2022-23 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

83 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Penybont

4.35 points above expected

58 points · 53.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bala Town

4.83 points below expected

44 points · 48.83 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	19	3	0	60	83	8	+75	51.27	+8.73
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	22	13	5	4	44	33	14	+19	43.24	+0.76
3	Penybont	22	12	5	5	41	37	19	+18	26.53	+14.47
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	13	2	7	41	29	29	0	31.00	+10.00
5	Bala Town	22	12	4	6	40	42	21	+21	42.54	-2.54
6	Newtown	22	10	3	9	33	41	39	+2	32.03	+0.97
7	Haverfordwest County	22	8	3	11	27	29	35	-6	26.51	+0.49
8	Caernarfon Town	22	8	1	13	25	33	41	-8	29.59	-4.59
9	Flint Town United	22	6	6	10	24	24	37	-13	28.72	-4.72
10	Aberystwyth Town	22	7	1	14	22	23	58	-35	19.97	+2.03
11	Pontypridd United	22	6	2	14	20	22	42	-20	23.04	-3.04
12	Airbus UK	22	0	1	21	1	13	66	-53	5.89	-4.89

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	26	5	1	83	112	17	+95	83.33	-0.33
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	32	17	10	5	61	45	23	+22	59.51	+1.49
3	Penybont	32	16	10	6	58	51	32	+19	53.65	+4.35
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	16	4	12	52	41	49	-8	49.70	+2.30
5	Bala Town	32	12	8	12	44	51	37	+14	48.83	-4.83
6	Newtown	32	12	5	15	41	49	56	-7	42.45	-1.45

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Haverfordwest County	32	14	5	13	47	49	44	+5	44.97	+2.03
2	Pontypridd United	32	12	5	15	41	41	52	-11	38.95	+2.05
3	Caernarfon Town	32	12	3	17	39	51	54	-3	40.45	-1.45
4	Aberystwyth Town	32	11	5	16	38	41	73	-32	34.89	+3.11
5	Flint Town United	32	9	8	15	35	41	53	-12	37.07	-2.07
6	Airbus UK	32	0	2	30	2	18	100	-82	1.08	+0.92

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Penybont	58	53.65	+4.35
2	Aberystwyth Town	38	34.89	+3.11
3	Cardiff Metropolitan	52	49.70	+2.30
4	Pontypridd United	41	38.95	+2.05
5	Haverfordwest County	47	44.97	+2.03

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bala Town	44	48.83	-4.83
2	Flint Town United	35	37.07	-2.07
3	Newtown	41	42.45	-1.45
4	Caernarfon Town	39	40.45	-1.45
5	The New Saints	83	83.33	-0.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	12	Aug 20 – Nov 5	1 in 76
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	7	Sep 24 – Nov 6	1 in 36
3	Newtown	5	Nov 5 – Dec 16	1 in 32
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	Dec 16 – Dec 26	1 in 22
5	Haverfordwest County	3	Nov 5 – Dec 2	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Airbus UK	22	Sep 27 – Mar 31	1 in 1,055
2	Caernarfon Town	6	Dec 2 – Jan 7	1 in 55
3	Flint Town United	4	Oct 28 – Dec 2	1 in 51
4	Bala Town	4	Mar 31 – Apr 22	1 in 40
5	Pontypridd United	5	Nov 6 – Dec 23	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Penybont	12	Dec 30 – Mar 31	1 in 271
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	10	Nov 19 – Feb 11	1 in 258
3	Aberystwyth Town	6	Mar 17 – Apr 22	1 in 58
4	Connah's Quay Nomads	15	Sep 24 – Jan 10	1 in 43
5	Pontypridd United	7	Feb 11 – Apr 1	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	12	Jan 10 – Apr 22	1 in 301
2	Connah's Quay Nomads	6	Dec 31 – Feb 18	1 in 170
3	Airbus UK	32	Aug 12 – Apr 22	1 in 62
4	Caernarfon Town	8	Nov 5 – Jan 7	1 in 19
5	Flint Town United	6	Sep 3 – Oct 14	1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1679	83	+74	15	11.6	+3.4
Connah's Quay Nomads	1438	61	+32	10	8.2	+1.8
Penybont	1367	58	+6	8	7.1	+0.9
Cardiff Metropolitan	1244	52	-10	6	4.9	+1.1
Haverfordwest County	1194	47	+57	11	9.7	+1.3
Bala Town	1265	44	-64	1	6.2	-5.2
Pontypridd United	1113	41	+22	10	8.0	+2.0
Newtown	1201	41	-38	3	4.2	-1.2
Caernarfon Town	1087	39	-7	7	7.8	-0.8
Aberystwyth Town	1062	38	+35	9	6.8	+2.2
Flint Town United	1054	35	-78	3	8.2	-5.2
Airbus UK	683	2	-29	1	1.9	-0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	AU	BT	CT	CM	CQN	FTU	HC	NEW	PEN	PU	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	3-1-0 7.92	0-0-2 1.27	3-0-1 4.03	0-0-2 2.28	1-0-1 0.99	2-1-1 3.99	1-1-2 4.12	0-0-2 1.43	0-0-2 1.42	1-2-1 4.93	0-0-2 0.78
Airbus UK	0-1-3 3.35	—	0-0-2 0.68	0-0-4 2.00	0-0-2 0.71	0-0-2 0.69	0-0-4 2.04	0-0-4 1.96	0-1-1 1.24	0-0-2 0.95	0-0-4 2.75	0-0-2 0.29
Bala Town	2-0-0 4.36	2-0-0 5.00	—	2-0-0 4.06	1-1-2 7.44	0-2-2 4.89	1-1-0 3.83	1-1-0 3.88	2-0-2 7.36	0-3-1 6.68	1-0-1 4.68	0-0-4 2.49
Caernarfon Town	1-0-3 7.21	4-0-0 9.31	0-0-2 1.57	—	2-0-0 2.59	0-1-1 1.96	2-1-1 5.98	2-1-1 5.69	0-0-2 3.16	0-0-2 2.53	1-0-3 6.60	0-0-2 0.66
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-0-0 3.34	2-0-0 4.97	2-1-1 3.80	0-0-2 3.02	—	1-0-3 3.12	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.94	3-1-0 5.05	1-1-2 4.70	2-0-0 3.43	1-0-3 2.03
Connah's Quay Nomads	1-0-1 4.66	2-0-0 4.98	2-2-0 6.34	1-1-0 3.67	3-0-1 8.13	—	1-1-0 4.73	1-0-1 4.45	2-2-0 8.03	2-2-0 7.00	2-0-0 4.40	0-2-2 3.20
Flint Town United	1-1-2 7.25	4-0-0 9.27	0-1-1 1.80	1-1-2 5.25	0-1-1 2.50	0-1-1 0.92	—	0-1-3 6.25	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 2.95	2-1-1 5.82	0-0-2 0.73
Haverfordwest County	2-1-1 7.11	4-0-0 9.35	0-1-1 1.74	1-1-2 5.55	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 1.19	3-1-0 4.98	—	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 2.19	1-1-2 6.84	0-0-2 0.57
Newtown	2-0-0 4.21	1-1-0 4.40	2-0-2 3.88	2-0-0 2.45	0-1-3 6.18	0-2-2 3.22	1-0-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.07	—	0-0-4 4.74	2-0-0 3.50	0-1-3 2.16
Penybont	2-0-0 4.21	2-0-0 4.71	1-3-0 4.55	2-0-0 3.09	2-1-1 6.54	0-2-2 4.24	1-1-0 2.66	1-0-1 3.43	4-0-0 6.50	—	1-1-0 4.11	0-2-2 2.27
Pontypridd United	1-2-1 6.30	4-0-0 8.52	1-0-1 0.97	3-0-1 4.63	0-0-2 2.18	0-0-2 1.24	1-1-2 5.41	2-1-1 4.39	0-0-2 2.13	0-1-1 1.51	—	0-0-2 0.80
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.90	2-0-0 5.48	4-0-0 8.79	2-0-0 5.01	3-0-1 9.30	2-2-0 8.05	2-0-0 4.94	2-0-0 5.13	3-1-0 9.15	2-2-0 9.01	2-0-0 4.88	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+7.3
Allowed	0.86	-8.0
Differential	0.90	+4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.51%	6.77%	3.91%	1.56%	2.34%	27.34%
1	6.51%	8.85%	9.11%	3.12%	2.08%	1.82%	31.51%
2	6.77%	9.11%	1.56%	2.86%	0.26%	0.52%	21.09%
3	3.91%	3.12%	2.86%	1.04%	—	—	10.94%
4	1.56%	2.08%	0.26%	—	0.52%	—	4.43%
5+	2.34%	1.82%	0.52%	—	—	—	4.69%
Total	27.34%	31.51%	21.09%	10.94%	4.43%	4.69%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	1.54	+0.00
SD	1.57	1.57	2.47
CV	1.02	1.02	—
Max	11	11	+11
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	25.00%
1	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	43.75%
2	—	21.88%	—	—	—	—	21.88%
3	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	6.25%	40.62%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.28	-1.00
SD	1.35	2.11	2.86
CV	1.05	0.93	—
Max	7	11	+6
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	12.50%	9.38%	53.12%
1	—	3.12%	21.88%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	43.75%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.56	3.12	-2.56
SD	0.80	1.77	1.98
CV	1.42	0.57	—
Max	4	8	+0
Min	0	1	-8

