2020-21 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Connah's Quay Nomads

79 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cardiff Metropolitan

5.22 points above expected

40 points · 34.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cefn Druids

8.15 points below expected

16 points · 24.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	18	3	1	57	48	13	+35	46.34	+10.66
2	The New Saints	22	17	3	2	54	65	13	+52	48.86	+5.14
3	Bala Town	22	12	6	4	42	51	28	+23	42.43	-0.43
4	Barry Town United	22	11	3	8	36	33	29	+4	32.59	+3.41
5	Penybont	22	10	5	7	35	29	25	+4	30.16	+4.84
6	Caernarfon Town	22	9	5	8	32	33	42	-9	27.84	+4.16
7	Haverfordwest County	22	8	5	9	29	29	35	-6	23.33	+5.67
8	Aberystwyth Town	22	5	6	11	21	30	40	-10	23.90	-2.90
9	Newtown	22	5	5	12	20	29	41	-12	26.93	-6.93
10	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	4	5	13	17	18	35	-17	26.31	-9.31
11	Flint Town United	22	5	0	17	15	21	53	-32	20.94	-5.94
12	Cefn Druids	22	3	4	15	13	21	53	-32	22.19	-9.19

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	25	4	3	79	70	20	+50	77.15	+1.85
2	The New Saints	32	24	5	3	77	84	17	+67	74.71	+2.29
3	Bala Town	32	18	6	8	60	67	42	+25	56.33	+3.67
4	Penybont	32	13	7	12	46	42	40	+2	46.49	-0.49
5	Barry Town United	32	13	4	15	43	42	53	-11	45.67	-2.67
6	Caernarfon Town	32	10	7	15	37	43	67	-24	40.29	-3.29

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Newtown	32	12	6	14	42	57	53	+4	44.92	-2.92
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	11	7	14	40	47	46	+1	34.78	+5.22
3	Haverfordwest County	32	10	7	15	37	38	56	-18	36.69	+0.31
4	Aberystwyth Town	32	8	9	15	33	47	53	-6	32.07	+0.93
5	Flint Town United	32	10	2	20	32	38	58	-20	26.85	+5.15
6	Cefn Druids	32	4	4	24	16	25	95	-70	24.15	-8.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cardiff Metropolitan	40	34.78	+5.22
2	Flint Town United	32	26.85	+5.15
3	Bala Town	60	56.33	+3.67
4	The New Saints	77	74.71	+2.29
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	79	77.15	+1.85

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cefn Druids	16	24.15	-8.15
2	Caernarfon Town	37	40.29	-3.29
3	Newtown	42	44.92	-2.92
4	Barry Town United	43	45.67	-2.67
5	Penybont	46	46.49	-0.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	9	Nov 13 – Mar 9	1 in 47
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	5	Apr 27 – May 15	1 in 45
3	Barry Town United	5	Sep 19 – Oct 6	1 in 30
4	Penybont	3	Sep 30 – Oct 6	1 in 26
5	Caernarfon Town	3	Dec 8 – Dec 15	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cefn Druids	9	Apr 13 – May 15	1 in 90
2	Flint Town United	7	Sep 26 – Nov 14	1 in 89
3	Bala Town	3	Mar 16 – Mar 27	1 in 72
4	Aberystwyth Town	6	Nov 28 – Dec 19	1 in 62
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	5	Dec 12 – Mar 13	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Caernarfon Town	8	Dec 8 – Mar 27	1 in 100
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	9	Apr 13 – May 15	1 in 72
3	Bala Town	14	Oct 10 – Mar 13	1 in 56
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	14	Oct 17 – Apr 2	1 in 17
5	Newtown	7	Apr 9 – Apr 30	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cardiff Metropolitan	11	Dec 5 – Apr 13	1 in 55
2	Aberystwyth Town	10	Oct 10 – Mar 6	1 in 32
3	Haverfordwest County	7	Apr 17 – May 8	1 in 17
4	The New Saints	3	Apr 24 – May 1	1 in 16
5	Bala Town	3	Mar 16 – Mar 27	1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Connah's Quay Nomads	1526	79	+7	10	10.4	-0.4
The New Saints	1538	77	+29	11	10.5	+0.5
Bala Town	1325	60	-18	9	7.3	+1.7
Penybont	1256	46	-22	4	6.2	-2.2
Barry Town United	1178	43	-35	3	4.3	-1.3
Newtown	1178	42	-39	9	10.2	-1.2
Cardiff Metropolitan	1212	40	+91	15	8.3	+6.7
Caernarfon Town	1162	37	+40	5	3.6	+1.4
Haverfordwest County	1034	37	-33	4	6.3	-2.3
Aberystwyth Town	1159	33	+51	8	6.9	+1.1
Flint Town United	1137	32	+33	7	7.5	-0.5
Cefn Druids	839	16	-102	0	3.1	-3.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BTU	CT	CM	CD	CQN	FTU	HC	NEW	PEN	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	0-0-2 1.56	0-0-2 2.08	0-1-1 2.57	0-2-2 5.39	4-0-0 6.91	0-0-2 1.29	1-1-2 5.52	1-1-2 5.83	2-1-1 4.53	0-2-0 2.24	0-1-1 0.94
Bala Town	2-0-0 4.08	—	3-0-1 7.57	1-1-2 8.73	1-1-0 4.30	2-0-0 4.20	1-1-2 4.11	2-0-0 4.58	0-1-1 4.39	2-0-0 4.12	4-0-0 7.14	0-2-2 3.45
Barry Town United	2-0-0 3.55	1-0-3 3.69	—	3-0-1 6.37	2-0-0 3.73	2-0-0 3.61	0-1-3 2.61	2-0-0 3.56	1-0-1 3.64	0-2-0 3.33	0-1-3 5.01	0-0-4 2.48
Caernarfon Town	1-1-0 3.05	2-1-1 2.57	1-0-3 4.88	—	2-0-0 3.02	1-0-1 3.35	0-0-4 2.46	2-0-0 3.14	0-1-1 3.53	1-1-0 2.84	0-2-2 4.48	0-1-3 1.88
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-2-0 5.86	0-1-1 1.35	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 2.60	—	2-2-0 7.18	0-0-2 1.10	3-0-1 6.46	2-1-1 6.18	2-1-1 4.77	0-0-2 2.83	0-0-2 1.15
Cefn Druids	0-0-4 4.35	0-0-2 1.45	0-0-2 2.02	1-0-1 2.28	0-2-2 4.10	—	0-0-2 1.19	1-0-3 5.01	2-1-1 3.97	0-0-4 3.54	0-1-1 2.04	0-0-2 0.65
Connah's Quay Nomads	2-0-0 4.36	2-1-1 7.15	3-1-0 8.69	4-0-0 8.85	2-0-0 4.56	2-0-0 4.47	—	2-0-0 4.84	2-0-0 4.49	2-0-0 4.71	2-1-1 8.67	2-1-1 4.71
Flint Town United	2-1-1 5.73	0-0-2 1.08	0-0-2 2.07	0-0-2 2.48	1-0-3 4.79	3-0-1 6.25	0-0-2 0.84	—	2-1-1 5.88	1-0-3 4.41	1-0-1 1.72	0-0-2 0.83
Haverfordwest County	2-1-1 5.42	1-1-0 1.26	1-0-1 1.99	1-1-0 2.10	1-1-2 5.08	1-1-2 7.30	0-0-2 1.17	1-1-2 5.38	—	1-1-2 4.46	0-0-2 2.47	1-0-1 0.75
Newtown	1-1-2 6.72	0-0-2 1.52	0-2-0 2.30	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-2 6.48	4-0-0 7.74	0-0-2 0.96	3-0-1 6.85	2-1-1 6.80	—	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 0.99
Penybont	0-2-0 3.39	0-0-4 4.12	3-1-0 6.25	2-2-0 6.78	2-0-0 2.80	1-1-0 3.59	1-1-2 2.62	1-0-1 3.92	2-0-0 3.15	1-0-1 2.97	—	0-0-4 2.40
The New Saints	1-1-0 4.74	2-2-0 7.82	4-0-0 8.83	3-1-0 9.48	2-0-0 4.51	2-0-0 5.05	1-1-2 6.54	2-0-0 4.85	1-0-1 4.94	2-0-0 4.67	4-0-0 8.91	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.86	+10.3
Allowed	0.85	-8.3
Differential	0.92	+4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.21%	6.77%	6.77%	2.34%	2.34%	3.12%	26.56%
1	6.77%	8.85%	8.85%	2.60%	3.12%	1.82%	32.03%
2	6.77%	8.85%	3.12%	2.08%	0.26%	0.78%	21.88%
3	2.34%	2.60%	2.08%	0.52%	—	0.26%	7.81%
4	2.34%	3.12%	0.26%	—	—	—	5.73%
5+	3.12%	1.82%	0.78%	0.26%	—	—	5.99%
Total	26.56%	32.03%	21.88%	7.81%	5.73%	5.99%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.56	+0.00
SD	1.55	1.55	2.48
CV	0.99	0.99	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
1	3.12%	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
2	—	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	15.62%	37.50%	28.12%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.66	-0.19
SD	1.29	1.31	2.04
CV	0.88	0.79	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
1	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	18.75%	50.00%	21.88%	6.25%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.31	+0.78
SD	1.65	1.18	2.14
CV	0.79	0.90	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	37.50%
1	15.62%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	34.38%
2	—	9.38%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	21.88%	31.25%	21.88%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.66	-0.34
SD	1.64	1.43	2.13
CV	1.25	0.86	—
Max	6	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	6.25%	3.12%	21.88%
1	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	34.38%
2	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	31.25%
3	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	28.12%	25.00%	9.38%	12.50%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	2.09	-0.75
SD	0.97	1.69	2.23
CV	0.72	0.81	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
1	3.12%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
3	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	15.62%	46.88%	21.88%	9.38%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.44	+0.03
SD	1.65	1.08	2.09
CV	1.12	0.75	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	21.88%	43.75%
1	—	9.38%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	40.62%
2	—	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	25.00%	21.88%	9.38%	15.62%	25.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	2.97	-2.19
SD	0.91	1.86	2.42
CV	1.16	0.63	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
1	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
2	18.75%	15.62%	—	—	—	—	34.38%
3	—	15.62%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	43.75%	50.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.19	0.62	+1.56
SD	1.55	0.61	1.61
CV	0.71	0.97	—
Max	6	2	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	12.50%	—	—	9.38%	43.75%
1	6.25%	—	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
3	6.25%	—	—	—	—	3.12%	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	31.25%	21.88%	28.12%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.81	-0.62
SD	1.51	2.22	3.00
CV	1.27	1.23	—
Max	6	10	+6
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	—	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
1	6.25%	9.38%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	40.62%
2	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	21.88%	31.25%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.75	-0.56
SD	0.97	1.57	2.05
CV	0.81	0.89	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	25.00%
1	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	28.12%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.66	+0.12
SD	1.75	1.29	2.54
CV	0.99	0.78	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
1	15.62%	12.50%	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
2	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	40.62%	25.00%	15.62%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.25	+0.06
SD	1.28	1.41	2.14
CV	0.98	1.13	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
1	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
2	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	21.88%
3	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
5+	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	68.75%	15.62%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.62	0.53	+2.09
SD	2.15	0.95	2.56
CV	0.82	1.79	—
Max	10	4	+10
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1538	77	48.86	+28.14	82.0%	30	39	45	49	53	58	62
Connah's Quay Nomads	1526	79	46.34	+32.66	96.0%	33	37	42	46	50	54	62
Bala Town	1325	60	42.43	+17.57	47.0%	27	34	39	43	46	50	56
Penybont	1256	46	30.16	+15.84	81.0%	13	19	26	30	34	40	45
Cardiff Metropolitan	1212	40	26.31	+13.69	8.0%	11	14	23	27	31	35	38
Barry Town United	1178	43	32.59	+10.41	75.0%	19	22	29	32	36	42	48
Newtown	1178	42	26.93	+15.07	12.0%	10	17	23	27	31	36	43
Caernarfon Town	1162	37	27.84	+9.16	78.0%	12	18	23	28	32	38	51
Aberystwyth Town	1159	33	23.90	+9.10	35.0%	10	13	20	24	28	32	35
Flint Town United	1137	32	20.94	+11.06	21.0%	10	12	16	20	25	31	37
Haverfordwest County	1034	37	23.33	+13.67	82.0%	9	14	19	23	27	34	39
Cefn Druids	839	16	22.19	-6.19	6.0%	10	13	18	22	26	32	36

