2025-26 Cymru Premier Season

192 games

Final

Champion

The New Saints

80 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Haverfordwest County

7.63 points above expected

48 points · 40.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Penybont

9.03 points below expected

41 points · 50.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	22	17	2	3	53	59	19	+40	49.06	+3.94
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	22	14	5	3	47	48	25	+23	34.93	+12.07
3	Penybont	22	11	5	6	38	36	31	+5	38.94	-0.94
4	Caernarfon Town	22	9	7	6	34	44	32	+12	35.72	-1.72
5	Barry Town United	22	7	9	6	30	33	25	+8	32.46	-2.46
6	Colwyn Bay	22	8	6	8	30	29	25	+4	24.31	+5.69
7	Cardiff Metropolitan	22	6	10	6	28	33	36	-3	28.39	-0.39
8	Briton Ferry Llansawel	22	6	7	9	25	32	40	-8	25.01	-0.01
9	Haverfordwest County	22	6	6	10	24	30	39	-9	29.98	-5.98
10	Bala Town	22	6	5	11	23	19	30	-11	26.03	-3.03
11	Flint Town United	22	5	6	11	21	34	48	-14	25.13	-4.13
12	Llanelli Town	22	2	2	18	8	12	59	-47	13.05	-5.05

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	32	26	2	4	80	81	25	+56	73.78	+6.22
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	32	16	10	6	58	61	38	+23	64.63	-6.63
3	Barry Town United	32	12	10	10	46	43	33	+10	41.96	+4.04
4	Caernarfon Town	32	12	9	11	45	56	47	+9	45.93	-0.93
5	Colwyn Bay	32	12	9	11	45	41	37	+4	38.06	+6.94
6	Penybont	32	11	8	13	41	39	49	-10	50.03	-9.03

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Haverfordwest County	32	14	6	12	48	48	43	+5	40.37	+7.63
2	Briton Ferry Llansawel	32	12	9	11	45	46	47	-1	40.53	+4.47
3	Cardiff Metropolitan	32	8	14	10	38	43	51	-8	45.99	-7.99
4	Flint Town United	32	8	11	13	35	48	59	-11	33.31	+1.69
5	Bala Town	32	8	8	16	32	33	45	-12	36.90	-4.90
6	Llanelli Town	32	3	4	25	13	17	82	-65	14.21	-1.21

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Haverfordwest County	48	40.37	+7.63
2	Colwyn Bay	45	38.06	+6.94
3	The New Saints	80	73.78	+6.22
4	Briton Ferry Llansawel	45	40.53	+4.47
5	Barry Town United	46	41.96	+4.04

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Penybont	41	50.03	-9.03
2	Cardiff Metropolitan	38	45.99	-7.99
3	Connahs Quay Nomads	58	64.63	-6.63
4	Bala Town	32	36.90	-4.90
5	Llanelli Town	13	14.21	-1.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connahs Quay Nomads	8	Nov 1 – Jan 3	1 in 404
2	The New Saints	10	Sep 6 – Nov 1	1 in 65
3	Llanelli Town	2	Sep 23 – Sep 26	1 in 44
4	Barry Town United	3	Feb 14 – Mar 3	1 in 32
5	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	Sep 28 – Oct 7	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haverfordwest County	5	Sep 6 – Sep 26	1 in 269
2	Caernarfon Town	3	Sep 28 – Oct 7	1 in 53
3	Llanelli Town	7	Aug 8 – Sep 13	1 in 27
4	Bala Town	4	Sep 26 – Oct 10	1 in 22
5	Penybont	4	Feb 21 – Mar 21	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Connahs Quay Nomads	17	Sep 27 – Feb 14	1 in 118
2	Flint Town United	7	Jan 23 – Mar 21	1 in 34
3	Colwyn Bay	5	Aug 25 – Sep 20	1 in 32
4	Llanelli Town	3	Sep 20 – Sep 26	1 in 16
5	Barry Town United	7	Oct 11 – Dec 26	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cardiff Metropolitan	10	Dec 16 – Mar 16	1 in 264
2	Connahs Quay Nomads	6	Jan 13 – Mar 3	1 in 80
3	Caernarfon Town	5	Nov 8 – Dec 27	1 in 41
4	Penybont	11	Jan 13 – Apr 18	1 in 35
5	Briton Ferry Llansawel	7	Aug 25 – Oct 3	1 in 30

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1377	80	-8	12	10.9	+1.1
Connahs Quay Nomads	1227	58	+6	8	8.4	-0.4
Haverfordwest County	1086	48	+27	12	9.1	+2.9
Barry Town United	1141	46	-1	7	6.5	+0.5
Briton Ferry Llansawel	1038	45	+39	10	7.2	+2.8
Colwyn Bay	1064	45	+45	8	5.0	+3.0
Caernarfon Town	1118	45	+2	6	5.8	+0.2
Penybont	1012	41	-44	1	4.5	-3.5
Cardiff Metropolitan	978	38	-29	7	8.0	-1.0
Flint Town United	948	35	-27	3	7.1	-4.1
Bala Town	940	32	+28	7	6.1	+0.9
Llanelli Town	698	13	-36	3	2.9	+0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BT	BTU	BFL	CT	CM	CB	CQN	FTU	HC	LT	PEN	TNS
Bala Town	—	0-1-1 2.28	0-1-3 4.89	0-0-2 1.75	0-2-2 4.43	2-0-0 3.11	1-0-1 2.20	1-2-1 5.13	1-0-3 4.10	3-1-0 7.97	0-1-1 1.75	0-0-2 0.89
Barry Town United	1-1-0 3.18	—	0-0-2 3.66	2-1-1 5.02	1-1-0 3.09	1-1-2 6.95	1-2-1 4.27	0-2-0 3.56	2-0-0 3.28	2-0-0 4.35	2-1-1 5.85	0-1-3 2.75
Briton Ferry Llansawel	3-1-0 6.02	2-0-0 1.81	—	0-0-2 1.74	2-2-0 5.11	0-1-1 3.04	0-0-2 1.70	0-3-1 5.88	1-0-3 4.78	3-0-1 8.47	0-2-0 1.48	1-0-1 0.93
Caernarfon Town	2-0-0 3.73	1-1-2 5.88	2-0-0 3.74	—	0-1-1 3.61	2-0-2 6.47	1-2-1 4.39	1-1-0 3.64	0-2-0 3.32	1-1-0 4.46	2-1-1 5.33	0-0-4 2.43
Cardiff Metropolitan	2-2-0 6.48	0-1-1 2.36	0-2-2 5.79	1-1-0 1.87	—	0-1-1 3.21	0-1-1 2.29	1-2-1 6.28	0-2-2 5.29	3-1-0 8.79	0-1-1 1.79	1-0-1 0.99
Colwyn Bay	0-0-2 2.35	2-1-1 3.98	1-1-0 2.42	2-0-2 4.45	1-1-0 2.24	—	0-3-1 3.01	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 2.31	1-1-0 4.20	2-1-1 4.20	1-1-2 1.82
Connahs Quay Nomads	1-0-1 3.25	1-2-1 6.66	2-0-0 3.79	1-2-1 6.55	1-1-0 3.17	1-3-0 7.99	—	2-0-0 3.70	1-1-0 3.17	2-0-0 4.58	3-1-0 6.20	1-0-3 3.35
Flint Town United	1-2-1 5.77	0-2-0 1.91	1-3-0 5.02	0-1-1 1.83	1-2-1 4.63	1-0-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.79	—	1-1-2 4.44	3-0-1 8.14	0-0-2 1.72	0-0-2 0.94
Haverfordwest County	3-0-1 6.83	0-0-2 2.17	3-0-1 6.12	0-2-0 2.14	2-2-0 5.61	1-0-1 3.15	0-1-1 2.28	2-1-1 6.49	—	3-0-1 8.93	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 1.34
Llanelli Town	0-1-3 3.02	0-0-2 1.20	1-0-3 2.58	0-1-1 1.11	0-1-3 2.30	0-1-1 1.32	0-0-2 1.01	1-0-3 2.87	1-0-3 2.19	—	0-0-2 0.94	0-0-2 0.51
Penybont	1-1-0 3.73	1-1-2 5.06	0-2-0 4.02	1-1-2 5.57	1-1-0 3.69	1-1-2 6.74	0-1-3 4.75	2-0-0 3.76	2-0-0 3.58	2-0-0 4.65	—	0-0-4 3.16
The New Saints	2-0-0 4.72	3-1-0 8.27	1-0-1 4.66	4-0-0 8.64	1-0-1 4.58	2-1-1 9.37	3-0-1 7.61	2-0-0 4.65	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 5.22	4-0-0 7.86	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+9.6
Allowed	0.76	-9.6
Differential	0.95	+5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	7.03%	6.51%	2.86%	2.34%	1.82%	28.91%
1	7.03%	10.42%	6.25%	4.17%	1.04%	0.52%	29.43%
2	6.51%	6.25%	6.77%	1.56%	1.30%	0.78%	23.18%
3	2.86%	4.17%	1.56%	0.52%	0.52%	—	9.64%
4	2.34%	1.04%	1.30%	0.52%	—	0.26%	5.47%
5+	1.82%	0.52%	0.78%	—	0.26%	—	3.39%
Total	28.91%	29.43%	23.18%	9.64%	5.47%	3.39%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.45	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.36	2.05
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	3.12%	18.75%	3.12%	3.12%	—	37.50%
1	15.62%	9.38%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	43.75%
2	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	31.25%	15.62%	40.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	1.41	-0.38
SD	1.23	1.19	1.84
CV	1.19	0.84	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	12.50%	—	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
1	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	34.38%
2	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	18.75%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
4	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	40.62%	34.38%	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.03	+0.31
SD	1.38	1.15	1.84
CV	1.03	1.11	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
1	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
2	9.38%	9.38%	12.50%	—	3.12%	3.12%	37.50%
3	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	28.12%	34.38%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.47	-0.03
SD	1.13	1.27	1.66
CV	0.79	0.86	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	18.75%
1	3.12%	12.50%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	12.50%	3.12%	12.50%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
3	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
Total	21.88%	28.12%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.47	+0.28
SD	1.52	1.11	2.02
CV	0.87	0.75	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	—	25.00%
1	—	21.88%	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	9.38%	15.62%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
3	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	9.38%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	43.75%	25.00%	9.38%	9.38%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.59	-0.25
SD	1.07	1.13	1.65
CV	0.79	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.38%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	34.38%
1	9.38%	12.50%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	—	15.62%
3	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
5+	—	—	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%
Total	28.12%	43.75%	18.75%	3.12%	6.25%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.16	+0.12
SD	1.33	1.08	1.56
CV	1.03	0.93	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
1	3.12%	15.62%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
2	3.12%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	9.38%	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
4	3.12%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	9.38%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	40.62%	25.00%	9.38%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.19	+0.72
SD	1.23	0.93	1.57
CV	0.64	0.78	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	31.25%
1	—	12.50%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	21.88%
2	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	28.12%
3	—	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	6.25%
4	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	21.88%	28.12%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.84	-0.34
SD	1.41	1.55	2.10
CV	0.94	0.84	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	9.38%	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	21.88%
1	18.75%	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
2	12.50%	—	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	31.25%
3	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	43.75%	15.62%	12.50%	21.88%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.34	+0.16
SD	1.27	1.47	2.16
CV	0.85	1.10	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	56.25%
1	3.12%	6.25%	9.38%	9.38%	—	6.25%	34.38%
2	—	6.25%	—	—	3.12%	—	9.38%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.38%	25.00%	21.88%	15.62%	9.38%	18.75%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.53	2.56	-2.03
SD	0.67	1.81	1.99
CV	1.26	0.71	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.62%	6.25%	12.50%	—	3.12%	3.12%	40.62%
1	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	28.12%
2	3.12%	9.38%	—	—	—	3.12%	15.62%
3	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
4	3.12%	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	9.38%
5+	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
Total	34.38%	25.00%	21.88%	6.25%	3.12%	9.38%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.53	-0.31
SD	1.43	1.72	2.15
CV	1.17	1.12	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
1	9.38%	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	15.62%
2	15.62%	15.62%	—	3.12%	—	—	34.38%
3	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
4	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	9.38%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	53.12%	25.00%	12.50%	9.38%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.53	0.78	+1.75
SD	1.67	1.01	2.13
CV	0.66	1.29	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1377	80	49.06	+30.94	78.0%	36	41	45	49	53	56	60
Connahs Quay Nomads	1227	58	34.93	+23.07	95.0%	18	26	31	34	39	45	50
Barry Town United	1141	46	32.46	+13.54	37.0%	17	21	28	34	37	41	44
Caernarfon Town	1118	45	35.72	+9.28	44.0%	23	28	32	35	39	44	48
Haverfordwest County	1086	48	29.98	+18.02	18.0%	16	21	26	31	34	37	43
Colwyn Bay	1064	45	24.31	+20.69	88.0%	14	16	21	24	28	31	39
Briton Ferry Llansawel	1038	45	25.01	+19.99	60.0%	15	17	21	24	28	34	43
Penybont	1012	41	38.94	+2.06	49.0%	27	31	34	39	42	48	57
Cardiff Metropolitan	978	38	28.39	+9.61	56.0%	15	21	25	28	31	38	42
Flint Town United	948	35	25.13	+9.87	27.0%	12	15	21	25	29	34	39
Bala Town	940	32	26.03	+5.97	33.0%	12	16	22	26	30	35	40
Llanelli Town	698	13	13.05	-0.05	20.0%	4	5	9	13	17	21	25