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	12.50%	15.62%	—	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
3	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	34.38%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.16	+0.44
SD	1.58	1.17	2.27
CV	0.99	1.01	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
1	—	—	12.50%	3.12%	—	6.25%	21.88%
2	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
3	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	25.00%	28.12%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.69	-0.09
SD	1.29	1.35	2.16
CV	0.81	0.80	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	31.25%
1	12.50%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	28.12%
2	9.38%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.53	-0.25
SD	1.14	1.92	2.50
CV	0.89	1.25	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
1	15.62%	12.50%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	40.62%
2	18.75%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	56.25%	25.00%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	0.72	+0.69
SD	1.10	1.02	1.51
CV	0.78	1.42	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	—	—	—	28.12%
1	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	37.50%
2	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	21.88%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	9.38%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.66	-0.38
SD	1.22	1.73	2.15
CV	0.96	1.05	—
Max	5	8	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	12.50%
1	12.50%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	43.75%
2	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	34.38%	21.88%	15.62%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.38	+0.16
SD	1.05	1.13	1.72
CV	0.68	0.82	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	37.50%
1	—	3.12%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	—	—	9.38%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	12.50%	34.38%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.75	-0.22
SD	1.63	1.22	2.06
CV	1.06	0.70	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	21.88%
1	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	25.00%
3	9.38%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	21.88%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	37.50%	37.50%	18.75%	3.12%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.00	+0.59
SD	1.24	1.11	1.56
CV	0.78	1.11	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	3.12%	37.50%
1	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
2	—	12.50%	—	—	3.12%	—	15.62%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	37.50%	21.88%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.62	-0.34
SD	1.30	1.34	2.09
CV	1.02	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	—	—	—	—	—	9.38%
1	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
2	12.50%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
3	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
Total	59.38%	31.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.50	0.53	+2.97
SD	2.74	0.76	2.80
CV	0.78	1.43	—
Max	11	3	+11
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1679	83	51.27	+31.73	98.0%	36	42	48	51	55	59	64
Connah's Quay Nomads	1438	61	43.24	+17.76	54.0%	28	31	39	44	47	51	57
Penybont	1367	58	26.53	+31.47	97.0%	14	16	22	27	31	35	37
Bala Town	1265	44	42.54	+1.46	33.0%	27	32	40	42	46	51	59
Cardiff Metropolitan	1244	52	31.00	+21.00	94.0%	18	20	27	30	34	42	48
Newtown	1201	41	32.03	+8.97	56.0%	14	22	27	32	36	43	48
Haverfordwest County	1194	47	26.51	+20.49	54.0%	10	17	22	27	30	35	44
Pontypridd United	1113	41	23.04	+17.96	32.0%	11	12	19	23	27	32	34
Caernarfon Town	1087	39	29.59	+9.41	29.0%	17	20	25	30	33	39	45
Aberystwyth Town	1062	38	19.97	+18.03	69.0%	7	12	16	20	24	29	32
Flint Town United	1054	35	28.72	+6.28	23.0%	16	20	25	29	32	38	43
Airbus UK	683	2	5.89	-3.89	0.0%	-2	-1	2	6	9	12	17

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+19.27%

Strong Edge

50.52%18.23%31.25%

Elo Value

Home Edge

147 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

067.80400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.26 goals

Neutral

-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.6

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

79%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.69/gm

Runaway

00.211/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.49 * Some Luck: 4.49 to 6.74 * Lucky: 6.74 to 8.99 * Wild Swing: 8.99 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.06 * Close: 1.06 to 1.59 * Off: 1.59 to 2.12 * Way Off: 2.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.98 points

