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1950 Prva savezna liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Hajduk Split

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hajduk Split

4.53 points above expected

28 points · 23.47 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Buducnost Titograd

4.12 points below expected

10 points · 14.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hajduk Split 18 10 8 0 28 28 13 +15 23.47 +4.53
2 Partizan 18 12 2 4 26 46 19 +27 24.09 +1.91
3 Red Star Belgrade 18 12 2 4 26 44 18 +26 24.28 +1.72
4 Dinamo Zagreb 18 9 4 5 22 23 17 +6 19.05 +2.95
5 Sarajevo 18 7 3 8 17 30 27 +3 15.27 +1.73
6 Nasa Krila Zemun 18 5 4 9 14 18 29 -11 17.37 -3.37
7 Metalac Beograd 18 4 6 8 14 19 32 -13 14.47 -0.47
8 Lokomotiva Zagreb 18 4 5 9 13 18 28 -10 13.77 -0.77
9 Spartak Subotica 18 3 4 11 10 15 29 -14 14.11 -4.11
10 Buducnost Titograd 18 3 4 11 10 15 44 -29 14.12 -4.12

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hajduk Split 28 23.47 +4.53
2 Dinamo Zagreb 22 19.05 +2.95
3 Partizan 26 24.09 +1.91
4 Sarajevo 17 15.27 +1.73
5 Red Star Belgrade 26 24.28 +1.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Buducnost Titograd 10 14.12 -4.12
2 Spartak Subotica 10 14.11 -4.11
3 Nasa Krila Zemun 14 17.37 -3.37
4 Lokomotiva Zagreb 13 13.77 -0.77
5 Metalac Beograd 14 14.47 -0.47

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Red Star Belgrade 6 Mar 5 – Apr 19 1 in 32
2 Dinamo Zagreb 3 Mar 5 – Mar 19 1 in 13
3 Sarajevo 3 Sep 24 – Oct 15 1 in 10
4 Partizan 4 Apr 16 – Apr 26 1 in 10
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 Mar 29 – Mar 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarajevo 3 Oct 22 – Nov 12 1 in 14
2 Metalac Beograd 4 Sep 16 – Oct 15 1 in 13
3 Buducnost Titograd 3 Mar 19 – Apr 16 1 in 13
4 Red Star Belgrade 2 Oct 22 – Oct 29 1 in 11
5 Nasa Krila Zemun 2 Mar 12 – Mar 19 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hajduk Split 18 Mar 5 – Nov 12 1 in 189
2 Metalac Beograd 5 Apr 20 – Aug 27 1 in 47
3 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 Aug 20 – Sep 24 1 in 15
4 Red Star Belgrade 11 Mar 5 – Aug 26 1 in 12
5 Sarajevo 4 Sep 17 – Oct 15 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Zagreb 8 Mar 29 – Aug 27 1 in 101
2 Spartak Subotica 12 Mar 29 – Oct 22 1 in 33
3 Hajduk Split 3 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 21
4 Nasa Krila Zemun 5 Mar 12 – Apr 20 1 in 11
5 Metalac Beograd 7 Aug 20 – Oct 22 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hajduk Split 1782 28 +12 9 7.5 +1.5
Partizan 1809 26 +14 8 7.7 +0.3
Red Star Belgrade 1785 26 -6 4 6.4 -2.4
Dinamo Zagreb 1699 22 +29 8 5.5 +2.5
Sarajevo 1597 17 +9 4 5.1 -1.1
Nasa Krila Zemun 1584 14 -15 4 4.0 +0.0
Metalac Beograd 1544 14 -14 3 3.7 -0.7
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1525 13 -18 3 3.5 -0.5
Spartak Subotica 1538 10 +10 4 3.5 +0.5
Buducnost Titograd 1524 10 -22 3 3.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BT DZ HS LZ MB NKZ PAR RSB SAR SS
Buducnost Titograd —
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
1.40
0-0-2
3.00
0-1-1
2.82
0-2-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.39
1-0-1
1.31
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.89
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0-0
3.36
 —
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
1.96
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
3.42
1-1-0
3.66
Hajduk Split
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
3.29
 —
1-1-0
4.13
1-1-0
4.11
1-1-0
3.79
0-2-0
2.62
1-1-0
2.67
0-2-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.97
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0-0
2.51
0-1-1
1.90
0-1-1
1.42
 —
1-1-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.31
1-0-1
1.20
0-1-1
1.33
0-0-2
2.54
0-1-1
2.67
Metalac Beograd
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
1.44
0-1-1
2.87
 —
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
1.30
0-0-2
1.54
1-1-0
2.53
0-1-1
2.90
Nasa Krila Zemun
0-2-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.41
0-1-1
1.75
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.08
 —
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
1.67
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
3.25
Partizan
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
3.56
0-2-0
2.89
1-0-1
4.37
1-0-1
4.25
2-0-0
3.80
 —
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
4.24
Red Star Belgrade
1-0-1
4.24
1-0-1
3.53
0-1-1
2.84
1-1-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.87
1-0-1
