2024-25 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

78 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Flint Town United

9.26 points above expected

42 points · 32.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bala Town

7.27 points below expected

37 points · 44.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	17	0	5	51	61	26	+35	50.36	+0.64
2	Penybont	22	15	5	2	50	42	16	+26	40.11	+9.89
3	Haverfordwest County	22	11	7	4	40	29	11	+18	35.00	+5.00
4	Caernarfon Town	22	10	4	8	34	35	35	0	28.46	+5.54
5	Bala Town	22	7	11	4	32	28	21	+7	34.47	-2.47
6	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	9	5	8	32	32	29	+3	30.32	+1.68
7	Barry Town United	22	8	6	8	30	32	38	-6	24.79	+5.21
8	Connahs Quay Nomads	22	7	5	10	26	32	26	+6	36.01	-10.01
9	Briton Ferry Llansawel	22	6	3	13	21	33	45	-12	24.67	-3.67
10	Flint Town United	22	6	2	14	20	27	47	-20	23.16	-3.16
11	Newtown	22	5	4	13	19	24	46	-22	24.86	-5.86
12	Aberystwyth Town	22	4	2	16	14	18	53	-35	16.86	-2.86

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	26	0	6	78	89	31	+58	71.85	+6.15
2	Penybont	32	19	7	6	64	56	32	+24	67.62	-3.62
3	Haverfordwest County	32	13	12	7	51	39	26	+13	54.35	-3.35
4	Caernarfon Town	32	14	6	12	48	53	51	+2	43.74	+4.26
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	12	8	12	44	43	46	-3	41.04	+2.96
6	Bala Town	32	8	13	11	37	38	43	-5	44.27	-7.27

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Barry Town United	32	15	7	10	52	55	51	+4	46.23	+5.77
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	32	12	6	14	42	47	35	+12	45.59	-3.59
3	Flint Town United	32	13	3	16	42	48	62	-14	32.74	+9.26
4	Briton Ferry Llansawel	32	9	5	18	32	46	65	-19	37.53	-5.53
5	Newtown	32	6	8	18	26	36	65	-29	29.25	-3.25
6	Aberystwyth Town	32	6	3	23	21	28	71	-43	22.52	-1.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Flint Town United	42	32.74	+9.26
2	The New Saints	78	71.85	+6.15
3	Barry Town United	52	46.23	+5.77
4	Caernarfon Town	48	43.74	+4.26
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	44	41.04	+2.96

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bala Town	37	44.27	-7.27
2	Briton Ferry Llansawel	32	37.53	-5.53
3	Penybont	64	67.62	-3.62
4	Connahs Quay Nomads	42	45.59	-3.59
5	Haverfordwest County	51	54.35	-3.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Caernarfon Town	4	Sep 25 – Oct 9	1 in 193
2	The New Saints	12	Dec 22 – Mar 22	1 in 82
3	Penybont	5	Aug 26 – Sep 20	1 in 81
4	Flint Town United	4	Mar 22 – Apr 19	1 in 28
5	Barry Town United	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Briton Ferry Llansawel	6	Aug 11 – Sep 14	1 in 87
2	Newtown	7	Nov 8 – Jan 14	1 in 74
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	Aug 26 – Oct 12	1 in 70
4	Bala Town	5	Jan 25 – Mar 8	1 in 45
5	Connahs Quay Nomads	4	Dec 31 – Jan 25	1 in 39

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bala Town	9	Oct 12 – Dec 26	1 in 95
2	Caernarfon Town	6	Sep 14 – Oct 9	1 in 36
3	Penybont	8	Aug 11 – Sep 20	1 in 34
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	6	Aug 10 – Sep 7	1 in 23
5	Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	Sep 21 – Sep 28	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Newtown	13	Oct 15 – Feb 8	1 in 52
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	5	Sep 7 – Sep 28	1 in 34
3	Bala Town	9	Jan 25 – Apr 11	1 in 23
4	Haverfordwest County	6	Mar 8 – Apr 19	1 in 17
5	Briton Ferry Llansawel	7	Aug 11 – Sep 21	1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1523	78	+19	12	11.5	+0.5
Penybont	1320	64	+26	10	8.0	+2.0
Barry Town United	1195	52	+72	12	8.5	+3.5
Haverfordwest County	1245	51	-27	3	7.1	-4.1
Caernarfon Town	1221	48	+43	7	5.7	+1.3
Cardiff Metropolitan	1150	44	-27	3	5.0	-2.0
Flint Town United	1114	42	+36	12	7.1	+4.9
Connahs Quay Nomads	1180	42	-25	7	10.1	-3.1
Bala Town	1125	37	-33	5	4.6	+0.4
Briton Ferry Llansawel	1066	32	+15	9	6.8	+2.2
Newtown	933	26	-54	1	5.1	-4.1
Aberystwyth Town	882	21	-38	4	4.6	-0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BT	BTU	BFL	CT	CM	CQN	FTU	HC	NEW	PEN	TNS
Aberystwyth Town	—	0-1-1 1.23	1-0-3 3.67	1-0-3 3.96	2-0-0 1.26	0-0-2 1.34	0-2-2 2.45	0-0-4 4.22	0-0-2 1.28	2-0-2 4.25	0-0-2 1.11	0-0-2 0.65
Bala Town	1-1-0 4.38	—	1-1-0 3.59	1-1-0 3.70	0-1-3 6.51	0-2-2 5.81	1-1-0 2.62	1-1-0 3.70	0-2-2 4.83	0-2-0 3.64	1-1-2 3.85	2-0-2 2.17
Barry Town United	3-0-1 7.50	0-1-1 1.99	—	3-1-0 6.22	0-1-1 2.63	1-1-0 2.45	3-0-1 4.07	3-0-1 6.32	0-2-0 1.75	2-1-1 6.47	0-0-2 1.37	0-0-2 0.91
Briton Ferry Llansawel	3-0-1 7.19	0-1-1 1.88	0-1-3 4.93	—	0-0-2 2.24	1-0-1 2.41	2-0-2 3.26	0-1-3 5.64	0-0-2 1.56	1-2-1 6.29	1-0-1 1.84	1-0-1 0.79
Caernarfon Town	0-0-2 4.35	3-1-0 4.64	1-1-0 2.94	2-0-0 3.33	—	2-0-2 5.84	1-1-0 2.13	2-0-0 3.24	0-3-1 4.44	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-3 3.67	1-0-3 2.07
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-0-0 4.25	2-2-0 5.33	0-1-1 3.12	1-0-1 3.17	2-0-2 5.30	—	1-0-1 2.43	2-0-0 3.11	0-2-2 4.77	1-0-1 3.44	1-3-0 3.17	0-0-4 2.13
Connahs Quay Nomads	2-2-0 8.77	0-1-1 2.95	1-0-3 7.09	2-0-2 7.92	0-1-1 3.45	1-0-1 3.14	—	3-0-1 7.84	0-1-1 3.08	3-1-0 8.06	0-0-2 2.30	0-0-2 1.39
Flint Town United	4-0-0 6.94	0-1-1 1.88	1-0-3 4.83	3-1-0 5.50	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 2.47	1-0-3 3.33	—	1-0-1 1.75	3-1-0 6.43	0-0-2 1.26	0-0-2 0.91
Haverfordwest County	2-0-0 4.33	2-2-0 6.32	0-2-0 3.83	2-0-0 4.03	1-3-0 6.71	2-2-0 6.38	1-1-0 2.50	1-0-1 3.84	—	2-0-0 3.77	0-2-2 4.72	0-0-4 2.59
Newtown	2-0-2 6.90	0-2-0 1.94	1-1-2 4.69	1-2-1 4.86	1-0-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.13	0-1-3 3.13	0-1-3 4.73	0-0-2 1.81	—	0-1-1 1.49	0-0-2 0.87
Penybont	2-0-0 4.51	2-1-1 7.32	2-0-0 4.23	1-0-1 3.76	3-0-1 7.50	0-3-1 8.01	2-0-0 3.28	2-0-0 4.35	2-2-0 6.43	1-1-0 4.11	—	2-0-2 3.42
The New Saints	2-0-0 5.02	2-0-2 9.08	2-0-0 4.73	1-0-1 4.86	3-0-1 9.18	4-0-0 9.11	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 4.72	4-0-0 8.61	2-0-0 4.78	2-0-2 7.75	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+9.1
Allowed	0.59	-7.9
Differential	0.92	+5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.81%	6.77%	4.69%	2.86%	1.56%	1.04%	24.74%
1	6.77%	8.85%	9.90%	3.65%	1.56%	2.08%	32.81%
2	4.69%	9.90%	3.12%	3.65%	1.04%	0.78%	23.18%
3	2.86%	3.65%	3.65%	0.52%	0.26%	—	10.94%
4	1.56%	1.56%	1.04%	0.26%	—	—	4.43%
5+	1.04%	2.08%	0.78%	—	—	—	3.91%
Total	24.74%	32.81%	23.18%	10.94%	4.43%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.51	1.51	+0.00
SD	1.35	1.35	2.01
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	12.50%	9.38%	21.88%	3.12%	—	50.00%
1	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	—	3.12%	6.25%	31.25%
2	—	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%
3	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	28.12%	28.12%	21.88%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.88	2.22	-1.34
SD	1.16	1.39	1.93
CV	1.32	0.62	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	21.88%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	3.12%	37.50%
1	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
2	9.38%	—	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
3	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	12.50%	34.38%	12.50%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.34	-0.16
SD	1.12	1.29	1.55
CV	0.94	0.96	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	12.50%
1	3.12%	18.75%	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	37.50%
2	3.12%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	28.12%
3	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	12.50%	46.88%	18.75%	12.50%	9.38%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.59	+0.12
SD	1.22	1.16	1.77
CV	0.71	0.73	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	18.75%
1	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	9.38%	46.88%
2	—	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	18.75%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	3.12%	15.62%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	2.03	-0.59
SD	1.29	1.66	2.20
CV	0.90	0.82	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	15.62%
1	3.12%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	37.50%
2	3.12%	12.50%	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
3	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	34.38%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.66	1.59	+0.06
SD	1.23	1.41	2.03
CV	0.75	0.89	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	28.12%
1	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	21.88%	3.12%	—	—	—	28.12%
3	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	18.75%	43.75%	21.88%	12.50%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.44	-0.09
SD	1.23	1.24	1.84
CV	0.92	0.86	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	15.62%	6.25%	—	—	—	28.12%
1	9.38%	12.50%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	40.62%
2	3.12%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
3	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	31.25%	34.38%	28.12%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.09	+0.38
SD	1.63	0.93	1.90
CV	1.11	0.85	—
Max	7	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
1	3.12%	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	28.12%
2	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	34.38%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	28.12%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.94	-0.44
SD	1.14	1.63	2.27
CV	0.76	0.84	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	21.88%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
1	12.50%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	40.62%
2	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
3	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	46.88%	37.50%	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	0.81	+0.41
SD	1.26	1.09	1.58
CV	1.04	1.34	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	28.12%
1	6.25%	9.38%	15.62%	3.12%	—	3.12%	37.50%
2	—	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	15.62%	12.50%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	2.03	-0.91
SD	0.94	1.40	1.71
CV	0.84	0.69	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	34.38%
3	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	37.50%	40.62%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.00	+0.75
SD	1.34	1.08	1.61
CV	0.77	1.08	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
1	6.25%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
2	12.50%	15.62%	—	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
3	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
5+	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	34.38%	40.62%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	0.97	+1.81
SD	1.66	0.90	1.96
CV	0.60	0.93	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1523	78	50.36	+27.64	59.0%	37	41	47	50	54	59	61
Penybont	1320	64	40.11	+23.89	94.0%	26	30	36	40	45	51	54
Haverfordwest County	1245	51	35.00	+16.00	84.0%	17	26	31	35	39	43	50
Caernarfon Town	1221	48	28.46	+19.54	84.0%	16	20	23	29	32	38	44
Barry Town United	1195	52	24.79	+27.21	83.0%	11	15	20	24	28	36	48
Connahs Quay Nomads	1180	42	36.01	+5.99	6.0%	25	26	32	35	40	46	51
Cardiff Metropolitan	1150	44	30.32	+13.68	65.0%	17	20	27	30	34	40	43
Bala Town	1125	37	34.47	+2.53	35.0%	16	25	31	34	37	45	54
Flint Town United	1114	42	23.16	+18.84	35.0%	11	13	18	23	28	33	38
Briton Ferry Llansawel	1026	32	24.67	+7.33	30.0%	12	16	21	24	28	36	40
Newtown	933	26	24.86	+1.14	17.0%	13	16	20	24	29	34	38
Aberystwyth Town	921	21	16.86	+4.14	33.0%	5	10	13	16	20	27	28

