2016-17 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

85 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bangor City

6.60 points above expected

52 points · 45.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Airbus UK

5.69 points below expected

21 points · 26.69 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	21	1	0	64	77	14	+63	50.24	+13.76
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	12	7	3	43	33	16	+17	37.35	+5.65
3	Bala Town	22	11	7	4	40	41	27	+14	37.83	+2.17
4	Bangor City	22	11	3	8	36	35	34	+1	33.44	+2.56
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	9	4	9	31	28	18	+10	30.87	+0.13
6	Carmarthen Town	22	7	7	8	28	30	30	0	26.93	+1.07
7	Llandudno	22	6	8	8	26	18	29	-11	29.39	-3.39
8	Aberystwyth Town	22	7	2	13	23	25	41	-16	27.86	-4.86
9	Rhyl	22	6	3	13	21	27	56	-29	22.09	-1.09
10	Cefn Druids	22	4	8	10	20	24	40	-16	16.38	+3.62
11	Newtown	22	4	7	11	19	26	32	-6	26.23	-7.23
12	Airbus UK	22	4	3	15	15	28	55	-27	25.69	-10.69

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	28	1	3	85	101	26	+75	87.15	-2.15
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	16	10	6	58	45	24	+21	57.49	+0.51
3	Bala Town	32	16	9	7	57	61	46	+15	54.42	+2.58
4	Bangor City	32	16	4	12	52	53	53	0	45.40	+6.60
5	Carmarthen Town	32	10	9	13	39	40	46	-6	40.48	-1.48
6	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	10	6	16	36	41	41	0	40.27	-4.27

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Newtown	32	12	9	11	45	59	41	+18	41.73	+3.27
2	Cefn Druids	32	9	12	11	39	40	48	-8	33.72	+5.28
3	Llandudno	32	7	14	11	35	31	45	-14	38.59	-3.59
4	Aberystwyth Town	32	10	4	18	34	41	63	-22	34.77	-0.77
5	Rhyl	32	8	6	18	30	38	76	-38	31.25	-1.25
6	Airbus UK	32	5	6	21	21	37	78	-41	26.69	-5.69

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bangor City	52	45.40	+6.60
2	Cefn Druids	39	33.72	+5.28
3	Newtown	45	41.73	+3.27
4	Bala Town	57	54.42	+2.58
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	58	57.49	+0.51

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Airbus UK	21	26.69	-5.69
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	36	40.27	-4.27
3	Llandudno	35	38.59	-3.59
4	The New Saints	85	87.15	-2.15
5	Carmarthen Town	39	40.48	-1.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	21	Aug 14 – Dec 30	1 in 1,922
2	Bala Town	8	Oct 29 – Dec 26	1 in 122
3	Carmarthen Town	2	Feb 4 – Feb 11	1 in 63
4	Newtown	5	Feb 4 – Mar 10	1 in 53
5	Rhyl	3	Aug 31 – Sep 10	1 in 36

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Airbus UK	9	Oct 29 – Dec 30	1 in 348
2	Rhyl	6	Sep 25 – Nov 5	1 in 95
3	Aberystwyth Town	4	Aug 31 – Sep 18	1 in 57
4	Newtown	5	Sep 20 – Oct 23	1 in 46
5	Bangor City	3	Jan 1 – Feb 4	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Newtown	12	Dec 31 – Apr 22	1 in 143
2	Carmarthen Town	6	Dec 17 – Feb 11	1 in 62
3	Cefn Druids	7	Mar 3 – Apr 22	1 in 41
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	12	Aug 13 – Oct 23	1 in 39
5	Rhyl	5	Aug 31 – Sep 20	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Llandudno	7	Mar 3 – Apr 22	1 in 146
2	Newtown	11	Aug 28 – Oct 29	1 in 90
3	Airbus UK	12	Oct 1 – Dec 30	1 in 46
4	Aberystwyth Town	6	Feb 11 – Mar 25	1 in 17
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	8	Feb 4 – Apr 9	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1518	85	-60	9	11.1	-2.1
Connah's Quay Nomads	1347	58	+33	8	6.3	+1.7
Bala Town	1314	57	-20	7	7.8	-0.8
Bangor City	1239	52	+31	7	5.6	+1.4
Newtown	1275	45	+72	11	9.8	+1.2
Cefn Druids	1095	39	+53	11	7.0	+4.0
Carmarthen Town	1168	39	-34	4	4.5	-0.5
Cardiff Metropolitan	1224	36	+19	4	5.0	-1.0
Llandudno	1105	35	-49	3	8.3	-5.3
Aberystwyth Town	1071	34	+26	7	6.1	+0.9
Rhyl	977	30	-62	4	5.6	-1.6
Airbus UK	943	21	-39	4	4.8	-0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AU	BT	BC	CM	CT	CD	CQN	LLA	NEW	RHY	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	3-0-1 6.07	0-0-2 1.88	0-0-2 2.68	0-0-2 2.30	1-0-1 2.41	1-1-2 6.61	0-0-2 2.01	2-1-1 4.93	1-1-2 4.72	2-1-1 6.59	0-0-2 1.23
Airbus UK	1-0-3 4.94	—	0-1-1 1.48	1-0-1 1.55	1-0-1 2.48	0-1-1 3.09	1-2-1 5.55	0-0-2 1.11	0-2-2 4.45	1-0-3 4.33	0-0-4 5.97	0-0-2 0.87
Bala Town	2-0-0 3.64	1-1-0 4.07	—	2-1-1 7.09	4-0-0 6.84	2-2-0 7.27	1-1-0 4.15	0-3-1 5.88	2-0-0 3.66	1-1-0 3.57	1-0-1 4.73	0-0-4 2.71
Bangor City	2-0-0 2.82	1-0-1 3.98	1-1-2 3.95	—	3-0-1 5.55	1-1-2 6.28	2-0-0 4.04	1-2-1 4.19	1-0-1 3.26	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 3.56	1-0-3 2.00
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 3.03	0-0-4 4.18	1-0-3 5.46	—	1-2-1 6.33	1-1-0 3.56	0-2-2 4.06	1-1-0 2.86	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 3.41	0-0-4 1.99
Carmarthen Town	1-0-1 3.11	1-1-0 2.42	0-2-2 3.77	2-1-1 4.75	1-2-1 4.69	—	0-2-0 3.89	1-1-2 3.98	0-0-2 2.52	1-0-1 2.71	2-0-0 3.28	1-0-3 1.54
Cefn Druids	2-1-1 4.42	1-2-1 5.48	0-1-1 1.39	0-0-2 1.50	0-1-1 1.95	0-2-0 1.64	—	0-1-1 1.31	1-2-1 3.75	1-2-1 3.76	4-0-0 4.50	0-0-2 0.41
Connah's Quay Nomads	2-0-0 3.51	2-0-0 4.47	1-3-0 5.13	1-2-1 6.84	2-2-0 6.96	2-1-1 7.07	1-1-0 4.25	—	1-1-0 3.43	1-0-1 3.65	2-0-0 3.95	1-0-3 2.40
Llandudno	1-1-2 6.09	2-2-0 6.58	0-0-2 1.86	1-0-1 2.25	0-1-1 2.66	2-0-0 2.98	1-2-1 7.30	0-1-1 2.08	—	0-3-1 6.07	0-4-0 7.23	0-0-2 1.42
Newtown	2-1-1 6.30	3-0-1 6.72	0-1-1 1.94	0-0-2 2.31	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 2.79	1-2-1 7.28	1-0-1 1.87	1-3-0 4.95	—	3-1-0 6.92	0-1-1 0.65
Rhyl	1-1-2 4.43	4-0-0 5.04	1-0-1 0.88	1-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 2.11	0-0-2 2.22	0-0-4 6.52	0-0-2 1.58	0-4-0 3.81	0-1-3 4.11	—	0-0-2 0.74
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.34	2-0-0 4.77	4-0-0 8.39	3-0-1 9.19	4-0-0 9.20	3-0-1 9.74	2-0-0 5.34	3-0-1 8.73	2-0-0 4.15	1-1-0 5.02	2-0-0 4.90	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.80	+8.0
Allowed	0.58	-7.7
Differential	0.91	+5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.90%	6.77%	5.73%	2.60%	3.39%	2.08%	30.47%
1	6.77%	6.77%	6.25%	3.65%	0.78%	1.30%	25.52%
2	5.73%	6.25%	4.69%	3.39%	1.56%	—	21.61%
3	2.60%	3.65%	3.39%	1.56%	0.52%	—	11.72%
4	3.39%	0.78%	1.56%	0.52%	0.52%	0.26%	7.03%
5+	2.08%	1.30%	—	—	0.26%	—	3.65%
Total	30.47%	25.52%	21.61%	11.72%	7.03%	3.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.53	+0.00
SD	1.49	1.49	2.24
CV	0.98	0.98	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	—	34.38%
1	12.50%	—	6.25%	9.38%	—	6.25%	34.38%
2	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	9.38%	15.62%	15.62%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.97	-0.69
SD	1.37	1.80	2.61
CV	1.07	0.92	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	37.50%
1	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	34.38%
2	—	—	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	12.50%
3	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	9.38%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.38%	9.38%	40.62%	21.88%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.16	2.44	-1.28
SD	1.27	1.46	1.94
CV	1.10	0.60	—
Max	4	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	21.88%
1	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	12.50%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	31.25%	28.12%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.44	+0.47
SD	1.57	1.50	1.87
CV	0.83	1.04	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	9.38%	—	21.88%
1	—	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	18.75%
2	3.12%	21.88%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	34.38%
3	6.25%	—	15.62%	—	—	—	21.88%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	34.38%	3.12%	12.50%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.66	+0.00
SD	1.15	1.15	1.93
CV	0.70	0.70	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	34.38%
1	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	9.38%	—	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	40.62%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.28	+0.00
SD	1.37	1.35	2.13
CV	1.07	1.05	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	34.38%
1	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
2	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	31.25%	31.25%	15.62%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.44	-0.19
SD	1.22	1.44	1.94
CV	0.97	1.00	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	21.88%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
1	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
2	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	18.75%	21.88%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.50	-0.25
SD	1.34	1.44	1.76
CV	1.08	0.96	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	28.12%
1	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	28.12%
2	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	46.88%	37.50%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	0.75	+0.66
SD	1.27	0.88	1.64
CV	0.90	1.17	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	21.88%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	6.25%	43.75%
1	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
2	6.25%	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	21.88%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	1.41	-0.44
SD	1.09	1.41	1.66
CV	1.13	1.00	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	28.12%
1	—	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
2	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	25.00%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	21.88%	43.75%	21.88%	9.38%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.84	1.28	+0.56
SD	1.78	1.02	2.02
CV	0.97	0.80	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	34.38%
1	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	21.88%	15.62%	15.62%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	2.38	-1.19
SD	1.09	2.12	2.67
CV	0.92	0.89	—
Max	3	10	+3
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
1	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
2	12.50%	15.62%	—	—	—	—	28.12%
3	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
5+	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
Total	50.00%	31.25%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.16	0.81	+2.34
SD	1.99	1.06	2.34
CV	0.63	1.31	—
Max	10	4	+10
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1518	85	50.24	+34.76	100.0%	37	41	46	51	54	58	62
Connah's Quay Nomads	1347	58	37.35	+20.65	83.0%	20	27	32	37	42	49	57
Bala Town	1314	57	37.83	+19.17	64.0%	22	28	33	38	42	46	47
Newtown	1275	45	26.23	+18.77	8.0%	15	18	22	26	29	36	45
Bangor City	1239	52	33.44	+18.56	75.0%	21	23	30	33	36	43	49
Cardiff Metropolitan	1224	36	30.87	+5.13	56.0%	17	20	26	31	35	40	46
Carmarthen Town	1168	39	26.93	+12.07	57.0%	9	17	22	27	31	36	41
Llandudno	1105	35	29.39	+5.61	32.0%	20	21	26	29	33	38	46
Cefn Druids	1095	39	16.38	+22.62	78.0%	6	7	12	16	20	27	29
Aberystwyth Town	1071	34	27.86	+6.14	18.0%	12	15	24	27	32	37	47
Rhyl	977	30	22.09	+7.91	48.0%	8	13	18	22	26	31	36
Airbus UK	943	21	25.69	-4.69	4.0%	12	16	23	26	30	34	40

