2026-27 Cymru Premier Season

96 games played · 16 teams

Live

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

The New Saints

94.69% chance to win the title

Biggest Overachiever

Penybont

7.80 points above expected

29 points · 21.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Holywell Town

8.73 points below expected

2 points · 10.73 expected points

League Table

Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	The New Saints	12	11	1	0	34	38	5	+33	27.39	+6.61
2	Penybont	12	9	2	1	29	22	9	+13	21.20	+7.80
3	Connahs Quay Nomads	12	9	1	2	28	28	8	+20	24.77	+3.23
4	Barry Town United	12	8	1	3	25	27	20	+7	20.72	+4.28
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	23	36	14	+22	22.89	+0.11
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	22	21	15	+6	18.10	+3.90
7	Cardiff Metropolitan	12	6	3	3	21	23	13	+10	19.10	+1.90
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	18	21	17	+4	13.07	+4.93
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	18	21	32	-11	16.71	+1.29
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	16	21	19	+2	17.92	-1.92
11	Briton Ferry Llansawel	12	3	3	6	12	11	20	-9	14.44	-2.44
12	Haverfordwest County	12	3	1	8	10	7	17	-10	14.32	-4.32
13	Flint Town United	12	2	1	9	7	11	24	-13	9.88	-2.88
14	Ammanford	12	1	3	8	6	9	32	-23	12.17	-6.17
15	Trefelin	12	0	3	9	3	5	30	-25	10.06	-7.06
16	Holywell Town	12	0	2	10	2	13	39	-26	10.73	-8.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Penybont	29	21.20	+7.80
2	The New Saints	34	27.39	+6.61
3	Airbus UK	18	13.07	+4.93
4	Barry Town United	25	20.72	+4.28
5	Colwyn Bay	22	18.10	+3.90

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Holywell Town	2	10.73	-8.73
2	Trefelin	3	10.06	-7.06
3	Ammanford	6	12.17	-6.17
4	Haverfordwest County	10	14.32	-4.32
5	Flint Town United	7	9.88	-2.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	The New Saints	11	Aug 7 – Oct 3	1 in 41
2	Barry Town United	6	Jul 31 – Aug 31	1 in 21
3	Colwyn Bay	4	Sep 12 – Sep 26	1 in 16
4	Connahs Quay Nomads	5	Aug 7 – Aug 31	1 in 9
5	Llandudno	3	Jul 31 – Aug 14	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haverfordwest County	5	Aug 1 – Aug 28	1 in 61
2	Briton Ferry Llansawel	5	Aug 28 – Sep 15	1 in 28
3	Flint Town United	7	Jul 31 – Sep 4	1 in 24
4	Holywell Town	6	Aug 1 – Aug 31	1 in 19
5	Trefelin	4	Jul 31 – Aug 21	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Penybont	11	Aug 2 – Sep 26	1 in 62
2	Haverfordwest County	4	Aug 31 – Sep 18	1 in 14
3	Briton Ferry Llansawel	3	Sep 18 – Oct 3	1 in 9
4	Cambrian United	4	Aug 31 – Sep 15	1 in 7
5	The New Saints	12	Aug 2 – Oct 3	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ammanford	11	Jul 31 – Sep 26	1 in 42
2	Holywell Town	12	Aug 1 – Oct 3	1 in 37
3	Briton Ferry Llansawel	7	Aug 28 – Sep 26	1 in 37
4	Trefelin	12	Jul 31 – Oct 3	1 in 28
5	Barry Town United	3	Sep 15 – Sep 26	1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. The current top 3 and bottom 3 are highlighted; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Elo Movers

Which teams are the hottest and coldest over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?

Biggest Elo Gainers

#	Team	Δ Elo	Current Elo
1	Flint Town United	+112.95	766
2	Briton Ferry Llansawel	+103.39	725
3	Connahs Quay Nomads	+60.23	1196
4	Cardiff Metropolitan	+26.11	1037
5	Trefelin	+25.57	579

Biggest Elo Losers

#	Team	Δ Elo	Current Elo
1	Colwyn Bay	-94.92	1026
2	Caernarfon Town	-94.23	1117
3	Llandudno	-43.27	869
4	Penybont	-43.01	1066
5	Haverfordwest County	-37.95	713

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
The New Saints	1314	34	+66	15	12.8	+2.2
Penybont	1066	29	+27	12	10.5	+1.5
Connahs Quay Nomads	1196	28	+93	12	9.7	+2.3
Barry Town United	1016	25	-58	7	8.2	-1.2
Caernarfon Town	1117	23	+77	8	10.3	-2.3
Colwyn Bay	1026	22	+104	12	9.5	+2.5
Cardiff Metropolitan	1037	21	+11	8	8.1	-0.1
Cambrian United	878	18	-51	9	7.4	+1.6
Airbus UK	877	18	+3	6	6.1	-0.1
Llandudno	869	16	-85	1	4.6	-3.6
Briton Ferry Llansawel	725	12	+0	5	5.5	-0.5
Haverfordwest County	713	10	+0	6	6.6	-0.6
Flint Town United	766	7	+56	7	4.5	+2.5
Ammanford	583	6	-76	4	3.7	+0.3
Trefelin	579	3	-75	1	2.6	-1.6
Holywell Town	549	2	-91	1	4.0	-3.0

Upcoming Matches

The next slate of games with the model’s win / draw probabilities and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo.

Date	Favored By	Home		Win% – Draw% – Win%	Away		Favored By	Excitement
2026-10-09		Briton Ferry Llansawel	12 pts·725	7% – 15% – 79%	Connahs Quay Nomads	28 pts·1196	2.57	23.7
2026-10-09	2.38	Cambrian United	18 pts·878	77% – 15% – 8%	Ammanford	6 pts·583		26.9
2026-10-09	3.44	Cardiff Metropolitan	21 pts·1037	83% – 14% – 3%	Trefelin	3 pts·579		18.3
2026-10-09		Flint Town United	7 pts·766	20% – 15% – 65%	Colwyn Bay	22 pts·1026	1.20	33.6
2026-10-09		Haverfordwest County	10 pts·713	10% – 15% – 76%	Caernarfon Town	23 pts·1117	2.14	28.1
2026-10-09		Holywell Town	2 pts·549	1% – 13% – 86%	The New Saints	34 pts·1314	4.47	22.0
2026-10-09	0.43	Llandudno	16 pts·869	51% – 15% – 33%	Airbus UK	18 pts·877		52.6
2026-10-09	0.80	Penybont	29 pts·1066	58% – 15% – 26%	Barry Town United	25 pts·1016		52.2

Recent Matches

The most recent results with an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo · Elo change.

