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2019-20 Cymru Premier Season

153 games

Final

Champion

Connah's Quay Nomads

56 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Connah's Quay Nomads

14.65 points above expected

56 points · 41.35 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Carmarthen Town

7.74 points below expected

18 points · 25.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 The New Saints 22 16 2 4 50 65 21 +44
2 Connah's Quay Nomads 22 13 7 2 46 39 17 +22
3 Bala Town 22 13 2 7 41 46 18 +28
4 Barry Town United 22 12 4 6 40 32 25 +7
5 Caernarfon Town 22 10 4 8 34 31 30 +1
6 Newtown 22 9 5 8 32 21 24 -3
7 Cardiff Metropolitan 22 8 7 7 31 26 25 +1
8 Cefn Druids 22 9 4 9 31 32 34 -2
9 Aberystwyth Town 22 6 5 11 23 28 46 -18
10 Penybont 22 3 6 13 15 25 46 -21
11 Airbus UK 22 3 4 15 13 19 57 -38
12 Carmarthen Town 22 2 6 14 12 24 45 -21
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Connah's Quay Nomads 26 16 8 2 56 47 19 +28 — —
2 The New Saints 26 16 4 6 52 69 27 +42 — —
3 Bala Town 26 15 4 7 49 53 23 +30 — —
4 Barry Town United 25 12 6 7 42 35 29 +6 — —
5 Caernarfon Town 26 11 5 10 38 36 38 -2 — —
6 Newtown 25 10 5 10 35 25 30 -5 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cardiff Metropolitan 25 9 8 8 35 30 29 +1 — —
2 Cefn Druids 25 10 5 10 35 37 39 -2 — —
3 Aberystwyth Town 26 7 6 13 27 36 55 -19 — —
4 Penybont 25 5 6 14 21 29 48 -19 — —
5 Carmarthen Town 25 4 6 15 18 28 49 -21 — —
6 Airbus UK 26 4 5 17 17 28 67 -39 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Connah's Quay Nomads 56 41.35 +14.65
2 Bala Town 49 34.56 +14.44
3 Barry Town United 42 31.73 +10.27
4 Cefn Druids 35 28.53 +6.47
5 Caernarfon Town 38 31.54 +6.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Carmarthen Town 18 25.74 -7.74
2 Penybont 21 23.83 -2.83
3 Airbus UK 17 16.47 +0.53
4 The New Saints 52 49.52 +2.48
5 Cardiff Metropolitan 35 32.20 +2.80

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Caernarfon Town 4 Sep 14 – Oct 4 1 in 68
2 Barry Town United 4 Sep 14 – Oct 5 1 in 64
3 Cefn Druids 4 Oct 18 – Nov 16 1 in 51
4 Bala Town 5 Nov 1 – Dec 17 1 in 16
5 Newtown 3 Nov 30 – Dec 21 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 The New Saints 2 Sep 28 – Oct 4 1 in 49
2 Caernarfon Town 4 Jan 10 – Feb 14 1 in 35
3 Cardiff Metropolitan 3 Nov 29 – Dec 14 1 in 28
4 Airbus UK 6 Oct 26 – Dec 13 1 in 23
5 Aberystwyth Town 4 Sep 7 – Sep 27 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Barry Town United 11 Aug 16 – Oct 26 1 in 117
2 Caernarfon Town 8 Aug 23 – Oct 4 1 in 68
3 Connah's Quay Nomads 16 Aug 17 – Nov 30 1 in 62
4 Cardiff Metropolitan 9 Aug 17 – Oct 12 1 in 50
5 Aberystwyth Town 5 Oct 4 – Nov 2 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Carmarthen Town 13 Aug 16 – Nov 2 1 in 130
2 Cardiff Metropolitan 6 Oct 5 – Nov 16 1 in 78
3 The New Saints 4 Feb 7 – Mar 6 1 in 50
4 Caernarfon Town 8 Dec 26 – Feb 22 1 in 35
5 Cefn Druids 7 Aug 26 – Oct 11 1 in 26

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Connah's Quay Nomads 1354 56 +21 10 7.6 +2.4
The New Saints 1420 52 -20 5 10.0 -5.0
Bala Town 1276 49 +3 8 7.4 +0.6
Barry Town United 1191 42 +10 5 5.9 -0.9
Caernarfon Town 1134 38 -16 4 5.2 -1.2
Cardiff Metropolitan 1161 35 +10 10 8.3 +1.7
Cefn Druids 1151 35 -6 7 8.3 -1.3
Newtown 1147 35 -14 4 5.7 -1.7
Aberystwyth Town 1067 27 -3 7 6.9 +0.1
Penybont 1068 21 +22 9 5.7 +3.3
Carmarthen Town 1053 18 -24 7 7.1 -0.1
Airbus UK 968 17 +11 5 3.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT AU BT BTU CT CM CT CD CQN NEW PEN TNS
Aberystwyth Town —
2-0-1
5.08
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
1.88
1-1-1
2.69
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
1.24
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-1
4.25
0-0-2
0.89
Airbus UK
1-0-2
3.23
 —
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
1.56
0-2-1
2.04
2-1-0
2.79
0-1-2
2.31
0-0-2
0.81
1-1-0
1.56
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
0.69
Bala Town
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
3.99
 —
0-2-0
2.64
3-0-0
5.10
0-0-2
3.15
2-0-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.39
0-1-2
3.27
2-0-1
4.82
2-0-0
3.54
1-1-1
2.05
Barry Town United
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.04
0-2-0
2.89
 —
0-2-1
4.80
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.12
0-0-3
2.75
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.18
1-1-1
1.82
Caernarfon Town
1-0-1
3.67
2-0-0
4.01
0-0-3
3.21
1-2-0
3.51
 —
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.55
0-1-1
3.01
0-1-2
2.51
2-0-1
4.35
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
1.18
Cardiff Metropolitan
1-1-1
5.64
1-2-0
6.35
2-0-0
2.39
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.78
 —
0-1-1
3.61
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.02
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-1
5.24
1-1-0
1.20
Carmarthen Town
0-1-1
3.08
0-1-2
5.53
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
1.99
1-1-0
1.94
 —
1-1-1
3.44
0-1-1
1.51
0-0-2
2.39
2-1-0
4.32
0-0-2
0.92
Cefn Druids
1-1-1
5.25
2-1-0
6.06
1-0-1
2.15
1-0-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.62
1-1-1
4.86
 —
1-0-1
1.65
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
3.34
0-0-2
1.15
Connah's Quay Nomads
1-1-0
4.37
2-0-0
4.87
2-1-0
5.04
3-0-0
5.58
2-1-0
5.84
1-1-0
3.53
1-1-0
4.07
1-0-1
3.91
 —
1-1-0
3.94
1-1-0
4.32
1-1-1
3.08
Newtown
1-1-0
3.64
0-1-1
4.02
1-0-2
3.49
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-2
3.95
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
2.93
0-1-1
1.63
 —
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-2
1.59
Penybont
1-1-1
4.05
2-0-0
3.41
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
2.36
0-1-1
1.99
1-1-1
3.08
0-1-2
3.98
1-0-1
2.20
0-1-1
1.28
0-1-1
2.25
 —
0-0-2
0.98
The New Saints
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
5.03
1-1-1
6.34
1-1-1
6.60
1-0-1
4.44
0-1-1
4.42
2-0-0
4.74
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-1
5.24
2-0-1
6.86
2-0-0
4.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.58 +7.7
Allowed 0.80 -8.1
Differential 0.91 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.23%9.80%3.59%1.96%1.63%1.31%23.53%
19.80%11.76%9.48%4.25%0.98%1.31%37.58%
23.59%9.48%4.58%3.27%0.33%0.65%21.90%
31.96%4.25%3.27%0.65%—0.33%10.46%
41.63%0.98%0.33%———2.94%
5+1.31%1.31%0.65%0.33%——3.59%
Total23.53%37.58%21.90%10.46%2.94%3.59%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.21
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 153

