2017-18 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

74 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Barry Town United

10.57 points above expected

53 points · 42.43 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Newtown

5.38 points below expected

40 points · 45.38 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	17	2	3	53	58	22	+36	48.12	+4.88
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	12	5	5	41	35	20	+15	40.46	+0.54
3	Bangor City	22	12	3	7	39	36	24	+12	36.55	+2.45
4	Bala Town	22	12	3	7	39	26	29	-3	34.02	+4.98
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	11	5	6	38	35	17	+18	37.21	+0.79
6	Cefn Druids	22	8	7	7	31	23	25	-2	27.97	+3.03
7	Llandudno	22	7	7	8	28	22	20	+2	27.97	+0.03
8	Newtown	22	8	3	11	27	32	35	-3	34.15	-7.15
9	Barry Town United	22	8	3	11	27	20	25	-5	23.89	+3.11
10	Aberystwyth Town	22	6	4	12	22	31	41	-10	23.23	-1.23
11	Prestatyn Town	22	4	3	15	15	23	53	-30	15.43	-0.43
12	Carmarthen Town	22	3	3	16	12	16	46	-30	24.15	-12.15

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	23	5	4	74	83	32	+51	73.74	+0.26
2	Bangor City	32	19	3	10	60	49	32	+17	54.72	+5.28
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	17	6	9	57	46	29	+17	54.51	+2.49
4	Bala Town	32	15	4	13	49	37	48	-11	50.74	-1.74
5	Cefn Druids	32	12	8	12	44	38	41	-3	46.89	-2.89
6	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	12	7	13	43	46	41	+5	44.87	-1.87

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Barry Town United	32	16	5	11	53	39	31	+8	42.43	+10.57
2	Newtown	32	12	4	16	40	52	55	-3	45.38	-5.38
3	Aberystwyth Town	32	10	7	15	37	47	56	-9	41.53	-4.53
4	Llandudno	32	9	9	14	36	39	44	-5	38.84	-2.84
5	Carmarthen Town	32	8	5	19	29	35	62	-27	27.16	+1.84
6	Prestatyn Town	32	4	7	21	19	27	67	-40	20.07	-1.07

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Barry Town United	53	42.43	+10.57
2	Bangor City	60	54.72	+5.28
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	57	54.51	+2.49
4	Carmarthen Town	29	27.16	+1.84
5	The New Saints	74	73.74	+0.26

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Newtown	40	45.38	-5.38
2	Aberystwyth Town	37	41.53	-4.53
3	Cefn Druids	44	46.89	-2.89
4	Llandudno	36	38.84	-2.84
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	43	44.87	-1.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Barry Town United	6	Feb 3 – Mar 31	1 in 161
2	Carmarthen Town	3	Mar 24 – Apr 14	1 in 24
3	Bala Town	4	Oct 12 – Nov 3	1 in 22
4	Llandudno	3	Aug 12 – Aug 26	1 in 22
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	Sep 30 – Oct 21	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	6	Mar 16 – Apr 27	1 in 69
2	Prestatyn Town	9	Nov 24 – Feb 3	1 in 64
3	Bangor City	3	Oct 14 – Oct 27	1 in 58
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	Feb 3 – Feb 24	1 in 48
5	Newtown	4	Oct 12 – Nov 4	1 in 43

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Barry Town United	10	Feb 3 – Apr 27	1 in 69
2	Cefn Druids	7	Sep 15 – Oct 27	1 in 50
3	Bangor City	8	Nov 4 – Dec 26	1 in 29
4	Prestatyn Town	3	Sep 7 – Sep 23	1 in 24
5	Bala Town	6	Oct 12 – Nov 17	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carmarthen Town	13	Sep 21 – Dec 23	1 in 226
2	Newtown	7	Sep 23 – Nov 4	1 in 71
3	Prestatyn Town	18	Nov 24 – Apr 27	1 in 48
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	8	Feb 3 – Apr 14	1 in 38
5	Aberystwyth Town	8	Aug 13 – Oct 7	1 in 18

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1429	74	+9	10	10.8	-0.8
Bangor City	1272	60	+21	12	7.2	+4.8
Connah's Quay Nomads	1274	57	+0	9	7.8	+1.2
Barry Town United	1146	53	+13	11	9.3	+1.7
Bala Town	1161	49	-41	0	6.1	-6.1
Cefn Druids	1153	44	+34	9	4.8	+4.2
Cardiff Metropolitan	1163	43	-23	4	5.5	-1.5
Newtown	1137	40	-9	7	8.9	-1.9
Aberystwyth Town	1081	37	-5	7	7.4	-0.4
Llandudno	1080	36	-14	4	7.4	-3.4
Carmarthen Town	1047	29	+18	10	5.9	+4.1
Prestatyn Town	896	19	-13	2	3.6	-1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BC	BTU	CM	CT	CD	CQN	LLA	NEW	PT	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	0-1-1 1.74	0-0-2 1.71	0-2-2 5.35	0-1-1 1.64	0-2-2 6.22	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 1.36	2-0-2 4.79	3-0-1 3.96	3-1-0 7.35	0-0-2 0.91
Bala Town	1-1-0 3.89	—	1-0-3 4.83	2-0-0 3.60	3-0-1 5.52	1-0-1 3.64	2-0-2 6.91	0-2-2 4.53	1-1-0 3.27	2-0-0 2.74	2-0-0 4.48	0-0-4 3.12
Bangor City	2-0-0 3.93	3-0-1 6.41	—	0-1-1 3.94	2-0-2 5.85	1-1-0 3.98	3-0-1 7.18	3-0-1 4.68	0-1-1 3.78	2-0-0 3.13	1-0-1 4.41	2-0-2 3.29
Barry Town United	2-2-0 5.87	0-0-2 2.02	1-1-0 1.69	—	1-0-1 1.77	4-0-0 6.10	0-0-2 2.47	0-0-2 1.41	3-0-1 5.23	2-1-1 4.39	2-1-1 8.12	1-0-1 0.98
Cardiff Metropolitan	1-1-0 4.00	1-0-3 5.72	2-0-2 5.38	1-0-1 3.86	—	2-0-0 4.06	1-1-2 6.90	0-1-3 4.78	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.36	2-0-0 4.54	0-3-1 2.97
Carmarthen Town	2-2-0 5.01	1-0-1 1.99	0-1-1 1.66	0-0-4 5.13	0-0-2 1.58	—	0-1-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.63	1-1-2 4.94	2-0-2 4.01	2-0-2 7.42	0-0-2 1.11
Cefn Druids	1-0-1 3.25	2-0-2 4.33	1-0-3 4.07	2-0-0 3.15	2-1-1 4.34	1-1-0 3.25	—	1-1-2 3.31	1-1-0 2.64	0-2-0 2.06	1-1-0 3.89	0-1-3 2.25
Connah's Quay Nomads	1-0-1 4.29	2-2-0 6.70	1-0-3 6.56	2-0-0 4.24	3-1-0 6.46	2-0-0 4.01	2-1-1 7.97	—	0-1-1 3.90	2-0-0 3.47	2-0-0 4.71	0-1-3 3.88
Llandudno	2-0-2 6.45	0-1-1 2.35	1-1-0 1.85	1-0-3 6.00	0-1-1 2.01	2-1-1 6.29	0-1-1 2.98	1-1-0 1.73	—	1-0-3 4.94	1-3-0 8.05	0-0-2 1.27
Newtown	1-0-3 7.29	0-0-2 2.88	0-0-2 2.49	1-1-2 6.86	1-0-1 2.26	2-0-2 7.23	0-2-0 3.56	0-0-2 2.16	3-0-1 6.29	—	3-1-0 8.84	1-0-1 1.16
Prestatyn Town	0-1-3 3.91	0-0-2 1.19	1-0-1 1.25	1-1-2 3.17	0-0-2 1.13	2-0-2 3.83	0-1-1 1.75	0-0-2 0.97	0-3-1 3.23	0-1-3 2.48	—	0-0-2 0.61
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.79	4-0-0 8.17	2-0-2 7.98	1-0-1 4.71	1-3-0 8.33	2-0-0 4.57	3-1-0 9.10	3-1-0 7.38	2-0-0 4.38	1-0-1 4.51	2-0-0 5.14	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.59	+8.1
Allowed	0.76	-10.0
Differential	0.90	+6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.77%	10.94%	4.69%	4.69%	1.82%	0.78%	29.69%
1	10.94%	7.81%	6.51%	3.91%	1.04%	1.04%	31.25%
2	4.69%	6.51%	2.60%	3.39%	0.78%	0.52%	18.49%
3	4.69%	3.91%	3.39%	1.04%	0.52%	0.26%	13.80%
4	1.82%	1.04%	0.78%	0.52%	—	—	4.17%
5+	0.78%	1.04%	0.52%	0.26%	—	—	2.60%
Total	29.69%	31.25%	18.49%	13.80%	4.17%	2.60%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.40	1.40	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.95
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	28.12%
1	9.38%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	40.62%
2	—	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	15.62%	31.25%	28.12%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.75	-0.28
SD	1.63	1.27	2.08
CV	1.11	0.73	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	—	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	37.50%
2	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	43.75%	3.12%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.16	1.50	-0.34
SD	0.95	1.44	1.99
CV	0.83	0.96	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
1	21.88%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	34.38%
2	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	43.75%	28.12%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.00	+0.53
SD	1.32	1.14	1.67
CV	0.86	1.14	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	34.38%
1	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	40.62%	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	0.97	+0.25
SD	1.21	1.00	1.76
CV	0.99	1.03	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	28.12%
1	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
2	12.50%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	25.00%	18.75%	21.88%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.28	+0.16
SD	1.32	1.17	1.83
CV	0.92	0.91	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	43.75%
1	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	25.00%
2	—	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	3.12%	12.50%
3	—	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	21.88%	21.88%	3.12%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	1.94	-0.84
SD	1.23	1.50	1.92
CV	1.12	0.77	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	34.38%
1	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.28	-0.09
SD	1.09	1.20	1.77
CV	0.92	0.93	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
1	21.88%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
3	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	40.62%	40.62%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	0.91	+0.53
SD	1.32	1.03	1.83
CV	0.92	1.13	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	28.12%
1	12.50%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	34.38%
2	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	21.88%	21.88%	15.62%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.38	-0.16
SD	1.01	1.29	1.27
CV	0.83	0.94	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
2	3.12%	3.12%	—	9.38%	—	—	15.62%
3	9.38%	—	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
4	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	1.72	-0.09
SD	1.41	1.35	2.02
CV	0.87	0.79	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	46.88%
1	3.12%	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	34.38%
2	—	—	9.38%	—	—	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.84	2.09	-1.25
SD	1.05	1.63	1.92
CV	1.25	0.78	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
1	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
2	—	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
3	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
4	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	40.62%	37.50%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.59	1.00	+1.59
SD	1.54	1.22	1.97
CV	0.59	1.22	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1429	74	48.12	+25.88	82.0%	33	37	45	49	52	57	62
Connah's Quay Nomads	1274	57	40.46	+16.54	55.0%	26	31	36	41	44	49	54
Bangor City	1272	60	36.55	+23.45	67.0%	24	27	32	36	41	46	48
Cardiff Metropolitan	1163	43	37.21	+5.79	56.0%	23	26	32	38	40	49	55
Bala Town	1161	49	34.02	+14.98	77.0%	13	22	29	34	39	44	48
Cefn Druids	1153	44	27.97	+16.03	76.0%	12	19	24	28	31	37	47
Barry Town United	1146	53	23.89	+29.11	74.0%	7	14	20	23	28	35	42
Newtown	1137	40	34.15	+5.85	13.0%	21	24	31	34	38	44	50
Aberystwyth Town	1081	37	23.23	+13.77	44.0%	9	14	19	23	26	33	37
Llandudno	1080	36	27.97	+8.03	53.0%	13	17	23	28	32	37	41
Carmarthen Town	1047	29	24.15	+4.85	3.0%	8	13	19	24	29	33	38
Prestatyn Town	896	19	15.43	+3.57	51.0%	4	7	12	15	18	23	29

