2021-22 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

80 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Connah's Quay Nomads

9.66 points above expected

56 points · 46.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Penybont

5.24 points below expected

40 points · 45.24 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	18	3	1	57	61	17	+44	51.00	+6.00
2	Penybont	22	9	9	4	36	43	25	+18	33.84	+2.16
3	Newtown	22	10	5	7	35	38	26	+12	31.29	+3.71
4	Flint Town United	22	10	5	7	35	41	31	+10	30.09	+4.91
5	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	9	7	6	34	26	16	+10	26.19	+7.81
6	Bala Town	22	8	10	4	34	38	32	+6	37.74	-3.74
7	Caernarfon Town	22	9	4	9	31	35	37	-2	28.24	+2.76
8	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	6	9	7	27	21	28	-7	26.91	+0.09
9	Aberystwyth Town	22	7	4	11	25	23	30	-7	25.40	-0.40
10	Barry Town United	22	6	5	11	23	26	36	-10	27.13	-4.13
11	Haverfordwest County	22	5	7	10	22	21	35	-14	21.53	+0.47
12	Cefn Druids	22	0	2	20	2	14	74	-60	10.02	-8.02

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	25	5	2	80	86	26	+60	79.59	+0.41
2	Bala Town	32	16	11	5	59	67	37	+30	50.35	+8.65
3	Newtown	32	15	6	11	51	50	35	+15	47.20	+3.80
4	Caernarfon Town	32	13	4	15	43	46	53	-7	44.32	-1.32
5	Flint Town United	32	12	6	14	42	51	53	-2	44.57	-2.57
6	Penybont	32	10	10	12	40	49	57	-8	45.24	-5.24

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	15	11	6	56	44	18	+26	46.34	+9.66
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	10	12	10	42	35	38	-3	42.59	-0.59
3	Aberystwyth Town	32	11	7	14	40	38	45	-7	39.60	+0.40
4	Haverfordwest County	32	10	8	14	38	45	46	-1	34.00	+4.00
5	Barry Town United	32	8	7	17	31	31	47	-16	29.75	+1.25
6	Cefn Druids	32	2	3	27	9	22	109	-87	6.58	+2.42

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	56	46.34	+9.66
2	Bala Town	59	50.35	+8.65
3	Haverfordwest County	38	34.00	+4.00
4	Newtown	51	47.20	+3.80
5	Cefn Druids	9	6.58	+2.42

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Penybont	40	45.24	-5.24
2	Flint Town United	42	44.57	-2.57
3	Caernarfon Town	43	44.32	-1.32
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	42	42.59	-0.59
5	Aberystwyth Town	40	39.60	+0.40

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Newtown	4	Oct 2 – Oct 23	1 in 115
2	Aberystwyth Town	2	Nov 9 – Nov 19	1 in 34
3	Bala Town	4	Aug 31 – Oct 1	1 in 28
4	Haverfordwest County	4	Feb 26 – Mar 15	1 in 26
5	Barry Town United	3	Aug 28 – Sep 11	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Penybont	7	Mar 26 – Apr 23	1 in 435
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	Sep 11 – Sep 18	1 in 32
3	Barry Town United	4	Sep 18 – Oct 12	1 in 30
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	Oct 30 – Nov 19	1 in 21
5	Caernarfon Town	3	Oct 12 – Oct 30	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cardiff Metropolitan	11	Dec 4 – Mar 15	1 in 1,935
2	Haverfordwest County	6	Feb 11 – Mar 26	1 in 24
3	Flint Town United	6	Oct 9 – Nov 9	1 in 21
4	Caernarfon Town	5	Aug 31 – Oct 9	1 in 19
5	Bala Town	8	Aug 14 – Oct 9	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connah's Quay Nomads	8	Aug 28 – Oct 23	1 in 1,830
2	Bala Town	6	Oct 9 – Nov 9	1 in 64
3	Newtown	6	Jan 22 – Mar 4	1 in 31
4	Aberystwyth Town	5	Feb 11 – Mar 15	1 in 21
5	Penybont	7	Mar 26 – Apr 23	1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1545	80	+20	13	11.2	+1.8
Bala Town	1414	59	+55	13	8.6	+4.4
Connah's Quay Nomads	1422	56	+10	11	11.7	-0.7
Newtown	1286	51	+6	7	6.6	+0.4
Caernarfon Town	1201	43	+22	6	4.8	+1.2
Cardiff Metropolitan	1180	42	+1	7	7.5	-0.5
Flint Town United	1186	42	-19	4	4.9	-0.9
Aberystwyth Town	1136	40	+35	11	6.3	+4.7
Penybont	1156	40	-85	0	5.6	-5.6
Haverfordwest County	1156	38	-2	6	7.5	-1.5
Barry Town United	1099	31	-23	4	6.6	-2.6
Cefn Druids	844	9	-22	3	2.3	+0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BTU	CT	CM	CD	CQN	FTU	HC	NEW	PEN	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	0-1-1 1.79	3-1-0 5.20	0-1-1 2.48	1-1-2 5.03	3-1-0 9.02	0-1-3 2.19	0-0-2 2.40	2-1-1 5.88	1-0-1 2.25	0-0-2 2.01	1-0-1 0.88
Bala Town	1-1-0 3.74	—	0-2-0 3.74	3-1-0 7.46	0-2-0 3.65	1-1-0 5.05	1-0-1 2.01	4-0-0 7.24	1-1-0 4.20	3-1-0 6.13	2-1-1 6.82	0-1-3 2.94
Barry Town United	0-1-3 5.80	0-2-0 1.80	—	1-0-1 2.53	1-1-2 5.00	3-0-1 8.98	2-1-1 2.27	0-0-2 2.50	1-1-2 6.28	0-0-2 2.56	0-1-1 1.70	0-0-2 1.00
Caernarfon Town	1-1-0 3.02	0-1-3 3.60	1-0-1 2.98	—	2-0-0 2.69	2-0-0 4.59	0-1-1 1.23	3-0-1 5.16	2-0-0 3.41	0-0-4 4.88	2-1-1 4.51	0-0-4 1.87
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-1-1 5.98	0-2-0 1.87	2-1-1 6.02	0-0-2 2.81	—	3-0-1 9.33	0-3-1 2.54	0-1-1 2.78	2-1-1 6.41	0-2-0 2.06	1-0-1 2.17	0-1-1 0.89
Cefn Druids	0-1-3 2.21	0-1-1 0.67	1-0-3 2.25	0-0-2 1.04	1-0-3 1.96	—	0-0-4 0.89	0-1-1 1.01	0-0-4 2.45	0-0-2 0.96	0-0-2 0.82	0-0-2 0.24
Connah's Quay Nomads	3-1-0 9.05	1-0-1 3.51	1-1-2 8.96	1-1-0 4.37	1-3-0 8.64	4-0-0 10.69	—	1-1-0 4.03	2-2-0 9.14	1-0-1 3.90	0-2-0 4.02	0-0-2 2.09
Flint Town United	2-0-0 3.11	0-0-4 3.81	2-0-0 3.00	1-0-3 5.85	1-1-0 2.73	1-1-0 4.62	0-1-1 1.53	—	1-0-1 3.80	1-1-2 4.71	3-1-0 4.43	0-1-3 1.99
Haverfordwest County	1-1-2 5.14	0-1-1 1.38	2-1-1 4.75	0-0-2 2.11	1-1-2 4.62	4-0-0 8.75	0-2-2 2.11	1-0-1 1.74	—	1-1-0 1.60	0-1-1 1.62	0-0-2 0.74
Newtown	1-0-1 3.26	0-1-3 4.88	2-0-0 2.95	4-0-0 6.14	0-2-0 3.46	2-0-0 4.68	1-0-1 1.65	2-1-1 6.31	0-1-1 3.95	—	2-1-1 5.24	1-0-3 2.33
Penybont	2-0-0 3.52	1-1-2 4.23	1-1-0 3.84	1-1-2 6.52	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 4.86	0-2-0 1.54	0-1-3 6.60	1-1-0 3.93	1-1-2 5.77	—	0-2-2 2.32
The New Saints	1-0-1 4.78	3-1-0 8.19	2-0-0 4.63	4-0-0 9.43	1-1-0 4.76	2-0-0 5.63	2-0-0 3.42	3-1-0 9.29	2-0-0 4.96	3-0-1 8.88	2-2-0 8.89	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.82	+9.2
Allowed	0.70	-6.3
Differential	0.95	+4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	9.64%	6.25%	2.86%	2.08%	3.12%	30.21%
1	9.64%	11.98%	5.73%	2.08%	1.56%	1.30%	32.29%
2	6.25%	5.73%	2.08%	2.08%	0.52%	0.26%	16.93%
3	2.86%	2.08%	2.08%	3.12%	0.26%	0.52%	10.94%
4	2.08%	1.56%	0.52%	0.26%	—	—	4.43%
5+	3.12%	1.30%	0.26%	0.52%	—	—	5.21%
Total	30.21%	32.29%	16.93%	10.94%	4.43%	5.21%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.47	+0.00
SD	1.55	1.55	2.37
CV	1.05	1.05	—
Max	11	11	+11
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	21.88%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
1	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	28.12%
2	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
3	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	28.12%	40.62%	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.41	-0.22
SD	1.47	1.46	2.25
CV	1.24	1.04	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	18.75%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	6.25%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
Total	46.88%	15.62%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.16	+0.94
SD	2.23	1.32	2.53
CV	1.07	1.14	—
Max	11	4	+11
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	37.50%
1	12.50%	12.50%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	43.75%
2	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
3	—	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	34.38%	31.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	1.47	-0.50
SD	1.06	1.05	1.39
CV	1.10	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
1	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	6.25%	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	3.12%	18.75%
4	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	28.12%	15.62%	21.88%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.66	-0.22
SD	1.29	1.41	2.03
CV	0.90	0.85	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.75%	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	3.12%	43.75%
1	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	28.12%
2	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	31.25%	28.12%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	1.19	-0.09
SD	1.33	1.28	1.86
CV	1.21	1.08	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%
1	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%
2	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
3	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	15.62%	9.38%	18.75%	15.62%	34.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.69	3.41	-2.72
SD	0.86	1.90	2.10
CV	1.25	0.56	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	15.62%	21.88%	—	3.12%	—	—	40.62%
2	15.62%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	59.38%	31.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	0.56	+0.81
SD	1.29	0.84	1.71
CV	0.94	1.49	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
1	9.38%	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	40.62%
2	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	15.62%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.66	-0.06
SD	1.41	1.43	2.26
CV	0.89	0.86	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	34.38%
1	6.25%	9.38%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	28.12%
2	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	28.12%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	34.38%	28.12%	18.75%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.44	-0.03
SD	1.70	1.63	2.48
CV	1.21	1.13	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	34.38%
2	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	37.50%	31.25%	21.88%	3.12%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.09	+0.47
SD	1.46	1.15	2.09
CV	0.93	1.05	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	6.25%	28.12%
1	3.12%	15.62%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	28.12%
2	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
3	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	37.50%	12.50%	21.88%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.78	-0.25
SD	1.54	2.09	2.95
CV	1.01	1.17	—
Max	7	11	+6
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
1	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	21.88%
2	6.25%	15.62%	—	—	—	—	21.88%
3	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
4	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
Total	34.38%	56.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.69	0.81	+1.88
SD	1.71	0.78	1.88
CV	0.64	0.96	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1545	80	51.00	+29.00	91.0%	37	42	48	51	54	58	60
Connah's Quay Nomads	1422	56	26.19	+29.81	3.0%	13	17	22	26	30	35	36
Bala Town	1414	59	37.74	+21.26	32.0%	21	28	33	38	42	47	53
Newtown	1286	51	31.29	+19.71	72.0%	14	20	27	31	36	42	48
Caernarfon Town	1201	43	28.24	+14.76	72.0%	15	17	25	27	32	38	39
Flint Town United	1186	42	30.09	+11.91	80.0%	17	21	25	30	34	38	43
Cardiff Metropolitan	1180	42	26.91	+15.09	49.0%	14	17	22	28	31	35	38
Penybont	1156	40	33.84	+6.16	69.0%	24	25	30	34	37	43	47
Haverfordwest County	1156	38	21.53	+16.47	54.0%	10	14	18	21	25	31	33
Aberystwyth Town	1136	40	25.40	+14.60	58.0%	12	17	23	25	29	34	38
Barry Town United	1099	31	27.13	+3.87	29.0%	13	18	23	28	31	36	43
Cefn Druids	844	9	10.02	-1.02	4.0%	1	3	6	10	13	18	21