Some Luck

05.6214

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

Off

01.323

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

The New Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

0.00%

Airbus UK

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 217.07

2.46

Wide Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

81%

Wide Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Some Drama

0%46%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Very Frequent

0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.33

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.52

Some Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

21%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.42

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.20

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.106

Well Within Noise

00.1120.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	79.00%	19.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	12.00%	38.00%	37.00%	7.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	—	—	1.00%	14.00%	10.00%	13.00%	12.00%	10.00%	12.00%	13.00%	15.00%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	18.00%	17.00%	22.00%	11.00%	10.00%	8.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—
Bala Town	8.00%	38.00%	36.00%	12.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	3.00%	11.00%	24.00%	15.00%	8.00%	11.00%	13.00%	11.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	3.00%	4.00%	10.00%	16.00%	20.00%	12.00%	14.00%	13.00%	8.00%	—
Pontypridd United	—	—	—	—	4.00%	7.00%	14.00%	14.00%	11.00%	29.00%	21.00%	—
Caernarfon Town	—	—	3.00%	13.00%	22.00%	15.00%	10.00%	13.00%	15.00%	6.00%	3.00%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	14.00%	12.00%	24.00%	43.00%	2.00%
Flint Town United	—	—	3.00%	8.00%	17.00%	13.00%	16.00%	14.00%	17.00%	9.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Airbus UK	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	97.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	99.86%	0.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	0.13%	68.77%	20.53%	7.74%	2.48%	0.35%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	0.01%	19.28%	39.73%	23.58%	13.66%	3.74%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	6.53%	18.80%	31.81%	31.42%	11.44%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	4.86%	17.59%	28.59%	33.04%	15.92%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	0.42%	3.35%	8.28%	19.40%	68.55%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.03%	22.96%	12.42%	6.82%	2.77%	—
Pontypridd United	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.14%	22.76%	24.16%	22.33%	16.61%	—
Caernarfon Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.50%	27.84%	23.56%	18.03%	11.07%	—
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.90%	10.37%	16.89%	25.95%	42.89%	—
Flint Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.43%	16.07%	22.97%	26.87%	26.66%	—
Airbus UK	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	99.00%	1.00%
Penybont	98.00%	2.00%
Caernarfon Town	96.00%	4.00%
Flint Town United	96.00%	4.00%
Haverfordwest County	92.00%	8.00%
Pontypridd United	76.00%	24.00%
Aberystwyth Town	43.00%	57.00%
Airbus UK	—	100%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Connah's Quay Nomads	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Haverfordwest County	97.23%	2.77%
Caernarfon Town	88.93%	11.07%
Pontypridd United	83.39%	16.61%
Flint Town United	73.34%	26.66%
Aberystwyth Town	57.11%	42.89%
Airbus UK	—	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2022-08-12	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	45.4	1037	1133	36.31%	19.32%	44.37%	-0.19	-15.1	0
2022-08-12	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	45.4	1133	1037	44.37%	19.32%	36.31%	+0.19	+15.1	3
2022-08-13	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	40.4	1147	1175	45.95%	19.31%	34.74%	+0.27	+15.5	3
2022-08-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.4	1175	1147	34.74%	19.31%	45.95%	-0.27	-15.5	0
2022-08-13	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-0	44.7	1161	1340	25.88%	19.10%	55.02%	-0.76	+43.2	3
2022-08-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	44.7	1340	1161	55.02%	19.10%	25.88%	+0.76	-43.2	0
2022-08-13	Flint Town United	L 0-1	44.1	1147	1165	47.25%	19.29%	33.46%	+0.34	-20.0	0
2022-08-13	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	44.1	1165	1147	33.46%	19.29%	47.25%	-0.34	+20.0	3
2022-08-13	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.3	1233	1386	28.96%	19.20%	51.85%	-0.58	+2.4	1
2022-08-13	@ Newtown	D 0-0	51.3	1386	1233	51.85%	19.20%	28.96%	+0.58	-2.4	1
2022-08-14	Bala Town	W 2-0	44.3	1146	1317	26.87%	19.13%	53.99%	-0.70	+42.5	3
2022-08-14	@ Penybont	L 0-2	44.3	1317	1146	53.99%	19.13%	26.87%	+0.70	-42.5	0
2022-08-19	Airbus UK	W 1-0	31.9	1297	1022	74.29%	17.20%	8.51%	+2.33	+4.3	3
2022-08-19	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	31.9	1022	1297	8.51%	17.20%	74.29%	-2.33	-4.3	0
2022-08-19	Flint Town United	L 0-2	44.7	1235	1185	55.76%	19.07%	25.17%	+0.80	-43.8	1
2022-08-19	@ Newtown	W 2-0	44.7	1185	1235	25.17%	19.07%	55.76%	-0.80	+43.8	6
2022-08-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-4	37.9	1149	1204	42.03%	19.34%	38.63%	+0.08	-64.7	3
2022-08-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	37.9	1204	1149	38.63%	19.34%	42.03%	-0.08	+64.7	6
2022-08-20	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.5	1274	1162	62.29%	18.72%	18.99%	+1.22	-4.3	1
2022-08-20	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	54.5	1162	1274	18.99%	18.72%	62.29%	-1.22	+4.3	4
2022-08-20	Penybont	W 1-0	34.1	1383	1189	69.21%	18.05%	12.74%	+1.78	+6.3	4
2022-08-20	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	34.1	1189	1383	12.74%	18.05%	69.21%	-1.78	-6.3	3
2022-08-20	Pontypridd United	W 2-0	36.0	1159	1127	53.66%	19.14%	27.20%	+0.68	+23.8	3
2022-08-20	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	36.0	1127	1159	27.20%	19.14%	53.66%	-0.68	-23.8	0
2022-08-26	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	42.5	1390	1301	59.95%	18.87%	21.18%	+1.06	+9.5	7
2022-08-26	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	42.5	1301	1390	21.18%	18.87%	59.95%	-1.06	-9.5	3
2022-08-26	Newtown	W 3-0	33.0	1270	1192	58.92%	18.92%	22.16%	+0.99	+28.9	4
2022-08-26	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	33.0	1192	1270	22.16%	18.92%	58.92%	-0.99	-28.9	1
2022-08-27	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	43.1	1103	1084	52.15%	19.19%	28.66%	+0.59	+12.4	3
2022-08-27	@ Pontypridd United	L 1-2	43.1	1084	1103	28.66%	19.19%	52.15%	-0.59	-12.4	3
2022-08-27	Airbus UK	W 3-0	30.7	1167	1018	65.65%	18.44%	15.91%	+1.47	+21.4	7
2022-08-27	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	30.7	1018	1167	15.91%	18.44%	65.65%	-1.47	-21.4	0
2022-08-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-1	42.4	1183	1269	37.72%	19.33%	42.95%	-0.12	+54.9	6
2022-08-27	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-5	42.4	1269	1183	42.95%	19.33%	37.72%	+0.12	-54.9	6
2022-08-27	Flint Town United	W 2-1	46.0	1182	1229	43.32%	19.33%	37.35%	+0.14	+15.5	6
2022-08-27	@ Penybont	L 1-2	46.0	1229	1182	37.35%	19.33%	43.32%	-0.14	-15.5	6
2022-08-30	Bala Town	W 1-0	40.3	1292	1299	48.75%	19.27%	31.99%	+0.41	+14.5	6
2022-08-30	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	40.3	1299	1292	31.99%	19.27%	48.75%	-0.41	-14.5	4
2022-08-30	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	47.2	1163	1238	39.26%	19.34%	41.40%	-0.05	+16.8	4
2022-08-30	@ Newtown	L 1-2	47.2	1238	1163	41.40%	19.34%	39.26%	+0.05	-16.9	6
2022-08-30	Flint Town United	L 1-3	39.3	996	1214	21.82%	18.91%	59.28%	-1.02	-17.0	0
2022-08-30	@ Airbus UK	W 3-1	39.3	1214	996	59.28%	18.91%	21.82%	+1.02	+17.0	9
2022-08-30	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	48.4	1198	1188	50.91%	19.22%	29.87%	+0.53	+12.2	9
2022-08-30	@ Penybont	L 2-3	48.4	1188	1198	29.87%	19.22%	50.91%	-0.53	-12.2	7
2022-08-30	Pontypridd United	W 3-0	32.2	1214	1116	60.98%	18.81%	20.22%	+1.13	+26.6	9
2022-08-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	32.2	1116	1214	20.22%	18.81%	60.98%	-1.13	-26.6	3
2022-08-30	The New Saints	L 0-2	31.7	1071	1399	12.89%	18.07%	69.04%	-1.77	-12.1	3
2022-08-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	31.7	1399	1071	69.04%	18.07%	12.89%	+1.77	+12.1	10
2022-09-02	Airbus UK	W 3-1	35.4	1221	979	72.36%	17.57%	10.07%	+2.10	+8.2	9
2022-09-02	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	35.4	979	1221	10.07%	17.57%	72.36%	-2.10	-8.2	0
2022-09-02	Bala Town	L 1-4	37.3	1059	1284	21.07%	18.86%	60.07%	-1.07	-23.3	3
2022-09-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	37.3	1284	1059	60.07%	18.86%	21.07%	+1.07	+23.3	7
2022-09-03	Flint Town United	W 1-0	39.1	1241	1231	50.97%	19.22%	29.82%	+0.53	+13.6	12
2022-09-03	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	39.1	1231	1241	29.82%	19.22%	50.97%	-0.53	-13.6	9
2022-09-03	Newtown	L 2-3	54.2	1176	1179	49.18%	19.26%	31.56%	+0.44	-18.5	7
2022-09-03	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	54.2	1179	1176	31.56%	19.26%	49.18%	-0.44	+18.5	7
2022-09-03	Penybont	W 2-0	34.3	1306	1210	60.76%	18.82%	20.42%	+1.11	+18.5	9
2022-09-03	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	34.3	1210	1306	20.42%	18.82%	60.76%	-1.11	-18.5	9
2022-09-03	The New Saints	L 0-2	31.9	1089	1411	13.27%	18.12%	68.60%	-1.73	-12.4	3
2022-09-03	@ Pontypridd United	W 2-0	31.9	1411	1089	68.60%	18.12%	13.27%	+1.73	+12.4	13
2022-09-16	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	54.2	1036	1325	15.60%	18.41%	65.99%	-1.50	+25.8	6
2022-09-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	54.2	1325	1036	65.99%	18.41%	15.60%	+1.50	-25.8	9
2022-09-17	Airbus UK	W 1-0	35.5	1077	971	61.72%	18.76%	19.53%	+1.18	+9.4	6
2022-09-17	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-1	35.5	971	1077	19.53%	18.76%	61.72%	-1.18	-9.4	0
