2018-19 Welsh Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

74 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

The New Saints

5.89 points above expected

74 points · 68.11 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Llanelli Town

4.01 points below expected

16 points · 20.01 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Barry Town United	22	15	2	5	47	40	31	+9	34.12	+12.88
2	The New Saints	22	14	4	4	46	63	12	+51	48.21	-2.21
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	14	3	5	45	59	23	+36	43.86	+1.14
4	Newtown	22	10	6	6	36	38	29	+9	33.12	+2.88
5	Caernarfon Town	22	9	7	6	34	32	26	+6	26.20	+7.80
6	Bala Town	22	10	4	8	34	43	38	+5	32.45	+1.55
7	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	9	3	10	30	35	31	+4	32.56	-2.56
8	Aberystwyth Town	22	8	3	11	27	26	43	-17	26.47	+0.53
9	Carmarthen Town	22	6	6	10	24	30	42	-12	20.94	+3.06
10	Cefn Druids	22	5	6	11	21	26	40	-14	28.63	-7.63
11	Llanelli Town	22	4	3	15	15	21	70	-49	18.88	-3.88
12	Llandudno	22	2	5	15	11	17	45	-28	23.41	-12.41

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	23	5	4	74	99	16	+83	68.11	+5.89
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	19	5	8	62	76	33	+43	64.08	-2.08
3	Barry Town United	32	17	5	10	56	54	51	+3	57.61	-1.61
4	Caernarfon Town	32	13	7	12	46	45	47	-2	46.63	-0.63
5	Newtown	32	13	7	12	46	53	56	-3	45.90	+0.10
6	Bala Town	32	13	5	14	44	55	63	-8	44.32	-0.32

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	16	3	13	51	53	40	+13	50.43	+0.57
2	Aberystwyth Town	32	13	5	14	44	44	61	-17	40.63	+3.37
3	Carmarthen Town	32	12	6	14	42	49	53	-4	36.20	+5.80
4	Cefn Druids	32	10	9	13	39	43	49	-6	36.63	+2.37
5	Llandudno	32	5	7	20	22	33	65	-32	25.67	-3.67
6	Llanelli Town	32	4	4	24	16	31	101	-70	20.01	-4.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	The New Saints	74	68.11	+5.89
2	Carmarthen Town	42	36.20	+5.80
3	Aberystwyth Town	44	40.63	+3.37
4	Cefn Druids	39	36.63	+2.37
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	51	50.43	+0.57

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Llanelli Town	16	20.01	-4.01
2	Llandudno	22	25.67	-3.67
3	Connah's Quay Nomads	62	64.08	-2.08
4	Barry Town United	56	57.61	-1.61
5	Caernarfon Town	46	46.63	-0.63

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aberystwyth Town	5	Oct 20 – Nov 17	1 in 619
2	The New Saints	8	Feb 25 – Apr 26	1 in 25
3	Carmarthen Town	4	Apr 6 – Apr 26	1 in 17
4	Caernarfon Town	3	Jan 5 – Feb 2	1 in 15
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	Sep 14 – Oct 16	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	2	Nov 2 – Nov 9	1 in 86
2	Llanelli Town	9	Feb 8 – Apr 26	1 in 80
3	Aberystwyth Town	6	Dec 14 – Jan 12	1 in 52
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	Sep 1 – Sep 11	1 in 29
5	Cefn Druids	3	Aug 12 – Aug 24	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aberystwyth Town	7	Oct 12 – Nov 30	1 in 88
2	Bala Town	5	Sep 21 – Oct 20	1 in 20
3	The New Saints	18	Nov 17 – Apr 26	1 in 19
4	Cefn Druids	6	Feb 15 – Apr 12	1 in 16
5	Newtown	5	Oct 19 – Nov 21	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Llandudno	17	Sep 22 – Feb 1	1 in 426
2	Aberystwyth Town	8	Nov 30 – Feb 1	1 in 50
3	The New Saints	3	Oct 27 – Nov 9	1 in 31
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	6	Oct 20 – Dec 1	1 in 25
5	Bala Town	6	Jan 1 – Mar 8	1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1566	74	+74	15	11.5	+3.5
Connah's Quay Nomads	1361	62	+1	7	8.9	-1.9
Barry Town United	1180	56	+23	7	6.0	+1.0
Cardiff Metropolitan	1213	51	-2	12	10.3	+1.7
Caernarfon Town	1165	46	-8	6	5.2	+0.8
Newtown	1175	46	-47	3	5.3	-2.3
Aberystwyth Town	1067	44	-15	7	7.2	-0.2
Bala Town	1136	44	-43	6	5.4	+0.6
Carmarthen Town	1127	42	+51	12	7.7	+4.3
Cefn Druids	1163	39	+62	10	8.0	+2.0
Llandudno	961	22	-39	3	5.9	-2.9
Llanelli Town	814	16	-56	0	3.3	-3.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BTU	CT	CM	CT	CD	CQN	LLA	LT	NEW	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	2-0-0 2.28	0-0-2 1.99	0-1-1 2.90	2-0-2 4.23	1-2-1 5.87	0-1-3 5.20	0-0-2 1.18	3-1-0 6.27	4-0-0 7.33	0-0-2 1.91	1-0-1 1.08
Bala Town	0-0-2 3.35	—	1-0-3 5.47	1-1-2 5.81	1-0-1 3.02	2-0-0 3.53	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-3 3.31	2-0-0 3.60	2-0-0 4.10	2-1-1 5.35	0-2-2 2.42
Barry Town United	2-0-0 3.65	3-0-1 5.78	—	3-0-1 6.26	1-0-1 3.60	2-0-0 3.73	2-0-0 3.21	1-3-0 3.40	1-0-1 3.60	1-1-0 3.76	1-0-3 5.90	0-1-3 2.65
Caernarfon Town	1-1-0 2.73	2-1-1 5.45	1-0-3 4.99	—	2-0-0 2.19	1-0-1 3.12	1-1-0 2.31	2-1-1 2.73	0-2-0 3.84	1-1-0 3.59	1-0-3 5.07	1-0-3 2.06
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-0-2 7.03	1-0-1 2.60	1-0-1 2.03	0-0-2 3.45	—	1-1-2 7.53	2-1-1 6.69	0-0-2 1.72	3-0-1 8.08	4-0-0 8.76	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 1.20
Carmarthen Town	1-2-1 5.39	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 1.90	1-0-1 2.51	2-1-1 3.74	—	1-0-3 5.17	1-0-1 1.12	2-1-1 6.39	3-1-0 7.91	1-1-0 2.03	0-0-2 1.13
Cefn Druids	3-1-0 6.05	0-1-1 2.42	0-0-2 2.41	0-1-1 3.32	1-1-2 4.57	3-0-1 6.09	—	0-0-2 1.50	2-2-0 6.90	1-1-2 8.23	0-2-0 2.20	0-0-2 1.15
Connah's Quay Nomads	2-0-0 4.48	3-0-1 7.97	0-3-1 7.88	1-1-2 8.57	2-0-0 3.93	1-0-1 4.54	2-0-0 4.15	—	2-0-0 4.15	2-0-0 4.25	3-1-0 7.53	1-0-3 4.30
Llandudno	0-1-3 4.99	0-0-2 2.03	1-0-1 2.03	0-2-0 1.80	1-0-3 3.20	1-1-2 4.87	0-2-2 4.36	0-0-2 1.51	—	2-0-2 7.13	0-1-1 2.09	0-0-2 0.91
Llanelli Town	0-0-4 3.94	0-0-2 1.54	0-1-1 1.88	0-1-1 2.04	0-0-4 2.57	0-1-3 3.37	2-1-1 3.06	0-0-2 1.41	2-0-2 4.13	—	0-0-2 1.60	0-0-2 0.71
Newtown	2-0-0 3.73	1-1-2 5.90	3-0-1 5.35	3-0-1 6.19	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 3.61	0-2-0 3.44	0-1-3 3.74	1-1-0 3.55	2-0-0 4.05	—	0-1-3 2.54
The New Saints	1-0-1 4.58	2-2-0 8.90	3-1-0 8.66	3-0-1 9.29	0-1-1 4.46	2-0-0 4.53	2-0-0 4.51	3-0-1 6.97	2-0-0 4.77	2-0-0 5.00	3-1-0 8.77	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.82	+7.7
Allowed	0.81	-6.9
Differential	0.90	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	6.51%	5.21%	4.43%	2.60%	2.60%	25.52%
1	6.51%	8.85%	5.73%	4.95%	1.56%	1.56%	29.17%
2	5.21%	5.73%	4.17%	3.65%	0.78%	1.30%	20.83%
3	4.43%	4.95%	3.65%	0.52%	0.26%	—	13.80%
4	2.60%	1.56%	0.78%	0.26%	—	—	5.21%
5+	2.60%	1.56%	1.30%	—	—	—	5.47%
Total	25.52%	29.17%	20.83%	13.80%	5.21%	5.47%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.65	1.65	+0.00
SD	1.55	1.55	2.49
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
1	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	34.38%
2	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	12.50%
3	—	6.25%	15.62%	—	—	—	21.88%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.91	-0.53
SD	1.21	1.69	2.09
CV	0.88	0.89	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	21.88%
1	3.12%	3.12%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
2	3.12%	15.62%	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	40.62%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	12.50%	34.38%	21.88%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.97	-0.25
SD	1.44	1.56	2.31
CV	0.84	0.79	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	25.00%
1	12.50%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	3.12%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	9.38%	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	18.75%	28.12%	37.50%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.69	1.59	+0.09
SD	1.55	1.19	2.13
CV	0.92	0.75	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	28.12%
1	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	21.88%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.47	-0.06
SD	1.24	1.57	2.03
CV	0.88	1.07	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
1	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	34.38%
2	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
3	15.62%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.38%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.25	+0.41
SD	1.36	1.34	2.27
CV	0.82	1.08	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
1	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	34.38%
2	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	25.00%
3	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	28.12%	15.62%	25.00%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.66	-0.12
SD	1.34	1.45	2.09
CV	0.88	0.88	—
Max	6	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	31.25%
1	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	34.38%	21.88%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.53	-0.19
SD	1.31	1.54	2.21
CV	0.98	1.01	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
1	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
2	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
Total	25.00%	53.12%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.38	1.03	+1.34
SD	2.09	0.82	2.43
CV	0.88	0.80	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	37.50%
1	3.12%	6.25%	25.00%	3.12%	—	3.12%	40.62%
2	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
3	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	15.62%	34.38%	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	2.03	-1.00
SD	1.15	1.51	2.03
CV	1.11	0.74	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	9.38%	37.50%
1	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	31.25%
2	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	28.12%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	15.62%	31.25%	15.62%	18.75%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	3.16	-2.19
SD	0.90	1.87	2.25
CV	0.93	0.59	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	18.75%
1	—	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	31.25%
2	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	28.12%
3	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	34.38%	15.62%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.75	-0.09
SD	1.41	1.59	2.54
CV	0.85	0.91	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
1	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	—	15.62%
2	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	21.88%
4	9.38%	—	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	21.88%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	28.12%
Total	62.50%	31.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.09	0.50	+2.59
SD	2.15	0.84	2.59
CV	0.69	1.68	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1566	74	48.21	+25.79	40.0%	36	39	44	48	52	57	59
Connah's Quay Nomads	1361	62	43.86	+18.14	56.0%	29	32	39	44	49	54	59
Cardiff Metropolitan	1213	51	32.56	+18.44	39.0%	17	24	28	33	37	42	45
Barry Town United	1180	56	34.12	+21.88	97.0%	18	23	29	34	38	44	52
Newtown	1175	46	33.12	+12.88	70.0%	18	24	29	34	37	42	44
Caernarfon Town	1165	46	26.20	+19.80	94.0%	12	17	22	27	30	35	42
Cefn Druids	1163	39	28.63	+10.37	9.0%	13	19	24	29	33	38	44
Bala Town	1136	44	32.45	+11.55	64.0%	22	23	27	32	36	44	48
Carmarthen Town	1127	42	20.94	+21.06	57.0%	6	12	17	20	26	31	42
Aberystwyth Town	1067	44	26.47	+17.53	51.0%	13	15	22	27	31	37	42
Llandudno	961	22	23.41	-1.41	0.0%	13	17	20	23	26	32	36
Llanelli Town	814	16	18.88	-2.88	29.0%	5	11	15	19	23	27	33