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%——3.85%26.92%
13.85%7.69%7.69%11.54%3.85%3.85%38.46%
2—7.69%7.69%3.85%——19.23%
33.85%—3.85%———7.69%
4———————
5+—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
Total15.38%26.92%26.92%19.23%3.85%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 2.12 -0.73
SD 1.39 2.05 2.52
CV 1.00 0.97 —
Max 5 10 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%3.85%—3.85%7.69%30.77%
13.85%11.54%11.54%7.69%—3.85%38.46%
23.85%3.85%3.85%7.69%—3.85%23.08%
3—3.85%———3.85%7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%30.77%19.23%15.38%3.85%19.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 2.58 -1.50
SD 0.93 2.55 2.77
CV 0.87 0.99 —
Max 3 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.38%————15.38%
13.85%7.69%11.54%———23.08%
23.85%19.23%7.69%———30.77%
311.54%3.85%————15.38%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total30.77%50.00%19.23%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 0.88 +1.15
SD 1.54 0.71 1.95
CV 0.75 0.80 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.00%12.00%4.00%—4.00%—24.00%
124.00%12.00%——8.00%—44.00%
24.00%4.00%8.00%———16.00%
34.00%4.00%4.00%———12.00%
4———————
5+—4.00%————4.00%
Total36.00%36.00%16.00%—12.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.16 +0.24
SD 1.50 1.28 2.05
CV 1.07 1.10 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%3.85%7.69%3.85%—30.77%
111.54%7.69%7.69%7.69%——34.62%
23.85%3.85%——3.85%—11.54%
3—3.85%11.54%———15.38%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total30.77%23.08%23.08%15.38%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.46 -0.08
SD 1.39 1.30 2.02
CV 1.00 0.89 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.00%4.00%4.00%——20.00%
112.00%24.00%12.00%———48.00%
24.00%12.00%8.00%———24.00%
3—8.00%————8.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.00%56.00%24.00%4.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.16 +0.04
SD 0.87 0.75 1.24
CV 0.72 0.64 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.00%20.00%4.00%4.00%——32.00%
14.00%8.00%16.00%4.00%—4.00%36.00%
2—4.00%8.00%4.00%—4.00%20.00%
34.00%—4.00%4.00%——12.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.00%32.00%32.00%16.00%—8.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.96 -0.84
SD 1.01 1.65 1.75
CV 0.90 0.84 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.00%12.00%—4.00%—4.00%24.00%
14.00%8.00%16.00%———28.00%
24.00%12.00%4.00%4.00%——24.00%
3—12.00%8.00%4.00%——24.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.00%44.00%28.00%12.00%—4.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.56 -0.08
SD 1.12 1.12 1.63
CV 0.76 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—3.85%———11.54%
119.23%19.23%3.85%———42.31%
23.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
3—7.69%————7.69%
411.54%3.85%3.85%———19.23%
5+———————
Total42.31%42.31%15.38%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.73 +1.08
SD 1.33 0.72 1.49
CV 0.73 0.99 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.00%8.00%8.00%—4.00%—32.00%
116.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%——40.00%
24.00%16.00%—4.00%——24.00%
3—4.00%————4.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total32.00%36.00%16.00%12.00%4.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.20 -0.20
SD 0.87 1.15 1.47
CV 0.87 0.96 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%—24.00%
14.00%16.00%12.00%8.00%—4.00%44.00%
24.00%4.00%—16.00%——24.00%
3—4.00%4.00%———8.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.00%28.00%20.00%28.00%4.00%4.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.92 -0.76
SD 0.90 1.44 1.67
CV 0.77 0.75 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 25

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.54%————11.54%
111.54%11.54%7.69%3.85%——34.62%
27.69%15.38%3.85%———26.92%
3——3.85%———3.85%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+7.69%3.85%7.69%———19.23%
Total26.92%46.15%23.08%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.65 1.04 +1.62
SD 2.97 0.82 3.15
CV 1.12 0.79 —
Max 12 3 +12
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
The New Saints 1420 52 49.52 +2.48 56.0% 34 38 47 50 53 57 62
Connah's Quay Nomads 1354 56 41.35 +14.65 83.0% 18 32 37 42 45 52 55
Bala Town 1276 49 34.56 +14.44 82.0% 20 23 30 35 40 44 49
Barry Town United 1191 42 31.73 +10.27 90.0% 17 20 28 31 36 42 45
Cardiff Metropolitan 1161 35 32.20 +2.80 43.0% 17 21 29 33 36 43 45
Cefn Druids 1151 35 28.53 +6.47 72.0% 15 19 24 29 32 37 41
Newtown 1147 35 29.02 +5.98 71.0% 16 19 24 29 33 39 42
Caernarfon Town 1134 38 31.54 +6.46 69.0% 21 23 27 31 36 41 43
Penybont 1068 21 23.83 -2.83 6.0% 6 11 20 24 27 33 35
Aberystwyth Town 1067 27 22.32 +4.68 63.0% 9 14 19 22 25 31 36
Carmarthen Town 1053 18 25.74 -7.74 0.0% 14 16 22 26 30 35 39
Airbus UK 968 17 16.47 +0.53 28.0% 2 8 13 16 19 26 30