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.73%

Slight Edge

41.15%23.44%35.42%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 19.93 Elo pts.

159 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.25 goals

Neutral

-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.1

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

94%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.66/gm

Runaway

00.331/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.44 * Some Luck: 4.44 to 6.66 * Lucky: 6.66 to 8.88 * Wild Swing: 8.88 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.85 points

Some Luck

05.5514

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

Pinpoint

01.684

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

91.00%

The New Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Connah's Quay Nomads

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 167.36

2.26

Strong Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

70%

Slight Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

98%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Frequent

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

22%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.45

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.88

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.74

Near-Lock

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

12%

Solid Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.05

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.085

Well Within Noise

00.1210.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	94.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	4.00%	45.00%	17.00%	12.00%	5.00%	9.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Newtown	1.00%	14.00%	19.00%	9.00%	15.00%	11.00%	11.00%	5.00%	9.00%	2.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Caernarfon Town	—	5.00%	7.00%	8.00%	15.00%	12.00%	12.00%	11.00%	17.00%	7.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Flint Town United	—	4.00%	15.00%	19.00%	16.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	13.00%	4.00%	3.00%	—
Penybont	1.00%	19.00%	21.00%	19.00%	11.00%	9.00%	9.00%	4.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	9.00%	9.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	19.00%	10.00%	14.00%	11.00%	1.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	3.00%	4.00%	9.00%	11.00%	13.00%	17.00%	8.00%	9.00%	16.00%	10.00%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	3.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	12.00%	20.00%	14.00%	19.00%	13.00%	1.00%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	4.00%	5.00%	2.00%	14.00%	13.00%	23.00%	34.00%	5.00%
Barry Town United	—	5.00%	4.00%	9.00%	6.00%	18.00%	15.00%	9.00%	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	1.00%
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	9.00%	90.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	100.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	51.21%	23.73%	13.06%	8.16%	3.84%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	21.08%	28.17%	22.18%	16.99%	11.58%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	—	8.10%	14.43%	21.85%	25.92%	29.70%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Flint Town United	—	8.85%	15.48%	21.28%	24.65%	29.74%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	—	10.76%	18.19%	21.63%	24.28%	25.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	—	—	—	—	—	—	63.36%	27.20%	8.27%	1.05%	0.12%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.82%	43.11%	23.70%	6.51%	0.86%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.97%	24.10%	45.90%	16.69%	3.34%	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.80%	4.72%	17.28%	53.83%	23.37%	—
Barry Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	0.87%	4.85%	21.92%	72.31%	—
Cefn Druids	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	97.00%	3.00%
Connah's Quay Nomads	97.00%	3.00%
Newtown	97.00%	3.00%
Flint Town United	95.00%	5.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	92.00%	8.00%
Barry Town United	87.00%	13.00%
Aberystwyth Town	85.00%	15.00%
Haverfordwest County	50.00%	50.00%
Cefn Druids	—	100%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Flint Town United	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	99.88%	0.12%
Cardiff Metropolitan	99.14%	0.86%
Aberystwyth Town	96.66%	3.34%
Haverfordwest County	76.63%	23.37%
Barry Town United	27.69%	72.31%
Cefn Druids	—	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2021-08-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	25.4	954	1439	4.97%	12.16%	82.87%	-2.92	-1.9	0
2021-08-13	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	25.4	1439	954	82.87%	12.16%	4.97%	+2.92	+1.9	3
2021-08-14	Barry Town United	W 2-1	46.3	1183	1193	39.04%	24.85%	36.11%	+0.06	+7.2	3
2021-08-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	46.3	1193	1183	36.11%	24.85%	39.04%	-0.06	-7.2	0
2021-08-14	Flint Town United	L 1-5	42.8	1218	1166	47.50%	24.38%	28.11%	+0.45	-28.3	0
2021-08-14	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-1	42.8	1166	1218	28.11%	24.38%	47.50%	-0.45	+28.3	3
2021-08-14	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	34.5	1181	1091	52.34%	23.77%	23.89%	+0.69	+10.3	3
2021-08-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	34.5	1091	1181	23.89%	23.77%	52.34%	-0.69	-10.3	0
2021-08-14	Penybont	D 2-2	58.3	1298	1250	47.03%	24.43%	28.54%	+0.43	-0.6	1
2021-08-14	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	58.3	1250	1298	28.54%	24.43%	47.03%	-0.43	+0.6	1
2021-08-15	The New Saints	L 1-4	34.1	1195	1459	13.33%	20.06%	66.61%	-1.53	-7.2	0
2021-08-15	@ Newtown	W 4-1	34.1	1459	1195	66.61%	20.06%	13.33%	+1.53	+7.2	3
2021-08-20	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	33.5	1440	1191	68.88%	19.18%	11.94%	+1.69	+2.8	6
2021-08-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	33.5	1191	1440	11.94%	19.18%	68.88%	-1.69	-2.8	3
2021-08-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	48.7	1081	1189	26.16%	24.14%	49.70%	-0.56	+1.2	1
2021-08-20	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	48.7	1189	1081	49.70%	24.14%	26.16%	+0.56	-1.1	1
2021-08-21	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.0	1186	1297	25.87%	24.10%	50.04%	-0.57	+1.2	1
2021-08-21	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	49.0	1297	1186	50.04%	24.10%	25.87%	+0.57	-1.2	2
2021-08-21	Caernarfon Town	W 5-3	41.2	1466	1191	71.00%	18.29%	10.71%	+1.85	+3.4	6
2021-08-21	@ The New Saints	L 3-5	41.2	1191	1466	10.71%	18.29%	71.00%	-1.85	-3.4	3
2021-08-21	Cefn Druids	W 4-0	26.7	1194	952	68.23%	19.44%	12.33%	+1.65	+10.2	6
2021-08-21	@ Flint Town United	L 0-4	26.7	952	1194	12.33%	19.44%	68.23%	-1.65	-10.2	0
2021-08-21	Newtown	D 1-1	52.9	1250	1187	48.91%	24.23%	26.86%	+0.52	-1.0	2
2021-08-21	@ Penybont	D 1-1	52.9	1187	1250	26.86%	24.23%	48.91%	-0.52	+0.9	1
2021-08-27	Newtown	L 0-2	39.8	1188	1188	40.37%	24.82%	34.81%	+0.12	-15.7	3
2021-08-27	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	39.8	1188	1188	34.81%	24.82%	40.37%	-0.12	+15.7	4
2021-08-28	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	40.4	1204	1188	42.71%	24.73%	32.55%	+0.23	+7.1	9
2021-08-28	@ Flint Town United	L 0-1	40.4	1188	1204	32.55%	24.73%	42.71%	-0.23	-7.1	3
2021-08-28	Barry Town United	L 1-4	33.3	941	1187	14.47%	20.69%	64.85%	-1.42	-7.8	0
2021-08-28	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-1	33.3	1187	941	64.85%	20.69%	14.47%	+1.42	+7.8	4
2021-08-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.3	1296	1188	54.46%	23.40%	22.14%	+0.80	-1.6	3
2021-08-28	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.3	1188	1296	22.14%	23.40%	54.46%	-0.80	+1.6	2