Date	Favored By	Home		Score	Away		Favored By	Excitement
2026-10-03	2.86	The New Saints	34 pts·1280·+33.80	9 – 0	Cambrian United	18 pts·911·-33.80		25.3
2026-10-03	2.12	Airbus UK	18 pts·855·+21.65	3 – 0	Trefelin	3 pts·600·-21.65		27.3
2026-10-03		Llandudno	16 pts·896·-26.56	0 – 1	Cardiff Metropolitan	21 pts·1010·+26.57	0.27	39.6
2026-10-03	0.62	Haverfordwest County	10 pts·751·-38.22	0 – 1	Flint Town United	7 pts·728·+38.21		45.2
2026-10-03	1.11	Connahs Quay Nomads	28 pts·1180·+16.36	1 – 0	Penybont	29 pts·1082·-16.36		35.0
2026-10-03	1.77	Caernarfon Town	23 pts·1167·-49.91	0 – 1	Barry Town United	25 pts·966·+49.92		50.2
2026-10-03		Briton Ferry Llansawel	12 pts·673·+52.43	1 – 0	Colwyn Bay	22 pts·1078·-52.43	2.14	51.1
2026-10-03	0.39	Ammanford	6 pts·559·+23.56	2 – 1	Holywell Town	2 pts·573·-23.56		43.3
2026-09-29	2.04	Cardiff Metropolitan	21 pts·1002·+8.40	1 – 0	Haverfordwest County	10 pts·759·-8.40		31.6
2026-09-26	0.28	Cambrian United	18 pts·888·+23.03	4 – 3	Llandudno	16 pts·919·-23.03		51.9
2026-09-26		Trefelin	3 pts·603·-3.01	1 – 3	The New Saints	34 pts·1277·+3.02	3.88	31.3
2026-09-26	1.82	Penybont	29 pts·1073·+9.36	2 – 1	Airbus UK	18 pts·864·-9.36		36.6
2026-09-26		Holywell Town	2 pts·571·+1.31	1 – 1	Briton Ferry Llansawel	12 pts·674·-1.31	0.19	55.1
2026-09-26	0.91	Flint Town United	7 pts·678·+50.62	3 – 0	Ammanford	6 pts·610·-50.62		31.8
2026-09-26	2.46	Colwyn Bay	22 pts·1072·+6.07	1 – 0	Haverfordwest County	10 pts·765·-6.07		30.6
2026-09-26		Cardiff Metropolitan	21 pts·999·+3.19	2 – 2	Caernarfon Town	23 pts·1170·-3.19	0.63	59.9
2026-09-26		Barry Town United	25 pts·1035·-69.02	1 – 4	Connahs Quay Nomads	28 pts·1111·+69.02	0.02	41.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AU	AMM	BTU	BFL	CT	CU	CM	CB	CQN	FTU	HC	HT	LLA	PEN	TNS	TRE
Airbus UK	—	1-0-0 1.05	0-0-1 0.43	1-0-0 1.18	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.98	0-0-1 0.83	0-0-1 0.52	1-0-0 2.12	1-0-0 0.55	1-0-0 1.98	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.52	0-0-1 0.49	1-0-0 2.41
Ammanford	0-0-1 1.79	—	0-1-0 0.22	0-0-1 1.26	0-0-1 0.47	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.10	0-1-0 1.49	0-0-1 0.88	0-0-1 0.88	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 1.67	0-0-1 0.42	0-0-1 0.41	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-0 1.57
Barry Town United	1-0-0 2.42	0-1-0 2.64	—	1-0-0 1.95	1-0-0 0.54	1-0-0 1.85	1-0-0 1.74	0-0-1 1.49	0-0-1 1.41	1-0-0 1.77	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.14	1-0-0 2.13	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.65	0-0-0 0.00
Briton Ferry Llansawel	0-0-1 1.66	1-0-0 1.59	0-0-1 0.90	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-0 1.16	0-0-1 1.42	1-0-0 0.44	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 1.63	0-0-1 1.17	0-1-0 1.55	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.31	0-0-1 0.60	0-1-0 2.02
Caernarfon Town	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.38	0-0-1 2.31	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-0-0 2.04	0-1-0 1.82	1-0-0 1.66	1-0-0 0.91	1-0-0 2.47	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.22	0-1-0 1.77	0-0-1 2.07	0-0-1 1.02	1-0-0 2.21
Cambrian United	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.99	0-1-0 1.68	0-0-1 0.80	—	0-1-0 0.76	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.79	1-0-0 2.07	1-0-0 1.74	1-0-0 2.46	1-0-0 1.60	0-1-0 1.31	0-0-1 0.30	1-0-0 2.19
Cardiff Metropolitan	1-0-0 1.86	1-0-0 1.74	0-0-1 1.11	1-0-0 1.43	0-1-0 1.03	0-1-0 2.09	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.85	0-1-0 2.25	1-0-0 2.39	1-0-0 1.55	1-0-0 1.60	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.21	0-0-0 0.00
Colwyn Bay	1-0-0 2.01	0-1-0 1.35	1-0-0 1.36	0-0-1 2.42	0-0-1 1.19	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-0-0 0.99	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.48	1-0-0 2.26	1-0-0 1.17	0-0-1 0.83	0-0-1 0.37	1-0-0 1.66
Connahs Quay Nomads	1-0-0 2.33	1-0-0 1.97	1-0-0 1.43	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.94	1-0-0 2.05	1-0-0 2.00	0-0-1 1.85	—	1-0-0 2.36	0-1-0 2.59	1-0-0 1.78	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.06	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.40
Flint Town United	0-0-1 0.73	1-0-0 1.97	0-0-1 1.08	0-0-1 1.22	0-0-1 0.38	0-0-1 0.78	0-1-0 0.60	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.49	—	1-0-0 1.04	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.98	0-0-1 0.42	0-0-1 0.20	0-0-0 0.00
Haverfordwest County	0-0-1 2.30	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 1.67	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.10	0-0-1 0.46	0-0-1 0.37	0-1-0 0.26	0-0-1 1.81	—	1-0-0 2.25	0-0-1 0.37	0-0-1 1.43	0-0-1 0.54	1-0-0 1.74
Holywell Town	0-0-1 0.86	0-0-1 1.17	0-0-1 0.71	0-1-0 1.30	0-0-1 0.62	0-0-1 0.39	0-0-1 1.29	0-0-1 0.58	0-0-1 1.06	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 0.60	—	0-0-1 0.44	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-0 1.70
Llandudno	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.43	0-0-1 0.72	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-0 1.07	0-0-1 1.24	0-0-1 1.25	0-0-1 1.67	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 1.87	1-0-0 2.48	1-0-0 2.42	—	0-0-1 1.24	0-0-1 0.32	1-0-0 1.20
Penybont	1-0-0 2.33	1-0-0 2.44	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.55	1-0-0 0.78	0-1-0 1.53	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.01	0-0-1 0.79	1-0-0 2.44	1-0-0 1.42	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 1.61	—	0-1-0 0.93	1-0-0 2.38
The New Saints	1-0-0 2.36	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.19	1-0-0 2.24	1-0-0 1.82	1-0-0 2.55	1-0-0 1.64	1-0-0 2.48	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.67	1-0-0 2.31	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-0 2.53	0-1-0 1.91	—	1-0-0 2.66
Trefelin	0-0-1 0.44	0-1-0 1.28	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-0 0.83	0-0-1 0.64	0-0-1 0.66	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.18	0-0-1 0.45	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-1 1.10	0-1-0 1.15	0-0-1 1.64	0-0-1 0.47	0-0-1 0.20	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.77	+8.7
Allowed	0.70	-8.5
Differential	0.89	+5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.04%	9.90%	5.73%	4.69%	1.04%	3.65%	26.04%
1	9.90%	8.33%	6.25%	2.60%	2.08%	2.08%	31.25%
2	5.73%	6.25%	5.21%	2.08%	0.52%	1.04%	20.83%
3	4.69%	2.60%	2.08%	—	0.52%	0.52%	10.42%
4	1.04%	2.08%	0.52%	0.52%	—	—	4.17%
5+	3.65%	2.08%	1.04%	0.52%	—	—	7.29%
Total	26.04%	31.25%	20.83%	10.42%	4.17%	7.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.65	1.65	2.61
CV	1.01	1.01	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
1	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.42	+0.33
SD	1.86	1.31	2.42
CV	1.07	0.93	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	16.67%	50.00%
1	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
2	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	—	25.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	2.67	-1.92
SD	0.87	1.50	2.02
CV	1.15	0.56	—
Max	2	5	+1
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	16.67%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
2	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
3	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	41.67%	25.00%	—	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	1.67	+0.58
SD	1.36	1.50	2.02
CV	0.60	0.90	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	25.00%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	58.33%
2	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.92	1.67	-0.75
SD	0.67	1.30	1.48
CV	0.73	0.78	—
Max	2	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
3	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.00	1.17	+1.83
SD	2.52	1.11	2.76
CV	0.84	0.96	—
Max	9	3	+8
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
2	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	2.67	-0.92
SD	1.36	3.14	3.96
CV	0.78	1.18	—
Max	4	9	+4
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
1	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	41.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.92	1.08	+0.83
SD	1.93	1.44	2.76
CV	1.01	1.33	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
2	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	41.67%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.25	+0.50
SD	1.71	1.54	2.50
CV	0.98	1.24	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
2	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	50.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	0.67	+1.67
SD	1.56	0.78	1.97
CV	0.67	1.17	—
Max	6	2	+6
Min	1	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
2	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.92	2.00	-1.08
SD	1.00	1.60	2.02
CV	1.09	0.80	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	66.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	58.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.58	1.42	-0.83
SD	1.00	0.90	1.59
CV	1.71	0.64	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	—	8.33%	66.67%
2	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	25.00%	—	33.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	3.25	-2.17
SD	0.79	2.01	1.75
CV	0.73	0.62	—
Max	3	6	+0
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	—	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.58	+0.17
SD	1.29	1.38	2.04
CV	0.74	0.87	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	25.00%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
2	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	41.67%	41.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	0.75	+1.08
SD	1.40	0.75	1.31
CV	0.77	1.01	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	66.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.17	0.42	+2.75
SD	2.48	0.67	2.56
CV	0.78	1.60	—
Max	9	2	+9
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	58.33%
1	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.42	2.50	-2.08
SD	0.51	1.57	1.88
CV	1.24	0.63	—
Max	1	6	+0
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 12