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+13.02%

Strong Edge

47.40%18.23%34.38%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 45.50 Elo pts.

175 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.44 goals

Neutral

-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.8

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

73%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.44/gm

Comfortable

00.190.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.12 * Lucky: 7.12 to 9.49 * Wild Swing: 9.49 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.86 * Off: 1.86 to 2.48 * Way Off: 2.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.78 points

Some Luck

05.9315

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.92

Off

01.554

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

82.00%

The New Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Carmarthen Town

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 125.70

1.90

Coin-Flip Parity

122.33

Interquartile Edge

71%

Slight Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

94%

Even

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Very Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Rare

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Very Even

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.60

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.62

Strong Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.85

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.00

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.069

Well Within Noise

00.1200.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	73.00%	13.00%	8.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	8.00%	13.00%	20.00%	14.00%	15.00%	14.00%	8.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	9.00%	37.00%	23.00%	11.00%	8.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	17.00%	8.00%	13.00%	16.00%	12.00%	13.00%	10.00%	4.00%	3.00%	4.00%	—
Cefn Druids	—	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	9.00%	14.00%	15.00%	19.00%	13.00%	13.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	7.00%	12.00%	21.00%	20.00%	15.00%	13.00%	4.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Barry Town United	—	1.00%	—	4.00%	7.00%	6.00%	3.00%	5.00%	25.00%	25.00%	20.00%	4.00%
Newtown	3.00%	5.00%	15.00%	15.00%	20.00%	13.00%	10.00%	8.00%	6.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	2.00%	—	5.00%	9.00%	16.00%	17.00%	22.00%	20.00%	9.00%
Llandudno	—	1.00%	2.00%	11.00%	7.00%	11.00%	16.00%	22.00%	10.00%	7.00%	10.00%	3.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	4.00%	17.00%	11.00%	18.00%	15.00%	18.00%	13.00%
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	9.00%	20.00%	68.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	99.22%	0.74%	0.04%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bangor City	0.41%	42.38%	30.71%	17.13%	7.28%	2.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	0.32%	38.59%	32.71%	17.96%	7.67%	2.75%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	0.04%	13.03%	22.44%	33.67%	21.02%	9.80%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cefn Druids	0.01%	3.51%	8.48%	18.43%	38.25%	31.32%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	1.75%	5.62%	12.81%	25.78%	54.04%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.68%	29.71%	25.65%	17.56%	1.38%	0.02%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	49.47%	27.69%	15.36%	7.07%	0.40%	0.01%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.54%	25.94%	30.54%	24.24%	1.71%	0.03%
Llandudno	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.26%	16.36%	27.17%	43.78%	5.31%	0.12%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	0.29%	1.25%	6.93%	77.56%	13.92%
Prestatyn Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.42%	13.64%	85.90%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Bala Town	99.00%	1.00%
Bangor City	99.00%	1.00%
Newtown	98.00%	2.00%
Cefn Druids	94.00%	6.00%
Llandudno	88.00%	12.00%
Barry Town United	79.00%	21.00%
Aberystwyth Town	75.00%	25.00%
Carmarthen Town	60.00%	40.00%
Prestatyn Town	8.00%	92.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Bangor City	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Cefn Druids	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Newtown	99.59%	0.41%
Barry Town United	98.60%	1.40%
Aberystwyth Town	98.26%	1.74%
Llandudno	94.57%	5.43%
Carmarthen Town	8.52%	91.48%
Prestatyn Town	0.46%	99.54%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2017-08-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	26.9	957	1258	13.64%	16.62%	69.74%	-1.46	-10.0	0
2017-08-11	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	26.9	1258	957	69.74%	16.62%	13.64%	+1.46	+10.0	3
2017-08-11	Newtown	W 3-0	34.2	1229	1214	48.73%	19.17%	32.10%	+0.35	+16.9	3
2017-08-11	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	34.2	1214	1229	32.10%	19.17%	48.73%	-0.35	-16.9	0
2017-08-11	The New Saints	W 5-2	49.2	1181	1347	25.06%	18.69%	56.25%	-0.69	+19.8	3
2017-08-11	@ Bangor City	L 2-5	49.2	1347	1181	56.25%	18.69%	25.06%	+0.69	-19.8	0
2017-08-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	35.0	1096	1178	35.12%	19.27%	45.60%	-0.21	-18.2	0
2017-08-12	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	35.0	1178	1096	45.60%	19.27%	35.12%	+0.21	+18.2	3
2017-08-12	Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	36.2	1101	1140	41.29%	19.34%	39.38%	+0.04	+20.0	3
2017-08-12	@ Llandudno	L 0-3	36.2	1140	1101	39.38%	19.34%	41.29%	-0.04	-20.0	0
2017-08-13	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.3	1058	1081	43.57%	19.31%	37.11%	+0.13	-0.2	1
2017-08-13	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	55.3	1081	1058	37.11%	19.31%	43.57%	-0.13	+0.2	1
2017-08-18	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	55.8	1197	1077	61.28%	18.13%	20.58%	+0.95	-1.7	1
2017-08-18	@ Newtown	D 1-1	55.8	1077	1197	20.58%	18.13%	61.28%	-0.95	+1.7	1
2017-08-18	Llandudno	L 0-2	38.9	1081	1121	41.05%	19.34%	39.62%	+0.03	-14.2	1
2017-08-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	38.9	1121	1081	39.62%	19.34%	41.05%	-0.03	+14.2	6
2017-08-19	Bala Town	W 3-0	32.2	1327	1246	57.03%	18.62%	24.35%	+0.73	+13.3	3
2017-08-19	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	32.2	1246	1327	24.35%	18.62%	57.03%	-0.73	-13.3	3
2017-08-19	Bangor City	W 3-1	42.7	1197	1201	46.13%	19.26%	34.61%	+0.24	+10.7	6
2017-08-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	42.7	1201	1197	34.61%	19.26%	46.13%	-0.24	-10.7	3
2017-08-19	Barry Town United	W 1-0	44.3	947	1058	31.47%	19.14%	49.39%	-0.37	+8.8	3
2017-08-19	@ Prestatyn Town	L 0-1	44.3	1058	947	49.39%	19.14%	31.47%	+0.37	-8.8	1
2017-08-19	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	37.3	1268	1120	64.11%	17.72%	18.17%	+1.10	+6.0	6
2017-08-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	37.3	1120	1268	18.17%	17.72%	64.11%	-1.10	-6.0	0
2017-08-25	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	36.2	1079	1067	48.43%	19.18%	32.39%	+0.33	+11.7	4
2017-08-25	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-2	36.2	1067	1079	32.39%	19.18%	48.43%	-0.33	-11.7	1
2017-08-25	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	32.3	1190	956	71.73%	16.12%	12.15%	+1.61	+2.5	6
2017-08-25	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	32.3	956	1190	12.15%	16.12%	71.73%	-1.61	-2.5	3
2017-08-25	The New Saints	L 0-1	33.3	1049	1340	14.25%	16.79%	68.96%	-1.41	-2.9	1
2017-08-25	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	33.3	1340	1049	68.96%	16.79%	14.25%	+1.41	+2.9	6
2017-08-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	44.5	1232	1207	50.07%	19.11%	30.82%	+0.40	+5.6	6