2.66
 —
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
4.27
Sarajevo
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.10
0-2-0
1.48
2-0-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
1.55
 —
2-0-0
2.84
Spartak Subotica
0-1-1
2.62
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
1.32
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
2.66
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +5.0
Allowed 0.78 -6.7
Differential 0.88 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.33%7.78%3.33%1.67%1.11%28.89%
18.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%1.67%0.56%30.56%
27.78%6.67%6.67%1.11%1.11%1.67%25.00%
33.33%3.33%1.11%———7.78%
41.67%1.67%1.11%———4.44%
5+1.11%0.56%1.67%———3.33%
Total28.89%30.56%25.00%7.78%4.44%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.44 2.20
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%50.00%
1—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%—16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.44 -1.61
SD 0.99 2.48 2.75
CV 1.18 1.01 —
Max 3 10 +2
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
222.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.94 +0.33
SD 0.89 1.00 1.64
CV 0.70 1.06 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
122.22%11.11%————33.33%
211.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total50.00%27.78%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.72 +0.83
SD 1.20 0.83 0.92
CV 0.77 1.14 —
Max 5 2 +3
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%22.22%16.67%—5.56%—50.00%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.56 -0.56
SD 0.84 1.20 1.72
CV 0.84 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
2——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 1.16 1.59 1.74
CV 1.10 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.61 -0.61
SD 0.97 1.58 2.03
CV 0.97 0.98 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
15.56%—5.56%11.11%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.06 +1.50
SD 2.41 1.00 2.71
CV 0.94 0.95 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%—11.11%———22.22%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total44.44%16.67%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.00 +1.44
SD 1.54 1.03 1.95
CV 0.63 1.03 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.50 +0.17
SD 1.68 1.50 2.48
CV 1.01 1.00 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
1—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%38.89%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.61 -0.78
SD 0.92 0.92 1.56
CV 1.11 0.57 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partizan 1809 26 24.09 +1.91 81.0% 16 19 22 24 26 30 32
Red Star Belgrade 1785 26 24.28 +1.72 75.0% 17 18 22 25 26 29 33
Hajduk Split 1782 28 23.47 +4.53 98.0% 16 19 22 23 26 28 30
Dinamo Zagreb 1699 22 19.05 +2.95 83.0% 10 13 17 19 21 25 29
Sarajevo 1597 17 15.27 +1.73 77.0% 8 10 13 15 17 20 24
Nasa Krila Zemun 1584 14 17.37 -3.37 13.0% 10 13 16 17 19 22 24
Metalac Beograd 1544 14 14.47 -0.47 51.0% 6 9 13 14 16 20 22
Spartak Subotica 1538 10 14.11 -4.11 13.0% 4 8 12 14 16 20 21
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1525 13 13.77 -0.77 44.0% 5 8 12 14 16 18 22
Buducnost Titograd 1524 10 14.12 -4.12 13.0% 5 8 12 14 16 19 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 33.5% * Slight Edge: 33.5% to 40% * Clear Edge: 40% to 45.5% * Strong Edge: 45.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
No Edge
47.78%23.33%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
123 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
066.42400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.67 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.54+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 7 * Wide Open: 7 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.09 * Comfortable: 0.09 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
One-Team Race
145710
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Hajduk Split, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.55 * Some Luck: 2.55 to 3.83 * Lucky: 3.83 to 5.1 * Wild Swing: 5.1 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.8 * Off: 1.8 to 2.39 * Way Off: 2.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.91 points
Some Luck
03.198
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.503
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Hajduk Split
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.00%
Nasa Krila Zemun