2022-09-17	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.6	1217	1308	37.11%	19.33%	43.56%	-0.15	+0.6	10
2022-09-17	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.6	1308	1217	43.56%	19.33%	37.11%	+0.15	-0.6	8
2022-09-17	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	41.4	1229	1157	58.23%	18.96%	22.81%	+0.95	+10.2	12
2022-09-17	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	41.4	1157	1229	22.81%	18.96%	58.23%	-0.95	-10.2	7
2022-09-17	Penybont	L 2-3	54.6	1198	1192	50.48%	19.23%	30.29%	+0.50	-18.9	7
2022-09-17	@ Newtown	W 3-2	54.6	1192	1198	30.29%	19.23%	50.48%	-0.50	+18.9	12
2022-09-17	The New Saints	L 0-7	34.7	1254	1424	27.02%	19.14%	53.84%	-0.69	-76.0	12
2022-09-17	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 7-0	34.7	1424	1254	53.84%	19.14%	27.02%	+0.69	+76.0	16
2022-09-23	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	37.4	1211	1062	65.62%	18.45%	15.93%	+1.47	+12.8	15
2022-09-23	@ Penybont	L 1-3	37.4	1062	1211	15.93%	18.45%	65.62%	-1.47	-12.8	6
2022-09-23	Newtown	D 4-4	65.5	962	1179	21.82%	18.91%	59.28%	-1.02	+2.0	1
2022-09-23	@ Airbus UK	D 4-4	65.5	1179	962	59.28%	18.91%	21.82%	+1.02	-2.0	8
2022-09-24	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	33.3	1307	1179	63.84%	18.60%	17.55%	+1.33	+16.1	11
2022-09-24	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	33.3	1179	1307	17.55%	18.60%	63.84%	-1.33	-16.1	12
2022-09-24	Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.2	1147	1218	39.95%	19.34%	40.71%	-0.02	+0.1	8
2022-09-24	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.2	1218	1147	40.71%	19.34%	39.95%	+0.02	-0.1	11
2022-09-24	Pontypridd United	W 1-0	33.1	1299	1086	70.48%	17.87%	11.65%	+1.91	+5.8	12
2022-09-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	33.1	1086	1299	11.65%	17.87%	70.48%	-1.91	-5.8	6
2022-09-27	Airbus UK	W 2-1	40.8	1049	964	59.66%	18.88%	21.46%	+1.04	+9.7	9
2022-09-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	40.8	964	1049	21.46%	18.88%	59.66%	-1.04	-9.7	1
2022-09-27	Bala Town	L 0-2	37.2	1177	1323	29.79%	19.22%	50.99%	-0.53	-25.7	8
2022-09-27	@ Newtown	W 2-0	37.2	1323	1177	50.99%	19.22%	29.79%	+0.53	+25.7	14
2022-09-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	39.9	1147	1162	47.66%	19.28%	33.06%	+0.36	+14.9	11
2022-09-27	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	39.9	1162	1147	33.06%	19.28%	47.66%	-0.36	-14.9	12
2022-09-27	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	40.7	1240	1305	40.69%	19.34%	39.97%	+0.02	-33.2	12
2022-09-27	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	40.7	1305	1240	39.97%	19.34%	40.69%	-0.02	+33.2	15
2022-09-27	Flint Town United	W 6-2	35.3	1500	1218	74.66%	17.12%	8.22%	+2.38	+10.4	19
2022-09-27	@ The New Saints	L 2-6	35.3	1218	1500	8.22%	17.12%	74.66%	-2.38	-10.4	11
2022-09-27	Pontypridd United	D 1-1	54.4	1223	1081	65.11%	18.49%	16.39%	+1.43	-4.9	16
2022-09-27	@ Penybont	D 1-1	54.4	1081	1223	16.39%	18.49%	65.11%	-1.43	+4.9	7
2022-09-30	Bala Town	L 0-6	27.1	954	1349	9.23%	17.38%	73.39%	-2.22	-24.2	1
2022-09-30	@ Airbus UK	W 6-0	27.1	1349	954	73.39%	17.38%	9.23%	+2.22	+24.2	17
2022-09-30	Newtown	W 4-1	33.1	1510	1151	78.28%	16.17%	5.55%	+2.90	+6.4	22
2022-09-30	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	33.1	1151	1510	5.55%	16.17%	78.28%	-2.90	-6.4	8
2022-10-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	40.8	1148	1059	60.01%	18.86%	21.12%	+1.06	+9.5	15
2022-10-01	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	40.8	1059	1148	21.12%	18.86%	60.01%	-1.06	-9.5	9
2022-10-01	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	47.2	1085	1206	33.00%	19.28%	47.72%	-0.36	+32.9	10
2022-10-01	@ Pontypridd United	L 1-3	47.2	1206	1085	47.72%	19.28%	33.00%	+0.36	-32.9	12
2022-10-01	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	34.2	1338	1162	67.82%	18.22%	13.96%	+1.66	+6.9	18
2022-10-01	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	34.2	1162	1338	13.96%	18.22%	67.82%	-1.66	-6.9	11
2022-10-01	Penybont	D 1-1	54.3	1207	1218	48.17%	19.28%	32.55%	+0.38	-1.4	12
2022-10-01	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.3	1218	1207	32.55%	19.28%	48.17%	-0.38	+1.4	17
2022-10-14	Flint Town United	W 2-0	38.6	1173	1206	45.34%	19.31%	35.35%	+0.24	+29.6	15
2022-10-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	38.6	1206	1173	35.35%	19.31%	45.34%	-0.24	-29.6	12
2022-10-14	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	48.3	1049	1155	34.98%	19.31%	45.71%	-0.26	+18.3	12
2022-10-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	48.3	1155	1049	45.71%	19.31%	34.98%	+0.26	-18.3	11
2022-10-14	Newtown	L 1-4	44.8	1118	1145	46.10%	19.30%	34.59%	+0.28	-45.2	10
2022-10-14	@ Pontypridd United	W 4-1	44.8	1145	1118	34.59%	19.30%	46.10%	-0.28	+45.2	11
2022-10-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	31.9	1345	1157	68.72%	18.11%	13.17%	+1.74	+12.3	21
2022-10-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	31.9	1157	1345	13.17%	18.11%	68.72%	-1.74	-12.3	15
2022-10-15	Penybont	L 0-3	30.6	930	1220	15.50%	18.40%	66.10%	-1.51	-20.9	1
2022-10-15	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	30.6	1220	930	66.10%	18.40%	15.50%	+1.51	+20.9	20
2022-10-15	The New Saints	L 0-5	39.9	1373	1516	30.12%	19.23%	50.66%	-0.51	-60.6	17
2022-10-15	@ Bala Town	W 5-0	39.9	1516	1373	50.66%	19.23%	30.12%	+0.51	+60.6	25
2022-10-21	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	39.5	1203	1067	64.48%	18.55%	16.97%	+1.38	+7.8	18
2022-10-21	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	39.5	1067	1203	16.97%	18.55%	64.48%	-1.38	-7.8	12
2022-10-22	Airbus UK	W 1-0	31.9	1176	909	73.84%	17.29%	8.86%	+2.28	+4.4	15
2022-10-22	@ Flint Town United	L 0-1	31.9	909	1176	8.86%	17.29%	73.84%	-2.28	-4.4	1
2022-10-22	Bala Town	L 1-4	39.1	1137	1312	26.29%	19.11%	54.60%	-0.73	-28.3	11
2022-10-22	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-1	39.1	1312	1137	54.60%	19.11%	26.29%	+0.73	+28.3	20
2022-10-22	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	46.5	1190	1145	55.25%	19.09%	25.66%	+0.77	-23.0	11
2022-10-22	@ Newtown	W 1-0	46.5	1145	1190	25.66%	19.09%	55.25%	-0.77	+23.0	18
2022-10-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-1	40.8	1241	1357	33.58%	19.29%	47.13%	-0.33	-15.1	20
2022-10-22	@ Penybont	W 1-0	40.8	1357	1241	47.13%	19.29%	33.58%	+0.33	+15.1	24
2022-10-22	Pontypridd United	W 2-0	28.4	1577	1073	83.27%	14.11%	2.61%	+3.89	+2.4	28
2022-10-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	28.4	1073	1577	2.61%	14.11%	83.27%	-3.89	-2.4	10
2022-10-25	Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	30.2	1579	1211	78.69%	16.03%	5.28%	+2.97	+7.2	31
2022-10-25	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	30.2	1211	1579	5.28%	16.03%	78.69%	-2.97	-7.2	18
2022-10-28	Flint Town United	W 2-1	48.9	1060	1180	33.01%	19.28%	47.71%	-0.36	+19.0	15
2022-10-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	48.9	1180	1060	47.71%	19.28%	33.01%	+0.36	-19.0	15
2022-10-28	Newtown	W 3-1	36.7	1372	1167	69.96%	17.95%	12.09%	+1.85	+9.8	27
2022-10-28	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-3	36.7	1167	1372	12.09%	17.95%	69.96%	-1.85	-9.8	11
2022-10-29	Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	39.8	1168	1204	44.84%	19.32%	35.84%	+0.22	-52.3	18
2022-10-29	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	39.8	1204	1168	35.84%	19.32%	44.84%	-0.22	+52.3	21
2022-10-29	Penybont	D 1-1	55.0	1341	1226	62.59%	18.70%	18.71%	+1.24	-4.4	21
2022-10-29	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	55.0	1226	1341	18.71%	18.70%	62.59%	-1.24	+4.3	21
2022-10-29	Pontypridd United	L 0-4	33.3	904	1071	27.35%	19.15%	53.50%	-0.67	-45.3	1
2022-10-29	@ Airbus UK	W 4-0	33.3	1071	904	53.50%	19.15%	27.35%	+0.67	+45.3	13
2022-10-29	The New Saints	L 1-3	35.6	1109	1587	6.04%	16.38%	77.58%	-2.79	-4.9	11
2022-10-29	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	35.6	1587	1109	77.58%	16.38%	6.04%	+2.79	+4.9	34
2022-11-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	28.6	1336	1079	73.30%	17.40%	9.30%	+2.21	+12.8	24
2022-11-04	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	28.6	1079	1336	9.30%	17.40%	73.30%	-2.21	-12.8	15
2022-11-05	Airbus UK	W 2-1	36.1	1157	859	75.50%	16.93%	7.57%	+2.49	+3.6	14
2022-11-05	@ Newtown	L 1-2	36.1	859	1157	7.57%	16.93%	75.50%	-2.49	-3.6	1
2022-11-05	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-0	26.6	1591	1115	82.46%	14.52%	3.02%	+3.70	+5.2	37
2022-11-05	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	26.6	1115	1591	3.02%	14.52%	82.46%	-3.70	-5.2	18
2022-11-05	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	46.8	1161	1104	56.67%	19.03%	24.30%	+0.85	-23.6	15
2022-11-05	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	46.8	1104	1161	24.30%	19.03%	56.67%	-0.85	+23.5	14
2022-11-05	Penybont	L 0-2	44.1	1256	1230	52.92%	19.17%	27.91%	+0.64	-41.7	21
2022-11-05	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	44.1	1230	1256	27.91%	19.17%	52.92%	-0.64	+41.7	24
2022-11-06	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-5	30.2	1116	1382	17.39%	18.59%	64.02%	-1.35	-37.4	13
2022-11-06	@ Pontypridd United	W 5-0	30.2	1382	1116	64.02%	18.59%	17.39%	+1.35	+37.4	30
2022-11-18	Caernarfon Town	D 3-3	64.7	1419	1214	69.97%	17.95%	12.09%	+1.86	-3.7	31
2022-11-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 3-3	64.7	1214	1419	12.09%	17.95%	69.97%	-1.86	+3.7	22
2022-11-18	Pontypridd United	W 2-1	44.4	1066	1079	47.97%	19.28%	32.75%	+0.37	+13.9	18
2022-11-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	44.4	1079	1066	32.75%	19.28%	47.97%	-0.37	-13.9	13
2022-11-19	Bala Town	W 1-0	48.5	1110	1349	19.76%	18.77%	61.46%	-1.16	+25.5	21
2022-11-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	48.5	1349	1110	61.46%	18.77%	19.76%	+1.16	-25.5	24
2022-11-19	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	39.4	856	1127	16.93%	18.54%	64.53%	-1.39	-7.8	1