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+9.90%

Clear Edge

44.79%20.31%34.90%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 34.49 Elo pts.

177 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.25 goals

Neutral

-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.5

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

81%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.44/gm

Comfortable

00.250.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.41 * Wild Swing: 9.41 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.29 * Close: 1.29 to 1.93 * Off: 1.93 to 2.57 * Way Off: 2.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.45 points

Some Luck

05.8815

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.50

01.614

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

94.00%

Penybont

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.00%

Connahs Quay Nomads

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Even

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 156.74

2.06

Moderate Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

73%

Clear Edge

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

96%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Very Frequent

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Rare

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.83

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.26

Weak Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Shaky Favorites

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.17

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.82

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.110

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	81.00%	16.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	11.00%	41.00%	24.00%	5.00%	9.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Haverfordwest County	—	15.00%	19.00%	23.00%	15.00%	11.00%	7.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%
Caernarfon Town	—	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	12.00%	13.00%	18.00%	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	1.00%	10.00%	11.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.00%	14.00%	12.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Bala Town	3.00%	10.00%	14.00%	22.00%	13.00%	19.00%	8.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Barry Town United	—	3.00%	—	4.00%	3.00%	9.00%	12.00%	10.00%	10.00%	19.00%	22.00%	8.00%
Connahs Quay Nomads	5.00%	13.00%	20.00%	19.00%	18.00%	12.00%	7.00%	6.00%	—	—	—	—
Flint Town United	—	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	16.00%	8.00%	19.00%	15.00%	21.00%	12.00%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	—	—	5.00%	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	7.00%	16.00%	17.00%	24.00%	14.00%	6.00%
Newtown	—	—	—	3.00%	9.00%	7.00%	9.00%	20.00%	14.00%	11.00%	23.00%	4.00%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	7.00%	9.00%	14.00%	64.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	73.47%	25.53%	0.96%	0.04%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	26.18%	69.62%	4.08%	0.12%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Haverfordwest County	0.34%	4.67%	77.58%	13.47%	3.43%	0.51%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	0.01%	0.09%	6.87%	33.88%	33.86%	25.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	0.03%	2.62%	16.15%	28.84%	52.36%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bala Town	—	0.06%	7.89%	36.34%	33.87%	21.84%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	51.40%	35.69%	10.30%	2.33%	0.28%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	—	—	—	—	—	—	42.85%	42.50%	11.61%	2.59%	0.44%	0.01%
Flint Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.04%	4.43%	20.24%	43.55%	25.50%	5.24%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.54%	15.90%	49.05%	22.23%	7.18%	1.10%
Newtown	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.16%	1.43%	7.90%	24.64%	50.15%	15.72%
Aberystwyth Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.05%	0.90%	4.66%	16.45%	77.93%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Haverfordwest County	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	97.00%	3.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	97.00%	3.00%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	88.00%	12.00%
Barry Town United	75.00%	25.00%
Newtown	63.00%	37.00%
Flint Town United	62.00%	38.00%
Aberystwyth Town	18.00%	82.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Bala Town	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Haverfordwest County	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Barry Town United	99.72%	0.28%
Connahs Quay Nomads	99.55%	0.45%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	91.72%	8.28%
Flint Town United	69.26%	30.74%
Newtown	34.13%	65.87%
Aberystwyth Town	5.62%	94.38%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-08-09	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-1	35.0	1159	1045	58.09%	20.78%	21.13%	+0.84	+18.6	3
2024-08-09	@ Newtown	L 1-4	35.0	1045	1159	21.13%	20.78%	58.09%	-0.84	-18.6	0
2024-08-10	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.2	1079	1197	28.21%	21.30%	50.49%	-0.47	+1.6	1
2024-08-10	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.2	1197	1079	50.49%	21.30%	28.21%	+0.47	-1.6	1
2024-08-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	47.8	1102	1107	43.38%	21.51%	35.11%	+0.17	-13.8	0
2024-08-10	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	47.8	1107	1102	35.11%	21.51%	43.38%	-0.17	+13.8	3
2024-08-11	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	47.2	1251	1136	58.27%	20.77%	20.97%	+0.85	-19.0	0
2024-08-11	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	47.2	1136	1251	20.97%	20.77%	58.27%	-0.85	+19.0	3
2024-08-11	Penybont	L 0-2	37.9	1160	1202	38.09%	21.54%	40.37%	-0.04	-24.8	0
2024-08-11	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	37.9	1202	1160	40.37%	21.54%	38.09%	+0.04	+24.8	3
2024-08-16	Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.1	1121	1081	49.41%	21.35%	29.24%	+0.42	-1.5	4
2024-08-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.1	1081	1121	29.24%	21.35%	49.41%	-0.42	+1.5	2
2024-08-16	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	34.4	1195	1135	51.92%	21.23%	26.85%	+0.53	+18.7	4
2024-08-16	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	34.4	1135	1195	26.85%	21.23%	51.92%	-0.53	-18.7	0
2024-08-16	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.4	1026	1232	19.03%	20.54%	60.43%	-0.97	+3.2	1
2024-08-16	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.4	1232	1026	60.43%	20.54%	19.03%	+0.97	-3.2	1
2024-08-16	Newtown	D 0-0	50.2	1227	1178	50.61%	21.29%	28.10%	+0.47	-1.8	4
2024-08-16	@ Penybont	D 0-0	50.2	1178	1227	28.10%	21.29%	50.61%	-0.47	+1.8	4
2024-08-16	The New Saints	L 1-4	31.7	1088	1416	10.68%	18.78%	70.54%	-1.66	-9.7	0
2024-08-16	@ Flint Town United	W 4-1	31.7	1416	1088	70.54%	18.78%	10.68%	+1.66	+9.7	3
2024-08-17	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	45.7	1100	1155	36.35%	21.53%	42.13%	-0.12	-12.0	0
2024-08-17	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	45.7	1155	1100	42.13%	21.53%	36.35%	+0.12	+12.0	6
2024-08-23	Barry Town United	W 1-0	42.3	1030	1082	36.65%	21.53%	41.83%	-0.10	+14.2	4
2024-08-23	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 0-1	42.3	1082	1030	41.83%	21.53%	36.65%	+0.10	-14.2	2
2024-08-23	Caernarfon Town	L 0-4	39.7	1180	1088	55.66%	20.99%	23.36%	+0.71	-65.0	4
2024-08-23	@ Newtown	W 4-0	39.7	1088	1180	23.36%	20.99%	55.66%	-0.71	+65.0	3
2024-08-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-5	40.3	1116	1119	43.68%	21.51%	34.82%	+0.18	-43.8	0
2024-08-23	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-1	40.3	1119	1116	34.82%	21.51%	43.68%	-0.18	+43.8	7
2024-08-23	Flint Town United	W 2-0	31.8	1214	1078	60.28%	20.56%	19.16%	+0.96	+13.9	7