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.09 * Even: 0.09 to 0.11 * Top-Heavy: 0.11 to 0.16 * Lopsided: 0.16 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.15 * Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.35 * Strong Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Wide Separation: 1.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61% * Slight Edge: 61% to 63.5% * Clear Edge: 63.5% to 67% * Wide Edge: 67% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Strong Edge: 86.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 20.5% * Very Frequent: 20.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Lopsided
00.090.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 117.75
1.86
Wide Separation
0.91.151.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
78%
Wide Edge
50%61%67%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Clear Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Few
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.62 * Notable Separation: 0.62 to 0.69 * Lopsided: 0.69 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Shaky: 18.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Near-Lock
00.470.61
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.48
Very Underconfident
0.3807651.001.61924
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Hajduk Split27.00%26.00%32.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%———
Partizan35.00%28.00%23.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%————
Red Star Belgrade37.00%33.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%—————
Dinamo Zagreb1.00%10.00%17.00%23.00%20.00%9.00%12.00%4.00%1.00%3.00%
Sarajevo—1.00%4.00%13.00%15.00%15.00%12.00%20.00%12.00%8.00%
Nasa Krila Zemun—1.00%5.00%23.00%16.00%23.00%19.00%3.00%8.00%2.00%
Metalac Beograd—1.00%2.00%6.00%5.00%14.00%16.00%19.00%19.00%18.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb——1.00%2.00%4.00%16.00%14.00%22.00%15.00%26.00%
Spartak Subotica——2.00%2.00%14.00%11.00%10.00%20.00%17.00%24.00%
Buducnost Titograd———5.00%10.00%10.00%16.00%12.00%28.00%19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Hajduk Split 100% —
Partizan 100% —
Red Star Belgrade 100% —
Dinamo Zagreb 96.00% 4.00%
Nasa Krila Zemun 90.00% 10.00%
Sarajevo 80.00% 20.00%
Metalac Beograd 63.00% 37.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb 59.00% 41.00%
Spartak Subotica 59.00% 41.00%
Buducnost Titograd 53.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-03-04 Buducnost Titograd W 4-154.9 1571 1595 47.90% 24.66% 27.44%+0.35 +12.1 2
1950-03-04 @ Metalac Beograd L 1-454.9 1595 1571 27.44% 24.66% 47.90%-0.35 -12.1 0
1950-03-05 Partizan W 2-166.9 1661 1776 35.47% 24.63% 39.89%-0.40 +6.6 2
1950-03-05 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-266.9 1776 1661 39.89% 24.63% 35.47%+0.40 -6.6 0
1950-03-05 Sarajevo W 3-047.8 1626 1565 57.42% 23.98% 18.60%+1.04 +10.4 2
1950-03-05 @ Nasa Krila Zemun L 0-347.8 1565 1626 18.60% 23.98% 57.42%-1.04 -10.4 0
1950-03-05 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-050.6 1733 1545 67.97% 21.89% 10.15%+2.07 +2.1 2
1950-03-05 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-150.6 1545 1733 10.15% 21.89% 67.97%-2.07 -2.1 0
1950-03-05 Hajduk Split L 0-157.6 1577 1739 29.31% 24.31% 46.37%-0.78 -5.5 0
1950-03-05 @ Spartak Subotica W 1-057.6 1739 1577 46.37% 24.31% 29.31%+0.78 +5.5 2
1950-03-12 Spartak Subotica W 2-050.3 1583 1571 52.03% 24.46% 23.51%+0.63 +8.7 2
1950-03-12 @ Buducnost Titograd L 0-250.3 1571 1583 23.51% 24.46% 52.03%-0.63 -8.7 0
1950-03-12 Hajduk Split L 0-155.7 1543 1745 24.75% 23.89% 51.36%-1.10 -4.8 0
1950-03-12 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-055.7 1745 1543 51.36% 23.89% 24.75%+1.10 +4.8 4
1950-03-12 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-257.4 1583 1667 39.85% 24.73% 35.41%-0.14 -13.2 2
1950-03-12 @ Metalac Beograd W 2-057.4 1667 1583 35.41% 24.73% 39.85%+0.14 +13.1 4
1950-03-12 Nasa Krila Zemun W 2-158.2 1770 1637 63.83% 22.94% 13.23%+1.62 +2.6 2
1950-03-12 @ Partizan L 1-258.2 1637 1770 13.23% 22.94% 63.83%-1.62 -2.6 2
1950-03-12 Red Star Belgrade L 0-254.0 1554 1735 27.10% 24.13% 48.76%-0.93 -9.7 0
1950-03-12 @ Sarajevo W 2-054.0 1735 1554 48.76% 24.13% 27.10%+0.93 +9.7 4
1950-03-19 Buducnost Titograd W 2-050.4 1681 1591 60.08% 23.62% 16.30%+1.27 +6.4 6
1950-03-19 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-250.4 1591 1681 16.30% 23.62% 60.08%-1.27 -6.3 2
1950-03-19 Metalac Beograd L 2-374.0 1634 1570 57.64% 23.95% 18.41%+1.06 -8.6 2
1950-03-19 @ Nasa Krila Zemun W 3-274.0 1570 1634 18.41% 23.95% 57.64%-1.06 +8.6 4
1950-03-19 Partizan W 3-161.3 1745 1772 47.41% 24.67% 27.92%+0.32 +8.7 6