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.58%
No Edge
41.18%22.22%36.60%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.91 Elo pts.
149 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
9%
Connah's Quay Nomads, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.15/gm
Tight Race
00.290.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.63 * Some Luck: 4.63 to 6.94 * Lucky: 6.94 to 9.26 * Wild Swing: 9.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.64 * Way Off: 2.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.01 points
Some Luck
05.7914
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.654
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
90.00%
Barry Town United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Carmarthen Town
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.180.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 132.33
1.90
Coin-Flip Parity
122.33
Interquartile Edge
69%
Even
50%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Slight Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.490.611
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.48
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.094
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Connah's Quay Nomads9.00%53.00%16.00%11.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%————1.00%
The New Saints83.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%———————
Bala Town3.00%14.00%23.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%3.00%—
Barry Town United2.00%8.00%10.00%19.00%11.00%17.00%9.00%6.00%8.00%7.00%3.00%—
Caernarfon Town—5.00%17.00%11.00%10.00%18.00%12.00%7.00%12.00%6.00%2.00%—
Cardiff Metropolitan3.00%6.00%12.00%20.00%15.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%7.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%
Cefn Druids—1.00%6.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%17.00%16.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%1.00%
Newtown—2.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%10.00%19.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%2.00%
Aberystwyth Town———2.00%2.00%4.00%7.00%8.00%19.00%19.00%23.00%16.00%
Penybont——1.00%2.00%7.00%4.00%9.00%12.00%20.00%23.00%15.00%7.00%
Carmarthen Town—2.00%—3.00%10.00%10.00%14.00%14.00%8.00%17.00%17.00%5.00%
Airbus UK——————2.00%3.00%7.00%5.00%16.00%67.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round
Aberystwyth Town 100%
Airbus UK 100%
Bala Town 100%
Barry Town United 100%
Caernarfon Town 100%
Cardiff Metropolitan 100%
Carmarthen Town 100%
Cefn Druids 100%
Connah's Quay Nomads 100%
Newtown 100%
Penybont 100%
The New Saints 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-08-16 Bala Town L 1-242.4 1026 1132 26.56% 22.90% 50.54%-0.61 -5.3 0
2019-08-16 @ Airbus UK W 2-142.4 1132 1026 50.54% 22.90% 26.56%+0.61 +5.3 3
2019-08-16 Barry Town United L 1-245.9 1137 1158 37.41% 23.56% 39.03%-0.04 -7.0 0
2019-08-16 @ Penybont W 2-145.9 1158 1137 39.03% 23.56% 37.41%+0.04 +7.0 3
2019-08-16 Carmarthen Town W 3-251.7 1087 1127 34.80% 23.52% 41.69%-0.16 +7.2 3
2019-08-16 @ Aberystwyth Town L 2-351.7 1127 1087 41.69% 23.52% 34.80%+0.16 -7.2 0
2019-08-16 Cefn Druids D 0-048.2 1156 1148 41.54% 23.52% 34.94%+0.16 -0.3 1
2019-08-16 @ Newtown D 0-048.2 1148 1156 34.94% 23.52% 41.54%-0.16 +0.3 1
2019-08-17 Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-152.7 1275 1180 53.15% 22.57% 24.28%+0.75 -1.2 1
2019-08-17 @ Connah's Quay Nomads D 1-152.7 1180 1275 24.28% 22.57% 53.15%-0.75 +1.2 1
2019-08-18 Caernarfon Town W 1-032.6 1415 1150 70.34% 18.10% 11.56%+1.89 +2.5 3
2019-08-18 @ The New Saints L 0-132.6 1150 1415 11.56% 18.10% 70.34%-1.89 -2.5 0
2019-08-23 Aberystwyth Town W 3-140.6 1165 1094 50.08% 22.95% 26.96%+0.58 +9.3 6
2019-08-23 @ Barry Town United L 1-340.6 1094 1165 26.96% 22.95% 50.08%-0.58 -9.3 3
2019-08-23 Airbus UK W 3-138.5 1148 1020 56.96% 21.94% 21.10%+0.97 +7.5 4
2019-08-23 @ Cefn Druids L 1-338.5 1020 1148 21.10% 21.94% 56.96%-0.97 -7.5 0
2019-08-23 Cardiff Metropolitan L 1-342.7 1130 1181 33.34% 23.46% 43.19%-0.24 -11.1 0
2019-08-23 @ Penybont W 3-142.7 1181 1130 43.19% 23.46% 33.34%+0.24 +11.1 4
2019-08-23 Connah's Quay Nomads D 0-048.7 1147 1274 24.33% 22.58% 53.09%-0.75 +1.3 1
2019-08-23 @ Caernarfon Town D 0-048.7 1274 1147 53.09% 22.58% 24.33%+0.75 -1.3 2
2019-08-23 Newtown L 1-245.3 1120 1155 35.52% 23.53% 40.95%-0.13 -6.7 0
2019-08-23 @ Carmarthen Town W 2-145.3 1155 1120 40.95% 23.53% 35.52%+0.13 +6.7 4
2019-08-23 The New Saints W 3-152.5 1137 1417 12.46% 18.65% 68.89%-1.77 +20.2 6
2019-08-23 @ Bala Town L 1-352.5 1417 1137 68.89% 18.65% 12.46%+1.77 -20.2 3
2019-08-26 Airbus UK W 1-034.3 1192 1013 62.42% 20.69% 16.89%+1.31 +3.7 7
2019-08-26 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 0-134.3 1013 1192 16.89% 20.69% 62.42%-1.31 -3.7 0
2019-08-26 Bala Town D 2-257.0 1175 1158 42.90% 23.47% 33.63%+0.22 -0.3 7
2019-08-26 @ Barry Town United D 2-257.0 1158 1175 33.63% 23.47% 42.90%-0.22 +0.3 7
2019-08-26 Carmarthen Town D 1-152.9 1273 1114 60.37% 21.21% 18.42%+1.18 -1.8 3
2019-08-26 @ Connah's Quay Nomads D 1-152.9 1114 1273 18.42% 21.21% 60.37%-1.18 +1.8 1
2019-08-26 Cefn Druids D 1-152.1 1148 1156 39.43% 23.56% 37.01%+0.06 -0.1 2
2019-08-26 @ Caernarfon Town D 1-152.1 1156 1148 37.01% 23.56% 39.43%-0.06 +0.1 5
2019-08-26 Penybont D 1-152.2 1162 1119 46.47% 23.28% 30.25%+0.40 -0.7 5
2019-08-26 @ Newtown D 1-152.2 1119 1162 30.25% 23.28% 46.47%-0.40 +0.7 1
2019-08-26 The New Saints L 1-1028.9 1085 1397 10.81% 17.61% 71.58%-1.99 -14.7 3
2019-08-26 @ Aberystwyth Town W 10-128.9 1397 1085 71.58% 17.61% 10.81%+1.99 +14.7 6
2019-08-30 Aberystwyth Town L 1-250.0 1156 1070 51.93% 22.73% 25.33%+0.68 -9.1 5
2019-08-30 @ Cefn Druids W 2-150.0 1070 1156 25.33% 22.73% 51.93%-0.68 +9.1 6
2019-08-30 Barry Town United L 0-139.7 1115 1174 32.29% 23.41% 44.29%-0.29 -6.6 1
2019-08-30 @ Carmarthen Town W 1-039.7 1174 1115 44.29% 23.41% 32.29%+0.29 +6.6 10
2019-08-30 Caernarfon Town L 2-345.7 1009 1148 23.08% 22.35% 54.57%-0.83 -4.5 0
2019-08-30 @ Airbus UK W 3-245.7 1148 1009 54.57% 22.35% 23.08%+0.83 +4.4 5