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+8.33%

Slight Edge

45.31%17.71%36.98%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.

132 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.19 goals

Neutral

-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.3

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

28%

Connah's Quay Nomads, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.68 * Some Luck: 4.68 to 7.03 * Lucky: 7.03 to 9.37 * Wild Swing: 9.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 1.99 * Off: 1.99 to 2.66 * Way Off: 2.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.37 points

Some Luck

05.8515

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.67

Pinpoint

01.664

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.00%

Connah's Quay Nomads

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.00%

Cefn Druids

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 157.48

2.37

Wide Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

71%

Slight Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

53%

Few

0%45%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Very Frequent

0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.20

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.71

Near-Lock

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Solid Favorites

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.52

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.065

Well Within Noise

00.1240.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Connah's Quay Nomads	28.00%	45.00%	21.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
The New Saints	58.00%	26.00%	14.00%	1.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	14.00%	23.00%	48.00%	13.00%	—	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	—	1.00%	7.00%	15.00%	23.00%	14.00%	16.00%	6.00%	8.00%	4.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Barry Town United	—	4.00%	5.00%	32.00%	15.00%	20.00%	10.00%	8.00%	3.00%	3.00%	—	—
Caernarfon Town	—	1.00%	2.00%	10.00%	14.00%	14.00%	11.00%	13.00%	14.00%	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Newtown	—	—	2.00%	11.00%	12.00%	9.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.00%	10.00%	9.00%	5.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	—	4.00%	15.00%	16.00%	12.00%	13.00%	13.00%	8.00%	9.00%	10.00%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	5.00%	8.00%	5.00%	6.00%	14.00%	10.00%	19.00%	19.00%	14.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	1.00%	7.00%	10.00%	16.00%	16.00%	10.00%	16.00%	13.00%	11.00%
Flint Town United	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	7.00%	6.00%	18.00%	10.00%	17.00%	34.00%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	5.00%	6.00%	9.00%	12.00%	24.00%	22.00%	16.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Connah's Quay Nomads	65.31%	34.40%	0.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
The New Saints	34.66%	64.65%	0.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	0.03%	0.93%	83.31%	12.36%	3.00%	0.37%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	—	0.01%	8.44%	43.68%	34.67%	13.20%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	—	0.01%	6.21%	35.14%	41.26%	17.38%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	—	—	1.06%	8.82%	21.07%	69.05%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	74.76%	17.07%	6.09%	1.91%	0.15%	0.02%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.77%	26.63%	29.53%	21.48%	10.67%	2.92%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.71%	36.51%	26.52%	15.82%	6.68%	1.76%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.15%	14.82%	24.42%	31.59%	18.13%	7.89%
Flint Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.50%	3.43%	8.92%	18.35%	38.25%	30.55%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.11%	1.54%	4.52%	10.85%	26.12%	56.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round
Aberystwyth Town	100%
Bala Town	100%
Barry Town United	100%
Caernarfon Town	100%
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%
Cefn Druids	100%
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%
Flint Town United	100%
Haverfordwest County	100%
Newtown	100%
Penybont	100%
The New Saints	100%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round
Aberystwyth Town	100%
Bala Town	100%
Barry Town United	100%
Caernarfon Town	100%
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%
Cefn Druids	100%
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%
Flint Town United	100%
Haverfordwest County	100%
Newtown	100%
Penybont	100%
The New Saints	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2020-09-12	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.9	1322	1276	51.11%	18.63%	30.26%	+0.57	-1.4	1
2020-09-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.9	1276	1322	30.26%	18.63%	51.11%	-0.57	+1.4	1
2020-09-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	50.3	1150	1205	37.16%	18.77%	44.07%	-0.20	-10.2	0
2020-09-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	50.3	1205	1150	44.07%	18.77%	37.16%	+0.20	+10.2	3
2020-09-12	Newtown	W 1-0	42.0	1142	1195	37.57%	18.77%	43.66%	-0.18	+13.0	3
2020-09-12	@ Flint Town United	L 0-1	42.0	1195	1142	43.66%	18.77%	37.57%	+0.18	-13.0	0
2020-09-12	Penybont	D 1-1	54.1	1188	1153	49.63%	18.67%	31.70%	+0.48	-1.2	1
2020-09-12	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.1	1153	1188	31.70%	18.67%	49.63%	-0.48	+1.2	1
2020-09-12	The New Saints	L 0-3	33.0	1222	1368	25.66%	18.44%	55.90%	-0.90	-22.8	0
2020-09-12	@ Barry Town United	W 3-0	33.0	1368	1222	55.90%	18.44%	25.66%	+0.90	+22.8	3
2020-09-15	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1154	1139	47.07%	18.73%	34.20%	+0.34	-0.8	2
2020-09-15	@ Penybont	D 1-1	54.1	1139	1154	34.20%	18.73%	47.07%	-0.34	+0.8	1
2020-09-15	Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	52.5	1182	1186	44.33%	18.76%	36.90%	+0.18	-11.8	0
2020-09-15	@ Newtown	W 3-2	52.5	1186	1182	36.90%	18.76%	44.33%	-0.18	+11.8	4
2020-09-15	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.2	1215	1124	56.64%	18.40%	24.96%	+0.91	-2.4	4
2020-09-15	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.2	1124	1215	24.96%	18.40%	56.64%	-0.91	+2.4	1
2020-09-18	Flint Town United	W 3-1	43.4	1140	1155	42.90%	18.78%	38.32%	+0.11	+19.1	4
2020-09-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	43.4	1155	1140	38.32%	18.78%	42.90%	-0.11	-19.1	3
2020-09-19	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	42.9	1199	1198	45.10%	18.76%	36.14%	+0.23	+18.2	3
2020-09-19	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	42.9	1198	1199	36.14%	18.76%	45.10%	-0.23	-18.2	4
2020-09-19	Newtown	D 2-2	59.5	1126	1170	38.82%	18.78%	42.40%	-0.11	+0.2	2
2020-09-19	@ Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	59.5	1170	1126	42.40%	18.78%	38.82%	+0.11	-0.2	1
2020-09-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	32.0	1391	1213	65.54%	17.70%	16.76%	+1.58	+10.6	6
2020-09-20	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	32.0	1213	1391	16.76%	17.70%	65.54%	-1.58	-10.6	4
2020-09-20	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	42.0	1278	1198	55.25%	18.47%	26.28%	+0.82	+8.0	4
2020-09-20	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	42.0	1198	1278	26.28%	18.47%	55.25%	-0.82	-8.0	0
2020-09-20	Penybont	W 1-0	34.2	1320	1154	64.48%	17.81%	17.71%	+1.49	+5.9	4
2020-09-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	34.2	1154	1320	17.71%	17.81%	64.48%	-1.49	-5.9	2
2020-09-23	Flint Town United	L 1-2	49.5	1190	1136	52.18%	18.60%	29.23%	+0.63	-14.3	0
2020-09-23	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	49.5	1136	1190	29.23%	18.60%	52.18%	-0.63	+14.3	6
2020-09-25	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1170	1159	46.43%	18.74%	34.83%	+0.30	-0.8	2
