Port Talbot Town	79.00%	21.00%
Carmarthen Town	70.00%	30.00%
Rhyl	70.00%	30.00%
Haverfordwest County	25.00%	75.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
Bala Town	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
Llandudno	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Aberystwyth Town	98.07%	1.93%
Carmarthen Town	96.28%	3.72%
Bangor City	94.41%	5.59%
Port Talbot Town	76.73%	23.27%
Rhyl	29.28%	70.72%
Haverfordwest County	5.23%	94.77%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2015-08-21	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.1	1123	1130	38.08%	25.41%	36.51%	+0.02	-0.1	1
2015-08-21	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	53.1	1130	1123	36.51%	25.41%	38.08%	-0.02	+0.0	1
2015-08-22	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	51.7	1199	1181	41.61%	25.28%	33.11%	+0.16	+4.4	3
2015-08-22	@ Llandudno	L 2-3	51.7	1181	1199	33.11%	25.28%	41.61%	-0.16	-4.4	0
2015-08-22	Bala Town	D 0-0	48.9	1163	1241	28.73%	24.80%	46.46%	-0.37	+0.6	1
2015-08-22	@ Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.9	1241	1163	46.46%	24.80%	28.73%	+0.37	-0.6	1
2015-08-22	Carmarthen Town	W 5-1	34.4	1247	1117	56.40%	22.67%	20.92%	+0.78	+9.8	3
2015-08-22	@ Airbus UK	L 1-5	34.4	1117	1247	20.92%	22.67%	56.40%	-0.78	-9.8	0
2015-08-22	Newtown	L 0-2	39.0	1111	1111	39.18%	25.39%	35.44%	+0.06	-10.5	0
2015-08-22	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	39.0	1111	1111	35.44%	25.39%	39.18%	-0.06	+10.5	3
2015-08-22	The New Saints	L 0-4	25.4	1057	1370	11.05%	15.83%	73.12%	-1.67	-5.8	0
2015-08-22	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	25.4	1370	1057	73.12%	15.83%	11.05%	+1.67	+5.8	3
2015-08-28	Llandudno	D 1-1	55.2	1375	1203	61.35%	21.03%	17.61%	+1.02	-1.4	4
2015-08-28	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.2	1203	1375	17.61%	21.03%	61.35%	-1.02	+1.3	4
2015-08-28	Rhyl	W 3-1	41.7	1177	1123	46.65%	24.78%	28.57%	+0.36	+7.1	3
2015-08-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	41.7	1123	1177	28.57%	24.78%	46.65%	-0.36	-7.1	1
2015-08-29	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	41.0	1107	1101	39.97%	25.36%	34.67%	+0.09	+5.1	3
2015-08-29	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	41.0	1101	1107	34.67%	25.36%	39.97%	-0.09	-5.1	0
2015-08-29	Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	32.8	1121	1051	48.82%	24.44%	26.74%	+0.45	+11.3	6
2015-08-29	@ Newtown	L 0-3	32.8	1051	1121	26.74%	24.44%	48.82%	-0.45	-11.3	0
2015-08-29	Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	46.6	1130	1164	34.38%	25.35%	40.27%	-0.13	-4.8	1
2015-08-29	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	46.6	1164	1130	40.27%	25.35%	34.38%	+0.13	+4.8	4
2015-08-31	Airbus UK	W 2-1	48.0	1241	1256	36.88%	25.41%	37.71%	-0.03	+5.1	4
2015-08-31	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	48.0	1256	1241	37.71%	25.41%	36.88%	+0.03	-5.1	3
2015-09-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	48.8	1169	1184	36.91%	25.41%	37.68%	-0.03	+7.9	7
2015-09-04	@ Port Talbot Town	L 2-4	48.8	1184	1169	37.68%	25.41%	36.91%	+0.03	-7.9	3
2015-09-04	Bangor City	L 1-4	46.6	1251	1125	55.89%	22.82%	21.29%	+0.76	-17.1	3
2015-09-04	@ Airbus UK	W 4-1	46.6	1125	1251	21.29%	22.82%	55.89%	-0.76	+17.1	4
2015-09-04	Newtown	L 0-2	41.7	1205	1133	49.03%	24.40%	26.56%	+0.46	-12.6	4
2015-09-04	@ Llandudno	W 2-0	41.7	1133	1205	26.56%	24.40%	49.03%	-0.46	+12.6	9
2015-09-05	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.2	1112	1246	22.84%	23.40%	53.76%	-0.68	+1.1	4
2015-09-05	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	49.2	1246	1112	53.76%	23.40%	22.84%	+0.68	-1.0	5
2015-09-05	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	44.6	1096	1040	46.88%	24.74%	28.38%	+0.37	+4.1	3
2015-09-05	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	44.6	1040	1096	28.38%	24.74%	46.88%	-0.37	-4.1	0
2015-09-05	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.0	1116	1374	13.79%	18.35%	67.87%	-1.37	+1.9	2
2015-09-05	@ Rhyl	D 0-0	51.0	1374	1116	67.87%	18.35%	13.79%	+1.37	-1.9	5
2015-09-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	32.2	1245	1100	58.20%	22.12%	19.68%	+0.86	+5.8	8
2015-09-11	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	32.2	1100	1245	19.68%	22.12%	58.20%	-0.86	-5.8	3
2015-09-12	Airbus UK	L 1-2	45.7	1176	1234	31.17%	25.12%	43.72%	-0.26	-4.4	3
2015-09-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	45.7	1234	1176	43.72%	25.12%	31.17%	+0.26	+4.4	6
2015-09-12	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	49.2	1143	1113	43.32%	25.15%	31.53%	+0.23	-5.7	4
2015-09-12	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	49.2	1113	1143	31.53%	25.15%	43.32%	-0.23	+5.7	7
2015-09-12	Llandudno	W 2-0	43.3	1036	1192	20.87%	22.65%	56.47%	-0.80	+14.1	3
2015-09-12	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	43.3	1192	1036	56.47%	22.65%	20.87%	+0.80	-14.1	4
2015-09-12	Port Talbot Town	W 3-1	37.1	1372	1176	63.95%	20.03%	16.02%	+1.15	+4.1	8
2015-09-12	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	37.1	1176	1372	16.02%	20.03%	63.95%	-1.15	-4.1	7
2015-09-12	Rhyl	L 1-2	49.2	1145	1118	43.04%	25.17%	31.79%	+0.21	-5.7	9
2015-09-12	@ Newtown	W 2-1	49.2	1118	1145	31.79%	25.17%	43.04%	-0.21	+5.7	5
2015-09-18	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	34.6	1119	1172	31.80%	25.18%	43.02%	-0.23	-13.0	7
2015-09-18	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	34.6	1172	1119	43.02%	25.18%	31.80%	+0.23	+13.0	6
2015-09-18	Bangor City	W 3-0	31.3	1251	1137	54.41%	23.23%	22.36%	+0.69	+9.6	11
2015-09-18	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	31.3	1137	1251	22.36%	23.23%	54.41%	-0.69	-9.6	4
2015-09-19	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	50.7	1123	1050	49.23%	24.37%	26.40%	+0.47	-6.3	5
2015-09-19	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	50.7	1050	1123	26.40%	24.37%	49.23%	-0.47	+6.3	6