Season Summary

Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Exp. Pts. Rem.	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
The New Saints	1314	34	78.13	44.13	61	71	75	78	81	85	88
Connahs Quay Nomads	1196	28	66.96	38.96	50	59	64	67	70	74	82
Caernarfon Town	1117	23	60.48	37.48	43	52	57	61	64	68	77
Penybont	1066	29	63.40	34.40	42	55	60	64	67	72	80
Cardiff Metropolitan	1037	21	54.22	33.22	33	46	51	54	58	62	73
Colwyn Bay	1026	22	54.42	32.42	36	46	51	54	58	63	73
Barry Town United	1016	25	57.43	32.43	39	49	54	58	61	66	75
Cambrian United	878	18	43.39	25.39	26	35	40	43	47	52	63
Airbus UK	877	18	42.32	24.32	24	34	39	42	46	51	61
Llandudno	869	16	40.07	24.07	20	32	37	40	43	48	59
Flint Town United	766	7	28.11	21.11	11	20	25	28	31	36	49
Briton Ferry Llansawel	725	12	28.11	16.11	13	21	25	28	31	36	45
Haverfordwest County	713	10	25.34	15.34	11	18	22	25	28	33	42
Ammanford	583	6	17.24	11.24	6	11	14	17	20	25	38
Trefelin	579	3	13.62	10.62	3	7	11	13	16	21	30
Holywell Town	549	2	11.35	9.35	2	5	9	11	14	18	29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Season metrics are available for completed seasons.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
The New Saints	94.69%	4.62%	0.61%	0.07%	—	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Penybont	0.93%	23.07%	33.42%	22.20%	11.90%	6.15%	2.20%	0.11%	0.02%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	4.09%	56.23%	23.96%	10.47%	3.81%	1.17%	0.26%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Barry Town United	0.02%	3.15%	10.16%	18.76%	26.66%	23.27%	15.13%	2.41%	0.38%	0.06%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Caernarfon Town	0.27%	11.04%	23.71%	29.12%	19.14%	11.58%	4.32%	0.72%	0.09%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Colwyn Bay	—	1.04%	4.20%	9.80%	18.07%	25.47%	31.22%	7.78%	2.02%	0.40%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	—	0.85%	3.91%	9.43%	19.20%	28.33%	29.11%	7.19%	1.72%	0.26%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Airbus UK	—	—	0.01%	0.06%	0.38%	1.43%	6.38%	31.17%	32.74%	24.37%	3.03%	0.40%	0.03%	—	—	—
Cambrian United	—	—	0.02%	0.09%	0.72%	2.06%	8.69%	32.51%	31.32%	21.60%	2.55%	0.42%	0.02%	—	—	—
Llandudno	—	—	—	—	0.12%	0.53%	2.68%	17.79%	29.53%	41.20%	6.35%	1.53%	0.26%	0.01%	—	—
Briton Ferry Llansawel	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.20%	1.03%	5.26%	36.55%	33.41%	20.26%	2.96%	0.29%	0.04%
Haverfordwest County	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.17%	1.81%	17.91%	28.39%	40.85%	9.11%	1.55%	0.19%
Flint Town United	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.09%	0.98%	4.97%	32.80%	32.10%	24.70%	3.66%	0.58%	0.11%
Ammanford	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	0.72%	3.03%	10.22%	54.32%	23.96%	7.70%
Trefelin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.06%	0.62%	2.73%	20.93%	46.37%	29.29%
Holywell Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.10%	0.93%	9.01%	27.25%	62.67%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Relegated
Airbus UK	100%	—
Barry Town United	100%	—
Caernarfon Town	100%	—
Cambrian United	100%	—
Cardiff Metropolitan	100%	—
Colwyn Bay	100%	—
Connahs Quay Nomads	100%	—
Penybont	100%	—
The New Saints	100%	—
Llandudno	99.99%	0.01%
Flint Town United	98.28%	1.72%
Briton Ferry Llansawel	97.57%	2.43%
Haverfordwest County	94.71%	5.29%
Ammanford	56.38%	43.62%
Trefelin	33.17%	66.83%
Holywell Town	19.90%	80.10%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2026-07-31	Cambrian United	W 2-1	41.4	945	910	56.69%	15.40%	27.91%	+0.70	+19.8	3
2026-07-31	@ Barry Town United	L 1-2	41.4	910	945	27.91%	15.40%	56.69%	-0.70	-19.8	0
2026-07-31	Ammanford	W 2-1	44.1	876	910	47.80%	15.46%	36.74%	+0.25	+25.2	3
2026-07-31	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 1-2	44.1	910	876	36.74%	15.46%	47.80%	-0.25	-25.2	0
2026-07-31	Trefelin	W 2-0	36.7	894	910	50.25%	15.45%	34.30%	+0.37	+47.5	3
2026-07-31	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-2	36.7	910	894	34.30%	15.45%	50.25%	-0.37	-47.5	0
2026-07-31	Flint Town United	W 3-2	46.0	864	825	57.22%	15.39%	27.38%	+0.73	+18.5	3
2026-07-31	@ Llandudno	L 2-3	46.0	825	864	27.38%	15.39%	57.22%	-0.73	-18.5	0
2026-08-01	Holywell Town	W 6-1	37.7	843	886	46.56%	15.46%	37.97%	+0.20	+100.3	3
2026-08-01	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 1-6	37.7	886	843	37.97%	15.46%	46.56%	-0.20	-100.3	0
2026-08-01	Airbus UK	L 0-1	50.0	905	709	71.78%	15.05%	13.17%	+1.74	-49.7	0
2026-08-01	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	50.0	709	905	13.17%	15.05%	71.78%	-1.74	+49.7	3
2026-08-02	Caernarfon Town	L 1-2	50.9	987	928	59.41%	15.37%	25.22%	+0.85	-38.7	0
2026-08-02	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	50.9	928	987	25.22%	15.37%	59.41%	-0.85	+38.7	3
2026-08-02	The New Saints	D 0-0	51.4	860	1058	25.99%	15.38%	58.64%	-0.81	+6.0	1
2026-08-02	@ Penybont	D 0-0	51.4	1058	860	58.64%	15.38%	25.99%	+0.81	-6.0	1
2026-08-07	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-2	34.7	759	943	27.58%	15.40%	57.02%	-0.72	-39.2	3
2026-08-07	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	34.7	943	759	57.02%	15.40%	27.58%	+0.72	+39.2	6
2026-08-07	Colwyn Bay	D 2-2	59.9	885	941	44.67%	15.47%	39.86%	+0.11	-0.6	1
2026-08-07	@ Ammanford	D 2-2	59.9	941	885	39.86%	15.47%	44.67%	-0.11	+0.6	4
2026-08-07	Penybont	L 1-2	52.2	967	866	63.92%	15.29%	20.79%	+1.13	-41.6	3
2026-08-07	@ Caernarfon Town	W 2-1	52.2	866	967	20.79%	15.29%	63.92%	-1.13	+41.6	4
2026-08-07	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	55.1	890	901	50.95%	15.45%	33.60%	+0.41	-2.8	1
2026-08-07	@ Cambrian United	D 1-1	55.1	901	890	33.60%	15.45%	50.95%	-0.41	+2.8	4
2026-08-07	Barry Town United	L 2-3	47.0	807	965	30.80%	15.43%	53.77%	-0.55	-20.5	0
2026-08-07	@ Flint Town United	W 3-2	47.0	965	807	53.77%	15.43%	30.80%	+0.55	+20.5	6
2026-08-07	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-3	40.3	785	948	30.22%	15.42%	54.36%	-0.58	-36.8	0
2026-08-07	@ Holywell Town	W 3-1	40.3	948	785	54.36%	15.42%	30.22%	+0.58	+36.8	3
2026-08-07	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	30.2	1052	855	71.89%	15.05%	13.06%	+1.75	+19.7	4
2026-08-07	@ The New Saints	L 0-2	30.2	855	1052	13.06%	15.05%	71.89%	-1.75	-19.7	0
2026-08-07	Llandudno	L 0-4	38.3	863	883	49.68%	15.45%	34.87%	+0.34	-124.0	0
2026-08-07	@ Trefelin	W 4-0	38.3	883	863	34.87%	15.45%	49.68%	-0.34	+124.0	6
2026-08-14	Ammanford	W 2-0	42.8	719	884	29.93%	15.42%	54.65%	-0.59	+71.4	6
2026-08-14	@ Airbus UK	L 0-2	42.8	884	719	54.65%	15.42%	29.93%	+0.59	-71.4	1
2026-08-14	Flint Town United	W 1-0	34.8	887	786	63.93%	15.29%	20.78%	+1.13	+16.1	4
2026-08-14	@ Cambrian United	L 0-1	34.8	786	887	20.78%	15.29%	63.93%	-1.13	-16.1	0
2026-08-14	Trefelin	W 6-0	26.0	985	738	74.94%	14.89%	10.17%	+2.07	+43.2	6
2026-08-14	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-6	26.0	738	985	10.17%	14.89%	74.94%	-2.07	-43.2	0
2026-08-14	Penybont	L 0-3	37.3	835	907	42.44%	15.47%	42.09%	+0.01	-82.7	0
2026-08-14	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	37.3	907	835	42.09%	15.47%	42.44%	-0.01	+82.7	7
2026-08-14	Holywell Town	W 3-1	33.9	1007	749	75.59%	14.84%	9.57%	+2.15	+12.7	9
2026-08-14	@ Llandudno	L 1-3	33.9	749	1007	9.57%	14.84%	75.59%	-2.15	-12.7	0
2026-08-14	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 1-0	33.1	1072	904	69.77%	15.13%	15.09%	+1.56	+12.0	7
2026-08-14	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	33.1	904	1072	15.09%	15.13%	69.77%	-1.56	-12.0	4
2026-08-15	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	38.2	985	982	52.73%	15.43%	31.84%	+0.49	+23.6	9
2026-08-15	@ Barry Town United	L 0-1	38.2	982	985	31.84%	15.43%	52.73%	-0.49	-23.6	6
2026-08-15	Colwyn Bay	W 3-0	34.8	926	942	50.20%	15.45%	34.35%	+0.37	+69.0	6
2026-08-15	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	34.8	942	926	34.35%	15.45%	50.20%	-0.37	-69.0	4
2026-08-21	The New Saints	L 0-5	33.5	959	1084	35.04%	15.45%	49.51%	-0.34	-113.1	6
2026-08-21	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	W 5-0	33.5	1084	959	49.51%	15.45%	35.04%	+0.34	+113.1	10
2026-08-21	Airbus UK	W 1-0	35.4	873	791	62.00%	15.33%	22.67%	+1.01	+17.5	7
2026-08-21	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	35.4	791	873	22.67%	15.33%	62.00%	-1.01	-17.5	6
2026-08-21	Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	39.3	770	892	35.51%	15.46%	49.03%	-0.31	-26.0	0
2026-08-21	@ Flint Town United	W 1-0	39.3	892	770	49.03%	15.46%	35.51%	+0.31	+26.0	7
2026-08-21	Cambrian United	L 0-3	34.0	752	904	31.67%	15.43%	52.90%	-0.50	-64.3	0
2026-08-21	@ Haverfordwest County	W 3-0	34.0	904	752	52.90%	15.43%	31.67%	+0.50	+64.3	7
2026-08-21	Barry Town United	L 1-3	36.7	736	1009	18.53%	15.24%	66.24%	-1.29	-23.7	0
2026-08-21	@ Holywell Town	W 3-1	36.7	1009	736	66.24%	15.24%	18.53%	+1.29	+23.7	12
2026-08-21	Llandudno	W 2-1	43.9	990	1020	48.45%	15.46%	36.10%	+0.28	+24.8	10
2026-08-21	@ Penybont	L 1-2	43.9	1020	990	36.10%	15.46%	48.45%	-0.28	-24.8	9
2026-08-21	Caernarfon Town	L 0-2	31.2	695	995	16.31%	15.17%	68.51%	-1.46	-24.3	0
2026-08-21	@ Trefelin	W 2-0	31.2	995	695	68.51%	15.17%	16.31%	+1.46	+24.3	9
2026-08-22	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-2	33.6	813	1028	24.14%	15.35%	60.51%	-0.92	-34.8	1
2026-08-22	@ Ammanford	W 2-0	33.6	1028	813	60.51%	15.35%	24.14%	+0.92	+34.8	9
2026-08-28	Airbus UK	W 4-2	38.0	1032	773	75.64%	14.84%	9.52%	+2.15	+11.3	15
2026-08-28	@ Barry Town United	L 2-4	38.0	773	1032	9.52%	14.84%	75.64%	-2.15	-11.3	6
2026-08-28	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-0	37.2	846	918	42.46%	15.47%	42.07%	+0.01	+82.1	9
2026-08-28	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-3	37.2	918	846	42.07%	15.47%	42.46%	-0.01	-82.1	7
2026-08-28	Cambrian United	W 3-0	30.9	1063	968	63.30%	15.30%	21.39%	+1.09	+45.3	12
2026-08-28	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	30.9	968	1063	21.39%	15.30%	63.30%	-1.09	-45.3	7
2026-08-28	Caernarfon Town	L 3-6	38.7	712	1019	15.74%	15.16%	69.11%	-1.51	-23.1	0
2026-08-28	@ Holywell Town	W 6-3	38.7	1019	712	69.11%	15.16%	15.74%	+1.51	+23.1	12
2026-08-28	Haverfordwest County	W 2-0	28.4	995	688	77.92%	14.65%	7.42%	+2.46	+11.4	12
2026-08-28	@ Llandudno	L 0-2	28.4	688	995	7.42%	14.65%	77.92%	-2.46	-11.4	0
2026-08-28	Flint Town United	W 1-0	31.1	1015	744	76.25%	14.80%	8.96%	+2.23	+7.3	13