2017-08-26	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	44.5	1207	1232	30.82%	19.11%	50.07%	-0.40	-5.6	6
2017-08-26	Carmarthen Town	W 4-1	36.5	1195	1114	57.03%	18.62%	24.36%	+0.73	+11.2	4
2017-08-26	@ Newtown	L 1-4	36.5	1114	1195	24.36%	18.62%	57.03%	-0.73	-11.2	0
2017-08-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	45.6	1136	1274	28.16%	18.95%	52.89%	-0.53	+9.4	9
2017-08-26	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	45.6	1274	1136	52.89%	18.95%	28.16%	+0.53	-9.4	6
2017-09-07	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	61.6	1145	953	68.21%	16.96%	14.83%	+1.36	-1.7	10
2017-09-07	@ Llandudno	D 2-2	61.6	953	1145	14.83%	16.96%	68.21%	-1.36	+1.7	4
2017-09-08	Bala Town	W 1-0	39.2	1264	1238	50.22%	19.10%	30.68%	+0.41	+5.9	9
2017-09-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	39.2	1238	1264	30.68%	19.10%	50.22%	-0.41	-5.9	6
2017-09-08	Cefn Druids	W 4-0	26.1	1343	1091	73.05%	15.76%	11.19%	+1.71	+8.1	9
2017-09-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	26.1	1091	1343	11.19%	15.76%	73.05%	-1.71	-8.1	4
2017-09-09	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	34.6	1055	1202	27.12%	18.87%	54.00%	-0.58	-10.0	1
2017-09-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	34.6	1202	1055	54.00%	18.87%	27.12%	+0.58	+10.1	9
2017-09-09	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	36.5	1193	1103	58.02%	18.52%	23.47%	+0.78	+4.7	9
2017-09-09	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	36.5	1103	1193	23.47%	18.52%	58.02%	-0.78	-4.7	0
2017-09-09	Newtown	W 2-0	43.1	1046	1207	25.59%	18.74%	55.67%	-0.66	+18.5	4
2017-09-09	@ Barry Town United	L 0-2	43.1	1207	1046	55.67%	18.74%	25.59%	+0.66	-18.5	4
2017-09-15	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	61.3	1083	955	62.15%	18.01%	19.84%	+0.99	-1.3	5
2017-09-15	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	61.3	955	1083	19.84%	18.01%	62.15%	-0.99	+1.3	5
2017-09-15	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.6	1212	1351	28.00%	18.94%	53.07%	-0.54	+1.1	10
2017-09-15	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	51.6	1351	1212	53.07%	18.94%	28.00%	+0.54	-1.1	10
2017-09-16	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	28.7	1188	1045	63.70%	17.78%	18.52%	+1.08	+13.5	7
2017-09-16	@ Newtown	L 0-4	28.7	1045	1188	18.52%	17.78%	63.70%	-1.08	-13.4	1
2017-09-16	Barry Town United	W 1-0	36.8	1143	1064	56.75%	18.64%	24.61%	+0.71	+4.9	13
2017-09-16	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	36.8	1064	1143	24.61%	18.64%	56.75%	-0.71	-4.9	4
2017-09-16	Carmarthen Town	L 0-4	42.1	1232	1098	62.76%	17.93%	19.32%	+1.03	-39.3	6
2017-09-16	@ Bala Town	W 4-0	42.1	1098	1232	19.32%	17.93%	62.76%	-1.03	+39.3	3
2017-09-21	Bala Town	W 3-0	39.2	1081	1193	31.39%	19.14%	49.47%	-0.38	+24.2	8
2017-09-21	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-3	39.2	1193	1081	49.47%	19.14%	31.39%	+0.38	-24.2	6
2017-09-21	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	45.6	1059	1138	35.76%	19.29%	44.95%	-0.19	+13.3	7
2017-09-21	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	45.6	1138	1059	44.95%	19.29%	35.76%	+0.19	-13.3	3
2017-09-22	Llandudno	W 1-0	33.5	1350	1148	69.08%	16.77%	14.15%	+1.42	+2.9	13
2017-09-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	33.5	1148	1350	14.15%	16.77%	69.08%	-1.42	-2.9	13
2017-09-23	Bangor City	L 2-3	47.3	1031	1197	25.01%	18.68%	56.31%	-0.69	-4.4	1
2017-09-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	47.3	1197	1031	56.31%	18.68%	25.01%	+0.69	+4.4	12
2017-09-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	37.9	1270	1213	54.15%	18.86%	26.99%	+0.59	+5.3	12
2017-09-23	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	37.9	1213	1270	26.99%	18.86%	54.15%	-0.59	-5.3	10
2017-09-23	Newtown	D 0-0	51.3	956	1202	17.61%	17.61%	64.78%	-1.14	+2.2	6
2017-09-23	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	51.3	1202	956	64.78%	17.61%	17.61%	+1.14	-2.2	8
2017-09-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	43.2	1202	1275	36.39%	19.30%	44.31%	-0.16	+8.0	15
2017-09-26	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	43.2	1275	1202	44.31%	19.30%	36.39%	+0.16	-8.0	12
2017-09-29	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.8	1169	1027	63.54%	17.81%	18.65%	+1.07	-1.9	7
2017-09-29	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	55.8	1027	1169	18.65%	17.81%	63.54%	-1.07	+1.9	2
2017-09-30	Barry Town United	L 0-1	48.2	1210	1073	63.09%	17.88%	19.03%	+1.05	-11.0	15
2017-09-30	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	48.2	1073	1210	19.03%	17.88%	63.09%	-1.05	+11.0	10
2017-09-30	Cefn Druids	L 1-2	50.6	1145	1106	51.96%	19.01%	29.03%	+0.49	-8.7	13
2017-09-30	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	50.6	1106	1145	29.03%	19.01%	51.96%	-0.49	+8.7	11
2017-09-30	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	41.1	1199	1267	37.13%	19.31%	43.56%	-0.13	-7.0	8
2017-09-30	@ Newtown	W 1-0	41.1	1267	1199	43.56%	19.31%	37.13%	+0.13	+7.0	15
2017-09-30	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	37.4	1208	958	72.83%	15.82%	11.34%	+1.69	+2.2	13
2017-09-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	37.4	958	1208	11.34%	15.82%	72.83%	-1.69	-2.2	6
2017-09-30	The New Saints	L 0-5	29.4	1124	1353	18.98%	17.87%	63.15%	-1.05	-17.0	3
2017-09-30	@ Carmarthen Town	W 5-0	29.4	1353	1124	63.15%	17.87%	18.98%	+1.05	+17.0	16
2017-10-07	Bangor City	L 0-1	42.4	1167	1199	42.23%	19.33%	38.44%	+0.08	-7.7	7
2017-10-07	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	42.4	1199	1167	38.44%	19.33%	42.23%	-0.08	+7.7	18
2017-10-07	Barry Town United	D 0-0	50.8	1029	1084	38.97%	19.33%	41.69%	-0.05	+0.1	3
2017-10-07	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	50.8	1084	1029	41.69%	19.33%	38.97%	+0.05	-0.1	11
2017-10-07	Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	56.2	956	1107	26.66%	18.83%	54.51%	-0.60	+8.6	9
2017-10-07	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-3	56.2	1107	956	54.51%	18.83%	26.66%	+0.60	-8.6	3
2017-10-07	Newtown	D 0-0	50.9	1114	1192	35.78%	19.29%	44.93%	-0.19	+0.4	12
2017-10-07	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	50.9	1192	1114	44.93%	19.29%	35.78%	+0.19	-0.4	9
2017-10-08	Llandudno	W 1-0	37.1	1210	1137	56.10%	18.70%	25.20%	+0.68	+5.0	16
2017-10-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	37.1	1137	1210	25.20%	18.70%	56.10%	-0.68	-5.0	13
2017-10-10	The New Saints	D 2-2	62.2	1274	1370	33.42%	19.22%	47.36%	-0.29	+0.4	16
2017-10-10	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 2-2	62.2	1370	1274	47.36%	19.22%	33.42%	+0.29	-0.4	17
2017-10-12	Bala Town	L 1-3	47.5	1192	1159	51.10%	19.06%	29.85%	+0.45	-14.9	9
2017-10-12	@ Newtown	W 3-1	47.5	1159	1192	29.85%	19.06%	51.10%	-0.45	+14.9	10
2017-10-14	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	57.5	1132	1029	59.45%	18.36%	22.19%	+0.85	-9.3	13
2017-10-14	@ Llandudno	W 3-2	57.5	1029	1132	22.19%	18.36%	59.45%	-0.85	+9.3	6
2017-10-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	53.9	1207	1215	45.60%	19.27%	35.13%	+0.21	-7.4	18
2017-10-14	@ Bangor City	W 3-2	53.9	1215	1207	35.13%	19.27%	45.60%	-0.21	+7.4	19
2017-10-14	Cefn Druids	L 1-3	44.9	1084	1115	42.40%	19.33%	38.27%	+0.08	-12.7	11
2017-10-14	@ Barry Town United	W 3-1	44.9	1115	1084	38.27%	19.33%	42.40%	-0.08	+12.7	15
2017-10-14	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	42.1	1099	1275	23.96%	18.57%	57.47%	-0.75	-4.5	3
2017-10-14	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	42.1	1275	1099	57.47%	18.57%	23.96%	+0.75	+4.5	19
2017-10-14	Prestatyn Town	W 6-1	26.0	1370	965	82.29%	12.34%	5.37%	+2.58	+3.8	20
2017-10-14	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	26.0	965	1370	5.37%	12.34%	82.29%	-2.58	-3.8	9
2017-10-20	Bangor City	W 4-2	54.7	961	1199	18.19%	17.72%	64.09%	-1.10	+16.4	12