2021-08-28	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.0	1249	1443	18.11%	22.25%	59.63%	-1.09	+1.9	3
2021-08-28	@ Penybont	D 1-1	55.0	1443	1249	59.63%	22.25%	18.11%	+1.09	-1.9	7
2021-08-28	The New Saints	L 0-1	30.7	1082	1469	7.75%	15.60%	76.65%	-2.31	-1.7	1
2021-08-28	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	30.7	1469	1082	76.65%	15.60%	7.75%	+2.31	+1.7	9
2021-08-31	Bala Town	L 0-1	38.3	1181	1295	25.62%	24.06%	50.32%	-0.59	-5.8	3
2021-08-31	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	38.3	1295	1181	50.32%	24.06%	25.62%	+0.59	+5.8	6
2021-08-31	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	55.4	1441	1172	70.53%	18.50%	10.98%	+1.81	-2.8	8
2021-08-31	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.4	1172	1441	10.98%	18.50%	70.53%	-1.81	+2.8	4
2021-08-31	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	26.1	1204	934	70.65%	18.44%	10.91%	+1.82	+11.0	7
2021-08-31	@ Newtown	L 0-5	26.1	934	1204	10.91%	18.44%	70.65%	-1.82	-11.0	0
2021-08-31	Flint Town United	W 1-0	33.8	1471	1211	69.74%	18.83%	11.43%	+1.75	+2.6	12
2021-08-31	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	33.8	1211	1471	11.43%	18.83%	69.74%	-1.75	-2.6	9
2021-08-31	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	46.0	1195	1080	55.27%	23.25%	21.48%	+0.85	+4.5	7
2021-08-31	@ Barry Town United	L 2-3	46.0	1080	1195	21.48%	23.25%	55.27%	-0.85	-4.5	1
2021-08-31	Penybont	W 3-2	53.3	1190	1251	31.90%	24.70%	43.40%	-0.26	+7.9	5
2021-08-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	53.3	1251	1190	43.40%	24.70%	31.90%	+0.26	-7.9	3
2021-09-10	Cefn Druids	W 3-0	27.3	1175	923	69.11%	19.09%	11.80%	+1.71	+7.5	7
2021-09-10	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	27.3	923	1175	11.80%	19.09%	69.11%	-1.71	-7.5	0
2021-09-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	41.8	1175	1198	37.17%	24.86%	37.98%	-0.02	-7.8	3
2021-09-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	41.8	1198	1175	37.98%	24.86%	37.17%	+0.02	+7.8	8
2021-09-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	49.8	1199	1439	14.87%	20.89%	64.24%	-1.38	+12.3	10
2021-09-11	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	49.8	1439	1199	64.24%	20.89%	14.87%	+1.38	-12.3	8
2021-09-11	Haverfordwest County	W 6-2	33.3	1300	1076	66.64%	20.05%	13.31%	+1.54	+7.8	9
2021-09-11	@ Bala Town	L 2-6	33.3	1076	1300	13.31%	20.05%	66.64%	-1.54	-7.8	1
2021-09-11	Newtown	W 4-1	41.1	1209	1215	39.52%	24.84%	35.64%	+0.09	+17.5	12
2021-09-11	@ Flint Town United	L 1-4	41.1	1215	1209	35.64%	24.84%	39.52%	-0.09	-17.5	7
2021-09-11	The New Saints	D 1-1	55.7	1243	1474	15.45%	21.17%	63.38%	-1.32	+2.2	4
2021-09-11	@ Penybont	D 1-1	55.7	1474	1243	63.38%	21.17%	15.45%	+1.32	-2.2	13
2021-09-17	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	48.8	1198	1167	44.62%	24.62%	30.75%	+0.32	-8.5	7
2021-09-17	@ Newtown	W 2-1	48.8	1167	1198	30.75%	24.62%	44.62%	-0.32	+8.5	6
2021-09-18	Bala Town	L 0-1	49.1	1426	1308	55.63%	23.18%	21.19%	+0.87	-10.9	8
2021-09-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	49.1	1308	1426	21.19%	23.18%	55.63%	-0.87	+10.9	12
2021-09-18	Barry Town United	W 3-1	35.9	1472	1212	69.76%	18.82%	11.42%	+1.76	+4.3	16
2021-09-18	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	35.9	1212	1472	11.42%	18.82%	69.76%	-1.76	-4.3	10
2021-09-18	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	39.1	1183	1206	37.13%	24.86%	38.02%	-0.02	+15.0	10
2021-09-18	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	39.1	1206	1183	38.02%	24.86%	37.13%	+0.02	-15.0	8
2021-09-18	Flint Town United	W 2-0	43.8	1068	1226	21.13%	23.16%	55.71%	-0.87	+20.5	4
2021-09-18	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	43.8	1226	1068	55.71%	23.16%	21.13%	+0.87	-20.5	12
2021-09-18	Penybont	L 0-3	26.3	915	1245	9.99%	17.72%	72.29%	-1.95	-6.2	0
2021-09-18	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	26.3	1245	915	72.29%	17.72%	9.99%	+1.95	+6.2	7
2021-10-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	27.4	1476	1176	73.07%	17.36%	9.57%	+2.01	+5.9	19
2021-10-01	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	27.4	1176	1476	9.57%	17.36%	73.07%	-2.01	-5.9	6
2021-10-01	Bala Town	L 1-2	43.3	1206	1319	25.66%	24.07%	50.27%	-0.59	-5.5	12
2021-10-01	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	43.3	1319	1206	50.27%	24.07%	25.66%	+0.59	+5.5	15
2021-10-02	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	52.9	1252	1198	47.78%	24.36%	27.86%	+0.46	-0.9	8
2021-10-02	@ Penybont	D 1-1	52.9	1198	1252	27.86%	24.36%	47.78%	-0.46	+0.9	11
2021-10-02	Cefn Druids	W 4-2	37.6	1191	909	71.57%	18.04%	10.39%	+1.89	+3.5	11
2021-10-02	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-4	37.6	909	1191	10.39%	18.04%	71.57%	-1.89	-3.5	0
2021-10-02	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.0	1088	1415	10.13%	17.83%	72.04%	-1.93	+2.9	5
2021-10-02	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	55.0	1415	1088	72.04%	17.83%	10.13%	+1.93	-2.9	9
2021-10-02	Newtown	L 0-3	38.5	1207	1189	42.96%	24.72%	32.31%	+0.24	-24.0	10
2021-10-02	@ Barry Town United	W 3-0	38.5	1189	1207	32.31%	24.72%	42.96%	-0.24	+24.0	10
2021-10-09	Barry Town United	W 3-2	49.9	1200	1183	42.78%	24.73%	32.49%	+0.23	+6.3	15
2021-10-09	@ Flint Town United	L 2-3	49.9	1183	1200	32.49%	24.73%	42.78%	-0.23	-6.3	10
2021-10-09	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	41.6	1170	1198	36.33%	24.85%	38.82%	-0.05	-7.7	6
2021-10-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	41.6	1198	1170	38.82%	24.85%	36.33%	+0.05	+7.7	14
2021-10-09	Cefn Druids	D 1-1	56.0	1325	905	81.34%	13.05%	5.61%	+2.75	-3.5	16
2021-10-09	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	56.0	905	1325	5.61%	13.05%	81.34%	-2.75	+3.5	1
2021-10-09	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	43.4	1194	1091	53.87%	23.51%	22.62%	+0.77	-19.9	11
2021-10-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	43.4	1091	1194	22.62%	23.51%	53.87%	-0.77	+19.9	8
2021-10-09	Penybont	W 3-1	45.0	1213	1251	35.05%	24.83%	40.12%	-0.11	+13.5	13
2021-10-09	@ Newtown	L 1-3	45.0	1251	1213	40.12%	24.83%	35.05%	+0.11	-13.5	8
2021-10-09	The New Saints	L 0-1	45.9	1412	1482	30.87%	24.63%	44.49%	-0.31	-6.8	9
2021-10-09	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 1-0	45.9	1482	1412	44.49%	24.63%	30.87%	+0.31	+6.8	22
2021-10-12	Bala Town	W 2-1	43.4	1489	1321	61.03%	21.87%	17.09%	+1.18	+3.8	25
2021-10-12	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	43.4	1321	1489	17.09%	21.87%	61.03%	-1.18	-3.8	16
2021-10-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	42.9	1177	1174	40.83%	24.81%	34.37%	+0.14	-8.4	10
2021-10-12	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	42.9	1174	1177	34.37%	24.81%	40.83%	-0.14	+8.4	14
2021-10-12	Flint Town United	L 2-3	52.3	1206	1207	40.35%	24.82%	34.83%	+0.12	-7.4	14
2021-10-12	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	52.3	1207	1206	34.83%	24.82%	40.35%	-0.12	+7.5	18
2021-10-12	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	41.0	1237	1111	56.57%	22.98%	20.45%	+0.92	+4.5	11
2021-10-12	@ Penybont	L 1-2	41.0	1111	1237	20.45%	22.98%	56.57%	-0.92	-4.5	8
2021-10-12	Newtown	L 0-2	46.4	1406	1227	62.23%	21.53%	16.24%	+1.25	-22.6	9
2021-10-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	46.4	1227	1406	16.24%	21.53%	62.23%	-1.25	+22.6	16
2021-10-13	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	33.4	909	1162	14.00%	20.44%	65.56%	-1.46	-3.3	1
2021-10-13	@ Cefn Druids	W 1-0	33.4	1162	909	65.56%	20.44%	14.00%	+1.46	+3.3	9
2021-10-22	Penybont	L 0-3	34.6	1165	1242	29.98%	24.56%	45.45%	-0.35	-18.1	9
2021-10-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	34.6	1242	1165	45.45%	24.56%	29.98%	+0.35	+18.1	14