2020-09-25	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.1	1159	1170	34.83%	18.74%	46.43%	-0.30	+0.8	5
2020-09-26	Bala Town	L 1-5	36.2	1148	1286	26.67%	18.49%	54.83%	-0.83	-25.6	2
2020-09-26	@ Penybont	W 5-1	36.2	1286	1148	54.83%	18.49%	26.67%	+0.83	+25.6	7
2020-09-26	Barry Town United	L 0-1	39.6	1150	1217	35.61%	18.75%	45.64%	-0.29	-11.0	6
2020-09-26	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	39.6	1217	1150	45.64%	18.75%	35.61%	+0.29	+11.0	6
2020-09-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.1	1176	1202	41.30%	18.78%	39.91%	+0.02	-0.1	1
2020-09-26	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	54.1	1202	1176	39.91%	18.78%	41.30%	-0.02	+0.1	5
2020-09-27	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-4	35.9	1126	1326	20.25%	18.07%	61.68%	-1.30	-15.5	2
2020-09-27	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	35.9	1326	1126	61.68%	18.07%	20.25%	+1.30	+15.5	7
2020-09-27	The New Saints	L 0-4	29.8	1180	1402	18.29%	17.88%	63.83%	-1.47	-21.9	4
2020-09-27	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	29.8	1402	1180	63.83%	17.88%	18.29%	+1.47	+21.9	9
2020-09-29	Cefn Druids	W 4-1	41.0	1169	1176	44.03%	18.77%	37.20%	+0.17	+26.3	5
2020-09-29	@ Newtown	L 1-4	41.0	1176	1169	37.20%	18.77%	44.03%	-0.17	-26.3	1
2020-09-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	31.4	1342	1160	65.84%	17.66%	16.50%	+1.60	+10.5	10
2020-09-30	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	31.4	1160	1342	16.50%	17.66%	65.84%	-1.60	-10.5	5
2020-09-30	Flint Town United	W 2-1	44.0	1158	1139	47.55%	18.72%	33.73%	+0.36	+9.9	7
2020-09-30	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	44.0	1139	1158	33.73%	18.72%	47.55%	-0.36	-9.9	6
2020-09-30	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	40.5	1228	1111	59.52%	18.23%	22.25%	+1.11	+6.9	9
2020-09-30	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	40.5	1111	1228	22.25%	18.23%	59.52%	-1.11	-6.9	2
2020-09-30	Penybont	L 0-1	45.4	1202	1122	55.35%	18.47%	26.18%	+0.83	-16.0	5
2020-09-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	45.4	1122	1202	26.18%	18.47%	55.35%	-0.83	+16.0	5
2020-10-03	Barry Town United	L 1-2	43.9	1150	1235	33.10%	18.71%	48.19%	-0.43	-9.8	5
2020-10-03	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	43.9	1235	1150	48.19%	18.71%	33.10%	+0.43	+9.8	12
2020-10-03	Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	38.9	1186	1168	47.48%	18.72%	33.80%	+0.36	-38.2	5
2020-10-03	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	38.9	1168	1186	33.80%	18.72%	47.48%	-0.36	+38.2	10
2020-10-03	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-5	30.1	1150	1352	19.97%	18.04%	61.98%	-1.32	-29.3	1
2020-10-03	@ Cefn Druids	W 5-0	30.1	1352	1150	61.98%	18.04%	19.97%	+1.32	+29.3	13
2020-10-03	Flint Town United	W 10-0	28.2	1424	1130	74.13%	16.30%	9.56%	+2.46	+27.8	12
2020-10-03	@ The New Saints	L 0-10	28.2	1130	1424	9.56%	16.30%	74.13%	-2.46	-27.8	6
2020-10-03	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	54.0	1311	1104	67.97%	17.40%	14.64%	+1.79	-18.4	7
2020-10-03	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	54.0	1104	1311	14.64%	17.40%	67.97%	-1.79	+18.4	5
2020-10-03	Newtown	W 2-1	47.2	1138	1195	36.92%	18.77%	44.31%	-0.21	+12.4	8
2020-10-03	@ Penybont	L 1-2	47.2	1195	1138	44.31%	18.77%	36.92%	+0.21	-12.4	5
2020-10-06	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	36.5	1120	1140	42.25%	18.78%	38.97%	+0.07	-45.2	1
2020-10-06	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-0	36.5	1140	1120	38.97%	18.78%	42.25%	-0.07	+45.2	8
2020-10-06	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	37.5	1382	1206	65.26%	17.73%	17.01%	+1.55	+9.3	16
2020-10-06	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	37.5	1206	1382	17.01%	17.73%	65.26%	-1.55	-9.3	10
2020-10-06	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	36.1	1245	1148	57.29%	18.37%	24.34%	+0.96	+7.9	15
2020-10-06	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	36.1	1148	1245	24.34%	18.37%	57.29%	-0.96	-7.9	5
2020-10-06	Newtown	W 2-0	30.1	1452	1183	72.51%	16.65%	10.84%	+2.26	+7.0	15
2020-10-06	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	30.1	1183	1452	10.84%	16.65%	72.51%	-2.26	-7.0	5
2020-10-06	Penybont	L 0-4	36.2	1122	1151	41.04%	18.78%	40.18%	+0.01	-44.2	5
2020-10-06	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	36.2	1151	1122	40.18%	18.78%	41.04%	-0.01	+44.2	11
2020-10-09	Cefn Druids	L 1-2	51.7	1197	1075	60.03%	18.19%	21.77%	+1.15	-16.3	10
2020-10-09	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	51.7	1075	1197	21.77%	18.19%	60.03%	-1.15	+16.3	4
2020-10-10	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-2	40.0	1293	1185	58.50%	18.30%	23.21%	+1.04	+15.2	10
2020-10-10	@ Bala Town	L 2-5	40.0	1185	1293	23.21%	18.30%	58.50%	-1.04	-15.2	8
2020-10-10	Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.2	1176	1253	34.24%	18.73%	47.03%	-0.36	+0.8	6
2020-10-10	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.2	1253	1176	47.03%	18.73%	34.24%	+0.36	-0.8	16
2020-10-10	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	38.8	1140	1391	15.95%	17.59%	66.46%	-1.69	-5.1	5
2020-10-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	38.8	1391	1140	66.46%	17.59%	15.95%	+1.69	+5.1	19
2020-10-10	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	40.8	1102	1078	48.19%	18.71%	33.11%	+0.40	-26.7	6
2020-10-10	@ Flint Town United	W 2-0	40.8	1078	1102	33.11%	18.71%	48.19%	-0.40	+26.7	8
2020-10-10	The New Saints	L 0-4	29.3	1195	1459	15.00%	17.45%	67.54%	-1.79	-18.2	11
2020-10-10	@ Penybont	W 4-0	29.3	1459	1195	67.54%	17.45%	15.00%	+1.79	+18.2	18
2020-10-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	42.1	1477	1396	55.42%	18.47%	26.12%	+0.83	+8.4	21
2020-10-13	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	42.1	1396	1477	26.12%	18.47%	55.42%	-0.83	-8.4	19
2020-10-14	Barry Town United	W 4-0	33.1	1308	1252	52.42%	18.59%	28.99%	+0.65	+33.0	13
2020-10-14	@ Bala Town	L 0-4	33.1	1252	1308	28.99%	18.59%	52.42%	-0.65	-33.0	16
2020-10-16	The New Saints	D 2-2	61.4	1170	1485	11.70%	16.85%	71.46%	-2.18	+3.2	9
2020-10-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	61.4	1485	1170	71.46%	16.85%	11.70%	+2.18	-3.2	22
2020-10-17	Bala Town	L 0-2	33.8	1177	1341	23.77%	18.33%	57.90%	-1.03	-14.6	6
2020-10-17	@ Newtown	W 2-0	33.8	1341	1177	57.90%	18.33%	23.77%	+1.03	+14.6	16
2020-10-17	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.1	1105	1181	34.40%	18.73%	46.87%	-0.35	+0.8	9
2020-10-17	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.1	1181	1105	46.87%	18.73%	34.40%	+0.35	-0.8	11
2020-10-17	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	51.0	1219	1388	23.30%	18.30%	58.40%	-1.06	+2.7	17
2020-10-17	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	51.0	1388	1219	58.40%	18.30%	23.30%	+1.06	-2.7	20
2020-10-17	Flint Town United	W 2-1	42.4	1135	1075	52.89%	18.57%	28.53%	+0.68	+8.6	8
2020-10-17	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	42.4	1075	1135	28.53%	18.57%	52.89%	-0.68	-8.6	6
2020-10-17	Penybont	L 0-2	36.3	1091	1177	33.14%	18.71%	48.16%	-0.43	-19.5	4
2020-10-17	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	36.3	1177	1091	48.16%	18.71%	33.14%	+0.43	+19.5	14
2020-10-20	Bala Town	L 1-2	37.6	1066	1356	13.29%	17.17%	69.55%	-1.98	-4.3	6
2020-10-20	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	37.6	1356	1066	69.55%	17.17%	13.29%	+1.98	+4.3	19
2020-10-24	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	40.6	1482	1106	78.57%	15.09%	6.34%	+3.08	+1.9	25
2020-10-24	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	40.6	1106	1482	6.34%	15.09%	78.57%	-3.08	-1.9	9
2020-10-31	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.7	1104	1360	15.58%	17.54%	66.88%	-1.72	+3.6	10
2020-10-31	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.7	1360	1104	66.88%	17.54%	15.58%	+1.72	-3.6	20