2017-10-20	@ Prestatyn Town	L 2-4	54.7	1199	961	64.09%	17.72%	18.19%	+1.10	-16.3	18
2017-10-20	The New Saints	L 1-2	37.7	1038	1373	11.62%	15.93%	72.44%	-1.66	-2.2	6
2017-10-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	37.7	1373	1038	72.44%	15.93%	11.62%	+1.66	+2.2	23
2017-10-21	Barry Town United	W 2-0	33.0	1174	1071	59.47%	18.36%	22.17%	+0.85	+8.4	13
2017-10-21	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	33.0	1071	1174	22.17%	18.36%	59.47%	-0.85	-8.4	11
2017-10-21	Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	50.9	1127	1094	51.14%	19.05%	29.81%	+0.45	-1.0	16
2017-10-21	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	50.9	1094	1127	29.81%	19.05%	51.14%	-0.45	+1.0	4
2017-10-21	Llandudno	D 1-1	56.1	1279	1122	65.04%	17.56%	17.40%	+1.16	-2.0	20
2017-10-21	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	56.1	1122	1279	17.40%	17.56%	65.04%	-1.16	+2.0	14
2017-10-21	Newtown	W 2-0	35.1	1222	1177	52.66%	18.96%	28.37%	+0.52	+10.5	22
2017-10-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	35.1	1177	1222	28.37%	18.96%	52.66%	-0.52	-10.5	9
2017-10-27	Cefn Druids	L 0-1	45.8	1183	1126	54.07%	18.87%	27.07%	+0.58	-9.6	18
2017-10-27	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	45.8	1126	1183	27.07%	18.87%	54.07%	-0.58	+9.6	19
2017-10-28	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	46.5	977	1036	38.46%	19.33%	42.21%	-0.08	-6.8	12
2017-10-28	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	46.5	1036	977	42.21%	19.33%	38.46%	+0.08	+6.8	9
2017-10-28	Bala Town	L 0-1	40.0	1095	1182	34.55%	19.26%	46.19%	-0.24	-6.6	4
2017-10-28	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	40.0	1182	1095	46.19%	19.26%	34.55%	+0.24	+6.6	16
2017-10-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	41.1	1376	1233	63.66%	17.79%	18.55%	+1.08	+3.6	26
2017-10-28	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	41.1	1233	1376	18.55%	17.79%	63.66%	-1.08	-3.5	22
2017-10-28	Newtown	W 2-1	47.1	1124	1167	40.78%	19.34%	39.88%	+0.02	+7.0	17
2017-10-28	@ Llandudno	L 1-2	47.1	1167	1124	39.88%	19.34%	40.78%	-0.02	-7.0	9
2017-10-29	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	35.4	1063	1277	20.22%	18.08%	61.70%	-0.97	-4.1	11
2017-10-29	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	35.4	1277	1063	61.70%	18.08%	20.22%	+0.97	+4.1	23
2017-11-03	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	43.7	1043	1136	33.74%	19.23%	47.03%	-0.27	+8.5	12
2017-11-03	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	43.7	1136	1043	47.03%	19.23%	33.74%	+0.27	-8.5	19
2017-11-03	Llandudno	W 2-1	43.1	1189	1131	54.21%	18.86%	26.94%	+0.59	+5.0	19
2017-11-03	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	43.1	1131	1189	26.94%	18.86%	54.21%	-0.59	-5.0	17
2017-11-03	Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	36.2	1281	971	77.04%	14.49%	8.47%	+2.04	+1.6	26
2017-11-03	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	36.2	971	1281	8.47%	14.49%	77.04%	-2.04	-1.6	12
2017-11-04	Bangor City	L 1-2	48.6	1160	1173	44.83%	19.29%	35.87%	+0.18	-7.7	9
2017-11-04	@ Newtown	W 2-1	48.6	1173	1160	35.87%	19.29%	44.83%	-0.18	+7.7	21
2017-11-04	Barry Town United	L 0-1	51.6	1379	1059	77.65%	14.27%	8.08%	+2.10	-13.3	26
2017-11-04	@ The New Saints	W 1-0	51.6	1059	1379	8.08%	14.27%	77.65%	-2.10	+13.3	14
2017-11-04	Carmarthen Town	W 5-0	29.0	1229	1089	63.43%	17.82%	18.74%	+1.07	+16.8	25
2017-11-04	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-5	29.0	1089	1229	18.74%	17.82%	63.43%	-1.07	-16.8	4
2017-11-07	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	45.5	1181	1051	62.34%	17.99%	19.68%	+1.00	+3.6	24
2017-11-07	@ Bangor City	L 2-3	45.5	1051	1181	19.68%	17.99%	62.34%	-1.00	-3.6	12
2017-11-10	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.7	1194	1283	34.28%	19.25%	46.47%	-0.25	+0.5	20
2017-11-10	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	55.7	1283	1194	46.47%	19.25%	34.28%	+0.25	-0.5	27
2017-11-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	30.5	969	1246	15.25%	17.06%	67.69%	-1.33	-5.9	12
2017-11-11	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	30.5	1246	969	67.69%	17.06%	15.25%	+1.33	+5.9	28
2017-11-11	Llandudno	W 2-0	39.0	1072	1126	39.07%	19.33%	41.60%	-0.05	+14.4	17
2017-11-11	@ Barry Town United	L 0-2	39.0	1126	1072	41.60%	19.33%	39.07%	+0.05	-14.4	17
2017-11-11	Newtown	L 0-2	37.2	1072	1152	35.48%	19.28%	45.23%	-0.20	-12.6	4
2017-11-11	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	37.2	1152	1072	45.23%	19.28%	35.48%	+0.20	+12.6	12
2017-11-17	Bala Town	L 1-2	43.1	1048	1194	27.17%	18.87%	53.96%	-0.58	-5.0	12
2017-11-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	43.1	1194	1048	53.96%	18.87%	27.17%	+0.58	+5.0	23
2017-11-17	Bangor City	L 0-2	44.3	1282	1185	58.92%	18.42%	22.66%	+0.82	-19.5	27
2017-11-17	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	44.3	1185	1282	22.66%	18.42%	58.92%	-0.82	+19.5	27
2017-11-17	The New Saints	L 0-1	34.5	1112	1366	16.92%	17.46%	65.61%	-1.19	-3.5	17
2017-11-17	@ Llandudno	W 1-0	34.5	1366	1112	65.61%	17.46%	16.92%	+1.19	+3.4	29
2017-11-18	Barry Town United	W 3-0	31.6	1165	1086	56.69%	18.65%	24.66%	+0.71	+13.4	15
2017-11-18	@ Newtown	L 0-3	31.6	1086	1165	24.66%	18.65%	56.69%	-0.71	-13.4	17
2017-11-18	Prestatyn Town	L 0-3	41.7	1059	963	58.71%	18.44%	22.85%	+0.81	-28.3	4
2017-11-18	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	41.7	963	1059	22.85%	18.44%	58.71%	-0.81	+28.3	15
2017-11-19	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	55.9	1252	1128	61.76%	18.07%	20.17%	+0.97	-1.8	29
2017-11-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	55.9	1128	1252	20.17%	18.07%	61.76%	-0.97	+1.7	20
2017-11-24	Bala Town	W 5-0	33.9	1204	1199	47.38%	19.22%	33.40%	+0.29	+28.1	30
2017-11-24	@ Bangor City	L 0-5	33.9	1199	1204	33.40%	19.22%	47.38%	-0.29	-28.1	23
2017-11-24	Llandudno	L 1-3	41.3	991	1108	30.71%	19.10%	50.19%	-0.41	-9.7	15
2017-11-24	@ Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	41.3	1108	991	50.19%	19.10%	30.71%	+0.41	+9.7	20
2017-11-24	Newtown	W 3-0	40.1	1043	1178	28.47%	18.97%	52.56%	-0.51	+25.5	15
2017-11-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	40.1	1178	1043	52.56%	18.97%	28.47%	+0.51	-25.5	15
2017-11-25	Barry Town United	W 2-1	43.0	1129	1073	54.07%	18.87%	27.07%	+0.58	+5.0	23
2017-11-25	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-2	43.0	1073	1129	27.07%	18.87%	54.07%	-0.58	-5.0	17
2017-11-25	Carmarthen Town	W 5-2	32.8	1369	1031	78.72%	13.86%	7.42%	+2.20	+2.9	32
2017-11-25	@ The New Saints	L 2-5	32.8	1031	1369	7.42%	13.86%	78.72%	-2.20	-3.0	4
2017-11-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	51.3	1250	1263	44.95%	19.29%	35.76%	+0.19	-0.4	30
2017-11-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	51.3	1263	1250	35.76%	19.29%	44.95%	-0.19	+0.4	28
2017-11-28	The New Saints	L 1-3	37.6	1134	1372	18.21%	17.73%	64.06%	-1.10	-6.0	23
2017-11-28	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	37.6	1372	1134	64.06%	17.73%	18.21%	+1.10	+6.0	35
2017-12-08	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-1	31.2	1263	1068	68.50%	16.90%	14.61%	+1.38	+8.9	31
2017-12-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-5	31.2	1068	1263	14.61%	16.90%	68.50%	-1.38	-8.9	15
2017-12-09	Bangor City	D 1-1	55.6	1068	1232	25.19%	18.70%	56.11%	-0.68	+1.3	18
2017-12-09	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	55.6	1232	1068	56.11%	18.70%	25.19%	+0.68	-1.3	31
2017-12-09	Llandudno	D 0-0	50.8	1028	1118	34.15%	19.25%	46.60%	-0.26	+0.5	5
2017-12-09	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	50.8	1118	1028	46.60%	19.25%	34.15%	+0.26	-0.5	21
2017-12-14	Llandudno	W 2-1	43.9	1152	1118	51.36%	19.04%	29.59%	+0.46	+5.4	18