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+19.79%

Strong Edge

51.04%17.71%31.25%

Elo Value

Home Edge

121 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

069.68400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.41 goals

Neutral

-2+0.58+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.9

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

68%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.38/gm

Comfortable

00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.73 * Some Luck: 4.73 to 7.1 * Lucky: 7.1 to 9.46 * Wild Swing: 9.46 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.64 * Way Off: 2.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.31 points

Some Luck

05.9115

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

Pinpoint

01.654

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

97.00%

Barry Town United

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

0.00%

Llandudno

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 147.33

2.02

Moderate Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

69%

Even

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

95%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

50%

Few

0%45%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Very Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.25

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.61

Strong Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Chalky

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.24

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.083

Well Within Noise

00.1230.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	68.00%	28.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	24.00%	42.00%	16.00%	8.00%	5.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	3.00%	11.00%	21.00%	15.00%	16.00%	10.00%	8.00%	10.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Caernarfon Town	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	9.00%	12.00%	17.00%	13.00%	15.00%	11.00%	9.00%	8.00%
Newtown	1.00%	6.00%	14.00%	23.00%	18.00%	10.00%	13.00%	9.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Bala Town	2.00%	6.00%	12.00%	15.00%	19.00%	12.00%	8.00%	13.00%	9.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	2.00%	3.00%	23.00%	12.00%	13.00%	12.00%	12.00%	13.00%	7.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	1.00%	3.00%	7.00%	7.00%	13.00%	14.00%	13.00%	7.00%	9.00%	15.00%	11.00%
Carmarthen Town	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	15.00%	18.00%	20.00%	28.00%
Cefn Druids	—	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	7.00%	17.00%	13.00%	10.00%	14.00%	12.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Llandudno	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	6.00%	9.00%	17.00%	26.00%	18.00%	12.00%
Llanelli Town	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	3.00%	11.00%	16.00%	28.00%	36.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	70.22%	24.88%	4.71%	0.18%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	25.85%	56.07%	16.32%	1.53%	0.20%	0.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	3.89%	17.71%	64.42%	11.47%	2.22%	0.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	0.02%	0.65%	6.40%	36.69%	32.79%	23.45%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	0.48%	5.30%	30.74%	33.59%	29.89%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	0.02%	0.21%	2.85%	19.39%	31.19%	46.34%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	—	—	—	—	87.52%	9.78%	2.34%	0.36%	—	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.45%	49.29%	27.16%	13.77%	1.29%	0.04%
Carmarthen Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.82%	20.21%	33.09%	36.88%	7.39%	0.61%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.19%	20.06%	34.49%	35.99%	6.74%	0.53%
Llandudno	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.65%	2.65%	10.97%	65.27%	20.44%
Llanelli Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.27%	2.03%	19.31%	78.38%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Barry Town United	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Bala Town	98.00%	2.00%
Caernarfon Town	97.00%	3.00%
Cefn Druids	91.00%	9.00%
Aberystwyth Town	76.00%	24.00%
Carmarthen Town	70.00%	30.00%
Llandudno	46.00%	54.00%
Llanelli Town	22.00%	78.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Barry Town United	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Aberystwyth Town	98.67%	1.33%
Cefn Druids	92.73%	7.27%
Carmarthen Town	92.00%	8.00%
Llandudno	14.29%	85.71%
Llanelli Town	2.31%	97.69%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2018-08-10	Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	40.3	1170	1094	59.25%	18.22%	22.53%	+1.20	+6.6	3
2018-08-10	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	40.3	1094	1170	22.53%	18.22%	59.25%	-1.20	-6.6	0
2018-08-10	Llandudno	W 1-0	38.3	1118	1118	50.16%	18.65%	31.19%	+0.57	+9.3	3
2018-08-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	38.3	1118	1118	31.19%	18.65%	50.16%	-0.57	-9.3	0
2018-08-10	Newtown	W 2-1	42.5	1171	1154	52.32%	18.58%	29.10%	+0.71	+8.2	3
2018-08-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	42.5	1154	1171	29.10%	18.58%	52.32%	-0.71	-8.2	0
2018-08-12	Barry Town United	W 5-1	32.2	1351	1159	69.82%	17.04%	13.14%	+2.16	+12.5	3
2018-08-12	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	32.2	1159	1351	13.14%	17.04%	69.82%	-2.16	-12.5	0
2018-08-12	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	41.7	1081	1164	38.64%	18.78%	42.58%	-0.11	+12.0	3
2018-08-12	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	41.7	1164	1081	42.58%	18.78%	38.64%	+0.11	-12.0	0
2018-08-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-7	33.7	1100	1249	29.93%	18.61%	51.46%	-0.66	-54.2	0
2018-08-12	@ Llanelli Town	W 7-0	33.7	1249	1100	51.46%	18.61%	29.93%	+0.66	+54.2	3
2018-08-17	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	34.0	1146	1093	56.75%	18.38%	24.87%	+1.02	+14.4	3
2018-08-17	@ Newtown	L 0-2	34.0	1093	1146	24.87%	18.38%	56.75%	-1.02	-14.4	3
2018-08-17	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-4	43.0	1127	1179	43.15%	18.77%	38.07%	+0.15	-28.0	3
2018-08-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	43.0	1179	1127	38.07%	18.77%	43.15%	-0.15	+28.0	6
2018-08-18	Llandudno	D 0-0	49.9	1087	1109	47.32%	18.72%	33.96%	+0.40	-0.9	1
2018-08-18	@ Carmarthen Town	D 0-0	49.9	1109	1087	33.96%	18.72%	47.32%	-0.40	+0.9	1
2018-08-18	Llanelli Town	L 2-3	57.3	1152	1046	62.45%	17.96%	19.59%	+1.46	-15.2	0
2018-08-18	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-2	57.3	1046	1152	19.59%	17.96%	62.45%	-1.46	+15.2	3
2018-08-19	Bala Town	W 3-2	49.4	1147	1176	46.28%	18.74%	34.99%	+0.33	+9.1	3
2018-08-19	@ Barry Town United	L 2-3	49.4	1176	1147	34.99%	18.74%	46.28%	-0.33	-9.1	3
2018-08-19	The New Saints	W 1-0	42.2	1303	1363	42.00%	18.78%	39.22%	+0.08	+11.2	6
2018-08-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	42.2	1363	1303	39.22%	18.78%	42.00%	-0.08	-11.2	3
2018-08-24	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	36.8	1314	1099	71.57%	16.73%	11.70%	+2.36	+3.5	9
2018-08-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	36.8	1099	1314	11.70%	16.73%	71.57%	-2.36	-3.5	3
2018-08-24	Barry Town United	D 1-1	53.7	1061	1156	37.00%	18.76%	44.24%	-0.21	+0.4	4
2018-08-24	@ Llanelli Town	D 1-1	53.7	1156	1061	44.24%	18.76%	37.00%	+0.21	-0.4	4
2018-08-24	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	41.9	1167	1137	54.00%	18.51%	27.49%	+0.83	+7.8	6
2018-08-24	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	41.9	1137	1167	27.49%	18.51%	54.00%	-0.83	-7.8	0
2018-08-25	Carmarthen Town	W 6-0	26.4	1352	1086	74.84%	16.02%	9.13%	+2.77	+15.3	6
2018-08-25	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	26.4	1086	1352	9.13%	16.02%	74.84%	-2.77	-15.3	1