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5.5% * Slight Edge: 5.5% to 9% * Clear Edge: 9% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-2.08%

No Edge

35.94%26.04%38.02%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -7.24 Elo pts.

180 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.07 goals

Neutral

-2-0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.53 * Runaway: 0.53 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.3

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

87%

The New Saints, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.69/gm

Runaway

00.241/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.37 * Some Luck: 4.37 to 6.56 * Lucky: 6.56 to 8.74 * Wild Swing: 8.74 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.92 points

Some Luck

05.4714

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Off

01.574

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

Connahs Quay Nomads

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

18.00%

Haverfordwest County

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.18 * Even: 0.18 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2 * Moderate Separation: 2 to 2.15 * Strong Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 69.5% * Slight Edge: 69.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 74% * Wide Edge: 74% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 97% * Dominant: 97% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Balanced

00.180.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 152.59

2.13

Moderate Separation

122.33

Interquartile Edge

68%

Even

50%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

97%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Some Drama

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Rare

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.38 * Notable Separation: 0.38 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.49 * Some Carryover: 0.49 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.71 * Near-Lock: 0.71 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21% * As Expected: 21% to 23.5% * Upset-Prone: 23.5% to 26% * Very Upset-Prone: 26% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21.5% * Very Shaky: 21.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.81

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.62

Strong Carryover

00.490.611

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.48

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.02

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.128

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	87.00%	12.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	1.00%	20.00%	9.00%	23.00%	21.00%	12.00%	5.00%	5.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Barry Town United	1.00%	12.00%	15.00%	19.00%	11.00%	10.00%	11.00%	7.00%	4.00%	7.00%	3.00%	—
Caernarfon Town	2.00%	17.00%	28.00%	17.00%	13.00%	8.00%	10.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Colwyn Bay	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	9.00%	7.00%	14.00%	21.00%	19.00%	20.00%	2.00%
Penybont	9.00%	32.00%	23.00%	13.00%	12.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Haverfordwest County	—	2.00%	11.00%	9.00%	13.00%	16.00%	13.00%	11.00%	16.00%	5.00%	4.00%	—
Briton Ferry Llansawel	—	3.00%	1.00%	5.00%	—	11.00%	9.00%	14.00%	11.00%	21.00%	21.00%	4.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	12.00%	8.00%	15.00%	23.00%	13.00%	10.00%	6.00%	1.00%
Flint Town United	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	12.00%	13.00%	12.00%	11.00%	18.00%	19.00%	6.00%
Bala Town	—	—	5.00%	3.00%	9.00%	8.00%	13.00%	13.00%	16.00%	15.00%	14.00%	4.00%
Llanelli Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	12.00%	83.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
The New Saints	91.00%	8.97%	0.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	8.97%	88.41%	2.46%	0.15%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	—	0.05%	8.10%	22.90%	45.57%	23.38%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	—	0.47%	24.55%	43.57%	24.46%	6.95%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Colwyn Bay	—	—	1.64%	7.64%	22.35%	68.37%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	0.03%	2.10%	63.22%	25.74%	7.61%	1.30%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.68%	28.71%	28.88%	19.31%	8.42%	—
Briton Ferry Llansawel	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.95%	31.07%	27.46%	17.78%	7.73%	0.01%
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	—	—	—	—	—	62.94%	22.00%	10.07%	4.01%	0.98%	—
Flint Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.29%	4.73%	11.05%	24.08%	58.70%	0.15%
Bala Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.14%	13.49%	22.54%	34.82%	23.98%	0.03%
Llanelli Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.19%	99.81%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Barry Town United	99.00%	1.00%
Caernarfon Town	99.00%	1.00%
Haverfordwest County	97.00%	3.00%
Cardiff Metropolitan	96.00%	4.00%
Colwyn Bay	87.00%	13.00%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	81.00%	19.00%
Bala Town	76.00%	24.00%
Flint Town United	64.00%	36.00%
Llanelli Town	1.00%	99.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Barry Town United	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Colwyn Bay	100%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	99.02%	0.98%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	92.26%	7.74%
Haverfordwest County	91.58%	8.42%
Bala Town	75.99%	24.01%
Flint Town United	41.15%	58.85%
Llanelli Town	—	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2025-08-08	Flint Town United	D 1-1	51.5	1028	1018	37.62%	27.62%	34.76%	+0.02	-0.2	1
2025-08-08	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	51.5	1018	1028	34.76%	27.62%	37.62%	-0.02	+0.2	1
2025-08-08	Penybont	L 0-1	40.5	1107	1144	31.07%	27.51%	41.42%	-0.25	-10.8	0
2025-08-08	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	40.5	1144	1107	41.42%	27.51%	31.07%	+0.25	+10.8	3
2025-08-08	Barry Town United	L 0-2	32.6	895	1066	17.17%	25.33%	57.50%	-0.99	-12.4	0
2025-08-08	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-0	32.6	1066	895	57.50%	25.33%	17.17%	+0.99	+12.4	3
2025-08-09	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	56.8	1041	1084	30.34%	27.48%	42.18%	-0.28	+0.6	1
2025-08-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	56.8	1084	1041	42.18%	27.48%	30.34%	+0.28	-0.6	1
2025-08-10	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	51.9	928	1068	19.78%	26.07%	54.15%	-0.82	+2.4	1
2025-08-10	@ Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	51.9	1068	928	54.15%	26.07%	19.78%	+0.82	-2.4	1
2025-08-10	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-3	44.5	1261	988	66.86%	22.26%	10.88%	+1.47	-54.6	0
2025-08-10	@ The New Saints	W 3-0	44.5	988	1261	10.88%	22.26%	66.86%	-1.47	+54.6	3
2025-08-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.5	1043	1042	36.37%	27.63%	36.00%	-0.03	-0.0	4
2025-08-15	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	51.5	1042	1043	36.00%	27.63%	36.37%	+0.03	+0.0	2
2025-08-16	Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	52.0	1078	931	55.02%	25.89%	19.09%	+0.78	-2.5	4
2025-08-16	@ Barry Town United	D 1-1	52.0	931	1078	19.09%	25.89%	55.02%	-0.78	+2.5	2
2025-08-16	Llanelli Town	W 6-1	32.1	1083	883	60.46%	24.53%	15.01%	+1.07	+21.1	4
2025-08-16	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-6	32.1	883	1083	15.01%	24.53%	60.46%	-1.07	-21.1	0
2025-08-16	The New Saints	L 0-2	37.0	1154	1207	29.17%	27.40%	43.43%	-0.33	-19.3	3
2025-08-16	@ Penybont	W 2-0	37.0	1207	1154	43.43%	27.40%	29.17%	+0.33	+19.3	3
2025-08-22	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	38.2	1027	933	48.83%	26.90%	24.27%	+0.48	+8.9	4
2025-08-22	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	38.2	933	1027	24.27%	26.90%	48.83%	-0.48	-8.9	2