2024-08-23	@ Bala Town	L 0-2	31.8	1078	1214	19.16%	20.56%	60.28%	-0.96	-13.9	0
2024-08-23	Penybont	D 0-0	50.1	1167	1225	35.79%	21.52%	42.69%	-0.14	+0.5	7
2024-08-23	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.1	1225	1167	42.69%	21.52%	35.79%	+0.14	-0.6	5
2024-08-26	Aberystwyth Town	W 5-1	31.4	1225	1044	64.53%	19.99%	15.48%	+1.22	+18.1	8
2024-08-26	@ Penybont	L 1-5	31.4	1044	1225	15.48%	19.99%	64.53%	-1.22	-18.0	4
2024-08-26	Bala Town	D 0-0	50.1	1153	1228	33.60%	21.48%	44.91%	-0.23	+0.9	4
2024-08-26	@ Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	50.1	1228	1153	44.91%	21.48%	33.60%	+0.23	-0.9	8
2024-08-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	36.5	1065	1229	22.97%	20.96%	56.08%	-0.74	-8.7	0
2024-08-26	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	36.5	1229	1065	56.08%	20.96%	22.97%	+0.74	+8.6	4
2024-08-26	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.1	1163	1167	43.57%	21.51%	34.92%	+0.17	-0.7	8
2024-08-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.1	1167	1163	34.92%	21.51%	43.57%	-0.17	+0.7	8
2024-08-26	Newtown	L 1-2	46.0	1068	1115	37.54%	21.54%	40.93%	-0.07	-12.3	2
2024-08-26	@ Barry Town United	W 2-1	46.0	1115	1068	40.93%	21.54%	37.54%	+0.07	+12.3	7
2024-08-30	Newtown	W 3-0	32.7	1168	1127	49.53%	21.34%	29.13%	+0.43	+29.0	11
2024-08-30	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	32.7	1127	1168	29.13%	21.34%	49.53%	-0.43	-29.0	7
2024-08-31	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	47.7	1154	1163	42.86%	21.52%	35.63%	+0.14	-13.7	4
2024-08-31	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	47.7	1163	1154	35.63%	21.52%	42.86%	-0.14	+13.7	11
2024-08-31	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-5	33.9	1073	1238	22.90%	20.95%	56.15%	-0.74	-25.8	0
2024-08-31	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-1	33.9	1238	1073	56.15%	20.95%	22.90%	+0.74	+25.8	7
2024-08-31	Flint Town United	W 3-2	50.0	1056	1056	44.09%	21.50%	34.41%	+0.20	+10.9	5
2024-08-31	@ Barry Town United	L 2-3	50.0	1056	1056	34.41%	21.50%	44.09%	-0.20	-10.9	0
2024-08-31	Penybont	L 1-2	47.6	1227	1243	41.86%	21.53%	36.61%	+0.10	-13.4	8
2024-08-31	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	47.6	1243	1227	36.61%	21.53%	41.86%	-0.10	+13.4	11
2024-09-03	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	26.6	1425	1026	78.59%	16.07%	5.34%	+2.45	+3.9	6
2024-09-03	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	26.6	1026	1425	5.34%	16.07%	78.59%	-2.45	-3.9	4
2024-09-07	Barry Town United	L 1-2	54.1	1264	1067	65.88%	19.76%	14.36%	+1.31	-20.1	7
2024-09-07	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	54.1	1067	1264	14.36%	19.76%	65.88%	-1.31	+20.1	8
2024-09-07	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 1-0	38.0	1098	1047	50.79%	21.29%	27.92%	+0.48	+10.2	10
2024-09-07	@ Newtown	L 0-1	38.0	1047	1098	27.92%	21.29%	50.79%	-0.48	-10.2	0
2024-09-07	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	32.5	1256	1140	58.31%	20.76%	20.93%	+0.85	+15.0	14
2024-09-07	@ Penybont	L 0-2	32.5	1140	1256	20.93%	20.76%	58.31%	-0.85	-15.0	4
2024-09-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	44.6	1213	1176	49.05%	21.36%	29.59%	+0.41	-16.2	8
2024-09-07	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	44.6	1176	1213	29.59%	21.36%	49.05%	-0.41	+16.2	14
2024-09-07	Flint Town United	L 0-2	38.6	1022	1045	40.86%	21.54%	37.60%	+0.06	-26.3	4
2024-09-07	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	38.6	1045	1022	37.60%	21.54%	40.86%	-0.06	+26.3	3
2024-09-07	The New Saints	L 0-1	35.5	1197	1429	16.82%	20.22%	62.96%	-1.12	-6.5	11
2024-09-07	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	35.5	1429	1197	62.96%	20.22%	16.82%	+1.12	+6.5	9
2024-09-13	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	27.6	1197	996	66.27%	19.69%	14.04%	+1.33	+15.1	11
2024-09-13	@ Bala Town	L 0-3	27.6	996	1197	14.04%	19.69%	66.27%	-1.33	-15.1	4
2024-09-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	48.6	1108	1192	32.35%	21.45%	46.19%	-0.28	+14.5	13
2024-09-13	@ Newtown	L 1-2	48.6	1192	1108	46.19%	21.45%	32.35%	+0.28	-14.5	14
2024-09-14	Barry Town United	W 4-0	24.4	1436	1087	76.04%	17.10%	6.86%	+2.17	+9.6	12
2024-09-14	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	24.4	1087	1436	6.86%	17.10%	76.04%	-2.17	-9.6	8
2024-09-14	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-2	46.7	1125	1037	55.26%	21.02%	23.72%	+0.69	+8.0	7
2024-09-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	46.7	1037	1125	23.72%	21.02%	55.26%	-0.69	-8.0	0
2024-09-14	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	44.9	1071	1190	28.04%	21.29%	50.67%	-0.48	+16.7	6
2024-09-14	@ Flint Town United	L 0-1	44.9	1190	1071	50.67%	21.29%	28.04%	+0.48	-16.7	11
2024-09-15	Penybont	L 0-1	42.3	1243	1271	40.18%	21.54%	38.28%	+0.04	-13.7	7
2024-09-15	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	42.3	1271	1243	38.28%	21.54%	40.18%	-0.04	+13.8	17
2024-09-20	Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	29.7	981	1174	20.20%	20.68%	59.12%	-0.90	-21.2	4
2024-09-20	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	29.7	1174	981	59.12%	20.68%	20.20%	+0.90	+21.2	14
2024-09-20	Newtown	D 2-2	59.6	1212	1123	55.42%	21.01%	23.58%	+0.70	-1.8	12
2024-09-20	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	59.6	1123	1212	23.58%	21.01%	55.42%	-0.70	+1.8	14
2024-09-20	The New Saints	W 2-1	53.5	1285	1445	23.42%	20.99%	55.58%	-0.71	+17.1	20
2024-09-20	@ Penybont	L 1-2	53.5	1445	1285	55.58%	20.99%	23.42%	+0.71	-17.1	12
2024-09-21	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.1	1077	1133	36.24%	21.53%	42.24%	-0.12	+0.4	9
2024-09-21	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.1	1133	1077	42.24%	21.53%	36.24%	+0.12	-0.4	8
2024-09-21	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	47.4	1178	1230	36.77%	21.53%	41.70%	-0.10	+13.3	17
2024-09-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	47.4	1230	1178	41.70%	21.53%	36.77%	+0.10	-13.3	7
2024-09-21	Flint Town United	D 1-1	54.1	1029	1088	35.73%	21.52%	42.76%	-0.14	+0.5	1
2024-09-21	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	54.1	1088	1029	42.76%	21.52%	35.73%	+0.14	-0.5	7
2024-09-24	Bala Town	L 2-3	60.5	1428	1211	67.55%	19.45%	13.00%	+1.43	-19.5	12
2024-09-24	@ The New Saints	W 3-2	60.5	1211	1428	13.00%	19.45%	67.55%	-1.43	+19.5	15
2024-09-24	Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.3	1195	1078	58.39%	20.75%	20.86%	+0.86	-2.9	15
2024-09-24	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.3	1078	1195	20.86%	20.75%	58.39%	-0.86	+2.9	10
2024-09-24	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	50.4	1302	1029	71.53%	18.53%	9.94%	+1.74	-23.0	20
2024-09-24	@ Penybont	W 1-0	50.4	1029	1302	9.94%	18.53%	71.53%	-1.74	+23.0	4
2024-09-24	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	39.4	959	1191	16.86%	20.23%	62.91%	-1.12	-6.2	4
2024-09-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	39.4	1191	959	62.91%	20.23%	16.86%	+1.12	+6.2	20
2024-09-24	Newtown	D 1-1	54.3	1216	1124	55.68%	20.99%	23.34%	+0.72	-2.4	8
2024-09-24	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.3	1124	1216	23.34%	20.99%	55.68%	-0.72	+2.4	15
2024-09-25	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	46.1	1088	1133	37.72%	21.54%	40.74%	-0.06	-12.3	7
2024-09-25	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	46.1	1133	1088	40.74%	21.54%	37.72%	+0.06	+12.3	11
2024-09-27	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	35.4	1081	953	59.47%	20.64%	19.89%	+0.92	+7.6	13
2024-09-27	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	35.4	953	1081	19.89%	20.64%	59.47%	-0.92	-7.6	4
2024-09-27	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	40.5	1192	1197	43.32%	21.51%	35.17%	+0.16	+12.4	18
2024-09-27	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.5	1197	1192	35.17%	21.51%	43.32%	-0.16	-12.4	20
2024-09-27	The New Saints	L 1-6	30.4	1127	1409	13.30%	19.52%	67.18%	-1.40	-19.1	15