2018-08-25	Newtown	D 0-0	49.9	1110	1160	43.35%	18.77%	37.88%	+0.16	-0.4	2
2018-08-25	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	49.9	1160	1110	37.88%	18.77%	43.35%	-0.16	+0.4	4
2018-08-26	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	48.0	1207	1078	64.57%	17.75%	17.68%	+1.64	-17.5	6
2018-08-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	48.0	1078	1207	17.68%	17.75%	64.57%	-1.64	+17.5	6
2018-08-31	Llanelli Town	W 3-1	39.9	1096	1061	54.54%	18.49%	26.97%	+0.86	+13.3	6
2018-08-31	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	39.9	1061	1096	26.97%	18.49%	54.54%	-0.86	-13.4	4
2018-08-31	The New Saints	L 0-3	30.1	1096	1367	17.41%	17.71%	64.88%	-1.67	-15.1	6
2018-08-31	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	30.1	1367	1096	64.88%	17.71%	17.41%	+1.67	+15.1	9
2018-09-01	Bala Town	W 2-0	36.6	1161	1175	48.34%	18.70%	32.96%	+0.46	+18.3	7
2018-09-01	@ Newtown	L 0-2	36.6	1175	1161	32.96%	18.70%	48.34%	-0.46	-18.3	6
2018-09-01	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	40.9	1071	1190	33.84%	18.72%	47.44%	-0.40	+24.8	4
2018-09-01	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	40.9	1190	1071	47.44%	18.72%	33.84%	+0.40	-24.8	6
2018-09-01	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	42.8	1156	1318	28.32%	18.55%	53.13%	-0.77	+27.4	7
2018-09-01	@ Barry Town United	L 0-2	42.8	1318	1156	53.13%	18.55%	28.32%	+0.77	-27.4	9
2018-09-01	Llandudno	W 2-1	42.3	1129	1110	52.70%	18.57%	28.73%	+0.74	+8.1	3
2018-09-01	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-2	42.3	1110	1129	28.73%	18.57%	52.70%	-0.74	-8.1	2
2018-09-08	Barry Town United	W 2-0	39.4	1101	1183	38.92%	18.78%	42.30%	-0.10	+22.5	5
2018-09-08	@ Llandudno	L 0-2	39.4	1183	1101	42.30%	18.78%	38.92%	+0.10	-22.5	7
2018-09-08	Llanelli Town	W 3-1	37.5	1157	1048	62.67%	17.94%	19.39%	+1.48	+9.9	9
2018-09-08	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	37.5	1048	1157	19.39%	17.94%	62.67%	-1.48	-9.9	4
2018-09-08	Newtown	W 3-0	37.7	1096	1179	38.68%	18.78%	42.54%	-0.11	+32.8	7
2018-09-08	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	37.7	1179	1096	42.54%	18.78%	38.68%	+0.11	-32.8	7
2018-09-09	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	37.2	1165	1137	53.68%	18.53%	27.79%	+0.80	+8.4	9
2018-09-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	37.2	1137	1165	27.79%	18.53%	53.68%	-0.80	-8.4	3
2018-09-11	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-0	26.4	1382	1109	75.30%	15.91%	8.79%	+2.84	+14.7	12
2018-09-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	26.4	1109	1382	8.79%	15.91%	75.30%	-2.84	-14.7	6
2018-09-11	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	49.8	1290	1081	71.19%	16.80%	12.01%	+2.31	-19.2	9
2018-09-11	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	49.8	1081	1290	12.01%	16.80%	71.19%	-2.31	+19.2	9
2018-09-14	Newtown	W 3-1	37.2	1271	1146	64.22%	17.79%	18.00%	+1.61	+9.3	12
2018-09-14	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	37.2	1146	1271	18.00%	17.79%	64.22%	-1.61	-9.3	7
2018-09-14	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.7	1038	1397	11.43%	16.67%	71.90%	-2.40	-6.9	4
2018-09-14	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-0	29.7	1397	1038	71.90%	16.67%	11.43%	+2.40	+6.9	15
2018-09-15	Bala Town	W 3-2	51.2	1094	1167	40.24%	18.78%	40.98%	-0.02	+10.4	9
2018-09-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	51.2	1167	1094	40.98%	18.78%	40.24%	+0.02	-10.4	9
2018-09-15	Barry Town United	L 0-1	41.5	1100	1160	41.93%	18.78%	39.29%	+0.08	-11.8	9
2018-09-15	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	41.5	1160	1100	39.29%	18.78%	41.93%	-0.08	+11.8	10
2018-09-15	Carmarthen Town	W 4-0	33.3	1129	1129	50.23%	18.65%	31.12%	+0.58	+33.1	6
2018-09-15	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-4	33.3	1129	1129	31.12%	18.65%	50.23%	-0.58	-33.1	7
2018-09-16	Llandudno	L 0-1	45.7	1173	1124	56.28%	18.40%	25.32%	+0.98	-15.3	9
2018-09-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	45.7	1124	1173	25.32%	18.40%	56.28%	-0.98	+15.3	8
2018-09-21	Bala Town	D 0-0	51.3	1404	1156	73.75%	16.28%	9.97%	+2.63	-4.8	16
2018-09-21	@ The New Saints	D 0-0	51.3	1156	1404	9.97%	16.28%	73.75%	-2.63	+4.8	10
2018-09-22	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.0	1096	1105	49.01%	18.68%	32.30%	+0.50	-0.8	8
2018-09-22	@ Carmarthen Town	D 2-2	59.0	1105	1096	32.30%	18.68%	49.01%	-0.50	+0.8	10
2018-09-22	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	43.9	1137	1158	47.44%	18.72%	33.85%	+0.40	+9.4	10
2018-09-22	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.9	1158	1137	33.85%	18.72%	47.44%	-0.40	-9.4	9
2018-09-22	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	42.7	1172	1162	51.53%	18.61%	29.86%	+0.66	+8.4	13
2018-09-22	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	42.7	1162	1172	29.86%	18.61%	51.53%	-0.66	-8.4	6
2018-09-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	33.4	1139	1280	30.91%	18.64%	50.45%	-0.59	-32.9	8
2018-09-22	@ Llandudno	W 4-0	33.4	1280	1139	50.45%	18.64%	30.91%	+0.59	+32.9	15
2018-09-22	Llanelli Town	W 3-0	32.1	1088	1031	57.19%	18.35%	24.46%	+1.05	+20.5	12
2018-09-22	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	32.1	1031	1088	24.46%	18.35%	57.19%	-1.05	-20.6	4
2018-09-28	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	53.8	1154	1109	55.77%	18.43%	25.80%	+0.95	-1.9	7
2018-09-28	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.8	1109	1154	25.80%	18.43%	55.77%	-0.95	+1.9	13
2018-09-28	Llandudno	W 2-1	41.0	1161	1106	56.89%	18.37%	24.74%	+1.03	+7.2	13
2018-09-28	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	41.0	1106	1161	24.74%	18.37%	56.89%	-1.03	-7.1	8
2018-09-28	Newtown	L 1-3	41.3	1010	1146	31.58%	18.66%	49.76%	-0.55	-15.3	4
2018-09-28	@ Llanelli Town	W 3-1	41.3	1146	1010	49.76%	18.66%	31.58%	+0.55	+15.3	13
2018-09-29	Barry Town United	L 0-1	40.9	1105	1181	39.81%	18.78%	41.41%	-0.05	-11.4	10
2018-09-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	40.9	1181	1105	41.41%	18.78%	39.81%	+0.05	+11.4	16
2018-09-29	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	34.9	1313	1095	71.81%	16.69%	11.51%	+2.39	+6.0	18
2018-09-29	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	34.9	1095	1313	11.51%	16.69%	71.81%	-2.39	-6.0	8
2018-09-30	The New Saints	W 4-1	49.2	1148	1399	19.18%	17.92%	62.91%	-1.50	+39.4	12
2018-09-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-4	49.2	1399	1148	62.91%	17.92%	19.18%	+1.50	-39.4	16
2018-10-05	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	36.1	1152	1094	57.23%	18.35%	24.42%	+1.05	+7.5	10
2018-10-05	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-1	36.1	1094	1152	24.42%	18.35%	57.23%	-1.05	-7.5	10
2018-10-05	Bala Town	D 2-2	59.1	1111	1168	42.34%	18.78%	38.88%	+0.10	-0.1	14
2018-10-05	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.1	1168	1111	38.88%	18.78%	42.34%	-0.10	+0.1	14
2018-10-06	Barry Town United	W 2-0	37.3	1162	1192	46.14%	18.74%	35.12%	+0.33	+19.3	16
2018-10-06	@ Newtown	L 0-2	37.3	1192	1162	35.12%	18.74%	46.14%	-0.33	-19.3	16
2018-10-06	Llanelli Town	L 1-2	52.1	1099	995	62.20%	17.98%	19.81%	+1.44	-15.9	8
2018-10-06	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	52.1	995	1099	19.81%	17.98%	62.20%	-1.44	+15.9	7
2018-10-06	The New Saints	L 0-3	30.1	1089	1360	17.45%	17.72%	64.83%	-1.67	-15.1	8
2018-10-06	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-0	30.1	1360	1089	64.83%	17.72%	17.45%	+1.67	+15.1	19
2018-10-07	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	42.0	1188	1319	32.14%	18.68%	49.18%	-0.51	-15.5	12
2018-10-07	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	42.0	1319	1188	49.18%	18.68%	32.14%	+0.51	+15.5	21
2018-10-12	Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	49.9	1087	1110	47.04%	18.73%	34.23%	+0.38	-0.9	11