2019-08-30 Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-137.8 1158 1271 25.81% 22.80% 51.38%-0.65 -5.5 7
2019-08-30 @ Bala Town W 1-037.8 1271 1158 51.38% 22.80% 25.81%+0.65 +5.5 6
2019-08-30 Newtown W 1-039.5 1196 1161 45.26% 23.36% 31.38%+0.34 +6.5 10
2019-08-30 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 0-139.5 1161 1196 31.38% 23.36% 45.26%-0.34 -6.5 5
2019-08-31 Penybont W 2-136.3 1412 1119 72.56% 17.20% 10.24%+2.07 +2.1 9
2019-08-31 @ The New Saints L 1-236.3 1119 1412 10.24% 17.20% 72.56%-2.07 -2.1 1
2019-09-07 Airbus UK L 1-249.6 1080 1005 50.57% 22.90% 26.53%+0.61 -8.9 6
2019-09-07 @ Aberystwyth Town W 2-149.6 1005 1080 26.53% 22.90% 50.57%-0.61 +8.9 3
2019-09-07 Bala Town L 1-638.9 1117 1152 35.52% 23.53% 40.95%-0.13 -26.0 1
2019-09-07 @ Penybont W 6-138.9 1152 1117 40.95% 23.53% 35.52%+0.13 +26.1 10
2019-09-07 Caernarfon Town D 0-048.3 1181 1153 44.42% 23.40% 32.17%+0.30 -0.5 11
2019-09-07 @ Barry Town United D 0-048.3 1153 1181 32.17% 23.40% 44.42%-0.30 +0.6 6
2019-09-07 Cardiff Metropolitan D 2-257.1 1109 1202 28.04% 23.08% 48.88%-0.52 +0.6 2
2019-09-07 @ Carmarthen Town D 2-257.1 1202 1109 48.88% 23.08% 28.04%+0.52 -0.6 11
2019-09-10 Cefn Druids W 1-036.1 1276 1147 57.12% 21.91% 20.98%+0.98 +4.6 9
2019-09-10 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-136.1 1147 1276 20.98% 21.91% 57.12%-0.98 -4.6 5
2019-09-10 Newtown W 2-137.3 1414 1155 69.82% 18.30% 11.88%+1.84 +2.4 12
2019-09-10 @ The New Saints L 1-237.3 1155 1414 11.88% 18.30% 69.82%-1.84 -2.4 5
2019-09-13 Aberystwyth Town W 4-134.2 1281 1071 65.48% 19.80% 14.71%+1.52 +7.5 12
2019-09-13 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-434.2 1071 1281 14.71% 19.80% 65.48%-1.52 -7.5 6
2019-09-14 Bala Town W 1-042.0 1152 1178 36.79% 23.56% 39.65%-0.07 +7.8 8
2019-09-14 @ Newtown L 0-142.0 1178 1152 39.65% 23.56% 36.79%+0.07 -7.8 10
2019-09-14 Barry Town United L 0-135.7 1014 1180 20.48% 21.78% 57.74%-1.01 -4.5 3
2019-09-14 @ Airbus UK W 1-035.7 1180 1014 57.74% 21.78% 20.48%+1.01 +4.5 14
2019-09-14 Carmarthen Town D 3-360.8 1142 1109 45.08% 23.37% 31.55%+0.33 -0.3 6
2019-09-14 @ Cefn Druids D 3-360.8 1109 1142 31.55% 23.37% 45.08%-0.33 +0.3 3
2019-09-14 Penybont W 3-247.5 1153 1091 48.95% 23.07% 27.98%+0.52 +5.3 9
2019-09-14 @ Caernarfon Town L 2-347.5 1091 1153 27.98% 23.07% 48.95%-0.52 -5.3 1
2019-09-16 The New Saints D 1-154.0 1201 1416 16.62% 20.59% 62.79%-1.33 +2.0 12
2019-09-16 @ Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-154.0 1416 1201 62.79% 20.59% 16.62%+1.33 -2.0 13
2019-09-20 Caernarfon Town L 2-347.4 1063 1159 27.80% 23.05% 49.15%-0.53 -5.2 6
2019-09-20 @ Aberystwyth Town W 3-247.4 1159 1063 49.15% 23.05% 27.80%+0.53 +5.2 12
2019-09-20 Connah's Quay Nomads D 1-152.6 1160 1288 24.20% 22.56% 53.24%-0.75 +1.2 9
2019-09-20 @ Newtown D 1-152.6 1288 1160 53.24% 22.56% 24.20%+0.75 -1.2 13
2019-09-21 Airbus UK W 3-140.3 1086 1009 50.82% 22.87% 26.31%+0.62 +9.1 4
2019-09-21 @ Penybont L 1-340.3 1009 1086 26.31% 22.87% 50.82%-0.62 -9.1 3
2019-09-21 Cardiff Metropolitan L 1-245.5 1171 1204 35.82% 23.54% 40.64%-0.11 -6.8 10
2019-09-21 @ Bala Town W 2-145.5 1204 1171 40.64% 23.54% 35.82%+0.11 +6.8 15
2019-09-21 The New Saints L 2-633.5 1110 1414 11.18% 17.85% 70.97%-1.94 -6.1 3
2019-09-21 @ Carmarthen Town W 6-233.5 1414 1110 70.97% 17.85% 11.18%+1.94 +6.1 16
2019-09-22 Cefn Druids W 1-039.1 1185 1142 46.42% 23.28% 30.30%+0.39 +6.3 17
2019-09-22 @ Barry Town United L 0-139.1 1142 1185 30.30% 23.28% 46.42%-0.39 -6.3 6
2019-09-27 Aberystwyth Town W 2-034.5 1164 1058 54.39% 22.38% 23.23%+0.82 +9.4 13
2019-09-27 @ Bala Town L 0-234.5 1058 1164 23.23% 22.38% 54.39%-0.82 -9.4 6
2019-09-27 Newtown W 1-040.8 1164 1161 40.84% 23.54% 35.63%+0.12 +7.1 15
2019-09-27 @ Caernarfon Town L 0-140.8 1161 1164 35.63% 23.54% 40.84%-0.12 -7.2 9
2019-09-28 Barry Town United L 0-149.9 1420 1191 67.20% 19.24% 13.56%+1.64 -12.1 16
2019-09-28 @ The New Saints W 1-049.9 1191 1420 13.56% 19.24% 67.20%-1.64 +12.1 20
2019-09-28 Carmarthen Town W 1-044.9 1000 1104 26.88% 22.94% 50.18%-0.59 +9.4 6
2019-09-28 @ Airbus UK L 0-144.9 1104 1000 50.18% 22.94% 26.88%+0.59 -9.4 3
2019-09-29 Penybont W 3-136.6 1287 1095 63.72% 20.33% 15.95%+1.40 +5.7 16
2019-09-29 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-336.6 1095 1287 15.95% 20.33% 63.72%-1.40 -5.7 4
2019-10-04 Aberystwyth Town D 1-152.1 1089 1048 46.15% 23.30% 30.55%+0.38 -0.6 5
2019-10-04 @ Penybont D 1-152.1 1048 1089 30.55% 23.30% 46.15%-0.38 +0.6 7
2019-10-04 Bala Town L 0-336.8 1136 1173 35.17% 23.53% 41.31%-0.15 -19.4 6
2019-10-04 @ Cefn Druids W 3-036.8 1173 1136 41.31% 23.53% 35.17%+0.15 +19.4 16
2019-10-04 The New Saints W 1-049.2 1171 1408 15.06% 19.96% 64.99%-1.48 +11.8 18
2019-10-04 @ Caernarfon Town L 0-149.2 1408 1171 64.99% 19.96% 15.06%+1.48 -11.8 16
2019-10-05 Barry Town United L 2-349.4 1154 1203 33.61% 23.47% 42.91%-0.22 -6.1 9
2019-10-05 @ Newtown W 3-249.4 1203 1154 42.91% 23.47% 33.61%+0.22 +6.1 23
2019-10-05 Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-152.9 1009 1210 17.65% 20.96% 61.39%-1.24 +1.9 7
2019-10-05 @ Airbus UK D 1-152.9 1210 1009 61.39% 20.96% 17.65%+1.24 -1.9 16
2019-10-05 Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-239.4 1094 1293 17.81% 21.01% 61.18%-1.23 -3.7 3
2019-10-05 @ Carmarthen Town W 2-139.4 1293 1094 61.18% 21.01% 17.81%+1.23 +3.7 19
2019-10-11 Newtown L 1-245.5 1116 1148 35.96% 23.54% 40.50%-0.11 -6.8 6
2019-10-11 @ Cefn Druids W 2-145.5 1148 1116 40.50% 23.54% 35.96%+0.11 +6.8 12
2019-10-12 Airbus UK W 6-230.7 1396 1011 79.19% 14.07% 6.74%+2.69 +3.5 19
2019-10-12 @ The New Saints L 2-630.7 1011 1396 6.74% 14.07% 79.19%-2.69 -3.5 7
2019-10-12 Cardiff Metropolitan D 2-257.4 1049 1208 21.16% 21.95% 56.89%-0.96 +1.1 8
2019-10-12 @ Aberystwyth Town D 2-257.4 1208 1049 56.89% 21.95% 21.16%+0.96 -1.1 17
2019-10-12 Carmarthen Town W 2-141.4 1193 1090 53.94% 22.45% 23.61%+0.79 +4.8 19
2019-10-12 @ Bala Town L 1-241.4 1090 1193 23.61% 22.45% 53.94%-0.79 -4.8 3
2019-10-15 Caernarfon Town W 4-243.2 1297 1183 55.31% 22.23% 22.46%+0.87 +7.1 22
2019-10-15 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 2-443.2 1183 1297 22.46% 22.23% 55.31%-0.87 -7.1 18