1950-03-19 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-361.3 1772 1745 27.92% 24.67% 47.41%-0.32 -8.7 2
1950-03-19 Hajduk Split D 1-170.7 1545 1749 24.42% 23.85% 51.73%-1.13 +1.0 1
1950-03-19 @ Sarajevo D 1-170.7 1749 1545 51.73% 23.85% 24.42%+1.13 -1.0 5
1950-03-19 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-155.8 1563 1538 53.54% 24.36% 22.11%+0.74 +4.1 2
1950-03-19 @ Spartak Subotica L 1-255.8 1538 1563 22.11% 24.36% 53.54%-0.74 -4.1 0
1950-03-28 Red Star Belgrade L 2-560.6 1579 1754 27.82% 24.20% 47.98%-0.88 -10.5 4
1950-03-28 @ Metalac Beograd W 5-260.6 1754 1579 47.98% 24.20% 27.82%+0.88 +10.5 8
1950-03-29 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-161.5 1585 1534 56.35% 24.10% 19.55%+0.96 -9.4 2
1950-03-29 @ Buducnost Titograd W 1-061.5 1534 1585 19.55% 24.10% 56.35%-0.96 +9.4 2
1950-03-29 Nasa Krila Zemun D 1-170.9 1687 1625 57.42% 23.98% 18.60%+1.04 -1.5 7
1950-03-29 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 1-170.9 1625 1687 18.60% 23.98% 57.42%-1.04 +1.5 3
1950-03-29 Hajduk Split D 0-067.9 1763 1748 52.47% 24.43% 23.10%+0.66 -1.2 3
1950-03-29 @ Partizan D 0-067.9 1748 1763 23.10% 24.43% 52.47%-0.66 +1.2 6
1950-03-29 Spartak Subotica W 4-047.7 1546 1567 48.17% 24.65% 27.18%+0.37 +18.6 3
1950-03-29 @ Sarajevo L 0-447.7 1567 1546 27.18% 24.65% 48.17%-0.37 -18.6 2
1950-04-02 Sarajevo L 1-263.9 1543 1564 48.21% 24.65% 27.14%+0.37 -7.7 2
1950-04-02 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-163.9 1564 1543 27.14% 24.65% 48.21%-0.37 +7.7 5
1950-04-09 Hajduk Split L 1-365.4 1685 1750 42.58% 24.75% 32.67%+0.02 -12.0 7
1950-04-09 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 3-165.4 1750 1685 32.67% 24.75% 42.58%-0.02 +12.0 8
1950-04-09 Spartak Subotica D 1-166.7 1568 1548 53.04% 24.39% 22.57%+0.70 -1.2 5
1950-04-09 @ Metalac Beograd D 1-166.7 1548 1568 22.57% 24.39% 53.04%-0.70 +1.2 3
1950-04-16 Metalac Beograd W 2-050.3 1536 1567 46.88% 24.69% 28.43%+0.28 +10.2 4
1950-04-16 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-250.3 1567 1536 28.43% 24.69% 46.88%-0.28 -10.1 5
1950-04-16 Hajduk Split L 0-159.4 1627 1762 32.83% 24.53% 42.65%-0.56 -6.0 3
1950-04-16 @ Nasa Krila Zemun W 1-059.4 1762 1627 42.65% 24.53% 32.83%+0.56 +6.0 10
1950-04-16 Buducnost Titograd W 4-046.3 1764 1576 68.00% 21.88% 10.12%+2.08 +7.6 10
1950-04-16 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-446.3 1576 1764 10.12% 21.88% 68.00%-2.08 -7.6 2
1950-04-16 Partizan L 2-560.1 1572 1762 26.02% 24.03% 49.95%-1.01 -9.9 5
1950-04-16 @ Sarajevo W 5-260.1 1762 1572 49.95% 24.03% 26.02%+1.01 +10.0 5
1950-04-16 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-274.6 1549 1673 34.26% 24.59% 41.15%-0.47 +0.2 4
1950-04-16 @ Spartak Subotica D 2-274.6 1673 1549 41.15% 24.59% 34.26%+0.47 -0.2 8
1950-04-19 Dinamo Zagreb W 3-049.9 1772 1673 60.90% 23.49% 15.61%+1.34 +8.9 12
1950-04-19 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-349.9 1673 1772 15.61% 23.49% 60.90%-1.34 -8.9 8
1950-04-20 Buducnost Titograd D 0-064.5 1621 1568 56.56% 24.08% 19.36%+0.97 -1.6 4
1950-04-20 @ Nasa Krila Zemun D 0-064.5 1568 1621 19.36% 24.08% 56.56%-0.97 +1.6 3
1950-04-20 Hajduk Split D 2-276.4 1557 1768 23.80% 23.78% 52.42%-1.17 +0.8 6
1950-04-20 @ Metalac Beograd D 2-276.4 1768 1557 52.42% 23.78% 23.80%+1.17 -0.8 11
1950-04-20 Partizan L 0-155.4 1550 1772 22.57% 23.62% 53.81%-1.27 -4.4 4
1950-04-20 @ Spartak Subotica W 1-055.4 1772 1550 53.81% 23.62% 22.57%+1.27 +4.4 7
1950-04-22 Spartak Subotica W 2-156.1 1619 1545 58.65% 23.82% 17.52%+1.14 +3.4 6
1950-04-22 @ Nasa Krila Zemun L 1-256.1 1545 1619 17.52% 23.82% 58.65%-1.14 -3.4 4
1950-04-22 Sarajevo D 0-062.5 1558 1562 50.24% 24.56% 25.20%+0.51 -1.0 7
1950-04-22 @ Metalac Beograd D 0-062.5 1562 1558 25.20% 24.56% 50.24%-0.51 +1.0 6
1950-04-23 Partizan L 2-462.9 1570 1777 24.17% 23.82% 52.00%-1.15 -6.8 3
1950-04-23 @ Buducnost Titograd W 4-262.9 1777 1570 52.00% 23.82% 24.17%+1.15 +6.8 9
1950-04-23 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-169.5 1664 1546 62.65% 23.18% 14.17%+1.51 -1.9 9
1950-04-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 1-169.5 1546 1664 14.17% 23.18% 62.65%-1.51 +1.9 5
1950-04-23 Hajduk Split D 2-277.5 1781 1767 52.31% 24.44% 23.24%+0.65 -0.8 13
1950-04-23 @ Red Star Belgrade D 2-277.5 1767 1781 23.24% 24.44% 52.31%-0.65 +0.8 12
1950-04-26 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-150.8 1783 1548 71.09% 20.84% 8.06%+2.46 +3.9 11
1950-04-26 @ Partizan L 1-450.8 1548 1783 8.06% 20.84% 71.09%-2.46 -3.9 5