2022-11-19	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	39.4	1127	856	64.53%	18.54%	16.93%	+1.39	+7.8	17
2022-11-19	Newtown	L 1-4	45.0	1138	1161	46.61%	19.30%	34.09%	+0.30	-45.6	15
2022-11-19	@ Flint Town United	W 4-1	45.0	1161	1138	34.09%	19.30%	46.61%	-0.30	+45.6	17
2022-11-19	The New Saints	D 0-0	56.0	1272	1597	13.07%	18.09%	68.84%	-1.75	+6.4	25
2022-11-19	@ Penybont	D 0-0	56.0	1597	1272	68.84%	18.09%	13.07%	+1.75	-6.3	38
2022-12-02	Aberystwyth Town	W 11-0	26.3	1590	1080	83.46%	14.01%	2.52%	+3.93	+11.3	41
2022-12-02	@ The New Saints	L 0-11	26.3	1080	1590	2.52%	14.01%	83.46%	-3.93	-11.3	18
2022-12-02	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	41.9	1065	1136	39.89%	19.34%	40.77%	-0.02	-17.3	13
2022-12-02	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	41.9	1136	1065	40.77%	19.34%	39.89%	+0.02	+17.3	24
2022-12-02	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	34.5	848	1416	3.79%	15.15%	81.06%	-3.40	-1.8	1
2022-12-02	@ Airbus UK	W 2-1	34.5	1416	848	81.06%	15.15%	3.79%	+3.40	+1.8	34
2022-12-02	Flint Town United	W 1-0	32.8	1324	1092	71.70%	17.68%	10.62%	+2.03	+5.3	27
2022-12-02	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	32.8	1092	1324	10.62%	17.68%	71.70%	-2.03	-5.3	15
2022-12-02	Newtown	L 2-3	54.9	1218	1206	51.12%	19.22%	29.67%	+0.54	-19.2	22
2022-12-02	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	54.9	1206	1218	29.67%	19.22%	51.12%	-0.54	+19.2	20
2022-12-02	Penybont	W 2-1	49.9	1135	1278	30.17%	19.23%	50.61%	-0.51	+20.0	20
2022-12-02	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	49.9	1278	1135	50.61%	19.23%	30.17%	+0.51	-20.0	25
2022-12-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.1	1087	1153	40.59%	19.34%	40.07%	+0.01	-0.0	16
2022-12-10	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.1	1153	1087	40.07%	19.34%	40.59%	-0.01	+0.0	25
2022-12-11	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	34.8	1226	1155	58.08%	18.97%	22.95%	+0.94	+20.5	23
2022-12-11	@ Newtown	L 0-2	34.8	1155	1226	22.95%	18.97%	58.08%	-0.94	-20.5	20
2022-12-16	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	36.5	1153	1135	52.01%	19.19%	28.80%	+0.59	+25.0	28
2022-12-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	36.5	1135	1153	28.80%	19.19%	52.01%	-0.59	-25.0	20
2022-12-16	Pontypridd United	W 4-2	40.3	1246	1047	69.51%	18.01%	12.49%	+1.81	+9.1	26
2022-12-16	@ Newtown	L 2-4	40.3	1047	1246	12.49%	18.01%	69.51%	-1.81	-9.1	13
2022-12-20	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	27.4	1418	1068	77.87%	16.29%	5.83%	+2.83	+8.0	37
2022-12-20	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-3	27.4	1068	1418	5.83%	16.29%	77.87%	-2.83	-8.0	18
2022-12-22	Newtown	W 2-1	47.3	1178	1255	38.99%	19.34%	41.68%	-0.06	+16.9	31
2022-12-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	47.3	1255	1178	41.68%	19.34%	38.99%	+0.06	-16.9	26
2022-12-23	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	40.4	1110	1061	55.67%	19.07%	25.25%	+0.79	+19.3	23
2022-12-23	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-3	40.4	1061	1110	25.25%	19.07%	55.67%	-0.79	-19.3	18
2022-12-23	Airbus UK	W 2-1	34.0	1329	846	82.66%	14.42%	2.92%	+3.74	+1.3	30
2022-12-23	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	34.0	846	1329	2.92%	14.42%	82.66%	-3.74	-1.3	1
2022-12-23	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	48.5	1087	1199	34.21%	19.30%	46.49%	-0.30	+18.6	19
2022-12-23	@ Flint Town United	L 1-2	48.5	1199	1087	46.49%	19.30%	34.21%	+0.30	-18.6	22
2022-12-23	Penybont	L 0-1	36.3	1038	1258	21.59%	18.89%	59.52%	-1.03	-10.3	13
2022-12-23	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	36.3	1258	1038	59.52%	18.89%	21.59%	+1.03	+10.3	28
2022-12-23	The New Saints	D 1-1	65.1	1426	1602	26.21%	19.11%	54.68%	-0.74	+2.7	38
2022-12-23	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	65.1	1602	1426	54.68%	19.11%	26.21%	+0.74	-2.7	42
2022-12-26	Airbus UK	W 7-0	22.8	1599	845	88.90%	10.41%	0.69%	+5.59	+1.8	45
2022-12-26	@ The New Saints	L 0-7	22.8	845	1599	0.69%	10.41%	88.90%	-5.59	-1.9	1
2022-12-26	Bala Town	L 1-5	38.4	1180	1330	29.30%	19.21%	51.49%	-0.56	-40.0	22
2022-12-26	@ Caernarfon Town	W 5-1	38.4	1330	1180	51.49%	19.21%	29.30%	+0.56	+40.0	33
2022-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	50.6	1268	1195	58.39%	18.95%	22.66%	+0.96	-39.6	28
2022-12-26	@ Penybont	W 3-1	50.6	1195	1268	22.66%	18.95%	58.39%	-0.96	+39.6	34
2022-12-26	Flint Town United	W 2-0	29.6	1428	1106	76.69%	16.63%	6.68%	+2.65	+6.3	41
2022-12-26	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	29.6	1106	1428	6.68%	16.63%	76.69%	-2.65	-6.3	19
2022-12-26	Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	52.8	1028	1129	35.69%	19.32%	44.99%	-0.22	+17.1	16
2022-12-26	@ Pontypridd United	L 2-3	52.8	1129	1028	44.99%	19.32%	35.69%	+0.22	-17.1	23
2022-12-26	Newtown	L 1-2	41.7	1041	1238	23.91%	19.01%	57.08%	-0.88	-10.6	18
2022-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	41.7	1238	1041	57.08%	19.01%	23.91%	+0.88	+10.6	29
2022-12-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-1	30.9	1249	1031	70.86%	17.82%	11.33%	+1.94	+20.6	32
2022-12-30	@ Newtown	L 1-6	30.9	1031	1249	11.33%	17.82%	70.86%	-1.94	-20.6	18
2022-12-30	Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	29.4	1370	1140	71.63%	17.70%	10.68%	+2.02	+14.6	36
2022-12-30	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	29.4	1140	1370	10.68%	17.70%	71.63%	-2.02	-14.6	22
2022-12-30	Penybont	D 0-0	50.6	1235	1229	50.40%	19.23%	30.37%	+0.50	-2.1	35
2022-12-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.6	1229	1235	30.37%	19.23%	50.40%	-0.50	+2.1	29
2022-12-31	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	51.2	1099	1435	12.42%	18.00%	69.58%	-1.82	+6.5	20
2022-12-31	@ Flint Town United	D 0-0	51.2	1435	1099	69.58%	18.00%	12.42%	+1.82	-6.5	42
2022-12-31	Pontypridd United	D 1-1	54.2	1112	1045	57.64%	18.99%	23.37%	+0.91	-3.3	24
2022-12-31	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.2	1045	1112	23.37%	18.99%	57.64%	-0.91	+3.3	17
2022-12-31	The New Saints	L 0-8	23.8	843	1601	1.40%	12.34%	86.26%	-4.69	-4.5	1
2022-12-31	@ Airbus UK	W 8-0	23.8	1601	843	86.26%	12.34%	1.40%	+4.69	+4.5	48
2023-01-03	Airbus UK	W 2-0	28.2	1231	838	79.63%	15.71%	4.66%	+3.13	+4.3	32
2023-01-03	@ Penybont	L 0-2	28.2	838	1231	4.66%	15.71%	79.63%	-3.13	-4.4	1
2023-01-03	Bala Town	W 2-1	55.3	1049	1385	12.36%	17.99%	69.65%	-1.82	+27.2	20
2023-01-03	@ Pontypridd United	L 1-2	55.3	1385	1049	69.65%	17.99%	12.36%	+1.82	-27.2	36
2023-01-03	The New Saints	L 0-1	33.1	1126	1605	5.98%	16.35%	77.66%	-2.80	-3.0	22
2023-01-03	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	33.1	1605	1126	77.66%	16.35%	5.98%	+2.80	+3.0	51
2023-01-06	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.2	1106	1010	60.72%	18.82%	20.45%	+1.11	-4.0	21
2023-01-06	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.2	1010	1106	20.45%	18.82%	60.72%	-1.11	+4.0	19
2023-01-07	Caernarfon Town	W 5-1	34.8	1235	1123	62.38%	18.71%	18.91%	+1.23	+27.3	35
2023-01-07	@ Penybont	L 1-5	34.8	1123	1235	18.91%	18.71%	62.38%	-1.23	-27.3	22
2023-01-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	30.0	834	1232	9.06%	17.34%	73.60%	-2.25	-8.6	1
2023-01-07	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	30.0	1232	834	73.60%	17.34%	9.06%	+2.25	+8.6	38
2023-01-07	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	52.1	1270	1428	28.27%	19.18%	52.55%	-0.62	+2.6	33
2023-01-07	@ Newtown	D 0-0	52.1	1428	1270	52.55%	19.18%	28.27%	+0.62	-2.6	43
2023-01-07	Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	34.2	1608	1108	83.16%	14.17%	2.67%	+3.86	+2.1	54
2023-01-07	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	34.2	1108	1608	2.67%	14.17%	83.16%	-3.86	-2.1	24
2023-01-07	Pontypridd United	W 3-0	28.2	1358	1076	74.65%	17.12%	8.22%	+2.38	+11.3	39
2023-01-07	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	28.2	1076	1358	8.22%	17.12%	74.65%	-2.38	-11.3	20
2023-01-10	Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	31.1	825	1095	17.08%	18.56%	64.36%	-1.37	-22.8	1
2023-01-10	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	31.1	1095	825	64.36%	18.56%	17.08%	+1.37	+22.8	25
2023-01-10	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	53.7	1369	1425	41.95%	19.34%	38.71%	+0.08	-0.3	40
2023-01-10	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	53.7	1425	1369	38.71%	19.34%	41.95%	-0.08	+0.3	44
2023-01-10	Penybont	L 0-3	31.7	1014	1262	18.88%	18.71%	62.41%	-1.23	-25.0	19
2023-01-10	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	31.7	1262	1014	62.41%	18.71%	18.88%	+1.23	+25.0	38
2023-01-10	The New Saints	L 1-8	29.1	1102	1610	5.16%	15.97%	78.87%	-3.00	-12.8	21
2023-01-10	@ Flint Town United	W 8-1	29.1	1610	1102	78.87%	15.97%	5.16%	+3.00	+12.8	57
2023-01-21	Airbus UK	W 3-1	32.7	1241	803	81.26%	15.07%	3.68%	+3.44	+3.0	41
2023-01-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	32.7	803	1241	3.68%	15.07%	81.26%	-3.44	-2.9	1
2023-01-21	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	49.2	989	1118	31.92%	19.26%	48.82%	-0.42	+19.4	22
2023-01-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	49.2	1118	989	48.82%	19.26%	31.92%	+0.42	-19.4	25
2023-01-21	Pontypridd United	W 4-1	39.4	1089	1064	52.75%	19.17%	28.08%	+0.63	+29.9	24
2023-01-21	@ Flint Town United	L 1-4	39.4	1064	1089	28.08%	19.17%	52.75%	-0.63	-29.9	20
2023-01-28	Newtown	W 3-0	35.6	1288	1272	51.62%	19.20%	29.18%	+0.57	+36.7	41
2023-01-28	@ Penybont	L 0-3	35.6	1272	1288	29.18%	19.20%	51.62%	-0.57	-36.7	33
2023-01-31	Bala Town	W 3-0	38.1	1623	1369	73.12%	17.43%	9.45%	+2.19	+13.0	60
2023-01-31	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	38.1	1369	1623	9.45%	17.43%	73.12%	-2.19	-13.0	40
2023-01-31	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 2-1	55.3	1106	1426	13.43%	18.15%	68.42%	-1.71	+26.7	27
2023-01-31	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	55.3	1426	1106	68.42%	18.15%	13.43%	+1.71	-26.7	44