2018-10-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.9	1110	1087	34.23%	18.73%	47.04%	-0.38	+0.9	15
2018-10-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	35.1	1011	1172	28.44%	18.56%	53.00%	-0.76	-16.1	7
2018-10-12	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-0	35.1	1172	1011	53.00%	18.56%	28.44%	+0.76	+16.1	15
2018-10-12	Newtown	W 3-2	48.7	1168	1181	48.54%	18.69%	32.77%	+0.47	+8.6	17
2018-10-12	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	48.7	1181	1168	32.77%	18.69%	48.54%	-0.47	-8.7	16
2018-10-13	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	34.8	1173	1074	61.69%	18.03%	20.28%	+1.40	+6.3	19
2018-10-13	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	34.8	1074	1173	20.28%	18.03%	61.69%	-1.40	-6.3	8
2018-10-16	Cefn Druids	W 3-1	36.1	1335	1159	68.62%	17.23%	14.15%	+2.03	+7.4	24
2018-10-16	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	36.1	1159	1335	14.15%	17.23%	68.62%	-2.03	-7.4	10
2018-10-17	Llandudno	W 6-1	29.0	1375	1083	76.34%	15.63%	8.03%	+2.99	+9.4	22
2018-10-17	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	29.0	1083	1375	8.03%	15.63%	76.34%	-2.99	-9.4	8
2018-10-19	Llanelli Town	W 5-2	36.8	1179	995	69.28%	17.13%	13.59%	+2.10	+8.7	22
2018-10-19	@ Barry Town United	L 2-5	36.8	995	1179	13.59%	17.13%	69.28%	-2.10	-8.7	7
2018-10-19	Newtown	L 0-3	37.5	1111	1172	41.85%	18.78%	39.37%	+0.07	-32.4	15
2018-10-19	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	37.5	1172	1111	39.37%	18.78%	41.85%	-0.07	+32.4	19
2018-10-20	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	43.5	1074	1086	48.65%	18.69%	32.65%	+0.48	-13.5	8
2018-10-20	@ Llandudno	W 1-0	43.5	1086	1074	32.65%	18.69%	48.65%	-0.48	+13.4	14
2018-10-20	Bala Town	L 1-2	44.2	1067	1177	35.04%	18.74%	46.22%	-0.33	-9.6	8
2018-10-20	@ Carmarthen Town	W 2-1	44.2	1177	1067	46.22%	18.74%	35.04%	+0.33	+9.6	20
2018-10-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	53.8	1152	1189	45.27%	18.75%	35.98%	+0.27	-0.6	11
2018-10-20	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.8	1189	1152	35.98%	18.75%	45.27%	-0.27	+0.6	16
2018-10-20	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-0	34.8	1384	1342	55.41%	18.45%	26.14%	+0.92	+21.8	25
2018-10-20	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	34.8	1342	1384	26.14%	18.45%	55.41%	-0.92	-21.8	24
2018-10-26	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	42.3	986	1099	34.57%	18.73%	46.69%	-0.36	-16.5	7
2018-10-26	@ Llanelli Town	W 3-1	42.3	1099	986	46.69%	18.73%	34.57%	+0.36	+16.5	17
2018-10-26	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	49.9	1061	1151	37.63%	18.77%	43.60%	-0.17	+0.4	9
2018-10-26	@ Llandudno	D 0-0	49.9	1151	1061	43.60%	18.77%	37.63%	+0.17	-0.4	12
2018-10-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.3	1079	1321	19.98%	18.00%	62.02%	-1.42	+3.0	16
2018-10-26	@ Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	50.3	1321	1079	62.02%	18.00%	19.98%	+1.42	-3.0	25
2018-10-27	Barry Town United	L 0-1	44.0	1187	1188	50.05%	18.66%	31.30%	+0.57	-13.8	20
2018-10-27	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	44.0	1188	1187	31.30%	18.66%	50.05%	-0.57	+13.8	25
2018-10-27	The New Saints	D 1-1	54.8	1205	1406	23.95%	18.32%	57.73%	-1.09	+2.1	20
2018-10-27	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.8	1406	1205	57.73%	18.32%	23.95%	+1.09	-2.2	26
2018-10-28	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	54.0	1189	1058	64.81%	17.72%	17.47%	+1.66	-3.1	17
2018-10-28	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.0	1058	1189	17.47%	17.72%	64.81%	-1.66	+3.1	9
2018-11-02	Newtown	D 1-1	53.8	1151	1207	42.56%	18.78%	38.66%	+0.11	-0.2	13
2018-11-02	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	53.8	1207	1151	38.66%	18.78%	42.56%	-0.11	+0.2	21
2018-11-02	The New Saints	W 1-0	48.9	1116	1404	16.09%	17.54%	66.37%	-1.81	+18.0	20
2018-11-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	48.9	1404	1116	66.37%	17.54%	16.09%	+1.81	-18.0	26
2018-11-03	Caernarfon Town	W 4-3	52.2	1061	1082	47.41%	18.72%	33.87%	+0.40	+8.7	12
2018-11-03	@ Carmarthen Town	L 3-4	52.2	1082	1061	33.87%	18.72%	47.41%	-0.40	-8.7	16
2018-11-03	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	34.8	1173	1186	48.47%	18.70%	32.84%	+0.47	+26.5	23
2018-11-03	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	34.8	1186	1173	32.84%	18.70%	48.47%	-0.47	-26.5	17
2018-11-03	Llanelli Town	W 6-0	24.9	1317	970	79.22%	14.73%	6.05%	+3.46	+10.0	28
2018-11-03	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-6	24.9	970	1317	6.05%	14.73%	79.22%	-3.46	-10.0	7
2018-11-04	Llandudno	W 2-1	38.4	1202	1061	65.65%	17.63%	16.72%	+1.74	+5.0	28
2018-11-04	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	38.4	1061	1202	16.72%	17.63%	65.65%	-1.74	-5.0	9
2018-11-09	Bala Town	L 2-4	45.4	1056	1199	30.64%	18.64%	50.72%	-0.61	-13.3	9
2018-11-09	@ Llandudno	W 4-2	45.4	1199	1056	50.72%	18.64%	30.64%	+0.61	+13.3	26
2018-11-09	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	51.4	1386	1073	77.48%	15.30%	7.22%	+3.16	-20.8	26
2018-11-09	@ The New Saints	W 1-0	51.4	1073	1386	7.22%	15.30%	77.48%	-3.16	+20.8	19
2018-11-10	Barry Town United	D 2-2	59.8	1328	1207	63.84%	17.83%	18.34%	+1.58	-2.2	29
2018-11-10	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 2-2	59.8	1207	1328	18.34%	17.83%	63.84%	-1.58	+2.2	29
2018-11-10	Cefn Druids	L 2-3	50.5	1070	1151	38.98%	18.78%	42.24%	-0.09	-10.0	12
2018-11-10	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	50.5	1151	1070	42.24%	18.78%	38.98%	+0.09	+10.0	16
2018-11-10	Llanelli Town	W 7-1	28.7	1207	960	73.73%	16.29%	9.99%	+2.63	+13.8	24
2018-11-10	@ Newtown	L 1-7	28.7	960	1207	9.99%	16.29%	73.73%	-2.63	-13.8	7
2018-11-11	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	54.9	1159	1134	53.47%	18.54%	27.99%	+0.79	-13.1	17
2018-11-11	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	54.9	1134	1159	27.99%	18.54%	53.47%	-0.79	+13.1	23
2018-11-17	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	56.3	1213	1147	58.17%	18.29%	23.54%	+1.12	-14.1	26
2018-11-17	@ Bala Town	W 3-2	56.3	1147	1213	23.54%	18.29%	58.17%	-1.12	+14.2	26
2018-11-17	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	38.1	1094	1146	43.08%	18.77%	38.14%	+0.14	+20.7	22
2018-11-17	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	38.1	1146	1094	38.14%	18.77%	43.08%	-0.14	-20.7	17
2018-11-17	Carmarthen Town	L 1-2	48.0	1043	1060	47.96%	18.71%	33.33%	+0.44	-12.5	9
2018-11-17	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	48.0	1060	1043	33.33%	18.71%	47.96%	-0.44	+12.5	15
2018-11-17	Cefn Druids	W 2-0	44.2	946	1161	22.57%	18.22%	59.21%	-1.20	+30.3	10
2018-11-17	@ Llanelli Town	L 0-2	44.2	1161	946	59.21%	18.22%	22.57%	+1.20	-30.3	16
2018-11-17	The New Saints	L 0-2	36.0	1209	1365	29.05%	18.58%	52.37%	-0.72	-16.4	29
2018-11-17	@ Barry Town United	W 2-0	36.0	1365	1209	52.37%	18.58%	29.05%	+0.72	+16.4	29
2018-11-21	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.3	1221	1325	35.74%	18.75%	45.51%	-0.29	+0.6	25
2018-11-21	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.3	1325	1221	45.51%	18.75%	35.74%	+0.29	-0.6	30
2018-11-30	Bala Town	D 2-2	59.1	1130	1198	40.82%	18.78%	40.40%	+0.01	-0.0	17
2018-11-30	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	59.1	1198	1130	40.40%	18.78%	40.82%	-0.01	+0.0	27
2018-11-30	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	53.9	1161	1072	60.64%	18.11%	21.24%	+1.31	-2.5	27
2018-11-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.9	1072	1161	21.24%	18.11%	60.64%	-1.31	+2.5	16
2018-12-01	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.0	976	1115	31.25%	18.65%	50.10%	-0.57	+0.9	11
2018-12-01	@ Llanelli Town	D 2-2	59.0	1115	976	50.10%	18.65%	31.25%	+0.57	-0.9	23
2018-12-01	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.9	1382	1126	74.25%	16.16%	9.58%	+2.69	-4.4	30