1950-04-27 Red Star Belgrade L 0-158.6 1623 1780 29.97% 24.36% 45.67%-0.74 -5.6 6
1950-04-27 @ Nasa Krila Zemun W 1-058.6 1780 1623 45.67% 24.36% 29.97%+0.74 +5.6 15
1950-04-30 Hajduk Split L 1-261.1 1563 1768 24.39% 23.85% 51.76%-1.13 -4.4 3
1950-04-30 @ Buducnost Titograd W 2-161.1 1768 1563 51.76% 23.85% 24.39%+1.13 +4.4 14
1950-05-01 Nasa Krila Zemun L 0-255.9 1544 1617 41.35% 24.75% 33.91%-0.06 -13.5 5
1950-05-01 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-055.9 1617 1544 33.91% 24.75% 41.35%+0.06 +13.5 8
1950-05-01 Dinamo Zagreb W 1-058.8 1563 1663 37.68% 24.70% 37.62%-0.27 +6.7 8
1950-05-01 @ Sarajevo L 0-158.8 1663 1563 37.62% 24.70% 37.68%+0.27 -6.7 9
1950-05-07 Sarajevo W 2-157.9 1558 1570 49.36% 24.60% 26.04%+0.45 +4.7 5
1950-05-07 @ Buducnost Titograd L 1-257.9 1570 1558 26.04% 24.60% 49.36%-0.45 -4.7 8
1950-05-07 Metalac Beograd L 0-169.3 1787 1557 70.77% 20.96% 8.26%+2.42 -11.6 11
1950-05-07 @ Partizan W 1-069.3 1557 1787 8.26% 20.96% 70.77%-2.42 +11.6 9
1950-05-07 Red Star Belgrade L 1-259.8 1542 1785 20.55% 23.30% 56.15%-1.44 -3.8 4
1950-05-07 @ Spartak Subotica W 2-159.8 1785 1542 56.15% 23.30% 20.55%+1.44 +3.8 17
1950-08-20 Metalac Beograd D 0-062.9 1563 1568 50.08% 24.57% 25.35%+0.50 -1.0 6
1950-08-20 @ Buducnost Titograd D 0-062.9 1568 1563 25.35% 24.57% 50.08%-0.50 +1.0 10
1950-08-20 Spartak Subotica W 2-047.6 1772 1538 71.00% 20.88% 8.12%+2.45 +3.2 16
1950-08-20 @ Hajduk Split L 0-247.6 1538 1772 8.12% 20.88% 71.00%-2.45 -3.2 4
1950-08-20 Red Star Belgrade D 2-276.6 1530 1789 19.17% 23.06% 57.78%-1.57 +1.1 6
1950-08-20 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 2-276.6 1789 1530 57.78% 23.06% 19.17%+1.57 -1.1 18
1950-08-20 Dinamo Zagreb W 2-051.1 1776 1656 62.76% 23.16% 14.08%+1.52 +5.5 13
1950-08-20 @ Partizan L 0-251.1 1656 1776 14.08% 23.16% 62.76%-1.52 -5.5 9
1950-08-20 Nasa Krila Zemun W 3-052.4 1565 1631 42.38% 24.75% 32.87%+0.01 +16.5 10
1950-08-20 @ Sarajevo L 0-352.4 1631 1565 32.87% 24.75% 42.38%-0.01 -16.5 8
1950-08-26 Sarajevo W 4-257.9 1788 1582 69.23% 21.49% 9.28%+2.22 +2.9 20
1950-08-26 @ Red Star Belgrade L 2-457.9 1582 1788 9.28% 21.49% 69.23%-2.22 -2.9 10
1950-08-27 Metalac Beograd D 1-169.5 1650 1569 59.29% 23.74% 16.97%+1.20 -1.6 10
1950-08-27 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 1-169.5 1569 1650 16.97% 23.74% 59.29%-1.20 +1.6 11
1950-08-27 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-171.9 1775 1531 71.60% 20.65% 7.75%+2.53 -2.6 17
1950-08-27 @ Hajduk Split D 1-171.9 1531 1775 7.75% 20.65% 71.60%-2.53 +2.6 7
1950-08-27 Partizan L 1-360.9 1614 1781 28.73% 24.27% 47.00%-0.82 -8.8 8
1950-08-27 @ Nasa Krila Zemun W 3-160.9 1781 1614 47.00% 24.27% 28.73%+0.82 +8.8 15
1950-08-27 Buducnost Titograd D 1-166.0 1535 1562 47.42% 24.67% 27.90%+0.32 -0.7 5
1950-08-27 @ Spartak Subotica D 1-166.0 1562 1535 27.90% 24.67% 47.42%-0.32 +0.7 7
1950-09-16 Spartak Subotica D 1-165.0 1534 1534 50.73% 24.54% 24.73%+0.54 -1.0 8
1950-09-16 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-165.0 1534 1534 24.73% 24.54% 50.73%-0.54 +1.0 6
1950-09-16 Nasa Krila Zemun L 0-160.4 1571 1605 46.52% 24.70% 28.78%+0.26 -7.9 11
1950-09-16 @ Metalac Beograd W 1-060.4 1605 1571 28.78% 24.70% 46.52%-0.26 +7.9 10
1950-09-17 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-159.1 1563 1649 39.58% 24.73% 35.69%-0.16 -6.9 7
1950-09-17 @ Buducnost Titograd W 1-059.1 1649 1563 35.69% 24.73% 39.58%+0.16 +6.9 12
1950-09-17 Sarajevo D 2-277.3 1773 1579 68.39% 21.76% 9.85%+2.12 -1.8 18
1950-09-17 @ Hajduk Split D 2-277.3 1579 1773 9.85% 21.76% 68.39%-2.12 +1.8 11
1950-09-17 Red Star Belgrade W 2-162.8 1790 1791 50.63% 24.54% 24.82%+0.53 +4.5 17
1950-09-17 @ Partizan L 1-262.8 1791 1790 24.82% 24.54% 50.63%-0.53 -4.6 20
1950-09-23 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-259.4 1613 1656 45.49% 24.72% 29.79%+0.20 -14.6 10
1950-09-23 @ Nasa Krila Zemun W 2-059.4 1656 1613 29.79% 24.72% 45.49%-0.20 +14.7 14
1950-09-24 Partizan D 0-068.0 1771 1795 47.86% 24.66% 27.48%+0.35 -0.8 19
1950-09-24 @ Hajduk Split D 0-068.0 1795 1771 27.48% 24.66% 47.86%-0.35 +0.8 18
1950-09-24 Buducnost Titograd W 2-049.5 1533 1556 47.99% 24.66% 27.35%+0.36 +9.8 10
1950-09-24 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-249.5 1556 1533 27.35% 24.66% 47.99%-0.36 -9.8 7
1950-09-24 Metalac Beograd W 3-046.5 1786 1563 70.31% 21.13% 8.56%+2.36 +4.9 22
1950-09-24 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-346.5 1563 1786 8.56% 21.13% 70.31%-2.36 -4.9 11
1950-09-24 Sarajevo L 0-158.2 1535 1580 45.08% 24.73% 30.19%+0.17 -7.7 6
1950-09-24 @ Spartak Subotica W 1-058.2 1580 1535 30.19% 24.73% 45.08%-0.17 +7.7 13