2024-09-27	@ Newtown	W 6-1	30.4	1409	1127	67.18%	19.52%	13.30%	+1.40	+19.1	15
2024-09-28	Bala Town	D 2-2	59.7	1052	1230	21.63%	20.83%	57.53%	-0.81	+2.0	5
2024-09-28	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	59.7	1230	1052	57.53%	20.83%	21.63%	+0.81	-2.0	16
2024-09-28	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 3-1	45.0	1145	1214	34.39%	21.50%	44.11%	-0.20	+24.2	14
2024-09-28	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	45.0	1214	1145	44.11%	21.50%	34.39%	+0.20	-24.2	8
2024-09-28	Penybont	L 0-1	35.3	1075	1279	19.20%	20.56%	60.24%	-0.96	-7.4	7
2024-09-28	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	35.3	1279	1075	60.24%	20.56%	19.20%	+0.96	+7.4	23
2024-10-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	26.6	1190	946	69.54%	19.02%	11.44%	+1.58	+12.4	11
2024-10-04	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	26.6	946	1190	11.44%	19.02%	69.54%	-1.58	-12.4	4
2024-10-04	Barry Town United	W 4-1	32.8	1287	1088	66.00%	19.74%	14.26%	+1.32	+12.9	26
2024-10-04	@ Penybont	L 1-4	32.8	1088	1287	14.26%	19.74%	66.00%	-1.32	-12.9	13
2024-10-04	Flint Town United	L 2-4	50.5	1108	1068	49.39%	21.35%	29.26%	+0.42	-23.8	15
2024-10-04	@ Newtown	W 4-2	50.5	1068	1108	29.26%	21.35%	49.39%	-0.42	+23.8	10
2024-10-04	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	40.7	1228	1204	47.31%	21.42%	31.27%	+0.33	-29.7	16
2024-10-04	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	40.7	1204	1228	31.27%	21.42%	47.31%	-0.33	+29.7	21
2024-10-05	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	48.7	1185	1169	46.27%	21.45%	32.28%	+0.29	-14.5	20
2024-10-05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	48.7	1169	1185	32.28%	21.45%	46.27%	-0.29	+14.5	17
2024-10-09	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	55.8	1428	1184	69.53%	19.02%	11.44%	+1.58	-21.2	15
2024-10-09	@ The New Saints	W 2-1	55.8	1184	1428	11.44%	19.02%	69.53%	-1.58	+21.2	20
2024-10-12	Bala Town	D 2-2	59.5	1092	1198	29.52%	21.36%	49.13%	-0.41	+1.1	11
2024-10-12	@ Flint Town United	D 2-2	59.5	1198	1092	49.13%	21.36%	29.52%	+0.41	-1.1	17
2024-10-12	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-1	41.1	1075	1054	46.94%	21.43%	31.62%	+0.31	+18.5	16
2024-10-12	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	41.1	1054	1075	31.62%	21.43%	46.94%	-0.31	-18.5	5
2024-10-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	27.5	1407	1171	68.94%	19.16%	11.90%	+1.53	+12.9	18
2024-10-12	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	27.5	1171	1407	11.90%	19.16%	68.94%	-1.53	-12.9	20
2024-10-12	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.3	1234	1202	48.35%	21.39%	30.27%	+0.37	-1.5	22
2024-10-12	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.3	1202	1234	30.27%	21.39%	48.35%	-0.37	+1.5	12
2024-10-12	Newtown	L 1-2	52.2	1205	1084	58.81%	20.71%	20.48%	+0.88	-18.0	20
2024-10-12	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	52.2	1084	1205	20.48%	20.71%	58.81%	-0.88	+18.0	18
2024-10-12	Penybont	L 0-3	25.6	933	1299	8.84%	18.09%	73.07%	-1.88	-9.5	4
2024-10-12	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	25.6	1299	933	73.07%	18.09%	8.84%	+1.88	+9.5	29
2024-10-15	Aberystwyth Town	L 1-4	49.3	1187	924	70.86%	18.70%	10.44%	+1.68	-52.8	20
2024-10-15	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-1	49.3	924	1187	10.44%	18.70%	70.86%	-1.68	+52.8	7
2024-10-15	Barry Town United	L 2-4	49.2	1102	1094	45.19%	21.48%	33.33%	+0.24	-22.1	18
2024-10-15	@ Newtown	W 4-2	49.2	1094	1102	33.33%	21.48%	45.19%	-0.24	+22.1	19
2024-10-15	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	50.1	1197	1204	43.23%	21.51%	35.26%	+0.16	-0.6	18
2024-10-15	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	50.1	1204	1197	35.26%	21.51%	43.23%	-0.16	+0.6	13
2024-10-15	Flint Town United	W 5-0	25.0	1419	1093	74.82%	17.53%	7.65%	+2.04	+13.2	21
2024-10-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	25.0	1093	1419	7.65%	17.53%	74.82%	-2.04	-13.2	11
2024-10-15	Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	40.5	1036	1232	19.85%	20.64%	59.50%	-0.92	-7.2	5
2024-10-15	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	40.5	1232	1036	59.50%	20.64%	19.85%	+0.92	+7.2	25
2024-10-15	Penybont	D 1-1	54.5	1158	1309	24.37%	21.07%	54.56%	-0.66	+2.3	21
2024-10-15	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.5	1309	1158	54.56%	21.07%	24.37%	+0.66	-2.2	30
2024-10-25	Newtown	W 2-1	42.0	1160	1080	54.32%	21.08%	24.60%	+0.65	+8.7	24
2024-10-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	42.0	1080	1160	24.60%	21.08%	54.32%	-0.65	-8.7	18
2024-10-26	Bala Town	D 1-1	54.7	1307	1197	57.65%	20.82%	21.53%	+0.82	-2.7	31
2024-10-26	@ Penybont	D 1-1	54.7	1197	1307	21.53%	20.82%	57.65%	-0.82	+2.7	19
2024-10-26	Barry Town United	L 1-2	46.4	1079	1116	38.95%	21.54%	39.51%	-0.01	-12.6	11
2024-10-26	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	46.4	1116	1079	39.51%	21.54%	38.95%	+0.01	+12.6	22
2024-10-26	Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	50.3	1240	1134	57.18%	20.86%	21.96%	+0.79	-3.0	26
2024-10-26	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.3	1134	1240	21.96%	20.86%	57.18%	-0.79	+3.0	21
2024-10-27	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	39.1	1204	1029	64.07%	20.06%	15.87%	+1.19	+5.8	16
2024-10-27	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	39.1	1029	1204	15.87%	20.06%	64.07%	-1.19	-5.9	5
2024-10-27	The New Saints	L 2-4	36.0	976	1433	5.68%	16.32%	78.00%	-2.38	-3.2	7
2024-10-27	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 4-2	36.0	1433	976	78.00%	16.32%	5.68%	+2.38	+3.2	24
2024-10-30	The New Saints	L 1-2	40.8	1210	1436	17.35%	20.30%	62.35%	-1.08	-6.3	16
2024-10-30	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	40.8	1436	1210	62.35%	20.30%	17.35%	+1.08	+6.4	27
2024-11-02	Aberystwyth Town	W 4-0	31.5	1023	973	50.60%	21.30%	28.11%	+0.47	+36.8	8
2024-11-02	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-4	31.5	973	1023	28.11%	21.30%	50.60%	-0.47	-36.8	7
2024-11-02	Bala Town	D 0-0	50.1	1071	1199	26.93%	21.23%	51.83%	-0.53	+2.1	19
2024-11-02	@ Newtown	D 0-0	50.1	1199	1071	51.83%	21.23%	26.93%	+0.53	-2.0	20
2024-11-02	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	38.8	1204	1169	48.78%	21.37%	29.85%	+0.39	+10.8	19
2024-11-02	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	38.8	1169	1204	29.85%	21.37%	48.78%	-0.39	-10.8	24
2024-11-02	Flint Town United	W 4-1	33.4	1237	1067	63.54%	20.14%	16.32%	+1.16	+14.7	29
2024-11-02	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-4	33.4	1067	1237	16.32%	20.14%	63.54%	-1.16	-14.7	11
2024-11-02	Penybont	L 1-5	34.1	1137	1304	22.72%	20.93%	56.35%	-0.75	-25.6	21
2024-11-02	@ Caernarfon Town	W 5-1	34.1	1304	1137	56.35%	20.93%	22.72%	+0.75	+25.6	34
2024-11-02	The New Saints	L 1-4	32.3	1129	1442	11.41%	19.02%	69.57%	-1.58	-10.4	22
2024-11-02	@ Barry Town United	W 4-1	32.3	1442	1129	69.57%	19.02%	11.41%	+1.58	+10.4	30
2024-11-08	Newtown	W 3-1	47.4	936	1073	25.98%	21.18%	52.84%	-0.58	+28.3	10
2024-11-08	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	47.4	1073	936	52.84%	21.18%	25.98%	+0.58	-28.3	19
2024-11-09	Bala Town	D 3-3	63.6	1158	1197	38.50%	21.54%	39.96%	-0.03	+0.1	25
2024-11-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 3-3	63.6	1197	1158	39.96%	21.54%	38.50%	+0.03	-0.1	21
2024-11-09	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	40.8	1060	1111	36.76%	21.53%	41.71%	-0.10	-12.8	8
2024-11-09	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 1-0	40.8	1111	1060	41.71%	21.53%	36.76%	+0.10	+12.8	24
2024-11-09	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 3-2	54.1	1118	1215	30.82%	21.41%	47.78%	-0.35	+14.2	25
2024-11-09	@ Barry Town United	L 2-3	54.1	1215	1118	47.78%	21.41%	30.82%	+0.35	-14.2	19
2024-11-09	Flint Town United	W 3-1	33.8	1330	1052	71.82%	18.45%	9.74%	+1.76	+6.3	37
2024-11-09	@ Penybont	L 1-3	33.8	1052	1330	9.74%	18.45%	71.82%	-1.76	-6.3	11