2017-12-14	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.9	1118	1152	29.59%	19.04%	51.36%	-0.46	-5.4	21
2017-12-15	Barry Town United	L 1-2	47.3	1029	1069	41.04%	19.34%	39.62%	+0.03	-7.1	5
2017-12-15	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	47.3	1069	1029	39.62%	19.34%	41.04%	-0.03	+7.1	21
2017-12-16	Bala Town	L 1-2	52.1	1250	1171	56.70%	18.65%	24.65%	+0.71	-9.4	30
2017-12-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	52.1	1171	1250	24.65%	18.65%	56.70%	-0.71	+9.4	26
2017-12-16	Bangor City	L 0-2	36.4	1128	1231	32.51%	19.19%	48.30%	-0.33	-11.8	23
2017-12-16	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	36.4	1231	1128	48.30%	19.19%	32.51%	+0.33	+11.8	34
2017-12-16	Prestatyn Town	W 7-1	33.2	1059	982	56.60%	18.66%	24.74%	+0.71	+21.2	18
2017-12-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-7	33.2	982	1059	24.74%	18.66%	56.60%	-0.71	-21.2	15
2017-12-19	Cefn Druids	L 1-2	42.7	961	1117	26.11%	18.79%	55.11%	-0.63	-4.9	15
2017-12-19	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-1	42.7	1117	961	55.11%	18.79%	26.11%	+0.63	+4.9	26
2017-12-19	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-0	32.0	1378	1272	59.83%	18.32%	21.86%	+0.87	+12.0	38
2017-12-19	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	32.0	1272	1378	21.86%	18.32%	59.83%	-0.87	-12.0	31
2017-12-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	51.0	1112	1240	29.33%	19.03%	51.64%	-0.47	+1.0	22
2017-12-20	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	51.0	1240	1112	51.64%	19.03%	29.33%	+0.47	-1.0	31
2017-12-22	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	25.0	1390	1081	76.98%	14.51%	8.51%	+2.04	+6.1	41
2017-12-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	25.0	1081	1390	8.51%	14.51%	76.98%	-2.04	-6.1	18
2017-12-22	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	43.0	1181	1121	54.40%	18.84%	26.75%	+0.60	+5.0	29
2017-12-22	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	43.0	1121	1181	26.75%	18.84%	54.40%	-0.60	-5.0	26
2017-12-22	Newtown	W 4-0	30.2	1260	1158	59.41%	18.36%	22.22%	+0.85	+16.0	34
2017-12-22	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	30.2	1158	1260	22.22%	18.36%	59.41%	-0.85	-16.0	18
2017-12-23	Bangor City	D 0-0	51.3	1021	1243	19.63%	17.98%	62.39%	-1.01	+2.0	6
2017-12-23	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	51.3	1243	1021	62.39%	17.98%	19.63%	+1.01	-2.0	35
2017-12-23	Prestatyn Town	W 4-0	29.4	1076	956	61.38%	18.12%	20.50%	+0.95	+14.8	24
2017-12-23	@ Barry Town United	L 0-4	29.4	956	1076	20.50%	18.12%	61.38%	-0.95	-14.8	15
2017-12-26	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	41.9	1023	1074	39.53%	19.34%	41.13%	-0.03	+7.6	9
2017-12-26	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	41.9	1074	1023	41.13%	19.34%	39.53%	+0.03	-7.6	18
2017-12-26	Bala Town	L 0-2	31.3	941	1186	17.66%	17.62%	64.72%	-1.14	-6.8	15
2017-12-26	@ Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	31.3	1186	941	64.72%	17.62%	17.66%	+1.14	+6.8	32
2017-12-26	Bangor City	D 0-0	51.0	1113	1241	29.40%	19.03%	51.57%	-0.47	+1.0	23
2017-12-26	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	51.0	1241	1113	51.57%	19.03%	29.40%	+0.47	-1.0	36
2017-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	45.8	1091	1239	26.98%	18.86%	54.16%	-0.59	+9.6	27
2017-12-26	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	45.8	1239	1091	54.16%	18.86%	26.98%	+0.59	-9.6	31
2017-12-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	37.3	1116	1276	25.70%	18.75%	55.55%	-0.65	-5.1	26
2017-12-26	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	37.3	1276	1116	55.55%	18.75%	25.70%	+0.65	+5.1	37
2017-12-26	The New Saints	L 2-3	45.1	1142	1396	16.89%	17.46%	65.65%	-1.20	-3.1	18
2017-12-26	@ Newtown	W 3-2	45.1	1396	1142	65.65%	17.46%	16.89%	+1.20	+3.1	44
2017-12-29	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	56.1	1281	1111	66.25%	17.35%	16.41%	+1.23	-2.1	38
2017-12-29	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	56.1	1111	1281	16.41%	17.35%	66.25%	-1.23	+2.1	27
2017-12-30	Newtown	L 2-4	57.5	1400	1139	73.66%	15.59%	10.75%	+1.75	-18.6	44
2017-12-30	@ The New Saints	W 4-2	57.5	1139	1400	10.75%	15.59%	73.66%	-1.75	+18.6	21
2017-12-30	Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	31.8	1192	934	73.49%	15.64%	10.87%	+1.74	+2.2	35
2017-12-30	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	31.8	934	1192	10.87%	15.64%	73.49%	-1.74	-2.2	15
2017-12-31	Barry Town United	W 3-0	30.0	1230	1101	62.26%	18.00%	19.74%	+1.00	+10.9	34
2017-12-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	30.0	1101	1230	19.74%	18.00%	62.26%	-1.00	-10.9	27
2018-01-01	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	50.4	1067	1031	51.49%	19.04%	29.48%	+0.47	-8.6	18
2018-01-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	50.4	1031	1067	29.48%	19.04%	51.49%	-0.47	+8.6	12
2018-01-01	Llandudno	L 0-1	47.9	1240	1114	61.91%	18.05%	20.04%	+0.98	-10.9	36
2018-01-01	@ Bangor City	W 1-0	47.9	1114	1240	20.04%	18.05%	61.91%	-0.98	+10.8	26
2018-01-02	The New Saints	L 0-3	31.8	1195	1381	22.91%	18.45%	58.64%	-0.81	-12.5	35
2018-01-02	@ Bala Town	W 3-0	31.8	1381	1195	58.64%	18.45%	22.91%	+0.81	+12.5	47
2018-01-05	Newtown	W 3-1	39.8	1229	1157	55.87%	18.72%	25.41%	+0.67	+8.2	39
2018-01-05	@ Bangor City	L 1-3	39.8	1157	1229	25.41%	18.72%	55.87%	-0.67	-8.2	21
2018-01-05	The New Saints	L 1-4	29.5	932	1393	6.34%	13.13%	80.53%	-2.38	-2.9	15
2018-01-05	@ Prestatyn Town	W 4-1	29.5	1393	932	80.53%	13.13%	6.34%	+2.38	+2.9	50
2018-01-06	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	56.1	1241	1058	67.37%	17.13%	15.50%	+1.30	-2.2	35
2018-01-06	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	56.1	1058	1241	15.50%	17.13%	67.37%	-1.30	+2.2	19
2018-01-06	Bala Town	D 1-1	55.4	1125	1182	38.68%	19.33%	41.99%	-0.07	+0.1	27
2018-01-06	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	55.4	1182	1125	41.99%	19.33%	38.68%	+0.07	-0.1	36
2018-01-06	Barry Town United	W 3-0	28.3	1279	1090	68.01%	17.00%	15.00%	+1.35	+8.4	41
2018-01-06	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	28.3	1090	1279	15.00%	17.00%	68.01%	-1.35	-8.4	27
2018-01-06	Cefn Druids	L 0-1	40.5	1040	1113	36.34%	19.30%	44.36%	-0.16	-6.8	12
2018-01-06	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	40.5	1113	1040	44.36%	19.30%	36.34%	+0.16	+6.8	30
2018-01-09	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	54.1	1149	1238	34.28%	19.25%	46.47%	-0.25	+7.5	24
2018-01-09	@ Newtown	L 2-3	54.1	1238	1149	46.47%	19.25%	34.28%	+0.25	-7.5	35
2018-01-13	Bala Town	L 0-1	39.4	1081	1182	32.77%	19.20%	48.03%	-0.32	-6.3	27
2018-01-13	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	39.4	1182	1081	48.03%	19.20%	32.77%	+0.32	+6.3	39
2018-01-13	Bangor City	W 2-1	40.8	1396	1237	65.26%	17.53%	17.22%	+1.17	+3.3	53
2018-01-13	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	40.8	1237	1396	17.22%	17.53%	65.26%	-1.17	-3.3	39
2018-01-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	32.8	1033	1231	21.76%	18.30%	59.94%	-0.87	-8.2	12
2018-01-13	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-0	32.8	1231	1033	59.94%	18.30%	21.76%	+0.87	+8.2	38
2018-01-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-2	54.6	1060	1287	19.13%	17.89%	62.98%	-1.04	+16.1	22
2018-01-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	54.6	1287	1060	62.98%	17.89%	19.13%	+1.04	-16.1	41
2018-01-13	Llandudno	D 0-0	50.9	1120	1125	46.08%	19.26%	34.66%	+0.23	-0.5	31
2018-01-13	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	50.9	1125	1120	34.66%	19.26%	46.08%	-0.23	+0.5	28
2018-01-13	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	27.2	1157	929	71.18%	16.27%	12.55%	+1.56	+7.0	27
2018-01-13	@ Newtown	L 0-3	27.2	929	1157	12.55%	16.27%	71.18%	-1.56	-7.0	15