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+8.85%

Slight Edge

42.71%23.44%33.85%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 30.84 Elo pts.

163 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.27 goals

Neutral

-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.3

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

86%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.84/gm

Runaway

00.281.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.59 * Some Luck: 4.59 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.18 * Wild Swing: 9.18 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 * Close: 1.34 to 2.01 * Off: 2.01 to 2.68 * Way Off: 2.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.12 points

Some Luck

05.7414

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.67

01.684

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

100.00%

The New Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

4.00%

Airbus UK

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 156.23

2.24

Strong Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

74%

Wide Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

96%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Some Drama

0%50%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Occasional

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.38

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.26

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.23

Weak Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.47

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.081

Well Within Noise

00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	86.00%	11.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	7.00%	34.00%	19.00%	13.00%	8.00%	8.00%	6.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	2.00%	—
Bala Town	5.00%	36.00%	22.00%	14.00%	6.00%	11.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—
Bangor City	1.00%	8.00%	16.00%	25.00%	17.00%	12.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Carmarthen Town	—	2.00%	2.00%	9.00%	11.00%	11.00%	15.00%	12.00%	10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	5.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	4.00%	16.00%	15.00%	16.00%	13.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Newtown	—	1.00%	4.00%	3.00%	7.00%	14.00%	10.00%	13.00%	14.00%	17.00%	12.00%	5.00%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	27.00%	56.00%
Llandudno	—	1.00%	8.00%	12.00%	15.00%	8.00%	17.00%	14.00%	10.00%	12.00%	1.00%	2.00%
Aberystwyth Town	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	8.00%	11.00%	9.00%	14.00%	19.00%	8.00%	13.00%	4.00%	7.00%
Rhyl	—	—	2.00%	—	3.00%	4.00%	9.00%	6.00%	15.00%	13.00%	28.00%	20.00%
Airbus UK	—	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%	6.00%	9.00%	8.00%	18.00%	21.00%	18.00%	11.00%	3.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	100.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	65.55%	29.99%	3.89%	0.56%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	31.85%	55.22%	10.79%	1.98%	0.16%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	—	2.21%	10.42%	51.22%	26.38%	9.77%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Carmarthen Town	—	0.32%	2.52%	17.60%	36.46%	43.10%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	0.07%	1.85%	16.50%	34.62%	46.96%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.31%	24.53%	12.54%	5.95%	2.40%	0.27%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.92%	15.06%	21.37%	26.94%	20.92%	8.79%
Llandudno	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.20%	31.58%	21.57%	12.31%	6.15%	2.19%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.11%	18.64%	24.50%	22.96%	16.89%	7.90%
Rhyl	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.13%	8.29%	14.61%	21.08%	32.03%	20.86%
Airbus UK	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.33%	1.90%	5.41%	10.76%	21.61%	59.99%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Bangor City	99.00%	1.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	99.00%	1.00%
Llandudno	98.00%	2.00%
Carmarthen Town	93.00%	7.00%
Aberystwyth Town	88.00%	12.00%
Newtown	83.00%	17.00%
Airbus UK	70.00%	30.00%
Rhyl	50.00%	50.00%
Cefn Druids	20.00%	80.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Carmarthen Town	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Newtown	97.33%	2.67%
Llandudno	91.66%	8.34%
Aberystwyth Town	75.21%	24.79%
Cefn Druids	70.29%	29.71%
Rhyl	47.11%	52.89%
Airbus UK	18.40%	81.60%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2016-08-12	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	39.9	1168	1004	61.10%	22.79%	16.11%	+1.19	+5.9	3
2016-08-12	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	39.9	1004	1168	16.11%	22.79%	61.10%	-1.19	-5.9	0
2016-08-13	Bala Town	D 0-0	48.8	1160	1269	27.33%	24.51%	48.16%	-0.48	+1.6	1
2016-08-13	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.8	1269	1160	48.16%	24.51%	27.33%	+0.48	-1.6	1
2016-08-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.6	1165	1201	36.81%	24.85%	38.34%	-0.03	+0.1	1
2016-08-13	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.6	1201	1165	38.34%	24.85%	36.81%	+0.03	-0.1	1
2016-08-14	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	40.9	1353	1201	59.90%	23.03%	17.07%	+1.12	+6.2	3
2016-08-14	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	40.9	1201	1353	17.07%	23.03%	59.90%	-1.12	-6.2	0
2016-08-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	39.9	1206	1178	45.77%	24.65%	29.58%	+0.36	+10.5	3
2016-08-14	@ Airbus UK	L 0-1	39.9	1178	1206	29.58%	24.65%	45.77%	-0.36	-10.5	0
2016-08-14	Llandudno	D 0-0	48.6	1147	1223	31.37%	24.74%	43.89%	-0.28	+1.0	1
2016-08-14	@ Rhyl	D 0-0	48.6	1223	1147	43.89%	24.74%	31.37%	+0.28	-0.9	1
2016-08-20	Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	47.6	1162	1165	41.50%	24.81%	33.68%	+0.17	+17.0	4
2016-08-20	@ Newtown	L 2-4	47.6	1165	1162	33.68%	24.81%	41.50%	-0.17	-17.0	1
2016-08-20	Cefn Druids	L 0-3	43.9	1148	998	59.74%	23.06%	17.20%	+1.11	-51.2	1
2016-08-20	@ Rhyl	W 3-0	43.9	998	1148	17.20%	23.06%	59.74%	-1.11	+51.2	3
2016-08-20	The New Saints	L 0-5	33.3	1222	1359	24.18%	24.22%	51.60%	-0.65	-39.3	1
2016-08-20	@ Llandudno	W 5-0	33.3	1359	1222	51.60%	24.22%	24.18%	+0.65	+39.3	6
2016-08-21	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	44.6	1217	1195	44.86%	24.70%	30.44%	+0.32	-14.5	3
2016-08-21	@ Airbus UK	W 1-0	44.6	1195	1217	30.44%	24.70%	44.86%	-0.32	+14.5	3
2016-08-21	Bala Town	L 0-1	39.7	1167	1267	28.37%	24.58%	47.05%	-0.42	-10.2	0
2016-08-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	39.7	1267	1167	47.05%	24.58%	28.37%	+0.42	+10.2	4
2016-08-21	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	40.1	1174	1201	38.19%	24.86%	36.96%	+0.03	-24.1	3
2016-08-21	@ Bangor City	W 2-0	40.1	1201	1174	36.96%	24.86%	38.19%	-0.03	+24.2	4
2016-08-27	Airbus UK	W 2-1	48.1	1148	1202	34.27%	24.82%	40.91%	-0.14	+12.7	4
2016-08-27	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	48.1	1202	1148	40.91%	24.82%	34.27%	+0.14	-12.7	3
2016-08-27	Bala Town	W 2-0	43.7	1150	1277	25.20%	24.33%	50.48%	-0.59	+30.3	6
2016-08-27	@ Bangor City	L 0-2	43.7	1277	1150	50.48%	24.33%	25.20%	+0.59	-30.3	4
2016-08-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	48.6	1049	1157	27.46%	24.52%	48.02%	-0.47	+1.6	4
2016-08-27	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.6	1157	1049	48.02%	24.52%	27.46%	+0.47	-1.6	1
2016-08-28	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	42.6	1183	1210	38.20%	24.86%	36.95%	+0.03	-12.8	1