1950-10-01 Nasa Krila Zemun D 2-272.7 1546 1599 44.11% 24.74% 31.15%+0.11 -0.3 8
1950-10-01 @ Buducnost Titograd D 2-272.7 1599 1546 31.15% 24.74% 44.11%-0.11 +0.3 11
1950-10-01 Red Star Belgrade W 1-062.2 1670 1791 34.67% 24.61% 40.73%-0.44 +7.1 16
1950-10-01 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-162.2 1791 1670 40.73% 24.61% 34.67%+0.44 -7.1 22
1950-10-01 Metalac Beograd W 5-254.1 1770 1558 69.58% 21.38% 9.04%+2.27 +3.8 21
1950-10-01 @ Hajduk Split L 2-554.1 1558 1770 9.04% 21.38% 69.58%-2.27 -3.8 11
1950-10-01 Spartak Subotica W 3-045.4 1795 1527 73.03% 20.07% 6.90%+2.72 +3.9 20
1950-10-01 @ Partizan L 0-345.4 1527 1795 6.90% 20.07% 73.03%-2.72 -3.9 6
1950-10-01 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-045.9 1588 1543 55.75% 24.16% 20.09%+0.91 +14.5 15
1950-10-01 @ Sarajevo L 0-445.9 1543 1588 20.09% 24.16% 55.75%-0.91 -14.5 10
1950-10-15 Dinamo Zagreb W 1-054.3 1774 1677 60.75% 23.52% 15.74%+1.33 +3.3 23
1950-10-15 @ Hajduk Split L 0-154.3 1677 1774 15.74% 23.52% 60.75%-1.33 -3.3 16
1950-10-15 Nasa Krila Zemun W 6-047.1 1784 1599 67.78% 21.95% 10.28%+2.05 +11.4 24
1950-10-15 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-647.1 1599 1784 10.28% 21.95% 67.78%-2.05 -11.4 11
1950-10-15 Buducnost Titograd W 6-148.9 1603 1546 56.97% 24.03% 19.00%+1.01 +14.1 17
1950-10-15 @ Sarajevo L 1-648.9 1546 1603 19.00% 24.03% 56.97%-1.01 -14.1 8
1950-10-15 Partizan L 1-455.5 1554 1799 20.41% 23.28% 56.31%-1.45 -9.3 11
1950-10-15 @ Metalac Beograd W 4-155.5 1799 1554 56.31% 23.28% 20.41%+1.45 +9.3 22
1950-10-18 Partizan W 3-169.3 1529 1809 17.37% 22.68% 59.95%-1.74 +16.1 12
1950-10-18 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-369.3 1809 1529 59.95% 22.68% 17.37%+1.74 -16.1 22
1950-10-22 Red Star Belgrade W 3-275.8 1531 1796 18.71% 22.97% 58.33%-1.61 +8.6 10
1950-10-22 @ Buducnost Titograd L 2-375.8 1796 1531 58.33% 22.97% 18.71%+1.61 -8.6 24
1950-10-22 Spartak Subotica W 2-154.9 1674 1523 65.24% 22.62% 12.14%+1.77 +2.4 18
1950-10-22 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-254.9 1523 1674 12.14% 22.62% 65.24%-1.77 -2.4 6
1950-10-22 Nasa Krila Zemun D 0-067.9 1777 1588 68.08% 21.85% 10.06%+2.08 -2.6 24
1950-10-22 @ Hajduk Split D 0-067.9 1588 1777 10.06% 21.85% 68.08%-2.08 +2.6 12
1950-10-22 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-165.8 1545 1545 50.80% 24.53% 24.67%+0.55 -1.0 12
1950-10-22 @ Metalac Beograd D 1-165.8 1545 1545 24.67% 24.53% 50.80%-0.55 +1.0 13
1950-10-22 Sarajevo W 3-154.9 1793 1617 67.12% 22.13% 10.75%+1.97 +3.7 24
1950-10-22 @ Partizan L 1-354.9 1617 1793 10.75% 22.13% 67.12%-1.97 -3.7 17
1950-10-29 Red Star Belgrade W 2-163.2 1775 1787 49.25% 24.61% 26.14%+0.44 +4.7 26
1950-10-29 @ Hajduk Split L 1-263.2 1787 1775 26.14% 24.61% 49.25%-0.44 -4.8 24
1950-10-29 Buducnost Titograd W 10-046.5 1796 1540 72.34% 20.36% 7.30%+2.63 +13.0 26
1950-10-29 @ Partizan L 0-1046.5 1540 1796 7.30% 20.36% 72.34%-2.63 -13.0 10
1950-10-29 Metalac Beograd L 0-163.1 1613 1544 58.14% 23.89% 17.97%+1.10 -9.7 17
1950-10-29 @ Sarajevo W 1-063.1 1544 1613 17.97% 23.89% 58.14%-1.10 +9.7 14
1950-10-29 Nasa Krila Zemun W 3-157.3 1521 1590 41.89% 24.75% 33.36%-0.02 +10.0 8
1950-10-29 @ Spartak Subotica L 1-357.3 1590 1521 33.36% 24.75% 41.89%+0.02 -10.0 12
1950-11-01 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-353.1 1546 1676 33.34% 24.55% 42.11%-0.52 -16.6 13
1950-11-01 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-053.1 1676 1546 42.11% 24.55% 33.34%+0.52 +16.6 20
1950-11-05 Metalac Beograd W 2-049.4 1531 1554 47.96% 24.66% 27.39%+0.35 +9.8 10
1950-11-05 @ Spartak Subotica L 0-249.4 1554 1531 27.39% 24.66% 47.96%-0.35 -9.8 14
1950-11-12 Sarajevo W 2-050.7 1693 1603 60.12% 23.61% 16.26%+1.27 +6.3 22
1950-11-12 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-250.7 1603 1693 16.26% 23.61% 60.12%-1.27 -6.3 17
1950-11-12 Buducnost Titograd W 2-047.2 1779 1527 72.10% 20.45% 7.44%+2.60 +2.9 28
1950-11-12 @ Hajduk Split L 0-247.2 1527 1779 7.44% 20.45% 72.10%-2.60 -2.9 10
1950-11-12 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-155.2 1580 1529 56.40% 24.09% 19.51%+0.96 +3.7 14
1950-11-12 @ Nasa Krila Zemun L 1-255.2 1529 1580 19.51% 24.09% 56.40%-0.96 -3.7 13
1950-11-12 Spartak Subotica W 2-047.6 1782 1541 71.45% 20.71% 7.84%+2.51 +3.1 26
1950-11-12 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-247.6 1541 1782 7.84% 20.71% 71.45%-2.51 -3.1 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-05-07 8.26% Metalac Beograd 1557 1 @ Partizan 1787 0