2015-09-19	Llandudno	W 2-1	50.3	1094	1178	28.06%	24.69%	47.25%	-0.40	+6.1	6
2015-09-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	50.3	1178	1094	47.25%	24.69%	28.06%	+0.40	-6.1	4
2015-09-19	The New Saints	D 1-1	54.7	1238	1376	22.49%	23.27%	54.23%	-0.70	+1.0	7
2015-09-19	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	54.7	1376	1238	54.23%	23.27%	22.49%	+0.70	-1.0	9
2015-09-20	Newtown	D 1-1	53.2	1172	1140	43.74%	25.11%	31.15%	+0.24	-0.4	8
2015-09-20	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.2	1140	1172	31.15%	25.11%	43.74%	-0.24	+0.4	10
2015-09-22	Airbus UK	L 0-3	32.8	1140	1239	26.33%	24.35%	49.32%	-0.49	-11.1	10
2015-09-22	@ Newtown	W 3-0	32.8	1239	1140	49.32%	24.35%	26.33%	+0.49	+11.1	10
2015-09-22	Bala Town	D 1-1	53.5	1185	1260	29.03%	24.85%	46.12%	-0.36	+0.5	7
2015-09-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.5	1260	1185	46.12%	24.85%	29.03%	+0.36	-0.5	12
2015-09-22	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	28.5	1375	1106	71.51%	16.63%	11.87%	+1.56	+3.3	12
2015-09-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	28.5	1106	1375	11.87%	16.63%	71.51%	-1.56	-3.3	7
2015-09-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	45.8	1127	1100	42.98%	25.18%	31.84%	+0.21	+4.5	7
2015-09-22	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	45.8	1100	1127	31.84%	25.18%	42.98%	-0.21	-4.5	6
2015-09-22	Port Talbot Town	L 1-2	43.2	1056	1172	24.63%	23.94%	51.44%	-0.58	-3.6	6
2015-09-22	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	43.2	1172	1056	51.44%	23.94%	24.63%	+0.58	+3.6	11
2015-09-22	Rhyl	W 1-0	39.0	1172	1117	46.76%	24.76%	28.48%	+0.36	+4.3	7
2015-09-22	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	39.0	1117	1172	28.48%	24.76%	46.76%	-0.36	-4.3	5
2015-09-25	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	51.2	1132	1185	31.77%	25.17%	43.06%	-0.24	-4.2	7
2015-09-25	@ Bangor City	W 3-2	51.2	1185	1132	43.06%	25.17%	31.77%	+0.24	+4.3	10
2015-09-26	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	39.5	1251	1053	64.18%	19.93%	15.88%	+1.16	+2.3	13
2015-09-26	@ Airbus UK	L 1-2	39.5	1053	1251	15.88%	19.93%	64.18%	-1.16	-2.3	6
2015-09-26	Llandudno	L 1-4	42.3	1176	1176	39.06%	25.39%	35.55%	+0.06	-12.9	11
2015-09-26	@ Port Talbot Town	W 4-1	42.3	1176	1176	35.55%	25.39%	39.06%	-0.06	+12.9	10
2015-09-26	Newtown	L 0-2	37.8	1102	1129	35.32%	25.38%	39.30%	-0.09	-9.7	7
2015-09-26	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	37.8	1129	1102	39.30%	25.38%	35.32%	+0.09	+9.7	13
2015-09-26	Rhyl	W 3-1	44.6	1096	1113	36.67%	25.41%	37.92%	-0.03	+8.9	9
2015-09-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	44.6	1113	1096	37.92%	25.41%	36.67%	+0.03	-8.9	5
2015-09-26	The New Saints	D 0-0	50.2	1260	1379	24.30%	23.84%	51.85%	-0.60	+0.9	13
2015-09-26	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	50.2	1379	1260	51.85%	23.84%	24.30%	+0.60	-0.9	13
2015-10-02	Bangor City	W 2-0	29.1	1378	1128	69.60%	17.54%	12.85%	+1.45	+3.7	16
2015-10-02	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	29.1	1128	1378	12.85%	17.54%	69.60%	-1.45	-3.7	7
2015-10-03	Airbus UK	W 1-0	44.1	1189	1253	30.43%	25.03%	44.53%	-0.29	+6.2	13
2015-10-03	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	44.1	1253	1189	44.53%	25.03%	30.43%	+0.29	-6.2	13
2015-10-03	Bala Town	L 2-3	48.5	1139	1261	24.00%	23.76%	52.25%	-0.62	-3.4	13
2015-10-03	@ Newtown	W 3-2	48.5	1261	1139	52.25%	23.76%	24.00%	+0.62	+3.3	16
2015-10-03	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.5	1050	1092	33.24%	25.29%	41.47%	-0.17	+0.3	7
2015-10-03	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	48.5	1092	1050	41.47%	25.29%	33.24%	+0.17	-0.3	8
2015-10-03	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	53.5	1189	1104	50.76%	24.08%	25.17%	+0.53	-0.8	11
2015-10-03	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.5	1104	1189	25.17%	24.08%	50.76%	-0.53	+0.8	10
2015-10-03	Port Talbot Town	L 0-1	39.8	1104	1163	31.04%	25.10%	43.85%	-0.27	-4.7	5
2015-10-03	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	39.8	1163	1104	43.85%	25.10%	31.04%	+0.27	+4.7	14
2015-10-06	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	45.4	1264	1189	49.50%	24.32%	26.18%	+0.48	-6.7	16
2015-10-06	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	45.4	1189	1264	26.18%	24.32%	49.50%	-0.48	+6.7	14
2015-10-06	Bangor City	L 1-3	44.2	1105	1124	36.45%	25.41%	38.15%	-0.04	-8.6	10
2015-10-06	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	44.2	1124	1105	38.15%	25.41%	36.45%	+0.04	+8.6	10
2015-10-06	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	52.0	1167	1051	54.79%	23.13%	22.08%	+0.71	-6.9	14
2015-10-06	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-1	52.0	1051	1167	22.08%	23.13%	54.79%	-0.71	+6.9	10
2015-10-06	Llandudno	D 1-1	53.4	1099	1195	26.69%	24.43%	48.88%	-0.47	+0.7	6
2015-10-06	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	53.4	1195	1099	48.88%	24.43%	26.69%	+0.47	-0.7	14
2015-10-06	Newtown	L 1-4	46.3	1247	1135	54.13%	23.30%	22.57%	+0.68	-16.7	13
2015-10-06	@ Airbus UK	W 4-1	46.3	1135	1247	22.57%	23.30%	54.13%	-0.68	+16.7	16
2015-10-06	The New Saints	L 1-6	29.4	1092	1381	12.16%	16.91%	70.93%	-1.54	-6.7	8
2015-10-06	@ Carmarthen Town	W 6-1	29.4	1381	1092	70.93%	16.91%	12.16%	+1.54	+6.6	19
2015-10-09	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	27.9	1388	1097	73.53%	15.62%	10.85%	+1.68	+3.0	22
2015-10-09	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	27.9	1097	1388	10.85%	15.62%	73.53%	-1.68	-3.0	10
2015-10-10	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.7	1152	1195	33.06%	25.27%	41.66%	-0.18	+0.3	17
2015-10-10	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.7	1195	1152	41.66%	25.27%	33.06%	+0.18	-0.3	15
2015-10-10	Bala Town	D 0-0	48.9	1194	1257	30.58%	25.05%	44.37%	-0.29	+0.4	15
2015-10-10	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	48.9	1257	1194	44.37%	25.05%	30.58%	+0.29	-0.4	17