2018-12-01	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	54.9	1126	1382	9.58%	16.16%	74.25%	-2.69	+4.4	18
2018-12-01	Llandudno	W 3-0	26.4	1325	1030	76.52%	15.58%	7.90%	+3.02	+6.9	33
2018-12-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	26.4	1030	1325	7.90%	15.58%	76.52%	-3.02	-6.9	9
2018-12-01	Newtown	W 4-1	40.7	1192	1222	46.31%	18.74%	34.95%	+0.34	+23.6	32
2018-12-01	@ Barry Town United	L 1-4	40.7	1222	1192	34.95%	18.74%	46.31%	-0.34	-23.6	25
2018-12-14	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	35.2	1114	1158	44.18%	18.77%	37.05%	+0.21	+38.3	26
2018-12-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-4	35.2	1158	1114	37.05%	18.77%	44.18%	-0.21	-38.3	27
2018-12-14	Barry Town United	L 2-3	48.1	1075	1216	30.90%	18.64%	50.45%	-0.59	-8.2	16
2018-12-14	@ Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	48.1	1216	1075	50.45%	18.64%	30.90%	+0.59	+8.2	35
2018-12-14	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	41.0	1130	1332	23.95%	18.32%	57.74%	-1.09	-6.9	17
2018-12-14	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	41.0	1332	1130	57.74%	18.32%	23.95%	+1.09	+6.9	36
2018-12-14	Llanelli Town	W 4-0	28.3	1130	977	66.74%	17.49%	15.77%	+1.84	+17.9	21
2018-12-14	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	28.3	977	1130	15.77%	17.49%	66.74%	-1.84	-17.9	11
2018-12-14	The New Saints	D 1-1	54.6	1198	1377	26.43%	18.46%	55.11%	-0.90	+1.8	28
2018-12-14	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	54.6	1377	1198	55.11%	18.46%	26.43%	+0.90	-1.8	31
2018-12-15	Llandudno	W 3-1	35.7	1198	1023	68.54%	17.24%	14.22%	+2.02	+7.4	28
2018-12-15	@ Newtown	L 1-3	35.7	1023	1198	14.22%	17.24%	68.54%	-2.02	-7.4	9
2018-12-21	Cefn Druids	L 0-2	41.5	1120	1123	49.79%	18.66%	31.55%	+0.55	-25.9	27
2018-12-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	41.5	1123	1120	31.55%	18.66%	49.79%	-0.55	+25.9	20
2018-12-22	Bala Town	L 1-7	32.2	959	1200	20.03%	18.00%	61.97%	-1.42	-27.1	11
2018-12-22	@ Llanelli Town	W 7-1	32.2	1200	959	61.97%	18.00%	20.03%	+1.42	+27.1	31
2018-12-22	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	40.6	1224	1152	58.84%	18.25%	22.92%	+1.17	+6.7	38
2018-12-22	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	40.6	1152	1224	22.92%	18.25%	58.84%	-1.17	-6.7	26
2018-12-22	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 6-1	31.0	1339	1148	69.77%	17.05%	13.18%	+2.15	+15.4	39
2018-12-22	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-6	31.0	1148	1339	13.18%	17.05%	69.77%	-2.15	-15.4	21
2018-12-22	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	54.1	1205	1066	65.50%	17.64%	16.85%	+1.73	-3.2	29
2018-12-22	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.1	1066	1205	16.85%	17.64%	65.50%	-1.73	+3.2	17
2018-12-22	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.0	1016	1375	11.41%	16.66%	71.92%	-2.40	-13.1	9
2018-12-22	@ Llandudno	W 4-0	27.0	1375	1016	71.92%	16.66%	11.41%	+2.40	+13.1	34
2018-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	39.7	1231	1133	61.60%	18.03%	20.36%	+1.39	+6.0	41
2018-12-26	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	39.7	1133	1231	20.36%	18.03%	61.60%	-1.39	-6.0	21
2018-12-26	Carmarthen Town	D 1-1	53.7	932	1070	31.37%	18.66%	49.97%	-0.56	+1.2	12
2018-12-26	@ Llanelli Town	D 1-1	53.7	1070	932	49.97%	18.66%	31.37%	+0.56	-1.1	18
2018-12-26	Cefn Druids	W 7-0	27.6	1388	1149	73.21%	16.40%	10.39%	+2.56	+20.2	37
2018-12-26	@ The New Saints	L 0-7	27.6	1149	1388	10.39%	16.40%	73.21%	-2.56	-20.2	20
2018-12-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	49.0	1227	1354	32.78%	18.69%	48.52%	-0.47	+12.6	34
2018-12-26	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	49.0	1354	1227	48.52%	18.69%	32.78%	+0.47	-12.7	39
2018-12-26	Newtown	L 0-2	37.2	1094	1202	35.25%	18.74%	46.00%	-0.32	-19.4	27
2018-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	37.2	1202	1094	46.00%	18.74%	35.25%	+0.32	+19.4	32
2018-12-29	Llandudno	D 3-3	63.7	1145	1003	65.84%	17.60%	16.55%	+1.76	-2.0	27
2018-12-29	@ Caernarfon Town	D 3-3	63.7	1003	1145	16.55%	17.60%	65.84%	-1.76	+2.0	10
2018-12-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	38.3	1222	1075	66.19%	17.56%	16.25%	+1.79	+4.9	35
2018-12-30	@ Newtown	L 1-2	38.3	1075	1222	16.25%	17.56%	66.19%	-1.79	-4.9	27
2018-12-31	Barry Town United	W 3-0	38.9	1127	1237	34.96%	18.74%	46.30%	-0.34	+35.3	24
2018-12-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	38.9	1237	1127	46.30%	18.74%	34.96%	+0.34	-35.3	41
2019-01-01	Bala Town	W 4-1	36.6	1341	1240	61.92%	18.01%	20.07%	+1.42	+14.5	42
2019-01-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-4	36.6	1240	1341	20.07%	18.01%	61.92%	-1.42	-14.5	34
2019-01-01	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	53.7	1005	1143	31.22%	18.65%	50.13%	-0.57	+1.2	11
2019-01-01	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	53.7	1143	1005	50.13%	18.65%	31.22%	+0.57	-1.2	28
2019-01-01	Llanelli Town	W 2-0	31.4	1068	933	65.17%	17.68%	17.15%	+1.70	+10.2	21
2019-01-01	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	31.4	933	1068	17.15%	17.68%	65.17%	-1.70	-10.2	12
2019-01-01	The New Saints	L 0-3	30.1	1129	1409	16.74%	17.63%	65.63%	-1.74	-14.5	20
2019-01-01	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	30.1	1409	1129	65.63%	17.63%	16.74%	+1.74	+14.5	40
2019-01-04	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-6	31.9	1070	1356	16.27%	17.56%	66.17%	-1.79	-18.9	27
2019-01-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 6-1	31.9	1356	1070	66.17%	17.56%	16.27%	+1.79	+18.9	45
2019-01-04	Newtown	W 4-0	28.6	1423	1226	70.24%	16.97%	12.79%	+2.21	+14.6	43
2019-01-04	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	28.6	1226	1423	12.79%	16.97%	70.24%	-2.21	-14.7	35
2019-01-05	Bala Town	W 3-0	36.9	1162	1226	41.48%	18.78%	39.74%	+0.05	+31.0	27
2019-01-05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	36.9	1226	1162	39.74%	18.78%	41.48%	-0.05	-31.0	34
2019-01-05	Barry Town United	L 2-5	44.8	1114	1202	38.13%	18.77%	43.10%	-0.14	-21.9	20
2019-01-05	@ Cefn Druids	W 5-2	44.8	1202	1114	43.10%	18.77%	38.13%	+0.14	+21.9	44
2019-01-05	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	38.9	1142	1079	57.92%	18.31%	23.78%	+1.10	+11.9	31
2019-01-05	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	38.9	1079	1142	23.78%	18.31%	57.92%	-1.10	-12.0	21
2019-01-05	Llandudno	W 2-1	46.4	923	1006	38.72%	18.78%	42.50%	-0.11	+11.3	15
2019-01-05	@ Llanelli Town	L 1-2	46.4	1006	923	42.50%	18.78%	38.72%	+0.11	-11.3	11
2019-01-12	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	37.6	1223	1051	68.34%	17.27%	14.39%	+2.00	+4.3	47
2019-01-12	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	37.6	1051	1223	14.39%	17.27%	68.34%	-2.00	-4.3	27
2019-01-12	Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	48.5	1194	1154	55.21%	18.46%	26.33%	+0.91	-24.6	34
2019-01-12	@ Bala Town	W 3-1	48.5	1154	1194	26.33%	18.46%	55.21%	-0.91	+24.6	34
2019-01-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	32.0	995	1193	24.27%	18.34%	57.40%	-1.07	-20.4	11
2019-01-12	@ Llandudno	W 3-0	32.0	1193	995	57.40%	18.34%	24.27%	+1.07	+20.4	30
2019-01-12	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	54.0	1212	1092	63.68%	17.84%	18.48%	+1.56	-3.0	36
2019-01-12	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.0	1092	1212	18.48%	17.84%	63.68%	-1.56	+3.0	21
2019-01-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	59.1	1067	1375	14.65%	17.32%	68.04%	-1.97	+16.5	24
2019-01-12	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-3	59.1	1375	1067	68.04%	17.32%	14.65%	+1.97	-16.5	45
2019-01-12	Llanelli Town	W 5-0	22.8	1438	934	85.22%	12.05%	2.73%	+4.75	+3.6	46
2019-01-12	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	22.8	934	1438	2.73%	12.05%	85.22%	-4.75	-3.6	15