2016-08-28	@ Llandudno	W 1-0	42.6	1210	1183	36.95%	24.86%	38.20%	-0.03	+12.8	6
2016-08-28	Newtown	W 1-0	39.3	1225	1179	48.06%	24.52%	27.42%	+0.47	+9.9	7
2016-08-28	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	39.3	1179	1225	27.42%	24.52%	48.06%	-0.47	-9.9	4
2016-08-28	Rhyl	W 10-0	28.4	1398	1097	72.04%	19.44%	8.52%	+2.03	+27.8	9
2016-08-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-10	28.4	1097	1398	8.52%	19.44%	72.04%	-2.03	-27.8	1
2016-08-30	Airbus UK	W 2-0	39.4	1170	1189	39.26%	24.85%	35.89%	+0.07	+23.0	4
2016-08-30	@ Llandudno	L 0-2	39.4	1189	1170	35.89%	24.85%	39.26%	-0.07	-23.0	3
2016-08-30	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.9	1247	1160	52.95%	24.08%	22.97%	+0.72	-2.4	5
2016-08-30	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	48.9	1160	1247	22.97%	24.08%	52.95%	-0.72	+2.4	5
2016-08-31	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	49.4	1069	1222	22.46%	24.01%	53.52%	-0.75	+27.6	4
2016-08-31	@ Rhyl	L 1-3	49.4	1222	1069	53.52%	24.01%	22.46%	+0.75	-27.6	6
2016-08-31	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.9	1051	1235	19.56%	23.56%	56.88%	-0.93	+3.0	5
2016-08-31	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.9	1235	1051	56.88%	23.56%	19.56%	+0.93	-3.0	8
2016-08-31	Newtown	W 2-1	45.3	1180	1169	43.51%	24.75%	31.74%	+0.26	+10.5	9
2016-08-31	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	45.3	1169	1180	31.74%	24.75%	43.51%	-0.26	-10.5	4
2016-08-31	The New Saints	L 1-2	39.5	1155	1426	13.08%	21.81%	65.11%	-1.47	-4.8	1
2016-08-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	39.5	1426	1155	65.11%	21.81%	13.08%	+1.47	+4.8	12
2016-09-03	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	35.9	1191	1195	41.38%	24.81%	33.81%	+0.16	+41.8	12
2016-09-03	@ Bangor City	L 0-4	35.9	1195	1191	33.81%	24.81%	41.38%	-0.16	-41.8	6
2016-09-03	Bala Town	D 1-1	52.8	1232	1245	40.13%	24.84%	35.03%	+0.11	-0.3	9
2016-09-03	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.8	1245	1232	35.03%	24.84%	40.13%	-0.11	+0.3	6
2016-09-03	Llandudno	L 0-1	42.4	1163	1193	37.62%	24.86%	37.53%	+0.00	-12.7	5
2016-09-03	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	42.4	1193	1163	37.53%	24.86%	37.62%	+0.00	+12.7	7
2016-09-04	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	43.2	1097	1151	34.36%	24.83%	40.81%	-0.14	+13.5	7
2016-09-04	@ Rhyl	L 0-1	43.2	1151	1097	40.81%	24.83%	34.36%	+0.14	-13.5	1
2016-09-04	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	52.8	1158	1054	54.96%	23.83%	21.21%	+0.83	-2.4	5
2016-09-04	@ Newtown	D 1-1	52.8	1054	1158	21.21%	23.83%	54.96%	-0.83	+2.4	6
2016-09-04	The New Saints	L 1-4	35.3	1166	1431	13.46%	21.95%	64.59%	-1.43	-12.1	3
2016-09-04	@ Airbus UK	W 4-1	35.3	1431	1166	64.59%	21.95%	13.46%	+1.43	+12.1	15
2016-09-10	Airbus UK	W 3-1	45.4	1110	1154	35.73%	24.85%	39.42%	-0.08	+21.4	10
2016-09-10	@ Rhyl	L 1-3	45.4	1154	1110	39.42%	24.85%	35.73%	+0.08	-21.4	3
2016-09-10	Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	39.3	1153	1150	42.32%	24.79%	32.89%	+0.21	-38.0	6
2016-09-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	39.3	1150	1153	32.89%	24.79%	42.32%	-0.21	+38.0	8
2016-09-10	Newtown	D 0-0	48.7	1206	1156	48.57%	24.48%	26.95%	+0.50	-1.7	8
2016-09-10	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	48.7	1156	1206	26.95%	24.48%	48.57%	-0.50	+1.7	6
2016-09-11	Bangor City	W 4-0	30.2	1443	1233	65.22%	21.78%	13.00%	+1.48	+18.1	18
2016-09-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	30.2	1233	1443	13.00%	21.78%	65.22%	-1.48	-18.1	12
2016-09-11	Cefn Druids	W 2-0	32.1	1245	1056	63.32%	22.28%	14.40%	+1.34	+10.5	9
2016-09-11	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	32.1	1056	1245	14.40%	22.28%	63.32%	-1.34	-10.5	6
2016-09-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	44.5	1137	1231	29.07%	24.63%	46.31%	-0.39	-9.8	1
2016-09-11	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	44.5	1231	1137	46.31%	24.63%	29.07%	+0.39	+9.8	12
2016-09-17	Bala Town	W 5-1	34.7	1461	1255	64.82%	21.89%	13.29%	+1.45	+15.4	21
2016-09-17	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	34.7	1255	1461	13.29%	21.89%	64.82%	-1.45	-15.4	9
2016-09-17	Bangor City	D 1-1	52.6	1188	1214	38.22%	24.86%	36.92%	+0.03	-0.1	9
2016-09-17	@ Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.6	1214	1188	36.92%	24.86%	38.22%	-0.03	+0.1	13
2016-09-17	Rhyl	D 3-3	61.5	1158	1132	45.41%	24.67%	29.92%	+0.35	-0.7	7
2016-09-17	@ Newtown	D 3-3	61.5	1132	1158	29.92%	24.67%	45.41%	-0.35	+0.7	11
2016-09-18	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	31.1	1241	1115	57.32%	23.49%	19.19%	+0.96	+26.1	15
2016-09-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	31.1	1115	1241	19.19%	23.49%	57.32%	-0.96	-26.1	6
2016-09-18	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	46.4	1204	1127	51.85%	24.20%	23.96%	+0.66	-16.5	8
2016-09-18	@ Llandudno	W 1-0	46.4	1127	1204	23.96%	24.20%	51.85%	-0.66	+16.5	4
2016-09-18	Cefn Druids	W 3-2	47.1	1133	1046	52.99%	24.07%	22.93%	+0.72	+7.6	6
2016-09-18	@ Airbus UK	L 2-3	47.1	1046	1133	22.93%	24.07%	52.99%	-0.72	-7.6	6
2016-09-20	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-5	41.6	1188	1089	54.40%	23.91%	21.69%	+0.80	-75.7	9
2016-09-20	@ Carmarthen Town	W 5-0	41.6	1089	1188	21.69%	23.91%	54.40%	-0.80	+75.7	9
2016-09-20	Airbus UK	D 2-2	57.5	1038	1140	28.11%	24.57%	47.32%	-0.44	+1.0	7
2016-09-20	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	57.5	1140	1038	47.32%	24.57%	28.11%	+0.44	-1.0	7
2016-09-20	Bangor City	W 1-0	44.5	1132	1215	30.60%	24.71%	44.70%	-0.31	+14.5	14
2016-09-20	@ Rhyl	L 0-1	44.5	1215	1132	44.70%	24.71%	30.60%	+0.31	-14.5	13
2016-09-20	Llandudno	D 1-1	52.9	1267	1188	52.12%	24.17%	23.71%	+0.67	-2.0	16
2016-09-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.9	1188	1267	23.71%	24.17%	52.12%	-0.67	+2.0	9
2016-09-20	Newtown	W 2-1	46.3	1144	1157	40.10%	24.84%	35.06%	+0.11	+11.3	7
2016-09-20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	46.3	1157	1144	35.06%	24.84%	40.10%	-0.11	-11.3	7
2016-09-20	The New Saints	L 0-2	34.5	1240	1476	15.34%	22.57%	62.09%	-1.26	-11.2	9
2016-09-20	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	34.5	1476	1240	62.09%	22.57%	15.34%	+1.26	+11.2	24
2016-09-23	Bangor City	D 1-1	52.7	1229	1200	45.81%	24.65%	29.53%	+0.36	-1.1	10
2016-09-23	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	52.7	1200	1229	29.53%	24.65%	45.81%	-0.36	+1.1	14
2016-09-24	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	41.4	1155	1165	40.60%	24.83%	34.57%	+0.13	+11.9	10
2016-09-24	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	41.4	1165	1155	34.57%	24.83%	40.60%	-0.13	-11.9	9
2016-09-24	Airbus UK	L 2-4	50.3	1146	1139	42.77%	24.78%	32.45%	+0.23	-20.4	7
2016-09-24	@ Newtown	W 4-2	50.3	1139	1146	32.45%	24.78%	42.77%	-0.23	+20.4	10
2016-09-25	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	36.2	1488	1112	76.65%	17.33%	6.02%	+2.49	+2.1	27
2016-09-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	36.2	1112	1488	6.02%	17.33%	76.65%	-2.49	-2.1	9
2016-09-25	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	49.0	1190	1039	59.79%	23.05%	17.16%	+1.11	-3.5	10
2016-09-25	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	49.0	1039	1190	17.16%	23.05%	59.79%	-1.11	+3.5	8
2016-09-25	Rhyl	W 2-0	34.3	1265	1147	56.48%	23.62%	19.90%	+0.91	+14.2	19
2016-09-25	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	34.3	1147	1265	19.90%	23.62%	56.48%	-0.91	-14.2	14
2016-09-30	Rhyl	W 4-3	57.0	1043	1133	29.59%	24.66%	45.75%	-0.36	+12.9	11