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2018-02-01	Bala Town	D 1-1	55.9	1271	1188	57.26%	18.59%	24.15%	+0.74	-1.4	1
2018-02-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.9	1188	1271	24.15%	18.59%	57.26%	-0.74	+1.4	1
2018-02-02	The New Saints	D 2-2	62.1	1120	1400	15.04%	17.01%	67.95%	-1.34	+1.7	1
2018-02-02	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	62.1	1400	1120	67.95%	17.01%	15.04%	+1.34	-1.7	1
2018-02-03	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	42.4	1075	1077	46.51%	19.25%	34.24%	+0.25	+10.6	3
2018-02-03	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	42.4	1077	1075	34.24%	19.25%	46.51%	-0.25	-10.6	0
2018-02-03	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	35.1	1234	1239	46.00%	19.26%	34.74%	+0.23	+18.0	3
2018-02-03	@ Bangor City	L 0-3	35.1	1239	1234	34.74%	19.26%	46.00%	-0.23	-18.0	0
2018-02-03	Newtown	L 3-4	55.1	1126	1164	41.38%	19.34%	39.28%	+0.04	-6.6	0
2018-02-03	@ Llandudno	W 4-3	55.1	1164	1126	39.28%	19.34%	41.38%	-0.04	+6.6	3
2018-02-03	Prestatyn Town	W 3-1	38.5	1025	922	59.44%	18.36%	22.20%	+0.85	+7.3	3
2018-02-03	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	38.5	922	1025	22.20%	18.36%	59.44%	-0.85	-7.3	0
2018-02-08	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	37.2	1190	1121	55.47%	18.76%	25.77%	+0.65	+5.1	4
2018-02-08	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	37.2	1121	1190	25.77%	18.76%	55.47%	-0.65	-5.1	1
2018-02-09	Bangor City	W 3-0	30.7	1398	1252	63.99%	17.74%	18.28%	+1.10	+10.2	4
2018-02-09	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	30.7	1252	1398	18.28%	17.74%	63.99%	-1.10	-10.2	3
2018-02-09	Llandudno	W 3-1	44.6	1066	1119	39.26%	19.34%	41.41%	-0.04	+12.4	3
2018-02-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	44.6	1119	1066	41.41%	19.34%	39.26%	+0.04	-12.4	0
2018-02-10	Newtown	W 3-2	55.8	1032	1170	28.09%	18.94%	52.96%	-0.53	+8.4	6
2018-02-10	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	55.8	1170	1032	52.96%	18.94%	28.09%	+0.53	-8.4	3
2018-02-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	38.9	1221	1270	39.83%	19.34%	40.83%	-0.02	-13.9	0
2018-02-11	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	38.9	1270	1221	40.83%	19.34%	39.83%	+0.02	+13.9	4
2018-02-16	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	42.1	1242	1284	40.79%	19.34%	39.87%	+0.02	+7.4	6
2018-02-16	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	42.1	1284	1242	39.87%	19.34%	40.79%	-0.02	-7.4	4
2018-02-16	Prestatyn Town	D 1-1	55.9	1078	915	65.66%	17.45%	16.88%	+1.20	-2.1	4
2018-02-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.9	915	1078	16.88%	17.45%	65.66%	-1.20	+2.1	1
2018-02-17	Barry Town United	L 1-2	51.8	1162	1086	56.45%	18.67%	24.88%	+0.70	-9.4	3
2018-02-17	@ Newtown	W 2-1	51.8	1086	1162	24.88%	18.67%	56.45%	-0.70	+9.4	6
2018-02-17	Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	47.6	1106	1040	55.26%	18.77%	25.97%	+0.64	+4.6	3
2018-02-17	@ Llandudno	L 2-3	47.6	1040	1106	25.97%	18.77%	55.26%	-0.64	-4.6	6
2018-02-17	Cefn Druids	L 1-3	49.4	1207	1116	58.12%	18.51%	23.37%	+0.78	-16.7	0
2018-02-17	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	49.4	1116	1207	23.37%	18.51%	58.12%	-0.78	+16.7	4
2018-02-23	Bangor City	L 0-2	35.9	1133	1249	30.83%	19.11%	50.06%	-0.40	-11.2	4
2018-02-23	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	35.9	1249	1133	50.06%	19.11%	30.83%	+0.40	+11.2	9
2018-02-24	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	39.8	1195	1190	47.29%	19.22%	33.48%	+0.28	+6.4	7
2018-02-24	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	39.8	1190	1195	33.48%	19.22%	47.29%	-0.28	-6.4	0
2018-02-24	Llandudno	W 4-1	40.2	1095	1111	44.51%	19.30%	36.19%	+0.17	+15.8	9
2018-02-24	@ Barry Town United	L 1-4	40.2	1111	1095	36.19%	19.30%	44.51%	-0.17	-15.7	3
2018-02-24	The New Saints	L 0-1	39.9	1277	1408	28.92%	19.00%	52.08%	-0.49	-5.6	4
2018-02-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	39.9	1408	1277	52.08%	19.00%	28.92%	+0.49	+5.6	7
2018-02-25	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	64.8	1036	1076	41.02%	19.34%	39.64%	+0.03	-0.0	7
2018-02-25	@ Carmarthen Town	D 3-3	64.8	1076	1036	39.64%	19.34%	41.02%	-0.03	+0.0	5
2018-02-25	Newtown	L 0-1	34.6	917	1153	18.39%	17.76%	63.85%	-1.09	-3.7	1
2018-02-25	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	34.6	1153	917	63.85%	17.76%	18.39%	+1.09	+3.7	6
2018-03-09	Bala Town	L 1-2	51.5	1260	1201	54.41%	18.84%	26.75%	+0.60	-9.1	9
2018-03-09	@ Bangor City	W 2-1	51.5	1201	1260	26.75%	18.84%	54.41%	-0.60	+9.1	10
2018-03-09	Barry Town United	L 0-1	40.4	1036	1111	36.16%	19.30%	44.54%	-0.17	-6.8	7
2018-03-09	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	40.4	1111	1036	44.54%	19.30%	36.16%	+0.17	+6.8	12
2018-03-09	Prestatyn Town	D 2-2	61.6	1095	913	67.37%	17.13%	15.50%	+1.30	-1.6	4
2018-03-09	@ Llandudno	D 2-2	61.6	913	1095	15.50%	17.13%	67.37%	-1.30	+1.6	2
2018-03-10	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	46.5	1156	1076	56.88%	18.63%	24.49%	+0.72	-10.0	6
2018-03-10	@ Newtown	W 1-0	46.5	1076	1156	24.49%	18.63%	56.88%	-0.72	+10.0	8
2018-03-10	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	40.1	1271	1122	64.27%	17.69%	18.04%	+1.11	+3.4	7
2018-03-10	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.1	1122	1271	18.04%	17.69%	64.27%	-1.11	-3.4	4
2018-03-10	The New Saints	D 1-1	56.7	1184	1414	18.90%	17.85%	63.25%	-1.06	+1.9	1
2018-03-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	56.7	1414	1184	63.25%	17.85%	18.90%	+1.06	-1.9	8
2018-03-16	Bala Town	W 3-0	28.9	1412	1210	69.07%	16.77%	14.16%	+1.42	+7.9	11
2018-03-16	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	28.9	1210	1412	14.16%	16.77%	69.07%	-1.42	-7.9	10
2018-03-23	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	40.9	1202	1274	36.57%	19.31%	44.13%	-0.15	-6.9	10
2018-03-23	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	40.9	1274	1202	44.13%	19.31%	36.57%	+0.15	+6.9	10
2018-03-24	Barry Town United	L 0-2	39.3	1086	1118	42.37%	19.33%	38.30%	+0.08	-14.6	8
2018-03-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	39.3	1118	1086	38.30%	19.33%	42.37%	-0.08	+14.6	15
2018-03-24	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	38.8	915	1029	31.06%	19.12%	49.81%	-0.39	-6.0	2
2018-03-24	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	38.8	1029	915	49.81%	19.12%	31.06%	+0.39	+6.0	10
2018-03-24	Llandudno	W 3-2	48.2	1146	1094	53.59%	18.90%	27.51%	+0.56	+4.8	9
2018-03-24	@ Newtown	L 2-3	48.2	1094	1146	27.51%	18.90%	53.59%	-0.56	-4.8	4
2018-03-25	Bangor City	L 1-2	46.5	1186	1251	37.53%	19.32%	43.15%	-0.11	-6.6	1
2018-03-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	46.5	1251	1186	43.15%	19.32%	37.53%	+0.11	+6.6	12
2018-03-25	Cefn Druids	W 5-1	29.3	1420	1118	76.44%	14.70%	8.86%	+1.99	+5.3	14
2018-03-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	29.3	1118	1420	8.86%	14.70%	76.44%	-1.99	-5.3	4
2018-03-30	Bala Town	W 3-1	45.9	1113	1195	35.21%	19.28%	45.52%	-0.21	+13.4	7
2018-03-30	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	45.9	1195	1113	45.52%	19.28%	35.21%	+0.21	-13.4	10
2018-03-31	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	39.1	1089	1072	49.03%	19.16%	31.81%	+0.36	+6.1	7