2015-10-10	Bangor City	W 2-1	49.9	1058	1133	29.10%	24.86%	46.04%	-0.36	+6.0	13
2015-10-10	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	49.9	1133	1058	46.04%	24.86%	29.10%	+0.36	-6.0	10
2015-10-10	Carmarthen Town	L 1-4	42.8	1100	1086	41.14%	25.31%	33.56%	+0.14	-13.4	6
2015-10-10	@ Rhyl	W 4-1	42.8	1086	1100	33.56%	25.31%	41.14%	-0.14	+13.4	11
2015-10-10	Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	35.1	1230	1161	48.73%	24.46%	26.81%	+0.45	+7.8	16
2015-10-10	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	35.1	1161	1230	26.81%	24.46%	48.73%	-0.45	-7.8	14
2015-10-16	Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	39.6	1099	1064	44.11%	25.08%	30.82%	+0.26	+10.7	14
2015-10-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-4	39.6	1064	1099	30.82%	25.08%	44.11%	-0.26	-10.7	13
2015-10-16	Llandudno	L 0-2	40.9	1238	1195	45.14%	24.97%	29.89%	+0.30	-11.8	16
2015-10-16	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	40.9	1195	1238	29.89%	24.97%	45.14%	-0.30	+11.8	18
2015-10-16	Newtown	W 1-0	37.2	1257	1152	53.27%	23.52%	23.22%	+0.64	+3.6	20
2015-10-16	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	37.2	1152	1257	23.22%	23.52%	53.27%	-0.64	-3.6	17
2015-10-16	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.5	1127	1391	13.45%	18.06%	68.49%	-1.41	-3.9	10
2015-10-16	@ Bangor City	W 2-0	29.5	1391	1127	68.49%	18.06%	13.45%	+1.41	+3.9	25
2015-10-17	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	43.8	1094	1195	26.10%	24.30%	49.59%	-0.50	-3.8	10
2015-10-17	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	43.8	1195	1094	49.59%	24.30%	26.10%	+0.50	+3.8	18
2015-10-17	Rhyl	L 0-3	39.4	1153	1086	48.33%	24.52%	27.15%	+0.43	-18.0	14
2015-10-17	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	39.4	1086	1153	27.15%	24.52%	48.33%	-0.43	+18.1	9
2015-10-23	Airbus UK	W 1-0	45.8	1104	1226	24.03%	23.77%	52.21%	-0.61	+7.0	12
2015-10-23	@ Rhyl	L 0-1	45.8	1226	1104	52.21%	23.77%	24.03%	+0.61	-7.0	16
2015-10-23	The New Saints	L 0-4	29.6	1199	1395	17.74%	21.11%	61.15%	-1.03	-10.0	18
2015-10-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	29.6	1395	1199	61.15%	21.11%	17.74%	+1.03	+9.9	28
2015-10-24	Bala Town	L 0-2	30.9	1053	1260	16.92%	20.62%	62.46%	-1.09	-5.0	13
2015-10-24	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	30.9	1260	1053	62.46%	20.62%	16.92%	+1.09	+5.0	23
2015-10-24	Bangor City	L 0-3	37.9	1149	1123	42.79%	25.19%	32.01%	+0.20	-16.4	17
2015-10-24	@ Newtown	W 3-0	37.9	1123	1149	32.01%	25.19%	42.79%	-0.20	+16.4	13
2015-10-24	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	51.5	1207	1110	52.31%	23.74%	23.95%	+0.60	-6.6	18
2015-10-24	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	51.5	1110	1207	23.95%	23.74%	52.31%	-0.60	+6.6	17
2015-10-25	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	38.2	1135	1090	45.42%	24.93%	29.64%	+0.31	-22.4	14
2015-10-25	@ Port Talbot Town	W 4-0	38.2	1090	1135	29.64%	24.93%	45.42%	-0.31	+22.4	13
2015-10-30	Llandudno	L 1-4	41.9	1189	1200	37.53%	25.41%	37.06%	+0.00	-12.5	18
2015-10-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	41.9	1200	1189	37.06%	25.41%	37.53%	+0.00	+12.5	21
2015-10-30	Rhyl	W 1-0	40.1	1139	1111	43.03%	25.18%	31.79%	+0.21	+4.8	16
2015-10-30	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	40.1	1111	1139	31.79%	25.18%	43.03%	-0.21	-4.8	12
2015-10-31	Airbus UK	L 2-3	49.2	1116	1219	25.97%	24.27%	49.76%	-0.51	-3.6	17
2015-10-31	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	49.2	1219	1116	49.76%	24.27%	25.97%	+0.51	+3.6	19
2015-10-31	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-2	47.2	1132	1112	41.97%	25.26%	32.78%	+0.17	+7.1	20
2015-10-31	@ Newtown	L 2-4	47.2	1112	1132	32.78%	25.26%	41.97%	-0.17	-7.1	13
2015-10-31	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	26.1	1405	1048	79.09%	12.68%	8.22%	+2.04	+2.2	31
2015-10-31	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	26.1	1048	1405	8.22%	12.68%	79.09%	-2.04	-2.2	13
2015-10-31	Port Talbot Town	W 5-2	38.0	1265	1112	59.15%	21.81%	19.04%	+0.91	+6.0	26
2015-10-31	@ Bala Town	L 2-5	38.0	1112	1265	19.04%	21.81%	59.15%	-0.91	-6.0	14
2015-11-06	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.3	1107	1176	29.72%	24.94%	45.34%	-0.33	+0.3	13
2015-11-06	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	59.3	1176	1107	45.34%	24.94%	29.72%	+0.33	-0.3	19
2015-11-06	Bala Town	W 2-0	40.3	1223	1271	32.36%	25.22%	42.42%	-0.21	+11.2	22
2015-11-06	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	40.3	1271	1223	42.42%	25.22%	32.36%	+0.21	-11.2	26
2015-11-07	Bangor City	W 2-0	39.5	1106	1144	33.85%	25.32%	40.83%	-0.15	+10.9	17
2015-11-07	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	39.5	1144	1106	40.83%	25.32%	33.85%	+0.15	-10.9	16
2015-11-07	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	35.7	1105	1113	38.03%	25.41%	36.56%	+0.02	+19.0	16
2015-11-07	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	35.7	1113	1105	36.56%	25.41%	38.03%	-0.02	-19.0	17
2015-11-07	Newtown	L 0-1	38.4	1046	1139	26.95%	24.48%	48.56%	-0.46	-4.2	13
2015-11-07	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	38.4	1139	1046	48.56%	24.48%	26.95%	+0.46	+4.2	23
2015-11-07	The New Saints	L 3-4	49.5	1213	1407	17.85%	21.17%	60.98%	-1.02	-2.5	21
2015-11-07	@ Llandudno	W 4-3	49.5	1407	1213	60.98%	21.17%	17.85%	+1.02	+2.4	34
2015-11-13	Rhyl	D 2-2	62.7	1409	1107	74.52%	15.11%	10.37%	+1.74	-1.5	35
2015-11-13	@ The New Saints	D 2-2	62.7	1107	1409	10.37%	15.11%	74.52%	-1.74	+1.5	14
2015-11-14	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	35.5	1042	1124	28.22%	24.72%	47.07%	-0.40	-8.1	13
2015-11-14	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	35.5	1124	1042	47.07%	24.72%	28.22%	+0.40	+8.1	19
2015-11-14	Llandudno	L 0-3	34.1	1144	1210	30.11%	25.00%	44.90%	-0.31	-12.5	23
2015-11-14	@ Newtown	W 3-0	34.1	1210	1144	44.90%	25.00%	30.11%	+0.31	+12.5	24
2015-11-15	Airbus UK	W 3-0	39.8	1133	1234	26.17%	24.32%	49.51%	-0.50	+18.4	19