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2023-02-11	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-0	30.4	1119	1008	62.18%	18.73%	19.09%	+1.21	+40.7	3
2023-02-11	@ Flint Town United	L 0-5	30.4	1008	1119	19.09%	18.73%	62.18%	-1.21	-40.7	0
2023-02-11	Airbus UK	W 4-0	27.8	1035	800	71.93%	17.65%	10.43%	+2.06	+18.7	3
2023-02-11	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-4	27.8	800	1035	10.43%	17.65%	71.93%	-2.06	-18.7	0
2023-02-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.3	1235	1399	27.67%	19.16%	53.18%	-0.65	+2.4	1
2023-02-11	@ Newtown	D 1-1	55.3	1399	1235	53.18%	19.16%	27.67%	+0.65	-2.4	1
2023-02-11	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	38.6	1099	1133	45.05%	19.32%	35.63%	+0.23	+29.8	3
2023-02-11	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	38.6	1133	1099	35.63%	19.32%	45.05%	-0.23	-29.8	0
2023-02-11	Penybont	D 0-0	51.9	1356	1324	53.60%	19.15%	27.25%	+0.67	-2.8	1
2023-02-11	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	51.9	1324	1356	27.25%	19.15%	53.60%	-0.67	+2.8	1
2023-02-11	The New Saints	W 3-2	66.5	1244	1636	9.35%	17.41%	73.24%	-2.20	+27.1	3
2023-02-11	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	66.5	1636	1244	73.24%	17.41%	9.35%	+2.20	-27.1	0
2023-02-17	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	30.9	781	1129	11.69%	17.88%	70.43%	-1.90	-11.0	0
2023-02-17	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	30.9	1129	781	70.43%	17.88%	11.69%	+1.90	+11.0	6
2023-02-17	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	42.7	1327	1271	56.46%	19.04%	24.50%	+0.84	+10.9	4
2023-02-17	@ Penybont	L 1-2	42.7	1271	1327	24.50%	19.04%	56.46%	-0.84	-10.8	3
2023-02-18	Bala Town	D 1-1	56.8	1397	1353	55.06%	19.10%	25.85%	+0.76	-2.8	2
2023-02-18	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	56.8	1353	1397	25.85%	19.10%	55.06%	-0.76	+2.8	2
2023-02-18	Flint Town United	W 3-1	44.5	1103	1160	41.97%	19.34%	38.70%	+0.08	+27.6	3
2023-02-18	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-3	44.5	1160	1103	38.70%	19.34%	41.97%	-0.08	-27.6	3
2023-02-18	Newtown	W 1-0	35.2	1609	1238	78.79%	16.00%	5.21%	+2.98	+2.6	3
2023-02-18	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	35.2	1238	1609	5.21%	16.00%	78.79%	-2.98	-2.6	1
2023-02-18	Pontypridd United	D 3-3	63.1	968	1053	37.80%	19.33%	42.87%	-0.12	+0.3	1
2023-02-18	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 3-3	63.1	1053	968	42.87%	19.33%	37.80%	+0.12	-0.3	4
2023-02-24	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-7	34.0	770	968	23.83%	19.01%	57.16%	-0.88	-48.6	0
2023-02-24	@ Airbus UK	W 7-1	34.0	968	770	57.16%	19.01%	23.83%	+0.88	+48.6	4
2023-02-24	Flint Town United	D 2-2	59.2	1140	1132	50.63%	19.23%	30.15%	+0.51	-1.4	7
2023-02-24	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.2	1132	1140	30.15%	19.23%	50.63%	-0.51	+1.4	4
2023-02-25	Bala Town	W 3-2	54.5	1235	1356	33.07%	19.28%	47.65%	-0.36	+18.0	4
2023-02-25	@ Newtown	L 2-3	54.5	1356	1235	47.65%	19.28%	33.07%	+0.36	-18.0	2
2023-02-25	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	40.8	1394	1260	64.31%	18.56%	17.13%	+1.37	+7.9	5
2023-02-25	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.8	1260	1394	17.13%	18.56%	64.31%	-1.37	-7.9	3
2023-02-25	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	47.1	1053	1131	38.88%	19.34%	41.78%	-0.07	+17.0	7
2023-02-25	@ Pontypridd United	L 1-2	47.1	1131	1053	41.78%	19.34%	38.88%	+0.07	-17.0	3
2023-02-25	Penybont	D 1-1	62.8	1612	1338	74.21%	17.22%	8.57%	+2.32	-6.8	4
2023-02-25	@ The New Saints	D 1-1	62.8	1338	1612	8.57%	17.22%	74.21%	-2.32	+6.8	5
2023-03-10	Newtown	D 0-0	50.7	1252	1253	49.53%	19.25%	31.22%	+0.45	-1.9	4
2023-03-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.7	1253	1252	31.22%	19.25%	49.53%	-0.45	+1.9	5
2023-03-11	Airbus UK	W 2-1	34.6	1133	722	80.34%	15.44%	4.22%	+3.26	+2.0	7
2023-03-11	@ Flint Town United	L 1-2	34.6	722	1133	4.22%	15.44%	80.34%	-3.26	-2.0	0
2023-03-11	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	42.0	1070	1138	40.27%	19.34%	40.39%	+0.00	+17.5	10
2023-03-11	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-1	42.0	1138	1070	40.39%	19.34%	40.27%	+0.00	-17.5	7
2023-03-11	Connah's Quay Nomads	D 1-1	56.6	1345	1402	41.87%	19.34%	38.80%	+0.07	-0.3	6
2023-03-11	@ Penybont	D 1-1	56.6	1402	1345	38.80%	19.34%	41.87%	-0.07	+0.3	6
2023-03-11	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.7	1016	1114	36.15%	19.32%	44.53%	-0.20	-16.0	4
2023-03-11	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	40.7	1114	1016	44.53%	19.32%	36.15%	+0.20	+16.0	6
2023-03-13	Bala Town	W 2-1	44.4	1605	1338	73.84%	17.29%	8.86%	+2.28	+4.2	7
2023-03-13	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	44.4	1338	1605	8.86%	17.29%	73.84%	-2.28	-4.2	2
2023-03-17	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	48.6	1121	1000	63.08%	18.66%	18.26%	+1.28	-26.1	7
2023-03-17	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	48.6	1000	1121	18.26%	18.66%	63.08%	-1.28	+26.1	7
2023-03-17	The New Saints	D 0-0	60.7	1402	1609	22.87%	18.96%	58.17%	-0.95	+3.8	7
2023-03-17	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	60.7	1609	1402	58.17%	18.96%	22.87%	+0.95	-3.9	8
2023-03-18	Airbus UK	W 4-0	25.3	1130	720	80.29%	15.46%	4.25%	+3.25	+7.5	9
2023-03-18	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-4	25.3	720	1130	4.25%	15.46%	80.29%	-3.25	-7.5	0
2023-03-18	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	51.1	1333	1250	59.42%	18.90%	21.69%	+1.03	-4.1	3
2023-03-18	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	51.1	1250	1333	21.69%	18.90%	59.42%	-1.03	+4.1	5
2023-03-18	Penybont	L 0-1	42.0	1255	1344	37.30%	19.33%	43.37%	-0.15	-16.4	5
2023-03-18	@ Newtown	W 1-0	42.0	1344	1255	43.37%	19.33%	37.30%	+0.15	+16.4	9
2023-03-18	Pontypridd United	D 0-0	50.3	1135	1087	55.54%	19.08%	25.38%	+0.79	-3.2	8
2023-03-18	@ Flint Town United	D 0-0	50.3	1087	1135	25.38%	19.08%	55.54%	-0.79	+3.2	11
2023-03-24	Newtown	W 2-0	33.2	1406	1239	67.12%	18.29%	14.58%	+1.60	+13.6	10
2023-03-24	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	33.2	1239	1406	14.58%	18.29%	67.12%	-1.60	-13.6	5
2023-03-25	Bala Town	D 2-2	60.9	1361	1329	53.59%	19.15%	27.26%	+0.67	-1.9	10
2023-03-25	@ Penybont	D 2-2	60.9	1329	1361	27.26%	19.15%	53.59%	-0.67	+1.9	4
2023-03-25	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.2	1137	1094	54.96%	19.10%	25.94%	+0.75	-2.1	10
2023-03-25	@ Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	59.2	1094	1137	25.94%	19.10%	54.96%	-0.75	+2.1	8
2023-03-25	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 7-1	33.0	1605	1255	77.94%	16.27%	5.79%	+2.84	+12.5	11
2023-03-25	@ The New Saints	L 1-7	33.0	1255	1605	5.79%	16.27%	77.94%	-2.84	-12.5	5
2023-03-25	Flint Town United	W 1-0	43.6	1027	1132	35.05%	19.31%	45.64%	-0.26	+19.4	10
2023-03-25	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	43.6	1132	1027	45.64%	19.31%	35.05%	+0.26	-19.4	8
2023-03-25	Pontypridd United	L 0-3	28.6	712	1091	10.01%	17.56%	72.43%	-2.11	-13.7	0
2023-03-25	@ Airbus UK	W 3-0	28.6	1091	712	72.43%	17.56%	10.01%	+2.11	+13.7	14
2023-03-31	Airbus UK	W 4-0	25.4	1097	698	79.84%	15.63%	4.53%	+3.17	+8.0	11
