2023-24 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

92 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Pontypridd United

9.40 points above expected

31 points · 21.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Connahs Quay Nomads

5.89 points below expected

59 points · 64.89 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	20	2	0	62	77	14	+63	54.84	+7.16
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	22	15	2	5	47	59	29	+30	43.78	+3.22
3	Bala Town	22	10	7	5	37	25	20	+5	33.19	+3.81
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	9	7	6	34	28	39	-11	26.22	+7.78
5	Newtown	22	10	3	9	33	35	31	+4	31.86	+1.14
6	Caernarfon Town	22	9	4	9	31	40	41	-1	26.29	+4.71
7	Haverfordwest County	22	7	7	8	28	29	33	-4	27.37	+0.63
8	Penybont	22	8	4	10	28	28	32	-4	31.27	-3.27
9	Barry Town United	22	6	5	11	23	27	41	-14	21.44	+1.56
10	Pontypridd United	22	5	4	13	19	13	31	-18	12.73	+6.27
11	Aberystwyth Town	22	4	3	15	15	18	46	-28	18.36	-3.36
12	Colwyn Bay	22	4	2	16	14	27	49	-22	23.09	-9.09

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	30	2	0	92	117	18	+99	86.43	+5.57
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	32	18	5	9	59	70	43	+27	64.89	-5.89
3	Bala Town	32	13	12	7	51	38	31	+7	49.62	+1.38
4	Newtown	32	13	5	14	44	49	46	+3	43.30	+0.70
5	Caernarfon Town	32	11	8	13	41	52	70	-18	39.69	+1.31
6	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	10	9	13	39	35	63	-28	41.04	-2.04

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Penybont	32	14	7	11	49	46	37	+9	47.62	+1.38
2	Haverfordwest County	32	11	10	11	43	39	40	-1	39.77	+3.23
3	Barry Town United	32	7	11	14	32	36	54	-18	36.16	-4.16
4	Pontypridd United	32	8	7	17	31	23	41	-18	21.60	+9.40
5	Aberystwyth Town	32	7	6	19	27	27	57	-30	24.84	+2.16
6	Colwyn Bay	32	7	4	21	25	34	66	-32	25.27	-0.27

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Pontypridd United	31	21.60	+9.40
2	The New Saints	92	86.43	+5.57
3	Haverfordwest County	43	39.77	+3.23
4	Aberystwyth Town	27	24.84	+2.16
5	Penybont	49	47.62	+1.38

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Connahs Quay Nomads	59	64.89	-5.89
2	Barry Town United	32	36.16	-4.16
3	Cardiff Metropolitan	39	41.04	-2.04
4	Colwyn Bay	25	25.27	-0.27
5	Newtown	44	43.30	+0.70

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	26	Sep 16 – Apr 21	1 in 882
2	Newtown	7	Sep 1 – Oct 7	1 in 352
3	Aberystwyth Town	2	Oct 27 – Nov 4	1 in 32
4	Connahs Quay Nomads	7	Aug 29 – Sep 30	1 in 26
5	Colwyn Bay	2	Sep 9 – Sep 15	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Newtown	8	Dec 26 – Mar 1	1 in 333
2	Colwyn Bay	7	Nov 29 – Feb 3	1 in 127
3	Penybont	4	Sep 30 – Oct 27	1 in 123
4	Bala Town	3	Sep 23 – Sep 30	1 in 83
5	Connahs Quay Nomads	3	Mar 1 – Mar 15	1 in 38

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	7	Aug 12 – Sep 16	1 in 45
2	Barry Town United	6	Feb 10 – Mar 29	1 in 40
3	Pontypridd United	6	Jan 13 – Mar 16	1 in 35
4	Haverfordwest County	5	Oct 28 – Dec 16	1 in 28
5	Newtown	7	Sep 1 – Oct 7	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haverfordwest County	7	Dec 30 – Mar 8	1 in 92
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	10	Dec 26 – Mar 16	1 in 50
3	Barry Town United	8	Feb 3 – Apr 5	1 in 30
4	Bala Town	5	Sep 13 – Sep 30	1 in 26
5	Penybont	5	Nov 19 – Dec 16	1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1585	92	+18	15	12.6	+2.4
Connahs Quay Nomads	1298	59	-8	5	8.5	-3.5
Bala Town	1212	51	+1	6	6.9	-0.9
Penybont	1217	49	+43	13	10.0	+3.0
Newtown	1151	44	+47	8	4.9	+3.1
Haverfordwest County	1111	43	+24	12	8.2	+3.8
Caernarfon Town	1056	41	-31	4	4.5	-0.5
Cardiff Metropolitan	1071	39	-26	3	4.5	-1.5
Barry Town United	1017	32	-7	5	6.4	-1.4
Pontypridd United	997	31	-60	1	7.4	-6.4
Aberystwyth Town	966	27	+21	7	5.0	+2.0
Colwyn Bay	956	25	-11	6	5.1	+0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BTU	CT	CM	CB	CQN	HC	NEW	PEN	PU	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	1-0-1 1.44	1-1-2 4.39	0-0-2 2.05	0-0-2 1.69	2-0-2 4.94	0-1-1 0.92	1-1-2 3.49	0-1-1 1.72	1-1-2 2.36	1-1-2 4.55	0-0-2 0.47
Bala Town	1-0-1 4.14	—	1-0-1 3.87	0-4-0 7.34	1-2-1 6.46	2-0-0 3.77	2-2-0 3.62	2-0-0 3.34	2-1-1 6.19	2-0-0 2.36	0-2-0 3.82	0-1-3 1.77
Barry Town United	2-1-1 6.67	1-0-1 1.69	—	1-0-1 2.30	0-1-1 1.81	1-2-1 6.02	0-0-2 1.08	0-2-2 4.32	1-0-1 1.75	0-3-1 3.11	1-1-2 5.34	0-1-1 0.57
Caernarfon Town	2-0-0 3.49	0-4-0 3.75	1-0-1 3.23	—	1-2-1 5.01	2-0-0 2.86	1-1-2 2.61	0-1-1 2.60	2-0-2 4.95	0-0-2 1.86	2-0-0 3.20	0-0-4 1.19
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-0-0 3.87	1-2-1 4.60	1-1-0 3.74	1-2-1 6.04	—	1-1-0 3.53	1-0-3 2.88	0-2-0 3.20	1-0-3 5.45	0-1-1 2.37	2-0-0 3.41	0-0-4 1.35
Colwyn Bay	2-0-2 6.12	0-0-2 1.78	1-2-1 5.04	0-0-2 2.68	0-1-1 2.01	—	0-0-2 1.04	0-1-3 4.04	0-0-2 1.87	2-0-2 2.82	2-0-2 4.89	0-0-2 0.57
Connahs Quay Nomads	1-1-0 4.74	0-2-2 7.48	2-0-0 4.55	2-1-1 8.58	3-0-1 8.28	2-0-0 4.60	—	1-0-1 4.40	3-1-0 8.12	2-0-0 3.63	2-0-0 4.73	0-0-4 2.70
Haverfordwest County	2-1-1 7.62	0-0-2 2.19	2-2-0 6.75	1-1-0 2.93	0-2-0 2.33	3-1-0 7.05	1-0-1 1.20	—	0-1-1 2.38	1-0-3 3.77	1-2-1 6.41	0-0-2 0.70
Newtown	1-1-0 3.84	1-1-2 4.88	1-0-1 3.80	2-0-2 6.11	3-0-1 5.61	2-0-0 3.68	0-1-3 3.02	1-1-0 3.16	—	0-1-1 2.17	2-0-0 3.79	0-0-4 1.39
Penybont	2-1-1 8.86	0-0-2 3.17	1-3-0 8.03	2-0-0 3.69	1-1-0 3.17	2-0-2 8.34	0-0-2 1.92	3-0-1 7.33	1-1-0 3.37	—	2-1-1 8.05	0-0-2 1.02
Pontypridd United	2-1-1 6.51	0-2-0 1.74	2-1-1 5.72	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 2.12	2-0-2 6.17	0-0-2 0.93	1-2-1 4.65	0-0-2 1.77	1-1-2 3.09	—	0-0-2 0.63
The New Saints	2-0-0 5.30	3-1-0 9.55	1-1-0 5.17	4-0-0 10.28	4-0-0 10.09	2-0-0 5.17	4-0-0 8.49	2-0-0 5.01	4-0-0 10.03	2-0-0 4.62	2-0-0 5.10	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+6.7
Allowed	0.56	-8.8
Differential	0.95	+4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.29%	9.38%	3.91%	3.39%	2.86%	1.82%	28.65%
1	9.38%	11.46%	5.99%	3.65%	0.78%	2.34%	33.59%
2	3.91%	5.99%	3.65%	2.34%	1.82%	0.52%	18.23%
3	3.39%	3.65%	2.34%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	2.86%	0.78%	1.82%	—	—	—	5.47%
5+	1.82%	2.34%	0.52%	—	—	—	4.69%
Total	28.65%	33.59%	18.23%	9.38%	5.47%	4.69%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.47	+0.00
SD	1.50	1.50	2.32
CV	1.02	1.02	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
1	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	9.38%	—	18.75%
3	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	28.12%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.84	1.78	-0.94
SD	0.85	1.58	1.83
CV	1.00	0.89	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	31.25%
1	12.50%	18.75%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	37.50%
2	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	—	—	9.38%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	43.75%	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	0.97	+0.22
SD	1.18	0.97	1.31
CV	0.99	1.00	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	37.50%
1	3.12%	18.75%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	40.62%	28.12%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	1.69	-0.56
SD	1.18	1.57	2.03
CV	1.05	0.93	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%	3.12%	12.50%
1	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	9.38%	40.62%
2	—	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	31.25%
3	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	15.62%	34.38%	18.75%	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	2.19	-0.56
SD	1.18	2.05	2.72
CV	0.73	0.94	—
Max	5	8	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	34.38%
1	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	6.25%	34.38%
2	3.12%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	—	21.88%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.88%	28.12%	21.88%	9.38%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	1.97	-0.88
SD	1.06	1.89	2.41
CV	0.97	0.96	—
Max	4	8	+2
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	28.12%
1	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	3.12%	—	3.12%	43.75%
2	—	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	21.88%	12.50%	12.50%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	2.06	-1.00
SD	0.88	1.66	1.95
CV	0.83	0.81	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	25.00%
2	—	9.38%	—	—	—	3.12%	12.50%
3	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	21.88%
4	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
5+	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	28.12%	40.62%	18.75%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.19	1.34	+0.84
SD	1.79	1.45	2.59
CV	0.82	1.08	—
Max	7	6	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
1	6.25%	21.88%	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	34.38%
2	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	25.00%	46.88%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.25	-0.03
SD	1.18	1.19	1.84
CV	0.97	0.95	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
1	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	9.38%	—	3.12%	43.75%
2	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	31.25%	25.00%	21.88%	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.44	+0.09
SD	1.41	1.34	2.19
CV	0.92	0.93	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
1	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
3	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	37.50%	28.12%	21.88%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.16	+0.28
SD	1.32	1.19	1.84
CV	0.92	1.03	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	56.25%
1	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	28.12%
2	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
3	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	21.88%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.72	1.28	-0.56
SD	1.05	1.28	1.85
CV	1.47	1.00	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
1	15.62%	—	—	—	—	—	15.62%
2	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
3	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
4	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
5+	9.38%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	34.38%
Total	53.12%	37.50%	9.38%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.66	0.56	+3.09
SD	2.15	0.67	1.99
CV	0.59	1.19	—
Max	8	2	+8
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1585	92	54.84	+37.16	98.0%	42	46	52	55	58	61	64
Connahs Quay Nomads	1298	59	43.78	+15.22	73.0%	27	34	40	44	48	52	56
Penybont	1217	49	31.27	+17.73	6.0%	13	22	28	31	35	40	45
Bala Town	1212	51	33.19	+17.81	78.0%	17	23	30	33	37	42	44
Newtown	1151	44	31.86	+12.14	61.0%	20	23	28	32	35	40	47
Haverfordwest County	1111	43	27.37	+15.63	58.0%	16	19	24	27	31	35	40
Cardiff Metropolitan	1071	39	26.22	+12.78	82.0%	7	17	22	26	30	36	38
Caernarfon Town	1056	41	26.29	+14.71	79.0%	13	16	22	26	29	39	43
Barry Town United	1017	32	21.44	+10.56	61.0%	7	12	17	22	25	30	36
Pontypridd United	997	31	12.73	+18.27	35.0%	1	5	8	12	16	22	25
Aberystwyth Town	966	27	18.36	+8.64	34.0%	5	9	14	18	23	28	33
Colwyn Bay	956	25	23.09	+1.91	6.0%	9	14	20	23	27	32	39