2015-11-15	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	39.8	1234	1133	49.51%	24.32%	26.17%	+0.50	-18.4	22
2015-11-21	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	36.3	1215	1176	44.65%	25.02%	30.33%	+0.28	+8.6	25
2015-11-21	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	36.3	1176	1215	30.33%	25.02%	44.65%	-0.28	-8.6	19
2015-11-21	Bala Town	W 2-1	51.8	1132	1260	23.41%	23.58%	53.01%	-0.65	+6.7	22
2015-11-21	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	51.8	1260	1132	53.01%	23.58%	23.41%	+0.65	-6.7	26
2015-11-21	Bangor City	W 2-1	49.3	1094	1151	31.22%	25.12%	43.66%	-0.26	+5.7	20
2015-11-21	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	49.3	1151	1094	43.66%	25.12%	31.22%	+0.26	-5.7	19
2015-11-21	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	34.0	1223	1033	63.24%	20.31%	16.45%	+1.11	+2.6	27
2015-11-21	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	34.0	1033	1223	16.45%	20.31%	63.24%	-1.11	-2.6	13
2015-11-21	Newtown	D 1-1	53.1	1108	1131	35.90%	25.40%	38.71%	-0.07	+0.1	15
2015-11-21	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	53.1	1131	1108	38.71%	25.40%	35.90%	+0.07	-0.1	24
2015-11-22	The New Saints	L 0-1	32.1	1117	1408	12.09%	16.84%	71.08%	-1.55	-1.8	17
2015-11-22	@ Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	32.1	1408	1117	71.08%	16.84%	12.09%	+1.55	+1.8	38
2015-11-28	Airbus UK	W 4-0	29.4	1410	1224	62.85%	20.47%	16.69%	+1.09	+9.3	41
2015-11-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	29.4	1224	1410	16.69%	20.47%	62.85%	-1.09	-9.3	25
2015-11-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	37.8	1225	1139	50.93%	24.04%	25.03%	+0.54	+3.9	30
2015-11-28	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	37.8	1139	1225	25.03%	24.04%	50.93%	-0.54	-3.9	22
2015-11-28	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.1	1131	1115	41.34%	25.29%	33.37%	+0.15	-0.2	25
2015-11-28	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.1	1115	1131	33.37%	25.29%	41.34%	-0.15	+0.2	18
2015-11-28	Rhyl	D 1-1	53.2	1031	1109	28.77%	24.81%	46.42%	-0.37	+0.5	14
2015-11-28	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.2	1109	1031	46.42%	24.81%	28.77%	+0.37	-0.5	16
2015-12-11	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	56.3	1419	1167	69.74%	17.48%	12.78%	+1.46	-1.8	42
2015-12-11	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	56.3	1167	1419	12.78%	17.48%	69.74%	-1.46	+1.8	20
2015-12-11	Rhyl	D 0-0	49.2	1215	1108	53.54%	23.45%	23.01%	+0.65	-1.0	26
2015-12-11	@ Airbus UK	D 0-0	49.2	1108	1215	23.01%	23.45%	53.54%	-0.65	+1.0	17
2015-12-12	Llandudno	L 2-4	43.8	1099	1229	23.26%	23.53%	53.21%	-0.66	-5.3	20
2015-12-12	@ Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	43.8	1229	1099	53.21%	23.53%	23.26%	+0.66	+5.3	33
2015-12-12	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	35.1	1135	1116	41.87%	25.26%	32.87%	+0.17	+21.5	25
2015-12-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-5	35.1	1116	1135	32.87%	25.26%	41.87%	-0.17	-21.5	18
2015-12-15	Bala Town	D 1-1	53.6	1146	1254	25.43%	24.14%	50.43%	-0.54	+0.7	20
2015-12-15	@ Bangor City	D 1-1	53.6	1254	1146	50.43%	24.14%	25.43%	+0.54	-0.7	27
2015-12-18	Bala Town	D 1-1	55.8	1417	1253	60.47%	21.35%	18.18%	+0.97	-1.3	43
2015-12-18	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	55.8	1253	1417	18.18%	21.35%	60.47%	-0.97	+1.3	28
2015-12-19	Airbus UK	L 0-1	35.1	1031	1214	18.75%	21.66%	59.60%	-0.95	-2.9	14
2015-12-19	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	35.1	1214	1031	59.60%	21.66%	18.75%	+0.95	+2.9	29
2015-12-19	Bangor City	W 4-0	34.4	1169	1146	42.36%	25.23%	32.41%	+0.19	+17.3	23
2015-12-19	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	34.4	1146	1169	32.41%	25.23%	42.36%	-0.19	-17.3	20
2015-12-19	Carmarthen Town	W 4-1	39.6	1131	1094	44.28%	25.06%	30.66%	+0.26	+10.7	28
2015-12-19	@ Newtown	L 1-4	39.6	1094	1131	30.66%	25.06%	44.28%	-0.26	-10.7	20
2015-12-19	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	46.0	1109	1157	32.52%	25.24%	42.24%	-0.20	-4.6	17
2015-12-19	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	46.0	1157	1109	42.24%	25.24%	32.52%	+0.20	+4.6	28
2015-12-19	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	54.1	1234	1094	57.64%	22.30%	20.06%	+0.84	-1.1	34
2015-12-19	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	54.1	1094	1234	20.06%	22.30%	57.64%	-0.84	+1.2	19
2015-12-26	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	35.9	1028	1187	20.69%	22.58%	56.73%	-0.82	-3.2	14
2015-12-26	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	35.9	1187	1028	56.73%	22.58%	20.69%	+0.82	+3.2	26
2015-12-26	Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.3	1161	1217	31.48%	25.15%	43.37%	-0.25	+0.3	29
2015-12-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	53.3	1217	1161	43.37%	25.15%	31.48%	+0.25	-0.3	30
2015-12-26	Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	37.3	1095	1083	40.80%	25.32%	33.88%	+0.13	-15.8	19
2015-12-26	@ Port Talbot Town	W 3-0	37.3	1083	1095	33.88%	25.32%	40.80%	-0.13	+15.8	23
2015-12-26	The New Saints	D 2-2	62.1	1141	1416	12.91%	17.59%	69.50%	-1.46	+1.3	29
2015-12-26	@ Newtown	D 2-2	62.1	1416	1141	69.50%	17.59%	12.91%	+1.46	-1.3	44
2015-12-28	Bangor City	L 1-2	51.8	1233	1129	53.21%	23.53%	23.26%	+0.64	-6.7	34
2015-12-28	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	51.8	1129	1233	23.26%	23.53%	53.21%	-0.64	+6.7	23
2015-12-29	Bala Town	L 1-3	39.0	1104	1254	21.43%	22.88%	55.69%	-0.77	-5.5	17
2015-12-29	@ Rhyl	W 3-1	39.0	1254	1104	55.69%	22.88%	21.43%	+0.77	+5.5	31
2015-12-29	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	51.3	1190	1099	51.48%	23.93%	24.59%	+0.56	-6.5	26
2015-12-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	51.3	1099	1190	24.59%	23.93%	51.48%	-0.56	+6.5	26
2016-01-01	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	50.1	1216	1161	46.78%	24.76%	28.46%	+0.36	+3.9	33