2 1950-10-18 17.37% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1529 3 Partizan 1809 1
3 1950-10-29 17.97% Metalac Beograd 1544 1 @ Sarajevo 1613 0
4 1950-03-19 18.41% Metalac Beograd 1570 3 @ Nasa Krila Zemun 1634 2
5 1950-10-22 18.71% @ Buducnost Titograd 1531 3 Red Star Belgrade 1796 2
6 1950-03-29 19.55% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1534 1 @ Buducnost Titograd 1585 0
7 1950-04-02 27.14% Sarajevo 1564 2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1543 1
8 1950-09-16 28.78% Nasa Krila Zemun 1605 1 @ Metalac Beograd 1571 0
9 1950-09-23 29.79% Dinamo Zagreb 1656 2 @ Nasa Krila Zemun 1613 0
10 1950-09-24 30.19% Sarajevo 1580 1 @ Spartak Subotica 1535 0
11 1950-04-09 32.67% Hajduk Split 1750 3 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1685 1
12 1950-05-01 33.91% Nasa Krila Zemun 1617 2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1544 0
13 1950-10-01 34.67% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1670 1 Red Star Belgrade 1791 0
14 1950-03-12 35.41% Dinamo Zagreb 1667 2 @ Metalac Beograd 1583 0
15 1950-03-05 35.47% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1661 2 Partizan 1776 1
16 1950-09-17 35.69% Dinamo Zagreb 1649 1 @ Buducnost Titograd 1563 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-03-29 18.58 @ Sarajevo 4 1546 48.17% Spartak Subotica 0 1567 27.18% 24.65%
2 1950-11-01 16.64 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1676 42.11% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1546 33.34% 24.55%
3 1950-08-20 16.50 @ Sarajevo 3 1565 42.38% Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1631 32.87% 24.75%
4 1950-10-18 16.11 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1529 17.37% Partizan 1 1809 59.95% 22.68%
5 1950-09-23 14.65 Dinamo Zagreb 2 1656 29.79% @ Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1613 45.49% 24.72%
6 1950-10-01 14.47 @ Sarajevo 4 1588 55.75% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1543 20.09% 24.16%
7 1950-10-15 14.07 @ Sarajevo 6 1603 56.97% Buducnost Titograd 1 1546 19.00% 24.03%
8 1950-05-01 13.54 Nasa Krila Zemun 2 1617 33.91% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1544 41.35% 24.75%
9 1950-03-12 13.15 Dinamo Zagreb 2 1667 35.41% @ Metalac Beograd 0 1583 39.85% 24.73%
10 1950-10-29 13.00 @ Partizan 10 1796 72.34% Buducnost Titograd 0 1540 7.30% 20.36%
11 1950-03-04 12.08 @ Metalac Beograd 4 1571 47.90% Buducnost Titograd 1 1595 27.44% 24.66%
12 1950-04-09 12.01 Hajduk Split 3 1750 32.67% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1685 42.58% 24.75%
13 1950-05-07 11.61 Metalac Beograd 1 1557 8.26% @ Partizan 0 1787 70.77% 20.96%
14 1950-10-15 11.37 @ Red Star Belgrade 6 1784 67.78% Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1599 10.28% 21.95%
15 1950-03-28 10.51 Red Star Belgrade 5 1754 47.98% @ Metalac Beograd 2 1579 27.82% 24.20%
16 1950-03-05 10.36 @ Nasa Krila Zemun 3 1626 57.42% Sarajevo 0 1565 18.60% 23.98%
17 1950-04-16 10.15 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1536 46.88% Metalac Beograd 0 1567 28.43% 24.69%
18 1950-04-16 9.95 Partizan 5 1762 49.95% @ Sarajevo 2 1572 26.02% 24.03%
19 1950-10-29 9.95 @ Spartak Subotica 3 1521 41.89% Nasa Krila Zemun 1 1590 33.36% 24.75%
20 1950-09-24 9.85 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1533 47.99% Buducnost Titograd 0 1556 27.35% 24.66%
21 1950-11-05 9.85 @ Spartak Subotica 2 1531 47.96% Metalac Beograd 0 1554 27.39% 24.66%
22 1950-03-12 9.70 Red Star Belgrade 2 1735 48.76% @ Sarajevo 0 1554 27.10% 24.13%
23 1950-10-29 9.68 Metalac Beograd 1 1544 17.97% @ Sarajevo 0 1613 58.14% 23.89%
24 1950-03-29 9.40 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1534 19.55% @ Buducnost Titograd 0 1585 56.35% 24.10%
25 1950-10-15 9.32 Partizan 4 1799 56.31% @ Metalac Beograd 1 1554 20.41% 23.28%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-04-23 77.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1781 52.31% Hajduk Split 2 1767 23.24% 24.44%
2 1950-09-17 77.3 @ Hajduk Split 2 1773 68.39% Sarajevo 2 1579 9.85% 21.76%
3 1950-08-20 76.6 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1530 19.17% Red Star Belgrade 2 1789 57.78% 23.06%
4 1950-04-20 76.4 @ Metalac Beograd 2 1557 23.80% Hajduk Split 2 1768 52.42% 23.78%
5 1950-10-22 75.8 @ Buducnost Titograd 3 1531 18.71% Red Star Belgrade 2 1796 58.33% 22.97%
6 1950-04-16 74.6 @ Spartak Subotica 2 1549 34.26% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1673 41.15% 24.59%
7 1950-03-19 74.0 Metalac Beograd 3 1570 18.41% @ Nasa Krila Zemun 2 1634 57.64% 23.95%