2026-08-28	@ Penybont	L 0-1	31.1	744	1015	8.96%	14.80%	76.25%	-2.23	-7.3	0
2026-08-28	Colwyn Bay	W 5-1	29.5	1197	890	77.92%	14.65%	7.42%	+2.46	+18.1	13
2026-08-28	@ The New Saints	L 1-5	29.5	890	1197	7.42%	14.65%	77.92%	-2.46	-18.1	7
2026-08-28	Ammanford	D 1-1	55.1	671	778	37.52%	15.46%	47.02%	-0.22	+1.5	1
2026-08-28	@ Trefelin	D 1-1	55.1	778	671	47.02%	15.46%	37.52%	+0.22	-1.5	2
2026-08-31	Holywell Town	W 6-2	36.9	762	689	61.00%	15.34%	23.66%	+0.95	+45.9	9
2026-08-31	@ Airbus UK	L 2-6	36.9	689	762	23.66%	15.34%	61.00%	-0.95	-45.9	0
2026-08-31	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-5	32.5	777	928	31.66%	15.43%	52.91%	-0.50	-103.6	2
2026-08-31	@ Ammanford	W 5-0	32.5	928	777	52.91%	15.43%	31.66%	+0.50	+103.5	12
2026-08-31	Barry Town United	L 1-4	36.7	836	1044	24.90%	15.36%	59.73%	-0.87	-43.9	7
2026-08-31	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 4-1	36.7	1044	836	59.73%	15.36%	24.90%	+0.87	+43.9	18
2026-08-31	The New Saints	L 2-3	46.5	1042	1215	28.93%	15.41%	55.66%	-0.64	-19.4	12
2026-08-31	@ Caernarfon Town	W 3-2	46.5	1215	1042	55.66%	15.41%	28.93%	+0.64	+19.4	16
2026-08-31	Penybont	D 2-2	59.9	923	1022	38.54%	15.46%	46.00%	-0.17	+0.9	8
2026-08-31	@ Cambrian United	D 2-2	59.9	1022	923	46.00%	15.46%	38.54%	+0.17	-0.9	14
2026-08-31	Llandudno	W 2-0	41.6	872	1006	33.89%	15.45%	50.67%	-0.39	+66.6	10
2026-08-31	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-2	41.6	1006	872	50.67%	15.45%	33.89%	+0.39	-66.5	12
2026-08-31	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-2	36.3	737	1108	11.38%	14.96%	73.66%	-1.93	-8.6	0
2026-08-31	@ Flint Town United	W 2-1	36.3	1108	737	73.66%	14.96%	11.38%	+1.93	+8.6	15
2026-08-31	Trefelin	W 2-1	42.5	677	672	52.90%	15.43%	31.66%	+0.50	+22.1	3
2026-08-31	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-2	42.5	672	677	31.66%	15.43%	52.90%	-0.50	-22.1	1
2026-09-04	Airbus UK	L 0-2	41.5	792	808	50.25%	15.45%	34.30%	+0.37	-66.1	7
2026-09-04	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 2-0	41.5	808	792	34.30%	15.45%	50.25%	-0.37	+66.1	12
2026-09-04	Flint Town United	W 3-0	26.7	1023	728	77.38%	14.70%	7.92%	+2.38	+17.7	15
2026-09-04	@ Caernarfon Town	L 0-3	26.7	728	1023	7.92%	14.70%	77.38%	-2.38	-17.7	0
2026-09-04	Cambrian United	D 2-2	60.0	1031	923	64.56%	15.28%	20.16%	+1.17	-5.5	13
2026-09-04	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	60.0	923	1031	20.16%	15.28%	64.56%	-1.17	+5.6	9
2026-09-04	Haverfordwest County	D 1-1	55.5	1117	699	81.77%	14.14%	4.09%	+3.18	-13.8	16
2026-09-04	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	D 1-1	55.5	699	1117	4.09%	14.14%	81.77%	-3.18	+13.8	4
2026-09-04	Trefelin	D 1-1	55.1	643	650	51.44%	15.44%	33.11%	+0.43	-2.9	1
2026-09-04	@ Holywell Town	D 1-1	55.1	650	643	33.11%	15.44%	51.44%	-0.43	+2.9	2
2026-09-04	Ammanford	W 2-0	29.0	940	673	76.03%	14.81%	9.16%	+2.20	+14.0	15
2026-09-04	@ Llandudno	L 0-2	29.0	673	940	9.16%	14.81%	76.03%	-2.20	-14.0	2
2026-09-05	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	35.4	1021	939	62.03%	15.33%	22.64%	+1.01	+17.4	17
2026-09-05	@ Penybont	L 0-1	35.4	939	1021	22.64%	15.33%	62.03%	-1.01	-17.4	10
2026-09-05	Barry Town United	W 1-0	33.7	1235	1088	68.07%	15.19%	16.74%	+1.43	+13.2	19
2026-09-05	@ The New Saints	L 0-1	33.7	1088	1235	16.74%	15.19%	68.07%	-1.43	-13.2	18
2026-09-11	The New Saints	L 0-2	29.7	874	1248	11.24%	14.95%	73.81%	-1.94	-17.1	12
2026-09-11	@ Airbus UK	W 2-0	29.7	1248	874	73.81%	14.95%	11.24%	+1.94	+17.1	22
2026-09-11	Caernarfon Town	L 0-5	26.1	659	1040	10.82%	14.93%	74.25%	-1.99	-38.6	2
2026-09-11	@ Ammanford	W 5-0	26.1	1040	659	74.25%	14.93%	10.82%	+1.99	+38.6	18
2026-09-11	Llandudno	W 4-1	34.9	1074	954	65.76%	15.25%	18.99%	+1.25	+34.3	21
2026-09-11	@ Barry Town United	L 1-4	34.9	954	1074	18.99%	15.25%	65.76%	-1.25	-34.3	15
2026-09-11	Holywell Town	W 2-1	35.3	929	640	77.11%	14.73%	8.17%	+2.34	+6.3	12
2026-09-11	@ Cambrian United	L 1-2	35.3	640	929	8.17%	14.73%	77.11%	-2.34	-6.3	1
2026-09-11	Cardiff Metropolitan	D 1-1	55.2	710	1026	15.08%	15.13%	69.79%	-1.56	+9.4	1
2026-09-11	@ Flint Town United	D 1-1	55.2	1026	710	69.79%	15.13%	15.08%	+1.56	-9.4	14
2026-09-11	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-1	41.4	713	726	50.66%	15.45%	33.90%	+0.39	+40.7	7
2026-09-11	@ Haverfordwest County	L 1-3	41.4	726	713	33.90%	15.45%	50.66%	-0.39	-40.7	7
2026-09-11	Penybont	L 0-1	31.6	653	1039	10.59%	14.91%	74.50%	-2.02	-8.6	2
2026-09-11	@ Trefelin	W 1-0	31.6	1039	653	74.50%	14.91%	10.59%	+2.02	+8.6	20
2026-09-12	Connahs Quay Nomads	W 2-1	50.1	921	1103	27.92%	15.40%	56.68%	-0.70	+37.0	13
2026-09-12	@ Colwyn Bay	L 1-2	50.1	1103	921	56.68%	15.40%	27.92%	+0.70	-36.9	16
2026-09-15	Ammanford	D 2-2	60.4	1109	620	83.45%	13.76%	2.79%	+3.63	-10.7	22
2026-09-15	@ Barry Town United	D 2-2	60.4	620	1109	2.79%	13.76%	83.45%	-3.63	+10.7	3
2026-09-15	Airbus UK	W 3-0	28.1	1066	857	72.69%	15.01%	12.29%	+1.83	+27.1	19
2026-09-15	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-3	28.1	857	1066	12.29%	15.01%	72.69%	-1.83	-27.1	12
2026-09-15	Colwyn Bay	L 0-5	27.2	634	958	14.43%	15.11%	70.46%	-1.62	-50.7	1
2026-09-15	@ Holywell Town	W 5-0	27.2	958	634	70.46%	15.11%	14.43%	+1.62	+50.7	16
2026-09-15	Caernarfon Town	D 1-1	55.1	919	1079	30.62%	15.43%	53.95%	-0.56	+3.8	16
2026-09-15	@ Llandudno	D 1-1	55.1	1079	919	53.95%	15.43%	30.62%	+0.56	-3.8	19
2026-09-15	Briton Ferry Llansawel	W 3-2	39.1	1047	685	80.07%	14.41%	5.52%	+2.82	+4.1	23
2026-09-15	@ Penybont	L 2-3	39.1	685	1047	5.52%	14.41%	80.07%	-2.82	-4.1	7
2026-09-15	Flint Town United	W 5-0	23.0	1265	720	84.53%	13.43%	2.04%	+4.00	+7.3	25
2026-09-15	@ The New Saints	L 0-5	23.0	720	1265	2.04%	13.43%	84.53%	-4.00	-7.3	1
2026-09-15	Cambrian United	L 0-4	28.4	645	935	17.02%	15.20%	67.79%	-1.40	-48.0	2
2026-09-15	@ Trefelin	W 4-0	28.4	935	645	67.79%	15.20%	17.02%	+1.40	+48.0	15
2026-09-18	Flint Town United	W 4-1	35.0	830	712	65.45%	15.26%	19.29%	+1.23	+34.8	15
2026-09-18	@ Airbus UK	L 1-4	35.0	712	830	19.29%	15.26%	65.45%	-1.23	-34.8	1
2026-09-18	Penybont	L 1-5	30.0	631	1051	8.84%	14.79%	76.37%	-2.24	-21.5	3
2026-09-18	@ Ammanford	W 5-1	30.0	1051	631	76.37%	14.79%	8.84%	+2.24	+21.5	26
2026-09-18	Trefelin	D 1-1	55.1	681	597	62.20%	15.32%	22.47%	+1.02	-6.6	8
2026-09-18	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	55.1	597	681	22.47%	15.32%	62.20%	-1.02	+6.6	3
2026-09-18	Cambrian United	W 9-1	31.3	1075	983	62.99%	15.31%	21.70%	+1.07	+94.9	22
2026-09-18	@ Caernarfon Town	L 1-9	31.3	983	1075	21.70%	15.31%	62.99%	-1.07	-94.9	15
2026-09-18	Barry Town United	W 5-2	45.9	1009	1098	40.07%	15.47%	44.47%	-0.10	+62.9	19
2026-09-18	@ Colwyn Bay	L 2-5	45.9	1098	1009	44.47%	15.47%	40.07%	+0.10	-62.9	22
2026-09-18	Cardiff Metropolitan	W 1-0	35.6	1093	1016	61.43%	15.34%	23.23%	+0.97	+17.8	22
2026-09-18	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	35.6	1016	1093	23.23%	15.34%	61.43%	-0.97	-17.8	14
2026-09-18	Holywell Town	W 1-0	33.0	753	583	69.91%	15.13%	14.96%	+1.57	+11.9	10
2026-09-18	@ Haverfordwest County	L 0-1	33.0	583	753	14.96%	15.13%	69.91%	-1.57	-11.9	1
2026-09-19	Llandudno	W 2-1	34.6	1272	923	79.60%	14.47%	5.93%	+2.73	+4.6	28
2026-09-19	@ The New Saints	L 1-2	34.6	923	1272	5.93%	14.47%	79.60%	-2.73	-4.6	16
2026-09-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	L 1-4	41.9	1035	1111	41.91%	15.47%	42.63%	-0.02	-69.0	22
2026-09-26	@ Barry Town United	W 4-1	41.9	1111	1035	42.63%	15.47%	41.91%	+0.02	+69.0	25
2026-09-26	Llandudno	W 4-3	51.9	888	919	48.33%	15.46%	36.21%	+0.28	+23.0	18
2026-09-26	@ Cambrian United	L 3-4	51.9	919	888	36.21%	15.46%	48.33%	-0.28	-23.0	16
2026-09-26	Caernarfon Town	D 2-2	59.9	999	1170	29.14%	15.41%	55.45%	-0.63	+3.2	15
2026-09-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	D 2-2	59.9	1170	999	55.45%	15.41%	29.14%	+0.63	-3.2	23
2026-09-26	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	30.6	1072	765	77.92%	14.65%	7.42%	+2.46	+6.1	22
2026-09-26	@ Colwyn Bay	L 0-1	30.6	765	1072	7.42%	14.65%	77.92%	-2.46	-6.1	10
2026-09-26	Ammanford	W 3-0	31.8	678	610	60.48%	15.35%	24.16%	+0.91	+50.6	4
2026-09-26	@ Flint Town United	L 0-3	31.8	610	678	24.16%	15.35%	60.48%	-0.91	-50.6	3
2026-09-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	D 1-1	55.1	571	674	38.11%	15.46%	46.43%	-0.19	+1.3	2
2026-09-26	@ Holywell Town	D 1-1	55.1	674	571	46.43%	15.46%	38.11%	+0.19	-1.3	9
2026-09-26	Airbus UK	W 2-1	36.6	1073	864	72.63%	15.01%	12.35%	+1.82	+9.4	29
2026-09-26	@ Penybont	L 1-2	36.6	864	1073	12.35%	15.01%	72.63%	-1.82	-9.4	15
2026-09-26	The New Saints	L 1-3	31.3	603	1277	2.26%	13.54%	84.20%	-3.88	-3.0	3
2026-09-26	@ Trefelin	W 3-1	31.3	1277	603	84.20%	13.54%	2.26%	+3.88	+3.0	31
2026-09-29	Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	31.6	1002	759	74.72%	14.90%	10.38%	+2.04	+8.4	18
2026-09-29	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	31.6	759	1002	10.38%	14.90%	74.72%	-2.04	-8.4	10
2026-10-03	Trefelin	W 3-0	27.3	855	600	75.40%	14.86%	9.74%	+2.12	+21.6	18
2026-10-03	@ Airbus UK	L 0-3	27.3	600	855	9.74%	14.86%	75.40%	-2.12	-21.7	3
2026-10-03	Holywell Town	W 2-1	43.3	559	573	50.56%	15.45%	33.99%	+0.39	+23.6	6
2026-10-03	@ Ammanford	L 1-2	43.3	573	559	33.99%	15.45%	50.56%	-0.39	-23.6	2
2026-10-03	Colwyn Bay	W 1-0	51.1	673	1078	9.58%	14.84%	75.58%	-2.14	+52.4	12
2026-10-03	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	L 0-1	51.1	1078	673	75.58%	14.84%	9.58%	+2.14	-52.4	22
2026-10-03	Barry Town United	L 0-1	50.2	1167	966	72.13%	15.04%	12.84%	+1.77	-49.9	23
2026-10-03	@ Caernarfon Town	W 1-0	50.2	966	1167	12.84%	15.04%	72.13%	-1.77	+49.9	25
2026-10-03	Penybont	W 1-0	35.0	1180	1082	63.58%	15.30%	21.12%	+1.11	+16.4	28
2026-10-03	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	L 0-1	35.0	1082	1180	21.12%	15.30%	63.58%	-1.11	-16.4	29
2026-10-03	Flint Town United	L 0-1	45.2	751	728	55.20%	15.42%	29.38%	+0.62	-38.2	10
2026-10-03	@ Haverfordwest County	W 1-0	45.2	728	751	29.38%	15.42%	55.20%	-0.62	+38.2	7
2026-10-03	Cardiff Metropolitan	L 0-1	39.6	896	1010	36.50%	15.46%	48.04%	-0.27	-26.6	16
2026-10-03	@ Llandudno	W 1-0	39.6	1010	896	48.04%	15.46%	36.50%	+0.27	+26.6	21
2026-10-03	Cambrian United	W 9-0	25.3	1280	911	80.28%	14.38%	5.34%	+2.86	+33.8	34
2026-10-03	@ The New Saints	L 0-9	25.3	911	1280	5.34%	14.38%	80.28%	-2.86	-33.8	18