2025-08-22	Penybont	L 2-3	49.5	1076	1135	28.27%	27.34%	44.39%	-0.37	-9.0	4
2025-08-22	@ Barry Town United	W 3-2	49.5	1135	1076	44.39%	27.34%	28.27%	+0.37	+9.0	6
2025-08-22	Caernarfon Town	L 2-5	41.4	1018	1105	25.07%	27.01%	47.92%	-0.52	-18.2	1
2025-08-22	@ Flint Town United	W 5-2	41.4	1105	1018	47.92%	27.01%	25.07%	+0.52	+18.2	7
2025-08-22	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	56.8	1096	1042	43.68%	27.39%	28.93%	+0.26	-0.7	1
2025-08-22	@ Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	56.8	1042	1096	28.93%	27.39%	43.68%	-0.26	+0.7	3
2025-08-22	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 2-4	41.7	862	1043	16.38%	25.06%	58.56%	-1.05	-9.2	0
2025-08-22	@ Llanelli Town	W 4-2	41.7	1043	862	58.56%	25.06%	16.38%	+1.05	+9.2	7
2025-08-22	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 3-0	30.9	1226	1066	56.36%	25.60%	18.04%	+0.85	+18.8	6
2025-08-22	@ The New Saints	L 0-3	30.9	1066	1226	18.04%	25.60%	56.36%	-0.85	-18.8	1
2025-08-25	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.2	1052	1095	30.34%	27.48%	42.19%	-0.28	-10.6	7
2025-08-25	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 1-0	40.2	1095	1052	42.19%	27.48%	30.34%	+0.28	+10.6	4
2025-08-25	Bala Town	W 2-0	35.5	1123	1036	47.88%	27.02%	25.10%	+0.44	+17.2	10
2025-08-25	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	35.5	1036	1123	25.10%	27.02%	47.88%	-0.44	-17.2	4
2025-08-25	Barry Town United	D 1-1	51.5	1043	1067	32.78%	27.58%	39.65%	-0.18	+0.4	4
2025-08-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.5	1067	1043	39.65%	27.58%	32.78%	+0.18	-0.4	5
2025-08-25	The New Saints	D 1-1	53.6	924	1245	8.81%	20.59%	70.60%	-1.82	+4.5	3
2025-08-25	@ Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	53.6	1245	924	70.60%	20.59%	8.81%	+1.82	-4.5	7
2025-08-25	Flint Town United	W 3-2	49.9	1047	1000	42.81%	27.44%	29.75%	+0.22	+9.3	4
2025-08-25	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-3	49.9	1000	1047	29.75%	27.44%	42.81%	-0.22	-9.3	1
2025-08-25	Llanelli Town	W 2-0	29.3	1144	852	68.39%	21.61%	10.00%	+1.58	+7.1	9
2025-08-25	@ Penybont	L 0-2	29.3	852	1144	10.00%	21.61%	68.39%	-1.58	-7.2	0
2025-08-30	The New Saints	D 0-0	48.3	1066	1240	16.97%	25.27%	57.77%	-1.00	+3.2	6
2025-08-30	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	48.3	1240	1066	57.77%	25.27%	16.97%	+1.00	-3.2	8
2025-08-30	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	57.0	929	1042	22.33%	26.60%	51.07%	-0.67	+1.4	4
2025-08-30	@ Colwyn Bay	D 2-2	57.0	1042	929	51.07%	26.60%	22.33%	+0.67	-1.5	8
2025-08-30	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-2	50.5	990	1043	29.08%	27.40%	43.53%	-0.33	+20.3	4
2025-08-30	@ Flint Town United	L 2-4	50.5	1043	990	43.53%	27.40%	29.08%	+0.33	-20.2	4
2025-08-30	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	51.5	1106	1140	31.45%	27.53%	41.02%	-0.23	+0.6	5
2025-08-30	@ Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	51.5	1140	1106	41.02%	27.53%	31.45%	+0.23	-0.6	11
2025-08-30	Bala Town	L 0-1	35.5	845	1019	16.95%	25.26%	57.78%	-1.00	-6.5	0
2025-08-30	@ Llanelli Town	W 1-0	35.5	1019	845	57.78%	25.26%	16.95%	+1.00	+6.5	7
2025-08-30	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	45.7	1151	1056	48.94%	26.89%	24.17%	+0.49	-15.3	9
2025-08-30	@ Penybont	W 1-0	45.7	1056	1151	24.17%	26.89%	48.94%	-0.49	+15.3	7
2025-09-02	Bala Town	L 1-3	46.1	1072	1026	42.61%	27.45%	29.93%	+0.21	-22.3	7
2025-09-02	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 3-1	46.1	1026	1072	29.93%	27.45%	42.61%	-0.21	+22.3	10
2025-09-06	Penybont	D 0-0	47.7	1048	1136	24.92%	26.99%	48.09%	-0.53	+1.7	11
2025-09-06	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	47.7	1136	1048	48.09%	26.99%	24.92%	+0.53	-1.7	10
2025-09-06	Colwyn Bay	L 1-4	45.3	1023	930	48.61%	26.93%	24.46%	+0.47	-35.1	4
2025-09-06	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-1	45.3	930	1023	24.46%	26.93%	48.61%	-0.47	+35.1	7
2025-09-06	Flint Town United	L 0-5	29.9	839	1010	17.12%	25.32%	57.57%	-0.99	-28.8	0
2025-09-06	@ Llanelli Town	W 5-0	29.9	1010	839	57.57%	25.32%	17.12%	+0.99	+28.8	7
2025-09-06	Haverfordwest County	W 5-0	31.3	1237	1106	53.14%	26.26%	20.60%	+0.69	+34.0	11
2025-09-06	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	31.3	1106	1237	20.60%	26.26%	53.14%	-0.69	-34.0	5
2025-09-07	Barry Town United	W 3-1	41.4	1139	1070	45.74%	27.23%	27.03%	+0.35	+15.8	14
2025-09-07	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-3	41.4	1070	1139	27.03%	27.23%	45.74%	-0.35	-15.8	6
2025-09-13	Bala Town	W 4-0	35.9	1054	1050	36.81%	27.63%	35.56%	-0.02	+42.6	9
2025-09-13	@ Barry Town United	L 0-4	35.9	1050	1054	35.56%	27.63%	36.81%	+0.02	-42.6	11
2025-09-13	Caernarfon Town	L 2-5	40.4	1040	1155	22.12%	26.56%	51.32%	-0.68	-16.4	8
2025-09-13	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 5-2	40.4	1155	1040	51.32%	26.56%	22.12%	+0.68	+16.4	17
2025-09-13	Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	40.8	965	1072	22.94%	26.70%	50.36%	-0.63	+42.8	10
2025-09-13	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-3	40.8	1072	965	50.36%	26.70%	22.94%	+0.63	-42.8	5
2025-09-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.5	1049	988	44.69%	27.31%	27.99%	+0.30	-1.1	8
2025-09-13	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	51.5	988	1049	27.99%	27.31%	44.69%	-0.30	+1.1	5
2025-09-13	Flint Town United	W 5-0	32.5	1134	1039	48.93%	26.89%	24.18%	+0.49	+39.0	13
2025-09-13	@ Penybont	L 0-5	32.5	1039	1134	24.18%	26.89%	48.93%	-0.49	-39.0	7
2025-09-13	Llanelli Town	W 6-0	23.8	1271	810	79.87%	15.45%	4.68%	+2.52	+8.3	14
2025-09-13	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	23.8	810	1271	4.68%	15.45%	79.87%	-2.52	-8.3	0
2025-09-19	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	56.7	1007	1024	33.81%	27.60%	38.58%	-0.13	+0.2	12
2025-09-19	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	56.7	1024	1007	38.58%	27.60%	33.81%	+0.13	-0.2	9
2025-09-19	The New Saints	L 1-3	34.7	989	1279	10.05%	21.65%	68.30%	-1.65	-6.2	5
2025-09-19	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	34.7	1279	989	68.30%	21.65%	10.05%	+1.65	+6.2	17
2025-09-20	Penybont	L 1-2	46.9	1172	1173	35.94%	27.63%	36.43%	-0.05	-11.3	17
2025-09-20	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	46.9	1173	1172	36.43%	27.63%	35.94%	+0.05	+11.3	16
2025-09-20	Barry Town United	D 0-0	47.7	1000	1096	24.05%	26.87%	49.08%	-0.57	+1.9	8
2025-09-20	@ Flint Town United	D 0-0	47.7	1096	1000	49.08%	26.87%	24.05%	+0.57	-1.9	10
2025-09-20	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	43.5	1029	1048	33.54%	27.60%	38.87%	-0.14	-18.6	5
2025-09-20	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	43.5	1048	1029	38.87%	27.60%	33.54%	+0.14	+18.6	11
2025-09-20	Colwyn Bay	D 0-0	48.5	802	1008	14.62%	24.36%	61.02%	-1.19	+3.7	1
2025-09-20	@ Llanelli Town	D 0-0	48.5	1008	802	61.02%	24.36%	14.62%	+1.19	-3.7	11
2025-09-23	Llanelli Town	L 1-2	53.6	1024	805	62.10%	24.02%	13.88%	+1.17	-17.7	9
2025-09-23	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	53.6	805	1024	13.88%	24.02%	62.10%	-1.17	+17.7	4
2025-09-23	Penybont	L 0-4	28.8	983	1185	14.93%	24.50%	60.58%	-1.16	-20.5	5
2025-09-23	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 4-0	28.8	1185	983	60.58%	24.50%	14.93%	+1.16	+20.5	19
2025-09-23	Bala Town	L 0-1	41.9	1005	1007	35.81%	27.63%	36.56%	-0.05	-12.0	11
2025-09-23	@ Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	41.9	1007	1005	36.56%	27.63%	35.81%	+0.05	+12.0	15
2025-09-23	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	43.2	1067	1160	24.34%	26.91%	48.74%	-0.56	-8.4	11
2025-09-23	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	43.2	1160	1067	48.74%	26.91%	24.34%	+0.56	+8.4	20
2025-09-23	Barry Town United	L 2-3	48.5	1011	1095	25.39%	27.05%	47.56%	-0.51	-8.2	5
2025-09-23	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	48.5	1095	1011	47.56%	27.05%	25.39%	+0.51	+8.2	13
2025-09-23	Flint Town United	W 4-2	39.0	1285	1002	67.72%	21.90%	10.38%	+1.53	+5.8	20
2025-09-23	@ The New Saints	L 2-4	39.0	1002	1285	10.38%	21.90%	67.72%	-1.53	-5.8	8