2024-11-10	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	40.3	1453	1251	66.25%	19.70%	14.06%	+1.33	+5.2	33
2024-11-10	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	40.3	1251	1453	14.06%	19.70%	66.25%	-1.33	-5.2	29
2024-11-20	The New Saints	W 3-1	53.5	1047	1458	7.09%	17.23%	75.68%	-2.13	+39.5	11
2024-11-20	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-3	53.5	1458	1047	75.68%	17.23%	7.09%	+2.13	-39.5	33
2024-11-23	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	27.8	1158	965	65.57%	19.82%	14.62%	+1.29	+15.7	28
2024-11-23	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	27.8	965	1158	14.62%	19.82%	65.57%	-1.29	-15.7	10
2024-11-23	Bala Town	D 0-0	50.3	1246	1197	50.52%	21.30%	28.18%	+0.47	-1.8	30
2024-11-23	@ Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.3	1197	1246	28.18%	21.30%	50.52%	-0.47	+1.8	22
2024-11-23	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	46.7	1046	1086	38.39%	21.54%	40.07%	-0.03	+12.9	14
2024-11-23	@ Flint Town United	L 1-2	46.7	1086	1046	40.07%	21.54%	38.39%	+0.03	-12.9	11
2024-11-23	Penybont	W 3-2	49.6	1418	1336	54.58%	21.07%	24.36%	+0.66	+8.2	36
2024-11-23	@ The New Saints	L 2-3	49.6	1336	1418	24.36%	21.07%	54.58%	-0.66	-8.1	37
2024-11-30	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	31.0	1045	1200	23.92%	21.03%	55.05%	-0.68	-24.6	19
2024-11-30	@ Newtown	W 3-0	31.0	1200	1045	55.05%	21.03%	23.92%	+0.68	+24.6	22
2024-12-03	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.4	1225	1124	56.64%	20.91%	22.45%	+0.76	-2.6	23
2024-12-03	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.4	1124	1225	22.45%	20.91%	56.64%	-0.76	+2.6	25
2024-12-03	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	37.6	1328	1244	54.69%	21.06%	24.25%	+0.67	+9.1	40
2024-12-03	@ Penybont	L 0-1	37.6	1244	1328	24.25%	21.06%	54.69%	-0.67	-9.1	30
2024-12-03	Newtown	W 2-1	42.9	1073	1020	51.05%	21.27%	27.68%	+0.49	+9.6	14
2024-12-03	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-2	42.9	1020	1073	27.68%	21.27%	51.05%	-0.49	-9.6	19
2024-12-04	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	30.1	1059	949	57.62%	20.83%	21.56%	+0.82	+22.4	17
2024-12-04	@ Flint Town United	L 0-3	30.1	949	1059	21.56%	20.83%	57.62%	-0.82	-22.4	10
2024-12-04	The New Saints	W 1-0	49.2	1199	1426	17.23%	20.28%	62.48%	-1.09	+20.3	25
2024-12-04	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	49.2	1426	1199	62.48%	20.28%	17.23%	+1.09	-20.3	36
2024-12-10	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	46.9	1132	1174	38.27%	21.54%	40.19%	-0.04	+13.0	28
2024-12-10	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	46.9	1174	1132	40.19%	21.54%	38.27%	+0.04	-13.0	28
2024-12-14	Barry Town United	W 3-2	50.8	1127	1145	41.51%	21.53%	36.96%	+0.09	+11.5	28
2024-12-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	50.8	1145	1127	36.96%	21.53%	41.51%	-0.09	-11.5	28
2024-12-14	Flint Town United	W 2-0	33.6	1161	1081	54.22%	21.09%	24.69%	+0.64	+17.4	31
2024-12-14	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	33.6	1081	1161	24.69%	21.09%	54.22%	-0.64	-17.4	17
2024-12-21	Barry Town United	W 3-1	38.8	1219	1134	54.95%	21.04%	24.01%	+0.68	+14.7	28
2024-12-21	@ Bala Town	L 1-3	38.8	1134	1219	24.01%	21.04%	54.95%	-0.68	-14.7	28
2024-12-21	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	49.6	927	1138	18.53%	20.47%	60.99%	-1.00	+32.4	13
2024-12-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	L 1-3	49.6	1138	927	60.99%	20.47%	18.53%	+1.00	-32.4	28
2024-12-22	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-2	33.4	1406	1083	74.62%	17.60%	7.78%	+2.02	+6.1	39
2024-12-22	@ The New Saints	L 2-5	33.4	1083	1406	7.78%	17.60%	74.62%	-2.02	-6.1	14
2024-12-26	Bala Town	D 0-0	50.5	959	1234	13.74%	19.62%	66.64%	-1.36	+4.7	14
2024-12-26	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 0-0	50.5	1234	959	66.64%	19.62%	13.74%	+1.36	-4.7	29
2024-12-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-3	48.5	1178	1077	56.70%	20.91%	22.40%	+0.77	-30.2	31
2024-12-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	48.5	1077	1178	22.40%	20.91%	56.70%	-0.77	+30.2	17
2024-12-26	Flint Town United	W 7-2	32.5	1222	1064	62.51%	20.28%	17.21%	+1.09	+20.4	26
2024-12-26	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-7	32.5	1064	1222	17.21%	20.28%	62.51%	-1.09	-20.4	17
2024-12-26	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	31.2	1011	1235	17.45%	20.32%	62.23%	-1.07	-12.8	19
2024-12-26	@ Newtown	W 2-0	31.2	1235	1011	62.23%	20.32%	17.45%	+1.07	+12.8	33
2024-12-26	Penybont	L 1-2	40.1	1119	1337	18.02%	20.40%	61.58%	-1.04	-6.6	28
2024-12-26	@ Barry Town United	W 2-1	40.1	1337	1119	61.58%	20.40%	18.02%	+1.04	+6.6	43
2024-12-26	The New Saints	L 2-5	35.2	1106	1412	11.82%	19.14%	69.04%	-1.54	-9.3	28
2024-12-26	@ Caernarfon Town	W 5-2	35.2	1412	1106	69.04%	19.14%	11.82%	+1.54	+9.3	42
2024-12-31	Barry Town United	D 0-0	50.0	1107	1113	43.32%	21.51%	35.17%	+0.16	-0.7	18
2024-12-31	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 0-0	50.0	1113	1107	35.17%	21.51%	43.32%	-0.16	+0.6	29
2024-12-31	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	60.3	1343	1148	65.77%	19.78%	14.45%	+1.30	-3.0	44
2024-12-31	@ Penybont	D 2-2	60.3	1148	1343	14.45%	19.78%	65.77%	-1.30	+3.0	32
2024-12-31	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	40.4	1422	1243	64.34%	20.02%	15.64%	+1.21	+5.8	45
2024-12-31	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	40.4	1243	1422	15.64%	20.02%	64.34%	-1.21	-5.8	26
2025-01-01	Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	31.6	1248	964	72.26%	18.33%	9.42%	+1.80	+3.7	36
2025-01-01	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	31.6	964	1248	9.42%	18.33%	72.26%	-1.80	-3.7	14
2025-01-01	Newtown	W 2-0	34.8	1043	998	50.11%	21.32%	28.57%	+0.45	+19.7	20
2025-01-01	@ Flint Town United	L 0-2	34.8	998	1043	28.57%	21.32%	50.11%	-0.45	-19.7	19
2025-01-04	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-1	32.5	1252	1106	61.26%	20.44%	18.30%	+1.02	+21.1	39
2025-01-04	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-5	32.5	1106	1252	18.30%	20.44%	61.26%	-1.02	-21.1	18
2025-01-04	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	37.0	1340	1237	56.93%	20.89%	22.19%	+0.78	+8.4	47
2025-01-04	@ Penybont	L 0-1	37.0	1237	1340	22.19%	20.89%	56.93%	-0.78	-8.4	26
2025-01-04	Newtown	W 2-1	34.2	1427	978	80.80%	15.03%	4.17%	+2.73	+1.5	48
2025-01-04	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	34.2	978	1427	4.17%	15.03%	80.80%	-2.73	-1.5	19
2025-01-11	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	44.1	1229	1097	60.03%	20.58%	19.39%	+0.95	-36.8	29
2025-01-11	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	44.1	1097	1229	19.39%	20.58%	60.03%	-0.95	+36.8	31
2025-01-14	Flint Town United	W 3-0	31.5	1133	1063	53.15%	21.16%	25.69%	+0.59	+26.1	34
2025-01-14	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	31.5	1063	1133	25.69%	21.16%	53.15%	-0.59	-26.1	20
2025-01-14	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.4	1113	1273	23.49%	21.00%	55.51%	-0.71	+2.4	30
2025-01-14	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.4	1273	1113	55.51%	21.00%	23.49%	+0.71	-2.4	40
2025-01-14	Penybont	L 1-2	36.3	977	1349	8.59%	17.98%	73.42%	-1.91	-3.2	19
2025-01-14	@ Newtown	W 2-1	36.3	1349	977	73.42%	17.98%	8.59%	+1.91	+3.2	50
2025-01-14	The New Saints	L 0-2	30.6	1151	1429	13.55%	19.58%	66.87%	-1.38	-10.0	32
2025-01-14	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	30.6	1429	1151	66.87%	19.58%	13.55%	+1.38	+10.0	51
2025-01-17	Bala Town	L 0-2	41.1	1229	1193	48.88%	21.37%	29.75%	+0.40	-30.5	26
2025-01-17	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-0	41.1	1193	1229	29.75%	21.37%	48.88%	-0.40	+30.5	32
2025-04-30	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-6	35.3	921	1026	29.76%	21.37%	48.88%	-0.40	-39.4	14
2025-04-30	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 6-1	35.3	1026	921	48.88%	21.37%	29.76%	+0.40	+39.4	21