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.73%

Slight Edge

41.67%22.40%35.94%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 19.93 Elo pts.

146 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.27 goals

Neutral

-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.1

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

96%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

1.03/gm

Runaway

00.341.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.41 * Some Luck: 4.41 to 6.61 * Lucky: 6.61 to 8.81 * Wild Swing: 8.81 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 * Close: 1.09 to 1.64 * Off: 1.64 to 2.18 * Way Off: 2.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.10 points

Some Luck

05.5114

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

01.373

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

The New Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.00%

Penybont

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 163.16

2.39

Wide Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

70%

Slight Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

97%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Frequent

0%48%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.54

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.92

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.83

Near-Lock

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Chalky

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.55

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.19

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.102

Well Within Noise

00.1220.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	96.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	4.00%	74.00%	12.00%	7.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	7.00%	35.00%	15.00%	19.00%	12.00%	5.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Newtown	—	6.00%	19.00%	20.00%	18.00%	14.00%	7.00%	10.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Caernarfon Town	—	2.00%	10.00%	7.00%	12.00%	10.00%	12.00%	12.00%	18.00%	13.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	16.00%	17.00%	19.00%	12.00%	6.00%	7.00%	1.00%
Penybont	—	6.00%	11.00%	24.00%	22.00%	15.00%	6.00%	10.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	4.00%	17.00%	10.00%	11.00%	20.00%	12.00%	14.00%	9.00%	3.00%	—
Barry Town United	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	14.00%	9.00%	21.00%	15.00%	15.00%	14.00%
Pontypridd United	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	1.00%	2.00%	12.00%	22.00%	61.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	6.00%	6.00%	11.00%	20.00%	32.00%	19.00%
Colwyn Bay	—	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	19.00%	14.00%	20.00%	14.00%	4.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	99.97%	0.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	0.03%	98.72%	1.23%	0.02%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	1.17%	73.86%	18.09%	5.66%	1.22%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Newtown	—	0.06%	14.26%	41.12%	28.61%	15.95%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	—	—	4.27%	17.06%	31.57%	47.10%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	0.02%	6.38%	23.71%	34.16%	35.73%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	—	—	—	—	—	—	84.42%	13.09%	2.40%	0.09%	—	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.03%	58.35%	26.67%	2.58%	0.35%	0.02%
Barry Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.50%	26.90%	57.95%	9.80%	1.64%	0.21%
Pontypridd United	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.14%	1.70%	14.77%	27.83%	55.55%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.03%	0.70%	5.29%	35.49%	36.24%	22.25%
Colwyn Bay	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.82%	5.99%	37.27%	33.94%	21.97%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Haverfordwest County	99.00%	1.00%
Caernarfon Town	97.00%	3.00%
Newtown	97.00%	3.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	96.00%	4.00%
Colwyn Bay	77.00%	23.00%
Barry Town United	74.00%	26.00%
Aberystwyth Town	37.00%	63.00%
Pontypridd United	23.00%	77.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Newtown	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Haverfordwest County	99.63%	0.37%
Barry Town United	98.15%	1.85%
Colwyn Bay	44.09%	55.91%
Aberystwyth Town	41.51%	58.49%
Pontypridd United	16.62%	83.38%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2023-08-11	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 6-2	37.9	1451	1280	61.84%	21.13%	17.02%	+1.31	+10.4	3
2023-08-11	@ The New Saints	L 2-6	37.9	1280	1451	17.02%	21.13%	61.84%	-1.31	-10.4	0
2023-08-11	Pontypridd United	D 0-0	49.1	1102	1043	48.95%	23.28%	27.76%	+0.54	-1.1	1
2023-08-11	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	49.1	1043	1102	27.76%	23.28%	48.95%	-0.54	+1.1	1
2023-08-12	Barry Town United	W 1-0	36.7	1156	1036	56.33%	22.31%	21.36%	+0.96	+5.1	3
2023-08-12	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	36.7	1036	1156	21.36%	22.31%	56.33%	-0.96	-5.1	0
2023-08-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	37.9	1005	1131	24.65%	22.90%	52.46%	-0.73	-5.8	0
2023-08-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	37.9	1131	1005	52.46%	22.90%	24.65%	+0.73	+5.8	3
2023-08-12	Penybont	L 1-3	40.5	1107	1233	24.74%	22.91%	52.35%	-0.72	-9.4	0
2023-08-12	@ Newtown	W 3-1	40.5	1233	1107	52.35%	22.91%	24.74%	+0.72	+9.5	3
2023-08-13	Caernarfon Town	L 0-4	38.9	1068	1027	46.68%	23.47%	29.86%	+0.42	-34.6	0
2023-08-13	@ Colwyn Bay	W 4-0	38.9	1027	1068	29.86%	23.47%	46.68%	-0.42	+34.6	3
2023-08-18	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	26.7	1269	999	70.79%	18.26%	10.95%	+1.98	+9.3	3
2023-08-18	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-4	26.7	999	1269	10.95%	18.26%	70.79%	-1.98	-9.3	0
2023-08-18	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	33.5	1242	1101	58.70%	21.85%	19.45%	+1.10	+8.8	6
2023-08-18	@ Penybont	L 0-2	33.5	1101	1242	19.45%	21.85%	58.70%	-1.10	-8.8	1
2023-08-18	Newtown	W 2-1	47.6	1061	1097	35.84%	23.74%	40.42%	-0.11	+8.1	6
2023-08-18	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	47.6	1097	1061	40.42%	23.74%	35.84%	+0.11	-8.1	0
2023-08-19	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.0	1137	1161	37.51%	23.76%	38.73%	-0.03	+0.1	4
2023-08-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.0	1161	1137	38.73%	23.76%	37.51%	+0.03	-0.1	4
2023-08-19	Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	52.9	1031	1034	40.62%	23.74%	35.64%	+0.12	-0.2	1
2023-08-19	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.9	1034	1031	35.64%	23.74%	40.62%	-0.12	+0.2	1
2023-08-19	The New Saints	L 0-1	30.5	1044	1462	6.73%	14.74%	78.53%	-2.72	-1.5	1
2023-08-19	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	30.5	1462	1044	78.53%	14.74%	6.73%	+2.72	+1.5	6
2023-08-25	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	46.2	1161	1279	25.68%	23.04%	51.28%	-0.67	+10.5	7
2023-08-25	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	46.2	1279	1161	51.28%	23.04%	25.68%	+0.67	-10.5	3
2023-08-25	Penybont	D 0-0	49.8	1042	1251	17.24%	21.20%	61.56%	-1.29	+2.3	2
2023-08-25	@ Pontypridd United	D 0-0	49.8	1251	1042	61.56%	21.20%	17.24%	+1.29	-2.3	7
2023-08-26	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.3	1089	989	53.96%	22.69%	23.35%	+0.82	-1.6	1
2023-08-26	@ Newtown	D 0-0	49.3	989	1089	23.35%	22.69%	53.96%	-0.82	+1.6	1
2023-08-26	Barry Town United	D 2-2	61.6	1463	1031	81.77%	13.00%	5.23%	+3.09	-2.7	7
2023-08-26	@ The New Saints	D 2-2	61.6	1031	1463	5.23%	13.00%	81.77%	-3.09	+2.7	2
2023-08-26	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	52.9	1092	1069	44.11%	23.62%	32.27%	+0.29	-0.5	2