2019-10-18 Aberystwyth Town D 0-048.2 1086 1050 45.42% 23.35% 31.24%+0.34 -0.6 4
2019-10-18 @ Carmarthen Town D 0-048.2 1050 1086 31.24% 23.35% 45.42%-0.34 +0.6 9
2019-10-18 Caernarfon Town W 3-146.2 1110 1176 31.38% 23.36% 45.27%-0.34 +14.1 9
2019-10-18 @ Cefn Druids L 1-346.2 1176 1110 45.27% 23.36% 31.38%+0.34 -14.1 18
2019-10-19 Barry Town United D 1-152.3 1197 1209 38.78% 23.56% 37.65%+0.03 -0.0 20
2019-10-19 @ Bala Town D 1-152.3 1209 1197 37.65% 23.56% 38.78%-0.03 +0.0 24
2019-10-19 Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-138.6 1207 1304 27.69% 23.04% 49.27%-0.54 -5.8 17
2019-10-19 @ Cardiff Metropolitan W 1-038.6 1304 1207 49.27% 23.04% 27.69%+0.54 +5.8 25
2019-10-19 Newtown W 2-044.1 1008 1155 22.31% 22.20% 55.48%-0.88 +19.4 10
2019-10-19 @ Airbus UK L 0-244.1 1155 1008 55.48% 22.20% 22.31%+0.88 -19.4 12
2019-10-19 The New Saints L 2-341.0 1089 1400 10.85% 17.63% 71.51%-1.98 -2.1 5
2019-10-19 @ Penybont W 3-241.0 1400 1089 71.51% 17.63% 10.85%+1.98 +2.1 22
2019-10-25 Bala Town W 1-034.4 1402 1197 64.91% 19.98% 15.11%+1.48 +3.3 25
2019-10-25 @ The New Saints L 0-134.4 1197 1402 15.11% 19.98% 64.91%-1.48 -3.3 20
2019-10-25 Cardiff Metropolitan W 1-043.6 1136 1201 31.43% 23.36% 45.21%-0.33 +8.6 15
2019-10-25 @ Newtown L 0-143.6 1201 1136 45.21% 23.36% 31.43%+0.33 -8.6 17
2019-10-25 Connah's Quay Nomads D 1-153.5 1051 1310 13.68% 19.31% 67.01%-1.63 +2.4 10
2019-10-25 @ Aberystwyth Town D 1-153.5 1310 1051 67.01% 19.31% 13.68%+1.63 -2.4 26
2019-10-26 Airbus UK W 2-032.0 1209 1027 62.74% 20.61% 16.66%+1.33 +6.9 27
2019-10-26 @ Barry Town United L 0-232.0 1027 1209 16.66% 20.61% 62.74%-1.33 -6.9 10
2019-10-26 Carmarthen Town W 2-035.6 1162 1085 50.79% 22.87% 26.33%+0.62 +10.5 21
2019-10-26 @ Caernarfon Town L 0-235.6 1085 1162 26.33% 22.87% 50.79%-0.62 -10.5 4
2019-10-27 Cefn Druids L 2-349.8 1087 1124 35.25% 23.53% 41.22%-0.14 -6.3 5
2019-10-27 @ Penybont W 3-249.8 1124 1087 41.22% 23.53% 35.25%+0.14 +6.3 12
2019-11-01 Newtown W 4-034.2 1194 1144 47.34% 23.21% 29.44%+0.44 +22.0 23
2019-11-01 @ Bala Town L 0-434.2 1144 1194 29.44% 23.21% 47.34%-0.44 -22.0 15
2019-11-01 Penybont D 1-152.5 1193 1080 55.16% 22.26% 22.58%+0.86 -1.4 18
2019-11-01 @ Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-152.5 1080 1193 22.58% 22.26% 55.16%-0.86 +1.4 6
2019-11-01 The New Saints D 1-154.3 1307 1405 27.52% 23.02% 49.46%-0.55 +0.9 27
2019-11-01 @ Connah's Quay Nomads D 1-154.3 1405 1307 49.46% 23.02% 27.52%+0.55 -0.9 26
2019-11-02 Aberystwyth Town L 1-540.0 1020 1053 35.82% 23.54% 40.64%-0.11 -21.4 10
2019-11-02 @ Airbus UK W 5-140.0 1053 1020 40.64% 23.54% 35.82%+0.11 +21.4 13
2019-11-02 Barry Town United W 4-143.6 1172 1216 34.26% 23.50% 42.24%-0.19 +18.8 24
2019-11-02 @ Caernarfon Town L 1-443.6 1216 1172 42.24% 23.50% 34.26%+0.19 -18.9 27
2019-11-02 Cefn Druids L 1-244.4 1075 1130 32.77% 23.44% 43.80%-0.27 -6.3 4
2019-11-02 @ Carmarthen Town W 2-144.4 1130 1075 43.80% 23.44% 32.77%+0.27 +6.3 15
2019-11-08 Bala Town L 0-531.8 1075 1216 22.86% 22.31% 54.82%-0.84 -21.8 13
2019-11-08 @ Aberystwyth Town W 5-031.8 1216 1075 54.82% 22.31% 22.86%+0.84 +21.8 26
2019-11-08 Caernarfon Town W 3-146.4 1122 1191 31.05% 23.34% 45.61%-0.35 +14.2 18
2019-11-08 @ Newtown L 1-346.4 1191 1122 45.61% 23.34% 31.05%+0.35 -14.2 24
2019-11-09 Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-433.5 1198 1308 26.09% 22.84% 51.07%-0.64 -19.8 27
2019-11-09 @ Barry Town United W 4-033.5 1308 1198 51.07% 22.84% 26.09%+0.64 +19.8 30
2019-11-09 Penybont L 1-243.3 999 1082 29.32% 23.20% 47.48%-0.45 -5.8 10
2019-11-09 @ Airbus UK W 2-143.3 1082 999 47.48% 23.20% 29.32%+0.45 +5.8 9
2019-11-15 Aberystwyth Town W 2-028.0 1404 1053 76.95% 15.20% 7.85%+2.46 +3.1 29
2019-11-15 @ The New Saints L 0-228.0 1053 1404 7.85% 15.20% 76.95%-2.46 -3.1 13
2019-11-15 Airbus UK W 1-032.4 1238 993 68.60% 18.75% 12.65%+1.75 +2.8 29
2019-11-15 @ Bala Town L 0-132.4 993 1238 12.65% 18.75% 68.60%-1.75 -2.8 10
2019-11-15 Newtown W 3-136.8 1328 1136 63.66% 20.35% 15.99%+1.39 +5.7 33
2019-11-15 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-336.8 1136 1328 15.99% 20.35% 63.66%-1.39 -5.7 18
2019-11-16 Barry Town United W 1-042.7 1136 1178 34.64% 23.51% 41.85%-0.17 +8.1 18
2019-11-16 @ Cefn Druids L 0-142.7 1178 1136 41.85% 23.51% 34.64%+0.17 -8.1 27
2019-11-16 Carmarthen Town L 0-342.7 1191 1068 56.40% 22.04% 21.56%+0.93 -28.5 18
2019-11-16 @ Cardiff Metropolitan W 3-042.7 1068 1191 21.56% 22.04% 56.40%-0.93 +28.5 7
2019-11-22 Penybont W 3-033.7 1170 1087 51.49% 22.79% 25.72%+0.66 +15.0 30
2019-11-22 @ Barry Town United L 0-333.7 1087 1170 25.72% 22.79% 51.49%-0.66 -15.0 9
2019-11-23 Cefn Druids W 2-144.7 1163 1144 43.08% 23.47% 33.45%+0.23 +6.4 21
2019-11-23 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 1-244.7 1144 1163 33.45% 23.47% 43.08%-0.23 -6.4 18
2019-11-29 Cardiff Metropolitan W 2-145.2 1177 1169 41.56% 23.52% 34.92%+0.16 +6.6 27
2019-11-29 @ Caernarfon Town L 1-245.2 1169 1177 34.92% 23.52% 41.56%-0.16 -6.6 21
2019-11-29 Cefn Druids L 1-341.2 1050 1138 28.66% 23.14% 48.20%-0.49 -9.8 13
2019-11-29 @ Aberystwyth Town W 3-141.2 1138 1050 48.20% 23.14% 28.66%+0.49 +9.8 21
2019-11-30 Bala Town L 0-332.7 1097 1241 22.63% 22.27% 55.10%-0.86 -13.4 7
2019-11-30 @ Carmarthen Town W 3-032.7 1241 1097 55.10% 22.27% 22.63%+0.86 +13.4 32
2019-11-30 Connah's Quay Nomads D 0-049.6 1072 1334 13.53% 19.23% 67.24%-1.65 +2.6 10
2019-11-30 @ Penybont D 0-049.6 1334 1072 67.24% 19.23% 13.53%+1.65 -2.7 34
2019-11-30 Newtown L 0-144.4 1185 1131 47.87% 23.17% 28.96%+0.47 -9.0 30
2019-11-30 @ Barry Town United W 1-044.4 1131 1185 28.96% 23.17% 47.87%-0.47 +9.0 21
2019-11-30 The New Saints L 0-1226.3 990 1407 6.73% 14.07% 79.20%-2.69 -13.9 10
2019-11-30 @ Airbus UK W 12-026.3 1407 990 79.20% 14.07% 6.73%+2.69 +13.9 32
2019-12-03 Cardiff Metropolitan W 2-146.1 1148 1163 38.37% 23.56% 38.07%+0.01 +7.1 24
2019-12-03 @ Cefn Druids L 1-246.1 1163 1148 38.07% 23.56% 38.37%-0.01 -7.1 21
2019-12-03 Carmarthen Town W 1-030.6 1421 1083 75.99% 15.66% 8.35%+2.37 +1.8 35
2019-12-03 @ The New Saints L 0-130.6 1083 1421 8.35% 15.66% 75.99%-2.37 -1.7 7