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2025-01-24	Barry Town United	L 1-2	41.7	960	1116	23.91%	21.03%	55.06%	-0.68	-8.5	0
2025-01-24	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	41.7	1116	960	55.06%	21.03%	23.91%	+0.68	+8.5	3
2025-01-24	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	59.4	974	1085	28.92%	21.33%	49.75%	-0.44	+1.1	1
2025-01-24	@ Newtown	D 2-2	59.4	1085	974	49.75%	21.33%	28.92%	+0.44	-1.1	1
2025-01-24	Penybont	W 2-1	53.1	1141	1352	18.57%	20.48%	60.95%	-1.00	+18.7	3
2025-01-24	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	53.1	1352	1141	60.95%	20.48%	18.57%	+1.00	-18.7	0
2025-01-25	Bala Town	W 3-2	48.5	1270	1223	50.32%	21.31%	28.38%	+0.46	+9.3	3
2025-01-25	@ Haverfordwest County	L 2-3	48.5	1223	1270	28.38%	21.31%	50.32%	-0.46	-9.3	0
2025-01-25	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	51.3	1037	1198	23.33%	20.99%	55.68%	-0.72	+17.2	3
2025-01-25	@ Flint Town United	L 1-2	51.3	1198	1037	55.68%	20.99%	23.33%	+0.72	-17.1	0
2025-01-31	Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	47.1	1214	1160	51.22%	21.27%	27.52%	+0.50	-27.5	0
2025-01-31	@ Bala Town	W 3-1	47.1	1160	1214	27.52%	21.27%	51.22%	-0.50	+27.5	3
2025-02-01	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	57.4	1084	952	60.00%	20.59%	19.42%	+0.94	-17.4	1
2025-02-01	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-2	57.4	952	1084	19.42%	20.59%	60.00%	-0.94	+17.5	3
2025-02-01	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	34.5	1439	1159	71.95%	18.41%	9.64%	+1.78	+6.2	3
2025-02-01	@ The New Saints	L 1-3	34.5	1159	1439	9.64%	18.41%	71.95%	-1.78	-6.2	3
2025-02-01	Flint Town United	W 3-1	39.3	1124	1054	53.10%	21.16%	25.73%	+0.59	+15.6	6
2025-02-01	@ Barry Town United	L 1-3	39.3	1054	1124	25.73%	21.16%	53.10%	-0.59	-15.6	3
2025-02-01	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	51.0	1333	1280	51.12%	21.27%	27.61%	+0.50	-1.9	1
2025-02-01	@ Penybont	D 0-0	51.0	1280	1333	27.61%	21.27%	51.12%	-0.50	+1.9	4
2025-02-01	Newtown	W 1-0	33.3	1181	975	66.65%	19.62%	13.73%	+1.36	+5.4	3
2025-02-01	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	33.3	975	1181	13.73%	19.62%	66.65%	-1.36	-5.4	1
2025-02-07	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-0	33.9	1039	969	53.06%	21.16%	25.77%	+0.59	+18.0	6
2025-02-07	@ Flint Town United	L 0-2	33.9	969	1039	25.77%	21.16%	53.06%	-0.59	-18.0	3
2025-02-08	Bala Town	W 2-1	46.6	1153	1186	39.42%	21.54%	39.04%	+0.01	+12.7	6
2025-02-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	46.6	1186	1153	39.04%	21.54%	39.42%	-0.01	-12.7	0
2025-02-08	Barry Town United	D 1-1	54.2	969	1140	22.39%	20.90%	56.71%	-0.77	+2.6	2
2025-02-08	@ Newtown	D 1-1	54.2	1140	969	56.71%	20.90%	22.39%	+0.77	-2.6	7
2025-02-08	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	47.1	1186	1067	58.67%	20.73%	20.60%	+0.87	-19.1	3
2025-02-08	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	47.1	1067	1186	20.60%	20.73%	58.67%	-0.87	+19.1	4
2025-02-08	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.4	1187	1282	31.06%	21.41%	47.53%	-0.34	+1.2	4
2025-02-08	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.4	1282	1187	47.53%	21.41%	31.06%	+0.34	-1.2	5
2025-02-08	Penybont	W 4-0	32.4	1445	1331	58.05%	20.79%	21.16%	+0.84	+28.8	6
2025-02-08	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	32.4	1331	1445	21.16%	20.79%	58.05%	-0.84	-28.8	1
2025-02-11	The New Saints	L 0-1	34.5	1188	1474	13.06%	19.46%	67.48%	-1.42	-5.2	4
2025-02-11	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	34.5	1474	1188	67.48%	19.46%	13.06%	+1.42	+5.1	9
2025-02-21	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	36.1	1280	1166	58.13%	20.78%	21.09%	+0.84	+8.0	8
2025-02-21	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	36.1	1166	1280	21.09%	20.78%	58.13%	-0.84	-8.0	6
2025-02-21	The New Saints	L 0-2	30.5	1174	1479	11.88%	19.15%	68.97%	-1.53	-8.8	0
2025-02-21	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	30.5	1479	1174	68.97%	19.15%	11.88%	+1.53	+8.8	12
2025-02-22	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-1	43.2	1057	1086	39.99%	21.54%	38.47%	+0.03	+21.7	9
2025-02-22	@ Flint Town United	L 1-3	43.2	1086	1057	38.47%	21.54%	39.99%	-0.03	-21.7	4
2025-02-22	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-2	38.3	1137	1167	39.85%	21.54%	38.61%	+0.02	-25.8	7
2025-02-22	@ Barry Town United	W 2-0	38.3	1167	1137	38.61%	21.54%	39.85%	-0.02	+25.8	6
2025-02-22	Newtown	L 0-1	42.1	951	972	41.16%	21.53%	37.30%	+0.08	-14.0	3
2025-02-22	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	42.1	972	951	37.30%	21.53%	41.16%	-0.08	+14.0	5
2025-02-22	Penybont	W 3-2	55.2	1183	1302	27.99%	21.29%	50.72%	-0.48	+15.0	7
2025-02-22	@ Caernarfon Town	L 2-3	55.2	1302	1183	50.72%	21.29%	27.99%	+0.48	-15.0	1
2025-03-07	Aberystwyth Town	W 3-0	26.3	1193	937	70.38%	18.82%	10.80%	+1.64	+11.7	9
2025-03-07	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	26.3	937	1193	10.80%	18.82%	70.38%	-1.64	-11.7	3
2025-03-07	Barry Town United	L 3-4	53.9	1064	1111	37.42%	21.54%	41.05%	-0.07	-11.3	4
2025-03-07	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 4-3	53.9	1111	1064	41.05%	21.54%	37.42%	+0.07	+11.3	10
2025-03-07	Flint Town United	D 2-2	59.4	986	1078	31.33%	21.42%	47.24%	-0.33	+0.9	6
2025-03-07	@ Newtown	D 2-2	59.4	1078	986	47.24%	21.42%	31.33%	+0.33	-0.9	10
2025-03-08	Bala Town	W 3-2	45.8	1288	1165	58.98%	20.69%	20.32%	+0.89	+6.9	4
2025-03-08	@ Penybont	L 2-3	45.8	1165	1288	20.32%	20.69%	58.98%	-0.89	-6.9	0
2025-03-08	Caernarfon Town	W 4-2	47.8	1158	1198	38.41%	21.54%	40.05%	-0.03	+20.0	9
2025-03-08	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-4	47.8	1198	1158	40.05%	21.54%	38.41%	+0.03	-20.0	7
2025-03-08	Haverfordwest County	W 5-1	34.0	1488	1288	66.10%	19.72%	14.18%	+1.32	+16.6	15
2025-03-08	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	34.0	1288	1488	14.18%	19.72%	66.10%	-1.32	-16.6	8
2025-03-11	Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	38.5	1123	925	65.92%	19.75%	14.32%	+1.31	+5.3	13
2025-03-11	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	38.5	925	1123	14.32%	19.75%	65.92%	-1.31	-5.3	3
2025-03-11	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	29.1	1504	1178	74.80%	17.54%	7.66%	+2.04	+5.7	18
2025-03-11	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	29.1	1178	1504	7.66%	17.54%	74.80%	-2.04	-5.7	7
2025-03-11	Flint Town United	W 4-0	28.9	1205	1077	59.45%	20.65%	19.90%	+0.91	+27.3	12
2025-03-11	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-4	28.9	1077	1205	19.90%	20.65%	59.45%	-0.91	-27.3	10
2025-03-11	Newtown	D 1-1	54.1	1053	987	52.63%	21.19%	26.18%	+0.57	-2.0	5
2025-03-11	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	54.1	987	1053	26.18%	21.19%	52.63%	-0.57	+2.0	7
2025-03-14	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.5	1294	1178	58.35%	20.76%	20.89%	+0.85	-3.2	5
2025-03-14	@ Penybont	D 0-0	50.5	1178	1294	20.89%	20.76%	58.35%	-0.85	+3.2	10
2025-03-15	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	50.3	1158	1272	28.65%	21.32%	50.03%	-0.45	+1.8	1
2025-03-15	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	50.3	1272	1158	50.03%	21.32%	28.65%	+0.45	-1.8	9
2025-03-21	Bala Town	W 5-0	33.3	1172	1160	45.82%	21.46%	32.71%	+0.27	+51.4	10
2025-03-21	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-5	33.3	1160	1172	32.71%	21.46%	45.82%	-0.27	-51.4	1