2016-09-30	@ Cefn Druids	L 3-4	57.0	1133	1043	45.75%	24.66%	29.59%	+0.36	-12.9	14
2016-10-01	Llandudno	L 2-3	52.0	1160	1186	38.19%	24.86%	36.95%	+0.03	-11.5	10
2016-10-01	@ Airbus UK	W 3-2	52.0	1186	1160	36.95%	24.86%	38.19%	-0.03	+11.5	13
2016-10-01	The New Saints	L 1-5	32.2	1153	1490	9.61%	20.15%	70.24%	-1.87	-11.0	9
2016-10-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 5-1	32.2	1490	1153	70.24%	20.15%	9.61%	+1.87	+11.0	30
2016-10-02	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	44.4	1201	1167	46.52%	24.61%	28.87%	+0.40	+9.7	17
2016-10-02	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	44.4	1167	1201	28.87%	24.61%	46.52%	-0.40	-9.7	10
2016-10-02	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	35.2	1279	1110	61.57%	22.68%	15.74%	+1.22	+6.1	22
2016-10-02	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	35.2	1110	1279	15.74%	22.68%	61.57%	-1.22	-6.1	9
2016-10-02	Newtown	W 1-0	37.2	1228	1125	54.78%	23.86%	21.36%	+0.82	+8.0	13
2016-10-02	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	37.2	1125	1228	21.36%	23.86%	54.78%	-0.82	-8.0	7
2016-10-14	Rhyl	W 4-0	34.7	1142	1120	44.89%	24.70%	30.41%	+0.32	+38.5	12
2016-10-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	34.7	1120	1142	30.41%	24.70%	44.89%	-0.32	-38.5	14
2016-10-15	Llandudno	W 5-0	28.2	1501	1198	72.15%	19.40%	8.45%	+2.04	+14.2	33
2016-10-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	28.2	1198	1501	8.45%	19.40%	72.15%	-2.04	-14.2	13
2016-10-15	Newtown	W 3-1	44.0	1104	1117	40.12%	24.84%	35.04%	+0.11	+19.6	12
2016-10-15	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	44.0	1117	1104	35.04%	24.84%	40.12%	-0.11	-19.6	7
2016-10-16	Airbus UK	D 3-3	61.8	1236	1148	53.05%	24.07%	22.88%	+0.72	-1.3	14
2016-10-16	@ Bala Town	D 3-3	61.8	1148	1236	22.88%	24.07%	53.05%	-0.72	+1.3	11
2016-10-16	Bangor City	D 2-2	58.0	1285	1211	51.56%	24.23%	24.21%	+0.65	-1.4	23
2016-10-16	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 2-2	58.0	1211	1285	24.21%	24.23%	51.56%	-0.65	+1.4	18
2016-10-16	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	31.6	1157	1056	54.66%	23.87%	21.46%	+0.81	+35.5	13
2016-10-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-5	31.6	1056	1157	21.46%	23.87%	54.66%	-0.81	-35.5	11
2016-10-21	Bala Town	D 4-4	64.0	1020	1234	17.00%	23.01%	59.98%	-1.12	+1.7	12
2016-10-21	@ Cefn Druids	D 4-4	64.0	1234	1020	59.98%	23.01%	17.00%	+1.12	-1.7	15
2016-10-22	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	52.5	1150	1124	45.45%	24.67%	29.88%	+0.35	-1.1	12
2016-10-22	@ Airbus UK	D 1-1	52.5	1124	1150	29.88%	24.67%	45.45%	-0.35	+1.1	13
2016-10-22	Rhyl	W 3-2	45.7	1212	1081	57.81%	23.41%	18.78%	+0.99	+6.4	21
2016-10-22	@ Bangor City	L 2-3	45.7	1081	1212	18.78%	23.41%	57.81%	-0.99	-6.4	14
2016-10-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.1	1284	1193	53.51%	24.02%	22.48%	+0.75	-2.5	24
2016-10-23	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	49.1	1193	1284	22.48%	24.02%	53.51%	-0.75	+2.5	14
2016-10-23	Llandudno	D 0-0	48.6	1180	1184	41.45%	24.81%	33.73%	+0.17	-0.6	13
2016-10-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.6	1184	1180	33.73%	24.81%	41.45%	-0.17	+0.6	14
2016-10-23	The New Saints	L 0-1	31.9	1097	1515	6.60%	17.90%	75.51%	-2.37	-2.5	7
2016-10-23	@ Newtown	W 1-0	31.9	1515	1097	75.51%	17.90%	6.60%	+2.37	+2.5	36
2016-10-28	Bangor City	L 2-3	45.5	1022	1219	18.42%	23.33%	58.24%	-1.02	-6.3	12
2016-10-28	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-2	45.5	1219	1022	58.24%	23.33%	18.42%	+1.02	+6.3	24
2016-10-29	Airbus UK	W 3-1	42.3	1180	1149	46.09%	24.64%	29.27%	+0.38	+17.0	16
2016-10-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	42.3	1149	1180	29.27%	24.64%	46.09%	-0.38	-17.0	12
2016-10-29	Bala Town	L 2-3	48.7	1125	1233	27.41%	24.52%	48.07%	-0.47	-8.8	13
2016-10-29	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	48.7	1233	1125	48.07%	24.52%	27.41%	+0.47	+8.8	18
2016-10-29	Llandudno	D 0-0	48.6	1095	1184	29.70%	24.66%	45.64%	-0.36	+1.2	8
2016-10-29	@ Newtown	D 0-0	48.6	1184	1095	45.64%	24.66%	29.70%	+0.36	-1.2	15
2016-10-30	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-0	32.5	1517	1282	67.29%	21.17%	11.55%	+1.63	+12.3	39
2016-10-30	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	32.5	1282	1517	11.55%	21.17%	67.29%	-1.63	-12.3	24
2016-10-30	Rhyl	W 4-0	31.2	1195	1075	56.69%	23.59%	19.72%	+0.92	+26.7	17
2016-10-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	31.2	1075	1195	19.72%	23.59%	56.69%	-0.92	-26.7	14
2016-11-04	Llandudno	L 1-3	39.5	1016	1183	21.07%	23.81%	55.12%	-0.83	-12.9	12
2016-11-04	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	39.5	1183	1016	55.12%	23.81%	21.07%	+0.83	+12.9	18
2016-11-05	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	40.5	1242	1222	44.59%	24.71%	30.70%	+0.31	+10.8	21
2016-11-05	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	40.5	1222	1242	30.70%	24.71%	44.59%	-0.31	-10.8	17
2016-11-05	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	40.7	1048	1116	32.47%	24.78%	42.75%	-0.23	-11.3	14
2016-11-05	@ Rhyl	W 1-0	40.7	1116	1048	42.75%	24.78%	32.47%	+0.23	+11.3	16
2016-11-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	43.3	1197	1269	31.80%	24.76%	43.44%	-0.26	-18.2	16
2016-11-05	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	43.3	1269	1197	43.44%	24.76%	31.80%	+0.26	+18.2	27
2016-11-05	Newtown	L 0-2	42.4	1132	1096	46.68%	24.61%	28.72%	+0.41	-28.3	12
2016-11-05	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	42.4	1096	1132	28.72%	24.61%	46.68%	-0.41	+28.3	11
2016-11-05	The New Saints	L 1-2	40.6	1225	1530	11.17%	20.99%	67.85%	-1.68	-4.1	24
2016-11-05	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	40.6	1530	1225	67.85%	20.99%	11.17%	+1.68	+4.1	42
2016-11-11	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	32.9	1252	1178	51.48%	24.23%	24.28%	+0.64	+32.0	24
2016-11-11	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	32.9	1178	1252	24.28%	24.23%	51.48%	-0.64	-32.0	16
2016-11-13	Airbus UK	W 2-0	34.5	1211	1103	55.36%	23.78%	20.86%	+0.85	+14.8	20
2016-11-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	34.5	1103	1211	20.86%	23.78%	55.36%	-0.85	-14.8	12
2016-11-13	Bangor City	L 1-2	44.4	1125	1221	28.81%	24.61%	46.58%	-0.40	-9.7	11
2016-11-13	@ Newtown	W 2-1	44.4	1221	1125	46.58%	24.61%	28.81%	+0.40	+9.7	27
2016-11-13	Cefn Druids	D 2-2	57.8	1127	1003	57.15%	23.51%	19.33%	+0.95	-2.0	17
2016-11-13	@ Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	57.8	1003	1127	19.33%	23.51%	57.15%	-0.95	+2.0	13
2016-11-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	37.6	1196	1287	29.39%	24.64%	45.97%	-0.37	-19.7	18
2016-11-13	@ Llandudno	W 2-0	37.6	1287	1196	45.97%	24.64%	29.39%	+0.37	+19.7	30
2016-11-18	The New Saints	L 2-4	38.9	1125	1534	6.88%	18.15%	74.97%	-2.31	-3.8	17
2016-11-18	@ Carmarthen Town	W 4-2	38.9	1534	1125	74.97%	18.15%	6.88%	+2.31	+3.8	45
2016-11-19	Bala Town	L 1-3	41.9	1176	1284	27.38%	24.51%	48.11%	-0.47	-16.1	18
2016-11-19	@ Llandudno	W 3-1	41.9	1284	1176	48.11%	24.51%	27.38%	+0.47	+16.1	27
2016-11-19	Bangor City	W 4-0	36.1	1226	1231	41.28%	24.82%	33.90%	+0.16	+41.9	23
2016-11-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	36.1	1231	1226	33.90%	24.82%	41.28%	-0.16	-41.9	27
2016-11-19	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	52.8	1115	1307	18.80%	23.41%	57.79%	-0.99	+17.1	14
2016-11-19	@ Newtown	L 1-2	52.8	1307	1115	57.79%	23.41%	18.80%	+0.99	-17.1	30
2016-11-19	Rhyl	L 0-3	41.1	1088	1037	48.74%	24.47%	26.79%	+0.50	-42.7	12