2019-12-13 Airbus UK W 5-028.7 1183 977 65.15% 19.91% 14.94%+1.50 +14.5 30
2019-12-13 @ Caernarfon Town L 0-528.7 977 1183 14.94% 19.91% 65.15%-1.50 -14.4 10
2019-12-13 Connah's Quay Nomads W 2-045.2 1155 1331 19.67% 21.57% 58.76%-1.08 +20.4 27
2019-12-13 @ Cefn Druids L 0-245.2 1331 1155 58.76% 21.57% 19.67%+1.08 -20.4 34
2019-12-13 The New Saints L 1-434.8 1176 1423 14.38% 19.65% 65.96%-1.55 -7.3 30
2019-12-13 @ Barry Town United W 4-134.8 1423 1176 65.96% 19.65% 14.38%+1.55 +7.3 38
2019-12-14 Aberystwyth Town L 1-250.9 1156 1040 55.52% 22.20% 22.29%+0.88 -9.7 21
2019-12-14 @ Cardiff Metropolitan W 2-150.9 1040 1156 22.29% 22.20% 55.52%-0.88 +9.7 16
2019-12-14 Carmarthen Town W 1-038.5 1140 1082 48.43% 23.12% 28.45%+0.50 +6.0 24
2019-12-14 @ Newtown L 0-138.5 1082 1140 28.45% 23.12% 48.43%-0.50 -6.0 7
2019-12-17 Penybont W 4-029.7 1254 1075 62.40% 20.70% 16.90%+1.31 +13.3 35
2019-12-17 @ Bala Town L 0-429.7 1075 1254 16.90% 20.70% 62.40%-1.31 -13.3 10
2019-12-20 Bala Town W 2-144.4 1311 1267 46.48% 23.28% 30.24%+0.40 +5.9 37
2019-12-20 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-244.4 1267 1311 30.24% 23.28% 46.48%-0.40 -5.9 35
2019-12-20 Barry Town United L 0-137.4 1050 1168 25.22% 22.72% 52.06%-0.69 -5.4 16
2019-12-20 @ Aberystwyth Town W 1-037.4 1168 1050 52.06% 22.72% 25.22%+0.69 +5.4 33
2019-12-20 Cardiff Metropolitan L 1-255.1 1430 1146 71.93% 17.46% 10.61%+2.02 -12.1 38
2019-12-20 @ The New Saints W 2-155.1 1146 1430 10.61% 17.46% 71.93%-2.02 +12.1 24
2019-12-21 Caernarfon Town L 0-137.3 1076 1198 24.82% 22.66% 52.52%-0.71 -5.3 7
2019-12-21 @ Carmarthen Town W 1-037.3 1198 1076 52.52% 22.66% 24.82%+0.71 +5.3 33
2019-12-21 Cefn Druids D 1-152.9 962 1175 16.72% 20.63% 62.65%-1.32 +2.0 11
2019-12-21 @ Airbus UK D 1-152.9 1175 962 62.65% 20.63% 16.72%+1.32 -2.0 28
2019-12-21 Newtown L 0-236.5 1062 1146 29.18% 23.19% 47.64%-0.46 -11.5 10
2019-12-21 @ Penybont W 2-036.5 1146 1062 47.64% 23.19% 29.18%+0.46 +11.5 27
2019-12-26 Aberystwyth Town D 0-048.5 1157 1044 55.21% 22.25% 22.54%+0.86 -1.5 28
2019-12-26 @ Newtown D 0-048.5 1044 1157 22.54% 22.25% 55.21%-0.86 +1.5 17
2019-12-26 Airbus UK W 2-134.5 1317 964 77.02% 15.16% 7.81%+2.47 +1.5 40
2019-12-26 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 1-234.5 964 1317 7.81% 15.16% 77.02%-2.47 -1.5 11
2019-12-26 Bala Town L 1-244.6 1203 1261 32.42% 23.42% 44.16%-0.28 -6.3 33
2019-12-26 @ Caernarfon Town W 2-144.6 1261 1203 44.16% 23.42% 32.42%+0.28 +6.2 38
2019-12-26 Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-152.2 1174 1158 42.70% 23.48% 33.82%+0.21 -0.4 34
2019-12-26 @ Barry Town United D 1-152.2 1158 1174 33.82% 23.48% 42.70%-0.21 +0.3 25
2019-12-26 Penybont W 3-249.1 1070 1050 43.30% 23.46% 33.25%+0.24 +6.1 10
2019-12-26 @ Carmarthen Town L 2-349.1 1050 1070 33.25% 23.46% 43.30%-0.24 -6.1 10
2019-12-26 The New Saints L 0-529.3 1173 1418 14.55% 19.73% 65.73%-1.54 -14.1 28
2019-12-26 @ Cefn Druids W 5-029.3 1418 1173 65.73% 19.73% 14.55%+1.54 +14.1 41
2019-12-30 Barry Town United L 0-141.6 1158 1173 38.35% 23.56% 38.09%+0.01 -7.6 25
2019-12-30 @ Cardiff Metropolitan W 1-041.6 1173 1158 38.09% 23.56% 38.35%-0.01 +7.6 37
2019-12-30 Caernarfon Town W 3-034.4 1268 1197 50.04% 22.96% 27.00%+0.58 +15.6 41
2019-12-30 @ Bala Town L 0-334.4 1197 1268 27.00% 22.96% 50.04%-0.58 -15.6 33
2019-12-30 Cefn Druids W 2-137.1 1432 1159 71.00% 17.84% 11.16%+1.94 +2.3 44
2019-12-30 @ The New Saints L 1-237.1 1159 1432 11.16% 17.84% 71.00%-1.94 -2.3 28
2019-12-30 Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-425.9 963 1318 8.89% 16.14% 74.97%-2.28 -6.7 11
2019-12-30 @ Airbus UK W 4-025.9 1318 963 74.97% 16.14% 8.89%+2.28 +6.7 43
2019-12-30 Newtown L 1-242.3 1046 1156 26.17% 22.85% 50.97%-0.63 -5.2 17
2019-12-30 @ Aberystwyth Town W 2-142.3 1156 1046 50.97% 22.85% 26.17%+0.63 +5.2 31
2020-01-01 Carmarthen Town D 1-152.1 1044 1076 35.92% 23.54% 40.53%-0.11 +0.2 11
2020-01-01 @ Penybont D 1-152.1 1076 1044 40.53% 23.54% 35.92%+0.11 -0.2 11
2020-01-04 Caernarfon Town D 0-048.5 1044 1181 23.32% 22.40% 54.28%-0.81 +1.5 12
2020-01-04 @ Penybont D 0-048.5 1181 1044 54.28% 22.40% 23.32%+0.81 -1.5 34
2020-01-10 Aberystwyth Town L 0-343.1 1180 1041 58.21% 21.69% 20.10%+1.04 -29.3 34
2020-01-10 @ Caernarfon Town W 3-043.1 1041 1180 20.10% 21.69% 58.21%-1.04 +29.4 20
2020-01-10 The New Saints L 0-231.1 1161 1434 12.82% 18.85% 68.34%-1.73 -5.3 31
2020-01-10 @ Newtown W 2-031.1 1434 1161 68.34% 18.85% 12.82%+1.73 +5.3 47
2020-01-11 Airbus UK D 2-257.3 1076 956 56.07% 22.10% 21.83%+0.91 -1.1 12
2020-01-11 @ Carmarthen Town D 2-257.3 956 1076 21.83% 22.10% 56.07%-0.91 +1.1 12
2020-01-11 Bala Town W 1-046.1 1151 1283 23.76% 22.48% 53.76%-0.78 +10.0 28
2020-01-11 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 0-146.1 1283 1151 53.76% 22.48% 23.76%+0.78 -10.0 41
2020-01-11 Barry Town United W 2-033.6 1325 1181 58.72% 21.58% 19.70%+1.07 +8.1 46
2020-01-11 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-233.6 1181 1325 19.70% 21.58% 58.72%-1.07 -8.1 37
2020-01-11 Penybont L 2-355.3 1157 1046 54.98% 22.29% 22.73%+0.85 -9.1 28
2020-01-11 @ Cefn Druids W 3-255.3 1046 1157 22.73% 22.29% 54.98%-0.85 +9.1 15
2020-01-18 Airbus UK D 0-049.2 1156 957 64.36% 20.15% 15.49%+1.44 -2.4 32
2020-01-18 @ Newtown D 0-049.2 957 1156 15.49% 20.15% 64.36%-1.44 +2.4 13
2020-01-18 Caernarfon Town W 2-038.3 1161 1151 41.93% 23.51% 34.56%+0.18 +13.2 31
2020-01-18 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 0-238.3 1151 1161 34.56% 23.51% 41.93%-0.18 -13.2 34
2020-01-18 Carmarthen Town W 7-134.6 1173 1075 53.39% 22.53% 24.07%+0.76 +22.3 40
2020-01-18 @ Barry Town United L 1-734.6 1075 1173 24.07% 22.53% 53.39%-0.76 -22.3 12
2020-01-18 Cefn Druids L 1-251.4 1273 1148 56.66% 21.99% 21.35%+0.95 -9.9 41
2020-01-18 @ Bala Town W 2-151.4 1148 1273 21.35% 21.99% 56.66%-0.95 +9.9 31
2020-01-18 Connah's Quay Nomads W 2-144.3 1440 1333 54.49% 22.37% 23.14%+0.82 +4.7 50
2020-01-18 @ The New Saints L 1-244.3 1333 1440 23.14% 22.37% 54.49%-0.82 -4.7 46
2020-01-18 Penybont W 1-040.2 1070 1055 42.59% 23.49% 33.92%+0.21 +6.9 23
2020-01-18 @ Aberystwyth Town L 0-140.2 1055 1070 33.92% 23.49% 42.59%-0.21 -6.9 15