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2019-02-01	Llandudno	D 1-1	53.8	1047	974	58.91%	18.24%	22.85%	+1.18	-2.3	1
2019-02-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.8	974	1047	22.85%	18.24%	58.91%	-1.18	+2.3	1
2019-02-02	Barry Town United	W 2-0	38.1	1179	1228	43.57%	18.77%	37.66%	+0.17	+20.5	3
2019-02-02	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	38.1	1228	1179	37.66%	18.77%	43.57%	-0.17	-20.5	0
2019-02-02	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	43.6	1083	1213	32.32%	18.68%	48.99%	-0.50	+13.5	3
2019-02-02	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	43.6	1213	1083	48.99%	18.68%	32.32%	+0.50	-13.5	0
2019-02-02	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	43.3	1209	1358	29.89%	18.61%	51.50%	-0.66	-8.4	0
2019-02-02	@ Newtown	W 2-1	43.3	1358	1209	51.50%	18.61%	29.89%	+0.66	+8.4	3
2019-02-02	Llanelli Town	D 0-0	50.3	1095	931	67.73%	17.36%	14.91%	+1.94	-3.9	1
2019-02-02	@ Cefn Druids	D 0-0	50.3	931	1095	14.91%	17.36%	67.73%	-1.94	+3.9	1
2019-02-08	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-4	46.7	935	1044	34.99%	18.74%	46.27%	-0.33	-14.9	1
2019-02-08	@ Llanelli Town	W 4-2	46.7	1044	935	46.27%	18.74%	34.99%	+0.33	+14.9	4
2019-02-08	Caernarfon Town	W 6-2	35.3	1367	1199	67.93%	17.33%	14.74%	+1.96	+11.9	6
2019-02-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 2-6	35.3	1199	1367	14.74%	17.33%	67.93%	-1.96	-11.9	3
2019-02-08	Newtown	W 5-0	27.5	1441	1200	73.32%	16.38%	10.30%	+2.57	+14.6	3
2019-02-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	27.5	1200	1441	10.30%	16.38%	73.32%	-2.57	-14.6	0
2019-02-09	Carmarthen Town	W 3-1	46.2	976	1097	33.61%	18.71%	47.67%	-0.42	+21.6	4
2019-02-09	@ Llandudno	L 1-3	46.2	1097	976	47.67%	18.71%	33.61%	+0.42	-21.6	3
2019-02-10	Cefn Druids	W 3-0	30.5	1200	1092	62.61%	17.94%	19.44%	+1.47	+16.7	3
2019-02-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	30.5	1092	1200	19.44%	17.94%	62.61%	-1.47	-16.7	1
2019-02-15	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	40.6	1075	1059	52.18%	18.59%	29.23%	+0.70	+14.3	4
2019-02-15	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	40.6	1059	1075	29.23%	18.59%	52.18%	-0.70	-14.3	4
2019-02-15	Carmarthen Town	L 0-3	33.5	920	1075	29.15%	18.58%	52.27%	-0.71	-23.9	1
2019-02-15	@ Llanelli Town	W 3-0	33.5	1075	920	52.27%	18.58%	29.15%	+0.71	+23.9	6
2019-02-16	Barry Town United	D 2-2	61.2	1456	1207	73.81%	16.27%	9.92%	+2.64	-3.2	4
2019-02-16	@ The New Saints	D 2-2	61.2	1207	1456	9.92%	16.27%	73.81%	-2.64	+3.2	1
2019-02-16	Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	48.3	1186	1187	49.99%	18.66%	31.35%	+0.56	+8.3	3
2019-02-16	@ Newtown	L 2-3	48.3	1187	1186	31.35%	18.66%	49.99%	-0.56	-8.3	3
2019-02-16	Llandudno	W 3-0	27.7	1216	998	71.80%	16.69%	11.51%	+2.39	+10.1	6
2019-02-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	27.7	998	1216	11.51%	16.69%	71.80%	-2.39	-10.1	4
2019-02-22	Newtown	D 2-2	59.1	1170	1194	46.98%	18.73%	34.30%	+0.38	-0.6	1
2019-02-22	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	59.1	1194	1170	34.30%	18.73%	46.98%	-0.38	+0.6	4
2019-02-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	43.2	1045	1227	26.11%	18.45%	55.45%	-0.93	+28.5	7
2019-02-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	43.2	1227	1045	55.45%	18.45%	26.11%	+0.93	-28.5	6
2019-02-23	Cefn Druids	L 0-1	44.3	1099	1089	51.49%	18.61%	29.90%	+0.66	-14.1	6
2019-02-23	@ Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	44.3	1089	1099	29.90%	18.61%	51.49%	-0.66	+14.1	7
2019-02-23	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.6	1211	1378	27.66%	18.52%	53.81%	-0.81	+1.6	2
2019-02-23	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.6	1378	1211	53.81%	18.52%	27.66%	+0.81	-1.6	7
2019-02-23	Llanelli Town	W 4-2	42.3	988	896	61.00%	18.09%	20.92%	+1.34	+9.5	7
2019-02-23	@ Llandudno	L 2-4	42.3	896	988	20.92%	18.09%	61.00%	-1.34	-9.5	1
2019-02-25	The New Saints	L 0-3	30.9	1179	1453	17.22%	17.69%	65.08%	-1.69	-14.9	3
2019-02-25	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	30.9	1453	1179	65.08%	17.69%	17.22%	+1.69	+14.9	7
2019-02-26	Bala Town	W 1-0	32.6	1377	1169	71.03%	16.83%	12.14%	+2.30	+3.9	10
2019-02-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	32.6	1169	1377	12.14%	16.83%	71.03%	-2.30	-3.9	1
2019-03-08	Bala Town	W 1-0	38.4	1164	1165	50.05%	18.66%	31.30%	+0.57	+9.3	6
2019-03-08	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	38.4	1165	1164	31.30%	18.66%	50.05%	-0.57	-9.3	1
2019-03-08	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	27.8	886	1198	14.37%	17.27%	68.36%	-2.01	-16.4	1
2019-03-08	@ Llanelli Town	W 4-0	27.8	1198	886	68.36%	17.27%	14.37%	+2.01	+16.4	9
2019-03-08	Carmarthen Town	W 3-2	48.6	1074	1085	48.71%	18.69%	32.60%	+0.48	+8.6	10
2019-03-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	48.6	1085	1074	32.60%	18.69%	48.71%	-0.48	-8.6	6
2019-03-08	Llandudno	D 2-2	59.2	1103	997	62.37%	17.97%	19.66%	+1.45	-2.1	8
2019-03-08	@ Cefn Druids	D 2-2	59.2	997	1103	19.66%	17.97%	62.37%	-1.45	+2.1	8
2019-03-09	Barry Town United	W 3-0	35.0	1195	1212	47.90%	18.71%	33.40%	+0.43	+26.9	7
2019-03-09	@ Newtown	L 0-3	35.0	1212	1195	33.40%	18.71%	47.90%	-0.43	-26.9	2
2019-03-09	The New Saints	L 0-2	42.9	1381	1468	38.15%	18.77%	43.08%	-0.14	-20.7	10
2019-03-09	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	42.9	1468	1381	43.08%	18.77%	38.15%	+0.14	+20.7	10
2019-03-15	Newtown	W 2-0	32.1	1360	1222	65.46%	17.65%	16.89%	+1.72	+10.1	13
2019-03-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	32.1	1222	1360	16.89%	17.65%	65.46%	-1.72	-10.1	7
2019-03-16	Bala Town	L 0-2	42.8	1185	1156	53.89%	18.52%	27.60%	+0.82	-27.8	2
2019-03-16	@ Barry Town United	W 2-0	42.8	1156	1185	27.60%	18.52%	53.89%	-0.82	+27.8	4
2019-03-22	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	45.3	1000	1082	38.75%	18.78%	42.47%	-0.11	-10.5	8
2019-03-22	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	45.3	1082	1000	42.47%	18.78%	38.75%	+0.11	+10.5	13
2019-03-22	Bala Town	W 3-1	34.7	1488	1184	77.05%	15.43%	7.52%	+3.10	+3.9	13
2019-03-22	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	34.7	1184	1488	7.52%	15.43%	77.05%	-3.10	-3.9	4
2019-03-23	Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	34.0	1157	1173	48.10%	18.70%	33.20%	+0.44	+35.0	5
2019-03-23	@ Barry Town United	L 0-4	34.0	1173	1157	33.20%	18.70%	48.10%	-0.44	-35.0	6
2019-03-23	Carmarthen Town	W 1-0	33.7	1214	1076	65.43%	17.65%	16.92%	+1.72	+5.4	12
2019-03-23	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	33.7	1076	1214	16.92%	17.65%	65.43%	-1.72	-5.4	6
2019-03-23	Cefn Druids	L 1-3	38.0	870	1101	20.93%	18.09%	60.98%	-1.34	-10.7	1
2019-03-23	@ Llanelli Town	W 3-1	38.0	1101	870	60.98%	18.09%	20.93%	+1.34	+10.6	11
2019-04-03	The New Saints	L 0-7	30.0	1180	1492	14.34%	17.26%	68.40%	-2.01	-27.7	4
2019-04-03	@ Bala Town	W 7-0	30.0	1492	1180	68.40%	17.26%	14.34%	+2.01	+27.7	16
2019-04-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	47.5	1139	1370	20.92%	18.08%	61.00%	-1.34	+16.6	9
2019-04-05	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	47.5	1370	1139	61.00%	18.08%	20.92%	+1.34	-16.6	13