2021-10-22	The New Saints	D 1-1	56.0	1214	1492	12.54%	19.58%	67.88%	-1.62	+2.6	19
2021-10-22	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	56.0	1492	1214	67.88%	19.58%	12.54%	+1.62	-2.6	26
2021-10-23	Barry Town United	D 3-3	62.6	1317	1169	59.06%	22.40%	18.54%	+1.06	-1.1	17
2021-10-23	@ Bala Town	D 3-3	62.6	1169	1317	18.54%	22.40%	59.06%	-1.06	+1.1	11
2021-10-23	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	39.1	1249	1199	47.31%	24.40%	28.29%	+0.44	+6.3	19
2021-10-23	@ Newtown	L 0-1	39.1	1199	1249	28.29%	24.40%	47.31%	-0.44	-6.3	14
2021-10-23	Cefn Druids	W 2-1	38.5	1107	906	64.38%	20.84%	14.78%	+1.38	+3.3	11
2021-10-23	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	38.5	906	1107	14.78%	20.84%	64.38%	-1.38	-3.3	1
2021-10-23	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.0	1182	1383	17.60%	22.07%	60.34%	-1.13	+2.0	15
2021-10-23	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.0	1383	1182	60.34%	22.07%	17.60%	+1.13	-1.9	10
2021-10-29	Cefn Druids	W 4-0	21.8	1381	902	84.70%	11.06%	4.24%	+3.13	+3.0	13
2021-10-29	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	21.8	902	1381	4.24%	11.06%	84.70%	-3.13	-3.0	1
2021-10-29	Flint Town United	L 1-2	44.6	1147	1217	30.86%	24.63%	44.51%	-0.31	-6.4	9
2021-10-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	44.6	1217	1147	44.51%	24.63%	30.86%	+0.31	+6.4	22
2021-10-30	Bala Town	W 1-0	44.1	1260	1316	32.55%	24.73%	42.72%	-0.23	+8.7	17
2021-10-30	@ Penybont	L 0-1	44.1	1316	1260	42.72%	24.73%	32.55%	+0.23	-8.7	17
2021-10-30	Barry Town United	L 1-2	48.5	1192	1170	43.56%	24.69%	31.75%	+0.27	-8.3	14
2021-10-30	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	48.5	1170	1192	31.75%	24.69%	43.56%	-0.27	+8.3	14
2021-10-30	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-0	26.8	1490	1184	73.47%	17.17%	9.36%	+2.04	+9.3	29
2021-10-30	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	26.8	1184	1490	9.36%	17.17%	73.47%	-2.04	-9.3	15
2021-10-30	Newtown	W 1-0	46.5	1110	1255	22.34%	23.45%	54.21%	-0.79	+10.6	14
2021-10-30	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	46.5	1255	1110	54.21%	23.45%	22.34%	+0.79	-10.6	19
2021-11-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-4	35.3	1307	1384	29.94%	24.56%	45.50%	-0.36	-23.7	17
2021-11-05	@ Bala Town	W 4-0	35.3	1384	1307	45.50%	24.56%	29.94%	+0.36	+23.7	16
2021-11-05	Newtown	L 0-5	25.3	899	1245	9.35%	17.16%	73.49%	-2.04	-9.3	1
2021-11-05	@ Cefn Druids	W 5-0	25.3	1245	899	73.49%	17.16%	9.35%	+2.04	+9.3	22
2021-11-06	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.6	1178	1141	45.55%	24.56%	29.89%	+0.36	-0.7	15
2021-11-06	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.6	1141	1178	29.89%	24.56%	45.55%	-0.36	+0.7	10
2021-11-06	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	42.4	1175	1184	39.16%	24.84%	35.99%	+0.07	-8.2	15
2021-11-06	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	42.4	1184	1175	35.99%	24.84%	39.16%	-0.07	+8.1	17
2021-11-06	Haverfordwest County	W 6-0	25.3	1499	1120	78.77%	14.48%	6.75%	+2.50	+7.6	32
2021-11-06	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	25.3	1120	1499	6.75%	14.48%	78.77%	-2.50	-7.6	14
2021-11-06	Penybont	W 3-1	45.4	1223	1269	33.98%	24.80%	41.22%	-0.16	+13.8	25
2021-11-06	@ Flint Town United	L 1-3	45.4	1269	1223	41.22%	24.80%	33.98%	+0.16	-13.8	17
2021-11-09	Bala Town	D 3-3	62.0	1254	1284	36.18%	24.85%	38.97%	-0.06	+0.1	23
2021-11-09	@ Newtown	D 3-3	62.0	1284	1254	38.97%	24.85%	36.18%	+0.06	-0.1	18
2021-11-09	Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.6	1113	1177	31.48%	24.67%	43.85%	-0.28	+0.5	15
2021-11-09	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	52.6	1177	1113	43.85%	24.67%	31.48%	+0.28	-0.5	16
2021-11-09	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	42.5	1255	1167	52.03%	23.82%	24.15%	+0.68	+5.2	20
2021-11-09	@ Penybont	L 1-2	42.5	1167	1255	24.15%	23.82%	52.03%	-0.68	-5.2	15
2021-11-09	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	35.4	1192	1408	16.48%	21.62%	61.90%	-1.23	-3.9	17
2021-11-09	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	35.4	1408	1192	61.90%	21.62%	16.48%	+1.23	+3.9	19
2021-11-09	Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.8	890	1237	9.30%	17.11%	73.59%	-2.05	+3.0	2
2021-11-09	@ Cefn Druids	D 1-1	54.8	1237	890	73.59%	17.11%	9.30%	+2.05	-3.0	26
2021-11-09	The New Saints	W 1-0	51.8	1141	1507	8.57%	16.43%	74.99%	-2.17	+13.9	13
2021-11-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	51.8	1507	1141	74.99%	16.43%	8.57%	+2.17	-13.9	32
2021-11-19	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	43.0	1162	1155	41.32%	24.79%	33.89%	+0.17	-8.5	15
2021-11-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	43.0	1155	1162	33.89%	24.79%	41.32%	-0.17	+8.5	16
2021-11-19	Flint Town United	W 3-1	41.5	1284	1234	47.23%	24.41%	28.35%	+0.44	+10.3	21
2021-11-19	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	41.5	1234	1284	28.35%	24.41%	47.23%	-0.44	-10.3	26
2021-11-19	Newtown	W 2-0	32.3	1493	1254	67.88%	19.58%	12.54%	+1.62	+5.5	35
2021-11-19	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	32.3	1254	1493	12.54%	19.58%	67.88%	-1.62	-5.5	23
2021-11-20	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	44.3	1113	1188	30.17%	24.58%	45.25%	-0.34	-6.3	15
2021-11-20	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	44.3	1188	1113	45.25%	24.58%	30.17%	+0.34	+6.3	20
2021-11-20	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	31.5	1177	893	71.75%	17.96%	10.29%	+1.90	+2.3	19
2021-11-20	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	31.5	893	1177	10.29%	17.96%	71.75%	-1.90	-2.3	2
2021-11-20	Penybont	D 0-0	50.7	1412	1260	59.38%	22.32%	18.30%	+1.08	-2.1	20
2021-11-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.7	1260	1412	18.30%	22.32%	59.38%	-1.08	+2.1	21
2021-12-03	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	34.3	1164	1410	14.45%	20.68%	64.87%	-1.42	-3.4	16
2021-12-03	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	34.3	1410	1164	64.87%	20.68%	14.45%	+1.42	+3.4	23
2021-12-03	The New Saints	L 1-4	38.0	1294	1498	17.33%	21.97%	60.70%	-1.16	-9.4	21
2021-12-03	@ Bala Town	W 4-1	38.0	1498	1294	60.70%	21.97%	17.33%	+1.16	+9.4	38
2021-12-04	Barry Town United	W 2-1	43.2	1249	1179	49.76%	24.13%	26.11%	+0.56	+5.6	26
2021-12-04	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.2	1179	1249	26.11%	24.13%	49.76%	-0.56	-5.6	19
2021-12-04	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	35.2	891	1153	13.44%	20.12%	66.44%	-1.52	-5.1	2
2021-12-04	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	35.2	1153	891	66.44%	20.12%	13.44%	+1.52	+5.1	18
2021-12-04	Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	36.2	1223	1107	55.44%	23.22%	21.34%	+0.86	+11.4	29
2021-12-04	@ Flint Town United	L 1-4	36.2	1107	1223	21.34%	23.22%	55.44%	-0.86	-11.4	15
2021-12-04	Penybont	L 1-2	44.9	1195	1262	31.10%	24.65%	44.25%	-0.30	-6.4	20
2021-12-04	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	44.9	1262	1195	44.25%	24.65%	31.10%	+0.30	+6.4	24
2021-12-10	Newtown	L 2-4	45.0	1160	1254	27.88%	24.36%	47.76%	-0.46	-9.1	16
2021-12-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	45.0	1254	1160	47.76%	24.36%	27.88%	+0.46	+9.1	29
2021-12-11	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.3	1096	1285	18.51%	22.39%	59.10%	-1.06	+2.1	16
2021-12-11	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	49.3	1285	1096	59.10%	22.39%	18.51%	+1.06	-2.1	22
2021-12-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.9	1413	1158	69.30%	19.01%	11.69%	+1.72	-3.0	24
2021-12-11	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.9	1158	1413	11.69%	19.01%	69.30%	-1.72	+3.0	19