Upcoming Games

Remaining games on the team's schedule

Date	Opponent	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Excitement
2026-10-09	Connahs Quay Nomads	725	1196	6.77%	14.58%	78.65%	-2.57	23.7
2026-10-09	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1196	725	78.65%	14.58%	6.77%	+2.57	23.7
2026-10-09	Ammanford	878	583	77.40%	14.70%	7.90%	+2.38	26.9
2026-10-09	@ Cambrian United	583	878	7.90%	14.70%	77.40%	-2.38	26.9
2026-10-09	Trefelin	1037	579	82.78%	13.93%	3.29%	+3.44	18.3
2026-10-09	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	579	1037	3.29%	13.93%	82.78%	-3.44	18.3
2026-10-09	Colwyn Bay	766	1026	19.76%	15.27%	64.97%	-1.20	33.6
2026-10-09	@ Flint Town United	1026	766	64.97%	15.27%	19.76%	+1.20	33.6
2026-10-09	Caernarfon Town	713	1117	9.61%	14.85%	75.54%	-2.14	28.1
2026-10-09	@ Haverfordwest County	1117	713	75.54%	14.85%	9.61%	+2.14	28.1
2026-10-09	The New Saints	549	1314	1.37%	12.98%	85.64%	-4.47	22.0
2026-10-09	@ Holywell Town	1314	549	85.64%	12.98%	1.37%	+4.47	22.0
2026-10-09	Airbus UK	869	877	51.36%	15.44%	33.20%	+0.43	52.6
2026-10-09	@ Llandudno	877	869	33.20%	15.44%	51.36%	-0.43	52.6
2026-10-09	Barry Town United	1066	1016	58.47%	15.38%	26.15%	+0.80	52.2
2026-10-09	@ Penybont	1016	1066	26.15%	15.38%	58.47%	-0.80	52.2
2026-10-23	Haverfordwest County	1016	713	77.78%	14.67%	7.55%	+2.44	27.7
2026-10-23	@ Barry Town United	713	1016	7.55%	14.67%	77.78%	-2.44	27.7
2026-10-23	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1117	725	81.01%	14.27%	4.72%	+3.01	27.7
2026-10-23	@ Caernarfon Town	725	1117	4.72%	14.27%	81.01%	-3.01	27.7
2026-10-23	Airbus UK	878	877	52.47%	15.44%	32.10%	+0.48	52.7
2026-10-23	@ Cambrian United	877	878	32.10%	15.44%	52.47%	-0.48	52.7
2026-10-23	Cardiff Metropolitan	1026	1037	50.91%	15.45%	33.64%	+0.40	53.2
2026-10-23	@ Colwyn Bay	1037	1026	33.64%	15.45%	50.91%	-0.40	53.2
2026-10-23	Llandudno	1196	869	78.78%	14.57%	6.65%	+2.59	31.7
2026-10-23	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	869	1196	6.65%	14.57%	78.78%	-2.59	31.7
2026-10-23	Penybont	549	1066	5.31%	14.38%	80.32%	-2.87	20.7
2026-10-23	@ Holywell Town	1066	549	80.32%	14.38%	5.31%	+2.87	20.7
2026-10-23	Ammanford	1314	583	87.04%	12.23%	0.73%	+5.20	20.1
2026-10-23	@ The New Saints	583	1314	0.73%	12.23%	87.04%	-5.20	20.1
2026-10-23	Flint Town United	579	766	27.19%	15.39%	57.41%	-0.74	34.8
2026-10-23	@ Trefelin	766	579	57.41%	15.39%	27.19%	+0.74	34.8
2026-10-30	Caernarfon Town	877	1117	21.57%	15.31%	63.12%	-1.08	43.5
2026-10-30	@ Airbus UK	1117	877	63.12%	15.31%	21.57%	+1.08	43.5
2026-10-30	Haverfordwest County	583	713	34.41%	15.45%	50.13%	-0.37	38.9
2026-10-30	@ Ammanford	713	583	50.13%	15.45%	34.41%	+0.37	38.9
2026-10-30	Trefelin	1016	579	82.28%	14.04%	3.68%	+3.30	20.3
2026-10-30	@ Barry Town United	579	1016	3.68%	14.04%	82.28%	-3.30	20.3
2026-10-30	Llandudno	725	869	32.63%	15.44%	51.93%	-0.45	42.4
2026-10-30	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	869	725	51.93%	15.44%	32.63%	+0.45	42.4
2026-10-30	Penybont	1037	1066	48.48%	15.46%	36.06%	+0.29	53.1
2026-10-30	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1066	1037	36.06%	15.46%	48.48%	-0.29	53.1
2026-10-30	Cambrian United	1026	878	68.15%	15.19%	16.66%	+1.43	42.4
2026-10-30	@ Colwyn Bay	878	1026	16.66%	15.19%	68.15%	-1.43	42.4
2026-10-30	Holywell Town	766	549	73.20%	14.99%	11.81%	+1.88	30.6
2026-10-30	@ Flint Town United	549	766	11.81%	14.99%	73.20%	-1.88	30.6
2026-10-30	Connahs Quay Nomads	1314	1196	65.45%	15.26%	19.29%	+1.23	51.9
2026-10-30	@ The New Saints	1196	1314	19.29%	15.26%	65.45%	-1.23	51.9
2026-11-06	Briton Ferry Llansawel	583	725	32.72%	15.44%	51.84%	-0.45	38.9
2026-11-06	@ Ammanford	725	583	51.84%	15.44%	32.72%	+0.45	38.9
2026-11-06	Barry Town United	878	1016	33.31%	15.44%	51.25%	-0.42	48.6
2026-11-06	@ Cambrian United	1016	878	51.25%	15.44%	33.31%	+0.42	48.6
2026-11-06	Flint Town United	1196	766	82.09%	14.08%	3.83%	+3.25	23.1
2026-11-06	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	766	1196	3.83%	14.08%	82.09%	-3.25	23.1
2026-11-06	Cardiff Metropolitan	713	1037	14.44%	15.11%	70.45%	-1.62	28.2
2026-11-06	@ Haverfordwest County	1037	713	70.45%	15.11%	14.44%	+1.62	28.2
2026-11-06	Airbus UK	549	877	14.20%	15.10%	70.71%	-1.64	29.3
2026-11-06	@ Holywell Town	877	549	70.71%	15.10%	14.20%	+1.64	29.3
2026-11-06	The New Saints	869	1314	7.79%	14.69%	77.52%	-2.40	31.2
2026-11-06	@ Llandudno	1314	869	77.52%	14.69%	7.79%	+2.40	31.2
2026-11-06	Caernarfon Town	1066	1117	45.47%	15.47%	39.07%	+0.15	56.3
2026-11-06	@ Penybont	1117	1066	39.07%	15.47%	45.47%	-0.15	56.3
2026-11-06	Colwyn Bay	579	1026	7.69%	14.68%	77.63%	-2.41	20.2
2026-11-06	@ Trefelin	1026	579	77.63%	14.68%	7.69%	+2.41	20.2
2026-11-20	Colwyn Bay	877	1026	31.96%	15.44%	52.60%	-0.49	45.7
2026-11-20	@ Airbus UK	1026	877	52.60%	15.44%	31.96%	+0.49	45.7
2026-11-20	Holywell Town	725	549	70.38%	15.11%	14.51%	+1.61	33.9
2026-11-20	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	549	725	14.51%	15.11%	70.38%	-1.61	33.9
2026-11-20	Connahs Quay Nomads	1117	1196	41.40%	15.47%	43.14%	-0.04	56.3
2026-11-20	@ Caernarfon Town	1196	1117	43.14%	15.47%	41.40%	+0.04	56.3
2026-11-20	Ammanford	1037	583	82.69%	13.95%	3.36%	+3.41	19.7
2026-11-20	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	583	1037	3.36%	13.95%	82.69%	-3.41	19.7
2026-11-20	Cambrian United	766	878	36.96%	15.46%	47.57%	-0.24	44.5
2026-11-20	@ Flint Town United	878	766	47.57%	15.46%	36.96%	+0.24	44.5
2026-11-20	Barry Town United	869	1016	32.20%	15.44%	52.36%	-0.47	48.0
2026-11-20	@ Llandudno	1016	869	52.36%	15.44%	32.20%	+0.47	48.0
2026-11-20	Haverfordwest County	1066	713	79.76%	14.45%	5.79%	+2.76	23.1
2026-11-20	@ Penybont	713	1066	5.79%	14.45%	79.76%	-2.76	23.1
2026-11-20	Trefelin	1314	579	87.08%	12.20%	0.72%	+5.23	18.7
2026-11-20	@ The New Saints	579	1314	0.72%	12.20%	87.08%	-5.23	18.7
2026-11-27	Caernarfon Town	1016	1117	38.37%	15.46%	46.17%	-0.18	54.9
2026-11-27	@ Barry Town United	1117	1016	46.17%	15.46%	38.37%	+0.18	54.9
2026-11-27	Penybont	725	1066	13.31%	15.06%	71.63%	-1.73	28.1
2026-11-27	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1066	725	71.63%	15.06%	13.31%	+1.73	28.1
2026-11-27	Trefelin	878	579	77.58%	14.69%	7.74%	+2.41	25.3
2026-11-27	@ Cambrian United	579	878	7.74%	14.69%	77.58%	-2.41	25.3
2026-11-27	Airbus UK	1037	877	69.12%	15.16%	15.72%	+1.51	42.1
2026-11-27	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	877	1037	15.72%	15.16%	69.12%	-1.51	42.1
2026-11-27	Ammanford	1026	583	82.42%	14.01%	3.57%	+3.34	19.4
2026-11-27	@ Colwyn Bay	583	1026	3.57%	14.01%	82.42%	-3.34	19.4
2026-11-27	The New Saints	766	1314	4.50%	14.23%	81.27%	-3.06	24.9
2026-11-27	@ Flint Town United	1314	766	81.27%	14.23%	4.50%	+3.06	24.9
2026-11-27	Connahs Quay Nomads	713	1196	6.32%	14.53%	79.15%	-2.65	21.8
2026-11-27	@ Haverfordwest County	1196	713	79.15%	14.53%	6.32%	+2.65	21.8
2026-11-27	Llandudno	549	869	14.75%	15.12%	70.13%	-1.59	29.8