2016-11-19	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	41.1	1037	1088	26.79%	24.47%	48.74%	-0.50	+42.7	17
2016-11-25	Airbus UK	W 4-0	24.2	1538	1046	82.58%	13.97%	3.45%	+3.20	+4.3	48
2016-11-25	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	24.2	1046	1538	3.45%	13.97%	82.58%	-3.20	-4.3	12
2016-11-25	Bala Town	L 1-3	40.2	1146	1300	22.36%	24.00%	53.64%	-0.75	-13.6	16
2016-11-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	40.2	1300	1146	53.64%	24.00%	22.36%	+0.75	+13.6	30
2016-11-25	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.5	1080	1290	17.30%	23.09%	59.61%	-1.10	-6.3	17
2016-11-25	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	40.5	1290	1080	59.61%	23.09%	17.30%	+1.10	+6.3	33
2016-11-25	Newtown	W 1-0	46.0	1005	1132	25.20%	24.33%	50.47%	-0.59	+16.1	16
2016-11-25	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-1	46.0	1132	1005	50.47%	24.33%	25.20%	+0.59	-16.1	14
2016-11-26	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	50.8	1189	1121	50.69%	24.31%	25.01%	+0.60	-15.2	27
2016-11-26	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	50.8	1121	1189	25.01%	24.31%	50.69%	-0.60	+15.2	20
2016-11-27	Llandudno	D 1-1	53.0	1268	1160	55.36%	23.78%	20.86%	+0.85	-2.5	24
2016-11-27	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	53.0	1160	1268	20.86%	23.78%	55.36%	-0.85	+2.5	19
2016-12-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	38.7	1542	1265	70.33%	20.12%	9.56%	+1.88	+6.0	51
2016-12-10	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	38.7	1265	1542	9.56%	20.12%	70.33%	-1.88	-6.0	24
2016-12-10	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	37.5	1162	1137	45.43%	24.67%	29.90%	+0.35	+20.0	22
2016-12-10	@ Llandudno	L 0-2	37.5	1137	1162	29.90%	24.67%	45.43%	-0.35	-20.0	20
2016-12-10	Newtown	L 1-3	44.3	1073	1116	35.91%	24.85%	39.24%	-0.07	-20.0	17
2016-12-10	@ Rhyl	W 3-1	44.3	1116	1073	39.24%	24.85%	35.91%	+0.07	+20.0	17
2016-12-13	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	32.5	1296	1021	70.26%	20.14%	9.60%	+1.87	+3.7	36
2016-12-13	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	32.5	1021	1296	9.60%	20.14%	70.26%	-1.87	-3.7	16
2016-12-14	The New Saints	L 1-2	35.2	1053	1548	4.59%	15.66%	79.75%	-2.84	-1.5	17
2016-12-14	@ Rhyl	W 2-1	35.2	1548	1053	79.75%	15.66%	4.59%	+2.84	+1.5	54
2016-12-16	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	34.4	1017	1133	26.51%	24.45%	49.05%	-0.52	-26.4	16
2016-12-16	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	34.4	1133	1017	49.05%	24.45%	26.51%	+0.52	+26.3	19
2016-12-17	Airbus UK	W 2-1	40.9	1174	1042	57.93%	23.39%	18.68%	+1.00	+6.7	30
2016-12-17	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	40.9	1042	1174	18.68%	23.39%	57.93%	-1.00	-6.7	12
2016-12-17	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	38.7	1136	1259	25.62%	24.37%	50.01%	-0.57	-9.3	17
2016-12-17	@ Newtown	W 1-0	38.7	1259	1136	50.01%	24.37%	25.62%	+0.57	+9.4	27
2016-12-17	Llandudno	W 3-0	32.1	1314	1182	57.89%	23.39%	18.72%	+0.99	+19.5	33
2016-12-17	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	32.1	1182	1314	18.72%	23.39%	57.89%	-0.99	-19.5	22
2016-12-17	Rhyl	W 5-0	32.9	1117	1052	50.37%	24.34%	25.29%	+0.58	+40.8	23
2016-12-17	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-5	32.9	1052	1117	25.29%	24.34%	50.37%	-0.58	-40.8	17
2016-12-17	The New Saints	L 0-3	35.0	1300	1549	14.45%	22.29%	63.26%	-1.34	-15.3	36
2016-12-17	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-0	35.0	1549	1300	63.26%	22.29%	14.45%	+1.34	+15.3	57
2016-12-20	Bala Town	L 2-4	39.9	1035	1334	11.48%	21.13%	67.39%	-1.64	-6.5	12
2016-12-20	@ Airbus UK	W 4-2	39.9	1334	1035	67.39%	21.13%	11.48%	+1.64	+6.5	36
2016-12-20	Bangor City	L 0-3	38.3	1159	1180	38.96%	24.85%	36.19%	+0.06	-35.6	19
2016-12-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	38.3	1180	1159	36.19%	24.85%	38.96%	-0.06	+35.6	33
2016-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	48.8	1157	1269	27.03%	24.49%	48.49%	-0.49	+1.7	24
2016-12-26	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.8	1269	1157	48.49%	24.49%	27.03%	+0.49	-1.7	28
2016-12-26	Cefn Druids	W 4-0	23.0	1565	991	85.96%	11.74%	2.30%	+3.70	+2.7	60
2016-12-26	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	23.0	991	1565	2.30%	11.74%	85.96%	-3.70	-2.7	16
2016-12-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	30.0	1028	1285	13.98%	22.14%	63.88%	-1.38	-14.9	12
2016-12-26	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	30.0	1285	1028	63.88%	22.14%	13.98%	+1.38	+14.9	39
2016-12-26	Llandudno	W 2-1	43.7	1216	1163	48.91%	24.46%	26.63%	+0.51	+9.1	36
2016-12-26	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	43.7	1163	1216	26.63%	24.46%	48.91%	-0.51	-9.1	22
2016-12-26	Newtown	W 1-0	41.1	1124	1127	41.51%	24.81%	33.68%	+0.17	+11.6	22
2016-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	41.1	1127	1124	33.68%	24.81%	41.51%	-0.17	-11.6	17
2016-12-26	Rhyl	W 6-1	28.9	1340	1011	73.86%	18.66%	7.48%	+2.20	+10.3	39
2016-12-26	@ Bala Town	L 1-6	28.9	1011	1340	7.48%	18.66%	73.86%	-2.20	-10.3	17
2016-12-30	Airbus UK	W 5-1	30.8	1300	1013	71.01%	19.86%	9.14%	+1.94	+10.5	42
2016-12-30	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-5	30.8	1013	1300	9.14%	19.86%	71.01%	-1.94	-10.5	12
2016-12-30	Bala Town	W 2-0	48.4	1001	1350	9.06%	19.80%	71.14%	-1.95	+41.2	20
2016-12-30	@ Rhyl	L 0-2	48.4	1350	1001	71.14%	19.80%	9.06%	+1.95	-41.2	39
2016-12-30	The New Saints	L 0-2	26.6	988	1567	3.04%	13.25%	83.71%	-3.36	-1.9	16
2016-12-30	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	26.6	1567	988	83.71%	13.25%	3.04%	+3.36	+2.0	63
2016-12-31	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.5	1115	1135	39.08%	24.85%	36.07%	+0.06	-0.2	18
2016-12-31	@ Newtown	D 2-2	57.5	1135	1115	36.07%	24.85%	39.08%	-0.06	+0.1	23
2016-12-31	Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	50.0	1267	1159	55.37%	23.78%	20.86%	+0.85	-28.5	28
2016-12-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	50.0	1159	1267	20.86%	23.78%	55.37%	-0.85	+28.5	27
2017-01-01	Bangor City	W 1-0	44.1	1154	1225	32.01%	24.76%	43.22%	-0.25	+14.1	25
2017-01-01	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	44.1	1225	1154	43.22%	24.76%	32.01%	+0.25	-14.1	36
2017-01-07	Cefn Druids	L 0-1	48.3	1135	986	59.66%	23.08%	17.27%	+1.10	-18.7	23
2017-01-07	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	48.3	986	1135	17.27%	23.08%	59.66%	-1.10	+18.7	19
2017-01-14	Bangor City	W 4-2	54.7	1003	1211	17.50%	23.13%	59.37%	-1.08	+27.1	15
2017-01-14	@ Airbus UK	L 2-4	54.7	1211	1003	59.37%	23.13%	17.50%	+1.08	-27.1	36
2017-01-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	36.2	1117	1238	25.80%	24.38%	49.82%	-0.56	-17.7	23
2017-01-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	36.2	1238	1117	49.82%	24.38%	25.80%	+0.56	+17.8	31
2017-01-14	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	48.9	1005	1188	19.63%	23.57%	56.80%	-0.93	+3.0	20
2017-01-14	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.9	1188	1005	56.80%	23.57%	19.63%	+0.93	-3.0	28
2017-01-14	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	49.5	1309	1310	41.83%	24.80%	33.37%	+0.18	-0.6	40
2017-01-14	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.5	1310	1309	33.37%	24.80%	41.83%	-0.18	+0.6	43
2017-01-14	Newtown	D 3-3	66.0	1569	1115	80.84%	15.03%	4.13%	+2.97	-3.6	64
2017-01-14	@ The New Saints	D 3-3	66.0	1115	1569	4.13%	15.03%	80.84%	-2.97	+3.6	19
2017-01-14	Rhyl	D 2-2	57.9	1168	1042	57.31%	23.49%	19.20%	+0.96	-2.1	26
2017-01-14	@ Llandudno	D 2-2	57.9	1042	1168	19.20%	23.49%	57.31%	-0.96	+2.1	21