2021-12-11	Cefn Druids	W 7-1	26.2	1268	886	79.04%	14.33%	6.62%	+2.53	+6.1	27
2021-12-11	@ Penybont	L 1-7	26.2	886	1268	6.62%	14.33%	79.04%	-2.53	-6.1	2
2021-12-11	The New Saints	L 1-2	37.7	1174	1508	9.84%	17.58%	72.58%	-1.97	-2.1	19
2021-12-11	@ Barry Town United	W 2-1	37.7	1508	1174	72.58%	17.58%	9.84%	+1.97	+2.1	41
2021-12-17	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	61.6	1188	1151	45.48%	24.56%	29.95%	+0.36	-0.4	21
2021-12-17	@ Caernarfon Town	D 3-3	61.6	1151	1188	29.95%	24.56%	45.48%	-0.36	+0.4	17
2021-12-17	Bala Town	L 3-5	37.8	880	1283	7.24%	15.04%	77.72%	-2.40	-2.2	2
2021-12-17	@ Cefn Druids	W 5-3	37.8	1283	880	77.72%	15.04%	7.24%	+2.40	+2.2	25
2021-12-18	Flint Town United	W 2-0	37.2	1263	1235	44.36%	24.64%	31.00%	+0.30	+12.8	32
2021-12-18	@ Newtown	L 0-2	37.2	1235	1263	31.00%	24.64%	44.36%	-0.30	-12.8	29
2021-12-18	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	31.3	1410	1098	74.01%	16.91%	9.08%	+2.08	+2.0	27
2021-12-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	31.3	1098	1410	9.08%	16.91%	74.01%	-2.08	-2.0	16
2021-12-18	Penybont	W 3-2	45.6	1510	1275	67.58%	19.70%	12.73%	+1.60	+2.6	44
2021-12-18	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	45.6	1275	1510	12.73%	19.70%	67.58%	-1.60	-2.6	27
2021-12-21	Caernarfon Town	L 3-4	56.6	1222	1188	45.16%	24.59%	30.25%	+0.34	-8.0	29
2021-12-21	@ Flint Town United	W 4-3	56.6	1188	1222	30.25%	24.59%	45.16%	-0.34	+8.0	24
2022-01-21	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	30.6	1272	1152	55.88%	23.13%	21.00%	+0.88	+17.4	30
2022-01-21	@ Penybont	L 0-4	30.6	1152	1272	21.00%	23.13%	55.88%	-0.88	-17.4	17
2022-01-21	Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	33.8	877	1196	10.54%	18.16%	71.31%	-1.87	-3.9	2
2022-01-21	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-1	33.8	1196	877	71.31%	18.16%	10.54%	+1.87	+3.9	27
2022-01-21	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-1	46.3	1512	1412	53.55%	23.57%	22.88%	+0.75	+8.6	47
2022-01-21	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	46.3	1412	1512	22.88%	23.57%	53.55%	-0.75	-8.6	27
2022-01-22	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.0	1161	1285	24.59%	23.89%	51.52%	-0.65	+1.3	20
2022-01-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.0	1285	1161	51.52%	23.89%	24.59%	+0.65	-1.3	26
2022-01-22	Flint Town United	L 0-1	41.0	1172	1214	34.40%	24.81%	40.80%	-0.14	-7.4	19
2022-01-22	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	41.0	1214	1172	40.80%	24.81%	34.40%	+0.14	+7.4	32
2022-01-22	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.6	1276	1096	62.37%	21.48%	16.15%	+1.26	-2.1	33
2022-01-22	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.6	1096	1276	16.15%	21.48%	62.37%	-1.26	+2.1	17
2022-01-25	Barry Town United	W 2-0	38.1	1163	1164	40.21%	24.82%	34.96%	+0.12	+14.1	23
2022-01-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	38.1	1164	1163	34.96%	24.82%	40.21%	-0.12	-14.1	19
2022-01-25	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.3	1222	1403	19.09%	22.58%	58.33%	-1.02	+1.8	33
2022-01-25	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.3	1403	1222	58.33%	22.58%	19.09%	+1.02	-1.8	28
2022-01-28	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	26.3	1134	873	69.84%	18.79%	11.38%	+1.76	+11.5	20
2022-01-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-5	26.3	873	1134	11.38%	18.79%	69.84%	-1.76	-11.5	2
2022-01-28	Newtown	W 1-0	41.2	1283	1274	41.74%	24.78%	33.49%	+0.18	+7.2	29
2022-01-28	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	41.2	1274	1283	33.49%	24.78%	41.74%	-0.18	-7.2	33
2022-01-28	Penybont	D 2-2	58.5	1098	1289	18.31%	22.32%	59.37%	-1.08	+1.4	18
2022-01-28	@ Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	58.5	1289	1098	59.37%	22.32%	18.31%	+1.08	-1.4	31
2022-01-28	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.9	1200	1521	10.39%	18.04%	71.56%	-1.89	-8.5	27
2022-01-28	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	27.9	1521	1200	71.56%	18.04%	10.39%	+1.89	+8.5	50
2022-01-29	Barry Town United	L 2-3	59.6	1402	1150	69.04%	19.12%	11.85%	+1.70	-11.7	28
2022-01-29	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	W 3-2	59.6	1150	1402	11.85%	19.12%	69.04%	-1.70	+11.7	22
2022-01-29	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	57.8	1223	1177	46.77%	24.45%	28.77%	+0.42	-0.6	34
2022-01-29	@ Flint Town United	D 2-2	57.8	1177	1223	28.77%	24.45%	46.77%	-0.42	+0.6	24
2022-02-01	Cefn Druids	W 5-1	23.6	1529	862	92.23%	6.12%	1.65%	+4.31	+0.9	53
2022-02-01	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	23.6	862	1529	1.65%	6.12%	92.23%	-4.31	-0.9	2
2022-02-01	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	36.1	1146	1099	46.80%	24.45%	28.75%	+0.42	+12.1	23
2022-02-01	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	36.1	1099	1146	28.75%	24.45%	46.80%	-0.42	-12.1	18
2022-02-04	Barry Town United	W 4-0	30.5	1288	1162	56.57%	22.98%	20.45%	+0.92	+17.0	34
2022-02-04	@ Penybont	L 0-4	30.5	1162	1288	20.45%	22.98%	56.57%	-0.92	-17.0	22
2022-02-04	Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	32.3	1291	1191	53.47%	23.58%	22.95%	+0.75	+14.5	32
2022-02-04	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	32.3	1191	1291	22.95%	23.58%	53.47%	-0.75	-14.5	27
2022-02-11	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	48.5	1087	1158	30.68%	24.62%	44.70%	-0.32	+0.7	19
2022-02-11	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	48.5	1158	1087	44.70%	24.62%	30.68%	+0.32	-0.7	24
2022-02-11	Flint Town United	W 2-0	32.8	1390	1223	61.02%	21.88%	17.10%	+1.17	+7.6	31
2022-02-11	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	32.8	1223	1390	17.10%	21.88%	61.02%	-1.17	-7.6	34
2022-02-11	Penybont	D 0-0	49.2	1145	1305	20.98%	23.12%	55.90%	-0.88	+1.8	23
2022-02-11	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	49.2	1305	1145	55.90%	23.12%	20.98%	+0.88	-1.8	35
2022-02-11	The New Saints	L 1-4	25.6	861	1530	2.01%	6.95%	91.04%	-4.07	-0.8	2
2022-02-11	@ Cefn Druids	W 4-1	25.6	1530	861	91.04%	6.95%	2.01%	+4.07	+0.8	56
2022-02-12	Bala Town	D 3-3	62.1	1177	1305	24.05%	23.80%	52.15%	-0.68	+0.8	28
2022-02-12	@ Caernarfon Town	D 3-3	62.1	1305	1177	52.15%	23.80%	24.05%	+0.68	-0.8	33
2022-02-12	Newtown	D 1-1	52.9	1177	1267	28.40%	24.41%	47.19%	-0.44	+0.8	25
2022-02-12	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	52.9	1267	1177	47.19%	24.41%	28.40%	+0.44	-0.8	34
2022-02-19	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.0	1266	1178	52.05%	23.81%	24.14%	+0.68	-1.4	35
2022-02-19	@ Newtown	D 0-0	49.0	1178	1266	24.14%	23.81%	52.05%	-0.68	+1.4	26
2022-02-26	Aberystwyth Town	D 2-2	58.6	1304	1157	58.88%	22.45%	18.67%	+1.05	-1.4	34
2022-02-26	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	58.6	1157	1304	18.67%	22.45%	58.88%	-1.05	+1.4	25
2022-02-26	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	46.2	1146	1177	36.01%	24.85%	39.15%	-0.07	-7.2	23
2022-02-26	@ Barry Town United	W 2-1	46.2	1177	1146	39.15%	24.85%	36.01%	+0.07	+7.2	31
2022-02-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	35.7	1265	1398	23.61%	23.71%	52.68%	-0.71	-10.2	35
2022-02-26	@ Newtown	W 2-0	35.7	1398	1265	52.68%	23.71%	23.61%	+0.71	+10.2	34
2022-02-26	Flint Town United	D 1-1	53.3	1303	1215	52.08%	23.81%	24.11%	+0.68	-1.2	36
2022-02-26	@ Penybont	D 1-1	53.3	1215	1303	24.11%	23.81%	52.08%	-0.68	+1.2	35
2022-02-26	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	31.2	860	1088	15.65%	21.26%	63.09%	-1.30	-6.9	2
2022-02-26	@ Cefn Druids	W 2-0	31.2	1088	860	63.09%	21.26%	15.65%	+1.30	+6.9	22
2022-02-26	The New Saints	D 1-1	56.9	1180	1531	9.10%	16.94%	73.96%	-2.08	+3.0	27
2022-02-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	56.9	1531	1180	73.96%	16.94%	9.10%	+2.08	-3.0	57