2016-01-01	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	50.1	1161	1216	28.46%	24.76%	46.78%	-0.36	-3.9	29
2016-01-01	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	53.1	1183	1025	59.73%	21.61%	18.66%	+0.94	-7.4	26
2016-01-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	53.1	1025	1183	18.66%	21.61%	59.73%	-0.94	+7.4	17
2016-01-01	Llandudno	L 0-3	33.2	1136	1226	27.29%	24.55%	48.16%	-0.44	-11.5	23
2016-01-01	@ Bangor City	W 3-0	33.2	1226	1136	48.16%	24.55%	27.29%	+0.44	+11.5	37
2016-01-01	Newtown	W 4-1	32.0	1415	1143	71.71%	16.53%	11.76%	+1.57	+4.0	47
2016-01-01	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	32.0	1143	1415	11.76%	16.53%	71.71%	-1.57	-4.0	29
2016-01-01	Rhyl	D 0-0	49.8	1260	1099	60.02%	21.51%	18.47%	+0.95	-1.4	32
2016-01-01	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.8	1099	1260	18.47%	21.51%	60.02%	-0.95	+1.4	18
2016-01-02	Port Talbot Town	D 0-0	48.6	1106	1079	42.85%	25.19%	31.96%	+0.21	-0.3	27
2016-01-02	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.6	1079	1106	31.96%	25.19%	42.85%	-0.21	+0.3	20
2016-01-05	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	41.0	1258	1105	59.11%	21.82%	19.07%	+0.91	+2.8	35
2016-01-05	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	41.0	1105	1258	19.07%	21.82%	59.11%	-0.91	-2.8	27
2016-01-08	Newtown	W 3-0	36.4	1124	1139	37.06%	25.41%	37.53%	-0.02	+14.8	26
2016-01-08	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	36.4	1139	1124	37.53%	25.41%	37.06%	+0.02	-14.8	29
2016-01-09	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	43.9	1261	1033	67.41%	18.55%	14.04%	+1.33	+1.9	38
2016-01-09	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	43.9	1033	1261	14.04%	18.55%	67.41%	-1.33	-1.9	17
2016-01-10	Port Talbot Town	L 1-3	48.5	1176	1080	52.19%	23.77%	24.04%	+0.59	-11.5	26
2016-01-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	48.5	1080	1176	24.04%	23.77%	52.19%	-0.59	+11.5	23
2016-01-16	Airbus UK	D 2-2	59.8	1091	1220	23.32%	23.55%	53.13%	-0.66	+0.7	24
2016-01-16	@ Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.8	1220	1091	53.13%	23.55%	23.32%	+0.66	-0.7	34
2016-01-16	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	42.5	1139	1031	53.76%	23.39%	22.84%	+0.66	+3.4	29
2016-01-16	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	42.5	1031	1139	22.84%	23.39%	53.76%	-0.66	-3.4	17
2016-01-16	Llandudno	W 3-0	35.1	1263	1238	42.65%	25.21%	32.14%	+0.20	+13.1	41
2016-01-16	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	35.1	1238	1263	32.14%	25.21%	42.65%	-0.20	-13.2	37
2016-01-16	Newtown	L 1-2	49.6	1164	1124	44.82%	25.00%	30.18%	+0.28	-5.8	26
2016-01-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	49.6	1124	1164	30.18%	25.00%	44.82%	-0.28	+5.8	32
2016-01-16	Rhyl	D 1-1	53.1	1103	1100	39.43%	25.38%	35.19%	+0.07	-0.1	28
2016-01-16	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	53.1	1100	1103	35.19%	25.38%	39.43%	-0.07	+0.1	19
2016-01-16	The New Saints	W 2-0	46.2	1158	1419	13.63%	18.22%	68.15%	-1.39	+16.4	32
2016-01-16	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	46.2	1419	1158	68.15%	18.22%	13.63%	+1.39	-16.4	47

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2016-01-29	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	51.3	1402	1174	67.41%	18.55%	14.04%	+1.33	-1.9	1
2016-01-29	@ The New Saints	D 0-0	51.3	1174	1402	14.04%	18.55%	67.41%	-1.33	+1.9	1
2016-01-29	Newtown	D 1-1	54.3	1276	1130	58.35%	22.07%	19.57%	+0.87	-1.2	1
2016-01-29	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	54.3	1130	1276	19.57%	22.07%	58.35%	-0.87	+1.2	1
2016-01-29	Port Talbot Town	W 1-0	38.5	1159	1092	48.35%	24.52%	27.13%	+0.43	+4.2	3
2016-01-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	38.5	1092	1159	27.13%	24.52%	48.35%	-0.43	-4.2	0
2016-01-29	Rhyl	W 4-3	53.3	1142	1101	45.01%	24.98%	30.01%	+0.29	+4.0	3
2016-01-29	@ Bangor City	L 3-4	53.3	1101	1142	30.01%	24.98%	45.01%	-0.29	-4.0	0
2016-01-30	Airbus UK	D 1-1	53.3	1225	1220	39.87%	25.36%	34.77%	+0.09	-0.1	1
2016-01-30	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	53.3	1220	1225	34.77%	25.36%	39.87%	-0.09	+0.1	1
2016-02-12	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	39.5	1097	1163	30.16%	25.00%	44.84%	-0.31	-4.6	0
2016-02-12	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	39.5	1163	1097	44.84%	25.00%	30.16%	+0.31	+4.6	6
2016-02-12	Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	38.3	1088	1102	37.01%	25.41%	37.58%	-0.02	-10.1	0
2016-02-12	@ Port Talbot Town	W 2-0	38.3	1102	1088	37.58%	25.41%	37.01%	+0.02	+10.1	3
2016-02-13	Bala Town	L 0-3	34.9	1220	1275	31.54%	25.15%	43.31%	-0.25	-13.0	1
2016-02-13	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	34.9	1275	1220	43.31%	25.15%	31.54%	+0.25	+13.0	4
2016-02-13	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.5	1027	1146	24.27%	23.84%	51.89%	-0.60	+0.8	1
2016-02-13	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.5	1146	1027	51.89%	23.84%	24.27%	+0.60	-0.8	4
2016-02-13	Llandudno	L 2-3	51.5	1176	1225	32.34%	25.22%	42.43%	-0.21	-4.3	1
2016-02-13	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	51.5	1225	1176	42.43%	25.22%	32.34%	+0.21	+4.3	4
2016-02-13	The New Saints	L 0-6	28.2	1131	1400	13.18%	17.83%	69.00%	-1.43	-10.5	1
2016-02-13	@ Newtown	W 6-0	28.2	1400	1131	69.00%	17.83%	13.18%	+1.43	+10.5	4
2016-02-20	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	39.3	1028	1167	22.36%	23.23%	54.42%	-0.71	-5.7	1
2016-02-20	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	39.3	1167	1028	54.42%	23.23%	22.36%	+0.71	+5.7	9
2016-02-20	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	43.8	1207	1171	44.09%	25.08%	30.83%	+0.26	-6.1	1
2016-02-20	@ Airbus UK	W 1-0	43.8	1171	1207	30.83%	25.08%	44.09%	-0.26	+6.1	4
2016-02-20	Llandudno	D 1-1	53.6	1120	1229	25.36%	24.13%	50.51%	-0.54	+0.7	2
2016-02-20	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.6	1229	1120	50.51%	24.13%	25.36%	+0.54	-0.7	5