2023-08-26	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	52.9	1069	1092	32.27%	23.62%	44.11%	-0.29	+0.5	7
2023-08-26	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	37.3	1137	1034	54.42%	22.62%	22.96%	+0.84	+5.4	7
2023-08-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	37.3	1034	1137	22.96%	22.62%	54.42%	-0.84	-5.4	1
2023-08-29	Bala Town	D 1-1	53.1	1070	1172	27.40%	23.25%	49.35%	-0.56	+1.0	8
2023-08-29	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	53.1	1172	1070	49.35%	23.25%	27.40%	+0.56	-1.0	8
2023-08-29	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.5	1248	1143	54.70%	22.58%	22.73%	+0.86	-1.7	8
2023-08-29	@ Penybont	D 0-0	49.5	1143	1248	22.73%	22.58%	54.70%	-0.86	+1.6	8
2023-08-29	Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	58.0	1034	1091	32.91%	23.65%	43.44%	-0.26	+0.3	3
2023-08-29	@ Barry Town United	D 2-2	58.0	1091	1034	43.44%	23.65%	32.91%	+0.26	-0.3	3
2023-08-29	Newtown	W 3-1	37.4	1268	1087	62.76%	20.90%	16.34%	+1.37	+6.4	6
2023-08-29	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	37.4	1087	1268	16.34%	20.90%	62.76%	-1.37	-6.4	1
2023-08-29	Pontypridd United	L 0-1	40.7	991	1045	33.45%	23.67%	42.88%	-0.23	-7.4	1
2023-08-29	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	40.7	1045	991	42.88%	23.67%	33.45%	+0.23	+7.4	5
2023-08-29	The New Saints	L 0-1	30.2	1028	1460	6.30%	14.28%	79.41%	-2.82	-1.4	1
2023-08-29	@ Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	30.2	1460	1028	79.41%	14.28%	6.30%	+2.82	+1.4	10
2023-09-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 6-0	23.2	1462	984	84.22%	11.58%	4.20%	+3.40	+4.6	13
2023-09-01	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	23.2	984	1462	4.20%	11.58%	84.22%	-3.40	-4.6	1
2023-09-01	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	48.7	1081	1144	32.16%	23.62%	44.22%	-0.30	+8.7	4
2023-09-01	@ Newtown	L 1-2	48.7	1144	1081	44.22%	23.62%	32.16%	+0.30	-8.7	8
2023-09-01	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-4	29.7	1071	1275	17.60%	21.32%	61.08%	-1.26	-15.2	8
2023-09-01	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	29.7	1275	1071	61.08%	21.32%	17.60%	+1.26	+15.2	9
2023-09-02	Barry Town United	W 1-0	40.6	1052	1034	43.46%	23.65%	32.89%	+0.26	+7.3	8
2023-09-02	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-1	40.6	1034	1052	32.89%	23.65%	43.46%	-0.26	-7.3	3
2023-09-02	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	45.0	1027	1091	32.07%	23.61%	44.32%	-0.30	-6.8	1
2023-09-02	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	45.0	1091	1027	44.32%	23.61%	32.07%	+0.30	+6.8	6
2023-09-02	Penybont	W 2-1	49.4	1171	1247	30.54%	23.52%	45.95%	-0.38	+9.0	11
2023-09-02	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	49.4	1247	1171	45.95%	23.52%	30.54%	+0.38	-9.0	8
2023-09-08	Pontypridd United	W 2-0	35.6	1136	1059	51.13%	23.06%	25.81%	+0.66	+11.3	11
2023-09-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	35.6	1059	1136	25.81%	23.06%	51.13%	-0.66	-11.3	8
2023-09-09	Caernarfon Town	L 2-4	46.3	979	1056	30.46%	23.51%	46.02%	-0.39	-10.1	1
2023-09-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	46.3	1056	979	46.02%	23.51%	30.46%	+0.39	+10.1	11
2023-09-09	Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	49.5	1238	1020	66.25%	19.87%	13.87%	+1.62	-13.1	8
2023-09-09	@ Penybont	W 1-0	49.5	1020	1238	13.87%	19.87%	66.25%	-1.62	+13.1	4
2023-09-09	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-4	33.8	1027	1290	13.53%	19.71%	66.75%	-1.66	-7.5	3
2023-09-09	@ Barry Town United	W 4-1	33.8	1290	1027	66.75%	19.71%	13.53%	+1.66	+7.5	12
2023-09-09	Newtown	L 0-4	37.7	1098	1090	42.10%	23.70%	34.20%	+0.19	-31.8	6
2023-09-09	@ Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	37.7	1090	1098	34.20%	23.70%	42.10%	-0.19	+31.8	7
2023-09-13	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.7	1180	1466	12.18%	19.00%	68.82%	-1.82	+3.1	12
2023-09-13	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	51.7	1466	1180	68.82%	19.00%	12.18%	+1.82	-3.1	14
2023-09-15	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	41.1	1033	969	49.64%	23.22%	27.14%	+0.58	+10.2	7
2023-09-15	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-3	41.1	969	1033	27.14%	23.22%	49.64%	-0.58	-10.2	1
2023-09-16	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.3	1048	1183	23.82%	22.77%	53.41%	-0.78	+1.5	9
2023-09-16	@ Pontypridd United	D 0-0	49.3	1183	1048	53.41%	22.77%	23.82%	+0.78	-1.5	13
2023-09-16	Barry Town United	W 2-0	34.7	1122	1019	54.29%	22.64%	23.07%	+0.84	+10.3	10
2023-09-16	@ Newtown	L 0-2	34.7	1019	1122	23.07%	22.64%	54.29%	-0.84	-10.3	3
2023-09-16	Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	45.1	1225	1066	60.57%	21.44%	17.99%	+1.22	+3.9	11
2023-09-16	@ Penybont	L 2-3	45.1	1066	1225	17.99%	21.44%	60.57%	-1.22	-3.9	11
2023-09-16	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-0	30.3	1297	1147	59.66%	21.65%	18.69%	+1.16	+16.1	15
2023-09-16	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-4	30.3	1147	1297	18.69%	21.65%	59.66%	-1.16	-16.1	11
2023-09-16	Haverfordwest County	W 5-1	28.6	1463	1066	79.73%	14.11%	6.15%	+2.85	+4.1	17
2023-09-16	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	28.6	1066	1463	6.15%	14.11%	79.73%	-2.85	-4.1	6
2023-09-22	Penybont	L 1-2	38.2	959	1229	13.12%	19.51%	67.37%	-1.71	-3.0	1
2023-09-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	38.2	1229	959	67.37%	19.51%	13.12%	+1.71	+3.0	14
2023-09-22	The New Saints	L 1-5	31.0	1131	1467	9.74%	17.42%	72.84%	-2.16	-6.8	11
2023-09-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-1	31.0	1467	1131	72.84%	17.42%	9.74%	+2.16	+6.8	20
2023-09-23	Bala Town	W 3-1	50.0	1009	1181	20.22%	22.05%	57.73%	-1.04	+19.0	6
2023-09-23	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	50.0	1181	1009	57.73%	22.05%	20.22%	+1.04	-19.0	13
2023-09-23	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	36.5	1062	1313	14.25%	20.05%	65.70%	-1.58	-5.6	6
2023-09-23	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	36.5	1313	1062	65.70%	20.05%	14.25%	+1.58	+5.6	18
2023-09-23	Newtown	L 2-4	45.9	1044	1132	29.04%	23.40%	47.56%	-0.47	-9.7	7
2023-09-23	@ Colwyn Bay	W 4-2	45.9	1132	1044	47.56%	23.40%	29.04%	+0.47	+9.7	13
2023-09-23	Pontypridd United	W 1-0	40.8	1062	1050	42.68%	23.68%	33.64%	+0.22	+7.5	14
2023-09-23	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	40.8	1050	1062	33.64%	23.68%	42.68%	-0.22	-7.5	9
2023-09-26	Barry Town United	W 1-0	34.2	1232	1028	64.96%	20.27%	14.76%	+1.53	+3.6	17
2023-09-26	@ Penybont	L 0-1	34.2	1028	1232	14.76%	20.27%	64.96%	-1.53	-3.6	6
2023-09-26	Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	36.9	1319	1034	71.94%	17.79%	10.26%	+2.08	+2.3	21
2023-09-26	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	36.9	1034	1319	10.26%	17.79%	71.94%	-2.08	-2.3	7
2023-09-26	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.1	1124	1056	50.06%	23.18%	26.77%	+0.60	-1.0	12
2023-09-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	53.1	1056	1124	26.77%	23.18%	50.06%	-0.60	+1.1	7
2023-09-26	Newtown	L 0-1	38.9	1042	1141	27.71%	23.28%	49.01%	-0.54	-6.4	9
2023-09-26	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	38.9	1141	1042	49.01%	23.28%	27.71%	+0.54	+6.4	16
2023-09-26	The New Saints	L 1-3	33.3	1069	1474	7.14%	15.17%	77.69%	-2.63	-2.6	14
2023-09-26	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	33.3	1474	1069	77.69%	15.17%	7.14%	+2.63	+2.6	23
2023-09-27	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	49.2	1162	956	65.25%	20.19%	14.56%	+1.55	-12.9	13
2023-09-27	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	49.2	956	1162	14.56%	20.19%	65.25%	-1.55	+12.9	4
2023-09-30	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	33.1	1057	969	52.67%	22.87%	24.46%	+0.74	+15.7	10