2019-04-05	Llanelli Town	W 3-2	41.3	1093	859	72.83%	16.48%	10.69%	+2.51	+3.1	16
2019-04-05	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	41.3	859	1093	10.69%	16.48%	72.83%	-2.51	-3.1	1
2019-04-06	Barry Town United	L 2-5	46.8	1152	1192	44.78%	18.76%	36.46%	+0.24	-25.0	4
2019-04-06	@ Bala Town	W 5-2	46.8	1192	1152	36.46%	18.76%	44.78%	-0.24	+25.0	8
2019-04-06	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	45.8	1112	1220	35.25%	18.74%	46.00%	-0.32	+20.9	14
2019-04-06	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-3	45.8	1220	1112	46.00%	18.74%	35.25%	+0.32	-20.9	12
2019-04-06	Llandudno	W 2-0	33.0	1071	989	59.92%	18.17%	21.91%	+1.26	+12.8	9
2019-04-06	@ Carmarthen Town	L 0-2	33.0	989	1071	21.91%	18.17%	59.92%	-1.26	-12.8	8
2019-04-06	The New Saints	L 0-6	30.5	1211	1520	14.60%	17.31%	68.09%	-1.98	-24.4	7
2019-04-06	@ Newtown	W 6-0	30.5	1520	1211	68.09%	17.31%	14.60%	+1.98	+24.4	19
2019-04-12	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	49.9	1096	1133	45.23%	18.75%	36.02%	+0.27	-0.6	17
2019-04-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.9	1133	1096	36.02%	18.75%	45.23%	-0.27	+0.6	15
2019-04-12	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-4	36.6	1127	1354	21.42%	18.13%	60.46%	-1.30	-15.4	4
2019-04-12	@ Bala Town	W 4-1	36.6	1354	1127	60.46%	18.13%	21.42%	+1.30	+15.4	16
2019-04-12	Newtown	W 4-1	40.7	1155	1187	45.92%	18.74%	35.34%	+0.31	+23.8	12
2019-04-12	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-4	40.7	1187	1155	35.34%	18.74%	45.92%	-0.31	-23.8	7
2019-04-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	40.0	976	1199	21.78%	18.16%	60.06%	-1.27	-6.4	8
2019-04-13	@ Llandudno	W 2-1	40.0	1199	976	60.06%	18.16%	21.78%	+1.27	+6.4	15
2019-04-13	Llanelli Town	W 3-1	34.5	1084	856	72.44%	16.56%	11.00%	+2.46	+5.8	12
2019-04-13	@ Carmarthen Town	L 1-3	34.5	856	1084	11.00%	16.56%	72.44%	-2.46	-5.8	1
2019-04-13	The New Saints	L 0-4	30.3	1217	1544	13.37%	17.09%	69.54%	-2.13	-15.3	8
2019-04-13	@ Barry Town United	W 4-0	30.3	1544	1217	69.54%	17.09%	13.37%	+2.13	+15.3	22
2019-04-19	Bala Town	L 2-3	55.7	1163	1112	56.54%	18.39%	25.07%	+1.00	-13.8	7
2019-04-19	@ Newtown	W 3-2	55.7	1112	1163	25.07%	18.39%	56.54%	-1.00	+13.8	7
2019-04-20	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	34.5	1205	1095	62.80%	17.93%	19.27%	+1.49	+6.0	18
2019-04-20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	34.5	1095	1205	19.27%	17.93%	62.80%	-1.49	-6.0	17
2019-04-20	Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.9	1369	1202	67.89%	17.34%	14.77%	+1.96	-3.5	17
2019-04-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.9	1202	1369	14.77%	17.34%	67.89%	-1.96	+3.5	9
2019-04-20	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	34.5	1560	1179	80.70%	14.18%	5.12%	+3.73	+2.6	25
2019-04-20	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	34.5	1179	1560	5.12%	14.18%	80.70%	-3.73	-2.6	12
2019-04-20	Carmarthen Town	L 0-1	45.5	1133	1090	55.64%	18.44%	25.92%	+0.94	-15.2	15
2019-04-20	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	45.5	1090	1133	25.92%	18.44%	55.64%	-0.94	+15.2	15
2019-04-20	Llandudno	L 0-4	34.1	850	970	33.70%	18.71%	47.58%	-0.41	-35.4	1
2019-04-20	@ Llanelli Town	W 4-0	34.1	970	850	47.58%	18.71%	33.70%	+0.41	+35.4	11
2019-04-26	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-2	39.3	1105	1089	52.21%	18.59%	29.20%	+0.71	+22.2	18
2019-04-26	@ Carmarthen Town	L 2-6	39.3	1089	1105	29.20%	18.59%	52.21%	-0.71	-22.1	17
2019-04-26	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	40.4	1126	1176	43.32%	18.77%	37.90%	+0.16	+10.9	10
2019-04-26	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	40.4	1176	1126	37.90%	18.77%	43.32%	-0.16	-10.9	12
2019-04-26	Cefn Druids	L 0-5	34.3	1005	1118	34.58%	18.73%	46.69%	-0.36	-44.6	11
2019-04-26	@ Llandudno	W 5-0	34.3	1118	1005	46.69%	18.73%	34.58%	+0.36	+44.6	18
2019-04-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	39.5	1562	1365	70.25%	16.97%	12.78%	+2.21	+4.1	28
2019-04-26	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	39.5	1365	1562	12.78%	16.97%	70.25%	-2.21	-4.1	17
2019-04-26	Llanelli Town	W 3-2	38.8	1211	815	81.36%	13.91%	4.73%	+3.86	+1.3	21
2019-04-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	38.8	815	1211	4.73%	13.91%	81.36%	-3.86	-1.3	1
2019-04-26	Newtown	L 1-3	49.0	1206	1150	57.07%	18.36%	24.57%	+1.04	-25.4	9
2019-04-26	@ Barry Town United	W 3-1	49.0	1150	1206	24.57%	18.36%	57.07%	-1.04	+25.4	10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2018-11-09	7.22%	Caernarfon Town	1073	1	@ The New Saints	1386	0
2	2018-09-11	12.01%	Caernarfon Town	1081	1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1290	0
3	2019-01-12	14.65%	@ Carmarthen Town	1067	3	Connah's Quay Nomads	1375	2
4	2018-11-02	16.09%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1116	1	The New Saints	1404	0
5	2018-08-26	17.68%	Caernarfon Town	1078	1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1207	0
6	2018-09-30	19.18%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1148	4	The New Saints	1399	1
7	2018-08-18	19.59%	Llanelli Town	1046	3	@ Cefn Druids	1152	2
8	2018-10-06	19.81%	Llanelli Town	995	2	@ Llandudno	1099	1
9	2019-04-05	20.92%	@ Caernarfon Town	1139	1	Connah's Quay Nomads	1370	0
10	2018-11-17	22.57%	@ Llanelli Town	946	2	Cefn Druids	1161	0
11	2018-11-17	23.54%	Aberystwyth Town	1147	3	@ Bala Town	1213	2
12	2019-04-26	24.57%	Newtown	1150	3	@ Barry Town United	1206	1
13	2019-04-19	25.07%	Bala Town	1112	3	@ Newtown	1163	2
14	2018-09-16	25.32%	Llandudno	1124	1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1173	0
15	2019-04-20	25.92%	Carmarthen Town	1090	1	@ Cefn Druids	1133	0
16	2019-02-23	26.11%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1045	2	Cardiff Metropolitan	1227	0
17	2019-01-12	26.33%	Caernarfon Town	1154	3	@ Bala Town	1194	1
18	2019-03-16	27.60%	Bala Town	1156	2	@ Barry Town United	1185	0
19	2018-11-11	27.99%	Aberystwyth Town	1134	3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1159	2
20	2018-09-01	28.32%	@ Barry Town United	1156	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1318	0
21	2019-02-23	29.90%	Cefn Druids	1089	1	@ Carmarthen Town	1099	0
22	2018-10-27	31.30%	Barry Town United	1188	1	@ Bala Town	1187	0
23	2018-12-21	31.55%	Cefn Druids	1123	2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1120	0
24	2019-02-02	32.32%	@ Carmarthen Town	1083	1	Cardiff Metropolitan	1213	0
25	2018-10-20	32.65%	Aberystwyth Town	1086	1	@ Llandudno	1074	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-08-12	54.22	Connah's Quay Nomads	7	1249	51.46%	@ Llanelli Town	0	1100	29.93%	18.61%
2	2019-04-26	44.57	Cefn Druids	5	1118	46.69%	@ Llandudno	0	1005	34.58%	18.73%
3	2018-09-30	39.39	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1148	19.18%	The New Saints	1	1399	62.91%	17.92%
4	2018-12-14	38.29	@ Caernarfon Town	4	1114	44.18%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1158	37.05%	18.77%
5	2019-04-20	35.39	Llandudno	4	970	47.58%	@ Llanelli Town	0	850	33.70%	18.71%
6	2018-12-31	35.26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1127	34.96%	Barry Town United	0	1237	46.30%	18.74%