2016-02-26	Bala Town	W 3-2	55.2	1228	1288	30.98%	25.10%	43.93%	-0.27	+5.5	8
2016-02-26	@ Llandudno	L 2-3	55.2	1288	1228	43.93%	25.10%	30.98%	+0.27	-5.5	4
2016-02-27	Airbus UK	W 5-0	29.0	1411	1201	65.52%	19.38%	15.11%	+1.23	+10.3	7
2016-02-27	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	29.0	1201	1411	15.11%	19.38%	65.52%	-1.23	-10.3	1
2016-02-27	Carmarthen Town	L 2-4	51.4	1173	1113	47.53%	24.65%	27.82%	+0.40	-9.5	9
2016-02-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	51.4	1113	1173	27.82%	24.65%	47.53%	-0.40	+9.5	6
2016-02-27	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.3	1092	1022	48.76%	24.45%	26.79%	+0.45	-0.7	1
2016-02-27	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	53.3	1022	1092	26.79%	24.45%	48.76%	-0.45	+0.6	2
2016-02-27	Newtown	W 1-0	38.9	1178	1121	46.98%	24.73%	28.29%	+0.37	+4.3	7
2016-02-27	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	38.9	1121	1178	28.29%	24.73%	46.98%	-0.37	-4.3	2
2016-02-27	Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	41.5	1146	1078	48.53%	24.49%	26.98%	+0.44	-12.5	4
2016-02-27	@ Bangor City	W 2-0	41.5	1078	1146	26.98%	24.49%	48.53%	-0.44	+12.5	3
2016-03-05	Bangor City	L 0-1	41.9	1122	1133	37.53%	25.41%	37.06%	+0.00	-5.4	6
2016-03-05	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	41.9	1133	1122	37.06%	25.41%	37.53%	+0.00	+5.4	7
2016-03-11	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.6	1139	1164	35.56%	25.39%	39.05%	-0.08	+0.1	8
2016-03-11	@ Bangor City	D 0-0	48.6	1164	1139	39.05%	25.39%	35.56%	+0.08	-0.1	10
2016-03-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	40.1	1282	1182	52.74%	23.64%	23.62%	+0.62	+6.0	7
2016-03-11	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	40.1	1182	1282	23.62%	23.64%	52.74%	-0.62	-6.0	7
2016-03-11	Llandudno	W 2-0	32.0	1421	1234	63.06%	20.38%	16.56%	+1.10	+4.9	10
2016-03-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	32.0	1234	1421	16.56%	20.38%	63.06%	-1.10	-4.9	8
2016-03-12	Airbus UK	L 0-3	33.8	1117	1190	29.28%	24.88%	45.84%	-0.35	-12.2	2
2016-03-12	@ Newtown	W 3-0	33.8	1190	1117	45.84%	24.88%	29.28%	+0.35	+12.2	4
2016-03-12	Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.2	1023	1090	30.04%	24.99%	44.97%	-0.31	+0.4	3
2016-03-12	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.2	1090	1023	44.97%	24.99%	30.04%	+0.31	-0.4	4
2016-03-12	Rhyl	W 2-0	36.8	1117	1091	42.70%	25.20%	32.10%	+0.20	+9.0	9
2016-03-12	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	36.8	1091	1117	32.10%	25.20%	42.70%	-0.20	-9.0	1
2016-03-15	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.2	1288	1426	22.50%	23.28%	54.23%	-0.70	+1.1	8
2016-03-15	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	51.2	1426	1288	54.23%	23.28%	22.50%	+0.70	-1.1	11
2016-03-18	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.3	1090	1163	29.25%	24.88%	45.88%	-0.35	+0.4	5
2016-03-18	@ Port Talbot Town	D 2-2	59.3	1163	1090	45.88%	24.88%	29.25%	+0.35	-0.4	11
2016-03-19	Bala Town	D 2-2	60.4	1105	1289	18.57%	21.57%	59.87%	-0.96	+1.0	3
2016-03-19	@ Newtown	D 2-2	60.4	1289	1105	59.87%	21.57%	18.57%	+0.96	-1.0	9
2016-03-19	Bangor City	L 3-4	53.7	1082	1139	31.38%	25.14%	43.48%	-0.25	-4.1	1
2016-03-19	@ Rhyl	W 4-3	53.7	1139	1082	43.48%	25.14%	31.38%	+0.25	+4.1	11
2016-03-19	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	43.7	1023	1126	26.02%	24.28%	49.70%	-0.51	-3.8	3
2016-03-19	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	43.7	1126	1023	49.70%	24.28%	26.02%	+0.51	+3.8	12
2016-03-19	Llandudno	L 3-4	55.2	1203	1229	35.38%	25.38%	39.24%	-0.09	-4.5	4
2016-03-19	@ Airbus UK	W 4-3	55.2	1229	1203	39.24%	25.38%	35.38%	+0.09	+4.5	11
2016-03-19	The New Saints	W 2-1	55.3	1176	1425	14.31%	18.77%	66.92%	-1.32	+8.1	10
2016-03-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	55.3	1425	1176	66.92%	18.77%	14.31%	+1.32	-8.1	11
2016-03-25	Airbus UK	W 3-1	40.6	1288	1198	51.47%	23.93%	24.60%	+0.56	+6.3	12
2016-03-25	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	40.6	1198	1288	24.60%	23.93%	51.47%	-0.56	-6.2	4
2016-03-25	Port Talbot Town	L 2-3	55.0	1129	1090	44.67%	25.02%	30.31%	+0.28	-5.5	12
2016-03-25	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	55.0	1090	1129	30.31%	25.02%	44.67%	-0.28	+5.5	8
2016-03-25	Rhyl	W 3-1	40.4	1163	1078	50.74%	24.08%	25.18%	+0.53	+6.4	14
2016-03-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	40.4	1078	1163	25.18%	24.08%	50.74%	-0.53	-6.4	1
2016-03-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	50.1	1233	1184	46.02%	24.86%	29.12%	+0.33	-6.0	11
2016-03-26	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	50.1	1184	1233	29.12%	24.86%	46.02%	-0.33	+6.0	13
2016-03-26	Newtown	L 1-2	56.2	1417	1106	75.30%	14.71%	9.99%	+1.79	-8.8	11
2016-03-26	@ The New Saints	W 2-1	56.2	1106	1417	9.99%	14.71%	75.30%	-1.79	+8.8	6
2016-03-28	Rhyl	W 4-0	34.3	1096	1072	42.48%	25.22%	32.30%	+0.19	+17.2	11
2016-03-28	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-4	34.3	1072	1096	32.30%	25.22%	42.48%	-0.19	-17.2	1
2016-04-02	Haverfordwest County	W 5-2	38.9	1143	1020	55.58%	22.91%	21.51%	+0.74	+6.8	14
2016-04-02	@ Bangor City	L 2-5	38.9	1020	1143	21.51%	22.91%	55.58%	-0.74	-6.8	3
2016-04-05	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	36.7	1124	1013	54.08%	23.31%	22.60%	+0.68	+3.5	15
2016-04-05	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	36.7	1013	1124	22.60%	23.31%	54.08%	-0.68	-3.5	3
2016-04-08	Airbus UK	W 2-1	47.1	1190	1192	38.86%	25.39%	35.74%	+0.05	+4.9	16
2016-04-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	47.1	1192	1190	35.74%	25.39%	38.86%	-0.05	-4.9	4
2016-04-08	Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	37.6	1169	1009	59.97%	21.53%	18.50%	+0.95	+4.8	17
2016-04-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	37.6	1009	1169	18.50%	21.53%	59.97%	-0.95	-4.7	3
2016-04-08	Newtown	W 3-2	47.8	1227	1114	54.31%	23.25%	22.43%	+0.69	+3.1	14