2023-09-30	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	33.1	969	1057	24.46%	22.87%	52.67%	-0.74	-15.7	4
2023-09-30	Bala Town	W 1-0	41.5	1148	1149	40.74%	23.73%	35.53%	+0.13	+7.8	19
2023-09-30	@ Newtown	L 0-1	41.5	1149	1148	35.53%	23.73%	40.74%	-0.13	-7.8	13
2023-09-30	Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	36.5	1024	1067	34.98%	23.72%	41.30%	-0.15	-21.1	6
2023-09-30	@ Barry Town United	W 3-0	36.5	1067	1024	41.30%	23.72%	34.98%	+0.15	+21.1	17
2023-09-30	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	58.1	1032	1123	28.65%	23.37%	47.98%	-0.49	+0.6	8
2023-09-30	@ Colwyn Bay	D 2-2	58.1	1123	1032	47.98%	23.37%	28.65%	+0.49	-0.6	13
2023-09-30	Penybont	W 4-2	45.1	1321	1235	52.34%	22.91%	24.75%	+0.72	+8.5	24
2023-09-30	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-4	45.1	1235	1321	24.75%	22.91%	52.34%	-0.72	-8.5	17
2023-09-30	Pontypridd United	W 4-0	23.7	1477	1036	82.28%	12.71%	5.01%	+3.15	+3.9	26
2023-09-30	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	23.7	1036	1477	5.01%	12.71%	82.28%	-3.15	-3.9	9
2023-10-06	Barry Town United	W 2-1	41.5	1122	1003	56.23%	22.32%	21.45%	+0.95	+4.8	16
2023-10-06	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	41.5	1003	1122	21.45%	22.32%	56.23%	-0.95	-4.8	6
2023-10-06	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.2	953	1330	8.12%	16.10%	75.78%	-2.44	+3.3	5
2023-10-06	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	55.2	1330	953	75.78%	16.10%	8.12%	+2.44	-3.3	25
2023-10-07	Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	32.9	1156	1088	50.09%	23.17%	26.74%	+0.60	+22.1	22
2023-10-07	@ Newtown	L 0-4	32.9	1088	1156	26.74%	23.17%	50.09%	-0.60	-22.1	17
2023-10-07	Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	41.8	1142	1032	55.11%	22.51%	22.37%	+0.88	+5.0	16
2023-10-07	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	41.8	1032	1142	22.37%	22.51%	55.11%	-0.88	-5.0	8
2023-10-07	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	40.4	1032	1073	35.12%	23.73%	41.16%	-0.15	+16.5	12
2023-10-07	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-2	40.4	1073	1032	41.16%	23.73%	35.12%	+0.15	-16.4	10
2023-10-07	The New Saints	L 1-4	35.9	1227	1481	14.08%	19.97%	65.94%	-1.60	-7.8	17
2023-10-07	@ Penybont	W 4-1	35.9	1481	1227	65.94%	19.97%	14.08%	+1.60	+7.8	29
2023-10-17	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	32.4	1066	956	55.11%	22.51%	22.38%	+0.88	+14.5	20
2023-10-17	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	32.4	956	1066	22.38%	22.51%	55.11%	-0.88	-14.5	5
2023-10-17	Newtown	W 2-1	48.3	1127	1178	33.84%	23.69%	42.47%	-0.21	+8.4	19
2023-10-17	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	48.3	1178	1127	42.47%	23.69%	33.84%	+0.21	-8.4	22
2023-10-17	Penybont	W 3-2	56.9	1057	1219	21.14%	22.26%	56.60%	-0.97	+10.2	13
2023-10-17	@ Haverfordwest County	L 2-3	56.9	1219	1057	56.60%	22.26%	21.14%	+0.97	-10.2	17
2023-10-17	Pontypridd United	W 2-0	40.8	998	1048	33.95%	23.69%	42.36%	-0.20	+16.8	9
2023-10-17	@ Barry Town United	L 0-2	40.8	1048	998	42.36%	23.69%	33.95%	+0.20	-16.8	12
2023-10-18	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.1	1326	1147	62.67%	20.92%	16.41%	+1.36	-2.2	26
2023-10-18	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.1	1147	1326	16.41%	20.92%	62.67%	-1.36	+2.2	17
2023-10-21	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-1	42.0	1080	1136	33.19%	23.66%	43.15%	-0.24	+27.0	23
2023-10-21	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-5	42.0	1136	1080	43.15%	23.66%	33.19%	+0.24	-27.0	19
2023-10-21	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	28.2	1031	1324	11.85%	18.81%	69.33%	-1.86	-7.8	12
2023-10-21	@ Pontypridd United	W 3-0	28.2	1324	1031	69.33%	18.81%	11.85%	+1.86	+7.8	29
2023-10-21	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	35.4	1149	1067	51.84%	22.97%	25.19%	+0.70	+11.1	20
2023-10-21	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	35.4	1067	1149	25.19%	22.97%	51.84%	-0.70	-11.1	13
2023-10-21	The New Saints	L 2-6	30.0	1015	1489	5.20%	12.96%	81.85%	-3.10	-2.9	9
2023-10-21	@ Barry Town United	W 6-2	30.0	1489	1015	81.85%	12.96%	5.20%	+3.10	+2.9	32
2023-10-27	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-2	47.6	1209	942	70.50%	18.37%	11.13%	+1.96	-26.0	17
2023-10-27	@ Penybont	W 2-0	47.6	942	1209	11.13%	18.37%	70.50%	-1.96	+26.0	8
2023-10-27	Caernarfon Town	W 6-1	31.1	1332	1107	66.91%	19.66%	13.43%	+1.67	+11.8	32
2023-10-27	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-6	31.1	1107	1332	13.43%	19.66%	66.91%	-1.67	-11.8	23
2023-10-28	Bala Town	W 2-0	29.7	1491	1160	75.40%	16.28%	8.32%	+2.40	+3.6	35
2023-10-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	29.7	1160	1491	8.32%	16.28%	75.40%	-2.40	-3.6	20
2023-10-28	Barry Town United	L 0-1	43.6	1027	1012	43.03%	23.67%	33.31%	+0.24	-9.0	8
2023-10-28	@ Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	43.6	1012	1027	33.31%	23.67%	43.03%	-0.24	+9.0	12
2023-10-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	41.9	1024	1109	29.44%	23.44%	47.12%	-0.44	-11.0	12
2023-10-28	@ Pontypridd United	W 3-1	41.9	1109	1024	47.12%	23.44%	29.44%	+0.44	+11.0	22
2023-10-28	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.3	1169	1056	55.60%	22.43%	21.97%	+0.91	-1.6	23
2023-10-28	@ Newtown	D 1-1	53.3	1056	1169	21.97%	22.43%	55.60%	-0.91	+1.6	14
2023-10-31	Colwyn Bay	W 6-1	26.1	1495	1018	84.16%	11.62%	4.23%	+3.39	+3.2	38
2023-10-31	@ The New Saints	L 1-6	26.1	1018	1495	4.23%	11.62%	84.16%	-3.39	-3.2	8
2023-11-04	Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	45.1	1022	968	48.27%	23.34%	28.38%	+0.50	-9.9	12
2023-11-04	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	45.1	968	1022	28.38%	23.34%	48.27%	-0.50	+9.9	11
2023-11-04	Colwyn Bay	W 5-0	33.7	1057	1015	46.77%	23.46%	29.77%	+0.43	+29.8	17
2023-11-04	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-5	33.7	1015	1057	29.77%	23.46%	46.77%	-0.43	-29.8	8
2023-11-04	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 3-1	51.5	1120	1344	16.08%	20.80%	63.12%	-1.40	+20.5	25
2023-11-04	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	51.5	1344	1120	63.12%	20.80%	16.08%	+1.40	-20.5	32
2023-11-04	Penybont	L 2-4	45.9	1095	1183	29.15%	23.41%	47.44%	-0.46	-9.7	23
2023-11-04	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-2	45.9	1183	1095	47.44%	23.41%	29.15%	+0.46	+9.7	20
2023-11-04	Pontypridd United	D 0-0	49.6	1156	1013	58.93%	21.80%	19.26%	+1.12	-2.1	21
2023-11-04	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	49.6	1013	1156	19.26%	21.80%	58.93%	-1.12	+2.1	13
2023-11-04	The New Saints	L 0-2	30.7	1168	1498	10.01%	17.61%	72.38%	-2.12	-4.4	23
2023-11-04	@ Newtown	W 2-0	30.7	1498	1168	72.38%	17.61%	10.01%	+2.12	+4.5	41
2023-11-14	Newtown	L 0-1	35.9	978	1163	19.07%	21.75%	59.17%	-1.13	-4.6	11
2023-11-14	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	35.9	1163	978	59.17%	21.75%	19.07%	+1.13	+4.6	26
2023-11-17	Bala Town	L 2-3	45.6	973	1154	19.46%	21.86%	58.68%	-1.10	-4.2	11
2023-11-17	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-2	45.6	1154	973	58.68%	21.86%	19.46%	+1.10	+4.2	24
2023-11-19	Barry Town United	L 2-3	55.3	1086	1012	50.85%	23.09%	26.06%	+0.64	-9.3	23
2023-11-19	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	55.3	1012	1086	26.06%	23.09%	50.85%	-0.64	+9.3	15
2023-11-19	Colwyn Bay	L 0-3	39.5	1015	985	45.07%	23.57%	31.36%	+0.34	-25.7	13
2023-11-19	@ Pontypridd United	W 3-0	39.5	985	1015	31.36%	23.57%	45.07%	-0.34	+25.7	11
2023-11-19	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	54.7	1323	1087	67.90%	19.33%	12.78%	+1.75	-12.6	32
2023-11-19	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	54.7	1087	1323	12.78%	19.33%	67.90%	-1.75	+12.6	20