2020-11-07	The New Saints	D 1-1	58.7	1356	1484	27.85%	18.54%	53.61%	-0.75	+1.7	21
2020-11-07	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	58.7	1484	1356	53.61%	18.54%	27.85%	+0.75	-1.7	26
2020-11-13	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1143	1173	40.82%	18.78%	40.40%	+0.00	-0.0	9
2020-11-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.1	1173	1143	40.40%	18.78%	40.82%	+0.00	+0.0	10
2020-11-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.3	1180	1385	19.76%	18.02%	62.21%	-1.34	-6.2	11
2020-11-13	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	40.3	1385	1180	62.21%	18.02%	19.76%	+1.34	+6.2	23
2020-11-14	Barry Town United	W 2-1	38.5	1482	1221	71.97%	16.75%	11.28%	+2.20	+3.6	29
2020-11-14	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	38.5	1221	1482	11.28%	16.75%	71.97%	-2.20	-3.6	17
2020-11-14	Flint Town United	W 3-2	46.1	1162	1062	57.63%	18.35%	24.02%	+0.98	+7.0	9
2020-11-14	@ Newtown	L 2-3	46.1	1062	1162	24.02%	18.35%	57.63%	-0.98	-7.0	6
2020-11-14	Penybont	W 4-1	35.6	1358	1196	64.02%	17.86%	18.12%	+1.45	+14.0	24
2020-11-14	@ Bala Town	L 1-4	35.6	1196	1358	18.12%	17.86%	64.02%	-1.45	-14.0	14
2020-11-20	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	35.8	1391	1072	75.61%	15.95%	8.44%	+2.65	+2.7	26
2020-11-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	35.8	1072	1391	8.44%	15.95%	75.61%	-2.65	-2.7	4
2020-11-21	Flint Town United	L 0-3	40.1	1107	1055	51.95%	18.61%	29.45%	+0.62	-41.4	10
2020-11-21	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	40.1	1055	1107	29.45%	18.61%	51.95%	-0.62	+41.4	9
2020-11-21	Newtown	D 0-0	50.1	1218	1169	51.50%	18.62%	29.88%	+0.59	-1.6	18
2020-11-21	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	50.1	1169	1218	29.88%	18.62%	51.50%	-0.59	+1.6	10
2020-11-21	The New Saints	L 0-1	32.3	1143	1486	10.24%	16.49%	73.26%	-2.38	-3.5	9
2020-11-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	32.3	1486	1143	73.26%	16.49%	10.24%	+2.38	+3.5	32
2020-11-27	Newtown	W 3-1	36.6	1372	1171	67.50%	17.46%	15.04%	+1.75	+8.3	27
2020-11-27	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	36.6	1171	1372	15.04%	17.46%	67.50%	-1.75	-8.3	10
2020-11-28	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	32.9	1489	1173	75.44%	15.99%	8.57%	+2.62	+6.8	35
2020-11-28	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	32.9	1173	1489	8.57%	15.99%	75.44%	-2.62	-6.8	10
2020-11-28	Barry Town United	W 3-1	37.6	1394	1216	65.46%	17.71%	16.83%	+1.57	+9.2	29
2020-11-28	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	37.6	1216	1394	16.83%	17.71%	65.46%	-1.57	-9.2	18
2020-11-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	40.5	1097	1140	38.84%	18.78%	42.38%	-0.11	-11.8	9
2020-11-28	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	40.5	1140	1097	42.38%	18.78%	38.84%	+0.11	+11.8	12
2020-11-28	Haverfordwest County	L 1-4	47.2	1174	1066	58.48%	18.30%	23.22%	+1.04	-39.0	11
2020-11-28	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-1	47.2	1066	1174	23.22%	18.30%	58.48%	-1.04	+39.0	13
2020-11-29	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	54.2	1182	1069	59.07%	18.26%	22.67%	+1.08	-2.5	15
2020-11-29	@ Penybont	D 1-1	54.2	1069	1182	22.67%	18.26%	59.07%	-1.08	+2.5	5
2020-12-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	39.9	1105	1166	36.35%	18.76%	44.89%	-0.25	+25.1	16
2020-12-01	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	39.9	1166	1105	44.89%	18.76%	36.35%	+0.25	-25.1	10
2020-12-01	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.8	1135	1380	16.36%	17.65%	65.99%	-1.65	+3.5	12
2020-12-01	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.8	1380	1135	65.99%	17.65%	16.36%	+1.65	-3.5	28
2020-12-01	Flint Town United	W 2-0	28.4	1403	1085	75.56%	15.96%	8.48%	+2.64	+5.5	32
2020-12-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	28.4	1085	1403	8.48%	15.96%	75.56%	-2.64	-5.5	9
2020-12-01	Newtown	W 2-1	45.2	1152	1162	43.52%	18.77%	37.71%	+0.14	+10.9	15
2020-12-01	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	45.2	1162	1152	37.71%	18.77%	43.52%	-0.14	-10.9	10
2020-12-02	The New Saints	L 0-4	25.5	1072	1496	6.80%	15.30%	77.90%	-3.01	-8.2	5
2020-12-02	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-0	25.5	1496	1072	77.90%	15.30%	6.80%	+3.01	+8.2	38
2020-12-04	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	36.5	1141	1409	14.76%	17.42%	67.83%	-1.81	-8.2	10
2020-12-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	36.5	1409	1141	67.83%	17.42%	14.76%	+1.81	+8.2	35
2020-12-05	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.8	1163	1377	18.96%	17.95%	63.09%	-1.41	+3.0	16
2020-12-05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.8	1377	1163	63.09%	17.95%	18.96%	+1.41	-3.1	29
2020-12-05	Caernarfon Town	W 6-0	33.5	1180	1138	50.56%	18.65%	30.79%	+0.54	+50.9	18
2020-12-05	@ Penybont	L 0-6	33.5	1138	1180	30.79%	18.65%	50.56%	-0.54	-50.9	12
2020-12-05	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	54.1	1130	1063	53.75%	18.54%	27.71%	+0.73	-1.7	17
2020-12-05	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.1	1063	1130	27.71%	18.54%	53.75%	-0.73	+1.7	6
2020-12-05	Flint Town United	W 6-3	40.4	1207	1079	60.64%	18.15%	21.21%	+1.19	+13.0	21
2020-12-05	@ Barry Town United	L 3-6	40.4	1079	1207	21.21%	18.15%	60.64%	-1.19	-13.0	9
2020-12-08	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	46.4	1065	1087	41.89%	18.78%	39.33%	+0.05	-11.8	6
2020-12-08	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	46.4	1087	1065	39.33%	18.78%	41.89%	-0.05	+11.8	15
2020-12-09	Bala Town	L 1-2	39.0	1133	1374	16.75%	17.70%	65.55%	-1.61	-5.3	10
2020-12-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	39.0	1374	1133	65.55%	17.70%	16.75%	+1.61	+5.3	32
2020-12-12	Barry Town United	W 2-0	42.2	1099	1220	28.64%	18.58%	52.78%	-0.70	+28.9	18
2020-12-12	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	42.2	1220	1099	52.78%	18.58%	28.64%	+0.70	-28.9	21
2020-12-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-1	34.2	1379	1166	68.48%	17.33%	14.20%	+1.84	+11.1	35
2020-12-12	@ Bala Town	L 1-4	34.2	1166	1379	14.20%	17.33%	68.48%	-1.84	-11.1	16
2020-12-12	Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	43.8	1053	1128	34.46%	18.73%	46.80%	-0.35	+31.8	9
2020-12-12	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-4	43.8	1128	1053	46.80%	18.73%	34.46%	+0.35	-31.8	17
2020-12-12	The New Saints	W 2-0	48.0	1417	1504	32.82%	18.70%	48.48%	-0.45	+26.8	38
2020-12-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	48.0	1504	1417	48.48%	18.70%	32.82%	+0.45	-26.8	38
2020-12-15	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	47.4	1128	1128	44.97%	18.76%	36.27%	+0.22	-12.6	10
2020-12-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	47.4	1128	1128	36.27%	18.76%	44.97%	-0.22	+12.6	21
2020-12-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	36.9	1230	1155	54.85%	18.49%	26.66%	+0.80	+8.6	21
2020-12-15	@ Penybont	L 0-1	36.9	1155	1230	26.66%	18.49%	54.85%	-0.80	-8.6	16
2020-12-15	Cefn Druids	L 1-2	46.6	1066	1085	42.37%	18.78%	38.86%	+0.08	-11.9	9
2020-12-15	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	46.6	1085	1066	38.86%	18.78%	42.37%	-0.08	+12.0	12
2020-12-15	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.7	1151	1478	11.10%	16.71%	72.19%	-2.26	-13.5	10
2020-12-15	@ Newtown	W 4-0	27.7	1478	1151	72.19%	16.71%	11.10%	+2.26	+13.5	41
2020-12-16	Barry Town United	W 2-1	48.7	1097	1191	31.93%	18.68%	49.39%	-0.50	+13.6	20
2020-12-16	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	48.7	1191	1097	49.39%	18.68%	31.93%	+0.50	-13.6	21
2020-12-18	Newtown	D 1-1	54.0	1140	1138	45.35%	18.75%	35.89%	+0.24	-0.6	22
2020-12-18	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.0	1138	1140	35.89%	18.75%	45.35%	-0.24	+0.6	11
2020-12-19	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	38.0	1054	1115	36.42%	18.76%	44.82%	-0.24	+36.4	12