2026-11-27	@ Holywell Town	869	549	70.13%	15.12%	14.75%	+1.59	29.8
2026-12-05	Briton Ferry Llansawel	877	725	68.43%	15.18%	16.39%	+1.45	38.4
2026-12-05	@ Airbus UK	725	877	16.39%	15.18%	68.43%	-1.45	38.4
2026-12-05	Flint Town United	583	766	27.65%	15.40%	56.95%	-0.71	35.9
2026-12-05	@ Ammanford	766	583	56.95%	15.40%	27.65%	+0.71	35.9
2026-12-05	Colwyn Bay	1016	1026	51.11%	15.45%	33.45%	+0.41	54.7
2026-12-05	@ Barry Town United	1026	1016	33.45%	15.45%	51.11%	-0.41	54.7
2026-12-05	Haverfordwest County	1117	713	81.39%	14.21%	4.40%	+3.09	25.7
2026-12-05	@ Caernarfon Town	713	1117	4.40%	14.21%	81.39%	-3.09	25.7
2026-12-05	Holywell Town	1196	549	86.04%	12.79%	1.16%	+4.66	18.9
2026-12-05	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	549	1196	1.16%	12.79%	86.04%	-4.66	18.9
2026-12-05	Cambrian United	869	878	51.25%	15.44%	33.30%	+0.42	52.5
2026-12-05	@ Llandudno	878	869	33.30%	15.44%	51.25%	-0.42	52.5
2026-12-05	Penybont	1314	1066	75.02%	14.88%	10.10%	+2.08	40.2
2026-12-05	@ The New Saints	1066	1314	10.10%	14.88%	75.02%	-2.08	40.2
2026-12-05	Cardiff Metropolitan	579	1037	7.25%	14.64%	78.11%	-2.49	20.3
2026-12-05	@ Trefelin	1037	579	78.11%	14.64%	7.25%	+2.49	20.3
2026-12-18	Llandudno	877	869	53.35%	15.43%	31.22%	+0.52	52.3
2026-12-18	@ Airbus UK	869	877	31.22%	15.43%	53.35%	-0.52	52.3
2026-12-18	Barry Town United	583	1016	8.26%	14.74%	77.00%	-2.33	24.1
2026-12-18	@ Ammanford	1016	583	77.00%	14.74%	8.26%	+2.33	24.1
2026-12-18	Caernarfon Town	725	1117	10.27%	14.89%	74.83%	-2.06	30.2
2026-12-18	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1117	725	74.83%	14.89%	10.27%	+2.06	30.2
2026-12-18	Haverfordwest County	878	713	69.53%	15.14%	15.33%	+1.54	36.0
2026-12-18	@ Cambrian United	713	878	15.33%	15.14%	69.53%	-1.54	36.0
2026-12-18	Connahs Quay Nomads	1037	1196	30.58%	15.43%	54.00%	-0.56	48.1
2026-12-18	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1196	1037	54.00%	15.43%	30.58%	+0.56	48.1
2026-12-18	The New Saints	1026	1314	17.22%	15.20%	67.58%	-1.39	40.5
2026-12-18	@ Colwyn Bay	1314	1026	67.58%	15.20%	17.22%	+1.39	40.5
2026-12-18	Trefelin	766	579	71.23%	15.08%	13.70%	+1.69	31.1
2026-12-18	@ Flint Town United	579	766	13.70%	15.08%	71.23%	-1.69	31.1
2026-12-18	Holywell Town	1066	549	84.01%	13.60%	2.39%	+3.82	19.0
2026-12-18	@ Penybont	549	1066	2.39%	13.60%	84.01%	-3.82	19.0
2026-12-26	Penybont	1016	1066	45.61%	15.47%	38.93%	+0.15	53.7
2026-12-26	@ Barry Town United	1066	1016	38.93%	15.47%	45.61%	-0.15	53.7
2026-12-26	Airbus UK	1117	877	74.58%	14.91%	10.51%	+2.03	39.9
2026-12-26	@ Caernarfon Town	877	1117	10.51%	14.91%	74.58%	-2.03	39.9
2026-12-26	Cardiff Metropolitan	878	1037	30.66%	15.43%	53.92%	-0.55	45.7
2026-12-26	@ Cambrian United	1037	878	53.92%	15.43%	30.66%	+0.55	45.7
2026-12-26	The New Saints	1196	1314	36.13%	15.46%	48.42%	-0.28	54.9
2026-12-26	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1314	1196	48.42%	15.46%	36.13%	+0.28	54.9
2026-12-26	Ammanford	713	583	66.61%	15.23%	18.16%	+1.32	35.8
2026-12-26	@ Haverfordwest County	583	713	18.16%	15.23%	66.61%	-1.32	35.8
2026-12-26	Flint Town United	549	766	23.92%	15.35%	60.73%	-0.93	34.3
2026-12-26	@ Holywell Town	766	549	60.73%	15.35%	23.92%	+0.93	34.3
2026-12-26	Colwyn Bay	869	1026	30.98%	15.43%	53.59%	-0.54	45.1
2026-12-26	@ Llandudno	1026	869	53.59%	15.43%	30.98%	+0.54	45.1
2026-12-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	579	725	32.22%	15.44%	52.34%	-0.47	37.8
2026-12-26	@ Trefelin	725	579	52.34%	15.44%	32.22%	+0.47	37.8
2026-12-31	Barry Town United	1037	1016	54.99%	15.42%	29.60%	+0.61	54.4
2026-12-31	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1016	1037	29.60%	15.42%	54.99%	-0.61	54.4
2026-12-31	Trefelin	583	579	52.87%	15.43%	31.70%	+0.50	44.1
2026-12-31	@ Ammanford	579	583	31.70%	15.43%	52.87%	-0.50	44.1
2027-01-01	Connahs Quay Nomads	877	1196	14.76%	15.12%	70.11%	-1.59	35.3
2027-01-01	@ Airbus UK	1196	877	70.11%	15.12%	14.76%	+1.59	35.3
2027-01-01	Haverfordwest County	725	713	54.01%	15.43%	30.57%	+0.56	44.4
2027-01-01	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	713	725	30.57%	15.43%	54.01%	-0.56	44.4
2027-01-01	Caernarfon Town	1026	1117	39.72%	15.47%	44.81%	-0.12	54.1
2027-01-01	@ Colwyn Bay	1117	1026	44.81%	15.47%	39.72%	+0.12	54.1
2027-01-01	Llandudno	766	869	38.14%	15.46%	46.39%	-0.19	45.0
2027-01-01	@ Flint Town United	869	766	46.39%	15.46%	38.14%	+0.19	45.0
2027-01-01	Cambrian United	1066	878	71.26%	15.08%	13.66%	+1.69	39.5
2027-01-01	@ Penybont	878	1066	13.66%	15.08%	71.26%	-1.69	39.5
2027-01-01	Holywell Town	1314	549	87.39%	12.00%	0.61%	+5.42	21.2
2027-01-01	@ The New Saints	549	1314	0.61%	12.00%	87.39%	-5.42	21.2
2027-01-22	Flint Town United	1016	766	75.11%	14.88%	10.01%	+2.09	32.9
2027-01-22	@ Barry Town United	766	1016	10.01%	14.88%	75.11%	-2.09	32.9
2027-01-22	Cardiff Metropolitan	1117	1037	61.79%	15.33%	22.88%	+0.99	52.9
2027-01-22	@ Caernarfon Town	1037	1117	22.88%	15.33%	61.79%	-0.99	52.9
2027-01-22	Colwyn Bay	878	1026	32.06%	15.44%	52.50%	-0.48	45.7
2027-01-22	@ Cambrian United	1026	878	52.50%	15.44%	32.06%	+0.48	45.7
2027-01-22	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1196	725	83.08%	13.86%	3.06%	+3.52	21.7
2027-01-22	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	725	1196	3.06%	13.86%	83.08%	-3.52	21.7
2027-01-22	The New Saints	713	1314	3.36%	13.95%	82.69%	-3.41	22.3
2027-01-22	@ Haverfordwest County	1314	713	82.69%	13.95%	3.36%	+3.41	22.3
2027-01-22	Ammanford	549	583	47.92%	15.46%	36.62%	+0.26	45.1
2027-01-22	@ Holywell Town	583	549	36.62%	15.46%	47.92%	-0.26	45.1
2027-01-22	Penybont	869	1066	26.16%	15.38%	58.46%	-0.80	42.5
2027-01-22	@ Llandudno	1066	869	58.46%	15.38%	26.16%	+0.80	42.5
2027-01-22	Airbus UK	579	877	16.40%	15.18%	68.42%	-1.45	28.7
2027-01-22	@ Trefelin	877	579	68.42%	15.18%	16.40%	+1.45	28.7
2027-02-05	Barry Town United	877	1016	33.21%	15.44%	51.35%	-0.42	48.5
2027-02-05	@ Airbus UK	1016	877	51.35%	15.44%	33.21%	+0.42	48.5
2027-02-05	Llandudno	583	869	17.35%	15.21%	67.44%	-1.38	30.8
2027-02-05	@ Ammanford	869	583	67.44%	15.21%	17.35%	+1.38	30.8
2027-02-05	Cambrian United	725	878	31.53%	15.43%	53.03%	-0.51	41.8
2027-02-05	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	878	725	53.03%	15.43%	31.53%	+0.51	41.8
2027-02-05	Trefelin	1117	579	84.41%	13.47%	2.12%	+3.95	20.7
2027-02-05	@ Caernarfon Town	579	1117	2.12%	13.47%	84.41%	-3.95	20.7
2027-02-05	Holywell Town	1026	549	83.19%	13.83%	2.98%	+3.56	19.7
2027-02-05	@ Colwyn Bay	549	1026	2.98%	13.83%	83.19%	-3.56	19.7
2027-02-05	Haverfordwest County	766	713	58.92%	15.37%	25.71%	+0.82	41.8
2027-02-05	@ Flint Town United	713	766	25.71%	15.37%	58.92%	-0.82	41.8
2027-02-05	Connahs Quay Nomads	1066	1196	34.34%	15.45%	50.21%	-0.37	49.8
2027-02-05	@ Penybont	1196	1066	50.21%	15.45%	34.34%	+0.37	49.8
2027-02-05	Cardiff Metropolitan	1314	1037	76.55%	14.77%	8.68%	+2.27	38.3
2027-02-05	@ The New Saints	1037	1314	8.68%	14.77%	76.55%	-2.27	38.3