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2022-03-04	Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	63.3	853	1159	11.15%	18.62%	70.23%	-1.79	+1.7	1
2022-03-04	@ Cefn Druids	D 3-3	63.3	1159	853	70.23%	18.62%	11.15%	+1.79	-1.7	1
2022-03-04	Bala Town	L 0-2	38.3	1254	1303	33.58%	24.78%	41.64%	-0.18	-13.7	0
2022-03-04	@ Newtown	W 2-0	38.3	1303	1254	41.64%	24.78%	33.58%	+0.18	+13.7	3
2022-03-04	The New Saints	L 1-2	39.1	1216	1528	10.84%	18.39%	70.77%	-1.83	-2.3	0
2022-03-04	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	39.1	1528	1216	70.77%	18.39%	10.84%	+1.83	+2.3	3
2022-03-05	Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	42.0	1302	1185	55.56%	23.19%	21.25%	+0.86	-29.8	0
2022-03-05	@ Penybont	W 3-0	42.0	1185	1302	21.25%	23.19%	55.56%	-0.86	+29.7	3
2022-03-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.3	1183	1408	15.81%	21.34%	62.85%	-1.29	+2.4	1
2022-03-05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.3	1408	1183	62.85%	21.34%	15.81%	+1.29	-2.4	1
2022-03-05	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	44.4	1139	1095	46.53%	24.48%	29.00%	+0.40	-9.3	0
2022-03-05	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	44.4	1095	1139	29.00%	24.48%	46.53%	-0.40	+9.3	3
2022-03-08	Bala Town	W 2-1	43.0	1530	1317	65.61%	20.42%	13.97%	+1.47	+3.1	6
2022-03-08	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	43.0	1317	1530	13.97%	20.42%	65.61%	-1.47	-3.1	3
2022-03-11	Flint Town United	W 3-2	47.0	1314	1214	53.47%	23.58%	22.95%	+0.75	+4.7	6
2022-03-11	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	47.0	1214	1314	22.95%	23.58%	53.47%	-0.75	-4.7	0
2022-03-11	Newtown	L 0-4	35.9	1214	1241	36.64%	24.85%	38.51%	-0.04	-27.7	3
2022-03-11	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	35.9	1241	1214	38.51%	24.85%	36.64%	+0.04	+27.7	3
2022-03-12	Barry Town United	W 2-0	29.4	1405	1130	71.06%	18.26%	10.67%	+1.85	+4.6	4
2022-03-12	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	29.4	1130	1405	10.67%	18.26%	71.06%	-1.85	-4.6	0
2022-03-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	38.6	1157	1185	36.41%	24.85%	38.74%	-0.05	-14.5	1
2022-03-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	38.6	1185	1157	38.74%	24.85%	36.41%	+0.05	+14.5	4
2022-03-12	Cefn Druids	W 6-1	29.6	1104	855	68.82%	19.21%	11.98%	+1.69	+10.1	6
2022-03-12	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-6	29.6	855	1104	11.98%	19.21%	68.82%	-1.69	-10.1	1
2022-03-12	Penybont	D 3-3	67.0	1534	1272	69.87%	18.77%	11.36%	+1.76	-1.7	7
2022-03-12	@ The New Saints	D 3-3	67.0	1272	1534	11.36%	18.77%	69.87%	-1.76	+1.7	1
2022-03-15	Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.8	1200	1125	50.36%	24.05%	25.59%	+0.59	-1.1	5
2022-03-15	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	52.8	1125	1200	25.59%	24.05%	50.36%	-0.59	+1.1	1
2022-03-15	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	20.7	1410	845	88.68%	8.53%	2.78%	+3.67	+2.3	7
2022-03-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-5	20.7	845	1410	2.78%	8.53%	88.68%	-3.67	-2.3	1
2022-03-15	Flint Town United	W 2-1	46.9	1187	1209	37.18%	24.86%	37.96%	-0.02	+7.5	6
2022-03-15	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	46.9	1209	1187	37.96%	24.86%	37.18%	+0.02	-7.5	0
2022-03-15	Haverfordwest County	L 0-6	38.6	1142	1114	44.33%	24.64%	31.03%	+0.30	-47.0	1
2022-03-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 6-0	38.6	1114	1142	31.03%	24.64%	44.33%	-0.30	+47.0	9
2022-03-22	Penybont	L 1-2	47.8	1269	1274	39.64%	24.84%	35.52%	+0.09	-7.8	3
2022-03-22	@ Newtown	W 2-1	47.8	1274	1269	35.52%	24.84%	39.64%	-0.09	+7.8	4
2022-03-25	Barry Town United	W 2-1	47.1	1095	1126	35.99%	24.84%	39.17%	-0.07	+7.7	4
2022-03-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	47.1	1126	1095	39.17%	24.84%	35.99%	+0.07	-7.7	1
2022-03-25	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	33.7	1318	1194	56.34%	23.03%	20.63%	+0.90	+9.0	9
2022-03-25	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	33.7	1194	1318	20.63%	23.03%	56.34%	-0.90	-9.0	6
2022-03-25	Newtown	L 0-1	53.2	1532	1261	70.70%	18.42%	10.88%	+1.83	-13.3	7
2022-03-25	@ The New Saints	W 1-0	53.2	1261	1532	10.88%	18.42%	70.70%	-1.83	+13.3	6
2022-03-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	47.4	843	1198	8.93%	16.77%	74.30%	-2.11	+26.0	4
2022-03-26	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-2	47.4	1198	843	74.30%	16.77%	8.93%	+2.11	-26.0	5
2022-03-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.5	1161	1412	14.13%	20.51%	65.37%	-1.45	+2.6	10
2022-03-26	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.5	1412	1161	65.37%	20.51%	14.13%	+1.45	-2.6	8
2022-03-26	Penybont	W 1-0	44.6	1202	1282	29.55%	24.53%	45.92%	-0.38	+9.2	3
2022-03-26	@ Flint Town United	L 0-1	44.6	1282	1202	45.92%	24.53%	29.55%	+0.38	-9.2	4
2022-04-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	31.5	1410	1103	73.57%	17.12%	9.31%	+2.05	+2.1	11
2022-04-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	31.5	1103	1410	9.31%	17.12%	73.57%	-2.05	-2.1	4
2022-04-01	The New Saints	L 0-3	28.2	1185	1519	9.86%	17.60%	72.54%	-1.97	-6.1	6
2022-04-01	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	28.2	1519	1185	72.54%	17.60%	9.86%	+1.97	+6.1	10
2022-04-02	Bala Town	L 0-5	35.5	1272	1327	32.73%	24.74%	42.52%	-0.22	-31.3	4
2022-04-02	@ Penybont	W 5-0	35.5	1327	1272	42.52%	24.74%	32.73%	+0.22	+31.3	12
2022-04-02	Cefn Druids	W 1-0	32.4	1119	869	68.91%	19.17%	11.92%	+1.69	+2.8	4
2022-04-02	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	32.4	869	1119	11.92%	19.17%	68.91%	-1.69	-2.8	4
2022-04-02	Flint Town United	W 2-1	43.5	1274	1211	48.93%	24.23%	26.84%	+0.52	+5.7	9
2022-04-02	@ Newtown	L 1-2	43.5	1211	1274	26.84%	24.23%	48.93%	-0.52	-5.7	3
2022-04-02	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	50.2	1172	1164	41.63%	24.78%	33.59%	+0.18	+6.5	8
2022-04-02	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	50.2	1164	1172	33.59%	24.78%	41.63%	-0.18	-6.5	10
2022-04-05	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	44.8	1157	1101	48.08%	24.33%	27.59%	+0.48	-9.6	10
2022-04-05	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	44.8	1101	1157	27.59%	24.33%	48.08%	-0.48	+9.6	7
2022-04-05	Caernarfon Town	L 0-4	38.0	1205	1179	44.08%	24.66%	31.27%	+0.29	-32.0	3
2022-04-05	@ Flint Town United	W 4-0	38.0	1179	1205	31.27%	24.66%	44.08%	-0.29	+32.0	9
2022-04-05	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	43.4	1122	1179	32.40%	24.73%	42.87%	-0.24	+8.8	7
2022-04-05	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	43.4	1179	1122	42.87%	24.73%	32.40%	+0.24	-8.7	8
2022-04-05	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	22.2	866	1412	3.72%	10.22%	86.07%	-3.30	-2.0	4
2022-04-05	@ Cefn Druids	W 3-0	22.2	1412	866	86.07%	10.22%	3.72%	+3.30	+2.0	14
2022-04-05	Newtown	L 0-2	38.5	1241	1280	34.94%	24.82%	40.24%	-0.12	-14.1	4
2022-04-05	@ Penybont	W 2-0	38.5	1280	1241	40.24%	24.82%	34.94%	+0.12	+14.1	12
2022-04-05	The New Saints	D 1-1	58.9	1359	1525	20.46%	22.99%	56.55%	-0.92	+1.6	13
2022-04-05	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	58.9	1525	1359	56.55%	22.99%	20.46%	+0.92	-1.6	11
2022-04-08	Bala Town	L 0-1	35.9	1173	1360	18.68%	22.45%	58.88%	-1.05	-4.4	3
2022-04-08	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	35.9	1360	1173	58.88%	22.45%	18.68%	+1.05	+4.4	16