2020-12-19	@ Flint Town United	L 0-3	38.0	1115	1054	44.82%	18.76%	36.42%	+0.24	-36.4	10
2020-12-19	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	34.8	1444	1146	74.34%	16.26%	9.40%	+2.48	+5.2	41
2020-12-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	34.8	1146	1444	9.40%	16.26%	74.34%	-2.48	-5.2	16
2020-12-19	Cefn Druids	W 4-1	37.6	1177	1097	55.38%	18.47%	26.15%	+0.83	+19.5	24
2020-12-19	@ Barry Town United	L 1-4	37.6	1097	1177	26.15%	18.47%	55.38%	-0.83	-19.5	12
2020-12-19	Penybont	W 2-1	39.1	1491	1239	71.36%	16.86%	11.77%	+2.14	+3.8	44
2020-12-19	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	39.1	1239	1491	11.77%	16.86%	71.36%	-2.14	-3.8	21
2021-03-02	Penybont	W 2-0	41.4	1139	1235	31.64%	18.67%	49.69%	-0.51	+27.4	14
2021-03-02	@ Newtown	L 0-2	41.4	1235	1139	49.69%	18.67%	31.64%	+0.51	-27.4	21
2021-03-06	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.6	1140	1079	53.05%	18.57%	28.39%	+0.68	-1.2	23
2021-03-06	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.6	1079	1140	28.39%	18.57%	53.05%	-0.68	+1.2	11
2021-03-06	Bala Town	D 0-0	56.0	1495	1390	58.16%	18.32%	23.52%	+1.02	-2.6	45
2021-03-06	@ The New Saints	D 0-0	56.0	1390	1495	23.52%	18.32%	58.16%	-1.02	+2.6	36
2021-03-06	Barry Town United	L 0-1	37.4	1078	1197	28.83%	18.58%	52.58%	-0.69	-9.2	12
2021-03-06	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	37.4	1197	1078	52.58%	18.58%	28.83%	+0.69	+9.2	27
2021-03-06	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	41.0	1110	1141	40.67%	18.78%	40.54%	-0.01	+12.2	23
2021-03-06	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	41.0	1141	1110	40.54%	18.78%	40.67%	+0.01	-12.2	16
2021-03-06	Newtown	W 2-1	37.2	1449	1166	73.42%	16.46%	10.11%	+2.37	+3.2	44
2021-03-06	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	37.2	1166	1449	10.11%	16.46%	73.42%	-2.37	-3.2	14
2021-03-06	Penybont	L 0-1	37.5	1091	1208	29.11%	18.59%	52.30%	-0.67	-9.3	12
2021-03-06	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	37.5	1208	1091	52.30%	18.59%	29.11%	+0.67	+9.3	24
2021-03-09	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	31.2	1082	1452	8.91%	16.10%	74.99%	-2.60	-3.0	12
2021-03-09	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	31.2	1452	1082	74.99%	16.10%	8.91%	+2.60	+3.0	47
2021-03-09	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	46.5	1080	1122	38.98%	18.78%	42.24%	-0.10	+11.9	14
2021-03-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	46.5	1122	1080	42.24%	18.78%	38.98%	+0.10	-11.9	23
2021-03-09	Newtown	L 2-4	45.7	1068	1163	31.95%	18.68%	49.37%	-0.50	-14.6	12
2021-03-09	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-2	45.7	1163	1068	49.37%	18.68%	31.95%	+0.50	+14.6	17
2021-03-09	Penybont	L 0-1	42.1	1206	1217	43.45%	18.77%	37.77%	+0.14	-12.9	27
2021-03-09	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	42.1	1217	1206	37.77%	18.77%	43.45%	-0.14	+12.9	27
2021-03-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	35.9	1193	1092	57.78%	18.34%	23.88%	+0.99	+7.8	30
2021-03-13	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	35.9	1092	1193	23.88%	18.34%	57.78%	-0.99	-7.8	14
2021-03-13	Bala Town	L 1-3	34.6	1054	1393	10.41%	16.54%	73.06%	-2.36	-5.8	12
2021-03-13	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	34.6	1393	1054	73.06%	16.54%	10.41%	+2.36	+5.8	39
2021-03-13	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	37.3	1078	1139	36.50%	18.76%	44.74%	-0.24	-21.2	12
2021-03-13	@ Flint Town United	W 2-0	37.3	1139	1078	44.74%	18.76%	36.50%	+0.24	+21.1	26
2021-03-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-1	38.7	1177	1129	51.50%	18.62%	29.88%	+0.59	+21.9	20
2021-03-13	@ Newtown	L 1-4	38.7	1129	1177	29.88%	18.62%	51.50%	-0.59	-21.9	16
2021-03-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	51.9	1230	1455	18.03%	17.85%	64.12%	-1.49	+3.6	28
2021-03-13	@ Penybont	D 0-0	51.9	1455	1230	64.12%	17.85%	18.03%	+1.49	-3.6	48
2021-03-13	The New Saints	W 2-1	56.6	1110	1492	8.42%	15.94%	75.63%	-2.68	+20.4	26
2021-03-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	56.6	1492	1110	75.63%	15.94%	8.42%	+2.68	-20.4	45
2021-03-16	Barry Town United	W 1-0	38.6	1234	1201	49.42%	18.68%	31.90%	+0.47	+10.0	31
2021-03-16	@ Penybont	L 0-1	38.6	1201	1234	31.90%	18.68%	49.42%	-0.47	-10.0	30
2021-03-16	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	24.5	1472	1048	80.70%	14.33%	4.98%	+3.44	+7.3	48
2021-03-16	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	24.5	1048	1472	4.98%	14.33%	80.70%	-3.44	-7.3	12
2021-03-16	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	48.0	1399	1451	37.51%	18.77%	43.72%	-0.18	-18.7	39
2021-03-16	@ Bala Town	W 3-1	48.0	1451	1399	43.72%	18.77%	37.51%	+0.18	+18.7	51
2021-03-20	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	54.7	1380	1160	69.00%	17.25%	13.75%	+1.89	-18.7	39
2021-03-20	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	54.7	1160	1380	13.75%	17.25%	69.00%	-1.89	+18.7	29
2021-03-20	Cefn Druids	D 0-0	50.0	1107	1041	53.66%	18.54%	27.80%	+0.72	-1.9	17
2021-03-20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.0	1041	1107	27.80%	18.54%	53.66%	-0.72	+1.9	13
2021-03-20	Flint Town United	L 1-2	53.4	1244	1057	66.23%	17.62%	16.15%	+1.64	-17.9	31
2021-03-20	@ Penybont	W 2-1	53.4	1057	1244	16.15%	17.62%	66.23%	-1.64	+17.9	15
2021-03-20	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	28.6	1470	1131	76.71%	15.65%	7.63%	+2.80	+4.9	54
2021-03-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	28.6	1131	1470	7.63%	15.65%	76.71%	-2.80	-4.9	26
2021-03-20	Newtown	W 1-0	44.4	1084	1199	29.36%	18.60%	52.04%	-0.65	+15.1	17
2021-03-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	44.4	1199	1084	52.04%	18.60%	29.36%	+0.65	-15.1	20
2021-03-27	Bala Town	W 6-2	48.2	1191	1361	23.15%	18.29%	58.56%	-1.07	+42.8	33
2021-03-27	@ Barry Town United	L 2-6	48.2	1361	1191	58.56%	18.29%	23.15%	+1.07	-42.8	39
2021-03-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	47.1	1178	1105	54.60%	18.50%	26.90%	+0.78	+7.7	32
2021-03-27	@ Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	47.1	1105	1178	26.90%	18.50%	54.60%	-0.78	-7.7	17
2021-03-27	Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	40.4	1184	1126	52.67%	18.58%	28.75%	+0.66	-41.9	20
2021-03-27	@ Newtown	W 3-0	40.4	1126	1184	28.75%	18.58%	52.67%	-0.66	+41.9	29
2021-03-27	Penybont	D 1-1	54.1	1099	1226	27.99%	18.55%	53.46%	-0.74	+1.7	18
2021-03-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1226	1099	53.46%	18.55%	27.99%	+0.74	-1.7	32
2021-03-27	The New Saints	L 0-6	26.2	1075	1479	7.54%	15.62%	76.84%	-2.85	-13.4	15
2021-03-27	@ Flint Town United	W 6-0	26.2	1479	1075	76.84%	15.62%	7.54%	+2.85	+13.4	51
2021-04-02	Barry Town United	L 1-2	41.9	1097	1234	26.79%	18.50%	54.71%	-0.82	-8.1	17
2021-04-02	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	41.9	1234	1097	54.71%	18.50%	26.79%	+0.82	+8.1	36
2021-04-02	Caernarfon Town	W 4-1	33.3	1493	1186	74.86%	16.14%	9.00%	+2.55	+7.1	54
2021-04-02	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	33.3	1186	1493	9.00%	16.14%	74.86%	-2.55	-7.1	32
2021-04-02	Cefn Druids	W 3-1	40.4	1101	1042	52.73%	18.58%	28.70%	+0.67	+15.0	21
2021-04-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	40.4	1042	1101	28.70%	18.58%	52.73%	-0.67	-15.0	13
2021-04-02	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-5	31.7	1142	1475	10.73%	16.62%	72.65%	-2.31	-10.9	20
2021-04-02	@ Newtown	W 5-1	31.7	1475	1142	72.65%	16.62%	10.73%	+2.31	+10.9	57
2021-04-02	Flint Town United	W 5-0	26.9	1318	1062	71.68%	16.81%	11.51%	+2.17	+17.3	42
2021-04-02	@ Bala Town	L 0-5	26.9	1062	1318	11.51%	16.81%	71.68%	-2.17	-17.3	15
2021-04-02	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	35.2	1224	1168	52.43%	18.59%	28.98%	+0.65	+17.4	35
2021-04-02	@ Penybont	L 0-2	35.2	1168	1224	28.98%	18.59%	52.43%	-0.65	-17.4	29