2027-02-12	Penybont	877	1066	27.04%	15.39%	57.57%	-0.75	43.1
2027-02-12	@ Airbus UK	1066	877	57.57%	15.39%	27.04%	+0.75	43.1
2027-02-12	The New Saints	583	1314	1.65%	13.19%	85.16%	-4.25	21.0
2027-02-12	@ Ammanford	1314	583	85.16%	13.19%	1.65%	+4.25	21.0
2027-02-12	Holywell Town	1016	549	82.98%	13.88%	3.14%	+3.49	22.2
2027-02-12	@ Barry Town United	549	1016	3.14%	13.88%	82.98%	-3.49	22.2
2027-02-12	Caernarfon Town	878	1117	21.65%	15.31%	63.04%	-1.07	43.6
2027-02-12	@ Cambrian United	1117	878	63.04%	15.31%	21.65%	+1.07	43.6
2027-02-12	Flint Town United	1037	766	76.21%	14.80%	8.99%	+2.22	29.9
2027-02-12	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	766	1037	8.99%	14.80%	76.21%	-2.22	29.9
2027-02-12	Colwyn Bay	1196	1026	69.97%	15.13%	14.90%	+1.58	43.0
2027-02-12	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1026	1196	14.90%	15.13%	69.97%	-1.58	43.0
2027-02-12	Briton Ferry Llansawel	869	725	67.79%	15.20%	17.02%	+1.40	39.0
2027-02-12	@ Llandudno	725	869	17.02%	15.20%	67.79%	-1.40	39.0
2027-02-12	Haverfordwest County	579	713	33.90%	15.45%	50.65%	-0.39	38.0
2027-02-12	@ Trefelin	713	579	50.65%	15.45%	33.90%	+0.39	38.0
2027-02-19	Cardiff Metropolitan	725	1037	15.39%	15.14%	69.47%	-1.54	30.4
2027-02-19	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1037	725	69.47%	15.14%	15.39%	+1.54	30.4
2027-02-19	Ammanford	1117	583	84.34%	13.50%	2.17%	+3.93	22.3
2027-02-19	@ Caernarfon Town	583	1117	2.17%	13.50%	84.34%	-3.93	22.3
2027-02-19	Flint Town United	1026	766	75.63%	14.84%	9.53%	+2.15	30.0
2027-02-19	@ Colwyn Bay	766	1026	9.53%	14.84%	75.63%	-2.15	30.0
2027-02-19	Barry Town United	1196	1016	70.69%	15.10%	14.21%	+1.64	44.1
2027-02-19	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1016	1196	14.21%	15.10%	70.69%	-1.64	44.1
2027-02-19	Llandudno	713	869	30.98%	15.43%	53.59%	-0.54	40.1
2027-02-19	@ Haverfordwest County	869	713	53.59%	15.43%	30.98%	+0.54	40.1
2027-02-19	Cambrian United	549	878	14.14%	15.10%	70.76%	-1.65	29.3
2027-02-19	@ Holywell Town	878	549	70.76%	15.10%	14.14%	+1.65	29.3
2027-02-19	Trefelin	1066	579	83.43%	13.77%	2.80%	+3.63	17.1
2027-02-19	@ Penybont	579	1066	2.80%	13.77%	83.43%	-3.63	17.1
2027-02-19	Airbus UK	1314	877	82.27%	14.04%	3.69%	+3.30	29.3
2027-02-19	@ The New Saints	877	1314	3.69%	14.04%	82.27%	-3.30	29.3
2027-02-26	Haverfordwest County	877	713	69.46%	15.14%	15.39%	+1.54	36.0
2027-02-26	@ Airbus UK	713	877	15.39%	15.14%	69.46%	-1.54	36.0
2027-02-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1016	725	77.19%	14.72%	8.09%	+2.35	30.0
2027-02-26	@ Barry Town United	725	1016	8.09%	14.72%	77.19%	-2.35	30.0
2027-02-26	The New Saints	878	1314	8.14%	14.73%	77.13%	-2.34	31.6
2027-02-26	@ Cambrian United	1314	878	77.13%	14.73%	8.14%	+2.34	31.6
2027-02-26	Colwyn Bay	1037	1026	53.78%	15.43%	30.79%	+0.55	52.9
2027-02-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1026	1037	30.79%	15.43%	53.78%	-0.55	52.9
2027-02-26	Caernarfon Town	766	1117	12.66%	15.03%	72.31%	-1.79	32.6
2027-02-26	@ Flint Town United	1117	766	72.31%	15.03%	12.66%	+1.79	32.6
2027-02-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	869	1196	14.21%	15.10%	70.69%	-1.64	34.8
2027-02-26	@ Llandudno	1196	869	70.69%	15.10%	14.21%	+1.64	34.8
2027-02-26	Ammanford	1066	583	83.34%	13.79%	2.86%	+3.60	18.5
2027-02-26	@ Penybont	583	1066	2.86%	13.79%	83.34%	-3.60	18.5
2027-02-26	Holywell Town	579	549	56.05%	15.41%	28.54%	+0.67	43.4
2027-02-26	@ Trefelin	549	579	28.54%	15.41%	56.05%	-0.67	43.4
2027-03-12	Cambrian United	583	878	16.65%	15.19%	68.16%	-1.43	30.2
2027-03-12	@ Ammanford	878	583	68.16%	15.19%	16.65%	+1.43	30.2
2027-03-12	The New Saints	725	1314	3.60%	14.02%	82.38%	-3.33	23.9
2027-03-12	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1314	725	82.38%	14.02%	3.60%	+3.33	23.9
2027-03-12	Llandudno	1117	869	75.02%	14.88%	10.10%	+2.08	39.3
2027-03-12	@ Caernarfon Town	869	1117	10.10%	14.88%	75.02%	-2.08	39.3
2027-03-12	Penybont	1026	1066	46.95%	15.46%	37.58%	+0.21	52.0
2027-03-12	@ Colwyn Bay	1066	1026	37.58%	15.46%	46.95%	-0.21	52.0
2027-03-12	Airbus UK	766	877	37.07%	15.46%	47.46%	-0.24	44.6
2027-03-12	@ Flint Town United	877	766	47.46%	15.46%	37.07%	+0.24	44.6
2027-03-12	Barry Town United	713	1016	15.99%	15.16%	68.85%	-1.49	31.0
2027-03-12	@ Haverfordwest County	1016	713	68.85%	15.16%	15.99%	+1.49	31.0
2027-03-12	Cardiff Metropolitan	549	1037	6.20%	14.51%	79.29%	-2.68	22.0
2027-03-12	@ Holywell Town	1037	549	79.29%	14.51%	6.20%	+2.68	22.0
2027-03-12	Connahs Quay Nomads	579	1196	3.07%	13.86%	83.07%	-3.52	17.5
2027-03-12	@ Trefelin	1196	579	83.07%	13.86%	3.07%	+3.52	17.5
2027-03-19	Cambrian United	877	878	52.26%	15.44%	32.30%	+0.47	52.7
2027-03-19	@ Airbus UK	878	877	32.30%	15.44%	52.26%	-0.47	52.7
2027-03-19	The New Saints	1016	1314	16.44%	15.18%	68.38%	-1.45	40.9
2027-03-19	@ Barry Town United	1314	1016	68.38%	15.18%	16.44%	+1.45	40.9
2027-03-19	Flint Town United	725	766	46.85%	15.46%	37.68%	+0.21	44.9
2027-03-19	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	766	725	37.68%	15.46%	46.85%	-0.21	44.9
2027-03-19	Holywell Town	1117	549	84.90%	13.30%	1.80%	+4.15	22.9
2027-03-19	@ Caernarfon Town	549	1117	1.80%	13.30%	84.90%	-4.15	22.9
2027-03-19	Ammanford	1196	583	85.59%	13.01%	1.40%	+4.44	17.8
2027-03-19	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	583	1196	1.40%	13.01%	85.59%	-4.44	17.8
2027-03-19	Colwyn Bay	713	1026	15.25%	15.14%	69.61%	-1.55	28.3
2027-03-19	@ Haverfordwest County	1026	713	69.61%	15.14%	15.25%	+1.55	28.3
2027-03-19	Trefelin	869	579	77.19%	14.72%	8.09%	+2.35	25.9
2027-03-19	@ Llandudno	579	869	8.09%	14.72%	77.19%	-2.35	25.9
2027-03-19	Cardiff Metropolitan	1066	1037	56.02%	15.41%	28.57%	+0.66	52.2
2027-03-19	@ Penybont	1037	1066	28.57%	15.41%	56.02%	-0.66	52.2
2027-03-26	Airbus UK	583	877	16.72%	15.19%	68.10%	-1.43	30.3
2027-03-26	@ Ammanford	877	583	68.10%	15.19%	16.72%	+1.43	30.3
2027-03-26	Connahs Quay Nomads	878	1196	14.82%	15.12%	70.05%	-1.59	35.4
2027-03-26	@ Cambrian United	1196	878	70.05%	15.12%	14.82%	+1.59	35.4
2027-03-26	Llandudno	1037	869	69.73%	15.13%	15.14%	+1.56	41.5
2027-03-26	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	869	1037	15.14%	15.13%	69.73%	-1.56	41.5
2027-03-26	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1026	725	77.63%	14.68%	7.69%	+2.42	27.2
2027-03-26	@ Colwyn Bay	725	1026	7.69%	14.68%	77.63%	-2.42	27.2
2027-03-26	Penybont	766	1066	16.30%	15.17%	68.53%	-1.46	30.9
2027-03-26	@ Flint Town United	1066	766	68.53%	15.17%	16.30%	+1.46	30.9
2027-03-26	Haverfordwest County	549	713	30.13%	15.42%	54.45%	-0.58	37.4
2027-03-26	@ Holywell Town	713	549	54.45%	15.42%	30.13%	+0.58	37.4
2027-03-26	Caernarfon Town	1314	1117	71.85%	15.05%	13.10%	+1.75	46.3
2027-03-26	@ The New Saints	1117	1314	13.10%	15.05%	71.85%	-1.75	46.3
2027-03-26	Barry Town United	579	1016	8.09%	14.72%	77.19%	-2.35	22.5
2027-03-26	@ Trefelin	1016	579	77.19%	14.72%	8.09%	+2.35	22.5