2025-03-21	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	37.6	920	1051	26.65%	21.22%	52.13%	-0.54	-9.8	3
2025-03-21	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 1-0	37.6	1051	920	52.13%	21.22%	26.65%	+0.54	+9.8	8
2025-03-21	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-3	44.1	989	1232	15.99%	20.08%	63.94%	-1.18	-5.6	7
2025-03-21	@ Newtown	W 3-2	44.1	1232	989	63.94%	20.08%	15.99%	+1.18	+5.6	15
2025-03-21	Penybont	L 1-2	47.8	1270	1291	41.12%	21.53%	37.34%	+0.07	-13.2	9
2025-03-21	@ Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	47.8	1291	1270	37.34%	21.53%	41.12%	-0.07	+13.2	8
2025-03-22	Barry Town United	W 3-2	53.3	1050	1128	33.23%	21.48%	45.30%	-0.24	+13.6	13
2025-03-22	@ Flint Town United	L 2-3	53.3	1128	1050	45.30%	21.48%	33.23%	+0.24	-13.6	13
2025-03-22	The New Saints	L 0-6	28.3	1181	1510	10.59%	18.75%	70.66%	-1.67	-21.9	10
2025-03-22	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 6-0	28.3	1510	1181	70.66%	18.75%	10.59%	+1.67	+21.9	21
2025-03-28	Flint Town United	L 1-2	41.8	910	1064	24.13%	21.05%	54.82%	-0.67	-8.5	3
2025-03-28	@ Aberystwyth Town	W 2-1	41.8	1064	910	54.82%	21.05%	24.13%	+0.67	+8.5	16
2025-03-28	Newtown	W 2-1	40.3	1114	983	59.86%	20.60%	19.54%	+0.94	+7.1	16
2025-03-28	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	40.3	983	1114	19.54%	20.60%	59.86%	-0.94	-7.1	7
2025-03-29	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.5	1257	1224	48.51%	21.38%	30.11%	+0.38	-1.3	10
2025-03-29	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.5	1224	1257	30.11%	21.38%	48.51%	-0.38	+1.3	11
2025-03-29	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	50.0	1108	1159	36.90%	21.53%	41.57%	-0.09	+0.4	2
2025-03-29	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	50.0	1159	1108	41.57%	21.53%	36.90%	+0.09	-0.4	11
2025-03-29	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	46.8	1061	1237	21.73%	20.84%	57.42%	-0.81	+18.7	11
2025-03-29	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	46.8	1237	1061	57.42%	20.84%	21.73%	+0.81	-18.7	15
2025-03-29	The New Saints	W 1-0	52.6	1304	1532	17.21%	20.28%	62.51%	-1.09	+20.3	11
2025-03-29	@ Penybont	L 0-1	52.6	1532	1304	62.51%	20.28%	17.21%	+1.09	-20.3	21
2025-04-11	Bala Town	W 2-1	35.7	1512	1109	78.76%	15.99%	5.25%	+2.48	+1.9	24
2025-04-11	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	35.7	1109	1512	5.25%	15.99%	78.76%	-2.48	-1.9	2
2025-04-11	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	54.3	1159	1255	30.77%	21.41%	47.82%	-0.35	+1.2	12
2025-04-11	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	54.3	1255	1159	47.82%	21.41%	30.77%	+0.35	-1.2	11
2025-04-12	Aberystwyth Town	L 2-3	55.6	976	902	53.65%	21.13%	25.22%	+0.62	-15.7	7
2025-04-12	@ Newtown	W 3-2	55.6	902	976	25.22%	21.13%	53.65%	-0.62	+15.7	6
2025-04-12	Flint Town United	L 1-2	48.2	1079	1072	45.07%	21.48%	33.45%	+0.24	-14.2	11
2025-04-12	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	48.2	1072	1079	33.45%	21.48%	45.07%	-0.24	+14.2	19
2025-04-13	Barry Town United	L 0-2	43.1	1219	1121	56.26%	20.94%	22.79%	+0.75	-34.6	15
2025-04-13	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-0	43.1	1121	1219	22.79%	20.94%	56.26%	-0.75	+34.6	19
2025-04-13	Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	38.8	1325	1225	56.52%	20.92%	22.56%	+0.76	+13.9	14
2025-04-13	@ Penybont	L 1-3	38.8	1225	1325	22.56%	20.92%	56.52%	-0.76	-13.9	11
2025-04-19	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-0	30.3	1156	1065	55.55%	21.00%	23.45%	+0.71	+38.9	22
2025-04-19	@ Barry Town United	L 0-5	30.3	1065	1156	23.45%	21.00%	55.55%	-0.71	-38.9	11
2025-04-19	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-1	43.2	1211	1160	50.82%	21.28%	27.89%	+0.48	+9.6	14
2025-04-19	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	43.2	1160	1211	27.89%	21.28%	50.82%	-0.48	-9.6	12
2025-04-19	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	54.6	917	1184	14.29%	19.75%	65.96%	-1.31	+4.1	7
2025-04-19	@ Aberystwyth Town	D 1-1	54.6	1184	917	65.96%	19.75%	14.29%	+1.31	-4.1	16
2025-04-19	Newtown	W 4-0	28.8	1086	960	59.33%	20.66%	20.01%	+0.91	+27.4	22
2025-04-19	@ Flint Town United	L 0-4	28.8	960	1086	20.01%	20.66%	59.33%	-0.91	-27.4	7
2025-04-19	Penybont	W 3-2	58.4	1107	1339	16.85%	20.22%	62.92%	-1.12	+18.3	5
2025-04-19	@ Bala Town	L 2-3	58.4	1339	1107	62.92%	20.22%	16.85%	+1.12	-18.3	14
2025-04-19	The New Saints	L 1-3	38.5	1254	1514	14.81%	19.85%	65.34%	-1.27	-9.5	11
2025-04-19	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	38.5	1514	1254	65.34%	19.85%	14.81%	+1.27	+9.5	27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2024-11-20	7.09%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1047	3	The New Saints	1458	1
2	2024-09-24	9.94%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1029	1	@ Penybont	1302	0
3	2024-10-15	10.44%	Aberystwyth Town	924	4	@ Caernarfon Town	1187	1
4	2024-10-09	11.44%	Caernarfon Town	1184	2	@ The New Saints	1428	1
5	2024-09-24	13.00%	Bala Town	1211	3	@ The New Saints	1428	2
6	2024-09-07	14.36%	Barry Town United	1067	2	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1264	1
7	2025-04-19	16.85%	@ Bala Town	1107	3	Penybont	1339	2
8	2025-03-29	17.21%	@ Penybont	1304	1	The New Saints	1532	0
9	2024-12-04	17.23%	@ Bala Town	1199	1	The New Saints	1426	0
10	2024-12-21	18.53%	@ Aberystwyth Town	927	3	Caernarfon Town	1138	1
11	2025-01-24	18.57%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1141	2	Penybont	1352	1
12	2025-01-11	19.39%	Caernarfon Town	1097	2	@ Bala Town	1229	0
13	2025-02-01	19.42%	Aberystwyth Town	952	3	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1084	2
14	2024-10-12	20.48%	Newtown	1084	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1205	1
15	2025-02-08	20.60%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1067	1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1186	0
16	2024-08-11	20.97%	Haverfordwest County	1136	1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1251	0
17	2025-03-29	21.73%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1061	1	Connahs Quay Nomads	1237	0
18	2024-12-26	22.40%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1077	3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1178	1
19	2025-04-13	22.79%	Barry Town United	1121	2	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1219	0
20	2025-01-25	23.33%	@ Flint Town United	1037	2	Connahs Quay Nomads	1198	1
21	2024-08-23	23.36%	Caernarfon Town	1088	4	@ Newtown	1180	0
22	2024-09-20	23.42%	@ Penybont	1285	2	The New Saints	1445	1
23	2025-04-12	25.22%	Aberystwyth Town	902	3	@ Newtown	976	2
24	2024-11-08	25.98%	@ Aberystwyth Town	936	3	Newtown	1073	1
25	2025-01-31	27.52%	Caernarfon Town	1160	3	@ Bala Town	1214	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-08-23	65.05	Caernarfon Town	4	1088	23.36%	@ Newtown	0	1180	55.66%	20.99%
2	2024-10-15	52.76	Aberystwyth Town	4	924	10.44%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1187	70.86%	18.70%
3	2025-03-21	51.44	@ Caernarfon Town	5	1172	45.82%	Bala Town	0	1160	32.71%	21.46%
4	2024-08-23	43.84	Cardiff Metropolitan	5	1119	34.82%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	1116	43.68%	21.51%
5	2024-11-20	39.52	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	1047	7.09%	The New Saints	1	1458	75.68%	17.23%
6	2025-04-30	39.40	Briton Ferry Llansawel	6	1026	48.88%	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	921	29.76%	21.37%