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2017-02-04	Airbus UK	W 1-0	38.3	1099	1030	50.86%	24.29%	24.85%	+0.61	+9.1	3
2017-02-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	38.3	1030	1099	24.85%	24.29%	50.86%	-0.61	-9.1	0
2017-02-04	Bangor City	W 3-2	46.2	1309	1184	57.20%	23.51%	19.29%	+0.95	+6.5	3
2017-02-04	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	46.2	1184	1309	19.29%	23.51%	57.20%	-0.95	-6.6	0
2017-02-04	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	33.4	1566	1256	72.60%	19.21%	8.19%	+2.08	+5.9	3
2017-02-04	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	33.4	1256	1566	8.19%	19.21%	72.60%	-2.08	-5.9	0
2017-02-04	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	48.2	1311	1185	57.31%	23.49%	19.20%	+0.96	-18.0	0
2017-02-04	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	48.2	1185	1311	19.20%	23.49%	57.31%	-0.96	+18.0	3
2017-02-04	Cefn Druids	L 0-2	42.4	1044	1008	46.78%	24.60%	28.62%	+0.41	-28.4	0
2017-02-04	@ Rhyl	W 2-0	42.4	1008	1044	28.62%	24.60%	46.78%	-0.41	+28.4	3
2017-02-04	Newtown	L 1-2	50.1	1166	1118	48.24%	24.50%	27.25%	+0.48	-14.6	0
2017-02-04	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	50.1	1118	1166	27.25%	24.50%	48.24%	-0.48	+14.6	3
2017-02-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	41.6	1315	1250	50.39%	24.33%	25.27%	+0.59	+15.1	6
2017-02-10	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	41.6	1250	1315	25.27%	24.33%	50.39%	-0.59	-15.1	0
2017-02-10	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	50.6	1177	1293	26.52%	24.45%	49.03%	-0.52	+14.8	3
2017-02-10	@ Bangor City	L 1-2	50.6	1293	1177	49.03%	24.45%	26.52%	+0.52	-14.8	0
2017-02-10	Llandudno	D 0-0	48.6	1021	1151	24.86%	24.29%	50.85%	-0.61	+2.0	1
2017-02-10	@ Airbus UK	D 0-0	48.6	1151	1021	50.85%	24.29%	24.86%	+0.61	-2.0	1
2017-02-11	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	48.7	1036	1108	31.92%	24.76%	43.32%	-0.25	+13.3	6
2017-02-11	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-2	48.7	1108	1036	43.32%	24.76%	31.92%	+0.25	-13.3	3
2017-02-11	Rhyl	W 3-2	46.0	1133	1016	56.39%	23.63%	19.98%	+0.91	+6.8	6
2017-02-11	@ Newtown	L 2-3	46.0	1016	1133	19.98%	23.63%	56.39%	-0.91	-6.8	0
2017-02-11	The New Saints	W 1-0	54.1	1203	1572	8.27%	19.27%	72.45%	-2.07	+22.1	6
2017-02-11	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	54.1	1572	1203	72.45%	19.27%	8.27%	+2.07	-22.2	3
2017-02-17	Newtown	L 1-2	44.5	1050	1140	29.57%	24.65%	45.77%	-0.36	-9.9	6
2017-02-17	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	44.5	1140	1050	45.77%	24.65%	29.57%	+0.36	+9.9	9
2017-02-18	Bala Town	L 0-1	39.8	1225	1330	27.69%	24.54%	47.78%	-0.46	-10.0	6
2017-02-18	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	39.8	1330	1225	47.78%	24.54%	27.69%	+0.46	+10.0	9
2017-02-18	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	52.4	1192	1235	35.80%	24.85%	39.36%	-0.08	+11.7	6
2017-02-18	@ Bangor City	L 2-3	52.4	1235	1192	39.36%	24.85%	35.80%	+0.08	-11.7	0
2017-02-18	Llandudno	L 3-4	53.7	1095	1149	34.23%	24.82%	40.95%	-0.15	-10.3	3
2017-02-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-3	53.7	1149	1095	40.95%	24.82%	34.23%	+0.15	+10.3	4
2017-02-18	Rhyl	L 0-2	41.6	1023	1009	43.87%	24.74%	31.39%	+0.28	-26.9	1
2017-02-18	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	41.6	1009	1023	31.39%	24.74%	43.87%	-0.28	+26.9	3
2017-03-03	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	57.4	1036	1084	35.05%	24.84%	40.11%	-0.11	+0.2	4
2017-03-03	@ Rhyl	D 2-2	57.4	1084	1036	40.11%	24.84%	35.05%	+0.11	-0.2	4
2017-03-03	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.9	1160	1040	56.67%	23.59%	19.74%	+0.92	-3.0	5
2017-03-03	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	48.9	1040	1160	19.74%	23.59%	56.67%	-0.92	+3.0	7
2017-03-03	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	53.6	1340	1278	50.09%	24.36%	25.55%	+0.57	-1.7	10
2017-03-03	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.6	1278	1340	25.55%	24.36%	50.09%	-0.57	+1.7	1
2017-03-04	Airbus UK	W 4-1	35.8	1150	996	60.08%	23.00%	16.93%	+1.13	+15.0	12
2017-03-04	@ Newtown	L 1-4	35.8	996	1150	16.93%	23.00%	60.08%	-1.13	-15.0	1
2017-03-04	Bangor City	W 4-0	28.4	1550	1204	74.91%	18.18%	6.91%	+2.31	+9.3	6
2017-03-04	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	28.4	1204	1550	6.91%	18.18%	74.91%	-2.31	-9.3	6
2017-03-04	Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	57.7	1224	1215	43.13%	24.77%	32.11%	+0.24	-0.6	1
2017-03-04	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	57.7	1215	1224	32.11%	24.77%	43.13%	-0.24	+0.5	7
2017-03-10	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.5	981	1043	33.29%	24.80%	41.91%	-0.19	+0.7	2
2017-03-10	@ Airbus UK	D 0-0	48.5	1043	981	41.91%	24.80%	33.29%	+0.19	-0.6	8
2017-03-10	Newtown	L 0-4	34.8	1084	1165	30.80%	24.71%	44.49%	-0.30	-38.9	4
2017-03-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	34.8	1165	1084	44.49%	24.71%	30.80%	+0.30	+38.8	15
2017-03-10	Rhyl	D 1-1	52.8	1157	1036	56.74%	23.58%	19.68%	+0.93	-2.7	6
2017-03-10	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	52.8	1036	1157	19.68%	23.58%	56.74%	-0.93	+2.7	5
2017-03-11	Bangor City	L 2-3	54.0	1215	1194	44.78%	24.70%	30.52%	+0.32	-13.0	7
2017-03-11	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	54.0	1194	1215	30.52%	24.70%	44.78%	-0.32	+13.0	9
2017-03-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	36.6	1280	1223	49.38%	24.42%	26.20%	+0.54	+18.0	4
2017-03-11	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	36.6	1223	1280	26.20%	24.42%	49.38%	-0.54	-18.0	1
2017-03-12	Bala Town	W 3-2	49.4	1559	1339	66.03%	21.55%	12.42%	+1.54	+4.3	9
2017-03-12	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	49.4	1339	1559	12.42%	21.55%	66.03%	-1.54	-4.3	10
2017-03-17	Bala Town	L 1-2	43.7	1207	1334	25.23%	24.33%	50.44%	-0.59	-8.7	9
2017-03-17	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	43.7	1334	1207	50.44%	24.33%	25.23%	+0.59	+8.7	13
2017-03-17	Rhyl	W 4-1	41.1	1042	1039	42.38%	24.79%	32.83%	+0.21	+26.4	11
2017-03-17	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-4	41.1	1039	1042	32.83%	24.79%	42.38%	-0.21	-26.4	5
2017-03-18	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	50.0	982	1045	33.01%	24.79%	42.19%	-0.20	+20.2	5
2017-03-18	@ Airbus UK	L 2-4	50.0	1045	982	42.19%	24.79%	33.01%	+0.20	-20.2	4
2017-03-18	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	42.5	1202	1298	28.94%	24.62%	46.44%	-0.39	-16.9	7
2017-03-18	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	42.5	1298	1202	46.44%	24.62%	28.94%	+0.39	+16.9	7
2017-03-18	The New Saints	L 0-5	29.5	1205	1563	8.71%	19.57%	71.72%	-2.00	-14.7	1
2017-03-18	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-0	29.5	1563	1205	71.72%	19.57%	8.71%	+2.00	+14.7	12
2017-03-19	Llandudno	D 2-2	57.7	1203	1154	48.49%	24.49%	27.03%	+0.49	-1.1	16
2017-03-19	@ Newtown	D 2-2	57.7	1154	1203	27.03%	24.49%	48.49%	-0.49	+1.1	7
2017-03-21	The New Saints	W 2-1	60.3	1314	1578	13.53%	21.98%	64.49%	-1.42	+18.9	10