2023-03-31	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-4	25.4	698	1097	4.53%	15.63%	79.84%	-3.17	-8.0	0
2023-03-31	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 1-2	48.4	1331	1419	37.44%	19.33%	43.23%	-0.14	-15.5	4
2023-03-31	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	48.4	1419	1331	43.23%	19.33%	37.44%	+0.14	+15.5	13
2023-03-31	Penybont	L 2-3	50.3	1242	1359	33.53%	19.29%	47.18%	-0.33	-13.5	5
2023-03-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-2	50.3	1359	1242	47.18%	19.29%	33.53%	+0.33	+13.4	13
2023-04-01	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.2	1104	1046	56.74%	19.03%	24.23%	+0.86	-3.1	15
2023-04-01	@ Pontypridd United	D 1-1	54.2	1046	1104	24.23%	19.03%	56.74%	-0.86	+3.1	11
2023-04-01	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	41.9	1113	1135	46.66%	19.30%	34.04%	+0.31	-37.3	8
2023-04-01	@ Flint Town United	W 2-0	41.9	1135	1113	34.04%	19.30%	46.66%	-0.31	+37.3	13
2023-04-01	The New Saints	L 0-5	31.7	1225	1618	9.34%	17.41%	73.25%	-2.21	-20.6	5
2023-04-01	@ Newtown	W 5-0	31.7	1618	1225	73.25%	17.41%	9.34%	+2.21	+20.6	14
2023-04-07	Newtown	L 1-2	53.5	1316	1205	62.23%	18.72%	19.05%	+1.22	-24.3	4
2023-04-07	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	53.5	1205	1316	19.05%	18.72%	62.23%	-1.22	+24.3	8
2023-04-07	Pontypridd United	W 2-0	34.7	1173	1101	58.17%	18.96%	22.87%	+0.95	+20.4	16
2023-04-07	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	34.7	1101	1173	22.87%	18.96%	58.17%	-0.95	-20.4	15
2023-04-08	Airbus UK	D 1-1	55.0	1049	690	78.29%	16.16%	5.55%	+2.90	-7.6	12
2023-04-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.0	690	1049	5.55%	16.16%	78.29%	-2.90	+7.6	1
2023-04-08	Connah's Quay Nomads	L 0-2	36.1	1229	1435	22.94%	18.97%	58.10%	-0.94	-20.5	5
2023-04-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	36.1	1435	1229	58.10%	18.97%	22.94%	+0.94	+20.5	16
2023-04-08	The New Saints	L 2-5	49.4	1372	1638	17.40%	18.59%	64.01%	-1.35	-17.0	13
2023-04-08	@ Penybont	W 5-2	49.4	1638	1372	64.01%	18.59%	17.40%	+1.35	+17.0	17
2023-04-14	Flint Town United	L 1-3	35.3	698	1075	10.06%	17.57%	72.37%	-2.10	-8.2	1
2023-04-14	@ Airbus UK	W 3-1	35.3	1075	698	72.37%	17.57%	10.06%	+2.10	+8.2	11
2023-04-14	The New Saints	L 0-2	38.6	1291	1655	10.78%	17.71%	71.50%	-2.01	-10.2	4
2023-04-14	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	38.6	1655	1291	71.50%	17.71%	10.78%	+2.01	+10.2	20
2023-04-15	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.4	1193	1042	65.86%	18.42%	15.72%	+1.49	-5.0	17
2023-04-15	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.4	1042	1193	15.72%	18.42%	65.86%	-1.49	+5.0	13
2023-04-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	50.4	1229	1208	52.29%	19.18%	28.52%	+0.60	-20.6	8
2023-04-15	@ Newtown	W 2-1	50.4	1208	1229	28.52%	19.18%	52.29%	-0.60	+20.6	8
2023-04-15	Penybont	D 0-0	54.2	1455	1355	61.14%	18.80%	20.06%	+1.14	-4.5	17
2023-04-15	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	D 0-0	54.2	1355	1455	20.06%	18.80%	61.14%	-1.14	+4.5	14
2023-04-15	Pontypridd United	L 1-2	50.3	1105	1081	52.65%	19.17%	28.17%	+0.62	-20.7	11
2023-04-15	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	50.3	1081	1105	28.17%	19.17%	52.65%	-0.62	+20.7	18
2023-04-19	Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	54.2	1084	1084	49.64%	19.25%	31.11%	+0.46	-18.7	11
2023-04-19	@ Flint Town United	W 3-2	54.2	1084	1084	31.11%	19.25%	49.64%	-0.46	+18.7	14
2023-04-22	Bala Town	W 2-1	46.5	1229	1281	42.51%	19.33%	38.15%	+0.10	+15.8	11
2023-04-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	46.5	1281	1229	38.15%	19.33%	42.51%	-0.10	-15.8	4
2023-04-22	Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	50.9	1047	1102	42.03%	19.34%	38.63%	+0.08	+15.1	16
2023-04-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	50.9	1102	1047	38.63%	19.34%	42.03%	-0.08	-15.1	14
2023-04-22	Connah's Quay Nomads	W 4-1	48.1	1665	1451	70.60%	17.85%	11.55%	+1.92	+13.3	23
2023-04-22	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	48.1	1451	1665	11.55%	17.85%	70.60%	-1.92	-13.3	17
2023-04-22	Flint Town United	W 3-2	47.3	1102	1065	54.20%	19.13%	26.67%	+0.71	+11.1	21
2023-04-22	@ Pontypridd United	L 2-3	47.3	1065	1102	26.67%	19.13%	54.20%	-0.71	-11.1	11
2023-04-22	Haverfordwest County	L 1-4	31.6	690	1188	5.44%	16.11%	78.45%	-2.93	-6.2	1
2023-04-22	@ Airbus UK	W 4-1	31.6	1188	690	78.45%	16.11%	5.44%	+2.93	+6.3	20
2023-04-22	Newtown	W 2-1	39.7	1360	1208	65.87%	18.42%	15.71%	+1.49	+7.3	17
2023-04-22	@ Penybont	L 1-2	39.7	1208	1360	15.71%	18.42%	65.87%	-1.49	-7.3	8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-02-11	9.35%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1244	3	The New Saints	1636	2
2	2023-01-03	12.36%	@ Pontypridd United	1049	2	Bala Town	1385	1
3	2023-01-31	13.43%	@ Haverfordwest County	1106	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1426	1
4	2022-09-16	15.60%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1036	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1325	1
5	2023-03-17	18.26%	Aberystwyth Town	1000	1	@ Caernarfon Town	1121	0
6	2023-04-07	19.05%	Newtown	1205	2	@ Bala Town	1316	1
7	2022-11-19	19.76%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1110	1	Bala Town	1349	0
8	2022-12-26	22.66%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1195	3	@ Penybont	1268	1
9	2022-11-05	24.30%	Haverfordwest County	1104	1	@ Flint Town United	1161	0
10	2022-08-19	25.17%	Flint Town United	1185	2	@ Newtown	1235	0
11	2022-10-22	25.66%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1145	1	@ Newtown	1190	0
12	2022-08-13	25.88%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1161	2	Connah's Quay Nomads	1340	0
13	2022-08-14	26.87%	@ Penybont	1146	2	Bala Town	1317	0
14	2022-11-05	27.91%	Penybont	1230	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1256	0
15	2023-04-15	28.17%	Pontypridd United	1081	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1105	1
16	2023-04-15	28.52%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1208	2	@ Newtown	1229	1
17	2022-12-02	29.67%	Newtown	1206	3	@ Caernarfon Town	1218	2
18	2022-12-02	30.17%	@ Haverfordwest County	1135	2	Penybont	1278	1
19	2022-09-17	30.29%	Penybont	1192	3	@ Newtown	1198	2
20	2023-04-19	31.11%	Caernarfon Town	1084	3	@ Flint Town United	1084	2
21	2022-09-03	31.56%	Newtown	1179	3	@ Haverfordwest County	1176	2
22	2023-01-21	31.92%	@ Aberystwyth Town	989	2	Caernarfon Town	1118	1
23	2022-10-01	33.00%	@ Pontypridd United	1085	3	Caernarfon Town	1206	1
24	2022-10-28	33.01%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1060	2	Flint Town United	1180	1
25	2023-02-25	33.07%	@ Newtown	1235	3	Bala Town	1356	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-09-17	75.98	The New Saints	7	1424	53.84%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1254	27.02%	19.14%
2	2022-08-20	64.74	Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1204	38.63%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1149	42.03%	19.34%
3	2022-10-15	60.62	The New Saints	5	1516	50.66%	@ Bala Town	0	1373	30.12%	19.23%
4	2022-08-27	54.92	@ Caernarfon Town	5	1183	37.72%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1269	42.95%	19.33%