2025-09-26	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.9	1019	1291	10.91%	22.29%	66.81%	-1.55	-7.8	15
2025-09-26	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	29.9	1291	1019	66.81%	22.29%	10.91%	+1.55	+7.9	23
2025-09-26	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	47.9	823	1003	16.53%	25.12%	58.36%	-1.04	+17.8	7
2025-09-26	@ Llanelli Town	L 0-1	47.9	1003	823	58.36%	25.12%	16.53%	+1.04	-17.8	5
2025-09-27	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	47.6	1103	1058	42.41%	27.46%	30.13%	+0.21	-0.9	14
2025-09-27	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	47.6	1058	1103	30.13%	27.46%	42.41%	-0.21	+0.9	12
2025-09-27	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-1	47.3	996	1006	34.84%	27.62%	37.54%	-0.09	+11.7	11
2025-09-27	@ Flint Town United	L 1-2	47.3	1006	996	37.54%	27.62%	34.84%	+0.09	-11.7	9
2025-09-27	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	34.4	1205	993	61.57%	24.19%	14.24%	+1.14	+5.5	22
2025-09-27	@ Penybont	L 0-1	34.4	993	1205	14.24%	24.19%	61.57%	-1.14	-5.5	11
2025-09-28	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	43.3	1169	962	61.01%	24.36%	14.62%	+1.11	-50.6	20
2025-09-28	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-0	43.3	962	1169	14.62%	24.36%	61.01%	-1.11	+50.6	8
2025-10-03	Penybont	D 0-0	48.6	994	1211	13.99%	24.08%	61.93%	-1.24	+3.8	10
2025-10-03	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 0-0	48.6	1211	994	61.93%	24.08%	13.99%	+1.24	-3.8	23
2025-10-04	Bala Town	W 2-0	38.9	1013	1011	36.37%	27.63%	36.00%	-0.03	+22.6	11
2025-10-04	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	38.9	1011	1013	36.00%	27.63%	36.37%	+0.03	-22.6	15
2025-10-04	Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	46.7	987	1118	20.59%	26.25%	53.16%	-0.77	+16.4	14
2025-10-04	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	46.7	1118	987	53.16%	26.25%	20.59%	+0.77	-16.4	20
2025-10-04	Llanelli Town	W 3-0	29.1	1059	841	62.13%	24.01%	13.86%	+1.17	+14.6	15
2025-10-04	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	29.1	841	1059	13.86%	24.01%	62.13%	-1.17	-14.6	7
2025-10-04	Flint Town United	W 3-1	45.2	985	1008	32.91%	27.58%	39.51%	-0.17	+21.0	8
2025-10-04	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-3	45.2	1008	985	39.51%	27.58%	32.91%	+0.17	-21.0	11
2025-10-04	Barry Town United	W 4-0	29.1	1299	1102	60.11%	24.63%	15.26%	+1.05	+21.0	26
2025-10-04	@ The New Saints	L 0-4	29.1	1102	1299	15.26%	24.63%	60.11%	-1.05	-21.0	14
2025-10-07	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	40.8	989	1074	25.24%	27.03%	47.73%	-0.51	-14.9	15
2025-10-07	@ Bala Town	W 3-1	40.8	1074	989	47.73%	27.03%	25.24%	+0.51	+14.9	18
2025-10-07	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	45.2	1081	998	47.44%	27.06%	25.50%	+0.42	-14.9	14
2025-10-07	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	45.2	998	1081	25.50%	27.06%	47.44%	-0.42	+14.9	13
2025-10-07	The New Saints	L 1-3	36.7	1102	1320	13.86%	24.01%	62.13%	-1.25	-8.7	20
2025-10-07	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-1	36.7	1320	1102	62.13%	24.01%	13.86%	+1.25	+8.7	29
2025-10-07	Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	41.3	987	1004	33.87%	27.61%	38.53%	-0.13	-11.5	11
2025-10-07	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	41.3	1004	987	38.53%	27.61%	33.87%	+0.13	+11.5	17
2025-10-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-3	36.7	826	1035	14.46%	24.29%	61.24%	-1.20	-9.1	7
2025-10-07	@ Llanelli Town	W 3-1	36.7	1035	826	61.24%	24.29%	14.46%	+1.20	+9.1	14
2025-10-07	Haverfordwest County	W 2-1	39.6	1207	1006	60.48%	24.53%	15.00%	+1.08	+5.4	26
2025-10-07	@ Penybont	L 1-2	39.6	1006	1207	15.00%	24.53%	60.48%	-1.08	-5.4	8
2025-10-10	Bala Town	W 2-0	37.9	1000	974	39.95%	27.57%	32.48%	+0.11	+21.0	11
2025-10-10	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	37.9	974	1000	32.48%	27.57%	39.95%	-0.11	-21.0	15
2025-10-11	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	56.8	1066	1093	32.45%	27.57%	39.98%	-0.19	+0.4	15
2025-10-11	@ Barry Town United	D 2-2	56.8	1093	1066	39.98%	27.57%	32.45%	+0.19	-0.4	21
2025-10-11	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	33.7	1013	1089	26.30%	27.15%	46.55%	-0.46	-25.9	13
2025-10-11	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-0	33.7	1089	1013	46.55%	27.15%	26.30%	+0.46	+25.9	21
2025-10-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	47.5	1015	1044	32.11%	27.56%	40.33%	-0.20	+0.6	18
2025-10-11	@ Colwyn Bay	D 0-0	47.5	1044	1015	40.33%	27.56%	32.11%	+0.20	-0.6	15
2025-10-11	Llanelli Town	W 4-0	30.0	976	817	56.19%	25.64%	18.17%	+0.84	+24.7	14
2025-10-11	@ Flint Town United	L 0-4	30.0	817	976	18.17%	25.64%	56.19%	-0.84	-24.7	7
2025-10-11	Penybont	W 6-2	38.3	1329	1212	51.53%	26.53%	21.94%	+0.61	+20.6	32
2025-10-11	@ The New Saints	L 2-6	38.3	1212	1329	21.94%	26.53%	51.53%	-0.61	-20.6	26
2025-10-24	The New Saints	L 0-4	21.5	792	1349	2.98%	12.21%	84.81%	-3.13	-3.4	7
2025-10-24	@ Llanelli Town	W 4-0	21.5	1349	792	84.81%	12.21%	2.98%	+3.13	+3.3	35
2025-10-25	Barry Town United	D 0-0	47.8	953	1066	22.23%	26.58%	51.19%	-0.67	+2.2	16
2025-10-25	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	47.8	1066	953	51.19%	26.58%	22.23%	+0.67	-2.2	16
2025-10-25	Colwyn Bay	L 0-2	37.8	987	1016	32.21%	27.56%	40.23%	-0.20	-20.9	13
2025-10-25	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	37.8	1016	987	40.23%	27.56%	32.21%	+0.20	+20.9	21
2025-10-25	Flint Town United	W 4-1	40.0	1044	1000	42.27%	27.47%	30.26%	+0.20	+24.4	18
2025-10-25	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-4	40.0	1000	1044	30.26%	27.47%	42.27%	-0.20	-24.4	14
2025-10-25	Haverfordwest County	D 3-3	61.1	1115	1021	48.75%	26.91%	24.34%	+0.48	-1.0	22
2025-10-25	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 3-3	61.1	1021	1115	24.34%	26.91%	48.75%	-0.48	+1.0	12
2025-10-25	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	42.8	1192	1093	49.43%	26.83%	23.74%	+0.51	-29.0	26
2025-10-25	@ Penybont	W 2-0	42.8	1093	1192	23.74%	26.83%	49.43%	-0.51	+29.0	24
2025-10-31	Llanelli Town	W 1-0	35.8	955	789	56.97%	25.46%	17.57%	+0.88	+6.7	19
2025-10-31	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	35.8	789	955	17.57%	25.46%	56.97%	-0.88	-6.7	7
2025-11-01	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 4-1	35.9	1122	966	55.86%	25.71%	18.43%	+0.82	+16.2	27
2025-11-01	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-4	35.9	966	1122	18.43%	25.71%	55.86%	-0.82	-16.2	13
2025-11-01	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	35.0	1068	1114	29.98%	27.46%	42.57%	-0.29	-28.7	18
2025-11-01	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-0	35.0	1114	1068	42.57%	27.46%	29.98%	+0.29	+28.7	25
2025-11-01	Barry Town United	L 1-4	40.7	1036	1064	32.31%	27.56%	40.12%	-0.19	-25.6	21
2025-11-01	@ Colwyn Bay	W 4-1	40.7	1064	1036	40.12%	27.56%	32.31%	+0.19	+25.6	19
2025-11-01	Penybont	L 3-4	48.1	976	1162	16.01%	24.93%	59.07%	-1.08	-5.4	14
2025-11-01	@ Flint Town United	W 4-3	48.1	1162	976	59.07%	24.93%	16.01%	+1.08	+5.4	29
2025-11-01	The New Saints	L 2-3	41.5	1022	1353	8.42%	20.22%	71.36%	-1.87	-2.8	12
2025-11-01	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	41.5	1353	1022	71.36%	20.22%	8.42%	+1.87	+2.8	38
2025-11-07	Bala Town	W 2-0	39.5	950	962	34.53%	27.62%	37.85%	-0.10	+23.5	16
2025-11-07	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-2	39.5	962	950	37.85%	27.62%	34.53%	+0.10	-23.5	19
2025-11-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 2-3	60.2	1356	1039	70.29%	20.74%	8.97%	+1.71	-18.5	38
2025-11-07	@ The New Saints	W 3-2	60.2	1039	1356	8.97%	20.74%	70.29%	-1.71	+18.6	21
2025-11-08	Flint Town United	D 0-0	47.8	1090	971	51.84%	26.48%	21.69%	+0.62	-2.3	20
2025-11-08	@ Barry Town United	D 0-0	47.8	971	1090	21.69%	26.48%	51.84%	-0.62	+2.3	15
2025-11-08	Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	57.1	1138	1020	51.71%	26.50%	21.79%	+0.62	-1.5	28