2017-03-21	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	60.3	1578	1314	64.49%	21.98%	13.53%	+1.42	-18.9	12
2017-03-25	Airbus UK	D 2-2	58.0	1155	1002	60.04%	23.00%	16.96%	+1.13	-2.4	8
2017-03-25	@ Llandudno	D 2-2	58.0	1002	1155	16.96%	23.00%	60.04%	-1.13	+2.4	6
2017-03-25	Bala Town	L 2-3	47.5	1190	1343	22.50%	24.02%	53.48%	-0.75	-7.5	1
2017-03-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	47.5	1343	1190	53.48%	24.02%	22.50%	+0.75	+7.5	16
2017-03-25	Bangor City	D 1-1	53.4	1333	1199	58.21%	23.34%	18.45%	+1.01	-2.9	11
2017-03-25	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	53.4	1199	1333	18.45%	23.34%	58.21%	-1.01	+2.9	10
2017-03-25	Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	30.6	1559	1185	76.54%	17.39%	6.07%	+2.47	+4.2	15
2017-03-25	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	30.6	1185	1559	6.07%	17.39%	76.54%	-2.47	-4.2	7
2017-03-25	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	48.4	1025	1068	35.81%	24.85%	39.34%	-0.08	+0.3	5
2017-03-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.4	1068	1025	39.34%	24.85%	35.81%	+0.08	-0.3	12
2017-03-26	Newtown	L 0-2	33.8	1012	1202	19.00%	23.45%	57.55%	-0.97	-13.6	5
2017-03-26	@ Rhyl	W 2-0	33.8	1202	1012	57.55%	23.45%	19.00%	+0.97	+13.6	19
2017-04-07	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	39.6	1563	1330	67.04%	21.24%	11.72%	+1.61	+4.5	18
2017-04-07	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	39.6	1330	1563	11.72%	21.24%	67.04%	-1.61	-4.5	11
2017-04-08	Airbus UK	W 2-1	45.9	999	1004	41.15%	24.82%	34.03%	+0.15	+11.1	8
2017-04-08	@ Rhyl	L 1-2	45.9	1004	999	34.03%	24.82%	41.15%	-0.15	-11.1	6
2017-04-08	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	53.6	1351	1181	61.58%	22.68%	15.73%	+1.22	-3.4	17
2017-04-08	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.6	1181	1351	15.73%	22.68%	61.58%	-1.22	+3.4	8
2017-04-08	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.0	1216	1068	59.53%	23.10%	17.37%	+1.09	-3.1	20
2017-04-08	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.0	1068	1216	17.37%	23.10%	59.53%	-1.09	+3.1	13
2017-04-09	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	45.3	1153	1025	57.44%	23.47%	19.09%	+0.97	-34.0	8
2017-04-09	@ Llandudno	W 2-0	45.3	1025	1153	19.09%	23.47%	57.44%	-0.97	+34.0	8
2017-04-09	Bangor City	L 2-3	52.4	1183	1202	39.30%	24.85%	35.85%	+0.07	-11.7	1
2017-04-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	52.4	1202	1183	35.85%	24.85%	39.30%	-0.07	+11.7	13
2017-04-14	Bala Town	W 2-0	40.9	1326	1347	38.95%	24.85%	36.20%	+0.06	+23.2	14
2017-04-14	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	40.9	1347	1326	36.20%	24.85%	38.95%	-0.06	-23.2	17
2017-04-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	38.8	1185	1171	43.78%	24.74%	31.47%	+0.27	-51.0	8
2017-04-14	@ Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	38.8	1171	1185	31.47%	24.74%	43.78%	-0.27	+51.0	4
2017-04-14	Llandudno	W 3-2	52.4	1071	1119	35.21%	24.84%	39.95%	-0.10	+11.9	16
2017-04-14	@ Cefn Druids	L 2-3	52.4	1119	1071	39.95%	24.84%	35.21%	+0.10	-11.9	8
2017-04-14	Newtown	L 0-7	30.6	993	1213	16.58%	22.91%	60.51%	-1.16	-38.7	6
2017-04-14	@ Airbus UK	W 7-0	30.6	1213	993	60.51%	22.91%	16.58%	+1.16	+38.7	23
2017-04-14	Rhyl	W 4-0	33.6	1059	1010	48.50%	24.49%	27.01%	+0.49	+35.0	11
2017-04-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	33.6	1010	1059	27.01%	24.49%	48.50%	-0.49	-35.0	8
2017-04-14	The New Saints	W 3-0	49.7	1213	1568	8.86%	19.67%	71.47%	-1.98	+60.0	16
2017-04-14	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	49.7	1568	1213	71.47%	19.67%	8.86%	+1.98	-60.0	18
2017-04-22	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-1	33.0	1252	1094	60.44%	22.92%	16.64%	+1.15	+23.4	26
2017-04-22	@ Newtown	L 1-6	33.0	1094	1252	16.64%	22.92%	60.44%	-1.15	-23.4	11
2017-04-22	Airbus UK	W 3-1	38.7	1083	955	57.56%	23.45%	18.99%	+0.97	+11.8	19
2017-04-22	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	38.7	955	1083	18.99%	23.45%	57.56%	-0.97	-11.8	6
2017-04-22	Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	45.8	1273	1134	58.70%	23.25%	18.04%	+1.04	-34.7	16
2017-04-22	@ Bangor City	W 2-0	45.8	1134	1273	18.04%	23.25%	58.70%	-1.04	+34.7	11
2017-04-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	49.4	1222	1349	25.22%	24.33%	50.45%	-0.59	+2.0	5
2017-04-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.4	1349	1222	50.45%	24.33%	25.22%	+0.59	-2.0	15
2017-04-22	Llandudno	D 1-1	52.6	975	1107	24.68%	24.28%	51.05%	-0.62	+1.9	9
2017-04-22	@ Rhyl	D 1-1	52.6	1107	975	51.05%	24.28%	24.68%	+0.62	-1.8	9
2017-04-22	The New Saints	L 4-6	50.2	1324	1508	19.54%	23.55%	56.91%	-0.94	-9.9	17
2017-04-22	@ Bala Town	W 6-4	50.2	1508	1324	56.91%	23.55%	19.54%	+0.94	+9.9	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2017-02-11	8.27%	@ Carmarthen Town	1203	1	The New Saints	1572	0
2	2017-04-14	8.86%	@ Bangor City	1213	3	The New Saints	1568	0
3	2016-12-30	9.06%	@ Rhyl	1001	2	Bala Town	1350	0
4	2017-03-21	13.53%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1314	2	The New Saints	1578	1
5	2016-08-20	17.20%	Cefn Druids	998	3	@ Rhyl	1148	0
6	2017-01-07	17.27%	Cefn Druids	986	1	@ Aberystwyth Town	1135	0
7	2017-01-14	17.50%	@ Airbus UK	1003	4	Bangor City	1211	2
8	2017-04-22	18.04%	Carmarthen Town	1134	2	@ Bangor City	1273	0
9	2016-11-19	18.80%	@ Newtown	1115	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1307	1
10	2017-04-09	19.09%	Aberystwyth Town	1025	2	@ Llandudno	1153	0
11	2017-02-04	19.20%	Carmarthen Town	1185	1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1311	0
12	2016-12-31	20.86%	Carmarthen Town	1159	3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1267	1
13	2016-09-20	21.69%	Aberystwyth Town	1089	5	@ Carmarthen Town	1188	0
14	2016-08-31	22.46%	@ Rhyl	1069	3	Aberystwyth Town	1222	1
15	2016-09-18	23.96%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1127	1	@ Llandudno	1204	0
16	2016-11-26	25.01%	Carmarthen Town	1121	2	@ Bangor City	1189	1
17	2016-08-27	25.20%	@ Bangor City	1150	2	Bala Town	1277	0
18	2016-11-25	25.20%	@ Cefn Druids	1005	1	Newtown	1132	0
19	2017-02-10	26.52%	@ Bangor City	1177	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1293	1
20	2016-11-19	26.79%	Rhyl	1037	3	@ Airbus UK	1088	0
21	2017-02-04	27.25%	Newtown	1118	2	@ Llandudno	1166	1
22	2017-02-04	28.62%	Cefn Druids	1008	2	@ Rhyl	1044	0
23	2016-11-05	28.72%	Newtown	1096	2	@ Airbus UK	1132	0
24	2016-09-30	29.59%	@ Cefn Druids	1043	4	Rhyl	1133	3
25	2016-08-21	30.44%	Aberystwyth Town	1195	1	@ Airbus UK	1217	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-09-20	75.74	Aberystwyth Town	5	1089	21.69%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1188	54.40%	23.91%
2	2017-04-14	59.99	@ Bangor City	3	1213	8.86%	The New Saints	0	1568	71.47%	19.67%
3	2016-08-20	51.22	Cefn Druids	3	998	17.20%	@ Rhyl	0	1148	59.74%	23.06%
4	2017-04-14	51.02	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1171	31.47%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1185	43.78%	24.74%