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-02-07 Bala Town L 1-241.9 1137 1263 24.43% 22.59% 52.97%-0.74 -4.9 0
2020-02-07 @ Caernarfon Town W 2-141.9 1263 1137 52.97% 22.59% 24.43%+0.74 +4.9 3
2020-02-07 Carmarthen Town L 1-246.6 1048 1053 39.83% 23.55% 36.62%+0.08 -7.4 0
2020-02-07 @ Penybont W 2-146.6 1053 1048 36.62% 23.55% 39.83%-0.08 +7.4 3
2020-02-07 Cefn Druids L 2-343.8 959 1158 17.85% 21.02% 61.13%-1.22 -3.5 0
2020-02-07 @ Airbus UK W 3-243.8 1158 959 61.13% 21.02% 17.85%+1.22 +3.5 3
2020-02-07 Newtown L 1-255.4 1444 1153 72.47% 17.24% 10.29%+2.06 -12.2 0
2020-02-07 @ The New Saints W 2-155.4 1153 1444 10.29% 17.24% 72.47%-2.06 +12.2 3
2020-02-08 Aberystwyth Town W 3-139.6 1174 1077 53.32% 22.54% 24.13%+0.76 +8.4 3
2020-02-08 @ Cardiff Metropolitan L 1-339.6 1077 1174 24.13% 22.54% 53.32%-0.76 -8.5 0
2020-02-08 Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-137.3 1195 1328 23.70% 22.47% 53.83%-0.79 -5.1 0
2020-02-08 @ Barry Town United W 1-037.3 1328 1195 53.83% 22.47% 23.70%+0.79 +5.1 3
2020-02-14 Airbus UK W 5-345.0 1068 956 55.17% 22.26% 22.58%+0.86 +6.7 3
2020-02-14 @ Aberystwyth Town L 3-545.0 956 1068 22.58% 22.26% 55.17%-0.86 -6.7 0
2020-02-14 Caernarfon Town W 4-029.3 1333 1132 64.57% 20.08% 15.35%+1.45 +12.1 6
2020-02-14 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-429.3 1132 1333 15.35% 20.08% 64.57%-1.45 -12.0 0
2020-02-14 The New Saints D 1-154.5 1268 1432 20.74% 21.85% 57.41%-0.99 +1.6 4
2020-02-14 @ Bala Town D 1-154.5 1432 1268 57.41% 21.85% 20.74%+0.99 -1.6 1
2020-02-21 Penybont L 0-143.5 1075 1041 45.26% 23.36% 31.39%+0.34 -8.6 3
2020-02-21 @ Aberystwyth Town W 1-043.5 1041 1075 31.39% 23.36% 45.26%-0.34 +8.6 3
2020-02-21 The New Saints W 1-047.4 1345 1431 29.00% 23.17% 47.82%-0.47 +9.0 9
2020-02-21 @ Connah's Quay Nomads L 0-147.4 1431 1345 47.82% 23.17% 29.00%+0.47 -9.0 1
2020-02-22 Airbus UK D 1-153.4 1182 949 67.58% 19.11% 13.30%+1.67 -2.4 4
2020-02-22 @ Cardiff Metropolitan D 1-153.4 949 1182 13.30% 19.11% 67.58%-1.67 +2.4 1
2020-02-22 Bala Town L 1-242.7 1165 1270 26.77% 22.93% 50.30%-0.59 -5.3 3
2020-02-22 @ Newtown W 2-142.7 1270 1165 50.30% 22.93% 26.77%+0.59 +5.3 7
2020-02-22 Caernarfon Town D 1-152.3 1190 1120 49.91% 22.97% 27.12%+0.57 -0.9 1
2020-02-22 @ Barry Town United D 1-152.3 1120 1190 27.12% 22.97% 49.91%-0.57 +0.9 1
2020-02-22 Cefn Druids W 1-044.8 1060 1161 27.17% 22.98% 49.86%-0.57 +9.4 6
2020-02-22 @ Carmarthen Town L 0-144.8 1161 1060 49.86% 22.98% 27.17%+0.57 -9.4 3
2020-03-06 Aberystwyth Town D 2-257.2 1152 1066 51.89% 22.74% 25.37%+0.68 -0.8 4
2020-03-06 @ Cefn Druids D 2-257.2 1066 1152 25.37% 22.74% 51.89%-0.68 +0.8 4
2020-03-06 Barry Town United D 2-259.2 1422 1189 67.53% 19.13% 13.34%+1.67 -1.8 2
2020-03-06 @ The New Saints D 2-259.2 1189 1422 13.34% 19.13% 67.53%-1.67 +1.8 2
2020-03-06 Cardiff Metropolitan W 2-043.6 1049 1180 23.96% 22.52% 53.52%-0.77 +18.8 6
2020-03-06 @ Penybont L 0-243.6 1180 1049 53.52% 22.52% 23.96%+0.77 -18.8 4
2020-03-06 Connah's Quay Nomads D 2-258.1 1275 1354 29.75% 23.24% 47.01%-0.42 +0.5 8
2020-03-06 @ Bala Town D 2-258.1 1354 1275 47.01% 23.24% 29.75%+0.42 -0.5 10
2020-03-06 Newtown W 3-145.2 1121 1160 35.01% 23.52% 41.47%-0.15 +13.1 4
2020-03-06 @ Caernarfon Town L 1-345.2 1160 1121 41.47% 23.52% 35.01%+0.15 -13.1 3
2020-03-07 Airbus UK L 1-349.0 1070 952 55.80% 22.15% 22.05%+0.90 -16.9 6
2020-03-07 @ Carmarthen Town W 3-149.0 952 1070 22.05% 22.15% 55.80%-0.90 +16.9 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-02-07 10.29% Newtown 1153 2 @ The New Saints 1444 1
2 2019-12-20 10.61% Cardiff Metropolitan 1146 2 @ The New Saints 1430 1
3 2019-08-23 12.46% @ Bala Town 1137 3 The New Saints 1417 1
4 2019-09-28 13.56% Barry Town United 1191 1 @ The New Saints 1420 0
5 2019-10-04 15.06% @ Caernarfon Town 1171 1 The New Saints 1408 0
6 2019-12-13 19.67% @ Cefn Druids 1155 2 Connah's Quay Nomads 1331 0
7 2020-01-10 20.10% Aberystwyth Town 1041 3 @ Caernarfon Town 1180 0
8 2020-01-18 21.35% Cefn Druids 1148 2 @ Bala Town 1273 1
9 2019-11-16 21.56% Carmarthen Town 1068 3 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1191 0
10 2020-03-07 22.05% Airbus UK 952 3 @ Carmarthen Town 1070 1
11 2019-12-14 22.29% Aberystwyth Town 1040 2 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1156 1
12 2019-10-19 22.31% @ Airbus UK 1008 2 Newtown 1155 0
13 2020-01-11 22.73% Penybont 1046 3 @ Cefn Druids 1157 2
14 2020-01-11 23.76% @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1151 1 Bala Town 1283 0
15 2020-03-06 23.96% @ Penybont 1049 2 Cardiff Metropolitan 1180 0
16 2019-08-30 25.33% Aberystwyth Town 1070 2 @ Cefn Druids 1156 1
17 2019-09-07 26.53% Airbus UK 1005 2 @ Aberystwyth Town 1080 1
18 2019-09-28 26.88% @ Airbus UK 1000 1 Carmarthen Town 1104 0
19 2020-02-22 27.17% @ Carmarthen Town 1060 1 Cefn Druids 1161 0
20 2019-11-30 28.96% Newtown 1131 1 @ Barry Town United 1185 0
21 2020-02-21 29.00% @ Connah's Quay Nomads 1345 1 The New Saints 1431 0
22 2019-11-08 31.05% @ Newtown 1122 3 Caernarfon Town 1191 1
23 2019-10-18 31.38% @ Cefn Druids 1110 3 Caernarfon Town 1176 1
24 2020-02-21 31.39% Penybont 1041 1 @ Aberystwyth Town 1075 0
25 2019-10-25 31.43% @ Newtown 1136 1 Cardiff Metropolitan 1201 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-01-10 29.35 Aberystwyth Town 3 1041 20.10% @ Caernarfon Town 0 1180 58.21% 21.69%
2 2019-11-16 28.54 Carmarthen Town 3 1068 21.56% @ Cardiff Metropolitan 0 1191 56.40% 22.04%
3 2019-09-07 26.06 Bala Town 6 1152 40.95% @ Penybont 1 1117 35.52% 23.53%
4 2020-01-18 22.33 @ Barry Town United 7 1173 53.39% Carmarthen Town 1 1075 24.07% 22.53%
5 2019-11-01 21.96 @ Bala Town 4 1194 47.34% Newtown 0 1144 29.44% 23.21%
6 2019-11-08 21.77 Bala Town 5 1216 54.82% @ Aberystwyth Town 0 1075 22.86% 22.31%
7 2019-11-02 21.41 Aberystwyth Town 5 1053 40.64% @ Airbus UK 1 1020 35.82% 23.54%
8 2019-12-13 20.38 @ Cefn Druids 2 1155 19.67% Connah's Quay Nomads 0 1331 58.76% 21.57%
9 2019-08-23 20.23 @ Bala Town 3 1137 12.46% The New Saints 1 1417 68.89% 18.65%