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2021-04-09	Newtown	L 1-2	46.7	1116	1131	42.85%	18.78%	38.37%	+0.10	-12.1	0
2021-04-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	46.7	1131	1116	38.37%	18.78%	42.85%	-0.10	+12.1	3
2021-04-10	Barry Town United	L 0-1	39.9	1179	1242	36.15%	18.76%	45.09%	-0.26	-11.1	0
2021-04-10	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	39.9	1242	1179	45.09%	18.76%	36.15%	+0.26	+11.1	3
2021-04-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	39.1	1045	1089	38.72%	18.78%	42.51%	-0.12	+24.0	3
2021-04-10	@ Flint Town United	L 0-2	39.1	1089	1045	42.51%	18.78%	38.72%	+0.12	-24.0	0
2021-04-10	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	49.7	1028	1150	28.40%	18.57%	53.03%	-0.71	+14.5	3
2021-04-10	@ Cefn Druids	L 1-2	49.7	1150	1028	53.03%	18.57%	28.40%	+0.71	-14.5	0
2021-04-10	Penybont	L 0-2	49.3	1486	1241	70.84%	16.96%	12.21%	+2.08	-38.3	0
2021-04-10	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	49.3	1241	1486	12.21%	16.96%	70.84%	-2.08	+38.3	3
2021-04-10	The New Saints	L 0-1	40.3	1336	1500	23.81%	18.34%	57.86%	-1.03	-7.8	0
2021-04-10	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	40.3	1500	1336	57.86%	18.34%	23.81%	+1.03	+7.8	3
2021-04-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	38.4	1136	1104	49.34%	18.68%	31.98%	+0.46	+10.0	3
2021-04-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	38.4	1104	1136	31.98%	18.68%	49.34%	-0.46	-10.0	0
2021-04-13	Bala Town	L 2-3	51.4	1280	1328	38.16%	18.77%	43.06%	-0.15	-10.4	3
2021-04-13	@ Penybont	W 3-2	51.4	1328	1280	43.06%	18.77%	38.16%	+0.15	+10.4	3
2021-04-13	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	33.6	1069	1042	48.60%	18.70%	32.71%	+0.42	+45.1	6
2021-04-13	@ Flint Town United	L 0-5	33.6	1042	1069	32.71%	18.70%	48.60%	-0.42	-45.1	3
2021-04-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-6	31.7	1168	1448	13.91%	17.28%	68.82%	-1.91	-17.2	0
2021-04-13	@ Caernarfon Town	W 6-1	31.7	1448	1168	68.82%	17.28%	13.91%	+1.91	+17.2	3
2021-04-13	Newtown	D 2-2	59.5	1065	1143	34.03%	18.72%	47.25%	-0.38	+0.6	1
2021-04-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	59.5	1143	1065	47.25%	18.72%	34.03%	+0.38	-0.6	4
2021-04-13	The New Saints	L 0-6	31.4	1253	1507	15.69%	17.55%	66.75%	-1.71	-27.8	3
2021-04-13	@ Barry Town United	W 6-0	31.4	1507	1253	66.75%	17.55%	15.69%	+1.71	+27.8	6
2021-04-16	Flint Town United	L 0-1	41.5	1094	1114	42.21%	18.78%	39.01%	+0.07	-12.6	0
2021-04-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	41.5	1114	1094	39.01%	18.78%	42.21%	-0.07	+12.6	9
2021-04-17	Barry Town United	W 1-0	33.8	1465	1225	70.49%	17.02%	12.50%	+2.04	+4.3	6
2021-04-17	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	33.8	1225	1465	12.50%	17.02%	70.49%	-2.04	-4.3	3
2021-04-17	Caernarfon Town	W 5-2	37.7	1338	1151	66.34%	17.61%	16.06%	+1.65	+10.8	6
2021-04-17	@ Bala Town	L 2-5	37.7	1151	1338	16.06%	17.61%	66.34%	-1.65	-10.8	0
2021-04-17	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	44.4	997	1066	35.35%	18.75%	45.90%	-0.30	-10.3	3
2021-04-17	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-1	44.4	1066	997	45.90%	18.75%	35.35%	+0.30	+10.3	4
2021-04-17	Haverfordwest County	W 5-1	39.1	1143	1146	44.53%	18.76%	36.71%	+0.19	+33.6	7
2021-04-17	@ Newtown	L 1-5	39.1	1146	1143	36.71%	18.76%	44.53%	-0.19	-33.6	3
2021-04-17	Penybont	W 1-0	35.2	1535	1269	72.31%	16.69%	11.00%	+2.24	+3.8	9
2021-04-17	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	35.2	1269	1535	11.00%	16.69%	72.31%	-2.24	-3.8	3
2021-04-20	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	34.1	987	1081	31.92%	18.68%	49.40%	-0.50	-27.5	3
2021-04-20	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	34.1	1081	987	49.40%	18.68%	31.92%	+0.50	+27.5	3
2021-04-20	Bala Town	W 2-0	36.8	1469	1349	59.83%	18.21%	21.96%	+1.13	+13.6	9
2021-04-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	36.8	1349	1469	21.96%	18.21%	59.83%	-1.13	-13.6	6
2021-04-20	Haverfordwest County	W 6-1	39.4	1076	1112	39.81%	18.78%	41.41%	-0.06	+45.4	7
2021-04-20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-6	39.4	1112	1076	41.41%	18.78%	39.81%	+0.06	-45.4	3
2021-04-20	Newtown	L 0-2	37.8	1126	1176	37.92%	18.77%	43.31%	-0.16	-21.8	9
2021-04-20	@ Flint Town United	W 2-0	37.8	1176	1126	43.31%	18.77%	37.92%	+0.16	+21.8	10
2021-04-20	Penybont	D 3-3	64.1	1221	1266	38.66%	18.78%	42.56%	-0.12	+0.2	4
2021-04-20	@ Barry Town United	D 3-3	64.1	1266	1221	42.56%	18.78%	38.66%	+0.12	-0.1	4
2021-04-20	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.4	1140	1539	7.73%	15.69%	76.59%	-2.81	-5.0	0
2021-04-20	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	29.4	1539	1140	76.59%	15.69%	7.73%	+2.81	+5.0	12
2021-04-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.0	1109	1121	43.24%	18.77%	37.99%	+0.12	-0.3	4
2021-04-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.0	1121	1109	37.99%	18.77%	43.24%	-0.12	+0.3	8
2021-04-24	Barry Town United	W 1-0	36.1	1336	1221	59.24%	18.25%	22.51%	+1.09	+7.4	9
2021-04-24	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	36.1	1221	1336	22.51%	18.25%	59.24%	-1.09	-7.4	4
2021-04-24	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	32.6	1265	1135	60.93%	18.13%	20.94%	+1.21	+13.1	7
2021-04-24	@ Penybont	L 0-2	32.6	1135	1265	20.94%	18.13%	60.93%	-1.21	-13.1	0
2021-04-24	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	27.1	1198	959	70.42%	17.03%	12.55%	+2.04	+18.8	13
2021-04-24	@ Newtown	L 0-5	27.1	959	1198	12.55%	17.03%	70.42%	-2.04	-18.8	3
2021-04-24	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-4	56.6	1544	1483	53.04%	18.57%	28.39%	+0.68	-35.6	12
2021-04-24	@ The New Saints	W 4-1	56.6	1483	1544	28.39%	18.57%	53.04%	-0.68	+35.6	12
2021-04-24	Flint Town United	D 0-0	49.9	1067	1104	39.68%	18.78%	41.53%	-0.06	+0.1	4
2021-04-24	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	49.9	1104	1067	41.53%	18.78%	39.68%	+0.06	-0.1	10
2021-04-27	Barry Town United	W 2-0	35.1	1279	1214	53.51%	18.55%	27.95%	+0.71	+16.9	10
2021-04-27	@ Penybont	L 0-2	35.1	1214	1279	27.95%	18.55%	53.51%	-0.71	-16.9	4
2021-04-27	Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	52.2	1508	1122	79.05%	14.93%	6.02%	+3.16	-5.9	13
2021-04-27	@ The New Saints	D 0-0	52.2	1122	1508	6.02%	14.93%	79.05%	-3.16	+5.9	1
2021-04-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	37.5	1067	1122	37.29%	18.77%	43.94%	-0.19	-21.5	4
2021-04-27	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	37.5	1122	1067	43.94%	18.77%	37.29%	+0.19	+21.5	11
2021-04-27	Cefn Druids	W 5-1	33.0	1108	940	64.59%	17.80%	17.61%	+1.50	+17.6	7
2021-04-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-5	33.0	940	1108	17.61%	17.80%	64.59%	-1.50	-17.6	3
2021-04-27	Flint Town United	W 1-0	35.5	1217	1104	59.03%	18.26%	22.70%	+1.08	+7.5	16
2021-04-27	@ Newtown	L 0-1	35.5	1104	1217	22.70%	18.26%	59.03%	-1.08	-7.5	10
2021-04-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	56.6	1343	1518	22.62%	18.26%	59.13%	-1.11	+16.1	12
2021-04-28	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	56.6	1518	1343	59.13%	18.26%	22.62%	+1.11	-16.1	12
2021-04-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-1	38.3	1143	1126	47.35%	18.72%	33.93%	+0.35	+31.5	14
2021-04-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-5	38.3	1126	1143	33.93%	18.72%	47.35%	-0.35	-31.5	7