2023-11-19	Newtown	D 1-1	53.0	1192	1168	44.35%	23.61%	32.04%	+0.30	-0.5	21
2023-11-19	@ Penybont	D 1-1	53.0	1168	1192	32.04%	23.61%	44.35%	-0.30	+0.5	27
2023-11-25	Penybont	W 2-1	52.5	1011	1192	19.47%	21.86%	58.67%	-1.10	+11.1	14
2023-11-25	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-2	52.5	1192	1011	58.67%	21.86%	19.47%	+1.10	-11.1	21
2023-11-28	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	53.1	1158	1076	51.85%	22.97%	25.18%	+0.70	-1.2	25
2023-11-28	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.1	1076	1158	25.18%	22.97%	51.85%	-0.70	+1.2	24
2023-11-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	52.9	1100	1140	35.25%	23.73%	41.02%	-0.14	+0.2	21
2023-11-28	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	52.9	1140	1100	41.02%	23.73%	35.25%	+0.14	-0.2	26
2023-11-28	Penybont	D 1-1	53.3	1021	1181	21.37%	22.31%	56.32%	-0.96	+1.6	16
2023-11-28	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	53.3	1181	1021	56.32%	22.31%	21.37%	+0.96	-1.6	22
2023-11-28	Pontypridd United	W 3-1	37.3	1168	989	62.62%	20.93%	16.44%	+1.36	+6.5	30
2023-11-28	@ Newtown	L 1-3	37.3	989	1168	16.44%	20.93%	62.62%	-1.36	-6.5	13
2023-11-28	The New Saints	L 1-3	30.9	969	1503	3.89%	11.11%	85.00%	-3.51	-1.3	11
2023-11-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-1	30.9	1503	969	85.00%	11.11%	3.89%	+3.51	+1.3	44
2023-11-29	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-3	42.6	1022	1311	12.07%	18.94%	68.99%	-1.84	-2.6	14
2023-11-29	@ Colwyn Bay	W 3-2	42.6	1311	1022	68.99%	18.94%	12.07%	+1.84	+2.6	35
2023-12-02	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	41.5	1140	968	61.91%	21.12%	16.97%	+1.31	+6.0	29
2023-12-02	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-4	41.5	968	1140	16.97%	21.12%	61.91%	-1.31	-6.0	11
2023-12-02	Bala Town	L 0-2	41.4	1179	1157	44.01%	23.63%	32.37%	+0.29	-17.4	22
2023-12-02	@ Penybont	W 2-0	41.4	1157	1179	32.37%	23.63%	44.01%	-0.29	+17.4	28
2023-12-02	Barry Town United	W 7-0	27.0	1313	1022	72.38%	17.61%	10.01%	+2.12	+14.3	38
2023-12-02	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-7	27.0	1022	1313	10.01%	17.61%	72.38%	-2.12	-14.3	16
2023-12-02	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	43.8	983	1078	28.24%	23.33%	48.43%	-0.51	-6.1	13
2023-12-02	@ Pontypridd United	W 2-1	43.8	1078	983	48.43%	23.33%	28.24%	+0.51	+6.1	27
2023-12-02	Colwyn Bay	W 4-2	42.1	1175	1019	60.20%	21.53%	18.27%	+1.20	+6.4	33
2023-12-02	@ Newtown	L 2-4	42.1	1019	1175	18.27%	21.53%	60.20%	-1.20	-6.4	14
2023-12-16	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	44.3	1175	1146	44.94%	23.58%	31.48%	+0.33	-9.4	28
2023-12-16	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	44.3	1146	1175	31.48%	23.58%	44.94%	-0.33	+9.4	32
2023-12-16	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	42.3	1084	1100	38.63%	23.76%	37.61%	+0.02	-8.3	27
2023-12-16	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	42.3	1100	1084	37.61%	23.76%	38.63%	-0.02	+8.3	24
2023-12-16	Penybont	W 3-0	27.5	1504	1162	76.16%	15.92%	7.92%	+2.48	+5.0	47
2023-12-16	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	27.5	1162	1504	7.92%	15.92%	76.16%	-2.48	-5.0	22
2023-12-16	Pontypridd United	W 3-1	33.1	1327	977	76.75%	15.64%	7.62%	+2.53	+2.8	41
2023-12-16	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	33.1	977	1327	7.62%	15.64%	76.75%	-2.53	-2.8	13
2023-12-23	The New Saints	L 0-1	31.4	1108	1509	7.28%	15.31%	77.41%	-2.60	-1.6	24
2023-12-23	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	31.4	1509	1108	77.41%	15.31%	7.28%	+2.60	+1.7	50
2023-12-26	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	38.1	974	962	42.65%	23.68%	33.67%	+0.22	+14.1	16
2023-12-26	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-2	38.1	962	974	33.67%	23.68%	42.65%	-0.22	-14.1	11
2023-12-26	Bala Town	L 2-3	46.5	1013	1165	22.09%	22.45%	55.46%	-0.90	-4.7	14
2023-12-26	@ Colwyn Bay	W 3-2	46.5	1165	1013	55.46%	22.45%	22.09%	+0.90	+4.7	31
2023-12-26	Barry Town United	W 2-0	34.8	1107	1008	53.83%	22.71%	23.46%	+0.81	+10.4	27
2023-12-26	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	34.8	1008	1107	23.46%	22.71%	53.83%	-0.81	-10.4	16
2023-12-26	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	34.6	1511	1075	81.96%	12.89%	5.15%	+3.11	+1.0	53
2023-12-26	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	34.6	1075	1511	5.15%	12.89%	81.96%	-3.11	-1.0	27
2023-12-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	42.3	1181	1330	22.40%	22.52%	55.08%	-0.88	-5.0	33
2023-12-26	@ Newtown	W 2-1	42.3	1330	1181	55.08%	22.52%	22.40%	+0.88	+5.0	44
2023-12-26	Penybont	L 0-3	38.3	1155	1157	40.74%	23.73%	35.52%	+0.13	-23.7	32
2023-12-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	38.3	1157	1155	35.52%	23.73%	40.74%	-0.13	+23.7	25
2023-12-30	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	49.2	998	1131	23.94%	22.79%	53.27%	-0.78	+1.5	17
2023-12-30	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	49.2	1131	998	53.27%	22.79%	23.94%	+0.78	-1.5	33
2023-12-30	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.4	948	1117	20.48%	22.11%	57.42%	-1.02	+1.7	12
2023-12-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	53.4	1117	948	57.42%	22.11%	20.48%	+1.02	-1.7	28
2023-12-30	Newtown	W 2-1	46.5	1170	1176	40.04%	23.75%	36.21%	+0.09	+7.5	34
2023-12-30	@ Bala Town	L 1-2	46.5	1176	1170	36.21%	23.75%	40.04%	-0.09	-7.4	33
2023-12-31	Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	43.4	1074	1008	49.84%	23.20%	26.97%	+0.59	+5.9	30
2023-12-31	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	43.4	1008	1074	26.97%	23.20%	49.84%	-0.59	-5.9	14
2023-12-31	Pontypridd United	W 1-0	34.4	1180	988	63.92%	20.58%	15.50%	+1.45	+3.7	28
2023-12-31	@ Penybont	L 0-1	34.4	988	1180	15.50%	20.58%	63.92%	-1.45	-3.7	16
2023-12-31	The New Saints	L 0-4	35.2	1335	1512	19.86%	21.96%	58.18%	-1.07	-17.0	44
2023-12-31	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 4-0	35.2	1512	1335	58.18%	21.96%	19.86%	+1.07	+17.0	56
2024-01-05	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	43.5	949	1002	33.51%	23.68%	42.82%	-0.23	+9.0	15
2024-01-05	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	43.5	1002	949	42.82%	23.68%	33.51%	+0.23	-9.0	14
2024-01-06	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 8-0	26.5	1529	1130	79.83%	14.06%	6.11%	+2.86	+9.3	59
2024-01-06	@ The New Saints	L 0-8	26.5	1130	1529	6.11%	14.06%	79.83%	-2.86	-9.3	33
2024-01-06	Newtown	W 4-0	41.8	999	1169	20.47%	22.11%	57.42%	-1.02	+41.4	20
2024-01-06	@ Barry Town United	L 0-4	41.8	1169	999	57.42%	22.11%	20.47%	+1.02	-41.4	33
2024-01-13	Bala Town	L 2-3	50.0	1115	1177	32.34%	23.62%	44.03%	-0.29	-6.5	28
2024-01-13	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	50.0	1177	1115	44.03%	23.62%	32.34%	+0.29	+6.5	37
2024-01-13	Barry Town United	L 2-4	46.1	958	1041	29.75%	23.46%	46.79%	-0.43	-9.9	15
2024-01-13	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	46.1	1041	958	46.79%	23.46%	29.75%	+0.43	+9.9	23
2024-01-13	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	58.1	1121	1080	46.52%	23.48%	30.00%	+0.41	-0.5	34
2024-01-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	58.1	1080	1121	30.00%	23.48%	46.52%	-0.41	+0.6	31
2024-01-13	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	38.1	1184	1318	23.89%	22.78%	53.33%	-0.78	-5.6	28
2024-01-13	@ Penybont	W 1-0	38.1	1318	1184	53.33%	22.78%	23.89%	+0.78	+5.6	47
2024-01-13	Newtown	W 3-1	33.4	1538	1128	80.53%	13.68%	5.79%	+2.94	+2.1	62
2024-01-13	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	33.4	1128	1538	5.79%	13.68%	80.53%	-2.94	-2.1	33
2024-01-13	Pontypridd United	L 2-3	52.9	993	984	42.27%	23.69%	34.03%	+0.20	-8.0	14
2024-01-13	@ Colwyn Bay	W 3-2	52.9	984	993	34.03%	23.69%	42.27%	-0.20	+8.0	19