10 2019-11-09 19.83 Connah's Quay Nomads 4 1308 51.07% @ Barry Town United 0 1198 26.09% 22.84%
11 2019-10-04 19.39 Bala Town 3 1173 41.31% @ Cefn Druids 0 1136 35.17% 23.53%
12 2019-10-19 19.37 @ Airbus UK 2 1008 22.31% Newtown 0 1155 55.48% 22.20%
13 2019-11-02 18.86 @ Caernarfon Town 4 1172 34.26% Barry Town United 1 1216 42.24% 23.50%
14 2020-03-06 18.77 @ Penybont 2 1049 23.96% Cardiff Metropolitan 0 1180 53.52% 22.52%
15 2020-03-07 16.87 Airbus UK 3 952 22.05% @ Carmarthen Town 1 1070 55.80% 22.15%
16 2019-12-30 15.64 @ Bala Town 3 1268 50.04% Caernarfon Town 0 1197 27.00% 22.96%
17 2019-11-22 14.99 @ Barry Town United 3 1170 51.49% Penybont 0 1087 25.72% 22.79%
18 2019-08-26 14.71 The New Saints 10 1397 71.58% @ Aberystwyth Town 1 1085 10.81% 17.61%
19 2019-12-13 14.45 @ Caernarfon Town 5 1183 65.15% Airbus UK 0 977 14.94% 19.91%
20 2019-11-08 14.19 @ Newtown 3 1122 31.05% Caernarfon Town 1 1191 45.61% 23.34%
21 2019-10-18 14.10 @ Cefn Druids 3 1110 31.38% Caernarfon Town 1 1176 45.27% 23.36%
22 2019-12-26 14.07 The New Saints 5 1418 65.73% @ Cefn Druids 0 1173 14.55% 19.73%
23 2019-11-30 13.89 The New Saints 12 1407 79.20% @ Airbus UK 0 990 6.73% 14.07%
24 2019-11-30 13.39 Bala Town 3 1241 55.10% @ Carmarthen Town 0 1097 22.63% 22.27%
25 2019-12-17 13.28 @ Bala Town 4 1254 62.40% Penybont 0 1075 16.90% 20.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-14 60.8 @ Cefn Druids 3 1142 45.08% Carmarthen Town 3 1109 31.55% 23.37%
2 2020-03-06 59.2 @ The New Saints 2 1422 67.53% Barry Town United 2 1189 13.34% 19.13%
3 2020-03-06 58.1 @ Bala Town 2 1275 29.75% Connah's Quay Nomads 2 1354 47.01% 23.24%
4 2019-10-12 57.4 @ Aberystwyth Town 2 1049 21.16% Cardiff Metropolitan 2 1208 56.89% 21.95%
5 2020-01-11 57.3 @ Carmarthen Town 2 1076 56.07% Airbus UK 2 956 21.83% 22.10%
6 2020-03-06 57.2 @ Cefn Druids 2 1152 51.89% Aberystwyth Town 2 1066 25.37% 22.74%
7 2019-09-07 57.1 @ Carmarthen Town 2 1109 28.04% Cardiff Metropolitan 2 1202 48.88% 23.08%
8 2019-08-26 57.0 @ Barry Town United 2 1175 42.90% Bala Town 2 1158 33.63% 23.47%
9 2020-02-07 55.4 Newtown 2 1153 10.29% @ The New Saints 1 1444 72.47% 17.24%
10 2020-01-11 55.3 Penybont 3 1046 22.73% @ Cefn Druids 2 1157 54.98% 22.29%
11 2019-12-20 55.1 Cardiff Metropolitan 2 1146 10.61% @ The New Saints 1 1430 71.93% 17.46%
12 2020-02-14 54.5 @ Bala Town 1 1268 20.74% The New Saints 1 1432 57.41% 21.85%
13 2019-11-01 54.3 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 1 1307 27.52% The New Saints 1 1405 49.46% 23.02%
14 2019-09-16 54.0 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1201 16.62% The New Saints 1 1416 62.79% 20.59%
15 2019-10-25 53.5 @ Aberystwyth Town 1 1051 13.68% Connah's Quay Nomads 1 1310 67.01% 19.31%
16 2020-02-22 53.4 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1182 67.58% Airbus UK 1 949 13.30% 19.11%
17 2019-08-26 52.9 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 1 1273 60.37% Carmarthen Town 1 1114 18.42% 21.21%
18 2019-10-05 52.9 @ Airbus UK 1 1009 17.65% Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1210 61.39% 20.96%
19 2019-12-21 52.9 @ Airbus UK 1 962 16.72% Cefn Druids 1 1175 62.65% 20.63%
20 2019-08-17 52.7 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 1 1275 53.15% Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1180 24.28% 22.57%
21 2019-09-20 52.6 @ Newtown 1 1160 24.20% Connah's Quay Nomads 1 1288 53.24% 22.56%
22 2019-08-23 52.5 @ Bala Town 3 1137 12.46% The New Saints 1 1417 68.89% 18.65%
23 2019-11-01 52.5 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1193 55.16% Penybont 1 1080 22.58% 22.26%
24 2019-10-19 52.3 @ Bala Town 1 1197 38.78% Barry Town United 1 1209 37.65% 23.56%
25 2020-02-22 52.3 @ Barry Town United 1 1190 49.91% Caernarfon Town 1 1120 27.12% 22.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-12-30 25.9 Connah's Quay Nomads 4 1318 74.97% @ Airbus UK 0 963 8.89% 16.14%
2 2019-11-30 26.3 The New Saints 12 1407 79.20% @ Airbus UK 0 990 6.73% 14.07%
3 2019-11-15 28.0 @ The New Saints 2 1404 76.95% Aberystwyth Town 0 1053 7.85% 15.20%
4 2019-12-13 28.7 @ Caernarfon Town 5 1183 65.15% Airbus UK 0 977 14.94% 19.91%
5 2019-08-26 28.9 The New Saints 10 1397 71.58% @ Aberystwyth Town 1 1085 10.81% 17.61%
6 2019-12-26 29.3 The New Saints 5 1418 65.73% @ Cefn Druids 0 1173 14.55% 19.73%
7 2020-02-14 29.3 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 4 1333 64.57% Caernarfon Town 0 1132 15.35% 20.08%
8 2019-12-17 29.7 @ Bala Town 4 1254 62.40% Penybont 0 1075 16.90% 20.70%
9 2019-12-03 30.6 @ The New Saints 1 1421 75.99% Carmarthen Town 0 1083 8.35% 15.66%
10 2019-10-12 30.7 @ The New Saints 6 1396 79.19% Airbus UK 2 1011 6.74% 14.07%
11 2020-01-10 31.1 The New Saints 2 1434 68.34% @ Newtown 0 1161 12.82% 18.85%
12 2019-11-08 31.8 Bala Town 5 1216 54.82% @ Aberystwyth Town 0 1075 22.86% 22.31%
13 2019-10-26 32.0 @ Barry Town United 2 1209 62.74% Airbus UK 0 1027 16.66% 20.61%
14 2019-11-15 32.4 @ Bala Town 1 1238 68.60% Airbus UK 0 993 12.65% 18.75%
15 2019-08-18 32.6 @ The New Saints 1 1415 70.34% Caernarfon Town 0 1150 11.56% 18.10%
16 2019-11-30 32.7 Bala Town 3 1241 55.10% @ Carmarthen Town 0 1097 22.63% 22.27%
17 2019-09-21 33.5 The New Saints 6 1414 70.97% @ Carmarthen Town 2 1110 11.18% 17.85%
18 2019-11-09 33.5 Connah's Quay Nomads 4 1308 51.07% @ Barry Town United 0 1198 26.09% 22.84%
19 2020-01-11 33.6 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 2 1325 58.72% Barry Town United 0 1181 19.70% 21.58%
20 2019-11-22 33.7 @ Barry Town United 3 1170 51.49% Penybont 0 1087 25.72% 22.79%
21 2019-09-13 34.2 @ Connah's Quay Nomads 4 1281 65.48% Aberystwyth Town 1 1071 14.71% 19.80%
22 2019-11-01 34.2 @ Bala Town 4 1194 47.34% Newtown 0 1144 29.44% 23.21%
23 2019-08-26 34.3 @ Cardiff Metropolitan 1 1192 62.42% Airbus UK 0 1013 16.89% 20.69%
24 2019-10-25 34.4 @ The New Saints 1 1402 64.91% Bala Town 0 1197 15.11% 19.98%
25 2019-12-30 34.4 @ Bala Town 3 1268 50.04% Caernarfon Town 0 1197 27.00% 22.96%