7	2019-03-23	34.95	@ Barry Town United	4	1157	48.10%	Caernarfon Town	0	1173	33.20%	18.70%
8	2018-09-15	33.09	@ Cefn Druids	4	1129	50.23%	Carmarthen Town	0	1129	31.12%	18.65%
9	2018-09-22	32.90	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1280	50.45%	@ Llandudno	0	1139	30.91%	18.64%
10	2018-09-08	32.82	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1096	38.68%	Newtown	0	1179	42.54%	18.78%
11	2018-10-19	32.39	Newtown	3	1172	39.37%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1111	41.85%	18.78%
12	2019-01-05	31.05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1162	41.48%	Bala Town	0	1226	39.74%	18.78%
13	2018-11-17	30.34	@ Llanelli Town	2	946	22.57%	Cefn Druids	0	1161	59.21%	18.22%
14	2019-02-23	28.53	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1045	26.11%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1227	55.45%	18.45%
15	2018-08-17	28.01	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1179	38.07%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1127	43.15%	18.77%
16	2019-03-16	27.79	Bala Town	2	1156	27.60%	@ Barry Town United	0	1185	53.89%	18.52%
17	2019-04-03	27.74	The New Saints	7	1492	68.40%	@ Bala Town	0	1180	14.34%	17.26%
18	2018-09-01	27.43	@ Barry Town United	2	1156	28.32%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1318	53.13%	18.55%
19	2018-12-22	27.06	Bala Town	7	1200	61.97%	@ Llanelli Town	1	959	20.03%	18.00%
20	2019-03-09	26.89	@ Newtown	3	1195	47.90%	Barry Town United	0	1212	33.40%	18.71%
21	2018-11-03	26.51	@ Bala Town	3	1173	48.47%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1186	32.84%	18.70%
22	2018-12-21	25.87	Cefn Druids	2	1123	31.55%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1120	49.79%	18.66%
23	2019-04-26	25.38	Newtown	3	1150	24.57%	@ Barry Town United	1	1206	57.07%	18.36%
24	2019-04-06	25.03	Barry Town United	5	1192	36.46%	@ Bala Town	2	1152	44.78%	18.76%
25	2018-09-01	24.80	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1071	33.84%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1190	47.44%	18.72%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-12-29	63.7	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1145	65.84%	Llandudno	3	1003	16.55%	17.60%
2	2019-02-16	61.2	@ The New Saints	2	1456	73.81%	Barry Town United	2	1207	9.92%	16.27%
3	2018-11-10	59.8	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1328	63.84%	Barry Town United	2	1207	18.34%	17.83%
4	2019-03-08	59.2	@ Cefn Druids	2	1103	62.37%	Llandudno	2	997	19.66%	17.97%
5	2018-10-05	59.1	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1111	42.34%	Bala Town	2	1168	38.88%	18.78%
6	2018-11-30	59.1	@ Cefn Druids	2	1130	40.82%	Bala Town	2	1198	40.40%	18.78%
7	2019-01-12	59.1	@ Carmarthen Town	3	1067	14.65%	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1375	68.04%	17.32%
8	2019-02-22	59.1	@ Bala Town	2	1170	46.98%	Newtown	2	1194	34.30%	18.73%
9	2018-09-22	59.0	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1096	49.01%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1105	32.30%	18.68%
10	2018-12-01	59.0	@ Llanelli Town	2	976	31.25%	Caernarfon Town	2	1115	50.10%	18.65%
11	2018-08-18	57.3	Llanelli Town	3	1046	19.59%	@ Cefn Druids	2	1152	62.45%	17.96%
12	2018-11-17	56.3	Aberystwyth Town	3	1147	23.54%	@ Bala Town	2	1213	58.17%	18.29%
13	2019-04-19	55.7	Bala Town	3	1112	25.07%	@ Newtown	2	1163	56.54%	18.39%
14	2018-11-11	54.9	Aberystwyth Town	3	1134	27.99%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1159	53.47%	18.54%
15	2018-12-01	54.9	@ The New Saints	1	1382	74.25%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1126	9.58%	16.16%
16	2019-04-20	54.9	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1369	67.89%	Barry Town United	1	1202	14.77%	17.34%
17	2018-10-27	54.8	@ Newtown	1	1205	23.95%	The New Saints	1	1406	57.73%	18.32%
18	2018-12-14	54.6	@ Bala Town	1	1198	26.43%	The New Saints	1	1377	55.11%	18.46%
19	2019-02-23	54.6	@ Barry Town United	1	1211	27.66%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1378	53.81%	18.52%
20	2018-11-21	54.3	@ Newtown	1	1221	35.74%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1325	45.51%	18.75%
21	2018-12-22	54.1	@ Newtown	1	1205	65.50%	Carmarthen Town	1	1066	16.85%	17.64%
22	2018-10-28	54.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1189	64.81%	Carmarthen Town	1	1058	17.47%	17.72%
23	2019-01-12	54.0	@ Newtown	1	1212	63.68%	Cefn Druids	1	1092	18.48%	17.84%
24	2018-11-30	53.9	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1161	60.64%	Carmarthen Town	1	1072	21.24%	18.11%
25	2018-09-28	53.8	@ Cefn Druids	1	1154	55.77%	Caernarfon Town	1	1109	25.80%	18.43%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2019-01-12	22.8	@ The New Saints	5	1438	85.22%	Llanelli Town	0	934	2.73%	12.05%
2	2018-11-03	24.9	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	6	1317	79.22%	Llanelli Town	0	970	6.05%	14.73%
3	2018-08-25	26.4	@ The New Saints	6	1352	74.84%	Carmarthen Town	0	1086	9.13%	16.02%
4	2018-09-11	26.4	@ The New Saints	6	1382	75.30%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1109	8.79%	15.91%
5	2018-12-01	26.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1325	76.52%	Llandudno	0	1030	7.90%	15.58%
6	2018-12-22	27.0	The New Saints	4	1375	71.92%	@ Llandudno	0	1016	11.41%	16.66%
7	2019-02-08	27.5	@ The New Saints	5	1441	73.32%	Newtown	0	1200	10.30%	16.38%
8	2018-12-26	27.6	@ The New Saints	7	1388	73.21%	Cefn Druids	0	1149	10.39%	16.40%
9	2019-02-16	27.7	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1216	71.80%	Llandudno	0	998	11.51%	16.69%
10	2019-03-08	27.8	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1198	68.36%	@ Llanelli Town	0	886	14.37%	17.27%
11	2018-12-14	28.3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1130	66.74%	Llanelli Town	0	977	15.77%	17.49%
12	2019-01-04	28.6	@ The New Saints	4	1423	70.24%	Newtown	0	1226	12.79%	16.97%
13	2018-11-10	28.7	@ Newtown	7	1207	73.73%	Llanelli Town	1	960	9.99%	16.29%
14	2018-10-17	29.0	@ The New Saints	6	1375	76.34%	Llandudno	1	1083	8.03%	15.63%
15	2018-09-14	29.7	The New Saints	2	1397	71.90%	@ Llanelli Town	0	1038	11.43%	16.67%
16	2019-04-03	30.0	The New Saints	7	1492	68.40%	@ Bala Town	0	1180	14.34%	17.26%
17	2018-08-31	30.1	The New Saints	3	1367	64.88%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1096	17.41%	17.71%
18	2018-10-06	30.1	The New Saints	3	1360	64.83%	@ Carmarthen Town	0	1089	17.45%	17.72%
19	2019-01-01	30.1	The New Saints	3	1409	65.63%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1129	16.74%	17.63%
20	2019-04-13	30.3	The New Saints	4	1544	69.54%	@ Barry Town United	0	1217	13.37%	17.09%
21	2019-02-10	30.5	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1200	62.61%	Cefn Druids	0	1092	19.44%	17.94%
22	2019-04-06	30.5	The New Saints	6	1520	68.09%	@ Newtown	0	1211	14.60%	17.31%
23	2019-02-25	30.9	The New Saints	3	1453	65.08%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1179	17.22%	17.69%
24	2018-12-22	31.0	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	6	1339	69.77%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1148	13.18%	17.05%
25	2019-01-01	31.4	@ Carmarthen Town	2	1068	65.17%	Llanelli Town	0	933	17.15%	17.68%