2021-04-30	Newtown	L 0-7	27.9	923	1224	12.50%	17.02%	70.48%	-2.07	-25.8	3
2021-04-30	@ Cefn Druids	W 7-0	27.9	1224	923	70.48%	17.02%	12.50%	+2.07	+25.8	19
2021-05-01	Bala Town	L 1-4	37.5	1197	1359	23.99%	18.35%	57.67%	-1.01	-18.1	4
2021-05-01	@ Barry Town United	W 4-1	37.5	1359	1197	57.67%	18.35%	23.99%	+1.01	+18.1	15
2021-05-01	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	35.2	1097	1046	51.82%	18.61%	29.57%	+0.61	+17.7	13
2021-05-01	@ Flint Town United	L 0-2	35.2	1046	1097	29.57%	18.61%	51.82%	-0.61	-17.7	4
2021-05-01	Penybont	D 2-2	59.8	1128	1295	23.42%	18.31%	58.27%	-1.05	+1.8	2
2021-05-01	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.8	1295	1128	58.27%	18.31%	23.42%	+1.05	-1.8	11
2021-05-01	The New Saints	D 0-0	60.1	1502	1502	44.99%	18.76%	36.25%	+0.22	-0.6	13
2021-05-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	60.1	1502	1502	36.25%	18.76%	44.99%	-0.22	+0.6	14
2021-05-04	Bala Town	W 3-0	44.5	1130	1377	16.22%	17.63%	66.16%	-1.66	+52.1	5
2021-05-04	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	44.5	1377	1130	66.16%	17.63%	16.22%	+1.66	-52.1	15
2021-05-04	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	55.6	1250	1175	54.82%	18.49%	26.69%	+0.80	-14.2	19
2021-05-04	@ Newtown	W 3-2	55.6	1175	1250	26.69%	18.49%	54.82%	-0.80	+14.2	17
2021-05-04	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	38.3	1179	1502	11.27%	16.75%	71.98%	-2.23	-3.6	4
2021-05-04	@ Barry Town United	W 2-1	38.3	1502	1179	71.98%	16.75%	11.27%	+2.23	+3.6	16
2021-05-04	Flint Town United	L 0-6	29.5	897	1115	18.65%	17.91%	63.43%	-1.43	-32.6	3
2021-05-04	@ Cefn Druids	W 6-0	29.5	1115	897	63.43%	17.91%	18.65%	+1.43	+32.6	16
2021-05-04	Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	59.5	1094	1028	53.72%	18.54%	27.74%	+0.73	-1.3	8
2021-05-04	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	59.5	1028	1094	27.74%	18.54%	53.72%	-0.73	+1.3	5
2021-05-04	The New Saints	L 0-3	33.7	1294	1503	19.38%	17.99%	62.63%	-1.37	-17.7	11
2021-05-04	@ Penybont	W 3-0	33.7	1503	1294	62.63%	17.99%	19.38%	+1.37	+17.7	17
2021-05-08	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	50.0	1147	1093	52.17%	18.60%	29.23%	+0.63	-1.7	17
2021-05-08	@ Flint Town United	D 0-0	50.0	1093	1147	29.23%	18.60%	52.17%	-0.63	+1.7	9
2021-05-08	Barry Town United	W 3-0	27.7	1521	1175	77.04%	15.56%	7.40%	+2.85	+6.9	20
2021-05-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	27.7	1175	1521	7.40%	15.56%	77.04%	-2.85	-6.9	4
2021-05-08	Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	27.1	1505	1182	75.86%	15.89%	8.26%	+2.68	+10.1	19
2021-05-08	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	27.1	1182	1505	8.26%	15.89%	75.86%	-2.68	-10.1	5
2021-05-08	Cefn Druids	W 6-0	25.8	1189	864	75.90%	15.87%	8.22%	+2.69	+14.7	20
2021-05-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-6	25.8	864	1189	8.22%	15.87%	75.90%	-2.69	-14.7	3
2021-05-08	Newtown	L 1-2	39.5	1029	1236	19.62%	18.01%	62.37%	-1.35	-6.2	5
2021-05-08	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	39.5	1236	1029	62.37%	18.01%	19.62%	+1.35	+6.2	22
2021-05-08	Penybont	W 1-0	38.6	1325	1276	51.54%	18.62%	29.84%	+0.59	+9.5	18
2021-05-08	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	38.6	1276	1325	29.84%	18.62%	51.54%	-0.59	-9.5	11
2021-05-15	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-4	42.5	1242	1095	62.62%	17.99%	19.39%	+1.34	-64.5	22
2021-05-15	@ Newtown	W 4-0	42.5	1095	1242	19.39%	17.99%	62.62%	-1.34	+64.5	12
2021-05-15	Bala Town	W 2-0	35.9	1528	1335	66.81%	17.55%	15.64%	+1.69	+10.0	23
2021-05-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	35.9	1335	1528	15.64%	17.55%	66.81%	-1.69	-10.0	18
2021-05-15	Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	50.1	1168	1172	44.53%	18.76%	36.70%	+0.20	+10.1	7
2021-05-15	@ Barry Town United	L 2-3	50.1	1172	1168	36.70%	18.76%	44.53%	-0.20	-10.1	5
2021-05-15	Cefn Druids	W 2-0	31.2	1023	850	65.08%	17.75%	17.17%	+1.54	+10.9	8
2021-05-15	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	31.2	850	1023	17.17%	17.75%	65.08%	-1.54	-10.9	3
2021-05-15	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	34.1	1266	1515	16.11%	17.61%	66.28%	-1.67	-10.2	11
2021-05-15	@ Penybont	W 2-0	34.1	1515	1266	66.28%	17.61%	16.11%	+1.67	+10.2	22
2021-05-15	Flint Town United	W 2-1	42.5	1203	1146	52.65%	18.58%	28.77%	+0.66	+8.6	23
2021-05-15	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	42.5	1146	1203	28.77%	18.58%	52.65%	-0.66	-8.7	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2021-03-13	8.42%	@ Haverfordwest County	1110	2	The New Saints	1492	1
2	2021-04-10	12.21%	Penybont	1241	2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1486	0
3	2021-03-20	13.75%	Caernarfon Town	1160	2	@ Bala Town	1380	1
4	2020-10-03	14.64%	Haverfordwest County	1104	2	@ Bala Town	1311	1
5	2021-03-20	16.15%	Flint Town United	1057	2	@ Penybont	1244	1
6	2021-05-04	16.22%	@ Caernarfon Town	1130	3	Bala Town	1377	0
7	2021-05-15	19.39%	Aberystwyth Town	1095	4	@ Newtown	1242	0
8	2020-10-09	21.77%	Cefn Druids	1075	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1197	1
9	2021-04-28	22.62%	@ Bala Town	1343	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1518	1
10	2021-03-27	23.15%	@ Barry Town United	1191	6	Bala Town	1361	2
11	2020-11-28	23.22%	Haverfordwest County	1066	4	@ Caernarfon Town	1174	1
12	2020-09-30	26.18%	Penybont	1122	1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1202	0
13	2021-05-04	26.69%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1175	3	@ Newtown	1250	2
14	2021-04-24	28.39%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1483	4	@ The New Saints	1544	1
15	2021-04-10	28.40%	@ Cefn Druids	1028	2	Haverfordwest County	1150	1
16	2020-12-12	28.64%	@ Caernarfon Town	1099	2	Barry Town United	1220	0
17	2021-03-27	28.75%	Haverfordwest County	1126	3	@ Newtown	1184	0
18	2020-09-23	29.23%	Flint Town United	1136	2	@ Cefn Druids	1190	1
19	2021-03-20	29.36%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1084	1	Newtown	1199	0
20	2020-11-21	29.45%	Flint Town United	1055	3	@ Haverfordwest County	1107	0
21	2021-03-02	31.64%	@ Newtown	1139	2	Penybont	1235	0
22	2020-12-16	31.93%	@ Haverfordwest County	1097	2	Barry Town United	1191	1
23	2020-12-12	32.82%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1417	2	The New Saints	1504	0
24	2020-10-10	33.11%	Haverfordwest County	1078	2	@ Flint Town United	1102	0
25	2020-10-03	33.80%	Caernarfon Town	1168	3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1186	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-05-15	64.48	Aberystwyth Town	4	1095	19.39%	@ Newtown	0	1242	62.62%	17.99%
2	2021-05-04	52.08	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1130	16.22%	Bala Town	0	1377	66.16%	17.63%
3	2020-12-05	50.93	@ Penybont	6	1180	50.56%	Caernarfon Town	0	1138	30.79%	18.65%
4	2021-04-20	45.42	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	6	1076	39.81%	Haverfordwest County	1	1112	41.41%	18.78%
5	2020-10-06	45.24	Aberystwyth Town	4	1140	38.97%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1120	42.25%	18.78%
6	2021-04-13	45.13	@ Flint Town United	5	1069	48.60%	Cefn Druids	0	1042	32.71%	18.70%
7	2020-10-06	44.17	Penybont	4	1151	40.18%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1122	41.04%	18.78%
8	2021-03-27	42.76	@ Barry Town United	6	1191	23.15%	Bala Town	2	1361	58.56%	18.29%