5	2016-11-19	42.71	Rhyl	3	1037	26.79%	@ Airbus UK	0	1088	48.74%	24.47%
6	2016-11-19	41.86	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1226	41.28%	Bangor City	0	1231	33.90%	24.82%
7	2016-09-03	41.78	@ Bangor City	4	1191	41.38%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1195	33.81%	24.81%
8	2016-12-30	41.15	@ Rhyl	2	1001	9.06%	Bala Town	0	1350	71.14%	19.80%
9	2016-12-17	40.82	@ Carmarthen Town	5	1117	50.37%	Rhyl	0	1052	25.29%	24.34%
10	2016-08-20	39.31	The New Saints	5	1359	51.60%	@ Llandudno	0	1222	24.18%	24.22%
11	2017-03-10	38.85	Newtown	4	1165	44.49%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1084	30.80%	24.71%
12	2017-04-14	38.69	Newtown	7	1213	60.51%	@ Airbus UK	0	993	16.58%	22.91%
13	2016-10-14	38.46	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1142	44.89%	Rhyl	0	1120	30.41%	24.70%
14	2016-09-10	38.00	Carmarthen Town	3	1150	32.89%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1153	42.32%	24.79%
15	2016-12-20	35.62	Bangor City	3	1180	36.19%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1159	38.96%	24.85%
16	2016-10-16	35.51	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1157	54.66%	Cefn Druids	0	1056	21.46%	23.87%
17	2017-04-14	34.97	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1059	48.50%	Rhyl	0	1010	27.01%	24.49%
18	2017-04-22	34.70	Carmarthen Town	2	1134	18.04%	@ Bangor City	0	1273	58.70%	23.25%
19	2017-04-09	34.02	Aberystwyth Town	2	1025	19.09%	@ Llandudno	0	1153	57.44%	23.47%
20	2016-11-11	32.01	@ Bala Town	4	1252	51.48%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1178	24.28%	24.23%
21	2016-08-27	30.31	@ Bangor City	2	1150	25.20%	Bala Town	0	1277	50.48%	24.33%
22	2016-12-31	28.50	Carmarthen Town	3	1159	20.86%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1267	55.37%	23.78%
23	2017-02-04	28.41	Cefn Druids	2	1008	28.62%	@ Rhyl	0	1044	46.78%	24.60%
24	2016-11-05	28.35	Newtown	2	1096	28.72%	@ Airbus UK	0	1132	46.68%	24.61%
25	2016-08-28	27.79	@ The New Saints	10	1398	72.04%	Rhyl	0	1097	8.52%	19.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2017-01-14	66.0	@ The New Saints	3	1569	80.84%	Newtown	3	1115	4.13%	15.03%
2	2016-10-21	64.0	@ Cefn Druids	4	1020	17.00%	Bala Town	4	1234	59.98%	23.01%
3	2016-10-16	61.8	@ Bala Town	3	1236	53.05%	Airbus UK	3	1148	22.88%	24.07%
4	2016-09-17	61.5	@ Newtown	3	1158	45.41%	Rhyl	3	1132	29.92%	24.67%
5	2017-03-21	60.3	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1314	13.53%	The New Saints	1	1578	64.49%	21.98%
6	2016-10-16	58.0	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1285	51.56%	Bangor City	2	1211	24.21%	24.23%
7	2017-03-25	58.0	@ Llandudno	2	1155	60.04%	Airbus UK	2	1002	16.96%	23.00%
8	2017-01-14	57.9	@ Llandudno	2	1168	57.31%	Rhyl	2	1042	19.20%	23.49%
9	2016-11-13	57.8	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1127	57.15%	Cefn Druids	2	1003	19.33%	23.51%
10	2017-03-04	57.7	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1224	43.13%	Carmarthen Town	2	1215	32.11%	24.77%
11	2017-03-19	57.7	@ Newtown	2	1203	48.49%	Llandudno	2	1154	27.03%	24.49%
12	2016-09-20	57.5	@ Cefn Druids	2	1038	28.11%	Airbus UK	2	1140	47.32%	24.57%
13	2016-12-31	57.5	@ Newtown	2	1115	39.08%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1135	36.07%	24.85%
14	2017-03-03	57.4	@ Rhyl	2	1036	35.05%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1084	40.11%	24.84%
15	2016-09-30	57.0	@ Cefn Druids	4	1043	29.59%	Rhyl	3	1133	45.75%	24.66%
16	2017-01-14	54.7	@ Airbus UK	4	1003	17.50%	Bangor City	2	1211	59.37%	23.13%
17	2017-02-11	54.1	@ Carmarthen Town	1	1203	8.27%	The New Saints	0	1572	72.45%	19.27%
18	2017-03-11	54.0	Bangor City	3	1194	30.52%	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1215	44.78%	24.70%
19	2017-02-18	53.7	Llandudno	4	1149	40.95%	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1095	34.23%	24.82%
20	2017-03-03	53.6	@ Bala Town	1	1340	50.09%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1278	25.55%	24.36%
21	2017-04-08	53.6	@ Bala Town	1	1351	61.58%	Carmarthen Town	1	1181	15.73%	22.68%
22	2017-03-25	53.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1333	58.21%	Bangor City	1	1199	18.45%	23.34%
23	2016-11-27	53.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1268	55.36%	Llandudno	1	1160	20.86%	23.78%
24	2017-04-08	53.0	@ Newtown	1	1216	59.53%	Cefn Druids	1	1068	17.37%	23.10%
25	2016-09-20	52.9	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1267	52.12%	Llandudno	1	1188	23.71%	24.17%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-12-26	23.0	@ The New Saints	4	1565	85.96%	Cefn Druids	0	991	2.30%	11.74%
2	2016-11-25	24.2	@ The New Saints	4	1538	82.58%	Airbus UK	0	1046	3.45%	13.97%
3	2016-12-30	26.6	The New Saints	2	1567	83.71%	@ Cefn Druids	0	988	3.04%	13.25%
4	2016-10-15	28.2	@ The New Saints	5	1501	72.15%	Llandudno	0	1198	8.45%	19.40%
5	2016-08-28	28.4	@ The New Saints	10	1398	72.04%	Rhyl	0	1097	8.52%	19.44%
6	2017-03-04	28.4	@ The New Saints	4	1550	74.91%	Bangor City	0	1204	6.91%	18.18%
7	2016-12-26	28.9	@ Bala Town	6	1340	73.86%	Rhyl	1	1011	7.48%	18.66%
8	2017-03-18	29.5	The New Saints	5	1563	71.72%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1205	8.71%	19.57%
9	2016-12-26	30.0	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1285	63.88%	@ Airbus UK	0	1028	13.98%	22.14%
10	2016-09-11	30.2	@ The New Saints	4	1443	65.22%	Bangor City	0	1233	13.00%	21.78%
11	2017-03-25	30.6	@ The New Saints	2	1559	76.54%	Carmarthen Town	0	1185	6.07%	17.39%
12	2017-04-14	30.6	Newtown	7	1213	60.51%	@ Airbus UK	0	993	16.58%	22.91%
13	2016-12-30	30.8	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1300	71.01%	Airbus UK	1	1013	9.14%	19.86%
14	2016-09-18	31.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1241	57.32%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1115	19.19%	23.49%
15	2016-10-30	31.2	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1195	56.69%	Rhyl	0	1075	19.72%	23.59%
16	2016-10-16	31.6	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1157	54.66%	Cefn Druids	0	1056	21.46%	23.87%
17	2016-10-23	31.9	The New Saints	1	1515	75.51%	@ Newtown	0	1097	6.60%	17.90%
18	2016-09-11	32.1	@ Bala Town	2	1245	63.32%	Cefn Druids	0	1056	14.40%	22.28%
19	2016-12-17	32.1	@ Bala Town	3	1314	57.89%	Llandudno	0	1182	18.72%	23.39%
20	2016-10-01	32.2	The New Saints	5	1490	70.24%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1153	9.61%	20.15%
21	2016-10-30	32.5	@ The New Saints	3	1517	67.29%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1282	11.55%	21.17%
22	2016-12-13	32.5	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1296	70.26%	Cefn Druids	0	1021	9.60%	20.14%
23	2016-11-11	32.9	@ Bala Town	4	1252	51.48%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1178	24.28%	24.23%
24	2016-12-17	32.9	@ Carmarthen Town	5	1117	50.37%	Rhyl	0	1052	25.29%	24.34%
25	2017-04-22	33.0	@ Newtown	6	1252	60.44%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1094	16.64%	22.92%