2022-04-09	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.7	1170	1111	48.50%	24.28%	27.22%	+0.50	-0.9	9
2022-04-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	52.7	1111	1170	27.22%	24.28%	48.50%	-0.50	+0.9	8
2022-04-09	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	38.1	1294	1211	51.44%	23.90%	24.66%	+0.64	+5.6	15
2022-04-09	@ Newtown	L 0-1	38.1	1211	1294	24.66%	23.90%	51.44%	-0.64	-5.6	9
2022-04-09	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.7	1130	1414	12.27%	19.40%	68.33%	-1.65	+2.6	8
2022-04-09	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.7	1414	1130	68.33%	19.40%	12.27%	+1.65	-2.6	15
2022-04-09	Haverfordwest County	L 1-6	29.7	864	1148	12.24%	19.38%	68.38%	-1.66	-10.3	4
2022-04-09	@ Cefn Druids	W 6-1	29.7	1148	864	68.38%	19.38%	12.24%	+1.66	+10.3	13
2022-04-09	The New Saints	L 1-2	39.6	1227	1523	11.62%	18.96%	69.43%	-1.73	-2.5	4
2022-04-09	@ Penybont	W 2-1	39.6	1523	1227	69.43%	18.96%	11.62%	+1.73	+2.5	14
2022-04-15	Barry Town United	W 2-0	37.0	1158	1133	43.93%	24.67%	31.40%	+0.28	+13.0	16
2022-04-15	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	37.0	1133	1158	31.40%	24.67%	43.93%	-0.28	-13.0	8
2022-04-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	30.4	1411	1169	68.17%	19.46%	12.36%	+1.64	+5.4	18
2022-04-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	30.4	1169	1411	12.36%	19.46%	68.17%	-1.64	-5.4	9
2022-04-15	Cefn Druids	W 6-0	27.0	1111	853	69.59%	18.89%	11.52%	+1.74	+13.9	11
2022-04-15	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-6	27.0	853	1111	11.52%	18.89%	69.59%	-1.74	-13.9	4
2022-04-15	Flint Town United	W 7-0	27.1	1526	1169	77.26%	15.28%	7.46%	+2.36	+9.8	17
2022-04-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-7	27.1	1169	1526	7.46%	15.28%	77.26%	-2.36	-9.8	3
2022-04-15	Newtown	W 1-0	39.7	1365	1299	49.22%	24.20%	26.58%	+0.53	+6.0	19
2022-04-15	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	39.7	1299	1365	26.58%	24.20%	49.22%	-0.53	-6.0	15
2022-04-15	Penybont	W 1-0	42.0	1205	1225	37.68%	24.86%	37.46%	+0.00	+7.9	12
2022-04-15	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	42.0	1225	1205	37.46%	24.86%	37.68%	+0.00	-7.9	4
2022-04-18	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	42.4	1120	1125	39.64%	24.84%	35.52%	+0.09	-8.2	8
2022-04-18	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	42.4	1125	1120	35.52%	24.84%	39.64%	-0.09	+8.2	14
2022-04-18	Bala Town	L 0-2	34.2	1213	1371	21.23%	23.19%	55.58%	-0.86	-9.3	12
2022-04-18	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	34.2	1371	1213	55.58%	23.19%	21.23%	+0.86	+9.3	22
2022-04-18	Cefn Druids	W 5-0	24.8	1164	840	74.92%	16.47%	8.61%	+2.16	+8.4	12
2022-04-18	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-5	24.8	840	1164	8.61%	16.47%	74.92%	-2.16	-8.4	4
2022-04-18	Flint Town United	L 0-3	39.9	1217	1159	48.22%	24.31%	27.47%	+0.49	-26.4	4
2022-04-18	@ Penybont	W 3-0	39.9	1159	1217	27.47%	24.31%	48.22%	-0.49	+26.4	6
2022-04-18	Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	28.3	1417	1171	68.49%	19.34%	12.17%	+1.66	+7.7	21
2022-04-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	28.3	1171	1417	12.17%	19.34%	68.49%	-1.66	-7.7	16
2022-04-18	The New Saints	L 0-2	35.1	1293	1535	14.70%	20.81%	64.49%	-1.39	-6.5	15
2022-04-18	@ Newtown	W 2-0	35.1	1535	1293	64.49%	20.81%	14.70%	+1.39	+6.5	20
2022-04-23	Barry Town United	W 1-0	49.3	831	1112	12.42%	19.50%	68.07%	-1.63	+12.9	7
2022-04-23	@ Cefn Druids	L 0-1	49.3	1112	831	68.07%	19.50%	12.42%	+1.63	-12.9	8
2022-04-23	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	34.9	1542	1204	75.93%	15.97%	8.10%	+2.24	+2.9	23
2022-04-23	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	34.9	1204	1542	8.10%	15.97%	75.93%	-2.24	-2.9	12
2022-04-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	47.1	1163	1172	39.14%	24.85%	36.01%	+0.07	-7.7	16
2022-04-23	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	47.1	1172	1163	36.01%	24.85%	39.14%	-0.07	+7.7	15
2022-04-23	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.9	1134	1424	11.89%	19.15%	68.96%	-1.70	+2.7	15
2022-04-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.9	1424	1134	68.96%	19.15%	11.89%	+1.70	-2.7	22
2022-04-23	Newtown	D 1-1	53.0	1186	1287	27.00%	24.25%	48.75%	-0.51	+0.9	7
2022-04-23	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	53.0	1287	1186	48.75%	24.25%	27.00%	+0.51	-0.9	16
2022-04-23	Penybont	W 11-0	31.5	1380	1190	63.28%	21.20%	15.52%	+1.31	+34.0	25
2022-04-23	@ Bala Town	L 0-11	31.5	1190	1380	15.52%	21.20%	63.28%	-1.31	-34.0	4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2021-11-09	8.57%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1141	1	The New Saints	1507	0
2	2022-03-26	8.93%	@ Cefn Druids	843	2	Cardiff Metropolitan	1198	0
3	2022-03-25	10.88%	Newtown	1261	1	@ The New Saints	1532	0
4	2022-01-29	11.85%	Barry Town United	1150	3	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1402	2
5	2022-04-23	12.42%	@ Cefn Druids	831	1	Barry Town United	1112	0
6	2021-09-11	14.87%	@ Barry Town United	1199	1	Connah's Quay Nomads	1439	0
7	2021-10-12	16.24%	Newtown	1227	2	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1406	0
8	2021-09-18	21.13%	@ Haverfordwest County	1068	2	Flint Town United	1226	0
9	2021-09-18	21.19%	Bala Town	1308	1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1426	0
10	2022-03-05	21.25%	Caernarfon Town	1185	3	@ Penybont	1302	0
11	2021-10-30	22.34%	@ Haverfordwest County	1110	1	Newtown	1255	0
12	2021-10-09	22.62%	Haverfordwest County	1091	2	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1194	0
13	2022-04-18	27.47%	Flint Town United	1159	3	@ Penybont	1217	0
14	2022-04-05	27.59%	Aberystwyth Town	1101	1	@ Haverfordwest County	1157	0
15	2021-08-14	28.11%	Flint Town United	1166	5	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1218	1
16	2022-03-05	29.00%	Haverfordwest County	1095	1	@ Barry Town United	1139	0
17	2022-03-26	29.55%	@ Flint Town United	1202	1	Penybont	1282	0
18	2021-12-21	30.25%	Caernarfon Town	1188	4	@ Flint Town United	1222	3
19	2021-09-17	30.75%	Aberystwyth Town	1167	2	@ Newtown	1198	1
20	2022-03-15	31.03%	Haverfordwest County	1114	6	@ Aberystwyth Town	1142	0
21	2022-04-05	31.27%	Caernarfon Town	1179	4	@ Flint Town United	1205	0
22	2021-10-30	31.75%	Barry Town United	1170	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1192	1
23	2021-08-31	31.90%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1190	3	Penybont	1251	2
24	2021-10-02	32.31%	Newtown	1189	3	@ Barry Town United	1207	0
25	2022-04-05	32.40%	@ Barry Town United	1122	1	Cardiff Metropolitan	1179	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-03-15	47.03	Haverfordwest County	6	1114	31.03%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1142	44.33%	24.64%
2	2022-04-23	33.99	@ Bala Town	11	1380	63.28%	Penybont	0	1190	15.52%	21.20%
3	2022-04-05	31.98	Caernarfon Town	4	1179	31.27%	@ Flint Town United	0	1205	44.08%	24.66%
4	2022-04-02	31.32	Bala Town	5	1327	42.52%	@ Penybont	0	1272	32.73%	24.74%
5	2022-03-05	29.75	Caernarfon Town	3	1185	21.25%	@ Penybont	0	1302	55.56%	23.19%
6	2021-08-14	28.34	Flint Town United	5	1166	28.11%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1218	47.50%	24.38%