2025-11-08	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	57.1	1020	1138	21.79%	26.50%	51.71%	-0.62	+1.5	13
2025-11-08	Llanelli Town	W 3-1	36.2	1011	782	63.04%	23.71%	13.25%	+1.23	+8.3	24
2025-11-08	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-3	36.2	782	1011	13.25%	23.71%	63.04%	-1.23	-8.3	7
2025-11-08	Penybont	W 4-0	37.2	1142	1168	32.64%	27.57%	39.79%	-0.18	+46.3	28
2025-11-08	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-4	37.2	1168	1142	39.79%	27.57%	32.64%	+0.18	-46.3	29
2025-11-14	The New Saints	L 0-3	25.7	973	1337	7.25%	18.99%	73.76%	-2.06	-7.2	15
2025-11-14	@ Flint Town United	W 3-0	25.7	1337	973	73.76%	18.99%	7.25%	+2.06	+7.2	41
2025-11-15	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	41.9	1021	1019	36.45%	27.63%	35.92%	-0.03	+12.0	16
2025-11-15	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	41.9	1019	1021	35.92%	27.63%	36.45%	+0.03	-12.0	24
2025-11-15	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	54.0	774	1136	7.31%	19.06%	73.63%	-2.05	+4.9	8
2025-11-15	@ Llanelli Town	D 1-1	54.0	1136	774	73.63%	19.06%	7.31%	+2.05	-4.9	29
2025-11-15	Bala Town	W 2-1	40.1	1122	938	58.76%	25.01%	16.23%	+0.98	+5.9	32
2025-11-15	@ Penybont	L 1-2	40.1	938	1122	16.23%	25.01%	58.76%	-0.98	-5.9	19
2025-11-28	Haverfordwest County	W 4-0	33.8	1088	1033	43.76%	27.38%	28.85%	+0.26	+36.4	23
2025-11-28	@ Barry Town United	L 0-4	33.8	1033	1088	28.85%	27.38%	43.76%	-0.26	-36.4	16
2025-11-28	Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	31.7	1344	1131	61.61%	24.18%	14.21%	+1.14	+10.3	44
2025-11-28	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	31.7	1131	1344	14.21%	24.18%	61.61%	-1.14	-10.3	29
2025-11-29	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	57.1	932	1058	21.07%	26.36%	52.58%	-0.74	+1.6	20
2025-11-29	@ Bala Town	D 2-2	57.1	1058	932	52.58%	26.36%	21.07%	+0.74	-1.6	22
2025-11-29	Flint Town United	D 2-2	56.7	974	966	37.31%	27.62%	35.07%	+0.00	-0.1	17
2025-11-29	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	56.7	966	974	35.07%	27.62%	37.31%	+0.00	+0.1	16
2025-11-29	Penybont	W 5-4	60.8	1007	1127	21.59%	26.46%	51.95%	-0.71	+13.8	27
2025-11-29	@ Colwyn Bay	L 4-5	60.8	1127	1007	51.95%	26.46%	21.59%	+0.71	-13.8	32
2025-11-29	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	34.7	779	1189	5.90%	17.31%	76.79%	-2.32	-2.0	8
2025-11-29	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-1	34.7	1189	779	76.79%	17.31%	5.90%	+2.32	+2.0	31
2025-12-05	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	36.4	934	997	27.86%	27.30%	44.84%	-0.39	-18.7	20
2025-12-05	@ Bala Town	W 2-0	36.4	997	934	44.84%	27.30%	27.86%	+0.39	+18.7	19
2025-12-05	Flint Town United	D 1-1	52.0	1121	966	55.84%	25.72%	18.44%	+0.82	-2.6	30
2025-12-05	@ Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	52.0	966	1121	18.44%	25.72%	55.84%	-0.82	+2.6	17
2025-12-05	Llanelli Town	W 2-1	37.5	1056	777	67.41%	22.03%	10.56%	+1.51	+3.8	25
2025-12-05	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	37.5	777	1056	10.56%	22.03%	67.41%	-1.51	-3.8	8
2025-12-05	Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	40.6	1191	1021	57.36%	25.37%	17.28%	+0.90	+6.2	34
2025-12-05	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.6	1021	1191	17.28%	25.37%	57.36%	-0.90	-6.2	27
2025-12-09	The New Saints	L 0-2	27.5	973	1355	6.71%	18.36%	74.92%	-2.16	-4.6	17
2025-12-09	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	27.5	1355	973	74.92%	18.36%	6.71%	+2.16	+4.6	47
2025-12-09	Barry Town United	D 1-1	51.5	1114	1124	34.71%	27.62%	37.67%	-0.10	+0.2	33
2025-12-09	@ Penybont	D 1-1	51.5	1124	1114	37.67%	27.62%	34.71%	+0.10	-0.2	24
2025-12-16	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 2-2	56.9	1060	969	48.49%	26.95%	24.57%	+0.47	-1.2	26
2025-12-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	56.9	969	1060	24.57%	26.95%	48.49%	-0.47	+1.2	18
2025-12-20	Haverfordwest County	D 2-2	56.8	968	1015	29.82%	27.45%	42.74%	-0.30	+0.6	18
2025-12-20	@ Flint Town United	D 2-2	56.8	1015	968	42.74%	27.45%	29.82%	+0.30	-0.6	20
2025-12-21	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 4-2	40.4	1197	970	62.90%	23.76%	13.35%	+1.22	+7.5	37
2025-12-21	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-4	40.4	970	1197	13.35%	23.76%	62.90%	-1.22	-7.5	18
2025-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	39.4	1124	1059	45.12%	27.28%	27.60%	+0.32	+9.8	27
2025-12-26	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	39.4	1059	1124	27.60%	27.28%	45.12%	-0.32	-9.8	26
2025-12-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-2	30.8	969	1204	12.85%	23.49%	63.66%	-1.35	-9.3	18
2025-12-26	@ Flint Town United	W 2-0	30.8	1204	969	63.66%	23.49%	12.85%	+1.35	+9.3	40
2025-12-26	Llanelli Town	W 3-0	28.4	1015	773	64.21%	23.29%	12.50%	+1.30	+13.2	23
2025-12-26	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	28.4	773	1015	12.50%	23.29%	64.21%	-1.30	-13.2	8
2025-12-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	52.0	1114	963	55.42%	25.81%	18.77%	+0.80	-2.5	34
2025-12-26	@ Penybont	D 1-1	52.0	963	1114	18.77%	25.81%	55.42%	-0.80	+2.6	19
2025-12-27	Colwyn Bay	L 1-2	50.8	1118	1015	49.98%	26.75%	23.26%	+0.53	-14.7	30
2025-12-27	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	50.8	1015	1118	23.26%	26.75%	49.98%	-0.53	+14.7	30
2025-12-30	Haverfordwest County	D 0-0	47.5	1049	1028	39.22%	27.59%	33.19%	+0.08	-0.4	27
2025-12-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 0-0	47.5	1028	1049	33.19%	27.59%	39.22%	-0.08	+0.4	24
2025-12-31	Caernarfon Town	L 0-1	35.1	915	1104	15.86%	24.87%	59.27%	-1.09	-6.1	20
2025-12-31	@ Bala Town	W 1-0	35.1	1104	915	59.27%	24.87%	15.86%	+1.09	+6.1	33
2025-12-31	Barry Town United	W 2-1	52.5	965	1134	17.36%	25.39%	57.24%	-0.98	+16.5	22
2025-12-31	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-2	52.5	1134	965	57.24%	25.39%	17.36%	+0.98	-16.5	27
2025-12-31	The New Saints	W 3-1	50.1	1214	1359	19.28%	25.94%	54.78%	-0.85	+27.5	43
2025-12-31	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	50.1	1359	1214	54.78%	25.94%	19.28%	+0.85	-27.5	47
2026-01-01	Flint Town United	L 1-2	49.6	1029	960	45.76%	27.23%	27.01%	+0.35	-13.6	30
2026-01-01	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-1	49.6	960	1029	27.01%	27.23%	45.76%	-0.35	+13.6	21
2026-01-01	Penybont	L 0-1	31.0	760	1111	7.67%	19.46%	72.87%	-1.99	-2.8	8
2026-01-01	@ Llanelli Town	W 1-0	31.0	1111	760	72.87%	19.46%	7.67%	+1.99	+2.8	37
2026-01-03	Barry Town United	W 3-1	39.5	1241	1117	52.39%	26.39%	21.23%	+0.65	+12.9	46
2026-01-03	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	39.5	1117	1241	21.23%	26.39%	52.39%	-0.65	-12.9	27
2026-01-06	Bala Town	W 2-1	34.5	1332	909	77.58%	16.84%	5.58%	+2.31	+1.8	50
2026-01-06	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	34.5	909	1332	5.58%	16.84%	77.58%	-2.31	-1.8	20
2026-01-13	Llanelli Town	W 5-1	29.3	1104	757	72.56%	19.62%	7.82%	+1.89	+8.6	30
2026-01-13	@ Barry Town United	L 1-5	29.3	757	1104	7.82%	19.62%	72.56%	-1.89	-8.6	8
2026-01-13	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 2-2	57.4	1110	1254	19.37%	25.97%	54.66%	-0.84	+1.8	34
2026-01-13	@ Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	57.4	1254	1110	54.66%	25.97%	19.37%	+0.84	-1.8	47
2026-01-13	Bala Town	L 0-4	38.7	973	907	45.27%	27.27%	27.46%	+0.33	-51.2	21
2026-01-13	@ Flint Town United	W 4-0	38.7	907	973	27.46%	27.27%	45.27%	-0.33	+51.2	23
2026-01-13	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 2-3	53.8	1028	982	42.71%	27.45%	29.84%	+0.22	-12.2	24
2026-01-13	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-2	53.8	982	1028	29.84%	27.45%	42.71%	-0.22	+12.2	25
2026-01-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.6	1114	1049	45.19%	27.28%	27.54%	+0.32	-1.2	38
2026-01-13	@ Penybont	D 1-1	51.6	1049	1114	27.54%	27.28%	45.19%	-0.32	+1.2	28
2026-01-13	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	31.9	1333	1016	70.41%	20.69%	8.91%	+1.72	+3.3	53
2026-01-13	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	31.9	1016	1333	8.91%	20.69%	70.41%	-1.72	-3.3	30