7	2025-04-19	38.88	@ Barry Town United	5	1156	55.55%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	1065	23.45%	21.00%
8	2024-11-02	36.82	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	4	1023	50.60%	Aberystwyth Town	0	973	28.11%	21.30%
9	2025-01-11	36.81	Caernarfon Town	2	1097	19.39%	@ Bala Town	0	1229	60.03%	20.58%
10	2025-04-13	34.64	Barry Town United	2	1121	22.79%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	0	1219	56.26%	20.94%
11	2024-12-21	32.37	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	927	18.53%	Caernarfon Town	1	1138	60.99%	20.47%
12	2025-01-17	30.51	Bala Town	2	1193	29.75%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	0	1229	48.88%	21.37%
13	2024-12-26	30.21	Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	1077	22.40%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1178	56.70%	20.91%
14	2024-10-04	29.66	Haverfordwest County	2	1204	31.27%	@ Bala Town	0	1228	47.31%	21.42%
15	2024-08-30	29.04	@ Haverfordwest County	3	1168	49.53%	Newtown	0	1127	29.13%	21.34%
16	2025-02-08	28.83	@ The New Saints	4	1445	58.05%	Penybont	0	1331	21.16%	20.79%
17	2024-11-08	28.32	@ Aberystwyth Town	3	936	25.98%	Newtown	1	1073	52.84%	21.18%
18	2025-01-31	27.54	Caernarfon Town	3	1160	27.52%	@ Bala Town	1	1214	51.22%	21.27%
19	2025-04-19	27.41	@ Flint Town United	4	1086	59.33%	Newtown	0	960	20.01%	20.66%
20	2025-03-11	27.29	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1205	59.45%	Flint Town United	0	1077	19.90%	20.65%
21	2024-09-07	26.27	Flint Town United	2	1045	37.60%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	1022	40.86%	21.54%
22	2025-01-14	26.12	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1133	53.15%	Flint Town United	0	1063	25.69%	21.16%
23	2024-08-31	25.75	Connahs Quay Nomads	5	1238	56.15%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	1073	22.90%	20.95%
24	2025-02-22	25.75	Connahs Quay Nomads	2	1167	38.61%	@ Barry Town United	0	1137	39.85%	21.54%
25	2024-11-02	25.57	Penybont	5	1304	56.35%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1137	22.72%	20.93%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-11-09	63.6	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1158	38.50%	Bala Town	3	1197	39.96%	21.54%
2	2024-09-24	60.5	Bala Town	3	1211	13.00%	@ The New Saints	2	1428	67.55%	19.45%
3	2024-12-31	60.3	@ Penybont	2	1343	65.77%	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1148	14.45%	19.78%
4	2024-09-28	59.7	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	1052	21.63%	Bala Town	2	1230	57.53%	20.83%
5	2024-09-20	59.6	@ Bala Town	2	1212	55.42%	Newtown	2	1123	23.58%	21.01%
6	2024-10-12	59.5	@ Flint Town United	2	1092	29.52%	Bala Town	2	1198	49.13%	21.36%
7	2025-01-24	59.4	@ Newtown	2	974	28.92%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	1085	49.75%	21.33%
8	2025-03-07	59.4	@ Newtown	2	986	31.33%	Flint Town United	2	1078	47.24%	21.42%
9	2025-04-19	58.4	@ Bala Town	3	1107	16.85%	Penybont	2	1339	62.92%	20.22%
10	2025-02-01	57.4	Aberystwyth Town	3	952	19.42%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	1084	60.00%	20.59%
11	2024-10-09	55.8	Caernarfon Town	2	1184	11.44%	@ The New Saints	1	1428	69.53%	19.02%
12	2025-04-12	55.6	Aberystwyth Town	3	902	25.22%	@ Newtown	2	976	53.65%	21.13%
13	2025-02-22	55.2	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1183	27.99%	Penybont	2	1302	50.72%	21.29%
14	2024-10-26	54.7	@ Penybont	1	1307	57.65%	Bala Town	1	1197	21.53%	20.82%
15	2025-04-19	54.6	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	917	14.29%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1184	65.96%	19.75%
16	2024-10-15	54.5	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1158	24.37%	Penybont	1	1309	54.56%	21.07%
17	2025-03-29	54.5	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1257	48.51%	Caernarfon Town	1	1224	30.11%	21.38%
18	2024-08-16	54.4	@ Aberystwyth Town	1	1026	19.03%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1232	60.43%	20.54%
19	2024-12-03	54.4	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1225	56.64%	Caernarfon Town	1	1124	22.45%	20.91%
20	2025-01-14	54.4	@ Barry Town United	1	1113	23.49%	Haverfordwest County	1	1273	55.51%	21.00%
21	2025-02-08	54.4	@ Caernarfon Town	1	1187	31.06%	Haverfordwest County	1	1282	47.53%	21.41%
22	2024-09-24	54.3	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1195	58.39%	Barry Town United	1	1078	20.86%	20.75%
23	2024-09-24	54.3	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1216	55.68%	Newtown	1	1124	23.34%	20.99%
24	2025-04-11	54.3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1159	30.77%	Haverfordwest County	1	1255	47.82%	21.41%
25	2024-08-10	54.2	@ Barry Town United	1	1079	28.21%	Bala Town	1	1197	50.49%	21.30%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-09-14	24.4	@ The New Saints	4	1436	76.04%	Barry Town United	0	1087	6.86%	17.10%
2	2024-10-15	25.0	@ The New Saints	5	1419	74.82%	Flint Town United	0	1093	7.65%	17.53%
3	2024-10-12	25.6	Penybont	3	1299	73.07%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	933	8.84%	18.09%
4	2025-03-07	26.3	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1193	70.38%	Aberystwyth Town	0	937	10.80%	18.82%
5	2024-09-03	26.6	@ The New Saints	2	1425	78.59%	Aberystwyth Town	0	1026	5.34%	16.07%
6	2024-10-04	26.6	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1190	69.54%	Aberystwyth Town	0	946	11.44%	19.02%
7	2024-10-12	27.5	@ The New Saints	3	1407	68.94%	Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1171	11.90%	19.16%
8	2024-09-13	27.6	@ Bala Town	3	1197	66.27%	Aberystwyth Town	0	996	14.04%	19.69%
9	2024-11-23	27.8	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1158	65.57%	Aberystwyth Town	0	965	14.62%	19.82%
10	2025-03-22	28.3	The New Saints	6	1510	70.66%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1181	10.59%	18.75%
11	2025-04-19	28.8	@ Flint Town United	4	1086	59.33%	Newtown	0	960	20.01%	20.66%
12	2025-03-11	28.9	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1205	59.45%	Flint Town United	0	1077	19.90%	20.65%
13	2025-03-11	29.1	@ The New Saints	2	1504	74.80%	Caernarfon Town	0	1178	7.66%	17.54%
14	2024-09-20	29.7	Haverfordwest County	3	1174	59.12%	@ Aberystwyth Town	0	981	20.20%	20.68%
15	2024-12-04	30.1	@ Flint Town United	3	1059	57.62%	Aberystwyth Town	0	949	21.56%	20.83%
16	2025-04-19	30.3	@ Barry Town United	5	1156	55.55%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	1065	23.45%	21.00%
17	2024-09-27	30.4	The New Saints	6	1409	67.18%	@ Newtown	1	1127	13.30%	19.52%
18	2025-02-21	30.5	The New Saints	2	1479	68.97%	@ Bala Town	0	1174	11.88%	19.15%
19	2025-01-14	30.6	The New Saints	2	1429	66.87%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1151	13.55%	19.58%
20	2024-11-30	31.0	Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1200	55.05%	@ Newtown	0	1045	23.92%	21.03%
21	2024-12-26	31.2	Haverfordwest County	2	1235	62.23%	@ Newtown	0	1011	17.45%	20.32%
22	2024-08-26	31.4	@ Penybont	5	1225	64.53%	Aberystwyth Town	1	1044	15.48%	19.99%
23	2024-11-02	31.5	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	4	1023	50.60%	Aberystwyth Town	0	973	28.11%	21.30%
24	2025-01-14	31.5	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1133	53.15%	Flint Town United	0	1063	25.69%	21.16%
25	2025-01-01	31.6	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1248	72.26%	Aberystwyth Town	0	964	9.42%	18.33%