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-02-02	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.5	1324	1081	68.52%	19.11%	12.37%	+1.80	-2.7	1
2024-02-02	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.5	1081	1324	12.37%	19.11%	68.52%	-1.80	+2.7	1
2024-02-02	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	47.2	948	1109	21.30%	22.29%	56.40%	-0.96	+11.4	3
2024-02-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	47.2	1109	948	56.40%	22.29%	21.30%	+0.96	-11.4	0
2024-02-03	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	53.1	1184	1120	49.55%	23.23%	27.22%	+0.57	-1.0	1
2024-02-03	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.1	1120	1184	27.22%	23.23%	49.55%	-0.57	+1.0	1
2024-02-03	Penybont	L 1-2	40.4	985	1179	18.46%	21.58%	59.96%	-1.18	-4.2	0
2024-02-03	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	40.4	1179	985	59.96%	21.58%	18.46%	+1.18	+4.2	3
2024-02-03	Pontypridd United	L 0-3	40.5	1051	992	48.88%	23.29%	27.83%	+0.54	-27.5	0
2024-02-03	@ Barry Town United	W 3-0	40.5	992	1051	27.83%	23.29%	48.88%	-0.54	+27.5	3
2024-02-06	Newtown	W 3-0	26.1	1540	1125	80.78%	13.55%	5.67%	+2.97	+3.4	3
2024-02-06	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	26.1	1125	1540	5.67%	13.55%	80.78%	-2.97	-3.4	0
2024-02-09	Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	42.1	960	981	37.90%	23.76%	38.34%	-0.01	-8.2	3
2024-02-09	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	42.1	981	960	38.34%	23.76%	37.90%	+0.01	+8.2	3
2024-02-09	Pontypridd United	D 1-1	53.1	1098	1020	51.34%	23.03%	25.62%	+0.67	-1.2	1
2024-02-09	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	53.1	1020	1098	25.62%	23.03%	51.34%	-0.67	+1.2	4
2024-02-09	The New Saints	L 0-1	33.5	1183	1544	8.73%	16.62%	74.65%	-2.33	-2.0	1
2024-02-09	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	33.5	1544	1183	74.65%	16.62%	8.73%	+2.33	+2.0	6
2024-02-10	Barry Town United	D 2-2	58.7	1183	1023	60.64%	21.43%	17.94%	+1.23	-1.5	4
2024-02-10	@ Penybont	D 2-2	58.7	1023	1183	17.94%	21.43%	60.64%	-1.23	+1.5	1
2024-02-10	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	58.1	1121	1083	46.15%	23.51%	30.35%	+0.39	-0.5	2
2024-02-10	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	58.1	1083	1121	30.35%	23.51%	46.15%	-0.39	+0.5	2
2024-02-10	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-3	45.3	1122	1321	17.97%	21.44%	60.60%	-1.22	-3.9	0
2024-02-10	@ Newtown	W 3-2	45.3	1321	1122	60.60%	21.44%	17.97%	+1.22	+3.9	4
2024-02-23	Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.1	1181	952	67.33%	19.52%	13.15%	+1.70	-2.6	5
2024-02-23	@ Penybont	D 1-1	54.1	952	1181	13.15%	19.52%	67.33%	-1.70	+2.6	4
2024-02-23	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	52.9	1025	1096	31.07%	23.55%	45.38%	-0.35	+0.6	2
2024-02-23	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.9	1096	1025	45.38%	23.55%	31.07%	+0.35	-0.6	2
2024-02-23	The New Saints	L 1-8	26.8	1084	1546	5.49%	13.32%	81.19%	-3.02	-6.0	2
2024-02-23	@ Caernarfon Town	W 8-1	26.8	1546	1084	81.19%	13.32%	5.49%	+3.02	+6.0	9
2024-02-24	Bala Town	L 1-5	38.8	1118	1181	32.26%	23.62%	44.12%	-0.29	-21.5	0
2024-02-24	@ Newtown	W 5-1	38.8	1181	1118	44.12%	23.62%	32.26%	+0.29	+21.5	4
2024-02-24	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	39.1	1325	1121	65.05%	20.25%	14.70%	+1.53	+3.3	7
2024-02-24	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	39.1	1121	1325	14.70%	20.25%	65.05%	-1.53	-3.3	2
2024-02-24	Colwyn Bay	W 4-0	34.3	1021	989	45.29%	23.56%	31.16%	+0.35	+25.1	7
2024-02-24	@ Pontypridd United	L 0-4	34.3	989	1021	31.16%	23.56%	45.29%	-0.35	-25.1	3
2024-03-01	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	46.7	1202	1328	24.73%	22.91%	52.37%	-0.73	+10.7	7
2024-03-01	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	46.7	1328	1202	52.37%	22.91%	24.73%	+0.73	-10.7	7
2024-03-01	Newtown	W 1-0	42.1	1078	1097	38.29%	23.76%	37.94%	+0.01	+8.2	5
2024-03-01	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	42.1	1097	1078	37.94%	23.76%	38.29%	-0.01	-8.2	0
2024-03-02	Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.9	954	1025	31.18%	23.56%	45.26%	-0.35	+0.6	5
2024-03-02	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	52.9	1025	954	45.26%	23.56%	31.18%	+0.35	-0.6	3
2024-03-02	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-0	24.8	1552	1117	81.90%	12.93%	5.17%	+3.10	+4.0	12
2024-03-02	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	24.8	1117	1552	5.17%	12.93%	81.90%	-3.10	-4.0	2
2024-03-02	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	49.2	964	1096	24.17%	22.82%	53.00%	-0.76	+1.5	4
2024-03-02	@ Colwyn Bay	D 0-0	49.2	1096	964	53.00%	22.82%	24.17%	+0.76	-1.5	3
2024-03-02	Pontypridd United	L 0-1	47.6	1179	1046	57.76%	22.04%	20.20%	+1.04	-11.6	5
2024-03-02	@ Penybont	W 1-0	47.6	1046	1179	20.20%	22.04%	57.76%	-1.04	+11.6	10
2024-03-08	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	53.4	1213	1086	57.10%	22.17%	20.73%	+1.00	-1.7	8
2024-03-08	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.4	1086	1213	20.73%	22.17%	57.10%	-1.00	+1.7	6
2024-03-08	Penybont	L 0-1	40.0	1094	1167	30.95%	23.55%	45.50%	-0.36	-7.0	3
2024-03-08	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	40.0	1167	1094	45.50%	23.55%	30.95%	+0.36	+7.0	8
2024-03-08	The New Saints	L 1-5	38.2	1318	1556	15.14%	20.43%	64.43%	-1.49	-10.9	7
2024-03-08	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 5-1	38.2	1556	1318	64.43%	20.43%	15.14%	+1.49	+10.9	15
2024-03-09	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	39.8	1088	1113	37.43%	23.76%	38.81%	-0.03	+15.7	3
2024-03-09	@ Newtown	L 0-2	39.8	1113	1088	38.81%	23.76%	37.43%	+0.03	-15.7	2
2024-03-09	Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	53.0	1025	966	48.91%	23.29%	27.80%	+0.54	-0.9	4
2024-03-09	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	53.0	966	1025	27.80%	23.29%	48.91%	-0.54	+1.0	5
2024-03-15	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	33.6	1087	955	57.72%	22.05%	20.23%	+1.04	+9.1	6
2024-03-15	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	33.6	955	1087	20.23%	22.05%	57.72%	-1.04	-9.1	5
2024-03-15	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	53.6	1088	1307	16.45%	20.93%	62.61%	-1.36	+11.8	9
2024-03-15	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	53.6	1307	1088	62.61%	20.93%	16.45%	+1.36	-11.8	7
2024-03-16	Bala Town	L 0-1	38.4	1097	1211	26.07%	23.09%	50.84%	-0.64	-6.0	2
2024-03-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	38.4	1211	1097	50.84%	23.09%	26.07%	+0.64	+6.0	11
2024-03-16	Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.9	1057	1024	45.63%	23.54%	30.83%	+0.37	-0.7	11
2024-03-16	@ Pontypridd United	D 1-1	52.9	1024	1057	30.83%	23.54%	45.63%	-0.37	+0.7	5
2024-03-16	Colwyn Bay	W 5-0	28.2	1174	967	65.30%	20.17%	14.53%	+1.55	+15.4	11
2024-03-16	@ Penybont	L 0-5	28.2	967	1174	14.53%	20.17%	65.30%	-1.55	-15.4	5
2024-03-16	The New Saints	L 0-1	30.8	1104	1566	5.47%	13.30%	81.22%	-3.02	-1.2	3
2024-03-16	@ Newtown	W 1-0	30.8	1566	1104	81.22%	13.30%	5.47%	+3.02	+1.2	18
2024-03-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	48.1	1100	1091	42.11%	23.70%	34.19%	+0.19	-8.4	9
2024-03-23	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	48.1	1091	1100	34.19%	23.70%	42.11%	-0.19	+8.4	5