8 1950-10-01 72.7 @ Buducnost Titograd 2 1546 44.11% Nasa Krila Zemun 2 1599 31.15% 24.74%
9 1950-08-27 71.9 @ Hajduk Split 1 1775 71.60% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1531 7.75% 20.65%
10 1950-03-29 70.9 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1687 57.42% Nasa Krila Zemun 1 1625 18.60% 23.98%
11 1950-03-19 70.7 @ Sarajevo 1 1545 24.42% Hajduk Split 1 1749 51.73% 23.85%
12 1950-04-23 69.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1664 62.65% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1546 14.17% 23.18%
13 1950-08-27 69.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1650 59.29% Metalac Beograd 1 1569 16.97% 23.74%
14 1950-05-07 69.3 Metalac Beograd 1 1557 8.26% @ Partizan 0 1787 70.77% 20.96%
15 1950-10-18 69.3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1529 17.37% Partizan 1 1809 59.95% 22.68%
16 1950-09-24 68.0 @ Hajduk Split 0 1771 47.86% Partizan 0 1795 27.48% 24.66%
17 1950-03-29 67.9 @ Partizan 0 1763 52.47% Hajduk Split 0 1748 23.10% 24.43%
18 1950-10-22 67.9 @ Hajduk Split 0 1777 68.08% Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1588 10.06% 21.85%
19 1950-03-05 66.9 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1661 35.47% Partizan 1 1776 39.89% 24.63%
20 1950-04-09 66.7 @ Metalac Beograd 1 1568 53.04% Spartak Subotica 1 1548 22.57% 24.39%
21 1950-08-27 66.0 @ Spartak Subotica 1 1535 47.42% Buducnost Titograd 1 1562 27.90% 24.67%
22 1950-10-22 65.8 @ Metalac Beograd 1 1545 50.80% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1545 24.67% 24.53%
23 1950-04-09 65.4 Hajduk Split 3 1750 32.67% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1685 42.58% 24.75%
24 1950-09-16 65.0 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1534 50.73% Spartak Subotica 1 1534 24.73% 24.54%
25 1950-04-20 64.5 @ Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1621 56.56% Buducnost Titograd 0 1568 19.36% 24.08%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-10-01 45.4 @ Partizan 3 1795 73.03% Spartak Subotica 0 1527 6.90% 20.07%
2 1950-10-01 45.9 @ Sarajevo 4 1588 55.75% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1543 20.09% 24.16%
3 1950-04-16 46.3 @ Red Star Belgrade 4 1764 68.00% Buducnost Titograd 0 1576 10.12% 21.88%
4 1950-09-24 46.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 3 1786 70.31% Metalac Beograd 0 1563 8.56% 21.13%
5 1950-10-29 46.5 @ Partizan 10 1796 72.34% Buducnost Titograd 0 1540 7.30% 20.36%
6 1950-10-15 47.1 @ Red Star Belgrade 6 1784 67.78% Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1599 10.28% 21.95%
7 1950-11-12 47.2 @ Hajduk Split 2 1779 72.10% Buducnost Titograd 0 1527 7.44% 20.45%
8 1950-08-20 47.6 @ Hajduk Split 2 1772 71.00% Spartak Subotica 0 1538 8.12% 20.88%
9 1950-11-12 47.6 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1782 71.45% Spartak Subotica 0 1541 7.84% 20.71%
10 1950-03-29 47.7 @ Sarajevo 4 1546 48.17% Spartak Subotica 0 1567 27.18% 24.65%
11 1950-03-05 47.8 @ Nasa Krila Zemun 3 1626 57.42% Sarajevo 0 1565 18.60% 23.98%
12 1950-10-15 48.9 @ Sarajevo 6 1603 56.97% Buducnost Titograd 1 1546 19.00% 24.03%
13 1950-11-05 49.4 @ Spartak Subotica 2 1531 47.96% Metalac Beograd 0 1554 27.39% 24.66%
14 1950-09-24 49.5 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1533 47.99% Buducnost Titograd 0 1556 27.35% 24.66%
15 1950-04-19 49.9 @ Red Star Belgrade 3 1772 60.90% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1673 15.61% 23.49%
16 1950-03-12 50.3 @ Buducnost Titograd 2 1583 52.03% Spartak Subotica 0 1571 23.51% 24.46%
17 1950-04-16 50.3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1536 46.88% Metalac Beograd 0 1567 28.43% 24.69%
18 1950-03-19 50.4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1681 60.08% Buducnost Titograd 0 1591 16.30% 23.62%
19 1950-03-05 50.6 @ Red Star Belgrade 1 1733 67.97% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1545 10.15% 21.89%
20 1950-11-12 50.7 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1693 60.12% Sarajevo 0 1603 16.26% 23.61%
21 1950-04-26 50.8 @ Partizan 4 1783 71.09% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1548 8.06% 20.84%
22 1950-08-20 51.1 @ Partizan 2 1776 62.76% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1656 14.08% 23.16%
23 1950-08-20 52.4 @ Sarajevo 3 1565 42.38% Nasa Krila Zemun 0 1631 32.87% 24.75%
24 1950-11-01 53.1 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1676 42.11% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1546 33.34% 24.55%
25 1950-03-12 54.0 Red Star Belgrade 2 1735 48.76% @ Sarajevo 0 1554 27.10% 24.13%