2016-04-08	@ Llandudno	L 2-3	47.8	1114	1227	22.43%	23.25%	54.31%	-0.69	-3.2	6
2016-04-09	Bala Town	W 2-0	35.2	1408	1295	54.37%	23.24%	22.39%	+0.69	+6.6	14
2016-04-09	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	35.2	1295	1408	22.39%	23.24%	54.37%	-0.69	-6.6	12
2016-04-09	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	59.2	1150	1128	42.25%	25.24%	32.52%	+0.18	-0.2	15
2016-04-09	@ Bangor City	D 2-2	59.2	1128	1150	32.52%	25.24%	42.25%	-0.18	+0.2	16
2016-04-09	Port Talbot Town	W 5-0	38.3	1055	1113	31.15%	25.11%	43.74%	-0.26	+26.8	4
2016-04-09	@ Rhyl	L 0-5	38.3	1113	1055	43.74%	25.11%	31.15%	+0.26	-26.8	11
2016-04-16	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	43.2	1128	1174	32.65%	25.25%	42.10%	-0.20	+5.9	19
2016-04-16	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	43.2	1174	1128	42.10%	25.25%	32.65%	+0.20	-5.9	17
2016-04-16	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.2	1086	1149	30.51%	25.04%	44.45%	-0.29	+0.4	12
2016-04-16	@ Port Talbot Town	D 1-1	53.2	1149	1086	44.45%	25.04%	30.51%	+0.29	-0.4	16
2016-04-16	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	55.7	1111	1195	28.09%	24.70%	47.21%	-0.40	+5.8	9
2016-04-16	@ Newtown	L 2-3	55.7	1195	1111	47.21%	24.70%	28.09%	+0.40	-5.8	16
2016-04-16	Llandudno	D 0-0	49.2	1288	1231	47.14%	24.71%	28.15%	+0.38	-0.6	13
2016-04-16	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.2	1231	1288	28.15%	24.71%	47.14%	-0.38	+0.6	15
2016-04-16	Rhyl	D 1-1	53.2	1005	1081	28.88%	24.82%	46.30%	-0.37	+0.5	4
2016-04-16	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.2	1081	1005	46.30%	24.82%	28.88%	+0.37	-0.5	5
2016-04-16	The New Saints	W 3-2	60.3	1187	1415	15.59%	19.73%	64.68%	-1.20	+7.5	7
2016-04-16	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	60.3	1415	1187	64.68%	19.73%	15.59%	+1.20	-7.5	14
2016-04-23	Bala Town	L 0-1	38.5	1189	1288	26.44%	24.38%	49.19%	-0.49	-4.1	16
2016-04-23	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	38.5	1288	1189	49.19%	24.38%	26.44%	+0.49	+4.1	16
2016-04-23	Bangor City	W 4-0	34.6	1168	1149	41.87%	25.26%	32.87%	+0.17	+17.5	20
2016-04-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	34.6	1149	1168	32.87%	25.26%	41.87%	-0.17	-17.5	16
2016-04-23	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	43.4	1081	1134	31.85%	25.18%	42.97%	-0.23	+6.0	8
2016-04-23	@ Rhyl	L 0-1	43.4	1134	1081	42.97%	25.18%	31.85%	+0.23	-6.0	19
2016-04-23	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	34.5	1086	1005	50.29%	24.17%	25.54%	+0.51	+7.5	15
2016-04-23	@ Port Talbot Town	L 0-2	34.5	1005	1086	25.54%	24.17%	50.29%	-0.51	-7.5	4
2016-04-23	Newtown	D 2-2	59.5	1194	1117	49.75%	24.27%	25.97%	+0.49	-0.5	8
2016-04-23	@ Airbus UK	D 2-2	59.5	1117	1194	25.97%	24.27%	49.75%	-0.49	+0.5	10
2016-04-23	The New Saints	L 1-5	34.7	1231	1407	19.23%	21.90%	58.87%	-0.92	-9.0	15
2016-04-23	@ Llandudno	W 5-1	34.7	1407	1231	58.87%	21.90%	19.23%	+0.92	+9.0	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-03-26	9.99%	Newtown	1106	2	@ The New Saints	1417	1
2	2016-01-16	13.63%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1158	2	The New Saints	1419	0
3	2016-03-19	14.31%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1176	2	The New Saints	1425	1
4	2016-04-16	15.59%	@ Airbus UK	1187	3	The New Saints	1415	2
5	2016-01-01	18.66%	Haverfordwest County	1025	2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1183	1
6	2015-09-12	20.87%	@ Haverfordwest County	1036	2	Llandudno	1192	0
7	2015-09-04	21.29%	Bangor City	1125	4	@ Airbus UK	1251	1
8	2015-10-06	22.08%	Haverfordwest County	1051	2	@ Port Talbot Town	1167	1
9	2015-10-06	22.57%	Newtown	1135	4	@ Airbus UK	1247	1
10	2015-12-28	23.26%	Bangor City	1129	2	@ Llandudno	1233	1
11	2015-11-21	23.41%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1132	2	Bala Town	1260	1
12	2015-10-24	23.95%	Carmarthen Town	1110	2	@ Llandudno	1207	1
13	2015-10-23	24.03%	@ Rhyl	1104	1	Airbus UK	1226	0
14	2016-01-10	24.04%	Port Talbot Town	1080	3	@ Aberystwyth Town	1176	1
15	2015-12-29	24.59%	Carmarthen Town	1099	2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1190	1
16	2015-11-15	26.17%	@ Bangor City	1133	3	Airbus UK	1234	0
17	2015-10-06	26.18%	Aberystwyth Town	1189	1	@ Bala Town	1264	0
18	2015-09-19	26.40%	Haverfordwest County	1050	2	@ Rhyl	1123	1
19	2015-09-04	26.56%	Newtown	1133	2	@ Llandudno	1205	0
20	2016-02-27	26.98%	Port Talbot Town	1078	2	@ Bangor City	1146	0
21	2015-10-17	27.15%	Rhyl	1086	3	@ Port Talbot Town	1153	0
22	2016-02-27	27.82%	Carmarthen Town	1113	4	@ Aberystwyth Town	1173	2
23	2015-09-19	28.06%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1094	2	Llandudno	1178	1
24	2016-04-16	28.09%	@ Newtown	1111	3	Connah's Quay Nomads	1195	2
25	2015-10-10	29.10%	@ Haverfordwest County	1058	2	Bangor City	1133	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-04-09	26.83	@ Rhyl	5	1055	31.15%	Port Talbot Town	0	1113	43.74%	25.11%
2	2015-10-25	22.43	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1090	29.64%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1135	45.42%	24.93%
3	2015-12-12	21.55	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1135	41.87%	Port Talbot Town	0	1116	32.87%	25.26%
4	2015-11-07	18.98	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1105	38.03%	Carmarthen Town	0	1113	36.56%	25.41%
5	2015-11-15	18.41	@ Bangor City	3	1133	26.17%	Airbus UK	0	1234	49.51%	24.32%
6	2015-10-17	18.05	Rhyl	3	1086	27.15%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1153	48.33%	24.52%
7	2016-04-23	17.49	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1168	41.87%	Bangor City	0	1149	32.87%	25.26%
8	2015-12-19	17.29	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1169	42.36%	Bangor City	0	1146	32.41%	25.23%
9	2016-03-28	17.24	@ Port Talbot Town	4	1096	42.48%	Rhyl	0	1072	32.30%	25.22%
10	2015-09-04	17.14	Bangor City	4	1125	21.29%	@ Airbus UK	1	1251	55.89%	22.82%
11	2015-10-06	16.70	Newtown	4	1135	22.57%	@ Airbus UK	1	1247	54.13%	23.30%