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2026-10-03	9.58%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	673	1	Colwyn Bay	1078	0
2	2026-10-03	12.84%	Barry Town United	966	1	@ Caernarfon Town	1167	0
3	2026-08-01	13.17%	Airbus UK	709	1	@ Haverfordwest County	905	0
4	2026-08-07	20.79%	Penybont	866	2	@ Caernarfon Town	967	1
5	2026-08-02	25.22%	Caernarfon Town	928	2	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	987	1
6	2026-09-12	27.92%	@ Colwyn Bay	921	2	Connahs Quay Nomads	1103	1
7	2026-10-03	29.38%	Flint Town United	728	1	@ Haverfordwest County	751	0
8	2026-08-14	29.93%	@ Airbus UK	719	2	Ammanford	884	0
9	2026-08-31	33.89%	@ Colwyn Bay	872	2	Llandudno	1006	0
10	2026-09-04	34.30%	Airbus UK	808	2	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	792	0
11	2026-08-07	34.87%	Llandudno	883	4	@ Trefelin	863	0
12	2026-09-18	40.07%	@ Colwyn Bay	1009	5	Barry Town United	1098	2
13	2026-08-14	42.09%	Penybont	907	3	@ Haverfordwest County	835	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-08-07	124.04	Llandudno	4	883	34.87%	@ Trefelin	0	863	49.68%	15.45%
2	2026-08-21	113.08	The New Saints	5	1084	49.51%	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	0	959	35.04%	15.45%
3	2026-08-31	103.55	Cardiff Metropolitan	5	928	52.91%	@ Ammanford	0	777	31.66%	15.43%
4	2026-08-01	100.35	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	6	843	46.56%	Holywell Town	1	886	37.97%	15.46%
5	2026-09-18	94.88	@ Caernarfon Town	9	1075	62.99%	Cambrian United	1	983	21.70%	15.31%
6	2026-08-14	82.74	Penybont	3	907	42.09%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	835	42.44%	15.47%
7	2026-08-28	82.13	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	3	846	42.46%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	918	42.07%	15.47%
8	2026-08-14	71.37	@ Airbus UK	2	719	29.93%	Ammanford	0	884	54.65%	15.42%
9	2026-08-15	69.04	@ Caernarfon Town	3	926	50.20%	Colwyn Bay	0	942	34.35%	15.45%
10	2026-09-26	69.02	Connahs Quay Nomads	4	1111	42.63%	@ Barry Town United	1	1035	41.91%	15.47%
11	2026-08-31	66.55	@ Colwyn Bay	2	872	33.89%	Llandudno	0	1006	50.67%	15.45%
12	2026-09-04	66.06	Airbus UK	2	808	34.30%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	0	792	50.25%	15.45%
13	2026-08-21	64.33	Cambrian United	3	904	52.90%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	752	31.67%	15.43%
14	2026-09-18	62.88	@ Colwyn Bay	5	1009	40.07%	Barry Town United	2	1098	44.47%	15.47%
15	2026-10-03	52.43	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	673	9.58%	Colwyn Bay	0	1078	75.58%	14.84%
16	2026-09-15	50.70	Colwyn Bay	5	958	70.46%	@ Holywell Town	0	634	14.43%	15.11%
17	2026-09-26	50.62	@ Flint Town United	3	678	60.48%	Ammanford	0	610	24.16%	15.35%
18	2026-10-03	49.92	Barry Town United	1	966	12.84%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1167	72.13%	15.04%
19	2026-08-01	49.67	Airbus UK	1	709	13.17%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	905	71.78%	15.05%
20	2026-09-15	48.00	Cambrian United	4	935	67.79%	@ Trefelin	0	645	17.02%	15.20%
21	2026-07-31	47.48	@ Colwyn Bay	2	894	50.25%	Trefelin	0	910	34.30%	15.45%
22	2026-08-31	45.87	@ Airbus UK	6	762	61.00%	Holywell Town	2	689	23.66%	15.34%
23	2026-08-28	45.34	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1063	63.30%	Cambrian United	0	968	21.39%	15.30%
24	2026-08-31	43.86	Barry Town United	4	1044	59.73%	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	836	24.90%	15.36%
25	2026-08-14	43.18	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	6	985	74.94%	Trefelin	0	738	10.17%	14.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-09-15	60.4	@ Barry Town United	2	1109	83.45%	Ammanford	2	620	2.79%	13.76%
2	2026-09-04	60.0	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	1031	64.56%	Cambrian United	2	923	20.16%	15.28%
3	2026-08-07	59.9	@ Ammanford	2	885	44.67%	Colwyn Bay	2	941	39.86%	15.47%
4	2026-08-31	59.9	@ Cambrian United	2	923	38.54%	Penybont	2	1022	46.00%	15.46%
5	2026-09-26	59.9	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	2	999	29.14%	Caernarfon Town	2	1170	55.45%	15.41%
6	2026-09-04	55.5	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1117	81.77%	Haverfordwest County	1	699	4.09%	14.14%
7	2026-09-11	55.2	@ Flint Town United	1	710	15.08%	Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1026	69.79%	15.13%
8	2026-08-07	55.1	@ Cambrian United	1	890	50.95%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	901	33.60%	15.45%
9	2026-08-28	55.1	@ Trefelin	1	671	37.52%	Ammanford	1	778	47.02%	15.46%
10	2026-09-04	55.1	@ Holywell Town	1	643	51.44%	Trefelin	1	650	33.11%	15.44%
11	2026-09-15	55.1	@ Llandudno	1	919	30.62%	Caernarfon Town	1	1079	53.95%	15.43%
12	2026-09-18	55.1	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	681	62.20%	Trefelin	1	597	22.47%	15.32%
13	2026-09-26	55.1	@ Holywell Town	1	571	38.11%	Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	674	46.43%	15.46%
14	2026-08-07	52.2	Penybont	2	866	20.79%	@ Caernarfon Town	1	967	63.92%	15.29%
15	2026-09-26	51.9	@ Cambrian United	4	888	48.33%	Llandudno	3	919	36.21%	15.46%
16	2026-08-02	51.4	@ Penybont	0	860	25.99%	The New Saints	0	1058	58.64%	15.38%
17	2026-10-03	51.1	@ Briton Ferry Llansawel	1	673	9.58%	Colwyn Bay	0	1078	75.58%	14.84%
18	2026-08-02	50.9	Caernarfon Town	2	928	25.22%	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	1	987	59.41%	15.37%
19	2026-10-03	50.2	Barry Town United	1	966	12.84%	@ Caernarfon Town	0	1167	72.13%	15.04%
20	2026-09-12	50.1	@ Colwyn Bay	2	921	27.92%	Connahs Quay Nomads	1	1103	56.68%	15.40%
21	2026-08-01	50.0	Airbus UK	1	709	13.17%	@ Haverfordwest County	0	905	71.78%	15.05%
22	2026-08-07	47.0	Barry Town United	3	965	53.77%	@ Flint Town United	2	807	30.80%	15.43%
23	2026-08-31	46.5	The New Saints	3	1215	55.66%	@ Caernarfon Town	2	1042	28.93%	15.41%
24	2026-07-31	46.0	@ Llandudno	3	864	57.22%	Flint Town United	2	825	27.38%	15.39%
25	2026-09-18	45.9	@ Colwyn Bay	5	1009	40.07%	Barry Town United	2	1098	44.47%	15.47%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2026-09-15	23.0	@ The New Saints	5	1265	84.53%	Flint Town United	0	720	2.04%	13.43%
2	2026-10-03	25.3	@ The New Saints	9	1280	80.28%	Cambrian United	0	911	5.34%	14.38%
3	2026-08-14	26.0	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	6	985	74.94%	Trefelin	0	738	10.17%	14.89%
4	2026-09-11	26.1	Caernarfon Town	5	1040	74.25%	@ Ammanford	0	659	10.82%	14.93%
5	2026-09-04	26.7	@ Caernarfon Town	3	1023	77.38%	Flint Town United	0	728	7.92%	14.70%
6	2026-09-15	27.2	Colwyn Bay	5	958	70.46%	@ Holywell Town	0	634	14.43%	15.11%
7	2026-10-03	27.3	@ Airbus UK	3	855	75.40%	Trefelin	0	600	9.74%	14.86%
8	2026-09-15	28.1	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1066	72.69%	Airbus UK	0	857	12.29%	15.01%
9	2026-08-28	28.4	@ Llandudno	2	995	77.92%	Haverfordwest County	0	688	7.42%	14.65%
10	2026-09-15	28.4	Cambrian United	4	935	67.79%	@ Trefelin	0	645	17.02%	15.20%
11	2026-09-04	29.0	@ Llandudno	2	940	76.03%	Ammanford	0	673	9.16%	14.81%
12	2026-08-28	29.5	@ The New Saints	5	1197	77.92%	Colwyn Bay	1	890	7.42%	14.65%
13	2026-09-11	29.7	The New Saints	2	1248	73.81%	@ Airbus UK	0	874	11.24%	14.95%
14	2026-09-18	30.0	Penybont	5	1051	76.37%	@ Ammanford	1	631	8.84%	14.79%
15	2026-08-07	30.2	@ The New Saints	2	1052	71.89%	Haverfordwest County	0	855	13.06%	15.05%
16	2026-09-26	30.6	@ Colwyn Bay	1	1072	77.92%	Haverfordwest County	0	765	7.42%	14.65%
17	2026-08-28	30.9	@ Connahs Quay Nomads	3	1063	63.30%	Cambrian United	0	968	21.39%	15.30%
18	2026-08-28	31.1	@ Penybont	1	1015	76.25%	Flint Town United	0	744	8.96%	14.80%
19	2026-08-21	31.2	Caernarfon Town	2	995	68.51%	@ Trefelin	0	695	16.31%	15.17%
20	2026-09-18	31.3	@ Caernarfon Town	9	1075	62.99%	Cambrian United	1	983	21.70%	15.31%
21	2026-09-26	31.3	The New Saints	3	1277	84.20%	@ Trefelin	1	603	2.26%	13.54%
22	2026-09-11	31.6	Penybont	1	1039	74.50%	@ Trefelin	0	653	10.59%	14.91%
23	2026-09-29	31.6	@ Cardiff Metropolitan	1	1002	74.72%	Haverfordwest County	0	759	10.38%	14.90%
24	2026-09-26	31.8	@ Flint Town United	3	678	60.48%	Ammanford	0	610	24.16%	15.35%
25	2026-08-31	32.5	Cardiff Metropolitan	5	928	52.91%	@ Ammanford	0	777	31.66%	15.43%