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2026-01-23	Flint Town United	L 3-4	56.5	959	922	41.31%	27.52%	31.17%	+0.16	-11.6	0
2026-01-23	@ Bala Town	W 4-3	56.5	922	959	31.17%	27.52%	41.31%	-0.16	+11.6	3
2026-01-23	Llanelli Town	W 3-1	35.7	994	749	64.53%	23.18%	12.30%	+1.32	+7.7	3
2026-01-23	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-3	35.7	749	994	12.30%	23.18%	64.53%	-1.32	-7.7	0
2026-01-23	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	40.4	1050	1016	40.96%	27.53%	31.51%	+0.15	-24.9	0
2026-01-23	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	40.4	1016	1050	31.51%	27.53%	40.96%	-0.15	+24.9	3
2026-01-24	Caernarfon Town	D 0-0	47.5	1113	1112	36.37%	27.63%	36.01%	-0.03	-0.0	1
2026-01-24	@ Penybont	D 0-0	47.5	1112	1113	36.01%	27.63%	36.37%	+0.03	+0.0	1
2026-01-24	Barry Town United	W 1-0	34.4	1337	1113	62.64%	23.84%	13.52%	+1.20	+5.2	3
2026-01-24	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	34.4	1113	1337	13.52%	23.84%	62.64%	-1.20	-5.2	0
2026-01-24	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 2-2	58.1	1013	1252	12.60%	23.35%	64.05%	-1.37	+2.8	1
2026-01-24	@ Colwyn Bay	D 2-2	58.1	1252	1013	64.05%	23.35%	12.60%	+1.37	-2.8	1
2026-02-06	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	52.1	1250	1112	53.95%	26.11%	19.95%	+0.72	-2.3	2
2026-02-06	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.1	1112	1250	19.95%	26.11%	53.95%	-0.72	+2.3	2
2026-02-06	Haverfordwest County	L 0-2	37.3	1001	1041	30.77%	27.50%	41.73%	-0.26	-20.2	3
2026-02-06	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	37.3	1041	1001	41.73%	27.50%	30.77%	+0.26	+20.1	6
2026-02-07	Penybont	W 6-0	29.2	1342	1113	63.10%	23.69%	13.21%	+1.23	+26.6	6
2026-02-07	@ The New Saints	L 0-6	29.2	1113	1342	13.21%	23.69%	63.10%	-1.23	-26.6	1
2026-02-07	Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	45.6	1108	1015	48.61%	26.93%	24.46%	+0.47	-15.2	0
2026-02-07	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	45.6	1015	1108	24.46%	26.93%	48.61%	-0.47	+15.2	4
2026-02-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.6	947	1025	26.05%	27.13%	46.82%	-0.47	+1.4	1
2026-02-07	@ Bala Town	D 1-1	51.6	1025	947	46.82%	27.13%	26.05%	+0.47	-1.4	1
2026-02-07	Flint Town United	L 0-2	31.9	741	934	15.56%	24.75%	59.69%	-1.11	-11.3	0
2026-02-07	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-0	31.9	934	741	59.69%	24.75%	15.56%	+1.11	+11.3	6
2026-02-13	The New Saints	L 0-2	28.5	1030	1369	8.13%	19.94%	71.93%	-1.92	-5.7	4
2026-02-13	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-0	28.5	1369	1030	71.93%	19.94%	8.13%	+1.92	+5.7	9
2026-02-13	Llanelli Town	D 1-1	53.3	1024	730	68.58%	21.53%	9.90%	+1.59	-4.3	2
2026-02-13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	53.3	730	1024	9.90%	21.53%	68.58%	-1.59	+4.3	1
2026-02-13	Bala Town	W 3-0	32.4	1061	948	51.08%	26.60%	22.32%	+0.59	+22.7	9
2026-02-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-3	32.4	948	1061	22.32%	26.60%	51.08%	-0.59	-22.6	1
2026-02-14	Connahs Quay Nomads	D 0-0	48.2	1086	1247	17.97%	25.58%	56.45%	-0.93	+3.0	2
2026-02-14	@ Penybont	D 0-0	48.2	1247	1086	56.45%	25.58%	17.97%	+0.93	-3.0	3
2026-02-14	Barry Town United	L 0-2	39.9	1114	1092	39.26%	27.59%	33.15%	+0.08	-24.1	2
2026-02-14	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-0	39.9	1092	1114	33.15%	27.59%	39.26%	-0.08	+24.1	3
2026-02-14	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 0-0	47.5	945	981	31.18%	27.52%	41.30%	-0.24	+0.7	7
2026-02-14	@ Flint Town United	D 0-0	47.5	981	945	41.30%	27.52%	31.18%	+0.24	-0.7	4
2026-02-20	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	37.7	1374	1090	67.82%	21.86%	10.32%	+1.54	+3.7	12
2026-02-20	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	37.7	1090	1374	10.32%	21.86%	67.82%	-1.54	-3.7	2
2026-02-20	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	31.0	734	1084	7.72%	19.51%	72.77%	-1.98	-2.8	1
2026-02-20	@ Llanelli Town	W 1-0	31.0	1084	734	72.77%	19.51%	7.72%	+1.98	+2.8	12
2026-02-21	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 1-0	46.8	1117	1244	20.89%	26.32%	52.80%	-0.75	+16.3	6
2026-02-21	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	46.8	1244	1117	52.80%	26.32%	20.89%	+0.75	-16.3	3
2026-02-21	Penybont	W 3-1	46.8	1025	1089	27.64%	27.28%	45.07%	-0.40	+23.3	7
2026-02-21	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-3	46.8	1089	1025	45.07%	27.28%	27.64%	+0.40	-23.3	2
2026-02-21	Bala Town	W 2-1	44.6	981	926	43.82%	27.38%	28.80%	+0.27	+9.6	7
2026-02-21	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-2	44.6	926	981	28.80%	27.38%	43.82%	-0.27	-9.6	1
2026-02-21	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	51.6	946	1019	26.57%	27.18%	46.25%	-0.45	+1.3	8
2026-02-21	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	51.6	1019	946	46.25%	27.18%	26.57%	+0.45	-1.3	3
2026-02-27	Colwyn Bay	W 3-0	35.3	1086	1048	41.55%	27.51%	30.95%	+0.17	+29.4	5
2026-02-27	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	35.3	1048	1086	30.95%	27.51%	41.55%	-0.17	-29.4	7
2026-02-27	Llanelli Town	D 0-0	48.3	916	731	58.92%	24.97%	16.12%	+0.99	-3.4	2
2026-02-27	@ Bala Town	D 0-0	48.3	731	916	16.12%	24.97%	58.92%	-0.99	+3.4	2
2026-03-01	Flint Town United	L 1-3	49.2	1087	947	54.14%	26.07%	19.79%	+0.73	-27.2	12
2026-03-01	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-1	49.2	947	1087	19.79%	26.07%	54.14%	-0.73	+27.2	11
2026-03-03	Penybont	W 1-0	39.3	1133	1066	45.38%	27.26%	27.36%	+0.33	+9.8	9
2026-03-03	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	39.3	1066	1133	27.36%	27.26%	45.38%	-0.33	-9.8	2
2026-03-03	The New Saints	L 1-2	42.1	1228	1378	18.87%	25.83%	55.30%	-0.87	-6.7	3
2026-03-03	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	42.1	1378	1228	55.30%	25.83%	18.87%	+0.87	+6.7	15
2026-03-13	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 2-4	44.3	1116	1221	23.06%	26.72%	50.22%	-0.63	-12.4	5
2026-03-13	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-2	44.3	1221	1116	50.22%	26.72%	23.06%	+0.63	+12.4	6