2024-03-29	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-2	48.0	951	946	41.74%	23.71%	34.55%	+0.17	-8.3	5
2024-03-29	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	48.0	946	951	34.55%	23.71%	41.74%	-0.17	+8.3	8
2024-03-29	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	41.3	1057	1096	35.35%	23.73%	40.92%	-0.13	-7.8	11
2024-03-29	@ Pontypridd United	W 1-0	41.3	1096	1057	40.92%	23.73%	35.35%	+0.13	+7.8	9
2024-03-29	Newtown	D 0-0	50.1	1295	1103	63.87%	20.59%	15.54%	+1.45	-2.6	8
2024-03-29	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.1	1103	1295	15.54%	20.59%	63.87%	-1.45	+2.6	4
2024-03-29	Penybont	D 0-0	49.4	1024	1189	20.87%	22.20%	56.93%	-0.99	+1.9	6
2024-03-29	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	49.4	1189	1024	56.93%	22.20%	20.87%	+0.99	-1.9	12
2024-04-05	Barry Town United	W 2-1	42.9	1104	1026	51.35%	23.03%	25.62%	+0.67	+5.6	12
2024-04-05	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	42.9	1026	1104	25.62%	23.03%	51.35%	-0.67	-5.6	6
2024-04-05	Caernarfon Town	W 7-1	26.5	1568	1091	84.14%	11.63%	4.23%	+3.39	+3.8	21
2024-04-05	@ The New Saints	L 1-7	26.5	1091	1568	4.23%	11.63%	84.14%	-3.39	-3.9	9
2024-04-05	Newtown	D 1-1	53.4	1217	1106	55.39%	22.47%	22.15%	+0.90	-1.5	12
2024-04-05	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	53.4	1106	1217	22.15%	22.47%	55.39%	-0.90	+1.5	5
2024-04-06	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	31.1	1100	1293	18.49%	21.59%	59.92%	-1.18	-12.2	5
2024-04-06	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	31.1	1293	1100	59.92%	21.59%	18.49%	+1.18	+12.2	11
2024-04-06	Penybont	L 0-3	29.7	954	1188	15.43%	20.55%	64.02%	-1.46	-10.2	8
2024-04-06	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	29.7	1188	954	64.02%	20.55%	15.43%	+1.46	+10.2	15
2024-04-06	Pontypridd United	W 1-0	45.5	943	1049	26.94%	23.19%	49.87%	-0.59	+10.2	8
2024-04-06	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	45.5	1049	943	49.87%	23.19%	26.94%	+0.59	-10.2	11
2024-04-09	Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	49.2	1039	944	53.41%	22.77%	23.82%	+0.78	-1.5	12
2024-04-09	@ Pontypridd United	D 0-0	49.2	944	1039	23.82%	22.77%	53.41%	-0.78	+1.5	9
2024-04-09	Bala Town	W 4-1	34.0	1572	1216	77.07%	15.47%	7.45%	+2.57	+3.9	24
2024-04-09	@ The New Saints	L 1-4	34.0	1216	1572	7.45%	15.47%	77.07%	-2.57	-3.9	12
2024-04-12	Bala Town	D 0-0	49.7	1305	1212	53.16%	22.80%	24.04%	+0.77	-1.5	12
2024-04-12	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	49.7	1212	1305	24.04%	22.80%	53.16%	-0.77	+1.5	13
2024-04-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	43.0	1020	945	50.99%	23.07%	25.94%	+0.65	+5.7	9
2024-04-13	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	43.0	945	1020	25.94%	23.07%	50.99%	-0.65	-5.7	9
2024-04-13	Caernarfon Town	W 5-0	34.7	1107	1087	43.71%	23.64%	32.65%	+0.27	+32.1	8
2024-04-13	@ Newtown	L 0-5	34.7	1087	1107	32.65%	23.64%	43.71%	-0.27	-32.1	9
2024-04-13	Colwyn Bay	W 3-1	37.9	1110	953	60.31%	21.50%	18.19%	+1.21	+7.1	15
2024-04-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-3	37.9	953	1110	18.19%	21.50%	60.31%	-1.21	-7.1	8
2024-04-13	Penybont	L 0-3	32.0	1037	1198	21.31%	22.29%	56.40%	-0.96	-13.9	12
2024-04-13	@ Pontypridd United	W 3-0	32.0	1198	1037	56.40%	22.29%	21.31%	+0.96	+13.9	18
2024-04-13	The New Saints	L 0-5	24.4	1088	1575	4.85%	12.50%	82.65%	-3.20	-4.6	5
2024-04-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-0	24.4	1575	1088	82.65%	12.50%	4.85%	+3.20	+4.6	27
2024-04-21	Bala Town	D 2-2	58.4	1055	1213	21.52%	22.34%	56.14%	-0.94	+1.2	10
2024-04-21	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	58.4	1213	1055	56.14%	22.34%	21.52%	+0.94	-1.2	14
2024-04-21	Barry Town United	W 1-0	44.6	946	1026	30.03%	23.48%	46.49%	-0.41	+9.6	11
2024-04-21	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	44.6	1026	946	46.49%	23.48%	30.03%	+0.41	-9.6	9
2024-04-21	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-0	35.4	1580	1303	71.30%	18.06%	10.65%	+2.03	+4.8	30
2024-04-21	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	35.4	1303	1580	10.65%	18.06%	71.30%	-2.03	-4.8	12
2024-04-21	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	37.7	1212	1117	53.38%	22.77%	23.85%	+0.78	+5.6	21
2024-04-21	@ Penybont	L 0-1	37.7	1117	1212	23.85%	22.77%	53.38%	-0.78	-5.6	15
2024-04-21	Newtown	L 1-3	43.1	1083	1139	33.10%	23.66%	43.24%	-0.25	-12.0	5
2024-04-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	43.1	1139	1083	43.24%	23.66%	33.10%	+0.25	+12.0	11
2024-04-21	Pontypridd United	W 3-0	40.0	940	1023	29.58%	23.45%	46.97%	-0.44	+26.6	12
2024-04-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-3	40.0	1023	940	46.97%	23.45%	29.58%	+0.44	-26.6	12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-10-27	11.13%	Aberystwyth Town	942	2	@ Penybont	1209	0
2	2023-11-19	12.78%	Haverfordwest County	1087	2	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1323	1
3	2023-09-09	13.87%	Colwyn Bay	1020	1	@ Penybont	1238	0
4	2023-09-27	14.56%	Aberystwyth Town	956	1	@ Bala Town	1162	0
5	2023-11-04	16.08%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1120	3	Connahs Quay Nomads	1344	1
6	2024-03-15	16.45%	@ Caernarfon Town	1088	2	Connahs Quay Nomads	1307	1
7	2023-11-25	19.47%	@ Colwyn Bay	1011	2	Penybont	1192	1
8	2024-03-02	20.20%	Pontypridd United	1046	1	@ Penybont	1179	0
9	2023-09-23	20.22%	@ Barry Town United	1009	3	Bala Town	1181	1
10	2024-01-06	20.47%	@ Barry Town United	999	4	Newtown	1169	0
11	2023-10-17	21.14%	@ Haverfordwest County	1057	3	Penybont	1219	2
12	2024-02-02	21.30%	@ Aberystwyth Town	948	1	Haverfordwest County	1109	0
13	2024-03-01	24.73%	@ Bala Town	1202	1	Connahs Quay Nomads	1328	0
14	2023-08-25	25.68%	@ Bala Town	1161	1	Connahs Quay Nomads	1279	0
15	2023-11-19	26.06%	Barry Town United	1012	3	@ Caernarfon Town	1086	2
16	2024-04-06	26.94%	@ Colwyn Bay	943	1	Pontypridd United	1049	0
17	2024-02-03	27.83%	Pontypridd United	992	3	@ Barry Town United	1051	0
18	2023-11-04	28.38%	Aberystwyth Town	968	1	@ Barry Town United	1022	0
19	2024-04-21	29.58%	@ Aberystwyth Town	940	3	Pontypridd United	1023	0
20	2023-08-13	29.86%	Caernarfon Town	1027	4	@ Colwyn Bay	1068	0
21	2024-04-21	30.03%	@ Colwyn Bay	946	1	Barry Town United	1026	0
22	2023-09-02	30.54%	@ Bala Town	1171	2	Penybont	1247	1
23	2023-11-19	31.36%	Colwyn Bay	985	3	@ Pontypridd United	1015	0
24	2023-12-16	31.48%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1146	1	@ Bala Town	1175	0
25	2023-09-01	32.16%	@ Newtown	1081	2	Cardiff Metropolitan	1144	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-01-06	41.37	@ Barry Town United	4	999	20.47%	Newtown	0	1169	57.42%	22.11%
2	2023-08-13	34.59	Caernarfon Town	4	1027	29.86%	@ Colwyn Bay	0	1068	46.68%	23.47%
3	2024-04-13	32.14	@ Newtown	5	1107	43.71%	Caernarfon Town	0	1087	32.65%	23.64%
4	2023-09-09	31.79	Newtown	4	1090	34.20%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	1098	42.10%	23.70%
5	2023-11-04	29.84	@ Haverfordwest County	5	1057	46.77%	Colwyn Bay	0	1015	29.77%	23.46%
6	2024-02-03	27.53	Pontypridd United	3	992	27.83%	@ Barry Town United	0	1051	48.88%	23.29%
7	2023-10-21	27.03	@ Caernarfon Town	5	1080	33.19%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1136	43.15%	23.66%