9	2021-03-27	41.94	Haverfordwest County	3	1126	28.75%	@ Newtown	0	1184	52.67%	18.58%
10	2020-11-21	41.41	Flint Town United	3	1055	29.45%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1107	51.95%	18.61%
11	2020-11-28	38.98	Haverfordwest County	4	1066	23.22%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1174	58.48%	18.30%
12	2021-04-10	38.33	Penybont	2	1241	12.21%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1486	70.84%	16.96%
13	2020-10-03	38.24	Caernarfon Town	3	1168	33.80%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1186	47.48%	18.72%
14	2020-12-19	36.39	@ Flint Town United	3	1054	36.42%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1115	44.82%	18.76%
15	2021-04-24	35.59	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1483	28.39%	@ The New Saints	1	1544	53.04%	18.57%
16	2021-04-17	33.60	@ Newtown	5	1143	44.53%	Haverfordwest County	1	1146	36.71%	18.76%
17	2020-10-14	33.05	@ Bala Town	4	1308	52.42%	Barry Town United	0	1252	28.99%	18.59%
18	2021-05-04	32.64	Flint Town United	6	1115	63.43%	@ Cefn Druids	0	897	18.65%	17.91%
19	2020-12-12	31.84	@ Cefn Druids	4	1053	34.46%	Haverfordwest County	1	1128	46.80%	18.73%
20	2021-04-30	31.47	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1143	47.35%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1126	33.93%	18.72%
21	2020-10-03	29.26	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1352	61.98%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1150	19.97%	18.04%
22	2020-12-12	28.93	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1099	28.64%	Barry Town United	0	1220	52.78%	18.58%
23	2020-10-03	27.83	@ The New Saints	10	1424	74.13%	Flint Town United	0	1130	9.56%	16.30%
24	2021-04-13	27.75	The New Saints	6	1507	66.75%	@ Barry Town United	0	1253	15.69%	17.55%
25	2021-04-20	27.46	Aberystwyth Town	3	1081	49.40%	@ Cefn Druids	0	987	31.92%	18.68%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-04-20	64.1	@ Barry Town United	3	1221	38.66%	Penybont	3	1266	42.56%	18.78%
2	2020-10-16	61.4	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1170	11.70%	The New Saints	2	1485	71.46%	16.85%
3	2021-05-01	60.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1502	44.99%	The New Saints	0	1502	36.25%	18.76%
4	2021-05-01	59.8	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1128	23.42%	Penybont	2	1295	58.27%	18.31%
5	2021-03-06	59.6	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1140	53.05%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1079	28.39%	18.57%
6	2020-09-19	59.5	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1126	38.82%	Newtown	2	1170	42.40%	18.78%
7	2021-04-13	59.5	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1065	34.03%	Newtown	2	1143	47.25%	18.72%
8	2021-05-04	59.5	@ Aberystwyth Town	2	1094	53.72%	Haverfordwest County	2	1028	27.74%	18.54%
9	2020-11-07	58.7	@ Bala Town	1	1356	27.85%	The New Saints	1	1484	53.61%	18.54%
10	2021-03-13	56.6	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1110	8.42%	The New Saints	1	1492	75.63%	15.94%
11	2021-04-24	56.6	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1483	28.39%	@ The New Saints	1	1544	53.04%	18.57%
12	2021-04-28	56.6	@ Bala Town	2	1343	22.62%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1518	59.13%	18.26%
13	2021-03-06	56.0	@ The New Saints	0	1495	58.16%	Bala Town	0	1390	23.52%	18.32%
14	2021-05-04	55.6	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1175	26.69%	@ Newtown	2	1250	54.82%	18.49%
15	2020-09-12	54.9	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1322	51.11%	Bala Town	1	1276	30.26%	18.63%
16	2020-12-01	54.8	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1135	16.36%	Bala Town	1	1380	65.99%	17.65%
17	2020-12-05	54.8	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1163	18.96%	Bala Town	1	1377	63.09%	17.95%
18	2020-10-31	54.7	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1104	15.58%	Bala Town	1	1360	66.88%	17.54%
19	2021-03-20	54.7	Caernarfon Town	2	1160	13.75%	@ Bala Town	1	1380	69.00%	17.25%
20	2020-10-10	54.2	@ Newtown	1	1176	34.24%	Barry Town United	1	1253	47.03%	18.73%
21	2020-11-29	54.2	@ Penybont	1	1182	59.07%	Cefn Druids	1	1069	22.67%	18.26%
22	2020-09-12	54.1	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1188	49.63%	Penybont	1	1153	31.70%	18.67%
23	2020-09-15	54.1	@ Penybont	1	1154	47.07%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1139	34.20%	18.73%
24	2020-09-25	54.1	@ Newtown	1	1170	46.43%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1159	34.83%	18.74%
25	2020-09-26	54.1	@ Cefn Druids	1	1176	41.30%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1202	39.91%	18.78%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2021-03-16	24.5	@ The New Saints	5	1472	80.70%	Cefn Druids	0	1048	4.98%	14.33%
2	2020-12-02	25.5	The New Saints	4	1496	77.90%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1072	6.80%	15.30%
3	2021-05-08	25.8	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	6	1189	75.90%	Cefn Druids	0	864	8.22%	15.87%
4	2021-03-27	26.2	The New Saints	6	1479	76.84%	@ Flint Town United	0	1075	7.54%	15.62%
5	2021-04-02	26.9	@ Bala Town	5	1318	71.68%	Flint Town United	0	1062	11.51%	16.81%
6	2021-04-24	27.1	@ Newtown	5	1198	70.42%	Cefn Druids	0	959	12.55%	17.03%
7	2021-05-08	27.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1505	75.86%	Caernarfon Town	0	1182	8.26%	15.89%
8	2020-12-15	27.7	The New Saints	4	1478	72.19%	@ Newtown	0	1151	11.10%	16.71%
9	2021-05-08	27.7	@ The New Saints	3	1521	77.04%	Barry Town United	0	1175	7.40%	15.56%
10	2021-04-30	27.9	Newtown	7	1224	70.48%	@ Cefn Druids	0	923	12.50%	17.02%
11	2020-10-03	28.2	@ The New Saints	10	1424	74.13%	Flint Town United	0	1130	9.56%	16.30%
12	2020-12-01	28.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1403	75.56%	Flint Town United	0	1085	8.48%	15.96%
13	2021-03-20	28.6	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1470	76.71%	Haverfordwest County	0	1131	7.63%	15.65%
14	2020-10-10	29.3	The New Saints	4	1459	67.54%	@ Penybont	0	1195	15.00%	17.45%
15	2021-04-20	29.4	The New Saints	2	1539	76.59%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1140	7.73%	15.69%
16	2021-05-04	29.5	Flint Town United	6	1115	63.43%	@ Cefn Druids	0	897	18.65%	17.91%
17	2020-09-27	29.8	The New Saints	4	1402	63.83%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1180	18.29%	17.88%
18	2020-10-03	30.1	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1352	61.98%	@ Cefn Druids	0	1150	19.97%	18.04%
19	2020-10-06	30.1	@ The New Saints	2	1452	72.51%	Newtown	0	1183	10.84%	16.65%
20	2021-03-09	31.2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1452	74.99%	@ Flint Town United	0	1082	8.91%	16.10%
21	2021-05-15	31.2	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1023	65.08%	Cefn Druids	0	850	17.17%	17.75%
22	2020-09-30	31.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1342	65.84%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1160	16.50%	17.66%
23	2021-04-13	31.4	The New Saints	6	1507	66.75%	@ Barry Town United	0	1253	15.69%	17.55%
24	2021-04-02	31.7	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1475	72.65%	@ Newtown	1	1142	10.73%	16.62%
25	2021-04-13	31.7	Connah's Quay Nomads	6	1448	68.82%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1168	13.91%	17.28%