7	2022-03-11	27.71	Newtown	4	1241	38.51%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1214	36.64%	24.85%
8	2022-04-18	26.36	Flint Town United	3	1159	27.47%	@ Penybont	0	1217	48.22%	24.31%
9	2022-03-26	26.01	@ Cefn Druids	2	843	8.93%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1198	74.30%	16.77%
10	2021-10-02	23.98	Newtown	3	1189	32.31%	@ Barry Town United	0	1207	42.96%	24.72%
11	2021-11-05	23.67	Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1384	45.50%	@ Bala Town	0	1307	29.94%	24.56%
12	2021-10-12	22.59	Newtown	2	1227	16.24%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1406	62.23%	21.53%
13	2021-09-18	20.53	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1068	21.13%	Flint Town United	0	1226	55.71%	23.16%
14	2021-10-09	19.94	Haverfordwest County	2	1091	22.62%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1194	53.87%	23.51%
15	2021-10-22	18.13	Penybont	3	1242	45.45%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1165	29.98%	24.56%
16	2021-09-11	17.52	@ Flint Town United	4	1209	39.52%	Newtown	1	1215	35.64%	24.84%
17	2022-01-21	17.43	@ Penybont	4	1272	55.88%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1152	21.00%	23.13%
18	2022-02-04	17.02	@ Penybont	4	1288	56.57%	Barry Town United	0	1162	20.45%	22.98%
19	2021-08-27	15.73	Newtown	2	1188	34.81%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1188	40.37%	24.82%
20	2021-09-18	15.02	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1183	37.13%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1206	38.02%	24.86%
21	2022-03-12	14.54	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1185	38.74%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1157	36.41%	24.85%
22	2022-02-04	14.46	@ Bala Town	3	1291	53.47%	Caernarfon Town	0	1191	22.95%	23.58%
23	2022-01-25	14.10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1163	40.21%	Barry Town United	0	1164	34.96%	24.82%
24	2022-04-05	14.08	Newtown	2	1280	40.24%	@ Penybont	0	1241	34.94%	24.82%
25	2022-04-15	13.90	@ Aberystwyth Town	6	1111	69.59%	Cefn Druids	0	853	11.52%	18.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-03-12	67.0	@ The New Saints	3	1534	69.87%	Penybont	3	1272	11.36%	18.77%
2	2022-03-04	63.3	@ Cefn Druids	3	853	11.15%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1159	70.23%	18.62%
3	2021-10-23	62.6	@ Bala Town	3	1317	59.06%	Barry Town United	3	1169	18.54%	22.40%
4	2022-02-12	62.1	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1177	24.05%	Bala Town	3	1305	52.15%	23.80%
5	2021-11-09	62.0	@ Newtown	3	1254	36.18%	Bala Town	3	1284	38.97%	24.85%
6	2021-12-17	61.6	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1188	45.48%	Aberystwyth Town	3	1151	29.95%	24.56%
7	2022-01-29	59.6	Barry Town United	3	1150	11.85%	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1402	69.04%	19.12%
8	2022-04-05	58.9	@ Bala Town	1	1359	20.46%	The New Saints	1	1525	56.55%	22.99%
9	2022-02-26	58.6	@ Bala Town	2	1304	58.88%	Aberystwyth Town	2	1157	18.67%	22.45%
10	2022-01-28	58.5	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1098	18.31%	Penybont	2	1289	59.37%	22.32%
11	2021-08-14	58.3	@ Bala Town	2	1298	47.03%	Penybont	2	1250	28.54%	24.43%
12	2022-01-29	57.8	@ Flint Town United	2	1223	46.77%	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1177	28.77%	24.45%
13	2022-02-26	56.9	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1180	9.10%	The New Saints	1	1531	73.96%	16.94%
14	2021-12-21	56.6	Caernarfon Town	4	1188	30.25%	@ Flint Town United	3	1222	45.16%	24.59%
15	2021-10-09	56.0	@ Bala Town	1	1325	81.34%	Cefn Druids	1	905	5.61%	13.05%
16	2021-10-22	56.0	@ Flint Town United	1	1214	12.54%	The New Saints	1	1492	67.88%	19.58%
17	2021-09-11	55.7	@ Penybont	1	1243	15.45%	The New Saints	1	1474	63.38%	21.17%
18	2021-08-31	55.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1441	70.53%	Caernarfon Town	1	1172	10.98%	18.50%
19	2021-08-28	55.0	@ Penybont	1	1249	18.11%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1443	59.63%	22.25%
20	2021-10-02	55.0	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1088	10.13%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1415	72.04%	17.83%
21	2022-04-23	54.9	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1134	11.89%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1424	68.96%	19.15%
22	2021-11-09	54.8	@ Cefn Druids	1	890	9.30%	Flint Town United	1	1237	73.59%	17.11%
23	2022-04-09	54.7	@ Barry Town United	1	1130	12.27%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1414	68.33%	19.40%
24	2022-01-25	54.3	@ Flint Town United	1	1222	19.09%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1403	58.33%	22.58%
25	2021-10-23	54.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1182	17.60%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1383	60.34%	22.07%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-03-15	20.7	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1410	88.68%	Cefn Druids	0	845	2.78%	8.53%
2	2021-10-29	21.8	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	4	1381	84.70%	Cefn Druids	0	902	4.24%	11.06%
3	2022-04-05	22.2	Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1412	86.07%	@ Cefn Druids	0	866	3.72%	10.22%
4	2022-02-01	23.6	@ The New Saints	5	1529	92.23%	Cefn Druids	1	862	1.65%	6.12%
5	2022-04-18	24.8	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1164	74.92%	Cefn Druids	0	840	8.61%	16.47%
6	2021-11-05	25.3	Newtown	5	1245	73.49%	@ Cefn Druids	0	899	9.35%	17.16%
7	2021-11-06	25.3	@ The New Saints	6	1499	78.77%	Haverfordwest County	0	1120	6.75%	14.48%
8	2021-08-13	25.4	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1439	82.87%	@ Cefn Druids	0	954	4.97%	12.16%
9	2022-02-11	25.6	The New Saints	4	1530	91.04%	@ Cefn Druids	1	861	2.01%	6.95%
10	2021-08-31	26.1	@ Newtown	5	1204	70.65%	Cefn Druids	0	934	10.91%	18.44%
11	2021-12-11	26.2	@ Penybont	7	1268	79.04%	Cefn Druids	1	886	6.62%	14.33%
12	2021-09-18	26.3	Penybont	3	1245	72.29%	@ Cefn Druids	0	915	9.99%	17.72%
13	2022-01-28	26.3	@ Aberystwyth Town	5	1134	69.84%	Cefn Druids	0	873	11.38%	18.79%
14	2021-08-21	26.7	@ Flint Town United	4	1194	68.23%	Cefn Druids	0	952	12.33%	19.44%
15	2021-10-30	26.8	@ The New Saints	5	1490	73.47%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1184	9.36%	17.17%
16	2022-04-15	27.0	@ Aberystwyth Town	6	1111	69.59%	Cefn Druids	0	853	11.52%	18.89%
17	2022-04-15	27.1	@ The New Saints	7	1526	77.26%	Flint Town United	0	1169	7.46%	15.28%
18	2021-09-10	27.3	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1175	69.11%	Cefn Druids	0	923	11.80%	19.09%
19	2021-10-01	27.4	@ The New Saints	3	1476	73.07%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1176	9.57%	17.36%
20	2022-01-28	27.9	The New Saints	4	1521	71.56%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1200	10.39%	18.04%
21	2022-04-01	28.2	The New Saints	3	1519	72.54%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1185	9.86%	17.60%
22	2022-04-18	28.3	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1417	68.49%	Haverfordwest County	0	1171	12.17%	19.34%
23	2022-03-12	29.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1405	71.06%	Barry Town United	0	1130	10.67%	18.26%
24	2022-03-12	29.6	@ Haverfordwest County	6	1104	68.82%	Cefn Druids	1	855	11.98%	19.21%
25	2022-04-09	29.7	Haverfordwest County	6	1148	68.38%	@ Cefn Druids	1	864	12.24%	19.38%