2018-03-31	@ Llandudno	L 0-1	39.1	1072	1089	31.81%	19.16%	49.03%	-0.36	-6.1	8
2018-03-31	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	31.1	1281	1179	59.37%	18.37%	22.26%	+0.84	+12.2	13
2018-03-31	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	31.1	1179	1281	22.26%	18.37%	59.37%	-0.84	-12.2	1
2018-03-31	Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	57.9	1151	1035	60.93%	18.18%	20.89%	+0.93	-9.6	9
2018-03-31	@ Newtown	W 3-2	57.9	1035	1151	20.89%	18.18%	60.93%	-0.93	+9.5	13
2018-03-31	Prestatyn Town	W 2-0	29.5	1132	909	70.84%	16.35%	12.81%	+1.54	+4.9	18
2018-03-31	@ Barry Town United	L 0-2	29.5	909	1132	12.81%	16.35%	70.84%	-1.54	-4.9	2
2018-03-31	The New Saints	W 1-0	48.0	1258	1425	24.88%	18.67%	56.45%	-0.70	+10.0	15
2018-03-31	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	48.0	1425	1258	56.45%	18.67%	24.88%	+0.70	-10.0	14
2018-04-13	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	37.0	904	1066	25.47%	18.73%	55.80%	-0.67	-5.0	2
2018-04-13	@ Prestatyn Town	W 1-0	37.0	1066	904	55.80%	18.73%	25.47%	+0.67	+5.1	11
2018-04-13	The New Saints	L 1-4	35.4	1182	1415	18.60%	17.80%	63.61%	-1.08	-8.7	10
2018-04-13	@ Bala Town	W 4-1	35.4	1415	1182	63.61%	17.80%	18.60%	+1.08	+8.7	17
2018-04-14	Bangor City	W 1-0	39.4	1293	1268	50.16%	19.11%	30.73%	+0.41	+5.9	16
2018-04-14	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	39.4	1268	1293	30.73%	19.11%	50.16%	-0.41	-5.9	15
2018-04-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	44.1	1127	1167	41.04%	19.34%	39.62%	+0.03	+12.0	10
2018-04-14	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	44.1	1167	1127	39.62%	19.34%	41.04%	-0.03	-12.0	1
2018-04-14	Llandudno	W 3-2	52.3	1044	1095	39.59%	19.34%	41.07%	-0.03	+6.8	16
2018-04-14	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	52.3	1095	1044	41.07%	19.34%	39.59%	+0.03	-6.8	7
2018-04-15	Newtown	D 1-1	55.4	1137	1142	46.12%	19.26%	34.62%	+0.24	-0.4	19
2018-04-15	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	55.4	1142	1137	34.62%	19.26%	46.12%	-0.24	+0.5	10
2018-04-20	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	55.4	1071	1051	49.36%	19.14%	31.50%	+0.37	-0.7	12
2018-04-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.4	1051	1071	31.50%	19.14%	49.36%	-0.37	+0.7	17
2018-04-20	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	40.0	1424	1299	61.79%	18.06%	20.15%	+0.97	+6.6	20
2018-04-20	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	40.0	1299	1424	20.15%	18.06%	61.79%	-0.97	-6.6	16
2018-04-21	Bala Town	W 4-3	53.7	1155	1173	44.23%	19.30%	36.47%	+0.16	+6.0	4
2018-04-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 3-4	53.7	1173	1155	36.47%	19.30%	44.23%	-0.16	-6.0	10
2018-04-21	Barry Town United	L 2-3	52.0	1088	1137	39.91%	19.34%	40.75%	-0.02	-6.6	7
2018-04-21	@ Llandudno	W 3-2	52.0	1137	1088	40.75%	19.34%	39.91%	+0.02	+6.6	22
2018-04-21	Prestatyn Town	W 3-0	26.9	1142	899	72.38%	15.95%	11.67%	+1.65	+6.5	13
2018-04-21	@ Newtown	L 0-3	26.9	899	1142	11.67%	15.95%	72.38%	-1.65	-6.5	2
2018-04-22	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	35.5	1262	1139	61.67%	18.08%	20.25%	+0.97	+4.1	18
2018-04-22	@ Bangor City	L 0-1	35.5	1139	1262	20.25%	18.08%	61.67%	-0.97	-4.1	10
2018-04-24	Barry Town United	D 0-0	51.3	892	1143	17.16%	17.51%	65.32%	-1.18	+2.3	3
2018-04-24	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	51.3	1143	892	65.32%	17.51%	17.16%	+1.18	-2.3	23
2018-04-27	Bangor City	L 1-2	45.1	1167	1266	33.01%	19.21%	47.78%	-0.31	-6.0	10
2018-04-27	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	45.1	1266	1167	47.78%	19.21%	33.01%	+0.31	+5.9	21
2018-04-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 3-3	66.8	1431	1161	74.29%	15.40%	10.31%	+1.80	-1.7	21
2018-04-27	@ The New Saints	D 3-3	66.8	1161	1431	10.31%	15.40%	74.29%	-1.80	+1.7	5
2018-04-27	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	36.4	1141	1052	57.94%	18.52%	23.53%	+0.77	+4.7	26
2018-04-27	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	36.4	1052	1141	23.53%	18.52%	57.94%	-0.77	-4.7	17
2018-04-27	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	43.2	1134	1293	25.85%	18.76%	55.39%	-0.65	+18.5	13
2018-04-27	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-2	43.2	1293	1134	55.39%	18.76%	25.85%	+0.65	-18.5	16
2018-04-27	Llandudno	D 0-0	51.0	895	1082	22.84%	18.44%	58.72%	-0.81	+1.7	4
2018-04-27	@ Prestatyn Town	D 0-0	51.0	1082	895	58.72%	18.44%	22.84%	+0.81	-1.7	8
2018-04-27	Newtown	W 5-3	51.2	1070	1149	35.70%	19.29%	45.02%	-0.19	+11.3	15
2018-04-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 3-5	51.2	1149	1070	45.02%	19.29%	35.70%	+0.19	-11.2	13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2017-11-04	8.08%	Barry Town United	1059	1	@ The New Saints	1379	0
2	2017-12-30	10.75%	Newtown	1139	4	@ The New Saints	1400	2
3	2017-10-20	18.19%	@ Prestatyn Town	961	4	Bangor City	1199	2
4	2017-09-30	19.03%	Barry Town United	1073	1	@ Bangor City	1210	0
5	2018-01-13	19.13%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1060	4	Connah's Quay Nomads	1287	2
6	2017-09-16	19.32%	Carmarthen Town	1098	4	@ Bala Town	1232	0
7	2018-01-01	20.04%	Llandudno	1114	1	@ Bangor City	1240	0
8	2018-03-31	20.89%	Carmarthen Town	1035	3	@ Newtown	1151	2
9	2017-10-14	22.19%	Aberystwyth Town	1029	3	@ Llandudno	1132	2
10	2017-11-17	22.66%	Bangor City	1185	2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1282	0
11	2017-11-18	22.85%	Prestatyn Town	963	3	@ Carmarthen Town	1059	0
12	2018-02-17	23.37%	Cefn Druids	1116	3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1207	1
13	2018-03-10	24.49%	Aberystwyth Town	1076	1	@ Newtown	1156	0
14	2017-12-16	24.65%	Bala Town	1171	2	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1250	1
15	2018-02-17	24.88%	Barry Town United	1086	2	@ Newtown	1162	1
16	2018-03-31	24.88%	@ Bangor City	1258	1	The New Saints	1425	0
17	2017-08-11	25.06%	@ Bangor City	1181	5	The New Saints	1347	2
18	2017-09-09	25.59%	@ Barry Town United	1046	2	Newtown	1207	0
19	2018-04-27	25.85%	@ Cefn Druids	1134	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1293	0
20	2017-10-07	26.66%	@ Prestatyn Town	956	3	Carmarthen Town	1107	2
21	2018-03-09	26.75%	Bala Town	1201	2	@ Bangor City	1260	1
22	2017-12-26	26.98%	@ Barry Town United	1091	1	Cardiff Metropolitan	1239	0
23	2017-10-27	27.07%	Cefn Druids	1126	1	@ Bangor City	1183	0
24	2018-02-10	28.09%	@ Carmarthen Town	1032	3	Newtown	1170	2
25	2017-08-26	28.16%	@ Llandudno	1136	1	Connah's Quay Nomads	1274	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2017-09-16	39.29	Carmarthen Town	4	1098	19.32%	@ Bala Town	0	1232	62.76%	17.93%
2	2017-11-18	28.27	Prestatyn Town	3	963	22.85%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1059	58.71%	18.44%
3	2017-11-24	28.12	@ Bangor City	5	1204	47.38%	Bala Town	0	1199	33.40%	19.22%
4	2017-11-24	25.55	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	1043	28.47%	Newtown	0	1178	52.56%	18.97%
5	2017-09-21	24.22	@ Cefn Druids	3	1081	31.39%	Bala Town	0	1193	49.47%	19.14%
6	2017-12-16	21.23	@ Aberystwyth Town	7	1059	56.60%	Prestatyn Town	1	982	24.74%	18.66%
7	2017-08-12	20.01	@ Llandudno	3	1101	41.29%	Carmarthen Town	0	1140	39.38%	19.34%