5	2022-10-29	52.30	Caernarfon Town	3	1204	35.84%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1168	44.84%	19.32%
6	2023-02-24	48.56	Aberystwyth Town	7	968	57.16%	@ Airbus UK	1	770	23.83%	19.01%
7	2022-11-19	45.59	Newtown	4	1161	34.09%	@ Flint Town United	1	1138	46.61%	19.30%
8	2022-10-29	45.31	Pontypridd United	4	1071	53.50%	@ Airbus UK	0	904	27.35%	19.15%
9	2022-10-14	45.17	Newtown	4	1145	34.59%	@ Pontypridd United	1	1118	46.10%	19.30%
10	2022-08-19	43.75	Flint Town United	2	1185	25.17%	@ Newtown	0	1235	55.76%	19.07%
11	2022-08-13	43.20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1161	25.88%	Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1340	55.02%	19.10%
12	2022-08-14	42.46	@ Penybont	2	1146	26.87%	Bala Town	0	1317	53.99%	19.13%
13	2022-11-05	41.68	Penybont	2	1230	27.91%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1256	52.92%	19.17%
14	2023-02-11	40.68	@ Flint Town United	5	1119	62.18%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1008	19.09%	18.73%
15	2022-12-26	40.04	Bala Town	5	1330	51.49%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1180	29.30%	19.21%
16	2022-12-26	39.58	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1195	22.66%	@ Penybont	1	1268	58.39%	18.95%
17	2022-11-06	37.36	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1382	64.02%	@ Pontypridd United	0	1116	17.39%	18.59%
18	2023-04-01	37.26	Haverfordwest County	2	1135	34.04%	@ Flint Town United	0	1113	46.66%	19.30%
19	2023-01-28	36.66	@ Penybont	3	1288	51.62%	Newtown	0	1272	29.18%	19.20%
20	2022-09-27	33.23	Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1305	39.97%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1240	40.69%	19.34%
21	2022-10-01	32.90	@ Pontypridd United	3	1085	33.00%	Caernarfon Town	1	1206	47.72%	19.28%
22	2023-01-21	29.92	@ Flint Town United	4	1089	52.75%	Pontypridd United	1	1064	28.08%	19.17%
23	2023-02-11	29.83	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1099	45.05%	Haverfordwest County	0	1133	35.63%	19.32%
24	2022-10-14	29.63	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1173	45.34%	Flint Town United	0	1206	35.35%	19.31%
25	2022-08-26	28.87	@ Bala Town	3	1270	58.92%	Newtown	0	1192	22.16%	18.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-02-11	66.5	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1244	9.35%	The New Saints	2	1636	73.24%	17.41%
2	2022-09-23	65.5	@ Airbus UK	4	962	21.82%	Newtown	4	1179	59.28%	18.91%
3	2022-12-23	65.1	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1426	26.21%	The New Saints	1	1602	54.68%	19.11%
4	2022-11-18	64.7	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1419	69.97%	Caernarfon Town	3	1214	12.09%	17.95%
5	2023-02-18	63.1	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	968	37.80%	Pontypridd United	3	1053	42.87%	19.33%
6	2023-02-25	62.8	@ The New Saints	1	1612	74.21%	Penybont	1	1338	8.57%	17.22%
7	2023-03-25	60.9	@ Penybont	2	1361	53.59%	Bala Town	2	1329	27.26%	19.15%
8	2023-03-17	60.7	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	0	1402	22.87%	The New Saints	0	1609	58.17%	18.96%
9	2023-02-24	59.2	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1140	50.63%	Flint Town United	2	1132	30.15%	19.23%
10	2023-03-25	59.2	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1137	54.96%	Caernarfon Town	2	1094	25.94%	19.10%
11	2023-02-18	56.8	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1397	55.06%	Bala Town	1	1353	25.85%	19.10%
12	2023-03-11	56.6	@ Penybont	1	1345	41.87%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1402	38.80%	19.34%
13	2022-11-19	56.0	@ Penybont	0	1272	13.07%	The New Saints	0	1597	68.84%	18.09%
14	2023-01-03	55.3	@ Pontypridd United	2	1049	12.36%	Bala Town	1	1385	69.65%	17.99%
15	2023-01-31	55.3	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1106	13.43%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1426	68.42%	18.15%
16	2023-02-11	55.3	@ Newtown	1	1235	27.67%	Connah's Quay Nomads	1	1399	53.18%	19.16%
17	2022-10-29	55.0	@ Bala Town	1	1341	62.59%	Penybont	1	1226	18.71%	18.70%
18	2023-04-08	55.0	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1049	78.29%	Airbus UK	1	690	5.55%	16.16%
19	2022-12-02	54.9	Newtown	3	1206	29.67%	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1218	51.12%	19.22%
20	2022-09-17	54.6	@ Flint Town United	1	1217	37.11%	Bala Town	1	1308	43.56%	19.33%
21	2022-09-17	54.6	Penybont	3	1192	30.29%	@ Newtown	2	1198	50.48%	19.23%
22	2022-08-20	54.5	@ Bala Town	1	1274	62.29%	Haverfordwest County	1	1162	18.99%	18.72%
23	2023-02-25	54.5	@ Newtown	3	1235	33.07%	Bala Town	2	1356	47.65%	19.28%
24	2022-09-27	54.4	@ Penybont	1	1223	65.11%	Pontypridd United	1	1081	16.39%	18.49%
25	2023-04-15	54.4	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1193	65.86%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1042	15.72%	18.42%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-12-26	22.8	@ The New Saints	7	1599	88.90%	Airbus UK	0	845	0.69%	10.41%
2	2022-12-31	23.8	The New Saints	8	1601	86.26%	@ Airbus UK	0	843	1.40%	12.34%
3	2023-03-18	25.3	@ Haverfordwest County	4	1130	80.29%	Airbus UK	0	720	4.25%	15.46%
4	2023-03-31	25.4	@ Caernarfon Town	4	1097	79.84%	Airbus UK	0	698	4.53%	15.63%
5	2022-12-02	26.3	@ The New Saints	11	1590	83.46%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1080	2.52%	14.01%
6	2022-11-05	26.6	@ The New Saints	4	1591	82.46%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1115	3.02%	14.52%
7	2022-09-30	27.1	Bala Town	6	1349	73.39%	@ Airbus UK	0	954	9.23%	17.38%
8	2022-12-20	27.4	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	3	1418	77.87%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1068	5.83%	16.29%
9	2023-02-11	27.8	@ Pontypridd United	4	1035	71.93%	Airbus UK	0	800	10.43%	17.65%
10	2023-01-03	28.2	@ Penybont	2	1231	79.63%	Airbus UK	0	838	4.66%	15.71%
11	2023-01-07	28.2	@ Bala Town	3	1358	74.65%	Pontypridd United	0	1076	8.22%	17.12%
12	2022-10-22	28.4	@ The New Saints	2	1577	83.27%	Pontypridd United	0	1073	2.61%	14.11%
13	2022-11-04	28.6	@ Bala Town	3	1336	73.30%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1079	9.30%	17.40%
14	2023-03-25	28.6	Pontypridd United	3	1091	72.43%	@ Airbus UK	0	712	10.01%	17.56%
15	2023-01-10	29.1	The New Saints	8	1610	78.87%	@ Flint Town United	1	1102	5.16%	15.97%
16	2022-12-30	29.4	@ Bala Town	3	1370	71.63%	Caernarfon Town	0	1140	10.68%	17.70%
17	2022-12-26	29.6	@ Connah's Quay Nomads	2	1428	76.69%	Flint Town United	0	1106	6.68%	16.63%
18	2023-01-07	30.0	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1232	73.60%	@ Airbus UK	0	834	9.06%	17.34%
19	2022-10-25	30.2	@ The New Saints	3	1579	78.69%	Caernarfon Town	0	1211	5.28%	16.03%
20	2022-11-06	30.2	Connah's Quay Nomads	5	1382	64.02%	@ Pontypridd United	0	1116	17.39%	18.59%
21	2023-02-11	30.4	@ Flint Town United	5	1119	62.18%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1008	19.09%	18.73%
22	2022-10-15	30.6	Penybont	3	1220	66.10%	@ Airbus UK	0	930	15.50%	18.40%
23	2022-08-27	30.7	@ Haverfordwest County	3	1167	65.65%	Airbus UK	0	1018	15.91%	18.44%
24	2022-12-30	30.9	@ Newtown	6	1249	70.86%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1031	11.33%	17.82%
25	2023-02-17	30.9	Caernarfon Town	2	1129	70.43%	@ Airbus UK	0	781	11.69%	17.88%