2026-03-13	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	40.3	1059	1018	42.00%	27.49%	30.52%	+0.19	+10.6	15
2026-03-13	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.3	1018	1059	30.52%	27.49%	42.00%	-0.19	-10.6	3
2026-03-13	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-2	30.2	734	990	11.73%	22.83%	65.44%	-1.46	-8.5	2
2026-03-13	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-0	30.2	990	734	65.44%	22.83%	11.73%	+1.46	+8.5	10
2026-03-14	Bala Town	D 1-1	51.5	974	913	44.69%	27.32%	28.00%	+0.30	-1.1	12
2026-03-14	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	51.5	913	974	28.00%	27.32%	44.69%	-0.30	+1.1	3
2026-03-14	Barry Town United	W 3-1	48.8	1019	1143	21.24%	26.39%	52.37%	-0.73	+26.4	10
2026-03-14	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-3	48.8	1143	1019	52.37%	26.39%	21.24%	+0.73	-26.4	9
2026-03-14	The New Saints	L 1-2	36.7	1056	1385	8.49%	20.29%	71.22%	-1.86	-3.0	2
2026-03-14	@ Penybont	W 2-1	36.7	1385	1056	71.22%	20.29%	8.49%	+1.86	+3.0	18
2026-03-16	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-2	39.4	1007	999	37.43%	27.62%	34.95%	+0.01	-23.3	3
2026-03-16	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 2-0	39.4	999	1007	34.95%	27.62%	37.43%	-0.01	+23.3	13
2026-03-20	Colwyn Bay	L 0-2	47.7	1388	1045	72.25%	19.78%	7.97%	+1.86	-39.9	18
2026-03-20	@ The New Saints	W 2-0	47.7	1045	1388	7.97%	19.78%	72.25%	-1.86	+39.9	13
2026-03-20	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	38.0	726	984	11.61%	22.75%	65.64%	-1.47	-4.2	2
2026-03-20	@ Llanelli Town	W 2-1	38.0	984	726	65.64%	22.75%	11.61%	+1.47	+4.2	6
2026-03-21	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	47.4	914	1070	18.35%	25.69%	55.96%	-0.91	+17.1	6
2026-03-21	@ Bala Town	L 0-1	47.4	1070	914	55.96%	25.69%	18.35%	+0.91	-17.1	15
2026-03-21	Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	46.4	1116	1103	38.04%	27.61%	34.34%	+0.03	+10.9	12
2026-03-21	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	46.4	1103	1116	34.34%	27.61%	38.04%	-0.03	-10.9	5
2026-03-21	Penybont	W 2-1	40.3	1234	1053	58.45%	25.09%	16.46%	+0.96	+5.9	9
2026-03-21	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	40.3	1053	1234	16.46%	25.09%	58.45%	-0.96	-6.0	2
2026-03-21	Flint Town United	D 0-0	47.5	1022	973	43.00%	27.43%	29.57%	+0.23	-1.0	14
2026-03-21	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 0-0	47.5	973	1022	29.57%	27.43%	43.00%	-0.23	+1.0	13
2026-03-27	The New Saints	L 0-4	27.6	1092	1348	11.74%	22.84%	65.43%	-1.46	-16.1	5
2026-03-27	@ Caernarfon Town	W 4-0	27.6	1348	1092	65.43%	22.84%	11.74%	+1.46	+16.1	21
2026-03-28	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 1-0	40.7	1053	1021	40.69%	27.54%	31.76%	+0.14	+10.9	18
2026-03-28	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	40.7	1021	1053	31.76%	27.54%	40.69%	-0.14	-11.0	14
2026-03-28	Colwyn Bay	D 0-0	47.5	1047	1085	31.00%	27.51%	41.49%	-0.25	+0.8	3
2026-03-28	@ Penybont	D 0-0	47.5	1085	1047	41.49%	27.51%	31.00%	+0.25	-0.8	14
2026-03-28	Bala Town	W 2-1	44.5	988	931	44.14%	27.36%	28.51%	+0.28	+9.5	9
2026-03-28	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-2	44.5	931	988	28.51%	27.36%	44.14%	-0.28	-9.5	6
2026-03-28	Llanelli Town	L 1-2	54.2	974	722	65.14%	22.95%	11.91%	+1.36	-18.4	13
2026-03-28	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	54.2	722	974	11.91%	22.95%	65.14%	-1.36	+18.4	5
2026-03-29	Barry Town United	D 1-1	51.9	1239	1127	51.03%	26.60%	22.37%	+0.58	-2.0	10
2026-03-29	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	51.9	1127	1239	22.37%	26.60%	51.03%	-0.58	+1.9	13
2026-04-03	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	39.4	1084	1076	37.35%	27.62%	35.03%	+0.00	-23.2	14
2026-04-03	@ Colwyn Bay	W 2-0	39.4	1076	1084	35.03%	27.62%	37.35%	+0.00	+23.2	8
2026-04-03	Barry Town United	L 0-2	35.7	1048	1129	25.71%	27.09%	47.20%	-0.49	-17.5	3
2026-04-03	@ Penybont	W 2-0	35.7	1129	1048	47.20%	27.09%	25.71%	+0.49	+17.5	16
2026-04-03	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	42.9	1364	1238	52.66%	26.34%	21.00%	+0.66	+7.4	24
2026-04-03	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	42.9	1238	1364	21.00%	26.34%	52.66%	-0.66	-7.4	10
2026-04-03	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 3-1	43.7	1010	998	37.94%	27.62%	34.44%	+0.03	+19.0	17
2026-04-03	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-3	43.7	998	1010	34.44%	27.62%	37.94%	-0.03	-19.0	9
2026-04-03	Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	37.7	956	1064	22.79%	26.68%	50.53%	-0.64	-8.4	13
2026-04-03	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	37.7	1064	956	50.53%	26.68%	22.79%	+0.64	+8.4	21
2026-04-03	Bala Town	L 0-5	29.6	740	921	16.40%	25.07%	58.54%	-1.05	-27.7	5
2026-04-03	@ Llanelli Town	W 5-0	29.6	921	740	58.54%	25.07%	16.40%	+1.05	+27.7	9
2026-04-18	The New Saints	L 0-1	34.6	1147	1371	13.47%	23.82%	62.71%	-1.29	-5.2	16
2026-04-18	@ Barry Town United	W 1-0	34.6	1371	1147	62.71%	23.82%	13.47%	+1.29	+5.2	27
2026-04-18	Penybont	W 2-0	36.2	1099	1031	45.64%	27.24%	27.12%	+0.34	+18.3	11
2026-04-18	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	36.2	1031	1099	27.12%	27.24%	45.64%	-0.34	-18.3	3
2026-04-18	Colwyn Bay	D 1-1	52.2	1230	1061	57.31%	25.38%	17.31%	+0.90	-2.8	11
2026-04-18	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	52.2	1061	1230	17.31%	25.38%	57.31%	-0.90	+2.8	15
2026-04-18	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-2	43.6	949	1029	25.83%	27.10%	47.06%	-0.48	-8.8	9
2026-04-18	@ Bala Town	W 2-1	43.6	1029	949	47.06%	27.10%	25.83%	+0.48	+8.8	20
2026-04-18	Flint Town United	D 2-2	56.7	979	947	40.64%	27.55%	31.81%	+0.13	-0.4	10
2026-04-18	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	56.7	947	979	31.81%	27.55%	40.64%	-0.13	+0.4	14
2026-04-18	Llanelli Town	W 6-0	25.7	1072	712	73.46%	19.15%	7.39%	+1.96	+14.1	24
2026-04-18	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-6	25.7	712	1072	7.39%	19.15%	73.46%	-1.96	-14.1	5