8	2017-08-11	19.85	@ Bangor City	5	1181	25.06%	The New Saints	2	1347	56.25%	18.69%
9	2017-11-17	19.53	Bangor City	2	1185	22.66%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1282	58.92%	18.42%
10	2017-12-30	18.57	Newtown	4	1139	10.75%	@ The New Saints	2	1400	73.66%	15.59%
11	2017-09-09	18.54	@ Barry Town United	2	1046	25.59%	Newtown	0	1207	55.67%	18.74%
12	2018-04-27	18.45	@ Cefn Druids	2	1134	25.85%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1293	55.39%	18.76%
13	2017-08-12	18.21	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1178	45.60%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1096	35.12%	19.27%
14	2018-02-03	18.05	@ Bangor City	3	1234	46.00%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1239	34.74%	19.26%
15	2017-09-30	16.96	The New Saints	5	1353	63.15%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1124	18.98%	17.87%
16	2017-08-11	16.89	@ Bala Town	3	1229	48.73%	Newtown	0	1214	32.10%	19.17%
17	2017-11-04	16.76	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1229	63.43%	Carmarthen Town	0	1089	18.74%	17.82%
18	2018-02-17	16.70	Cefn Druids	3	1116	23.37%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1207	58.12%	18.51%
19	2017-10-20	16.35	@ Prestatyn Town	4	961	18.19%	Bangor City	2	1199	64.09%	17.72%
20	2018-01-13	16.09	@ Aberystwyth Town	4	1060	19.13%	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1287	62.98%	17.89%
21	2017-12-22	15.95	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1260	59.41%	Newtown	0	1158	22.22%	18.36%
22	2018-02-24	15.75	@ Barry Town United	4	1095	44.51%	Llandudno	1	1111	36.19%	19.30%
23	2017-10-12	14.86	Bala Town	3	1159	29.85%	@ Newtown	1	1192	51.10%	19.06%
24	2017-12-23	14.80	@ Barry Town United	4	1076	61.38%	Prestatyn Town	0	956	20.50%	18.12%
25	2018-03-24	14.62	Barry Town United	2	1118	38.30%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1086	42.37%	19.33%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-04-27	66.8	@ The New Saints	3	1431	74.29%	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1161	10.31%	15.40%
2	2018-02-25	64.8	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1036	41.02%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1076	39.64%	19.34%
3	2017-10-10	62.2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1274	33.42%	The New Saints	2	1370	47.36%	19.22%
4	2018-02-02	62.1	@ Cefn Druids	2	1120	15.04%	The New Saints	2	1400	67.95%	17.01%
5	2017-09-07	61.6	@ Llandudno	2	1145	68.21%	Prestatyn Town	2	953	14.83%	16.96%
6	2018-03-09	61.6	@ Llandudno	2	1095	67.37%	Prestatyn Town	2	913	15.50%	17.13%
7	2017-09-15	61.3	@ Cefn Druids	2	1083	62.15%	Prestatyn Town	2	955	19.84%	18.01%
8	2018-03-31	57.9	Carmarthen Town	3	1035	20.89%	@ Newtown	2	1151	60.93%	18.18%
9	2017-10-14	57.5	Aberystwyth Town	3	1029	22.19%	@ Llandudno	2	1132	59.45%	18.36%
10	2017-12-30	57.5	Newtown	4	1139	10.75%	@ The New Saints	2	1400	73.66%	15.59%
11	2018-03-10	56.7	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1184	18.90%	The New Saints	1	1414	63.25%	17.85%
12	2017-10-07	56.2	@ Prestatyn Town	3	956	26.66%	Carmarthen Town	2	1107	54.51%	18.83%
13	2017-10-21	56.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1279	65.04%	Llandudno	1	1122	17.40%	17.56%
14	2017-12-29	56.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1281	66.25%	Cefn Druids	1	1111	16.41%	17.35%
15	2018-01-06	56.1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1241	67.37%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1058	15.50%	17.13%
16	2017-11-19	55.9	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1252	61.76%	Cefn Druids	1	1128	20.17%	18.07%
17	2018-02-01	55.9	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1271	57.26%	Bala Town	1	1188	24.15%	18.59%
18	2018-02-16	55.9	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1078	65.66%	Prestatyn Town	1	915	16.88%	17.45%
19	2017-08-18	55.8	@ Newtown	1	1197	61.28%	Cefn Druids	1	1077	20.58%	18.13%
20	2017-09-29	55.8	@ Bala Town	1	1169	63.54%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1027	18.65%	17.81%
21	2018-02-10	55.8	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1032	28.09%	Newtown	2	1170	52.96%	18.94%
22	2017-11-10	55.7	@ Bala Town	1	1194	34.28%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1283	46.47%	19.25%
23	2017-12-09	55.6	@ Barry Town United	1	1068	25.19%	Bangor City	1	1232	56.11%	18.70%
24	2018-01-06	55.4	@ Llandudno	1	1125	38.68%	Bala Town	1	1182	41.99%	19.33%
25	2018-04-15	55.4	@ Barry Town United	1	1137	46.12%	Newtown	1	1142	34.62%	19.26%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2017-12-22	25.0	@ The New Saints	4	1390	76.98%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1081	8.51%	14.51%
2	2017-10-14	26.0	@ The New Saints	6	1370	82.29%	Prestatyn Town	1	965	5.37%	12.34%
3	2017-09-08	26.1	@ The New Saints	4	1343	73.05%	Cefn Druids	0	1091	11.19%	15.76%
4	2017-08-11	26.9	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1258	69.74%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	957	13.64%	16.62%
5	2018-04-21	26.9	@ Newtown	3	1142	72.38%	Prestatyn Town	0	899	11.67%	15.95%
6	2018-01-13	27.2	@ Newtown	3	1157	71.18%	Prestatyn Town	0	929	12.55%	16.27%
7	2018-01-06	28.3	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1279	68.01%	Barry Town United	0	1090	15.00%	17.00%
8	2017-09-16	28.7	@ Newtown	4	1188	63.70%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1045	18.52%	17.78%
9	2018-03-16	28.9	@ The New Saints	3	1412	69.07%	Bala Town	0	1210	14.16%	16.77%
10	2017-11-04	29.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1229	63.43%	Carmarthen Town	0	1089	18.74%	17.82%
11	2018-03-25	29.3	@ The New Saints	5	1420	76.44%	Cefn Druids	1	1118	8.86%	14.70%
12	2017-09-30	29.4	The New Saints	5	1353	63.15%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1124	18.98%	17.87%
13	2017-12-23	29.4	@ Barry Town United	4	1076	61.38%	Prestatyn Town	0	956	20.50%	18.12%
14	2018-01-05	29.5	The New Saints	4	1393	80.53%	@ Prestatyn Town	1	932	6.34%	13.13%
15	2018-03-31	29.5	@ Barry Town United	2	1132	70.84%	Prestatyn Town	0	909	12.81%	16.35%
16	2017-12-31	30.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1230	62.26%	Barry Town United	0	1101	19.74%	18.00%
17	2017-12-22	30.2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1260	59.41%	Newtown	0	1158	22.22%	18.36%
18	2017-11-11	30.5	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1246	67.69%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	969	15.25%	17.06%
19	2018-02-09	30.7	@ The New Saints	3	1398	63.99%	Bangor City	0	1252	18.28%	17.74%
20	2018-03-31	31.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1281	59.37%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1179	22.26%	18.37%
21	2017-12-08	31.2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1263	68.50%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1068	14.61%	16.90%
22	2017-12-26	31.3	Bala Town	2	1186	64.72%	@ Prestatyn Town	0	941	17.66%	17.62%
23	2017-11-18	31.6	@ Newtown	3	1165	56.69%	Barry Town United	0	1086	24.66%	18.65%
24	2017-12-30	31.8	@ Bala Town	1	1192	73.49%	Prestatyn Town	0	934	10.87%	15.64%
25	2018-01-02	31.8	The New Saints	3	1381	58.64%	@ Bala Town	0	1195	22.91%	18.45%