12	2015-10-24	16.38	Bangor City	3	1123	32.01%	@ Newtown	0	1149	42.79%	25.19%
13	2016-01-16	16.38	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1158	13.63%	The New Saints	0	1419	68.15%	18.22%
14	2015-12-26	15.78	Carmarthen Town	3	1083	33.88%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1095	40.80%	25.32%
15	2016-01-08	14.82	@ Bangor City	3	1124	37.06%	Newtown	0	1139	37.53%	25.41%
16	2015-09-12	14.12	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1036	20.87%	Llandudno	0	1192	56.47%	22.65%
17	2015-10-10	13.39	Carmarthen Town	4	1086	33.56%	@ Rhyl	1	1100	41.14%	25.31%
18	2016-01-16	13.15	@ Bala Town	3	1263	42.65%	Llandudno	0	1238	32.14%	25.21%
19	2015-09-18	13.04	Aberystwyth Town	3	1172	43.02%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1119	31.80%	25.18%
20	2016-02-13	12.96	Bala Town	3	1275	43.31%	@ Airbus UK	0	1220	31.54%	25.15%
21	2015-09-26	12.87	Llandudno	4	1176	35.55%	@ Port Talbot Town	1	1176	39.06%	25.39%
22	2015-09-04	12.57	Newtown	2	1133	26.56%	@ Llandudno	0	1205	49.03%	24.40%
23	2015-10-30	12.49	Llandudno	4	1200	37.06%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1189	37.53%	25.41%
24	2015-11-14	12.48	Llandudno	3	1210	44.90%	@ Newtown	0	1144	30.11%	25.00%
25	2016-02-27	12.47	Port Talbot Town	2	1078	26.98%	@ Bangor City	0	1146	48.53%	24.49%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-11-13	62.7	@ The New Saints	2	1409	74.52%	Rhyl	2	1107	10.37%	15.11%
2	2015-12-26	62.1	@ Newtown	2	1141	12.91%	The New Saints	2	1416	69.50%	17.59%
3	2016-03-19	60.4	@ Newtown	2	1105	18.57%	Bala Town	2	1289	59.87%	21.57%
4	2016-04-16	60.3	@ Airbus UK	3	1187	15.59%	The New Saints	2	1415	64.68%	19.73%
5	2016-01-16	59.8	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1091	23.32%	Airbus UK	2	1220	53.13%	23.55%
6	2016-04-23	59.5	@ Airbus UK	2	1194	49.75%	Newtown	2	1117	25.97%	24.27%
7	2015-11-06	59.3	@ Rhyl	2	1107	29.72%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1176	45.34%	24.94%
8	2016-03-18	59.3	@ Port Talbot Town	2	1090	29.25%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1163	45.88%	24.88%
9	2016-04-09	59.2	@ Bangor City	2	1150	42.25%	Carmarthen Town	2	1128	32.52%	25.24%
10	2015-12-11	56.3	@ The New Saints	1	1419	69.74%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1167	12.78%	17.48%
11	2016-03-26	56.2	Newtown	2	1106	9.99%	@ The New Saints	1	1417	75.30%	14.71%
12	2015-12-18	55.8	@ The New Saints	1	1417	60.47%	Bala Town	1	1253	18.18%	21.35%
13	2016-04-16	55.7	@ Newtown	3	1111	28.09%	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1195	47.21%	24.70%
14	2016-03-19	55.3	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1176	14.31%	The New Saints	1	1425	66.92%	18.77%
15	2015-08-28	55.2	@ The New Saints	1	1375	61.35%	Llandudno	1	1203	17.61%	21.03%
16	2016-02-26	55.2	@ Llandudno	3	1228	30.98%	Bala Town	2	1288	43.93%	25.10%
17	2016-03-19	55.2	Llandudno	4	1229	39.24%	@ Airbus UK	3	1203	35.38%	25.38%
18	2016-03-25	55.0	Port Talbot Town	3	1090	30.31%	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1129	44.67%	25.02%
19	2015-09-19	54.7	@ Airbus UK	1	1238	22.49%	The New Saints	1	1376	54.23%	23.27%
20	2016-01-29	54.3	@ Bala Town	1	1276	58.35%	Newtown	1	1130	19.57%	22.07%
21	2015-12-19	54.1	@ Llandudno	1	1234	57.64%	Port Talbot Town	1	1094	20.06%	22.30%
22	2016-03-19	53.7	Bangor City	4	1139	43.48%	@ Rhyl	3	1082	31.38%	25.14%
23	2015-12-15	53.6	@ Bangor City	1	1146	25.43%	Bala Town	1	1254	50.43%	24.14%
24	2016-02-20	53.6	@ Newtown	1	1120	25.36%	Llandudno	1	1229	50.51%	24.13%
25	2015-09-22	53.5	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1185	29.03%	Bala Town	1	1260	46.12%	24.85%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-08-22	25.4	The New Saints	4	1370	73.12%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1057	11.05%	15.83%
2	2015-10-31	26.1	@ The New Saints	2	1405	79.09%	Haverfordwest County	0	1048	8.22%	12.68%
3	2015-10-09	27.9	@ The New Saints	2	1388	73.53%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1097	10.85%	15.62%
4	2016-02-13	28.2	The New Saints	6	1400	69.00%	@ Newtown	0	1131	13.18%	17.83%
5	2015-09-22	28.5	@ The New Saints	2	1375	71.51%	Carmarthen Town	0	1106	11.87%	16.63%
6	2016-02-27	29.0	@ The New Saints	5	1411	65.52%	Airbus UK	0	1201	15.11%	19.38%
7	2015-10-02	29.1	@ The New Saints	2	1378	69.60%	Bangor City	0	1128	12.85%	17.54%
8	2015-10-06	29.4	The New Saints	6	1381	70.93%	@ Carmarthen Town	1	1092	12.16%	16.91%
9	2015-11-28	29.4	@ The New Saints	4	1410	62.85%	Airbus UK	0	1224	16.69%	20.47%
10	2015-10-16	29.5	The New Saints	2	1391	68.49%	@ Bangor City	0	1127	13.45%	18.06%
11	2015-10-23	29.6	The New Saints	4	1395	61.15%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1199	17.74%	21.11%
12	2015-10-24	30.9	Bala Town	2	1260	62.46%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1053	16.92%	20.62%
13	2015-09-18	31.3	@ Bala Town	3	1251	54.41%	Bangor City	0	1137	22.36%	23.23%
14	2016-01-01	32.0	@ The New Saints	4	1415	71.71%	Newtown	1	1143	11.76%	16.53%
15	2016-03-11	32.0	@ The New Saints	2	1421	63.06%	Llandudno	0	1234	16.56%	20.38%
16	2015-11-22	32.1	The New Saints	1	1408	71.08%	@ Port Talbot Town	0	1117	12.09%	16.84%
17	2015-09-11	32.2	@ Bala Town	2	1245	58.20%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1100	19.68%	22.12%
18	2015-08-29	32.8	@ Newtown	3	1121	48.82%	Haverfordwest County	0	1051	26.74%	24.44%
19	2015-09-22	32.8	Airbus UK	3	1239	49.32%	@ Newtown	0	1140	26.33%	24.35%
20	2016-01-01	33.2	Llandudno	3	1226	48.16%	@ Bangor City	0	1136	27.29%	24.55%
21	2016-03-12	33.8	Airbus UK	3	1190	45.84%	@ Newtown	0	1117	29.28%	24.88%
22	2015-11-21	34.0	@ Llandudno	1	1223	63.24%	Haverfordwest County	0	1033	16.45%	20.31%
23	2015-11-14	34.1	Llandudno	3	1210	44.90%	@ Newtown	0	1144	30.11%	25.00%
24	2016-03-28	34.3	@ Port Talbot Town	4	1096	42.48%	Rhyl	0	1072	32.30%	25.22%
25	2015-08-22	34.4	@ Airbus UK	5	1247	56.40%	Carmarthen Town	1	1117	20.92%	22.67%