8	2024-04-21	26.61	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	940	29.58%	Pontypridd United	0	1023	46.97%	23.45%
9	2023-10-27	26.03	Aberystwyth Town	2	942	11.13%	@ Penybont	0	1209	70.50%	18.37%
10	2023-11-19	25.72	Colwyn Bay	3	985	31.36%	@ Pontypridd United	0	1015	45.07%	23.57%
11	2024-02-24	25.12	@ Pontypridd United	4	1021	45.29%	Colwyn Bay	0	989	31.16%	23.56%
12	2023-12-26	23.71	Penybont	3	1157	35.52%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1155	40.74%	23.73%
13	2023-10-07	22.14	@ Newtown	4	1156	50.09%	Caernarfon Town	0	1088	26.74%	23.17%
14	2024-02-24	21.53	Bala Town	5	1181	44.12%	@ Newtown	1	1118	32.26%	23.62%
15	2023-09-30	21.08	Caernarfon Town	3	1067	41.30%	@ Barry Town United	0	1024	34.98%	23.72%
16	2023-11-04	20.53	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1120	16.08%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1344	63.12%	20.80%
17	2023-09-23	18.97	@ Barry Town United	3	1009	20.22%	Bala Town	1	1181	57.73%	22.05%
18	2023-12-02	17.36	Bala Town	2	1157	32.37%	@ Penybont	0	1179	44.01%	23.63%
19	2023-12-31	17.00	The New Saints	4	1512	58.18%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	0	1335	19.86%	21.96%
20	2023-10-17	16.84	@ Barry Town United	2	998	33.95%	Pontypridd United	0	1048	42.36%	23.69%
21	2023-10-07	16.46	@ Pontypridd United	2	1032	35.12%	Haverfordwest County	0	1073	41.16%	23.73%
22	2023-09-16	16.06	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1297	59.66%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1147	18.69%	21.65%
23	2024-03-09	15.73	@ Newtown	2	1088	37.43%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1113	38.81%	23.76%
24	2023-09-30	15.70	@ Haverfordwest County	3	1057	52.67%	Aberystwyth Town	0	969	24.46%	22.87%
25	2024-03-16	15.44	@ Penybont	5	1174	65.30%	Colwyn Bay	0	967	14.53%	20.17%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-08-26	61.6	@ The New Saints	2	1463	81.77%	Barry Town United	2	1031	5.23%	13.00%
2	2024-02-10	58.7	@ Penybont	2	1183	60.64%	Barry Town United	2	1023	17.94%	21.43%
3	2024-04-21	58.4	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1055	21.52%	Bala Town	2	1213	56.14%	22.34%
4	2023-09-30	58.1	@ Colwyn Bay	2	1032	28.65%	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1123	47.98%	23.37%
5	2024-01-13	58.1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1121	46.52%	Caernarfon Town	2	1080	30.00%	23.48%
6	2024-02-10	58.1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1121	46.15%	Caernarfon Town	2	1083	30.35%	23.51%
7	2023-08-29	58.0	@ Barry Town United	2	1034	32.91%	Haverfordwest County	2	1091	43.44%	23.65%
8	2023-10-17	56.9	@ Haverfordwest County	3	1057	21.14%	Penybont	2	1219	56.60%	22.26%
9	2023-11-19	55.3	Barry Town United	3	1012	26.06%	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1086	50.85%	23.09%
10	2023-10-06	55.2	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	953	8.12%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1330	75.78%	16.10%
11	2023-11-19	54.7	Haverfordwest County	2	1087	12.78%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1323	67.90%	19.33%
12	2024-02-02	54.5	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1324	68.52%	Caernarfon Town	1	1081	12.37%	19.11%
13	2023-10-18	54.1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1326	62.67%	Bala Town	1	1147	16.41%	20.92%
14	2024-02-23	54.1	@ Penybont	1	1181	67.33%	Aberystwyth Town	1	952	13.15%	19.52%
15	2024-03-15	53.6	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1088	16.45%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1307	62.61%	20.93%
16	2023-12-30	53.4	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	948	20.48%	Haverfordwest County	1	1117	57.42%	22.11%
17	2024-03-08	53.4	@ Bala Town	1	1213	57.10%	Caernarfon Town	1	1086	20.73%	22.17%
18	2024-04-05	53.4	@ Bala Town	1	1217	55.39%	Newtown	1	1106	22.15%	22.47%
19	2023-10-28	53.3	@ Newtown	1	1169	55.60%	Haverfordwest County	1	1056	21.97%	22.43%
20	2023-11-28	53.3	@ Barry Town United	1	1021	21.37%	Penybont	1	1181	56.32%	22.31%
21	2023-08-29	53.1	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1070	27.40%	Bala Town	1	1172	49.35%	23.25%
22	2023-09-26	53.1	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1124	50.06%	Haverfordwest County	1	1056	26.77%	23.18%
23	2023-11-28	53.1	@ Bala Town	1	1158	51.85%	Caernarfon Town	1	1076	25.18%	22.97%
24	2024-02-03	53.1	@ Bala Town	1	1184	49.55%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1120	27.22%	23.23%
25	2024-02-09	53.1	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1098	51.34%	Pontypridd United	1	1020	25.62%	23.03%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-09-01	23.2	@ The New Saints	6	1462	84.22%	Aberystwyth Town	0	984	4.20%	11.58%
2	2023-09-30	23.7	@ The New Saints	4	1477	82.28%	Pontypridd United	0	1036	5.01%	12.71%
3	2024-04-13	24.4	The New Saints	5	1575	82.65%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1088	4.85%	12.50%
4	2024-03-02	24.8	@ The New Saints	4	1552	81.90%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1117	5.17%	12.93%
5	2023-10-31	26.1	@ The New Saints	6	1495	84.16%	Colwyn Bay	1	1018	4.23%	11.62%
6	2024-02-06	26.1	@ The New Saints	3	1540	80.78%	Newtown	0	1125	5.67%	13.55%
7	2024-01-06	26.5	@ The New Saints	8	1529	79.83%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1130	6.11%	14.06%
8	2024-04-05	26.5	@ The New Saints	7	1568	84.14%	Caernarfon Town	1	1091	4.23%	11.63%
9	2023-08-18	26.7	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1269	70.79%	Aberystwyth Town	0	999	10.95%	18.26%
10	2024-02-23	26.8	The New Saints	8	1546	81.19%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1084	5.49%	13.32%
11	2023-12-02	27.0	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	7	1313	72.38%	Barry Town United	0	1022	10.01%	17.61%
12	2023-12-16	27.5	@ The New Saints	3	1504	76.16%	Penybont	0	1162	7.92%	15.92%
13	2023-10-21	28.2	Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1324	69.33%	@ Pontypridd United	0	1031	11.85%	18.81%
14	2024-03-16	28.2	@ Penybont	5	1174	65.30%	Colwyn Bay	0	967	14.53%	20.17%
15	2023-09-16	28.6	@ The New Saints	5	1463	79.73%	Haverfordwest County	1	1066	6.15%	14.11%
16	2023-09-01	29.7	Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1275	61.08%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1071	17.60%	21.32%
17	2023-10-28	29.7	@ The New Saints	2	1491	75.40%	Bala Town	0	1160	8.32%	16.28%
18	2024-04-06	29.7	Penybont	3	1188	64.02%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	954	15.43%	20.55%
19	2023-10-21	30.0	The New Saints	6	1489	81.85%	@ Barry Town United	2	1015	5.20%	12.96%
20	2023-08-29	30.2	The New Saints	1	1460	79.41%	@ Colwyn Bay	0	1028	6.30%	14.28%
21	2023-09-16	30.3	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1297	59.66%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1147	18.69%	21.65%
22	2023-08-19	30.5	The New Saints	1	1462	78.53%	@ Pontypridd United	0	1044	6.73%	14.74%
23	2023-11-04	30.7	The New Saints	2	1498	72.38%	@ Newtown	0	1168	10.01%	17.61%
24	2024-03-16	30.8	The New Saints	1	1566	81.22%	@ Newtown	0	1104	5.47%	13.30%
25	2023-11-28	30.9	The New Saints	3	1503	85.00%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	969	3.89%	11.11%