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2026-03-20	7.97%	Colwyn Bay	1045	2	@ The New Saints	1388	0
2	2025-11-07	8.97%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1039	3	@ The New Saints	1356	2
3	2025-08-10	10.88%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	988	3	@ The New Saints	1261	0
4	2026-03-28	11.91%	Llanelli Town	722	2	@ Flint Town United	974	1
5	2025-09-23	13.88%	Llanelli Town	805	2	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1024	1
6	2025-09-28	14.62%	Cardiff Metropolitan	962	3	@ Caernarfon Town	1169	0
7	2025-09-26	16.53%	@ Llanelli Town	823	1	Haverfordwest County	1003	0
8	2025-12-31	17.36%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	965	2	Barry Town United	1134	1
9	2026-03-21	18.35%	@ Bala Town	914	1	Haverfordwest County	1070	0
10	2025-12-31	19.28%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1214	3	The New Saints	1359	1
11	2026-03-01	19.79%	Flint Town United	947	3	@ Haverfordwest County	1087	1
12	2025-10-04	20.59%	@ Colwyn Bay	987	1	Caernarfon Town	1118	0
13	2026-02-21	20.89%	@ Barry Town United	1117	1	Connahs Quay Nomads	1244	0
14	2026-03-14	21.24%	@ Colwyn Bay	1019	3	Barry Town United	1143	1
15	2025-11-29	21.59%	@ Colwyn Bay	1007	5	Penybont	1127	4
16	2025-09-13	22.94%	@ Colwyn Bay	965	3	Haverfordwest County	1072	0
17	2025-12-27	23.26%	Colwyn Bay	1015	2	@ Caernarfon Town	1118	1
18	2025-10-25	23.74%	Caernarfon Town	1093	2	@ Penybont	1192	0
19	2025-08-30	24.17%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1056	1	@ Penybont	1151	0
20	2025-09-06	24.46%	Colwyn Bay	930	4	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1023	1
21	2026-02-07	24.46%	Colwyn Bay	1015	1	@ Barry Town United	1108	0
22	2025-10-07	25.50%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	998	1	@ Barry Town United	1081	0
23	2026-01-01	27.01%	Flint Town United	960	2	@ Colwyn Bay	1029	1
24	2026-01-13	27.46%	Bala Town	907	4	@ Flint Town United	973	0
25	2026-02-21	27.64%	@ Colwyn Bay	1025	3	Penybont	1089	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-08-10	54.64	Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	988	10.88%	@ The New Saints	0	1261	66.86%	22.26%
2	2026-01-13	51.21	Bala Town	4	907	27.46%	@ Flint Town United	0	973	45.27%	27.27%
3	2025-09-28	50.60	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	962	14.62%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1169	61.01%	24.36%
4	2025-11-08	46.27	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1142	32.64%	Penybont	0	1168	39.79%	27.57%
5	2025-09-13	42.84	@ Colwyn Bay	3	965	22.94%	Haverfordwest County	0	1072	50.36%	26.70%
6	2025-09-13	42.58	@ Barry Town United	4	1054	36.81%	Bala Town	0	1050	35.56%	27.63%
7	2026-03-20	39.90	Colwyn Bay	2	1045	7.97%	@ The New Saints	0	1388	72.25%	19.78%
8	2025-09-13	38.97	@ Penybont	5	1134	48.93%	Flint Town United	0	1039	24.18%	26.89%
9	2025-11-28	36.40	@ Barry Town United	4	1088	43.76%	Haverfordwest County	0	1033	28.85%	27.38%
10	2025-09-06	35.06	Colwyn Bay	4	930	24.46%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1023	48.61%	26.93%
11	2025-09-06	34.05	@ The New Saints	5	1237	53.14%	Haverfordwest County	0	1106	20.60%	26.26%
12	2026-02-27	29.40	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1086	41.55%	Colwyn Bay	0	1048	30.95%	27.51%
13	2025-10-25	29.04	Caernarfon Town	2	1093	23.74%	@ Penybont	0	1192	49.43%	26.83%
14	2025-09-06	28.83	Flint Town United	5	1010	57.57%	@ Llanelli Town	0	839	17.12%	25.32%
15	2025-11-01	28.70	Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1114	42.57%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1068	29.98%	27.46%
16	2026-04-03	27.69	Bala Town	5	921	58.54%	@ Llanelli Town	0	740	16.40%	25.07%
17	2025-12-31	27.47	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1214	19.28%	The New Saints	1	1359	54.78%	25.94%
18	2026-03-01	27.19	Flint Town United	3	947	19.79%	@ Haverfordwest County	1	1087	54.14%	26.07%
19	2026-02-07	26.63	@ The New Saints	6	1342	63.10%	Penybont	0	1113	13.21%	23.69%
20	2026-03-14	26.42	@ Colwyn Bay	3	1019	21.24%	Barry Town United	1	1143	52.37%	26.39%
21	2025-10-11	25.91	Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1089	46.55%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	1013	26.30%	27.15%
22	2025-11-01	25.61	Barry Town United	4	1064	40.12%	@ Colwyn Bay	1	1036	32.31%	27.56%
23	2026-01-23	24.94	Haverfordwest County	2	1016	31.51%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	1050	40.96%	27.53%
24	2025-10-11	24.71	@ Flint Town United	4	976	56.19%	Llanelli Town	0	817	18.17%	25.64%
25	2025-10-25	24.37	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	4	1044	42.27%	Flint Town United	1	1000	30.26%	27.47%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-10-25	61.1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1115	48.75%	Haverfordwest County	3	1021	24.34%	26.91%
2	2025-11-29	60.8	@ Colwyn Bay	5	1007	21.59%	Penybont	4	1127	51.95%	26.46%
3	2025-11-07	60.2	Cardiff Metropolitan	3	1039	8.97%	@ The New Saints	2	1356	70.29%	20.74%
4	2026-01-24	58.1	@ Colwyn Bay	2	1013	12.60%	Connahs Quay Nomads	2	1252	64.05%	23.35%
5	2026-01-13	57.4	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1110	19.37%	Connahs Quay Nomads	2	1254	54.66%	25.97%
6	2025-11-08	57.1	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1138	51.71%	Haverfordwest County	2	1020	21.79%	26.50%
7	2025-11-29	57.1	@ Bala Town	2	932	21.07%	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1058	52.58%	26.36%
8	2025-08-30	57.0	@ Colwyn Bay	2	929	22.33%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	1042	51.07%	26.60%
9	2025-12-16	56.9	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1060	48.49%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	969	24.57%	26.95%
10	2025-08-09	56.8	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1041	30.34%	Caernarfon Town	2	1084	42.18%	27.48%
11	2025-08-22	56.8	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1096	43.68%	Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1042	28.93%	27.39%
12	2025-10-11	56.8	@ Barry Town United	2	1066	32.45%	Caernarfon Town	2	1093	39.98%	27.57%
13	2025-12-20	56.8	@ Flint Town United	2	968	29.82%	Haverfordwest County	2	1015	42.74%	27.45%
14	2025-09-19	56.7	@ Bala Town	2	1007	33.81%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	1024	38.58%	27.60%
15	2025-11-29	56.7	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	974	37.31%	Flint Town United	2	966	35.07%	27.62%
16	2026-04-18	56.7	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	979	40.64%	Flint Town United	2	947	31.81%	27.55%
17	2026-01-23	56.5	Flint Town United	4	922	31.17%	@ Bala Town	3	959	41.31%	27.52%
18	2026-03-28	54.2	Llanelli Town	2	722	11.91%	@ Flint Town United	1	974	65.14%	22.95%
19	2025-11-15	54.0	@ Llanelli Town	1	774	7.31%	Caernarfon Town	1	1136	73.63%	19.06%
20	2026-01-13	53.8	Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	982	29.84%	@ Haverfordwest County	2	1028	42.71%	27.45%
21	2025-08-25	53.6	@ Colwyn Bay	1	924	8.81%	The New Saints	1	1245	70.60%	20.59%
22	2025-09-23	53.6	Llanelli Town	2	805	13.88%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	1024	62.10%	24.02%
23	2026-02-13	53.3	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1024	68.58%	Llanelli Town	1	730	9.90%	21.53%
24	2025-12-31	52.5	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	965	17.36%	Barry Town United	1	1134	57.24%	25.39%
25	2026-04-18	52.2	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1230	57.31%	Colwyn Bay	1	1061	17.31%	25.38%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-10-24	21.5	The New Saints	4	1349	84.81%	@ Llanelli Town	0	792	2.98%	12.21%
2	2025-09-13	23.8	@ The New Saints	6	1271	79.87%	Llanelli Town	0	810	4.68%	15.45%
3	2025-11-14	25.7	The New Saints	3	1337	73.76%	@ Flint Town United	0	973	7.25%	18.99%
4	2026-04-18	25.7	@ Haverfordwest County	6	1072	73.46%	Llanelli Town	0	712	7.39%	19.15%
5	2025-12-09	27.5	The New Saints	2	1355	74.92%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	973	6.71%	18.36%
6	2026-03-27	27.6	The New Saints	4	1348	65.43%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1092	11.74%	22.84%
7	2025-12-26	28.4	@ Haverfordwest County	3	1015	64.21%	Llanelli Town	0	773	12.50%	23.29%
8	2026-02-13	28.5	The New Saints	2	1369	71.93%	@ Colwyn Bay	0	1030	8.13%	19.94%
9	2025-09-23	28.8	Penybont	4	1185	60.58%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	983	14.93%	24.50%
10	2025-10-04	29.1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1059	62.13%	Llanelli Town	0	841	13.86%	24.01%
11	2025-10-04	29.1	@ The New Saints	4	1299	60.11%	Barry Town United	0	1102	15.26%	24.63%
12	2026-02-07	29.2	@ The New Saints	6	1342	63.10%	Penybont	0	1113	13.21%	23.69%
13	2025-08-25	29.3	@ Penybont	2	1144	68.39%	Llanelli Town	0	852	10.00%	21.61%
14	2026-01-13	29.3	@ Barry Town United	5	1104	72.56%	Llanelli Town	1	757	7.82%	19.62%
15	2026-04-03	29.6	Bala Town	5	921	58.54%	@ Llanelli Town	0	740	16.40%	25.07%
16	2025-09-06	29.9	Flint Town United	5	1010	57.57%	@ Llanelli Town	0	839	17.12%	25.32%
17	2025-09-26	29.9	The New Saints	2	1291	66.81%	@ Bala Town	0	1019	10.91%	22.29%
18	2025-10-11	30.0	@ Flint Town United	4	976	56.19%	Llanelli Town	0	817	18.17%	25.64%
19	2026-03-13	30.2	Briton Ferry Llansawel	2	990	65.44%	@ Llanelli Town	0	734	11.73%	22.83%
20	2025-12-26	30.8	Connahs Quay Nomads	2	1204	63.66%	@ Flint Town United	0	969	12.85%	23.49%
21	2025-08-22	30.9	@ The New Saints	3	1226	56.36%	Connahs Quay Nomads	0	1066	18.04%	25.60%
22	2026-01-01	31.0	Penybont	1	1111	72.87%	@ Llanelli Town	0	760	7.67%	19.46%
23	2026-02-20	31.0	Haverfordwest County	1	1084	72.77%	@ Llanelli Town	0	734	7.72%	19.51%
24	2025-09-06	31.3	@ The New Saints	5	1237	53.14%	Haverfordwest County	0	1106	20.60%	26.26%
25	2025-11-28	31.7	@ The New Saints	2	1344	61.61%	Caernarfon Town	0	1131	14.21%	24.18%